There would be a reduction in the numbers who could exercise their rights under free movement if Leave were to win.
Europeans would then return to being subject to the same visa requirements as non-EU citizens, and the application of 'no recourse to public funds' restrictions would become more prevalent for EU workers here on visas.
Presumably Britons would need a visa to travel to the Continent too then?
Permission to live in Spain? Use of Spanish health services? And that’s just Spain.
Why should anyone be swayed in the vote by the posturing of politicians?
And---asking naively & simply---If posturing shouldn't matter, then where can one get well-expressed, honest, informative explanations of the factors that should influence his/her vote?
Here. There may be very different opinions but I doubt you will get a much more informative debate. Just look at the exchanges between Charles, Topping, Richard N and others on the economic aspects.
I am not promising anyone can give you a definitive answer on which way you should vote but I doubt there are many other places where all the factors are laid bare and argued so comprehensively.
@lucycthomas: .@Anna_Soubry nails Nigel Farage on what Out would look like. He admits NO single market. Means prices up,tariffs & barriers #c4news #euref
Pfft by an average of what, 1-1.5% I am sure people are worried.
Thats only Farages version of Out. There are 56 other varieties.
And the USA has said it does not want to make FTAs with individual countries and would not conclude one with a brexited UK. (US trade representative, Michael Froman)
Of course the US would sign an agreement with the UK, in the event of Brexit. We aren't Cuba.
The whole point of leaving the EU is that we can be just like Cuba if we wish.
@lucycthomas: .@Anna_Soubry nails Nigel Farage on what Out would look like. He admits NO single market. Means prices up,tariffs & barriers #c4news #euref
Pfft by an average of what, 1-1.5% I am sure people are worried.
Thats only Farages version of Out. There are 56 other varieties.
And the USA has said it does not want to make FTAs with individual countries and would not conclude one with a brexited UK. (US trade representative, Michael Froman)
Of course the US would sign an agreement with the UK, in the event of Brexit. We aren't Cuba.
The whole point of leaving the EU is that we can be just like Cuba if we wish.
So goes the logic of the leave campaign.
Ask George Galloway.
That's the point for some Leavers - we could be like Cuba, Hong Kong, Switzerland whatever. UK voters get to decide that over time.
So if it were a commons vote REMAIN would win easily.
More to the point, in a Commons vote after a Leave, the least-disruptive options (i.e. an EEA-style deal) would presumably win easily.
This is an aspect which the commentariat doesn't seem to have given any thought to, but it's potentially quite explosive if Leave wins on migration fears.
It's staring the commentariat in the face. For most voters a Remain or Leave vote is going to make no difference. Immigration policy will be almost entirely unaffected whichever side wins.
Nope.
If we Leave a party will be able to put in its manifesto that ALL visitors will be treated equally, regardless of nationality.
It is a fundamental change
Should we vote Leave, by the time of the next GE there would be a new agreement in place, negotiated by the Conservative government, that enshrines free movement of goods, services, people and capital. The Tory Leavers and Remainers who have a chance of leading the party do not disagree on this. And they will be doing the deal.
What you are stating is an opinion, not a fact. The Leavers want to manage immigration, it will be a major factor in any negotiations, if we vote Leave the electorate will be heard.
There would be a reduction in the numbers who could exercise their rights under free movement if Leave were to win.
Europeans would then return to being subject to the same visa requirements as non-EU citizens, and the application of 'no recourse to public funds' restrictions would become more prevalent for EU workers here on visas.
Presumably Britons would need a visa to travel to the Continent too then?
Permission to live in Spain? Use of Spanish health services? And that’s just Spain.
Yes, some expats might start to look at the small print!
So if it were a commons vote REMAIN would win easily.
More to the point, in a Commons vote after a Leave, the least-disruptive options (i.e. an EEA-style deal) would presumably win easily.
This is an aspect which the commentariat doesn't seem to have given any thought to, but it's potentially quite explosive if Leave wins on migration fears.
It's staring the commentariat in the face. For most voters a Remain or Leave vote is going to make no difference. Immigration policy will be almost entirely unaffected whichever side wins.
Nope.
If we Leave a party will be able to put in its manifesto that ALL visitors will be treated equally, regardless of nationality.
It is a fundamental change
Should we vote Leave, by the time of the next GE there would be a new agreement in place, negotiated by the Conservative government, that enshrines free movement of goods, services, people and capital. The Tory Leavers and Remainers who have a chance of leading the party do not disagree on this. And they will be doing the deal.
Which is why all these accusations from the Remainders that we don't know what Leave would look like are rubbish. We know who will be negotiating the deal generally even if we don't know the name of the PM at that point. So we know that the Single Market freedoms either I'm actuality or in effect will be in place.
Absolutely right. For most people a Remain or Leave result will make very little difference. It's a lot of shouting over relatively little.
Only if you consider immigration to be the only important issue. Otherwise there are many areas of people's lives where there will be a steady change. As I have said before, people really don't realise how much the EU impacts on their daily lives.
There are never going to be any visa restrictions between the UK and citizens of Western Europe of any sort. It would be political and economic suicide. The Leave campaign needs to admit that it's "regaining control of our borders" slogan is sham.
There would be a reduction in the numbers who could exercise their rights under free movement if Leave were to win.
Europeans would then return to being subject to the same visa requirements as non-EU citizens, and the application of 'no recourse to public funds' restrictions would become more prevalent for EU workers here on visas.
Presumably Britons would need a visa to travel to the Continent too then?
Permission to live in Spain? Use of Spanish health services? And that’s just Spain.
Free movement of people will be on British terms or else Ireland gets it. I'm expecting that you would need passports but noting else, due to the Northern Irish border and the Dublin ferries.
There would be a reduction in the numbers who could exercise their rights under free movement if Leave were to win.
Europeans would then return to being subject to the same visa requirements as non-EU citizens, and the application of 'no recourse to public funds' restrictions would become more prevalent for EU workers here on visas.
Presumably Britons would need a visa to travel to the Continent too then?
So if it were a commons vote REMAIN would win easily.
More to the point, in a Commons vote after a Leave, the least-disruptive options (i.e. an EEA-style deal) would presumably win easily.
This is an aspect which the commentariat doesn't seem to have given any thought to, but it's potentially quite explosive if Leave wins on migration fears.
It's staring the commentariat in the face. For most voters a Remain or Leave vote is going to make no difference. Immigration policy will be almost entirely unaffected whichever side wins.
Nope.
If we Leave a party will be able to put in its manifesto that ALL visitors will be treated equally, regardless of nationality.
It is a fundamental change
Yeah, but it's also bullshit.
The fact is that immigration policies, all immigration policies, are racist.
So, there will continue to be working holiday arrangements with Australians and New Zealanders, for example. And there would be University 'swaps' with institutions in North America and Europe. Etc. etc. etc.
@afneil: Had private briefing by Republican insiders: if Trump beats Cruz in Texas (March 1st) and Rubio in Florida (15th) then Trump wins nomination
Also know as a statement of the bleeding obvious.
If Trump beats both Cruz and Rubio in their home states how is anyone going to stop him ?
It's actually obvious for another reason - it assumes Trump has a good Super Tuesday, good enough to take Florida, which implies Rubio hasn't united the anti-Trump vote.
There would be a reduction in the numbers who could exercise their rights under free movement if Leave were to win.
Europeans would then return to being subject to the same visa requirements as non-EU citizens, and the application of 'no recourse to public funds' restrictions would become more prevalent for EU workers here on visas.
Presumably Britons would need a visa to travel to the Continent too then?
I'm sure common movement rights and common employment rights can be negotiated. They can work here, we can work there. Theyre not entitled to any public support here, and we arent entitled to any there.
Does not seem unreasonable, or even difficult to make work. We can also strip non residents (all non residents, not just from the EU) of the tax free allowance. When I worked in Australia, only residents got the tax free allowance.
There can be certain incentives. Tax free allowance would be available for certain skills. You essentially use the tax system as a means to manage migration.
Earning £14k, paying tax on £4k (£800) , getting £1,700 in child benefit and £8,500 in tax credits and child tax credits (just did the numbers on a male earner, with a wife and two children), thats around £23,100 *after income tax*.
Take the sweeties away and that £23,100 turns into £11,200.
Why should anyone be swayed in the vote by the posturing of politicians?
And---asking naively & simply---If posturing shouldn't matter, then where can one get well-expressed, honest, informative explanations of the factors that should influence his/her vote?
Here. There may be very different opinions but I doubt you will get a much more informative debate. Just look at the exchanges between Charles, Topping, Richard N and others on the economic aspects.
I am not promising anyone can give you a definitive answer on which way you should vote but I doubt there are many other places where all the factors are laid bare and argued so comprehensively.
@afneil: Had private briefing by Republican insiders: if Trump beats Cruz in Texas (March 1st) and Rubio in Florida (15th) then Trump wins nomination
Also know as a statement of the bleeding obvious.
If Trump beats both Cruz and Rubio in their home states how is anyone going to stop him ?
It's actually obvious for another reason - it assumes Trump has a good Super Tuesday, good enough to take Florida, which implies Rubio hasn't united the anti-Trump vote.
But what is the anti-Trump vote, presumably they are those who declare that will never vote for him, but last time I checked they are around 30% of republicans and most of them already vote Rubio anyway.
Why should anyone be swayed in the vote by the posturing of politicians?
And---asking naively & simply---If posturing shouldn't matter, then where can one get well-expressed, honest, informative explanations of the factors that should influence his/her vote?
Here. There may be very different opinions but I doubt you will get a much more informative debate. Just look at the exchanges between Charles, Topping, Richard N and others on the economic aspects.
I am not promising anyone can give you a definitive answer on which way you should vote but I doubt there are many other places where all the factors are laid bare and argued so comprehensively.
Yes, of course that's why I come here, for the element of informed spontaneity. But I also remember (for instance) decades ago reading humongously informative articles, say, in the New Yorker (as was I'm afraid) about particular topics. Such have the advantage of careful construction and editing, and are not scroll-wise linear.
So if it were a commons vote REMAIN would win easily.
More to the point, in a Commons vote after a Leave, the least-disruptive options (i.e. an EEA-style deal) would presumably win easily.
This is an aspect which the commentariat doesn't seem to have given any thought to, but it's potentially quite explosive if Leave wins on migration fears.
It's staring the commentariat in the face. For most voters a Remain or Leave vote is going to make no difference. Immigration policy will be almost entirely unaffected whichever side wins.
Nope.
If we Leave a party will be able to put in its manifesto that ALL visitors will be treated equally, regardless of nationality.
It is a fundamental change
Yeah, but it's also bullshit.
The fact is that immigration policies, all immigration policies, are racist.
So, there will continue to be working holiday arrangements with Australians and New Zealanders, for example. And there would be University 'swaps' with institutions in North America and Europe. Etc. etc. etc.
We could have a system damn less arbitrary than a man from Romania having a prima facie right to indefinite residency in the UK with no more qualification than his mate over the border in Moldova who gets nothing.
Mmm....interesting. Does it really matter where they are in the UK whatever the EU vote result is or is this " repositioning" for some other reasons?
"Life and pensions group Scottish Widows has insisted it remains committed to Edinburgh after transferring billions of pounds of life insurance business south of the Border.
The insurer, founded two centuries ago, said the switch of its long-term insurance to a company registered in London would have “no impact” on its 3,000-strong workforce in the Scottish capital, and dismissed suggestions that the move was linked to the independence referendum of 2014 or the looming vote on the UK’s membership of the European Union"
Charles mentioned that under Cameron's deal, we would no longer be able to sue before the ECJ against ECB power grabs (eg over clearing). If we are all subject to the same rules, wouldn't it make such power grabs more difficult as it would amount to discrimination?
Sorry to repeat myself, just trying to get my head around the regulatory side.
It won't be discrimination because the same rule book applies to everyone.
Previously on clearing - sorry to come back to this - it was discrimination because there were different rules for Euro and non-Euro countries, and the Eurozone came up with a rule saying "all Euro-denominated clearing must be in a Eurozone country". So we sued and won.
Now they can come up with a single rule, applicable to everyone, saying that "All Euro-denominated clearing must be in a Eurozone country". We protest about it, there is a period of time during which the Commission tries to reach a consensus, then there is a vote and the rule is implemented
What's the rule on clearing US Dollars?
Don't know. I use BBH or Wells personally
Of course, it was because BNP's US dollar payments got cleared through NY that their completely legal in France where it happened transactions with Iran ended up costing them $9bn.
(Unlike @Cyclefree, I have a lot of sympathy with BNP's management. I hate countries - and organisations like the EU - that seek extra-territorial jurisdiction.)
Their US dollar payments went through the US where what they did was not legal. They knew that. They were warned. They ignored legal advice. They took the risk. They got caught.
And the case was not just about Iran. There was a terrorist financing aspect to it involving East Africa. BNP were warned about that as well.
If you want to play at being an international bank you have to accept that you need to comply with more than the laws of your home country.
Since 6 Aug 2014, Wikipedia's list of Shakespearean characters has featured the entry
Bromodideuterio: is the apothecary from whom the court doctor Cornelius in Cymbeline obtains the false poison requested by the Queen to murder Cymbeline and Imogen and secure the throne. Cf.: the apothecary in Romeo and Juliet.
What a beautifully subtle piece of vandalism. One for the chemists of you.
Cameron with his back to the wall is a force of nature. He skinned the Brexit team today.
Cameron is the Djokovic of UK politics. He is by far the best. But, if any other starts closing in, he has gears to use if necessary. Against Ed he had to shift into 3rd during the 3rd week of the campaign. I don't think he even went into fourth, fifth, or even sixth.
There is no way Brexit has a chance against Cameron. Much the same as Murray, Federer, Nadal et al.... Cameron towers over......
I for one will start hoping he changes his mind about his departure....
So, for betters, bet against DC, and you lose money comrades.
So if it were a commons vote REMAIN would win easily.
More to the point, in a Commons vote after a Leave, the least-disruptive options (i.e. an EEA-style deal) would presumably win easily.
This is an aspect which the commentariat doesn't seem to have given any thought to, but it's potentially quite explosive if Leave wins on migration fears.
It's staring the commentariat in the face. For most voters a Remain or Leave vote is going to make no difference. Immigration policy will be almost entirely unaffected whichever side wins.
Nope.
If we Leave a party will be able to put in its manifesto that ALL visitors will be treated equally, regardless of nationality.
It is a fundamental change
Yeah, but it's also bullshit.
The fact is that immigration policies, all immigration policies, are racist.
So, there will continue to be working holiday arrangements with Australians and New Zealanders, for example. And there would be University 'swaps' with institutions in North America and Europe. Etc. etc. etc.
We could have a system damn less arbitrary than a man from Romania having a prima facie right to indefinite residency in the UK with no more qualification than his mate over the border in Moldova who gets nothing.
Sure. You can say less discriminatory, or less racist, if you like.
But the idea that we will treat people from every country in the world equally is utter bullshit.
@afneil: Had private briefing by Republican insiders: if Trump beats Cruz in Texas (March 1st) and Rubio in Florida (15th) then Trump wins nomination
Also know as a statement of the bleeding obvious.
If Trump beats both Cruz and Rubio in their home states how is anyone going to stop him ?
It's actually obvious for another reason - it assumes Trump has a good Super Tuesday, good enough to take Florida, which implies Rubio hasn't united the anti-Trump vote.
Florida isn't until the 15th, as ScottP said.
But Rubio won't be able to unite an 'anti-Trump' vote unless Cruz drops out. Did you mean 'good enough to take Texas'? I think it's unlikely that Cruz will drop out before mid-March whatever but the loss of Texas might be enough (note that Texas' delegates are not awarded strictly proportionately - the allocations heavily favour the candidate/s who perform best.
In any case, Trump is running at about 38% in the national polls; he may well already be ahead of the 'anti-Trump' vote i.e. 12 of the 62% of those currently supporting other candidates may switch to Trump if the preferred candidate dropped out.
So if it were a commons vote REMAIN would win easily.
More to the point, in a Commons vote after a Leave, the least-disruptive options (i.e. an EEA-style deal) would presumably win easily.
This is an aspect which the commentariat doesn't seem to have given any thought to, but it's potentially quite explosive if Leave wins on migration fears.
It's staring the commentariat in the face. For most voters a Remain or Leave vote is going to make no difference. Immigration policy will be almost entirely unaffected whichever side wins.
Nope.
If we Leave a party will be able to put in its manifesto that ALL visitors will be treated equally, regardless of nationality.
It is a fundamental change
Should we vote Leave, by the time of the next GE there would be a new agreement in place, negotiated by the Conservative government, that enshrines free movement of goods, services, people and capital. The Tory Leavers and Remainers who have a chance of leading the party do not disagree on this. And they will be doing the deal.
Which is why all these accusations from the Remainders that we don't know what Leave would look like are rubbish. We know who will be negotiating the deal generally even if we don't know the name of the PM at that point. So we know that the Single Market freedoms either I'm actuality or in effect will be in place.
Absolutely right. For most people a Remain or Leave result will make very little difference. It's a lot of shouting over relatively little.
Only if you consider immigration to be the only important issue. Otherwise there are many areas of people's lives where there will be a steady change. As I have said before, people really don't realise how much the EU impacts on their daily lives.
@afneil: Had private briefing by Republican insiders: if Trump beats Cruz in Texas (March 1st) and Rubio in Florida (15th) then Trump wins nomination
Also know as a statement of the bleeding obvious.
If Trump beats both Cruz and Rubio in their home states how is anyone going to stop him ?
It's actually obvious for another reason - it assumes Trump has a good Super Tuesday, good enough to take Florida, which implies Rubio hasn't united the anti-Trump vote.
Florida isn't until the 15th, as ScottP said.
But Rubio won't be able to unite an 'anti-Trump' vote unless Cruz drops out. Did you mean 'good enough to take Texas'? I think it's unlikely that Cruz will drop out before mid-March whatever but the loss of Texas might be enough (note that Texas' delegates are not awarded strictly proportionately - the allocations heavily favour the candidate/s who perform best.
In any case, Trump is running at about 38% in the national polls; he may well already be ahead of the 'anti-Trump' vote i.e. 12 of the 62% of those currently supporting other candidates may switch to Trump if the preferred candidate dropped out.
What I meant was it implies is that Cruz does not drop out between Texas and Florida. If we get to Florida and Cruz is hanging about, then Rubio is done for.
Trump's vote does seem to cap out at 40-45% (although of course we wait and see exactly). But Rubio needs an incisive victory against Cruz which ensures he (Rubio) gets Florida.
So if it were a commons vote REMAIN would win easily.
More to the point, in a Commons vote after a Leave, the least-disruptive options (i.e. an EEA-style deal) would presumably win easily.
This is an aspect which the commentariat doesn't seem to have given any thought to, but it's potentially quite explosive if Leave wins on migration fears.
It's staring the commentariat in the face. For most voters a Remain or Leave vote is going to make no difference. Immigration policy will be almost entirely unaffected whichever side wins.
Nope.
If we Leave a party will be able to put in its manifesto that ALL visitors will be treated equally, regardless of nationality.
It is a fundamental change
Yeah, but it's also bullshit.
The fact is that immigration policies, all immigration policies, are racist.
So, there will continue to be working holiday arrangements with Australians and New Zealanders, for example. And there would be University 'swaps' with institutions in North America and Europe. Etc. etc. etc.
That is why I like the EU so much, because fundamentally it is a civilising force in an increasingly erratic world.
So I for one am more than happy to cede powers to the EU, and with DC on my side, long may it continue
Of course I mean in am entirely negative way. The idea that the EU as an institution has any sort of civilising effect is frankly laughable.
Five years ago I may not have agreed with you - but rising political tensions have shown the EU up to be asleep at the wheel, and therefore a danger to "civilisation" in Europe
So if it were a commons vote REMAIN would win easily.
More to the point, in a Commons vote after a Leave, the least-disruptive options (i.e. an EEA-style deal) would presumably win easily.
This is an aspect which the commentariat doesn't seem to have given any thought to, but it's potentially quite explosive if Leave wins on migration fears.
It's staring the commentariat in the face. For most voters a Remain or Leave vote is going to make no difference. Immigration policy will be almost entirely unaffected whichever side wins.
Nope.
If we Leave a party will be able to put in its manifesto that ALL visitors will be treated equally, regardless of nationality.
It is a fundamental change
Should we vote Leave, by the time of the next GE there would be a new agreement in place, negotiated by the Conservative government, that enshrines free movement of goods, services, people and capital. The Tory Leavers and Remainers who have a chance of leading the party do not disagree on this. And they will be doing the deal.
Which is why all these accusations from the Remainders that we don't know what Leave would look like are rubbish. We know who will be negotiating the deal generally even if we don't know the name of the PM at that point. So we know that the Single Market freedoms either I'm actuality or in effect will be in place.
Absolutely right. For most people a Remain or Leave result will make very little difference. It's a lot of shouting over relatively little.
Only if you consider immigration to be the only important issue. Otherwise there are many areas of people's lives where there will be a steady change. As I have said before, people really don't realise how much the EU impacts on their daily lives.
I think a few million Greeks and Spaniard would disagree with you...
@lucycthomas: .@Anna_Soubry nails Nigel Farage on what Out would look like. He admits NO single market. Means prices up,tariffs & barriers #c4news #euref
Pfft by an average of what, 1-1.5% I am sure people are worried.
Thats only Farages version of Out. There are 56 other varieties.
And the USA has said it does not want to make FTAs with individual countries and would not conclude one with a brexited UK. (US trade representative, Michael Froman)
Of course the US would sign an agreement with the UK, in the event of Brexit. We aren't Cuba.
The whole point of leaving the EU is that we can be just like Cuba if we wish.
So goes the logic of the leave campaign.
Ask George Galloway.
I think it's unlikely we'll have a violent communist revolution in this country.
Cameron with his back to the wall is a force of nature. He skinned the Brexit team today. Cameron is the Djokovic of UK politics. He is by far the best. But, if any other starts closing in, he has gears to use if necessary. Against Ed he had to shift into 3rd during the 3rd week of the campaign. I don't think he even went into fourth, fifth, or even sixth. There is no way Brexit has a chance against Cameron. Much the same as Murray, Federer, Nadal et al.... Cameron towers over...... I for one will start hoping he changes his mind about his departure.... So, for betters, bet against DC, and you lose money comrades.
How come that Cameron lost the Juncker election and the first vote to bomb Syria?
So if it were a commons vote REMAIN would win easily.
More to the point, in a Commons vote after a Leave, the least-disruptive options (i.e. an EEA-style deal) would presumably win easily.
This is an aspect which the commentariat doesn't seem to have given any thought to, but it's potentially quite explosive if Leave wins on migration fears.
It's staring the commentariat in the face. For most voters a Remain or Leave vote is going to make no difference. Immigration policy will be almost entirely unaffected whichever side wins.
Nope.
If we Leave a party will be able to put in its manifesto that ALL visitors will be treated equally, regardless of nationality.
It is a fundamental change
Yeah, but it's also bullshit.
The fact is that immigration policies, all immigration policies, are racist.
So, there will continue to be working holiday arrangements with Australians and New Zealanders, for example. And there would be University 'swaps' with institutions in North America and Europe. Etc. etc. etc.
All immigration policies are racist?
So Australia and Canada, to name two, are racist.
In that they do not treat people from all countries equally, yes.
So if it were a commons vote REMAIN would win easily.
More to the point, in a Commons vote after a Leave, the least-disruptive options (i.e. an EEA-style deal) would presumably win easily.
This is an aspect which the commentariat doesn't seem to have given any thought to, but it's potentially quite explosive if Leave wins on migration fears.
It's staring the commentariat in the face. For most voters a Remain or Leave vote is going to make no difference. Immigration policy will be almost entirely unaffected whichever side wins.
Nope.
If we Leave a party will be able to put in its manifesto that ALL visitors will be treated equally, regardless of nationality.
It is a fundamental change
Yeah, but it's also bullshit.
The fact is that immigration policies, all immigration policies, are racist.
So, there will continue to be working holiday arrangements with Australians and New Zealanders, for example. And there would be University 'swaps' with institutions in North America and Europe. Etc. etc. etc.
We could have a system damn less arbitrary than a man from Romania having a prima facie right to indefinite residency in the UK with no more qualification than his mate over the border in Moldova who gets nothing.
Sure. You can say less discriminatory, or less racist, if you like.
But the idea that we will treat people from every country in the world equally is utter bullshit.
Of course we won't but we should. I have no interest in nationality, I want people coming here to be of benefit to us, not the other way round, I don't care where they come from.
Cameron with his back to the wall is a force of nature. He skinned the Brexit team today. Cameron is the Djokovic of UK politics. He is by far the best. But, if any other starts closing in, he has gears to use if necessary. Against Ed he had to shift into 3rd during the 3rd week of the campaign. I don't think he even went into fourth, fifth, or even sixth. There is no way Brexit has a chance against Cameron. Much the same as Murray, Federer, Nadal et al.... Cameron towers over...... I for one will start hoping he changes his mind about his departure.... So, for betters, bet against DC, and you lose money comrades.
How come that Cameron lost the Juncker election and the first vote to bomb Syria?
He lost the first Syria vote because EdM was a twat...
There would be a reduction in the numbers who could exercise their rights under free movement if Leave were to win.
Europeans would then return to being subject to the same visa requirements as non-EU citizens, and the application of 'no recourse to public funds' restrictions would become more prevalent for EU workers here on visas.
Presumably Britons would need a visa to travel to the Continent too then?
Permission to live in Spain? Use of Spanish health services? And that’s just Spain.
I've never found the concept of Spain imposing immigration controls on British citizens to be intolerable.
Seriously, to campaign for Brexit, given the current variables in the world, and I'll try to be as eloquent as I can be, you have to be such fucking, deranged, ideological, half wit, mentally ill morons that should be prohibited from voting following a psychiatric assessment.
Brexiters- you may as well as start a campaign for slavery you stupid, backward looking, imbeciles.
And I have tried to be nice, and discuss the arguments with nuance and elegance.
So if it were a commons vote REMAIN would win easily.
More to the point, in a Commons vote after a Leave, the least-disruptive options (i.e. an EEA-style deal) would presumably win easily.
This is an aspect which the commentariat doesn't seem to have given any thought to, but it's potentially quite explosive if Leave wins on migration fears.
It's staring the commentariat in the face. For most voters a Remain or Leave vote is going to make no difference. Immigration policy will be almost entirely unaffected whichever side wins.
Nope.
If we Leave a party will be able to put in its manifesto that ALL visitors will be treated equally, regardless of nationality.
It is a fundamental change
Yeah, but it's also bullshit.
The fact is that immigration policies, all immigration policies, are racist.
So, there will continue to be working holiday arrangements with Australians and New Zealanders, for example. And there would be University 'swaps' with institutions in North America and Europe. Etc. etc. etc.
All immigration policies are racist?
So Australia and Canada, to name two, are racist.
In that they do not treat people from all countries equally, yes.
We could at least swap a system of direct discrimination for one of indirect discrimination although I wonder how much of that shift we would actually achieve.
So if it were a commons vote REMAIN would win easily.
More to the point, in a Commons vote after a Leave, the least-disruptive options (i.e. an EEA-style deal) would presumably win easily.
This is an aspect which the commentariat doesn't seem to have given any thought to, but it's potentially quite explosive if Leave wins on migration fears.
It's staring the commentariat in the face. For most voters a Remain or Leave vote is going to make no difference. Immigration policy will be almost entirely unaffected whichever side wins.
Nope.
If we Leave a party will be able to put in its manifesto that ALL visitors will be treated equally, regardless of nationality.
It is a fundamental change
Should we vote Leave, by the time of the next GE there would be a new agreement in place, negotiated by the Conservative government, that enshrines free movement of goods, services, people and capital. The Tory Leavers and Remainers who have a chance of leading the party do not disagree on this. And they will be doing the deal.
Which is why all these accusations from the Remainders that we don't know what Leave would look like are rubbish. We know who will be negotiating the deal generally even if we don't know the name of the PM at that point. So we know that the Single Market freedoms either I'm actuality or in effect will be in place.
Absolutely right. For most people a Remain or Leave result will make very little difference. It's a lot of shouting over relatively little.
Only if you consider immigration to be the only important issue. Otherwise there are many areas of people's lives where there will be a steady change. As I have said before, people really don't realise how much the EU impacts on their daily lives.
When prostitution in Greece has sored by several hundred percent in a matter of years and women are willing to sell their bodies for €4 an hour I would argue that the EU is far from a civilising force.
Seriously, to campaign for Brexit, given the current variables in the world, and I'll try to be as eloquent as I can be, you have to be such fucking, deranged, ideological, half wit, mentally ill morons that should be prohibited from voting following a psychiatric assessment.
Brexiters- you may as well as start a campaign for slavery you stupid, backward looking, imbeciles.
And I have tried to be nice, and discuss the arguments with nuance and elegance.
Seriously, to campaign for Brexit, given the current variables in the world, and I'll try to be as eloquent as I can be, you have to be such fucking, deranged, ideological, half wit, mentally ill morons that should be prohibited from voting following a psychiatric assessment.
Brexiters- you may as well as start a campaign for slavery you stupid, backward looking, imbeciles.
And I have tried to be nice, and discuss the arguments with nuance and elegance.
@afneil: Had private briefing by Republican insiders: if Trump beats Cruz in Texas (March 1st) and Rubio in Florida (15th) then Trump wins nomination
Also know as a statement of the bleeding obvious.
If Trump beats both Cruz and Rubio in their home states how is anyone going to stop him ?
It's actually obvious for another reason - it assumes Trump has a good Super Tuesday, good enough to take Florida, which implies Rubio hasn't united the anti-Trump vote.
Florida isn't until the 15th, as ScottP said.
But Rubio won't be able to unite an 'anti-Trump' vote unless Cruz drops out. Did you mean 'good enough to take Texas'? I think it's unlikely that Cruz will drop out before mid-March whatever but the loss of Texas might be enough (note that Texas' delegates are not awarded strictly proportionately - the allocations heavily favour the candidate/s who perform best.
In any case, Trump is running at about 38% in the national polls; he may well already be ahead of the 'anti-Trump' vote i.e. 12 of the 62% of those currently supporting other candidates may switch to Trump if the preferred candidate dropped out.
What I meant was it implies is that Cruz does not drop out between Texas and Florida. If we get to Florida and Cruz is hanging about, then Rubio is done for.
Trump's vote does seem to cap out at 40-45% (although of course we wait and see exactly). But Rubio needs an incisive victory against Cruz which ensures he (Rubio) gets Florida.
Yes, I'd agree with that. It's very easy to see Rubio and Cruz battling each other so long for the right to take Trump on that by the time one of them's established the pecking order, Trump already has all the delegates he needs.
So if it were a commons vote REMAIN would win easily.
More to the point, in a Commons vote after a Leave, the least-disruptive options (i.e. an EEA-style deal) would presumably win easily.
This is an aspect which the commentariat doesn't seem to have given any thought to, but it's potentially quite explosive if Leave wins on migration fears.
It's staring the commentariat in the face. For most voters a Remain or Leave vote is going to make no difference. Immigration policy will be almost entirely unaffected whichever side wins.
Nope.
If we Leave a party will be able to put in its manifesto that ALL visitors will be treated equally, regardless of nationality.
It is a fundamental change
Should we vote Leave, by the time of the next GE there would be a new agreement in place, negotiated by the Conservative government, that enshrines free movement of goods, services, people and capital. The Tory Leavers and Remainers who have a chance of leading the party do not disagree on this. And they will be doing the deal.
Which is why all these accusations from the Remainders that we don't know what Leave would look like are rubbish. We know who will be negotiating the deal generally even if we don't know the name of the PM at that point. So we know that the Single Market freedoms either I'm actuality or in effect will be in place.
Absolutely right. For most people a Remain or Leave result will make very little difference. It's a lot of shouting over relatively little.
Only if you consider immigration to be the only important issue. Otherwise there are many areas of people's lives where there will be a steady change. As I have said before, people really don't realise how much the EU impacts on their daily lives.
When prostitution in Greece has sored by several hundred percent in a matter of years and women are willing to sell their bodies for €4 an hour I would argue that the EU is far from a civilising force.
PS I'm writing this from a freezing camp on the Laikipia plateau, Kenya. Today I saw my first ever cheetah in the wild. Three of them, playing, as the sun set. Magical.
Enviable.
Meanwhile, some of us here are warming to Cameron. :-)
Cameron with his back to the wall is a force of nature. He skinned the Brexit team today. Cameron is the Djokovic of UK politics. He is by far the best. But, if any other starts closing in, he has gears to use if necessary. Against Ed he had to shift into 3rd during the 3rd week of the campaign. I don't think he even went into fourth, fifth, or even sixth. There is no way Brexit has a chance against Cameron. Much the same as Murray, Federer, Nadal et al.... Cameron towers over...... I for one will start hoping he changes his mind about his departure.... So, for betters, bet against DC, and you lose money comrades.
How come that Cameron lost the Juncker election and the first vote to bomb Syria?
Seriously, to campaign for Brexit, given the current variables in the world, and I'll try to be as eloquent as I can be, you have to be such fucking, deranged, ideological, half wit, mentally ill morons that should be prohibited from voting following a psychiatric assessment.
Brexiters- you may as well as start a campaign for slavery you stupid, backward looking, imbeciles.
And I have tried to be nice, and discuss the arguments with nuance and elegance.
You can get 7/1 on David Cameron ceasing to be Tory leader in 2016 with William Hills.
This is one of the best bets out there on the EU referendum, IMHO.
It pays out if Leave win, and may well pay out too if there is a narrow Remain win and it all turns sour.
A resignation in late June would allow a contest to complete by September. Alternatively, firing the starting gun at Tory conference for a beauty contest would allow a election to complete by the end the year, in December, just as in 2005.
So if it were a commons vote REMAIN would win easily.
More to the point, in a Commons vote after a Leave, the least-disruptive options (i.e. an EEA-style deal) would presumably win easily.
This is an aspect which the commentariat doesn't seem to have given any thought to, but it's potentially quite explosive if Leave wins on migration fears.
It's staring the commentariat in the face. For most voters a Remain or Leave vote is going to make no difference. Immigration policy will be almost entirely unaffected whichever side wins.
Nope.
If we Leave a party will be able to put in its manifesto that ALL visitors will be treated equally, regardless of nationality.
It is a fundamental change
Should we vote Leave, by the time of the next GE there would be a new agreement in place, negotiated by the Conservative government, that enshrines free movement of goods, services, people and capital. The Tory Leavers and Remainers who have a chance of leading the party do not disagree on this. And they will be doing the deal.
Which is why all these accusations from the Remainders that we don't know what Leave would look like are rubbish. We know who will be negotiating the deal generally even if we don't know the name of the PM at that point. So we know that the Single Market freedoms either I'm actuality or in effect will be in place.
Absolutely right. For most people a Remain or Leave result will make very little difference. It's a lot of shouting over relatively little.
There are many good aspects of the EU. But in recent years we have seen the rise of Golden Dawn and Syriza in Greece, the FN grow in France, Pegida in Germany and the AFD start to get some traction, as well as some unpleasant behaviour by the government in Hungary.
Some of this may be down to local factors but some is also in reaction to how the EU is working or not working. The EU's forced march towards a political union risks opening up rather older European fissures. I would not be quite so sanguine about what this could mean. Liberal democracy has not really been the default of most European countries for very long and for many democracy is barely one generation old.
That is why I like the EU so much, because fundamentally it is a civilising force in an increasingly erratic world.
Have you spoken to any Greeks about the civilising effect of the EU recently? They have a little bit of history on the matter....and of civilisation generally.
I was right, wasn't I? About the emotional backlash against Cameron. EVEN IF HE WINS HE WILL BE HATED.
I like Cameron, and even I could have called that years ago - half his party disagree with him on this one (and even with a better deal probably 1/4-1/3 would have) and many of those would end up hating him for speaking against them, particularly if he wins. One of the more predictable political happenings.
The Tory party did not agree with Churchill in his wilderness years. Who was voted the Greatest Briton of all time? Should we view someone by the judgement of backbench tories.
Churchill was a backbench MP when he raised those issues. Just like er Boris, or Graham Brady or Liam Fox or ....
You can get 7/1 on David Cameron ceasing to be Tory leader in 2016 with William Hills.
This is one of the best bets out there on the EU referendum, IMHO.
It pays out if Leave win, and may well pay out too if there is a narrow Remain win and it all turns sour.
A resignation in late June would allow a contest to complete by September. Alternatively, firing the starting gun at Tory conference for a beauty contest would allow a election to complete by the end the year, in December, just as in 2005.
Cameron with his back to the wall is a force of nature. He skinned the Brexit team today. Cameron is the Djokovic of UK politics. He is by far the best. But, if any other starts closing in, he has gears to use if necessary. Against Ed he had to shift into 3rd during the 3rd week of the campaign. I don't think he even went into fourth, fifth, or even sixth. There is no way Brexit has a chance against Cameron. Much the same as Murray, Federer, Nadal et al.... Cameron towers over...... I for one will start hoping he changes his mind about his departure.... So, for betters, bet against DC, and you lose money comrades.
How come that Cameron lost the Juncker election and the first vote to bomb Syria?
Upsetting a bloke that you knew you would later have to get a deal from was very very stupid. But Cameron/Osborne rarely think beyond the next one or two moves.
You can get 7/1 on David Cameron ceasing to be Tory leader in 2016 with William Hills.
This is one of the best bets out there on the EU referendum, IMHO.
It pays out if Leave win, and may well pay out too if there is a narrow Remain win and it all turns sour.
A resignation in late June would allow a contest to complete by September. Alternatively, firing the starting gun at Tory conference for a beauty contest would allow a election to complete by the end the year, in December, just as in 2005.
I've had £20.
Could Dave dig his feet in after a vote to Leave? It looks like good value and would be a nice hedge against my rather large Remain position.
You can get 7/1 on David Cameron ceasing to be Tory leader in 2016 with William Hills.
This is one of the best bets out there on the EU referendum, IMHO.
It pays out if Leave win, and may well pay out too if there is a narrow Remain win and it all turns sour.
A resignation in late June would allow a contest to complete by September. Alternatively, firing the starting gun at Tory conference for a beauty contest would allow a election to complete by the end the year, in December, just as in 2005.
I've had £20.
Could Dave dig his feet in after a vote to Leave?
I doubt he'd last the day before the men in grey suits came calling.
Seriously, Nick. I am having a bit of love in with DC. I know he offered the vote through political expediency, and all that, but the Europe boil needed to be lanced for a generation. And out of mediocrity and compromise steps David Cameron who is going to achieve a lasting political legacy through facing down all these Eurosceptic morons.
Good on him. I can almost forgive him for the badgers, not quite, but almost.
PS I'm writing this from a freezing camp on the Laikipia plateau, Kenya. Today I saw my first ever cheetah in the wild. Three of them, playing, as the sun set. Magical.
Enviable.
Meanwhile, some of us here are warming to Cameron. :-)
Vincent ITV Updated: End of play Monday Tory #EURef tally: REMAIN 129 OUT 120 UNDECIDED 45 UNKNOWN 36
So if it were a commons vote REMAIN would win easily.
Higher than I thought. I thought Leave would be on 110-120 Tory MPs and it looks like it's already topped that.
If it wasn't for the payroll vote, I think Leave would have a Tory majority.
Again with this "payroll vote" malarky, when it's a free vote. May as well say if it wasn't for the leavers remain would have unanimity.
You're not getting this.
Those in the Government are obliged to support the Government, particularly if they want a future career. It's where they get their pay and rations.
To go against it is a big deal. That's why 80%+ of the 108 MPs in it aren't backing Leave, whereas over 50% of the backbenches are.
In addition, there will be MPs on the backbenches who support Leave who think discretion is the better part of valour for the sake of their future careers.
@MrHarryCole: Snr 1922 Committee MP says PM is "toast" if he loses EU ref: “I’m going to the wardrobe for my grey suit already": https://t.co/iVZe8zmjJJ
So if it were a commons vote REMAIN would win easily.
More to the point, in a Commons vote after a Leave, the least-disruptive options (i.e. an EEA-style deal) would presumably win easily.
This is an aspect which the commentariat doesn't seem to have given any thought to, but it's potentially quite explosive if Leave wins on migration fears.
It's staring the commentariat in the face. For most voters a Remain or Leave vote is going to make no difference. Immigration policy will be almost entirely unaffected whichever side wins.
Nope.
If we Leave a party will be able to put in its manifesto that ALL visitors will be treated equally, regardless of nationality.
It is a fundamental change
Yeah, but it's also bullshit.
The fact is that immigration policies, all immigration policies, are racist.
So, there will continue to be working holiday arrangements with Australians and New Zealanders, for example. And there would be University 'swaps' with institutions in North America and Europe. Etc. etc. etc.
All immigration policies are racist?
So Australia and Canada, to name two, are racist.
In that they do not treat people from all countries equally, yes.
Does the points system give different points to different countries??
@MrHarryCole: Snr 1922 Committee MP says PM is "toast" if he loses EU ref: “I’m going to the wardrobe for my grey suit already": https://t.co/iVZe8zmjJJ
'A senior figure elected onto the weighty backbench faction – nicknamed “The 22” or “the men in grey suits” – told The Sun: “Cameron has now proven himself to be a poor negotiator.
“If we vote to come out of Europe then we will need to send someone else to cut the deal, and that’s before he’s even negotiated with his own MPs.”'
Seriously, Nick. I am having a bit of love in with DC. I know he offered the vote through political expediency, and all that, but the Europe boil needed to be lanced for a generation. And out of mediocrity and compromise steps David Cameron who is going to achieve a lasting political legacy through facing down all these Eurosceptic morons.
Good on him. I can almost forgive him for the badgers, not quite, but almost.
PS I'm writing this from a freezing camp on the Laikipia plateau, Kenya. Today I saw my first ever cheetah in the wild. Three of them, playing, as the sun set. Magical.
Enviable.
Meanwhile, some of us here are warming to Cameron. :-)
You have Badgers in Italy infecting the cattle as well? Gosh never knew that.
I was right, wasn't I? About the emotional backlash against Cameron. EVEN IF HE WINS HE WILL BE HATED.
I like Cameron, and even I could have called that years ago - half his party disagree with him on this one (and even with a better deal probably 1/4-1/3 would have) and many of those would end up hating him for speaking against them, particularly if he wins. One of the more predictable political happenings.
The Tory party did not agree with Churchill in his wilderness years. Who was voted the Greatest Briton of all time? Should we view someone by the judgement of backbench tories.
Churchill was a backbench MP when he raised those issues. Just like er Boris, or Graham Brady or Liam Fox or ....
You can get 7/1 on David Cameron ceasing to be Tory leader in 2016 with William Hills.
This is one of the best bets out there on the EU referendum, IMHO.
It pays out if Leave win, and may well pay out too if there is a narrow Remain win and it all turns sour.
A resignation in late June would allow a contest to complete by September. Alternatively, firing the starting gun at Tory conference for a beauty contest would allow a election to complete by the end the year, in December, just as in 2005.
I've had £20.
Could Dave dig his feet in after a vote to Leave? It looks like good value and would be a nice hedge against my rather large Remain position.
@MrHarryCole: Snr 1922 Committee MP says PM is "toast" if he loses EU ref: “I’m going to the wardrobe for my grey suit already": https://t.co/iVZe8zmjJJ
Cameron toast regardless?
Under the current rules, a leadership contest can be triggered in two ways.
Firstly if 15 per cent of the party – 49 MPs – write to the committee chairman Graham Brady saying they no longer had confidence in David Cameron — or if the PM quit.
Tonight another member of the committee warned: “The writing is on the wall. It is only a matter of when.”
What today really showed is the ineptness of Jeremy Corbyn.
You have to take your hat off to Corbyn. It’s a work of pure and evil genius to be able to say virtually nothing, but speak in such volumes. To conjure with contradiction and ambiguity, and discover such startling clarity. To embrace irrelevance yet become a figure of such malign significance to your own party
@MrHarryCole: Snr 1922 Committee MP says PM is "toast" if he loses EU ref: “I’m going to the wardrobe for my grey suit already": https://t.co/iVZe8zmjJJ
Cameron toast regardless?
Under the current rules, a leadership contest can be triggered in two ways.
Firstly if 15 per cent of the party – 49 MPs – write to the committee chairman Graham Brady saying they no longer had confidence in David Cameron — or if the PM quit.
Tonight another member of the committee warned: “The writing is on the wall. It is only a matter of when.”
There's a whiff of decay around Cameron today.
I think Boris Johnson would be an utterly useless leader, but the Prime Minster made a mistake with his personal attack this afternoon.
Did somebody say the Euros are being played over 23/6? If so that's awful timing by Dave, lose on pens to Germany and we all know how the WWC will vote.
There are never going to be any visa restrictions between the UK and citizens of Western Europe of any sort. It would be political and economic suicide. The Leave campaign needs to admit that it's "regaining control of our borders" slogan is sham.
Western Europe and the EU are not the same thing.
If they still were, this whole issue would never have gained traction.
So if it were a commons vote REMAIN would win easily.
More to the point, in a Commons vote after a Leave, the least-disruptive options (i.e. an EEA-style deal) would presumably win easily.
This is an aspect which the commentariat doesn't seem to have given any thought to, but it's potentially quite explosive if Leave wins on migration fears.
It's staring the commentariat in the face. For most voters a Remain or Leave vote is going to make no difference. Immigration policy will be almost entirely unaffected whichever side wins.
Nope.
If we Leave a party will be able to put in its manifesto that ALL visitors will be treated equally, regardless of nationality.
It is a fundamental change
Should we vote Leave, by the time of the next GE there would be a new agreement in place, negotiated by the Conservative government, that enshrines free movement of goods, services, people and capital. The Tory Leavers and Remainers who have a chance of leading the party do not disagree on this. And they will be doing the deal.
I have a working theory (if Leave wins) that Gove could take over, take us out, and then resign for a more popular figure to be elected in time for the 2020GE.
He is not about ego. He is about principles. And he's absolutely the man I'd want in the negotiating room.
Seriously, to campaign for Brexit, given the current variables in the world, and I'll try to be as eloquent as I can be, you have to be such fucking, deranged, ideological, half wit, mentally ill morons that should be prohibited from voting following a psychiatric assessment.
Brexiters- you may as well as start a campaign for slavery you stupid, backward looking, imbeciles.
And I have tried to be nice, and discuss the arguments with nuance and elegance.
I think the Betfair market for the GOP nomination is being manipulated. Massively - there is someone with deep pockets holding Rubio up and taking an almighty red position on Ted Cruz that barely makes sense.
@MrHarryCole: Snr 1922 Committee MP says PM is "toast" if he loses EU ref: “I’m going to the wardrobe for my grey suit already": https://t.co/iVZe8zmjJJ
Cameron toast regardless?
Under the current rules, a leadership contest can be triggered in two ways.
Firstly if 15 per cent of the party – 49 MPs – write to the committee chairman Graham Brady saying they no longer had confidence in David Cameron — or if the PM quit.
Tonight another member of the committee warned: “The writing is on the wall. It is only a matter of when.”
There's a whiff of decay around Cameron today. I am sure 49 MPs could be found after Cameron has turned on his own party. Adam Afriyie supposedly managed to find 40 several years back.
I think the Betfair market for the GOP nomination is being manipulated. Massively - there is someone with deep pockets holding Rubio up and taking an almighty red position on Ted Cruz that barely makes sense.
Actually, you will find that the TB incidence in Italy is much less. Perhaps this is due to the fact that Italians farm and rear their cattle and slaughter them much more humanely, but pay more for their meat.
In the UK people want to go Tescos, and buy a pack of 2 sirloin steaks for a fiver, or less. With Brexit, and without any kind of regulation, we can drive our terrible, inhumane meat production even lower.
As said previously, Europe can be a much more civilising influence and teach us how to behave that bit better. Go DC. In the unlikeliest places, people find their heroes.....
Seriously, Nick. I am having a bit of love in with DC. I know he offered the vote through political expediency, and all that, but the Europe boil needed to be lanced for a generation. And out of mediocrity and compromise steps David Cameron who is going to achieve a lasting political legacy through facing down all these Eurosceptic morons.
Good on him. I can almost forgive him for the badgers, not quite, but almost.
PS I'm writing this from a freezing camp on the Laikipia plateau, Kenya. Today I saw my first ever cheetah in the wild. Three of them, playing, as the sun set. Magical.
Enviable.
Meanwhile, some of us here are warming to Cameron. :-)
You have Badgers in Italy infecting the cattle as well? Gosh never knew that.
I think the Betfair market for the GOP nomination is being manipulated. Massively - there is someone with deep pockets holding Rubio up and taking an almighty red position on Ted Cruz that barely makes sense.
I think the Betfair market for the GOP nomination is being manipulated. Massively - there is someone with deep pockets holding Rubio up and taking an almighty red position on Ted Cruz that barely makes sense.
I wonder if it is anything to do with the RNC.
You must be right I think. Trump is 90% certain to be the candidate, Rubio 10%.
If the letters are written, I cannot see Cam surviving a vote of no confidence - at least, not with enough of a majority to command respect.
Yes, this issue is just too divisive (and the lameness of the deal not helping him). He was briefly master of all he surveyed when he won the GE unexpectedly, but even then this was going to hamstring him. My initial assumption had been he would try to leave toward the end of 2018, when a referendum could have happened in late 2017, give the new leader an 18 month run in, as if he won he could probably put off the still inevitable civil war as they were pretty near to the next GE. Now even if he wins they are too far out, he won't be going anywhere to heal the divide that will have emerged, so 15% of the MPs forcing the issue much sooner, trying to close the book on the issue sooner, seems pretty achievable.
Cameron with his back to the wall is a force of nature. He skinned the Brexit team today.
Cameron is the Djokovic of UK politics. He is by far the best. But, if any other starts closing in, he has gears to use if necessary. Against Ed he had to shift into 3rd during the 3rd week of the campaign. I don't think he even went into fourth, fifth, or even sixth.
There is no way Brexit has a chance against Cameron. Much the same as Murray, Federer, Nadal et al.... Cameron towers over......
I for one will start hoping he changes his mind about his departure....
So, for betters, bet against DC, and you lose money comrades.
LOL - shall we look at your past comments on Cameron.
@MrHarryCole: Snr 1922 Committee MP says PM is "toast" if he loses EU ref: “I’m going to the wardrobe for my grey suit already": https://t.co/iVZe8zmjJJ
Cameron toast regardless?
Under the current rules, a leadership contest can be triggered in two ways.
Firstly if 15 per cent of the party – 49 MPs – write to the committee chairman Graham Brady saying they no longer had confidence in David Cameron — or if the PM quit.
Tonight another member of the committee warned: “The writing is on the wall. It is only a matter of when.”
There's a whiff of decay around Cameron today.
As soon as the power of patronage starts to ebb, the tide fair races out. The Referendum campaign is now an extended round of job interviews for the next Prime Minister. And that new era of patronage.
Who can the Tories find to run ahead of the popularity of their party? That is quite a challenge....
Did somebody say the Euros are being played over 23/6? If so that's awful timing by Dave, lose on pens to Germany and we all know how the WWC will vote.
23rd is a rest day after the qualifiers. No worries for Dave though ......England would have been eliminated by then anyway.
Comments
I am not promising anyone can give you a definitive answer on which way you should vote but I doubt there are many other places where all the factors are laid bare and argued so comprehensively.
So goes the logic of the leave campaign.
Ask George Galloway.
If Trump beats both Cruz and Rubio in their home states how is anyone going to stop him ?
I'm expecting that you would need passports but noting else, due to the Northern Irish border and the Dublin ferries.
If he had he wouldn't have received the worst deal since Esau gave his inheritance for a bowl of porridge.
The fact is that immigration policies, all immigration policies, are racist.
So, there will continue to be working holiday arrangements with Australians and New Zealanders, for example. And there would be University 'swaps' with institutions in North America and Europe. Etc. etc. etc.
yes, that can be interpreted to mean anything they want, as indeed can
'any difference of treatment must be based on objective reasons'
and a couple of other clauses
Cyclefree is right as usual - the EU can interpret this stuff any way they want. And they will.
Go back to your bleats and tweets.
Last time I checked there were praising it as good for the EU.
"Life and pensions group Scottish Widows has insisted it remains committed to Edinburgh after transferring billions of pounds of life insurance business south of the Border.
The insurer, founded two centuries ago, said the switch of its long-term insurance to a company registered in London would have “no impact” on its 3,000-strong workforce in the Scottish capital, and dismissed suggestions that the move was linked to the independence referendum of 2014 or the looming vote on the UK’s membership of the European Union"
http://www.scotsman.com/business/companies/financial/scottish-widows-shifts-insurance-business-from-edinburgh-to-london-1-4035769#ixzz40vq5zNZ6
And the case was not just about Iran. There was a terrorist financing aspect to it involving East Africa. BNP were warned about that as well.
If you want to play at being an international bank you have to accept that you need to comply with more than the laws of your home country.
Since 6 Aug 2014, Wikipedia's list of Shakespearean characters has featured the entry
Bromodideuterio: is the apothecary from whom the court doctor Cornelius in Cymbeline obtains the false poison requested by the Queen to murder Cymbeline and Imogen and secure the throne. Cf.: the apothecary in Romeo and Juliet.
What a beautifully subtle piece of vandalism. One for the chemists of you.
Cameron is the Djokovic of UK politics. He is by far the best. But, if any other starts closing in, he has gears to use if necessary. Against Ed he had to shift into 3rd during the 3rd week of the campaign. I don't think he even went into fourth, fifth, or even sixth.
There is no way Brexit has a chance against Cameron. Much the same as Murray, Federer, Nadal et al.... Cameron towers over......
I for one will start hoping he changes his mind about his departure....
So, for betters, bet against DC, and you lose money comrades.
But the idea that we will treat people from every country in the world equally is utter bullshit.
But Rubio won't be able to unite an 'anti-Trump' vote unless Cruz drops out. Did you mean 'good enough to take Texas'? I think it's unlikely that Cruz will drop out before mid-March whatever but the loss of Texas might be enough (note that Texas' delegates are not awarded strictly proportionately - the allocations heavily favour the candidate/s who perform best.
In any case, Trump is running at about 38% in the national polls; he may well already be ahead of the 'anti-Trump' vote i.e. 12 of the 62% of those currently supporting other candidates may switch to Trump if the preferred candidate dropped out.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-35633471
That odd no mention of spitting and throat splitting gestures....
So I for one am more than happy to cede powers to the EU, and with DC on my side, long may it continue
The things she must have seen. WW1, the Great Crash, the Depression, the dust bowl, the lynchings. Doesn't seem to have held her down any!
I'm reminded of this TV clip:
http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2012/10/man-who-saw-lincoln-get-shot/263800/
Trump's vote does seem to cap out at 40-45% (although of course we wait and see exactly). But Rubio needs an incisive victory against Cruz which ensures he (Rubio) gets Florida.
So Australia and Canada, to name two, are racist.
I think Cameron/Osborne are in serious trouble, possibly whatever happens.
Brexiters- you may as well as start a campaign for slavery you stupid, backward looking, imbeciles.
And I have tried to be nice, and discuss the arguments with nuance and elegance.
Meanwhile, some of us here are warming to Cameron. :-)
You can get 7/1 on David Cameron ceasing to be Tory leader in 2016 with William Hills.
This is one of the best bets out there on the EU referendum, IMHO.
It pays out if Leave win, and may well pay out too if there is a narrow Remain win and it all turns sour.
A resignation in late June would allow a contest to complete by September. Alternatively, firing the starting gun at Tory conference for a beauty contest would allow a election to complete by the end the year, in December, just as in 2005.
I've had £20.
Some of this may be down to local factors but some is also in reaction to how the EU is working or not working. The EU's forced march towards a political union risks opening up rather older European fissures. I would not be quite so sanguine about what this could mean. Liberal democracy has not really been the default of most European countries for very long and for many democracy is barely one generation old.
Good on him. I can almost forgive him for the badgers, not quite, but almost.
Those in the Government are obliged to support the Government, particularly if they want a future career. It's where they get their pay and rations.
To go against it is a big deal. That's why 80%+ of the 108 MPs in it aren't backing Leave, whereas over 50% of the backbenches are.
In addition, there will be MPs on the backbenches who support Leave who think discretion is the better part of valour for the sake of their future careers.
After all, George Osborne has told them so.
“If we vote to come out of Europe then we will need to send someone else to cut the deal, and that’s before he’s even negotiated with his own MPs.”'
Someone like Blair, Smith, Callaghan, and Foot would have torn Cameron a new one over the Tory splits.
Maybe at a shop.
Cameron toast regardless?
I think Boris Johnson would be an utterly useless leader, but the Prime Minster made a mistake with his personal attack this afternoon.
If they still were, this whole issue would never have gained traction.
Albania, Macedonia and Turkey are waiting.
He is not about ego. He is about principles. And he's absolutely the man I'd want in the negotiating room.
I wonder if it is anything to do with the RNC.
Never happened.
If the Leavers want Tories to start flocking back to Remain, then they should keep on talking about Leave = toppling of Cameron
I am sure 49 MPs could be found after Cameron has turned on his own party. Adam Afriyie supposedly managed to find 40 several years back.
In the UK people want to go Tescos, and buy a pack of 2 sirloin steaks for a fiver, or less. With Brexit, and without any kind of regulation, we can drive our terrible, inhumane meat production even lower.
As said previously, Europe can be a much more civilising influence and teach us how to behave that bit better. Go DC. In the unlikeliest places, people find their heroes.....
As soon as the power of patronage starts to ebb, the tide fair races out. The Referendum campaign is now an extended round of job interviews for the next Prime Minister. And that new era of patronage.
Who can the Tories find to run ahead of the popularity of their party? That is quite a challenge....
http://www.uefa.com/MultimediaFiles/Download/competitions/General/02/32/65/90/2326590_DOWNLOAD.pdf