"Britons are more than twice as likely to say Boris Johnson would tell the truth about the EU than David Cameron (45% v 21%). Conservative voters also say Boris Johnson is more likely to tell the truth about the EU than the Prime Minister (42% v 27%). Similarly, Britons tend to say the campaigners for leaving the EU are more likely to tell the truth than the remain campaigners (39% v 24%), although a significant minority say they don’t know (38%)."
Sample highly skewed to UKIP supporters like almost all online polls.
And how big is that skewing towards UKIUP supporters ?
Please give an actual number Mike.
That would allow us to recalibrate the results.
UKIP were on 17% in that poll. Versus 12% NESV that they polled last week.
And the LD on 15%, does that mean that all pollsters since 2011 are understating the LD share of the vote ?
The National Equivalent Share of local elections tend to skew towards local issues and factors, you should never use them as a litmus test for polls, or else you end up like Paddy Ashdown.
"Britons are more than twice as likely to say Boris Johnson would tell the truth about the EU than David Cameron (45% v 21%). Conservative voters also say Boris Johnson is more likely to tell the truth about the EU than the Prime Minister (42% v 27%). Similarly, Britons tend to say the campaigners for leaving the EU are more likely to tell the truth than the remain campaigners (39% v 24%), although a significant minority say they don’t know (38%)." Conclusion = LEAVE have a major lead over REMAIN on trust.
Damning. And all self-inflicted. I'd never ever expected so see those appalling stats. And only a year ago he was a hero. Is their any trust polling from Feb/March to compare with?
Yes they are damning but why is so little notice being taken of them? We have REMAIN and Cameron as a brand, becoming the "Ratners" of the political world.
Mr. Herdson, two points of order: Rome was a republic when Gaul fell. Military conquest was the general approach of everyone at the time, castigating Rome for it is criticising them for being more successful than their rivals.
Mr. 1000, nagging into submission isn't democracy. If Leave wins, would you support Cameron getting a tiny change and then asking for another referendum?
Morris - Very many congratulations and many thanks on your fantastic 250/1 winning bet on Max Verstappen winning this afternoon's Spanish F1 Grand Prix. You must be bursting with pride , this being a once in a lifetime achievement in landing this bet bet at such enormous odds. I had £1 e.w. at 250/1 with Boylesports, thereby resulting in a profit of £333.33 .... absolutely fantastic! I assume that OGH will arrange for your immediate admission into the PB.com Greatest Tipsters of All Time Hall of Fame! Many thanks again.
Are we entering a wormhole where the following are true:
- polls you don't like are wrong - they're really invalid because they're online - they don't count because reasons - huge margins are somehow statistical flukes - anything else we can think of to rubbish them...[insert here]
"Britons are more than twice as likely to say Boris Johnson would tell the truth about the EU than David Cameron (45% v 21%). Conservative voters also say Boris Johnson is more likely to tell the truth about the EU than the Prime Minister (42% v 27%). Similarly, Britons tend to say the campaigners for leaving the EU are more likely to tell the truth than the remain campaigners (39% v 24%), although a significant minority say they don’t know (38%)."
Sample highly skewed to UKIP supporters like almost all online polls.
And how big is that skewing towards UKIUP supporters ?
Please give an actual number Mike.
That would allow us to recalibrate the results.
UKIP were on 17% in that poll. Versus 12% NESV that they polled last week.
Although that was a different election. UKIP always underperform their GE share in local elections and overperform it in EP elections.
Do we know what proportion of seats even had a UKIP candidate? I suspect the proportion of candidates in leafy shires is somewhat higher than in city centres...
"Britons are more than twice as likely to say Boris Johnson would tell the truth about the EU than David Cameron (45% v 21%). Conservative voters also say Boris Johnson is more likely to tell the truth about the EU than the Prime Minister (42% v 27%). Similarly, Britons tend to say the campaigners for leaving the EU are more likely to tell the truth than the remain campaigners (39% v 24%), although a significant minority say they don’t know (38%)." Conclusion = LEAVE have a major lead over REMAIN on trust.
Damning. And all self-inflicted. I'd never ever expected so see those appalling stats. And only a year ago he was a hero. Is their any trust polling from Feb/March to compare with?
Yes they are damning but why is so little notice being taken of them? We have REMAIN and Cameron as a brand, becoming the "Ratners" of the political world.
Because it's one poll which is out of line with others?
Good for headlines- but Boris has fixed that for today....and possibly tomorrow too....
A vote to remain is a vote for continued unification.
No it isn't.
Unless you are really proposing that a Remain vote will see the UK joining the Euro, in which case, have a lie down
I know you find these concepts difficult to understand being of limited brain power but what you need to realise is that political unification is an absolute necessity. So unless you are suggesting that the Eurozone will develop a complete separate set of political institutions then IO am afraid you are simply not facing reality.
Are we entering a wormhole where the following are true:
- polls you don't like are wrong - they're really invalid because they're online - they don't count because reasons - huge margins are somehow statistical flukes - anything else we can think of to rubbish them...[insert here]
Beats "The EU secretly controls the IMF because it pays in"
"Britons are more than twice as likely to say Boris Johnson would tell the truth about the EU than David Cameron (45% v 21%). Conservative voters also say Boris Johnson is more likely to tell the truth about the EU than the Prime Minister (42% v 27%). Similarly, Britons tend to say the campaigners for leaving the EU are more likely to tell the truth than the remain campaigners (39% v 24%), although a significant minority say they don’t know (38%)."
Sample highly skewed to UKIP supporters like almost all online polls.
And how big is that skewing towards UKIUP supporters ?
Please give an actual number Mike.
That would allow us to recalibrate the results.
UKIP were on 17% in that poll. Versus 12% NESV that they polled last week.
Sample highly skewed to UKIP supporters like almost all online polls.
And how big is that skewing towards UKIUP supporters ?
Please give an actual number Mike.
That would allow us to recalibrate the results.
UKIP were on 17% in that poll. Versus 12% NESV that they polled last week.
Although that was in a local election where UKIP have never done well.
But lets say that there's 5% too many UKIP supporters in that poll and that if they were replaced they would be by 3% pro EU and 2% anti EU others.
That would give these results:
Britons are more than twice as likely to say Boris Johnson would tell the truth about the EU than David Cameron (42% v 24%). Conservative voters also say Boris Johnson is more likely to tell the truth about the EU than the Prime Minister (41% v 28%). Similarly, Britons tend to say the campaigners for leaving the EU are more likely to tell the truth than the remain campaigners (36% v 27%), although a significant minority say they don’t know (38%)
Or if they were replaced by 4% pro EU and 1% anti EU:
Britons are more than twice as likely to say Boris Johnson would tell the truth about the EU than David Cameron (41% v 25%). Conservative voters also say Boris Johnson is more likely to tell the truth about the EU than the Prime Minister (41% v 28%). Similarly, Britons tend to say the campaigners for leaving the EU are more likely to tell the truth than the remain campaigners (35% v 28%), although a significant minority say they don’t know (38%)
So not enough to make a significant difference.
What was it OGH once told us about people who criticize polls they don't like
It's not just that. There's a feeling that online polls are skewed with too many Eurosceptic Tory voters.
Is why the BES is so useful.
I'm coming to the conclusion it is nigh on difficult to get a representative sample for GB wide polling.
I agree with your conclusion.
As to skewing to too many EUsceptic Tories aren't online polls skewed towards ABC1s whilst EUsceptic Tories skewed towards C2DEs ?
"Britons are more than twice as likely to say Boris Johnson would tell the truth about the EU than David Cameron (45% v 21%). Conservative voters also say Boris Johnson is more likely to tell the truth about the EU than the Prime Minister (42% v 27%). Similarly, Britons tend to say the campaigners for leaving the EU are more likely to tell the truth than the remain campaigners (39% v 24%), although a significant minority say they don’t know (38%)." Conclusion = LEAVE have a major lead over REMAIN on trust.
Damning. And all self-inflicted. I'd never ever expected so see those appalling stats. And only a year ago he was a hero. Is their any trust polling from Feb/March to compare with?
Yes they are damning but why is so little notice being taken of them? We have REMAIN and Cameron as a brand, becoming the "Ratners" of the political world.
Because it's one poll which is out of line with others?
Good for headlines- but Boris has fixed that for today....and possibly tomorrow too....
It's not actually out of line, Cameron's personal numbers have been scrapping close to his 2012 lows on a number of polls, not just ComRes.
"Britons are more than twice as likely to say Boris Johnson would tell the truth about the EU than David Cameron (45% v 21%). Conservative voters also say Boris Johnson is more likely to tell the truth about the EU than the Prime Minister (42% v 27%). Similarly, Britons tend to say the campaigners for leaving the EU are more likely to tell the truth than the remain campaigners (39% v 24%), although a significant minority say they don’t know (38%)." Conclusion = LEAVE have a major lead over REMAIN on trust.
Damning. And all self-inflicted. I'd never ever expected so see those appalling stats. And only a year ago he was a hero. Is their any trust polling from Feb/March to compare with?
Yes they are damning but why is so little notice being taken of them? We have REMAIN and Cameron as a brand, becoming the "Ratners" of the political world.
Because it's one poll which is out of line with others? Good for headlines- but Boris has fixed that for today....and possibly tomorrow too....
It is not one poll out of line. The GMB/Yougov poll also had Boris ahead of Cameron on trust. So this Comres is not out of line - but may be to your view?
"Britons are more than twice as likely to say Boris Johnson would tell the truth about the EU than David Cameron (45% v 21%). Conservative voters also say Boris Johnson is more likely to tell the truth about the EU than the Prime Minister (42% v 27%). Similarly, Britons tend to say the campaigners for leaving the EU are more likely to tell the truth than the remain campaigners (39% v 24%), although a significant minority say they don’t know (38%)." Conclusion = LEAVE have a major lead over REMAIN on trust.
Damning. And all self-inflicted. I'd never ever expected so see those appalling stats. And only a year ago he was a hero. Is their any trust polling from Feb/March to compare with?
Yes they are damning but why is so little notice being taken of them? We have REMAIN and Cameron as a brand, becoming the "Ratners" of the political world.
Because it's one poll which is out of line with others? Good for headlines- but Boris has fixed that for today....and possibly tomorrow too....
It is not one poll out of line. The GMB/Yougov poll also had Boris ahead of Cameron on trust. So this Comres is not out of line - but may be to your view?
Are we entering a wormhole where the following are true:
- polls you don't like are wrong - they're really invalid because they're online - they don't count because reasons - huge margins are somehow statistical flukes - anything else we can think of to rubbish them...[insert here]
Or you could just say that the signal to noise ratio here is pitiful at the moment. When even I start giving up, its getting pretty bad.
Seeing as I am on a roll I am going to have a sneaky £20 on Pochettino being gone by Christmas. Given the way this last month has gone at Spurs, if he does not start next season well the press is going to smell blood and Daniel Levy is not a patient man.
Are we entering a wormhole where the following are true:
- polls you don't like are wrong - they're really invalid because they're online - they don't count because reasons - huge margins are somehow statistical flukes - anything else we can think of to rubbish them...[insert here]
Or you could just say that the signal to noise ratio here is pitiful at the moment. When even I start giving up, its getting pretty bad.
I'm just enjoying the spluttering from Remainers here.
It's all WRONG!!! Like a Jeremy Kyle lie detector result.
Sample highly skewed to UKIP supporters like almost all online polls.
.
.
It's not just that. There's a feeling that online polls are skewed with too many Eurosceptic Tory voters.
Is why the BES is so useful.
I'm coming to the conclusion it is nigh on difficult to get a representative sample for GB wide polling.
I agree with your conclusion.
As to skewing to too many EUsceptic Tories aren't online polls skewed towards ABC1s whilst EUsceptic Tories skewed towards C2DEs ?
Anyway I have to go so good evening.
Something like that. I know of at least one pollster that ones to introduce a 75 year plus sub sample.
I think the pattern is that women and OAPs are the most risk averse groups out there. That they will back the status quo, and they're not being captured properly.
We saw it with the final indyref polls, with most overstating Yes.
"Britons are more than twice as likely to say Boris Johnson would tell the truth about the EU than David Cameron (45% v 21%). Conservative voters also say Boris Johnson is more likely to tell the truth about the EU than the Prime Minister (42% v 27%). Similarly, Britons tend to say the campaigners for leaving the EU are more likely to tell the truth than the remain campaigners (39% v 24%), although a significant minority say they don’t know (38%)."
Sample highly skewed to UKIP supporters like almost all online polls.
And how big is that skewing towards UKIUP supporters ?
Please give an actual number Mike.
That would allow us to recalibrate the results.
UKIP were on 17% in that poll. Versus 12% NESV that they polled last week.
Actually in the PCC elections UKIP averaged 15.8%
The 12% figure comes from two separate calculations - one by Prof John Curtice for the BBC the other by Profs Rallings & Thrasher.
"Britons are more than twice as likely to say Boris Johnson would tell the truth about the EU than David Cameron (45% v 21%). Conservative voters also say Boris Johnson is more likely to tell the truth about the EU than the Prime Minister (42% v 27%). Similarly, Britons tend to say the campaigners for leaving the EU are more likely to tell the truth than the remain campaigners (39% v 24%), although a significant minority say they don’t know (38%)."
Sample highly skewed to UKIP supporters like almost all online polls.
And how big is that skewing towards UKIUP supporters ?
Please give an actual number Mike.
That would allow us to recalibrate the results.
UKIP were on 17% in that poll. Versus 12% NESV that they polled last week.
That would give these results:
Britons are more than twice as likely to say Boris Johnson would tell the truth about the EU than David Cameron (42% v 24%). Conservative voters also say Boris Johnson is more likely to tell the truth about the EU than the Prime Minister (41% v 28%). Similarly, Britons tend to say the campaigners for leaving the EU are more likely to tell the truth than the remain campaigners (36% v 27%), although a significant minority say they don’t know (38%)
Or if they were replaced by 4% pro EU and 1% anti EU:
Britons are more than twice as likely to say Boris Johnson would tell the truth about the EU than David Cameron (41% v 25%). Conservative voters also say Boris Johnson is more likely to tell the truth about the EU than the Prime Minister (41% v 28%). Similarly, Britons tend to say the campaigners for leaving the EU are more likely to tell the truth than the remain campaigners (35% v 28%), although a significant minority say they don’t know (38%)
So not enough to make a significant difference.
What was it OGH once told us about people who criticize polls they don't like
It's not just that. There's a feeling that online polls are skewed with too many Eurosceptic Tory voters.
Is why the BES is so useful.
I'm coming to the conclusion it is nigh on difficult to get a representative sample for GB wide polling.
I believe there's a poll out on the 25th of next month which is quite likely to be representative. Perhaps we should all wait for that.
You mean a poll more representative than the referendum on the 23rd, two days earlier. Now that has whet my appetite.
Are we entering a wormhole where the following are true:
- polls you don't like are wrong - they're really invalid because they're online - they don't count because reasons - huge margins are somehow statistical flukes - anything else we can think of to rubbish them...[insert here]
Or you could just say that the signal to noise ratio here is pitiful at the moment. When even I start giving up, its getting pretty bad.
I'm just enjoying the spluttering from Remainers here.
It's all WRONG!!! Like a Jeremy Kyle lie detector result.
Isn;t it the editorial board of this site who like to say an incorrect poll is simply a poll you don;t like the result of.
Remain's campaign seems to be shouting "£4,300" at the top of their voices, and if anyone points out how fabricated it is, to respond by shouting louder. The very crux of the Remain campaign is a big lie, and every Remain politician backing the number is a disgrace.
LOL
Boris "carved £350 million" into a piece of steel and if anyone points out how fabricated it is, they respond by shouting louder. The very crux of the BREXIT campaign is a big lie, and every BREXIT politician backing the number is a disgrace.
LOL
Cameron "carved £4,300" into a piece of steel and if anyone points out how fabricated it is, they respond by shouting louder. The very crux of the REMAIN campaign is a big lie, and every REMAIN politician backing the number is a disgrace.
You see we can all bleat, bleat, bleat.
Big difference is that the National Statistical Authority have ruled twice that LEAVE is wrong to use the the £350m figure and both Cummings and Elliot have had to face the wrath of the Tory chaired Commons Treasury committee.
There has been no intervention on the £4300.
All they do is whine and tell lies
No intervention doesn't mean it's correct, does it?
Did the number of households question (2015 vs 2030) get resolved on PB last night?
"Britons are more than twice as likely to say Boris Johnson would tell the truth about the EU than David Cameron (45% v 21%). Conservative voters also say Boris Johnson is more likely to tell the truth about the EU than the Prime Minister (42% v 27%). Similarly, Britons tend to say the campaigners for leaving the EU are more likely to tell the truth than the remain campaigners (39% v 24%), although a significant minority say they don’t know (38%)." Conclusion = LEAVE have a major lead over REMAIN on trust.
Damning. And all self-inflicted. I'd never ever expected so see those appalling stats. And only a year ago he was a hero. Is their any trust polling from Feb/March to compare with?
Yes they are damning but why is so little notice being taken of them? We have REMAIN and Cameron as a brand, becoming the "Ratners" of the political world.
Because it's one poll which is out of line with others?
Good for headlines- but Boris has fixed that for today....and possibly tomorrow too....
Except that Boris's thesis is perfectly valid and arguable. Here's LIFE magazine from 1941, and Hitler arguing for... a united Europe.
"Britons are more than twice as likely to say Boris Johnson would tell the truth about the EU than David Cameron (45% v 21%). Conservative voters also say Boris Johnson is more likely to tell the truth about the EU than the Prime Minister (42% v 27%). Similarly, Britons tend to say the campaigners for leaving the EU are more likely to tell the truth than the remain campaigners (39% v 24%), although a significant minority say they don’t know (38%)."
Sample highly skewed to UKIP supporters like almost all online polls.
And how big is that skewing towards UKIUP supporters ?
Please give an actual number Mike.
That would allow us to recalibrate the results.
UKIP were on 17% in that poll. Versus 12% NESV that they polled last week.
Actually in the PCC elections UKIP averaged 15.8%
The 12% figure comes from two separate calculations - one by Prof John Curtice for the BBC the other by Profs Rallings & Thrasher.
UKIP is now 4th party based on May 5th elections
I love the way you ignore the PCC elections because they don't match your preconceived ideas.
Remain's campaign seems to be shouting "£4,300" at the top of their voices, and if anyone points out how fabricated it is, to respond by shouting louder. The very crux of the Remain campaign is a big lie, and every Remain politician backing the number is a disgrace.
LOL
Boris "carved £350 million" into a piece of steel and if anyone points out how fabricated it is, they respond by shouting louder. The very crux of the BREXIT campaign is a big lie, and every BREXIT politician backing the number is a disgrace.
LOL
Cameron "carved £4,300" into a piece of steel and if anyone points out how fabricated it is, they respond by shouting louder. The very crux of the REMAIN campaign is a big lie, and every REMAIN politician backing the number is a disgrace.
You see we can all bleat, bleat, bleat.
Big difference is that the National Statistical Authority have ruled twice that LEAVE is wrong to use the the £350m figure and both Cummings and Elliot have had to face the wrath of the Tory chaired Commons Treasury committee.
There has been no intervention on the £4300.
All they do is whine and tell lies
The £4300 figure is garbage just as much as the £350 million figure.
I notice that not one of Boris's detractors has actually said he is wrong, and that Europe is NOT trying to build a superstate.
And that is why what he said is quite clever.
That is not the question at hand. Everyone knows that is what the EU are trying to do because they are quite open about it. If Boris had stuck with analogies to the Roman Empire, Holy Roman Empire, Hapsburgs or Napoleon that would have been fine. It would have caused no end of debate but it would have been a reasonable assertion.
But equating the EU with one of the greatest mass murderers in world history just destroys any argument he might reasonably have made. It was a stupid mistake (whether intentional or not) and not one that should be supported or excused.
Sorry but I see no logic here. Why on earth leave an analogy out if it's as valid historically as the others you are using? To avoid upsetting the professionally offended?
The first time I heard the Hitler comparison, many years ago, I thought 'Oh, I've never thought of it that way, I suppose it's true in a way'.
I find it extraordinary that you find it difficult to understand why the analogy is the most ridiculous thing to have come out of the EUref debate. And it is a strong field.
I think it's a valid analogy that was made in the full knowledge it would 'blow up' into a furore. Like a product that has different perceived value as it crosses a border. Whether it has been a disaster or a success, I suppose even if we see more polling soon we won't ever really know. I'm not saying it was a master-stroke (unlike certain PBers regarding the Obama drama), but equally I don't see the damage. No-one is accusing Boris is being racist or anti-Semitic.
No, but they are accusing him of being an offensive idiot and blowing a complaint out of all proportion.
Hitler - and Napoleon and Charles V and Julius Caesar and anyone else you choose to throw into the mix - attempted to build their empires by force, against the will of occupied and oppressed people. The EU has, however imperfectly at times, been built by democratic countries whose governments are accountable to elected parliaments and whose treaties have in some instances been put directly to electorates.
Britain is currently debating withdrawal. That wasn't an option Hitler gave Poland, Napoleon gave Spain, Charles gave the Netherlands or Caesar gave Gaul. Those who can't see the difference aren't looking, probably deliberately.
Haven't the EU stepped in deliberately to change the Government of some of the countries?
"Britons are more than twice as likely to say Boris Johnson would tell the truth about the EU than David Cameron (45% v 21%). Conservative voters also say Boris Johnson is more likely to tell the truth about the EU than the Prime Minister (42% v 27%). Similarly, Britons tend to say the campaigners for leaving the EU are more likely to tell the truth than the remain campaigners (39% v 24%), although a significant minority say they don’t know (38%)." Conclusion = LEAVE have a major lead over REMAIN on trust.
Damning. And all self-inflicted. I'd never ever expected so see those appalling stats. And only a year ago he was a hero. Is their any trust polling from Feb/March to compare with?
Yes they are damning but why is so little notice being taken of them? We have REMAIN and Cameron as a brand, becoming the "Ratners" of the political world.
Because it's one poll which is out of line with others?
Good for headlines- but Boris has fixed that for today....and possibly tomorrow too....
Except that Boris's thesis is perfectly valid and arguable. Here's LIFE magazine from 1941, and Hitler arguing for... a united Europe.
I'm not quite sure the EU invading Western Europe through the Ardennes with regulated straightened bananas is quite in the same league as Wehmacht Panzers but it's a novel concept and I admire your dexterity in proposing the analogy.
"Britons are more than twice as likely to say Boris Johnson would tell the truth about the EU than David Cameron (45% v 21%). Conservative voters also say Boris Johnson is more likely to tell the truth about the EU than the Prime Minister (42% v 27%). Similarly, Britons tend to say the campaigners for leaving the EU are more likely to tell the truth than the remain campaigners (39% v 24%), although a significant minority say they don’t know (38%)."
Sample highly skewed to UKIP supporters like almost all online polls.
And how big is that skewing towards UKIUP supporters ?
Please give an actual number Mike.
That would allow us to recalibrate the results.
UKIP were on 17% in that poll. Versus 12% NESV that they polled last week.
Actually in the PCC elections UKIP averaged 15.8%
The 12% figure comes from two separate calculations - one by Prof John Curtice for the BBC the other by Profs Rallings & Thrasher.
UKIP is now 4th party based on May 5th elections
OGH, you are close to Paddy Ashdown territory, based on the National Equivalent Vote of 2013 the LD were forecasted to win 50 MP's in the GE :
To settle if the Comres poll about Cameron's Trust numbers is an outlier or not lets see what other polls say:
Yougov, trust Cameron on EU: -47 , last place Ipsos Mori, satisfaction with Cameron: -19, last place
Aren't satisfaction and trust two different things?
They are, but it's the closest I can find over the past month of polling, not many pollsters ask about Cameron himself and not many polls have been conducted after the local elections.
"Britons are more than twice as likely to say Boris Johnson would tell the truth about the EU than David Cameron (45% v 21%). Conservative voters also say Boris Johnson is more likely to tell the truth about the EU than the Prime Minister (42% v 27%). Similarly, Britons tend to say the campaigners for leaving the EU are more likely to tell the truth than the remain campaigners (39% v 24%), although a significant minority say they don’t know (38%)."
Sample highly skewed to UKIP supporters like almost all online polls.
And how big is that skewing towards UKIUP supporters ?
Please give an actual number Mike.
That would allow us to recalibrate the results.
UKIP were on 17% in that poll. Versus 12% NESV that they polled last week.
Actually in the PCC elections UKIP averaged 15.8%
The 12% figure comes from two separate calculations - one by Prof John Curtice for the BBC the other by Profs Rallings & Thrasher.
UKIP is now 4th party based on May 5th elections
OGH, you are close to Paddy Ashdown territory, based on the National Equivalent Vote of 2013 the LD were forecasted to win 50 MP's in the GE :
"Britons are more than twice as likely to say Boris Johnson would tell the truth about the EU than David Cameron (45% v 21%). Conservative voters also say Boris Johnson is more likely to tell the truth about the EU than the Prime Minister (42% v 27%). Similarly, Britons tend to say the campaigners for leaving the EU are more likely to tell the truth than the remain campaigners (39% v 24%), although a significant minority say they don’t know (38%)."
Sample highly skewed to UKIP supporters like almost all online polls.
And how big is that skewing towards UKIUP supporters ?
Please give an actual number Mike.
That would allow us to recalibrate the results.
UKIP were on 17% in that poll. Versus 12% NESV that they polled last week.
Actually in the PCC elections UKIP averaged 15.8%
The 12% figure comes from two separate calculations - one by Prof John Curtice for the BBC the other by Profs Rallings & Thrasher.
UKIP is now 4th party based on May 5th elections
OGH, you are close to Paddy Ashdown territory, based on the National Equivalent Vote of 2013 the LD were forecasted to win 50 MP's in the GE :
Well done to Murray for winning Rome. As I predicted last night he will never get a better chance to beat Djokovic. Nihiskori is a dark horse for the French IMO.
Remain's campaign seems to be shouting "£4,300" at the top of their voices, and if anyone points out how fabricated it is, to respond by shouting louder. The very crux of the Remain campaign is a big lie, and every Remain politician backing the number is a disgrace.
LOL
Boris "carved £350 million" into a piece of steel and if anyone points out how fabricated it is, they respond by shouting louder. The very crux of the BREXIT campaign is a big lie, and every BREXIT politician backing the number is a disgrace.
LOL
Cameron "carved £4,300" into a piece of steel and if anyone points out how fabricated it is, they respond by shouting louder. The very crux of the REMAIN campaign is a big lie, and every REMAIN politician backing the number is a disgrace.
You see we can all bleat, bleat, bleat.
Big difference is that the National Statistical Authority have ruled twice that LEAVE is wrong to use the the £350m figure and both Cummings and Elliot have had to face the wrath of the Tory chaired Commons Treasury committee.
There has been no intervention on the £4300.
All they do is whine and tell lies
The £4300 figure is garbage just as much as the £350 million figure.
Even more so - as it is founded on hundreds of 'if's' 'maybe's, 'might's, and 'possibly's'. The £350 million is just taking the gross figure rather than the net - and the effect is that we could only build a hospital every two weeks rather than one every week.
PS - UK budget contributions are going up by £2 billion this year and the EU want to increase the budget by 20% - which would be an additional £2 billion every year - although that won't be pointed out until after the referendum date.
As much as Djokovic is super human, he cannot defy gravity JackW. The matches against Nadal and Nishikori were brutal. Yesterdays match against Nishikori was one of the cleanest ball striking contests I have ever seen which finished close to midnight. It was impossible to think Novak could be at all competitive today.
I've put on a ton on Federer for the French at 40's and still expect him to go deep to cash out, but I think Nishikori is the most likely to upset Djokovic. He seems to have matured this summer.
Remain's campaign seems to be shouting "£4,300" at the top of their voices, and if anyone points out how fabricated it is, to respond by shouting louder. The very crux of the Remain campaign is a big lie, and every Remain politician backing the number is a disgrace.
LOL
Boris "carved £350 million" into a piece of steel and if anyone points out how fabricated it is, they respond by shouting louder. The very crux of the BREXIT campaign is a big lie, and every BREXIT politician backing the number is a disgrace.
LOL
Cameron "carved £4,300" into a piece of steel and if anyone points out how fabricated it is, they respond by shouting louder. The very crux of the REMAIN campaign is a big lie, and every REMAIN politician backing the number is a disgrace.
You see we can all bleat, bleat, bleat.
Big difference is that the National Statistical Authority have ruled twice that LEAVE is wrong to use the the £350m figure and both Cummings and Elliot have had to face the wrath of the Tory chaired Commons Treasury committee.
There has been no intervention on the £4300.
All they do is whine and tell lies
The £4300 figure is garbage just as much as the £350 million figure.
Even more so - as it is founded on hundreds of 'if's' 'maybe's, 'might's, and 'possibly's'. The £350 million is just taking the gross figure rather than the net - and the effect is that we could only build a hospital every two weeks rather than one every week.
PS - UK budget contributions are going up by £2 billion this year and the EU want to increase the budget by 20% - which would be an additional £2 billion every year - although that won't be pointed out until after the referendum date.
Leave ought to pluck an imaginary figure out of thin air - let's call it 30 billion, and say that's what we'll be paying in 10 years time.
When Remain howls they can turn around and say, OK Dave, How much do YOU think we'll be paying??
"Britons are more than twice as likely to say Boris Johnson would tell the truth about the EU than David Cameron (45% v 21%). Conservative voters also say Boris Johnson is more likely to tell the truth about the EU than the Prime Minister (42% v 27%). Similarly, Britons tend to say the campaigners for leaving the EU are more likely to tell the truth than the remain campaigners (39% v 24%), although a significant minority say they don’t know (38%)." Conclusion = LEAVE have a major lead over REMAIN on trust.
Damning. And all self-inflicted. I'd never ever expected so see those appalling stats. And only a year ago he was a hero. Is their any trust polling from Feb/March to compare with?
Yes they are damning but why is so little notice being taken of them? We have REMAIN and Cameron as a brand, becoming the "Ratners" of the political world.
Because it's one poll which is out of line with others?
Good for headlines- but Boris has fixed that for today....and possibly tomorrow too....
Except that Boris's thesis is perfectly valid and arguable. Here's LIFE magazine from 1941, and Hitler arguing for... a united Europe.
I'm not quite sure the EU invading Western Europe through the Ardennes with regulated straightened bananas is quite in the same league as Wehmacht Panzers but it's a novel concept and I admire your dexterity in proposing the analogy.
I owned Twitter with that deft bit of research and made Hugo Rifkind look a twat. And I did it while packing for my next Cornish hotel.
Absolutely gorgeous down here today. I'm doing a Times travel piece on west Cornwall. So far the food is noticeably better than it was in Lyon, last week.
I don't know if it's on your itinerary but a visit to the Gurnard's Head Hotel won't disappoint in the food department, can't speak for the accommodation.
The Garrack Hotel in St Ives is also worth a visit - again, good food and the view across the bay from some of the rooms is magnificent.
Online Polls are biased because they are infested with Kippers.
Hitler.
It is obvious that the LDs will retain their seats in Southern England in Tory/Lib marginals in the forthcoming elrction
I'd Sky on in the background from 7am-3pm and I didn't hear a Tory knock Boris - I heard Yvette and Benn, but no blue on blue. Maybe I missed it - or maybe not post WAR!!!!
As much as Djokovic is super human, he cannot defy gravity JackW. The matches against Nadal and Nishikori were brutal. Yesterdays match against Nishikori was one of the cleanest ball striking contests I have ever seen which finished close to midnight. It was impossible to think Novak could be at all competitive today.
I've put on a ton on Federer for the French at 40's and still expect him to go deep to cash out, but I think Nishikori is the most likely to upset Djokovic. He seems to have matured this summer.
Seeing as I am on a roll I am going to have a sneaky £20 on Pochettino being gone by Christmas. Given the way this last month has gone at Spurs, if he does not start next season well the press is going to smell blood and Daniel Levy is not a patient man.
SO, If you're still around. May I ask what the bet was and what odds you got betting on Spurs choking the last few games?
My beta chrome widget is pretty much ready. I am packing up to move house at the moment, but will try and get it uploaded to chrome webstore as soon as possible, probably next weekend (it seems to work on PB vanillaforums as well but that isnt well tested yet)
"Britons are more than twice as likely to say Boris Johnson would tell the truth about the EU than David Cameron (45% v 21%). Conservative voters also say Boris Johnson is more likely to tell the truth about the EU than the Prime Minister (42% v 27%). Similarly, Britons tend to say the campaigners for leaving the EU are more likely to tell the truth than the remain campaigners (39% v 24%), although a significant minority say they don’t know (38%)."
Sample highly skewed to UKIP supporters like almost all online polls.
And how big is that skewing towards UKIUP supporters ?
Please give an actual number Mike.
That would allow us to recalibrate the results.
UKIP were on 17% in that poll. Versus 12% NESV that they polled last week.
Actually in the PCC elections UKIP averaged 15.8%
The 12% figure comes from two separate calculations - one by Prof John Curtice for the BBC the other by Profs Rallings & Thrasher.
UKIP is now 4th party based on May 5th elections
OGH, you are close to Paddy Ashdown territory, based on the National Equivalent Vote of 2013 the LD were forecasted to win 50 MP's in the GE :
The comments on that piece by RodCrosby are a peach!
A few old favourites there including ALP.
Rod may have some fairly rum ideas about 20th century history, but what a forecaster. I may be tempted to put some of todays winnings on Trump, despite Jacks ARSE for US.
So not content with calling for foreign commentators to shut up, independent observers to be sacked, and Hitler, Brexiteers are now comforting each other by suggesting they put their fingers in their ears and sing LA, LA, LA, I can't hear you.
"Britons are more than twice as likely to say Boris Johnson would tell the truth about the EU than David Cameron (45% v 21%). Conservative voters also say Boris Johnson is more likely to tell the truth about the EU than the Prime Minister (42% v 27%). Similarly, Britons tend to say the campaigners for leaving the EU are more likely to tell the truth than the remain campaigners (39% v 24%), although a significant minority say they don’t know (38%)." Conclusion = LEAVE have a major lead over REMAIN on trust.
Damning. And all self-inflicted. I'd never ever expected so see those appalling stats. And only a year ago he was a hero. Is their any trust polling from Feb/March to compare with?
Yes they are damning but why is so little notice being taken of them? We have REMAIN and Cameron as a brand, becoming the "Ratners" of the political world.
Because it's one poll which is out of line with others?
Good for headlines- but Boris has fixed that for today....and possibly tomorrow too....
Except that Boris's thesis is perfectly valid and arguable. Here's LIFE magazine from 1941, and Hitler arguing for... a united Europe.
Absolutely gorgeous down here today. I'm doing a Times travel piece on west Cornwall. So far the food is noticeably better than it was in Lyon, last week.
I don't know if it's on your itinerary but a visit to the Gurnard's Head Hotel won't disappoint in the food department, can't speak for the accommodation.
The Garrack Hotel in St Ives is also worth a visit - again, good food and the view across the bay from some of the rooms is magnificent.
I hope The Tresanton is still doing well in St Mawes. William Shawcross' wife, Olga Polizzi, owns it and the food used to be wonderful. Had my wedding reception there.
Remain's campaign seems to be shouting "£4,300" at the top of their voices, and if anyone points out how fabricated it is, to respond by shouting louder. The very crux of the Remain campaign is a big lie, and every Remain politician backing the number is a disgrace.
LOL
Boris "carved £350 million" into a piece of steel and if anyone points out how fabricated it is, they respond by shouting louder. The very crux of the BREXIT campaign is a big lie, and every BREXIT politician backing the number is a disgrace.
LOL
Cameron "carved £4,300" into a piece of steel and if anyone points out how fabricated it is, they respond by shouting louder. The very crux of the REMAIN campaign is a big lie, and every REMAIN politician backing the number is a disgrace.
You see we can all bleat, bleat, bleat.
Big difference is that the National Statistical Authority have ruled twice that LEAVE is wrong to use the the £350m figure and both Cummings and Elliot have had to face the wrath of the Tory chaired Commons Treasury committee.
There has been no intervention on the £4300.
All they do is whine and tell lies
The £4300 figure is garbage just as much as the £350 million figure.
Even more so - as it is founded on hundreds of 'if's' 'maybe's, 'might's, and 'possibly's'. The £350 million is just taking the gross figure rather than the net - and the effect is that we could only build a hospital every two weeks rather than one every week.
PS - UK budget contributions are going up by £2 billion this year and the EU want to increase the budget by 20% - which would be an additional £2 billion every year - although that won't be pointed out until after the referendum date.
Leave ought to pluck an imaginary figure out of thin air - let's call it 30 billion, and say that's what we'll be paying in 10 years time.
When Remain howls they can turn around and say, OK Dave, How much do YOU think we'll be paying??
What makes this all so entertaining is that Remain keep claiming VICTORY!! SLAM DUNK!!! as each killer authority figure is wheeled out, and then the polls go Meh or Bugger Off.
I'm struggling to think of a single Leaver who's predicted we'll win - so everything is an upside as Remain panic. The STimes article was hilarious. It'd be hard to read the quotes any other way - and as for asserting they're 10pts ahead in their secret polling. Really?
Whomever briefed that out needs a good slap. It was so all transparent. Cameron talking up Boris as his successor? Who are they kidding, not many with a vote.
"Britons are more than twice as likely to say Boris Johnson would tell the truth about the EU than David Cameron (45% v 21%). Conservative voters also say Boris Johnson is more likely to tell the truth about the EU than the Prime Minister (42% v 27%). Similarly, Britons tend to say the campaigners for leaving the EU are more likely to tell the truth than the remain campaigners (39% v 24%), although a significant minority say they don’t know (38%)."
Sample highly skewed to UKIP supporters like almost all online polls.
And how big is that skewing towards UKIUP supporters ?
Please give an actual number Mike.
That would allow us to recalibrate the results.
UKIP were on 17% in that poll. Versus 12% NESV that they polled last week.
Actually in the PCC elections UKIP averaged 15.8%
The 12% figure comes from two separate calculations - one by Prof John Curtice for the BBC the other by Profs Rallings & Thrasher.
UKIP is now 4th party based on May 5th elections
OGH, you are close to Paddy Ashdown territory, based on the National Equivalent Vote of 2013 the LD were forecasted to win 50 MP's in the GE :
Rod also unwaveringly stood by his NOM prediction for 2010, as unlikely as it looked.
Jack's Arse and Rod Crosby are the two best predictors for pbCOM. Our very own Nate Silvers.
Also, Rod was very gracious to me about my mum a few weeks ago. I do not hold his very odd views about WW2 against him one jot. PbCOM is full of eccentrics and long may it last.
"Britons are more than twice as likely to say Boris Johnson would tell the truth about the EU than David Cameron (45% v 21%). Conservative voters also say Boris Johnson is more likely to tell the truth about the EU than the Prime Minister (42% v 27%). Similarly, Britons tend to say the campaigners for leaving the EU are more likely to tell the truth than the remain campaigners (39% v 24%), although a significant minority say they don’t know (38%)."
Sample highly skewed to UKIP supporters like almost all online polls.
And how big is that skewing towards UKIUP supporters ?
Please give an actual number Mike.
That would allow us to recalibrate the results.
UKIP were on 17% in that poll. Versus 12% NESV that they polled last week.
Actually in the PCC elections UKIP averaged 15.8%
The 12% figure comes from two separate calculations - one by Prof John Curtice for the BBC the other by Profs Rallings & Thrasher.
UKIP is now 4th party based on May 5th elections
OGH, you are close to Paddy Ashdown territory, based on the National Equivalent Vote of 2013 the LD were forecasted to win 50 MP's in the GE :
The comments on that piece by RodCrosby are a peach!
A few old favourites there including ALP.
Rod may have some fairly rum ideas about 20th century history, but what a forecaster. I may be tempted to put some of todays winnings on Trump, despite Jacks ARSE for US.
"Britons are more than twice as likely to say Boris Johnson would tell the truth about the EU than David Cameron (45% v 21%). Conservative voters also say Boris Johnson is more likely to tell the truth about the EU than the Prime Minister (42% v 27%). Similarly, Britons tend to say the campaigners for leaving the EU are more likely to tell the truth than the remain campaigners (39% v 24%), although a significant minority say they don’t know (38%)."
Sample highly skewed to UKIP supporters like almost all online polls.
And how big is that skewing towards UKIUP supporters ?
Please give an actual number Mike.
That would allow us to recalibrate the results.
UKIP were on 17% in that poll. Versus 12% NESV that they polled last week.
Actually in the PCC elections UKIP averaged 15.8%
The 12% figure comes from two separate calculations - one by Prof John Curtice for the BBC the other by Profs Rallings & Thrasher.
UKIP is now 4th party based on May 5th elections
OGH, you are close to Paddy Ashdown territory, based on the National Equivalent Vote of 2013 the LD were forecasted to win 50 MP's in the GE :
Saying that the polls must be totally wrong because of local election results is a fools game.
Do not take away hope from the Lib Dems it is all they have.
The problem with being a party stalwart is it makes it impossible to understand how many vote for one party locally because they do a nice constituency surgery and make sure the bins are emptied, and yet vote for a different party in national government to make sure the country doesnt go bankrupt.
Remain's campaign seems to be shouting "£4,300" at the top of their voices, and if anyone points out how fabricated it is, to respond by shouting louder. The very crux of the Remain campaign is a big lie, and every Remain politician backing the number is a disgrace.
LOL
Boris "carved £350 million" into a piece of steel and if anyone points out how fabricated it is, they respond by shouting louder. The very crux of the BREXIT campaign is a big lie, and every BREXIT politician backing the number is a disgrace.
LOL
Cameron "carved £4,300" into a piece of steel and if anyone points out how fabricated it is, they respond by shouting louder. The very crux of the REMAIN campaign is a big lie, and every REMAIN politician backing the number is a disgrace. ...
Big difference is that the National Statistical Authority have ruled twice that LEAVE is wrong to use the the £350m figure and both Cummings and Elliot have had to face the wrath of the Tory chaired Commons Treasury committee. ...
The £4300 figure is garbage just as much as the £350 million figure.
Even more so - as it is founded on hundreds of 'if's' 'maybe's, 'might's, and 'possibly's'. The £350 million is just taking the gross figure rather than the net - and the effect is that we could only build a hospital every two weeks rather than one every week.
PS - UK budget contributions are going up by £2 billion this year and the EU want to increase the budget by 20% - which would be an additional £2 billion every year - although that won't be pointed out until after the referendum date.
Leave ought to pluck an imaginary figure out of thin air - let's call it 30 billion, and say that's what we'll be paying in 10 years time. When Remain howls they can turn around and say, OK Dave, How much do YOU think we'll be paying??
What makes this all so entertaining is that Remain keep claiming VICTORY!! SLAM DUNK!!! as each killer authority figure is wheeled out, and then the polls go Meh or Bugger Off. I'm struggling to think of a single Leaver who's predicted we'll win - so everything is an upside as Remain panic. The STimes article was hilarious. It'd be hard to read the quotes any other way - and as for asserting they're 10pts ahead in their secret polling. Really? Whomever briefed that out needs a good slap. It was so all transparent. Cameron talking up Boris as his successor? Who are they kidding, not many with a vote.
Andrew Neil said that the information came from Andrew Cooper.
"Britons are more than twice as likely to say Boris Johnson would tell the truth about the EU than David Cameron (45% v 21%). Conservative voters also say Boris Johnson is more likely to tell the truth about the EU than the Prime Minister (42% v 27%). Similarly, Britons tend to say the campaigners for leaving the EU are more likely to tell the truth than the remain campaigners (39% v 24%), although a significant minority say they don’t know (38%)."
Sample highly skewed to UKIP supporters like almost all online polls.
And how big is that skewing towards UKIUP supporters ?
Please give an actual number Mike.
That would allow us to recalibrate the results.
UKIP were on 17% in that poll. Versus 12% NESV that they polled last week.
Actually in the PCC elections UKIP averaged 15.8%
The 12% figure comes from two separate calculations - one by Prof John Curtice for the BBC the other by Profs Rallings & Thrasher.
UKIP is now 4th party based on May 5th elections
OGH, you are close to Paddy Ashdown territory, based on the National Equivalent Vote of 2013 the LD were forecasted to win 50 MP's in the GE :
Saying that the polls must be totally wrong because of local election results is a fools game.
Do not take away hope from the Lib Dems it is all they have.
The problem with being a party stalwart is it makes it impossible to understand how many vote for one party locally because they do a nice constituency surgery and make sure the bins are emptied, and yet vote for a different party in national government to make sure the country doesnt go bankrupt.
Not sure whether blocking anyone will work on a site Which still shows open nesting. No idea why it started but it makes threads night impossible to read. Have tried all to get it back to how it was. I didn't change any settings it started this time a week. Ago and it's still fecked.
Rod also unwaveringly stood by his NOM prediction for 2010, as unlikely as it looked.
Jack's Arse and Rod Crosby are the two best predictors for pbCOM. Our very own Nate Silvers.
Also, Rod was very gracious to me about my mum a few weeks ago. I do not hold his very odd views about WW2 against him one jot. PbCOM is full of eccentrics and long may it last.
"Britons are more than twice as likely to say Boris Johnson would tell the truth about the EU than David Cameron (45% v 21%). Conservative voters also say Boris Johnson is more likely to tell the truth about the EU than the Prime Minister (42% v 27%). Similarly, Britons tend to say the campaigners for leaving the EU are more likely to tell the truth than the remain campaigners (39% v 24%), although a significant minority say they don’t know (38%)."
Sample highly skewed to UKIP supporters like almost all online polls.
And how big is that skewing towards UKIUP supporters ?
Please give an actual number Mike.
That would allow us to recalibrate the results.
UKIP were on 17% in that poll. Versus 12% NESV that they polled last week.
Actually in the PCC elections UKIP averaged 15.8%
The 12% figure comes from two separate calculations - one by Prof John Curtice for the BBC the other by Profs Rallings & Thrasher.
UKIP is now 4th party based on May 5th elections
OGH, you are close to Paddy Ashdown territory, based on the National Equivalent Vote of 2013 the LD were forecasted to win 50 MP's in the GE :
The comments on that piece by RodCrosby are a peach!
A few old favourites there including ALP.
Rod may have some fairly rum ideas about 20th century history, but what a forecaster. I may be tempted to put some of todays winnings on Trump, despite Jacks ARSE for US.
Jacks ARSE for US vs Rod Crosby over next POTUS is like Godzilla vs King Kong with the rest of us being trampled.
Remain's campaign seems to be shouting "£4,300" at the top of their voices, and if anyone points out how fabricated it is, to respond by shouting louder. The very crux of the Remain campaign is a big lie, and every Remain politician backing the number is a disgrace.
LOL
Boris "carved £350 million" into a piece of steel and if anyone points out how fabricated it is, they respond by shouting louder. The very crux of the BREXIT campaign is a big lie, and every BREXIT politician backing the number is a disgrace.
LOL
Cameron "carved £4,300" into a piece of steel and if anyone points out how fabricated it is, they respond by shouting louder. The very crux of the REMAIN campaign is a big lie, and every REMAIN politician backing the number is a disgrace. ...
Big difference is that the National Statistical Authority have ruled twice that LEAVE is wrong to use the the £350m figure and both Cummings and Elliot have had to face the wrath of the Tory chaired Commons Treasury committee. ...
The £4300 figure is garbage just as much as the £350 million figure.
Even more so - as it is founded on hundreds of 'if's' 'maybe's, 'might's, and 'possibly's'. The £350 million is just taking the gross figure rather than the net - and the effect is that we could only build a hospital every two weeks rather than one every week.
PS - UK budget contributions are going up by £2 billion this year and the EU want to increase the budget by 20% - which would be an additional £2 billion every year - although that won't be pointed out until after the referendum date.
snip
What makes this all so entertaining is that Remain keep claiming VICTORY!! SLAM DUNK!!! as each killer authority figure is wheeled out, and then the polls go Meh or Bugger Off. I'm struggling to think of a single Leaver who's predicted we'll win - so everything is an upside as Remain panic. The STimes article was hilarious. It'd be hard to read the quotes any other way - and as for asserting they're 10pts ahead in their secret polling. Really? Whomever briefed that out needs a good slap. It was so all transparent. Cameron talking up Boris as his successor? Who are they kidding, not many with a vote.
Andrew Neil said that the information came from Andrew Cooper.
I saw that in STimes, I think it's whistling in the dark. I didn't hesitate for a second, and usually I'll pause before thinking cobblers.
"(David Davis) is also from a state school non-Oxbridge background and, I’d argue, is better placed to appeal to the white working class voters that LEAVE desperately needs to turnout on June 23rd."
"Desperately"? It's REMAIN that desperately needs native-British working class (NBWC) voters to stay at home. No pro-Leave NBWC voter is going to stay at home because Boris is a toff. Nobody is that stupid.
Someone like Gillian Duffy could wipe the floor with David Cameron.
And could you imagine Mrs Duffy against Christine Lagarde of the IMF?
It would be
"I live in ever more crappy conditions while immigrants have been allowed by successive governments to flock into the area and the place is becoming like the third world"
against
"But you don't understand, you bigoted racist thicko. If Britain leaves the EU, Russia will fire cruise missiles, you'll lose your cleaning job, and your arms will fall off. How would you like that, eh?"
D'you know what? I don't like xenophobia and for that reason I've long been pro-Remain. But I'm teetering... It'd kind of be great to see the British people give the political class a damned good hiding.
"Britons are more than twice as likely to say Boris Johnson would tell the truth about the EU than David Cameron (45% v 21%). Conservative voters also say Boris Johnson is more likely to tell the truth about the EU than the Prime Minister (42% v 27%). Similarly, Britons tend to say the campaigners for leaving the EU are more likely to tell the truth than the remain campaigners (39% v 24%), although a significant minority say they don’t know (38%)."
Sample highly skewed to UKIP supporters like almost all online polls.
And how big is that skewing towards UKIUP supporters ?
Please give an actual number Mike.
That would allow us to recalibrate the results.
UKIP were on 17% in that poll. Versus 12% NESV that they polled last week.
Actually in the PCC elections UKIP averaged 15.8%
The 12% figure comes from two separate calculations - one by Prof John Curtice for the BBC the other by Profs Rallings & Thrasher.
UKIP is now 4th party based on May 5th elections
OGH, you are close to Paddy Ashdown territory, based on the National Equivalent Vote of 2013 the LD were forecasted to win 50 MP's in the GE :
Not sure whether blocking anyone will work on a site Which still shows open nesting. No idea why it started but it makes threads night impossible to read. Have tried all to get it back to how it was. I didn't change any settings it started this time a week. Ago and it's still fecked.
Mr. Herdson, two points of order: Rome was a republic when Gaul fell. Military conquest was the general approach of everyone at the time, castigating Rome for it is criticising them for being more successful than their rivals.
Mr. 1000, nagging into submission isn't democracy. If Leave wins, would you support Cameron getting a tiny change and then asking for another referendum?
MD. Granted. The republic was already collapsing and Caesar was exploiting that to the full. Not sure what that has to do with the case in hand though - Rome was a republic with an empire.
I wouldn't castigate Rome for being more successful. However, to argue equivalence in ends is to some extent to argue equivalence in other terms. (Boris didn't bring Rome into this one but he easily could have). That's the beef I have with him invoking Hitler.
The EU is unique in global history so all comparisons are false on some level. But if he's talking about the formation of superstates, what's wrong with, for example, invoking the formation of the USA in 1787-9, or of Australia at the very end of the 19th century? Both are cases of fully formed states emerging from sovereign units - though the EU isn't a fully formed state - but critically both were also democracies (of sorts) and the unions were formed at the will of the members. But then they don't give off the air of menace that a lazy Godwin creates.
In Robert Harris' novel Fatherland; Having achieved victory in Europe, Germany reorganises Europe east of Poland into Reichskommissariats. Following the signing of the Treaty of Rome, Western Europe and Scandinavia are corralled into a pro-German trading bloc, the European Community.
Seeing as I am on a roll I am going to have a sneaky £20 on Pochettino being gone by Christmas. Given the way this last month has gone at Spurs, if he does not start next season well the press is going to smell blood and Daniel Levy is not a patient man.
SO, If you're still around. May I ask what the bet was and what odds you got betting on Spurs choking the last few games?
I did a top three final finish in the right order and a couple of top 4s in the right order. A mix of my own cash and introductory free bets from SkyBet. Then when Spurs lost to Soton I put cash on a Newcastle win today at pretty decent odds. After Spurs drew with Chelsea it was absolutely clear they had gone physically and mentally, and would struggle to get another point, so it all looked like free money to me. Which it was.
A couple of things about the Fed- he never planned to play any of the clay masters, maybe one. He has coped with his back injury before. He will want to keep his slam record going...so I expect (hope) him to play.
Provided he can avoid Nishikori or Nadal in the quarters he has a route to the semis. He'll not go further.
Nishikori has potentially the best clay game of them all at the moment if it all comes together- and I think he has stepped up psychologically. I got something on him at 35's. At some point Nishikori is going to step up and start winning some big tournaments.
As much as Djokovic is super human, he cannot defy gravity JackW. The matches against Nadal and Nishikori were brutal. Yesterdays match against Nishikori was one of the cleanest ball striking contests I have ever seen which finished close to midnight. It was impossible to think Novak could be at all competitive today.
I've put on a ton on Federer for the French at 40's and still expect him to go deep to cash out, but I think Nishikori is the most likely to upset Djokovic. He seems to have matured this summer.
"(David Davis) is also from a state school non-Oxbridge background and, I’d argue, is better placed to appeal to the white working class voters that LEAVE desperately needs to turnout on June 23rd."
"Desperately"? It's REMAIN that desperately needs native-British working class (NBWC) voters to stay at home. No pro-Leave NBWC voter is going to stay at home because Boris is a toff. Nobody is that stupid.
Someone like Gillian Duffy could wipe the floor with David Cameron.
And could you imagine Mrs Duffy against Christine Lagarde of the IMF?
It would be
"I live in ever more crappy conditions while immigrants have been allowed by successive governments to flock into the area and the place is becoming like the third world"
against
"But you don't understand, you bigoted racist thicko. If Britain leaves the EU, Russia will fire cruise missiles, you'll lose your cleaning job, and your arms will fall off. How would you like that, eh?"
D'you know what? I don't like xenophobia and for that reason I've long been pro-Remain. But I'm teetering... It'd kind of be great to see the British people give the political class a damned good hiding.
It isn't xenophobia. Put it like this - mice are very wary of cats, for obvious reasons. Should the leaders of the rodent pack accuse them of Ailurophobia?
Comments
The National Equivalent Share of local elections tend to skew towards local issues and factors, you should never use them as a litmus test for polls, or else you end up like Paddy Ashdown.
Rome was a republic when Gaul fell.
Military conquest was the general approach of everyone at the time, castigating Rome for it is criticising them for being more successful than their rivals.
Mr. 1000, nagging into submission isn't democracy. If Leave wins, would you support Cameron getting a tiny change and then asking for another referendum?
I had £1 e.w. at 250/1 with Boylesports, thereby resulting in a profit of £333.33 .... absolutely fantastic!
I assume that OGH will arrange for your immediate admission into the PB.com Greatest Tipsters of All Time Hall of Fame!
Many thanks again.
- polls you don't like are wrong
- they're really invalid because they're online
- they don't count because reasons
- huge margins are somehow statistical flukes
- anything else we can think of to rubbish them...[insert here]
Good for headlines- but Boris has fixed that for today....and possibly tomorrow too....
I am having a bit of difficulty getting any work done now. Glad you managed to get on the bet. My post-race smugfest analysis is up here, incidentally:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2016/05/spain-post-race-analysis-2016.html
As to skewing to too many EUsceptic Tories aren't online polls skewed towards ABC1s whilst EUsceptic Tories skewed towards C2DEs ?
Anyway I have to go so good evening.
It's all WRONG!!! Like a Jeremy Kyle lie detector result.
Feeeeesh!!
I think the pattern is that women and OAPs are the most risk averse groups out there. That they will back the status quo, and they're not being captured properly.
We saw it with the final indyref polls, with most overstating Yes.
But have a good evening.
UKIP is now 4th party based on May 5th elections
Back atcha.
Yougov, trust Cameron on EU: -47 , last place
Ipsos Mori, satisfaction with Cameron: -19, last place
Did the number of households question (2015 vs 2030) get resolved on PB last night?
https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/731893234755112960
http://www.libdemvoice.org/local-elections-2013-graphics-34380.html
Saying that the polls must be totally wrong because of local election results is a fools game.
After all. most of them seem to be fit young men of fighting age.
As I predicted last night he will never get a better chance to beat Djokovic. Nihiskori is a dark horse for the French IMO.
Not sure that lifelike is quite the right word.
PS - UK budget contributions are going up by £2 billion this year and the EU want to increase the budget by 20% - which would be an additional £2 billion every year - although that won't be pointed out until after the referendum date.
You'll need Greasemonkey add-on, search for it under Tools.
Then go to https://github.com/edmundedgar/greasemonkey-widgets and save the PB one. It's a bit temperamental, but a browser restart will usually get it working. You can Favourite or Ignore posters.
https://twitter.com/MirrorPolitics/status/731896197112320000
At least Rees-Mogg hasn't been accused of molesting goats.
I've put on a ton on Federer for the French at 40's and still expect him to go deep to cash out, but I think Nishikori is the most likely to upset Djokovic. He seems to have matured this summer.
Boris liar liar pants on Fire.
Online Polls are biased because they are infested with Kippers.
Hitler.
It is obvious that the LDs will retain their seats in Southern England in Tory/Lib marginals in the forthcoming elrction
When Remain howls they can turn around and say, OK Dave, How much do YOU think we'll be paying??
The Garrack Hotel in St Ives is also worth a visit - again, good food and the view across the bay from some of the rooms is magnificent.
Can Nishikori get past a top 4 player over five sets?.. I have my doubts.
May I ask what the bet was and what odds you got betting on Spurs choking the last few games?
A few old favourites there including ALP.
Rod may have some fairly rum ideas about 20th century history, but what a forecaster. I may be tempted to put some of todays winnings on Trump, despite Jacks ARSE for US.
How well is their campaign going?
Now I want to go back ...
I'm struggling to think of a single Leaver who's predicted we'll win - so everything is an upside as Remain panic. The STimes article was hilarious. It'd be hard to read the quotes any other way - and as for asserting they're 10pts ahead in their secret polling. Really?
Whomever briefed that out needs a good slap. It was so all transparent. Cameron talking up Boris as his successor? Who are they kidding, not many with a vote.
Jack's Arse and Rod Crosby are the two best predictors for pbCOM. Our very own Nate Silvers.
Also, Rod was very gracious to me about my mum a few weeks ago. I do not hold his very odd views about WW2 against him one jot. PbCOM is full of eccentrics and long may it last.
At least the edit box is back to normal size
By all means keep Hitler in the news cycle.....
"Desperately"? It's REMAIN that desperately needs native-British working class (NBWC) voters to stay at home. No pro-Leave NBWC voter is going to stay at home because Boris is a toff. Nobody is that stupid.
Someone like Gillian Duffy could wipe the floor with David Cameron.
And could you imagine Mrs Duffy against Christine Lagarde of the IMF?
It would be
"I live in ever more crappy conditions while immigrants have been allowed by successive governments to flock into the area and the place is becoming like the third world"
against
"But you don't understand, you bigoted racist thicko. If Britain leaves the EU, Russia will fire cruise missiles, you'll lose your cleaning job, and your arms will fall off. How would you like that, eh?"
D'you know what? I don't like xenophobia and for that reason I've long been pro-Remain. But I'm teetering... It'd kind of be great to see the British people give the political class a damned good hiding.
I wouldn't castigate Rome for being more successful. However, to argue equivalence in ends is to some extent to argue equivalence in other terms. (Boris didn't bring Rome into this one but he easily could have). That's the beef I have with him invoking Hitler.
The EU is unique in global history so all comparisons are false on some level. But if he's talking about the formation of superstates, what's wrong with, for example, invoking the formation of the USA in 1787-9, or of Australia at the very end of the 19th century? Both are cases of fully formed states emerging from sovereign units - though the EU isn't a fully formed state - but critically both were also democracies (of sorts) and the unions were formed at the will of the members. But then they don't give off the air of menace that a lazy Godwin creates.
Having achieved victory in Europe, Germany reorganises Europe east of Poland into Reichskommissariats. Following the signing of the Treaty of Rome, Western Europe and Scandinavia are corralled into a pro-German trading bloc, the European Community.
Provided he can avoid Nishikori or Nadal in the quarters he has a route to the semis. He'll not go further.
Nishikori has potentially the best clay game of them all at the moment if it all comes together- and I think he has stepped up psychologically. I got something on him at 35's. At some point Nishikori is going to step up and start winning some big tournaments.