Unionist vote organising itself against the snp particularly where tories or lib dems clear leader. Labour areas much less clear thanks to their incompetence.
The other two are only down 1 and 2 points. SNP down 12.
Seems that bit of the electorate that voted snp but no in the referendum have gone to the tories. Aberdeenshire had a lot of those sort of voters.
@NCPoliticsUK: Early results in Wales suggest swings bang in line with YouGov's poll. In Scotland all the polls seem to have had SNP to high, CON too low
Amazing result for Douglas Ross in Moray, and in Angus Robertson's backyard! But its the Scots Conservative % increase in vote in those Labour heartland constituency seats which is utterly amazing so far!
We were waiting for you to come on fitalass! Edinburgh central rumours extraordinary.
@NCPoliticsUK: Early results in Wales suggest swings bang in line with YouGov's poll. In Scotland all the polls seem to have had SNP to high, CON too low
I'm always wary when people, and pb is guilty of this, extrapolate from results into 'truisms.' So, for instance, we get a batch of the following truisms that have been expounded on here:
Boris is always overstated It's always about the economy The Tories always under-perform London polls The Tories are always over-stated (up until GE 2015 this was an accepted truism) The Tories can't win outright with a public school leader ^^ ditto ^^ Negative attacks work: yep they may have for GE2015 but I mean just look at EdM. The strategy has gone tits up with Zac, showing that Lynton Crosby is very fallible after all
The ^^ above ^^ isn't me being critical, but just warning. And especially do NOT extrapolate from tonight's results please to the EU vote. They are different entities. I'm not sure what's going to happen and I don't think anyone else really is.
Rumour that Ruth Davidson may have triumphed in Edinburgh Central!!!!!
Amazing if true, from fourth to first?
Well I am not going to bed now.
I don't believe I am saying this, but thanks to the Libdems for making sure that what ever else happens tonight, I will break even on my betting on their performance so far!! I got a report a few days ago of Scots Conservatives jumping from 4th to 2nd in canvassing from a Tory source who had it backed up from his local sitting SNP opponents team in a seat near mine!
Odd result in Wirral in terms of votes: a swing to the Tories compared to 2015 but a swing to Labour compared to 2012, the opposite of most other places.
Scottish independence surely less likely after tonight - even with Brexit.
If the SNP fail to gain a majority it makes it more difficult for them to claim a mandate- and how to account for such failure? Too much Independence or not enough?
Cons & Lab sources both think Cons gain Dumfriesshire from Labour
Ahem. Another one I predicted.
That result would be one of the highlights of my night, up there with Annie Wells if she manages to win that elusive 2nd list seat for Scots Conservatives in Glasgow List!! Will do a jig if Oliver Mundell beats the awful Joan McAlpine!
Cons & Lab sources both think Cons gain Dumfriesshire from Labour
Ahem. Another one I predicted.
That result would be one of the highlights of my night, up there with Annie Wells managing to win that elusive 2nd list seat for Scots Conservatives in Glasgow!! Will do a jig if Oliver Mundell beats the awful Joan McAlpine!
I think he has! Well, that's what we've been hearing...
Rumour that Ruth Davidson may have triumphed in Edinburgh Central!!!!!
Amazing if true, from fourth to first?
Well I am not going to bed now.
I don't believe I am saying this, but thanks to the Libdems for making sure that what ever else happens tonight, I will break even on my betting on their performance so far!! I got a report a few days ago of Scots Conservatives jumping from 4th to 2nd in canvassing from a Tory source who had it backed up from his local sitting SNP opponents team in a seat near mine!
This the best result for the Tories in Scotland in my adult life.
Rumour that Ruth Davidson may have triumphed in Edinburgh Central!!!!!
Amazing if true, from fourth to first?
Well I am not going to bed now.
I don't believe I am saying this, but thanks to the Libdems for making sure that what ever else happens tonight, I will break even on my betting on their performance so far!! I got a report a few days ago of Scots Conservatives jumping from 4th to 2nd in canvassing from a Tory source who had it backed up from his local sitting SNP opponents team in a seat near mine!
This the best result for the Tories in Scotland in my adult life.
Rumour that Ruth Davidson may have triumphed in Edinburgh Central!!!!!
Amazing if true, from fourth to first?
Well I am not going to bed now.
I don't believe I am saying this, but thanks to the Libdems for making sure that what ever else happens tonight, I will break even on my betting on their performance so far!! I got a report a few days ago of Scots Conservatives jumping from 4th to 2nd in canvassing from a Tory source who had it backed up from his local sitting SNP opponents team in a seat near mine!
This the best result for the Tories in Scotland in my adult life.
Rumour that Ruth Davidson may have triumphed in Edinburgh Central!!!!!
Amazing if true, from fourth to first?
Well I am not going to bed now.
I don't believe I am saying this, but thanks to the Libdems for making sure that what ever else happens tonight, I will break even on my betting on their performance so far!! I got a report a few days ago of Scots Conservatives jumping from 4th to 2nd in canvassing from a Tory source who had it backed up from his local sitting SNP opponents team in a seat near mine!
This the best result for the Tories in Scotland in my adult life.
Were you an adult in 1992?
Yes but we gained 1 seat that night and did not recover the huge damage sustained in 87. This feels like a real recovery at last.
Rumour that Ruth Davidson may have triumphed in Edinburgh Central!!!!!
Amazing if true, from fourth to first?
Well I am not going to bed now.
I don't believe I am saying this, but thanks to the Libdems for making sure that what ever else happens tonight, I will break even on my betting on their performance so far!! I got a report a few days ago of Scots Conservatives jumping from 4th to 2nd in canvassing from a Tory source who had it backed up from his local sitting SNP opponents team in a seat near mine!
This the best result for the Tories in Scotland in my adult life.
Absolutely, was just saying the same thing to Son No3. I had a cheeky wee bet on Ruth in Edinburgh Central on the back of her campaign performance and poll rating. But I won't be too disappointed if she doesn't quite pull it off, especially if she ends up Leader of the Opposition at Holyrood!! Another interesting trend tonight, has been the first signs of No voters finally working how to tactically vote against SNP in those stronger No areas in Indy Ref. One to watch tonight and in the future, that Indy Ref really did divisively split Scotland in a way that shows no signs of healing.
Rumour that Ruth Davidson may have triumphed in Edinburgh Central!!!!!
Amazing if true, from fourth to first?
Well I am not going to bed now.
I don't believe I am saying this, but thanks to the Libdems for making sure that what ever else happens tonight, I will break even on my betting on their performance so far!! I got a report a few days ago of Scots Conservatives jumping from 4th to 2nd in canvassing from a Tory source who had it backed up from his local sitting SNP opponents team in a seat near mine!
This the best result for the Tories in Scotland in my adult life.
Were you an adult in 1992?
Yes but we gained 1 seat that night and did not recover the huge damage sustained in 87. This feels like a real recovery at last.
I'd be intrigued to know what extent or otherwise this is a personal vote for Ruth Davidson, and what extent it's a genuine resurgence for the Tories as a whole?
John Curtice seems to be overstepping the line from giving a considered analysis into indulging his own opinions. And that is not his usual style.
I have no Beeb here what are.his opinions ?
There was just something in his tone that felt different to this time last year. Hard to pin down - but just too many adjectives and adverbs being used to colour his comments.
It is a growing trend on the BBC where reporting and analysis is taking second place to allowing 'reporters' to give you their opinion.
Norwich almost a complete wipe out for Greens . 4 out of 5 seats lost to Labour . Lib Dems held their 1 seat . Conservatives have no seats on the council
Norwich almost a complete wipe out for Greens . 4 out of 5 seats lost to Labour . Lib Dems held their 1 seat . Conservatives have no seats on the council
Wasn't that one of their power bases, or am I thinking of Ipswich?
Norwich almost a complete wipe out for Greens . 4 out of 5 seats lost to Labour . Lib Dems held their 1 seat . Conservatives have no seats on the council
Wasn't that one of their power bases, or am I thinking of Ipswich?
All those Greenies who've voted Labour under Corbyn, I suspect. 21% who voted Green at GE2015 have joined Labour IIRC
Comments
SNP: 47.7% (−1.2)
CON: 28.0% (+12.9)
LAB: 20.1% (-10.1)
LDEM: 4.1% (-0.1)
SNP: 47.7% (−1.2)
CON: 28.0% (+12.9)
LAB: 20.1% (-10.1)
LDEM: 4.1% (-0.1)
Ross Hawkins @rosschawkins
Cons & Lab sources both think Cons gain Dumfriesshire from Labour
Lab 44.6
UKIP 20.9
Con 18.2
LD 7.2
Plaid 6.7
Green 2.4
SNP: 48.6% (-12.3)
CON: 38.8% (+12.5)
LAB: 7.7% (-1.3)
LDEM: 5.0% (+1.0)
SNP no change
Lab -9%
Con +8%
LD +1%
SNP: 43.5% (+1.3)
CON: 22.9% (+9.7)
LAB: 21.1% (-15.8)
LDEM: 12.5% (+4.7)
Boris is always overstated
It's always about the economy
The Tories always under-perform London polls
The Tories are always over-stated (up until GE 2015 this was an accepted truism)
The Tories can't win outright with a public school leader ^^ ditto ^^
Negative attacks work: yep they may have for GE2015 but I mean just look at EdM. The strategy has gone tits up with Zac, showing that Lynton Crosby is very fallible after all
The ^^ above ^^ isn't me being critical, but just warning. And especially do NOT extrapolate from tonight's results please to the EU vote. They are different entities. I'm not sure what's going to happen and I don't think anyone else really is.
Lab 45
UKIP 22.2
Plaid 19.5
Lab 39.7 (-24.3)
Plaid 36.6 (+31.2)
SNP landslided it in West Dunbartonshire in 2015.
Oh good they just found another two unopened ballot boxes here in the Vale, to much hilarity
Compared to 2012:
Lab -0.5%
Con -1.2%
LD -2.8%
UKIP +5.7%
Greens -0.1%
Ind +0.4%
Others -1.4%
Compared to 2015:
Lab +4.1%
Con -3.5%
LD +3.1%
UKIP -3.4%
Greens -0.6%
Ind +0.1%
Others +0.3%
In Merthyr, Islwyn, Newport East and Swansea East they are at similar level of 2015. Here they are 20 points down on last year too.
It is a growing trend on the BBC where reporting and analysis is taking second place to allowing 'reporters' to give you their opinion.
Cynon Valley: Lab hold. 31% majority
Tactical anti SNP voting.
Lab 22.1
Con 21.9
Labour gain 2 from Lib Dem
Lib Dem gain 1 from Conservative and 1 from Labour
#SP16
After 42 of 73 constituencies
SNP 47.2% (+0.1%)
LABOUR 22.1% (-9.2%)
CONSERVATIVES 21.9% (+8.1%)
LD 8.3% (+1.7%)
OTH 0.5% (0%)
Any thoughts on the other Aberdeenshire seats?
SNP: 45.8% (-18.7)
CON: 29.0% (+15.1)
LDEM: 19.0% (+5.0)
LAB: 6.2% (-1.4)