'Being drowned out by the BBC and the corruption conference '
They can do that for a day or so ,but you really believe that the 470,000 figure is not a game changer ?
Remind us what is the number 1 voter concern in virtually every poll for the past couple of years.v
Not really because I am not obsessed with immigration. I do accept that there are parts of the UK under strain but it is the economy and security from within the EU that wins it for me. I would be much more concerned if we had high unemployment but with unemployment at about 5% I do not see it as anything other than leaves own 'project fear'
The issue isn't so much unemployment as capacity in the NHS, education system, etc. We need to make a lot of investment to ensure that we can provide public services to a high enough quality for an additional 0.5m+ per year.
That's a lot of time, effort and resources & an uncertain future payback from the immigrants.
Essentially accuses the prime minister of LYING about EU migration stats. Read the details.
Come on LEAVE, pull yer arses out. You could win the referendum today.
Being drowned out by the BBC and the corruption conference
They won't be able to drown it out forever. It's too big. Portes only tweeted ten minutes ago.
It is leave's only hope of gaining traction but now they are caught up in a huge row v ITV and the labour party calling them out in the HOC.
It will probably explode tomorrow, on the newspapers.
Also WTF with "LEAVE's only hope"? Right now, according to the Economist, LEAVE are WINNING
I really don't understand this bizarre complacency from REMAINIACS, is it just whistling in the dark, or are they stupid enough to think they've got this in the bag?
Jonathan Portes' analysis there is pretty damning.
And note he is a VERY strong REMAINER. Just on this topic he refuses to allow that to cloud his judgement.
EU immigration has, and continues to be, massively understated.
I think there needs to be a smoking gun.
'The Government has said 'X'. The truth is 'XX' as indisputably shown by 'Y'.
It needs to be relatable and understandable. Then this could be damaging.
I think the Leavers are worrying too much over Nigel Farage's selection. While his efforts to get media coverage cause him to make inflammatory statements, he is capable of being serious when it suits him. He is actually a very good debater and he knows the minutiae of the EU back to front. Farage will also be free to criticize Cameron's policies where Conservatives would have to show due party solidarity.
Having said that, it does not seem fair that David Cameron gets to set the rules for who the other side gets to include. If the Leavers want to put up Michael Gove and the Remainers do not want the PM debating Tories, then Remain should have to put up somebody else. We saw a similar thing happening with the election debates, where David Cameron practically dictated the format. The broadcasters show too much deference to the government in this country.
I've spoken to ten people this week and they are all for LEAVE.
Have seen three posters and one car sticker, all for LEAVE.
Means nothing of course... Maybe there's a "silent majority" who are gonna come out for REMAIN on the day (like STAY'ers did in Scotland) but at this stage I'm surprised at how well LEAVE is doing given everything that's been thrown at it from threats from the POTUS down...
I think it is impossible to read anything into people we know or signs we see. Everything we know from the polling suggests this is an issue where people are exceptionally divided by geography, age and social class. The biases of our own backgrounds, the places we visit and the people we mix with are going to be much, much stronger in our experiences of "the view of the country" then in any other election.
Agreed. And welcome to PB.com. We're not normally as bad as we are at the moment... This referendum is making everyone crazy.
No-one too bothered about the shenanigans in Wales then? I don't blame you all as there is plenty of fun elsewhere but it's quite entertaining. The vote for FM was a tie between Carwyn Jones and Leanne Wood (who got Tory and Ukip support) so we're in a stalemate. Meanwhile Neil Hamilton has enacted a coup in Ukip to make himself leader of the group, much to Mr Farage's disgruntlement. I've no idea what the rules are but some are claiming there could be a re-run of the election.
If "vapid bilge" is considered by some on PB to be the red line on insults might I suggest that they may have missed some of the more illuminating contributions of SeanT and malcolmg who would think the offending "vapid bilge" to be hugely complimentary.
Tsk ....
Yes - hard though it is to credit, some posters have even been called turnips. Language doesn't come much more unparliamentary than that.
If you haven't been so credited by @malcolmg as being among that family of root vegetables then there seems little point in going on. One might just as well drown oneself in a welter of vapid bilge and turnip soup.
If "vapid bilge" is considered by some on PB to be the red line on insults might I suggest that they may have missed some of the more illuminating contributions of SeanT and malcolmg who would think the offending "vapid bilge" to be hugely complimentary.
Tsk ....
IIRC Sean T once called Nick Palmer a "leper's toupee".
Indeed.
It caused a fit of the vapours among the Tories4Palmer group and had Mike Smithson giving some of his old wigs away for medical research.
I've spoken to ten people this week and they are all for LEAVE.
Have seen three posters and one car sticker, all for LEAVE.
Means nothing of course... Maybe there's a "silent majority" who are gonna come out for REMAIN on the day (like STAY'ers did in Scotland) but at this stage I'm surprised at how well LEAVE is doing given everything that's been thrown at it from threats from the POTUS down...
I think it is impossible to read anything into people we know or signs we see. Everything we know from the polling suggests this is an issue where people are exceptionally divided by geography, age and social class. The biases of our own backgrounds, the places we visit and the people we mix with are going to be much, much stronger in our experiences of "the view of the country" then in any other election.
Agreed. And welcome to PB.com. We're not normally as bad as we are at the moment... This referendum is making everyone crazy.
Thank you! I am the only person in my family that does not know which way to vote. Am I the only person on this website still undecided?
If "vapid bilge" is considered by some on PB to be the red line on insults might I suggest that they may have missed some of the more illuminating contributions of SeanT and malcolmg who would think the offending "vapid bilge" to be hugely complimentary.
Tsk ....
I must draw your attention to the popularity of * vapid bilge*
Bank of England has warned that a vote to leave EU could "materially" lower UK growth & lead to sharp falls in the value of the pound #EUref
Marvellous news for exporters and domestic producers competing with cheap foreign imports.
Given we're still something of a currency safe haven maybe a fall in the pound would be no bad thing. I thought the Bank was horrified by the current account deficit and hoping for a devaluation.
I've spoken to ten people this week and they are all for LEAVE.
Have seen three posters and one car sticker, all for LEAVE.
Means nothing of course... Maybe there's a "silent majority" who are gonna come out for REMAIN on the day (like STAY'ers did in Scotland) but at this stage I'm surprised at how well LEAVE is doing given everything that's been thrown at it from threats from the POTUS down...
EUphobes have been waiting for this moment for 30 years , not surprising they are making the most noise. Whether it signifies anything remains to be seen.
I've spoken to ten people this week and they are all for LEAVE.
Have seen three posters and one car sticker, all for LEAVE.
Means nothing of course... Maybe there's a "silent majority" who are gonna come out for REMAIN on the day (like STAY'ers did in Scotland) but at this stage I'm surprised at how well LEAVE is doing given everything that's been thrown at it from threats from the POTUS down...
I think it is impossible to read anything into people we know or signs we see. Everything we know from the polling suggests this is an issue where people are exceptionally divided by geography, age and social class. The biases of our own backgrounds, the places we visit and the people we mix with are going to be much, much stronger in our experiences of "the view of the country" then in any other election.
Agreed. And welcome to PB.com. We're not normally as bad as we are at the moment... This referendum is making everyone crazy.
Thank you! I am the only person in my family that does not know which way to vote. Am I the only person on this website still undecided?
And the number of EU immigrants claiming benefits has been massively overstated by the government and others. The contribution that they are making to the economy is far greater than previously thought.
No-one too bothered about the shenanigans in Wales then? I don't blame you all as there is plenty of fun elsewhere but it's quite entertaining. The vote for FM was a tie between Carwyn Jones and Leanne Wood (who got Tory and Ukip support) so we're in a stalemate. Meanwhile Neil Hamilton has enacted a coup in Ukip to make himself leader of the group, much to Mr Farage's disgruntlement. I've no idea what the rules are but some are claiming there could be a re-run of the election.
The Lib Dems did Leanne Wood a massive favour. Plaid would have been utterly ruined if she became First Minister I reckon.
If "vapid bilge" is considered by some on PB to be the red line on insults might I suggest that they may have missed some of the more illuminating contributions of SeanT and malcolmg who would think the offending "vapid bilge" to be hugely complimentary.
Tsk ....
I must draw your attention to the popularity of * vapid bilge*
I've spoken to ten people this week and they are all for LEAVE.
Have seen three posters and one car sticker, all for LEAVE.
Means nothing of course... Maybe there's a "silent majority" who are gonna come out for REMAIN on the day (like STAY'ers did in Scotland) but at this stage I'm surprised at how well LEAVE is doing given everything that's been thrown at it from threats from the POTUS down...
I think it is impossible to read anything into people we know or signs we see. Everything we know from the polling suggests this is an issue where people are exceptionally divided by geography, age and social class. The biases of our own backgrounds, the places we visit and the people we mix with are going to be much, much stronger in our experiences of "the view of the country" then in any other election.
Agreed. And welcome to PB.com. We're not normally as bad as we are at the moment... This referendum is making everyone crazy.
Thank you! I am the only person in my family that does not know which way to vote. Am I the only person on this website still undecided?
The people in my acquaintance that are plumping for Remain fall into two broad categories:
1) They have family, business or property ties in the EU; 2) Ardent lefties who think the Tories will introduce slave labour;
Bank of England just announced a vote to leave could ' materially lower growth and lead to sharp falls in the value of the pound. Sky saying never seen such an intervention by the Bank Of England. Vote leave furious apparently. This is not good for Brexit not matter how much they try to dismiss it
It was predicted on here on Sunday that this would come either yesterday or today.
No-one too bothered about the shenanigans in Wales then? I don't blame you all as there is plenty of fun elsewhere but it's quite entertaining. The vote for FM was a tie between Carwyn Jones and Leanne Wood (who got Tory and Ukip support) so we're in a stalemate. Meanwhile Neil Hamilton has enacted a coup in Ukip to make himself leader of the group, much to Mr Farage's disgruntlement. I've no idea what the rules are but some are claiming there could be a re-run of the election.
If it does end in new elections it must be likely Labour would win a majority second time around.
I've spoken to ten people this week and they are all for LEAVE.
Have seen three posters and one car sticker, all for LEAVE.
Means nothing of course... Maybe there's a "silent majority" who are gonna come out for REMAIN on the day (like STAY'ers did in Scotland) but at this stage I'm surprised at how well LEAVE is doing given everything that's been thrown at it from threats from the POTUS down...
I think it is impossible to read anything into people we know or signs we see. Everything we know from the polling suggests this is an issue where people are exceptionally divided by geography, age and social class. The biases of our own backgrounds, the places we visit and the people we mix with are going to be much, much stronger in our experiences of "the view of the country" then in any other election.
Agreed. And welcome to PB.com. We're not normally as bad as we are at the moment... This referendum is making everyone crazy.
Thank you! I am the only person in my family that does not know which way to vote. Am I the only person on this website still undecided?
I think the Leavers are worrying too much over Nigel Farage's selection. While his efforts to get media coverage cause him to make inflammatory statements, he is capable of being serious when it suits him. He is actually a very good debater and he knows the minutiae of the EU back to front. Farage will also be free to criticize Cameron's policies where Conservatives would have to show due party solidarity.
Having said that, it does not seem fair that David Cameron gets to set the rules for who the other side gets to include. If the Leavers want to put up Michael Gove and the Remainers do not want the PM debating Tories, then Remain should have to put up somebody else. We saw a similar thing happening with the election debates, where David Cameron practically dictated the format. The broadcasters show too much deference to the government in this country.
Essentially accuses the prime minister of LYING about EU migration stats. Read the details.
Come on LEAVE, pull yer arses out. You could win the referendum today.
Being drowned out by the BBC and the corruption conference
They won't be able to drown it out forever. It's too big. Portes only tweeted ten minutes ago.
It is leave's only hope of gaining traction but now they are caught up in a huge row v ITV and the labour party calling them out in the HOC.
It will probably explode tomorrow, on the newspapers.
Also WTF with "LEAVE's only hope"? Right now, according to the Economist, LEAVE are WINNING
I really don't understand this bizarre complacency from REMAINIACS, is it just whistling in the dark, or are they stupid enough to think they've got this in the bag?
Me neither - it's extraordinary. Are they swallowing their own echo chamber Kool-Aid?
I think it's Denial. Threader after threader on here discussing the crapness and awfulness of the LEAVE campaign. It's borderline psychotic.
They can't believe they might actually lose this, because it is too painful to contemplate; so they are pretending to themselves they are secretly winning, and winning easily, to mask the internal angst.
We'll cope. It's not personal, it's pragmatic. On balance, at the margin I think being a member of the EU is more advantageous to the country than not being a member.
I think there will be value destruction, as would there be with a Labour government. I also think, sadly, that as with a Labour govt's profligacy and its consequences, it will be borne more by those less well off, rather than by those, say, commentating from their Des Primrose Hill Res.
Of course crying "Freedom!" is positively 1992 Sheffield rally Kinnockite in its feelgood factor. But it doesn't mean he wouldn't have damaged the country. So just as when debating with Labourites about how I think it would be bad for the country for there to be a Labour government, I likewise think it will be bad for the country if we Leave.
do you honestly believe the Tories would have won a majority in 2015 without Cameron as leader?
Against Ed Miliband? Yes!
Not sure they would have done with a leader from the right wing of the party, they really aren't appealing to floating voters, outdated social views and backstabbing are so passe.
As we all know Camerons personal ratings were miles higher than the Conservatives as a party. As a lifelong Tory I despair to see the same stupid mistakes being made, in some cases by the same stupid people.
I sometimes get the impression that left wing Tories would rather see Labour in power than a Conservative government led from the right.
I am very against the right of the party but absolutely would not want labour in power. By the way I am not a left wing Tory, just one that is on the centre right
Gosh, Mr. G, are you not in danger of angels dancing on a pin head territory? The difference between a centre-right Tory and a right-right Tory is probably in the eye of the beholder anyway. Even a left-right Tory is probably indistinguishable from the others for someone whose point of view is further to the left.
I think the whole left-right measure has become useless, if it ever was of use. Personally I am quite "left" on some economic issues and would agree with @Southam_Observer, @Alanbrooke and even @NickPalmer. On others I am much more in line with traditional Conservatives such as @Charles. On other issues I vary from agreeing with, the hated by many, Farage at one end and the likes of Mr. Observer at the other. I suspect many people, other than the complete tribal loyalists, have a similar spread of views. The whole idea that people can be pigeon holed into a category seems daft to me.
do you honestly believe the Tories would have won a majority in 2015 without Cameron as leader?
Against Ed Miliband? Yes!
Not sure they would have done with a leader from the right wing of the party, they really aren't appealing to floating voters, outdated social views and backstabbing are so passe.
As we all know Camerons personal ratings were miles higher than the Conservatives as a party. As a lifelong Tory I despair to see the same stupid mistakes being made, in some cases by the same stupid people.
I sometimes get the impression that left wing Tories would rather see Labour in power than a Conservative government led from the right.
I am very against the right of the party but absolutely would not want labour in power. By the way I am not a left wing Tory, just one that is on the centre right
Gosh, Mr. G, are you not in danger of angels dancing on a pin head territory? The difference between a centre-right Tory and a right-right Tory is probably in the eye of the beholder anyway. Even a left-right Tory is probably indistinguishable from the others for someone whose point of view is further to the left.
I think the whole left-right measure has become useless, if it ever was of use. Personally I am quite "left" on some economic issues and would agree with @Southam_Observer, @Alanbrooke and even @NickPalmer. On others I am much more in line with traditional Conservatives such as @Charles. On other issues I vary from agreeing with, the hated by many, Farage at one end and the likes of Mr. Observer at the other. I suspect many people, other than the complete tribal loyalists, have a similar spread of views. The whole idea that people can be pigeon holed into a category seems daft to me.
Fair comment but I absolutely am not to the right of the party
And the number of EU immigrants claiming benefits has been massively overstated by the government and others. The contribution that they are making to the economy is far greater than previously thought.
I've spoken to ten people this week and they are all for LEAVE.
Have seen three posters and one car sticker, all for LEAVE.
Means nothing of course... Maybe there's a "silent majority" who are gonna come out for REMAIN on the day (like STAY'ers did in Scotland) but at this stage I'm surprised at how well LEAVE is doing given everything that's been thrown at it from threats from the POTUS down...
Bank of England just announced a vote to leave could ' materially lower growth and lead to sharp falls in the value of the pound. Sky saying never seen such an intervention by the Bank Of England. Vote leave furious apparently. This is not good for Brexit not matter how much they try to dismiss it
I am not so sure. REMAIN have been using a barrage of statements from authority figures to try to browbeat the ordinary voter. I suspect many may resent this. As a strategy it has been deployed too early, will gain rapidly diminishing returns as time goes on and finally backfire altogether.
I suggest we need a thread on these migration stats. Could they win or lose the vote?
Here's Mr Portes on the Daily Politics.
Says there is definitely some undercounting. Says it is in the "low hundreds of thousands". So that's alright then. Andrew Neil helpfully points out that in 2015 we registered 250,000 EU migrants, though nearly 700,000 got NI numbers.
It's clear now that EU immigrants make a far greater contribution to the economy than we have been told. A far lower percentage are claiming benefits, more are working and paying tax:
do you honestly believe the Tories would have won a majority in 2015 without Cameron as leader?
Against Ed Miliband? Yes!
Not sure they would have done with a leader from the right wing of the party, they really aren't appealing to floating voters, outdated social views and backstabbing are so passe.
As we all know Camerons personal ratings were miles higher than the Conservatives as a party. As a lifelong Tory I despair to see the same stupid mistakes being made, in some cases by the same stupid people.
I sometimes get the impression that left wing Tories would rather see Labour in power than a Conservative government led from the right.
It's those on the left of the Conservatives who've been keeping Labour *out* of power these past six years!
Certainly there'd be some who'd be uncomfortable with a hard-right leadership but then it's just about the case for all factions in all parties that they're uncomfortable with leadership from a different wing. That's multiplied for moderates by the knowledge that not only are the policies not what they'd prefer but invariably they're also a drag on the party's electoral chances.
Bank of England just announced a vote to leave could ' materially lower growth and lead to sharp falls in the value of the pound. Sky saying never seen such an intervention by the Bank Of England. Vote leave furious apparently. This is not good for Brexit not matter how much they try to dismiss it
It was predicted on here on Sunday that this would come either yesterday or today.
PS. In the short-term it almost certainly will because the Government has announced no post-Brexit contingency plan or alternative, by design to maximise the fear and chance of a Remain vote, so the markets will be temporarily be spooked.
If there is a Leave vote there will be a reshuffle on Friday and emergency meetings of the Cabinet over the weekend to put out a statement on the Monday (suddenly revealing the secret contingency plan) for when the markets open.
Says there is definitely some undercounting. Says it is in the "low hundreds of thousands". So that's alright then. Andrew Neil helpfully points out that in 2015 we registered 250,000 EU migrants, though nearly 700,000 got NI numbers.
I think the Leavers are worrying too much over Nigel Farage's selection. While his efforts to get media coverage cause him to make inflammatory statements, he is capable of being serious when it suits him. He is actually a very good debater and he knows the minutiae of the EU back to front. Farage will also be free to criticize Cameron's policies where Conservatives would have to show due party solidarity.
Having said that, it does not seem fair that David Cameron gets to set the rules for who the other side gets to include. If the Leavers want to put up Michael Gove and the Remainers do not want the PM debating Tories, then Remain should have to put up somebody else. We saw a similar thing happening with the election debates, where David Cameron practically dictated the format. The broadcasters show too much deference to the government in this country.
Thank you! I am afraid I am not as involved in political activism as others here seem to be, but I do my best to keep up to speed.
Presumably @Bodie in a plate glass shattering fast car. We shall expect all your introductory contributions to be as dynamic, last no longer than an hour including ads and finish with you saving PB from malcontents, vagabonds and other members of the LEAVE/REMAIN campaigns ....
Bank of England just announced a vote to leave could ' materially lower growth and lead to sharp falls in the value of the pound. Sky saying never seen such an intervention by the Bank Of England. Vote leave furious apparently. This is not good for Brexit not matter how much they try to dismiss it
I am not so sure. REMAIN have been using a barrage of statements from authority figures to try to browbeat the ordinary voter. I suspect many may resent this. As a strategy it has been deployed too early, will gain rapidly diminishing returns as time goes on and finally backfire altogether.
Think on the way to the polling booth. People won't be able to remember the minutiae of the arguments (those that aren't set in their ways, anyway) but from their distant subconscious will emerge a whole bunch of figures, institutions, etc that warn of the dangers of leaving. And those people might use those warnings as a useful shorthand to determine how they will vote.
I'm confused now. Yesterday the NIESR were discredited Osborne stooges. Today their chief economist is the one true voice of authority who can single-handedly demonstrate that the ONS are traitors and liars. It's so hard to keep up.
It's clear now that EU immigrants make a far greater contribution to the economy than we have been told. A far lower percentage are claiming benefits, more are working and paying tax
No-one too bothered about the shenanigans in Wales then? I don't blame you all as there is plenty of fun elsewhere but it's quite entertaining. The vote for FM was a tie between Carwyn Jones and Leanne Wood (who got Tory and Ukip support) so we're in a stalemate. Meanwhile Neil Hamilton has enacted a coup in Ukip to make himself leader of the group, much to Mr Farage's disgruntlement. I've no idea what the rules are but some are claiming there could be a re-run of the election.
The Lib Dems did Leanne Wood a massive favour. Plaid would have been utterly ruined if she became First Minister I reckon.
She has to see the implausibility of it. There's no way Labour won't stay in power but the others want as much pressure on them as possible. Fact is they got a third of the vote. They can't walk around like they own the place.
Bank of England just announced a vote to leave could ' materially lower growth and lead to sharp falls in the value of the pound. Sky saying never seen such an intervention by the Bank Of England. Vote leave furious apparently. This is not good for Brexit not matter how much they try to dismiss it
I am not so sure. REMAIN have been using a barrage of statements from authority figures to try to browbeat the ordinary voter. I suspect many may resent this. As a strategy it has been deployed too early, will gain rapidly diminishing returns as time goes on and finally backfire altogether.
... or it could be the Bank of England who know what they are talking about telling it as it is.
If "vapid bilge" is considered by some on PB to be the red line on insults might I suggest that they may have missed some of the more illuminating contributions of SeanT and malcolmg who would think the offending "vapid bilge" to be hugely complimentary.
Tsk ....
IIRC Sean T once called Nick Palmer a "leper's toupee".
At the higher end of thedebate, Nick Palmer seemed to declare himself for the rebels when he said: "I'm not going to support unprincipled opportunism!" It would have been a spectacular rebel gain as Mr Palmer would eat his own feet if the whips asked him to.
Bank of England just announced a vote to leave could ' materially lower growth and lead to sharp falls in the value of the pound. Sky saying never seen such an intervention by the Bank Of England. Vote leave furious apparently. This is not good for Brexit not matter how much they try to dismiss it
It was predicted on here on Sunday that this would come either yesterday or today.
PS. In the short-term it almost certainly will because the Government has announced no post-Brexit contingency plan or alternative, by design to maximise the fear and chance of a Remain vote, so the markets will be temporarily be spooked.
If there is a Leave vote there will be a reshuffle on Friday and emergency meetings of the Cabinet over the weekend to put out a statement on the Monday (suddenly revealing the secret contingency plan) for when the markets open.
A reshuffle? AKA Cameron and Boy George quit in disgrace and go into exile in Tuscany? Or Luxembourg? Or Brussels? One of those places where they are most at home?
Essentially accuses the prime minister of LYING about EU migration stats. Read the details.
Come on LEAVE, pull yer arses out. You could win the referendum today.
Being drowned out by the BBC and the corruption conference
They won't be able to drown it out forever. It's too big. Portes only tweeted ten minutes ago.
It is leave's only hope of gaining traction but now they are caught up in a huge row v ITV and the labour party calling them out in the HOC.
It will probably explode tomorrow, on the newspapers.
Also WTF with "LEAVE's only hope"? Right now, according to the Economist, LEAVE are WINNING
I really don't understand this bizarre complacency from REMAINIACS, is it just whistling in the dark, or are they stupid enough to think they've got this in the bag?
Me neither - it's extraordinary. Are they swallowing their own echo chamber Kool-Aid?
I think it's Denial. Threader after threader on here discussing the crapness and awfulness of the LEAVE campaign. It's borderline psychotic.
They can't believe they might actually lose this, because it is too painful to contemplate; so they are pretending to themselves they are secretly winning, and winning easily, to mask the internal angst.
We'll cope. It's not personal, it's pragmatic. On balance, at the margin I think being a member of the EU is more advantageous to the country than not being a member.
I think there will be value destruction, as would there be with a Labour government. I also think, sadly, that as with a Labour govt's profligacy and its consequences, it will be borne more by those less well off, rather than by those, say, commentating from their Des Primrose Hill Res.
Of course crying "Freedom!" is positively 1992 Sheffield rally Kinnockite in its feelgood factor. But it doesn't mean he wouldn't have damaged the country. So just as when debating with Labourites about how I think it would be bad for the country for there to be a Labour government, I likewise think it will be bad for the country if we Leave.
I respect your view but confess to continuing to be confused by your perspective that we may as well stay in because a Labour government would just increase the headf*ck to the UK economy with the additional powers they'd have post Brexit.
Bank of England just announced a vote to leave could ' materially lower growth and lead to sharp falls in the value of the pound. Sky saying never seen such an intervention by the Bank Of England. Vote leave furious apparently. This is not good for Brexit not matter how much they try to dismiss it
I am not so sure. REMAIN have been using a barrage of statements from authority figures to try to browbeat the ordinary voter. I suspect many may resent this. As a strategy it has been deployed too early, will gain rapidly diminishing returns as time goes on and finally backfire altogether.
I suggest we need a thread on these migration stats. Could they win or lose the vote?
Here's Mr Portes on the Daily Politics.
Says there is definitely some undercounting. Says it is in the "low hundreds of thousands". So that's alright then. Andrew Neil helpfully points out that in 2015 we registered 250,000 EU migrants, though nearly 700,000 got NI numbers.
It's clear now that EU immigrants make a far greater contribution to the economy than we have been told. A far lower percentage are claiming benefits, more are working and paying tax:
do you honestly believe the Tories would have won a majority in 2015 without Cameron as leader?
Against Ed Miliband? Yes!
Not sure they would have done with a leader from the right wing of the party, they really aren't appealing to floating voters, outdated social views and backstabbing are so passe.
As we all know Camerons personal ratings were miles higher than the Conservatives as a party. As a lifelong Tory I despair to see the same stupid mistakes being made, in some cases by the same stupid people.
I sometimes get the impression that left wing Tories would rather see Labour in power than a Conservative government led from the right.
It's those on the left of the Conservatives who've been keeping Labour *out* of power these past six years!
Certainly there'd be some who'd be uncomfortable with a hard-right leadership but then it's just about the case for all factions in all parties that they're uncomfortable with leadership from a different wing. That's multiplied for moderates by the knowledge that not only are the policies not what they'd prefer but invariably they're also a drag on the party's electoral chances.
I'm no Tory so who am I to comment? But why shouldn't a moderate Tory prefer David Miliband to John Redwood?
Thank you! I am the only person in my family that does not know which way to vote. Am I the only person on this website still undecided?
The people in my acquaintance that are plumping for Remain fall into two broad categories:
1) They have family, business or property ties in the EU; 2) Ardent lefties who think the Tories will introduce slave labour;
Just about everyone else is Leave.
We all have limited circles of acquaintance, sadly. Almost everyone I know - friends, family, colleagues, poker circle - are for Remain, the exception being my oldest friend, who is leaning Leave. I don't think any of them fall into your two categories, but a lot of the Remain people are not doing a lot of research and just voting on general political culture preference - they see the underlying question as "Do we want to be part of the European family or do we want to listen to Nigel Farage and Donald Trump?" But a couple are influenced by being nervous of the economic impact of leaving - one Leaver has switched because of that. My Leave-leaning friend just feels "the status quo doesn't work, so let's try something else, we can always rejoin if it doesn't work out" (hmm).
No-one too bothered about the shenanigans in Wales then? I don't blame you all as there is plenty of fun elsewhere but it's quite entertaining. The vote for FM was a tie between Carwyn Jones and Leanne Wood (who got Tory and Ukip support) so we're in a stalemate. Meanwhile Neil Hamilton has enacted a coup in Ukip to make himself leader of the group, much to Mr Farage's disgruntlement. I've no idea what the rules are but some are claiming there could be a re-run of the election.
The Lib Dems did Leanne Wood a massive favour. Plaid would have been utterly ruined if she became First Minister I reckon.
She has to see the implausibility of it. There's no way Labour won't stay in power but the others want as much pressure on them as possible. Fact is they got a third of the vote. They can't walk around like they own the place.
Oh for sure - she must have been a bit worried she'd actually ... get the gig though when it came down to the last couple of votes !
I think she intended for her nomination to fail, it was a squeaky bum victory
Excuse me being thick this morning, but can someone explain to me what ONS are actually saying about net migration?
Migration Watch quote net migration as around 300,000. ONS saying 700,000 EU national insurance registrations in 2015. If emigration is around 300,000, then we have 400,000 as a bare minimum net migration figure (since not everyone coming here is EU or using NI system).
I'm assuming she won't want to do anything to damage all thoses shopping trips to Paris and Milan with your "flexible friend"?
Mrs JackW is firmly REMAIN and has been inducing me to come off the fence with all manner of dastardly temptations that are most certainly unsuitable for publication outside of the PB watershed or the more rarefied atmosphere of certain heavily restrained and shackled Conservative Cabinet members of a Cultural, Media and Sporting inclination.
No-one too bothered about the shenanigans in Wales then? I don't blame you all as there is plenty of fun elsewhere but it's quite entertaining. The vote for FM was a tie between Carwyn Jones and Leanne Wood (who got Tory and Ukip support) so we're in a stalemate. Meanwhile Neil Hamilton has enacted a coup in Ukip to make himself leader of the group, much to Mr Farage's disgruntlement. I've no idea what the rules are but some are claiming there could be a re-run of the election.
The Lib Dems did Leanne Wood a massive favour. Plaid would have been utterly ruined if she became First Minister I reckon.
She has to see the implausibility of it. There's no way Labour won't stay in power but the others want as much pressure on them as possible. Fact is they got a third of the vote. They can't walk around like they own the place.
Bank of England just announced a vote to leave could ' materially lower growth and lead to sharp falls in the value of the pound. Sky saying never seen such an intervention by the Bank Of England. Vote leave furious apparently. This is not good for Brexit not matter how much they try to dismiss it
It was predicted on here on Sunday that this would come either yesterday or today.
PS. In the short-term it almost certainly will because the Government has announced no post-Brexit contingency plan or alternative, by design to maximise the fear and chance of a Remain vote, so the markets will be temporarily be spooked.
If there is a Leave vote there will be a reshuffle on Friday and emergency meetings of the Cabinet over the weekend to put out a statement on the Monday (suddenly revealing the secret contingency plan) for when the markets open.
A reshuffle? AKA Cameron and Boy George quit in disgrace and go into exile in Tuscany? Or Luxembourg? Or Brussels? One of those places where they are most at home?
It's my own view but I think Cameron will first see if he can hang on and take soundings. He will sacrifice Osborne in this. I don't expect an immediate resignation. If he realises he can't stay he will use the Summer to plan out a full Brexit approach and call a leadership election for the Autumn. I think article 50 won't immediately be triggered but will be this year.
I suspect the UK to put out a position statement by Mon June 27th and Germany to respond (practically) the next day, aiming for a practical solution, with the US as well.
A few other EU countries (like France) will do some toy throwing, but real-politik will quickly rule.
The big question is whether the UK Government tries for EEA-EFTA with extra perks on immigration or has to aim bigger.
Bank of England just announced a vote to leave could ' materially lower growth and lead to sharp falls in the value of the pound. Sky saying never seen such an intervention by the Bank Of England. Vote leave furious apparently. This is not good for Brexit not matter how much they try to dismiss it
I am not so sure. REMAIN have been using a barrage of statements from authority figures to try to browbeat the ordinary voter. I suspect many may resent this. As a strategy it has been deployed too early, will gain rapidly diminishing returns as time goes on and finally backfire altogether.
What I find most odd, is the strategy to push more Believe The Establishment - the populace are crying No!!
It's turning into David vs Goliath that I never expected here.
I'm assuming she won't want to do anything to damage all thoses shopping trips to Paris and Milan with your "flexible friend"?
Mrs JackW is firmly REMAIN and has been tempting me to come off the fence with all manner of dastardly temptations that are most certainly unsuitable for publication outside of the PB watershed or the more rarefied atmosphere of certain heavily restrained and shackled Conservative Cabinet members of a Cultural, Media and Sporting inclination.
Essentially accuses the prime s out. You could win the referendum today.
Being drowe corruption conference
They won't be able to drown it out forever. It's too big. Portes only tweeted ten minutes ago.
It is leave's only hope of galling them out in the HOC.
It will probably explode t e they stupid enough to think they've got this in the bag?
Me neither - it's extraordinary. Are they swallowing their own echo chamber Kool-Aid?
I think it's Denial. Threader after threader on here discussing the crapness and awfulness of the LEAVE campaign. It's borderline psychotic.
They can't believe they might actually lose this, because it is too painful to contemplate; so they are pretending to themselves they are secretly winning, and winning easily, to mask the internal angst.
We'll cope. It's not persona
Of course crying "Freedom!" is positively 1992 Sheffield rally Kinnockite in its feelgood factor. But it doesn't mean he wouldn't have damaged the country. So just as when debating with Labourites about how I think it would be bad for the country for there to be a Labour government, I likewise think it will be bad for the country if we Leave.
I respect your view but confess to continuing to be confused by your perspective that we may as well stay in because a Labour government would just increase the headf*ck to the UK economy with the additional powers they'd have post Brexit.
Sorry I might not have been clear. I wasn't relating a Lab govt to Brexit. I was saying how analagously I see Lab as being deletorious to the country, but the country will survive, just on balance in a better state under the Cons.
As for Lab and Leave/Remain. Some Leavers on here are worried that if we stay, Lab will sign us up to any old EU bolleaux. I suppose the obverse of that is that if we leave they will be unfettered in their attempt to screw the country.
If I were a farmer, and we vote Leave, I would be very worried about my prospects under the next Lab govt (rightly or wrongly - agricultural subsidies are of course a source of contention cross-party).
I'm confused now. Yesterday the NIESR were discredited Osborne stooges. Today their chief economist is the one true voice of authority who can single-handedly demonstrate that the ONS are traitors and liars. It's so hard to keep up.
Try harder then.
Ah, I get it. The NIESR are credible on Tuesdays and Thursdays but can be ignored on Mondays and Wednesdays. There's still some doubt about their credibility on Fridays, but the smart money is on this Friday being a good day for believing what they say.
Hard to disagree with this assessment by Matt Chorley in the Red Box email on Vote Leave's reaction.
This feels like a campaign in trouble, desperately thrashing around. Targetting Peston for criticism is the behaviour of a Twitter troll.
I think Vote Leave have a genuine grievance but to put it like that is counterproductive.
@Casino_Royale you are speaking about TSE, the chief Cameron arse licker on PB, where anything Cameron says or does is Holy and beyond reproach.
I'm sure all those who criticised Alastair up thread will be queuing up to criticise this post by MikeK.
Nah - calling someone a sycophant is the usual level of discourse here. Alistair's post was actively unpleasant.
If you think arse licker is on a par with vapid bilge then I have to wonder if English is your first language.
"Arse licker" is crude, certainly, but fairly common parlance for a sycophant.
Dismissing someone's entire oeuvre as "vapid bilge", plus the tone of the posting, put it into a different league.
I find the idea of trying to rank the offensiveness of various postings rather hilarious, but I cannot say I agree with the logic of your assessment that such a comment, even in the context it was delivered, is in a different league to more crude rudeness.
No-one too bothered about the shenanigans in Wales then? I don't blame you all as there is plenty of fun elsewhere but it's quite entertaining. The vote for FM was a tie between Carwyn Jones and Leanne Wood (who got Tory and Ukip support) so we're in a stalemate. Meanwhile Neil Hamilton has enacted a coup in Ukip to make himself leader of the group, much to Mr Farage's disgruntlement. I've no idea what the rules are but some are claiming there could be a re-run of the election.
The Lib Dems did Leanne Wood a massive favour. Plaid would have been utterly ruined if she became First Minister I reckon.
She has to see the implausibility of it. There's no way Labour won't stay in power but the others want as much pressure on them as possible. Fact is they got a third of the vote. They can't walk around like they own the place.
She had supper with the Tories ! That's it.
And conspiring with Neil Hamilton (not suggesting anything underhand though).
I'm confused now. Yesterday the NIESR were discredited Osborne stooges. Today their chief economist is the one true voice of authority who can single-handedly demonstrate that the ONS are traitors and liars. It's so hard to keep up.
Does this guy work for the NIESR?
@faisalislam: Carney warns of a "perhaps sharp" fall in Sterling if UK votes to leave EU
@faisalislam: Carney warns of "materially lower" growth and "notably higher" inflation post-Brexit - Brexit Stagflation, basically.
No-one too bothered about the shenanigans in Wales then? I don't blame you all as there is plenty of fun elsewhere but it's quite entertaining. The vote for FM was a tie between Carwyn Jones and Leanne Wood (who got Tory and Ukip support) so we're in a stalemate. Meanwhile Neil Hamilton has enacted a coup in Ukip to make himself leader of the group, much to Mr Farage's disgruntlement. I've no idea what the rules are but some are claiming there could be a re-run of the election.
28 days to appoint First Minister or new elections. Most likely Jones will have to give way for another labour am
Bank of England just announced a vote to leave could ' materially lower growth and lead to sharp falls in the value of the pound. Sky saying never seen such an intervention by the Bank Of England. Vote leave furious apparently. This is not good for Brexit not matter how much they try to dismiss it
It was predicted on here on Sunday that this would come either yesterday or today.
PS. In the short-term it almost certainly will because the Government has announced no post-Brexit contingency plan or alternative, by design to maximise the fear and chance of a Remain vote, so the markets will be temporarily be spooked.
If there is a Leave vote there will be a reshuffle on Friday and emergency meetings of the Cabinet over the weekend to put out a statement on the Monday (suddenly revealing the secret contingency plan) for when the markets open.
A reshuffle? AKA Cameron and Boy George quit in disgrace and go into exile in Tuscany? Or Luxembourg? Or Brussels? One of those places where they are most at home?
It's my own view but I think Cameron will first see if he can hang on and take soundings. He will sacrifice Osborne in this. I don't expect an immediate resignation. If he realises he can't stay he will use the Summer to plan out a full Brexit approach and call a leadership election for the Autumn. I think article 50 won't immediately be triggered but will be this year.
I suspect the UK to put out a position statement by Mon June 27th and Germany to respond (practically) the next day, aiming for a practical solution, with the US as well.
A few other EU countries (like France) will do some toy throwing, but real-politik will quickly rule.
The big question is whether the UK Government tries for EEA-EFTA with extra perks on immigration or has to aim bigger.
I'm happy with the "sacrificing Osborne" part. Ritual perhaps? Or just to Mr and Mrs Jack W's dungeon?
Totally and utterly unenforceable...In far less than 11 years time this is going to be a total joke.
On Radio 5 this morning they had some people commenting about the expected deal, Noel Edmunds — of all people — spoke the most sense, he pithily explained that many of the future issues this charter is meant to help to deal with are already facts of life.
I didn't really expect big changes from the government, but this is real "head in the sand" stuff.
Excuse me being thick this morning, but can someone explain to me what ONS are actually saying about net migration?
Migration Watch quote net migration as around 300,000. ONS saying 700,000 EU national insurance registrations in 2015. If emigration is around 300,000, then we have 400,000 as a bare minimum net migration figure (since not everyone coming here is EU or using NI system).
From what I understand, a "migrant" could be someone who stays for as little as a month. They might come to find a job, not succeed, run out of money (because they are not entitled to benefits) and go home, for example. They can apply for an NI number during the time they are here, but never put it to use.
Excuse me being thick this morning, but can someone explain to me what ONS are actually saying about net migration?
Migration Watch quote net migration as around 300,000. ONS saying 700,000 EU national insurance registrations in 2015. If emigration is around 300,000, then we have 400,000 as a bare minimum net migration figure (since not everyone coming here is EU or using NI system).
I think the problem now is that immigration from the EU is not necessarily the same as immigration from the rest of the world. If a German resident comes to work for a few months in a UK office of their company and then goes home they will get an NI number but that is not the same as what we would historically call an immigrant.
I'm chuckling at the arse licker versus vapid bilge debate, its the internet ffs, plenty of people change persona with pseudonyms, its harmless fun. I get called all sorts, dish plenty out too, everywhere I've worked and played its been the same. At least there's no physical fights on here, I abhor violence as a result of seeing plenty as a youngster.
Sticks and stones may break my bones and all that.
If "vapid bilge" is considered by some on PB to be the red line on insults might I suggest that they may have missed some of the more illuminating contributions of SeanT and malcolmg who would think the offending "vapid bilge" to be hugely complimentary.
Tsk ....
I must draw your attention to the popularity of * vapid bilge*
WTF? Is Arse Licker no longer de rigueur? How about Tuchus Lacher (yiddish) or other pejoratives such as Brown Noser? The latter was used a lot when I was in the army in the 1950's.
"Take a family with 2 parents and two school age kids.
How much do they have to earn to pay enough tax to be a nett contributor?"
That is a question that I have repeatedly asked and yet found no answer forthcoming. Not just those exact circumstances, of course but generally across a range of life circumstances.
The provision of in work benefits is now so intertwined with earnings it is I think possible for people to be earning reasonable sums, enough to pay income tax, but be net beneficiaries of the Welfare State. However, and perhaps my Google-Fu is weak, but I cannot find the answer and no one on here has been able to provide me with it either.
So the fact that a person is paying tax does not, I suspect, mean they are a nett contributor.
Excuse me being thick this morning, but can someone explain to me what ONS are actually saying about net migration?
Migration Watch quote net migration as around 300,000. ONS saying 700,000 EU national insurance registrations in 2015. If emigration is around 300,000, then we have 400,000 as a bare minimum net migration figure (since not everyone coming here is EU or using NI system).
From what I understand, a "migrant" could be someone who stays for as little as a month. They might come to find a job, not succeed, run out of money (because they are not entitled to benefits) and go home, for example. They can apply for an NI number during the time they are here, but never put it to use.
I think we can now safely conclude that those who believe the Tory civil war will end on 24th June are living in cloud cuckoo land. This country faces a long period of instability and desperately poor government.
Yes. The only hope is that Leavers are more competent and less divisive than would appear to be the case, in the event they win and oust Cameron, but that seem unlikely, and a Remain win will certainly not quell the riotous rumblings.
Oh well, it's not like the country is still in a pretty crappy state or anything...
Excuse me being thick this morning, but can someone explain to me what ONS are actually saying about net migration?
Migration Watch quote net migration as around 300,000. ONS saying 700,000 EU national insurance registrations in 2015. If emigration is around 300,000, then we have 400,000 as a bare minimum net migration figure (since not everyone coming here is EU or using NI system).
From what I understand, a "migrant" could be someone who stays for as little as a month. They might come to find a job, not succeed, run out of money (because they are not entitled to benefits) and go home, for example. They can apply for an NI number during the time they are here, but never put it to use.
They need a job.
Only benefit claiming jobseekers should be given a NINO.
A jobseeker without a job and who isn't claiming benefit should not be given a NINO.
Excuse me being thick this morning, but can someone explain to me what ONS are actually saying about net migration?
Migration Watch quote net migration as around 300,000. ONS saying 700,000 EU national insurance registrations in 2015. If emigration is around 300,000, then we have 400,000 as a bare minimum net migration figure (since not everyone coming here is EU or using NI system).
From what I understand, a "migrant" could be someone who stays for as little as a month. They might come to find a job, not succeed, run out of money (because they are not entitled to benefits) and go home, for example. They can apply for an NI number during the time they are here, but never put it to use.
Poch has signed his contract extension.
Which signals Spurs domination of European football for decades
Bank of England just announced a vote to leave could ' materially lower growth and lead to sharp falls in the value of the pound. Sky saying never seen such an intervention by the Bank Of England. Vote leave furious apparently. This is not good for Brexit not matter how much they try to dismiss it
I am not so sure. REMAIN have been using a barrage of statements from authority figures to try to browbeat the ordinary voter. I suspect many may resent this. As a strategy it has been deployed too early, will gain rapidly diminishing returns as time goes on and finally backfire altogether.
What I find most odd, is the strategy to push more Believe The Establishment - the populace are crying No!!
It's turning into David vs Goliath that I never expected here.
How do characters such as Boris Johnson, Neil Hamilton, Nigel Farage and Nigel Lawson get an opt-out from being considered part of The Establishment?
Excuse me being thick this morning, but can someone explain to me what ONS are actually saying about net migration?
Migration Watch quote net migration as around 300,000. ONS saying 700,000 EU national insurance registrations in 2015. If emigration is around 300,000, then we have 400,000 as a bare minimum net migration figure (since not everyone coming here is EU or using NI system).
From what I understand, a "migrant" could be someone who stays for as little as a month. They might come to find a job, not succeed, run out of money (because they are not entitled to benefits) and go home, for example. They can apply for an NI number during the time they are here, but never put it to use.
Poch has signed his contract extension.
Which signals Spurs domination of European football for decades
No-one too bothered about the shenanigans in Wales then? I don't blame you all as there is plenty of fun elsewhere but it's quite entertaining. The vote for FM was a tie between Carwyn Jones and Leanne Wood (who got Tory and Ukip support) so we're in a stalemate. Meanwhile Neil Hamilton has enacted a coup in Ukip to make himself leader of the group, much to Mr Farage's disgruntlement. I've no idea what the rules are but some are claiming there could be a re-run of the election.
The Lib Dems did Leanne Wood a massive favour. Plaid would have been utterly ruined if she became First Minister I reckon.
She has to see the implausibility of it. There's no way Labour won't stay in power but the others want as much pressure on them as possible. Fact is they got a third of the vote. They can't walk around like they own the place.
Oh for sure - she must have been a bit worried she'd actually ... get the gig though when it came down to the last couple of votes !
I think she intended for her nomination to fail, it was a squeaky bum victory
Given that it was an alphabetic Roll Call vote - as I understand it the last 2 votes were Kirsty Williams, and then Leanne Wood - so both she and the Lib Dem had the advantage (or not) of seeing the lay of the land prior to voting...
do you honestly believe the Tories would have won a majority in 2015 without Cameron as leader?
Against Ed Miliband? Yes!
Not sure they would have done with a leader from the right wing of the party, they really aren't appealing to floating voters, outdated social views and backstabbing are so passe.
As we all know Camerons personal ratings were miles higher than the Conservatives as a party. As a lifelong Tory I despair to see the same stupid mistakes being made, in some cases by the same stupid people.
I sometimes get the impression that left wing Tories would rather see Labour in power than a Conservative government led from the right.
It's those on the left of the Conservatives who've been keeping Labour *out* of power these past six years!
Certainly there'd be some who'd be uncomfortable with a hard-right leadership but then it's just about the case for all factions in all parties that they're uncomfortable with leadership from a different wing. That's multiplied for moderates by the knowledge that not only are the policies not what they'd prefer but invariably they're also a drag on the party's electoral chances.
I'm no Tory so who am I to comment? But why shouldn't a moderate Tory prefer David Miliband to John Redwood?
1. Because their instincts as to what the role of the individual and the state should be still define the fundamental difference between a conservative and a social democrat.
2. Because Miliband would be in hoc to Corbyn and co whereas Redwood would be reliant on the votes of Cameroons.
Excuse me being thick this morning, but can someone explain to me what ONS are actually saying about net migration?
Migration Watch quote net migration as around 300,000. ONS saying 700,000 EU national insurance registrations in 2015. If emigration is around 300,000, then we have 400,000 as a bare minimum net migration figure (since not everyone coming here is EU or using NI system).
The narrative seems to be that the extra people showing up as registering for NI neither immigrate nor emigrate officially (immigration taking 12 months to achieve in a statistical sense and emigration being dependent on immigration having taken place) but are merely flitting through. Nevertheless, they are here for some period of time and must have some bearing on public services / housing, though whether that anywhere near 400000 people's worth is dependent on their average duration of stay.
I think you mean the once and future Leader, Gill.
Not my tweet, but it wouldn't make sense for Hamilton to jump now he's back in the first class carriage of the gravy train (much as Nige might want him to).
Bank of England just announced a vote to leave could ' materially lower growth and lead to sharp falls in the value of the pound. Sky saying never seen such an intervention by the Bank Of England. Vote leave furious apparently. This is not good for Brexit not matter how much they try to dismiss it
I am not so sure. REMAIN have been using a barrage of statements from authority figures to try to browbeat the ordinary voter. I suspect many may resent this. As a strategy it has been deployed too early, will gain rapidly diminishing returns as time goes on and finally backfire altogether.
What I find most odd, is the strategy to push more Believe The Establishment - the populace are crying No!!
It's turning into David vs Goliath that I never expected here.
How do characters such as Boris Johnson, Neil Hamilton, Nigel Farage and Nigel Lawson get an opt-out from being considered part of The Establishment?
If the Welsh reelection were re-run, not that I expect it to (or even if it is a possibility, but it was raised as such on here) then I'd presume Labour would romp home? They're clearly still the most popular party in Wales, and having been denied the FM position and a new election forced, I find it hard to believe any wavering or stay at home support would not come out to see them properly home next time, with a dash of help from thos annoyed the others ganged up to prevent them holding power.
Bank of England just announced a vote to leave could ' materially lower growth and lead to sharp falls in the value of the pound. Sky saying never seen such an intervention by the Bank Of England. Vote leave furious apparently. This is not good for Brexit not matter how much they try to dismiss it
I am not so sure. REMAIN have been using a barrage of statements from authority figures to try to browbeat the ordinary voter. I suspect many may resent this. As a strategy it has been deployed too early, will gain rapidly diminishing returns as time goes on and finally backfire altogether.
What I find most odd, is the strategy to push more Believe The Establishment - the populace are crying No!!
It's turning into David vs Goliath that I never expected here.
How do characters such as Boris Johnson, Neil Hamilton, Nigel Farage and Nigel Lawson get an opt-out from being considered part of The Establishment?
First from Brasenose = establishment Upper Second from Balliol = plucky outsider
@faisalislam: Carney says Brexit "could possibly lead to a formal recession"
Pah. What would he know...
1) Industrial Production is already in recession; 2) Is he still waiting for unemployment to drop below 6%?
The problem for leave is that the ordinary voter will listen to these economic arguments. Voters are not like us on this forum and even leave must agree that today has not been a good day for them
Hard to disagree with this assessment by Matt Chorley in the Red Box email on Vote Leave's reaction.
This feels like a campaign in trouble, desperately thrashing around. Targetting Peston for criticism is the behaviour of a Twitter troll.
I think Vote Leave have a genuine grievance but to put it like that is counterproductive.
@Casino_Royale you are speaking about TSE, the chief Cameron arse licker on PB, where anything Cameron says or does is Holy and beyond reproach.
I'm sure all those who criticised Alastair up thread will be queuing up to criticise this post by MikeK.
Nah - calling someone a sycophant is the usual level of discourse here. Alistair's post was actively unpleasant.
If you think arse licker is on a par with vapid bilge then I have to wonder if English is your first language.
"Arse licker" is crude, certainly, but fairly common parlance for a sycophant.
Dismissing someone's entire oeuvre as "vapid bilge", plus the tone of the posting, put it into a different league.
Bloody hell, even angels couldn't dance on the pinhead you're standing on right now.
But you're fine with me in future calling all Leavers, Farage arse lickers?
PS - Would a sycophant have written this?
The [Zac] campaign may be a pointer to the forthcoming EU referendum, with both sides already engaging in ludicrous project fear campaigns, where it feels the choice is down to for voting for economic Armageddon if we vote to Leave or having 77 million Turks moving to the UK shortly after we vote to Remain.
Memo to both camps, tone down the hyperbole, criticise your opponents with plausible criticisms and not make it appear that victory for the other side was foretold in The Book of Revelation. A bit more hope and a little less fear please.
I don't think you are a sycophant. I don't even think you are an "arse-licker". But we expect that kind of commentary from @MikeK.
@AlistairMeeks should be held to a higher standard - as was the point of my original post. It was also extraordinary unpleasant to dismiss everything that another post writes as being worthless.
@JournoStephen: If by "critical friend" you mean someone who runs into your burning house and punches you in the face, then yes. https://t.co/x9bJ6dG1jD
Over the last year Jonathan Portes, principle research fellow at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, asked the Government for more detail of National Insurance numbers but his requests were rejected on the grounds it might prejudice the outcome of the referendum.
"Take a family with 2 parents and two school age kids.
How much do they have to earn to pay enough tax to be a nett contributor?"
That is a question that I have repeatedly asked and yet found no answer forthcoming. Not just those exact circumstances, of course but generally across a range of life circumstances.
The provision of in work benefits is now so intertwined with earnings it is I think possible for people to be earning reasonable sums, enough to pay income tax, but be net beneficiaries of the Welfare State. However, and perhaps my Google-Fu is weak, but I cannot find the answer and no one on here has been able to provide me with it either.
So the fact that a person is paying tax does not, I suspect, mean they are a nett contributor.
Of course they pay Vat and if they own their house and move every 10 years or do they will pay several thousand pounds a year on average in stamp duty. And if they die they may pay inheritance tax and if they don't their life insurance company will pay tax on the profit it makes.
Bank of England confirm possibility of technical recession in the event of Brexit. Never mind 'everyone is wrong'.
Does he also confirm the possibility of technical recession in the event of Remain? (Which is clearly a possibility - I would go as far as to say a reasonably strong one at the moment given current Debt positioning/overhang, Industrial Producation numbers etc. and Europe continueing to be a bit of a basket case)
If the Welsh reelection were re-run, not that I expect it to (or even if it is a possibility, but it was raised as such on here) then I'd presume Labour would romp home? They're clearly still the most popular party in Wales, and having been denied the FM position and a new election forced, I find it hard to believe any wavering or stay at home support would not come out to see them properly home next time, with a dash of help from thos annoyed the others ganged up to prevent them holding power.
I doubt it - labour are not popular having been in power too long and failed on the NHS and Education
Over the last year Jonathan Portes, principle research fellow at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, asked the Government for more detail of National Insurance numbers but his requests were rejected on the grounds it might prejudice the outcome of the referendum.
That's a nice easy figure LEAVE should be shouting at people, daily, until June 23.
Probably. I've felt all along Leave has the advantage because their messages, for the most part, can be simple, eye catching and fit with what a lot of people think is the case anyway (too much money per week to Brussells, too many immigrants etc) - Remain can dispute those figures used, perhaps even correctly, but usually has to get technical to do so, which undermines the effort, and even when put in context a lot of people won't like the new figure. Many don't like £350 million per week to the EU, or whatever is claimed. But if you argue its £150million, many still won't like it, and the same applies to immigration arguments.
Comments
That's a lot of time, effort and resources & an uncertain future payback from the immigrants.
'The Government has said 'X'. The truth is 'XX' as indisputably shown by 'Y'.
It needs to be relatable and understandable. Then this could be damaging.
It caused a fit of the vapours among the Tories4Palmer group and had Mike Smithson giving some of his old wigs away for medical research.
It's not true.
1) They have family, business or property ties in the EU;
2) Ardent lefties who think the Tories will introduce slave labour;
Just about everyone else is Leave.
How is Mrs JackW going to vote?
I'm assuming she won't want to do anything to damage all thoses shopping trips to Paris and Milan with your "flexible friend"?
3 million jobs vs 3 million immigrants @Bodie
I think there will be value destruction, as would there be with a Labour government. I also think, sadly, that as with a Labour govt's profligacy and its consequences, it will be borne more by those less well off, rather than by those, say, commentating from their Des Primrose Hill Res.
Of course crying "Freedom!" is positively 1992 Sheffield rally Kinnockite in its feelgood factor. But it doesn't mean he wouldn't have damaged the country. So just as when debating with Labourites about how I think it would be bad for the country for there to be a Labour government, I likewise think it will be bad for the country if we Leave.
I think the whole left-right measure has become useless, if it ever was of use. Personally I am quite "left" on some economic issues and would agree with @Southam_Observer, @Alanbrooke and even @NickPalmer. On others I am much more in line with traditional Conservatives such as @Charles. On other issues I vary from agreeing with, the hated by many, Farage at one end and the likes of Mr. Observer at the other. I suspect many people, other than the complete tribal loyalists, have a similar spread of views. The whole idea that people can be pigeon holed into a category seems daft to me.
Lucky none of their number succumb to any hyperbole
@thomasknox: Incendiary. The @vote_leave campaign could win the referendum, today, with this. If they weren't so cack-handed. https://t.co/e67T2XzNXS
https://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/730708096033685504
Cameron is reaping what he sowed here.
Certainly there'd be some who'd be uncomfortable with a hard-right leadership but then it's just about the case for all factions in all parties that they're uncomfortable with leadership from a different wing. That's multiplied for moderates by the knowledge that not only are the policies not what they'd prefer but invariably they're also a drag on the party's electoral chances.
If there is a Leave vote there will be a reshuffle on Friday and emergency meetings of the Cabinet over the weekend to put out a statement on the Monday (suddenly revealing the secret contingency plan) for when the markets open.
Oh, wait...
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/commentators/simon-carr/the-sketch-loyalists-belittled-by-opportunism-and-argument-845241.html
How much do they have to earn to pay enough tax to be a nett contributor?
I think she intended for her nomination to fail, it was a squeaky bum victory
Migration Watch quote net migration as around 300,000. ONS saying 700,000 EU national insurance registrations in 2015. If emigration is around 300,000, then we have 400,000 as a bare minimum net migration figure (since not everyone coming here is EU or using NI system).
I suspect the UK to put out a position statement by Mon June 27th and Germany to respond (practically) the next day, aiming for a practical solution, with the US as well.
A few other EU countries (like France) will do some toy throwing, but real-politik will quickly rule.
The big question is whether the UK Government tries for EEA-EFTA with extra perks on immigration or has to aim bigger.
It's turning into David vs Goliath that I never expected here.
As for Lab and Leave/Remain. Some Leavers on here are worried that if we stay, Lab will sign us up to any old EU bolleaux. I suppose the obverse of that is that if we leave they will be unfettered in their attempt to screw the country.
If I were a farmer, and we vote Leave, I would be very worried about my prospects under the next Lab govt (rightly or wrongly - agricultural subsidies are of course a source of contention cross-party).
@faisalislam: Carney warns of a "perhaps sharp" fall in Sterling if UK votes to leave EU
@faisalislam: Carney warns of "materially lower" growth and "notably higher" inflation post-Brexit - Brexit Stagflation, basically.
No?
Phew, we can ignore him then...
That would be quite superb politics
Funny that.
I didn't really expect big changes from the government, but this is real "head in the sand" stuff.
Sticks and stones may break my bones and all that.
"Take a family with 2 parents and two school age kids.
How much do they have to earn to pay enough tax to be a nett contributor?"
That is a question that I have repeatedly asked and yet found no answer forthcoming. Not just those exact circumstances, of course but generally across a range of life circumstances.
The provision of in work benefits is now so intertwined with earnings it is I think possible for people to be earning reasonable sums, enough to pay income tax, but be net beneficiaries of the Welfare State. However, and perhaps my Google-Fu is weak, but I cannot find the answer and no one on here has been able to provide me with it either.
So the fact that a person is paying tax does not, I suspect, mean they are a nett contributor.
I assume this is Gill rather than Hamilton.
Oh well, it's not like the country is still in a pretty crappy state or anything...
Bloody Taffy yellow peril spoil sports.
Pah. What would he know...
Only benefit claiming jobseekers should be given a NINO.
A jobseeker without a job and who isn't claiming benefit should not be given a NINO.
2. Because Miliband would be in hoc to Corbyn and co whereas Redwood would be reliant on the votes of Cameroons.
2) Is he still waiting for unemployment to drop below 6%?
3) From Markit's PMI's
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-05-11/turkey-gives-europe-ultimatum-unless-visas-are-removed-we-will-unleash-refugees
Upper Second from Balliol = plucky outsider
A little earlier than I thought. I thought this'd be saved for the final fortnight.
When someone decides to promote themselves as a guru - especially on a political nerd site - it's likely to end in OMG
@JournoStephen: If by "critical friend" you mean someone who runs into your burning house and punches you in the face, then yes. https://t.co/x9bJ6dG1jD
Over the last year Jonathan Portes, principle research fellow at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, asked the Government for more detail of National Insurance numbers but his requests were rejected on the grounds it might prejudice the outcome of the referendum.
Yes, it might ...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/12/extra-15-million-eu-migrants-came-to-britain-over-last-five-year/
https://twitter.com/kayaburgess/status/730720381770825730