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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Exactly six weeks to go to the day that Britain decides on its future in Europe
After a period when referendum polls were coming out almost everyday there’s suddenly been a lull in the number of polls being published. It is now May 12th and just three surveys have come out where the fieldwork has taken place in May. All of them have been online. The last phone poll was completed on April 26th.
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http://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-1.557024
I was led here by the glorious BBC (a podcast), by the way
The media are talking to themselves about some BBC changes that may or not be happening [I can't tell who's in charge after all of Osborne's meddling]. And ITV has bizarrely invited Farage to go against the PM in the debates.
Farage isn't a big wheel in the official Leave campaign. It's obviously inappropriate to stick him up against Cameron who is leading the official Remain team.
I don't mind Farage speaking and debating - but ITV shouldn't be playing around like this, and certainly shouldn't be dancing to Number 10, if that was indeed the case.
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Hello-Europe-Chris-West-ebook/dp/B00WZ901E4/ref=zg_bs_362335031_74
In any case, given the way Farage took Clegg apart, I reckon he'll do a good job.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p03t0m9g
"The Swedish Ambassador's Guide to Eurovision"
Would any Leave supporter, however, care to try to defend the Vote Leave response to this development?
http://twitter.com/RobDotHutton/status/730523672306429956/photo/1
Mad conspiracy theories and vague threats against a national broadcaster? It's not a good look.
I'm not sure what to make of ITV going for Farage. If it is the case that Cameron wanted it to be him rather than Boris or Gove, that's quite interesting. ITV have said they will have another programme where they give Vote Leave time on TV, which probably gets them out of any legal trouble.
Cameron being unwilling to debate head to head isn't a move I expected. I guess his mojo has taken a bit of a knock over the last couple of weeks. He's certainly piling up the *wrong sort of coverage*.
It's not a conspiracy - it's clearly a commercial decision by ITV because they want "the big debate". But it's inappropriate
This was some time ago, mind, but I don't think it was an especially large leap to believe he/she/they were members of the Kremlin social media team.
Please delete this post
Mr Meeks - you can, and should, be better than this
Vote Leave is the official campaign - it should be able to appoint its representative to the major debates of the referendum.
EDIT and a bonus hissy fit before 7am. I am blessed.
They made, as you said, a commercial decision.
You are proposing that an independent, commercial organisation should have abandoned those principles in favour of a political decision.
When politicians are dictating who can and can't appear on our screens that's a bad sign.
Fortunately, I just listen to the voices in my head. Much safer.
They really do seem to think he is a loser for them
They want to produce a show - for good commercial reasons - that could have a material influence on the outcome of the referendum. As a result they need to engage with the official campaigns.
(It may also have escaped your notice, but in accepting the PM's refusal to appear against anyone but Farage, ITV is allowing one politician to dictate who appears on screens)
I'd have thought Farage, Hannan/Boris and Gisela Stuart v. Clegg/Farron, Alan Johnson/Chukka Ummna and Osborne/Crabb would be fair. You could throw businessmen on each side too, if you liked: Theo Paphitis and Karen Brady, for example.
The trouble is that, without having a Conservative on both sides, the debate will tend to skew Conservative viewers in favour of the side that does.
I expect we're heading for something similar to GE2015: a 7-8-9 way debate with everyone on stage again, plus a few heavy interview and audience Q&A again.
The debates - as we saw in the 2010 and 2015 election - can have a material impact on the overall campaign. That makes them a different category.
Personally I think the shape and participants should be regulated.
On the other hand, OGH will rightly be proud his site has been targeted in this fashion.
They want to produce a show - for good commercial reasons. That's it. They are a commercial organisation, that made a commercial decision.
"could have a material influence on the outcome of the referendum. As a result they need to engage with the official campaigns."
You still want them to make a political decision. That's nonsense That's nonsense. It may also have escaped your notice but Gove is appearing on our screens, against the PM, on another channel.
Are you really so scared that Farage is going to cock it up, again?
It's hard to escape the conclusion that, amongst mainstream media broadcasters, they (still) view Leaving the European as an eccentric and fringe position, and because they think Farage is its spiritual leader (and he's good audiovisual copy) he's the token individual they must occasionally be obliged to invite to vent about it.
The fact the population is split 50:50 - and its debate neutrality, not party political neutrality - that should be their remit here to properly inform the public seems to escape them.
Strangely, not feeling the love this morning...
Bit better than that 3 lions one
Really, if you haven't worked out their plan, there's no hope for you.
My gob has literally been smacked.
Debates have become part of the landscape - they need to be treated in the same way as PEB et al.
One of the most prominent figures on their side of the argument is getting the highest profile coverage possible and their reaction?
WE NEED REGULATION TO PREVENT THIS HAPPENING !!!
If ITV wants a set-piece debate between Leave and Remain, that is absolutely their right. But if it's going to market it as such, it needs to have buy-in from the two sides. It would be misleading to get two blokes from down the pub to put the case - or one formal representative and some other makeweight. Once they've issued the invites to the two sides, it's for the campaigns to nominate someone. If one side declines to participate, then, perhaps, there is a case for the media organisation to come up with an appropriate substitute (with only two sides, the option of empty-chairing can't apply).
Farage is the leader of UKIP: he should absolutely have a role in the media coverage of the referendum on the subject his party was created for. But he is not the head of Leave and unless appointed otherwise, is not an official spokesman for it. The Conservative Party is officially neutral in the debate so he shouldn't be debating Cameron as leader of that - as Cameron cannot speak on behalf of his party.
Either we have rules about election coverage or we don't. Given that we do have them, it's not necessarily open to ITV, or anyone else, to simply make 'a commercial decision' on an election programme.
I am not aware that Gove is appearing head-to-head against the PM on another channel - perhaps you can provide details as I am sure that a lot of people on here would like to watch it
But you are not able to rise above tribal cheering and think through the implications of ITVs decision for future elections, so I can't be bothered to waste any more time on your education
Run along.
When an opponent tells them to "run along"...
"He's a good campaigner, he won the last TV debates, he is on our side, we have the best arguments, we need regulation to keep him off TV..."
What exactly is the Brexiteers problem?
That is an extraordinary statement from a Leave spokesman on so many levels.
Threatening broadcasters because they do not do as you wish is a really bad look. And I wonder how delighted Dave is that Leave is now saying he is on his way out having, previously said he cannot be trusted on economic issues.
You responded with a point that is factually correct, but utterly irrelevant.
http://www.ncpolitics.uk/2016/05/11-eu-referendum-update.html/
@rosschawkins: UKIP say Vote Leave are threatening court action to stop Farage appearing with PM on ITV
I suppose if we had regulation to stop Nigel Farage appearing on TV, we wouldn't need court action...
(have I missed the eurovision thread, btw?)
PS my bilge is the vapidest, and I will fight anyone who suggests otherwise
Its fair to say he's not universally admired on here, but there is nobody better versed on the EU, if he's on song he'll destroy Cameron. His tactic will be to goad him into his Flashman act and point out the EU is all about the cabal between govt and big business which has compressed the wages of the lower paid.
You can argue its high risk, I'm sure some Leavers are nervous but he'll be as well briefed and prepared as anybody, one slip up from Cameron and Nigel will nail him. I actually believe its Cameron taking the bigger risk and indicative of the mood in Remain, if they were confident of winning he'd wave Nigel away, massive roll of the dice by Cameron.
Last night OGH on PB he did say
I'm seventy, Hip Hip Horray
My Looks and Hair May Have Gone
Genetics will come for Robert Smithson
They should put Gerry Adams up for Remain - that will create some controversy. The important thing for Remain is that as many people as possible see the debate.
Whose predictions just clogged up the site
and though PB laughed
and said he was daft
they shut up when the bugger was right
An alternative view is that Remain have taken the view that reinforcing the association of leave with Farage is good for them.
You misunderestimate Dave at your peril. He is PM and has had everyone throw rubbish his way on every subject from the EU to the spare room subsidy. He is an operator. Nige has rarely not had to answer a tricky question, or to evade a potentially dangerous line of reasoning because he always wants to answer as many EU questions as possible, and usually knows more than his interviewer. Dave is the master at interviewing, ie being a politician, which is more important than being the master of his subject.
Nige is excellent on his day and great fun to watch, and has the nation shouting "gertcha" from its armchair, but Cam he ain't.
The more I think about this the more positive I get
It is not easy to determine which way things are going. I don't think that either side has really cut through. The cries to authority by Remain persist. Are they going to overwhelm by sheer weight of numbers or fall into ridicule? The lack of love on the Remain side for the EU is becoming increasingly apparent. The problem is that an argument that they want a reformed EU immediately runs into Cameron's largely failed efforts in that respect. They also really struggle with the direction of travel for the EU which they don't much like either.
Leave have become somewhat more coherent in fixing a position that focuses on immigration. The EFTA type options within the single market seem to have been abandoned although the terms of our relationship with the EU post departure remain an inevitable mystery (since it is a matter for negotiation). That frankly disappoints people like me who wanted to reduce the risks of Leave by remaining in a close relationship with the EU with access to the Single Market, even if that proved to be an intermediate step. Does it make Leave look more risky and thus reinforce the cries to authority? I think it does but that may well just reflect my own wishes on the matter.
My gut feel is that the TV debates may well prove decisive. There will be some break through moment, like when Miliband denied that the previous Labour government had spent too much, where a lot of people will suddenly think, no, that can't be right. No wonder both sides are so nervous about them.