Sky News Dugdale fails to win constituency seat but may still be elected on regional list
It really ought not to be possible for people to stand for both the regional list and an individual constituency. Make a choice - and live with the democratic result.
Isn't that what Leanne did?
Very possibly - but that doesn't make it right.
No, I was wondering if Leanna only stood in the constituency.
I see the "Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party" as 3.9% of the list vote. Not enough to get a list seat I suppose?
No. There are only 12 seats in each region, so the threshold for winning a seat is about 7% (the actual amount depends on the constituency seats and the vote split, because there are not enough top-up seats to make it properly proportional).
An ironic sidenote: it's possible Corbyn's "prediction" that Labour will not lose seats in England might come true. Overall. The prediction he had to laboriously retract.
Well they already have lost seats - not yet near three figures - but they have still lost them. The first opposition to do so in 3 decades.
They might win lots and lots in the counts later this morning - but it is looking unlikely
Unlikely - but not impossible.
This is good as we really want Corbyn in situ.
The significant retreat in vote share in Wales and Scotland is going to hamper any possibility of Labour progress.
But Corbyn doesn't really see anything outside of his Islington blinkers
I agree that he is safe - for now.
It is a bad night for Labour - just not bad enough to encourage a challenge.
Yes, it's very difficult for Labour to come back in Westminster without a significant recovery in Scotland. But it's hard to see that happening before 2025. And maybe never, with the SNP now entrenched as the centre left party north of the border.
The one grain of hope for Labour is the first signs of Nat decline at Holyrood. This win for Sturgeon feels a bit like Blair in 2005. The wheels will come off the SNP bus, probably in this parliament. Nothing is forever.
Though if SLAB gets closer to extinction and the SNP becomes a devolutionist rather than seperatist party then a formal Westminster pact may well be more viable.
I see the "Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party" as 3.9% of the list vote. Not enough to get a list seat I suppose?
No. There are only 12 seats in each region, so the threshold for winning a seat is about 7% (the actual amount depends on the constituency seats and the vote split, because there are not enough top-up seats to make it properly proportional).
So how many assembly top up seats will the kippers get?
Delighted to just hear that Annie Wells has just become the Scottish Conservatives 2nd MSP on Glasgow list. We now have as many Glasgow MSPs as we have Pandas in Edinburgh!
Vs 2015, it's Con -3, Lab +3 so overall just about a tie (Con won GE by 6.5%)
But that's based on England only.
(As BBC local key wards analysis is England only).
And I suspect they have chosen that way of presenting the figures very carefully.
The BBC are looking as hard as they can to find ways of making this a bad night for the Tories.
Just caught up with the Labour talking points that were revealed on air by Laura K. And the official Labour line was to do a comparison with 2015 rather than 2012. She made the point that the only accurate measure was to compare like with like.
And what are the BBC doing? Following the Labour line.
Looks like there'll be plenty for the Stupid party's useful idiots to latch onto from the results. So Corbyn will remain in place to lead them to catastrophe in 2020.
Anas Sarwar Johan Lamont James Kelly Pauline McNeill
Labour will do themselves no favours by sticking that bunch of proven losers in through the backdoor. Ruth OTOH has done herself a huge turn by WINNING properly.
Looks like there'll be plenty gor the Stupid party's useful idiots to latch onto from the results. So Corbyn will remain in place to lead them to catastrophe in 2020.
From tonights results it looks as if Corbyn will not win in 2020 (though who knows what might happen in a Tory Inner vs Outer bloodbath) but hardly a catastrophe, and its hard to imagine a campaign going any worse than last weeks Nazier than you news.
Vs 2015, it's Con -3, Lab +3 so overall just about a tie (Con won GE by 6.5%)
But that's based on England only.
(As BBC local key wards analysis is England only).
And I suspect they have chosen that way of presenting the figures very carefully.
The BBC are looking as hard as they can to find ways of making this a bad night for the Tories.
Just caught up with the Labour talking points that were revealed on air by Laura K. And the official Labour line was to do a comparison with 2015 rather than 2012. She made the point that the only accurate measure was to compare like with like.
And what are the BBC doing? Following the Labour line.
A 3% swing, compared to 2015, implies a Conservative lead of 3.5% in England. Add in the Scottish and Welsh results, and the Conservatives would be about 3% ahead in Great Britain.
I see the "Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party" as 3.9% of the list vote. Not enough to get a list seat I suppose?
No. There are only 12 seats in each region, so the threshold for winning a seat is about 7% (the actual amount depends on the constituency seats and the vote split, because there are not enough top-up seats to make it properly proportional).
So how many assembly top up seats will the kippers get?
Probably 1 or 2 in each region, depending on how they are spread or split.
Vs 2015, it's Con -3, Lab +3 so overall just about a tie (Con won GE by 6.5%)
But that's based on England only.
(As BBC local key wards analysis is England only).
And I suspect they have chosen that way of presenting the figures very carefully.
The BBC are looking as hard as they can to find ways of making this a bad night for the Tories.
Just caught up with the Labour talking points that were revealed on air by Laura K. And the official Labour line was to do a comparison with 2015 rather than 2012. She made the point that the only accurate measure was to compare like with like.
And what are the BBC doing? Following the Labour line.
A 3% swing, compared to 2015, implies a Conservative lead of 3.5% in England. Add in the Scottish and Welsh results, and the Conservatives would be about 3% ahead in Great Britain.
Which is, of course, pretty much what the polls are saying. A good night for them.
Not much sign of an anti-Cameron backlash on these results.
Looks like there'll be plenty gor the Stupid party's useful idiots to latch onto from the results. So Corbyn will remain in place to lead them to catastrophe in 2020.
From tonights results it looks as if Corbyn will not win in 2020 (though who knows what might happen in a Tory Inner vs Outer bloodbath) but hardly a catastrophe, and its hard to imagine a campaign going any worse than last weeks Nazier than you news.
Labour will be hammered in 2020. The anti-Semitism stuff has only just begun. The Stupid party's leadership has spent decades cosying up to Jew-haters and baiters, that can't be expunged. And we've still got all the other associations and anti-western positions to drip out, plus the abandonment of Trident to work through. Let's also remember this inept government has hardly been setting the world on fire. The headlines for the Tories haven't been exactly wonderful.
Looks like there'll be plenty for the Stupid party's useful idiots to latch onto from the results. So Corbyn will remain in place to lead them to catastrophe in 2020.
It's looks to me like Sadiq Khan could well end up as leader of the sane wing of the labour party in the medium/long term.
Looks like there'll be plenty for the Stupid party's useful idiots to latch onto from the results. So Corbyn will remain in place to lead them to catastrophe in 2020.
It's looks to me like Sadiq Khan could well end up as leader of the sane wing of the labour party in the medium/long term.
40/1 to replace Corbyn....
He can only be a candidate if he is an MP. And that seems unlikely.
Vs 2015, it's Con -3, Lab +3 so overall just about a tie (Con won GE by 6.5%)
But that's based on England only.
(As BBC local key wards analysis is England only).
And I suspect they have chosen that way of presenting the figures very carefully.
The BBC are looking as hard as they can to find ways of making this a bad night for the Tories.
Just caught up with the Labour talking points that were revealed on air by Laura K. And the official Labour line was to do a comparison with 2015 rather than 2012. She made the point that the only accurate measure was to compare like with like.
And what are the BBC doing? Following the Labour line.
A 3% swing, compared to 2015, implies a Conservative lead of 3.5% in England. Add in the Scottish and Welsh results, and the Conservatives would be about 3% ahead in Great Britain.
Which is, of course, pretty much what the polls are saying. A good night for them.
Not much sign of an anti-Cameron backlash on these results.
Indeed not. The worry for Cameron, on an otherwise pretty satisfactory night, is the fact the polls are proving accurate, as I just mentioned. That implies the EU vote really IS very tight.
The phone and online polls can't both be right, though. It's only tight if the online polls are correct.
By my [hasty!] calcs, Labour were next in line in all three regions so far. i.e. if there had been one more list seat awarded in each region, they would have got it.
Vs 2015, it's Con -3, Lab +3 so overall just about a tie (Con won GE by 6.5%)
But that's based on England only.
(As BBC local key wards analysis is England only).
And I suspect they have chosen that way of presenting the figures very carefully.
The BBC are looking as hard as they can to find ways of making this a bad night for the Tories.
Just caught up with the Labour talking points that were revealed on air by Laura K. And the official Labour line was to do a comparison with 2015 rather than 2012. She made the point that the only accurate measure was to compare like with like.
And what are the BBC doing? Following the Labour line.
A 3% swing, compared to 2015, implies a Conservative lead of 3.5% in England. Add in the Scottish and Welsh results, and the Conservatives would be about 3% ahead in Great Britain.
Which is, of course, pretty much what the polls are saying. A good night for them.
Not much sign of an anti-Cameron backlash on these results.
Indeed not. The worry for Cameron, on an otherwise pretty satisfactory night, is the fact the polls are proving accurate, as I just mentioned. That implies the EU vote really IS very tight.
The phone and online polls can't both be right, though. It's only tight if the online polls are correct.
Is Ipsos' Scotland polling by telephone?
If so, SNP 51 Lab 19 Con 18 LD 6
Result (with two left is) is SNP 47 Lab 23 Con 21 LD 7
By my [hasty!] calcs, Labour were next in line in all three regions so far. i.e. if there had been one more list seat awarded in each region, they would have got it.
Heart of stone etc.
Although I don't feel too bad enjoying Labour's defeat.. I do feel bad for the individuals involved. Must suck for Dugdale to be the only leader not to be elected in a constituency, for instance.
Looks like there'll be plenty for the Stupid party's useful idiots to latch onto from the results. So Corbyn will remain in place to lead them to catastrophe in 2020.
It's looks to me like Sadiq Khan could well end up as leader of the sane wing of the labour party in the medium/long term.
40/1 to replace Corbyn....
Sadie Khan's big problem is that you have to be in Parliament to be Labour leader. Unless there's a coup immediately, he won't be.
Another pathetic result for the Lib Dems in Cambridge. Poor policies, poor campaigning, poor candidates. All those new members; same tired faces on the ballot paper
Looks like there'll be plenty for the Stupid party's useful idiots to latch onto from the results. So Corbyn will remain in place to lead them to catastrophe in 2020.
It's looks to me like Sadiq Khan could well end up as leader of the sane wing of the labour party in the medium/long term.
40/1 to replace Corbyn....
Sadie Khan's big problem is that you have to be in Parliament to be Labour leader. Unless there's a coup immediately, he won't be.
There'll be no coup. Labour members like to lose with Jezza and the hard left.
Looks like there'll be plenty for the Stupid party's useful idiots to latch onto from the results. So Corbyn will remain in place to lead them to catastrophe in 2020.
It's looks to me like Sadiq Khan could well end up as leader of the sane wing of the labour party in the medium/long term.
40/1 to replace Corbyn....
Sadie Khan's big problem is that you have to be in Parliament to be Labour leader. Unless there's a coup immediately, he won't be.
He could decide he's not resigning from Parliament afterall couldn't he? There's nothing automatic in the process.
Vs 2015, it's Con -3, Lab +3 so overall just about a tie (Con won GE by 6.5%)
But that's based on England only.
(As BBC local key wards analysis is England only).
And I suspect they have chosen that way of presenting the figures very carefully.
The BBC are looking as hard as they can to find ways of making this a bad night for the Tories.
Just caught up with the Labour talking points that were revealed on air by Laura K. And the official Labour line was to do a comparison with 2015 rather than 2012. She made the point that the only accurate measure was to compare like with like.
And what are the BBC doing? Following the Labour line.
A 3% swing, compared to 2015, implies a Conservative lead of 3.5% in England. Add in the Scottish and Welsh results, and the Conservatives would be about 3% ahead in Great Britain.
Which is, of course, pretty much what the polls are saying. A good night for them.
Not much sign of an anti-Cameron backlash on these results.
Indeed not. The worry for Cameron, on an otherwise pretty satisfactory night, is the fact the polls are proving accurate, as I just mentioned. That implies the EU vote really IS very tight.
Predictions are always being talked up as tight. It is in the interest of both factions to motivate their voters and for the media a two horse race is more interesting. I am not convinced though.
Sky News Dugdale fails to win constituency seat but may still be elected on regional list
It really ought not to be possible for people to stand for both the regional list and an individual constituency. Make a choice - and live with the democratic result.
Looks like there'll be plenty for the Stupid party's useful idiots to latch onto from the results. So Corbyn will remain in place to lead them to catastrophe in 2020.
It's looks to me like Sadiq Khan could well end up as leader of the sane wing of the labour party in the medium/long term.
40/1 to replace Corbyn....
Sadie Khan's big problem is that you have to be in Parliament to be Labour leader. Unless there's a coup immediately, he won't be.
He could decide he's not resigning from Parliament afterall couldn't he? There's nothing automatic in the process.
Wouldn't be a great way of starting your term as Mayor would it, breaking a promise to stand down as MP. I also find it hard to imagine he could simultaneously be party leader while being Mayor? Unless he resigns from being Mayor, I guess...
Sky News Dugdale fails to win constituency seat but may still be elected on regional list
It really ought not to be possible for people to stand for both the regional list and an individual constituency. Make a choice - and live with the democratic result.
Isn't that what Leanne did?
and, er, Ruth Davidson.
Yep.... one of the reasons I prefer good old FPTP
I think you're the first SNP supporter to join us today, what are your thoughts?
I've always liked Zac Goldsmith but I'm amazed he stooped so low in his campaign, it seems to me that his heart wasn't really in it looking at the silly staged photo of him with a pint. He's finished which is a shame.
Congratulations to Ruth Davidson, an extraordinary achievement. Standing in a safe seat is child's play, swimming upstream as she has done is challenging and she has proved her worth, the type of politician I would support.
Looks like there'll be plenty for the Stupid party's useful idiots to latch onto from the results. So Corbyn will remain in place to lead them to catastrophe in 2020.
It's looks to me like Sadiq Khan could well end up as leader of the sane wing of the labour party in the medium/long term.
40/1 to replace Corbyn....
Sadie Khan's big problem is that you have to be in Parliament to be Labour leader. Unless there's a coup immediately, he won't be.
He could decide he's not resigning from Parliament afterall couldn't he? There's nothing automatic in the process.
Absolutely. From what I've googled, he seems to have been intentionally ambiguous about his plans re; tooting.
It's also worth noting that his majority is small and a b/e could be a bit risky for lab.
I've always liked Zac Goldsmith but I'm amazed he stooped so low in his campaign, it seems to me that his heart wasn't really in it looking at the silly staged photo of him with a pint. He's finished which is a shame.
Congratulations to Ruth Davidson, an extraordinary achievement. Standing in a safe seat is child's play, swimming upstream as she has done is challenging and she has proved her worth, the type of politician I would support.
Davidson is a potential Tory leader in London, if she ever wants the gig. Naturally gifted politician.
I really hope she isn't poached. Scotland (or Wales for that matter), shouldn't be some sort of gestation pod where politicians are developed, only to be removed once they actually achieve something.
I've always liked Zac Goldsmith but I'm amazed he stooped so low in his campaign, it seems to me that his heart wasn't really in it looking at the silly staged photo of him with a pint. He's finished which is a shame.
Congratulations to Ruth Davidson, an extraordinary achievement. Standing in a safe seat is child's play, swimming upstream as she has done is challenging and she has proved her worth, the type of politician I would support.
Davidson is a potential Tory leader in London, if she ever wants the gig. Naturally gifted politician.
Pedantic but I don't believe politicians are gifted, the good ones get there through sheer hard graft, that's what she's done.
She's a welcome change from the sharp suited college autocue readers we're stuck with.
I've always liked Zac Goldsmith but I'm amazed he stooped so low in his campaign, it seems to me that his heart wasn't really in it looking at the silly staged photo of him with a pint. He's finished which is a shame.
Congratulations to Ruth Davidson, an extraordinary achievement. Standing in a safe seat is child's play, swimming upstream as she has done is challenging and she has proved her worth, the type of politician I would support.
Davidson is a potential Tory leader in London, if she ever wants the gig. Naturally gifted politician.
I really hope she isn't poached. Scotland (or Wales for that matter), shouldn't be some sort of gestation pod where politicians are developed, only to be removed once they actually achieve something.
I think she's said she'd never take the job in London. But given the opportunity to play on a much bigger stage...
Be dangerous territory for any UK-wide party to have a Scot as leader while the SNP are so strong as a Yes vote in a second referendum would defenestrate that leader.
I've always liked Zac Goldsmith but I'm amazed he stooped so low in his campaign, it seems to me that his heart wasn't really in it looking at the silly staged photo of him with a pint. He's finished which is a shame.
Congratulations to Ruth Davidson, an extraordinary achievement. Standing in a safe seat is child's play, swimming upstream as she has done is challenging and she has proved her worth, the type of politician I would support.
Davidson is a potential Tory leader in London, if she ever wants the gig. Naturally gifted politician.
I really hope she isn't poached. Scotland (or Wales for that matter), shouldn't be some sort of gestation pod where politicians are developed, only to be removed once they actually achieve something.
I think she's said she'd never take the job in London. But given the opportunity to play on a much bigger stage...
Seant, Ruth has again made it clear that she won't leave Scottish politics.
I think you're the first SNP supporter to join us today, what are your thoughts?
Some of us were at the electoral coalface, the glamour of which wears off pretty quickly.
Disappointing that the SNP looks like not getting a majority, though in a George Best 'where did it all go wrong' kinda way. Good that Andy Wightman got a list place, he'd be an asset to any parliament.
Longer term it looks like Unionism is coalescing around centre right Toryism, and Indy round centre left 'progressiveness' which clarifies things. That leaves an ever more restricted space for SLab to live in. I expect they'll do yet another reverse ferret on the policies that helped them lose their latest test and end up further confusing themselves and voters.
I've always liked Zac Goldsmith but I'm amazed he stooped so low in his campaign, it seems to me that his heart wasn't really in it looking at the silly staged photo of him with a pint. He's finished which is a shame.
Congratulations to Ruth Davidson, an extraordinary achievement. Standing in a safe seat is child's play, swimming upstream as she has done is challenging and she has proved her worth, the type of politician I would support.
Davidson is a potential Tory leader in London, if she ever wants the gig. Naturally gifted politician.
I really hope she isn't poached. Scotland (or Wales for that matter), shouldn't be some sort of gestation pod where politicians are developed, only to be removed once they actually achieve something.
I think she's said she'd never take the job in London. But given the opportunity to play on a much bigger stage...
Ruth doing well is good news for Stephen Crabb, both through a process of osmosis and also because she'd very probably campaign for him.
Comments
http://twitter.com/BBCAileenClarke/status/728444208533491712/photo/1
Checked wiki, and she stood on both.
Cardiff South - Lab hold. 22% majority
Must have been a while since Glasgow was more Tory than Labour
FPT - What a cracking photo of OGH’s grandfather on the stumps.
Is Sky still running theirs?
But that's based on England only.
(As BBC local key wards analysis is England only).
Emphasising "status quo" - with a potential big Con plus in Scotland.
The BBC are looking as hard as they can to find ways of making this a bad night for the Tories.
BBC Parliament has the Scottish coverage.
They also said (with equal prominence) that it's Lab -4, Con 0 vs 2012.
4 Lab
2 Con
1 Green
And what are the BBC doing? Following the Labour line.
Anas Sarwar
Johan Lamont
James Kelly
Pauline McNeill
Adam Tompkins
Annie Wells
Partick Harvey
I'm a Con supporter and I'm bored stiff of the anti BBC spin.
Do enjoy watching Hosie too, and I spy him on the panel.
Why give any coverage to a comparison that you have said is inappropriate?
Someone made that decision. And it undermines their own Political Editor.
I am pro-BBC - but very anti-BBC journalism.
Miles Briggs (Con)
Alison Johnstone (Greens)
Kezia Dugdale (Lab)
Gordon Lindhurst (Con)
Neil Findlay (Lab)
Jeremy Balfour (Con)
Andy Wightman (Green)
3 Con, 2 Lab, 2 Grn
6-4-3-2-1 overall inc constituencies
3 CON
2 GRN
2 LAB
Sorry - can't be bothered with any more partisan knockabout - total waste of time.
4 CON
2 LAB
1 GRN
(8 SNP & 1 LD in the constituencies)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2016/scotland/results
40/1 to replace Corbyn....
4 Conservative
2 Labour
1 Green
Jane Hutt survives again
Murdo Fraser Liz Smith Dean Lockhart Alexander Stewart are the Tory MSPs
and Mark Russell is elected for the Greens
John Curtice says SNP at risk of failing to secure an overall majority.
In that case there's no chance of a referendum.
- SNP may not get majority
- Con comfortably second
Heart of stone etc.
Would they support another referendum?
Also annoyed at my Scottish punting
Meeks NOM going to come in it seems
If so, SNP 51 Lab 19 Con 18 LD 6
Result (with two left is) is SNP 47 Lab 23 Con 21 LD 7
I think you're the first SNP supporter to join us today, what are your thoughts?
I've always liked Zac Goldsmith but I'm amazed he stooped so low in his campaign, it seems to me that his heart wasn't really in it looking at the silly staged photo of him with a pint. He's finished which is a shame.
Congratulations to Ruth Davidson, an extraordinary achievement. Standing in a safe seat is child's play, swimming upstream as she has done is challenging and she has proved her worth, the type of politician I would support.
It's also worth noting that his majority is small and a b/e could be a bit risky for lab.
She's a welcome change from the sharp suited college autocue readers we're stuck with.
Next Tory leader?
Easily a good enough result for him to remain as leader.
Very impressive result for the Scottish Tories. Much better than I thought.
Disappointing that the SNP looks like not getting a majority, though in a George Best 'where did it all go wrong' kinda way. Good that Andy Wightman got a list place, he'd be an asset to any parliament.
Longer term it looks like Unionism is coalescing around centre right Toryism, and Indy round centre left 'progressiveness' which clarifies things. That leaves an ever more restricted space for SLab to live in. I expect they'll do yet another reverse ferret on the policies that helped them lose their latest test and end up further confusing themselves and voters.
Fingers crossed for Coburn.