From the folk that brought you "Dave will never be PM, the coalition won't last, he will lose Scotland, and can't beat Ed Miliband"...
I think Cameron showed them exactly the right amount of humility
You're being wilfully silly, now.
The people who are really really pissed off, on this website, and elsewhere, are people who had a lot of respect for Cameron, and expected him to negotiate a good deal, or else to admit he couldn't negotiate a good deal. Not me or Richard Tyndall, but people like Marquee Mark, David L, Mortimer and Cyclefree.
He didn't seem that bothered until Boris joined LEAVE... Flailing now
That's because he feels now the danger that he's losing.
I have a working theory (if Leave wins) that Gove could take over, take us out, and then resign for a more popular figure to be elected in time for the 2020GE.
He is not about ego. He is about principles. And he's absolutely the man I'd want in the negotiating room.
I think that is quite a perceptive point. I've argued here many times that, in the event of a Leave vote, we'd have to have a leader and PM who actually wanted to leave the EU, in order to handle the negotiations. Personally, I'd be dead against Liam Fox, or DD, who are both too flaky. Boris looks seriously damaged with he 'This-is-all-about-me' antics, which have merely served to emphasise doubts people have had about him. Owen Paterson would be credible but is not particularly congenial.
The one senior figure on the Leave side who has come out of this affair with his reputation enhanced with both sides is Gove. Whether you agree with his final stance or not, it's clearly principled and respectful of other views. He'd thus be a unifying figure in a Leave scenario.
Of course, if the result is Remain this doesn't apply. In that scenario, it seems to me that Theresa May is the one whose case has been strengthened by the Great Divide, again because she looks principled and respectful of other views.
France can implement whatever border checks it wants if there is a genuine terrorist threat, as can any other country. Schengen makes provision for exceptional circumstances.
Where I will agree with you is that the EU's border policy is betwixt and between. If you are going to have a single border area then you need a single border force to police it, also funded centrally. And you need a single immigration policy. This whole crisis has come about because the leader of one member state unilaterally amended her country's immigration policy so substantially that the border forces of the front-line states (especially the small one most in the front line) were overwhelmed and couldn't call on support from elsewhere.
This kind of thing seems to be a problem with the structure of EU. Pool, but not pool effectively (i.e. centralise where necessary), and as a result, things are ineffective but there's "nobody in charge so it's nobody's fault in particular". It's not just immigration. The Eurozone economy would be in much less of a hole if there was a proper Eurozone Treasury (rather than e.g. Greece playing fast and loose with the rules and then Germany cranking up a self-defeating masochism in retaliation).
I sometimes wonder whether things are only left half-done out of some Monnet-style conspiratorial strategising: throw something together that doesn't quite work, so you can claim you need to centralise even more power later to fix it. But I reckon it's mostly the downside of trying to cobble an agreement together between more than two dozen states. Ultimately that kind of multilateral negotiation process leads to worse outcomes. There's a reason the US ultimately took the federal option.
The number of people claiming they will vote, not out of conscience, not for what is best for them, or their family, or their kids, but just to spite Cameron is amazing.
The number of people claiming they will vote, not out of conscience, not for what is best for them, or their family, or their kids, but just to spite Cameron is amazing.
The number of people claiming they will vote, not out of conscience, not for what is best for them, or their family, or their kids, but just to spite Cameron is amazing.
I bet he regrets winning now...
Becareful what you wish for, you might get it. If Labour voters decide based purely on your assumption then Remainers will have no one left.
Last comment for tonight, unless something happens:
Cameron used his position as PM to attack Boris today, so this is becoming personal. What weapons can Boris use from his position as Mayor of London to counter attack?
I knew the "renegotiation" was just a charade because if Cameron was serious he'd have kept the "nuclear option" (leaving) on the table rather than ruling it out three bloody years ago.
Fair point, but being realistic about outcomes and anticipating the response from his own party Cameron should have dampened down expectations long ago. But he's still trying to sell this joke deal which is miles away from what he set out to achieve back in 2014.
From the folk that brought you "Dave will never be PM, the coalition won't last, he will lose Scotland, and can't beat Ed Miliband"...
I think Cameron showed them exactly the right amount of humility
You're being wilfully silly, now.
The people who are really really pissed off, on this website, and elsewhere, are people who had a lot of respect for Cameron, and expected him to negotiate a good deal, or else to admit he couldn't negotiate a good deal. Not me or Richard Tyndall, but people like Marquee Mark, David L, Mortimer and Cyclefree.
Dave has done what everyone with half a brain knew he'd do: promise the moon to keep Tory right wingers away from UKIP prior to the election, then deliver the square root of F'all once it was won. He was never going to get much out of Brussels and he was never going to advocate leaving the EU. It's all pnned out entirely as expected. Those crying betrayal now clearly weren't watching for the last four years.
The next "betrayal" will come when Leavers who weren't properly watching and listening cry foul over our Brexit terms.
If there was never any chance of getting anything out of the EU, then thats reason enough to leave on its own.no point in paying £20 bn a year for something you can't change.
The number of people claiming they will vote, not out of conscience, not for what is best for them, or their family, or their kids, but just to spite Cameron is amazing.
I bet he regrets winning now...
Becareful what you wish for, you might get it. If Labour voters decide based purely on your assumption then Remainers will have no one left.
I think Labour voters dislike Farage and Gove more than Cameron.
I will vote out because it was less than I expected .
You were quite happy to be in, until Cameron brought back a better deal, at which point you can no longer stand it.
As I said, curious
But it's not a better deal, that's the point.
First we had a bad deal, then heaping helpings of lazy, transparent mendacity to back it up. I was always a BOOer, but Cameron's turned me into an ex-conservative.
Despite everything I've wrote recently, if there was a general election tomorrow I'd still vote Consevative and for Cameron as PM.
Reason being there are other issue's to consider than Europe and Corbyn is such a dire alternative...
However, if Labour get someone even half decent and the Tories are mad enough to give the leadership to Osborne, that could easily change.
Last comment for tonight, unless something happens:
Cameron used his position as PM to attack Boris today, so this is becoming personal. What weapons can Boris use from his position as Mayor of London to counter attack?
Goodnight.
Boris bikes? His ability to decline mensa, mensa, mensam? Splutter, splutter, shake head, refer to Tacitus, fall over, evade question?
All those Labourites depressed to bits by seeing Ed Miliband get pulverised by David Cameron in the 2015 GE can be thankful for small mercies. In a parallel universe out there somewhere*, Ed Miliband was brutally demolished by BoJo, PM. That's a thought.
* and possibly not all that far away from our own, I don't think it would have taken a huge twist of fate to deliver it
It's just all so ... completely transparent with Boris !
Hmm. I was hopeful that Boris's intervention would give Leave some much-needed stardust. Unfortunately, it's turned the thing into a soap opera. The issues could get drowned out here. It's not all Boris's fault. I blame a vacuous and juvenile media in one of it's frenzies, but this isn't helpful.
Aw, bless, somebody's actually comparing Boris to Winston Churchill.
That's Boris Johnson.
To Winston Churchill.
Ooookayyyy, I think I'll just leave you to it...
And Dave to Neville "Deal in our time" Chamberlain
I'm sure you said something and I'm sure it was interesting and informative. But my brain jumped out of my head at the supernova-class fatuousness of comparing Winston Churchill to Boris Johnson and is hiding under the table with Casino Royale's warm duck until the world makes sense again.
All those Labourites depressed to bits by seeing Ed Miliband get pulverised by David Cameron in the 2015 GE can be thankful for small mercies. In a parallel universe out there somewhere*, Ed Miliband was brutally demolished by BoJo, PM. That's a thought.
* and possibly not all that far away from our own, I don't think it would have taken a huge twist of fate to deliver it
We're now watching amused as Cam beats the shit out of Bojo to make the world safe for social democracy. Before remembering who our party leader is.
Aw, bless, somebody's actually comparing Boris to Winston Churchill.
That's Boris Johnson.
To Winston Churchill.
Ooookayyyy, I think I'll just leave you to it...
And Dave to Neville "Deal in our time" Chamberlain
I'm sure you said something and I'm sure it was interesting and informative. But my brain jumped out of my head at the supernova-class fatuousness of comparing Winston Churchill to Boris Johnson and is hiding under the table with Casino Royale's warm duck until the world makes sense again.
Churchill believed in a "United States of Europe" but didn't think Britain should be part of it, only "on friendly terms" with it.
It's just all so ... completely transparent with Boris !
Hmm. I was hopeful that Boris's intervention would give Leave some much-needed stardust. Unfortunately, it's turned the thing into a soap opera. The issues could get drowned out here. It's not all Boris's fault. I blame a vacuous and juvenile media in one of it's frenzies, but this isn't helpful.
The media is rubbish as usual, but it's a problem that jokey politicians have anyway - Tony Banks and Alan Clark had similar issues. Extremely funny to people who like their brand of humour, they struggle to be taken seriously when they want to be Men of Destiny. Mockery rather than fear is the right counter.
Aw, bless, somebody's actually comparing Boris to Winston Churchill.
That's Boris Johnson.
To Winston Churchill.
Ooookayyyy, I think I'll just leave you to it...
And Dave to Neville "Deal in our time" Chamberlain
I'm sure you said something and I'm sure it was interesting and informative. But my brain jumped out of my head at the supernova-class fatuousness of comparing Winston Churchill to Boris Johnson and is hiding under the table with Casino Royale's warm duck until the world makes sense again.
Churchill believed in a "United States of Europe" but didn't think Britain should be part of it, only "on friendly terms" with it.
Really? I'm pretty sure a "United States of Europe" existed in September 1940 and Churchill wasn't interested on peace with it :-)
.The political class has learnt the square root of nothing from its misjudgment of the general election. It should have been a traumatic lesson in basic truths — that Mr Cameron might be better at politics than a guy with a blog, for example — and also a turning point in the way we distil politics for a lay audience. Breathless hyper-scrutiny of fiddly events could have given way to a discriminating regard for fundamentals. Opinion polls could have returned to their proper place as contextual information, not the story itself. Instead, we still react to transient events like over-caffeinated children. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/0eab8ae4-d943-11e5-a72f-1e7744c66818.html#ixzz40wcxIrYD
Aw, bless, somebody's actually comparing Boris to Winston Churchill.
That's Boris Johnson.
To Winston Churchill.
Ooookayyyy, I think I'll just leave you to it...
And Dave to Neville "Deal in our time" Chamberlain
I'm sure you said something and I'm sure it was interesting and informative. But my brain jumped out of my head at the supernova-class fatuousness of comparing Winston Churchill to Boris Johnson and is hiding under the table with Casino Royale's warm duck until the world makes sense again.
Churchill believed in a "United States of Europe" but didn't think Britain should be part of it, only "on friendly terms" with it.
Really? I'm pretty sure a "United States of Europe" existed in September 1940 and Churchill wasn't interested on peace with it :-)
It's just all so ... completely transparent with Boris !
Hmm. I was hopeful that Boris's intervention would give Leave some much-needed stardust. Unfortunately, it's turned the thing into a soap opera. The issues could get drowned out here. It's not all Boris's fault. I blame a vacuous and juvenile media in one of it's frenzies, but this isn't helpful.
The media is rubbish as usual, but it's a problem that jokey politicians have anyway - Tony Banks and Alan Clark had similar issues. Extremely funny to people who like their brand of humour, they struggle to be taken seriously when they want to be Men of Destiny. Mockery rather than fear is the right counter.
Surely it is Boris fault in this case. If he'd have come out and announced with the other 6 without all the hoopla he'd have avoided the pantomime. And it all happened so he could give an exclusive to his media employers. Johnson judiciously stoked the frenzy.
RCP national GOP polling average: Trump 34.2, Cruz 20.6, Rubio 16.0 Delegates so far: Trump 67. Cruz 11, Rubio 10 Contests won so far: Trump 2, Cruz 1, Rubio 0
to be contrasted with best Betfair odds to back for RepNom:
Trump 1.93, Rubio 2.26, Cruz 55.0 !!
Well, the Trump odds might (at last) make sense.
Trump should probably if anything be a heavier favourite. The Rubio odds are probably more wrong than the Cruz odds.
Laying Rubio/Backing Cruz is a cheap way to build up a nice Green without affecting your Trump (Or Kasich) position though.
Trump is too long. Rubio is too short. Cruz is too long.
Sell Rubio.
I am super sceptical about Cruz's path to the nomination: simply, he's hated by the establishment worse than Trump, the number of evangelical states is pretty small, and he's sharing the religious right vote with Rubio. I can't see him picking up all the states Santorum or Huckabee did, and therefore he has to be pretty long odds. But a less than 2% chance of winning? Ridiculous. I can easily envisage a scenario where he is the non-Trump candidate after Rubio crashes and burns on Super Tuesday, and then something happens to Trump...
Rubio is still shit. He'll win a maximum of one state on Super Tuesday, and if he doesn't win Florida, it's all over for him. (He's Newt, without the personality.)
Aw, bless, somebody's actually comparing Boris to Winston Churchill.
That's Boris Johnson.
To Winston Churchill.
Ooookayyyy, I think I'll just leave you to it...
And Dave to Neville "Deal in our time" Chamberlain
I'm sure you said something and I'm sure it was interesting and informative. But my brain jumped out of my head at the supernova-class fatuousness of comparing Winston Churchill to Boris Johnson and is hiding under the table with Casino Royale's warm duck until the world makes sense again.
Churchill believed in a "United States of Europe" but didn't think Britain should be part of it, only "on friendly terms" with it.
I think that is a very likely end point for us and the continent.
I'm slightly sceptical of that poll, because the Piel poll - the one that has the PVV on 30% - had approx 75% of the Dutch agreeing with the statement "The Euro has been good for the Netherlands", which ties with the TNS poll from November which had a similar proportion.
Of course, the Dutch might want to go the Monaco or Vatican route of being in the Euro, but not the EU.
Aw, bless, somebody's actually comparing Boris to Winston Churchill.
That's Boris Johnson.
To Winston Churchill.
Ooookayyyy, I think I'll just leave you to it...
And Dave to Neville "Deal in our time" Chamberlain
I'm sure you said something and I'm sure it was interesting and informative. But my brain jumped out of my head at the supernova-class fatuousness of comparing Winston Churchill to Boris Johnson and is hiding under the table with Casino Royale's warm duck until the world makes sense again.
Churchill believed in a "United States of Europe" but didn't think Britain should be part of it, only "on friendly terms" with it.
Churchill wanted the British Empire to be on equal terms with it as a superpower. It's pointless to speculate on what Churchill would have said about the present situation.
Chris Ship ✔ @chrisshipitv Our latest research finds at least 120 Tory MPs will vote LEAVE with 79 still to make up mind/declare @itvnews pic.twitter.com/rkSzBdUrYF
Chris Ship ✔ @chrisshipitv Our latest research finds at least 120 Tory MPs will vote LEAVE with 79 still to make up mind/declare @itvnews pic.twitter.com/rkSzBdUrYF
I'm slightly sceptical of that poll, because the Piel poll - the one that has the PVV on 30% - had approx 75% of the Dutch agreeing with the statement "The Euro has been good for the Netherlands", which ties with the TNS poll from November which had a similar proportion.
Of course, the Dutch might want to go the Monaco or Vatican route of being in the Euro, but not the EU.
Do we know what Geert Wilders and his party for freedom think of the EU ?
Could be following the change with Wilders in the polls ?
Chris Ship ✔ @chrisshipitv Our latest research finds at least 120 Tory MPs will vote LEAVE with 79 still to make up mind/declare @itvnews pic.twitter.com/rkSzBdUrYF
I'm slightly sceptical of that poll, because the Piel poll - the one that has the PVV on 30% - had approx 75% of the Dutch agreeing with the statement "The Euro has been good for the Netherlands", which ties with the TNS poll from November which had a similar proportion.
Of course, the Dutch might want to go the Monaco or Vatican route of being in the Euro, but not the EU.
Do we know what Geert Wilders and his party for freedom think of the EU ?
Could be following the change with Wilders in the polls ?
The Piel subsample had more than 50% of PVV supporters agreeing with the Euro statement! Which means PVV (i.e. Geert Wilders) supporters are a lot more Europhilic than the LibDems
That being said, the Dutch - while being very Euro friendly - were very Schengen sceptic, and even more Islamo-concerned (to coin a phrase).
Chris Ship ✔ @chrisshipitv Our latest research finds at least 120 Tory MPs will vote LEAVE with 79 still to make up mind/declare @itvnews pic.twitter.com/rkSzBdUrYF
I'm slightly sceptical of that poll, because the Piel poll - the one that has the PVV on 30% - had approx 75% of the Dutch agreeing with the statement "The Euro has been good for the Netherlands", which ties with the TNS poll from November which had a similar proportion.
Of course, the Dutch might want to go the Monaco or Vatican route of being in the Euro, but not the EU.
Do we know what Geert Wilders and his party for freedom think of the EU ?
Could be following the change with Wilders in the polls ?
The Piel subsample had more than 50% of PVV supporters agreeing with the Euro statement! Which means PVV (i.e. Geert Wilders) supporters are a lot more Europhilic than the LibDems
That being said, the Dutch - while being very Euro friendly - were very Schengen sceptic, and even more Islamo-concerned (to coin a phrase).
It might sound strange to us but leaving the EU and continuing to use the Euro as a currency might make sense from a Dutch point of view, theoretically speaking. Of course the EU would probably refuse to allow the Dutch to use the Euro in practice.
I'm slightly sceptical of that poll, because the Piel poll - the one that has the PVV on 30% - had approx 75% of the Dutch agreeing with the statement "The Euro has been good for the Netherlands", which ties with the TNS poll from November which had a similar proportion.
Of course, the Dutch might want to go the Monaco or Vatican route of being in the Euro, but not the EU.
Do we know what Geert Wilders and his party for freedom think of the EU ?
Could be following the change with Wilders in the polls ?
The Piel subsample had more than 50% of PVV supporters agreeing with the Euro statement! Which means PVV (i.e. Geert Wilders) supporters are a lot more Europhilic than the LibDems
That being said, the Dutch - while being very Euro friendly - were very Schengen sceptic, and even more Islamo-concerned (to coin a phrase).
Chris Ship ✔ @chrisshipitv Our latest research finds at least 120 Tory MPs will vote LEAVE with 79 still to make up mind/declare @itvnews pic.twitter.com/rkSzBdUrYF
I'm slightly sceptical of that poll, because the Piel poll - the one that has the PVV on 30% - had approx 75% of the Dutch agreeing with the statement "The Euro has been good for the Netherlands", which ties with the TNS poll from November which had a similar proportion.
Of course, the Dutch might want to go the Monaco or Vatican route of being in the Euro, but not the EU.
Yes, Wilders is anti-EU but not anti-Euro, which the Dutch generally feel is just practical as it means they don't have to mess about with different currencies with all their immediate neighbours. Primarily, though, he's anti-immigration.
Chris Ship ✔ @chrisshipitv Our latest research finds at least 120 Tory MPs will vote LEAVE with 79 still to make up mind/declare @itvnews pic.twitter.com/rkSzBdUrYF
Re the Netherlands; it's funny. Opinions are never simple. I would have assumed a very high correlation between love of Schengen and love of the Euro. Yet the Dutch are sceptical on the former, and positively enthusiastic on the latter.
I think we forget that small countries often really struggle to borrow in their own currency, and end up borrowing in Euros, Dollars and the like. So, the Baltic states, for example, have never had meaningful local currency government debt markets. (Before the Euro, local savers would rather have German bonds, and the government didn't want to borrow at 8% in Lehti when they could borrow at 2% in Euros.)
If the government is going to end up owing Euros anyway, perhaps it's easier to go the whole hog and just adopt it as the national currency.
Chris Ship ✔ @chrisshipitv Our latest research finds at least 120 Tory MPs will vote LEAVE with 79 still to make up mind/declare @itvnews pic.twitter.com/rkSzBdUrYF
On Sanders, I've borrowed from Rod's GOP sheet and produced a bit of a rough and ready DEM forecaster. His mountain looks enormous, I expect Hilary may well be 1.05 or lower for the nom after ST.
I'm slightly sceptical of that poll, because the Piel poll - the one that has the PVV on 30% - had approx 75% of the Dutch agreeing with the statement "The Euro has been good for the Netherlands", which ties with the TNS poll from November which had a similar proportion.
Of course, the Dutch might want to go the Monaco or Vatican route of being in the Euro, but not the EU.
Yes, Wilders is anti-EU but not anti-Euro, which the Dutch generally feel is just practical as it means they don't have to mess about with different currencies with all their immediate neighbours. Primarily, though, he's anti-immigration.
I'm just waiting for a British politician to suggest simultaneously joining the Euro and leaving the EU
On Sanders, I've borrowed from Rod's GOP sheet and produced a bit of a rough and ready DEM forecaster. His mountain looks enormous, I expect Hilary may well be 1.05 or lower for the nom after ST.
Chris Ship ✔ @chrisshipitv Our latest research finds at least 120 Tory MPs will vote LEAVE with 79 still to make up mind/declare @itvnews pic.twitter.com/rkSzBdUrYF
On Sanders, I've borrowed from Rod's GOP sheet and produced a bit of a rough and ready DEM forecaster. His mountain looks enormous, I expect Hilary may well be 1.05 or lower for the nom after ST.
On Sanders, I've borrowed from Rod's GOP sheet and produced a bit of a rough and ready DEM forecaster. His mountain looks enormous, I expect Hilary may well be 1.05 or lower for the nom after ST.
On Sanders, I've borrowed from Rod's GOP sheet and produced a bit of a rough and ready DEM forecaster. His mountain looks enormous, I expect Hilary may well be 1.05 or lower for the nom after ST.
I'm slightly sceptical of that poll, because the Piel poll - the one that has the PVV on 30% - had approx 75% of the Dutch agreeing with the statement "The Euro has been good for the Netherlands", which ties with the TNS poll from November which had a similar proportion.
Of course, the Dutch might want to go the Monaco or Vatican route of being in the Euro, but not the EU.
Yes, Wilders is anti-EU but not anti-Euro, which the Dutch generally feel is just practical as it means they don't have to mess about with different currencies with all their immediate neighbours. Primarily, though, he's anti-immigration.
I'm just waiting for a British politician to suggest simultaneously joining the Euro and leaving the EU
Kosovo and Montenegro unilaterally use the Euro but are currently non-EU members. Andorra, Monaco, San Marino and the Vatican use the EU with a monetary agreement with the Eurozone
On Sanders, I've borrowed from Rod's GOP sheet and produced a bit of a rough and ready DEM forecaster. His mountain looks enormous, I expect Hilary may well be 1.05 or lower for the nom after ST.
I don';t think its as overwhelming as the spreadsheet indicates, but it's bloody hard for him for sure.
The mass southern black vote is about to deliver for HRC.
The strange thing is if you follow the national poll trajectory, it looks like Bernie will overtake Clinton in about 4 weeks.
Unlike the GOP winner-take-all or nearly all races, which are designed to find the nominee sooner rather than later, the Dem race is much slower, and PR all the way.
On Sanders, I've borrowed from Rod's GOP sheet and produced a bit of a rough and ready DEM forecaster. His mountain looks enormous, I expect Hilary may well be 1.05 or lower for the nom after ST.
I don';t think its as overwhelming as the spreadsheet indicates, but it's bloody hard for him for sure.
The mass southern black vote is about to deliver for HRC.
The strange thing is if you follow the national poll trajectory, it looks like Bernie will overtake Clinton in about 4 weeks.
Unlike the GOP winner-take-all or nearly all races, which are designed to find the nominee sooner rather than later, the Dem race is much slower, and PR all the way.
Bernie has a chance, probably more than we think.
On POTUS right now I am:
Clinton -361.81 Sanders -1149.71
Of course as Sanders catches up, states that are gone have their result in the past though...
On Sanders, I've borrowed from Rod's GOP sheet and produced a bit of a rough and ready DEM forecaster. His mountain looks enormous, I expect Hilary may well be 1.05 or lower for the nom after ST.
I don';t think its as overwhelming as the spreadsheet indicates, but it's bloody hard for him for sure.
The mass southern black vote is about to deliver for HRC.
The strange thing is if you follow the national poll trajectory, it looks like Bernie will overtake Clinton in about 4 weeks.
Unlike the GOP winner-take-all or nearly all races, which are designed to find the nominee sooner rather than later, the Dem race is much slower, and PR all the way.
Bernie has a chance, probably more than we think.
On POTUS right now I am:
Clinton -361.81 Sanders -1149.71
Of course as Sanders catches up, states that are gone have their result in the past though...
So far this primary season, Republican turnout is up 40-50%. Democrat turnout is down 20-30%. There is a serious enthusiasm gap on the Dem side, even allowing for Obama not being on the ticket.
The black vote is the mainstay of Democratic support in the South. They will break for Clinton. Sanders has so far failed to break into that support. South Carolina will be an indicator.
The S.E.C. Primary on 3/1 will allocate about 1/3 of the delegates needed to capture the nomination. On the Republican side all primaries up to and including 3/15 allocate delegates according to vote share (with riders - for example in SC you had to win a county to get any delegates), after 3/15 primaries are winner take all.
I have just ordered 3,000 leaflets from Vote Leave which I intend to hand out around my solid Labour area over the coming weeks. Focused on the NHS/TTIP and EU spending.
Being young, I have never leafleted or done anything for a political party before other than pay membership subs but this is so important I am going to post as many leaflets as possible before now and June.
Time to take the country back and I urge everybody to help. We can win this.
I have just ordered 3,000 leaflets from Vote Leave which I intend to hand out around my solid Labour area over the coming weeks. Focused on the NHS/TTIP and EU spending.
Being young, I have never leafleted or done anything for a political party before other than pay membership subs but this is so important I am going to post as many leaflets as possible before now and June.
Time to take the country back and I urge everybody to help. We can win this.
I have just ordered 3,000 leaflets from Vote Leave which I intend to hand out around my solid Labour area over the coming weeks. Focused on the NHS/TTIP and EU spending.
Being young, I have never leafleted or done anything for a political party before other than pay membership subs but this is so important I am going to post as many leaflets as possible before now and June.
Time to take the country back and I urge everybody to help. We can win this.
I have just ordered 3,000 leaflets from Vote Leave which I intend to hand out around my solid Labour area over the coming weeks. Focused on the NHS/TTIP and EU spending.
Being young, I have never leafleted or done anything for a political party before other than pay membership subs but this is so important I am going to post as many leaflets as possible before now and June.
Time to take the country back and I urge everybody to help. We can win this.
Whereabouts are you? (roughly)
A Liverpool constituency. Not far from Anfield.
When I was recently going through the districts of the UK trying to work out how each one was likely to vote in the referendum, Liverpool was one of the places I couldn't decide on. I put it down as 50/50 in the end. What do you think?
I have just ordered 3,000 leaflets from Vote Leave which I intend to hand out around my solid Labour area over the coming weeks. Focused on the NHS/TTIP and EU spending.
Being young, I have never leafleted or done anything for a political party before other than pay membership subs but this is so important I am going to post as many leaflets as possible before now and June.
Time to take the country back and I urge everybody to help. We can win this.
Whereabouts are you? (roughly)
A Liverpool constituency. Not far from Anfield.
When I was recently going through the districts of the UK trying to work out how each one was likely to vote in the referendum, Liverpool was one of the places I couldn't decide on. I put it down as 50/50 in the end. What do you think?
Not sure really, Labour have strong sway still here.
But then again look at what happened in Scotland....
I'm slightly sceptical of that poll, because the Piel poll - the one that has the PVV on 30% - had approx 75% of the Dutch agreeing with the statement "The Euro has been good for the Netherlands", which ties with the TNS poll from November which had a similar proportion.
Of course, the Dutch might want to go the Monaco or Vatican route of being in the Euro, but not the EU.
Yes, Wilders is anti-EU but not anti-Euro, which the Dutch generally feel is just practical as it means they don't have to mess about with different currencies with all their immediate neighbours. Primarily, though, he's anti-immigration.
I'm just waiting for a British politician to suggest simultaneously joining the Euro and leaving the EU
I'm sure its crossed the mind of a Eurosceptic Scot Nat......
I have just ordered 3,000 leaflets from Vote Leave which I intend to hand out around my solid Labour area over the coming weeks. Focused on the NHS/TTIP and EU spending.
Being young, I have never leafleted or done anything for a political party before other than pay membership subs but this is so important I am going to post as many leaflets as possible before now and June.
Time to take the country back and I urge everybody to help. We can win this.
I appreciate you think TTIP and such are important, but if the report below is correct, your efforts will fuck up a lot of people's lives
I have just ordered 3,000 leaflets from Vote Leave which I intend to hand out around my solid Labour area over the coming weeks. Focused on the NHS/TTIP and EU spending.
Being young, I have never leafleted or done anything for a political party before other than pay membership subs but this is so important I am going to post as many leaflets as possible before now and June.
Time to take the country back and I urge everybody to help. We can win this.
I appreciate you think TTIP and such are important, but if the report below is correct, your efforts will fuck up a lot of people's lives
What will "f*** up lives" is staying within the European Union as it moves towards federalism despite no democratic mandate and the forces of nationalism arise in reaction to that. The dangers of forcing people into a political union through fear and lies are so so dangerous as we've seen countless times around the globe and in the Europe of the last century.
My birthright of an independent nation and sovereign parliament is not a dangerous idea but a simple and just one, and one which nations such as America, Australia, Canada and New Zealand all enjoy.
And indeed the more I hear weak and transparent attempts to scare me into thinking otherwise the sooner I cannot wait to pound those pavements and post those leaflets.
I have just ordered 3,000 leaflets from Vote Leave which I intend to hand out around my solid Labour area over the coming weeks. Focused on the NHS/TTIP and EU spending.
Being young, I have never leafleted or done anything for a political party before other than pay membership subs but this is so important I am going to post as many leaflets as possible before now and June.
Time to take the country back and I urge everybody to help. We can win this.
I appreciate you think TTIP and such are important, but if the report below is correct, your efforts will fuck up a lot of people's lives
Comments
The one senior figure on the Leave side who has come out of this affair with his reputation enhanced with both sides is Gove. Whether you agree with his final stance or not, it's clearly principled and respectful of other views. He'd thus be a unifying figure in a Leave scenario.
Of course, if the result is Remain this doesn't apply. In that scenario, it seems to me that Theresa May is the one whose case has been strengthened by the Great Divide, again because she looks principled and respectful of other views.
I sometimes wonder whether things are only left half-done out of some Monnet-style conspiratorial strategising: throw something together that doesn't quite work, so you can claim you need to centralise even more power later to fix it. But I reckon it's mostly the downside of trying to cobble an agreement together between more than two dozen states. Ultimately that kind of multilateral negotiation process leads to worse outcomes. There's a reason the US ultimately took the federal option.
I bet he regrets winning now...
If Labour voters decide based purely on your assumption then Remainers will have no one left.
Cameron used his position as PM to attack Boris today, so this is becoming personal.
What weapons can Boris use from his position as Mayor of London to counter attack?
Goodnight.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/pensions/article-3458536/Could-really-end-tax-free-lump-sum.html
Reason being there are other issue's to consider than Europe and Corbyn is such a dire alternative...
However, if Labour get someone even half decent and the Tories are mad enough to give the leadership to Osborne, that could easily change.
Sun page 1: new Eastenders set to include mosque https://twitter.com/TheSun/status/701897637381988352 … context:.1 in 8 Londoners is Muslim: just over a million people
Well it was only a matter of time before it happened,bbc couldn't keep lying to the public that the eastend hadn't changed.
I don't think Boris has done either himself or the Leave campaign any good with his manoeuvring.
* and possibly not all that far away from our own, I don't think it would have taken a huge twist of fate to deliver it
http://aboutasfarasdelgados.blogspot.co.uk/2014/11/is-eastenders-more-racist-than.html?m=1
RCP national GOP polling average: Trump 34.2, Cruz 20.6, Rubio 16.0
Delegates so far: Trump 67. Cruz 11, Rubio 10
Contests won so far: Trump 2, Cruz 1, Rubio 0
to be contrasted with best Betfair odds to back for RepNom:
Trump 1.93, Rubio 2.26, Cruz 55.0 !!
Well, the Trump odds might (at last) make sense. But not the other two.
Nor, unlike when it started, does there seem to be any yuppie characters.
They really should relocate the credits map to Havering or Bexley.
Laying Rubio/Backing Cruz is a cheap way to build up a nice Green without affecting your Trump (Or Kasich) position though.
Trump 32%
Rubio 23%
Cruz 18%
Carson 8%
Kasich 8%
Dems
Clinton 72
Sanders 20
https://twitter.com/americaelect
GOP
Trump 36
Cruz 18
Rubio 18
Carson 10
Kasich 7
Dems
Clinton 51
Sanders 36
General Election
Clinton 43
Trump 45
Clinton 43
Cruz 48
Clinton 42
Rubio 49
Sanders 44
Trump 44
Sanders 46
Cruz 42
Sanders 45
Rubio 44
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=6581a9ab-f961-4f38-8e5f-c23fc53d1736
GOP
Trump 28
Cruz 19
Rubio 16
Carson 10
Kasich 7
Dems
Clinton 47
Sanders 37
General Election
Clinton 47
Trump 41
Clinton 46
Cruz 46
Clinton 45
Rubio 48
Sanders 48
Trump 40
Sanders 47
Cruz 43
Sanders 43
Rubio 46
http://www.elon.edu/images/e-web/elonpoll/022216_ElonPoll_ExecSummary.pdf
http://edition.cnn.com/2016/02/22/politics/john-kasich-women-kitchen/index.html
That's Boris Johnson.
To Winston Churchill.
Ooookayyyy, I think I'll just leave you to it...
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/0eab8ae4-d943-11e5-a72f-1e7744c66818.html#ixzz40wcxIrYD
Even the Indie has 56% #Brexit to just 35% Remain lol http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-michael-gove-david-cameron-brexit-national-security-a6886711.html …
Rubio is too short.
Cruz is too long.
Sell Rubio.
I am super sceptical about Cruz's path to the nomination: simply, he's hated by the establishment worse than Trump, the number of evangelical states is pretty small, and he's sharing the religious right vote with Rubio. I can't see him picking up all the states Santorum or Huckabee did, and therefore he has to be pretty long odds. But a less than 2% chance of winning? Ridiculous. I can easily envisage a scenario where he is the non-Trump candidate after Rubio crashes and burns on Super Tuesday, and then something happens to Trump...
Rubio is still shit. He'll win a maximum of one state on Super Tuesday, and if he doesn't win Florida, it's all over for him. (He's Newt, without the personality.)
The Dutch also want an EU referendum, and are evenly balanced on whether to leave: 44%-43%. #Nexit
http://www.telegraaf.nl/binnenland/25242259/__Ook_hier_hoop_op_EU-referendum__.html …
Of course, the Dutch might want to go the Monaco or Vatican route of being in the Euro, but not the EU.
Our latest research finds at least 120 Tory MPs will vote LEAVE with 79 still to make up mind/declare @itvnews pic.twitter.com/rkSzBdUrYF
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vp6viBi5DA4avMgR2Y8lKrrAUqJp-0zL2LZB6iVD3uU/edit#gid=450656551
Could be following the change with Wilders in the polls ?
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vp6viBi5DA4avMgR2Y8lKrrAUqJp-0zL2LZB6iVD3uU/edit#gid=450656551
138 OUT, 136 IN, 56 ND
That being said, the Dutch - while being very Euro friendly - were very Schengen sceptic, and even more Islamo-concerned (to coin a phrase).
Thanks ;-)
Re the Netherlands; it's funny. Opinions are never simple. I would have assumed a very high correlation between love of Schengen and love of the Euro. Yet the Dutch are sceptical on the former, and positively enthusiastic on the latter.
I think we forget that small countries often really struggle to borrow in their own currency, and end up borrowing in Euros, Dollars and the like. So, the Baltic states, for example, have never had meaningful local currency government debt markets. (Before the Euro, local savers would rather have German bonds, and the government didn't want to borrow at 8% in Lehti when they could borrow at 2% in Euros.)
If the government is going to end up owing Euros anyway, perhaps it's easier to go the whole hog and just adopt it as the national currency.
What would convince you to vote leave ?
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/112R0zDRQLC2cxE1op0TY-IBq_PTtcxpwgfbu87DI45w/edit?usp=sharing
John Kasich
Joe Biden
ALL
120 / 140
for POTUS !!
A for effort.
Is it looking like 2:1 in delegates for Clinton?
I don';t think its as overwhelming as the spreadsheet indicates, but it's bloody hard for him for sure.
The mass southern black vote is about to deliver for HRC.
Unlike the GOP winner-take-all or nearly all races, which are designed to find the nominee sooner rather than later, the Dem race is much slower, and PR all the way.
Bernie has a chance, probably more than we think.
Clinton -361.81
Sanders -1149.71
Of course as Sanders catches up, states that are gone have their result in the past though...
The black vote is the mainstay of Democratic support in the South. They will break for Clinton. Sanders has so far failed to break into that support. South Carolina will be an indicator.
The S.E.C. Primary on 3/1 will allocate about 1/3 of the delegates needed to capture the nomination. On the Republican side all primaries up to and including 3/15 allocate delegates according to vote share (with riders - for example in SC you had to win a county to get any delegates), after 3/15 primaries are winner take all.
Being young, I have never leafleted or done anything for a political party before other than pay membership subs but this is so important I am going to post as many leaflets as possible before now and June.
Time to take the country back and I urge everybody to help. We can win this.
You seen this? I assume this is relevant to you. Comments?
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/pound-could-fall-1-20-192700971.html
But then again look at what happened in Scotland....
It's almost perfect PR though, so (unlike South Carolina) will deliver scant arithmetic change to the overall race.
A Trump loss, however, would dent the feeling of inevitability going into Super Tuesday...
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/pound-could-fall-1-20-192700971.html
He started his groundgame there YEARS ago !
My birthright of an independent nation and sovereign parliament is not a dangerous idea but a simple and just one, and one which nations such as America, Australia, Canada and New Zealand all enjoy.
And indeed the more I hear weak and transparent attempts to scare me into thinking otherwise the sooner I cannot wait to pound those pavements and post those leaflets.