a significant minority of nationalists and yes voters see it as logically consistent to want Scotland to leave both unions – the UK and EU, and will vote that way in June. And given the SNP’s popularity, they will be the largest identifiable cohort of Brexit voters in Scotland.
Morning all. Hope you all give the podcast a listen and share. The polling certainly still seems to point towards a Remain vote but with no room for complacency right now.
I saw someone throw around an accusation of bias because Leo is openly pro Remain and say we should have some Pro Leave guests on.
Just to point out a couple of months ago that we did have Douglas Carswell on!
Anyway, you can't please everyone when doing this sort of thing but I thought I would point it out for those less familiar with the show.
Perhaps always having a balanced team would be helpful - pointing out that Douglas was on once is the exception that proves the rule.
Did you listen to today's one though? They were upfront about their biases, and I thought they were pretty even handed
It doesn't negate my observation - if the panel weren't all agreeing with each other - they wouldn't need to add a disclaimer. And stating you're all biased the same way doesn't lead to a balanced debate either.
Without someone who disagrees with you - how can you know what they'd say? Or claim to put their point of view as some devil's advocate. You can't.
A panel of Tories debating Labour would be laughed at - what's the difference?
@georgeeaton: Vote Leave statement confirms they believe Farage is Remain's secret weapon.
Cameron isn't trusted by the public on the EU for good reason, he'll be dreading the debate as much as Farage will be relishing it.
Cameron's Trust Rating with swing voters is appalling. Boris' is much better. I honestly believed Cameron would be very hard to beat - and yet he's self-destructed again and again. Pressure has a most peculiar effect on people. He's not responding well to it here.
I doubt either Johnson or Gove really wanted to debate Cameron and be involved in Blue on Blue violence. Much better for Farage to wield the dagger.
yet more evidence the REMAINERS are seriously frit
...whereas Brexit are SO confident they want regulation or legal action to prevent their guy appearing on TV...
Well they ARE the official organisation, so you can understand their point. However the EU debate is synonymous with Farage so the public would be demanding his arguments (he's kept out of the public eye on media so far, but I assume he's been on the stump.)
Incidentally the betting must move soon, what with all these smoke signals indicating panic at Number 10. HMG will, I am quite sure, be paying for the best private polling.
I reckon LEAVE is now about 5/4 and REMAIN 4/5. What a time to be alive.
I'm beginning to wonder if a Vow will be produced in the final week by Remain - that single pro-Yes poll caused all manner of panic.
I'm sure something like that will be done. But will anyone believe it?
It's not the same as the Scottish situation where the PM could credibly promise some extra goodies for Scotland because he was in the position to deliver them.
With the EU, any 'vow' that related to the UK's relationship with the EU would need to be agreed with the other members. So it's not credibly deliverable - especially as the PM was supposed to have been 'renegotiating' months ago, and (so we are told) already got all the concessions possible.
Once upon a time, such a 'vow' might have centred on promising to veto various things - but that's close to being an empty vessel now too as the veto is limited to such a small number of areas.
Perhaps the PM will reverse his recent position on Turkish membership?
The Tampon Tax Exemption is a perfect example - there isn't one. It's a supposed *win* - but still subject to all manner of other eurocrats agreeing to it sometime in a few years...
I want Leave to point this crap out. Again and again.
The media are talking to themselves about some BBC changes that may or not be happening [I can't tell who's in charge after all of Osborne's meddling]. And ITV has bizarrely invited Farage to go against the PM in the debates.
Farage isn't a big wheel in the official Leave campaign. It's obviously inappropriate to stick him up against Cameron who is leading the official Remain team.
I don't mind Farage speaking and debating - but ITV shouldn't be playing around like this, and certainly shouldn't be dancing to Number 10, if that was indeed the case.
I believe that Gove has said he won't debate Cameron. I don't want Boris, because I think Cameron would destroy him.
In any case, given the way Farage took Clegg apart, I reckon he'll do a good job.
I'm sure Nigel Farage will be technically decent at the job. The problem for Leave is that almost everyone who isn't already convinced by him hates him.
Would any Leave supporter, however, care to try to defend the Vote Leave response to this development?
Presumably if LEAVE wasn't so desperately poor and badly run, LEAVE would be 26 points ahead and Cameron would have already resigned.
Yeah but that polling average is skewed by only having online polls in them. I suspect in a week's time when the phone polls come out that average will show Remain with a hefty lead.
But your remarks are still fucking stupid. Everyone in the world and possibly people on Neptune knows that this is now very tight. Even REMAINIANS - the honest ones - admit it. Cameron's behavior proves it.
Given the overwhelming advantages possessed by REMAIN - about which the europhiles used to gloat (not so much now) - this is a remarkable performance by the LEAVERS.
If you still think LEAVE are running a terrible campaign, in that light, one can only conclude that the REMAIN campaign is yet worse, absolutely dire, or that the public simply don't want what REMAIN is selling, and the more they hear about it, the less impressed they get. In which case, the vote will be LEAVE.
I said on Sunday both campaigns were running dire campaigns to date.
But all the evidence suggests Leave's campaign has been highly effective
Not wholly. The other possibility is that LEAVE are a bit crap, but the REMAIN campaign has been significantly worse. I think it has. From Obama's back-of-the-queue to Cameron's WAR!!!!! they've blown all their set pieces, fluffed their biggest lines. I can't think of similarly notable and impressive gaffes from LEAVE. General chaos, yes, but no front page disasters.
REMAIN has nothing positive to offer the voters - their pitch is:
Continue to put up with all sorts of things you don't like - uncontrolled immigration, low wages, EU interference and power-grabbing, Britain's PM looking like a puppet dancing to the tune of overseas politicians....
Or
There will be war and pestilence and you will all be eating grass.
Morning all. Hope you all give the podcast a listen and share. The polling certainly still seems to point towards a Remain vote but with no room for complacency right now.
I saw someone throw around an accusation of bias because Leo is openly pro Remain and say we should have some Pro Leave guests on.
Just to point out a couple of months ago that we did have Douglas Carswell on!
Anyway, you can't please everyone when doing this sort of thing but I thought I would point it out for those less familiar with the show.
Perhaps always having a balanced team would be helpful - pointing out that Douglas was on once is the exception that proves the rule.
Did you listen to today's one though? They were upfront about their biases, and I thought they were pretty even handed
It doesn't negate my observation - if the panel weren't all agreeing with each other - they wouldn't need to add a disclaimer. And stating you're all biased the same way doesn't lead to a balanced debate either.
Without someone who disagrees with you - how can you know what they'd say? Or claim to put their point of view as some devil's advocate. You can't.
A panel of Tories debating Labour would be laughed at - what's the difference?
This place often feels like a panel of Tories debating Labour...
Incidentally the betting must move soon, what with all these smoke signals indicating panic at Number 10. HMG will, I am quite sure, be paying for the best private polling.
I reckon LEAVE is now about 5/4 and REMAIN 4/5. What a time to be alive.
I'm beginning to wonder if a Vow will be produced in the final week by Remain - that single pro-Yes poll caused all manner of panic.
I'm sure something like that will be done. But will anyone believe it?
It's not the same as the Scottish situation where the PM could credibly promise some extra goodies for Scotland because he was in the position to deliver them.
With the EU, any 'vow' that related to the UK's relationship with the EU would need to be agreed with the other members. So it's not credibly deliverable - especially as the PM was supposed to have been 'renegotiating' months ago, and (so we are told) already got all the concessions possible.
Once upon a time, such a 'vow' might have centred on promising to veto various things - but that's close to being an empty vessel now too as the veto is limited to such a small number of areas.
Perhaps the PM will reverse his recent position on Turkish membership?
The Tampon Tax Exemption is a perfect example - there isn't one. It's a supposed *win* - but still subject to all manner of other eurocrats agreeing to it sometime in a few years...
I want Leave to point this crap out. Again and again.
You say Tampon tax, I'll raise you .. straight bananas.
Presumably if LEAVE wasn't so desperately poor and badly run, LEAVE would be 26 points ahead and Cameron would have already resigned.
Yeah but that polling average is skewed by only having online polls in them. I suspect in a week's time when the phone polls come out that average will show Remain with a hefty lead.
But your remarks are still fucking stupid. Everyone in the world and possibly people on Neptune knows that this is now very tight. Even REMAINIANS - the honest ones - admit it. Cameron's behavior proves it.
Given the overwhelming advantages possessed by REMAIN - about which the europhiles used to gloat (not so much now) - this is a remarkable performance by the LEAVERS.
If you still think LEAVE are running a terrible campaign, in that light, one can only conclude that the REMAIN campaign is yet worse, absolutely dire, or that the public simply don't want what REMAIN is selling, and the more they hear about it, the less impressed they get. In which case, the vote will be LEAVE.
I'm prepared to bet it'll be comfortably 55/45 remain. at least.
I am sticking to my original position. Remain on 41.57% on the Feb 29th Nojam.
It's more or less what Steve Jobs said, to great acclaim.
Isn't it more or less the definition of a free-market system?
Mind you, I note from some of the exchanges yesterday that some of the 'Conservatives' on the REMAIN side seem to be against that now, preferring protectionism and over-regulation.
@georgeeaton: Vote Leave statement confirms they believe Farage is Remain's secret weapon.
Cameron isn't trusted by the public on the EU for good reason, he'll be dreading the debate as much as Farage will be relishing it.
Cameron's Trust Rating with swing voters is appalling. Boris' is much better. I honestly believed Cameron would be very hard to beat - and yet he's self-destructed again and again. Pressure has a most peculiar effect on people. He's not responding well to it here.
If Leave wins (and I still expect Remain to scrape home) I think it will be Cameron's attempt to oversell his renegotiation that did it. Many Conservatives who'd given him the benefit of the doubt, turned against him at that point. They felt he was insulting their intelligence.
Yes. That's when the iron entered my soul.
As someone on the wrong side of Cameron, you and your ilk seemed naive. Cameron is exclusively a political animal, possibly conceived in a CCHQ lab, designed to win elections.
The referendum was a (very successful) device to secure re-election in 2015. It had nothing to do with the EU.
The timing is political. The fact we're having it now is to clear the way for 2020. That's all you need to know.
Incidentally the betting must move soon, what with all these smoke signals indicating panic at Number 10. HMG will, I am quite sure, be paying for the best private polling.
I reckon LEAVE is now about 5/4 and REMAIN 4/5. What a time to be alive.
I'm beginning to wonder if a Vow will be produced in the final week by Remain - that single pro-Yes poll caused all manner of panic.
maybe that's why Gordon's back :-)
I saw a bit of Gordon's speech and Golly!! he's so aggressive. Pacing to-and-fro across the stage, jabbing his finger, almost roaring at his audience.
I was most put off. I barely heard a word - his whole manner is menacing.
A matter of taste, I still prefer him to your man Cameron.
Whatever one's views of Brown these days, he was a serious, professional politician with a worked-out but pragmatic view of changing things. In the 1990s his Commons performances were outstanding, harrying the government time and time again. Compare and contrast with the shower that are running the Opposition show these days.
Incidentally the betting must move soon, what with all these smoke signals indicating panic at Number 10. HMG will, I am quite sure, be paying for the best private polling.
I reckon LEAVE is now about 5/4 and REMAIN 4/5. What a time to be alive.
I'm beginning to wonder if a Vow will be produced in the final week by Remain - that single pro-Yes poll caused all manner of panic.
maybe that's why Gordon's back :-)
I saw a bit of Gordon's speech and Golly!! he's so aggressive. Pacing to-and-fro across the stage, jabbing his finger, almost roaring at his audience.
I was most put off. I barely heard a word - his whole manner is menacing.
presbytarian? he's there to get the Labour base out though isn't he. Not aiming at floating voters like yr good self
Morning all. Hope you all give the podcast a listen and share. The polling certainly still seems to point towards a Remain vote but with no room for complacency right now.
I saw someone throw around an accusation of bias because Leo is openly pro Remain and say we should have some Pro Leave guests on.
Just to point out a couple of months ago that we did have Douglas Carswell on!
Anyway, you can't please everyone when doing this sort of thing but I thought I would point it out for those less familiar with the show.
Perhaps always having a balanced team would be helpful - pointing out that Douglas was on once is the exception that proves the rule.
Did you listen to today's one though? They were upfront about their biases, and I thought they were pretty even handed
It doesn't negate my observation - if the panel weren't all agreeing with each other - they wouldn't need to add a disclaimer. And stating you're all biased the same way doesn't lead to a balanced debate either.
Without someone who disagrees with you - how can you know what they'd say? Or claim to put their point of view as some devil's advocate. You can't.
A panel of Tories debating Labour would be laughed at - what's the difference?
the difference being they were talking strategy/polling, rather than debating the issues. I'd like to hear D. Hannan on though. seems like he might put a good case
Presumably if LEAVE wasn't so desperately poor and badly run, LEAVE would be 26 points ahead and Cameron would have already resigned.
Yeah but that polling average is skewed by only having online polls in them. I suspect in a week's time when the phone polls come out that average will show Remain with a hefty lead.
But your remarks are still fucking stupid. Everyone in the world and possibly people on Neptune knows that this is now very tight. Even REMAINIANS - the honest ones - admit it. Cameron's behavior proves it.
Given the overwhelming advantages possessed by REMAIN - about which the europhiles used to gloat (not so much now) - this is a remarkable performance by the LEAVERS.
If you still think LEAVE are running a terrible campaign, in that light, one can only conclude that the REMAIN campaign is yet worse, absolutely dire, or that the public simply don't want what REMAIN is selling, and the more they hear about it, the less impressed they get. In which case, the vote will be LEAVE.
Even the telephone polls are far tighter than they were last year. Ipsos MORI has gone from 66/22% Remain last June to 49/39% now (50/44% when taking certainty to vote into account). Com Res has gone from leads of 25% + to leads of 7-11%.
I think Remain are running a very efficient campaign. Their problem is that they're trying to sell a very unappealing product.
As far as I can tell, the basis of Remain's support is: (a) I'm doing well from the status quo, (b) I'm a internationalist, not a nationalist, (c) I don't like the types of people that support Leave.
That covers a lot of ABs in London, the south-east and in the major metropolitan cities.
"I'm sure all those who criticised Alastair up thread will be queuing up to criticise this post by MikeK"
Its that old irregular verb.
I gently tease, you make robust remarks, he is very rude.
As I do it myself, I do have some sympathy, though.
It's fine, I'm used to the abuse. I can't tell you how much I'm looking forward to my three week long stint as guest editor of PB starting at the end of this month.
I've already got a two dozen subtle pop music puns planned.
Morning all. Hope you all give the podcast a listen and share. The polling certainly still seems to point towards a Remain vote but with no room for complacency right now.
I saw someone throw around an accusation of bias because Leo is openly pro Remain and say we should have some Pro Leave guests on.
Just to point out a couple of months ago that we did have Douglas Carswell on!
Anyway, you can't please everyone when doing this sort of thing but I thought I would point it out for those less familiar with the show.
Perhaps always having a balanced team would be helpful - pointing out that Douglas was on once is the exception that proves the rule.
____
Morning Plato. I think any accusation of inbalance in the team would be more valid if our analysis was objectively biased / or campaigning which it isn't. For example this week we cover.
1) Can't be 100% sure online polls are the wrong ones
2) Turnout is key to the outcome - Leave voters more committed and less likely to change mind
3) Whilst fundamentals are with Remain the personal finances argument is far from conclusive in the realm of public opinion. Most think it will make no difference.
4) Immigration is key & people think there will be less if we Leave. Some signs people think NHS better out of EU.
Nevertheless we cannot escape the balance of probabilities are with Remain given the PM and business community is Remain and we know voters are risk adverse in referendums. It is also perfectly reasonable to point out that most polls are online which gives a different view than if most polls were phone.
Anyway, not to labour the point but give it a listen and welcome any thoughts. I think the podcast is very fair and balanced.
Thanks for your reply. You're bound to think it's fair and balanced! Not having other opinions on the show does create an echo chamber. One side can't realistically present the opposing view - it's not their wheelhouse and second guessing your opponent is riddled with issues.
There are many pro-Leavers out there - I don't quite understand the issue with just inviting them on - rather than confecting what you think their position is/arguing against it.
Presumably if LEAVE wasn't so desperately poor and badly run, LEAVE would be 26 points ahead and Cameron would have already resigned.
Yeah but that polling average is skewed by only having online polls in them. I suspect in a week's time when the phone polls come out that average will show Remain with a hefty lead.
But your remarks are still fucking stupid. Everyone in the world and possibly people on Neptune knows that this is now very tight. Even REMAINIANS - the honest ones - admit it. Cameron's behavior proves it.
Given the overwhelming advantages possessed by REMAIN - about which the europhiles used to gloat (not so much now) - this is a remarkable performance by the LEAVERS.
If you still think LEAVE are running a terrible campaign, in that light, one can only conclude that the REMAIN campaign is yet worse, absolutely dire, or that the public simply don't want what REMAIN is selling, and the more they hear about it, the less impressed they get. In which case, the vote will be LEAVE.
Even the telephone polls are far tighter than they were last year. Ipsos MORI has gone from 66/22% Remain last June to 49/39% now (50/44% when taking certainty to vote into account). Com Res has gone from leads of 25% + to leads of 7-11%.
I think Remain are running a very efficient campaign. Their problem is that they're trying to sell a very unappealing product.
As far as I can tell, the basis of Remain's support is: (a) I'm doing well from the status quo, (b) I'm a internationalist, not a nationalist, (c) I don't like the types of people that support Leave.
That covers a lot of ABs in London, the south-east and in the major metropolitan cities.
Does it - I wonder. How many people would really describe themselves as 'internationalists'? I know the polling evidence suggests only about 5% of the voters would refer to themselves as 'European' and quite a lot of those people are probably people born abroad.
@georgeeaton: Vote Leave statement confirms they believe Farage is Remain's secret weapon.
Cameron isn't trusted by the public on the EU for good reason, he'll be dreading the debate as much as Farage will be relishing it.
Cameron's Trust Rating with swing voters is appalling. Boris' is much better. I honestly believed Cameron would be very hard to beat - and yet he's self-destructed again and again. Pressure has a most peculiar effect on people. He's not responding well to it here.
If Leave wins (and I still expect Remain to scrape home) I think it will be Cameron's attempt to oversell his renegotiation that did it. Many Conservatives who'd given him the benefit of the doubt, turned against him at that point. They felt he was insulting their intelligence.
Yes. That's when the iron entered my soul.
As someone on the wrong side of Cameron, you and your ilk seemed naive. Cameron is exclusively a political animal, possibly conceived in a CCHQ lab, designed to win elections.
The referendum was a (very successful) device to secure re-election in 2015. It had nothing to do with the EU.
The timing is political. The fact we're having it now is to clear the way for 2020. That's all you need to know.
I knew Cameron was a devious liar. I didn't expect him to lie to me so blatantly and so badly. Like he thought I had an IQ of 7. I also thought he was at least semi-sincere in his negotiation, and would bring back something serious. Just one or two big things. Otherwise he risked losing.
In the end he brought back nothing. At all. And so he risks losing.
Like I say, naive.
Cameron is a cut above. I expect he views opponents on the right with more disdain than those on the left. He is to you what a shark is to Amity bay.
Presumably if LEAVE wasn't so desperately poor and badly run, LEAVE would be 26 points ahead and Cameron would have already resigned.
Yeah but that polling average is skewed by only having online polls in them. I suspect in a week's time when the phone polls come out that average will show Remain with a hefty lead.
But your remarks are still fucking stupid. Everyone in the world and possibly people on Neptune knows that this is now very tight. Even REMAINIANS - the honest ones - admit it. Cameron's behavior proves it.
Given the overwhelming advantages possessed by REMAIN - about which the europhiles used to gloat (not so much now) - this is a remarkable performance by the LEAVERS.
If you still think LEAVE are running a terrible campaign, in that light, one can only conclude that the REMAIN campaign is yet worse, absolutely dire, or that the public simply don't want what REMAIN is selling, and the more they hear about it, the less impressed they get. In which case, the vote will be LEAVE.
Even the telephone polls are far tighter than they were last year. Ipsos MORI has gone from 66/22% Remain last June to 49/39% now (50/44% when taking certainty to vote into account). Com Res has gone from leads of 25% + to leads of 7-11%.
I think Remain are running a very efficient campaign. Their problem is that they're trying to sell a very unappealing product.
As far as I can tell, the basis of Remain's support is: (a) I'm doing well from the status quo, (b) I'm a internationalist, not a nationalist, (c) I don't like the types of people that support Leave.
That covers a lot of ABs in London, the south-east and in the major metropolitan cities.
(c) seems to be a particularly important motivator.
The media are talking to themselves about some BBC changes that may or not be happening [I can't tell who's in charge after all of Osborne's meddling]. And ITV has bizarrely invited Farage to go against the PM in the debates.
Farage isn't a big wheel in the official Leave campaign. It's obviously inappropriate to stick him up against Cameron who is leading the official Remain team.
I don't mind Farage speaking and debating - but ITV shouldn't be playing around like this, and certainly shouldn't be dancing to Number 10, if that was indeed the case.
I believe that Gove has said he won't debate Cameron. I don't want Boris, because I think Cameron would destroy him.
In any case, given the way Farage took Clegg apart, I reckon he'll do a good job.
I'm sure Nigel Farage will be technically decent at the job. The problem for Leave is that almost everyone who isn't already convinced by him hates him.
Would any Leave supporter, however, care to try to defend the Vote Leave response to this development?
Are we in the EU? Yes Have we just entered a new recession? Yes. Case closed. VOTE LEAVE!!!
Fact check. The economy is not in recession, manufacturing is. Strikes me that Leavers are dominated by pensioners who will get their pensions , Brexit or not.
Not sure I agree with the idea Leave are running a tactically-good campaign. They should be putting Stuart Rose's "warning" of rising wages on all their posters, but I've barely seen them mention it.
Presumably if LEAVE wasn't so desperately poor and badly run, LEAVE would be 26 points ahead and Cameron would have already resigned.
Yeah but that polling average is skewed by only having online polls in them. I suspect in a week's time when the phone polls come out that average will show Remain with a hefty lead.
But your remarks are still fucking stupid. Everyone in the world and possibly people on Neptune knows that this is now very tight. Even REMAINIANS - the honest ones - admit it. Cameron's behavior proves it.
Given the overwhelming advantages possessed by REMAIN - about which the europhiles used to gloat (not so much now) - this is a remarkable performance by the LEAVERS.
If you still think LEAVE are running a terrible campaign, in that light, one can only conclude that the REMAIN campaign is yet worse, absolutely dire, or that the public simply don't want what REMAIN is selling, and the more they hear about it, the less impressed they get. In which case, the vote will be LEAVE.
Even the telephone polls are far tighter than they were last year. Ipsos MORI has gone from 66/22% Remain last June to 49/39% now (50/44% when taking certainty to vote into account). Com Res has gone from leads of 25% + to leads of 7-11%.
I think Remain are running a very efficient campaign. Their problem is that they're trying to sell a very unappealing product.
As far as I can tell, the basis of Remain's support is: (a) I'm doing well from the status quo, (b) I'm a internationalist, not a nationalist, (c) I don't like the types of people that support Leave.
That covers a lot of ABs in London, the south-east and in the major metropolitan cities.
(c) seems to be a particularly important motivator.
In addition there are many of us who work with people from the EU on a daily basis, who value them as people and as contributors to our society. Britain has always been a welcoming society.
Presumably if LEAVE wasn't so desperately poor and badly run, LEAVE would be 26 points ahead and Cameron would have already resigned.
Yeah but that polling average is skewed by only having online polls in them. I suspect in a week's time when the phone polls come out that average will show Remain with a hefty lead.
But your remarks are still fucking stupid. Everyone in the world and possibly people on Neptune knows that this is now very tight. Even REMAINIANS - the honest ones - admit it. Cameron's behavior proves it.
Given the overwhelming advantages possessed by REMAIN - about which the europhiles used to gloat (not so much now) - this is a remarkable performance by the LEAVERS.
If you still think LEAVE are running a terrible campaign, in that light, one can only conclude that the REMAIN campaign is yet worse, absolutely dire, or that the public simply don't want what REMAIN is selling, and the more they hear about it, the less impressed they get. In which case, the vote will be LEAVE.
Even the telephone polls are far tighter than they were last year. Ipsos MORI has gone from 66/22% Remain last June to 49/39% now (50/44% when taking certainty to vote into account). Com Res has gone from leads of 25% + to leads of 7-11%.
I think Remain are running a very efficient campaign. Their problem is that they're trying to sell a very unappealing product.
As far as I can tell, the basis of Remain's support is: (a) I'm doing well from the status quo, (b) I'm a internationalist, not a nationalist, (c) I don't like the types of people that support Leave.
That covers a lot of ABs in London, the south-east and in the major metropolitan cities.
It's not just a peculiarity of PB that many in the Remain camp are snobbishly dismissive of those who disagree with them. Insults from this supposedly educated superior civilised class are legion.
This referendum has exposed a great deal of ugliness by those who claim to be so much better than everyone else.
'In addition there are many of us who work with people from the EU on a daily basis, who value them as people and as contributors to our society. Britain has always been a welcoming society.'
------------------
That's fine Doc. Many of my colleagues are from EU countries as well. So is my wife. But I don't want the UK to be in a political union and protectionist economic system with the countries they come from.
'In addition there are many of us who work with people from the EU on a daily basis, who value them as people and as contributors to our society. Britain has always been a welcoming society.'
------------------
That's fine Doc. Many of my colleagues are from EU countries as well. So is my wife. But I don't want the UK to be in a political union and protectionist economic system with the countries they come from.
Presumably if LEAVE wasn't so desperately poor and badly run, LEAVE would be 26 points ahead and Cameron would have already resigned.
Yeah but that polling average is skewed by only having online polls in them. I suspect in a week's time when the phone polls come out that average will show Remain with a hefty lead.
But your remarks are still fucking stupid. Everyone in the world and possibly people on Neptune knows that this is now very tight. Even REMAINIANS - the honest ones - admit it. Cameron's behavior proves it.
Given the overwhelming advantages possessed by REMAIN - about which the europhiles used to gloat (not so much now) - this is a remarkable performance by the LEAVERS.
If you still think LEAVE are running a terrible campaign, in that light, one can only conclude that the REMAIN campaign is yet worse, absolutely dire, or that the public simply don't want what REMAIN is selling, and the more they hear about it, the less impressed they get. In which case, the vote will be LEAVE.
Even the telephone polls are far tighter than they were last year. Ipsos MORI has gone from 66/22% Remain last June to 49/39% now (50/44% when taking certainty to vote into account). Com Res has gone from leads of 25% + to leads of 7-11%.
I think Remain are running a very efficient campaign. Their problem is that they're trying to sell a very unappealing product.
As far as I can tell, the basis of Remain's support is: (a) I'm doing well from the status quo, (b) I'm a internationalist, not a nationalist, (c) I don't like the types of people that support Leave.
That covers a lot of ABs in London, the south-east and in the major metropolitan cities.
It's not just a peculiarity of PB that many in the Remain camp are snobbishly dismissive of those who disagree with them. Insults from this supposedly educated superior civilised class are legion.
This referendum has exposed a great deal of ugliness by those who claim to be so much better than everyone else.
Incidentally the betting must move soon, what with all these smoke signals indicating panic at Number 10. HMG will, I am quite sure, be paying for the best private polling.
I reckon LEAVE is now about 5/4 and REMAIN 4/5. What a time to be alive.
I'm beginning to wonder if a Vow will be produced in the final week by Remain - that single pro-Yes poll caused all manner of panic.
I'm sure something like that will be done. But will anyone believe it?
It's not the same as the Scottish situation where the PM could credibly promise some extra goodies for Scotland because he was in the position to deliver them.
With the EU, any 'vow' that related to the UK's relationship with the EU would need to be agreed with the other members. So it's not credibly deliverable - especially as the PM was supposed to have been 'renegotiating' months ago, and (so we are told) already got all the concessions possible.
Once upon a time, such a 'vow' might have centred on promising to veto various things - but that's close to being an empty vessel now too as the veto is limited to such a small number of areas.
Perhaps the PM will reverse his recent position on Turkish membership?
The Tampon Tax Exemption is a perfect example - there isn't one. It's a supposed *win* - but still subject to all manner of other eurocrats agreeing to it sometime in a few years...
I want Leave to point this crap out. Again and again.
You say Tampon tax, I'll raise you .. straight bananas.
Re the debates they should take place so we get a view from both sides in a common forum. Mrs Moses says that no one is really explaining the implications of either way ( excepting WW3 of course) so this would help people decide.
In regard to Sky and ITV taking sides as far as I am concerned they are free to do so as they are commercial channels. However the BBC cannot as that is a pay by view under threat of jail time.
Either way or whatever we think given some of the comments on here after the last few weeks PB is going to look like a demolition site and just full of rubble. I wonder if some people will ever kiss and make up? Sighs...I remember when it was just green fields round here and we wished to just teach the world to sing. ( Eurovision excepted of course)
PS the site is still utterly fecked with nesting open in full , comments spread onto A3 size which makes posting and reading almost impossible . I blame the nest of spies and vapid cloaked people that have infiltrated form the land of the psycho lizards.
@georgeeaton: Vote Leave statement confirms they believe Farage is Remain's secret weapon.
Cameron isn't trusted by the public on the EU for good reason, he'll be dreading the debate as much as Farage will be relishing it.
Cameron's Trust Rating with swing voters is appalling. Boris' is much better. I honestly believed Cameron would be very hard to beat - and yet he's self-destructed again and again. Pressure has a most peculiar effect on people. He's not responding well to it here.
If Leave wins (and I still expect Remain to scrape home) I think it will be Cameron's attempt to oversell his renegotiation that did it. Many Conservatives who'd given him the benefit of the doubt, turned against him at that point. They felt he was insulting their intelligence.
Yes. That's when the iron entered my soul.
As someone on the wrong side of Cameron, you and your ilk seemed naive. Cameron is exclusively a political animal, possibly conceived in a CCHQ lab, designed to win elections.
The referendum was a (very successful) device to secure re-election in 2015. It had nothing to do with the EU.
The timing is political. The fact we're having it now is to clear the way for 2020. That's all you need to know.
I knew Cameron was a devious liar. I didn't expect him to lie to me so blatantly and so badly. Like he thought I had an IQ of 7. I also thought he was at least semi-sincere in his negotiation, and would bring back something serious. Just one or two big things. Otherwise he risked losing.
In the end he brought back nothing. At all. And so he risks losing.
Like I say, naive.
Cameron is a cut above. I expect he views opponents on the right with more disdain than those on the left. He is to you what a shark is to Amity bay.
The shark died.
All sharks die eventually. It's what they do in the meantime that's the problem. Sadly, there is no Roy Scheider in this particular movie. Boris makes a good Beluga whale.
I think I saw some polling saying 9-10% of the U.K. population are 'global citizens' and couldn't care less about nation states. Probably a further 5% are agnostic about the UK and have sympathy with the European ideal. You've then got people who do well from the status quo, didn't particularly want this referendum and don't care much about immigration - mainly ABs - they'd only switch if a vote to Leave made them immediately much better off (another 20%). That 35% is probably the Remain core.
What Remain has been shedding more of than expected is the 30% above that of C1s and C2s, in particular, who don't know much about the EU but are patriotic, worried about immigration, security, public services/spending and the economy.
At the moment Remain is taking them for fools and, rather than being frightened into supporting HMG, a good number are returning the complement
Presumably if LEAVE wasn't so desperately poor and badly run, LEAVE would be 26 points ahead and Cameron would have already resigned.
Yeah but that polling average is skewed by only having online polls in them. I suspect in a week's time when the phone polls come out that average will show Remain with a hefty lead.
But your remarks are still fucking stupid. Everyone in the world and possibly people on Neptune knows that this is now very tight. Even REMAINIANS - the honest ones - admit it. Cameron's behavior proves it.
Given the overwhelming advantages possessed by REMAIN - about which the europhiles used to gloat (not so much now) - this is a remarkable performance by the LEAVERS.
If you still think LEAVE are running a terrible campaign, in that light, one can only conclude that the REMAIN campaign is yet worse, absolutely dire, or that the public simply don't want what REMAIN is selling, and the more they hear about it, the less impressed they get. In which case, the vote will be LEAVE.
Even the telephone polls are far tighter than they were last year. Ipsos MORI has gone from 66/22% Remain last June to 49/39% now (50/44% when taking certainty to vote into account). Com Res has gone from leads of 25% + to leads of 7-11%.
I think Remain are running a very efficient campaign. Their problem is that they're trying to sell a very unappealing product.
As far as I can tell, the basis of Remain's support is: (a) I'm doing well from the status quo, (b) I'm a internationalist, not a nationalist, (c) I don't like the types of people that support Leave.
That covers a lot of ABs in London, the south-east and in the major metropolitan cities.
It's not just a peculiarity of PB that many in the Remain camp are snobbishly dismissive of those who disagree with them. Insults from this supposedly educated superior civilised class are legion.
This referendum has exposed a great deal of ugliness by those who claim to be so much better than everyone else.
EdM claimed global warming would get worse too. The claims are beyond ridicule.
actually I have sympathy for this one. I can see that multi-country emission regulations backed by law might be more effective.
then again, if you don't consider AGW credible you're hardly going to be persuaded
For me, the need to work together within a common legislative framework to deal with environmental issues such as AGW is perhaps the main reason for Remaining. The denial of the existence or importance of such issues, which seems to be widespread among Leavers, seems quite bizarre to me, as it does to most scientists.
'In addition there are many of us who work with people from the EU on a daily basis, who value them as people and as contributors to our society. Britain has always been a welcoming society.'
------------------
That's fine Doc. Many of my colleagues are from EU countries as well. So is my wife. But I don't want the UK to be in a political union and protectionist economic system with the countries they come from.
I do.
Yes I know, and that's a perfectly respectable opinion.
But you must be aware
a) that most of the public don't agree with you
and
b) your side in this referendum is denying that this is what the referendum is actually about.
Incidentally the betting must move soon, what with all these smoke signals indicating panic at Number 10. HMG will, I am quite sure, be paying for the best private polling.
I reckon LEAVE is now about 5/4 and REMAIN 4/5. What a time to be alive.
I'm beginning to wonder if a Vow will be produced in the final week by Remain - that single pro-Yes poll caused all manner of panic.
If there is it would expose Cameron's 'renegotiation' as a sham.
It was. He promised to lead us all to the promised land but unfortunately forgot to check the time of high tide.....
Mr. T, if we accept the premise that both campaigns are bad, I wonder if that helps Leave more.
I suspect there's a majority that's softly pro-EU (although the more people hear of it the less they seem to like it), but those against the EU must be more fired up. If the campaigns are rubbish, the differential turnout might be advantageous for Leave.
Brexiteers should be grateful that Cameron is willing to debate with any of their number. They might quite enjoy pointing out that things have come to a pretty pass when the prime minister of the UK refuses to defend in debate the continuation of the UK, but will stand up for retaining EU membership.
I'm a shade surprise at the term 'Brexiteer'. It's used by Remainers, but it makes their opposition sound like intrepid explorers. Not sure that's the intention, but it is the impression.
@georgeeaton: Vote Leave statement confirms they believe Farage is Remain's secret weapon.
Cameron isn't trusted by the public on the EU for good reason, he'll be dreading the debate as much as Farage will be relishing it.
Cameron's Trust Rating with swing voters is appalling. Boris' is much better. I honestly believed Cameron would be very hard to beat - and yet he's self-destructed again and again. Pressure has a most peculiar effect on people. He's not responding well to it here.
If Leave wins (and I still expect Remain to scrape home) I think it will be Cameron's attempt to oversell his renegotiation that did it. Many Conservatives who'd given him the benefit of the doubt, turned against him at that point. They felt he was insulting their intelligence.
Yes. That's when the iron entered my soul.
As someone on the wrong side of Cameron, you and your ilk seemed naive. Cameron is exclusively a political animal, possibly conceived in a CCHQ lab, designed to win elections.
The referendum was a (very successful) device to secure re-election in 2015. It had nothing to do with the EU.
The timing is political. The fact we're having it now is to clear the way for 2020. That's all you need to know.
I knew Cameron was a devious liar. I didn't expect him to lie to me so blatantly and so badly. Like he thought I had an IQ of 7. I also thought he was at least semi-sincere in his negotiation, and would bring back something serious. Just one or two big things. Otherwise he risked losing.
In the end he brought back nothing. At all. And so he risks losing.
I think Cameron's problem is similar to that of Matthew Parris or Emma Thompson or Vince Cable or the FT or some of our resident pb regulars: they are far too dismissive and contemptuous of those who object to the European Union.
That comes across in the way they talk to people - and they don't even bother to try and make the case, they just talk down to people.
Unsurprisingly, people pick up on that. And they don't like it.
I see this on my Facebook (yes, yes, I know..) feed from friends of mine who are pro-Remain. They post stuff that'd make Matthew Parris look like a social therapist. When they find out I am a Leaver they are at first totally surprised and shocked, then very sheepish and then quite guarded about the fact around me.
@twlldun: The Brexiteers getting politics the wrong way around again - you are meant to collapse into acrimonious wrangling *after* you lose.
There is an officially designated "Leave" campaign': Vote Leave.
ITV are choosing someone from a rival Leave campaign: Grassroots Out (i.e. not someone from officially designated Vote Leave group).
This is allegedly because Cameron (Remain) refuses to debate against another Tory (even though the senior Vote Leave figures are Tories). In other words, "Remain" are getting to decide who should represent "Leave".
Well the great EU immigration cover up seems to have fizzled out.
"Short-term migration to the UK largely accounts for the recent differences between the number of long-term migrants (as estimated by the International Passenger Survey (IPS)) and the number of National Insurance number (NINo) registrations for EU citizens;
IPS continues to be the best source of information for measuring long-term international migration (LTIM);"
I'm a shade surprise at the term 'Brexiteer'. It's used by Remainers, but it makes their opposition sound like intrepid explorers. Not sure that's the intention, but it is the impression.
foxinsox talks warmly of EU colleagues, I'll be particularly sad on 24th June as I stand on the railway station waving disconsolately at a train marked FOR DEPORTATION
This thread explains why Mike's thesis is spot on: we do need some telephone polls as a 'check' or otherwise to those on-line which for months have showed a tie.
Say the next Comres or Ipsos Mori puts Remain ahead by 10% or more, then that would cast doubt on the claims that Cameron is panicking. Conversely, if they too produce convergence with Yougov, Opinium, TNS etc, then if I were Larry the No 10 cat, I'd give the PM a wider berth.
Brexiteers should be grateful that Cameron is willing to debate with any of their number. They might quite enjoy pointing out that things have come to a pretty pass when the prime minister of the UK refuses to defend in debate the continuation of the UK, but will stand up for retaining EU membership.
Funny how St Nicola is unwilling to share a platform with other REMAINers......hypocritsRus....
Not sure I agree with the idea Leave are running a tactically-good campaign. They should be putting Stuart Rose's "warning" of rising wages on all their posters, but I've barely seen them mention it.
The LEAVE campaign is mediocre. They've done some good stuff - e.g. some hard hitting posters. But they are somewhat chaotic, and internally conflicted. Surprisingly, the REMAIN campaign is still worse. This is partly because Cameron is off form, partly because of sheer incompetence (WAR!!!), but mainly because - as the consensus here concludes - they're trying to sell a crap product.
It worked in that most of your posts mention war, whereas those with a lesser intellect than you will only somewhat distantly recall the association between "Leave"..and.."War"...
Brexiteers should be grateful that Cameron is willing to debate with any of their number. They might quite enjoy pointing out that things have come to a pretty pass when the prime minister of the UK refuses to defend in debate the continuation of the UK, but will stand up for retaining EU membership.
Do you think Junker should be invited to the debate?
Incidentally the betting must move soon, what with all these smoke signals indicating panic at Number 10. HMG will, I am quite sure, be paying for the best private polling.
I reckon LEAVE is now about 5/4 and REMAIN 4/5. What a time to be alive.
I'm beginning to wonder if a Vow will be produced in the final week by Remain - that single pro-Yes poll caused all manner of panic.
I'm sure something like that will be done. But will anyone believe it?
It's not the same as the Scottish situation where the PM could credibly promise some extra goodies for Scotland because he was in the position to deliver them.
With the EU, any 'vow' that related to the UK's relationship with the EU would need to be agreed with the other members. So it's not credibly deliverable - especially as the PM was supposed to have been 'renegotiating' months ago, and (so we are told) already got all the concessions possible.
Once upon a time, such a 'vow' might have centred on promising to veto various things - but that's close to being an empty vessel now too as the veto is limited to such a small number of areas.
Perhaps the PM will reverse his recent position on Turkish membership?
The Tampon Tax Exemption is a perfect example - there isn't one. It's a supposed *win* - but still subject to all manner of other eurocrats agreeing to it sometime in a few years...
I want Leave to point this crap out. Again and again.
Can you just imagine students studying history books on this in 100 years time. I mean it's not exactly 1066 is it?
Meanwhile, They have also delayed an agreement of Cameron's "amazing, you showed 'em, knocked out of the ballpark" deal he brought back from Brussels until after our referendum.
@twlldun: The Brexiteers getting politics the wrong way around again - you are meant to collapse into acrimonious wrangling *after* you lose.
There is an officially designated "Leave" campaign': Vote Leave.
ITV are choosing someone from a rival Leave campaign: Grassroots Out (i.e. not someone from officially designated Vote Leave group).
This is allegedly because Cameron (Remain) refuses to debate against another Tory (even though the senior Vote Leave figures are Tories). In other words, "Remain" are getting to decide who should represent "Leave".
Official Leave group therefore unhappy.
Not that difficult to understand, is it?
ITV says they have asked the Leaders of the Parties with the 1st & 3rd most votes in the GE but a year ago.....since you could hardly ask the leader of the 2nd party as i) he's on the back benches and 2) his replacement is a REMAINer along with 1.
Meanwhile, what 'consequences' will ITV face......?
@twlldun: The Brexiteers getting politics the wrong way around again - you are meant to collapse into acrimonious wrangling *after* you lose.
There is an officially designated "Leave" campaign': Vote Leave.
ITV are choosing someone from a rival Leave campaign: Grassroots Out (i.e. not someone from officially designated Vote Leave group).
This is allegedly because Cameron (Remain) refuses to debate against another Tory (even though the senior Vote Leave figures are Tories). In other words, "Remain" are getting to decide who should represent "Leave".
Official Leave group therefore unhappy.
Not that difficult to understand, is it?
Why don't Vote Leave out up a non Tory as their designated individual to go against Cameron. Carswell or Hoey for instance?
Looks like another campaign day that Leave will use up by moaning about process issues again.
And another day goes by where REMAINIANS spend the entire time laughing, self consciously and unconvincingly, at the LEAVE campaign. Instead of persuading voters of their case.
No one will notice these geeky arguments. Nor will they care.
The "threat to kettles and toasters" will be the only EU issues which MIGHT engage the public consciousness, today.
I mentioned this FPT, it's kitchen table stuff that sticks - not rubbishing niche arguments about whether Cornish pasties are protected or not - they shouldn't need protecting at all.
Boris waves asparagus and pasties before crowds - then cites Farmers Weekly polling that shows their readers are for Brexit - he connects in a way no one else has in years. Cameron's meetings with pre-selected audiences aren't cutting it. He's falling into Gordon/EdM safety territory. His CameronDirect openess was superb - he's now in the bunker and trying to pick his opponents - that's fear talking.
Either we have rules about election coverage or we don't. Given that we do have them, it's not necessarily open to ITV, or anyone else, to simply make 'a commercial decision' on an election programme.
It's not an election
No, it's an election of ideas rather than people. Same difference; it's a democratic decision made by the people of the country.
@georgeeaton: Vote Leave statement confirms they believe Farage is Remain's secret weapon.
Cameron isn't trusted by the public on the EU for good reason, he'll be dreading the debate as much as Farage will be relishing it.
Camer it here.
If Leave wiheir intelligence.
Yes. That's when the iron entered my soul.
As someone on the wrong side of Cameron, you and your ilk seemed naive. Cameron is exclusively a political animal, possibly conceived in a CCHQ lab, designed to win elections.
The referendum was a (very successful) device to secure re-election in 2015. It had nothing to do with the EU.
The timing is political. The fact we're having it now is to clear the way for 2020. That's all you need to know.
I knew Cameron was a devious liar. I didn't expect him to lie to me so blatantly and so badly. Like he thought I had an IQ of 7. I also thought he was at least semi-sincere in his negotiation, and would bring back something serious. Just one or two big things. Otherwise he risked losing.
In the end he brought back nothing. At all. And so he risks losing.
I think Cameron's problem is similar to that of Matthew Parris or Emma Thompson or Vince Cable or the FT or some of our resident pb regulars: they are far too dismissive and contemptuous of those who object to the European Union.
That comes across in the way they talk to people - and they don't even bother to try and make the case, they just talk down to people.
Unsurprisingly, people pick up on that. And they don't like it.
I see this on my Facebook (yes, yes, I know..) feed from friends of mine who are pro-Remain. They post stuff that'd make Matthew Parris look like a social therapist. When they find out I am a Leaver they are at first totally surprised and shocked, then very sheepish and then quite guarded about the fact around me.
The difficulty is that, as @MaxPB mentioned yesterday, we have all got our reasoned, nuanced arguments out of the way. We did them often and thoroughly weeks ago (feels like years).
So unless we are to all now go home and reconvene on June 24th that leaves more colourful interactions.
I don't think I've ever talked down to any Leave poster on here. Apart from @Richard_Tyndall, talking to whom, I said, was like discussing Proust with a strawberry mivi. But then I calls it like I sees it.
Just as aside, I find the idea that there are a bunch of private polls out there that are somehow more accurate than public ones laughable.
Why should a private poll be any more accurate than a public one? (We all know how accurate the SNP's private polling was for IndyRef 1.)
I read about Crosby's private polling pre GE. In my own constituency the odds moved dramatically for no apparent reason a few weeks before the election, this was later explained to me.
Incidentally the betting must move soon, what with all these smoke signals indicating panic at Number 10. HMG will, I am quite sure, be paying for the best private polling.
I reckon LEAVE is now about 5/4 and REMAIN 4/5. What a time to be alive.
I'm beginning to wonder if a Vow will be produced in the final week by Remain - that single pro-Yes poll caused all manner of panic.
I'm sure something like that will be done. But will anyone believe it?
It's not the same as the Scottish situation where the PM could credibly promise some extra goodies for Scotland because he was in the position to deliver them.
With the EU, any 'vow' that related to the UK's relationship with the EU would need to be agreed with the other members. So it's not credibly deliverable - especially as the PM was supposed to have been 'renegotiating' months ago, and (so we are told) already got all the concessions possible.
Once upon a time, such a 'vow' might have centred on promising to veto various things - but that's close to being an empty vessel now too as the veto is limited to such a small number of areas.
Perhaps the PM will reverse his recent position on Turkish membership?
The Tampon Tax Exemption is a perfect example - there isn't one. It's a supposed *win* - but still subject to all manner of other eurocrats agreeing to it sometime in a few years...
I want Leave to point this crap out. Again and again.
You say Tampon tax, I'll raise you .. straight bananas.
I'll see you with ....Euro Sausages...
Which reminds we when is this infamous naked rear end "Whitehall sausage streak" going to take place?
@georgeeaton: Vote Leave statement confirms they believe Farage is Remain's secret weapon.
Cameron isn't trusted by the public on the EU for good reason, he'll be dreading the debate as much as Farage will be relishing it.
Cameron's Trust Rating with swing voters is appalling. Boris' is much better. I honestly believed Cameron would be very hard to beat - and yet he's self-destructed again and again. Pressure has a most peculiar effect on people. He's not responding well to it here.
If Leave wins (and I still expect Remain to scrape home) I think it will be Cameron's attempt to oversell his renegotiation that did it. Many Conservatives who'd given him the benefit of the doubt, turned against him at that point. They felt he was insulting their intelligence.
Yes. That's when the iron entered my soul.
As someone on the wrong side of Cameron, you and your ilk seemed naive. Cameron is exclusively a political animal, possibly conceived in a CCHQ lab, designed to win elections.
The referendum was a (very successful) device to secure re-election in 2015. It had nothing to do with the EU.
The timing is political. The fact we're having it now is to clear the way for 2020. That's all you need to know.
I knew Cameron was a devious liar. I didn't expect him to lie to me so blatantly and so badly. Like he thought I had an IQ of 7. I also thought he was at least semi-sincere in his negotiation, and would bring back something serious. Just one or two big things. Otherwise he risked losing.
In the end he brought back nothing. At all. And so he risks losing.
Like I say, naive.
Cameron is a cut above. I expect he views opponents on the right with more disdain than those on the left. He is to you what a shark is to Amity bay.
The shark died.
All sharks die eventually. It's what they do in the meantime that's the problem. Sadly, there is no Roy Scheider in this particular movie. Boris makes a good Beluga whale.
As a genus, sharks like cockroaches have proved to be remarkably resilient over a few millennia.
Incidentally the betting must move soon, what with all these smoke signals indicating panic at Number 10. HMG will, I am quite sure, be paying for the best private polling.
I reckon LEAVE is now about 5/4 and REMAIN 4/5. What a time to be alive.
I'm beginning to wonder if a Vow will be produced in the final week by Remain - that single pro-Yes poll caused all manner of panic.
I'm sure something like that will be done. But will anyone believe it?
It's not the same as the Scottish situation where the PM could credibly promise some extra goodies for Scotland because he was in the position to deliver them.
With the EU, any 'vow' that related to the UK's relationship with the EU would need to be agreed with the other members. So it's not credibly deliverable - especially as the PM was supposed to have been 'renegotiating' months ago, and (so we are told) already got all the concessions possible.
Once upon a time, such a 'vow' might have centred on promising to veto various things - but that's close to being an empty vessel now too as the veto is limited to such a small number of areas.
Perhaps the PM will reverse his recent position on Turkish membership?
The Tampon Tax Exemption is a perfect example - there isn't one. It's a supposed *win* - but still subject to all manner of other eurocrats agreeing to it sometime in a few years...
I want Leave to point this crap out. Again and again.
Can you just imagine students studying history books on this in 100 years time. I mean it's not exactly 1066 is it?
Meanwhile, They have also delayed an agreement of Cameron's "amazing, you showed 'em, knocked out of the ballpark" deal he brought back from Brussels until after our referendum.
Mmmmm....
History as taught in schools gets a lot more recent than 100 years ago.
My elder daughter wants to do A-level history. She is changing schools to avoid a syllabus that covers 1955-2010: "But that's after I was born! It's after my little sister was born! I can even remember some of it..."
By that indication, the EU referendum should be on history syllabuses (syllabi?) in about 5 years' time.
Brexiteers should be grateful that Cameron is willing to debate with any of their number. They might quite enjoy pointing out that things have come to a pretty pass when the prime minister of the UK refuses to defend in debate the continuation of the UK, but will stand up for retaining EU membership.
Funny how St Nicola is unwilling to share a platform with other REMAINers......hypocritsRus....
You seem to have got all mixed up over platforms and debates. For the hard of thinking, sharing a platform = promoting the same view, debate = contesting opposing views.
@twlldun: The Brexiteers getting politics the wrong way around again - you are meant to collapse into acrimonious wrangling *after* you lose.
There is an officially designated "Leave" campaign': Vote Leave.
ITV are choosing someone from a rival Leave campaign: Grassroots Out (i.e. not someone from officially designated Vote Leave group).
This is allegedly because Cameron (Remain) refuses to debate against another Tory (even though the senior Vote Leave figures are Tories). In other words, "Remain" are getting to decide who should represent "Leave".
Official Leave group therefore unhappy.
Not that difficult to understand, is it?
It doesn't surprise me that VL thinks it has the right to push Cammo about, either.
@tnewtondunn: Vote Leave not backing down, now accusing ITV of wholesale bias. Over the top, and counter productive for them. https://t.co/TFXOLeMvqw
@EdMRound: @PolhomeEditor I'm imagining Dominic Cummings sitting in a cellar with the radio on and a stopwatch in each hand.
Serious tin foil shortage.....not only is Robert Peston who campaigned for the Euro in charge of ITV, but ITV have announced this to create a row by LEAVE (eh-ed?) to distract from the immigration figures the government would rather we didn't pay attention to.
What I can't work out is how the government has forced LEAVE into issuing increasingly hysterical statements.....
I'm a shade surprise at the term 'Brexiteer'. It's used by Remainers, but it makes their opposition sound like intrepid explorers. Not sure that's the intention, but it is the impression.
I think of it like privateers - and its also the handle for self-financing racers.
A privateer (sometimes called corsair or buccaneer) was a private person or ship authorized by a government by letters of marque to attack foreign vessels during wartime, and take them as prizes.
In motorsport, a privateer is usually an entrant into a racing event that is not directly supported by an automobile manufacturer. Privateers teams are often found competing in rally and circuit racing events, and often include competitors who build and maintain their own vehicles. In previous Formula One seasons, privately owned teams would race using the chassis of another team or constructor in preference to building their own car; the Concorde Agreement now prohibits this practice. Increasingly the term is being used in an F1 context to refer to teams who are not at least part-owned by large corporations, such as Williams F1.
Many privateer entrants compete for the enjoyment of the sport, and are not paid to be racing drivers.
@twlldun: The Brexiteers getting politics the wrong way around again - you are meant to collapse into acrimonious wrangling *after* you lose.
There is an officially designated "Leave" campaign': Vote Leave.
ITV are choosing someone from a rival Leave campaign: Grassroots Out (i.e. not someone from officially designated Vote Leave group).
This is allegedly because Cameron (Remain) refuses to debate against another Tory (even though the senior Vote Leave figures are Tories). In other words, "Remain" are getting to decide who should represent "Leave".
Official Leave group therefore unhappy.
Not that difficult to understand, is it?
Why don't Vote Leave out up a non Tory as their designated individual to go against Cameron. Carswell or Hoey for instance?
It's for not me to choose. Then again, it shouldn't be for "remainiac" Cameron to choose, either.
Do you think Leave should refuse to debate unless they get... I dunno, Corbyn? Or maybe Clegg?
@twlldun: The Brexiteers getting politics the wrong way around again - you are meant to collapse into acrimonious wrangling *after* you lose.
There is an officially designated "Leave" campaign': Vote Leave.
ITV are choosing someone from a rival Leave campaign: Grassroots Out (i.e. not someone from officially designated Vote Leave group).
This is allegedly because Cameron (Remain) refuses to debate against another Tory (even though the senior Vote Leave figures are Tories). In other words, "Remain" are getting to decide who should represent "Leave".
Official Leave group therefore unhappy.
Not that difficult to understand, is it?
It doesn't surprise me that VL thinks it has the right to push Cammo about, either.
Comments
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/scotland-blog/2016/may/12/eurosceptic-snp-voters-could-influence-eu-referendum-result-polling-data-shows
A logical consistency that escapes the SNP's leadership.....
"Insecurity is fantastic," says billionaire funder of Brexit campaign
http://www.reuters.com/article/britain-eu-donations-hargreaves-idUSL5N189265
Without someone who disagrees with you - how can you know what they'd say? Or claim to put their point of view as some devil's advocate. You can't.
A panel of Tories debating Labour would be laughed at - what's the difference?
I want Leave to point this crap out. Again and again.
Continue to put up with all sorts of things you don't like - uncontrolled immigration, low wages, EU interference and power-grabbing, Britain's PM looking like a puppet dancing to the tune of overseas politicians....
Or
There will be war and pestilence and you will all be eating grass.
It won't enthuse anyone - nor is it credible.
Mind you, I note from some of the exchanges yesterday that some of the 'Conservatives' on the REMAIN side seem to be against that now, preferring protectionism and over-regulation.
The referendum was a (very successful) device to secure re-election in 2015. It had nothing to do with the EU.
The timing is political. The fact we're having it now is to clear the way for 2020. That's all you need to know.
"I'm sure all those who criticised Alastair up thread will be queuing up to criticise this post by MikeK"
Its that old irregular verb.
I gently tease, you make robust remarks, he is very rude.
As I do it myself, I do have some sympathy, though.
I'm not making this up. It was one of those tweets that made me think WTF? I wish I could find the tweet.
EdM claimed global warming would get worse too. The claims are beyond ridicule.
That covers a lot of ABs in London, the south-east and in the major metropolitan cities.
I've already got a two dozen subtle pop music puns planned.
Stuck in the middle with EU.
Europe: The Final Countdown to the referendum.
That sort of stuff.
Everyone knows we'd die in the Third World War, or possibly drown from rising sea levels.
There are many pro-Leavers out there - I don't quite understand the issue with just inviting them on - rather than confecting what you think their position is/arguing against it.
then again, if you don't consider AGW credible you're hardly going to be persuaded
Cameron is a cut above. I expect he views opponents on the right with more disdain than those on the left. He is to you what a shark is to Amity bay.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/04/leave-campaigners-arent-being-disrespected-theyre-being-paranoid/
Strikes me that Leavers are dominated by pensioners who will get their pensions , Brexit or not.
Oh, wait...
@IanDunt: The idea that you reveal your pro-EU bias by inviting Nigel Farage onto a programme is one of the stupidest ideas I've heard all week.
@DavidMills73: Glad that Vote Leave has got us talking about the big issue facing Britain - how to neutralise the Quisling cell within ITV
@SamCoatesTimes: NEW: Vote Leave release new statement making further allegations about ITV impartiality with new legal threat https://t.co/3qPlarZ11N
Surely the first sentence of Sean T’s post should be in the present tense. Possibly with the addition of “and always has been"
This referendum has exposed a great deal of ugliness by those who claim to be so much better than everyone else.
'In addition there are many of us who work with people from the EU on a daily basis, who value them as people and as contributors to our society. Britain has always been a welcoming society.'
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That's fine Doc. Many of my colleagues are from EU countries as well. So is my wife. But I don't want the UK to be in a political union and protectionist economic system with the countries they come from.
In regard to Sky and ITV taking sides as far as I am concerned they are free to do so as they are commercial channels. However the BBC cannot as that is a pay by view under threat of jail time.
Either way or whatever we think given some of the comments on here after the last few weeks PB is going to look like a demolition site and just full of rubble. I wonder if some people will ever kiss and make up? Sighs...I remember when it was just green fields round here and we wished to just teach the world to sing. ( Eurovision excepted of course)
PS
the site is still utterly fecked with nesting open in full , comments spread onto A3 size which makes posting and reading almost impossible . I blame the nest of spies and vapid cloaked people that have infiltrated form the land of the psycho lizards.
I think I saw some polling saying 9-10% of the U.K. population are 'global citizens' and couldn't care less about nation states. Probably a further 5% are agnostic about the UK and have sympathy with the European ideal. You've then got people who do well from the status quo, didn't particularly want this referendum and don't care much about immigration - mainly ABs - they'd only switch if a vote to Leave made them immediately much better off (another 20%). That 35% is probably the Remain core.
What Remain has been shedding more of than expected is the 30% above that of C1s and C2s, in particular, who don't know much about the EU but are patriotic, worried about immigration, security, public services/spending and the economy.
At the moment Remain is taking them for fools and, rather than being frightened into supporting HMG, a good number are returning the complement
But you must be aware
a) that most of the public don't agree with you
and
b) your side in this referendum is denying that this is what the referendum is actually about.
I suspect there's a majority that's softly pro-EU (although the more people hear of it the less they seem to like it), but those against the EU must be more fired up. If the campaigns are rubbish, the differential turnout might be advantageous for Leave.
'This referendum has exposed a great deal of ugliness by those who claim to be so much better than everyone else.'
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I'm not sure why anyone would find that surprising. Arrogance and condescension are never attractive attributes.
That comes across in the way they talk to people - and they don't even bother to try and make the case, they just talk down to people.
Unsurprisingly, people pick up on that. And they don't like it.
I see this on my Facebook (yes, yes, I know..) feed from friends of mine who are pro-Remain. They post stuff that'd make Matthew Parris look like a social therapist. When they find out I am a Leaver they are at first totally surprised and shocked, then very sheepish and then quite guarded about the fact around me.
ITV are choosing someone from a rival Leave campaign: Grassroots Out (i.e. not someone from officially designated Vote Leave group).
This is allegedly because Cameron (Remain) refuses to debate against another Tory (even though the senior Vote Leave figures are Tories). In other words, "Remain" are getting to decide who should represent "Leave".
Official Leave group therefore unhappy.
Not that difficult to understand, is it?
Why should a private poll be any more accurate than a public one? (We all know how accurate the SNP's private polling was for IndyRef 1.)
"Short-term migration to the UK largely accounts for the recent differences between the number of long-term migrants (as estimated by the International Passenger Survey (IPS)) and the number of National Insurance number (NINo) registrations for EU citizens;
IPS continues to be the best source of information for measuring long-term international migration (LTIM);"
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/articles/noteonthedifferencebetweennationalinsurancenumberregistrationsandtheestimateoflongterminternationalmigration/2016
"Corbynistas / Blairites"
Say the next Comres or Ipsos Mori puts Remain ahead by 10% or more, then that would cast doubt on the claims that Cameron is panicking. Conversely, if they too produce convergence with Yougov, Opinium, TNS etc, then if I were Larry the No 10 cat, I'd give the PM a wider berth.
Meanwhile, They have also delayed an agreement of Cameron's "amazing, you showed 'em, knocked out of the ballpark" deal he brought back from Brussels until after our referendum.
Mmmmm....
Leave campaign response?
Better call the lawyers...
This is not the action of a campaign confident in its message.
Meanwhile, what 'consequences' will ITV face......?
@EdMRound: @PolhomeEditor I'm imagining Dominic Cummings sitting in a cellar with the radio on and a stopwatch in each hand.
Boris waves asparagus and pasties before crowds - then cites Farmers Weekly polling that shows their readers are for Brexit - he connects in a way no one else has in years. Cameron's meetings with pre-selected audiences aren't cutting it. He's falling into Gordon/EdM safety territory. His CameronDirect openess was superb - he's now in the bunker and trying to pick his opponents - that's fear talking.
So unless we are to all now go home and reconvene on June 24th that leaves more colourful interactions.
I don't think I've ever talked down to any Leave poster on here. Apart from @Richard_Tyndall, talking to whom, I said, was like discussing Proust with a strawberry mivi. But then I calls it like I sees it.
Which reminds we when is this infamous naked rear end "Whitehall sausage streak" going to take place?
*shields eyes and recoils in horror*
My elder daughter wants to do A-level history. She is changing schools to avoid a syllabus that covers 1955-2010: "But that's after I was born! It's after my little sister was born! I can even remember some of it..."
By that indication, the EU referendum should be on history syllabuses (syllabi?) in about 5 years' time.
For the hard of thinking, sharing a platform = promoting the same view, debate = contesting opposing views.
If that is not Vote Leave's message they are in deeper trouble than it looks
Farage wants to leave the EU, whereas Vote Leave...um...mmm...er..
What I can't work out is how the government has forced LEAVE into issuing increasingly hysterical statements.....
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It's for not me to choose. Then again, it shouldn't be for "remainiac" Cameron to choose, either.
Do you think Leave should refuse to debate unless they get... I dunno, Corbyn? Or maybe Clegg?