Plato.. Having worked most of my life with Journos..in print and TV.. I think I might be able to spot a good one..They just report the verifiable facts and do not offer an opinion..that is what they are supposed to do...
This is a great scoop for ITV but above all else this is what Nigel has worked for over 20 years, to debate with a pro EU PM days before an EU referendum. This is the occasion that will absolutely define his career, there'll be no damp squib, no score draws, everything he's ever worked for will be encapsulated in an hour or so.
Its fair to say he's not universally admired on here, but there is nobody better versed on the EU, if he's on song he'll destroy Cameron. His tactic will be to goad him into his Flashman act and point out the EU is all about the cabal between govt and big business which has compressed the wages of the lower paid.
You can argue its high risk, I'm sure some Leavers are nervous but he'll be as well briefed and prepared as anybody, one slip up from Cameron and Nigel will nail him. I actually believe its Cameron taking the bigger risk and indicative of the mood in Remain, if they were confident of winning he'd wave Nigel away, massive roll of the dice by Cameron.
I think, and without wishing to provoke our northern neighbours, it would be a bit like the SPL champions taking on the PL champions. Although respectively top of their tree, the SPL champions would usually expect to get a shellacking.
You misunderestimate Dave at your peril. He is PM and has had everyone throw rubbish his way on every subject from the EU to the spare room subsidy. He is an operator. Nige has rarely not had to answer a tricky question, or to evade a potentially dangerous line of reasoning because he always wants to answer as many EU questions as possible, and usually knows more than his interviewer. Dave is the master at interviewing, ie being a politician, which is more important than being the master of his subject.
Nige is excellent on his day and great fun to watch, and has the nation shouting "gertcha" from its armchair, but Cam he ain't.
Everything you say is correct, but as a Cameron fan downthread says, when rattled he can appear vindictive, I referred to Flashman. Nigel will goad him mercilessly, Cameron is no fool but I believe its a massive risk and clearly one he feels forced into taking.
Pontification pre event is one thing, Remain can't believe they've allowed a situation to arise where Farage has Cameron cornered, its extraordinary. (They hate each other btw)
@jimwaterson: In summary: anti-EU UKIP are at war with anti-EU Vote Leave after Vote Leave attacked ITV/Peston for being pro-EU by putting Farage on TV.
This is a great scoop for ITV but above all else this is what Nigel has worked for over 20 years, to debate with a pro EU PM days before an EU referendum. This is the occasion that will absolutely define his career, there'll be no damp squib, no score draws, everything he's ever worked for will be encapsulated in an hour or so.
Its fair to say he's not universally admired on here, but there is nobody better versed on the EU, if he's on song he'll destroy Cameron. His tactic will be to goad him into his Flashman act and point out the EU is all about the cabal between govt and big business which has compressed the wages of the lower paid.
You can argue its high risk, I'm sure some Leavers are nervous but he'll be as well briefed and prepared as anybody, one slip up from Cameron and Nigel will nail him. I actually believe its Cameron taking the bigger risk and indicative of the mood in Remain, if they were confident of winning he'd wave Nigel away, massive roll of the dice by Cameron.
Morning all,
An alternative view is that Remain have taken the view that reinforcing the association of leave with Farage is good for them.
It's clearly their opinion. Otherwise it wouldn't have been their quid pro quo for Cameron. It's still not their place to decide who they debate with.
This is a great scoop for ITV but above all else this is what Nigel has worked for over 20 years, to debate with a pro EU PM days before an EU referendum. This is the occasion that will absolutely define his career, there'll be no damp squib, no score draws, everything he's ever worked for will be encapsulated in an hour or so.
Its fair to say he's not universally admired on here, but there is nobody better versed on the EU, if he's on song he'll destroy Cameron. His tactic will be to goad him into his Flashman act and point out the EU is all about the cabal between govt and big business which has compressed the wages of the lower paid.
You can argue its high risk, I'm sure some Leavers are nervous but he'll be as well briefed and prepared as anybody, one slip up from Cameron and Nigel will nail him. I actually believe its Cameron taking the bigger risk and indicative of the mood in Remain, if they were confident of winning he'd wave Nigel away, massive roll of the dice by Cameron.
I think, and without wishing to provoke our northern neighbours, it would be a bit like the SPL champions taking on the PL champions. Although respectively top of their tree, the SPL champions would usually expect to get a shellacking.
You misunderestimate Dave at your peril. He is PM and has had everyone throw rubbish his way on every subject from the EU to the spare room subsidy. He is an operator. Nige has rarely not had to answer a tricky question, or to evade a potentially dangerous line of reasoning because he always wants to answer as many EU questions as possible, and usually knows more than his interviewer. Dave is the master at interviewing, ie being a politician, which is more important than being the master of his subject.
Nige is excellent on his day and great fun to watch, and has the nation shouting "gertcha" from its armchair, but Cam he ain't.
I think that it very much depends on the audience watching the debate in the TV studio. Their reactions to what is and isn't said will shape how viewers see things. A real turning point in the Scottish referendum was the very vocal and hostile reaction that Alastair Darling got in the second debate from SNP supporters in the room. After that the polls started to move very sharply to the Yes side.
But don't worry, I'm confident that no one is paying you to spew your vapid bilge.
Well that's a new low for the site....
Not exactly - it would pass as an unremarkable comment from SeanT. But SeanT is entertaining and nobody pays any attention at his actual opinions (which vary from day to day anyway), but I'm not sure Alastair, who is IMO a heavyweight commentator, should want to emulate him.
I am struggling to see how having Nigel Farage on primetime TV arguing the Leave cause against the PM is biased against Leave.
Or indeed taking the Leaders of the Parties that scored the highest and third highest number of votes at the GE a year ago is some form of 'travesty'.....or 'establishment stitch up'....
Boris and Gove need to disassociate themselves pronto from the lunatic who sent out that email last night. After Redwood's attack on Cameron, there is a pattern emerging here. It looks like the Tory right are increasingly seeing this campaign as a direct means of getting rid of Cameron.
Well that was going to happen if they win anyway, but I get the impression they are being more honest about it now camerons ratings have taken so severe a hit, and soon any pretence that he can and should stay on will be dropped by most, as the more unpopular he becomes the more the Tory right can take him down even if remain wins. It has long been the tactic to decry unfairness toward leave to explain continued complaint even if remain win, and the actual campaign has provided much fodder for that grievance to seem more reasonable.
On Cameron vs. FArage, for all the talk farage only appeals to his base, on this issue he in his element and can be quite appealing. In the ge debates he suffers because his positioning needs to be more nuanced, the bringing everything back to the eu just isn't credible for everything, and additionally can make his points convoluted and tortured. In a debate on the eu he can be simple, direct and reinforce peoples dislike of the eu, as most people dislike it even if they are fearing consequences of leaving. Few people are passionate for positive reasons for remains. So it is Cameron who will be making convoluted arguments about technical benefits of membership, or else blunt attacks that don't ring true. So farage should win.
VoteLeAve may well have a point, but is it a fight worth having, particularly as the risk to Cameron us higher than for Leave?
For all Farage's many faults he's quick on his feet and has an amiable 'bloke down the pub' style - and if Cameron gets ratty he can look vindictive.....
Which makes the reaction all the more bizarre.
"He's a good campaigner, he won the last TV debates, he is on our side, we have the best arguments, we need regulation to keep him off TV..."
What exactly is the Brexiteers problem?
They're just drumming up interest with a bit of controversy. The important thing for Leave is that as many people as possible see the debate.
They should put Gerry Adams up for Remain - that will create some controversy. The important thing for Remain is that as many people as possible see the debate.
A Gerry Adams vs George Galloway debate would undoubtedly be a commercial hit!
The media are talking to themselves about some BBC changes that may or not be happening [I can't tell who's in charge after all of Osborne's meddling]. And ITV has bizarrely invited Farage to go against the PM in the debates.
Farage isn't a big wheel in the official Leave campaign. It's obviously inappropriate to stick him up against Cameron who is leading the official Remain team.
I don't mind Farage speaking and debating - but ITV shouldn't be playing around like this, and certainly shouldn't be dancing to Number 10, if that was indeed the case.
I believe that Gove has said he won't debate Cameron. I don't want Boris, because I think Cameron would destroy him.
In any case, given the way Farage took Clegg apart, I reckon he'll do a good job.
I'm sure Nigel Farage will be technically decent at the job. The problem for Leave is that almost everyone who isn't already convinced by him hates him.
Would any Leave supporter, however, care to try to defend the Vote Leave response to this development?
This is a great scoop for ITV but above all else this is what Nigel has worked for over 20 years, to debate with a pro EU PM days before an EU referendum. This is the occasion that will absolutely define his career, there'll be no damp squib, no score draws, everything he's ever worked for will be encapsulated in an hour or so.
Its fair to say he's not universally admired on here, but there is nobody better versed on the EU, if he's on song he'll destroy Cameron. His tactic will be to goad him into his Flashman act and point out the EU is all about the cabal between govt and big business which has compressed the wages of the lower paid.
You can argue its high risk, I'm sure some Leavers are nervous but he'll be as well briefed and prepared as anybody, one slip up from Cameron and Nigel will nail him. I actually believe its Cameron taking the bigger risk and indicative of the mood in Remain, if they were confident of winning he'd wave Nigel away, massive roll of the dice by Cameron.
I think, and without wishing to provoke our northern neighbours, it would be a bit like the SPL champions taking on the PL champions. Although respectively top of their tree, the SPL champions would usually expect to get a shellacking.
You misunderestimate Dave at your peril. He is PM and has had everyone throw rubbish his way on every subject from the EU to the spare room subsidy. He is an operator. Nige has rarely not had to answer a tricky question, or to evade a potentially dangerous line of reasoning because he always wants to answer as many EU questions as possible, and usually knows more than his interviewer. Dave is the master at interviewing, ie being a politician, which is more important than being the master of his subject.
Nige is excellent on his day and great fun to watch, and has the nation shouting "gertcha" from its armchair, but Cam he ain't.
I think that it very much depends on the audience watching the debate in the TV studio. Their reactions to what is and isn't said will shape how viewers see things. A real turning point in the Scottish referendum was the very vocal and hostile reaction that Alastair Darling got in the second debate from SNP supporters in the room. After that the polls started to move very sharply to the Yes side.
Alistair Darling being shit in the Second Debate moved the polls not 12 people in the audience booing him for being crap. Likewise Salmond was shit in the first debate, you didn't need the audience heckling him to determine that.
For all Farage's many faults he's quick on his feet and has an amiable 'bloke down the pub' style - and if Cameron gets ratty he can look vindictive.....
Which makes the reaction all the more bizarre.
"He's a good campaigner, he won the last TV debates, he is on our side, we have the best arguments, we need regulation to keep him off TV..."
What exactly is the Brexiteers problem?
They're just drumming up interest with a bit of controversy. The important thing for Leave is that as many people as possible see the debate.
They should put Gerry Adams up for Remain - that will create some controversy. The important thing for Remain is that as many people as possible see the debate.
A Gerry Adams vs George Galloway debate would undoubtedly be a commercial hit!
wouldn't they just spend all their time agreeing with each other ?
This is a great scoop for ITV but above all else this is what Nigel has worked for over 20 years, to debate with a pro EU PM days before an EU referendum. This is the occasion that will absolutely define his career, there'll be no damp squib, no score draws, everything he's ever worked for will be encapsulated in an hour or so.
Its fair to say he's not universally admired on here, but there is nobody better versed on the EU, if he's on song he'll destroy Cameron. His tactic will be to goad him into his Flashman act and point out the EU is all about the cabal between govt and big business which has compressed the wages of the lower paid.
You can argue its high risk, I'm sure some Leavers are nervous but he'll be as well briefed and prepared as anybody, one slip up from Cameron and Nigel will nail him. I actually believe its Cameron taking the bigger risk and indicative of the mood in Remain, if they were confident of winning he'd wave Nigel away, massive roll of the dice by Cameron.
I think, and without wishing to provoke our northern neighbours, it would be a bit like the SPL champions taking on the PL champions. Although respectively top of their tree, the SPL champions would usually expect to get a shellacking.
You misunderestimate Dave at your peril. He is PM and has had everyone throw rubbish his way on every subject from the EU to the spare room subsidy. He is an operator. Nige has rarely not had to answer a tricky question, or to evade a potentially dangerous line of reasoning because he always wants to answer as many EU questions as possible, and usually knows more than his interviewer. Dave is the master at interviewing, ie being a politician, which is more important than being the master of his subject.
Nige is excellent on his day and great fun to watch, and has the nation shouting "gertcha" from its armchair, but Cam he ain't.
Everything you say is correct, but as a Cameron fan downthread says, when rattled he can appear vindictive, I referred to Flashman. Nigel will goad him mercilessly, Cameron is no fool but I believe its a massive risk and clearly one he feels forced into taking.
Pontification pre event is one thing, Remain can't believe they've allowed a situation to arise where Farage has Cameron cornered, its extraordinary. (They hate each other btw)
I would love to see them both lose it - vindicating ITV's commercial decision to have them there in the first place. Sadly, I think it will be a damp squib and both sides will be in a don't-lose-it straightjacket.
The media are talking to themselves about some BBC changes that may or not be happening [I can't tell who's in charge after all of Osborne's meddling]. And ITV has bizarrely invited Farage to go against the PM in the debates.
Farage isn't a big wheel in the official Leave campaign. It's obviously inappropriate to stick him up against Cameron who is leading the official Remain team.
I don't mind Farage speaking and debating - but ITV shouldn't be playing around like this, and certainly shouldn't be dancing to Number 10, if that was indeed the case.
I believe that Gove has said he won't debate Cameron. I don't want Boris, because I think Cameron would destroy him.
In any case, given the way Farage took Clegg apart, I reckon he'll do a good job.
I'm sure Nigel Farage will be technically decent at the job. The problem for Leave is that almost everyone who isn't already convinced by him hates him.
Would any Leave supporter, however, care to try to defend the Vote Leave response to this development?
For all Farage's many faults he's quick on his feet and has an amiable 'bloke down the pub' style - and if Cameron gets ratty he can look vindictive.....
Which makes the reaction all the more bizarre.
"He's a good campaigner, he won the last TV debates, he is on our side, we have the best arguments, we need regulation to keep him off TV..."
What exactly is the Brexiteers problem?
They're just drumming up interest with a bit of controversy. The important thing for Leave is that as many people as possible see the debate.
They should put Gerry Adams up for Remain - that will create some controversy. The important thing for Remain is that as many people as possible see the debate.
I disagree, others will know more tv channel audiences but I'd guess those that watch Corrie don't always stay up to watch Newsnight. Farage is far more likely to engage with Corrie viewers than Cameron.
The more I think about this the more positive I get
I disagree - we're looking for the swing voters. Farage has had years at this and I think he's captured his own base very well. For everyone else, it needs another face to present the case. That's why I'm so pleased with Boris. He's got that X-Factor and perfect for the campaign trail - he's not right for a tight debate as he waffles.
Gove or in my opinion Hannan are much better at the finer points in an argument.
There once was an old Jacobite Whose predictions just clogged up the site and though PB laughed and said he was daft they shut up when the bugger was right
The media are talking to themselves about some BBC changes that may or not be happening [I can't tell who's in charge after all of Osborne's meddling]. And ITV has bizarrely invited Farage to go against the PM in the debates.
Farage isn't a big wheel in the official Leave campaign. It's obviously inappropriate to stick him up against Cameron who is leading the official Remain team.
I don't mind Farage speaking and debating - but ITV shouldn't be playing around like this, and certainly shouldn't be dancing to Number 10, if that was indeed the case.
I believe that Gove has said he won't debate Cameron. I don't want Boris, because I think Cameron would destroy him.
In any case, given the way Farage took Clegg apart, I reckon he'll do a good job.
I'm sure Nigel Farage will be technically decent at the job. The problem for Leave is that almost everyone who isn't already convinced by him hates him.
Would any Leave supporter, however, care to try to defend the Vote Leave response to this development?
There once was a true beLEAVEr Who came down with a terrible fever What a mess we have got ITV's in on the plot! And my tin foil is stuck in the freezer
Of course - though it would be equally bad for the media to determine who can and can't appear on the screens, particularly during a referendum / election campaign. The electronic media is supposed to be impartial and unbiased. Whether or not you think that's a good thing is beside the point (FWIW, I think the time for that requirement - that of the one-/two-provider era - has passed and there's no reason that radio and TV shouldn't be able to have editorial opinions, the same as the print media).
Diverting the tetchy exchanges onto this interesting point: this is done in Germany, where the TV channel can have a (mildly) one-sided contribution from a pundit after the substantive newws, with OPINION appearing throughout in large letters on the screen.
Personally I don't think it adds much. People interested in politics react purely according to whether they agree with him - what a sound comment, liberal nonsense, etc. - or they think it's a waste of time. People not interested probably aren't still watching anyway, but if they are they get a piece from the soggy middle ground. The idea of having someone express an AfD or Linke view without a balancing piece is unthinkable.
There are zillions of ways people can get opinion. The unique service of the main TV channels is that they deliver the news with an attempt at balanced factuality. If we muddy that by finding out that, say, Andrew Neil thinks Government policy on housing is garbage. I think we all lose. In fact IMO the TV pundits go too far already in sneaking in their own biases.
Re unpleasantness and the eu debate, I'm not sure many people are covering themselves in glory, here and elsewhere. Smug condescension, belittling, or paranoid, unfocused hostility with a side of self righteousness, referendums seem to bring out the worst in people, and I fear it will only get worse as there so long to go.
I'm glad we have less polling. In recent years they've been driving the narrative as much as reflecting it.
There's been such a pile-up of polls some days that I'd no idea what was new or old being retweeted.
The daily YouGov was a menace and I'm delighted it's not a feature right now. As another poster here noted a couple of days ago, using 6 YouGovs to measure anything re polling accuracy doesn't make them 6 pollsters.
Of course - though it would be equally bad for the media to determine who can and can't appear on the screens, particularly during a referendum / election campaign. The electronic media is supposed to be impartial and unbiased. Whether or not you think that's a good thing is beside the point (FWIW, I think the time for that requirement - that of the one-/two-provider era - has passed and there's no reason that radio and TV shouldn't be able to have editorial opinions, the same as the print media).
Diverting the tetchy exchanges onto this interesting point: this is done in Germany, where the TV channel can have a (mildly) one-sided contribution from a pundit after the substantive newws, with OPINION appearing throughout in large letters on the screen.
Personally I don't think it adds much. People interested in politics react purely according to whether they agree with him - what a sound comment, liberal nonsense, etc. - or they think it's a waste of time. People not interested probably aren't still watching anyway, but if they are they get a piece from the soggy middle ground. The idea of having someone express an AfD or Linke view without a balancing piece is unthinkable.
There are zillions of ways people can get opinion. The unique service of the main TV channels is that they deliver the news with an attempt at balanced factuality. If we muddy that by finding out that, say, Andrew Neil thinks Government policy on housing is garbage. I think we all lose. In fact IMO the TV pundits go too far already in sneaking in their own biases.
I agree with most of that Nick (don't be too shocked...). I think one of the problems is that the pundits have developed an inflated sense of their own importance over time, and think the programmes they are involved in are about them rather than the issues.
This isn't limited to political coverage btw, the same thing can be observed re. for example sports coverage.
Morning all. Hope you all give the podcast a listen and share. The polling certainly still seems to point towards a Remain vote but with no room for complacency right now.
I saw someone throw around an accusation of bias because Leo is openly pro Remain and say we should have some Pro Leave guests on.
Just to point out a couple of months ago that we did have Douglas Carswell on!
There are so many echoes of the Scottish referendum in this. Alastair Darling's biggest problem for the debates, and it was a major problem for BT as a whole, Ruth Davidson apart, was that he had real problems articulating a love of Britain, particularly when it had a Tory/coalition government. This gave Salmond a massive advantage, particularly with the heart brigade.
On the Remain side I don't think anyone other than maybe Nick Clegg, has any admiration for the EU. They are very happy making economic arguments for it in the same way BT did for the Union. They will go so far as saying that the alternatives are worse. But they really can't pretend it is good or developing in a way that we as a country want.
So when Boris comes out with EU subsidies for Spanish bull fighting (now stopped but how the hell did it ever start) or Greek tobacco Remain are immediately on the defensive. The response to date has been to give the EU credit for things it has at best peripheral credit for such as stopping world war 3 and to argue that it gives the UK leverage in world affairs. That's about as good as it gets and that is struggling to be credible.
What we also saw in the Scottish referendum is that economic arguments can still win. Will it be enough this time?
This is a great scoop for ITV but above all else this is what Nigel has worked for over 20 years, to debate with a pro EU PM days before an EU referendum. This is the occasion that will absolutely define his career, there'll be no damp squib, no score draws, everything he's ever worked for will be encapsulated in an hour or so.
Its fair to say he's not universally admired on here, but there is nobody better versed on the EU, if he's on song he'll destroy Cameron.
You can argue its high risk, I'm sure some Leavers are nervous but he'll be as well briefed and prepared as anybody, one slip up from Cameron and Nigel will nail him. I actually believe its Cameron taking the bigger risk and indicative of the mood in Remain, if they were confident of winning he'd wave Nigel away, massive roll of the dice by Cameron.
I think, and without wishing to provoke our northern neighbours, it would be a bit like the SPL champions taking on the PL champions. Although respectively top of their tree, the SPL champions would usually expect to get a shellacking.
You misunderestimate Dave at your peril. He is PM and has had everyone throw rubbish his way on every subject from the EU to the spare room subsidy. He is an operator. Nige has rarely not had to answer a tricky question, or to evade a potentially dangerous line of reasoning because he always wants to answer as many EU questions as possible, and usually knows more than his interviewer. Dave is the master at interviewing, ie being a politician, which is more important than being the master of his subject.
Nige is excellent on his day and great fun to watch, and has the nation shouting "gertcha" from its armchair, but Cam he ain't.
Everything you say is correct, but as a Cameron fan downthread says, when rattled he can appear vindictive, I referred to Flashman. Nigel will goad him mercilessly, Cameron is no fool but I believe its a massive risk and clearly one he feels forced into taking.
Pontification pre event is one thing, Remain can't believe they've allowed a situation to arise where Farage has Cameron cornered, its extraordinary. (They hate each other btw)
IIRC it's Cameron and Farage taking questions from an audience, in turn. That was the same for Cameron and Miliband last year.
The trouble for Leave is (and Remain know it) is that Farage is a total turnoff for floating voters. It doesn't matter how good he is on the night if he's toxic - people won't listen. And someone will ask about Russia and Putin, and Nigel will say what he thinks.
Cameron will then quite happily paint Farage, Galloway, Putin and Le Pen into the same box.
The only saving grace is that Cameron doesn't have quite the same allure that he did last year to floating voters.
The media are talking to themselves about some BBC changes that may or not be happening [I can't tell who's in charge after all of Osborne's meddling]. And ITV has bizarrely invited Farage to go against the PM in the debates.
Farage isn't a big wheel in the official Leave campaign. It's obviously inappropriate to stick him up against Cameron who is leading the official Remain team.
I don't mind Farage speaking and debating - but ITV shouldn't be playing around like this, and certainly shouldn't be dancing to Number 10, if that was indeed the case.
I believe that Gove has said he won't debate Cameron. I don't want Boris, because I think Cameron would destroy him.
In any case, given the way Farage took Clegg apart, I reckon he'll do a good job.
I'm sure Nigel Farage will be technically decent at the job. The problem for Leave is that almost everyone who isn't already convinced by him hates him.
Would any Leave supporter, however, care to try to defend the Vote Leave response to this development?
Do we have a list of the PBers who are paid to make comments by foreign governments or indeed anyone other organisation ?
And how do you become one of these paid posters ? How much do they get paid ? Do you have to pay tax on these earnings ?
In all honesty, even when someone seems to be parroting a line for a party, person or government, I assume it's genuine, as enthusiastic amateurs get the job done better than paid shills Imagine.
This is a great scoop for ITV but above all else this is what Nigel has worked for over 20 years, to debate with a pro EU PM days before an EU referendum. This is the occasion that will absolutely define his career, there'll be no damp squib, no score draws, everything he's ever worked for will be encapsulated in an hour or so.
snip
I think, and without wishing to provoke our northern neighbours, it would be a bit like the SPL champions taking on the PL champions. Although respectively top of their tree, the SPL champions would usually expect to get a shellacking.
You misunderestimate Dave at your peril. He is PM and has had everyone throw rubbish his way on every subject from the EU to the spare room subsidy. He is an operator. Nige has rarely not had to answer a tricky question, or to evade a potentially dangerous line of reasoning because he always wants to answer as many EU questions as possible, and usually knows more than his interviewer. Dave is the master at interviewing, ie being a politician, which is more important than being the master of his subject.
Nige is excellent on his day and great fun to watch, and has the nation shouting "gertcha" from its armchair, but Cam he ain't.
I think that it very much depends on the audience watching the debate in the TV studio. Their reactions to what is and isn't said will shape how viewers see things. A real turning point in the Scottish referendum was the very vocal and hostile reaction that Alastair Darling got in the second debate from SNP supporters in the room. After that the polls started to move very sharply to the Yes side.
Exactly right. That 2nd debate was a crucial pivot in indyref, and nearly won it for YES. Cameron must know this, of course, which means he really believes he is losing. Everything now points that way. Therefore he has no choice.
Astonishing, really. I picture the Cameron household, and David secretly kicking the cat in helpless anger.
I think the pre-briefing of WAR!!! was the disaster point for Remain so far. That Cameron had his speech rewritten early the next morning is neither here nor there - the damage was done.
Anyone who isn't terminally nerdy saw the headlines in the press/on the TV and heard WAR!!
A massive PR mistake and blows other appeals to authority out of the water - Leave can use this absurd hyperbole to undermine all of Remains various threats. And those threats are turning voters away from Remain. It's blindingly obvious.
Boris and Gove need to disassociate themselves pronto from the lunatic who sent out that email last night. After Redwood's attack on Cameron, there is a pattern emerging here. It looks like the Tory right are increasingly seeing this campaign as a direct means of getting rid of Cameron.
Well that was going to happen if they win anyway, but I get the impression they are being more honest about it now camerons ratings have taken so severe a hit, and soon any pretence that he can and should stay on will be dropped by most, as the more unpopular he becomes the more the Tory right can take him down even if remain wins. It has long been the tactic to decry unfairness toward leave to explain continued complaint even if remain win, and the actual campaign has provided much fodder for that grievance to seem more reasonable.
On Cameron vs. FArage, for all the talk farage only appeals to his base, on this issue he in his element and can be quite appealing. In the ge debates he suffers because his positioning needs to be more nuanced, the bringing everything back to the eu just isn't credible for everything, and additionally can make his points convoluted and tortured. In a debate on the eu he can be simple, direct and reinforce peoples dislike of the eu, as most people dislike it even if they are fearing consequences of leaving. Few people are passionate for positive reasons for remains. So it is Cameron who will be making convoluted arguments about technical benefits of membership, or else blunt attacks that don't ring true. So farage should win.
VoteLeAve may well have a point, but is it a fight worth having, particularly as the risk to Cameron us higher than for Leave?
I don't see why ITV don't split the Q&A as a four-way: say, Cameron and Farron or Johnson for Remain, and Farage and Boris for Leave.
Ok, so there'd be less time for each - but it'd be fairer and less contentious.
BTW have we had any tweets from Osborne about recent economic data or has he given up his day job and is now only concerned with turning every school into an academy and in creating extra layers of government in random parts of England ?
Morning all. Hope you all give the podcast a listen and share. The polling certainly still seems to point towards a Remain vote but with no room for complacency right now.
I saw someone throw around an accusation of bias because Leo is openly pro Remain and say we should have some Pro Leave guests on.
Just to point out a couple of months ago that we did have Douglas Carswell on!
Incidentally the betting must move soon, what with all these smoke signals indicating panic at Number 10. HMG will, I am quite sure, be paying for the best private polling.
I reckon LEAVE is now about 5/4 and REMAIN 4/5. What a time to be alive.
Of course - though it would be equally bad for the media to determine who can and can't appear on the screens, particularly during a referendum / election campaign. The electronic media is supposed to be impartial and unbiased. Whether or not you think that's a good thing is beside the point (FWIW, I think the time for that requirement - that of the one-/two-provider era - has passed and there's no reason that radio and TV shouldn't be able to have editorial opinions, the same as the print media).
Diverting the tetchy exchanges onto this interesting point: this is done in Germany, where the TV channel can have a (mildly) one-sided contribution from a pundit after the substantive newws, with OPINION appearing throughout in large letters on the screen.
Personally I don't think it adds much. People interested in politics react purely according to whether they agree with him - what a sound comment, liberal nonsense, etc. - or they think it's a waste of time. People not interested probably aren't still watching anyway, but if they are they get a piece from the soggy middle ground. The idea of having someone express an AfD or Linke view without a balancing piece is unthinkable.
There are zillions of ways people can get opinion. The unique service of the main TV channels is that they deliver the news with an attempt at balanced factuality. If we muddy that by finding out that, say, Andrew Neil thinks Government policy on housing is garbage. I think we all lose. In fact IMO the TV pundits go too far already in sneaking in their own biases.
I agree with most of that Nick (don't be too shocked...). I think one of the problems is that the pundits have developed an inflated sense of their own importance over time, and think the programmes they are involved in are about them rather than the issues.
This isn't limited to political coverage btw, the same thing can be observed re. for example sports coverage.
Absolutely - and particularly true of political pundits who've a nasty habit of interviewing each other, and then deciding they were right.
Morning all. Hope you all give the podcast a listen and share. The polling certainly still seems to point towards a Remain vote but with no room for complacency right now.
I saw someone throw around an accusation of bias because Leo is openly pro Remain and say we should have some Pro Leave guests on.
Just to point out a couple of months ago that we did have Douglas Carswell on!
I think the pre-briefing of WAR!!! was the disaster point for Remain so far. That Cameron had his speech rewritten early the next morning is neither here nor there - the damage was done.
Anyone who isn't terminally nerdy saw the headlines in the press/on the TV and heard WAR!!
A massive PR mistake and blows other appeals to authority out of the water - Leave can use this absurd hyperbole to undermine all of Remains various threats. And those threats are turning voters away from Remain. It's blindingly obvious.
The problem Remain has, is that if they say "it might be this, it might that" with soft options on both sides, then Leave can safely cry "Freedom" (and little risk) and persuade a lot of people to vote for them.
This puts Remain in the position where they have to threaten The End of The World to try and win. Which isn't working as no one takes them seriously.
This is a great scoop for ITV but above all else this is what Nigel has worked for over 20 years, to debate with a pro EU PM days before an EU referendum. This is the occasion that will absolutely define his career, there'll be no damp squib, no score draws, everything he's ever worked for will be encapsulated in an hour or so.
snip
I think, and without wishing to provoke our northern neighbours, it would be a bit like the SPL champions taking on the PL champions. Although respectively top of their tree, the SPL champions would usually expect to get a shellacking.
You misunderestimate Dave at your peril. He is PM and has had everyone throw rubbish his way on every subject from the EU to the spare room subsidy. He is an operator. Nige has rarely not had to answer a tricky question, or to evade a potentially dangerous line of reasoning because he always wants to answer as many EU questions as possible, and usually knows more than his interviewer. Dave is the master at interviewing, ie being a politician, which is more important than being the master of his subject.
Nige is excellent on his day and great fun to watch, and has the nation shouting "gertcha" from its armchair, but Cam he ain't.
I think that it very much depends on the audience watching the debate in the TV studio. Their reactions to what is and isn't said will shape how viewers see things. A real turning point in the Scottish referendum was the very vocal and hostile reaction that Alastair Darling got in the second debate from SNP supporters in the room. After that the polls started to move very sharply to the Yes side.
Exactly right. That 2nd debate was a crucial pivot in indyref, and nearly won it for YES. Cameron must know this, of course, which means he really believes he is losing. Everything now points that way. Therefore he has no choice.
Astonishing, really. I picture the Cameron household, and David secretly kicking the cat in helpless anger.
I think the pre-briefing of WAR!!! was the disaster point for Remain so far. That Cameron had his speech rewritten early the next morning is neither here nor there - the damage was done.
Anyone who isn't terminally nerdy saw the headlines in the press/on the TV and heard WAR!!
A massive PR mistake and blows other appeals to authority out of the water - Leave can use this absurd hyperbole to undermine all of Remains various threats. And those threats are turning voters away from Remain. It's blindingly obvious.
People at work were laughing at Cameron's War threats.
The last time they were reacting like that was to Corbyn's 'submarines without missiles' idea.
This is a great scoop for ITV but above all else this is what Nigel has worked for over 20 years, to debate with a pro EU PM days before an EU referendum. This is the occasion that will absolutely define his career, there'll be no damp squib, no score draws, everything he's ever worked for will be encapsulated in an hour or so.
Its fair to say he's not universally admired on here, but there is nobody better versed on the EU, if he's on song he'll destroy Cameron. His tactic will be to goad him into his Flashman act and point out the EU is all about the cabal between govt and big business which has compressed the wages of the lower paid.
You can argue its high risk, I'm sure some Leavers are nervous but he'll be as well briefed and prepared as anybody, one slip up from Cameron and Nigel will nail him. I actually believe its Cameron taking the bigger risk and indicative of the mood in Remain, if they were confident of winning he'd wave Nigel away, massive roll of the dice by Cameron.
I think, and without wishing to provoke our northern neighbours, it would be a bit like the SPL champions taking on the PL champions. Although respectively angerous line of reasoning because he always wants to answer as many EU questions as possible, and usually knows more than his interviewer. Dave is the master at interviewing, ie being a politician, which is more important than being the master of his subject.
Nige is excellent on his day and great fun to watch, and has the nation shouting "gertcha" from its armchair, but Cam he ain't.
I think that it very much depends on the audience watching the debate in the TV studio. Their reactions to what is and isn't said will shape how viewers see things. A real turning point in the Scottish referendum was the very vocal and hostile reaction that Alastair Darling got in the second debate from SNP supporters in the room. After that the polls started to move very sharply to the Yes side.
Exactly right. That 2nd debate was a crucial pivot in indyref, and nearly won it for YES. Cameron must know this, of course, which means he really believes he is losing. Everything now points that way. Therefore he has no choice.
Astonishing, really. I picture the Cameron household, and David secretly kicking the cat in helpless anger.
Darling won the first debate though so overall the debates had a neutral effect. Had Salmond or Darling won both the impact would have been more
I think the pre-briefing of WAR!!! was the disaster point for Remain so far. That Cameron had his speech rewritten early the next morning is neither here nor there - the damage was done.
Anyone who isn't terminally nerdy saw the headlines in the press/on the TV and heard WAR!!
A massive PR mistake and blows other appeals to authority out of the water - Leave can use this absurd hyperbole to undermine all of Remains various threats. And those threats are turning voters away from Remain. It's blindingly obvious.
Incidentally the betting must move soon, what with all these smoke signals indicating panic at Number 10. HMG will, I am quite sure, be paying for the best private polling.
I reckon LEAVE is now about 5/4 and REMAIN 4/5. What a time to be alive.
I'm beginning to wonder if a Vow will be produced in the final week by Remain - that single pro-Yes poll caused all manner of panic.
Incidentally the betting must move soon, what with all these smoke signals indicating panic at Number 10. HMG will, I am quite sure, be paying for the best private polling.
I reckon LEAVE is now about 5/4 and REMAIN 4/5. What a time to be alive.
I'm beginning to wonder if a Vow will be produced in the final week by Remain - that single pro-Yes poll caused all manner of panic.
Do we have a list of the PBers who are paid to make comments by foreign governments or indeed anyone other organisation ?
And how do you become one of these paid posters ? How much do they get paid ? Do you have to pay tax on these earnings ?
Start saying Pro-Putin things and they'll contact you.
Do we get an invite to a reception at the Soviet embassy to discuss terms .... ?
Which site member recently was honey trapped there .... I can't immediately recall .... which LibDem, founder of PB, occasional 50/1 POTUS bet winning, follicularly challenged, seventy year old with a birthday yesterday, it was .... but it'll come to me soon ....
Morning all. Hope you all give the podcast a listen and share. The polling certainly still seems to point towards a Remain vote but with no room for complacency right now.
I saw someone throw around an accusation of bias because Leo is openly pro Remain and say we should have some Pro Leave guests on.
Just to point out a couple of months ago that we did have Douglas Carswell on!
Incidentally the betting must move soon, what with all these smoke signals indicating panic at Number 10. HMG will, I am quite sure, be paying for the best private polling.
I reckon LEAVE is now about 5/4 and REMAIN 4/5. What a time to be alive.
I'm beginning to wonder if a Vow will be produced in the final week by Remain - that single pro-Yes poll caused all manner of panic.
If there is it would expose Cameron's 'renegotiation' as a sham.
Incidentally the betting must move soon, what with all these smoke signals indicating panic at Number 10. HMG will, I am quite sure, be paying for the best private polling.
I reckon LEAVE is now about 5/4 and REMAIN 4/5. What a time to be alive.
I'm beginning to wonder if a Vow will be produced in the final week by Remain - that single pro-Yes poll caused all manner of panic.
There are so many echoes of the Scottish referendum in this. Alastair Darling's biggest problem for the debates, and it was a major problem for BT as a whole, Ruth Davidson apart, was that he had real problems articulating a love of Britain, particularly when it had a Tory/coalition government. This gave Salmond a massive advantage, particularly with the heart brigade.
On the Remain side I don't think anyone other than maybe Nick Clegg, has any admiration for the EU. They are very happy making economic arguments for it in the same way BT did for the Union. They will go so far as saying that the alternatives are worse. But they really can't pretend it is good or developing in a way that we as a country want.
So when Boris comes out with EU subsidies for Spanish bull fighting (now stopped but how the hell did it ever start) or Greek tobacco Remain are immediately on the defensive. The response to date has been to give the EU credit for things it has at best peripheral credit for such as stopping world war 3 and to argue that it gives the UK leverage in world affairs. That's about as good as it gets and that is struggling to be credible.
What we also saw in the Scottish referendum is that economic arguments can still win. Will it be enough this time?
Where I think Leave needs to focus on is The Rest Of The World view. The EU is the Little Insiders Club - whose fortunes are declining compared to our trade with everyone else. There's solid stats to support this and changing the game from talking about 28 countries to the whole world is a powerful one.
Leave IMO have spent too much time getting bogged down in trade agreements or not, rather than totting up what we already make from global non-EU trade.
Presumably if LEAVE wasn't so desperately poor and badly run, LEAVE would be 26 points ahead and Cameron would have already resigned.
Yeah but that polling average is skewed by only having online polls in them. I suspect in a week's time when the phone polls come out that average will show Remain with a hefty lead.
Incidentally the betting must move soon, what with all these smoke signals indicating panic at Number 10. HMG will, I am quite sure, be paying for the best private polling.
I reckon LEAVE is now about 5/4 and REMAIN 4/5. What a time to be alive.
I've been interested in polling since I met Survation last year, Ukip were paying them and they consistently overrated Ukip. I read on here no polls are coming out ie nobody is paying for them.
Your talk about private polling runs paralel with what I've been saying for ages, Remain don't like what they're seeing and don't need to spend money to find that out. This Farage debate is desperation by Cameron, of course if he pulls it off he's a hero but I can't believe they find themselves here.
Morning all. Hope you all give the podcast a listen and share. The polling certainly still seems to point towards a Remain vote but with no room for complacency right now.
I saw someone throw around an accusation of bias because Leo is openly pro Remain and say we should have some Pro Leave guests on.
Just to point out a couple of months ago that we did have Douglas Carswell on!
Incidentally the betting must move soon, what with all these smoke signals indicating panic at Number 10. HMG will, I am quite sure, be paying for the best private polling.
I reckon LEAVE is now about 5/4 and REMAIN 4/5. What a time to be alive.
I'm beginning to wonder if a Vow will be produced in the final week by Remain - that single pro-Yes poll caused all manner of panic.
I'm sure something like that will be done. But will anyone believe it?
It's not the same as the Scottish situation where the PM could credibly promise some extra goodies for Scotland because he was in the position to deliver them.
With the EU, any 'vow' that related to the UK's relationship with the EU would need to be agreed with the other members. So it's not credibly deliverable - especially as the PM was supposed to have been 'renegotiating' months ago, and (so we are told) already got all the concessions possible.
Once upon a time, such a 'vow' might have centred on promising to veto various things - but that's close to being an empty vessel now too as the veto is limited to such a small number of areas.
Perhaps the PM will reverse his recent position on Turkish membership?
This is a great scoop for ITV but above all else this is what Nigel has worked for over 20 years, to debate with a pro EU PM days before an EU referendum. This is the occasion that will absolutely define his career, there'll be no damp squib, no score draws, everything he's ever worked for will be encapsulated in an hour or so.
snip
I think, and without wishing to provoke our northern neighbours, it would be a bit like the SPL champions taking on the PL champions. Although respectively top of their tree, the SPL champions would usually expect to get a shellacking.
You misunderestimate Dave at your peril. He is PM and has had everyone throw rubbish his way on every subject from the EU to the spare room subsidy. He is an operator. Nige has rarely not had to answer a tricky question, or to evade a potentially dangerous line of reasoning because he always wants to answer as many EU questions as possible, and usually knows more than his interviewer. Dave is the master at interviewing, ie being a politician, which is more important than being the master of his subject.
Nige is excellent on his day and great fun to watch, and has the nation shouting "gertcha" from its armchair, but Cam he ain't.
Everything you say is correct, but as a Cameron fan downthread says, when rattled he can appear vindictive, I referred to Flashman. Nigel will goad him mercilessly, Cameron is no fool but I believe its a massive risk and clearly one he feels forced into taking.
Pontification pre event is one thing, Remain can't believe they've allowed a situation to arise where Farage has Cameron cornered, its extraordinary. (They hate each other btw)
IIRC it's Cameron and Farage taking questions from an audience, in turn. That was the same for Cameron and Miliband last year.
The trouble for Leave is (and Remain know it) is that Farage is a total turnoff for floating voters. It doesn't matter how good he is on the night if he's toxic - people won't listen. And someone will ask about Russia and Putin, and Nigel will say what he thinks.
Cameron will then quite happily paint Farage, Galloway, Putin and Le Pen into the same box.
The only saving grace is that Cameron doesn't have quite the same allure that he did last year to floating voters.
Hence Remain's pathetic and transparent attempt to paint Boris as a Putin apologist. He was rightly very irked.
Another OTT response from Remain Has anyone seen some of the recent campaign tweets from StrongerIn official account? Incredibly juvenile photoshopping playground stuff.
This is a great scoop for ITV but above all else this is what Nigel has worked for over 20 years, to debate with a pro EU PM days before an EU referendum. This is the occasion that will absolutely define his career, there'll be no damp squib, no score draws, everything he's ever worked for will be encapsulated in an hour or so.
snip
I think, and without wishing to provoke our northern neighbours, it would be a bit like the SPL champions taking on the PL champions. Although respectively top of their tree, the SPL champions would usually expect to get a shellacking.
You misunderestimate Dave at your peril. He is PM and has had everyone throw rubbish his way on every subject from the EU to the spare room subsidy. He is an operator. Nige has rarely not had to answer a tricky question, or to evade a potentially dangerous line of reasoning because he always wants to answer as many EU questions as possible, and usually knows more than his interviewer. Dave is the master at interviewing, ie being a politician, which is more important than being the master of his subject.
Nige is excellent on his day and great fun to watch, and has the nation shouting "gertcha" from its armchair, but Cam he ain't.
I think that it very much depends on the audience watching the debate in the TV studio. Their reactions to what is and isn't said will shape how viewers see things. A real turning point in the Scottish referendum was the very vocal and hostile reaction that Alastair Darling got in the second debate from SNP supporters in the room. After that the polls started to move very sharply to the Yes side.
Exactly right. That 2nd debate was a crucial pivot in indyref, and nearly won it for YES. Cameron must know this, of course, which means he really believes he is losing. Everything now points that way. Therefore he has no choice.
Astonishing, really. I picture the Cameron household, and David secretly kicking the cat in helpless anger.
I think the pre-briefing of WAR!!! was the disaster point for Remain so far. That Cameron had his speech rewritten early the next morning is neither here nor there - the damage was done.
Anyone who isn't terminally nerdy saw the headlines in the press/on the TV and heard WAR!!
A massive PR mistake and blows other appeals to authority out of the water - Leave can use this absurd hyperbole to undermine all of Remains various threats. And those threats are turning voters away from Remain. It's blindingly obvious.
The threat of war with Portugal has changed me over to Remain.
I'm off to a lovely villa in the Algarve in August and I don't want to take the family out there heavily armed.
BTW have we had any tweets from Osborne about recent economic data or has he given up his day job and is now only concerned with turning every school into an academy and in creating extra layers of government in random parts of England ?
I'm awaiting the ONS today publishing the NINO numbers. I gather HMG is hoping they'll get buried under a Syria vote and the BBC stuff. 0930 is the usual time.
Morning all. Hope you all give the podcast a listen and share. The polling certainly still seems to point towards a Remain vote but with no room for complacency right now.
I saw someone throw around an accusation of bias because Leo is openly pro Remain and say we should have some Pro Leave guests on.
Just to point out a couple of months ago that we did have Douglas Carswell on!
Anyway, you can't please everyone when doing this sort of thing but I thought I would point it out for those less familiar with the show.
Perhaps always having a balanced team would be helpful - pointing out that Douglas was on once is the exception that proves the rule.
____
Morning Plato. I think any accusation of inbalance in the team would be more valid if our analysis was objectively biased / or campaigning which it isn't. For example this week we cover.
1) Can't be 100% sure online polls are the wrong ones
2) Turnout is key to the outcome - Leave voters more committed and less likely to change mind
3) Whilst fundamentals are with Remain the personal finances argument is far from conclusive in the realm of public opinion. Most think it will make no difference.
4) Immigration is key & people think there will be less if we Leave. Some signs people think NHS better out of EU.
Nevertheless we cannot escape the balance of probabilities are with Remain given the PM and business community is Remain and we know voters are risk adverse in referendums. It is also perfectly reasonable to point out that most polls are online which gives a different view than if most polls were phone.
Anyway, not to labour the point but give it a listen and welcome any thoughts. I think the podcast is very fair and balanced.
On the Remain side I don't think anyone other than maybe Nick Clegg, has any admiration for the EU. They are very happy making economic arguments for it in the same way BT did for the Union. They will go so far as saying that the alternatives are worse. But they really can't pretend it is good or developing in a way that we as a country want.
Gordon's speech got a good response among the faithful on just this point - "At last someone speaking for Remain has made a really powerful, positive case". One journalist sais it reminded him of the best of Gordon as a compelling campaigner in the 90s.
I expect that Leavers thought it was nonsense, of course. There seems a bit of a shortage of people willing to concede that someone on the other side has put their case well even if they don't agree with it. I'm no better.
By the way, yesterday's email contained an invitation to the first NINE Labour canvass sessions in Tooting. They aren't messing about. That's on top of the events and canvassing for the referendum. My ward party, which has 500 members (about the same as the whole of Broxtowe constituency pre-2010), has the highest voter contact rate that I've ever seen (up to 85% in the strongest area, 60% overall, in a high-turnover area) and that was reflected in possibly the highest Mayoral turnout in London (estimated at 60%). This is of course of limited use in a GE, but in an all-London or all-UK vote it does help. They don't half keep us working at it.
Presumably if LEAVE wasn't so desperately poor and badly run, LEAVE would be 26 points ahead and Cameron would have already resigned.
Yeah but that polling average is skewed by only having online polls in them. I suspect in a week's time when the phone polls come out that average will show Remain with a hefty lead.
Last year Remain was miles clear now the worst case scenario is Leave have massively closed the gap but we keep being told Leave are a shambles.
All those people telling us how Leicester would bottle it before long.
The threat of war with Portugal has changed me over to Remain.
I'm off to a lovely villa in the Algarve in August and I don't want to take the family out there heavily armed.
This shit is real.
"There were two secret signals in the military coup: first the airing (at 10:55 pm) by 'Emissores Associados de Lisboa' of the song "E Depois do Adeus" by Paulo de Carvalho, Portugal's entry in the 6 April 1974 Eurovision Song Contest, which alerted the rebel captains and soldiers to begin the coup."
Presumably if LEAVE wasn't so desperately poor and badly run, LEAVE would be 26 points ahead and Cameron would have already resigned.
Yeah but that polling average is skewed by only having online polls in them. I suspect in a week's time when the phone polls come out that average will show Remain with a hefty lead.
But your remarks are still fucking stupid. Everyone in the world and possibly people on Neptune knows that this is now very tight. Even REMAINIANS - the honest ones - admit it. Cameron's behavior proves it.
Given the overwhelming advantages possessed by REMAIN - about which the europhiles used to gloat (not so much now) - this is a remarkable performance by the LEAVERS.
If you still think LEAVE are running a terrible campaign, in that light, one can only conclude that the REMAIN campaign is yet worse, absolutely dire, or that the public simply don't want what REMAIN is selling, and the more they hear about it, the less impressed they get. In which case, the vote will be LEAVE.
I said on Sunday both campaigns were running dire campaigns to date.
The threat of war with Portugal has changed me over to Remain.
I'm off to a lovely villa in the Algarve in August and I don't want to take the family out there heavily armed.
This shit is real.
"There were two secret signals in the military coup: first the airing (at 10:55 pm) by 'Emissores Associados de Lisboa' of the song "E Depois do Adeus" by Paulo de Carvalho, Portugal's entry in the 6 April 1974 Eurovision Song Contest, which alerted the rebel captains and soldiers to begin the coup."
Presumably if LEAVE wasn't so desperately poor and badly run, LEAVE would be 26 points ahead and Cameron would have already resigned.
Yeah but that polling average is skewed by only having online polls in them. I suspect in a week's time when the phone polls come out that average will show Remain with a hefty lead.
But your remarks are still fucking stupid. Everyone in the world and possibly people on Neptune knows that this is now very tight. Even REMAINIANS - the honest ones - admit it. Cameron's behavior proves it.
Given the overwhelming advantages possessed by REMAIN - about which the europhiles used to gloat (not so much now) - this is a remarkable performance by the LEAVERS.
If you still think LEAVE are running a terrible campaign, in that light, one can only conclude that the REMAIN campaign is yet worse, absolutely dire, or that the public simply don't want what REMAIN is selling, and the more they hear about it, the less impressed they get. In which case, the vote will be LEAVE.
Even the telephone polls are far tighter than they were last year. Ipsos MORI has gone from 66/22% Remain last June to 49/39% now (50/44% when taking certainty to vote into account). Com Res has gone from leads of 25% + to leads of 7-11%.
I think Remain are running a very efficient campaign. Their problem is that they're trying to sell a very unappealing product.
Presumably if LEAVE wasn't so desperately poor and badly run, LEAVE would be 26 points ahead and Cameron would have already resigned.
Yeah but that polling average is skewed by only having online polls in them. I suspect in a week's time when the phone polls come out that average will show Remain with a hefty lead.
But your remarks are still fucking stupid. Everyone in the world and possibly people on Neptune knows that this is now very tight. Even REMAINIANS - the honest ones - admit it. Cameron's behavior proves it.
Given the overwhelming advantages possessed by REMAIN - about which the europhiles used to gloat (not so much now) - this is a remarkable performance by the LEAVERS.
If you still think LEAVE are running a terrible campaign, in that light, one can only conclude that the REMAIN campaign is yet worse, absolutely dire, or that the public simply don't want what REMAIN is selling, and the more they hear about it, the less impressed they get. In which case, the vote will be LEAVE.
I'm prepared to bet it'll be comfortably 55/45 remain. at least.
@georgeeaton: Vote Leave statement confirms they believe Farage is Remain's secret weapon.
Cameron isn't trusted by the public on the EU for good reason, he'll be dreading the debate as much as Farage will be relishing it.
Cameron's Trust Rating with swing voters is appalling. Boris' is much better. I honestly believed Cameron would be very hard to beat - and yet he's self-destructed again and again. Pressure has a most peculiar effect on people. He's not responding well to it here.
Presumably if LEAVE wasn't so desperately poor and badly run, LEAVE would be 26 points ahead and Cameron would have already resigned.
Yeah but that polling average is skewed by only having online polls in them. I suspect in a week's time when the phone polls come out that average will show Remain with a hefty lead.
Last year Remain was miles clear now the worst case scenario is Leave have massively closed the gap but we keep being told Leave are a shambles.
All those people telling us how Leicester would bottle it before long.
Don't be silly. The LEAVE campaign is laughably bad and they're utterly "desperate", that's why LEAVE is, uh, winning.
To use a bit of colourful language, the problem REMAIN has is that their pitch (in the eyes of a lot of the voters) amounts to 'eat sh*t or you will be eating sh*t'.
It's not going to enthuse people other than the small minority who actually get off on that sort of thing...
On the Remain side I don't think anyone other than maybe Nick Clegg, has any admiration for the EU. They are very happy making economic arguments for it in the same way BT did for the Union. They will go so far as saying that the alternatives are worse. But they really can't pretend it is good or developing in a way that we as a country want.
Gordon's speech got a good response among the faithful on just this point - "At last someone speaking for Remain has made a really powerful, positive case". One journalist sais it reminded him of the best of Gordon as a compelling campaigner in the 90s.
I expect that Leavers thought it was nonsense, of course. There seems a bit of a shortage of people willing to concede that someone on the other side has put their case well even if they don't agree with it. I'm no better.
By the way, yesterday's email contained an invitation to the first NINE Labour canvass sessions in Tooting. They aren't messing about. That's on top of the events and canvassing for the referendum. My ward party, which has 500 members (about the same as the whole of Broxtowe constituency pre-2010), has the highest voter contact rate that I've ever seen (up to 85% in the strongest area, 60% overall, in a high-turnover area) and that was reflected in possibly the highest Mayoral turnout in London (estimated at 60%). This is of course of limited use in a GE, but in an all-London or all-UK vote it does help. They don't half keep us working at it.
Any thoughts on the prospective Labour candidates Nick?
Presumably if LEAVE wasn't so desperately poor and badly run, LEAVE would be 26 points ahead and Cameron would have already resigned.
Yeah but that polling average is skewed by only having online polls in them. I suspect in a week's time when the phone polls come out that average will show Remain with a hefty lead.
But your remarks are still fucking stupid. Everyone in the world and possibly people on Neptune knows that this is now very tight. Even REMAINIANS - the honest ones - admit it. Cameron's behavior proves it.
Given the overwhelming advantages possessed by REMAIN - about which the europhiles used to gloat (not so much now) - this is a remarkable performance by the LEAVERS.
If you still think LEAVE are running a terrible campaign, in that light, one can only conclude that the REMAIN campaign is yet worse, absolutely dire, or that the public simply don't want what REMAIN is selling, and the more they hear about it, the less impressed they get. In which case, the vote will be LEAVE.
I said on Sunday both campaigns were running dire campaigns to date.
But all the evidence suggests Leave's campaign has been highly effective
The threat of war with Portugal has changed me over to Remain.
I'm off to a lovely villa in the Algarve in August and I don't want to take the family out there heavily armed.
This shit is real.
"There were two secret signals in the military coup: first the airing (at 10:55 pm) by 'Emissores Associados de Lisboa' of the song "E Depois do Adeus" by Paulo de Carvalho, Portugal's entry in the 6 April 1974 Eurovision Song Contest, which alerted the rebel captains and soldiers to begin the coup."
What's Portugal's entry called this year?
That's it. I'm off to Devon!
When visiting Europe I tend to visit places where revolutions don't take very long.
Incidentally the betting must move soon, what with all these smoke signals indicating panic at Number 10. HMG will, I am quite sure, be paying for the best private polling.
I reckon LEAVE is now about 5/4 and REMAIN 4/5. What a time to be alive.
I'm beginning to wonder if a Vow will be produced in the final week by Remain - that single pro-Yes poll caused all manner of panic.
maybe that's why Gordon's back :-)
I saw a bit of Gordon's speech and Golly!! he's so aggressive. Pacing to-and-fro across the stage, jabbing his finger, almost roaring at his audience.
I was most put off. I barely heard a word - his whole manner is menacing.
Presumably if LEAVE wasn't so desperately poor and badly run, LEAVE would be 26 points ahead and Cameron would have already resigned.
Yeah but that polling average is skewed by only having online polls in them. I suspect in a week's time when the phone polls come out that average will show Remain with a hefty lead.
But your remarks are still fucking stupid. Everyone in the world and possibly people on Neptune knows that this is now very tight. Even REMAINIANS - the honest ones - admit it. Cameron's behavior proves it.
Given the overwhelming advantages possessed by REMAIN - about which the europhiles used to gloat (not so much now) - this is a remarkable performance by the LEAVERS.
If you still think LEAVE are running a terrible campaign, in that light, one can only conclude that the REMAIN campaign is yet worse, absolutely dire, or that the public simply don't want what REMAIN is selling, and the more they hear about it, the less impressed they get. In which case, the vote will be LEAVE.
I said on Sunday both campaigns were running dire campaigns to date.
Isn't that par for the course for any political campaign these days?
Presumably if LEAVE wasn't so desperately poor and badly run, LEAVE would be 26 points ahead and Cameron would have already resigned.
Yeah but that polling average is skewed by only having online polls in them. I suspect in a week's time when the phone polls come out that average will show Remain with a hefty lead.
But your remarks are still fucking stupid. Everyone in the world and possibly people on Neptune knows that this is now very tight. Even REMAINIANS - the honest ones - admit it. Cameron's behavior proves it.
Given the overwhelming advantages possessed by REMAIN - about which the europhiles used to gloat (not so much now) - this is a remarkable performance by the LEAVERS.
If you still think LEAVE are running a terrible campaign, in that light, one can only conclude that the REMAIN campaign is yet worse, absolutely dire, or that the public simply don't want what REMAIN is selling, and the more they hear about it, the less impressed they get. In which case, the vote will be LEAVE.
Even the telephone polls are far tighter than they were last year. Ipsos MORI has gone from 66/22% Remain last June to 49/39% now (50/44% when taking certainty to vote into account). Com Res has gone from leads of 25% + to leads of 7-11%.
What might help would be for the pollsters to ask "how much would you pay to vote"? I suspect LEAVERS are far more energised and would therefore pay more. (Yes, I know this is "how likely are you to vote" put in other words, but the problem with "how likely" is that people don't like to admit they won't vote so it's not a question that gets trustworthy responses.)
It's quite remarkable, if Cameron is so derided, and the Remain campaign so inept, just how he managed to pull off such a masterstroke that has the Brexiteers threatening legal action to prevent their guy on screen...
Incidentally the betting must move soon, what with all these smoke signals indicating panic at Number 10. HMG will, I am quite sure, be paying for the best private polling.
I reckon LEAVE is now about 5/4 and REMAIN 4/5. What a time to be alive.
I'm beginning to wonder if a Vow will be produced in the final week by Remain - that single pro-Yes poll caused all manner of panic.
maybe that's why Gordon's back :-)
I saw a bit of Gordon's speech and Golly!! he's so aggressive. Pacing to-and-fro across the stage, jabbing his finger, almost roaring at his audience.
I was most put off. I barely heard a word - his whole manner is menacing.
A matter of taste, I still prefer him to your man Cameron.
@georgeeaton: Vote Leave statement confirms they believe Farage is Remain's secret weapon.
Cameron isn't trusted by the public on the EU for good reason, he'll be dreading the debate as much as Farage will be relishing it.
Cameron's Trust Rating with swing voters is appalling. Boris' is much better. I honestly believed Cameron would be very hard to beat - and yet he's self-destructed again and again. Pressure has a most peculiar effect on people. He's not responding well to it here.
If Leave wins (and I still expect Remain to scrape home) I think it will be Cameron's attempt to oversell his renegotiation that did it. Many Conservatives who'd given him the benefit of the doubt, turned against him at that point. They felt he was insulting their intelligence.
Comments
Pontification pre event is one thing, Remain can't believe they've allowed a situation to arise where Farage has Cameron cornered, its extraordinary. (They hate each other btw)
On Cameron vs. FArage, for all the talk farage only appeals to his base, on this issue he in his element and can be quite appealing. In the ge debates he suffers because his positioning needs to be more nuanced, the bringing everything back to the eu just isn't credible for everything, and additionally can make his points convoluted and tortured. In a debate on the eu he can be simple, direct and reinforce peoples dislike of the eu, as most people dislike it even if they are fearing consequences of leaving. Few people are passionate for positive reasons for remains. So it is Cameron who will be making convoluted arguments about technical benefits of membership, or else blunt attacks that don't ring true. So farage should win.
VoteLeAve may well have a point, but is it a fight worth having, particularly as the risk to Cameron us higher than for Leave?
Gove or in my opinion Hannan are much better at the finer points in an argument.
@MSmithsonPB: Well done ITV for fixing this. Cameron & Farage to take part in live EU referendum TV event https://t.co/eNlmQUie06
I'm glad we have less polling. In recent years they've been driving the narrative as much as reflecting it.
Who came down with a terrible fever
What a mess we have got
ITV's in on the plot!
And my tin foil is stuck in the freezer
“We will get out there and we will be become incredibly successful because we will be insecure again. And insecurity is fantastic.”
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/12/billionaire-brexit-donor-leaving-eu-like-dunkirk
Personally I don't think it adds much. People interested in politics react purely according to whether they agree with him - what a sound comment, liberal nonsense, etc. - or they think it's a waste of time. People not interested probably aren't still watching anyway, but if they are they get a piece from the soggy middle ground. The idea of having someone express an AfD or Linke view without a balancing piece is unthinkable.
There are zillions of ways people can get opinion. The unique service of the main TV channels is that they deliver the news with an attempt at balanced factuality. If we muddy that by finding out that, say, Andrew Neil thinks Government policy on housing is garbage. I think we all lose. In fact IMO the TV pundits go too far already in sneaking in their own biases.
The daily YouGov was a menace and I'm delighted it's not a feature right now. As another poster here noted a couple of days ago, using 6 YouGovs to measure anything re polling accuracy doesn't make them 6 pollsters.
This isn't limited to political coverage btw, the same thing can be observed re. for example sports coverage.
I saw someone throw around an accusation of bias because Leo is openly pro Remain and say we should have some Pro Leave guests on.
Just to point out a couple of months ago that we did have Douglas Carswell on!
http://kpedley.podbean.com/e/polling-matters-ep-45-europe-and-ukip-with-douglas-carswell/
Anyway, you can't please everyone when doing this sort of thing but I thought I would point it out for those less familiar with the show.
There are so many echoes of the Scottish referendum in this. Alastair Darling's biggest problem for the debates, and it was a major problem for BT as a whole, Ruth Davidson apart, was that he had real problems articulating a love of Britain, particularly when it had a Tory/coalition government. This gave Salmond a massive advantage, particularly with the heart brigade.
On the Remain side I don't think anyone other than maybe Nick Clegg, has any admiration for the EU. They are very happy making economic arguments for it in the same way BT did for the Union. They will go so far as saying that the alternatives are worse. But they really can't pretend it is good or developing in a way that we as a country want.
So when Boris comes out with EU subsidies for Spanish bull fighting (now stopped but how the hell did it ever start) or Greek tobacco Remain are immediately on the defensive. The response to date has been to give the EU credit for things it has at best peripheral credit for such as stopping world war 3 and to argue that it gives the UK leverage in world affairs. That's about as good as it gets and that is struggling to be credible.
What we also saw in the Scottish referendum is that economic arguments can still win. Will it be enough this time?
The trouble for Leave is (and Remain know it) is that Farage is a total turnoff for floating voters. It doesn't matter how good he is on the night if he's toxic - people won't listen. And someone will ask about Russia and Putin, and Nigel will say what he thinks.
Cameron will then quite happily paint Farage, Galloway, Putin and Le Pen into the same box.
The only saving grace is that Cameron doesn't have quite the same allure that he did last year to floating voters.
And how do you become one of these paid posters ? How much do they get paid ? Do you have to pay tax on these earnings ?
Referendum Induced Piffle.
This feels like a campaign in trouble, desperately thrashing around. Targetting Peston for criticism is the behaviour of a Twitter troll.
Anyone who isn't terminally nerdy saw the headlines in the press/on the TV and heard WAR!!
A massive PR mistake and blows other appeals to authority out of the water - Leave can use this absurd hyperbole to undermine all of Remains various threats. And those threats are turning voters away from Remain. It's blindingly obvious.
Ok, so there'd be less time for each - but it'd be fairer and less contentious.
The problem Remain has, is that if they say "it might be this, it might that" with soft options on both sides, then Leave can safely cry "Freedom" (and little risk) and persuade a lot of people to vote for them.
This puts Remain in the position where they have to threaten The End of The World to try and win. Which isn't working as no one takes them seriously.
The last time they were reacting like that was to Corbyn's 'submarines without missiles' idea.
Its not good making yourself look ridiculous.
I think the pre-briefing of WAR!!! was the disaster point for Remain so far. That Cameron had his speech rewritten early the next morning is neither here nor there - the damage was done.
Anyone who isn't terminally nerdy saw the headlines in the press/on the TV and heard WAR!!
A massive PR mistake and blows other appeals to authority out of the water - Leave can use this absurd hyperbole to undermine all of Remains various threats. And those threats are turning voters away from Remain. It's blindingly obvious.
------------------------------------------------------
------------------------------------------------------
I agree. The public aren't terribly interested in the detail, generally, but they do have a reasonable sense for whether things pass the 'sniff test'.
These recent hysterical warnings just don't do that and are counter-productive for REMAIN.
The hysteria level has been ratcheted up steadily in the face of unfavourable polls, you really wonder where it can go next...
Which site member recently was honey trapped there .... I can't immediately recall .... which LibDem, founder of PB, occasional 50/1 POTUS bet winning, follicularly challenged, seventy year old with a birthday yesterday, it was .... but it'll come to me soon ....
Leave IMO have spent too much time getting bogged down in trade agreements or not, rather than totting up what we already make from global non-EU trade.
How do I get onto the Brussels payroll?
Your talk about private polling runs paralel with what I've been saying for ages, Remain don't like what they're seeing and don't need to spend money to find that out. This Farage debate is desperation by Cameron, of course if he pulls it off he's a hero but I can't believe they find themselves here.
It's not the same as the Scottish situation where the PM could credibly promise some extra goodies for Scotland because he was in the position to deliver them.
With the EU, any 'vow' that related to the UK's relationship with the EU would need to be agreed with the other members. So it's not credibly deliverable - especially as the PM was supposed to have been 'renegotiating' months ago, and (so we are told) already got all the concessions possible.
Once upon a time, such a 'vow' might have centred on promising to veto various things - but that's close to being an empty vessel now too as the veto is limited to such a small number of areas.
Perhaps the PM will reverse his recent position on Turkish membership?
Another OTT response from Remain Has anyone seen some of the recent campaign tweets from StrongerIn official account? Incredibly juvenile photoshopping playground stuff.
I'm off to a lovely villa in the Algarve in August and I don't want to take the family out there heavily armed.
This shit is real.
Morning Plato. I think any accusation of inbalance in the team would be more valid if our analysis was objectively biased / or campaigning which it isn't. For example this week we cover.
1) Can't be 100% sure online polls are the wrong ones
2) Turnout is key to the outcome - Leave voters more committed and less likely to change mind
3) Whilst fundamentals are with Remain the personal finances argument is far from conclusive in the realm of public opinion. Most think it will make no difference.
4) Immigration is key & people think there will be less if we Leave. Some signs people think NHS better out of EU.
Nevertheless we cannot escape the balance of probabilities are with Remain given the PM and business community is Remain and we know voters are risk adverse in referendums. It is also perfectly reasonable to point out that most polls are online which gives a different view than if most polls were phone.
Anyway, not to labour the point but give it a listen and welcome any thoughts. I think the podcast is very fair and balanced.
I expect that Leavers thought it was nonsense, of course. There seems a bit of a shortage of people willing to concede that someone on the other side has put their case well even if they don't agree with it. I'm no better.
By the way, yesterday's email contained an invitation to the first NINE Labour canvass sessions in Tooting. They aren't messing about. That's on top of the events and canvassing for the referendum. My ward party, which has 500 members (about the same as the whole of Broxtowe constituency pre-2010), has the highest voter contact rate that I've ever seen (up to 85% in the strongest area, 60% overall, in a high-turnover area) and that was reflected in possibly the highest Mayoral turnout in London (estimated at 60%). This is of course of limited use in a GE, but in an all-London or all-UK vote it does help. They don't half keep us working at it.
All those people telling us how Leicester would bottle it before long.
What's Portugal's entry called this year?
I think Remain are running a very efficient campaign. Their problem is that they're trying to sell a very unappealing product.
It's not going to enthuse people other than the small minority who actually get off on that sort of thing...
France and Italy spring to mind...
Spain is just a bit too intense for me.
I was most put off. I barely heard a word - his whole manner is menacing.
Are we in the EU? Yes
Have we just entered a new recession? Yes.
Case closed.
VOTE LEAVE!!!