I'm convinced we're going to see vast swathes of people who would never vote anything other than Labour in the North and East of England, and the South of Wales vote LEAVE.
Completely agree , think we'll see a majority Labour WWC vote to leave offset by Conservative AB1 having second thoughts in the booth and plumping for Remain to save their house prices. Leave will carry the day based on a very high turnout of CDE.
Compare turnout to say 1992 , when there was more enthusiasm for labour As Labour has moved away from it's roots CDE turnout has dropped. The WWC are very agitated by the Immigration numbers, rightly or wrongly.
If Fargle enthuseses just 20% of those missing C2 DEs to vote leave Remain are in trouble.
Cameron has been a fool not to stay above the fray and getting the whole international political, commercial and great and good establishment to take part in Project Fear. Plenty of people who dont vote because 'politicians are all the same and out for what they can get' are going to delight in the chance of having a vote of confidence in that establishments dear project.
If kicking them in the nuts to spite them also results in some of project fear coming true and thinning out their fat pockets then all the better in their view.
It makes perfect sense now as to why Farage is staying largely out of the media and touring the inner cities.
There could also be a lot of shy voters who switch sides, either due to last minute fear or not wanting to confess to one's dinner party circle that one's a sceptic.
His torment is my soulfood. I was a big Dave fan once. I feel utterly betrayed. As do millions more. I desperately hope the plebs can land one on the elite and their cosy status quo. Fuck 'em.
"A third of middle class people would not be able to pay an unexpected £500 bill because of the squeeze on wages and rising living costs" - I wonder if the AB crowd are really as comfortable as we think?
I remember a Telegraph article from yrs ago saying a 1% rise interest rise would stick a load of mortgages into peril. I find that depressing but believeable.
However, the Middle Class would easily find £500 if they didn't buy the latest phone, shoes, takeaways, cheaper shopping et al. It's money management that's the problem, not a systemic over-extended problem.
BTW that Spectator piece explaining how MPS will ignore us, if we vote, LEAVE, is really quite something
De haut en bas, or what
And Dave's stepfather-in-law is clearly not pleased with his stepson-in-law.
One of the things that intrigues me is what would happen if an insurgent right wing party were to win an election in a Western European country, or looked as if it would do so. I wonder if the authorities would resort to force to prevent it.
I think they'd reckon they could absorb them. Right-wing populists who approach power usually start to soften up - e.g. the Danske Folkeparti, which has some influence on the government. I suspect that Trump will do exactly the same.
There are some fragile signs that the far right is slightly off the boil - the French polls don't look quite as good for Le Pen, the AfD is down slightly after a scandal, the Swedish and Danish parties are off their peaks. I think it's mainly an effect of immigration having dropped out of the headlines in most countries, but there's a tendency for them to galvanise opposition too, as happned in the end in Austria, when people bit their lips and voted for a leftie pro-immigation green.
His torment is my soulfood. I was a big Dave fan once. I feel utterly betrayed. As do millions more. I desperately hope the plebs can land one on the elite and their cosy status quo. Fuck 'em.
The one outcome of this referendum is the final nail in the coffin of GO's chances of becoming PM.
BTW that Spectator piece explaining how MPS will ignore us, if we vote, LEAVE, is really quite something
De haut en bas, or what
And Dave's stepfather-in-law is clearly not pleased with his stepson-in-law.
One of the things that intrigues me is what would happen if an insurgent right wing party were to win an election in a Western European country, or looked as if it would do so. I wonder if the authorities would resort to force to prevent it.
I think it's pretty clear the only purpose of this referendum was to use the result of it (which was expected to be a clear victory) as a political tool to marginalise the eurosceptics.
The renegotiation was a sham. The referendum was (and is) a sham.
There was never any serious thought or belief it might be lost and, now it looks possible, the powers that be are showing their true colours.
Which is why anyone who believes truly in democracy and the power of the people must now vote Leave.
BTW that Spectator piece explaining how MPS will ignore us, if we vote, LEAVE, is really quite something
De haut en bas, or what
And Dave's stepfather-in-law is clearly not pleased with his stepson-in-law.
One of the things that intrigues me is what would happen if an insurgent right wing party were to win an election in a Western European country, or looked as if it would do so. I wonder if the authorities would resort to force to prevent it.
I think it's pretty clear the only purpose of this referendum was to use the result of it (which was expected to be a clear victory) as a political tool to marginalise the eurosceptics.
The renegotiation was a sham. The referendum was (and is) a sham.
There was never any serious thought or belief it might be lost and, now it looks possible, the powers that be are showing their true colours.
Which is why anyone who believes truly in democracy and the power of the people must now vote Leave.
Why would you vote for something you don't agree with? Makes no sense whatsoever.
The Archbishop of Canterbury is coming out with some incredibly helpful lines for Remain and damaging for Farage
ABoC: Farage's claim linking migrants to sex attacks is"inexcusable pandering" to prejudice and "legitimising racism"
ROFL yes, that really will turn back the tide of "stuff the establishment".
Old Etonian, scion of posh boys and Archbishop says the plebs must behave from his London palace.
I'm curious about Welby's logic. Presumably, from what he says, racism can be legitimate if endorsed by individuals of sufficient authority - which he implies that Farage is?
It's all about the logic I think. Post hoc ergo propter hoc. Farage is not saying all migrants are sex pests. He is saying some migrants are sex pests in the expectation (in Welby's view, I think) that people will equate migrants with sex attacks. In doing so he legitimises racism.
BTW that Spectator piece explaining how MPS will ignore us, if we vote, LEAVE, is really quite something
De haut en bas, or what
And Dave's stepfather-in-law is clearly not pleased with his stepson-in-law.
One of the things that intrigues me is what would happen if an insurgent right wing party were to win an election in a Western European country, or looked as if it would do so. I wonder if the authorities would resort to force to prevent it.
I think it's pretty clear the only purpose of this referendum was to use the result of it (which was expected to be a clear victory) as a political tool to marginalise the eurosceptics.
The renegotiation was a sham. The referendum was (and is) a sham.
There was never any serious thought or belief it might be lost and, now it looks possible, the powers that be are showing their true colours.
Which is why anyone who believes truly in democracy and the power of the people must now vote Leave.
Why would you vote for staying in the EU? Makes no sense whatsoever.
BTW that Spectator piece explaining how MPS will ignore us, if we vote, LEAVE, is really quite something
De haut en bas, or what
And Dave's stepfather-in-law is clearly not pleased with his stepson-in-law.
One of the things that intrigues me is what would happen if an insurgent right wing party were to win an election in a Western European country, or looked as if it would do so. I wonder if the authorities would resort to force to prevent it.
I think they'd reckon they could absorb them. Right-wing populists who approach power usually start to soften up - e.g. the Danske Folkeparti, which has some influence on the government. I suspect that Trump will do exactly the same.
There are some fragile signs that the far right is slightly off the boil - the French polls don't look quite as good for Le Pen, the AfD is down slightly after a scandal, the Swedish and Danish parties are off their peaks. I think it's mainly an effect of immigration having dropped out of the headlines in most countries, but there's a tendency for them to galvanise opposition too, as happned in the end in Austria, when people bit their lips and voted for a leftie pro-immigation green.
Exactly right. The far-right wing suffer from the same Catch-22 faced by nationalist movements like ScotYes and Leave – the more they look likely to happen, the less likely they are to happen.
"A third of middle class people would not be able to pay an unexpected £500 bill because of the squeeze on wages and rising living costs" - I wonder if the AB crowd are really as comfortable as we think?
I remember a Telegraph article from yrs ago saying a 1% rise interest rise would stick a load of mortgages into peril. I find that depressing but believeable.
However, the Middle Class would easily find £500 if they didn't buy the latest phone, shoes, takeaways, cheaper shopping et al. It's money management that's the problem, not a systemic over-extended problem.
Hmm, read something similar in the atlantic recently :-
"More than two-thirds of Americans with incomes of less than $40,000 say they would sell something or borrow money in the event of a $400 emergency expense"
BTW that Spectator piece explaining how MPS will ignore us, if we vote, LEAVE, is really quite something
De haut en bas, or what
And Dave's stepfather-in-law is clearly not pleased with his stepson-in-law.
One of the things that intrigues me is what would happen if an insurgent right wing party were to win an election in a Western European country, or looked as if it would do so. I wonder if the authorities would resort to force to prevent it.
I think it's pretty clear the only purpose of this referendum was to use the result of it (which was expected to be a clear victory) as a political tool to marginalise the eurosceptics.
The renegotiation was a sham. The referendum was (and is) a sham.
There was never any serious thought or belief it might be lost and, now it looks possible, the powers that be are showing their true colours.
Which is why anyone who believes truly in democracy and the power of the people must now vote Leave.
Why would you vote for something you don't agree with? Makes no sense whatsoever.
To make a point about democracy.
The powers that be have said we Remain if we vote Remain and we Remain if we vote Leave.
So it doesn't matter which way you vote anymore, except to show them who's boss.
BTW that Spectator piece explaining how MPS will ignore us, if we vote, LEAVE, is really quite something
De haut en bas, or what
And Dave's stepfather-in-law is clearly not pleased with his stepson-in-law.
One of the things that intrigues me is what would happen if an insurgent right wing party were to win an election in a Western European country, or looked as if it would do so. I wonder if the authorities would resort to force to prevent it.
I think it's pretty clear the only purpose of this referendum was to use the result of it (which was expected to be a clear victory) as a political tool to marginalise the eurosceptics.
The renegotiation was a sham. The referendum was (and is) a sham.
There was never any serious thought or belief it might be lost and, now it looks possible, the powers that be are showing their true colours.
Which is why anyone who believes truly in democracy and the power of the people must now vote Leave.
Why would you vote for staying in the EU? Makes no sense whatsoever.
Why would you vote for those unpatriotic scurrilous wreckers Leave? Makes no sense whatsoever.
I'm beginning to think the referendum will come down to working class turnout. If it's at general election levels Remain wins; if people who don't usually vote make the effort, Leave wins.
Thoughts?
The very young and those who don't usually vote won't turnout anything like as much as expected.
Pensioners, the politically engaged and ABs will - same as usual.
If Leave are relying on the working class vote, we lose.
The Prime Ministers father in law went into print with that? To do that now is beyond Barking, Upminter or even Southend, it is fullblown Shoeburyness!
BTW that Spectator piece explaining how MPS will ignore us, if we vote, LEAVE, is really quite something
De haut en bas, or what
And Dave's stepfather-in-law is clearly not pleased with his stepson-in-law.
One of the things that intrigues me is what would happen if an insurgent right wing party were to win an election in a Western European country, or looked as if it would do so. I wonder if the authorities would resort to force to prevent it.
@faisalislam: Great scoop from @EdConwaySky on capital flight from £ in run up to referendum - March biggest month since fin crisis - £1.3m every minute
@faisalislam: Great scoop from @EdConwaySky on capital flight from £ in run up to referendum - March biggest month since fin crisis - £1.3m every minute
Conway ? Must be a run on first class rail ticket prices.
The Prime Ministers father in law went into print with that? To do that now is beyond Barking, Upminter or even Southend, it is fullblown Shoeburyness!
Don't worry. I have emailed it to Matthew Elliot and Vote Leave HQ.
My views on Remainers are rapidly approaching congruence with those of SeanT.
Is there any point in not voting Leave? They will ignore it, short term, but short term you can feel good about yourself. And longer term, plan to kick them out of office...
There's no doubt the last minute heebie geebie bee factor will be enough win it for Remain. Cameron also I suspect will demolish Farage tonight. Leave probably have peaked.
I expect Farage will do very well in the debate. He knows the subject inside out.
Possibly he will but there are risks in knowing the subject inside out. The first is not pitching at the right level for the audience's own knowledge - either patronisingly simply or too technical an complex - and the second is assuming that everyone else is as interested in the subject as he is.
He may well not do that but his task tonight is a very different one from that which he had at the general election debate (in which he became too angry).
I'd be very, very surprised = he's been doing this for years with live audiences. He can be too blokey for some, but he's very good at it.
He was awful in the seven way debate last year. Leavers can thank their lucky stars that Farage has not been running the show and that Hoey, Johnson, Gove etc have made this as close as it is. He may be OK tonight if he remembers he's trying to appeal to a majority of the nation and not core vote only.
What might be in his favour re the Cologne attacks, the BBC 24-hour News did an item on this, this very morning, which really surprised me.
Perhaps because the BBC has an office in Cologne which somehow missed the original story when it happened.
@SkyNewsBreak: Bank of England figures show £65bn either left the UK or was converted into other currencies in the first two months of the #EUref campaign
"One Remain source admitted to me they were starting to panic about the result, joining several senior figures who in recent days have told me they are seriously worried about voters who are notionally on their side staying at home....
The widespread assumption has been that Remain will win. But as the clock ticks down that assumption is feeling pretty shaky - watching the prime minister this morning, it doesn't feel like he completely believes it any more"
@faisalislam: Great scoop from @EdConwaySky on capital flight from £ in run up to referendum - March biggest month since fin crisis - £1.3m every minute
Rubbish. If this were the case, it would be visible in the FX markets. Sterling has bobbed around between 1.40 and 1.45 since January, which is par for the course.
The only way this could be true is if the Bank of England has been intervening to defend the value of sterling, but I don't think think their reserves are anything like sufficient considering the flows involved.
"One Remain source admitted to me they were starting to panic about the result, joining several senior figures who in recent days have told me they are seriously worried about voters who are notionally on their side staying at home....
The widespread assumption has been that Remain will win. But as the clock ticks down that assumption is feeling pretty shaky - watching the prime minister this morning, it doesn't feel like he completely believes it any more"
As I said a week or two ago, the complacency of Remain and commentators/analysts/city forecasters has been staggering. Dan Hodges being a prime witness. There was never a point when one could say that it was safe to have a widespread assumption that Remain will win.
The anti-elite/sod-you/migration issue has always had the potential to trump all the economic arguments. Combine that with the stay-at-home Remain vote, especially the young and it was always going to be at least very tight.
I would have thought all this talk of MPs "blocking" a NO vote is counterprodtcive.
Not only does it look appallingly arrogant it could also make undecided's think they can vote LEAVE without the risk that we would leave?
but didn't Cameron say Leave means leave?
I think so... Your guess is as good as mine as to what the hell is going on with REMAIN. Strikes me they're thrashing around in a state of complete blind panic.
@faisalislam: Great scoop from @EdConwaySky on capital flight from £ in run up to referendum - March biggest month since fin crisis - £1.3m every minute
I was reading a report from an investment house yesterday, suggesting that Brexit will be good for the FTSE - it will force Govt. to address structural issues in the economy, which would otherwise drift along if we vote to Remain...
The regional polls - London, Wales and Scotland - have been there or thereabouts last May and this May and certain pollsters have credibility in each of these areas.
Any national poll that starts posting subsamples wildly at odds with them is most likely nonsense.
@faisalislam: Great scoop from @EdConwaySky on capital flight from £ in run up to referendum - March biggest month since fin crisis - £1.3m every minute
Rubbish. If this were the case, it would be visible in the FX markets. Sterling has bobbed around between 1.40 and 1.45 since January, which is par for the course.
The only way this could be true is if the Bank of England has been intervening to defend the value of sterling, but I don't think think their reserves are anything like sufficient considering the flows involved.
@faisalislam: Great scoop from @EdConwaySky on capital flight from £ in run up to referendum - March biggest month since fin crisis - £1.3m every minute
I was reading a report from an investment house yesterday, suggesting that Brexit will be good for the FTSE - it will force Govt. to address structural issues in the economy, which would otherwise drift along if we vote to Remain...
They won't have time. The whole government will be spending the next X years sorting out the mess and renegotiating trade deals.
For a lawyer you really seem to struggle with the concept of racial stereotyping. Most lawyers I know -and I'm from a family of them- like to take every case on its merit. I always thought it was something to do with their training. A few disclaimers which usually find their way into your later paragraphs doesn't excuse it at all. A basic lesson most learn at school. "Because Billy was a Scotsman and Billy was mean doesn't make every Scotsman mean.
Which is precisely why I said that I do not like what Farage is doing and why I used the phrase "some" rather than "all" and "careful thought" and deportation of people who break our laws i.e. after a trial and conviction which I - rather better than you, I think - understand involves making a decision on the facts. Perhaps you need to learn to read and understand a bit more carefully than assuming that I said things which I did not say.
It is those who say that something must not be said because it might lead others to make unwarranted conclusions who are afraid of the facts. And the AoC appears to fall into this category. As, I am afraid, do you. You seem quite unwilling to accept that some migrants have - on the evidence we have seen in Germany and elsewhere - an approach to women which many women find really quite repellent and which often involve breaches of our laws. Saying so is not pandering to prejudice or racism. Not talking about issues does not make them go away. It risks making them worse and it makes the victims of crimes feel abandoned. Please go and read the evidence - as I have - in some of the recent grooming cases in Britain if you want to know what the jury found. Or the report on Rotherham and why those crimes were ignored.
I have been a victim of serious sexual assault and I feel pretty angry when others either seek to diminish what women like me suffer because they daren't criticise the attacker or seek to make spurious political points out of our suffering.
You cannot deal with problems if you ignore them. If people like the AoC won't talk sensibly about the problems of sexual assault and the problems of young men coming from cultures with very different approaches to women and women's sexuality than our own then he can hardly complain if it is left to the Farages of this world to do so and to do so in a way which sheds more heat than light on the subject. .
How does this post differ from the speech made by Farage which nearly everyone except the most dyed-in-the-wool UKIPers found to be unacceptable stereotyping. For the benefit of Mortimer reading between the lines means a subtext. Not really necessary with this except for the first paragraph
The Prime Ministers father in law went into print with that? To do that now is beyond Barking, Upminter or even Southend, it is fullblown Shoeburyness!
Don't worry. I have emailed it to Matthew Elliot and Vote Leave HQ.
My views on Remainers are rapidly approaching congruence with those of SeanT.
Well if he approved of Cameron as a son-in-law he can't be the sharpest knife in the box.
The Prime Ministers father in law went into print with that? To do that now is beyond Barking, Upminter or even Southend, it is fullblown Shoeburyness!
The Prime Ministers father in law went into print with that? To do that now is beyond Barking, Upminter or even Southend, it is fullblown Shoeburyness!
Don't worry. I have emailed it to Matthew Elliot and Vote Leave HQ.
My views on Remainers are rapidly approaching congruence with those of SeanT.
Quite. Remainers are scum. Anti democratic scum, at that.
We always knew it. What is amazing is that they now come right out, and admit it.
I've just cancelled my plans for the weekend. I will be out canvassing all the time instead.
Noted that £20bn of pain is at the modest end, a little over 1% of the economy. And it is plenty to wipe out the £9bn/yr, £250 m/wk paid to the EU by the public sector. And note that a one time only reduction followed by perfectly respectable growth (equivalent to being in the EU and running British economic policy - as we do now) wipes out any public purse advantage, not just in the short-term but in the longer run too.
Frankly, if outers now accept that some pain is going to happen but is worth it, it is a plain admission that all this extra for the NHS that they bang on about is either substantially or totally gut rot.
They have not quite decided on which of the following they mean:
1) there will be pain but it is a price worth paying; or 2) the UK will thrive outside the EU.
and use both interchangeably, often in the same post.
Those two statements, and this is not an endorsemhe past few weeks has been truly sad to see.
Um, this could get embarrassing for you. Let me try again.
The two statements. Are not. Contradictory. It's entirely possible. To take an economic hit. And end up better off. Look up 'investment' in the dictionary as an example.
@Luckyguy1983 - picking up from my hit and run earlier.
You are right to say that both 1) and 2) could both be argued if you consider that they operate over different timescales.
However, that is not the same as saying, here is a chunk of £350 / £250 / £150m a week (or whatever) that we pay to the EU that would be immediately available to the NHS if only we left the EU. Leave campaign are fundamentally wrong in implying that, if they accept that 1) could apply in any way.
Any most leavers on here are now accepting that 1) is some part of the deal.
So, the correct argument if accepting 1) is: OK, we will leave the EU and there will be no more money for the NHS, and could be less in the short-term, but although UK economic policy is broadly run by the UK for the UK already, we will have a couple of additional levers over UK trade policy and taxes such as VAT, and we might just be able to make better economic decisions over the years and decades to come and improve growth from where it otherwise would have been (even acknowledging that a big risk of Brexit is a political disruption that might result in worse short/medium-term decision making), so that in the fullness of time there MIGHT be a little more money for the NHS, which may or may not resemble the amount of money we used to pay into the EU all those years ago.
The Prime Ministers father in law went into print with that? To do that now is beyond Barking, Upminter or even Southend, it is fullblown Shoeburyness!
Is that your opinion of FPTP General Elections too?
Poor.
The UK doesn't ignore General Election verdicts.
The UK Government is now making it clear it would ignore a Leave vote.
No, it's making it clear that in the democratically elected MPs may opt to stay in the Single Market in the event of a Leave vote. Since the EU is not the same as the Single Market, what's the problem?
Is that your opinion of FPTP General Elections too?
Poor.
The UK doesn't ignore General Election verdicts.
The UK Government is now making it clear it would ignore a Leave vote.
No, it's making it clear that in the democratically elected MPs may opt to stay in the Single Market in the event of a Leave vote. Since the EU is not the same as the Single Market, what's the problem?
That's what I was trying to work out. The vote is on leaving the EU, not leaving the EEA.
No, it's making it clear that in the democratically elected MPs may opt to stay in the Single Market in the event of a Leave vote. Since the EU is not the same as the Single Market, what's the problem?
The problem is that one afternoon Boris and Gove decided that they'd have to go big on immigration to win so they'd have to sacrifice the Single Market to have any credibility.
The Prime Ministers father in law went into print with that? To do that now is beyond Barking, Upminter or even Southend, it is fullblown Shoeburyness!
Don't worry. I have emailed it to Matthew Elliot and Vote Leave HQ.
My views on Remainers are rapidly approaching congruence with those of SeanT.
Quite. Remainers are scum. Anti democratic scum, at that.
We always knew it. What is amazing is that they now come right out, and admit it.
I've just cancelled my plans for the weekend. I will be out canvassing all the time instead.
The Prime Ministers father in law went into print with that? To do that now is beyond Barking, Upminter or even Southend, it is fullblown Shoeburyness!
Don't worry. I have emailed it to Matthew Elliot and Vote Leave HQ.
My views on Remainers are rapidly approaching congruence with those of SeanT.
Quite. Remainers are scum. Anti democratic scum, at that.
We always knew it. What is amazing is that they now come right out, and admit it.
I've been awaiting your shift to REMAIN, as the election nears. Your usual MO is to blowhard, using as much inflammatory language as possible, before eventually your intellect takes hold and you see sense. Only a few days now, before you join the REMAIN camp.
The Prime Ministers father in law went into print with that? To do that now is beyond Barking, Upminter or even Southend, it is fullblown Shoeburyness!
I was on that line this weekend...
I did Ipswich to Lowestoft for the first time yesterday
The Prime Ministers father in law went into print with that? To do that now is beyond Barking, Upminter or even Southend, it is fullblown Shoeburyness!
Don't worry. I have emailed it to Matthew Elliot and Vote Leave HQ.
My views on Remainers are rapidly approaching congruence with those of SeanT.
Quite. Remainers are scum. Anti democratic scum, at that.
We always knew it. What is amazing is that they now come right out, and admit it.
There would be riots on the streets if the Government even tried to ignore a Leave vote, and if Labour try to block it they will be finished as a political party
Is that your opinion of FPTP General Elections too?
Poor.
The UK doesn't ignore General Election verdicts.
The UK Government is now making it clear it would ignore a Leave vote.
No, it's making it clear that in the democratically elected MPs may opt to stay in the Single Market in the event of a Leave vote. Since the EU is not the same as the Single Market, what's the problem?
The Prime Ministers father in law went into print with that? To do that now is beyond Barking, Upminter or even Southend, it is fullblown Shoeburyness!
Don't worry. I have emailed it to Matthew Elliot and Vote Leave HQ.
My views on Remainers are rapidly approaching congruence with those of SeanT.
Quite. Remainers are scum. Anti democratic scum, at that.
We always knew it. What is amazing is that they now come right out, and admit it.
There would be riots on the streets if the Government even tried to ignore a Leave vote, and if Labour try to block it they will be finished as a political party
The one benefit of having luke-warm Remainer Corbyn in place is that if there is a Leave vote, he isn't going to die in a ditch for Remain. He'll probably chuckle a bit at the anarchy of it all. Then whip his MPs to support the Referendum outcome.
Is that your opinion of FPTP General Elections too?
Poor.
The UK doesn't ignore General Election verdicts.
The UK Government is now making it clear it would ignore a Leave vote.
No, it's making it clear that in the democratically elected MPs may opt to stay in the Single Market in the event of a Leave vote. Since the EU is not the same as the Single Market, what's the problem?
You're missing the latest take. Lord Astor (Cameron's father in law) has gone beyond the sort-of ignore the referendum and stay-in-the-single-market thing, he's now saying that MPs would (and should) completely ignore this ADVISORY referendum, and simply not pass the legislation to get us out.
For what it's worth, I don't think many MPs would be insane enough to try this, but the fact Establishment figures are coming out with this sinister bilge is really quite startling.
I reakon a lot of this "we'll ignore the referendum" stuff is just bluster. A bit like how Brown thought he might be able to ignore the will of the British people in 2010 and cling on to power.
We know how that worked out...
At least I hope it's just bluster. My opinion of David Cameron is poor but I don't think he's an anti-democratic dictator. Is he?
Is that your opinion of FPTP General Elections too?
Poor.
The UK doesn't ignore General Election verdicts.
The UK Government is now making it clear it would ignore a Leave vote.
No, it's making it clear that in the democratically elected MPs may opt to stay in the Single Market in the event of a Leave vote. Since the EU is not the same as the Single Market, what's the problem?
You're missing the latest take. Lord Astor (Cameron's father in law) has gone beyond the sort-of ignore the referendum and stay-in-the-single-market thing, he's now saying that MPs would (and should) completely ignore this ADVISORY referendum, and simply not pass the legislation to get us out.
For what it's worth, I don't think many MPs would be insane enough to try this, but the fact Establishment figures are coming out with this sinister bilge is really quite startling.
Cameron has to be quizzed on this tonight. Anything but a clear cut acceptance of the result will be remarkably bad for Remain.
The Prime Ministers father in law went into print with that? To do that now is beyond Barking, Upminter or even Southend, it is fullblown Shoeburyness!
Don't worry. I have emailed it to Matthew Elliot and Vote Leave HQ.
My views on Remainers are rapidly approaching congruence with those of SeanT.
Quite. Remainers are scum. Anti democratic scum, at that.
We always knew it. What is amazing is that they now come right out, and admit it.
I've been awaiting your shift to REMAIN, as the election nears. Your usual MO is to blowhard, using as much inflammatory language as possible, before eventually your intellect takes hold and you see sense. Only a few days now, before you join the REMAIN camp.
You're not following me closely enough. I'm OUT, 100%. And preparing for the possible shock.
All this crap about "ignoring the result" from REMAINERS only makes me more insistent on voting against their will. It's loathsome.
Still plenty of time yet. I predict a conversion, on June 22/23 or maybe June 24.
For a lawyer you really seem to struggle with the concept of racial stereotyping. Most lawyers I know -and I'm from a family of them- like to take every case on its merit. I always thought it was something to do with their training. A few disclaimers which usually find their way into your later paragraphs doesn't excuse it at all. A basic lesson most learn at school. "Because Billy was a Scotsman and Billy was mean doesn't make every Scotsman mean.
...
It is those who say that something must not be said because it might lead others to make unwarranted conclusions who are afraid of the facts. And the AoC appears to fall into this category. As, I am afraid, do you. You seem quite unwilling to accept that some migrants have - on the evidence we have seen in Germany and elsewhere - an approach to women which many women find really quite repellent and which often involve breaches of our laws. Saying so is not pandering to prejudice or racism. Not talking about issues does not make them go away. It risks making them worse and it makes the victims of crimes feel abandoned. Please go and read the evidence - as I have - in some of the recent grooming cases in Britain if you want to know what the jury found. Or the report on Rotherham and why those crimes were ignored.
I have been a victim of serious sexual assault and I feel pretty angry when others either seek to diminish what women like me suffer because they daren't criticise the attacker or seek to make spurious political points out of our suffering.
You cannot deal with problems if you ignore them. If people like the AoC won't talk sensibly about the problems of sexual assault and the problems of young men coming from cultures with very different approaches to women and women's sexuality than our own then he can hardly complain if it is left to the Farages of this world to do so and to do so in a way which sheds more heat than light on the subject. .
How does this post differ from the speech made by Farage which nearly everyone except the most dyed-in-the-wool UKIPers found to be unacceptable stereotyping. For the benefit of Mortimer reading between the lines means a subtext. Not really necessary with this except for the first paragraph
The problem with reading between the lines is that there is only empty space there - empty space into which you seem to be projecting your own imaginings.
Unless you're really saying we shouldn't talk about any negative impact of migration at all? Ever?
Is that your opinion of FPTP General Elections too?
Poor.
The UK doesn't ignore General Election verdicts.
The UK Government is now making it clear it would ignore a Leave vote.
No, it's making it clear that in the democratically elected MPs may opt to stay in the Single Market in the event of a Leave vote. Since the EU is not the same as the Single Market, what's the problem?
You're missing the latest take. Lord Astor (Cameron's father in law) has gone beyond the sort-of ignore the referendum and stay-in-the-single-market thing, he's now saying that MPs would (and should) completely ignore this ADVISORY referendum, and simply not pass the legislation to get us out.
For what it's worth, I don't think many MPs would be insane enough to try this, but the fact Establishment figures are coming out with this sinister bilge is really quite startling.
Cameron has to be quizzed on this tonight. Anything but a clear cut acceptance of the result will be remarkably bad for Remain.
Of course he will say that. Project Fear depends on making people see a direct line between a cross on the ballot paper next to Leave and bad things. If he suggests politicians will have any room for manoeuvre it undermines the fear.
Is that your opinion of FPTP General Elections too?
Poor.
The UK doesn't ignore General Election verdicts.
The UK Government is now making it clear it would ignore a Leave vote.
No, it's making it clear that in the democratically elected MPs may opt to stay in the Single Market in the event of a Leave vote. Since the EU is not the same as the Single Market, what's the problem?
You're missing the latest take. Lord Astor (Cameron's father in law) has gone beyond the sort-of ignore the referendum and stay-in-the-single-market thing, he's now saying that MPs would (and should) completely ignore this ADVISORY referendum, and simply not pass the legislation to get us out.
For what it's worth, I don't think many MPs would be insane enough to try this, but the fact Establishment figures are coming out with this sinister bilge is really quite startling.
I reakon a lot of this "we'll ignore the referendum" stuff is just bluster. A bit like how Brown thought he might be able to ignore the will of the British people in 2010 and cling on to power.
We know how that worked out...
At least I hope it's just bluster. My opinion of David Cameron is poor but I don't think he's an anti-democratic dictator. Is he?
For bluster - it's been very damaging. It's cemented wavering Leavers and confirmed their worst fears of Remain arrogance.
Whatever the answer I think REMAIN - Cameron himself - has to come right out very soon and say it is rubbish, and he will respect the result, because letting this fester is one certain way for him to lose the vote, along with any residual affection for him, in wider Tory circles
I wonder whether Farage will go to town on this in the debate tonight?
Is that your opinion of FPTP General Elections too?
Poor.
The UK doesn't ignore General Election verdicts.
The UK Government is now making it clear it would ignore a Leave vote.
No, it's making it clear that in the democratically elected MPs may opt to stay in the Single Market in the event of a Leave vote. Since the EU is not the same as the Single Market, what's the problem?
You're missing the latest take. Lord Astor (Cameron's father in law) has gone beyond the sort-of ignore the referendum and stay-in-the-single-market thing, he's now saying that MPs would (and should) completely ignore this ADVISORY referendum, and simply not pass the legislation to get us out.
For what it's worth, I don't think many MPs would be insane enough to try this, but the fact Establishment figures are coming out with this sinister bilge is really quite startling.
I reakon a lot of this "we'll ignore the referendum" stuff is just bluster. A bit like how Brown thought he might be able to ignore the will of the British people in 2010 and cling on to power.
We know how that worked out...
At least I hope it's just bluster. My opinion of David Cameron is poor but I don't think he's an anti-democratic dictator. Is he?
Let's get one thing straight. If we vote to Leave, all that has been decided is that Britain will be coming out of the EU. That cannot be questioned.
But nothing else will have been decided. Whether it will be a EEA or EFTA, or glorious isolation or mixtures of each will be up to Parliament. It cannot be any other way.
Since the Maastricht rebels played funny business, so can others. There is a 2 - 1 majority in Parliament on the Remain [ close to ] in the EU. Even a Brexit PM cannot do anything. Her Majesty cannot grant a dissolution motion.
Whatever the answer I think REMAIN - Cameron himself - has to come right out very soon and say it is rubbish, and he will respect the result, because letting this fester is one certain way for him to lose the vote, along with any residual affection for him, in wider Tory circles
I wonder whether Farage will go to town on this in the debate tonight?
Given Kinnock Jnr has been quoted - it's a straight line to his mum and dad.
It's naughty of me to post this from just over a year ago, but an indication of how things have developed in a way that was not universally expected. Apologies to Richard.
I gave up at 'unbiased'. That is one thing you have never been.
Exactly, you make my point perfectly. This is why the Out side are not only going to lose, but are going to be trounced.
This is so obvious, it beggars belief that those who seriously want us to leave the EU (rather than just moan about it) don't see what is going to hit them. It is staggering, absolutely staggering, that they haven't already started organising the campaign, and in such a way that they can attract moderate Conservatives, such as myself, who might be persuadable.
My long-term forecast used to be that the In side would win 60:40, but, given the way things are developing, 70:30 is more likely, I think.
Is that your opinion of FPTP General Elections too?
Poor.
The UK doesn't ignore General Election verdicts.
The UK Government is now making it clear it would ignore a Leave vote.
No, it's making it clear that in the democratically elected MPs may opt to stay in the Single Market in the event of a Leave vote. Since the EU is not the same as the Single Market, what's the problem?
You're missing the latest take. Lord Astor (Cameron's father in law) has gone beyond the sort-of ignore the referendum and stay-in-the-single-market thing, he's now saying that MPs would (and should) completely ignore this ADVISORY referendum, and simply not pass the legislation to get us out.
For what it's worth, I don't think many MPs would be insane enough to try this, but the fact Establishment figures are coming out with this sinister bilge is really quite startling.
I reakon a lot of this "we'll ignore the referendum" stuff is just bluster. A bit like how Brown thought he might be able to ignore the will of the British people in 2010 and cling on to power.
We know how that worked out...
At least I hope it's just bluster. My opinion of David Cameron is poor but I don't think he's an anti-democratic dictator. Is he?
Let's get one thing straight. If we vote to Leave, all that has been decided is that Britain will be coming out of the EU. That cannot be questioned.
But nothing else will have been decided. Whether it will be a EEA or EFTA, or glorious isolation or mixtures of each will be up to Parliament. It cannot be any other way.
Since the Maastricht rebels played funny business, so can others. There is a 2 - 1 majority in Parliament on the Remain [ close to ] in the EU. Even a Brexit PM cannot do anything. Her Majesty cannot grant a dissolution motion.
I'm not sure there's enough popcorn in all the world, if they actually try that.
The odds on 'Leave' seem to be drifting on Betfair - now at 3.55. Remain are still the overwhelming favourites, though you wouldn't think so reading this blog...
Is that your opinion of FPTP General Elections too?
Poor.
The UK doesn't ignore General Election verdicts.
The UK Government is now making it clear it would ignore a Leave vote.
No, it's making it clear that in the democratically elected MPs may opt to stay in the Single Market in the event of a Leave vote. Since the EU is not the same as the Single Market, what's the problem?
Don't even try and talk to me.
I don't engage with autocrats and anti-democrats.
I work to defeat them.
I'm an anti-democrat for pointing out the right of our democratically elected legislature's right to decide on our future in the event of a Leave vote? If you want the people to decide perhaps you should be calling for an EEA vs EFTA vs WTO referendum. I'm sure the public can't wait.
The Prime Ministers father in law went into print with that? To do that now is beyond Barking, Upminter or even Southend, it is fullblown Shoeburyness!
Don't worry. I have emailed it to Matthew Elliot and Vote Leave HQ.
My views on Remainers are rapidly approaching congruence with those of SeanT.
Quite. Remainers are scum. Anti democratic scum, at that.
We always knew it. What is amazing is that they now come right out, and admit it.
There would be riots on the streets if the Government even tried to ignore a Leave vote, and if Labour try to block it they will be finished as a political party
The one benefit of having luke-warm Remainer Corbyn in place is that if there is a Leave vote, he isn't going to die in a ditch for Remain. He'll probably chuckle a bit at the anarchy of it all. Then whip his MPs to support the Referendum outcome.
Job done.
Do a deal with Brexit Tories that certain workers rights cannot be amended without 66% of the votes in Parliament, for example ?
Is that your opinion of FPTP General Elections too?
Poor.
The UK doesn't ignore General Election verdicts.
The UK Government is now making it clear it would ignore a Leave vote.
No, it's making it clear that in the democratically elected MPs may opt to stay in the Single Market in the event of a Leave vote. Since the EU is not the same as the Single Market, what's the problem?
You're missing the latest take. Lord Astor (Cameron's father in law) has gone beyond the sort-of ignore the referendum and stay-in-the-single-market thing, he's now saying that MPs would (and should) completely ignore this ADVISORY referendum, and simply not pass the legislation to get us out.
For what it's worth, I don't think many MPs would be insane enough to try this, but the fact Establishment figures are coming out with this sinister bilge is really quite startling.
OK, that's different, and I completely agree that would be outrageous.
The Prime Ministers father in law went into print with that? To do that now is beyond Barking, Upminter or even Southend, it is fullblown Shoeburyness!
Don't worry. I have emailed it to Matthew Elliot and Vote Leave HQ.
My views on Remainers are rapidly approaching congruence with those of SeanT.
Quite. Remainers are scum. Anti democratic scum, at that.
We always knew it. What is amazing is that they now come right out, and admit it.
There would be riots on the streets if the Government even tried to ignore a Leave vote, and if Labour try to block it they will be finished as a political party
The one benefit of having luke-warm Remainer Corbyn in place is that if there is a Leave vote, he isn't going to die in a ditch for Remain. He'll probably chuckle a bit at the anarchy of it all. Then whip his MPs to support the Referendum outcome.
Job done.
I don't think it would even come to that - Cameron would be voted out of office by his own MPs within two weeks.
Comments
Cameron has been a fool not to stay above the fray and getting the whole international political, commercial and great and good establishment to take part in Project Fear. Plenty of people who dont vote because 'politicians are all the same and out for what they can get' are going to delight in the chance of having a vote of confidence in that establishments dear project.
If kicking them in the nuts to spite them also results in some of project fear coming true and thinning out their fat pockets then all the better in their view.
It makes perfect sense now as to why Farage is staying largely out of the media and touring the inner cities.
There could also be a lot of shy voters who switch sides, either due to last minute fear or not wanting to confess to one's dinner party circle that one's a sceptic.
All true democrats should now be voting LEAVE.
However, the Middle Class would easily find £500 if they didn't buy the latest phone, shoes, takeaways, cheaper shopping et al. It's money management that's the problem, not a systemic over-extended problem.
There are some fragile signs that the far right is slightly off the boil - the French polls don't look quite as good for Le Pen, the AfD is down slightly after a scandal, the Swedish and Danish parties are off their peaks. I think it's mainly an effect of immigration having dropped out of the headlines in most countries, but there's a tendency for them to galvanise opposition too, as happned in the end in Austria, when people bit their lips and voted for a leftie pro-immigation green.
The one outcome of this referendum is the final nail in the coffin of GO's chances of becoming PM.
He's toast.
The renegotiation was a sham. The referendum was (and is) a sham.
There was never any serious thought or belief it might be lost and, now it looks possible, the powers that be are showing their true colours.
Which is why anyone who believes truly in democracy and the power of the people must now vote Leave.
"More than two-thirds of Americans with incomes of less than $40,000 say they would sell something or borrow money in the event of a $400 emergency expense"
http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2015/05/heres-how-many-americans-would-struggle-to-pay-a-400-emergency-expense/446454/
The powers that be have said we Remain if we vote Remain and we Remain if we vote Leave.
So it doesn't matter which way you vote anymore, except to show them who's boss.
Not only does it look appallingly arrogant it could also make undecided's think they can vote LEAVE without the risk that we would leave?
https://youtu.be/uD_aMZ6moxE
Pensioners, the politically engaged and ABs will - same as usual.
If Leave are relying on the working class vote, we lose.
Data uncovered by @SkyNews shows international investors are shifting money out of UK assets at the fastest rate since the financial crisis
I hope it would never happen here.
My views on Remainers are rapidly approaching congruence with those of SeanT.
Democracy is when every vote matters.
This is a total sham.
It has barely budged.
Vote Leave. Make a stand.
Government will ignore the vote anyway.
The only way this could be true is if the Bank of England has been intervening to defend the value of sterling, but I don't think think their reserves are anything like sufficient considering the flows involved.
The anti-elite/sod-you/migration issue has always had the potential to trump all the economic arguments. Combine that with the stay-at-home Remain vote, especially the young and it was always going to be at least very tight.
I remain a Remainer, but betting on Leave.
Any national poll that starts posting subsamples wildly at odds with them is most likely nonsense.
'The EU and Europe as a whole is in a war, whether the powers that be acknowledge it or no.
https://twitter.com/BreitbartLondon/status/740186597115629568'
Clearly Merkel's fault for not providing luxurious accommodation.
Must. Try. Harder.
How does this post differ from the speech made by Farage which nearly everyone except the most dyed-in-the-wool UKIPers found to be unacceptable stereotyping. For the benefit of Mortimer reading between the lines means a subtext. Not really necessary with this except for the first paragraph
The UK doesn't ignore General Election verdicts.
The UK Government is now making it clear it would ignore a Leave vote.
I agree the mood music is deeply concerning.
Remain must be CRUSHED.
You are right to say that both 1) and 2) could both be argued if you consider that they operate over different timescales.
However, that is not the same as saying, here is a chunk of £350 / £250 / £150m a week (or whatever) that we pay to the EU that would be immediately available to the NHS if only we left the EU. Leave campaign are fundamentally wrong in implying that, if they accept that 1) could apply in any way.
Any most leavers on here are now accepting that 1) is some part of the deal.
So, the correct argument if accepting 1) is: OK, we will leave the EU and there will be no more money for the NHS, and could be less in the short-term, but although UK economic policy is broadly run by the UK for the UK already, we will have a couple of additional levers over UK trade policy and taxes such as VAT, and we might just be able to make better economic decisions over the years and decades to come and improve growth from where it otherwise would have been (even acknowledging that a big risk of Brexit is a political disruption that might result in worse short/medium-term decision making), so that in the fullness of time there MIGHT be a little more money for the NHS, which may or may not resemble the amount of money we used to pay into the EU all those years ago.
Snappy. Vote Leave should take me on, I think
No, it's making it clear that in the democratically elected MPs may opt to stay in the Single Market in the event of a Leave vote. Since the EU is not the same as the Single Market, what's the problem?
Osborne coordinating Chinese support for Remain: https://t.co/j29AYMG9to
They also use it a lot in the two of the world's largest democracies: India and the USA.
300 arrived in Crete on Friday alone.
Turkish authorities said the EU agreement was *practically shelved* = I'm totally shocked.
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/world/migrants-surge-for-bulgaria-land-route-vs6pzkq52
I don't engage with autocrats and anti-democrats.
I work to defeat them.
Job done.
We know how that worked out...
At least I hope it's just bluster. My opinion of David Cameron is poor but I don't think he's an anti-democratic dictator. Is he?
Unless you're really saying we shouldn't talk about any negative impact of migration at all? Ever?
But nothing else will have been decided. Whether it will be a EEA or EFTA, or glorious isolation or mixtures of each will be up to Parliament. It cannot be any other way.
Since the Maastricht rebels played funny business, so can others. There is a 2 - 1 majority in Parliament on the Remain [ close to ] in the EU. Even a Brexit PM cannot do anything. Her Majesty cannot grant a dissolution motion.
I'm not sure there's enough popcorn in all the world, if they actually try that.
Mr. Gin, it's stupid if it is bluster.