@jamesrbuk: Labour party's talking points summarised: Ed Miliband was such an election-winning juggernaut that it's unfair to compare to his performance
Quite the sensation. Maybe Scotland is slowly coming to its senses.
Anti-SNP rainbow coalition? Bye-bye invincible First Minister Nicola? Not holding my breath, but it wouldn't half be funny to see the SNP impotent in both Westminster AND Holyrood...
Quite the sensation. Maybe Scotland is slowly coming to its senses.
Anti-SNP rainbow coalition? Bye-bye invincible First Minister Nicola? Not holding my breath, but it wouldn't half be funny to see the SNP impotent in both Westminster AND Holyrood...
The chance of an anti-SNP coalition must be very small, surely.
So Corbyn saying Labour wouldn't lose any seats wasn't far off, was he?
Easily a good enough result for him to remain as leader.
That's right, assuming London also goes as we think - the nationl equivalent share in England and Wales is going to be up, the "don't vote Labour, they're a bunch of Islamists" stuff has really not worked in England, and the Welsh result (-2 to 28, probably) looks respectable too. The Scottish outcome is very nasty for Labour, but even Corbyn's critics would concede that we have very particular problems there and the Tories are doing a good job as portraying themselves as the natural party for unionists.
If Khan wins, everyone will spin it different ways. The truth, I think is that he was a genuinely more convincing candidate than Goldsmith - more focused on the popular issues of housing and fares - and Corbyn is a net positive in London. The Tories tried out a series of attack lines - Khan is a friend of the unions (result: most people felt he'd do a better job getting a deal on the Tube), he's a tool of Corbyn (obviously false and not an issue in London anyway) and latterly the "here's a picture of Khan with a bloke you've never heard of who has extreme Islamist views" stuff (meh). Apart from a bit of greenery, I remain unaware what Goldsmith's positive campaign theme was.
I threw the towel in at 1:30am as need to work today. Catching up now.
Looks like my prediction of an appalling night for Labour and 300 lost councillors in England was wrong.
In other words a disaster for Labour.
No arguing with that...
Although it does at least suggest that Labour retain a core of possible voters in the Midlands and South. They just need to find a way not to panic them at general elections!
SLAB will likely have only 3 new faces: Daniel Johnson, Richard Leonard and Monica Lennon. The rest who survived are incumbents + Sarwar and McNeill (who was an MSP from 1999 to 2011)
Nope. I am prepared to pay more tax. But I understand I am in a minority. Scotland, like England, is not a left-wing country - though it's worth noting that parties opposing tax cuts and favouring the 50 pence rate did better in England and Wales than in Scotland.
Indeed, Scotland is not a leftwing country. It's small c conservative. Which is why framing INDY as a left/right battle, with INDY on the left, is a calamity for separatists.
Salmond was astute enough to realize this, and avoid it, likesay.
In terms of demographics remeber Scotland is no Liverpool, it's GDP per head is second only to London and south east and has fewer immigrants also. Vote for left wing parties =/= wanting higher taxes as SLab now know.
Quite the sensation. Maybe Scotland is slowly coming to its senses.
Anti-SNP rainbow coalition? Bye-bye invincible First Minister Nicola? Not holding my breath, but it wouldn't half be funny to see the SNP impotent in both Westminster AND Holyrood...
The chance of an anti-SNP coalition must be very small, surely.
Labour teaming up with Cons would be their total death warrant. Indepencistas have switched to SNP or Green, the hard core Unionists have switched to Cons. The ones who are left are Labour till they die f*ck the Conservatives. To team up with the cons would be to to disband SLab.
Quite the sensation. Maybe Scotland is slowly coming to its senses.
Anti-SNP rainbow coalition? Bye-bye invincible First Minister Nicola? Not holding my breath, but it wouldn't half be funny to see the SNP impotent in both Westminster AND Holyrood...
The chance of an anti-SNP coalition must be very small, surely.
Labour teaming up with Cons would be their total death warrant. Indepencistas have switched to SNP or Green, the hard core Unionists have switched to Cons. The ones who are left are Labour till they die f*ck the Conservatives. To team up with the cons would be to to disband SLab.
SLAB will likely have only 3 new faces: Daniel Johnson, Richard Leonard and Monica Lennon. The rest who survived are incumbents + Sarwar and McNeill (who was an MSP from 1999 to 2011)
An even shallower pool in which to fish for a new leader.
Quite the sensation. Maybe Scotland is slowly coming to its senses.
Anti-SNP rainbow coalition? Bye-bye invincible First Minister Nicola? Not holding my breath, but it wouldn't half be funny to see the SNP impotent in both Westminster AND Holyrood...
The chance of an anti-SNP coalition must be very small, surely.
The judgment for all the other parties in Scotland must be when is the best time to inflict the greatest harm on the SNP. To have them lose control of the officers of Government would be a seismic shock. But perhaps the better tactic is to keep them kettled in Holyrood, striking down policy where that would be popular, but letting a weakened SNP take the blame for everything that goes wrong...
So Corbyn saying Labour wouldn't lose any seats wasn't far off, was he?
Easily a good enough result for him to remain as leader.
That's right, assuming London also goes as we think - the nationl equivalent share in England and Wales is going to be up, the "don't vote Labour, they're a bunch of Islamists" stuff has really not worked in England, and the Welsh result (-2 to 28, probably) looks respectable too. The Scottish outcome is very nasty for Labour, but even Corbyn's critics would concede that we have very particular problems there and the Tories are doing a good job as portraying themselves as the natural party for unionists.
If Khan wins, everyone will spin it different ways. The truth, I think is that he was a genuinely more convincing candidate than Goldsmith - more focused on the popular issues of housing and fares - and Corbyn is a net positive in London. The Tories tried out a series of attack lines - Khan is a friend of the unions (result: most people felt he'd do a better job getting a deal on the Tube), he's a tool of Corbyn (obviously false and not an issue in London anyway) and latterly the "here's a picture of Khan with a bloke you've never heard of who has extreme Islamist views" stuff (meh). Apart from a bit of greenery, I remain unaware what Goldsmith's positive campaign theme was.
If Corbyn is a net positive in London we should see big GLA gains for Labour today. Khan ran a campaign in which Corbyn did not feature at all.
Corbyn has failed to halt Labour's decline in Scotland, Labour has lost its majority in Wales. In England the party has failed to advance in battleground areas from the catastrophic position it found itself in last year.
We have an inept government led by a party that is split down the middle. Labour has made almost no impression on its lead. Your complacency is not surprising, but in deciding to follow the hard left to comprehensive defeat you are abandoning the people Labour is supposed to care about and consigning them to the mercies of a perpetual Tory rule. Congratulations!
So Corbyn saying Labour wouldn't lose any seats wasn't far off, was he?
Easily a good enough result for him to remain as leader.
That's right, assuming London also goes as we think - the nationl equivalent share in England and Wales is going to be up, the "don't vote Labour, they're a bunch of Islamists" stuff has really not worked in England, and the Welsh result (-2 to 28, probably) looks respectable too. The Scottish outcome is very nasty for Labour, but even Corbyn's critics would concede that we have very particular problems there and the Tories are doing a good job as portraying themselves as the natural party for unionists.
If Khan wins, everyone will spin it different ways. The truth, I think is that he was a genuinely more convincing candidate than Goldsmith - more focused on the popular issues of housing and fares - and Corbyn is a net positive in London. The Tories tried out a series of attack lines - Khan is a friend of the unions (result: most people felt he'd do a better job getting a deal on the Tube), he's a tool of Corbyn (obviously false and not an issue in London anyway) and latterly the "here's a picture of Khan with a bloke you've never heard of who has extreme Islamist views" stuff (meh). Apart from a bit of greenery, I remain unaware what Goldsmith's positive campaign theme was.
@faisalislam: SNP manifesto wording on 2nd indyref, specifically referencing Brexit vote as poss trigger..Not in Green manifesto https://t.co/znEjatJoe3
Because it's interesting to some people, that's why it is important. Don't forget Wiki is global and globally a lesbian party leader is unusual enough to be mentioned.
Who is it interesting to?
Well you picked up on it for starters. For me, I can't think of any other gay or lesbian party leaders we've had before so its noteworthy on that basis alone as SeanT just wrote.
Ted Heath (probably)?
Martin Webster was the first openly gay leader of a political party, the National Front, from 1980-84.
Do you think it's the uniforms that first attached him?
Because it's interesting to some people, that's why it is important. Don't forget Wiki is global and globally a lesbian party leader is unusual enough to be mentioned.
Who is it interesting to?
Well you picked up on it for starters. For me, I can't think of any other gay or lesbian party leaders we've had before so its noteworthy on that basis alone as SeanT just wrote.
Ted Heath (probably)?
Martin Webster was the first openly gay leader of a political party, the National Front, from 1980-84.
One of my earliest memories of PB was off you listing the exotic sexual behaviour of the Far Right in the UK
Bizarrely, the official policy of the NF was to criminalise homosexuality.
I threw the towel in at 1:30am as need to work today. Catching up now.
Looks like my prediction of an appalling night for Labour and 300 lost councillors in England was wrong.
In other words a disaster for Labour.
No arguing with that...
Although it does at least suggest that Labour retain a core of possible voters in the Midlands and South. They just need to find a way not to panic them at general elections!
Without seeing the numbers, I expect that in the South, UKIP have taken a large number of Conservative votes from 2015, but not enough to make big gains.
So Corbyn saying Labour wouldn't lose any seats wasn't far off, was he?
Easily a good enough result for him to remain as leader.
If Corbyn is a net positive in London we should see big GLA gains for Labour today. Khan ran a campaign in which Corbyn did not feature at all.
Corbyn has failed to halt Labour's decline in Scotland, Labour has lost its majority in Wales. In England the party has failed to advance in battleground areas from the catastrophic position it found itself in last year.
We have an inept government led by a party that is split down the middle. Labour has made almost no impression on its lead. Your complacency is not surprising, but in deciding to follow the hard left to comprehensive defeat you are abandoning the people Labour is supposed to care about and consigning them to the mercies of a perpetual Tory rule. Congratulations!
I know you've been legendarily open-minded about his Jezness throughout his tenure, but if you don't mind me saying, that seems quite a carefully crafted test. From what I can see so far we have the following
- very poor Labour performance in Scotland (but due to quite specific factors as SeanT has commented and in line with Miliband's performance there) - moderately poor Labour and slightly worse Conservative performance in Wales: doesn't look too bad for GE equivalent unless Plaid make a massive breakthrough - better than forecast Labour performance in English locals, looking at share of vote, which is the only realistic comparator - likely substantial success for Labour in London, though maybe not stellar (hence, I assume, your requirement for "big GLA gains" for it to be called a success
On the "battleground areas" test, what's the position (I'm not disagreeing with you, I genuinely don't know)? Are we seeing Labour improving the position in England generally, but only where it doesn't matter?
It would be a big error to try to cobble together an anti-SNP coalition whose members have nothing in common with each other. It would be a shambles.
If the Conservatives can corner the right wing Unionist vote in Scotland, they can regain several middle class, and rural seats, making their position in the Commons a lot more comfortable.
It's hard to see where SLAB goes from here. They're like the Liberals after 1920. They no longer have a clear purpose, and they're getting squeezed from both ends.
The swing to Labour in Sheffield Brightside with both Tories and UKIP down is striking. I don't know the area at all, but it seems to include Hillsborough, where the football disaster happened on which the report recently vindicated campaigners like Andy Burnham. Might that be relevant?
Huge vote in Scotland for tax cutting parties that oppose raising top rate to 50 pence. First time since 1955 that the Tories have won more votes than Labour there.
I am sure the Tories beat Labour in Scotland at the 1968 Local elections - possibly also 1969.
Comments
BBC forecasting team Scottish Parl seats forecast
SNP 63
Con 31
Lab 24
Grn 6
LD 5
Well done Antifrank
Did superb in Scotland and fine in England which wasn't the bloodbath for Labour, which should keep Jez save.
I threw the towel in at 1:30am as need to work today. Catching up now.
Looks like my prediction of an appalling night for Labour and 300 lost councillors in England was wrong.
In other words a disaster for Labour.
If Khan wins, everyone will spin it different ways. The truth, I think is that he was a genuinely more convincing candidate than Goldsmith - more focused on the popular issues of housing and fares - and Corbyn is a net positive in London. The Tories tried out a series of attack lines - Khan is a friend of the unions (result: most people felt he'd do a better job getting a deal on the Tube), he's a tool of Corbyn (obviously false and not an issue in London anyway) and latterly the "here's a picture of Khan with a bloke you've never heard of who has extreme Islamist views" stuff (meh). Apart from a bit of greenery, I remain unaware what Goldsmith's positive campaign theme was.
Although it does at least suggest that Labour retain a core of possible voters in the Midlands and South. They just need to find a way not to panic them at general elections!
Nope. I am prepared to pay more tax. But I understand I am in a minority. Scotland, like England, is not a left-wing country - though it's worth noting that parties opposing tax cuts and favouring the 50 pence rate did better in England and Wales than in Scotland.
Indeed, Scotland is not a leftwing country. It's small c conservative. Which is why framing INDY as a left/right battle, with INDY on the left, is a calamity for separatists.
Salmond was astute enough to realize this, and avoid it, likesay.
In terms of demographics remeber Scotland is no Liverpool, it's GDP per head is second only to London and south east and has fewer immigrants also. Vote for left wing parties =/= wanting higher taxes as SLab now know.
Neil Bibby MSP LAB
Mary Fee MSP LAB
Ken Macintosh MSP LAB
Jamie Greene CON
Maurice Golden CON
Maurice Corry CON
Ross Greer Greens
I am genuinely surprised by how low the SNP constituency vote is.
It is a new reality not a temporary thing.
Tories 44k ahead on regional list at the moment.
SNP 46.5
Lab 22.6
Con 22.0
LD 7.8
UKIP 2
Plaid 1
Con 1
Truly the result of the night
It looks like Scots have got used to voting. Good for democracy good for Remain.
Nathan Gill MEP and Margaret Brown for UKIP
Llyr Griffith AM for Plaid Cymru
Mark Isherwood AM for the Conservatives
Corbyn has failed to halt Labour's decline in Scotland, Labour has lost its majority in Wales. In England the party has failed to advance in battleground areas from the catastrophic position it found itself in last year.
We have an inept government led by a party that is split down the middle. Labour has made almost no impression on its lead. Your complacency is not surprising, but in deciding to follow the hard left to comprehensive defeat you are abandoning the people Labour is supposed to care about and consigning them to the mercies of a perpetual Tory rule. Congratulations!
Vote share 34.7% - down 7.5%.
(After 39 of 40 seats)
Right?
102030 more pandas....According to her ladyship !! ....
Time for a rainbow coalition (against the SNP)?
@Frasergrant: An SNP/Green Indy alliance v a Tory opposition is the perfect climate for winning indyref2.
ROFLMAO
Jeremy Cliffe @JeremyCliffe · 6m6 minutes ago
Diane Abbott trolling Khan: "More people have heard of Jeremy than have heard of Sadiq. In London, it’s all about Jeremy."
NEW THREAD!
NEW THREAD NEW THREAD
- very poor Labour performance in Scotland (but due to quite specific factors as SeanT has commented and in line with Miliband's performance there)
- moderately poor Labour and slightly worse Conservative performance in Wales: doesn't look too bad for GE equivalent unless Plaid make a massive breakthrough
- better than forecast Labour performance in English locals, looking at share of vote, which is the only realistic comparator
- likely substantial success for Labour in London, though maybe not stellar (hence, I assume, your requirement for "big GLA gains" for it to be called a success
On the "battleground areas" test, what's the position (I'm not disagreeing with you, I genuinely don't know)? Are we seeing Labour improving the position in England generally, but only where it doesn't matter?
Wales dull as mostly static, and Labour not thrashed in England.
If the Conservatives can corner the right wing Unionist vote in Scotland, they can regain several middle class, and rural seats, making their position in the Commons a lot more comfortable.
It's hard to see where SLAB goes from here. They're like the Liberals after 1920. They no longer have a clear purpose, and they're getting squeezed from both ends.