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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LEAVE should deploy David Davis – the only person apart from Clegg to have beaten Cameron in a TV devate
What’s very striking so far in the campaign is the lack of effective communication skills amongst the LEAVE team. Iain Duncan Smith once again this morning showed how right Tory MPs were to sack him in 2003 and Gove hardly comes over convincingly though his writing is better than his TV appearances.
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If Leave need David Davis, then they really are having a shite campaign.
It`s a coordinated campaign when it comes to the EU ...the UK is one of only four countries out of the 28 that are net contributors there are a hell off a lot of bureaucrats that rely on our contribution for their livelihood
Sean, careful you dont want to get banned. Sadly though this placed morphed from a non aligned site to a site championing a lib dem orange book / national liberal viewpoint around the time that the Tory Libdem coapition honeymoon period ended.
Its their site though sonit is up to them but it has to be remembered that the EU is something very dear to Libdem and National Liberal aka Tory Wet hearts.
TSE has work to do...
not to be relegated to ConUKIP Home Fantasy League for 16/17
The closest that I see are Leave at 3.35 and Remain on 40-45% at 22 on betfair.
On the whole the markets look pretty convinced that Remain will win by about 5%.
I do wonder whether big money gamblers might underrate immigration concerns and overrate economic concerns. But if we see a poll with Remain in a clear lead, we might see Leave's price lengthen in a flash.
Boris won Labour City London (twice) and Labour won it back as soon as Boris stood down.
Boris is more trusted by the public than Cameron to tell the truth over the EU.
Yet, according to this website, he's a terrible politician, a national embarrassment and an all round no-nothing disaster area....
Something doesn't quite add up?
The reason is because the LEAVE campaign has been ratfucked, to use the Nixonian expression.
I mean...excluding its best player isn't exactly rational otherwise.
Still, popular contempt for the immigration that the political class has supported for so long, ignoring popular opposition, may yet win the referendum for LEAVE.
BREXIT: America will welcome us with open arms!
American President: Maybe not.
BEXIT: He should shut up!!!
BREXIT: We will all be richer.
Governor of the bank of England. No we won't.
BEXIT: He should shut up! And be sacked!
BREXIT: The EU is like Hitler!
And how have PBers responded to these developments?
REMAINERS ARE PANICKING!!!!
Not seeing it currently...
Me: Ed's ratings are a bit crap
Labour Supporters: But Labour are leading in the polls, with double digit leads.
Hand on heart, do you really think Boris comparing the EU to Hitler is a good decision, it will only enthuse those who were already voting Leave, and put off floating voters.
As far as I remember at the general election, none of the pollsters covered themselves with glory (even the once mighty ICM)
This idea what we discount online polls in favour of phone polls looks a bit like "cheeypicking" polls we don't like which was a BIG faux pas on here when I first started ten years ago?
If the LEAVE outfit decided to involve Nigel Farage, and then it won, it's not as if Farage would sail into Downing Street at the next election. The referendum has eff-all to do with party politics, even if most commentators on it also enjoy commentating on party politics. Sure, some Labourites are having a whale of a time watching the Tory Party savage itself, but they can hardly help out in the process given the position that their own leadership has adopted. All they can do is spectate. The Tory party's referendum-related politics don't cause the referendum to become a conflict between parties. Even the idea of sampling "Labour voters", "Tory voters", etc., and asking whether they will vote REMAIN or LEAVE, or whether they "haven't decided yet", is stupid. Pollsters might as well sample people who like chocolate and who don't like chocolate.
Even though he's not exactly going to be winning any Mr Personality awards, he has quite a good and reassuring manner on telly IMO. Plus he's pretty good at getting a point across without sounding like a weird ivory tower academic (Gove) or an evangelical hysterical "frother" (Hannan, increasingly Boris).
As far as Boris's intervention this morning I doubt it will make much difference either way. Most people will just shrug and say it's "Boris being Boris".
This referendum comes down to:
Economic Security Vs Stopping Unlimited Immigration
Everything else is a side show adding to the gaiety of the nation.
Clinton 41 .. Trump 45
Sanders 47 .. Trump 42
http://www.myajc.com/news/news/state-regional-govt-politics/poll-clinton-vs-trump-a-tossup-between-unpopular-c/nrMhZ/
Meanwhile, Cameron, Remain's captain and opening bat, is horribly out of nick.
I also am on Leicester as topscoring team at 1000/1 from last August, so there are a few more boxes to tick off before the season closes.
I said loud and clear several times here in the run up to the election that the tory problem stopping them getting a majority was that from 92-97 onwards Libs were winning seats on the back of borrowed labour voters and the coalition meant those voters were lost, so tories could get a majority on the back of winning those seats back even if they won no seats off Labour. I said that even places like Yeovil could fall and was roundly ridiculed for my efforts.
I told you so.
That was before Cameron ("Number 10") started calling Boris a Kremlin asset and Boris started comparing the EU with Hitler.
http://www.populus.co.uk/2016/03/polls-apart/
ComRes, have also explained why they are only doing phone polling for the EU Referendum
http://www.comres.co.uk/eu-referendum-all-still-to-play-for-by-not-neck-and-neck/
It is genuinely frightening that he came so close to the leadership of the party. Under PM Brown the country would almost certainly be bankrupt by now.
Laughing so hard I may hurt myself
Manchester United's match will kick off at 3.45pm at the earliest, But City's match is still kicking off at 3pm.
Seemingly attractive Sanders would be Dukakis Mk II with knobs on. Clinton is the ugly candidate and will win ugly against an uglier Trump.
As political beauty contests go the US electorate know both Trump and Clinton are not bikini material but will opt for Clinton as looking better in evening dress.
Tipped here by Morris Dancer at 250/1! Lifetime PB Tipster award.
Mr. StJohn, very kind of you
As I said, it's been a horrendous season for me. Today, I only had winners at 7/1 and 250/1
Outstanding race, and an incredible result. I only put a tiny sum on the Verstappen bet but at those odds the return is still my best ever.
If anyone did back it and made hundreds or thousands of pounds, do please fill your basket with my books (under £10 all told): http://www.amazon.co.uk/Thaddeus-White/e/B008C6RU98/
So, that's the Button 70/1 2009 champion bet and the Verstappen 250/1 Spanish Grand Prix 2016 bet I need to remember for bragging purposes
[Normally I don't spoil races. But I don't normally get a 250/1 winner either].
Edited extra bit: and the winner had already been revealed
The message from REMAIN is this: "It's Romanians next door, with chickens out the back, or you lose your job".
And REMAIN want people to be so scared that they say, "Oh please, we're crapping ourselves with fear about losing our jobs, so it'll be fine to have Romanians not just next door, but next door the other way too, and in half the houses on our street, just so long as we keep our jobs. We really trust you on protecting our jobs, and keeping prices down, and everything else to do with the Ekonommy, so we promise we won't say anything more about Romanians and how we increasingly feel as though we're living in the Third World."
That's a tall ticket, and not everyone can be fooled all of the time.
He used Populus to conduct a phone poll and a online poll on the EURef concurrently.
@MikeSmithson
There is a hierarchy of polls as follows:
* Online polls. Currently neck-and-neck, trending to LEAVE. Online polls have disproportionate UKIP responders and are believed to have a LEAVE bias
* Phone polls. Currently slight but definite REMAIN lead. Phone polls have disproportionate affluent/Labour responders and are believed to have a REMAIN bias
* Betting odds (vote share) and vote share predictors. Slight but definite REMAIN lead. Have been wrong in the past, sometimes spectacularly, and are sensitive to polling errors.
* Betting odds (probability of win) and p(win) predictors. Very large REMAIN lead, but that's due to the nature of a p(win) prediction - a large probability of a REMAIN win is not the same as being probable that REMAIN will win by a large amount, that's not how it works.
In short, we have many indicators but all have problems and the margins are within the larger errors associated with referenda. I think LEAVE is winning and (mutatis mutandis) will win, and I think that on the-trend-is-your-friend grounds and because REMAIN is not addressing migration, but that's just me: YMMV. I don't think there's any grounds for certainty either way.
If you look at the workers-to-retirees ratio, you see some scary numbers. Until about 2010, there were approximately 4.5-5.0 retirees per worker in most developed countries. In other words, the fruits of your labour needed to pay for approximately one fifth of a retired person, with all the attendant health costs.
A combination of low birth rates and rising life expectancy is making those numbers look pretty awful. By 2050, it's 1.8 in the UK and just 1.5 in Japan. Just think; that means you need to pay for more than half a retired person every year. In Japan, you need to pay for two-thirds of one.
Now: there are lots of things we can do, and you've mentioned some of them. But we also need to push back retirement dates, and we also probably need to accept much higher taxes on workers to pay for retirees. (Or we need to accept that the workers of tomorrow aren't going to support us in the way we supported our parents.)
...
I'm quite pleased.
A suspect package has been identified in the north-west corner of Old Trafford. The police are on their way to inspect it and the area has been evacuated.
If the Wiffle Stickmeister had LeicesterFC @ 5000/1 and Verstappen @ 250/1 in a double I might, just might have endorsed that position but as it is ....
JackW
PB TOTY for Life ....
Personally, I've gone from thinking Leave would win at the turn of the year to thinking Remain will probably do it. The Remain barrage on the economy has been a lot more powerful than I imagined it would be. Is the public seriously going to vote for something which the Treasury, Chancellor of the Exchequer, Bank of England, IMF etc etc all say is going to make them poorer?
Well, maybe. If enough people see the referendum question as a proxy for "Immigration, hot or not?" then Leave will win.
I'm currently on Leave at 3.7 and 3.85.
How much are you willing to pay (Economic Security) to prevent your neighbour from being able to hire a competent Polish plumber (Stopping Unlimited Immigration) ?
But haven't we been told that online polls on the referendum are wrong because they have too many Conservative and UKIP responders ?
If they do show Remain maintaining/increasing their hefty leads then we're going to see a major modal issue.
If they show Leave leads/shrinking Remain leads, then it is squeaky bum time for Remain.
Senior Tories who are backing a 'Brexit' have rallied to support Boris Johnson after the former London Mayor compared the European Union to Hitler’s Nazi Germany.
Chris Grayling, the Leader of the House of Commons, former Cabinet ministers Iain Duncan Smith and Lord Lamont, as well as Tory MP Jacob Rees-Mogg, defended Mr Johnson’s remarks.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/15/brexit-tories-back-boris-johnson-saying-his-eunazi-germany-compa/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
All those I follow on Twitter are obviously left of centre/pro-Remain.