I can't find any states where Rubio is ahead of Trump in the polls. Virginia seems to be the closest.
There was a Utah poll today which puts Rubio ahead, although my algorithm gives it narrowly to Cruz, based on median of three polls. It's a more-or-less irrelevant state, however, polling by PR in the final leg of the contest.
There is evidence that Rubio is rising elsewhere. By how much and how fast is hard to judge.
I have just ordered 3,000 leaflets from Vote Leave which I intend to hand out around my solid Labour area over the coming weeks. Focused on the NHS/TTIP and EU spending.
Being young, I have never leafleted or done anything for a political party before other than pay membership subs but this is so important I am going to post as many leaflets as possible before now and June.
Time to take the country back and I urge everybody to help. We can win this.
I appreciate you think TTIP and such are important, but if the report below is correct, your efforts will fuck up a lot of people's lives
What will "f*** up lives" is staying within the European Union as it moves towards federalism despite no democratic mandate and the forces of nationalism arise in reaction to that. The dangers of forcing people into a political union through fear and lies are so so dangerous as we've seen countless times around the globe and in the Europe of the last century.
My birthright of an independent nation and sovereign parliament is not a dangerous idea but a simple and just one, and one which nations such as America, Australia, Canada and New Zealand all enjoy.
And indeed the more I hear weak and transparent attempts to scare me into thinking otherwise the sooner I cannot wait to pound those pavements and post those leaflets.
I'm sure that what you wrote made sense to you but what you are speaking of are abstract concepts that aren't really relevant to people's lives. However, I'll make you a deal. You can talk to people all you like about federalism, mandates, TTIPs, sovereignity, whatever people on here usually bang on about. Provided that you also tell them that it's messing up the currency and threatening interest rate rises, with the resultant risk to credit card and mortgage payments. Seriously. Go tell them that. See what they say.
I have just ordered 3,000 leaflets from Vote Leave which I intend to hand out around my solid Labour area over the coming weeks. Focused on the NHS/TTIP and EU spending.
Being young, I have never leafleted or done anything for a political party before other than pay membership subs but this is so important I am going to post as many leaflets as possible before now and June.
Time to take the country back and I urge everybody to help. We can win this.
I appreciate you think TTIP and such are important, but if the report below is correct, your efforts will fuck up a lot of people's lives
I have just ordered 3,000 leaflets from Vote Leave which I intend to hand out around my solid Labour area over the coming weeks. Focused on the NHS/TTIP and EU spending.
Being young, I have never leafleted or done anything for a political party before other than pay membership subs but this is so important I am going to post as many leaflets as possible before now and June.
Time to take the country back and I urge everybody to help. We can win this.
I appreciate you think TTIP and such are important, but if the report below is correct, your efforts will fuck up a lot of people's lives
What will "f*** up lives" is staying within the European Union as it moves towards federalism despite no democratic mandate and the forces of nationalism arise in reaction to that. The dangers of forcing people into a political union through fear and lies are so so dangerous as we've seen countless times around the globe and in the Europe of the last century.
My birthright of an independent nation and sovereign parliament is not a dangerous idea but a simple and just one, and one which nations such as America, Australia, Canada and New Zealand all enjoy.
And indeed the more I hear weak and transparent attempts to scare me into thinking otherwise the sooner I cannot wait to pound those pavements and post those leaflets.
I'm sure that what you wrote made sense to you but what you are speaking of are abstract concepts that aren't really relevant to people's lives. However, I'll make you a deal. You can talk to people all you like about federalism, mandates, TTIPs, sovereignity, whatever people on here usually bang on about. Provided that you also tell them that it's messing up the currency and threatening interest rate rises, with the resultant risk to credit card and mortgage payments. Seriously. Go tell them that. See what they say.
Control over our borders. Control over our seas. Control over our energy policy. Control over our trade deals. Control over our justice system.
I could go on, do you think these matter to people? I do.
My belief is the Leave campaign ought to hold back on immigration until the final weeks and then go nuclear with the simple message that if you want to control immigration (in the midst of the chaos that will engulf the continent with the refugees this summer) then the only way is to leave the European Union. Billboards and the lot.
You trade on ifs, could's and might. We can go on what actually *is* happening.
I have just ordered 3,000 leaflets from Vote Leave which I intend to hand out around my solid Labour area over the coming weeks. Focused on the NHS/TTIP and EU spending.
Being young, I have never leafleted or done anything for a political party before other than pay membership subs but this is so important I am going to post as many leaflets as possible before now and June.
Time to take the country back and I urge everybody to help. We can win this.
I appreciate you think TTIP and such are important, but if the report below is correct, your efforts will fuck up a lot of people's lives
Control over our borders. Control over our seas. Control over our energy policy. Control over our trade deals. Control over our justice system.
I could go on, do you think these matter to people? I do.
My belief is the Leave campaign ought to hold back on immigration until the final weeks and then go nuclear with the simple message that if you want to control immigration (in the midst of the chaos that will engulf the continent with the refugees this summer) then the only way is to leave the European Union. Billboards and the lot.
You trade on ifs, could's and might. We can go on what actually *is* happening.
I trade on how much I have to pay on my mortgage. Three people who post on this board are either buying (or have recently bought) property or have mortgage payments in other currencies. Currency movements and the concomitant threat of interest rate rises cost money which they will have to pay. Your concerns, no matter how sincerely held or important to you, have costs which other people will have to pay in cold hard cash.
You aren't going to believe a blind word I say or will elide/ignore my points. But the least you can do is be honest to the people you leaflet and tell them that your dreams of a better future will cost them money.
I have just ordered 3,000 leaflets from Vote Leave which I intend to hand out around my solid Labour area over the coming weeks. Focused on the NHS/TTIP and EU spending.
Being young, I have never leafleted or done anything for a political party before other than pay membership subs but this is so important I am going to post as many leaflets as possible before now and June.
Time to take the country back and I urge everybody to help. We can win this.
I appreciate you think TTIP and such are important, but if the report below is correct, your efforts will fuck up a lot of people's lives
Georgia's allocation is one of the more complex to model. One of only 2 states that have three effective tiers.
14 CDs, each of 3 delegates, 42 in total. Unless the winner in a CD wins >50%, they will split 2:1 to first/second place. I model this as a square law.
31 Statewide delegates, allocated "proportionally". If one candidate wins >50% or only one exceeds the 20% threshold, it's WTA, else "proportional" among those who win >20%.
3 WTA Statewide delegates to the state winner, whatever their vote share.
Control over our borders. Control over our seas. Control over our energy policy. Control over our trade deals. Control over our justice system.
I could go on, do you think these matter to people? I do.
My belief is the Leave campaign ought to hold back on immigration until the final weeks and then go nuclear with the simple message that if you want to control immigration (in the midst of the chaos that will engulf the continent with the refugees this summer) then the only way is to leave the European Union. Billboards and the lot.
You trade on ifs, could's and might. We can go on what actually *is* happening.
I trade on how much I have to pay on my mortgage. Three people who post on this board are either buying (or have recently bought) property or have mortgage payments in other currencies. Currency movements and the concomitant threat of interest rate rises cost money which they will have to pay. Your concerns, no matter how sincerely held or important to you, have costs which other people will have to pay in cold hard cash.
You aren't going to believe a blind word I say or will elide/ignore my points. But the least you can do is be honest to the people you leaflet and tell them that your dreams of a better future will cost them money.
And you're not going to do that.
[edit: unfuck tags]
You do realise a rise in interest rates has been on the cards for years and is just a matter of time?
You do realise America has already raised their base rate? That we are expecting to follow before long?
I have just ordered 3,000 leaflets from Vote Leave which I intend to hand out around my solid Labour area over the coming weeks. Focused on the NHS/TTIP and EU spending.
Being young, I have never leafleted or done anything for a political party before other than pay membership subs but this is so important I am going to post as many leaflets as possible before now and June.
Time to take the country back and I urge everybody to help. We can win this.
Whereabouts are you? (roughly)
A Liverpool constituency. Not far from Anfield.
Bootle or Walton?
Anyhow, Liverpool's on its own planet, when it come to these issues. The capital of itself.
Control over our borders. Control over our seas. Control over our energy policy. Control over our trade deals. Control over our justice system.
I could go on, do you think these matter to people? I do.
My belief is the Leave campaign ought to hold back on immigration until the final weeks and then go nuclear with the simple message that if you want to control immigration (in the midst of the chaos that will engulf the continent with the refugees this summer) then the only way is to leave the European Union. Billboards and the lot.
You trade on ifs, could's and might. We can go on what actually *is* happening.
I trade on how much I have to pay on my mortgage. Three people who post on this board are either buying (or have recently bought) property or have mortgage payments in other currencies. Currency movements and the concomitant threat of interest rate rises cost money which they will have to pay. Your concerns, no matter how sincerely held or important to you, have costs which other people will have to pay in cold hard cash.
You aren't going to believe a blind word I say or will elide/ignore my points. But the least you can do is be honest to the people you leaflet and tell them that your dreams of a better future will cost them money.
And you're not going to do that.
[edit: unfuck tags]
You do realise a rise in interest rates has been on the cards for years and is just a matter of time?
You do realise America has already raised their base rate? That we are expecting to follow before long?
Up until ~Autumn last year, the consensus was that rates would rise in 2016 and fixed-rate mortgages rose accordingly. Then the BOE reversed/cast doubt on its forward guidance policy and that consensus reversed, concluding that rates would stay low thru 2016 (and longer, if memory serves). Now Brexit fears have surfaced, GBP is dropping and suddenly interest rate rises are back on the menu again.
Remind me again when was the last time the pound went down to $1.20?
When I was in the USSR 31 years ago the pound was $1.10.
Just looked it up.[1] Shit, it's a thirty-year low. Damn, that's worrying. Interest rates were 14% in 1985. Oh, bugger...
The fundamentals are completely different to 31 years ago. We are talking about rate rises to still well below the previously standard 5%
So tell people that. When you tell them about sovereignity and whatnot, tell them that because of your Brexit, interest rates will rise but they mustn't worry because it'll be under 5%. Probably. That'll reassure them.
Remind me again when was the last time the pound went down to $1.20?
When I was in the USSR 31 years ago the pound was $1.10.
Just looked it up.[1] Shit, it's a thirty-year low. Damn, that's worrying. Interest rates were 14% in 1985. Oh, bugger...
The fundamentals are completely different to 31 years ago. We are talking about rate rises to still well below the previously standard 5%
So tell people that. When you tell them about sovereignity and whatnot, tell them that because of your Brexit, interest rates will rise but they mustn't worry because it'll be under 5%. Probably. That'll reassure them.
whereas staying in the EU will guarantee low interest rates for ever? Sounds unlikely
Remind me again when was the last time the pound went down to $1.20?
When I was in the USSR 31 years ago the pound was $1.10.
Just looked it up.[1] Shit, it's a thirty-year low. Damn, that's worrying. Interest rates were 14% in 1985. Oh, bugger...
The fundamentals are completely different to 31 years ago. We are talking about rate rises to still well below the previously standard 5%
So tell people that. When you tell them about sovereignity and whatnot, tell them that because of your Brexit, interest rates will rise but they mustn't worry because it'll be under 5%. Probably. That'll reassure them.
whereas staying in the EU will guarantee low interest rates for ever? Sounds unlikely
Again, you're ignoring what I said. Be honest with people. Tell them your dreams have a cost, so they can make an informed decision. Otherwise you're just messing with people's lives.
Georgia's allocation is one of the more complex to model. One of only 2 states that have three effective tiers.
14 CDs, each of 3 delegates, 42 in total. Unless the winner in a CD wins >50%, they will split 2:1 to first/second place. I model this as a square law.
31 Statewide delegates, allocated "proportionally". If one candidate wins >50% or only one exceeds the 20% threshold, it's WTA, else "proportional" among those who win >20%.
3 WTA Statewide delegates to the state winner, whatever their vote share.
We'll see how close I get!
Their primary is today I've just noticed. Assumed Georgia was a Super Tuesday state for some reason.
Georgia's allocation is one of the more complex to model. One of only 2 states that have three effective tiers.
14 CDs, each of 3 delegates, 42 in total. Unless the winner in a CD wins >50%, they will split 2:1 to first/second place. I model this as a square law.
31 Statewide delegates, allocated "proportionally". If one candidate wins >50% or only one exceeds the 20% threshold, it's WTA, else "proportional" among those who win >20%.
3 WTA Statewide delegates to the state winner, whatever their vote share.
We'll see how close I get!
Their primary is today I've just noticed. Assumed Georgia was a Super Tuesday state for some reason.
Dunno what you're looking at Andy. It is a Super Tuesday state!
Remind me again when was the last time the pound went down to $1.20?
When I was in the USSR 31 years ago the pound was $1.10.
Just looked it up.[1] Shit, it's a thirty-year low. Damn, that's worrying. Interest rates were 14% in 1985. Oh, bugger...
The fundamentals are completely different to 31 years ago. We are talking about rate rises to still well below the previously standard 5%
So tell people that. When you tell them about sovereignity and whatnot, tell them that because of your Brexit, interest rates will rise but they mustn't worry because it'll be under 5%. Probably. That'll reassure them.
It sure should. Anyone who can't cope with an inevitable, small and long overdue rise in interest rates is a moron. Plus it will be a boon to both savers and exporters.
I have just ordered 3,000 leaflets from Vote Leave which I intend to hand out around my solid Labour area over the coming weeks. Focused on the NHS/TTIP and EU spending.
Being young, I have never leafleted or done anything for a political party before other than pay membership subs but this is so important I am going to post as many leaflets as possible before now and June.
Time to take the country back and I urge everybody to help. We can win this.
I appreciate you think TTIP and such are important, but if the report below is correct, your efforts will fuck up a lot of people's lives
Georgia's allocation is one of the more complex to model. One of only 2 states that have three effective tiers.
14 CDs, each of 3 delegates, 42 in total. Unless the winner in a CD wins >50%, they will split 2:1 to first/second place. I model this as a square law.
31 Statewide delegates, allocated "proportionally". If one candidate wins >50% or only one exceeds the 20% threshold, it's WTA, else "proportional" among those who win >20%.
3 WTA Statewide delegates to the state winner, whatever their vote share.
We'll see how close I get!
Their primary is today I've just noticed. Assumed Georgia was a Super Tuesday state for some reason.
Dunno what you're looking at Andy. It is a Super Tuesday state!
Rod - while you're here - your excellent spreadsheet over-allocates delegates in some instances if you insert the same vote share for candidates (e.g. for WTA states). While that may be the expected performance, I thought I'd note it.
Georgia's allocation is one of the more complex to model. One of only 2 states that have three effective tiers.
14 CDs, each of 3 delegates, 42 in total. Unless the winner in a CD wins >50%, they will split 2:1 to first/second place. I model this as a square law.
31 Statewide delegates, allocated "proportionally". If one candidate wins >50% or only one exceeds the 20% threshold, it's WTA, else "proportional" among those who win >20%.
3 WTA Statewide delegates to the state winner, whatever their vote share.
We'll see how close I get!
Their primary is today I've just noticed. Assumed Georgia was a Super Tuesday state for some reason.
Dunno what you're looking at Andy. It is a Super Tuesday state!
Rod - while you're here - your excellent spreadsheet over-allocates delegates in some instances if you insert the same vote share for candidates (e.g. for WTA states). While that may be the expected performance, I thought I'd note it.
If you force a tie in a WTA state, what would you expect?
Just don't do it. Or would you wish me to break them randomly?
Comments
There is evidence that Rubio is rising elsewhere. By how much and how fast is hard to judge.
https://twitter.com/NumbersMuncher/status/701911172765847553
Remind me again when was the last time interest rates went up?
Control over our seas.
Control over our energy policy.
Control over our trade deals.
Control over our justice system.
I could go on, do you think these matter to people? I do.
My belief is the Leave campaign ought to hold back on immigration until the final weeks and then go nuclear with the simple message that if you want to control immigration (in the midst of the chaos that will engulf the continent with the refugees this summer) then the only way is to leave the European Union. Billboards and the lot.
You trade on ifs, could's and might. We can go on what actually *is* happening.
Would be next to no delegates for Cruz in GA, with its 20% threshold...
You aren't going to believe a blind word I say or will elide/ignore my points. But the least you can do is be honest to the people you leaflet and tell them that your dreams of a better future will cost them money.
And you're not going to do that.
[edit: unfuck tags]
Remind me again when was the last time interest rates went up?
14 CDs, each of 3 delegates, 42 in total. Unless the winner in a CD wins >50%, they will split 2:1 to first/second place. I model this as a square law.
31 Statewide delegates, allocated "proportionally". If one candidate wins >50% or only one exceeds the 20% threshold, it's WTA, else "proportional" among those who win >20%.
3 WTA Statewide delegates to the state winner, whatever their vote share.
We'll see how close I get!
You do realise America has already raised their base rate? That we are expecting to follow before long?
[1] http://www.miketodd.net/encyc/dollhist-graph2.htm
[2] http://www.mortgagerates.org.uk/images/boe-rates.png
Anyhow, Liverpool's on its own planet, when it come to these issues. The capital of itself.
Sceptic is in our DNA, however...
But you're ignoring what I said.
It is a Super Tuesday state!
Just don't do it. Or would you wish me to break them randomly?