Just to note, I remember saying that Remain were deploying project fear far too early. The IMF "warning" about Brexit was about two weeks ago, and at the time I was assured that it was the right time and the drip drip effect would outweigh the big bang of doing it later, and getting the information out early would lay the foundation of a remain argument which could refer to these reports. I wonder whether Dodgy Dave will try to tap up these dodgy reports tonight. I think if he does the audience may turn on him.
Isn't there another IMF scare story due next week?
Even if there is, Miss P, how many people do you think will listen to it? Some will of course, but they are, I suspect, mostly likely to be those who have already bought into Project Fear. For the rest, I rather think, that it will be just one more story to skipped over/mentally screened out.
We have already been told that voting to re-join the ranks of independent nation states will bring about financial and economic armageddon, the collapse of of house prices and WW3. Furthermore we have been told this by people who have been proved totally wrong in the past. As a result the polling suggests that the contest has got closer and leave might actually win.
I doubt bringing back the French woman who is currently being prosecuted on charges of dishonesty in her own country to spread another scare story will have much effect.
There's no doubt the last minute heebie geebie bee factor will be enough win it for Remain. Cameron also I suspect will demolish Farage tonight. Leave probably have peaked.
The Archbishop of Canterbury is coming out with some incredibly helpful lines for Remain and damaging for Farage
ABoC: Farage's claim linking migrants to sex attacks is"inexcusable pandering" to prejudice and "legitimising racism"
ROFL yes, that really will turn back the tide of "stuff the establishment".
Old Etonian, scion of posh boys and Archbishop says the plebs must behave from his London palace.
I'm curious about Welby's logic. Presumably, from what he says, racism can be legitimate if endorsed by individuals of sufficient authority - which he implies that Farage is?
The BBC has confirmed it will not be bringing back its much-derided highlights show Wimbledon 2day, instead reverting to its traditional Today at Wimbledon format.
ABoC: Farage's claim linking migrants to sex attacks is"inexcusable pandering" to prejudice and "legitimising racism"
The left are coming hard at Farage on this one. Saint Shami, the Venerable Doreen Lawrence and Ayatollah Warsi too.
Is Farage scaremongering? Undoubtedly. Is it any worse than the scaremongering by Remain? No.
That's horseshit. Most economists from either side agree there's a downside, short term at least, to Leaving. Nobody other than Farage is suggesting gangs of Eastern European rapists are going to be roaming the streets of English towns violating English girls.
yeah but give it a week and Dave and George will catch him up.
Gangs of Leavers roaming the streets?
Why not, we;ve had just about every other sort of bollocks over the last three months.
Feral gangs of bestial kipper fanatics will hump little old ladies poodles in front of them, nobody will have any money and the country will just become a huge foodbank, all our houses will collapse and you can buy a palace for a knee trembler or 20 silk cut.
There's no monopoly on stupid claims in this campaign.
Labour's "suggestion", today, that LEAVING the EU would bring an "end to paid holidays" was still pretty special.
Ive often wondered who actually sees these posters . If it wasnt for PB I wouldnt be aware any of them exist. Presumably it's to keep the twitterati frothing.
Living in a marginal constituency in an election year you see a LOT of posters.
The BBC has confirmed it will not be bringing back its much-derided highlights show Wimbledon 2day, instead reverting to its traditional Today at Wimbledon format.
There's no doubt the last minute heebie geebie bee factor will be enough win it for Remain. Cameron also I suspect will demolish Farage tonight. Leave probably have peaked.
I expect Farage will do very well in the debate. He knows the subject inside out.
For once, I just read something interesting in the Grauniad comments section. A commenter suggested that telling the poor that leaving the EU would make you poor just doesn't work.
Remain started off from the false premises that people a) trust them and b) are persuadable by economic arguments, and have, in blundering along with this poor strategy, made people trust them less and become more impervious to the economic argument.
Poor strategy, dreadful execution.
I'm convinced we're going to see vast swathes of people who would never vote anything other than Labour in the North and East of England, and the South of Wales vote LEAVE.
''For once, I just read something interesting in the Grauniad comments section. A commenter suggested that telling the poor that leaving the EU would make you poor just doesn't work.''
The Archbishop of Canterbury is coming out with some incredibly helpful lines for Remain and damaging for Farage
ABoC: Farage's claim linking migrants to sex attacks is"inexcusable pandering" to prejudice and "legitimising racism"
ROFL yes, that really will turn back the tide of "stuff the establishment".
Old Etonian, scion of posh boys and Archbishop says the plebs must behave from his London palace.
I'm curious about Welby's logic. Presumably, from what he says, racism can be legitimate if endorsed by individuals of sufficient authority - which he implies that Farage is?
The logic of the Church Of England passeth all understanding. I had a big row with my vicar in 1988 when the general synod convinced itself that putting burning tyres full of petrol around peoples' necks was, in some circumstances, an OK thing to do.
On the whole, the CofE has suffered complete moral collapse in the past few decades and beyond being a right-on, progressive organisation has no idea in what it believes.
Another good idea gone wrong. According to the BBC "vehicle tax collected fell £200m after paper discs axed."
This is my chance to say (again): -MOT garages should give out an MOT disc (for insurance) -VED should be axed -Put it on fuel duty - no-one will notice and it will be fair as regards road use/fuel use/size of vehicle -Retrain the VED admin workforce as some sort of banking help centre and repatriate some business from India.
It's all done electronically these days, so there's no need for an MOT dics at all.
But not very successfully if £200m of it is going missing.
It is an interesting example of "nudge" isn't it. I would say you are just as unlikely to get caught not having car tax while driving around, as all enforcement was already being done by number plate recognition and checking things like SORNs databases...but the act of forcing people to get a worthless paper disc made more people pay.
But then if we just put it on petrol, everybody would pay and few people would really think about that they were paying and how much. It would be like VAT, everybody pays it, but few can tell how much they have paid per year.
Exactly. And it's efficient, efficient in people's time, efficient in cutting public administration and payroll.
There's no doubt the last minute heebie geebie bee factor will be enough win it for Remain. Cameron also I suspect will demolish Farage tonight. Leave probably have peaked.
I expect Farage will do very well in the debate. He knows the subject inside out.
Possibly he will but there are risks in knowing the subject inside out. The first is not pitching at the right level for the audience's own knowledge - either patronisingly simply or too technical an complex - and the second is assuming that everyone else is as interested in the subject as he is.
He may well not do that but his task tonight is a very different one from that which he had at the general election debate (in which he became too angry).
The Archbishop of Canterbury is coming out with some incredibly helpful lines for Remain and damaging for Farage
ABoC: Farage's claim linking migrants to sex attacks is"inexcusable pandering" to prejudice and "legitimising racism"
ROFL yes, that really will turn back the tide of "stuff the establishment".
Old Etonian, scion of posh boys and Archbishop says the plebs must behave from his London palace.
I'm curious about Welby's logic. Presumably, from what he says, racism can be legitimate if endorsed by individuals of sufficient authority - which he implies that Farage is?
The logic of the Church Of England passeth all understanding. I had a big row with my vicar in 1988 when the general synod convinced itself that putting burning tyres full of petrol around peoples' necks was, in some circumstances, an OK thing to do.
On the whole, the CofE has suffered complete moral collapse in the past few decades and beyond being a right-on, progressive organisation has no idea in what it believes.
I left it in 2003. The last straw was issuing an apology for slavery.
The Archbishop of Canterbury is coming out with some incredibly helpful lines for Remain and damaging for Farage
ABoC: Farage's claim linking migrants to sex attacks is"inexcusable pandering" to prejudice and "legitimising racism"
The same might have been said about grooming gangs in Rotherham and elsewhere. Telling the truth is a higher value than not saying things just because someone might not like hearing it. One would have thought that the AoC would have understood that point, if nothing else.
Perhaps he needs to be reminded of the following quote:-
"The man who is honest in small things will be honest in great. The man who is dishonest in small things will be dishonest in great."
Personally, I don't particularly like Farage using rape as a reason for leaving the EU. There clearly is a problem with the sexual attitudes of some migrants but that applies to groups who are citizens in our countries as well. Sexual assault did not start with the EU and will not end with our departure. The ability to choose whom we let into the country and our ability to deport those who break our laws are key issues but they require careful thought about how to get the best effective policies to achieve what I would hope we would all want.
For a lawyer you really seem to struggle with the concept of racial stereotyping. Most lawyers I know -and I'm from a family of them- like to take every case on its merit. I always thought it was something to do with their training. A few disclaimers which usually find their way into your later paragraphs doesn't excuse it at all. A basic lesson most learn at school. "Because Billy was a Scotsman and Billy was mean doesn't make every Scotsman mean.
Looking at that EU poll from the other day, christ Cameron's trust ratings really are awful.
Do you trust the following on the EU? Boris Johnson - 31% Jeremy Corbyn - 25% Nigel Farage - 25% Nicola Sturgeon - 23% (this is UK-wide!!) David Cameron - 19%
A basic lesson most learn at school. "Because Billy was a Scotsman and Billy was mean doesn't make every Scotsman mean.
True. The issue, however, is that some people have a difficulty accepting that different people are more prone to behavior that we do not like. See Jess Philips for the classic example:
There's no doubt the last minute heebie geebie bee factor will be enough win it for Remain. Cameron also I suspect will demolish Farage tonight. Leave probably have peaked.
I expect Farage will do very well in the debate. He knows the subject inside out.
Possibly he will but there are risks in knowing the subject inside out. The first is not pitching at the right level for the audience's own knowledge - either patronisingly simply or too technical an complex - and the second is assuming that everyone else is as interested in the subject as he is.
He may well not do that but his task tonight is a very different one from that which he had at the general election debate (in which he became too angry).
I'd be very, very surprised = he's been doing this for years with live audiences. He can be too blokey for some, but he's very good at it.
Looking at that EU poll from the other day, christ Cameron's trust ratings really are awful.
Do you trust the following on the EU? Boris Johnson - 31% Jeremy Corbyn - 25% Nigel Farage - 25% Nicola Sturgeon - 23% (this is UK-wide!!) David Cameron - 19%
Looking at that EU poll from the other day, christ Cameron's trust ratings really are awful.
Do you trust the following on the EU? Boris Johnson - 31% Jeremy Corbyn - 25% Nigel Farage - 25% Nicola Sturgeon - 23% (this is UK-wide!!) David Cameron - 19%
The Archbishop of Canterbury is coming out with some incredibly helpful lines for Remain and damaging for Farage
ABoC: Farage's claim linking migrants to sex attacks is"inexcusable pandering" to prejudice and "legitimising racism"
The same might have been said about grooming gangs in Rotherham and elsewhere. Telling the truth is a higher value than not saying things just because someone might not like hearing it. One would have thought that the AoC would have understood that point, if nothing else.
Perhaps he needs to be reminded of the following quote:-
"The man who is honest in small things will be honest in great. The man who is dishonest in small things will be dishonest in great."
Personally, I don't particularly like Farage using rape as a reason for leaving the EU. There clearly is a problem with the sexual attitudes of some migrants but that applies to groups who are citizens in our countries as well. Sexual assault did not start with the EU and will not end with our departure. The ability to choose whom we let into the country and our ability to deport those who break our laws are key issues but they require careful thought about how to get the best effective policies to achieve what I would hope we would all want.
For a lawyer you really seem to struggle with the concept of racial stereotyping. Most lawyers I know -and I'm from a family of them- like to take every case on its merit. I always thought it was something to do with their training. A few disclaimers which usually find their way into your later paragraphs doesn't excuse it at all. A basic lesson most learn at school. "Because Billy was a Scotsman and Billy was mean doesn't make every Scotsman mean.
Oh Roge, for someone who speaks the language you really seem to struggle with the concept of comprehension of other posts.
Go and read Ms. Cyclefree's comment again after taking off your preconception spectacles, and you'll see it is as balanced as ever.
Looking at that EU poll from the other day, christ Cameron's trust ratings really are awful.
Do you trust the following on the EU? Boris Johnson - 31% Jeremy Corbyn - 25% Nigel Farage - 25% Nicola Sturgeon - 23% (this is UK-wide!!) David Cameron - 19%
ABoC: Farage's claim linking migrants to sex attacks is"inexcusable pandering" to prejudice and "legitimising racism"
The left are coming hard at Farage on this one. Saint Shami, the Venerable Doreen Lawrence and Ayatollah Warsi too.
Is Farage scaremongering? Undoubtedly. Is it any worse than the scaremongering by Remain? No.
That's horseshit. Most economists from either side agree there's a downside, short term at least, to Leaving. Nobody other than Farage is suggesting gangs of Eastern European rapists are going to be roaming the streets of English towns violating English girls.
yeah but give it a week and Dave and George will catch him up.
Gangs of Leavers roaming the streets?
Why not, we;ve had just about every other sort of bollocks over the last three months.
Feral gangs of bestial kipper fanatics will hump little old ladies poodles in front of them, nobody will have any money and the country will just become a huge foodbank, all our houses will collapse and you can buy a palace for a knee trembler or 20 silk cut.
There's no monopoly on stupid claims in this campaign.
Labour's "suggestion", today, that LEAVING the EU would bring an "end to paid holidays" was still pretty special.
Never mind that the first legislation for paid holidays for employees was introduced by Neville Chamberlain in 1938.
As countries grow wealthier, so they extend statutory employment rights. Of course, sometimes they'll amend these rights to reflect changes in economic circumstances and working practices. Employment law is exactly the sort of thing that should be determined at national, not supranational, level.
As both sides of the Tory party has by lying through their teeth for weeks you can't really blame anyone else for joining in.
It will have some traction with Labour voters because Leave is predominantly led by the sort of Tory right wingers that many voters believe would do exactly that if they got a chance.
Looking at that EU poll from the other day, christ Cameron's trust ratings really are awful.
Do you trust the following on the EU? Boris Johnson - 31% Jeremy Corbyn - 25% Nigel Farage - 25% Nicola Sturgeon - 23% (this is UK-wide!!) David Cameron - 19%
I'm convinced we're going to see vast swathes of people who would never vote anything other than Labour in the North and East of England, and the South of Wales vote LEAVE.
Completely agree , think we'll see a majority Labour WWC vote to leave offset by Conservative AB1 having second thoughts in the booth and plumping for Remain to save their house prices. Leave will carry the day based on a very high turnout of CDE.
Looking at that EU poll from the other day, christ Cameron's trust ratings really are awful.
Do you trust the following on the EU? Boris Johnson - 31% Jeremy Corbyn - 25% Nigel Farage - 25% Nicola Sturgeon - 23% (this is UK-wide!!) David Cameron - 19%
Completely agree , think we'll see a majority Labour WWC vote to leave offset by Conservative AB1 having second thoughts in the booth and plumping for Remain to save their house prices.
Mr Tony I'm a conservative South East property owner and I'd be more than happy to see properrty prices cool off if it meant our young people could get a chance to own their own home.
Many older tory property owners are also parents, or work with younger folk.
For a lawyer you really seem to struggle with the concept of racial stereotyping. Most lawyers I know -and I'm from a family of them- like to take every case on its merit. I always thought it was something to do with their training. A few disclaimers which usually find their way into your later paragraphs doesn't excuse it at all. A basic lesson most learn at school. "Because Billy was a Scotsman and Billy was mean doesn't make every Scotsman mean.
Which is precisely why I said that I do not like what Farage is doing and why I used the phrase "some" rather than "all" and "careful thought" and deportation of people who break our laws i.e. after a trial and conviction which I - rather better than you, I think - understand involves making a decision on the facts. Perhaps you need to learn to read and understand a bit more carefully than assuming that I said things which I did not say.
It is those who say that something must not be said because it might lead others to make unwarranted conclusions who are afraid of the facts. And the AoC appears to fall into this category. As, I am afraid, do you. You seem quite unwilling to accept that some migrants have - on the evidence we have seen in Germany and elsewhere - an approach to women which many women find really quite repellent and which often involve breaches of our laws. Saying so is not pandering to prejudice or racism. Not talking about issues does not make them go away. It risks making them worse and it makes the victims of crimes feel abandoned. Please go and read the evidence - as I have - in some of the recent grooming cases in Britain if you want to know what the jury found. Or the report on Rotherham and why those crimes were ignored.
I have been a victim of serious sexual assault and I feel pretty angry when others either seek to diminish what women like me suffer because they daren't criticise the attacker or seek to make spurious political points out of our suffering.
You cannot deal with problems if you ignore them. If people like the AoC won't talk sensibly about the problems of sexual assault and the problems of young men coming from cultures with very different approaches to women and women's sexuality than our own then he can hardly complain if it is left to the Farages of this world to do so and to do so in a way which sheds more heat than light on the subject.
Or you can carry on making unfounded accusations at others for things they have not said.
A basic lesson most learn at school. "Because Billy was a Scotsman and Billy was mean doesn't make every Scotsman mean.
True. The issue, however, is that some people have a difficulty accepting that different people are more prone to behavior that we do not like. See Jess Philips for the classic example:
The Archbishop of Canterbury is coming out with some incredibly helpful lines for Remain and damaging for Farage
ABoC: Farage's claim linking migrants to sex attacks is"inexcusable pandering" to prejudice and "legitimising racism"
The same might have been said about grooming gangs in Rotherham and elsewhere. Telling the truth is a higher value than not saying things just because someone might not like hearing it. One would have thought that the AoC would have understood that point, if nothing else.
Perhaps he needs to be reminded of the following quote:-
"The man who is honest in small things will be honest in great. The man who is dishonest in small things will be dishonest in great."
Personally, I don't particularly like Farage using rape as a reason for leaving the EU. There clearly is a problem with the sexual attitudes of some migrants but that applies to groups who are citizens in our countries as well. Sexual assault did not start with the EU and will not end with our departure. The ability to choose whom we let into the country and our ability to deport those who break our laws are key issues but they require careful thought about how to get the best effective policies to achieve what I would hope we would all want.
For a lawyer you really seem to struggle with the concept of racial stereotyping. Most lawyers I know -and I'm from a family of them- like to take every case on its merit. I always thought it was something to do with their training. A few disclaimers which usually find their way into your later paragraphs doesn't excuse it at all. A basic lesson most learn at school. "Because Billy was a Scotsman and Billy was mean doesn't make every Scotsman mean.
Oh Roge, for someone who speaks the language you really seem to struggle with the concept of comprehension of other posts.
Go and read Ms. Cyclefree's comment again after taking off your preconception spectacles, and you'll see it is as balanced as ever.
That tells me much more about you than Cyclefree. You don't even need an ability to read between the lines
I'm convinced we're going to see vast swathes of people who would never vote anything other than Labour in the North and East of England, and the South of Wales vote LEAVE.
Completely agree , think we'll see a majority Labour WWC vote to leave offset by Conservative AB1 having second thoughts in the booth and plumping for Remain to save their house prices. Leave will carry the day based on a very high turnout of CDE.
There's no doubt the last minute heebie geebie bee factor will be enough win it for Remain. Cameron also I suspect will demolish Farage tonight. Leave probably have peaked.
I expect Farage will do very well in the debate. He knows the subject inside out.
Possibly he will but there are risks in knowing the subject inside out. The first is not pitching at the right level for the audience's own knowledge - either patronisingly simply or too technical an complex - and the second is assuming that everyone else is as interested in the subject as he is.
He may well not do that but his task tonight is a very different one from that which he had at the general election debate (in which he became too angry).
I'd be very, very surprised = he's been doing this for years with live audiences. He can be too blokey for some, but he's very good at it.
He was awful in the seven way debate last year. Leavers can thank their lucky stars that Farage has not been running the show and that Hoey, Johnson, Gove etc have made this as close as it is. He may be OK tonight if he remembers he's trying to appeal to a majority of the nation and not core vote only.
There's no doubt the last minute heebie geebie bee factor will be enough win it for Remain. Cameron also I suspect will demolish Farage tonight. Leave probably have peaked.
I expect Farage will do very well in the debate. He knows the subject inside out.
Possibly he will but there are risks in knowing the subject inside out. The first is not pitching at the right level for the audience's own knowledge - either patronisingly simply or too technical an complex - and the second is assuming that everyone else is as interested in the subject as he is.
He may well not do that but his task tonight is a very different one from that which he had at the general election debate (in which he became too angry).
I'd be very, very surprised = he's been doing this for years with live audiences. He can be too blokey for some, but he's very good at it.
The swing voters in this referendum are quite different from the usual UKIP-possible swing voters he pitches to though.
I'm convinced we're going to see vast swathes of people who would never vote anything other than Labour in the North and East of England, and the South of Wales vote LEAVE.
Completely agree , think we'll see a majority Labour WWC vote to leave offset by Conservative AB1 having second thoughts in the booth and plumping for Remain to save their house prices. Leave will carry the day based on a very high turnout of CDE.
"ECJ ruling says EU countries can't imprison migrants for crossing borders in schengen "
Not particularly good timing for remain
We are not in Schengen...
Apart from that
But Schengen is the reason many of them are in Calais, waiting to get into the UK - rather than Sicily or Rhodes or Cadiz.
Next.
All continental countries, including France, should arrest anyone believed to be in the country unlawfully. If the arrestees cannot show good reason why they are in the country lawfully, they should be asked if they want to claim asylum. If they say yes they should be detained until their case is heard. If they say no they should be detained pending deportation. Anyone who tries to confuse the system by destroying their documents may be detained indefinitely until their status is clarified.
The States are not enforcing the law.This would require the construction of large detention facilities but it would discourage others from coming. If you don't do this "charities" will feed, clothe and house the migrants until they are ready to jump on the next lorry.
There's no doubt the last minute heebie geebie bee factor will be enough win it for Remain. Cameron also I suspect will demolish Farage tonight. Leave probably have peaked.
I expect Farage will do very well in the debate. He knows the subject inside out.
Possibly he will but there are risks in knowing the subject inside out. The first is not pitching at the right level for the audience's own knowledge - either patronisingly simply or too technical an complex - and the second is assuming that everyone else is as interested in the subject as he is.
He may well not do that but his task tonight is a very different one from that which he had at the general election debate (in which he became too angry).
I'd be very, very surprised = he's been doing this for years with live audiences. He can be too blokey for some, but he's very good at it.
He was awful in the seven way debate last year. Leavers can thank their lucky stars that Farage has not been running the show and that Hoey, Johnson, Gove etc have made this as close as it is. He may be OK tonight if he remembers he's trying to appeal to a majority of the nation and not core vote only.
The Archbishop of Canterbury is coming out with some incredibly helpful lines for Remain and damaging for Farage
ABoC: Farage's claim linking migrants to sex attacks is"inexcusable pandering" to prejudice and "legitimising racism"
The AoC is an increasingly irrelevant figure.
So is Farage.
I don't much like Farage, but it is silly to deny he has considerable charisma and electoral appeal.
To take a party from almost nowhere to 3.9 million votes is a remarkable achievement for anyone.
Yes, past tense, it was a remarkable achievement, but it only resulted in the loss of one of their two seats. Since then we have had his resignation and un-resignation and a number of losses including their only council and a number of councillors. In by-elections their percentage share is generally down by around 10%.
I'm convinced we're going to see vast swathes of people who would never vote anything other than Labour in the North and East of England, and the South of Wales vote LEAVE.
Completely agree , think we'll see a majority Labour WWC vote to leave offset by Conservative AB1 having second thoughts in the booth and plumping for Remain to save their house prices. Leave will carry the day based on a very high turnout of CDE.
Mr. Tony, I am an AB1 as are most of my social set. None of us give a hoot about the prices of our houses but are all very concerned about the future of our children and grandchildren. In my experience those of us richer in years, of whatever social class, are less likely to vote for their own benefit and more for what they see as the best future for the next generations.
I'm convinced we're going to see vast swathes of people who would never vote anything other than Labour in the North and East of England, and the South of Wales vote LEAVE.
Completely agree , think we'll see a majority Labour WWC vote to leave offset by Conservative AB1 having second thoughts in the booth and plumping for Remain to save their house prices. Leave will carry the day based on a very high turnout of CDE.
I'm convinced we're going to see vast swathes of people who would never vote anything other than Labour in the North and East of England, and the South of Wales vote LEAVE.
Completely agree , think we'll see a majority Labour WWC vote to leave offset by Conservative AB1 having second thoughts in the booth and plumping for Remain to save their house prices. Leave will carry the day based on a very high turnout of CDE.
Compare turnout to say 1992 , when there was more enthusiasm for labour As Labour has moved away from it's roots CDE turnout has dropped. The WWC are very agitated by the Immigration numbers, rightly or wrongly.
There's no doubt the last minute heebie geebie bee factor will be enough win it for Remain. Cameron also I suspect will demolish Farage tonight. Leave probably have peaked.
I expect Farage will do very well in the debate. He knows the subject inside out.
Possibly he will but there are risks in knowing the subject inside out. The first is not pitching at the right level for the audience's own knowledge - either patronisingly simply or too technical an complex - and the second is assuming that everyone else is as interested in the subject as he is.
He may well not do that but his task tonight is a very different one from that which he had at the general election debate (in which he became too angry).
I'd be very, very surprised = he's been doing this for years with live audiences. He can be too blokey for some, but he's very good at it.
He was awful in the seven way debate last year. Leavers can thank their lucky stars that Farage has not been running the show and that Hoey, Johnson, Gove etc have made this as close as it is. He may be OK tonight if he remembers he's trying to appeal to a majority of the nation and not core vote only.
Gove has lower ratings than Farage does.
It's actually working well. Farage is rallying the core voters. Boris Johnson, Michael Gove, Kate Hoey are winning over floating voters. Farage was quite right that Leave should focus on immigration, but he would have been the wrong man to do so.
There's no doubt the last minute heebie geebie bee factor will be enough win it for Remain. Cameron also I suspect will demolish Farage tonight. Leave probably have peaked.
I expect Farage will do very well in the debate. He knows the subject inside out.
Possibly he will but there are risks in knowing the subject inside out. The first is not pitching at the right level for the audience's own knowledge - either patronisingly simply or too technical an complex - and the second is assuming that everyone else is as interested in the subject as he is.
He may well not do that but his task tonight is a very different one from that which he had at the general election debate (in which he became too angry).
I'd be very, very surprised = he's been doing this for years with live audiences. He can be too blokey for some, but he's very good at it.
He was awful in the seven way debate last year. Leavers can thank their lucky stars that Farage has not been running the show and that Hoey, Johnson, Gove etc have made this as close as it is. He may be OK tonight if he remembers he's trying to appeal to a majority of the nation and not core vote only.
Nigel Farage also has a king-size ego and if he thinks the audience are responding well, he finds it hard not to push things a bit too far.
What might be in his favour re the Cologne attacks, the BBC 24-hour News did an item on this, this very morning, which really surprised me.
There's no doubt the last minute heebie geebie bee factor will be enough win it for Remain. Cameron also I suspect will demolish Farage tonight. Leave probably have peaked.
I expect Farage will do very well in the debate. He knows the subject inside out.
Possibly he will but there are risks in knowing the subject inside out. The first is not pitching at the right level for the audience's own knowledge - either patronisingly simply or too technical an complex - and the second is assuming that everyone else is as interested in the subject as he is.
He may well not do that but his task tonight is a very different one from that which he had at the general election debate (in which he became too angry).
I'd be very, very surprised = he's been doing this for years with live audiences. He can be too blokey for some, but he's very good at it.
The swing voters in this referendum are quite different from the usual UKIP-possible swing voters he pitches to though.
There's no doubt the last minute heebie geebie bee factor will be enough win it for Remain. Cameron also I suspect will demolish Farage tonight. Leave probably have peaked.
I expect Farage will do very well in the debate. He knows the subject inside out.
Possibly he will but there are risks in knowing the subject inside out. The first is not pitching at the right level for the audience's own knowledge - either patronisingly simply or too technical an complex - and the second is assuming that everyone else is as interested in the subject as he is.
He may well not do that but his task tonight is a very different one from that which he had at the general election debate (in which he became too angry).
I'd be very, very surprised = he's been doing this for years with live audiences. He can be too blokey for some, but he's very good at it.
He was awful in the seven way debate last year. Leavers can thank their lucky stars that Farage has not been running the show and that Hoey, Johnson, Gove etc have made this as close as it is. He may be OK tonight if he remembers he's trying to appeal to a majority of the nation and not core vote only.
Gove has lower ratings than Farage does.
It'd be interesting to see how Gove is seen post Sky Q&A - he got a lot of plaudits from all sides.
- This is the closest to a transcript of the Farage comments I can find:
*** “The nuclear bomb this time would be about Cologne,” he told the Telegraph. Women may be at a particular risk from the “cultural” differences between British society and migrants, after gangs of migrant men allegedly launched a mass sexual attack against hundreds of women in Germany last New Year’s Eve, he said.
“There are some very big cultural issues,” he said. Asked whether mass sex attacks on the scale of Cologne could happen in Britain, Mr Farage replied: “It depends if they get EU passports. It depends if we vote for Brexit or not. It is an issue.”
Mr Farage said voters must consider the security threat posed by the migrant crisis when considering the referendum on whether to leave or stay in the EU.***
It's not very well reported, there's 'he said' after something that isn't in quotes etc. Obviously it's a newspaper's prerogative to sensationalise, and I dare say a transcript or recording would sound considerably less outrageous.
I'm convinced we're going to see vast swathes of people who would never vote anything other than Labour in the North and East of England, and the South of Wales vote LEAVE.
Completely agree , think we'll see a majority Labour WWC vote to leave offset by Conservative AB1 having second thoughts in the booth and plumping for Remain to save their house prices. Leave will carry the day based on a very high turnout of CDE.
Mr. Tony, I am an AB1 as are most of my social set. None of us give a hoot about the prices of our houses but are all very concerned about the future of our children and grandchildren. In my experience those of us richer in years, of whatever social class, are less likely to vote for their own benefit and more for what they see as the best future for the next generations.
Sorry, perhaps my original comment was misunderstood , what I meant was there will be some drift of Conservative AB1's to remain if it seems like Leave will actually win. Some small percentage with something to lose if Project Fear is correct will have second thoughts.
Mr. 1983, I agree, Farage's comments have been sensationalised.
Put together a (currently very small) list called Tipstr on Twitter. Thought it might be useful as breaking news can yield short term betting opportunities. If you're on Twitter and offer tips, just let me know your handle and I'll add you to the list.
The Archbishop of Canterbury is coming out with some incredibly helpful lines for Remain and damaging for Farage
ABoC: Farage's claim linking migrants to sex attacks is"inexcusable pandering" to prejudice and "legitimising racism"
The AoC is an increasingly irrelevant figure.
So is Farage.
I don't much like Farage, but it is silly to deny he has considerable charisma and electoral appeal.
To take a party from almost nowhere to 3.9 million votes is a remarkable achievement for anyone.
Yes, past tense, it was a remarkable achievement, but it only resulted in the loss of one of their two seats. Since then we have had his resignation and un-resignation and a number of losses including their only council and a number of councillors. In by-elections their percentage share is generally down by around 10%.
I've never voted Kipper, but if you compare what they've achieved - it's stunning in the face of being insulted by almost everyone as racist, stupid, backwoodsmen, fogies, BNP-lite and on and on and on.
In comparison, LibDems prance about virtue-signalling and smiled on by the media.
I've never voted Kipper, but if you compare what they've achieved - it's stunning in the face of being insulted by almost everyone as racist, stupid, backwoodsmen, fogies, BNP-lite and on and on and on.
In comparison, LibDems prance about virtue-signalling and smiled on by the media.
Pretty much exactly the Donald vs Clinton democrats dynamic!
Looking at that EU poll from the other day, christ Cameron's trust ratings really are awful.
Do you trust the following on the EU? Boris Johnson - 31% Jeremy Corbyn - 25% Nigel Farage - 25% Nicola Sturgeon - 23% (this is UK-wide!!) David Cameron - 19%
George Eaton @georgeeaton 1m1 minute ago Remain campaign polling has them ahead but four points down in last week, source says.
I do hope Remain hands over the data as Leave did to Sky.
Last week, internal polling apparently had REMAIN ahead by 6-8 points. If they've lost 4, that means they are now ahead, on their own reckoning, by 2-4, and the trend is against them.
Eeek.
You can see why Cameron is panicking.
If they're down four, it could be even closer, if people have shifted to Leave.
Gisela Stewart gave Chukka a good slap down on the Daily Politics. He was going on about Workers Rights and she said "if you haven't got a job, then you won't be worrying about Workers Rights." Is this really the big issue for Labour?
It is going to be interesting after the referendum to see how Labour voters react to the virtual disappearance of the big figures in Labour. Jeremy Corbyn not taking part in any debate. Andy Burnham too busy plotting for his next job. Yvette Cooper was booed in "Labour Manchester" yesterday.
On the issue of ABs vs CDs voting intetnion - there are, I'm sure, very many ABs like me who will be voting Leave for a variety of reasons. Mine is primarily the democracy / sovereignty one. But...I'd be very happy to see the Pound fall and for interest rates to rise. As would any wealthy oldie if they thought about things for 5 minutes. The failure to offer a return on savings is a sodding crime, and distorting our whole economic model. A 10% fall in the Pound and interest rates available from bank savings accounts at 3% would suit me just dandy. Vote Leave.
The Archbishop of Canterbury is coming out with some incredibly helpful lines for Remain and damaging for Farage
ABoC: Farage's claim linking migrants to sex attacks is"inexcusable pandering" to prejudice and "legitimising racism"
The same might have been said about grooming gangs in Rotherham and elsewhere. Telling the truth is a higher value than not saying things just because someone might not like hearing it. One would have thought that the AoC would have understood that point, if nothing else.
Perhaps he needs to be reminded of the following quote:-
"The man who is honest in small things will be honest in great. The man who is dishonest in small things will be dishonest in great."
Personally, I don't particularly like Farage using rape as a reason for leaving the EU. There clearly is a problem with the sexual attitudes of some migrants but that applies to groups who are citizens in our countries as well. Sexual assault did not start with the EU and will not end with our departure. The ability to choose whom we let into the country and our ability to deport those who break our laws are key issues but they require careful thought about how to get the best effective policies to achieve what I would hope we would all want.
For a lawyer you really seem to struggle with the concept of racial stereotyping. Most lawyers I know -and I'm from a family of them- like to take every case on its merit. I always thought it was something to do with their training. A few disclaimers which usually find their way into your later paragraphs doesn't excuse it at all. A basic lesson most learn at school. "Because Billy was a Scotsman and Billy was mean doesn't make every Scotsman mean.
Oh Roge, for someone who speaks the language you really seem to struggle with the concept of comprehension of other posts.
Go and read Ms. Cyclefree's comment again after taking off your preconception spectacles, and you'll see it is as balanced as ever.
That tells me much more about you than Cyclefree. You don't even need an ability to read between the lines
If you make unfounded noise about one of the fairest posters here, is it a surprise that people comment against it?
And I don't have a clue what you mean about reading between the lines. I find reading the lines is a much better way to understand what people have written. Don't you?
I'm convinced we're going to see vast swathes of people who would never vote anything other than Labour in the North and East of England, and the South of Wales vote LEAVE.
Completely agree , think we'll see a majority Labour WWC vote to leave offset by Conservative AB1 having second thoughts in the booth and plumping for Remain to save their house prices. Leave will carry the day based on a very high turnout of CDE.
Mr. Tony, I am an AB1 as are most of my social set. None of us give a hoot about the prices of our houses but are all very concerned about the future of our children and grandchildren. In my experience those of us richer in years, of whatever social class, are less likely to vote for their own benefit and more for what they see as the best future for the next generations.
Sorry, perhaps my original comment was misunderstood , what I meant was there will be some drift of Conservative AB1's to remain if it seems like Leave will actually win. Some small percentage with something to lose if Project Fear is correct will have second thoughts.
You might be correct, Mr. Tony, in fact if you are talking about some small percentage I suspect you most certainly are. How big that percentage will be is, I think, moot.
However, tonight is the monthly meeting of the HDGTA, so I will be able to gauge just how well Project Fear has done with this small group.
Looking at that EU poll from the other day, christ Cameron's trust ratings really are awful.
Do you trust the following on the EU? Boris Johnson - 31% Jeremy Corbyn - 25% Nigel Farage - 25% Nicola Sturgeon - 23% (this is UK-wide!!) David Cameron - 19%
His torment is my soulfood. I was a big Dave fan once. I feel utterly betrayed. As do millions more. I desperately hope the plebs can land one on the elite and their cosy status quo. Fuck 'em.
His torment is my soulfood. I was a big Dave fan once. I feel utterly betrayed. As do millions more. I desperately hope the plebs can land one on the elite and their cosy status quo. Fuck 'em.
BTW that Spectator piece explaining how MPS will ignore us, if we vote, LEAVE, is really quite something
De haut en bas, or what
And Dave's stepfather-in-law is clearly not pleased with his stepson-in-law.
One of the things that intrigues me is what would happen if an insurgent right wing party were to win an election in a Western European country, or looked as if it would do so. I wonder if the authorities would resort to force to prevent it.
"A third of middle class people would not be able to pay an unexpected £500 bill because of the squeeze on wages and rising living costs" - I wonder if the AB crowd are really as comfortable as we think?
George Eaton @georgeeaton 1m1 minute ago Remain campaign polling has them ahead but four points down in last week, source says.
I do hope Remain hands over the data as Leave did to Sky.
Last week, internal polling apparently had REMAIN ahead by 6-8 points. If they've lost 4, that means they are now ahead, on their own reckoning, by 2-4, and the trend is against them.
Eeek.
You can see why Cameron is panicking.
You are making the huge, and very possibly entirely wrong, assumption that it is a 'trend'. One weekly shift does not constitute a trend. More likely, it is a one off correction thanks to a week of immigration stuff from Leave. Now their campaign has shot that particular load, the trend poll movement might very well be other way, or there may be no movement at all.
I'm beginning to think the referendum will come down to working class turnout. If it's at general election levels Remain wins; if people who don't usually vote make the effort, Leave wins.
think the power of big multinational businesses is one of the big issues of the time, and it seems to me that the only way of getting them into line (i.e. paying their taxes, treating their workers decently, giving the decent small businesses a decent shot at competing) is by countries clubbing together and taking joint measures. If the West doesn't put up a "united front" on those issues, then the Googles of the world will be able to play one country off against another, saying "this country doesn't make us pay taxes or pay our workers decently, therefore we'll move all our jobs there if you insist we do those things", etcetc.
The thing is, there are twice as many corporate lobbyists in Brussels as there are in Washington DC. The multinationals love Brussels because the decision makers are remote from their electors and its much easier to persuade them of the merits of the latest corporate wheeze, and because they get their wheeze implemented across 28 countries in one go!
Regarding corporate taxation, its a laudable aim, but its really not going to happen, no matter how many encouraging press conferences the politicos give. Its worth remembering that the current President of the EU, in his previous job as the President of Luxembourg:
In early November 2014, just days after becoming head of the commission, Juncker was hit by media disclosures—derived from a document leak known as LuxLeaks—that Luxembourg under his premiership had turned into a major European centre of corporate tax avoidance. With the aid of the Luxembourg government, companies transferred tax liability for many billions of euros to Luxembourg, where the income was taxed at a fraction of 1%. Juncker, who in a speech in Brussels in July 2014 promised to "try to put some morality, some ethics, into the European tax landscape", was sharply criticized following the leaks. A subsequent motion of censure in the European parliament was brought against Juncker over his role in the tax avoidance schemes. The motion was defeated by a large majority.
Yes, thats right, less than 1%, in a community with free movement of capital. A move blatantly there to help big corporates avoid tax, and the EU Parliament let him off, they have no interest in fixing tax problems.
Comments
Apart from that
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/36470031
We have already been told that voting to re-join the ranks of independent nation states will bring about financial and economic armageddon, the collapse of of house prices and WW3. Furthermore we have been told this by people who have been proved totally wrong in the past. As a result the polling suggests that the contest has got closer and leave might actually win.
I doubt bringing back the French woman who is currently being prosecuted on charges of dishonesty in her own country to spread another scare story will have much effect.
http://www.theguardian.com/media/2016/jun/07/bbc-wimbledon-2day-clare-balding
Thank god for that.
He's enthusing audiences all over the North West/East in particular. I've watched some of them using Periscope.
If we Leave then he will be history.
https://twitter.com/BreitbartLondon/status/740186597115629568
Remain started off from the false premises that people a) trust them and b) are persuadable by economic arguments, and have, in blundering along with this poor strategy, made people trust them less and become more impervious to the economic argument.
Poor strategy, dreadful execution.
I'm convinced we're going to see vast swathes of people who would never vote anything other than Labour in the North and East of England, and the South of Wales vote LEAVE.
Brave sir Dave, he chickened out.....
We're still not in it, were never in it, will never be in it. And not relevant to the original post.
Apart from that, great point.
I am now convinced Farage claiming that Schengen is a bit crap will win the debate tonight and the referendum for Vote leave.
or not...
To take a party from almost nowhere to 3.9 million votes is a remarkable achievement for anyone.
We vote Leave and then force the rest of the EU to abandon Schengen.
That it?
I wish we still had the Like button.
Really!
On the whole, the CofE has suffered complete moral collapse in the past few decades and beyond being a right-on, progressive organisation has no idea in what it believes.
But, I can see it is a remarkable achievement to take a party from nowhere to nearly 4 million votes.
He may well not do that but his task tonight is a very different one from that which he had at the general election debate (in which he became too angry).
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-36472713
The chosen one has been heard muttering son of a ....
Do you trust the following on the EU?
Boris Johnson - 31%
Jeremy Corbyn - 25%
Nigel Farage - 25%
Nicola Sturgeon - 23% (this is UK-wide!!)
David Cameron - 19%
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/hkfno5n9fo/GMB_Results_160603_UndecidedVoters_Website.pdf
http://tinyurl.com/zk3dpwk
Go and read Ms. Cyclefree's comment again after taking off your preconception spectacles, and you'll see it is as balanced as ever.
Brexit is the right sort of topping
It will have some traction with Labour voters because Leave is predominantly led by the sort of Tory right wingers that many voters believe would do exactly that if they got a chance.
Leave will carry the day based on a very high turnout of CDE.
Mr Tony I'm a conservative South East property owner and I'd be more than happy to see properrty prices cool off if it meant our young people could get a chance to own their own home.
Many older tory property owners are also parents, or work with younger folk.
It is those who say that something must not be said because it might lead others to make unwarranted conclusions who are afraid of the facts. And the AoC appears to fall into this category. As, I am afraid, do you. You seem quite unwilling to accept that some migrants have - on the evidence we have seen in Germany and elsewhere - an approach to women which many women find really quite repellent and which often involve breaches of our laws. Saying so is not pandering to prejudice or racism. Not talking about issues does not make them go away. It risks making them worse and it makes the victims of crimes feel abandoned. Please go and read the evidence - as I have - in some of the recent grooming cases in Britain if you want to know what the jury found. Or the report on Rotherham and why those crimes were ignored.
I have been a victim of serious sexual assault and I feel pretty angry when others either seek to diminish what women like me suffer because they daren't criticise the attacker or seek to make spurious political points out of our suffering.
You cannot deal with problems if you ignore them. If people like the AoC won't talk sensibly about the problems of sexual assault and the problems of young men coming from cultures with very different approaches to women and women's sexuality than our own then he can hardly complain if it is left to the Farages of this world to do so and to do so in a way which sheds more heat than light on the subject.
Or you can carry on making unfounded accusations at others for things they have not said.
Your call.
Social Class
AB 75%
C1 69%
C2 62%
DE 57%
https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3575/How-Britain-voted-in-2015.aspx
The States are not enforcing the law.This would require the construction of large detention facilities but it would discourage others from coming. If you don't do this "charities" will feed, clothe and house the migrants until they are ready to jump on the next lorry.
Since then we have had his resignation and un-resignation and a number of losses including their only council and a number of councillors. In by-elections their percentage share is generally down by around 10%.
Remain campaign polling has them ahead but four points down in last week, source says.
http://www.thstailwinds.com/the-dispatch-problem/
Disclaimer: it contains absolutely nothing about Brexit.
As Labour has moved away from it's roots CDE turnout has dropped.
The WWC are very agitated by the Immigration numbers, rightly or wrongly.
Social Class
AB 83%
C1 78%
C2 75%
DE 77%
https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/poll.aspx?oItemId=2799&view=wide
What might be in his favour re the Cologne attacks, the BBC 24-hour News did an item on this, this very morning, which really surprised me.
*** “The nuclear bomb this time would be about Cologne,” he told the Telegraph. Women may be at a particular risk from the “cultural” differences between British society and migrants, after gangs of migrant men allegedly launched a mass sexual attack against hundreds of women in Germany last New Year’s Eve, he said.
“There are some very big cultural issues,” he said. Asked whether mass sex attacks on the scale of Cologne could happen in Britain, Mr Farage replied: “It depends if they get EU passports. It depends if we vote for Brexit or not. It is an issue.”
Mr Farage said voters must consider the security threat posed by the migrant crisis when considering the referendum on whether to leave or stay in the EU.***
It's not very well reported, there's 'he said' after something that isn't in quotes etc. Obviously it's a newspaper's prerogative to sensationalise, and I dare say a transcript or recording would sound considerably less outrageous.
https://www.icmunlimited.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/ICM_Scotland-Poll_May-2016-v2.pdf
Mr. 1983, I agree, Farage's comments have been sensationalised.
Put together a (currently very small) list called Tipstr on Twitter. Thought it might be useful as breaking news can yield short term betting opportunities. If you're on Twitter and offer tips, just let me know your handle and I'll add you to the list.
https://twitter.com/MorrisF1/lists/tipstr
In comparison, LibDems prance about virtue-signalling and smiled on by the media.
It is going to be interesting after the referendum to see how Labour voters react to the virtual disappearance of the big figures in Labour. Jeremy Corbyn not taking part in any debate. Andy Burnham too busy plotting for his next job. Yvette Cooper was booed in "Labour Manchester" yesterday.
You've come to talk with me again
On a purely objective basis, it'll be fascinating to see what MPs do if we do vote Leave.
And I don't have a clue what you mean about reading between the lines. I find reading the lines is a much better way to understand what people have written. Don't you?
However, tonight is the monthly meeting of the HDGTA, so I will be able to gauge just how well Project Fear has done with this small group.
His torment is my soulfood. I was a big Dave fan once. I feel utterly betrayed. As do millions more. I desperately hope the plebs can land one on the elite and their cosy status quo. Fuck 'em.
giving you a referendum, an' all. The bastard.
trendpoll movement might very well be other way, or there may be no movement at all.Thoughts?
Regarding corporate taxation, its a laudable aim, but its really not going to happen, no matter how many encouraging press conferences the politicos give. Its worth remembering that the current President of the EU, in his previous job as the President of Luxembourg: Yes, thats right, less than 1%, in a community with free movement of capital. A move blatantly there to help big corporates avoid tax, and the EU Parliament let him off, they have no interest in fixing tax problems.
This needs to go viral.