"(David Davis) is also from a state school non-Oxbridge background and, I’d argue, is better placed to appeal to the white working class voters that LEAVE desperately needs to turnout on June 23rd."
"Desperately"? It's REMAIN that desperately needs native-British working class (NBWC) voters to stay at home. No pro-Leave NBWC voter is going to stay at home because Boris is a toff. Nobody is that stupid.
Someone like Gillian Duffy could wipe the floor with David Cameron.
And could you imagine Mrs Duffy against Christine Lagarde of the IMF?
It would be
"I live in ever more crappy conditions while immigrants have been allowed by successive governments to flock into the area and the place is becoming like the third world"
against
"But you don't understand, you bigoted racist thicko. If Britain leaves the EU, Russia will fire cruise missiles, you'll lose your cleaning job, and your arms will fall off. How would you like that, eh?"
D'you know what? I don't like xenophobia and for that reason I've long been pro-Remain. But I'm teetering... It'd kind of be great to see the British people give the political class a damned good hiding.
We do need people who don't normally vote to go out and vote. If we don't, then Middle Class Labour-ites will give this to Remain.
"Britons are more than twice as likely to say Boris Johnson would tell the truth about the EU than David Cameron (45% v 21%). Conservative voters also say Boris Johnson is more likely to tell the truth about the EU than the Prime Minister (42% v 27%). Similarly, Britons tend to say the campaigners for leaving the EU are more likely to tell the truth than the remain campaigners (39% v 24%), although a significant minority say they don’t know (38%)."
Sample highly skewed to UKIP supporters like almost all online polls.
Mike, a skewing (if you are right) of a few % to UKIP is not going to make much difference to 20% leads for LEAVE over REMAIN in the figures on "truth".
Exactly. There is a consistent dismissiveness by pro-Remain posters on here towards polls with findings they don't like.
It may be that ComRes overrates UKIP (personally, I think they do) but even if you calibrated it accordingly, they still would make for uncomfortable reading.
I think there's quite a bit of evidence accumulating now that David Cameron isn't the golden asset to the Remain campaign that he was thought to be.
In Robert Harris' novel Fatherland; Having achieved victory in Europe, Germany reorganises Europe east of Poland into Reichskommissariats. Following the signing of the Treaty of Rome, Western Europe and Scandinavia are corralled into a pro-German trading bloc, the European Community.
"Britons are more than twice as likely to say Boris Johnson would tell the truth about the EU than David Cameron (45% v 21%). Conservative voters also say Boris Johnson is more likely to tell the truth about the EU than the Prime Minister (42% v 27%). Similarly, Britons tend to say the campaigners for leaving the EU are more likely to tell the truth than the remain campaigners (39% v 24%), although a significant minority say they don’t know (38%)."
Sample highly skewed to UKIP supporters like almost all online polls.
And how big is that skewing towards UKIUP supporters ?
Please give an actual number Mike.
That would allow us to recalibrate the results.
UKIP were on 17% in that poll. Versus 12% NESV that they polled last week.
Actually in the PCC elections UKIP averaged 15.8%
The 12% figure comes from two separate calculations - one by Prof John Curtice for the BBC the other by Profs Rallings & Thrasher.
UKIP is now 4th party based on May 5th elections
OGH, you are close to Paddy Ashdown territory, based on the National Equivalent Vote of 2013 the LD were forecasted to win 50 MP's in the GE :
Some fantastic bite-you-in-the-arse comments on that thread! It's a hoot. Oh, the denial...
Looks like a fun time.
This is the silliest column i have read in many a long year, i trust you will come on here and apologise when you have been proved wrong as you are going to be. WOEFUL
Damn! I am agreeing with SeanT, I must get off religion and back onto hard drugs.
@LBC: Ken Livingstone tells @IainDale that the Labour leadership should invite Lutfur Rahmann back into the party. #TowerHamlets
"(David Davis) is also from a state school non-Oxbridge background and, I’d argue, is better placed to appeal to the white working class voters that LEAVE desperately needs to turnout on June 23rd."
"Desperately"? It's REMAIN that desperately needs native-British working class (NBWC) voters to stay at home. No pro-Leave NBWC voter is going to stay at home because Boris is a toff. Nobody is that stupid.
Someone like Gillian Duffy could wipe the floor with David Cameron.
And could you imagine Mrs Duffy against Christine Lagarde of the IMF?
It would be
"I live in ever more crappy conditions while immigrants have been allowed by successive governments to flock into the area and the place is becoming like the third world"
against
"But you don't understand, you bigoted racist thicko. If Britain leaves the EU, Russia will fire cruise missiles, you'll lose your cleaning job, and your arms will fall off. How would you like that, eh?"
D'you know what? I don't like xenophobia and for that reason I've long been pro-Remain. But I'm teetering... It'd kind of be great to see the British people give the political class a damned good hiding.
We do need people who don't normally vote to go out and vote. If we don't, then Middle Class Labour-ites will give this to Remain.
"Britons are more than twice as likely to say Boris Johnson would tell the truth about the EU than David Cameron (45% v 21%). Conservative voters also say Boris Johnson is more likely to tell the truth about the EU than the Prime Minister (42% v 27%). Similarly, Britons tend to say the campaigners for leaving the EU are more likely to tell the truth than the remain campaigners (39% v 24%), although a significant minority say they don’t know (38%)."
Sample highly skewed to UKIP supporters like almost all online polls.
Mike, a skewing (if you are right) of a few % to UKIP is not going to make much difference to 20% leads for LEAVE over REMAIN in the figures on "truth".
Exactly. There is a consistent dismissiveness by pro-Remain posters on here towards polls with findings they don't like.
It may be that ComRes overrates UKIP (personally, I think they do) but even if you calibrated it accordingly, they still would make for uncomfortable reading.
I think there's quite a bit of evidence accumulating now that David Cameron isn't the golden asset to the Remain campaign that he was thought to be.
The Rift Valley sized gap in trust ratings between Boris/Cameron and Leave vs Remain can't be handwaved away - these aren't 5pts adrift - we're talking 20s. In a poll of over 2000?
Listened to Stig Abel earlier trying to get an anti-Boris phone-in going on LBC but no-one took the bait. All callers seemed to get the point Boris was trying to make. Boris is clearly a very well educated man and if he should become PM in the future, then the media had better catch up and do a crash course in History.
I believe that the above photo is of the actual model of a future Berlin made by Speer, Hitlers architect, sometime in WW2. The large Domed building was to house a future Reichstag.
Nigel Farage endorses Trump for US President, with reservations
'Ukip leader Nigel Farage, responding to the clip aired on ITV's Peston On Sunday, joked: 'It just goes to show Donald Trump is measured, neutral, doesn't want to get stuck into the punch-up.' Mr Farage added: 'He's given a very diplomatic answer.' The Euro MP said investors believe it makes no difference whether Britain chooses to stay or leave the EU. Asked if he would back Mr Trump for US president, Mr Farage said: 'I have difficulty with that. 'Let's put it like this, I couldn't vote for (Hillary Clinton) even if you paid me.' He added: 'If you put me up against a wall it would be (Mr Trump), not Hillary, but I have reservations. 'Encouraging people to beat up protesters, one or two things like that bother me, but look, I tell you what, I think he's going to win.'
Seeing as I am on a roll I am going to have a sneaky £20 on Pochettino being gone by Christmas. Given the way this last month has gone at Spurs, if he does not start next season well the press is going to smell blood and Daniel Levy is not a patient man.
SO, If you're still around. May I ask what the bet was and what odds you got betting on Spurs choking the last few games?
I did a top three final finish in the right order and a couple of top 4s in the right order. A mix of my own cash and introductory free bets from SkyBet. Then when Spurs lost to Soton I put cash on a Newcastle win today at pretty decent odds. After Spurs drew with Chelsea it was absolutely clear they had gone physically and mentally, and would struggle to get another point, so it all looked like free money to me. Which it was.
As a fellow long suffering Spurs fan, your reasoning is a depressingly accurate prediction. To be fair, I've been expecting them to choke at any point since Xmas. And in last few weeks (late March) I dared to hope.
"Britons are more than twice as likely to say Boris Johnson would tell the truth about the EU than David Cameron (45% v 21%). Conservative voters also say Boris Johnson is more likely to tell the truth about the EU than the Prime Minister (42% v 27%). Similarly, Britons tend to say the campaigners for leaving the EU are more likely to tell the truth than the remain campaigners (39% v 24%), although a significant minority say they don’t know (38%)."
Sample highly skewed to UKIP supporters like almost all online polls.
Mike, a skewing (if you are right) of a few % to UKIP is not going to make much difference to 20% leads for LEAVE over REMAIN in the figures on "truth".
Exactly. There is a consistent dismissiveness by pro-Remain posters on here towards polls with findings they don't like.
It may be that ComRes overrates UKIP (personally, I think they do) but even if you calibrated it accordingly, they still would make for uncomfortable reading.
I think there's quite a bit of evidence accumulating now that David Cameron isn't the golden asset to the Remain campaign that he was thought to be.
The Rift Valley sized gap in trust ratings between Boris/Cameron and Leave vs Remain can't be handwaved away - these aren't 5pts adrift - we're talking 20s. In a poll of over 2000?
Yes, I think so. Boris's trust ratings may well deteriorate as he becomes more political, over the course of the campaign, but if he is at parity or better than Cameron (and the front man) amongst swing voters and on the TV debates (and he doesn't majorly screw up, and I am bloody nervous about that) then he is a net positive.
Personally, I am struggling to see how dropping in any reference to Hitler (no matter how tangential) into an interview helps Leave, other than it forces the BBC to dominate the headlines with it.
Maybe it's calculated to seed a highly negative psychological connotation with the EU, which will outweigh any outrage amongst the already committed Remainers, I don't know.
Nigel Farage endorses Trump for US President, with reservations
'Ukip leader Nigel Farage, responding to the clip aired on ITV's Peston On Sunday, joked: 'It just goes to show Donald Trump is measured, neutral, doesn't want to get stuck into the punch-up.' Mr Farage added: 'He's given a very diplomatic answer.' The Euro MP said investors believe it makes no difference whether Britain chooses to stay or leave the EU. Asked if he would back Mr Trump for US president, Mr Farage said: 'I have difficulty with that. 'Let's put it like this, I couldn't vote for (Hillary Clinton) even if you paid me.' He added: 'If you put me up against a wall it would be (Mr Trump), not Hillary, but I have reservations. 'Encouraging people to beat up protesters, one or two things like that bother me, but look, I tell you what, I think he's going to win.'
Farage feeling uncomfortable with a man who says what he thinks is right, even if it is Trump; says more about Farage and explains a bit why he reneged on his resignation.
I believe that the above photo is of the actual model of a future Berlin made by Speer, Hitlers architect, sometime in WW2. The large Domed building was to house a future Reichstag.
So here is a question completed unrelated to all this Eurotwaddle.
Does it make me a bad man if I admit that I have a real liking for Speer's architecture. Or is that like those people who are supposed not to like Wagner.
"Britons are more than twice as likely to say Boris Johnson would tell the truth about the EU than David Cameron (45% v 21%). Conservative voters also say Boris Johnson is more likely to tell the truth about the EU than the Prime Minister (42% v 27%). Similarly, Britons tend to say the campaigners for leaving the EU are more likely to tell the truth than the remain campaigners (39% v 24%), although a significant minority say they don’t know (38%)."
Sample highly skewed to UKIP supporters like almost all online polls.
Mike, a skewing (if you are right) of a few % to UKIP is not going to make much difference to 20% leads for LEAVE over REMAIN in the figures on "truth".
Exactly. There is a consistent dismissiveness by pro-Remain posters on here towards polls with findings they don't like.
It may be that ComRes overrates UKIP (personally, I think they do) but even if you calibrated it accordingly, they still would make for uncomfortable reading.
I think there's quite a bit of evidence accumulating now that David Cameron isn't the golden asset to the Remain campaign that he was thought to be.
The attitude of the REMAINers to the underlying poll findings are similar to the attitude of pro-Miliband supporters before GE2010. EdMilibandIsCrapButWTF
"Britons are more than twice as likely to say Boris Johnson would tell the truth about the EU than David Cameron (45% v 21%). Conservative voters also say Boris Johnson is more likely to tell the truth about the EU than the Prime Minister (42% v 27%). Similarly, Britons tend to say the campaigners for leaving the EU are more likely to tell the truth than the remain campaigners (39% v 24%), although a significant minority say they don’t know (38%)."
Sample highly skewed to UKIP supporters like almost all online polls.
Mike, a skewing (if you are right) of a few % to UKIP is not going to make much difference to 20% leads for LEAVE over REMAIN in the figures on "truth".
Exactly. There is a consistent dismissiveness by pro-Remain posters on here towards polls with findings they don't like.
It may be that ComRes overrates UKIP (personally, I think they do) but even if you calibrated it accordingly, they still would make for uncomfortable reading.
I think there's quite a bit of evidence accumulating now that David Cameron isn't the golden asset to the Remain campaign that he was thought to be.
The Rift Valley sized gap in trust ratings between Boris/Cameron and Leave vs Remain can't be handwaved away - these aren't 5pts adrift - we're talking 20s. In a poll of over 2000?
Yes, I think so. Boris's trust ratings may well deteriorate as he becomes more political, over the course of the campaign, but if he is at parity or better than Cameron (and the front man) amongst swing voters and on the TV debates (and he doesn't majorly screw up, and I am bloody nervous about that) then he is a net positive.
Personally, I am struggling to see how dropping in any reference to Hitler (no matter how tangential) into an interview helps Leave, other than it forces the BBC to dominate the headlines with it.
Maybe it's calculated to seed a highly negative psychological connotation with the EU, which will outweigh any outrage amongst the already committed Remainers, I don't know.
There's no way the DT would drop Boris in it - I can only assume Leave polling tells them it'd work. @LadyBucket noted this downthread re LBC.
I believe that the above photo is of the actual model of a future Berlin made by Speer, Hitlers architect, sometime in WW2. The large Domed building was to house a future Reichstag.
So here is a question completed unrelated to all this Eurotwaddle.
Does it make me a bad man if I admit that I have a real liking for Speer's architecture. Or is that like those people who are supposed not to like Wagner.
Personally I have no preference. But the chinese like Speer's architecture, they hired his son for the Beijing Olympics of 2008.
Nigel Farage endorses Trump for US President, with reservations
'Ukip leader Nigel Farage, responding to the clip aired on ITV's Peston On Sunday, joked: 'It just goes to show Donald Trump is measured, neutral, doesn't want to get stuck into the punch-up.' Mr Farage added: 'He's given a very diplomatic answer.' The Euro MP said investors believe it makes no difference whether Britain chooses to stay or leave the EU. Asked if he would back Mr Trump for US president, Mr Farage said: 'I have difficulty with that. 'Let's put it like this, I couldn't vote for (Hillary Clinton) even if you paid me.' He added: 'If you put me up against a wall it would be (Mr Trump), not Hillary, but I have reservations. 'Encouraging people to beat up protesters, one or two things like that bother me, but look, I tell you what, I think he's going to win.'
Farage feeling uncomfortable with a man who says what he thinks is right, even if it is Trump; says more about Farage and explains a bit why he reneged on his resignation.
Maybe but nonetheless an endorsement for Trump from Farage, even if qualified, is a significant development given how much the other party leaders have distanced themselves from him.
A couple of things about the Fed- he never planned to play any of the clay masters, maybe one. He has coped with his back injury before. He will want to keep his slam record going...so I expect (hope) him to play.
Provided he can avoid Nishikori or Nadal in the quarters he has a route to the semis. He'll not go further.
Nishikori has potentially the best clay game of them all at the moment if it all comes together- and I think he has stepped up psychologically. I got something on him at 35's. At some point Nishikori is going to step up and start winning some big tournaments.
As much as Djokovic is super human, he cannot defy gravity JackW. The matches against Nadal and Nishikori were brutal. Yesterdays match against Nishikori was one of the cleanest ball striking contests I have ever seen which finished close to midnight. It was impossible to think Novak could be at all competitive today.
I've put on a ton on Federer for the French at 40's and still expect him to go deep to cash out, but I think Nishikori is the most likely to upset Djokovic. He seems to have matured this summer.
"Britons are more than twice as likely to say Boris Johnson would tell the truth about the EU than David Cameron (45% v 21%). Conservative voters also say Boris Johnson is more likely to tell the truth about the EU than the Prime Minister (42% v 27%). Similarly, Britons tend to say the campaigners for leaving the EU are more likely to tell the truth than the remain campaigners (39% v 24%), although a significant minority say they don’t know (38%)."
Sample highly skewed to UKIP supporters like almost all online polls.
Mike, a skewing (if you are right) of a few % to UKIP is not going to make much difference to 20% leads for LEAVE over REMAIN in the figures on "truth".
Exactly. There is a consistent dismissiveness by pro-Remain posters on here towards polls with findings they don't like.
It may be that ComRes overrates UKIP (personally, I think they do) but even if you calibrated it accordingly, they still would make for uncomfortable reading.
I think there's quite a bit of evidence accumulating now that David Cameron isn't the golden asset to the Remain campaign that he was thought to be.
The Rift Valley sized gap in trust ratings between Boris/Cameron and Leave vs Remain can't be handwaved away - these aren't 5pts adrift - we're talking 20s. In a poll of over 2000?
Yes, I think so. Boris's trust ratings may well deteriorate as he becomes more political, over the course of the campaign, but if he is at parity or better than Cameron (and the front man) amongst swing voters and on the TV debates (and he doesn't majorly screw up, and I am bloody nervous about that) then he is a net positive.
Personally, I am struggling to see how dropping in any reference to Hitler (no matter how tangential) into an interview helps Leave, other than it forces the BBC to dominate the headlines with it.
Maybe it's calculated to seed a highly negative psychological connotation with the EU, which will outweigh any outrage amongst the already committed Remainers, I don't know.
There's no way the DT would drop Boris in it - I can only assume Leave polling tells them it'd work. @LadyBucket noted this downthread re LBC.
Yes, when it comes to polling, I try to discount what I believe to be true (rather than the opposite, which is confirmation bias) and understand the numbers.
None are right or wrong.
These are all professional polling companies with an interest both in accuracy and future business.
Nigel Farage endorses Trump for US President, with reservations
'Ukip leader Nigel Farage, responding to the clip aired on ITV's Peston On Sunday, joked: 'It just goes to show Donald Trump is measured, neutral, doesn't want to get stuck into the punch-up.' Mr Farage added: 'He's given a very diplomatic answer.' The Euro MP said investors believe it makes no difference whether Britain chooses to stay or leave the EU. Asked if he would back Mr Trump for US president, Mr Farage said: 'I have difficulty with that. 'Let's put it like this, I couldn't vote for (Hillary Clinton) even if you paid me.' He added: 'If you put me up against a wall it would be (Mr Trump), not Hillary, but I have reservations. 'Encouraging people to beat up protesters, one or two things like that bother me, but look, I tell you what, I think he's going to win.'
Farage feeling uncomfortable with a man who says what he thinks is right, even if it is Trump; says more about Farage and explains a bit why he reneged on his resignation.
Maybe but nonetheless an endorsement for Trump from Farage, even if qualified, is a significant development given how much the other party leaders have distanced themselves from him.
I believe that UKIP is the only party in Britain that 90% of it's voters would like Trump, speaking of which this is a very amusing and weird story:
So Trump leaks on purpose a tape of himself from 1991 impersonating his own publicist on the phone with reporters, the media take the bait and they have been talking about the contents of the tape of Trump bragging about himself for days.
You can say that Trump is a master of media manipulation, Larry Sabato is right when he says that Trump commands the stage.
I believe that the above photo is of the actual model of a future Berlin made by Speer, Hitlers architect, sometime in WW2. The large Domed building was to house a future Reichstag.
So here is a question completed unrelated to all this Eurotwaddle.
Does it make me a bad man if I admit that I have a real liking for Speer's architecture. Or is that like those people who are supposed not to like Wagner.
Speers architecture and Riefenstahl's films do go some way to demonstrate the appeal of Nazism.
Without Speer's organising genius for German industry taking over in 1942 when it became apparent that the war would be a long one, Nazi Germany may well have collapsed a lot more quickly.
A couple of things about the Fed- he never planned to play any of the clay masters, maybe one. He has coped with his back injury before. He will want to keep his slam record going...so I expect (hope) him to play.
Provided he can avoid Nishikori or Nadal in the quarters he has a route to the semis. He'll not go further.
Nishikori has potentially the best clay game of them all at the moment if it all comes together- and I think he has stepped up psychologically. I got something on him at 35's. At some point Nishikori is going to step up and start winning some big tournaments.
As much as Djokovic is super human, he cannot defy gravity JackW. The matches against Nadal and Nishikori were brutal. Yesterdays match against Nishikori was one of the cleanest ball striking contests I have ever seen which finished close to midnight. It was impossible to think Novak could be at all competitive today.
I've put on a ton on Federer for the French at 40's and still expect him to go deep to cash out, but I think Nishikori is the most likely to upset Djokovic. He seems to have matured this summer.
So not content with calling for foreign commentators to shut up, independent observers to be sacked, and Hitler, Brexiteers are now comforting each other by suggesting they put their fingers in their ears and sing LA, LA, LA, I can't hear you.
How well is their campaign going?
So well that if you told me two months ago the polls would have been here, I'd have laughed in your face.
I still think it will be Remain but surely not with a decisive margin.
Nigel Farage endorses Trump for US President, with reservations
'Ukip leader Nigel Farage, responding to the clip aired on ITV's Peston On Sunday, joked: 'It just goes to show Donald Trump is measured, neutral, doesn't want to get stuck into the punch-up.' Mr Farage added: 'He's given a very diplomatic answer.' The Euro MP said investors believe it makes no difference whether Britain chooses to stay or leave the EU. Asked if he would back Mr Trump for US president, Mr Farage said: 'I have difficulty with that. 'Let's put it like this, I couldn't vote for (Hillary Clinton) even if you paid me.' He added: 'If you put me up against a wall it would be (Mr Trump), not Hillary, but I have reservations. 'Encouraging people to beat up protesters, one or two things like that bother me, but look, I tell you what, I think he's going to win.'
Farage feeling uncomfortable with a man who says what he thinks is right, even if it is Trump; says more about Farage and explains a bit why he reneged on his resignation.
Maybe but nonetheless an endorsement for Trump from Farage, even if qualified, is a significant development given how much the other party leaders have distanced themselves from him.
I believe that UKIP is the only party in Britain that 90% of it's voters would like Trump, speaking of which this is a very amusing and weird story:
So Trump leaks on purpose a tape of himself from 1991 impersonating his own publicist on the phone with reporters, the media take the bait and they have been talking about the contents of the tape of Trump bragging about himself for days.
You can say that Trump is a master of media manipulation, Larry Sabato is right when he says that Trump commands the stage.
Yes you could imagine the average Kipper at a Trump rally in a way you could not most Tory, LD or Labour voters. Trump is a media manipulator but I doubt anyone will vote on how well he impersonates his publicist!
A couple of things about the Fed- he never planned to play any of the clay masters, maybe one. He has coped with his back injury before. He will want to keep his slam record going...so I expect (hope) him to play.
Provided he can avoid Nishikori or Nadal in the quarters he has a route to the semis. He'll not go further.
Nishikori has potentially the best clay game of them all at the moment if it all comes together- and I think he has stepped up psychologically. I got something on him at 35's. At some point Nishikori is going to step up and start winning some big tournaments.
As much as Djokovic is super human, he cannot defy gravity JackW. The matches against Nadal and Nishikori were brutal. Yesterdays match against Nishikori was one of the cleanest ball striking contests I have ever seen which finished close to midnight. It was impossible to think Novak could be at all competitive today.
I've put on a ton on Federer for the French at 40's and still expect him to go deep to cash out, but I think Nishikori is the most likely to upset Djokovic. He seems to have matured this summer.
Nigel Farage endorses Trump for US President, with reservations
'Ukip leader Nigel Farage, responding to the clip aired on ITV's Peston On Sunday, joked: 'It just goes to show Donald Trump is measured, neutral, doesn't want to get stuck into the punch-up.' Mr Farage added: 'He's given a very diplomatic answer.' The Euro MP said investors believe it makes no difference whether Britain chooses to stay or leave the EU. Asked if he would back Mr Trump for US president, Mr Farage said: 'I have difficulty with that. 'Let's put it like this, I couldn't vote for (Hillary Clinton) even if you paid me.' He added: 'If you put me up against a wall it would be (Mr Trump), not Hillary, but I have reservations. 'Encouraging people to beat up protesters, one or two things like that bother me, but look, I tell you what, I think he's going to win.'
Farage feeling uncomfortable with a man who says what he thinks is right, even if it is Trump; says more about Farage and explains a bit why he reneged on his resignation.
Maybe but nonetheless an endorsement for Trump from Farage, even if qualified, is a significant development given how much the other party leaders have distanced themselves from him.
I believe that UKIP is the only party in Britain that 90% of it's voters would like Trump, speaking of which this is a very amusing and weird story:
htps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3-5daajOopI
So Trump leaks on purpose a tape of himself from 1991 impersonating his own publicist on the phone with reporters, the media take the bait and they have been talking about the contents of the tape of Trump bragging about himself for days.
You can say that Trump is a master of media manipulation, Larry Sabato is right when he says that Trump commands the stage.
Nigel Farage endorses Trump for US President, with reservations
'Ukip leader Nigel Farage, responding to the clip aired on ITV's Peston On Sunday, joked: 'It just goes to show Donald Trump is measured, neutral, doesn't want to get stuck into the punch-up.' Mr Farage added: 'He's given a very diplomatic answer.' The Euro MP said investors believe it makes no difference whether Britain chooses to stay or leave the EU. Asked if he would back Mr Trump for US president, Mr Farage said: 'I have difficulty with that. 'Let's put it like this, I couldn't vote for (Hillary Clinton) even if you paid me.' He added: 'If you put me up against a wall it would be (Mr Trump), not Hillary, but I have reservations. 'Encouraging people to beat up protesters, one or two things like that bother me, but look, I tell you what, I think he's going to win.'
Farage feeling uncomfortable with a man who says what he thinks is right, even if it is Trump; says more about Farage and explains a bit why he reneged on his resignation.
Maybe but nonetheless an endorsement for Trump from Farage, even if qualified, is a significant development given how much the other party leaders have distanced themselves from him.
I believe that UKIP is the only party in Britain that 90% of it's voters would like Trump, speaking of which this is a very amusing and weird story:
So Trump leaks on purpose a tape of himself from 1991 impersonating his own publicist on the phone with reporters, the media take the bait and they have been talking about the contents of the tape of Trump bragging about himself for days.
You can say that Trump is a master of media manipulation, Larry Sabato is right when he says that Trump commands the stage.
Yes you could imagine the average Kipper at a Trump rally in a way you could not most Tory, LD or Labour voters. Trump is a media manipulator but I doubt anyone will vote on how well he impersonates his publicist!
True, Trump neither wins or loses votes from this, and the media are talking all the time about Trump bragging about dating Madonna in 1991 instead of other things.
The only things that Trump gains from all this are:
1. If the media talk about what he was doing in 1991 he can say the same about Hillary. 2. He can attack the Washington Post thanks to that story. 3. Journalists will not be so confident about their sources when digging dirt on Trump anymore (Trump leaked it himself remember). 4. The media will spend precious time on trivia, instead of serious stories about Trump.
A couple of things about the Fed- he never planned to play any of the clay masters, maybe one. He has coped with his back injury before. He will want to keep his slam record going...so I expect (hope) him to play.
Provided he can avoid Nishikori or Nadal in the quarters he has a route to the semis. He'll not go further.
Nishikori has potentially the best clay game of them all at the moment if it all comes together- and I think he has stepped up psychologically. I got something on him at 35's. At some point Nishikori is going to step up and start winning some big tournaments.
As much as Djokovic is super human, he cannot defy gravity JackW. The matches against Nadal and Nishikori were brutal. Yesterdays match against Nishikori was one of the cleanest ball striking contests I have ever seen which finished close to midnight. It was impossible to think Novak could be at all competitive today.
I've put on a ton on Federer for the French at 40's and still expect him to go deep to cash out, but I think Nishikori is the most likely to upset Djokovic. He seems to have matured this summer.
I believe that the above photo is of the actual model of a future Berlin made by Speer, Hitlers architect, sometime in WW2. The large Domed building was to house a future Reichstag.
So here is a question completed unrelated to all this Eurotwaddle.
Does it make me a bad man if I admit that I have a real liking for Speer's architecture. Or is that like those people who are supposed not to like Wagner.
Speers architecture and Riefenstahl's films do go some way to demonstrate the appeal of Nazism.
Without Speer's organising genius for German industry taking over in 1942 when it became apparent that the war would be a long one, Nazi Germany may well have collapsed a lot more quickly.
That is where I have the problem. Speer is responsible for the huge forced labour programme that took millions of people from their homes to work for the German War effort. It is kind of difficult to divorce that from the aesthetic value of his architecture.
I suppose it is a bit like liking Gary Glitter records.
I believe that the above photo is of the actual model of a future Berlin made by Speer, Hitlers architect, sometime in WW2. The large Domed building was to house a future Reichstag.
So here is a question completed unrelated to all this Eurotwaddle.
Does it make me a bad man if I admit that I have a real liking for Speer's architecture. Or is that like those people who are supposed not to like Wagner.
Whatever else, Wagner was a very great artists, not so sure about Speer. Also Wagner's art (his anti semitism notwithstanding) was appropriated by those who committed the greatest crime of modern civilzation, while Speer was fully complicit with that crime.
I suppose Speer came closest to being a Nazi who was self aware enough to analyse his idealogy and how it motivated him, up to a point, while all the greatest critiqu-ers of Stalinist Communism tended to be ex-Communists or socialists.
I believe that the above photo is of the actual model of a future Berlin made by Speer, Hitlers architect, sometime in WW2. The large Domed building was to house a future Reichstag.
So here is a question completed unrelated to all this Eurotwaddle.
Does it make me a bad man if I admit that I have a real liking for Speer's architecture. Or is that like those people who are supposed not to like Wagner.
Speers architecture and Riefenstahl's films do go some way to demonstrate the appeal of Nazism.
Without Speer's organising genius for German industry taking over in 1942 when it became apparent that the war would be a long one, Nazi Germany may well have collapsed a lot more quickly.
That is where I have the problem. Speer is responsible for the huge forced labour programme that took millions of people from their homes to work for the German War effort. It is kind of difficult to divorce that from the aesthetic value of his architecture.
I suppose it is a bit like liking Gary Glitter records.
O/t Fpt @hurstllama If you want to listen to stuff in bed without disturbing anyone, while avoiding headphones, then maybe look into under pillow speakers.
I believe that the above photo is of the actual model of a future Berlin made by Speer, Hitlers architect, sometime in WW2. The large Domed building was to house a future Reichstag.
So here is a question completed unrelated to all this Eurotwaddle.
Does it make me a bad man if I admit that I have a real liking for Speer's architecture. Or is that like those people who are supposed not to like Wagner.
Speers architecture and Riefenstahl's films do go some way to demonstrate the appeal of Nazism.
Without Speer's organising genius for German industry taking over in 1942 when it became apparent that the war would be a long one, Nazi Germany may well have collapsed a lot more quickly.
That is where I have the problem. Speer is responsible for the huge forced labour programme that took millions of people from their homes to work for the German War effort. It is kind of difficult to divorce that from the aesthetic value of his architecture.
I suppose it is a bit like liking Gary Glitter records.
I don't think there's any issue with liking Wagner, Speer, or Gary Glitter records, apart from on the grounds of taste. It does not automatically signify approval of anti-semitism, Nazism or Paedophilia as far as I'm concerned. What is pleasing to the eye or ear is pleasing to the eye or ear. Unless you do a background check on every person who creates something you like, you can't live any other way.
"Britons are more than twice as likely to say Boris Johnson would tell the truth about the EU than David Cameron (45% v 21%). Conservative voters also say Boris Johnson is more likely to tell the truth about the EU than the Prime Minister (42% v 27%). Similarly, Britons tend to say the campaigners for leaving the EU are more likely to tell the truth than the remain campaigners (39% v 24%), although a significant minority say they don’t know (38%)."
Sample highly skewed to UKIP supporters like almost all online polls.
Mike, a skewing (if you are right) of a few % to UKIP is not going to make much difference to 20% leads for LEAVE over REMAIN in the figures on "truth".
Exactly. There is a consistent dismissiveness by pro-Remain posters on here towards polls with findings they don't like.
It may be that ComRes overrates UKIP (personally, I think they do) but even if you calibrated it accordingly, they still would make for uncomfortable reading.
I think there's quite a bit of evidence accumulating now that David Cameron isn't the golden asset to the Remain campaign that he was thought to be.
Dismissing the findings of online opinion polls for this referendum is a classic example of blaming the messenger for delivering a message you don't want to hear.
Nigel Farage endorses Trump for US President, with reservations
'Ukip leader Nigel Farage, responding to the clip aired on ITV's Peston On Sunday, joked: 'It just goes to show Donald Trump is measured, neutral, doesn't want to get stuck into the punch-up.' Mr Farage added: 'He's given a very diplomatic answer.' The Euro MP said investors believe it makes no difference whether Britain chooses to stay or leave the EU. Asked if he would back Mr Trump for US president, Mr Farage said: 'I have difficulty with that. 'Let's put it like this, I couldn't vote for (Hillary Clinton) even if you paid me.' He added: 'If you put me up against a wall it would be (Mr Trump), not Hillary, but I have reservations. 'Encouraging people to beat up protesters, one or two things like that bother me, but look, I tell you what, I think he's going to win.'
Farage feeling uncomfortable with a man who says what he thinks is right, even if it is Trump; says more about Farage and explains a bit why he reneged on his resignation.
Maybe but
I believe that UKIP is the only party in Britain that 90% of it's voters would like Trump, speaking of which this is a very amusing and weird story:
So Trump leaks on purpose a tape of himself from 1991 impersonating his own publicist on the phone with reporters, the media take the bait and they have been talking about the contents of the tape of Trump bragging about himself for days.
You can say that Trump is a master of media manipulation, Larry Sabato is right when he says that Trump commands the stage.
Yes you could imagine the average Kipper at a Trump rally in a way you could not most Tory, LD or Labour voters. Trump is a media manipulator but I doubt anyone will vote on how well he impersonates his publicist!
True, Trump neither wins or loses votes from this, and the media are talking all the time about Trump bragging about dating Madonna in 1991 instead of other things.
The only things that Trump gains from all this are:
1. If the media talk about what he was doing in 1991 he can say the same about Hillary. 2. He can attack the Washington Post thanks to that story. 3. Journalists will not be so confident about their sources when digging dirt on Trump anymore (Trump leaked it himself remember). 4. The media will spend precious time on trivia, instead of serious stories about Trump.
A couple of things about the Fed- he never planned to play any of the clay masters, maybe one. He has coped with his back injury before. He will want to keep his slam record going...so I expect (hope) him to play.
Provided he can avoid Nishikori or Nadal in the quarters he has a route to the semis. He'll not go further.
Nishikori has potentially the best clay game of them all at the moment if it all comes together- and I think he has stepped up psychologically. I got something on him at 35's. At some point Nishikori is going to step up and start winning some big tournaments.
As much as Djokovic is super human, he cannot defy gravity JackW. The matches against Nadal and Nishikori were brutal. Yesterdays match against Nishikori was one of the cleanest ball striking contests I have ever seen which finished close to midnight. It was impossible to think Novak could be at all competitive today.
I've put on a ton on Federer for the French at 40's and still expect him to go deep to cash out, but I think Nishikori is the most likely to upset Djokovic. He seems to have matured this summer.
"Britons are more than twice as likely to say Boris Johnson would tell the truth about the EU than David Cameron (45% v 21%). Conservative voters also say Boris Johnson is more likely to tell the truth about the EU than the Prime Minister (42% v 27%). Similarly, Britons tend to say the campaigners for leaving the EU are more likely to tell the truth than the remain campaigners (39% v 24%), although a significant minority say they don’t know (38%)."
Sample highly skewed to UKIP supporters like almost all online polls.
Mike, a skewing (if you are right) of a few % to UKIP is not going to make much difference to 20% leads for LEAVE over REMAIN in the figures on "truth".
Exactly. There is a consistent dismissiveness by pro-Remain posters on here towards polls with findings they don't like.
It may be that ComRes overrates UKIP (personally, I think they do) but even if you calibrated it accordingly, they still would make for uncomfortable reading.
I think there's quite a bit of evidence accumulating now that David Cameron isn't the golden asset to the Remain campaign that he was thought to be.
Dismissing the findings of online opinion polls for this referendum is a classic example of blaming the messenger for delivering a message you don't want to hear.
The thing about opinion polls is that they are currently conspicuous by their absence.
(One amusing 'fact' totally unrelated - with one match of the football league season left, Sunderland have outscored Man Utd.)
O/t Fpt @hurstllama If you want to listen to stuff in bed without disturbing anyone, while avoiding headphones, then maybe look into under pillow speakers.
Thank you. I'd never before heard of such things but by the magic of Google I now have a pair on order for just £20. I am much obliged - talking books in bed could be a massive winner. The Cat probably won't mind.
I believe that the above photo is of the actual model of a future Berlin made by Speer, Hitlers architect, sometime in WW2. The large Domed building was to house a future Reichstag.
So here is a question completed unrelated to all this Eurotwaddle.
Does it make me a bad man if I admit that I have a real liking for Speer's architecture. Or is that like those people who are supposed not to like Wagner.
Speers architecture and Riefenstahl's films do go some way to demonstrate the appeal of Nazism.
Without Speer's organising genius for German industry taking over in 1942 when it became apparent that the war would be a long one, Nazi Germany may well have collapsed a lot more quickly.
That is where I have the problem. Speer is responsible for the huge forced labour programme that took millions of people from their homes to work for the German War effort. It is kind of difficult to divorce that from the aesthetic value of his architecture.
I suppose it is a bit like liking Gary Glitter records.
I don't think there's any issue with liking Wagner, Speer, or Gary Glitter records, apart from on the grounds of taste. It does not automatically signify approval of anti-semitism, Nazism or Paedophilia as far as I'm concerned. What is pleasing to the eye or ear is pleasing to the eye or ear. Unless you do a background check on every person who creates something you like, you can't live any other way.
Apparently, Germany's original choice for Eurovision was dropped because of his rather controversial views. So we ended up seeing the Grayson Perry tribute act!
The Remain camp should be even more worried with the upcoming Debates. If the pasting Farage gave Clegg is anything to go by, nappies needed for Number Ten...
I am also loving the dismissal of the polling by Mike Smithson and others. Plenty of times I have seen them speak of others dismissing polls that don't match opinion... back at'cha!
A couple of things about the Fed- he never planned to play any of the clay masters, maybe one. He has coped with his back injury before. He will want to keep his slam record going...so I expect (hope) him to play.
Provided he can avoid Nishikori or Nadal in the quarters he has a route to the semis. He'll not go further.
Nishikori has potentially the best clay game of them all at the moment if it all comes together- and I think he has stepped up psychologically. I got something on him at 35's. At some point Nishikori is going to step up and start winning some big tournaments.
As much as Djokovic is super human, he cannot defy gravity JackW. The matches against Nadal and Nishikori were brutal. Yesterdays match against Nishikori was one of the cleanest ball striking contests I have ever seen which finished close to midnight. It was impossible to think Novak could be at all competitive today.
I've put on a ton on Federer for the French at 40's and still expect him to go deep to cash out, but I think Nishikori is the most likely to upset Djokovic. He seems to have matured this summer.
I believe that the above photo is of the actual model of a future Berlin made by Speer, Hitlers architect, sometime in WW2. The large Domed building was to house a future Reichstag.
So here is a question completed unrelated to all this Eurotwaddle.
Does it make me a bad man if I admit that I have a real liking for Speer's architecture. Or is that like those people who are supposed not to like Wagner.
Speers architecture and Riefenstahl's films do go some way to demonstrate the appeal of Nazism.
Without Speer's organising genius for German industry taking over in 1942 when it became apparent that the war would be a long one, Nazi Germany may well have collapsed a lot more quickly.
That is where I have the problem. Speer is responsible for the huge forced labour programme that took millions of people from their homes to work for the German War effort. It is kind of difficult to divorce that from the aesthetic value of his architecture.
I suppose it is a bit like liking Gary Glitter records.
I don't think there's any issue with liking Wagner, Speer, or Gary Glitter records, apart from on the grounds of taste. It does not automatically signify approval of anti-semitism, Nazism or Paedophilia as far as I'm concerned. What is pleasing to the eye or ear is pleasing to the eye or ear. Unless you do a background check on every person who creates something you like, you can't live any other way.
Apparently, Germany's original choice for Eurovision was dropped because of his rather controversial views. So we ended up seeing the Grayson Perry tribute act!
Eurovision always was political. Now more than ever, and so Germany ended up with an abomination of all that is art.
"Britons are more than twice as likely to say Boris Johnson would tell the truth about the EU than David Cameron (45% v 21%). Conservative voters also say Boris Johnson is more likely to tell the truth about the EU than the Prime Minister (42% v 27%). Similarly, Britons tend to say the campaigners for leaving the EU are more likely to tell the truth than the remain campaigners (39% v 24%), although a significant minority say they don’t know (38%)."
Sample highly skewed to UKIP supporters like almost all online polls.
Mike, a skewing (if you are right) of a few % to UKIP is not going to make much difference to 20% leads for LEAVE over REMAIN in the figures on "truth".
Exactly. There is a consistent dismissiveness by pro-Remain posters on here towards polls with findings they don't like.
It may be that ComRes overrates UKIP (personally, I think they do) but even if you calibrated it accordingly, they still would make for uncomfortable reading.
I think there's quite a bit of evidence accumulating now that David Cameron isn't the golden asset to the Remain campaign that he was thought to be.
Dismissing the findings of online opinion polls for this referendum is a classic example of blaming the messenger for delivering a message you don't want to hear.
More like, the messenger has asked too many non-voter Ukip supporters and not enough people who are not signed up to earn pennies for polls.
I remember when PB comments had a healthy scepticism of the polls after May. That lasted right up to the point when the online polls started telling LEAVE supporters what they wanted to hear, contrary to the phone polls, the betting odds and the pundits.
The Remain camp should be even more worried with the upcoming Debates. If the pasting Farage gave Clegg is anything to go by, nappies needed for Number Ten...
I am also loving the dismissal of the polling by Mike Smithson and others. Plenty of times I have seen them speak of others dismissing polls that don't match opinion... back at'cha!
I think Mike is right to be sceptical of some of the polling and the focus upon the economic figures is fair enough given what happened last year. What I think should worry the Remainers is the campaign that Cameron and Co are undertaking. I fully expected an incoherent campaign by Leave with lots of controversial comments. I didn't expect it from Remain. Maybe they've just lost their marbles, but some of the things they've come out with says to me that they are worried.
"Britons are more than twice as likely to say Boris Johnson would tell the truth about the EU than David Cameron (45% v 21%). Conservative voters also say Boris Johnson is more likely to tell the truth about the EU than the Prime Minister (42% v 27%). Similarly, Britons tend to say the campaigners for leaving the EU are more likely to tell the truth than the remain campaigners (39% v 24%), although a significant minority say they don’t know (38%)."
Sample highly skewed to UKIP supporters like almost all online polls.
Mike, a skewing (if you are right) of a few % to UKIP is not going to make much difference to 20% leads for LEAVE over REMAIN in the figures on "truth".
Exactly. There is a consistent dismissiveness by pro-Remain posters on here towards polls with findings they don't like.
It may be that ComRes overrates UKIP (personally, I think they do) but even if you calibrated it accordingly, they still would make for uncomfortable reading.
I think there's quite a bit of evidence accumulating now that David Cameron isn't the golden asset to the Remain campaign that he was thought to be.
Dismissing the findings of online opinion polls for this referendum is a classic example of blaming the messenger for delivering a message you don't want to hear.
More like, the messenger has asked too many non-voter Ukip supporters and not enough people who are not signed up to earn pennies for polls.
I remember when PB comments had a healthy scepticism of the polls after May. That lasted right up to the point when the online polls started telling LEAVE supporters what they wanted to hear, contrary to the phone polls, the betting odds and the pundits.
I still have a healthy scepticism of the polls. I also know that most pundits are usually wrong and the betting odds are a reflection of the money being wagered and not a predictor of what will happen.
The Remain camp should be even more worried with the upcoming Debates. If the pasting Farage gave Clegg is anything to go by, nappies needed for Number Ten...
I am also loving the dismissal of the polling by Mike Smithson and others. Plenty of times I have seen them speak of others dismissing polls that don't match opinion... back at'cha!
I think Mike is right to be sceptical of some of the polling and the focus upon the economic figures is fair enough given what happened last year. What I think should worry the Remainers is the campaign that Cameron and Co are undertaking. I fully expected an incoherent campaign by Leave with lots of controversial comments. I didn't expect it from Remain. Maybe they've just lost their marbles, but some of the things they've come out with says to me that they are worried.
What happened last year is important, but it shouldn't be overplayed.
The polls were 3-4% "out". That made the difference between a score draw around 34% Lab - 34 % Con, and the actual result of c.30% Lab - c.37% Con.
So, if we were to apply a similar factor this time, the Remain lead might be 8% rather than "nil", when looking a score-draw amongst online polls, but no worse than that.
What made it look much much bigger last year was the fact that error made the difference in dozens of dozens of Tory seats and, together with the sniper targeting of a few ten thousand voters in those seats, led to a Tory majority that virtually no-one predicted.
The Remain camp should be even more worried with the upcoming Debates. If the pasting Farage gave Clegg is anything to go by, nappies needed for Number Ten...
I am also loving the dismissal of the polling by Mike Smithson and others. Plenty of times I have seen them speak of others dismissing polls that don't match opinion... back at'cha!
I think Mike is right to be sceptical of some of the polling and the focus upon the economic figures is fair enough given what happened last year. What I think should worry the Remainers is the campaign that Cameron and Co are undertaking. I fully expected an incoherent campaign by Leave with lots of controversial comments. I didn't expect it from Remain. Maybe they've just lost their marbles, but some of the things they've come out with says to me that they are worried.
What happened last year is important, but it shouldn't be overplayed.
The polls were 3-4% "out". That made the difference between a score draw around 34% Lab - 34 % Con, and the actual result of c.30% Lab - c.37% Con.
So, if we were to apply a similar factor this time, the Remain lead might be 8% rather than "nil", when looking a score-draw amongst online polls, but no worse than that.
What made it look much much bigger last year was the fact that error made the difference in dozens of dozens of Tory seats and, together with the sniper targeting of a few ten thousand voters in those seats, led to a Tory majority that virtually no-one predicted.
And, of course, the error could be in the other direction.
Interesting that we were being told that last year's GE result should have been obvious in hindsight if only we looked at Cameron's and Miliband's personal ratings and yet so many people seem to want to ignore that lesson now when Cameron is trading at a deep discount to Boris on trust.
In my mind, Leave are going to win because of three factors:
(1) Remain has made the fatal mistake of making a vote for Remain seem like a vote for the Establishment. Getting the IMF etc etc only works if people believe the message is impartial; otherwise, people just think the doomsayers are protecting their own backs.
(2) Leave has a very powerful "known" argument i.e. immigration. We can argue all night whether immigration is good for the economy but, unless you are a well-off family that benefits from cheap labour and feeling wonderful about having so much "diversity", a good chunk of ordinary people see the day to day impact in more crowded schools, hospital lists etc. It is something to which they can easily relate. Leave also has a very strong "unknown" argument that, if we vote to stay in, we are bound to get shafted in one form or another and we will not be "allowed" another vote (again, you can argue the constitutional niceties - it does not matter, it is what people think that counts).
Against this, Remain only has a potentially strong but questioned "unknown" argument i.e. we will be worse off by £4300. We could be but nobody knows and, given the counter-claims, a lot of people are likely to say they just do not know and / or the £4300 is made up.
(3) On leaders, Leave is seen as Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage; Remain as David Cameron and George Osborne. Whatever you say about Boris, people like him and he makes them (for whatever reason) feel good; as for Farage, a lot of people may not like him overall, but he speaks well and passionately on the EU and I have heard more than one vehement anti-Kipper state that Farage knows his stuff. On the other hand, Osborne is seen as slimy and untrustworthy and Cameron's ratings are going down the pan,
One other point. I do not know how the pollsters adjust for the "shy" answers but, given Remain is seen as the "proper" answer and that it is implied you must be borderline racist if you support Leave, I wonder whether we will have the same problem again of "shy Leavers".
"Britons are more than twice as likely to say Boris Johnson would tell the truth about the EU than David Cameron (45% v 21%). Conservative voters also say Boris Johnson is more likely to tell the truth about the EU than the Prime Minister (42% v 27%). Similarly, Britons tend to say the campaigners for leaving the EU are more likely to tell the truth than the remain campaigners (39% v 24%), although a significant minority say they don’t know (38%)."
Sample highly skewed to UKIP supporters like almost all online polls.
Mike, a skewing (if you are right) of a few % to UKIP is not going to make much difference to 20% leads for LEAVE over REMAIN in the figures on "truth".
Exactly. There is a consistent dismissiveness by pro-Remain posters on here towards polls with findings they don't like.
It may be that ComRes overrates UKIP (personally, I think they do) but even if you calibrated it accordingly, they still would make for uncomfortable reading.
I think there's quite a bit of evidence accumulating now that David Cameron isn't the golden asset to the Remain campaign that he was thought to be.
Dismissing the findings of online opinion polls for this referendum is a classic example of blaming the messenger for delivering a message you don't want to hear.
More like, the messenger has asked too many non-voter Ukip supporters and not enough people who are not signed up to earn pennies for polls.
I remember when PB comments had a healthy scepticism of the polls after May. That lasted right up to the point when the online polls started telling LEAVE supporters what they wanted to hear, contrary to the phone polls, the betting odds and the pundits.
We do have a healthy scepticism of polls. It is only the Remaniacs who are trying to claim that one set of polls is accurate and another not. Anyone with any sense doubts both sets.
The Remain camp should be even more worried with the upcoming Debates. If the pasting Farage gave Clegg is anything to go by, nappies needed for Number Ten...
I am also loving the dismissal of the polling by Mike Smithson and others. Plenty of times I have seen them speak of others dismissing polls that don't match opinion... back at'cha!
I think Mike is right to be sceptical of some of the polling and the focus upon the economic figures is fair enough given what happened last year. What I think should worry the Remainers is the campaign that Cameron and Co are undertaking. I fully expected an incoherent campaign by Leave with lots of controversial comments. I didn't expect it from Remain. Maybe they've just lost their marbles, but some of the things they've come out with says to me that they are worried.
What happened last year is important, but it shouldn't be overplayed.
The polls were 3-4% "out". That made the difference between a score draw around 34% Lab - 34 % Con, and the actual result of c.30% Lab - c.37% Con.
So, if we were to apply a similar factor this time, the Remain lead might be 8% rather than "nil", when looking a score-draw amongst online polls, but no worse than that.
What made it look much much bigger last year was the fact that error made the difference in dozens of dozens of Tory seats and, together with the sniper targeting of a few ten thousand voters in those seats, led to a Tory majority that virtually no-one predicted.
And, of course, the error could be in the other direction.
The Remain camp should be even more worried with the upcoming Debates. If the pasting Farage gave Clegg is anything to go by, nappies needed for Number Ten...
I am also loving the dismissal of the polling by Mike Smithson and others. Plenty of times I have seen them speak of others dismissing polls that don't match opinion... back at'cha!
I think Mike is right to be sceptical of some of the polling and the focus upon the economic figures is fair enough given what happened last year. What I think should worry the Remainers is the campaign that Cameron and Co are undertaking. I fully expected an incoherent campaign by Leave with lots of controversial comments. I didn't expect it from Remain. Maybe they've just lost their marbles, but some of the things they've come out with says to me that they are worried.
What happened last year is important, but it shouldn't be overplayed.
The polls were 3-4% "out". That made the difference between a score draw around 34% Lab - 34 % Con, and the actual result of c.30% Lab - c.37% Con.
So, if we were to apply a similar factor this time, the Remain lead might be 8% rather than "nil", when looking a score-draw amongst online polls, but no worse than that.
What made it look much much bigger last year was the fact that error made the difference in dozens of dozens of Tory seats and, together with the sniper targeting of a few ten thousand voters in those seats, led to a Tory majority that virtually no-one predicted.
And, of course, the error could be in the other direction.
It could be, although I think that is less likely.
The key difference here is that in a national referendum every vote counts. Sniper targeting isn't obvious, canvassing data will be very new (and limited) and the ground game, really, confined to where the campaigns have respective strengths and volunteers.
So we will get a lot of leaflets, public stalls, public meetings, posters and a very heavy air/social media war. But the ground war will be blotchier.
I believe that the above photo is of the actual model of a future Berlin made by Speer, Hitlers architect, sometime in WW2. The large Domed building was to house a future Reichstag.
The Remain camp should be even more worried with the upcoming Debates. If the pasting Farage gave Clegg is anything to go by, nappies needed for Number Ten...
I am also loving the dismissal of the polling by Mike Smithson and others. Plenty of times I have seen them speak of others dismissing polls that don't match opinion... back at'cha!
I think Mike is right to be sceptical of some of the polling and the focus upon the economic figures is fair enough given what happened last year. What I think should worry the Remainers is the campaign that Cameron and Co are undertaking. I fully expected an incoherent campaign by Leave with lots of controversial comments. I didn't expect it from Remain. Maybe they've just lost their marbles, but some of the things they've come out with says to me that they are worried.
What happened last year is important, but it shouldn't be overplayed.
The polls were 3-4% "out". That made the difference between a score draw around 34% Lab - 34 % Con, and the actual result of c.30% Lab - c.37% Con.
So, if we were to apply a similar factor this time, the Remain lead might be 8% rather than "nil", when looking a score-draw amongst online polls, but no worse than that.
What made it look much much bigger last year was the fact that error made the difference in dozens of dozens of Tory seats and, together with the sniper targeting of a few ten thousand voters in those seats, led to a Tory majority that virtually no-one predicted.
And, of course, the error could be in the other direction.
It could well be, which is why the 40-45% Remain on betfair at 22 looks like value to me.
I am following the same tactic that worked last GE. In effect I am laying the consensus by backing an unexpectedly large Leave win. I have backed Remain 60-65% too, but that looks less value.
I also see on the Telegraph website the following headline:
"Three million EU citizens in the UK could be deported if Britons vote for a 'Brexit', Home Office suggests"
This project fear nonsense has passed the point of absurdity. Does the Cameron clique really think anyone believes this sort of nonsense?
I'd have said no-one would, but last week I heard someone asking an EU work colleague about that very possibility, so now I don't discount anything people might believe.
Interesting that we were being told that last year's GE result should have been obvious in hindsight if only we looked at Cameron's and Miliband's personal ratings and yet so many people seem to want to ignore that lesson now when Cameron is trading at a deep discount to Boris on trust.
In my mind, Leave are going to win because of three factors:
(1) Remain has made the fatal mistake of making a vote for Remain seem like a vote for the Establishment. Getting the IMF etc etc only works if people believe the message is impartial; otherwise, people just think the doomsayers are protecting their own backs.
(2) Leave has a very powerful "known" argument i.e. immigration. We can argue all night whether immigration is good for the economy but, unless you are a well-off family that benefits from cheap labour and feeling wonderful about having so much "diversity", a good chunk of ordinary people see the day to day impact in more crowded schools, hospital lists etc. It is something to which they can easily relate. Leave also has a very strong "unknown" argument that, if we vote to stay in, we are bound to get shafted in one form or another and we will not be "allowed" another vote (again, you can argue the constitutional niceties - it does not matter, it is what people think that counts).
Against this, Remain only has a potentially strong but questioned "unknown" argument i.e. we will be worse off by £4300. We could be but nobody knows and, given the counter-claims, a lot of people are likely to say they just do not know and / or the £4300 is made up.
(3) On leaders, Leave is seen as Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage; Remain as David Cameron and George Osborne. Whatever you say about Boris, people like him and he makes them (for whatever reason) feel good; as for Farage, a lot of people may not like him overall, but he speaks well and passionately on the EU and I have heard more than one vehement anti-Kipper state that Farage knows his stuff. On the other hand, Osborne is seen as slimy and untrustworthy and Cameron's ratings are going down the pan,
One other point. I do not know how the pollsters adjust for the "shy" answers but, given Remain is seen as the "proper" answer and that it is implied you must be borderline racist if you support Leave, I wonder whether we will have the same problem again of "shy Leavers".
Bullseye.
The phones definitely have a problem with discovering right wing/taboo opinion.
I'm not sure it's enough for leave to win, but I look at certain pollsters' findings compared to their normal performance and believe Leave are probably around the 47/48 mark based on equal turnout.
"Britons are more than twice as likely to say Boris Johnson would tell the truth about the EU than David Cameron (45% v 21%). Conservative voters also say Boris Johnson is more likely to tell the truth about the EU than the Prime Minister (42% v 27%). Similarly, Britons tend to say the campaigners for leaving the EU are more likely to tell the truth than the remain campaigners (39% v 24%), although a significant minority say they don’t know (38%)."
Sample highly skewed to UKIP supporters like almost all online polls.
Mike, a skewing (if you are right) of a few % to UKIP is not going to make much difference to 20% leads for LEAVE over REMAIN in the figures on "truth".
Exactly. There is a consistent dismissiveness by pro-Remain posters on here towards polls with findings they don't like.
It may be that ComRes overrates UKIP (personally, I think they do) but even if you calibrated it accordingly, they still would make for uncomfortable reading.
I think there's quite a bit of evidence accumulating now that David Cameron isn't the golden asset to the Remain campaign that he was thought to be.
Dismissing the findings of online opinion polls for this referendum is a classic example of blaming the messenger for delivering a message you don't want to hear.
More like, the messenger has asked too many non-voter Ukip supporters and not enough people who are not signed up to earn pennies for polls.
I remember when PB comments had a healthy scepticism of the polls after May. That lasted right up to the point when the online polls started telling LEAVE supporters what they wanted to hear, contrary to the phone polls, the betting odds and the pundits.
Of course, it's possible that online polls are oversampling Leave supporters. But then, it's just as possible that phone polls are undersampling Leave supporters. We won't know, until June 24th.
The Remain camp should be even more worried with the upcoming Debates. If the pasting Farage gave Clegg is anything to go by, nappies needed for Number Ten...
I am also loving the dismissal of the polling by Mike Smithson and others. Plenty of times I have seen them speak of others dismissing polls that don't match opinion... back at'cha!
I think Mike is right to be sceptical of some of the polling and the focus upon the economic figures is fair enough given what happened last year. What I think should worry the Remainers is the campaign that Cameron and Co are undertaking. I fully expected an incoherent campaign by Leave with lots of controversial comments. I didn't expect it from Remain. Maybe they've just lost their marbles, but some of the things they've come out with says to me that they are worried.
What happened last year is important, but it shouldn't be overplayed.
The polls were 3-4% "out". That made the difference between a score draw around 34% Lab - 34 % Con, and the actual result of c.30% Lab - c.37% Con.
So, if we were to apply a similar factor this time, the Remain lead might be 8% rather than "nil", when looking a score-draw amongst online polls, but no worse than that.
What made it look much much bigger last year was the fact that error made the difference in dozens of dozens of Tory seats and, together with the sniper targeting of a few ten thousand voters in those seats, led to a Tory majority that virtually no-one predicted.
And, of course, the error could be in the other direction.
The error is probably in a predictable direction: people who are too busy to waste time with online polls!
If so, it's easy to see why they voted Conservative last time. They probably had jobs and were doing quite well thank you very much. And probably they don't care much about standing up and being counted or making their voices heard, especially online where there is a conscious act of opting in rather than being rung up. Easy to see why these traits add to a Conservative tilt.
This time it's more of a guess that they are more likely to vote REMAIN based on the evident passion of LEAVE and the likely status-quo bias that would lead to REMAIN.
"Britons are more than twice as likely to say Boris Johnson would tell the truth about the EU than David Cameron (45% v 21%). Conservative voters also say Boris Johnson is more likely to tell the truth about the EU than the Prime Minister (42% v 27%). Similarly, Britons tend to say the campaigners for leaving the EU are more likely to tell the truth than the remain campaigners (39% v 24%), although a significant minority say they don’t know (38%)."
Sample highly skewed to UKIP supporters like almost all online polls.
Mike, a skewing (if you are right) of a few % to UKIP is not going to make much difference to 20% leads for LEAVE over REMAIN in the figures on "truth".
Exactly. There is a consistent dismissiveness by pro-Remain posters on here towards polls with findings they don't like.
It may be that ComRes overrates UKIP (personally, I think they do) but even if you calibrated it accordingly, they still would make for uncomfortable reading.
I think there's quite a bit of evidence accumulating now that David Cameron isn't the golden asset to the Remain campaign that he was thought to be.
Dismissing the findings of online opinion polls for this referendum is a classic example of blaming the messenger for delivering a message you don't want to hear.
More like, the messenger has asked too many non-voter Ukip supporters and not enough people who are not signed up to earn pennies for polls.
I remember when PB comments had a healthy scepticism of the polls after May. That lasted right up to the point when the online polls started telling LEAVE supporters what they wanted to hear, contrary to the phone polls, the betting odds and the pundits.
We do have a healthy scepticism of polls. It is only the Remaniacs who are trying to claim that one set of polls is accurate and another not. Anyone with any sense doubts both sets.
We can conclude that the polls are not showing what some Remainers expected them to show by this stage, so they are instead explaining what they should mean nonetheless.
I believe that the above photo is of the actual model of a future Berlin made by Speer, Hitlers architect, sometime in WW2. The large Domed building was to house a future Reichstag.
Interesting that we were being told that last year's GE result should have been obvious in hindsight if only we looked at Cameron's and Miliband's personal ratings and yet so many people seem to want to ignore that lesson now when Cameron is trading at a deep discount to Boris on trust.
In my mind, Leave are going to win because of three factors:
(1) Remain has made the fatal mistake of making a vote for Remain seem like a vote for the Establishment. Getting the IMF etc etc only works if people believe the message is impartial; otherwise, people just think the doomsayers are protecting their own backs. ...
Good analysis but have to take issue with this. This is an advantage for REMAIN. When's the last time England voted against the establishment? You could see REMAIN's strategy as being to win over the timid and pro-status quo non-metropolitan English voter with a phalanx of worthies like Barack Obama and Mark Carney, while the fears of the (more courageous, anti-establishment) UK periphery about domination by England do the job elsewhere.
If online polls were junk, people wouldn't bother to commission them. Since 2002, when people began commissioning them, neither online, nor phone polls, have proved obviously superior to the other. But some firms, such as ICM, Yougov, Ipsos MORI, Opinium, have a good track record.
EPG - I get your point but, to paraphrase the old investment line, past performance is not a predictor of the future. It is clear from what is happening in politics across North America and Europe that a growing number of people are feeling as though they are being stitched up by the "Establishment". Trump never happened before but is happening now.
No-one is interested in Hitler except for the fact that he was responsible for the death of tens of millions of people. To say something is just like Hitler, except it didn't lead to tens of millions of people being killed, is imbecile and the ultimate slander.
I don't think it's just because I support the other side that I think Leave are really not carrying the arguments. The Leave party also don't appear to have a clue of what will happen next after Brexit. And the oddball quotient amongst the leaders is particularly high. Cameron. Osborne etc may be upleasant people, dishonest even, but they seem rational.
Given all that, it's strange Leave is doing so well in the polls. All I can think is that people are focused on the question, "Should the United Kingdom leave the European Union?", and think, definitely leave, and are happy to not get distracted by anything else.
Interesting that we were being told that last year's GE result should have been obvious in hindsight if only we looked at Cameron's and Miliband's personal ratings and yet so many people seem to want to ignore that lesson now when Cameron is trading at a deep discount to Boris on trust.
In my mind, Leave are going to win because of three factors:
(1) Remain has made the fatal mistake of making a vote for Remain seem like a vote for the Establishment. Getting the IMF etc etc only works if people believe the message is impartial; otherwise, people just think the doomsayers are protecting their own backs. ...
Good analysis but have to take issue with this. This is an advantage for REMAIN. When's the last time England voted against the establishment? You could see REMAIN's strategy as being to win over the timid and pro-status quo non-metropolitan English voter with a phalanx of worthies like Barack Obama and Mark Carney, while the fears of the (more courageous, anti-establishment) UK periphery about domination by England do the job elsewhere.
Probably, the 1945 election. Votes against the establishment are rare, but they happen.
Meanwhile the EU referendum market continues to drift to Remain. It was last matched at 1.40. Those betting seem to think the last few days' events have been bad for Leave.
I also see on the Telegraph website the following headline:
"Three million EU citizens in the UK could be deported if Britons vote for a 'Brexit', Home Office suggests"
This project fear nonsense has passed the point of absurdity. Does the Cameron clique really think anyone believes this sort of nonsense?
Why, exactly is it 'nonsense'? They are here legally because of the freedom of movement of Labour - something LEAVE wants to end. What happens after that? We don't know, because it hasn't been negotiated yet I expect we would want to 'grand father' those already here - but what about spouses & dependents? LEAVE are the ones very exercised by immigration - have they got a policy they would like the government to pursue in the event of a LEAVE vote?
These are all issues that the duly elected government of the UK would decide. It is called democracy and not subject to an edict from a foreign land or a foreign court. Now I accept that it may not be how you want this country run, but it is how I want this country run.
I also see on the Telegraph website the following headline:
"Three million EU citizens in the UK could be deported if Britons vote for a 'Brexit', Home Office suggests"
This project fear nonsense has passed the point of absurdity. Does the Cameron clique really think anyone believes this sort of nonsense?
Why, exactly is it 'nonsense'?
They are here legally because of the freedom of movement of Labour - something LEAVE wants to end.
What happens after that?
We don't know, because it hasn't been negotiated yet
I expect we would want to 'grand father' those already here - but what about spouses & dependents?
LEAVE are the ones very exercised by immigration - have they got a policy they would like the government to pursue in the event of a LEAVE vote?
We also know from the NI data and ONS figures that many migrants are transient, coming for short periods for seasonal work. It is their legitimate concern that if they go back for the winter that they will not be readmitted.
EPG - I get your point but, to paraphrase the old investment line, past performance is not a predictor of the future. It is clear from what is happening in politics across North America and Europe that a growing number of people are feeling as though they are being stitched up by the "Establishment". Trump never happened before but is happening now.
Agreed, past is not future. But we can consider the differences between England and the USA/Greece/France; most obviously, at the social level, the class system, and the absence of a republican or revolutionary heritage; a tradition instead of deference to authority; no history of radical politics in government. At the material level, there is more prosperity, less decline, less unemployment. More people who depend on trade and finance, less likely to fall for the vampire-squid tropes. At the level of electoral politics, the anti-establishment vote for Ukip keeps under-delivering on promise, essentially because a certain demographic keeps saying it will vote for Ukip but goes back to the Tories every time.
Taking the principle of what people actually think how many would relate to the governor of the Bank of England, the IMF and others they probably have little interest in and know even less about let alone heard off. Most are not as clewed up on these people as are people in the PB bubble.
On the other hand these same people would probably have observed Eurovision and the final TV vote and thought precisely as one poster said on here last night.
"they really do hate us"
It's these perceptions, even though it's only a singing competition but people relate to it (even on here last night) and more so than some bigwig they probably have never heard of. What Europe thinks of us was on show last night and in fact it's been a standing joke for years as the late Mr Wogan never tired of pointing out. Perception is everything and I would suggest that Eurovision probably has had more effect on the average person that any number of Carneys. Time will tell..
If online polls were junk, people wouldn't bother to commission them. Since 2002, when people began commissioning them, neither online, nor phone polls, have proved obviously superior to the other. But some firms, such as ICM, Yougov, Ipsos MORI, Opinium, have a good track record.
For non-GE results the online polls have had some good results. Last time I checked this was not a GE. Am I right?
I also see on the Telegraph website the following headline:
"Three million EU citizens in the UK could be deported if Britons vote for a 'Brexit', Home Office suggests"
This project fear nonsense has passed the point of absurdity. Does the Cameron clique really think anyone believes this sort of nonsense?
Why, exactly is it 'nonsense'?
They are here legally because of the freedom of movement of Labour - something LEAVE wants to end.
What happens after that?
We don't know, because it hasn't been negotiated yet
I expect we would want to 'grand father' those already here - but what about spouses & dependents?
LEAVE are the ones very exercised by immigration - have they got a policy they would like the government to pursue in the event of a LEAVE vote?
My expectation is that people who are here lawfully will be allowed to remain here. It does not follow that they will be allowed to bring in dependants.
I'm not expecting to see the British government pursue a policy of ethnic cleansing.
Agreed excellent assessment. Taking the principle of what people actually think how many would relate to the governor of the Bank of England, the IMF and others they probably have little interest in and know even less about let alone heard off. Most are not as clewed up on these people as are people in the PB bubble. On the other hand these same people would probably have observed Eurovision and the final TV vote and thought precisely as one poster said on here last night. "they really do hate us" It's these perceptions, even though it's only a singing competition but people relate to it (even on here last night) and more so than some bigwig they probably have never heard of. What Europe thinks of us was on show last night and in fact it's been a standing joke for years as the late Mr Wogan never tired of pointing out. Perception is everything and I would suggest that Eurovision probably has had more effect on the average person that any number of Carneys. Time will tell..
I am not a watcher of Eurovision since the 1990s when it became easy to predict who would vote for who based on nationality and their neighbours. But "they really do hate us" might be the view of some? Of coure some countries apparently resent the fact that we get an automatic right to be in the final round.
I also see on the Telegraph website the following headline:
"Three million EU citizens in the UK could be deported if Britons vote for a 'Brexit', Home Office suggests"
This project fear nonsense has passed the point of absurdity. Does the Cameron clique really think anyone believes this sort of nonsense?
Why, exactly is it 'nonsense'?
They are here legally because of the freedom of movement of Labour - something LEAVE wants to end.
What happens after that?
We don't know, because it hasn't been negotiated yet
I expect we would want to 'grand father' those already here - but what about spouses & dependents?
LEAVE are the ones very exercised by immigration - have they got a policy they would like the government to pursue in the event of a LEAVE vote?
My expectation is that people who are here lawfully will be allowed to remain here. It does not follow that they will be allowed to bring in dependants.
I'm not expecting to see the British government pursue a policy of ethnic cleansing.
It's a hilarious argument. Don't vote Leave or else we'll become lunatics!
Interesting that we were being told that last year's GE result should have been obvious in hindsight if only we looked at Cameron's and Miliband's personal ratings and yet so many people seem to want to ignore that lesson now when Cameron is trading at a deep discount to Boris on trust.
In my mind, Leave are going to win because of three factors:
(1) Remain has made the fatal mistake of making a vote for Remain seem like a vote for the Establishment. Getting the IMF etc etc only works if people believe the message is impartial; otherwise, people just think the doomsayers are protecting their own backs. ...
Good analysis but have to take issue with this. This is an advantage for REMAIN. When's the last time England voted against the establishment? You could see REMAIN's strategy as being to win over the timid and pro-status quo non-metropolitan English voter with a phalanx of worthies like Barack Obama and Mark Carney, while the fears of the (more courageous, anti-establishment) UK periphery about domination by England do the job elsewhere.
Probably, the 1945 election. Votes against the establishment are rare, but they happen.
A key difference now is that electorates in the west seem to generally be in a much more anti-establishment mood as living standards have stagnated. A related factor in the UK is the decline of deference as society has become much less class based.
Another factor to add to the list is that many older voters who voted in the first referendum in the 70s feel conned "I only voted for a common market". You fool me once...
I also see on the Telegraph website the following headline:
"Three million EU citizens in the UK could be deported if Britons vote for a 'Brexit', Home Office suggests"
This project fear nonsense has passed the point of absurdity. Does the Cameron clique really think anyone believes this sort of nonsense?
Why, exactly is it 'nonsense'?
They are here legally because of the freedom of movement of Labour - something LEAVE wants to end.
What happens after that?
We don't know, because it hasn't been negotiated yet
I expect we would want to 'grand father' those already here - but what about spouses & dependents?
LEAVE are the ones very exercised by immigration - have they got a policy they would like the government to pursue in the event of a LEAVE vote?
My expectation is that people who are here lawfully will be allowed to remain here. It does not follow that they will be allowed to bring in dependants.
I'm not expecting to see the British government pursue a policy of ethnic cleansing.
It's a hilarious argument. Don't vote Leave or else we'll become lunatics!
IIRC, when immigration controls were introduced for Commonwealth citizens in 1962, there was no mass deportation of people lawfully here. I would expect something similar if immigration controls were introduced for EU citizens.
EPG - I get your point but, to paraphrase the old investment line, past performance is not a predictor of the future. It is clear from what is happening in politics across North America and Europe that a growing number of people are feeling as though they are being stitched up by the "Establishment". Trump never happened before but is happening now.
Agreed, past is not future. But we can consider the differences between England and the USA/Greece/France; most obviously, at the social level, the class system, and the absence of a republican or revolutionary heritage; a tradition instead of deference to authority; no history of radical politics in government. At the material level, there is more prosperity, less decline, less unemployment. More people who depend on trade and finance, less likely to fall for the vampire-squid tropes. At the level of electoral politics, the anti-establishment vote for Ukip keeps under-delivering on promise, essentially because a certain demographic keeps saying it will vote for Ukip but goes back to the Tories every time.
I think this is where Cameron et al are coming from in their view on the Referendum i.e. the plebs will fall back into line. I doubt it will work this time. Too many people seem to feel as though their country is not heading in the right direction and will see the vote as their last, great chance.
Comments
It may be that ComRes overrates UKIP (personally, I think they do) but even if you calibrated it accordingly, they still would make for uncomfortable reading.
I think there's quite a bit of evidence accumulating now that David Cameron isn't the golden asset to the Remain campaign that he was thought to be.
This is the silliest column i have read in many a long year, i trust you will come on here and apologise when you have been proved wrong as you are going to be. WOEFUL
Damn! I am agreeing with SeanT, I must get off religion and back onto hard drugs.
@LBC: Ken Livingstone tells @IainDale that the Labour leadership should invite Lutfur Rahmann back into the party. #TowerHamlets
'Ukip leader Nigel Farage, responding to the clip aired on ITV's Peston On Sunday, joked: 'It just goes to show Donald Trump is measured, neutral, doesn't want to get stuck into the punch-up.'
Mr Farage added: 'He's given a very diplomatic answer.'
The Euro MP said investors believe it makes no difference whether Britain chooses to stay or leave the EU.
Asked if he would back Mr Trump for US president, Mr Farage said: 'I have difficulty with that.
'Let's put it like this, I couldn't vote for (Hillary Clinton) even if you paid me.'
He added: 'If you put me up against a wall it would be (Mr Trump), not Hillary, but I have reservations.
'Encouraging people to beat up protesters, one or two things like that bother me, but look, I tell you what, I think he's going to win.'
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3591360/Donald-Trump-insists-Britain-NOT-queue-trade-deal-wins-White-House.html
I've kept the 'g'!
https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/731908755990798336
https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/731906623308890112
It promises a colourful Democratic National convention in Philadelphia were Hillary is supposedly going to be crowned.
To be fair, I've been expecting them to choke at any point since Xmas.
And in last few weeks (late March) I dared to hope.
Personally, I am struggling to see how dropping in any reference to Hitler (no matter how tangential) into an interview helps Leave, other than it forces the BBC to dominate the headlines with it.
Maybe it's calculated to seed a highly negative psychological connotation with the EU, which will outweigh any outrage amongst the already committed Remainers, I don't know.
Does it make me a bad man if I admit that I have a real liking for Speer's architecture. Or is that like those people who are supposed not to like Wagner.
But the chinese like Speer's architecture, they hired his son for the Beijing Olympics of 2008.
Just need a Smalling hat-trick and the PB Fantasy League is mine too.... hmm...
To my mind the top five seeds - Dyokovic, Murray, Federer, Warwinka and Nadal all clearly make the cut.
Of the other five players in the top ten only Nishikora and Tsonga have the weapons on their day to make a run.
Outside of the top ten Dominic Thiem is running into some fine form but not probably not good enough to trouble the top four this year.
I see a Djokovic/Murray final as most probable.
None are right or wrong.
These are all professional polling companies with an interest both in accuracy and future business.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3-5daajOopI
So Trump leaks on purpose a tape of himself from 1991 impersonating his own publicist on the phone with reporters, the media take the bait and they have been talking about the contents of the tape of Trump bragging about himself for days.
You can say that Trump is a master of media manipulation, Larry Sabato is right when he says that Trump commands the stage.
Without Speer's organising genius for German industry taking over in 1942 when it became apparent that the war would be a long one, Nazi Germany may well have collapsed a lot more quickly.
*raises imaginary glass*
I still think it will be Remain but surely not with a decisive margin.
The only things that Trump gains from all this are:
1. If the media talk about what he was doing in 1991 he can say the same about Hillary.
2. He can attack the Washington Post thanks to that story.
3. Journalists will not be so confident about their sources when digging dirt on Trump anymore (Trump leaked it himself remember).
4. The media will spend precious time on trivia, instead of serious stories about Trump.
I suppose it is a bit like liking Gary Glitter records.
I suppose Speer came closest to being a Nazi who was self aware enough to analyse his idealogy and how it motivated him, up to a point, while all the greatest critiqu-ers of Stalinist Communism tended to be ex-Communists or socialists.
Fpt
@hurstllama
If you want to listen to stuff in bed without disturbing anyone, while avoiding headphones, then maybe look into under pillow speakers.
(One amusing 'fact' totally unrelated - with one match of the football league season left, Sunderland have outscored Man Utd.)
I am also loving the dismissal of the polling by Mike Smithson and others. Plenty of times I have seen them speak of others dismissing polls that don't match opinion... back at'cha!
I remember when PB comments had a healthy scepticism of the polls after May. That lasted right up to the point when the online polls started telling LEAVE supporters what they wanted to hear, contrary to the phone polls, the betting odds and the pundits.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/matt/
I also see on the Telegraph website the following headline:
"Three million EU citizens in the UK could be deported if Britons vote for a 'Brexit', Home Office suggests"
This project fear nonsense has passed the point of absurdity. Does the Cameron clique really think anyone believes this sort of nonsense?
The polls were 3-4% "out". That made the difference between a score draw around 34% Lab - 34 % Con, and the actual result of c.30% Lab - c.37% Con.
So, if we were to apply a similar factor this time, the Remain lead might be 8% rather than "nil", when looking a score-draw amongst online polls, but no worse than that.
What made it look much much bigger last year was the fact that error made the difference in dozens of dozens of Tory seats and, together with the sniper targeting of a few ten thousand voters in those seats, led to a Tory majority that virtually no-one predicted.
In my mind, Leave are going to win because of three factors:
(1) Remain has made the fatal mistake of making a vote for Remain seem like a vote for the Establishment. Getting the IMF etc etc only works if people believe the message is impartial; otherwise, people just think the doomsayers are protecting their own backs.
(2) Leave has a very powerful "known" argument i.e. immigration. We can argue all night whether immigration is good for the economy but, unless you are a well-off family that benefits from cheap labour and feeling wonderful about having so much "diversity", a good chunk of ordinary people see the day to day impact in more crowded schools, hospital lists etc. It is something to which they can easily relate. Leave also has a very strong "unknown" argument that, if we vote to stay in, we are bound to get shafted in one form or another and we will not be "allowed" another vote (again, you can argue the constitutional niceties - it does not matter, it is what people think that counts).
Against this, Remain only has a potentially strong but questioned "unknown" argument i.e. we will be worse off by £4300. We could be but nobody knows and, given the counter-claims, a lot of people are likely to say they just do not know and / or the £4300 is made up.
(3) On leaders, Leave is seen as Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage; Remain as David Cameron and George Osborne. Whatever you say about Boris, people like him and he makes them (for whatever reason) feel good; as for Farage, a lot of people may not like him overall, but he speaks well and passionately on the EU and I have heard more than one vehement anti-Kipper state that Farage knows his stuff. On the other hand, Osborne is seen as slimy and untrustworthy and Cameron's ratings are going down the pan,
One other point. I do not know how the pollsters adjust for the "shy" answers but, given Remain is seen as the "proper" answer and that it is implied you must be borderline racist if you support Leave, I wonder whether we will have the same problem again of "shy Leavers".
The key difference here is that in a national referendum every vote counts. Sniper targeting isn't obvious, canvassing data will be very new (and limited) and the ground game, really, confined to where the campaigns have respective strengths and volunteers.
So we will get a lot of leaflets, public stalls, public meetings, posters and a very heavy air/social media war. But the ground war will be blotchier.
I am following the same tactic that worked last GE. In effect I am laying the consensus by backing an unexpectedly large Leave win. I have backed Remain 60-65% too, but that looks less value.
This is the exact same playbook.
The phones definitely have a problem with discovering right wing/taboo opinion.
I'm not sure it's enough for leave to win, but I look at certain pollsters' findings compared to their normal performance and believe Leave are probably around the 47/48 mark based on equal turnout.
people who are too busy to waste time with online polls!
If so, it's easy to see why they voted Conservative last time. They probably had jobs and were doing quite well thank you very much. And probably they don't care much about standing up and being counted or making their voices heard, especially online where there is a conscious act of opting in rather than being rung up. Easy to see why these traits add to a Conservative tilt.
This time it's more of a guess that they are more likely to vote REMAIN based on the evident passion of LEAVE and the likely status-quo bias that would lead to REMAIN.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schwerbelastungskörper
They are here legally because of the freedom of movement of Labour - something LEAVE wants to end.
What happens after that?
We don't know, because it hasn't been negotiated yet
I expect we would want to 'grand father' those already here - but what about spouses & dependents?
LEAVE are the ones very exercised by immigration - have they got a policy they would like the government to pursue in the event of a LEAVE vote?
No-one is interested in Hitler except for the fact that he was responsible for the death of tens of millions of people. To say something is just like Hitler, except it didn't lead to tens of millions of people being killed, is imbecile and the ultimate slander.
I don't think it's just because I support the other side that I think Leave are really not carrying the arguments. The Leave party also don't appear to have a clue of what will happen next after Brexit. And the oddball quotient amongst the leaders is particularly high. Cameron. Osborne etc may be upleasant people, dishonest even, but they seem rational.
Given all that, it's strange Leave is doing so well in the polls. All I can think is that people are focused on the question, "Should the United Kingdom leave the European Union?", and think, definitely leave, and are happy to not get distracted by anything else.
Taking the principle of what people actually think how many would relate to the governor of the Bank of England, the IMF and others they probably have little interest in and know even less about let alone heard off. Most are not as clewed up on these people as are people in the PB bubble.
On the other hand these same people would probably have observed Eurovision and the final TV vote and thought precisely as one poster said on here last night.
"they really do hate us"
It's these perceptions, even though it's only a singing competition but people relate to it (even on here last night) and more so than some bigwig they probably have never heard of. What Europe thinks of us was on show last night and in fact it's been a standing joke for years as the late Mr Wogan never tired of pointing out. Perception is everything and I would suggest that Eurovision probably has had more effect on the average person that any number of Carneys. Time will tell..
I'm not expecting to see the British government pursue a policy of ethnic cleansing.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/25/after-40-years-of-being-lied-to-its-time-to-leave-the-eu/
Another factor to add to the list is that many older voters who voted in the first referendum in the 70s feel conned "I only voted for a common market". You fool me once...