If online polls were junk, people wouldn't bother to commission them. Since 2002, when people began commissioning them, neither online, nor phone polls, have proved obviously superior to the other. But some firms, such as ICM, Yougov, Ipsos MORI, Opinium, have a good track record.
For non-GE results the online polls have had some good results. Last time I checked this was not a GE. Am I right?
It depends on the question TCPB.
If the question is, 'who was better at forecasting Tory/Lab in 2015?", then the answer is phones.
If the question is, 'who was better at forecasting Right/Left in 2015?", then the answer is internet.
The next question becomes, "Is the referendum a contest between Tory and Labour, or is it a contest between left and right?"
Interesting that we were being told that last year's GE result should have been obvious in hindsight if only we looked at Cameron's and Miliband's personal ratings and yet so many people seem to want to ignore that lesson now when Cameron is trading at a deep discount to Boris on trust.
In my mind, Leave are going to win because of three factors:
(1) Remain has made the fatal mistake of making a vote for Remain seem like a vote for the Establishment. Getting the IMF etc etc only works if people believe the message is impartial; otherwise, people just think the doomsayers are protecting their own backs. ...
Good analysis but have to take issue with this. This is an advantage for REMAIN. When's the last time England voted against the establishment? You could see REMAIN's strategy as being to win over the timid and pro-status quo non-metropolitan English voter with a phalanx of worthies like Barack Obama and Mark Carney, while the fears of the (more courageous, anti-establishment) UK periphery about domination by England do the job elsewhere.
Probably, the 1945 election. Votes against the establishment are rare, but they happen.
A key difference now is that electorates in the west seem to generally be in a much more anti-establishment mood as living standards have stagnated. A related factor in the UK is the decline of deference as society has become much less class based.
Another factor to add to the list is that many older voters who voted in the first referendum in the 70s feel conned "I only voted for a common market". You fool me once...
I think most people take an instrumental view of politics. They don't vote for parties because they love them, but rather, on the basis of what they can deliver. Fail to deliver a rising standard of living, and they'll look elsewhere.
Interesting that we were being told that last year's GE result should have been obvious in hindsight if only we looked at Cameron's and Miliband's personal ratings and yet so many people seem to want to ignore that lesson now when Cameron is trading at a deep discount to Boris on trust.
In my mind, Leave are going to win because of three factors:
(1) Remain has made the fatal mistake of making a vote for Remain seem like a vote for the Establishment. Getting the IMF etc etc only works if people believe the message is impartial; otherwise, people just think the doomsayers are protecting their own backs. ...
Good analysis but have to take issue with this. This is an advantage for REMAIN. When's the last time England voted against the establishment? You could see REMAIN's strategy as being to win over the timid and pro-status quo non-metropolitan English voter with a phalanx of worthies like Barack Obama and Mark Carney, while the fears of the (more courageous, anti-establishment) UK periphery about domination by England do the job elsewhere.
Probably, the 1945 election. Votes against the establishment are rare, but they happen.
It's an interesting one, right, 1945? Because these guys had to get into government running domestic policy during the War before they were trusted to do so afterward - and even then they were almost ejected the first chance the British people got. It was the provincial towns and the prosperous suburbs that did for Labour that time, too.
The 1923 and 1929 results were definitely a swing away from the government of the time, but the consequences were absolutely dire for the Labour Party and either signalled or solidified the instinctive conservatism of the English voter.
On the other hand these same people would probably have observed Eurovision and the final TV vote and thought precisely as one poster said on here last night.
"they really do hate us"
It's these perceptions, even though it's only a singing competition but people relate to it (even on here last night) and more so than some bigwig they probably have never heard of. What Europe thinks of us was on show last night and in fact it's been a standing joke for years as the late Mr Wogan never tired of pointing out. Perception is everything and I would suggest that Eurovision probably has had more effect on the average person that any number of Carneys. Time will tell..
That was me! While I doubt too many votes will be won off the back of last night, it was rather unfortunate timing that Eurovision laid bare some quite big discrepancies between the juries and the popular vote.
Personally I thought we had a decent song, nothing special, but better than a lot of the other songs. I had a theory that the popular vote was more likely to be skewed by the running order than the jury vote. I think I heard them say that the juries made up their minds based on rehearsal performances. Anyway, here's how the last three songs scored with the viewers (jury vote in brackets):
Armenia - 134 (115) UK - 8 (54) Austria - 120 (31)
So we need a lot more data points that this - and perhaps someone will keep a track of this - but both Armenia and Austria outscored their jury vote. The UK entry didn't. Perhaps our people in Europe don't watch/vote, but it's interesting that we didn't get a final slot boost to our public vote.
I believe that the above photo is of the actual model of a future Berlin made by Speer, Hitlers architect, sometime in WW2. The large Domed building was to house a future Reichstag.
So here is a question completed unrelated to all this Eurotwaddle.
Does it make me a bad man if I admit that I have a real liking for Speer's architecture. Or is that like those people who are supposed not to like Wagner.
You might as well say you loathe air travel, space rockets, calisthenics, vegetarianism, motorways and the VW Beetle, because they happened to be pioneered or popularised by the Nazis...
The home office are idiots stating that EU citizens will be chucked out if we vote Brexit. I quote from migration watch.
"Those EU citizens already living and working in the UK would retain their existing rights. The same would apply to British citizens living and working in the EU. This arises from the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties, 1969. Generally speaking, withdrawing from a treaty releases the parties from any future obligation to each other, but does not affect any rights or obligations acquired under it before withdrawal."
If online polls were junk, people wouldn't bother to commission them. Since 2002, when people began commissioning them, neither online, nor phone polls, have proved obviously superior to the other. But some firms, such as ICM, Yougov, Ipsos MORI, Opinium, have a good track record.
For non-GE results the online polls have had some good results. Last time I checked this was not a GE. Am I right?
It depends on the question TCPB. If the question is, 'who was better at forecasting Tory/Lab in 2015?", then the answer is phones. If the question is, 'who was better at forecasting Right/Left in 2015?", then the answer is internet. The next question becomes, "Is the referendum a contest between Tory and Labour, or is it a contest between left and right?"
If online polls were junk, people wouldn't bother to commission them. Since 2002, when people began commissioning them, neither online, nor phone polls, have proved obviously superior to the other. But some firms, such as ICM, Yougov, Ipsos MORI, Opinium, have a good track record.
For non-GE results the online polls have had some good results. Last time I checked this was not a GE. Am I right?
It depends on the question TCPB.
If the question is, 'who was better at forecasting Tory/Lab in 2015?", then the answer is phones.
If the question is, 'who was better at forecasting Right/Left in 2015?", then the answer is internet.
The next question becomes, "Is the referendum a contest between Tory and Labour, or is it a contest between left and right?"
It has become a contest between Right and Left. If Remain wins, that's a victory for the Left. If Leave wins, that's a victory for the Right. 75% of Remain voters are left wing, and a similar proportion of Leave voters are right wing.
Cameron and Osborne have chosen to side with the Left against the Right.
On the other hand these same people would probably have observed Eurovision and the final TV vote and thought precisely as one poster said on here last night.
"they really do hate us"
It's these perceptions, even though it's only a singing competition but people relate to it (even on here last night) and more so than some bigwig they probably have never heard of. What Europe thinks of us was on show last night and in fact it's been a standing joke for years as the late Mr Wogan never tired of pointing out. Perception is everything and I would suggest that Eurovision probably has had more effect on the average person that any number of Carneys. Time will tell..
That was me! While I doubt too many votes will be won off the back of last night, it was rather unfortunate timing that Eurovision laid bare some quite big discrepancies between the juries and the popular vote.
Personally I thought we had a decent song, nothing special, but better than a lot of the other songs. I had a theory that the popular vote was more likely to be skewed by the running order than the jury vote. I think I heard them say that the juries made up their minds based on rehearsal performances. Anyway, here's how the last three songs scored with the viewers (jury vote in brackets):
Armenia - 134 (115) UK - 8 (54) Austria - 120 (31)
So we need a lot more data points that this - and perhaps someone will keep a track of this - but both Armenia and Austria outscored their jury vote. The UK entry didn't. Perhaps our people in Europe don't watch/vote, but it's interesting that we didn't get a final slot boost to our public vote.
A number of other countries did very poorly in the televote, that had done very well in the jury vote, notably Israel and Malta.
Since televoting came in, we have done rather poorly but we do keep putting in a half arsed effort.
If online polls were junk, people wouldn't bother to commission them. Since 2002, when people began commissioning them, neither online, nor phone polls, have proved obviously superior to the other. But some firms, such as ICM, Yougov, Ipsos MORI, Opinium, have a good track record.
For non-GE results the online polls have had some good results. Last time I checked this was not a GE. Am I right?
It depends on the question TCPB.
If the question is, 'who was better at forecasting Tory/Lab in 2015?", then the answer is phones.
If the question is, 'who was better at forecasting Right/Left in 2015?", then the answer is internet.
The next question becomes, "Is the referendum a contest between Tory and Labour, or is it a contest between left and right?"
It has become a contest between Right and Left. If Remain wins, that's a victory for the Left. If Leave wins, that's a victory for the Right. 75% of Remain voters are left wing, and a similar proportion of Leave voters are right wing.
Cameron and Osborne have chosen to side with the Left against the Right.
You are probably correct, right wing is always defined as standing up for patriotism which is national sovereignty. Therefore online should be regarded as more reliable for this type of election.
If online polls were junk, people wouldn't bother to commission them. Since 2002, when people began commissioning them, neither online, nor phone polls, have proved obviously superior to the other. But some firms, such as ICM, Yougov, Ipsos MORI, Opinium, have a good track record.
For non-GE results the online polls have had some good results. Last time I checked this was not a GE. Am I right?
It depends on the question TCPB.
If the question is, 'who was better at forecasting Tory/Lab in 2015?", then the answer is phones.
If the question is, 'who was better at forecasting Right/Left in 2015?", then the answer is internet.
The next question becomes, "Is the referendum a contest between Tory and Labour, or is it a contest between left and right?"
It has become a contest between Right and Left. If Remain wins, that's a victory for the Left. If Leave wins, that's a victory for the Right. 75% of Remain voters are left wing, and a similar proportion of Leave voters are right wing.
Cameron and Osborne have chosen to side with the Left against the Right.
Yes, while the public voted for a Conservative government last year, they no longer have one. Instead we have a Cameroon-Labour/Lib Dem coalition. Cameron is now Ramsay McDonald.
If online polls were junk, people wouldn't bother to commission them. Since 2002, when people began commissioning them, neither online, nor phone polls, have proved obviously superior to the other. But some firms, such as ICM, Yougov, Ipsos MORI, Opinium, have a good track record.
For non-GE results the online polls have had some good results. Last time I checked this was not a GE. Am I right?
It depends on the question TCPB.
If the question is, 'who was better at forecasting Tory/Lab in 2015?", then the answer is phones.
If the question is, 'who was better at forecasting Right/Left in 2015?", then the answer is internet.
The next question becomes, "Is the referendum a contest between Tory and Labour, or is it a contest between left and right?"
It has become a contest between Right and Left. If Remain wins, that's a victory for the Left. If Leave wins, that's a victory for the Right. 75% of Remain voters are left wing, and a similar proportion of Leave voters are right wing.
Cameron and Osborne have chosen to side with the Left against the Right.
You are probably correct, right wing is always defined as standing up for patriotism which is national soveriegnty.
The SNP would be rightwing on that definition and those backing Leave include George Galloway and Tommy Sheridan who are about as leftwing as you can get, while the leader of the Tories leads the Remain campaign
I believe that the above photo is of the actual model of a future Berlin made by Speer, Hitlers architect, sometime in WW2. The large Domed building was to house a future Reichstag.
So here is a question completed unrelated to all this Eurotwaddle.
Does it make me a bad man if I admit that I have a real liking for Speer's architecture. Or is that like those people who are supposed not to like Wagner.
You might as well say you loathe air travel, space rockets, calisthenics, vegetarianism, motorways and the VW Beetle, because they happened to be pioneered or popularised by the Nazis...
On the other hand these same people would probably have observed Eurovision and the final TV vote and thought precisely as one poster said on here last night.
"they really do hate us"
It's these perceptions, even though it's only a singing competition but people relate to it (even on here last night) and more so than some bigwig they probably have never heard of. What Europe thinks of us was on show last night and in fact it's been a standing joke for years as the late Mr Wogan never tired of pointing out. Perception is everything and I would suggest that Eurovision probably has had more effect on the average person that any number of Carneys. Time will tell..
That was me! While I doubt too many votes will be won off the back of last night, it was rather unfortunate timing that Eurovision laid bare some quite big discrepancies between the juries and the popular vote.
Personally I thought we had a decent song, nothing special, but better than a lot of the other songs. I had a theory that the popular vote was more likely to be skewed by the running order than the jury vote. I think I heard them say that the juries made up their minds based on rehearsal performances. Anyway, here's how the last three songs scored with the viewers (jury vote in brackets):
Armenia - 134 (115) UK - 8 (54) Austria - 120 (31)
So we need a lot more data points that this - and perhaps someone will keep a track of this - but both Armenia and Austria outscored their jury vote. The UK entry didn't. Perhaps our people in Europe don't watch/vote, but it's interesting that we didn't get a final slot boost to our public vote.
A number of other countries did very poorly in the televote, that had done very well in the jury vote, notably Israel and Malta.
Since televoting came in, we have done rather poorly but we do keep putting in a half arsed effort.
Places with no land border to a european country? Except us and Ireland and Iceland......
On the other hand these same people would probably have observed Eurovision and the final TV vote and thought precisely as one poster said on here last night.
"they really do hate us"
It's these perceptions, even though it's only a singing competition but people relate to it (even on here last night) and more so than some bigwig they probably have never heard of. What Europe thinks of us was on show last night and in fact it's been a standing joke for years as the late Mr Wogan never tired of pointing out. Perception is everything and I would suggest that Eurovision probably has had more effect on the average person that any number of Carneys. Time will tell..
That was me! While I doubt too many votes will be won off the back of last night, it was rather unfortunate timing that Eurovision laid bare some quite big discrepancies between the juries and the popular vote.
Personally I thought we had a decent song, nothing special, but better than a lot of the other songs. I had a theory that the popular vote was more likely to be skewed by the running order than the jury vote. I think I heard them say that the juries made up their minds based on rehearsal performances. Anyway, here's how the last three songs scored with the viewers (jury vote in brackets):
Armenia - 134 (115) UK - 8 (54) Austria - 120 (31)
So we need a lot more data points that this - and perhaps someone will keep a track of this - but both Armenia and Austria outscored their jury vote. The UK entry didn't. Perhaps our people in Europe don't watch/vote, but it's interesting that we didn't get a final slot boost to our public vote.
A number of other countries did very poorly in the televote, that had done very well in the jury vote, notably Israel and Malta.
Since televoting came in, we have done rather poorly but we do keep putting in a half arsed effort.
I think that's harsh on this year's entry. It was a lot better than at least 10 of the other entries.
The error is probably in a predictable direction: people who are too busy to waste time with online polls!
If so, it's easy to see why they voted Conservative last time. They probably had jobs and were doing quite well thank you very much. And probably they don't care much about standing up and being counted or making their voices heard, especially online where there is a conscious act of opting in rather than being rung up. Easy to see why these traits add to a Conservative tilt.
This time it's more of a guess that they are more likely to vote REMAIN based on the evident passion of LEAVE and the likely status-quo bias that would lead to REMAIN.
Which all kind of ignores the recognised problems with phone polling.
How do you contact people who will not answer their phones to a number they don't recognise, an 0800 number or a withheld number. And how are those people likely to vote?
Certainly this has become more of an issue as number ID has become more common on phones. In the past you had to actually answer the thing before you found out it was someone you didn't want to talk to. Now just about every phone sold has caller ID and large numbers of people simply won't bother answering if they think it is business or nuisance call.
That is just as likely to cause a bias in the phone polling as self selection in an online poll. At least with the latter the pollsters can make some efforts to correct for it. How does a phone pollster deal with people who just won't answer the phone to them?
Interesting that we were being told that last year's GE result should have been obvious in hindsight if only we looked at Cameron's and Miliband's personal ratings and yet so many people seem to want to ignore that lesson now when Cameron is trading at a deep discount to Boris on trust.
In my mind, Leave are going to win because of three factors:
(1) Remain has made the fatal mistake of making a vote for Remain seem like a vote for the Establishment. Getting the IMF etc etc only works if people believe the message is impartial; otherwise, people just think the doomsayers are protecting their own backs. ...
Good analysis but have to take issue with this. This is an advantage for REMAIN. When's the last time England voted against the establishment? You could see REMAIN's strategy as being to win over the timid and pro-status quo non-metropolitan English voter with a phalanx of worthies like Barack Obama and Mark Carney, while the fears of the (more courageous, anti-establishment) UK periphery about domination by England do the job elsewhere.
Probably, the 1945 election. Votes against the establishment are rare, but they happen.
It's an interesting one, right, 1945? Because these guys had to get into government running domestic policy during the War before they were trusted to do so afterward - and even then they were almost ejected the first chance the British people got. It was the provincial towns and the prosperous suburbs that did for Labour that time, too.
The 1923 and 1929 results were definitely a swing away from the government of the time, but the consequences were absolutely dire for the Labour Party and either signalled or solidified the instinctive conservatism of the English voter.
If I remember from my history, didn't the Tories try to smear that Labour Socialism was akin to National Socialism - and it blew up in their faces.
Something that REMAIN had better ponder before it is too late. OTT -ve campaigning is not necessarily to the advantage of those doing it.
On the other hand these same people would probably have observed Eurovision and the final TV vote and thought precisely as one poster said on here last night.
"they really do hate us"
It's these perceptions, even though it's only a singing competition but people relate to it (even on here last night) and more so than some bigwig they probably have never heard of. What Europe thinks of us was on show last night and in fact it's been a standing joke for years as the late Mr Wogan never tired of pointing out. Perception is everything and I would suggest that Eurovision probably has had more effect on the average person that any number of Carneys. Time will tell..
That was me! While I doubt too many votes will be won off the back of last night, it was rather unfortunate timing that Eurovision laid bare some quite big discrepancies between the juries and the popular vote.
Personally I thought we had a decent song, nothing special, but better than a lot of the other songs. I had a theory that the popular vote was more likely to be skewed by the running order than the jury vote. I think I heard them say that the juries made up their minds based on rehearsal performances. Anyway, here's how the last three songs scored with the viewers (jury vote in brackets):
Armenia - 134 (115) UK - 8 (54) Austria - 120 (31)
So we need a lot more data points that this - and perhaps someone will keep a track of this - but both Armenia and Austria outscored their jury vote. The UK entry didn't. Perhaps our people in Europe don't watch/vote, but it's interesting that we didn't get a final slot boost to our public vote.
A number of other countries did very poorly in the televote, that had done very well in the jury vote, notably Israel and Malta.
Since televoting came in, we have done rather poorly but we do keep putting in a half arsed effort.
I think that's harsh on this year's entry. It was a lot better than at least 10 of the other entries.
Blue got 100 points (old system) and 11th place in 2011.
Both Internet and phone polls have their problems. The former are well known on here. But the latter seem poorly described. I will try though hopefully others can explain better. Some people are cantankerous Victor Mrldrew types and others are kind even gullible. The former are less likely to be persuaded to take part in phone polls the latter are more likely. The former are likely to be leavers the latter remainers. And every day the evil PPI and accident claims cold callers are becoming more abusive and nasty, driving previously sane people such as this poster completely crazy, making it ever harder to do telephone polls.
If online polls were junk, people wouldn't bother to commission them. Since 2002, when people began commissioning them, neither online, nor phone polls, have proved obviously superior to the other. But some firms, such as ICM, Yougov, Ipsos MORI, Opinium, have a good track record.
For non-GE results the online polls have had some good results. Last time I checked this was not a GE. Am I right?
It depends on the question TCPB.
If the question is, 'who was better at forecasting Tory/Lab in 2015?", then the answer is phones.
If the question is, 'who was better at forecasting Right/Left in 2015?", then the answer is internet.
The next question becomes, "Is the referendum a contest between Tory and Labour, or is it a contest between left and right?"
It has become a contest between Right and Left. If Remain wins, that's a victory for the Left. If Leave wins, that's a victory for the Right. 75% of Remain voters are left wing, and a similar proportion of Leave voters are right wing.
Cameron and Osborne have chosen to side with the Left against the Right.
You are probably correct, right wing is always defined as standing up for patriotism which is national soveriegnty.
The SNP would be rightwing on that definition and those backing Leave include George Galloway and Tommy Sheridan who are about as leftwing as you can get, while the leader of the Tories leads the Remain campaign
Defending Austria-Hungary or the British Empire, in opposition to putative nation-states would be right wing.
But, supporting national self-government, in opposition to supra-national government, is a cause that is mostly supported by right wing voters, and opposed by left wing voters, in modern Europe.
The home office are idiots stating that EU citizens will be chucked out if we vote Brexit. I quote from migration watch.
"Those EU citizens already living and working in the UK would retain their existing rights. The same would apply to British citizens living and working in the EU. This arises from the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties, 1969. Generally speaking, withdrawing from a treaty releases the parties from any future obligation to each other, but does not affect any rights or obligations acquired under it before withdrawal."
Apparently we are to put them in wooden cages on the back of horse drawn carts and chuck rotten fruit and veg at them as they pass by on the way to Dover.
In the interests of inclusivity those unable to attend in person can watch on pay per view or on catchup.
If online polls were junk, people wouldn't bother to commission them. Since 2002, when people began commissioning them, neither online, nor phone polls, have proved obviously superior to the other. But some firms, such as ICM, Yougov, Ipsos MORI, Opinium, have a good track record.
For non-GE results the online polls have had some good results. Last time I checked this was not a GE. Am I right?
It depends on the question TCPB.
If the question is, 'who was better at forecasting Tory/Lab in 2015?", then the answer is phones.
If the question is, 'who was better at forecasting Right/Left in 2015?", then the answer is internet.
The next question becomes, "Is the referendum a contest between Tory and Labour, or is it a contest between left and right?"
It has become a contest between Right and Left. If Remain wins, that's a victory for the Left. If Leave wins, that's a victory for the Right. 75% of Remain voters are left wing, and a similar proportion of Leave voters are right wing.
Cameron and Osborne have chosen to side with the Left against the Right.
You are probably correct, right wing is always defined as standing up for patriotism which is national soveriegnty.
The SNP would be rightwing on that definition and those backing Leave include George Galloway and Tommy Sheridan who are about as leftwing as you can get, while the leader of the Tories leads the Remain campaign
Defending Austria-Hungary or the British Empire, in opposition to putative nation-states would be right wing.
But, supporting national self-government, in opposition to supra-national government, is a cause that is mostly supported by right wing voters, and opposed by left wing voters, in modern Europe.
That is too sweeping a statement, Merkel is centre right and at the heart of the EU project, it was Tory leader Ted Heath who first took us into the EU, in 1983 Labour leader Michael Foot wanted to take us out of the EU. It would be more correct to say that the centrist establishment backs supra-national government, while populists of the right and sometimes the left too are opposed
Can we declare one day a week a referendum free day? This is becoming interminable.
Hear Hear
Well yes... Better check the "Law on National Referendums, Initiation of Laws and European Citizens’ Initiative as amended" first just to make sure we are not in breach of European statutes.
The home office are idiots stating that EU citizens will be chucked out if we vote Brexit. I quote from migration watch.
"Those EU citizens already living and working in the UK would retain their existing rights. The same would apply to British citizens living and working in the EU. This arises from the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties, 1969. Generally speaking, withdrawing from a treaty releases the parties from any future obligation to each other, but does not affect any rights or obligations acquired under it before withdrawal."
I'm curious about what exactly would happen to the EU citizens already here. Would they be issued with some sort of residence permit? After all, they'd need some sort of documentation to get back into the UK after going on trips abroad. Who would qualify for such a permit - all EU citizens currently here? Can we expect a large influx of EU migrants to the UK beforehand, so as to qualify for a permit? What about seasonal workers?
If online polls were junk, people wouldn't bother to commission them. Since 2002, when people began commissioning them, neither online, nor phone polls, have proved obviously superior to the other. But some firms, such as ICM, Yougov, Ipsos MORI, Opinium, have a good track record.
For non-GE results the online polls have had some good results. Last time I checked this was not a GE. Am I right?
It depends on the question TCPB.
If the question is, 'who was better at forecasting Tory/Lab in 2015?", then the answer is phones.
If the question is, 'who was better at forecasting Right/Left in 2015?", then the answer is internet.
The next question becomes, "Is the referendum a contest between Tory and Labour, or is it a contest between left and right?"
It has become a contest between Right and Left. If Remain wins, that's a victory for the Left. If Leave wins, that's a victory for the Right. 75% of Remain voters are left wing, and a similar proportion of Leave voters are right wing.
Cameron and Osborne have chosen to side with the Left against the Right.
You are probably correct, right wing is always defined as standing up for patriotism which is national soveriegnty.
The SNP would be rightwing on that definition and those backing Leave include George Galloway and Tommy Sheridan who are about as leftwing as you can get, while the leader of the Tories leads the Remain campaign
Defending Austria-Hungary or the British Empire, in opposition to putative nation-states would be right wing.
But, supporting national self-government, in opposition to supra-national government, is a cause that is mostly supported by right wing voters, and opposed by left wing voters, in modern Europe.
That is too sweeping a statement, Merkel is centre right and at the heart of the EU project, it was Tory leader Ted Heath who first took us into the EU, in 1983 Labour leader Michael Foot wanted to take us out of the EU. It would be more correct to say that the centrist establishment backs supra-national government, while populists of the right and sometimes the left too are opposed
Heath took us into the EEC something entirely different to the EU monster now on our doorstep.
IMF boss Christine Lagarde's intervention will probably damage Remain even more than Barack Obama's did when he read his Number Ten script about "the back of the queue". The IMF is a bank. So is the Bank of England.
People may not verbalise the truth that the IMF is a bank, but I think they get the point when Lagarde says Brexit will damage "London's status as a global financial centre". And she says stuff about corruption. Talk about hubris! She herself is standing trial in France in the Bernard Tapie case. Maybe she, Philip Green and David Cameron could do a photocall. What a trustworthy trio.
Can't Remain do any better than this? How about they continue with the "bankers know what's best" theme and put the chief of one of the ratings agencies on Question Time in mid-June? Call him an economist or an expert or something.
If online polls were junk, people wouldn't bother to commission them. Since 2002, when people began commissioning them, neither online, nor phone polls, have proved obviously superior to the other. But some firms, such as ICM, Yougov, Ipsos MORI, Opinium, have a good track record.
For non-GE results the online polls have had some good results. Last time I checked this was not a GE. Am I right?
It depends on the question TCPB.
If the question is, 'who was better at forecasting Tory/Lab in 2015?", then the answer is phones.
If the question is, 'who was better at forecasting Right/Left in 2015?", then the answer is internet.
The next question becomes, "Is the referendum a contest between Tory and Labour, or is it a contest between left and right?"
It has become a contest between Right and Left. If Remain wins, that's a victory for the Left. If Leave wins, that's a victory for the Right. 75% of Remain voters are left wing, and a similar proportion of Leave voters are right wing.
Cameron and Osborne have chosen to side with the Left against the Right.
You are probably correct, right wing is always defined as standing up for patriotism which is national soveriegnty.
The SNP would be rightwing on that definition and those backing Leave include George Galloway and Tommy Sheridan who are about as leftwing as you can get, while the leader of the Tories leads the Remain campaign
Defending Austria-Hungary or the British Empire, in opposition to putative nation-states would be right wing.
But, supporting national self-government, in opposition to supra-national government, is a cause that is mostly supported by right wing voters, and opposed by left wing voters, in modern Europe.
That is too sweeping a statement, Merkel is centre right and at the heart of the EU project, it was Tory leader Ted Heath who first took us into the EU, in 1983 Labour leader Michael Foot wanted to take us out of the EU. It would be more correct to say that the centrist establishment backs supra-national government, while populists of the right and sometimes the left too are opposed
Heath took us into the EEC something entirely different to the EU monster now on our doorstep.
Heath knew full well what he was taking us into as did most of his Cabinet
Heath took us into the EEC something entirely different to the EU monster now on our doorstep.
"Peter Sissons: The single currency, a United States of Europe, was all that in your mind when you took Britain in?
Edward Heath: Of course, yes.
On BBC's Question Time on 1 November, 1990."
Damn him to hell. Damn them all.
If Remain argued for a federal Europe in public then at least they're arguing for what they really want. Instead we're treated to absolute tripe about "In Europe but not run by Europe".
If Remain argued for a federal Europe in public then at least they're arguing for what they really want. Instead we're treated to absolute tripe about "In Europe but not run by Europe".
The one point I would disagree with is that most of those advocating REMAIN do not want that. But they are fellow travellers on a journey with those who do want a federal Europe and they choose not to notice the ultimate destination.
"Heath knew full well what he was taking us into as did most of his Cabinet"
Possibly though I doubt even what we now have was ever fully envisaged.
My point was simply that it was the EEC something entirely different to what we now have after some 40 years of mission creep and not once asking the electorate.
If online polls were junk, people wouldn't bother to commission them. Since 2002, when people began commissioning them, neither online, nor phone polls, have proved obviously superior to the other. But some firms, such as ICM, Yougov, Ipsos MORI, Opinium, have a good track record.
For non-GE results the online polls have had some good results. Last time I checked this was not a GE. Am I right?
It depends on the question TCPB.
If the question is, 'who was better at forecasting Tory/Lab in 2015?", then the answer is phones.
If the question is, 'who was better at forecasting Right/Left in 2015?", then the answer is internet.
The next question becomes, "Is the referendum a contest between Tory and Labour, or is it a contest between left and right?"
It has become a contest between Right and Left. If Remain wins, that's a victory for the Left. If Leave wins, that's a victory for the Right. 75% of Remain voters are left wing, and a similar proportion of Leave voters are right wing.
Cameron and Osborne have chosen to side with the Left against the Right.
Yep - all those terrible lefties in the City, the IMF, the CBI, the military and the intelligence services; not to mention the Tory PM, Chancellor, Home Secretary and various others.
Heath took us into the EEC something entirely different to the EU monster now on our doorstep.
Heath knew full well what he was taking us into as did most of his Cabinet
'Possibly though I doubt even what we now have was ever fully envisaged.
My point was simply that it was the EEC something entirely different to what we now have after some 40 years of mission creep and not once asking the electorate. '
To be fair to them Enoch Powell and Tony Benn both warned the EEC threatened UK sovereignty all those years ago
If Remain argued for a federal Europe in public then at least they're arguing for what they really want. Instead we're treated to absolute tripe about "In Europe but not run by Europe".
The one point I would disagree with is that most of those advocating REMAIN do not want that. But they are fellow travellers on a journey with those who do want a federal Europe and they choose not to notice the ultimate destination.
Indeed. They have no idea how they are being used.
“Europe’s nations should be guided towards the superstate without their people understanding what is happening. This can be accomplished by successive steps, each disguised as having an economic purpose, but which will eventually and irreversibly lead to federation.” ― Jean Monnet
...Can't Remain do any better than this? How about they continue with the "bankers know what's best" theme and put the chief of one of the ratings agencies on Question Time in mid-June? Call him an economist or an expert or something.
Who else does Osborne know, or have a hand in their appointment? Head of IMF, Head of BoE, some fellow cabinet ministers such as Javid, Truss, Rudd... etc.
Heath took us into the EEC something entirely different to the EU monster now on our doorstep.
"Peter Sissons: The single currency, a United States of Europe, was all that in your mind when you took Britain in?
Edward Heath: Of course, yes.
On BBC's Question Time on 1 November, 1990."
Damn him to hell. Damn them all.
If Remain argued for a federal Europe in public then at least they're arguing for what they really want. Instead we're treated to absolute tripe about "In Europe but not run by Europe".
They have never been very frank about their aims. One thing that the Referendum has established is that Remain are very hostile towards the principle of immigration control.
Heath took us into the EEC something entirely different to the EU monster now on our doorstep.
"Peter Sissons: The single currency, a United States of Europe, was all that in your mind when you took Britain in?
Edward Heath: Of course, yes.
On BBC's Question Time on 1 November, 1990."
Damn him to hell. Damn them all.
If Remain argued for a federal Europe in public then at least they're arguing for what they really want. Instead we're treated to absolute tripe about "In Europe but not run by Europe".
Yes Heath new exactly what he was doing.
As Michael Ancram (Lord Lothian) says, the public have been lied to for forty years about this.
But in fact, the lies currently being told by the government are bigger than any Heath & Co. indulged in.
If Remain argued for a federal Europe in public then at least they're arguing for what they really want. Instead we're treated to absolute tripe about "In Europe but not run by Europe".
The one point I would disagree with is that most of those advocating REMAIN do not want that. But they are fellow travellers on a journey with those who do want a federal Europe and they choose not to notice the ultimate destination.
Indeed. They have no idea how they are being used.
“Europe’s nations should be guided towards the superstate without their people understanding what is happening. This can be accomplished by successive steps, each disguised as having an economic purpose, but which will eventually and irreversibly lead to federation.” ― Jean Monnet
When reading this, why do those advocating REMAIN on here pretend that they are not helping to move us into the federal superstate?
If Remain argued for a federal Europe in public then at least they're arguing for what they really want. Instead we're treated to absolute tripe about "In Europe but not run by Europe".
The one point I would disagree with is that most of those advocating REMAIN do not want that. But they are fellow travellers on a journey with those who do want a federal Europe and they choose not to notice the ultimate destination.
Except that is not correct, there are other nations in the EU who are outside the Eurozone, Sweden, Denmark, Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary, there may well be an inner core of the EU focused particularly on its founder members (not us) and those in the Euro (also not us) but we are not part of that inner core, never have been and never will be
I also see on the Telegraph website the following headline:
"Three million EU citizens in the UK could be deported if Britons vote for a 'Brexit', Home Office suggests"
This project fear nonsense has passed the point of absurdity. Does the Cameron clique really think anyone believes this sort of nonsense?
Why, exactly is it 'nonsense'?
They are here legally because of the freedom of movement of Labour - something LEAVE wants to end.
What happens after that?
We don't know, because it hasn't been negotiated yet
I expect we would want to 'grand father' those already here - but what about spouses & dependents?
LEAVE are the ones very exercised by immigration - have they got a policy they would like the government to pursue in the event of a LEAVE vote?
We also know from the NI data and ONS figures that many migrants are transient, coming for short periods for seasonal work. It is their legitimate concern that if they go back for the winter that they will not be readmitted.
I thought the argument from Cameron and Remain was that these were one-off migrants, and therefore shouldn't be counted as real migrants to worry about? Sounds like you want it both ways.
If online polls were junk, people wouldn't bother to commission them. Since 2002, when people began commissioning them, neither online, nor phone polls, have proved obviously superior to the other. But some firms, such as ICM, Yougov, Ipsos MORI, Opinium, have a good track record.
For non-GE results the online polls have had some good results. Last time I checked this was not a GE. Am I right?
It depends on the question TCPB.
If the question is, 'who was better at forecasting Tory/Lab in 2015?", then the answer is phones.
If the question is, 'who was better at forecasting Right/Left in 2015?", then the answer is internet.
The next question becomes, "Is the referendum a contest between Tory and Labour, or is it a contest between left and right?"
It has become a contest between Right and Left. If Remain wins, that's a victory for the Left. If Leave wins, that's a victory for the Right. 75% of Remain voters are left wing, and a similar proportion of Leave voters are right wing.
Cameron and Osborne have chosen to side with the Left against the Right.
Yep - all those terrible lefties in the City, the IMF, the CBI, the military and the intelligence services; not to mention the Tory PM, Chancellor, Home Secretary and various others.
The polling is clear. Right wingers who favour Remain are out on a limb.
If online polls were junk, people wouldn't bother to commission them. Since 2002, when people began commissioning them, neither online, nor phone polls, have proved obviously superior to the other. But some firms, such as ICM, Yougov, Ipsos MORI, Opinium, have a good track record.
For non-GE results the online polls have had some good results. Last time I checked this was not a GE. Am I right?
It depends on the question TCPB.
If the question is, 'who was better at forecasting Tory/Lab in 2015?", then the answer is phones.
If the question is, 'who was better at forecasting Right/Left in 2015?", then the answer is internet.
The next question becomes, "Is the referendum a contest between Tory and Labour, or is it a contest between left and right?"
It has become a contest between Right and Left. If Remain wins, that's a victory for the Left. If Leave wins, that's a victory for the Right. 75% of Remain voters are left wing, and a similar proportion of Leave voters are right wing.
Cameron and Osborne have chosen to side with the Left against the Right.
Yep - all those terrible lefties in the City, the IMF, the CBI, the military and the intelligence services; not to mention the Tory PM, Chancellor, Home Secretary and various others.
The polling is clear. Right wingers who favour Remain are out on a limb.
EPG - I get your point but, to paraphrase the old investment line, past performance is not a predictor of the future. It is clear from what is happening in politics across North America and Europe that a growing number of people are feeling as though they are being stitched up by the "Establishment". Trump never happened before but is happening now.
Agreed, past is not future. But we can consider the differences between England and the USA/Greece/France; most obviously, at the social level, the class system, and the absence of a republican or revolutionary heritage; a tradition instead of deference to authority; no history of radical politics in government. At the material level, there is more prosperity, less decline, less unemployment. More people who depend on trade and finance, less likely to fall for the vampire-squid tropes. At the level of electoral politics, the anti-establishment vote for Ukip keeps under-delivering on promise, essentially because a certain demographic keeps saying it will vote for Ukip but goes back to the Tories every time.
Since when was there more prosperity in the UK than the USA. Their GDP per capita is $53,042 compared to $41,787 for us. You are right that France and Greece are poorer, but we'd expect that, given they are EU members too.
Heath took us into the EEC something entirely different to the EU monster now on our doorstep.
Heath knew full well what he was taking us into as did most of his Cabinet
'Possibly though I doubt even what we now have was ever fully envisaged.
My point was simply that it was the EEC something entirely different to what we now have after some 40 years of mission creep and not once asking the electorate. '
To be fair to them Enoch Powell and Tony Benn both warned the EEC threatened UK sovereignty all those years ago
Yes - a good example of why it's unwise to by led by 'consensus views'.
Consensus used to believe the world was flat as well.
If online polls were junk, people wouldn't bother to commission them. Since 2002, when people began commissioning them, neither online, nor phone polls, have proved obviously superior to the other. But some firms, such as ICM, Yougov, Ipsos MORI, Opinium, have a good track record.
For non-GE results the online polls have had some good results. Last time I checked this was not a GE. Am I right?
It depends on the question TCPB.
If the question is, 'who was better at forecasting Tory/Lab in 2015?", then the answer is phones.
If the question is, 'who was better at forecasting Right/Left in 2015?", then the answer is internet.
The next question becomes, "Is the referendum a contest between Tory and Labour, or is it a contest between left and right?"
It has become a contest between Right and Left. If Remain wins, that's a victory for the Left. If Leave wins, that's a victory for the Right. 75% of Remain voters are left wing, and a similar proportion of Leave voters are right wing.
Cameron and Osborne have chosen to side with the Left against the Right.
Yep - all those terrible lefties in the City, the IMF, the CBI, the military and the intelligence services; not to mention the Tory PM, Chancellor, Home Secretary and various others.
The CBI has had several leftie heads. Turner was even at one point in the SDP, others advocated voting Labour....
If Remain argued for a federal Europe in public then at least they're arguing for what they really want. Instead we're treated to absolute tripe about "In Europe but not run by Europe".
The one point I would disagree with is that most of those advocating REMAIN do not want that. But they are fellow travellers on a journey with those who do want a federal Europe and they choose not to notice the ultimate destination.
Indeed. They have no idea how they are being used.
“Europe’s nations should be guided towards the superstate without their people understanding what is happening. This can be accomplished by successive steps, each disguised as having an economic purpose, but which will eventually and irreversibly lead to federation.” ― Jean Monnet
When reading this, why do those advocating REMAIN on here pretend that they are not helping to move us into the federal superstate?
Regardless of which direction you think the other side is leading the country, nobody is arguing that Britain will at any point lose the option to leave. If you have confidence that the British people don't want to go to the destination you predict then you have nothing to fear, since should the time come they will elect a government on a manifesto committed to leaving.
How many times has that all been promised / assured already!When remain win this will be chip paper and all forgotten. ..... Again. The ends justifies the means n'all
If online polls were junk, people wouldn't bother to commission them. Since 2002, when people began commissioning them, neither online, nor phone polls, have proved obviously superior to the other. But some firms, such as ICM, Yougov, Ipsos MORI, Opinium, have a good track record.
For non-GE results the online polls have had some good results. Last time I checked this was not a GE. Am I right?
It depends on the question TCPB.
If the question is, 'who was better at forecasting Tory/Lab in 2015?", then the answer is phones.
If the question is, 'who was better at forecasting Right/Left in 2015?", then the answer is internet.
The next question becomes, "Is the referendum a contest between Tory and Labour, or is it a contest between left and right?"
It has become a contest between Right and Left. If Remain wins, that's a victory for the Left. If Leave wins, that's a victory for the Right. 75% of Remain voters are left wing, and a similar proportion of Leave voters are right wing.
Cameron and Osborne have chosen to side with the Left against the Right.
Yep - all those terrible lefties in the City, the IMF, the CBI, the military and the intelligence services; not to mention the Tory PM, Chancellor, Home Secretary and various others.
The CBI were in favour of central planning and opposed the Thatcher reforms. Of course they are lefties.
The home office are idiots stating that EU citizens will be chucked out if we vote Brexit. I quote from migration watch.
"Those EU citizens already living and working in the UK would retain their existing rights. The same would apply to British citizens living and working in the EU. This arises from the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties, 1969. Generally speaking, withdrawing from a treaty releases the parties from any future obligation to each other, but does not affect any rights or obligations acquired under it before withdrawal."
I'm curious about what exactly would happen to the EU citizens already here. Would they be issued with some sort of residence permit? After all, they'd need some sort of documentation to get back into the UK after going on trips abroad. Who would qualify for such a permit - all EU citizens currently here? Can we expect a large influx of EU migrants to the UK beforehand, so as to qualify for a permit? What about seasonal workers?
1. Unless the treaty otherwise provides or the parties otherwise agree, the termination of a treaty under its provisions or in accordance with the present Convention:
(a) releases the parties from any obligation further to perform the treaty;
(b) does not affect any right, obligation or legal situation of the parties created through the execution of the treaty prior to its termination.
I've emphasised the key words. The parties are the member states, not individual EU citizens, to whose rights article 70 is irrelevant.
Disclosure: my ex-wife is a citizen of a non-EU EEA member state, and has the right of residence here. I hope she gets kicked out.
If Remain argued for a federal Europe in public then at least they're arguing for what they really want. Instead we're treated to absolute tripe about "In Europe but not run by Europe".
The one point I would disagree with is that most of those advocating REMAIN do not want that. But they are fellow travellers on a journey with those who do want a federal Europe and they choose not to notice the ultimate destination.
Except that is not correct, there are other nations in the EU who are outside the Eurozone, Sweden, Denmark, Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary, there may well be an inner core of the EU focused particularly on its founder members (not us) and those in the Euro (also not us) but we are not part of that inner core, never have been and never will be
The REMAIN people comprise those who think that there can be a different track and those working to the ultimate goal of one superstate. You seem not to understand who your fellow travellers are and what their goal is.
If online polls were junk, people wouldn't bother to commission them. Since 2002, when people began commissioning them, neither online, nor phone polls, have proved obviously superior to the other. But some firms, such as ICM, Yougov, Ipsos MORI, Opinium, have a good track record.
For non-GE results the online polls have had some good results. Last time I checked this was not a GE. Am I right?
It depends on the question TCPB.
If the question is, 'who was better at forecasting Tory/Lab in 2015?", then the answer is phones.
If the question is, 'who was better at forecasting Right/Left in 2015?", then the answer is internet.
The next question becomes, "Is the referendum a contest between Tory and Labour, or is it a contest between left and right?"
It has become a contest between Right and Left. If Remain wins, that's a victory for the Left. If Leave wins, that's a victory for the Right. 75% of Remain voters are left wing, and a similar proportion of Leave voters are right wing.
Cameron and Osborne have chosen to side with the Left against the Right.
Yes, while the public voted for a Conservative government last year, they no longer have one. Instead we have a Cameroon-Labour/Lib Dem coalition. Cameron is now Ramsay McDonald.
Which some of us said at the time and have been saying for years.
EPG - I get your point but, to paraphrase the old investment line, past performance is not a predictor of the future. It is clear from what is happening in politics across North America and Europe that a growing number of people are feeling as though they are being stitched up by the "Establishment". Trump never happened before but is happening now.
Agreed, past is not future. But we can consider the differences between England and the USA/Greece/France; most obviously, at the social level, the class system, and the absence of a republican or revolutionary heritage; a tradition instead of deference to authority; no history of radical politics in government. At the material level, there is more prosperity, less decline, less unemployment. More people who depend on trade and finance, less likely to fall for the vampire-squid tropes. At the level of electoral politics, the anti-establishment vote for Ukip keeps under-delivering on promise, essentially because a certain demographic keeps saying it will vote for Ukip but goes back to the Tories every time.
Since when was there more prosperity in the UK than the USA. Their GDP per capita is $53,042 compared to $41,787 for us. You are right that France and Greece are poorer, but we'd expect that, given they are EU members too.
Luxembourg is at the heart of the EU and richer than the UK and USA (mind you so are Norway and Switzerland who are outside)
Heath took us into the EEC something entirely different to the EU monster now on our doorstep.
Heath knew full well what he was taking us into as did most of his Cabinet
'Possibly though I doubt even what we now have was ever fully envisaged.
My point was simply that it was the EEC something entirely different to what we now have after some 40 years of mission creep and not once asking the electorate. '
To be fair to them Enoch Powell and Tony Benn both warned the EEC threatened UK sovereignty all those years ago
Yes - a good example of why it's unwise to by led by 'consensus views'.
Consensus used to believe the world was flat as well.
If online polls were junk, people wouldn't bother to commission them. Since 2002, when people began commissioning them, neither online, nor phone polls, have proved obviously superior to the other. But some firms, such as ICM, Yougov, Ipsos MORI, Opinium, have a good track record.
For non-GE results the online polls have had some good results. Last time I checked this was not a GE. Am I right?
It depends on the question TCPB.
If the question is, 'who was better at forecasting Tory/Lab in 2015?", then the answer is phones.
If the question is, 'who was better at forecasting Right/Left in 2015?", then the answer is internet.
The next question becomes, "Is the referendum a contest between Tory and Labour, or is it a contest between left and right?"
It has become a contest between Right and Left. If Remain wins, that's a victory for the Left. If Leave wins, that's a victory for the Right. 75% of Remain voters are left wing, and a similar proportion of Leave voters are right wing.
Cameron and Osborne have chosen to side with the Left against the Right.
Yep - all those terrible lefties in the City, the IMF, the CBI, the military and the intelligence services; not to mention the Tory PM, Chancellor, Home Secretary and various others.
The CBI were in favour of central planning and opposed the Thatcher reforms. Of course they are lefties.
Powell called them 'the people who have always been wrong about everything'. It was true 40 years ago and is even truer today.
If online polls were junk, people wouldn't bother to commission them. Since 2002, when people began commissioning them, neither online, nor phone polls, have proved obviously superior to the other. But some firms, such as ICM, Yougov, Ipsos MORI, Opinium, have a good track record.
For non-GE results the online polls have had some good results. Last time I checked this was not a GE. Am I right?
It depends on the question TCPB.
If the question is, 'who was better at forecasting Tory/Lab in 2015?", then the answer is phones.
If the question is, 'who was better at forecasting Right/Left in 2015?", then the answer is internet.
The next question becomes, "Is the referendum a contest between Tory and Labour, or is it a contest between left and right?"
It has become a contest between Right and Left. If Remain wins, that's a victory for the Left. If Leave wins, that's a victory for the Right. 75% of Remain voters are left wing, and a similar proportion of Leave voters are right wing.
Cameron and Osborne have chosen to side with the Left against the Right.
Yep - all those terrible lefties in the City, the IMF, the CBI, the military and the intelligence services; not to mention the Tory PM, Chancellor, Home Secretary and various others.
The CBI has had several leftie heads. Turner was even at one point in the SDP, others advocated voting Labour....
The SDP and New Labour do not really count as left, social democrat at best, the centre right and centre left back Remain the populist right and left back Leave, that is the real difference
If Remain argued for a federal Europe in public then at least they're arguing for what they really want. Instead we're treated to absolute tripe about "In Europe but not run by Europe".
The one point I would disagree with is that most of those advocating REMAIN do not want that. But they are fellow travellers on a journey with those who do want a federal Europe and they choose not to notice the ultimate destination.
Except that is not correct, there are other nations in the EU who are outside the Eurozone, Sweden, Denmark, Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary, there may well be an inner core of the EU focused particularly on its founder members (not us) and those in the Euro (also not us) but we are not part of that inner core, never have been and never will be
So you are advocating that Sweden, Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary should all break their treaty commitment to join the Single Currency?
But anyway that is not the point. The point is that the current arrangement of Eurozone and non-Eurozone countries cannot continue. The need for a political union means that unless we are going to have a two complete sets of EU institutions, which is utterly impractical, at some point soon there is going to have to be a reckoning with the non Eurozone countries forced to accept effective rule by the Eurozone countries.
I've been thinking of your comparison of Cameron to Heath.
It strikes me that the PB Tories who support Remain would have been Heath loyalists of 1975 while the PB Tories who support Leave would have supported Thatcher in 1975.
The reporting of both David Cameron's WW3 comment (which he didn't say) and this weekend's Boris and Hitler narrative says more about the uselessness of all the media in providing balance on both sides and is turning this referendum into something very unpleasant. The way this is going no one will be listening to any debates as the hysteria is a complete turn off. I still think there will be a high turnout but I cannot see anything but a descent into immigrants here being sent home or too many immigrants coming in leading to accusations and counter accusations of 'rascism' . 24th June cannot come quick enough
If online polls were junk, people wouldn't bother to commission them. Since 2002, when people began commissioning them, neither online, nor phone polls, have proved obviously superior to the other. But some firms, such as ICM, Yougov, Ipsos MORI, Opinium, have a good track record.
For non-GE results the online polls have had some good results. Last time I checked this was not a GE. Am I right?
It depends on the question TCPB.
If the question is, 'who was better at forecasting Tory/Lab in 2015?", then the answer is phones.
If the question is, 'who was better at forecasting Right/Left in 2015?", then the answer is internet.
The next question becomes, "Is the referendum a contest between Tory and Labour, or is it a contest between left and right?"
It has become a contest between Right and Left. If Remain wins, that's a victory for the Left. If Leave wins, that's a victory for the Right. 75% of Remain voters are left wing, and a similar proportion of Leave voters are right wing.
Cameron and Osborne have chosen to side with the Left against the Right.
Yep - all those terrible lefties in the City, the IMF, the CBI, the military and the intelligence services; not to mention the Tory PM, Chancellor, Home Secretary and various others.
The CBI were in favour of central planning and opposed the Thatcher reforms. Of course they are lefties.
If you seriously believe that you have a very distorted view of the world.
If Remain argued for a federal Europe in public then at least they're arguing for what they really want. Instead we're treated to absolute tripe about "In Europe but not run by Europe".
The one point I would disagree with is that most of those advocating REMAIN do not want that. But they are fellow travellers on a journey with those who do want a federal Europe and they choose not to notice the ultimate destination.
Except that is not correct, there are other nations in the EU who are outside the Eurozone, Sweden, Denmark, Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary, there may well be an inner core of the EU focused particularly on its founder members (not us) and those in the Euro (also not us) but we are not part of that inner core, never have been and never will be
The REMAIN people comprise those who think that there can be a different track and those working to the ultimate goal of one superstate. You seem not to understand who your fellow travellers are and what their goal is.
There are of course a few Federalists in Remain but they would never get that vision past the British electorate, indeed the EU elite is already facing something of a populist backlash on the continent itself!
If Remain argued for a federal Europe in public then at least they're arguing for what they really want. Instead we're treated to absolute tripe about "In Europe but not run by Europe".
The one point I would disagree with is that most of those advocating REMAIN do not want that. But they are fellow travellers on a journey with those who do want a federal Europe and they choose not to notice the ultimate destination.
Indeed. They have no idea how they are being used.
“Europe’s nations should be guided towards the superstate without their people understanding what is happening. This can be accomplished by successive steps, each disguised as having an economic purpose, but which will eventually and irreversibly lead to federation.” ― Jean Monnet
Sorry Viceroy but no matter how much it might help the Leave cause I have to point out that this quote is a total fabrication. I have been over this before. Monnet simply never said this. Nor would it be in keeping with the hundreds of other quotes from him where he was absolutely open and clear about the objective of a single European State.
Monnet was a visionary man. It is not a vision I share but he was never deceitful or dishonest about what he wanted for Europe.
I see in the Times that Osborne is making a speech about "the economic cost of leaving".
Now why would REMAIN think that a person with the image of something unpleasant that one has trod in, is a good idea? Anything to do with the fact that the person deciding these things is Mr G. Osborne?
Stupid is as stupid does. Does Will Straw Exec Director of BSE actually take any decisions and what about his Chairman Lord Rose?
Both Internet and phone polls have their problems. The former are well known on here. But the latter seem poorly described. I will try though hopefully others can explain better. Some people are cantankerous Victor Mrldrew types and others are kind even gullible. The former are less likely to be persuaded to take part in phone polls the latter are more likely. The former are likely to be leavers the latter remainers. And every day the evil PPI and accident claims cold callers are becoming more abusive and nasty, driving previously sane people such as this poster completely crazy, making it ever harder to do telephone polls.
One problem of both kinds is that they're so bloody long. The pollsters can't resist making money form several customers, so you don't just give demographic data and voting intention, you have a dozen other questions to answer too. I've been phone-polled twice, both in the middle of the working day, ands in both cases I had to apologise and hasng up as there was a meeitng coming up. Do the companies count partial answers if you didn't finish the survey?
If Remain argued for a federal Europe in public then at least they're arguing for what they really want. Instead we're treated to absolute tripe about "In Europe but not run by Europe".
The one point I would disagree with is that most of those advocating REMAIN do not want that. But they are fellow travellers on a journey with those who do want a federal Europe and they choose not to notice the ultimate destination.
Except that is not correct, there are other nations in the EU who are outside the Eurozone, Sweden, Denmark, Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary, there may well be an inner core of the EU focused particularly on its founder members (not us) and those in the Euro (also not us) but we are not part of that inner core, never have been and never will be
So you are advocating that Sweden, Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary should all break their treaty commitment to join the Single Currency?
But anyway that is not the point. The point is that the current arrangement of Eurozone and non-Eurozone countries cannot continue. The need for a political union means that unless we are going to have a two complete sets of EU institutions, which is utterly impractical, at some point soon there is going to have to be a reckoning with the non Eurozone countries forced to accept effective rule by the Eurozone countries.
Denmark has no such treaty commitment, Sweden has voted against the Euro comfortably in any referenda on the subject and Poland and Hungary are led by leaders more like Farage than Cameron at the moment.
I think ultimately there will have to be a clear division between the Eurozone and non Eurozone, even Juncker has accepted there may be an EU 'outer core' which is not in the Euro and the Federalist core
If online polls were junk, people wouldn't bother to commission them. Since 2002, when people began commissioning them, neither online, nor phone polls, have proved obviously superior to the other. But some firms, such as ICM, Yougov, Ipsos MORI, Opinium, have a good track record.
For non-GE results the online polls have had some good results. Last time I checked this was not a GE. Am I right?
It depends on the question TCPB.
If the question is, 'who was better at forecasting Tory/Lab in 2015?", then the answer is phones.
If the question is, 'who was better at forecasting Right/Left in 2015?", then the answer is internet.
The next question becomes, "Is the referendum a contest between Tory and Labour, or is it a contest between left and right?"
It has become a contest between Right and Left. If Remain wins, that's a victory for the Left. If Leave wins, that's a victory for the Right. 75% of Remain voters are left wing, and a similar proportion of Leave voters are right wing.
Cameron and Osborne have chosen to side with the Left against the Right.
Yep - all those terrible lefties in the City, the IMF, the CBI, the military and the intelligence services; not to mention the Tory PM, Chancellor, Home Secretary and various others.
The CBI were in favour of central planning and opposed the Thatcher reforms. Of course they are lefties.
If you seriously believe that you have a very distorted view of the world.
I've been thinking of your comparison of Cameron to Heath.
It strikes me that the PB Tories who support Remain would have been Heath loyalists of 1975 while the PB Tories who support Leave would have supported Thatcher in 1975.
Any views ?
Yes I would tend to agree with that.
Today's Remainers would have been for appeasement in the 1930s and Halifax (and peace with Germany) in 1940 as well I suspect.
I see in the Times that Osborne is making a speech about "the economic cost of leaving".
Now why would REMAIN think that a person with the image of something unpleasant that one has trod in, is a good idea? Anything to do with the fact that the person deciding these things is Mr G. Osborne?
Stupid is as stupid does. Does Will Straw Exec Director of BSE actually take any decisions and what about his Chairman Lord Rose?
If online polls were junk, people wouldn't bother to commission them. Since 2002, when people began commissioning them, neither online, nor phone polls, have proved obviously superior to the other. But some firms, such as ICM, Yougov, Ipsos MORI, Opinium, have a good track record.
For non-GE results the online polls have had some good results. Last time I checked this was not a GE. Am I right?
It depends on the question TCPB.
If the question is, 'who was better at forecasting Tory/Lab in 2015?", then the answer is phones.
If the question is, 'who was better at forecasting Right/Left in 2015?", then the answer is internet.
The next question becomes, "Is the referendum a contest between Tory and Labour, or is it a contest between left and right?"
It has become a contest between Right and Left. If Remain wins, that's a victory for the Left. If Leave wins, that's a victory for the Right. 75% of Remain voters are left wing, and a similar proportion of Leave voters are right wing.
Cameron and Osborne have chosen to side with the Left against the Right.
Yep - all those terrible lefties in the City, the IMF, the CBI, the military and the intelligence services; not to mention the Tory PM, Chancellor, Home Secretary and various others.
The CBI were in favour of central planning and opposed the Thatcher reforms. Of course they are lefties.
If you seriously believe that you have a very distorted view of the world.
The reporting of both David Cameron's WW3 comment (which he didn't say) and this weekend's Boris and Hitler narrative says more about the uselessness of all the media in providing balance on both sides and is turning this referendum into something very unpleasant. The way this is going no one will be listening to any debates as the hysteria is a complete turn off. I still think there will be a high turnout but I cannot see anything but a descent into immigrants here being sent home or too many immigrants coming in leading to accusations and counter accusations of 'rascism' . 24th June cannot come quick enough
Um no. It is clear to everyone who looks at this objectively that there is no way on earth the WW3 comment did not come from a briefing from Cameron's circle.
There is absolutely no way that the Telegraph, Mail, Times and Guardian along with Sky and the BBC would all suddenly decide at the same time late one evening to make up something as explosive as that.
The source of the proposed speech was clearly Cameron or his inner circle and it was only when they saw the adverse reaction that they changed it at the last minute.
To blame the papers for reporting something they had been briefed on really is shooting the messenger.
The reporting of both David Cameron's WW3 comment (which he didn't say) ....
Many papers ran with that line at the same time. They would have been briefed by someone representing number 10 - possibly several people - to get across the same message in a limited period an hour or two before the papers deadlines. That Mr G is how it works, may be you have never been involved in this sort of work, a few of us on here such as Plato have. It was not one loose brief from one person to one paper or one paper reading excerpts from a speech and inventing a WW3 headline. Most if not all were given it - we know that because it was the same.
I also see on the Telegraph website the following headline:
"Three million EU citizens in the UK could be deported if Britons vote for a 'Brexit', Home Office suggests"
This project fear nonsense has passed the point of absurdity. Does the Cameron clique really think anyone believes this sort of nonsense?
Why, exactly is it 'nonsense'?
They are here legally because of the freedom of movement of Labour - something LEAVE wants to end.
What happens after that?
We don't know, because it hasn't been negotiated yet
I expect we would want to 'grand father' those already here - but what about spouses & dependents?
LEAVE are the ones very exercised by immigration - have they got a policy they would like the government to pursue in the event of a LEAVE vote?
We also know from the NI data and ONS figures that many migrants are transient, coming for short periods for seasonal work. It is their legitimate concern that if they go back for the winter that they will not be readmitted.
I thought the argument from Cameron and Remain was that these were one-off migrants, and therefore shouldn't be counted as real migrants to worry about? Sounds like you want it both ways.
No. Just pointing out that the status of such short term migrants is unclear. They may choose not to re enter, or may choose to over winter here and establish permenant residence. They are right to be uncertain as to what the future holds.
If Remain argued for a federal Europe in public then at least they're arguing for what they really want. Instead we're treated to absolute tripe about "In Europe but not run by Europe".
The one point I would disagree with is that most of those advocating REMAIN do not want that. But they are fellow travellers on a journey with those who do want a federal Europe and they choose not to notice the ultimate destination.
Except that is not correct, there are other nations in the EU who are outside the Eurozone, Sweden, Denmark, Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary, there may well be an inner core of the EU focused particularly on its founder members (not us) and those in the Euro (also not us) but we are not part of that inner core, never have been and never will be
So you are advocating that Sweden, Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary should all break their treaty commitment to join the Single Currency?
But anyway that is not the point. The point is that the current arrangement of Eurozone and non-Eurozone countries cannot continue. The need for a political union means that unless we are going to have a two complete sets of EU institutions, which is utterly impractical, at some point soon there is going to have to be a reckoning with the non Eurozone countries forced to accept effective rule by the Eurozone countries.
Denmark has no such treaty commitment, Sweden has voted against the Euro comfortably in any referenda on the subject and Poland and Hungary are led by leaders more like Farage than Cameron at the moment.
I think ultimately there will have to be a clear division between the Eurozone and non Eurozone, even Juncker has accepted there may be an EU 'outer core' which is not in the Euro and the Federalist core
Please don't misquote me. I didn't mention Denmark because they and the UK have opt outs.
And it doesn't matter what the rest want if you believe treaties should be abided by. They have signed up for the single currency and the only way they can avoid it long term is by breaking their treaty commitments. Effectively rejecting the TFEU.
I've been thinking of your comparison of Cameron to Heath.
It strikes me that the PB Tories who support Remain would have been Heath loyalists of 1975 while the PB Tories who support Leave would have supported Thatcher in 1975.
The reporting of both David Cameron's WW3 comment (which he didn't say) and this weekend's Boris and Hitler narrative says more about the uselessness of all the media in providing balance on both sides and is turning this referendum into something very unpleasant. The way this is going no one will be listening to any debates as the hysteria is a complete turn off. I still think there will be a high turnout but I cannot see anything but a descent into immigrants here being sent home or too many immigrants coming in leading to accusations and counter accusations of 'rascism' . 24th June cannot come quick enough
Um no. It is clear to everyone who looks at this objectively that there is no way on earth the WW3 comment did not come from a briefing from Cameron's circle.
There is absolutely no way that the Telegraph, Mail, Times and Guardian along with Sky and the BBC would all suddenly decide at the same time late one evening to make up something as explosive as that.
The source of the proposed speech was clearly Cameron or his inner circle and it was only when they saw the adverse reaction that they changed it at the last minute.
To blame the papers for reporting something they had been briefed on really is shooting the messenger.
I listened to his speech and he did not say anything like the briefings but on my wider point Boris's referring to Hitler has also been twisted but it is now tied into him for the rest of the campaign and beyond. It only takes one journalist to spread a story and all the rest with follow
The reporting of both David Cameron's WW3 comment (which he didn't say) and this weekend's Boris and Hitler narrative says more about the uselessness of all the media in providing balance on both sides and is turning this referendum into something very unpleasant. The way this is going no one will be listening to any debates as the hysteria is a complete turn off. I still think there will be a high turnout but I cannot see anything but a descent into immigrants here being sent home or too many immigrants coming in leading to accusations and counter accusations of 'rascism' . 24th June cannot come quick enough
Um no. It is clear to everyone who looks at this objectively that there is no way on earth the WW3 comment did not come from a briefing from Cameron's circle.
There is absolutely no way that the Telegraph, Mail, Times and Guardian along with Sky and the BBC would all suddenly decide at the same time late one evening to make up something as explosive as that.
The source of the proposed speech was clearly Cameron or his inner circle and it was only when they saw the adverse reaction that they changed it at the last minute.
To blame the papers for reporting something they had been briefed on really is shooting the messenger.
I listened to his speech and he did not say anything like the briefings but on my wider point Boris's referring to Hitler has also been twisted but it is now tied into him for the rest of the campaign and beyond.
That's because he changed his speech in response to the adverse reaction.
Both Internet and phone polls have their problems. The former are well known on here. But the latter seem poorly described. I will try though hopefully others can explain better. Some people are cantankerous Victor Mrldrew types and others are kind even gullible. The former are less likely to be persuaded to take part in phone polls the latter are more likely. The former are likely to be leavers the latter remainers. And every day the evil PPI and accident claims cold callers are becoming more abusive and nasty, driving previously sane people such as this poster completely crazy, making it ever harder to do telephone polls.
One problem of both kinds is that they're so bloody long. The pollsters can't resist making money form several customers, so you don't just give demographic data and voting intention, you have a dozen other questions to answer too. I've been phone-polled twice, both in the middle of the working day, ands in both cases I had to apologise and hasng up as there was a meeitng coming up. Do the companies count partial answers if you didn't finish the survey?
I think Tescos should do more polls, for Clubcard points (paid for by whomever commissions the poll). The demographic and social information they bring to bear would make for great polls.
Comments
If the question is, 'who was better at forecasting Tory/Lab in 2015?", then the answer is phones.
If the question is, 'who was better at forecasting Right/Left in 2015?", then the answer is internet.
The next question becomes, "Is the referendum a contest between Tory and Labour, or is it a contest between left and right?"
The 1923 and 1929 results were definitely a swing away from the government of the time, but the consequences were absolutely dire for the Labour Party and either signalled or solidified the instinctive conservatism of the English voter.
Personally I thought we had a decent song, nothing special, but better than a lot of the other songs. I had a theory that the popular vote was more likely to be skewed by the running order than the jury vote. I think I heard them say that the juries made up their minds based on rehearsal performances. Anyway, here's how the last three songs scored with the viewers (jury vote in brackets):
Armenia - 134 (115)
UK - 8 (54)
Austria - 120 (31)
So we need a lot more data points that this - and perhaps someone will keep a track of this - but both Armenia and Austria outscored their jury vote. The UK entry didn't. Perhaps our people in Europe don't watch/vote, but it's interesting that we didn't get a final slot boost to our public vote.
"Those EU citizens already living and working in the UK would retain their existing rights. The same would apply to British citizens living and working in the EU. This arises from the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties, 1969. Generally speaking, withdrawing from a treaty releases the parties from any future obligation to each other, but does not affect any rights or obligations acquired under it before withdrawal."
(smile)
Cameron and Osborne have chosen to side with the Left against the Right.
https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/731940245982318592
Since televoting came in, we have done rather poorly but we do keep putting in a half arsed effort.
How do you contact people who will not answer their phones to a number they don't recognise, an 0800 number or a withheld number. And how are those people likely to vote?
Certainly this has become more of an issue as number ID has become more common on phones. In the past you had to actually answer the thing before you found out it was someone you didn't want to talk to. Now just about every phone sold has caller ID and large numbers of people simply won't bother answering if they think it is business or nuisance call.
That is just as likely to cause a bias in the phone polling as self selection in an online poll. At least with the latter the pollsters can make some efforts to correct for it. How does a phone pollster deal with people who just won't answer the phone to them?
Something that REMAIN had better ponder before it is too late. OTT -ve campaigning is not necessarily to the advantage of those doing it.
But, supporting national self-government, in opposition to supra-national government, is a cause that is mostly supported by right wing voters, and opposed by left wing voters, in modern Europe.
In the interests of inclusivity those unable to attend in person can watch on pay per view or on catchup.
Shite day.
Time to revisit circa 6am GE May 2015
Hear
Better check the "Law on National Referendums, Initiation of Laws and European Citizens’ Initiative as amended" first just to make sure we are not in breach of European statutes.
People may not verbalise the truth that the IMF is a bank, but I think they get the point when Lagarde says Brexit will damage "London's status as a global financial centre". And she says stuff about corruption. Talk about hubris! She herself is standing trial in France in the Bernard Tapie case. Maybe she, Philip Green and David Cameron could do a photocall. What a trustworthy trio.
Can't Remain do any better than this? How about they continue with the "bankers know what's best" theme and put the chief of one of the ratings agencies on Question Time in mid-June? Call him an economist or an expert or something.
Edward Heath: Of course, yes.
On BBC's Question Time on 1 November, 1990."
Damn him to hell. Damn them all.
If Remain argued for a federal Europe in public then at least they're arguing for what they really want. Instead we're treated to absolute tripe about "In Europe but not run by Europe".
"Heath knew full well what he was taking us into as did most of his Cabinet"
Possibly though I doubt even what we now have was ever fully envisaged.
My point was simply that it was the EEC something entirely different to what we now have after some 40 years of mission creep and not once asking the electorate.
https://twitter.com/patel4witham/status/731399073673162752
Heath knew full well what he was taking us into as did most of his Cabinet
'Possibly though I doubt even what we now have was ever fully envisaged.
My point was simply that it was the EEC something entirely different to what we now have after some 40 years of mission creep and not once asking the electorate. '
To be fair to them Enoch Powell and Tony Benn both warned the EEC threatened UK sovereignty all those years ago
“Europe’s nations should be guided towards the superstate without their people understanding what is happening. This can be accomplished by successive steps, each disguised as having an economic purpose, but which will eventually and irreversibly lead to federation.” ― Jean Monnet
Edward Heath: Of course, yes.
On BBC's Question Time on 1 November, 1990."
Damn him to hell. Damn them all.
If Remain argued for a federal Europe in public then at least they're arguing for what they really want. Instead we're treated to absolute tripe about "In Europe but not run by Europe".
They have never been very frank about their aims. One thing that the Referendum has established is that Remain are very hostile towards the principle of immigration control.
Edward Heath: Of course, yes.
On BBC's Question Time on 1 November, 1990."
Damn him to hell. Damn them all.
If Remain argued for a federal Europe in public then at least they're arguing for what they really want. Instead we're treated to absolute tripe about "In Europe but not run by Europe".
Yes Heath new exactly what he was doing.
As Michael Ancram (Lord Lothian) says, the public have been lied to for forty years about this.
But in fact, the lies currently being told by the government are bigger than any Heath & Co. indulged in.
'Possibly though I doubt even what we now have was ever fully envisaged.
My point was simply that it was the EEC something entirely different to what we now have after some 40 years of mission creep and not once asking the electorate. '
To be fair to them Enoch Powell and Tony Benn both warned the EEC threatened UK sovereignty all those years ago
Yes - a good example of why it's unwise to by led by 'consensus views'.
Consensus used to believe the world was flat as well.
1. Unless the treaty otherwise provides or the parties otherwise agree, the termination of a treaty under its provisions or in accordance with the present Convention:
(a) releases the parties from any obligation further to perform the treaty;
(b) does not affect any right, obligation or legal situation of the parties created through the execution of the treaty prior to its termination.
I've emphasised the key words. The parties are the member states, not individual EU citizens, to whose rights article 70 is irrelevant.
Disclosure: my ex-wife is a citizen of a non-EU EEA member state, and has the right of residence here. I hope she gets kicked out.
My point was simply that it was the EEC something entirely different to what we now have after some 40 years of mission creep and not once asking the electorate. '
To be fair to them Enoch Powell and Tony Benn both warned the EEC threatened UK sovereignty all those years ago
Yes - a good example of why it's unwise to by led by 'consensus views'.
Consensus used to believe the world was flat as well.
The Euro being the classic example
Man United Fake Bomb 'Was A Training Device'
http://news.sky.com/story/1696625/man-united-fake-bomb-was-a-training-device
But anyway that is not the point. The point is that the current arrangement of Eurozone and non-Eurozone countries cannot continue. The need for a political union means that unless we are going to have a two complete sets of EU institutions, which is utterly impractical, at some point soon there is going to have to be a reckoning with the non Eurozone countries forced to accept effective rule by the Eurozone countries.
I've been thinking of your comparison of Cameron to Heath.
It strikes me that the PB Tories who support Remain would have been Heath loyalists of 1975 while the PB Tories who support Leave would have supported Thatcher in 1975.
Any views ?
Monnet was a visionary man. It is not a vision I share but he was never deceitful or dishonest about what he wanted for Europe.
Now why would REMAIN think that a person with the image of something unpleasant that one has trod in, is a good idea? Anything to do with the fact that the person deciding these things is Mr G. Osborne?
Stupid is as stupid does. Does Will Straw Exec Director of BSE actually take any decisions and what about his Chairman Lord Rose?
I think ultimately there will have to be a clear division between the Eurozone and non Eurozone, even Juncker has accepted there may be an EU 'outer core' which is not in the Euro and the Federalist core
Today's Remainers would have been for appeasement in the 1930s and Halifax (and peace with Germany) in 1940 as well I suspect.
There is absolutely no way that the Telegraph, Mail, Times and Guardian along with Sky and the BBC would all suddenly decide at the same time late one evening to make up something as explosive as that.
The source of the proposed speech was clearly Cameron or his inner circle and it was only when they saw the adverse reaction that they changed it at the last minute.
To blame the papers for reporting something they had been briefed on really is shooting the messenger.
And it doesn't matter what the rest want if you believe treaties should be abided by. They have signed up for the single currency and the only way they can avoid it long term is by breaking their treaty commitments. Effectively rejecting the TFEU.
new thread