ITV will put the most prominent Brexit campaigner on TV
Brexit campaign response
IT'S NOT FAIR !!!
Are you suffering from Benjamin Button Syndrome? You appear to experiencing pre-school again.
Now, now. ScottP is the military wing of the Remainers, and he's bloody good at it.
No really, he isn't. Pasting endless propaganda isn't changing anyone's mind - it's not even funny stuff that we could all laugh at.
It's like posting stuff from Eoin.
With the best will in the world, no one on this Board are going to be changing their mind, are they? Scott's ability to wind up the Leavers here with a combination of tweets plus pithy but brutally caustic commentary (as he also does with the SNP) makes him a must-read poster on this site.
Which is why so many lambast him with tedious regularity.
What this immigration row has proved to me is the fundamental importance of the Census. Okay, so if the mid year population estimates have been getting it wrong since 2011 we won't find out until 2022, but at least we will find out.
No you are wrong. The census is equally flawed. The idea of the census was to allow for planning 10 years into the future and was based on the premise of only marginal changes in numbers and locations of people over several year periods.
Now we are talking about 500-750k people a year coming and several 100k going, plus far less people stay put for 10+ years in the same location. The concept of born, bred, died in a region is the minority now.
'Tax plans outlined by the SNP and Labour today have confirmed the Scottish Conservatives will be the only party going into this year’s election on the side of taxpayers, leader Ruth Davidson has said.'
'In an interview with the Press and Journal, Ruth Davidson claimed middle-income families are “quite rightly scared” about the SNP and Labour’s tax plans.'
I know you Yoon migrants are out of touch, but you if you want to work with your mouthpieces in Scotland, you really need to get your ducks in a row
I'm not sure Farage vs Dave would be too bad for "leave". Nige marmalised Clegg in the EU elections debate. I think Dave would be tougher, but it's home territory for Nigel - And both their ratings are very low right now anyway.
It's not a head to head debate is it though?
So I suspect it'll be one of those events that will cheer up both sides and move few undecideds
Is your latest avatar someone who was or should have been hanged, poisoned, shot or boiled alive again ?
Vidkun Abraham Lauritz Jonssøn Quisling
I think I might stick with this avatar until June 24th
ITV will put the most prominent Brexit campaigner on TV
Brexit campaign response
IT'S NOT FAIR !!!
Are you suffering from Benjamin Button Syndrome? You appear to experiencing pre-school again.
Now, now. ScottP is the military wing of the Remainers, and he's bloody good at it.
No really, he isn't. Pasting endless propaganda isn't changing anyone's mind - it's not even funny stuff that we could all laugh at.
It's like posting stuff from Eoin.
With the best will in the world, no one on this Board are going to be changing their mind, are they? Scott's ability to wind up the Leavers here with a combination of tweets plus pithy but brutally caustic commentary (as he also does with the SNP) makes him a must-read poster on this site.
Which is why so many lambast him with tedious regularity.
Are you still planning to campaign for Remain?
On May 5th, politics decided to give me a break (hopefully short), so no. But I'll be voting to remain.
I'm not sure Farage vs Dave would be too bad for "leave". Nige marmalised Clegg in the EU elections debate. I think Dave would be tougher, but it's home territory for Nigel - And both their ratings are very low right now anyway.
It's not a head to head debate is it though?
So I suspect it'll be one of those events that will cheer up both sides and move few undecideds
Is your latest avatar someone who was or should have been hanged, poisoned, shot or boiled alive again ?
Vidkun Abraham Lauritz Jonssøn Quisling
I think I might stick with this avatar until June 24th
ITV will put the most prominent Brexit campaigner on TV
Brexit campaign response
IT'S NOT FAIR !!!
Are you suffering from Benjamin Button Syndrome? You appear to experiencing pre-school again.
Now, now. ScottP is the military wing of the Remainers, and he's bloody good at it.
No really, he isn't. Pasting endless propaganda isn't changing anyone's mind - it's not even funny stuff that we could all laugh at.
It's like posting stuff from Eoin.
With the best will in the world, no one on this Board are going to be changing their mind, are they? Scott's ability to wind up the Leavers here with a combination of tweets plus pithy but brutally caustic commentary (as he also does with the SNP) makes him a must-read poster on this site.
Which is why so many lambast him with tedious regularity.
Are you still planning to campaign for Remain?
On May 5th, politics decided to give me a break (hopefully short), so no. But I'll be voting to remain.
They will rue the day, recognise the error of their ways and they will ensure the break is short.
I did my bit for Remain last night, convinced one undecided to back Remain.
What this immigration row has proved to me is the fundamental importance of the Census. Okay, so if the mid year population estimates have been getting it wrong since 2011 we won't find out until 2022, but at least we will find out.
I thought the Washington Post article about the demographic problems for the GOP were chilling. If you don't like the result - get new voters. We're seeing it in spades here now.
What has become increasingly clear is that any state with a large or growing nonwhite population has become more difficult for Republicans to win. Virginia and North Carolina, long Republican strongholds, have moved closer and closer to Democrats of late. (Obama won both states in 2008 and carried Virginia in 2012.)
At the same time, as these states have grown friendlier to Democrats, there are very few states that are growing increasingly Republican. Wisconsin and Minnesota are two, but neither is moving rapidly in Republicans’ favor just yet.
What this immigration row has proved to me is the fundamental importance of the Census. Okay, so if the mid year population estimates have been getting it wrong since 2011 we won't find out until 2022, but at least we will find out.
No you are wrong. The census is equally flawed. The idea of the census was to allow for planning 10 years into the future and was based on the premise of only marginal changes in numbers and locations of people over several year periods.
Now we are talking about 500-750k people a year coming and several 100k going, plus far less people stay put for 10+ years in the same location. The concept of born, bred, died in a region is the minority now.
I'm not sure Farage vs Dave would be too bad for "leave". Nige marmalised Clegg in the EU elections debate. I think Dave would be tougher, but it's home territory for Nigel - And both their ratings are very low right now anyway.
It's not a head to head debate is it though?
So I suspect it'll be one of those events that will cheer up both sides and move few undecideds
Is your latest avatar someone who was or should have been hanged, poisoned, shot or boiled alive again ?
Vidkun Abraham Lauritz Jonssøn Quisling
I think I might stick with this avatar until June 24th
ITV will put the most prominent Brexit campaigner on TV
Brexit campaign response
IT'S NOT FAIR !!!
Are you suffering from Benjamin Button Syndrome? You appear to experiencing pre-school again.
Now, now. ScottP is the military wing of the Remainers, and he's bloody good at it.
No really, he isn't. Pasting endless propaganda isn't changing anyone's mind - it's not even funny stuff that we could all laugh at.
It's like posting stuff from Eoin.
With the best will in the world, no one on this Board are going to be changing their mind, are they? Scott's ability to wind up the Leavers here with a combination of tweets plus pithy but brutally caustic commentary (as he also does with the SNP) makes him a must-read poster on this site.
Which is why so many lambast him with tedious regularity.
I have changed mine.
Didn't you move from stay to leave several months ago after Cameron's deal? I was more thinking from now until June 23rd.
What this immigration row has proved to me is the fundamental importance of the Census. Okay, so if the mid year population estimates have been getting it wrong since 2011 we won't find out until 2022, but at least we will find out.
People just won't fill in the Census. I didn't fill out the last three Census forms. There was no comeback whatsoever. You think people who are here illegally, or have overstayed on visas, are going to fill out a Census form? Yeah, right.....
I'm not sure Farage vs Dave would be too bad for "leave". Nige marmalised Clegg in the EU elections debate. I think Dave would be tougher, but it's home territory for Nigel - And both their ratings are very low right now anyway.
Daves ratings are lower because he's lost the support of the hard right headbanger wing of his party (who in many cases wouldn't have won their seats without him). I'd hazard a guess he's still more popular and reasonable sounding than Farage.
What this immigration row has proved to me is the fundamental importance of the Census. Okay, so if the mid year population estimates have been getting it wrong since 2011 we won't find out until 2022, but at least we will find out.
Yep, the bottom line is we don't know who lives here. Let's forget the EU for a moment, that is irresponsible and piss poor governance.
I'm not sure Farage vs Dave would be too bad for "leave". Nige marmalised Clegg in the EU elections debate. I think Dave would be tougher, but it's home territory for Nigel - And both their ratings are very low right now anyway.
It's not a head to head debate is it though?
So I suspect it'll be one of those events that will cheer up both sides and move few undecideds
Is your latest avatar someone who was or should have been hanged, poisoned, shot or boiled alive again ?
Vidkun Abraham Lauritz Jonssøn Quisling
I think I might stick with this avatar until June 24th
If I ever need a definition of a storm in a teacup I only have to remember this morning.
I understand David Cameron not wanting to debate another Conservative because it would make the two appear equal and would make the other person the leader-in-waiting.
Nonetheless, he shouldn't force LEAVE to change their spokesman. REMAIN could choose someone else. This is about Cameron's authority as Party leader and Prime Minister in that order.
ITV will put the most prominent Brexit campaigner on TV
Brexit campaign response
IT'S NOT FAIR !!!
Are you suffering from Benjamin Button Syndrome? You appear to experiencing pre-school again.
Now, now. ScottP is the military wing of the Remainers, and he's bloody good at it.
No really, he isn't. Pasting endless propaganda isn't changing anyone's mind - it's not even funny stuff that we could all laugh at.
It's like posting stuff from Eoin.
With the best will in the world, no one on this Board are going to be changing their mind, are they? Scott's ability to wind up the Leavers here with a combination of tweets plus pithy but brutally caustic commentary (as he also does with the SNP) makes him a must-read poster on this site.
Which is why so many lambast him with tedious regularity.
I have changed mine.
Didn't you move from stay to leave several months ago after Cameron's deal? I was more thinking from now until June 23rd.
LEAVE should stop squabbling and get this out there. Enormous vote winner, potentially.'
As there are no exit checks for EU migrants the 'short term intention' claim is nonsense.
At least we know the EU migration figure is around 470,000 per year and not the fantasy figures we were expected to believe. .
You can probably double that figure when the Living Wage gets fully implemented,which will be one of the highest basic wage levels in the entire EU.
As you say this is an enormous vote winner.
Meanwhile the number of EU nationals claiming benefits in Britain has risen by almost 50% in four years, from 92,000 to 130,000. The number of Eastern Europeans claiming out-of-work benefits has risen almost 200% from 22,000 to 61,540.
So the number of EU migrants is a quarter of million higher than the official statistics had suggested, and many tens of thousands more are claiming benefits
@georgeeaton: Vote Leave statement confirms they believe Farage is Remain's secret weapon.
Cameron isn't trusted by the public on the EU for good reason, he'll be dreading the debate as much as Farage will be relishing it.
Camer it here.
If Leave wiheir intelligence.
Yes. That's when the iron entered my soul.
As someone on the wrong side of Cameron, you and your ilk seemed naive. Cameron is exclusively a political animal, possibly conceived in a CCHQ lab, designed to win elections.
ng. At all. And so he risks losing.
I think Cameron's problem is similar out the fact around me.
s it.
Probably of all the posters on here you're the one I'm the most surprised and frustrated about the fact you're voting Remain.
It doesn't compute in my head, and always had you down as one of us, not lining up with 90% of all Guardian readers ;-)
haha how very dare you! Go Polly!
I was an out-waverer (not expecting anyone to have followed my various movements on the matter) until I started to look at specific issues where the EU affects UK life.
I have banged on at length about financial services; I have friends who tell me they don't trust a UK govt to preserve subsidies for farmers (!); but perhaps it is Eliza M-B who summed it up well and which has been my core argument.
She said on R4 that there was no question of us not sharing intelligence with our EU neighbours if we leave, but that the terms of the sharing structure would be decided without us. ie. not cataclysmic, but we would rather have more influence than less.
It is my point about financial services also. Will we prosper? Of course. Is it better to have more influence than less in the rules of the game? I think so.
If we leave, we will make a fist of it, but analagously to your Guardian comment, I just see a lot of value destroyed in the process in the way that if there had been a Labour govt they too would have destroyed value in trying to implement their no doubt laudable aims (an end to poverty, fairness for all, blah, blah).
Vote Leave has laudable aims (Freedom!) but the boring detail of it has suggested to me a) that not as much freedom will be as forthcoming as they hope for; and b) actually the EU really isn't as much of a burden on us as people make out. Hence my constant quest for concrete examples of where it has imposed its sovereignty.
ITV will put the most prominent Brexit campaigner on TV
Brexit campaign response
IT'S NOT FAIR !!!
Are you suffering from Benjamin Button Syndrome? You appear to experiencing pre-school again.
Now, now. ScottP is the military wing of the Remainers, and he's bloody good at it.
No really, he isn't. Pasting endless propaganda isn't changing anyone's mind - it's not even funny stuff that we could all laugh at.
It's like posting stuff from Eoin.
With the best will in the world, no one on this Board are going to be changing their mind, are they? Scott's ability to wind up the Leavers here with a combination of tweets plus pithy but brutally caustic commentary (as he also does with the SNP) makes him a must-read poster on this site.
Which is why so many lambast him with tedious regularity.
Well we'll agree to disagree here. I don't mind reading Twitter posts if they're amusing or informative - endless childish sledging just makes me scroll passed them. He isn't winding me up as I don't bother reading 99% of them.
If LEAVE can't build a decent polling lead from that migration revelation, then they might as well go home now. This is an enormous gift, neatly tied with golden thread. They must use it.
Vote Leave are squeamish about immigration, Nigel won't be on ITV. He'll lambast Cameron over his "tens of thousands" pledge.
What this immigration row has proved to me is the fundamental importance of the Census. Okay, so if the mid year population estimates have been getting it wrong since 2011 we won't find out until 2022, but at least we will find out.
No you are wrong. The census is equally flawed. The idea of the census was to allow for planning 10 years into the future and was based on the premise of only marginal changes in numbers and locations of people over several year periods.
Now we are talking about 500-750k people a year coming and several 100k going, plus far less people stay put for 10+ years in the same location. The concept of born, bred, died in a region is the minority now.
ITV will put the most prominent Brexit campaigner on TV
Brexit campaign response
IT'S NOT FAIR !!!
Are you suffering from Benjamin Button Syndrome? You appear to experiencing pre-school again.
Now, now. ScottP is the military wing of the Remainers, and he's bloody good at it.
No really, he isn't. Pasting endless propaganda isn't changing anyone's mind - it's not even funny stuff that we could all laugh at.
It's like posting stuff from Eoin.
With the best will in the world, no one on this Board are going to be changing their mind, are they? Scott's ability to wind up the Leavers here with a combination of tweets plus pithy but brutally caustic commentary (as he also does with the SNP) makes him a must-read poster on this site.
Which is why so many lambast him with tedious regularity.
Well we'll agree to disagree here. I don't mind reading Twitter posts if they're amusing or informative - endless childish sledging just makes me scroll passed them. He isn't winding me up as I don't bother reading 99% of them.
Fair enough, but you obviously read that one and felt sufficiently aggrieved to respond to it!
The comparison will be obvious and immediate (although it is worth noting there's a vast yawning chasm between Miliband and Boris when it comes to charisma/popularity).
Mr. 63, possibly. Or perhaps Farage will insult the audience.
What this immigration row has proved to me is the fundamental importance of the Census. Okay, so if the mid year population estimates have been getting it wrong since 2011 we won't find out until 2022, but at least we will find out.
People just won't fill in the Census. I didn't fill out the last three Census forms. There was no comeback whatsoever. You think people who are here illegally, or have overstayed on visas, are going to fill out a Census form? Yeah, right.....
The comparison will be obvious and immediate (although it is worth noting there's a vast yawning chasm between Miliband and Boris when it comes to charisma/popularity).
Mr. 63, possibly. Or perhaps Farage will insult the audience.
A % of the audience have already decided to be insulted, that's a gimme.
What this immigration row has proved to me is the fundamental importance of the Census. Okay, so if the mid year population estimates have been getting it wrong since 2011 we won't find out until 2022, but at least we will find out.
People just won't fill in the Census. I didn't fill out the last three Census forms. There was no comeback whatsoever. You think people who are here illegally, or have overstayed on visas, are going to fill out a Census form? Yeah, right.....
The Census is an estimate, not a count. A separate and independent Census Coverage Survey is conducted at the same time. The results of this are compared with the Census and from this an estimate can be made for those that were not captured by the Census.
That's a very simplified explanation of something that is quite complicated, but I trust the Census estimate a lot more than the population estimates made by adding births, subtracting deaths, adding immigrants and subtracting emigrants.
I'm not sure Farage vs Dave would be too bad for "leave". Nige marmalised Clegg in the EU elections debate. I think Dave would be tougher, but it's home territory for Nigel - And both their ratings are very low right now anyway.
Daves ratings are lower because he's lost the support of the hard right headbanger wing of his party (who in many cases wouldn't have won their seats without him). I'd hazard a guess he's still more popular and reasonable sounding than Farage.
Aww, so as a very Wet Tory member and former 3x Labour voter - I'm destined for outer darkness too for voting Leave?
Sheesh. If only the electorate wanted to vote for your manifesto, they'd be saved.
Mr. Thompson, what's the point of an officially designated Leave campaign if it can't determine its own representative in a debate?
If Cameron didn't want the Conservatives to appear split he'd be better off considering his own conduct in recent months.
Miss Vance, UKIP, the third biggest party? They've got 1/650 MPs. Equal with the Greens, behind the Conservatives, Labour, Lib Dems, SNP, Plaid, DUP, Sinn Fein etc.
It's morally indefensible to have one side dictate who can or cannot appear for the other. If Cameron chooses not to debate, fine. If he chooses to debate, fine. But it's unacceptable for him to collude with the broadcaster to dictate who his opponent is.
It's prisoners dilemma. Vote Leave are free to nominate who they want. Cameron is free to say he won't debate one of his own team. Neither is unreasonable and Cameron said he wouldn't debate one of his own team before the decision to give Cabinet ministers a free vote was formalised.
The simple solutions then are: 1 Vote Leave nominate any non Tory they want to debate Cameron. 2 Vote Leave insist on a Tory which ITV accepts and then Cameron is replaced 3 ITV break the deadlock by picking a non Tory themselves.
Given Vote Leave knew Cameron's stipulation all along (and Boris initially said he wouldn't debate a Remain Tory too) then 1 seems sensible. Looks like ITV have gone for 3.
The question is though whether it's down to ITV to break the deadlock on that way. Both sides ought to be free to nominate whoever they want. While i can see that ITV would quite like the PM present for ratings purposes, it's surely undue interference for a broadcaster to unilaterally pick a spokesman for one side; all the more so when that representative isn't even part of the officially designated Leave campaign.
If Remain choose not to nominate the person who negotiated the agreement, that's for them to defend.
What this immigration row has proved to me is the fundamental importance of the Census. Okay, so if the mid year population estimates have been getting it wrong since 2011 we won't find out until 2022, but at least we will find out.
People just won't fill in the Census. I didn't fill out the last three Census forms. There was no comeback whatsoever. You think people who are here illegally, or have overstayed on visas, are going to fill out a Census form? Yeah, right.....
The Census is an estimate, not a count. A separate and independent Census Coverage Survey is conducted at the same time. The results of this are compared with the Census and from this an estimate can be made for those that were not captured by the Census.
That's a very simplified explanation of something that is quite complicated, but I trust the Census estimate a lot more than the population estimates made by adding births, subtracting deaths, adding immigrants and subtracting emigrants.
We need a more proactive regular method of calculating numbers than a 10 yearly snapshot. We now have access to massive amounts of data and methods to automatically and efficiently process / model it, rather than the twee idea of people honestly and accuracy filling in a questionnaire every 10 years.
What this immigration row has proved to me is the fundamental importance of the Census. Okay, so if the mid year population estimates have been getting it wrong since 2011 we won't find out until 2022, but at least we will find out.
People just won't fill in the Census. I didn't fill out the last three Census forms. There was no comeback whatsoever. You think people who are here illegally, or have overstayed on visas, are going to fill out a Census form? Yeah, right.....
I didn't fill it in either.
Known population + Births - Deaths + Airport/Port/Eurotunnel (Arrivals - Departures).
Surely the only uncertainty should be the NI/Eire border ?
And I've never really heard of many immigrants bothering to fly into Dublin, head up to Belfast take the ferry to Liverpool and then head down the M1 to Kent...
If LEAVE can't build a decent polling lead from that migration revelation, then they might as well go home now. This is an enormous gift, neatly tied with golden thread. They must use it.
Vote Leave are squeamish about immigration, Nigel won't be on ITV. He'll lambast Cameron over his "tens of thousands" pledge.
I can't wait.
The migration bombshell will be all over the papers tomorrow. That's for sure.
Yep, Cameron is fucked, he pledged to reduce numbers and they've risen. Others point out our hands are tied because of the EU, ignore the nuances and devil's advocacy on here, that's the headline.
If I ever need a definition of a storm in a teacup I only have to remember this morning.
I understand David Cameron not wanting to debate another Conservative because it would make the two appear equal and would make the other person the leader-in-waiting.
Nonetheless, he shouldn't force LEAVE to change their spokesman. REMAIN could choose someone else. This is about Cameron's authority as Party leader and Prime Minister in that order.
The official campaign to keep Britain in the European Union is preparing a lethal advertising offensive in the final weeks before the referendum. But who could front such a drive?
For the all-important work, David Cameron appears to have selected an old friend.
M&C Saatchi has been hired by The Britain Stronger In Europe campaign to showcase its messages in the crucial final six weeks of the campaign.
The agency and its founders have 35 years of experience working with the Conservatives. And for years the firm has helped the Tories by expertly exploiting opponents’ weaknesses.
M&C Saatchi devised the "pocket Miliband" ad last year, depicting Ed Miliband in the pocket of ex-SNP leader Alex Salmond. The poster fuelled voters’ fear of a Labour-SNP alliance and amplified comments by Cameron that "you could end up with a Labour government led by Ed Miliband, propped up by Alex Salmond and the Scottish National party".
What this immigration row has proved to me is the fundamental importance of the Census. Okay, so if the mid year population estimates have been getting it wrong since 2011 we won't find out until 2022, but at least we will find out.
People just won't fill in the Census. I didn't fill out the last three Census forms. There was no comeback whatsoever. You think people who are here illegally, or have overstayed on visas, are going to fill out a Census form? Yeah, right.....
The Census is an estimate, not a count. A separate and independent Census Coverage Survey is conducted at the same time. The results of this are compared with the Census and from this an estimate can be made for those that were not captured by the Census.
That's a very simplified explanation of something that is quite complicated, but I trust the Census estimate a lot more than the population estimates made by adding births, subtracting deaths, adding immigrants and subtracting emigrants.
We need a more proactive regular method of calculating numbers than a 10 yearly snapshot. We now have access to massive amounts of data and methods to automatically and efficiently process / model it, rather than the twee idea of people honestly and accuracy filling in a questionnaire every 10 years.
We have been told on here for quite some time that it is not up to Vote Leave to provide an alternative vision for a post-Leave UK. Their job is just to get us to Leave and then the government will be in charge of the details.
And now Nigel wants to go on the tellybox to say just that - we must Leave the EU, and all of a sudden it is the wrong kind of Leave.
My thoughts. I started from a position where I needed Leave to put to me a motive that convinced me to jump to their side - a disbenefit of the EU that I could see would be neatly resolved by leaving and would trump the short-medium term trade downside that there will be in Brexit. As it stands, I have not been convinced to take that leap in the dark, not even to make a jaunty walk in conditions where Dickie Bird might have his light-meter out. (I might happily believe the latter was the case if I could be confident of an EEA post-referendum outcome, but the Tories are too febrile to feel at all assured of that).
Across Leave's main themes where they are trying to convince me - Immigration, Sovereignty, Isolation inside Europe, Regulation, Competitiveness, External Trade - I do not see the neat opportunity of a brighter future if we grab it.
I won't go through all in one post but, for instance, on Immigration: Yes, we cannot directly control the volume of EU net migration, though the current state of this is still heavily a consequence of the non-imposition of transitional controls back in 2006. But the 2006 decision was substantially a demographic one and those demographics are not EU dependent. The pension crisis is often talked about, but it is still largely a future threat, with the trickle of baby boomer retirements becoming a flood in the next decade, and with working age populations and birth rates declining steadily in every single 5 year age group after the baby boom (Wikipedia on the 2011 census), it was inevitable that net immigration in the millions would be wanted by almost any government to balance that. (Note: that is not Ponzi in nature, that immigration simply stemmed a large decrease in working / breeding age population and population increases would flatten out longer-term). The choice between future net immigration more skewed towards broadly free-market EU free-movement or future net immigration more skewed towards non-EU citizens on a statist points system isn't a clear cut one for me.
If LEAVE can't build a decent polling lead from that migration revelation, then they might as well go home now. This is an enormous gift, neatly tied with golden thread. They must use it.
The flaky nature of Remain on Immigration is shown here - will discovering its worse make a difference? Who knows.
"Intentions" is a ridiculous concept when trying to measure imigration. If they are short term arrivals then they can be counted out when they get on a plane or Ferry again.
If LEAVE can't build a decent polling lead from that migration revelation, then they might as well go home now. This is an enormous gift, neatly tied with golden thread. They must use it.
Vote Leave are squeamish about immigration, Nigel won't be on ITV. He'll lambast Cameron over his "tens of thousands" pledge.
I can't wait.
Cameron's trustworthiness ratings will soon be exploring new depths. He's been found out and wanting. He's Leave's ace recruiter.
'Just as aside, I find the idea that there are a bunch of private polls out there that are somehow more accurate than public ones laughable.
Why should a private poll be any more accurate than a public one?'
But that was exactly the case with the Labour private polling in the run up to 2015 which was spot on, when interviewed the person responsible for this polling claimed their methodology was different.
If LEAVE can't build a decent polling lead from that migration revelation, then they might as well go home now. This is an enormous gift, neatly tied with golden thread. They must use it.
Vote Leave are squeamish about immigration, Nigel won't be on ITV. He'll lambast Cameron over his "tens of thousands" pledge.
I can't wait.
The migration bombshell will be all over the papers tomorrow. That's for sure.
Indeed. The referendum will also be a good indicator of the dead tree press in influencing public opinion. The Mail, Sun, Express, Telegraph (The Times less so) have given up any pretence of objective reportage and assuredly will go full blast on these figures in the most negative construction possible.
As a Tory, I can't honestly complain as by and large these organs have done the same to Labour at general elections...but can Dave successfully rage against the Murdoch/Barclay Bros/Dacre/Hitchens machine?
We have been told on here for quite some time that it is not up to Vote Leave to provide an alternative vision for a post-Leave UK. Their job is just to get us to Leave and then the government will be in charge of the details.
And now Nigel wants to go on the tellybox to say just that - we must Leave the EU, and all of a sudden it is the wrong kind of Leave.
If LEAVE can't build a decent polling lead from that migration revelation, then they might as well go home now. This is an enormous gift, neatly tied with golden thread. They must use it.
The flaky nature of Remain on Immigration is shown here - will discovering its worse make a difference? Who knows.
I expect that in the last weeks of the campaign, Ipsos MORI will treat their figures, weighted by certainty to vote, as the definitive ones, as they do with voting intention. That will probably result in their producing similar numbers to the Online polls.
What this immigration row has proved to me is the fundamental importance of the Census. Okay, so if the mid year population estimates have been getting it wrong since 2011 we won't find out until 2022, but at least we will find out.
People just won't fill in the Census. I didn't fill out the last three Census forms. There was no comeback whatsoever. You think people who are here illegally, or have overstayed on visas, are going to fill out a Census form? Yeah, right.....
LEAVE should stop squabbling and get this out there. Enormous vote winner, potentially.'
As there are no exit checks for EU migrants the 'short term intention' claim is nonsense.
At least we know the EU migration figure is around 470,000 per year and not the fantasy figures we were expected to believe. .
You can probably double that figure when the Living Wage gets fully implemented,which will be one of the highest basic wage levels in the entire EU.
As you say this is an enormous vote winner.
Meanwhile the number of EU nationals claiming benefits in Britain has risen by almost 50% in four years, from 92,000 to 130,000. The number of Eastern Europeans claiming out-of-work benefits has risen almost 200% from 22,000 to 61,540.
So the number of EU migrants is a quarter of million higher than the official statistics had suggested, and many tens of thousands more are claiming benefits
If LEAVE can't build a decent polling lead from that migration revelation, then they might as well go home now. This is an enormous gift, neatly tied with golden thread. They must use it.
The flaky nature of Remain on Immigration is shown here - will discovering its worse make a difference? Who knows.
And of course the new Living wage will be a magnet for many youngsters in EU countries with horrific levels of youth unemployment.
Note it may also worsen further the situation I remarked on here about a few days ago, of EU immigrants taking jobs that are actually well below their skill level (something like 60% do this now). More bad news for the native unskilled I'm afraid.
If LEAVE can't build a decent polling lead from that migration revelation, then they might as well go home now. This is an enormous gift, neatly tied with golden thread. They must use it.
Vote Leave are squeamish about immigration, Nigel won't be on ITV. He'll lambast Cameron over his "tens of thousands" pledge.
I can't wait.
The migration bombshell will be all over the papers tomorrow. That's for sure.
Indeed. The referendum will also be a good indicator of the dead tree press in influencing public opinion. The Mail, Sun, Express, Telegraph (The Times less so) have given up any pretence of objective reportage and assuredly will go full blast on these figures in the most negative construction possible.
As a Tory, I can't honestly complain as by and large these organs have done the same to Labour at general elections...but can Dave successfully rage against the Murdoch/Barclay Bros/Dacre/Hitchens machine?
One swallow may not make a summer but the Sun's article on Johnson #cornishpastygate might just indicate Murdoch prefers to back the winning side.He may abstain like he did over Scotland EUref.
M&C Saatchi has been hired by The Britain Stronger In Europe campaign to showcase its messages in the crucial final six weeks of the campaign.
Good choice.
Have VoteLeave appointed an agency yet?
They won't be falling over each other for the brief:
almost 90% of agencies warn that Brexit would damage their company’s prospects. An IPA poll found just 4% of respondents felt their prospects would be better if the UK left the EU, compared with 88% who felt their prospects would be better if the country voted to stay.
We have been told on here for quite some time that it is not up to Vote Leave to provide an alternative vision for a post-Leave UK. Their job is just to get us to Leave and then the government will be in charge of the details.
And now Nigel wants to go on the tellybox to say just that - we must Leave the EU, and all of a sudden it is the wrong kind of Leave.
Seriously? What a stupid comparison. I'm astonished someone so smart could make such a silly comparison.
Are you suffering from the Remain Idiot Virus too?
We have been told on here for quite some time that it is not up to Vote Leave to provide an alternative vision for a post-Leave UK. Their job is just to get us to Leave and then the government will be in charge of the details.
And now Nigel wants to go on the tellybox to say just that - we must Leave the EU, and all of a sudden it is the wrong kind of Leave.
Seriously? What a stupid comparison. I'm astonished someone so smart could make such a silly comparison.
Are you suffering from the Remain Idiot Virus too?
Evidently.
Can you spell it out for me (apart from telling me that one is from the People's Front of Leave, etc...) exactly why it is bad having a pro-Leave voice in the debate. Leave is the big goal, as we have been told many times on here, it isn't the Leavers' job to define an alternative so what does it matter?
'So, do the short term ones just go back whence they came after 12 months? How is that enforced or detected'
As there are no exit checks for EU nationals there is no detection,the figure is completely meaningless.
It's a survey, but we do know - for example - that net migration with Ireland and Spain is now negative. That is, returning migrants outnumber new ones arriving.
“ITV has not lied to anyone, nor has there been any kind of ‘stitch-up’.
“It was our editorial decision as to who would take part in the 7 June programme; the PM called the referendum, and the country wants to hear from him, and Nigel Farage has been a leading proponent of an exit from the EU for more than 20 years and his party received 3.8m votes at the election. We invited them both and they accepted.”
ITV will put the most prominent Brexit campaigner on TV
Brexit campaign response
IT'S NOT FAIR !!!
Are you suffering from Benjamin Button Syndrome? You appear to experiencing pre-school again.
Now, now. ScottP is the military wing of the Remainers, and he's bloody good at it.
No really, he isn't. Pasting endless propaganda isn't changing anyone's mind - it's not even funny stuff that we could all laugh at.
It's like posting stuff from Eoin.
With the best will in the world, no one on this Board are going to be changing their mind, are they? Scott's ability to wind up the Leavers here with a combination of tweets plus pithy but brutally caustic commentary (as he also does with the SNP) makes him a must-read poster on this site.
Which is why so many lambast him with tedious regularity.
Well we'll agree to disagree here. I don't mind reading Twitter posts if they're amusing or informative - endless childish sledging just makes me scroll passed them. He isn't winding me up as I don't bother reading 99% of them.
Endless sledging some of it childish - that about sums up this site these days, never mind Twitter.
If LEAVE can't build a decent polling lead from that migration revelation, then they might as well go home now. This is an enormous gift, neatly tied with golden thread. They must use it.
Vote Leave are squeamish about immigration, Nigel won't be on ITV. He'll lambast Cameron over his "tens of thousands" pledge.
I can't wait.
The migration bombshell will be all over the papers tomorrow. That's for sure.
Indeed. The referendum will also be a good indicator of the dead tree press in influencing public opinion. The Mail, Sun, Express, Telegraph (The Times less so) have given up any pretence of objective reportage and assuredly will go full blast on these figures in the most negative construction possible.
As a Tory, I can't honestly complain as by and large these organs have done the same to Labour at general elections...but can Dave successfully rage against the Murdoch/Barclay Bros/Dacre/Hitchens machine?
Are you a Times subscriber? I'd say their Opinion stuff is marginally pro-Remain and their news equally so.
The comments are very pro-Leave. Unless we're assuming their readers are all Mossad agents seeking to swing the vote to Putin - the referendum is very very close.
'So, do the short term ones just go back whence they came after 12 months? How is that enforced or detected'
As there are no exit checks for EU nationals there is no detection,the figure is completely meaningless.
It's a survey, but we do know - for example - that net migration with Ireland and Spain is now negative. That is, returning migrants outnumber new ones arriving.
I'm not sure Farage vs Dave would be too bad for "leave". Nige marmalised Clegg in the EU elections debate. I think Dave would be tougher, but it's home territory for Nigel - And both their ratings are very low right now anyway.
Daves ratings are lower because he's lost the support of the hard right headbanger wing of his party (who in many cases wouldn't have won their seats without him). I'd hazard a guess he's still more popular and reasonable sounding than Farage.
Aww, so as a very Wet Tory member and former 3x Labour voter - I'm destined for outer darkness too for voting Leave?
Sheesh. If only the electorate wanted to vote for your manifesto, they'd be saved.
Hysterical overreaction much. I'm no Europhile but will always support Cameron against the right of the party. I like a winner and the right wing of the Conservative party, besides being nauseating, are about as electable as Jeremy Corbyn and momentum.
Incidentally do you honestly believe the Tories would have won a majority in 2015 without Cameron as leader?
I'm not sure Farage vs Dave would be too bad for "leave". Nige marmalised Clegg in the EU elections debate. I think Dave would be tougher, but it's home territory for Nigel - And both their ratings are very low right now anyway.
Daves ratings are lower because he's lost the support of the hard right headbanger wing of his party (who in many cases wouldn't have won their seats without him). I'd hazard a guess he's still more popular and reasonable sounding than Farage.
Aww, so as a very Wet Tory member and former 3x Labour voter - I'm destined for outer darkness too for voting Leave?
Sheesh. If only the electorate wanted to vote for your manifesto, they'd be saved.
Hysterical overreaction much. I'm no Europhile but will always support Cameron against the right of the party. I like a winner and the right wing of the Conservative party, besides being nauseating, are about as electable as Jeremy Corbyn and momentum.
Incidentally do you honestly believe the Tories would have won a majority in 2015 without Cameron as leader?
'So, do the short term ones just go back whence they came after 12 months? How is that enforced or detected'
As there are no exit checks for EU nationals there is no detection,the figure is completely meaningless.
It's a survey, but we do know - for example - that net migration with Ireland and Spain is now negative. That is, returning migrants outnumber new ones arriving.
Based on the survey, or....?
Other EU countries keep better records than us! We know, therefore, that the number of Spanish people resident in Spain increased in the last quarter of last year for the first time in five years, the biggest contributor being return of migrants from overseas.
I suspect that with both Ireland and Spain (which are the two fastest growing economies in Europe right now), economic recovery is leading to those who left because it was better to be an overqualified Barista in London than unemployed in Madrid.
So, do the short term ones just go back whence they came after 12 months? How is that enforced or detected?
It isn't. Which is why this is a joke.
Nevertheless, gross numbers are - so to speak - grossly misleading. Without measuring those who return after a year or two, we are going to over-estimate migration to the UK.
I'm not sure Farage vs Dave would be too bad for "leave". Nige marmalised Clegg in the EU elections debate. I think Dave would be tougher, but it's home territory for Nigel - And both their ratings are very low right now anyway.
Daves ratings are lower because he's lost the support of the hard right headbanger wing of his party (who in many cases wouldn't have won their seats without him). I'd hazard a guess he's still more popular and reasonable sounding than Farage.
Aww, so as a very Wet Tory member and former 3x Labour voter - I'm destined for outer darkness too for voting Leave?
Sheesh. If only the electorate wanted to vote for your manifesto, they'd be saved.
Hysterical overreaction much. I'm no Europhile but will always support Cameron against the right of the party. I like a winner and the right wing of the Conservative party, besides being nauseating, are about as electable as Jeremy Corbyn and momentum.
Incidentally do you honestly believe the Tories would have won a majority in 2015 without Cameron as leader?
You're changing the question. Nil points.
It's the only question I've asked. And you don't want to answer it........
The never-ceasing amusement of politics continues. I love the idea from the Leavers (i.e. those who arrogantly dismiss almost every single independent well-informed economic forecast) that the Remain side are arrogant and dismissive.
More seriously, I think that Peter Hargreaves has put his finger on the core of the debate: risk vs security.
I am astonished that vote leave have threatened ITV and No 10 over the debate with Cameron and Farage. The rebuttal by ITV has been swift and comprehensive and now vote leave are being question on the threat to No 10. This is a big tactical mistake as the story will now move to the vote leave and leave.eu antagonism to each other
The never-ceasing amusement of politics continues. I love the idea from the Leavers (i.e. those who arrogantly dismiss almost every single independent well-informed economic forecast) that the Remain side are arrogant and dismissive.
More seriously, I think that Peter Hargreaves has put his finger on the core of the debate: risk vs security.
I think we can now safely conclude that those who believe the Tory civil war will end on 24th June are living in cloud cuckoo land. This country faces a long period of instability and desperately poor government.
Of course, it is May who owns immigration. That surely has an impact on her leadership ambitions.
We have been told on here for quite some time that it is not up to Vote Leave to provide an alternative vision for a post-Leave UK. Their job is just to get us to Leave and then the government will be in charge of the details.
And now Nigel wants to go on the tellybox to say just that - we must Leave the EU, and all of a sudden it is the wrong kind of Leave.
Comments
Now we are talking about 500-750k people a year coming and several 100k going, plus far less people stay put for 10+ years in the same location. The concept of born, bred, died in a region is the minority now.
'SNP will not adopt UK Chancellor's 40p tax threshold change'
'Middle-class Scots facing higher income tax than England'
'Nicola Sturgeon unveils double council tax increase for middle classes'
'Wednesday's Scottish Daily Mail: SNP's double tax whammy'
'Tax plans outlined by the SNP and Labour today have confirmed the Scottish Conservatives will be the only party going into this year’s election on the side of taxpayers, leader Ruth Davidson has said.'
'In an interview with the Press and Journal, Ruth Davidson claimed middle-income families are “quite rightly scared” about the SNP and Labour’s tax plans.'
I know you Yoon migrants are out of touch, but you if you want to work with your mouthpieces in Scotland, you really need to get your ducks in a row
I think I might stick with this avatar until June 24th
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/05/vote-leave-loses-its-temper-over-itv-referendum-event/
1h1 hour ago
James Ball @jamesrbuk
There is a *lot* of government news coming out today. Worth keeping an eye out for news dumps...
Hope that helps.
I did my bit for Remain last night, convinced one undecided to back Remain.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/the-gops-electoral-map-problem-is-not-about-trump-its-about-demographics/2016/05/08/14cdf1fc-1523-11e6-924d-838753295f9a_story.html
Free education in Scotland: a bung for the middle class, paid for by the poor.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/education/2015/12/worst-place-poor-students-uk-scotland
It will be interesting to see if they use more emollient language towards ITV
If I ever need a definition of a storm in a teacup I only have to remember this morning.
I understand David Cameron not wanting to debate another Conservative because it would make the two appear equal and would make the other person the leader-in-waiting.
Nonetheless, he shouldn't force LEAVE to change their spokesman. REMAIN could choose someone else. This is about Cameron's authority as Party leader and Prime Minister in that order.
'Actually, before I have coffee, this is potentially a massive story, referendum-wise
https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/730683613335977984
LEAVE should stop squabbling and get this out there. Enormous vote winner, potentially.'
As there are no exit checks for EU migrants the 'short term intention' claim is nonsense.
At least we know the EU migration figure is around 470,000 per year and not the fantasy figures we were expected to believe. .
You can probably double that figure when the Living Wage gets fully implemented,which will be one of the highest basic wage levels in the entire EU.
As you say this is an enormous vote winner.
So the number of EU migrants is a quarter of million higher than the official statistics had suggested, and many tens of thousands more are claiming benefits
http://order-order.com/2016/05/12/true-eu-migration-figure-250000-a-year-higher/
Interesting trend on benefit claimants too.
I was an out-waverer (not expecting anyone to have followed my various movements on the matter) until I started to look at specific issues where the EU affects UK life.
I have banged on at length about financial services; I have friends who tell me they don't trust a UK govt to preserve subsidies for farmers (!); but perhaps it is Eliza M-B who summed it up well and which has been my core argument.
She said on R4 that there was no question of us not sharing intelligence with our EU neighbours if we leave, but that the terms of the sharing structure would be decided without us. ie. not cataclysmic, but we would rather have more influence than less.
It is my point about financial services also. Will we prosper? Of course. Is it better to have more influence than less in the rules of the game? I think so.
If we leave, we will make a fist of it, but analagously to your Guardian comment, I just see a lot of value destroyed in the process in the way that if there had been a Labour govt they too would have destroyed value in trying to implement their no doubt laudable aims (an end to poverty, fairness for all, blah, blah).
Vote Leave has laudable aims (Freedom!) but the boring detail of it has suggested to me a) that not as much freedom will be as forthcoming as they hope for; and b) actually the EU really isn't as much of a burden on us as people make out. Hence my constant quest for concrete examples of where it has imposed its sovereignty.
I can't wait.
@jimwaterson: We're about to watch Boris Johnson carve the numbers "£350m" into steel, to reflect money going to EU. These are exciting times
The comparison will be obvious and immediate (although it is worth noting there's a vast yawning chasm between Miliband and Boris when it comes to charisma/popularity).
Mr. 63, possibly. Or perhaps Farage will insult the audience.
I recall reading somewhere that the Tories didn't even ask a VI question in the private polling in the 2015 election
Brexit seems less a political movement, more a Meldrew-like state of being in a permanent hump about everything, including one another
That's a very simplified explanation of something that is quite complicated, but I trust the Census estimate a lot more than the population estimates made by adding births, subtracting deaths, adding immigrants and subtracting emigrants.
Sheesh. If only the electorate wanted to vote for your manifesto, they'd be saved.
Also, wouldn't the API require an actual login to BF (mine), which might not be appropriate in a public sheet?
If Remain choose not to nominate the person who negotiated the agreement, that's for them to defend.
Surely the only uncertainty should be the NI/Eire border ?
And I've never really heard of many immigrants bothering to fly into Dublin, head up to Belfast take the ferry to Liverpool and then head down the M1 to Kent...
The official campaign to keep Britain in the European Union is preparing a lethal advertising offensive in the final weeks before the referendum. But who could front such a drive?
For the all-important work, David Cameron appears to have selected an old friend.
M&C Saatchi has been hired by The Britain Stronger In Europe campaign to showcase its messages in the crucial final six weeks of the campaign.
The agency and its founders have 35 years of experience working with the Conservatives. And for years the firm has helped the Tories by expertly exploiting opponents’ weaknesses.
M&C Saatchi devised the "pocket Miliband" ad last year, depicting Ed Miliband in the pocket of ex-SNP leader Alex Salmond. The poster fuelled voters’ fear of a Labour-SNP alliance and amplified comments by Cameron that "you could end up with a Labour government led by Ed Miliband, propped up by Alex Salmond and the Scottish National party".
https://www.totalpolitics.com/articles/news/remain-camp-turn-negative-ad-gurus-mc-saatchi-final-push
And now Nigel wants to go on the tellybox to say just that - we must Leave the EU, and all of a sudden it is the wrong kind of Leave.
Across Leave's main themes where they are trying to convince me - Immigration, Sovereignty, Isolation inside Europe, Regulation, Competitiveness, External Trade - I do not see the neat opportunity of a brighter future if we grab it.
I won't go through all in one post but, for instance, on Immigration: Yes, we cannot directly control the volume of EU net migration, though the current state of this is still heavily a consequence of the non-imposition of transitional controls back in 2006. But the 2006 decision was substantially a demographic one and those demographics are not EU dependent. The pension crisis is often talked about, but it is still largely a future threat, with the trickle of baby boomer retirements becoming a flood in the next decade, and with working age populations and birth rates declining steadily in every single 5 year age group after the baby boom (Wikipedia on the 2011 census), it was inevitable that net immigration in the millions would be wanted by almost any government to balance that. (Note: that is not Ponzi in nature, that immigration simply stemmed a large decrease in working / breeding age population and population increases would flatten out longer-term). The choice between future net immigration more skewed towards broadly free-market EU free-movement or future net immigration more skewed towards non-EU citizens on a statist points system isn't a clear cut one for me.
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/730457265757667328
'Just as aside, I find the idea that there are a bunch of private polls out there that are somehow more accurate than public ones laughable.
Why should a private poll be any more accurate than a public one?'
But that was exactly the case with the Labour private polling in the run up to 2015 which was spot on, when interviewed the person responsible for this polling claimed their methodology was different.
As a Tory, I can't honestly complain as by and large these organs have done the same to Labour at general elections...but can Dave successfully rage against the Murdoch/Barclay Bros/Dacre/Hitchens machine?
https://www.buzzfeed.com/jimwaterson/everyone-in-the-anti-eu-campaign-is-fighting-each-other-over
Brexiteers are British Rail
http://www.theguardian.com/uk/2012/jan/27/120-convicted-census-forms-2011
Note it may also worsen further the situation I remarked on here about a few days ago, of EU immigrants taking jobs that are actually well below their skill level (something like 60% do this now). More bad news for the native unskilled I'm afraid.
Have VoteLeave appointed an agency yet?
They won't be falling over each other for the brief:
almost 90% of agencies warn that Brexit would damage their company’s prospects. An IPA poll found just 4% of respondents felt their prospects would be better if the UK left the EU, compared with 88% who felt their prospects would be better if the country voted to stay.
http://www.campaignlive.co.uk/article/david-cameron-enlists-m-c-saatchi-amid-eu-debate/1394531#FO3PkGkBzEbooSVS.99
Are you suffering from the Remain Idiot Virus too?
Electoral Commission going to court v Tory election expenses.
'So, do the short term ones just go back whence they came after 12 months? How is that enforced or detected'
As there are no exit checks for EU nationals there is no detection,the figure is completely meaningless.
Can you spell it out for me (apart from telling me that one is from the People's Front of Leave, etc...) exactly why it is bad having a pro-Leave voice in the debate. Leave is the big goal, as we have been told many times on here, it isn't the Leavers' job to define an alternative so what does it matter?
Unless you think Farage is a tosser?
Thanks.
“ITV has not lied to anyone, nor has there been any kind of ‘stitch-up’.
“It was our editorial decision as to who would take part in the 7 June programme; the PM called the referendum, and the country wants to hear from him, and Nigel Farage has been a leading proponent of an exit from the EU for more than 20 years and his party received 3.8m votes at the election. We invited them both and they accepted.”
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/12/robert-peston-vote-leave-mad-slur-eu-referendum-debate
The comments are very pro-Leave. Unless we're assuming their readers are all Mossad agents seeking to swing the vote to Putin - the referendum is very very close.
I have scanned my entire timeline and I can't find a single thing that is remotely as funny as the Leave campaign this morning
Without Farage, there would be no debates (there would be no referendum)
He is going to be on TV
Leave response, "It's a Government stitch-up"
That is comedy gold
Nobody can tell me that isn't funny...
Incidentally do you honestly believe the Tories would have won a majority in 2015 without Cameron as leader?
Then ask for a salary reduction. The BBC is unlikely to refuse.
https://twitter.com/LeesPhil/status/730702169444323328
I suspect that with both Ireland and Spain (which are the two fastest growing economies in Europe right now), economic recovery is leading to those who left because it was better to be an overqualified Barista in London than unemployed in Madrid.
Dismissing someone's entire oeuvre as "vapid bilge", plus the tone of the posting, put it into a different league.
I am looking for Leicester City numbers here...
More seriously, I think that Peter Hargreaves has put his finger on the core of the debate: risk vs security.
Of course, it is May who owns immigration. That surely has an impact on her leadership ambitions.
(EU rules prevent Renationalisation, BTW).