If the Welsh reelection were re-run, not that I expect it to (or even if it is a possibility, but it was raised as such on here) then I'd presume Labour would romp home? They're clearly still the most popular party in Wales, and having been denied the FM position and a new election forced, I find it hard to believe any wavering or stay at home support would not come out to see them properly home next time, with a dash of help from thos annoyed the others ganged up to prevent them holding power.
I doubt it - labour are not popular having been in power too long and failed on the NHS and Education
But they are still the most popular single party in Wales, clearly. And having everyone else gang up on them surely doesn't look good in this particular instance.
If the Welsh reelection were re-run, not that I expect it to (or even if it is a possibility, but it was raised as such on here) then I'd presume Labour would romp home? They're clearly still the most popular party in Wales, and having been denied the FM position and a new election forced, I find it hard to believe any wavering or stay at home support would not come out to see them properly home next time, with a dash of help from thos annoyed the others ganged up to prevent them holding power.
I doubt it - labour are not popular having been in power too long and failed on the NHS and Education
Leanne would see a swift reversal of her Rhondda result.
@faisalislam: Carney says Brexit "could possibly lead to a formal recession"
Pah. What would he know...
1) Industrial Production is already in recession; 2) Is he still waiting for unemployment to drop below 6%?
The problem for leave is that the ordinary voter will listen to these economic arguments. Voters are not like us on this forum and even leave must agree that today has not been a good day for them
I have a feeling that a lot of people will think that £13bn given to the EU might be money better spent on the British in the event of a recession.
"Take a family with 2 parents and two school age kids.
How much do they have to earn to pay enough tax to be a nett contributor?"
The figure for your example is around £35,00 - £ 37,000.gross salary.
'How much we give the state in tax – and how much we get back ... www.telegraph.co.uk › Finance › Personal Finance › Tax
15 Feb 2014 - Benefits Britain: how much do you pay in, and how much do you get ... out of about 30 million income tax payers, paid 30pc of all income tax. ... who are net contributors to the state and who are the net beneficiaries. ..... And people with a household income of £10,300 draw out a net amount of £9,539, giving ...
Bank of England confirm possibility of technical recession in the event of Brexit. Never mind 'everyone is wrong'.
It may have already started tbh, none of the indicators are looking good. Though how much this is to do with Brexit is unclear. The whole of Europe is slowing down though, plus Asia and the US. Describing US Q1 growth as anaemic would be generous (0.5% annualised, which is 0.1% translated to here).
If the Welsh reelection were re-run, not that I expect it to (or even if it is a possibility, but it was raised as such on here) then I'd presume Labour would romp home? They're clearly still the most popular party in Wales, and having been denied the FM position and a new election forced, I find it hard to believe any wavering or stay at home support would not come out to see them properly home next time, with a dash of help from thos annoyed the others ganged up to prevent them holding power.
I doubt it - labour are not popular having been in power too long and failed on the NHS and Education
It's an interesting speculation, and I have no inside knowledge whatever. But in general if losers force a rerun, they don't do well, so I suspect kle4 is right- to the extent that I think Labour should be setting severe conditions with a view to either getting a free hand or bringing an election about.
I'm chuckling at the arse licker versus vapid bilge debate, its the internet ffs, plenty of people change persona with pseudonyms, its harmless fun. I get called all sorts, dish plenty out too, everywhere I've worked and played its been the same. At least there's no physical fights on here, I abhor violence as a result of seeing plenty as a youngster.
Sticks and stones may break my bones and all that.
do you honestly believe the Tories would have won a majority in 2015 without Cameron as leader?
Against Ed Miliband? Yes!
Not sure they would have done with a leader from the right wing of the party, they really aren't appealing to floating voters, outdated social views and backstabbing are so passe.
As we all know Camerons personal ratings were miles higher than the Conservatives as a party. As a lifelong Tory I despair to see the same stupid mistakes being made, in some cases by the same stupid people.
I sometimes get the impression that left wing Tories would rather see Labour in power than a Conservative government led from the right.
It's those on the left of the Conservatives who've been keeping Labour *out* of power these past six years!
Certainly there'd be some who'd be uncomfortable with a hard-right leadership but then it's just about the case for all factions in all parties that they're uncomfortable with leadership from a different wing. That's multiplied for moderates by the knowledge that not only are the policies not what they'd prefer but invariably they're also a drag on the party's electoral chances.
I'm no Tory so who am I to comment? But why shouldn't a moderate Tory prefer David Miliband to John Redwood?
I'd certainly like to see the back of some of the right wingers from the Tory Party in the same way that I'm sure some Labour voters would like to see the back of Corbyn et al.
I suggest we need a thread on these migration stats. Could they win or lose the vote?
Here's Mr Portes on the Daily Politics.
Says there is definitely some undercounting. Says it is in the "low hundreds of thousands". So that's alright then. Andrew Neil helpfully points out that in 2015 we registered 250,000 EU migrants, though nearly 700,000 got NI numbers.
It's clear now that EU immigrants make a far greater contribution to the economy than we have been told. A far lower percentage are claiming benefits, more are working and paying tax:
Take a family with 2 parents and two school age kids.
How much do they have to earn to pay enough tax to be a nett contributor?
Depends on whether a child breaks an arm, woman has to have wisdom teeth removed and mysterious head pains, man has problem with back .... like a Polish family I know. Others have had no health problems and must be net contributors.
@faisalislam: Carney says Brexit "could possibly lead to a formal recession"
Pah. What would he know...
1) Industrial Production is already in recession; 2) Is he still waiting for unemployment to drop below 6%? 3) From Markit's PMI's
“The PMI surveys are collectively indicating a nearstalling of economic growth, down from 0.4% in the first quarter to just 0.1% in April.
I commented on those PMI figures a week or two ago. If they are in anyway correct , and @Surbiton and @AlanBrooke have both posted on here over the past few months giving evidence that they are, then it looks like this growth cycle has peaked and we might be heading for a recession, perhaps in early 2017 and nothing to do with a possible Brexit vote, though maybe quite a lot to do with problems in the Eurozone.
If that is what happens then we will be going into a recession with a £1.5 trillion (ish) debt, a £70bn p.a. structural deficit, interest rates at near zero, and years of QE behind us. That should finally put paid to any thoughts that Osborne has been a "near-perfect chancellor".
News Management to downplay the news on 1.5 million more EU migrants here. 1. Schedule the BBC Charter News for same day. 2. Do it on same day Bank of England Governor says that Brexit carries risk of recession.
We are getting royally shafted by this Govt.
Menawhile I have deliverers for Vote Leave able to deliver to >4,000 homes and counting.
Hard to disagree with this assessment by Matt Chorley in the Red Box email on Vote Leave's reaction.
This feels like a campaign in trouble, desperately thrashing around. Targetting Peston for criticism is the behaviour of a Twitter troll.
I think Vote Leave have a genuine grievance but to put it like that is counterproductive.
@Casino_Royale you are speaking about TSE, the chief Cameron arse licker on PB, where anything Cameron says or does is Holy and beyond reproach.
I'm sure all those who criticised Alastair up thread will be queuing up to criticise this post by MikeK.
Nah - calling someone a sycophant is the usual level of discourse here. Alistair's post was actively unpleasant.
If you think arse licker is on a par with vapid bilge then I have to wonder if English is your first language.
"Arse licker" is crude, certainly, but fairly common parlance for a sycophant.
Dismissing someone's entire oeuvre as "vapid bilge", plus the tone of the posting, put it into a different league.
Bloody hell, even angels couldn't dance on the pinhead you're standing on right now.
But you're fine with me in future calling all Leavers, Farage arse lickers?
PS - Would a sycophant have written this?
The [Zac] campaign may be a pointer to the forthcoming EU referendum
I don't think you are a sycophant. I don't even think you are an "arse-licker". But we expect that kind of commentary from @MikeK.
@AlistairMeeks should be held to a higher standard - as was the point of my original post. It was also extraordinary unpleasant to dismiss everything that another post writes as being worthless.
@faisalislam: Carney says Brexit "could possibly lead to a formal recession"
Pah. What would he know...
1) Industrial Production is already in recession; 2) Is he still waiting for unemployment to drop below 6%?
The problem for leave is that the ordinary voter will listen to these economic arguments. Voters are not like us on this forum and even leave must agree that today has not been a good day for them
Nonsense. The migration thing easily balances out the BoE warning. We've already had endless economic threats, but this info about EU immigrants is new. The LEAVE internal debate spat is unedifying, but trumped by Kettles and Toasters. I'd say LEAVE is marginally edging it, as of 12:57, today. And now I must do some BLOODY WORK. Anon.
Bank of England is dominating the BBC news agenda over immigration.
If the Welsh reelection were re-run, not that I expect it to (or even if it is a possibility, but it was raised as such on here) then I'd presume Labour would romp home? They're clearly still the most popular party in Wales, and having been denied the FM position and a new election forced, I find it hard to believe any wavering or stay at home support would not come out to see them properly home next time, with a dash of help from thos annoyed the others ganged up to prevent them holding power.
I doubt it - labour are not popular having been in power too long and failed on the NHS and Education
But they are still the most popular single party in Wales, clearly. And having everyone else gang up on them surely doesn't look good in this particular instance.
Agreed. I don't quite know what the opposition parties are up to. There quite obviously isn't a viable alternative to Labour. Assuming that Labour don't put forward proposals that could lead to a coalition, then Plaid and WCon would be better off abstaining on the First minister vote and then opposing policies that Labour come up with as and when the opportunities present.
Bank of England confirm possibility of technical recession in the event of Brexit. Never mind 'everyone is wrong'.
It may have already started tbh, none of the indicators are looking good. Though how much this is to do with Brexit is unclear. The whole of Europe is slowing down though, plus Asia and the US. Describing US Q1 growth as anaemic would be generous (0.5% annualised, which is 0.1% translated to here).
Osborne changed his line in early January, that looks to be when the first signs became known. Yet somehow against this "trend" we had from NIESR the other day a forecast for 2017 of circa 2.7% gdp growth in 2017 (with REMAIN) which seemed to ignore the trends of 2016.... shurely schome mishtake?
If "vapid bilge" is considered by some on PB to be the red line on insults might I suggest that they may have missed some of the more illuminating contributions of SeanT and malcolmg who would think the offending "vapid bilge" to be hugely complimentary.
Tsk ....
I must draw your attention to the popularity of * vapid bilge*
WTF? Is Arse Licker no longer de rigueur? How about Tuchus Lacher (yiddish) or other pejoratives such as Brown Noser? The latter was used a lot when I was in the army in the 1950's.
I'm not prone to citing How Clever I Am threads.
Everytime I see such posts, my immediate reaction is "Insecure Bugger"
Why would anyone tell others how Big & Clever they were, unless they wanted attention?
Bank of England confirm possibility of technical recession in the event of Brexit. Never mind 'everyone is wrong'.
It may have already started tbh, none of the indicators are looking good. Though how much this is to do with Brexit is unclear. The whole of Europe is slowing down though, plus Asia and the US. Describing US Q1 growth as anaemic would be generous (0.5% annualised, which is 0.1% translated to here).
Osborne changed his line in early January, that looks to be when the first signs became known. Yet somehow against this "trend" we had from NIESR the other day a forecast for 2017 of circa 2.7% gdp growth in 2017 (with REMAIN) which seemed to ignore the trends of 2016.... shurely schome mishtake?
Well a technical recession in 2016 is of course a possibility, as it is any given year.
But how great a possibility? and to what extent linked to the June referendum?
Industry is already in 'recession' in the G7, including the US. The US may even come close to an outright GDP recession in H1 as growth in Q1 was a mere 0.1% and Q2 is not shaping up that well, so far.
I'd say we in the UK have a 20-25% chance of technical recession this year based just on the international environment. And probably a higher risk still in 2017.
I'm sure if that does come to pass, EU supporters will claim it is a result of 'Brexit' or 'Brexit fears'. But that will be something that is impossible to prove and almost certainly bogus.
Breaking News: Brazil’s Rousseff suspended from office as impeachment proceeds
12 May, 2016 | KallanishEnergy
Brazil’s President Dilma Rousseff has been suspended from office after 55 senators approved the proceeding of her impeachment process during a 19-hour vote session on Thursday, Kallanish Energy reports. A simple majority of 41 votes were needed to put Brazil's first female president on trial.
Comments
"Take a family with 2 parents and two school age kids.
How much do they have to earn to pay enough tax to be a nett contributor?"
The figure for your example is around £35,00 - £ 37,000.gross salary.
'How much we give the state in tax – and how much we get back ...
www.telegraph.co.uk › Finance › Personal Finance › Tax
15 Feb 2014 - Benefits Britain: how much do you pay in, and how much do you get ... out of about 30 million income tax payers, paid 30pc of all income tax. ... who are net contributors to the state and who are the net beneficiaries. ..... And people with a household income of £10,300 draw out a net amount of £9,539, giving ...
NEW THREAD
The more virulent Leavers may wish to stay on this one, given the authorIf that is what happens then we will be going into a recession with a £1.5 trillion (ish) debt, a £70bn p.a. structural deficit, interest rates at near zero, and years of QE behind us. That should finally put paid to any thoughts that Osborne has been a "near-perfect chancellor".
1. Schedule the BBC Charter News for same day.
2. Do it on same day Bank of England Governor says that Brexit carries risk of recession.
We are getting royally shafted by this Govt.
Menawhile I have deliverers for Vote Leave able to deliver to >4,000 homes and counting.
I spit on guru status. It represents the vapid drivel and detritus of the gutter level of PB.
JackW
PB TOTY.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/may/12/crony-capitalist-corruption-david-cameron-british-tax-havens-avoidance
Everytime I see such posts, my immediate reaction is "Insecure Bugger"
Why would anyone tell others how Big & Clever they were, unless they wanted attention?
But how great a possibility? and to what extent linked to the June referendum?
Industry is already in 'recession' in the G7, including the US. The US may even come close to an outright GDP recession in H1 as growth in Q1 was a mere 0.1% and Q2 is not shaping up that well, so far.
I'd say we in the UK have a 20-25% chance of technical recession this year based just on the international environment. And probably a higher risk still in 2017.
I'm sure if that does come to pass, EU supporters will claim it is a result of 'Brexit' or 'Brexit fears'. But that will be something that is impossible to prove and almost certainly bogus.
Oh? ..... Sorry...wrong thread.
My bad.
Breaking News: Brazil’s Rousseff suspended from office as impeachment proceeds
12 May, 2016 | KallanishEnergy
Brazil’s President Dilma Rousseff has been suspended from office after 55 senators approved the proceeding of her impeachment process during a 19-hour vote session on Thursday, Kallanish Energy reports. A simple majority of 41 votes were needed to put Brazil's first female president on trial.