So if it were a commons vote REMAIN would win easily.
More to the point, in a Commons vote after a Leave, the least-disruptive options (i.e. an EEA-style deal) would presumably win easily.
This is an aspect which the commentariat doesn't seem to have given any thought to, but it's potentially quite explosive if Leave wins on migration fears.
It's staring the commentariat in the face. For most voters a Remain or Leave vote is going to make no difference. Immigration policy will be almost entirely unaffected whichever side wins.
Nope.
If we Leave a party will be able to put in its manifesto that ALL visitors will be treated equally, regardless of nationality.
It is a fundamental change
Should we vote Leave, by the time of the next GE there would be a new agreement in place, negotiated by the Conservative government, that enshrines free movement of goods, services, people and capital. The Tory Leavers and Remainers who have a chance of leading the party do not disagree on this. And they will be doing the deal.
What you are stating is an opinion, not a fact. The Leavers want to manage immigration, it will be a major factor in any negotiations, if we vote Leave the electorate will be heard.
Some want to manage EU immigration. But it's a fact that the Tories who will actually be negotiating Brexit are fine with free movement of goods, services, capital and people.
Seriously, Nick. I am having a bit of love in with DC. I know he offered the vote through political expediency, and all that, but the Europe boil needed to be lanced for a generation. And out of mediocrity and compromise steps David Cameron who is going to achieve a lasting political legacy through facing down all these Eurosceptic morons.
Good on him. I can almost forgive him for the badgers, not quite, but almost.
PS I'm writing this from a freezing camp on the Laikipia plateau, Kenya. Today I saw my first ever cheetah in the wild. Three of them, playing, as the sun set. Magical.
Enviable.
Meanwhile, some of us here are warming to Cameron. :-)
He will - if Remain wins, as I expect it will - have achieved exactly the same political legacy in relation to the EU as Wilson. His negotiations will have achieved nothing to deal with the fundamental issue of what the relationship between a country in a minority and with several opt-outs should be vs the majority intent on a political/economic union. Because that has not been resolved in any real sense this issue will continue to be an issue in the medium and longer term for every British government, of whatever colour.
What he will have achieved brilliantly is winning the short term battle with his party and with UKIP and ending his career with another success. Dave will likely outsmart BoJo and get his mate George on the top team.
But this isn't about a lot of public school boys playing their games.
This is about us and our country and what its future should be and whether Europe as a whole, not just the EU, is on the right path. And all of that seems to have been forgotten a bit. Just like Labour are in love with an institution created in 1948 as if all wisdom about how a health service should be structured was known then and nothing since then could possibly change what was known then, so those in favour of the EU are in love with an institution created in 1958 in the same way. Both groups are exhibiting symptoms of the sunk cost fallacy.
I think the Betfair market for the GOP nomination is being manipulated. Massively - there is someone with deep pockets holding Rubio up and taking an almighty red position on Ted Cruz that barely makes sense.
I wonder if it is anything to do with the RNC.
You must be right I think. Trump is 90% certain to be the candidate, Rubio 10%.
It's probably a second order effect from Predictit actually - thats the "prediction" (Not betting !) market the US uses, someone will most likely be arbing it off against Betfair.
Actually, you will find that the TB incidence in Italy is much less. Perhaps this is due to the fact that Italians farm and rear their cattle and slaughter them much more humanely, but pay more for their meat.
In the UK people want to go Tescos, and buy a pack of 2 sirloin steaks for a fiver, or less. With Brexit, and without any kind of regulation, we can drive our terrible, inhumane meat production even lower.
As said previously, Europe can be a much more civilising influence and teach us how to behave that bit better. Go DC. In the unlikeliest places, people find their heroes.....
Seriously, Nick. I am having a bit of love in with DC. I know he offered the vote through political expediency, and all that, but the Europe boil needed to be lanced for a generation. And out of mediocrity and compromise steps David Cameron who is going to achieve a lasting political legacy through facing down all these Eurosceptic morons.
Good on him. I can almost forgive him for the badgers, not quite, but almost.
PS I'm writing this from a freezing camp on the Laikipia plateau, Kenya. Today I saw my first ever cheetah in the wild. Three of them, playing, as the sun set. Magical.
Enviable.
Meanwhile, some of us here are warming to Cameron. :-)
You have Badgers in Italy infecting the cattle as well? Gosh never knew that.
Such a snob. "Tyson Bucket, lady of the house speaking..."
You clearly don't realise that increased EU regulation has caused the closure of many medium and smaller abattoirs, leading to animals enduring increased suffering on longer journeys to more distant slaughter-houses.
You can get 7/1 on David Cameron ceasing to be Tory leader in 2016 with William Hills.
This is one of the best bets out there on the EU referendum, IMHO.
It pays out if Leave win, and may well pay out too if there is a narrow Remain win and it all turns sour.
A resignation in late June would allow a contest to complete by September. Alternatively, firing the starting gun at Tory conference for a beauty contest would allow a election to complete by the end the year, in December, just as in 2005.
I've had £20.
Could Dave dig his feet in after a vote to Leave? It looks like good value and would be a nice hedge against my rather large Remain position.
I think he'd resign. If he didn't, I'm afraid he'd be '22'ed.
I think the parliamentary party don't have confidence in his negotiation skills with the EU.
It's possible he could survive with a very very drastic reshuffle, putting Leavers in all the key positions, but we're talking at least a 10/1 shot of that.
Actually, you will find that the TB incidence in Italy is much less. Perhaps this is due to the fact that Italians farm and rear their cattle and slaughter them much more humanely, but pay more for their meat.
In the UK people want to go Tescos, and buy a pack of 2 sirloin steaks for a fiver, or less. With Brexit, and without any kind of regulation, we can drive our terrible, inhumane meat production even lower.
As said previously, Europe can be a much more civilising influence and teach us how to behave that bit better. Go DC. In the unlikeliest places, people find their heroes.....
Seriously, Nick. I am having a bit of love in with DC. I know he offered the vote through political expediency, and all that, but the Europe boil needed to be lanced for a generation. And out of mediocrity and compromise steps David Cameron who is going to achieve a lasting political legacy through facing down all these Eurosceptic morons.
Good on him. I can almost forgive him for the badgers, not quite, but almost.
PS I'm writing this from a freezing camp on the Laikipia plateau, Kenya. Today I saw my first ever cheetah in the wild. Three of them, playing, as the sun set. Magical.
Enviable.
Meanwhile, some of us here are warming to Cameron. :-)
You have Badgers in Italy infecting the cattle as well? Gosh never knew that.
Of course. Berlusconi shows us how to treat women in a civilised way.
Actually, you will find that the TB incidence in Italy is much less. Perhaps this is due to the fact that Italians farm and rear their cattle and slaughter them much more humanely, but pay more for their meat.
In the UK people want to go Tescos, and buy a pack of 2 sirloin steaks for a fiver, or less. With Brexit, and without any kind of regulation, we can drive our terrible, inhumane meat production even lower.
As said previously, Europe can be a much more civilising influence and teach us how to behave that bit better. Go DC. In the unlikeliest places, people find their heroes.....
And once again you make the perhaps purposeful error of conflating Europe and the EU. They are not the same thing at all.
And the UK animal welfare standards are better than many other parts of the EU. It is only your own bigotry that stops you seeing that.
@MrHarryCole: Snr 1922 Committee MP says PM is "toast" if he loses EU ref: “I’m going to the wardrobe for my grey suit already": https://t.co/iVZe8zmjJJ
Cameron toast regardless?
Under the current rules, a leadership contest can be triggered in two ways.
Firstly if 15 per cent of the party – 49 MPs – write to the committee chairman Graham Brady saying they no longer had confidence in David Cameron — or if the PM quit.
Tonight another member of the committee warned: “The writing is on the wall. It is only a matter of when.”
You have to think that if those 49 MP's hand in their letters, then Cameron wouldn't bother to fight on for what, a few more months? When you've already said you're going - you're gone.
What today really showed is the ineptness of Jeremy Corbyn.
Someone like Blair, Smith, Callaghan, and Foot would have torn Cameron a new one over the Tory splits.
Well Corbyn is rubbish, but he's not facing the 22.
Dave will be fine. The malcontented were like this in the last parliament, predicting Dave would face a no confidence vote and lose.
Never happened.
If the Leavers want Tories to start flocking back to Remain, then they should keep on talking about Leave = toppling of Cameron
The thing is, things can run out of control, even if no one intended them to do so at the outset. I'm pretty sure David Cameron never anticipated that his negotiations with the EU would be as badly received by centrist Conservatives as has been the case. So, in order to win, he has to be more ruthless than he thought he would have to be. In turn, that can lead people to retaliate, in ways that they hadn't anticipated doing.
@MrHarryCole: Snr 1922 Committee MP says PM is "toast" if he loses EU ref: “I’m going to the wardrobe for my grey suit already": https://t.co/iVZe8zmjJJ
Cameron toast regardless?
Under the current rules, a leadership contest can be triggered in two ways.
Firstly if 15 per cent of the party – 49 MPs – write to the committee chairman Graham Brady saying they no longer had confidence in David Cameron — or if the PM quit.
Tonight another member of the committee warned: “The writing is on the wall. It is only a matter of when.”
There's a whiff of decay around Cameron today.
I am sure 49 MPs could be found after Cameron has turned on his own party.. They've turned on each other. I've said it before, there's no doubt there were MPs lined up on election night ready to say how much they always thought Cameron was crap and not a true conservative, and were stunned and disappointed he became, briefly, untouchable. The level of personal vitriol he will face, sometimes for quite ordinary political behaviour, will I have no doubt be reflective of the element that had already turned on him long before this and hopes to use it as a means to undo other things he has done.
The thing he is most at fault for is not managing to minimise the party split by getting a deal which is so obviously poor apparently - it was always going to be shat upon by the malcontents, they were always going to call for him to go, win or lose, no matter how honourably, or not, he campaigned, but he need not have been deserted by so many, to the point he looks a busted flush less than a year after his great triumph.
I see no way for Cameron to last even to 2018. He's proven me wrong before, but even if most Tory MPs and members do not hate him, too many of them obviously do, too many for him to survive even if he wins. Him beating them, again, would not be something they could forgive.
I think the Betfair market for the GOP nomination is being manipulated. Massively - there is someone with deep pockets holding Rubio up and taking an almighty red position on Ted Cruz that barely makes sense.
I wonder if it is anything to do with the RNC.
Maybe people who don't understand the system...
"Hey, he's only on 35% nationally. That's a lot less than half, right?"
You can get 7/1 on David Cameron ceasing to be Tory leader in 2016 with William Hills.
This is one of the best bets out there on the EU referendum, IMHO.
It pays out if Leave win, and may well pay out too if there is a narrow Remain win and it all turns sour.
A resignation in late June would allow a contest to complete by September. Alternatively, firing the starting gun at Tory conference for a beauty contest would allow a election to complete by the end the year, in December, just as in 2005.
I've had £20.
Could Dave dig his feet in after a vote to Leave? It looks like good value and would be a nice hedge against my rather large Remain position.
Define "dig his feet in"...
There is a POV that Cameron will be forced to have a Mason Verger premiership: after having been made to cut his own face off by holding and losing the referendum, he should be kept in place long enough to feed it to the dogs and file the Article 50 motion to LEAVE. That way, the 1922 Committee get to fondle their inner Lecter.
Conversely he could kid himself that having lost a majority of his party and his country he is still an effective PM and see out the remainder of his spavined premiership in the company of people who speak quietly and are careful to make no sudden movements
So yes, he can dig his feet in. If he wants. There's no need to kill him twice.
Did somebody say the Euros are being played over 23/6? If so that's awful timing by Dave, lose on pens to Germany and we all know how the WWC will vote.
Not sure the WWC is that blinkered, to be honest. And in a few parts of the UK st least a few of them will be delighted to see England lose.
But, I profoundly struggle with the Brexit concept. I can kind of understand (not agree with) right wing and ideological concepts- lower taxation, benefit cuts, privatisation etc..; the EU debate, I just don't get it.
The world is fundamentally changing exponentially. As far as I am aware we need to work collectively, and in the first instance collaborate with those nations they we share some basic stuff with. I cannot for the life of me understand how everyone just doesn't get this fundamental fact.
Seriously, to campaign for Brexit, given the current variables in the world, and I'll try to be as eloquent as I can be, you have to be such fucking, deranged, ideological, half wit, mentally ill morons that should be prohibited from voting following a psychiatric assessment.
Brexiters- you may as well as start a campaign for slavery you stupid, backward looking, imbeciles.
And I have tried to be nice, and discuss the arguments with nuance and elegance.
I think the Betfair market for the GOP nomination is being manipulated. Massively - there is someone with deep pockets holding Rubio up and taking an almighty red position on Ted Cruz that barely makes sense.
I wonder if it is anything to do with the RNC.
I said that this morning
Can you explain to me how that works?
Are there big Rubio backers in the UK who think spending Sterling propping up his price *over here* is a good use of their time and money?
I think the Betfair market for the GOP nomination is being manipulated. Massively - there is someone with deep pockets holding Rubio up and taking an almighty red position on Ted Cruz that barely makes sense.
I wonder if it is anything to do with the RNC.
You must be right I think. Trump is 90% certain to be the candidate, Rubio 10%.
It's probably a second order effect from Predictit actually - thats the "prediction" (Not betting !) market the US uses, someone will most likely be arbing it off against Betfair.
Exactly my thoughts.
Although Predictit seems to have trump @ 2/1 for POTUS & 4/6 for the GOP. If you were going to arb Cruz, you'd probably arb Trump too.
Seriously, to campaign for Brexit, given the current variables in the world, and I'll try to be as eloquent as I can be, you have to be such fucking, deranged, ideological, half wit, mentally ill morons that should be prohibited from voting following a psychiatric assessment.
Brexiters- you may as well as start a campaign for slavery you stupid, backward looking, imbeciles.
And I have tried to be nice, and discuss the arguments with nuance and elegance.
Actually, you will find that the TB incidence in Italy is much less. Perhaps this is due to the fact that Italians farm and rear their cattle and slaughter them much more humanely, but pay more for their meat.
In the UK people want to go Tescos, and buy a pack of 2 sirloin steaks for a fiver, or less. With Brexit, and without any kind of regulation, we can drive our terrible, inhumane meat production even lower.
As said previously, Europe can be a much more civilising influence and teach us how to behave that bit better. Go DC. In the unlikeliest places, people find their heroes.....
Seriously, Nick. I am having a bit of love in with DC. I know he offered the vote through political expediency, and all that, but the Europe boil needed to be lanced for a generation. And out of mediocrity and compromise steps David Cameron who is going to achieve a lasting political legacy through facing down all these Eurosceptic morons.
Good on him. I can almost forgive him for the badgers, not quite, but almost.
PS I'm writing this from a freezing camp on the Laikipia plateau, Kenya. Today I saw my first ever cheetah in the wild. Three of them, playing, as the sun set. Magical.
Enviable.
Meanwhile, some of us here are warming to Cameron. :-)
You have Badgers in Italy infecting the cattle as well? Gosh never knew that.
What have badgers got to do with the method of slaughter in the UK which is very highly regulated.
I suppose we could slaughter the French way "them being being civilised In'all" and just cook them in the transport lorries they arrive in.
I think the Betfair market for the GOP nomination is being manipulated. Massively - there is someone with deep pockets holding Rubio up and taking an almighty red position on Ted Cruz that barely makes sense.
I wonder if it is anything to do with the RNC.
I said that this morning
Can you explain to me how that works?
Are there big Rubio backers in the UK who think spending Sterling propping up his price *over here* is a good use of their time and money?
A single trader lost between $4 and $7 million placing a flurry of bets on Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney on Intrade in the final two weeks of last year's election, according to a new research paper studying election betting patterns.
"Trader A," as the research paper dubs the trader, was responsible for about one-third of the money bet on Romney over the last two weeks — and about one-quarter over the entire cycle on Intrade.
The authors of the paper — economists Rajiv Sethi, of Barnard College and Columbia University; and David Rothschild, of Microsoft Research — speculate that Trader A's intent was to manipulate Romney's position.
So if it were a commons vote REMAIN would win easily.
More to the point, in a Commons vote after a Leave, the least-disruptive options (i.e. an EEA-style deal) would presumably win easily.
This is an aspect which the commentariat doesn't seem to have given any thought to, but it's potentially quite explosive if Leave wins on migration fears.
It's staring the commentariat in the face. For most voters a Remain or Leave vote is going to make no difference. Immigration policy will be almost entirely unaffected whichever side wins.
Nope.
If we Leave a party will be able to put in its manifesto that ALL visitors will be treated equally, regardless of nationality.
It is a fundamental change
Should we vote Leave, by the time of the next GE there would be a new agreement in place, negotiated by the Conservative government, that enshrines free movement of goods, services, people and capital. The Tory Leavers and Remainers who have a chance of leading the party do not disagree on this. And they will be doing the deal.
I have a working theory (if Leave wins) that Gove could take over, take us out, and then resign for a more popular figure to be elected in time for the 2020GE.
He is not about ego. He is about principles. And he's absolutely the man I'd want in the negotiating room.
He's not going to negotiate any meaningful changes to free movement. As Richard Tyndall and Richard Nabavi note if we leave the EU we're heading to the EEA.
Seriously, Nick. I am having a bit of love in with DC. I know he offered the vote through political expediency, and all that, but the Europe boil needed to be lanced for a generation. And out of mediocrity and compromise steps David Cameron who is going to achieve a lasting political legacy through facing down all these Eurosceptic morons.
Good on him. I can almost forgive him for the badgers, not quite, but almost.
PS I'm writing this from a freezing camp on the Laikipia plateau, Kenya. Today I saw my first ever cheetah in the wild. Three of them, playing, as the sun set. Magical.
Enviable.
Meanwhile, some of us here are warming to Cameron. :-)
He will - if Remain wins, as I expect it will - have achieved exactly the same political legacy in relation to the EU as Wilson. His negotiations will have achieved nothing to deal with the fundamental issue of what the relationship between a country in a minority and with several opt-outs should be vs the majority intent on a political/economic union. Because that has not been resolved in any real sense this issue will continue to be an issue in the medium and longer term for every British government, of whatever colour.
What he will have achieved brilliantly is winning the short term battle with his party and with UKIP and ending his career with another success. Dave will likely outsmart BoJo and get his mate George on the top team.
But this isn't about a lot of public school boys playing their games.
This is about us and our country and what its future should be and whether Europe as a whole, not just the EU, is on the right path. And all of that seems to have been forgotten a bit. Just like Labour are in love with an institution created in 1948 as if all wisdom about how a health service should be structured was known then and nothing since then could possibly change what was known then, so those in favour of the EU are in love with an institution created in 1958 in the same way. Both groups are exhibiting symptoms of the sunk cost fallacy.
No, that's a spectacularly week argument. I guess you prefer Westminster due to centuries of sunk costs.
What today really showed is the ineptness of Jeremy Corbyn.
Someone like Blair, Smith, Callaghan, and Foot would have torn Cameron a new one over the Tory splits.
Well Corbyn is rubbish, but he's not facing the 22.
Dave will be fine. The malcontented were like this in the last parliament, predicting Dave would face a no confidence vote and lose.
Never happened.
If the Leavers want Tories to start flocking back to Remain, then they should keep on talking about Leave = toppling of Cameron
The thing is, things can run out of control, even if no one intended them to do so at the outset. I'm pretty sure David Cameron never anticipated that his negotiations with the EU would be as badly received by centrist Conservatives as has been the case. So, in order to win, he has to be more ruthless than he thought he would have to be. In turn, that can lead people to retaliate, in ways that they hadn't anticipated doing.
Realistic and accurate. A more experienced view than TSE's.
But, I profoundly struggle with the Brexit concept. I can kind of understand (not agree with) right wing and ideological concepts- lower taxation, benefit cuts, privatisation etc..; the EU debate, I just don't get it.
The world is fundamentally changing exponentially. As far as I am aware we need to work collectively, and in the first instance collaborate with those nations they we share some basic stuff with. I cannot for the life of me understand how everyone just doesn't get this fundamental fact.
Seriously, to campaign for Brexit, given the current variables in the world, and I'll try to be as eloquent as I can be, you have to be such fucking, deranged, ideological, half wit, mentally ill morons that should be prohibited from voting following a psychiatric assessment.
Brexiters- you may as well as start a campaign for slavery you stupid, backward looking, imbeciles.
And I have tried to be nice, and discuss the arguments with nuance and elegance.
Oops. Tyson needs his happy pills again.
I think you, Roger and the Labour benches loudly supporting Cameron for Remain is as much of a problem for him as BOO'ers saying they want his head if he loses isn't in repelling loyal Tories from Leave.
But, I profoundly struggle with the Brexit concept. I can kind of understand (not agree with) right wing and ideological concepts- lower taxation, benefit cuts, privatisation etc..; the EU debate, I just don't get it.
The world is fundamentally changing exponentially. As far as I am aware we need to work collectively, and in the first instance collaborate with those nations they we share some basic stuff with. I cannot for the life of me understand how everyone just doesn't get this fundamental fact.
Seriously, to campaign for Brexit, given the current variables in the world, and I'll try to be as eloquent as I can be, you have to be such fucking, deranged, ideological, half wit, mentally ill morons that should be prohibited from voting following a psychiatric assessment.
Brexiters- you may as well as start a campaign for slavery you stupid, backward looking, imbeciles.
And I have tried to be nice, and discuss the arguments with nuance and elegance.
Oops. Tyson needs his happy pills again.
It's costs us too fucking much and most of the others not enough.....
But, I profoundly struggle with the Brexit concept. I can kind of understand (not agree with) right wing and ideological concepts- lower taxation, benefit cuts, privatisation etc..; the EU debate, I just don't get it.
The world is fundamentally changing exponentially. As far as I am aware we need to work collectively, and in the first instance collaborate with those nations they we share some basic stuff with. I cannot for the life of me understand how everyone just doesn't get this fundamental fact.
Seriously, to campaign for Brexit, given the current variables in the world, and I'll try to be as eloquent as I can be, you have to be such fucking, deranged, ideological, half wit, mentally ill morons that should be prohibited from voting following a psychiatric assessment.
Brexiters- you may as well as start a campaign for slavery you stupid, backward looking, imbeciles.
And I have tried to be nice, and discuss the arguments with nuance and elegance.
Oops. Tyson needs his happy pills again.
Urm, because Europe is in cultural and political decline, and seem to want to only hasten it?
As far as I am concerned animal welfare and rearing and butchering mammals for food are slightly incompatible.
But Italian meat production is better than the UK. Italians just wouldn't buy cheaply produced meat.. They would think there is something wrong with the meat, and they would also think the animal has been badly treated to produce prices this low.
Actually, you will find that the TB incidence in Italy is much less. Perhaps this is due to the fact that Italians farm and rear their cattle and slaughter them much more humanely, but pay more for their meat.
In the UK people want to go Tescos, and buy a pack of 2 sirloin steaks for a fiver, or less. With Brexit, and without any kind of regulation, we can drive our terrible, inhumane meat production even lower.
As said previously, Europe can be a much more civilising influence and teach us how to behave that bit better. Go DC. In the unlikeliest places, people find their heroes.....
And once again you make the perhaps purposeful error of conflating Europe and the EU. They are not the same thing at all.
And the UK animal welfare standards are better than many other parts of the EU. It is only your own bigotry that stops you seeing that.
Absolutely pathetic stance from my local Tory MP on the EU referendum - see the bottom of the article - talk about an on the fence position of the worst kind!
It's a Commission proposal. The interior ministers can kick it out and probably will. If the last six months is anything to go by, the Commission's powers to regulate borders are, for practical purposes, non-existent.
Still, it's the Telegraph so pretty much what you'd expect.
From the Torygraph too. There is an assumption the elderly (who turn out more) are going to turn out heavily for Out, but I'm less convinced. Those who are naturally conservative and skeptical about change may be Euroskeptic as a result but may also be put off actually Leaving for the exact same reason.
But, I profoundly struggle with the Brexit concept. I can kind of understand (not agree with) right wing and ideological concepts- lower taxation, benefit cuts, privatisation etc..; the EU debate, I just don't get it.
The world is fundamentally changing exponentially. As far as I am aware we need to work collectively, and in the first instance collaborate with those nations they we share some basic stuff with. I cannot for the life of me understand how everyone just doesn't get this fundamental fact.
Seriously, to campaign for Brexit, given the current variables in the world, and I'll try to be as eloquent as I can be, you have to be such fucking, deranged, ideological, half wit, mentally ill morons that should be prohibited from voting following a psychiatric assessment.
Brexiters- you may as well as start a campaign for slavery you stupid, backward looking, imbeciles.
And I have tried to be nice, and discuss the arguments with nuance and elegance.
Oops. Tyson needs his happy pills again.
Collaboration is good. To collaborate does not mean we have to be in a political and economic union.
You are assuming that collaboration means union of some kind and means, as far as Europe is concerned, a union of a very specific type conceived in the aftermath of a world war and influenced by the cultures (social/political/historical) of very different times.
It is precisely because the world is changing that we need to be flexible and prepared to adjust our thinking and our approach.
So if it were a commons vote REMAIN would win easily.
More to the point, in a Commons vote after a Leave, the least-disruptive options (i.e. an EEA-style deal) would presumably win easily.
This is an aspect which the commentariat doesn't seem to have given any thought to, but it's potentially quite explosive if Leave wins on migration fears.
It's staring the commentariat in the face. For most voters a Remain or Leave vote is going to make no difference. Immigration policy will be almost entirely unaffected whichever side wins.
Nope.
If we Leave a party will be able to put in its manifesto that ALL visitors will be treated equally, regardless of nationality.
It is a fundamental change
Should we vote Leave, by the time of the next GE there would be a new agreement in place, negotiated by the Conservative government, that enshrines free movement of goods, services, people and capital. The Tory Leavers and Remainers who have a chance of leading the party do not disagree on this. And they will be doing the deal.
I have a working theory (if Leave wins) that Gove could take over, take us out, and then resign for a more popular figure to be elected in time for the 2020GE.
He is not about ego. He is about principles. And he's absolutely the man I'd want in the negotiating room.
He's not going to negotiate any meaningful changes to free movement. As Richard Tyndall and Richard Nabavi note if we leave the EU we're heading to the EEA.
So you assert. I think limitations on free movement would have to be on the table, along the lines David Goodhart suggested.
From Sky... "house building shares were lower, with Berkeley Group down 5% and Barratt Developments off by 4%. A note last month from analysts at Credit Suisse suggested a fall in immigration as a result of Brexit could cut housing demand."
From the Torygraph too. There is an assumption the elderly (who turn out more) are going to turn out heavily for Out, but I'm less convinced. Those who are naturally conservative and skeptical about change may be Euroskeptic as a result but may also be put off actually Leaving for the exact same reason.
Wait until Dave deploys the Brexit = Danger to your pensions line.
Pinning the blame for the downward spiral of Tory interactions in this campaign firmly at Cameron's door, not good for him.
It's all moot to me, as the politeness while no doubt nice for Tory nerves, was a paper thin covering of a lot of implicitly very damaging criticism on both sides already so more open hostility makes not much difference, but already the narrative is emerging, clearly. Cameron got a crap deal, he at best believes in that crap deal and at worst is lying about it, and any ructions in Tory ranks is his fault (which is handy when paired with Lord Hague's plea, as they can use Cameron's scalp as a way to prevent the split).
I think the Betfair market for the GOP nomination is being manipulated. Massively - there is someone with deep pockets holding Rubio up and taking an almighty red position on Ted Cruz that barely makes sense.
I wonder if it is anything to do with the RNC.
I said that this morning
Can you explain to me how that works?
Are there big Rubio backers in the UK who think spending Sterling propping up his price *over here* is a good use of their time and money?
A single trader lost between $4 and $7 million placing a flurry of bets on Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney on Intrade in the final two weeks of last year's election, according to a new research paper studying election betting patterns.
"Trader A," as the research paper dubs the trader, was responsible for about one-third of the money bet on Romney over the last two weeks — and about one-quarter over the entire cycle on Intrade.
The authors of the paper — economists Rajiv Sethi, of Barnard College and Columbia University; and David Rothschild, of Microsoft Research — speculate that Trader A's intent was to manipulate Romney's position.
From the Torygraph too. There is an assumption the elderly (who turn out more) are going to turn out heavily for Out, but I'm less convinced. Those who are naturally conservative and skeptical about change may be Euroskeptic as a result but may also be put off actually Leaving for the exact same reason.
No, older voters are thoroughly disillusioned by the EU (and they were the youngsters who voted for it in1975).
But, I profoundly struggle with the Brexit concept. I can kind of understand (not agree with) right wing and ideological concepts- lower taxation, benefit cuts, privatisation etc..; the EU debate, I just don't get it.
The world is fundamentally changing exponentially. As far as I am aware we need to work collectively, and in the first instance collaborate with those nations they we share some basic stuff with. I cannot for the life of me understand how everyone just doesn't get this fundamental fact.
Seriously, to campaign for Brexit, given the current variables in the world, and I'll try to be as eloquent as I can be, you have to be such fucking, deranged, ideological, half wit, mentally ill morons that should be prohibited from voting following a psychiatric assessment.
Brexiters- you may as well as start a campaign for slavery you stupid, backward looking, imbeciles.
And I have tried to be nice, and discuss the arguments with nuance and elegance.
Oops. Tyson needs his happy pills again.
Collaboration is good. To collaborate does not mean we have to be in a political and economic union.
You are assuming that collaboration means union of some kind and means, as far as Europe is concerned, a union of a very specific type conceived in the aftermath of a world war and influenced by the cultures (social/political/historical) of very different times.
It is precisely because the world is changing that we need to be flexible and prepared to adjust our thinking and our approach.
At least Westminster is modern, immune from anachronisms and fast too adapt.
What today really showed is the ineptness of Jeremy Corbyn.
Someone like Blair, Smith, Callaghan, and Foot would have torn Cameron a new one over the Tory splits.
Well Corbyn is rubbish, but he's not facing the 22.
Dave will be fine. The malcontented were like this in the last parliament, predicting Dave would face a no confidence vote and lose.
Never happened.
If the Leavers want Tories to start flocking back to Remain, then they should keep on talking about Leave = toppling of Cameron
The thing is, things can run out of control, even if no one intended them to do so at the outset. I'm pretty sure David Cameron never anticipated that his negotiations with the EU would be as badly received by centrist Conservatives as has been the case. So, in order to win, he has to be more ruthless than he thought he would have to be. In turn, that can lead people to retaliate, in ways that they hadn't anticipated doing.
140 MPs is well over and above the usual suspects; it's cutting into the bone and a good chunk of erstwhile Cameron loyalists.
Leave will have a majority of the Conservative backbenches.
I think the Betfair market for the GOP nomination is being manipulated. Massively - there is someone with deep pockets holding Rubio up and taking an almighty red position on Ted Cruz that barely makes sense.
I wonder if it is anything to do with the RNC.
I said that this morning
Can you explain to me how that works?
Are there big Rubio backers in the UK who think spending Sterling propping up his price *over here* is a good use of their time and money?
A single trader lost between $4 and $7 million placing a flurry of bets on Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney on Intrade in the final two weeks of last year's election, according to a new research paper studying election betting patterns.
"Trader A," as the research paper dubs the trader, was responsible for about one-third of the money bet on Romney over the last two weeks — and about one-quarter over the entire cycle on Intrade.
The authors of the paper — economists Rajiv Sethi, of Barnard College and Columbia University; and David Rothschild, of Microsoft Research — speculate that Trader A's intent was to manipulate Romney's position.
There would be a reduction in the numbers who could exercise their rights under free movement if Leave were to win.
Europeans would then return to being subject to the same visa requirements as non-EU citizens, and the application of 'no recourse to public funds' restrictions would become more prevalent for EU workers here on visas.
Presumably Britons would need a visa to travel to the Continent too then?
Permission to live in Spain? Use of Spanish health services? And that’s just Spain.
I've never found the concept of Spain imposing immigration controls on British citizens to be intolerable.
You don't want to sell things to Spain? But this is becoming tiresome. Of course you want to sell to Spain and various other countries as well which is why the UK will remain a part of the EU Single Market and the free movement of labour and the brexit argument is a load of baloney. Nothing much is going to change.
Seriously, to campaign for Brexit, given the current variables in the world, and I'll try to be as eloquent as I can be, you have to be such fucking, deranged, ideological, half wit, mentally ill morons that should be prohibited from voting following a psychiatric assessment.
Brexiters- you may as well as start a campaign for slavery you stupid, backward looking, imbeciles.
And I have tried to be nice, and discuss the arguments with nuance and elegance.
From the Torygraph too. There is an assumption the elderly (who turn out more) are going to turn out heavily for Out, but I'm less convinced. Those who are naturally conservative and skeptical about change may be Euroskeptic as a result but may also be put off actually Leaving for the exact same reason.
No, older voters are thoroughly disillusioned by the EU (and they were the youngsters who voted for it in1975).
There is one thing being disillusioned (and grumbling), there's another thing altogether actually going to the polling booth and voting for Leave.
But, I profoundly struggle with the Brexit concept. I can kind of understand (not agree with) right wing and ideological concepts- lower taxation, benefit cuts, privatisation etc..; the EU debate, I just don't get it.
The world is fundamentally changing exponentially. As far as I am aware we need to work collectively, and in the first instance collaborate with those nations they we share some basic stuff with. I cannot for the life of me understand how everyone just doesn't get this fundamental fact.
From my point if view it is simple. There are two basic strands - the practical and the philosophical.
The philosophical one which I share with some on here - notably Robert Smithsonian - is a basic Libertarian position. Government should be as limited and as close to the people as possible and the state should be as small as practical. Extremely limited in its function and reach. The EU fails utterly on this basic concept.
The second, practical, objection is simply that the EU does not and cannot work. Trying to impose a unified set of all encompassing rules on a continent as wonderfully diverse as Europe is simply not practical. And the upshot of the failure to be able to do that when it gas been attempted is resentment, disorder, economic and social strife and a situation that is far worse than if no attempt had been made in the first place.
The EU does not work. Not because of corruption or lack of ability or vision by its architects and functionaries, but because it can never work. It is a failed experiment which should be allowed to die.
As far as I am concerned animal welfare and rearing and butchering mammals for food are slightly incompatible.
But Italian meat production is better than the UK. Italians just wouldn't buy cheaply produced meat.. They would think there is something wrong with the meat, and they would also think the animal has been badly treated to produce prices this low.
Actually, you will find that the TB incidence in Italy is much less. Perhaps this is due to the fact that Italians farm and rear their cattle and slaughter them much more humanely, but pay more for their meat.
In the UK people want to go Tescos, and buy a pack of 2 sirloin steaks for a fiver, or less. With Brexit, and without any kind of regulation, we can drive our terrible, inhumane meat production even lower.
As said previously, Europe can be a much more civilising influence and teach us how to behave that bit better. Go DC. In the unlikeliest places, people find their heroes.....
And once again you make the perhaps purposeful error of conflating Europe and the EU. They are not the same thing at all.
And the UK animal welfare standards are better than many other parts of the EU. It is only your own bigotry that stops you seeing that.
You will like this article.it is from 2010 but civilised Italy gets a special mention.
Seriously, to campaign for Brexit, given the current variables in the world, and I'll try to be as eloquent as I can be, you have to be such fucking, deranged, ideological, half wit, mentally ill morons that should be prohibited from voting following a psychiatric assessment.
Brexiters- you may as well as start a campaign for slavery you stupid, backward looking, imbeciles.
And I have tried to be nice, and discuss the arguments with nuance and elegance.
What today really showed is the ineptness of Jeremy Corbyn.
Someone like Blair, Smith, Callaghan, and Foot would have torn Cameron a new one over the Tory splits.
Well Corbyn is rubbish, but he's not facing the 22.
Dave will be fine. The malcontented were like this in the last parliament, predicting Dave would face a no confidence vote and lose.
Never happened.
If the Leavers want Tories to start flocking back to Remain, then they should keep on talking about Leave = toppling of Cameron
The thing is, things can run out of control, even if no one intended them to do so at the outset. I'm pretty sure David Cameron never anticipated that his negotiations with the EU would be as badly received by centrist Conservatives as has been the case. So, in order to win, he has to be more ruthless than he thought he would have to be. In turn, that can lead people to retaliate, in ways that they hadn't anticipated doing.
140 MPs is well over and above the usual suspects; it's cutting into the bone and a good chunk of erstwhile Cameron loyalists.
Leave will have a majority of the Conservative backbenches.
Would they be less bold I wonder if they felt less certain the Tories will win re-election even if the scale of the party split is such that they are, inadvertently or otherwise, crippling Cameron as PM?
From the Torygraph too. There is an assumption the elderly (who turn out more) are going to turn out heavily for Out, but I'm less convinced. Those who are naturally conservative and skeptical about change may be Euroskeptic as a result but may also be put off actually Leaving for the exact same reason.
Wait until Dave deploys the Brexit = Danger to your pensions line.
Exactly. Complaining and being grumpy is entirely different to opting for major change.
Seriously, to campaign for Brexit, given the current variables in the world, and I'll try to be as eloquent as I can be, you have to be such fucking, deranged, ideological, half wit, mentally ill morons that should be prohibited from voting following a psychiatric assessment.
Brexiters- you may as well as start a campaign for slavery you stupid, backward looking, imbeciles.
And I have tried to be nice, and discuss the arguments with nuance and elegance.
Seriously, to campaign for Brexit, given the current variables in the world, and I'll try to be as eloquent as I can be, you have to be such fucking, deranged, ideological, half wit, mentally ill morons that should be prohibited from voting following a psychiatric assessment.
Brexiters- you may as well as start a campaign for slavery you stupid, backward looking, imbeciles.
And I have tried to be nice, and discuss the arguments with nuance and elegance.
There would be a reduction in the numbers who could exercise their rights under free movement if Leave were to win.
Europeans would then return to being subject to the same visa requirements as non-EU citizens, and the application of 'no recourse to public funds' restrictions would become more prevalent for EU workers here on visas.
Presumably Britons would need a visa to travel to the Continent too then?
Permission to live in Spain? Use of Spanish health services? And that’s just Spain.
I've never found the concept of Spain imposing immigration controls on British citizens to be intolerable.
You don't want to sell things to Spain? But this is becoming tiresome. Of course you want to sell to Spain and various other countries as well which is why the UK will remain a part of the EU Single Market and the free movement of labour and the brexit argument is a load of baloney. Nothing much is going to change.
Something of a leap in logic.
We sell to many places that have immigration controls.
It's a Commission proposal. The interior ministers can kick it out and probably will. If the last six months is anything to go by, the Commission's powers to regulate borders are, for practical purposes, non-existent.
Still, it's the Telegraph so pretty much what you'd expect.
Yes - that may be the end result. But we have a serious terrorist threat now. We can't wait for faffing around from some Commission people. I want and I expect some in France also want our governments to be taking steps right now, immediately after November 13th, to make these checks. And yet we can't because..... well, because what..... because we have to collaborate with other countries and the Commission has to have its say and this, that and the other.
And then Cameron tells us that the EU keeps us safe. And without it we'll be at risk.
And if the Commission can't regulate the EU's borders how, exactly, is it keeping anyone safe?
Enough with these meretricious arguments. Really enough.
There would be a reduction in the numbers who could exercise their rights under free movement if Leave were to win.
Europeans would then return to being subject to the same visa requirements as non-EU citizens, and the application of 'no recourse to public funds' restrictions would become more prevalent for EU workers here on visas.
Presumably Britons would need a visa to travel to the Continent too then?
Permission to live in Spain? Use of Spanish health services? And that’s just Spain.
I've never found the concept of Spain imposing immigration controls on British citizens to be intolerable.
You don't want to sell things to Spain? But this is becoming tiresome. Of course you want to sell to Spain and various other countries as well which is why the UK will remain a part of the EU Single Market and the free movement of labour and the brexit argument is a load of baloney. Nothing much is going to change.
Precisely. A lot of Leavers are going to be very cross when they find out they've essentially voted for more of the same.
This is where I have my doubts about Johnson,he isn't up for the fight,Flashman made him look not PM material today.
So after today in the commons,if I was him,my pay back would to put my heart and soul into the campaign,get your self out there with well informed information on leaving the EU.
Take it to the country man and put the shitters on the establishment
But, I profoundly struggle with the Brexit concept. I can kind of understand (not agree with) right wing and ideological concepts- lower taxation, benefit cuts, privatisation etc..; the EU debate, I just don't get it.
The world is fundamentally changing exponentially. As far as I am aware we need to work collectively, and in the first instance collaborate with those nations they we share some basic stuff with. I cannot for the life of me understand how everyone just doesn't get this fundamental fact.
From my point if view it is simple. There are two basic strands - the practical and the philosophical.
The philosophical one which I share with some on here - notably Robert Smithsonian - is a basic Libertarian position. Government should be as limited and as close to the people as possible and the state should be as small as practical. Extremely limited in its function and reach. The EU fails utterly on this basic concept.
The second, practical, objection is simply that the EU does not and cannot work. Trying to impose a unified set of all encompassing rules on a continent as wonderfully diverse as Europe is simply not practical. And the upshot of the failure to be able to do that when it gad been attempted is resentment, disorder, economic and social strife and a situation that is far worse than if no attempt had been made in the first place.
The EU does not work. Not because of corruption or lack of ability or vision by its architects and functionaries, but because it can never work. It is a failed experiment which should be allowed to die.
I will have to hold onto those points as we get closer to the day and my nerves of jelly begin to quaver.
I think the Betfair market for the GOP nomination is being manipulated. Massively - there is someone with deep pockets holding Rubio up and taking an almighty red position on Ted Cruz that barely makes sense.
I wonder if it is anything to do with the RNC.
I said that this morning
Can you explain to me how that works?
Are there big Rubio backers in the UK who think spending Sterling propping up his price *over here* is a good use of their time and money?
A single trader lost between $4 and $7 million placing a flurry of bets on Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney on Intrade in the final two weeks of last year's election, according to a new research paper studying election betting patterns.
"Trader A," as the research paper dubs the trader, was responsible for about one-third of the money bet on Romney over the last two weeks — and about one-quarter over the entire cycle on Intrade.
The authors of the paper — economists Rajiv Sethi, of Barnard College and Columbia University; and David Rothschild, of Microsoft Research — speculate that Trader A's intent was to manipulate Romney's position.
Fireworks today on GBP as I thought there would be last night - we cracked below the previous low this year of 1.4081 down at 1.4058 earlier today, waiting for a real test of the key support level of 1.39 now.
John Humpries on the Today program was his usual self - "200 hours to read to understand the debate on the EU".....and then a feature on what you could do with 200 hours in your life........with the all too obvious inference that it isn't worth reading the nitty gritty of EU legislation, articles and treaties - what a disgraceful way to talk down to the listener as though they'd be a nerd or a wonk to do their own research and find out what an insidious organisation the EU really is.
From the Torygraph too. There is an assumption the elderly (who turn out more) are going to turn out heavily for Out, but I'm less convinced. Those who are naturally conservative and skeptical about change may be Euroskeptic as a result but may also be put off actually Leaving for the exact same reason.
No, older voters are thoroughly disillusioned by the EU (and they were the youngsters who voted for it in1975).
Older voters and better off, well educated voters are the mainstays of the electoral system and are likely to swing different ways on 23rd June.
As far as I am concerned animal welfare and rearing and butchering mammals for food are slightly incompatible.
But Italian meat production is better than the UK. Italians just wouldn't buy cheaply produced meat.. They would think there is something wrong with the meat, and they would also think the animal has been badly treated to produce prices this low.
Actually, you will find that the TB incidence in Italy is much less. Perhaps this is due to the fact that Italians farm and rear their cattle and slaughter them much more humanely, but pay more for their meat.
In the UK people want to go Tescos, and buy a pack of 2 sirloin steaks for a fiver, or less. With Brexit, and without any kind of regulation, we can drive our terrible, inhumane meat production even lower.
As said previously, Europe can be a much more civilising influence and teach us how to behave that bit better. Go DC. In the unlikeliest places, people find their heroes.....
And once again you make the perhaps purposeful error of conflating Europe and the EU. They are not the same thing at all.
And the UK animal welfare standards are better than many other parts of the EU. It is only your own bigotry that stops you seeing that.
You will like this article.it is from 2010 but civilised Italy gets a special mention.
From the Torygraph too. There is an assumption the elderly (who turn out more) are going to turn out heavily for Out, but I'm less convinced. Those who are naturally conservative and skeptical about change may be Euroskeptic as a result but may also be put off actually Leaving for the exact same reason.
Wait until Dave deploys the Brexit = Danger to your pensions line.
Exactly. Complaining and being grumpy is entirely different to opting for major change.
Given the pension changes supposedly going to be announced in the forthcoming budget I doubt anyone will want to mention pensions...
But, I profoundly struggle with the Brexit concept. I can kind of understand (not agree with) right wing and ideological concepts- lower taxation, benefit cuts, privatisation etc..; the EU debate, I just don't get it.
The world is fundamentally changing exponentially. As far as I am aware we need to work collectively, and in the first instance collaborate with those nations they we share some basic stuff with. I cannot for the life of me understand how everyone just doesn't get this fundamental fact.
From my point if view it is simple. There are two basic strands - the practical and the philosophical.
The philosophical one which I share with some on here - notably Robert Smithsonian - is a basic Libertarian position. Government should be as limited and as close to the people as possible and the state should be as small as practical. Extremely limited in its function and reach. The EU fails utterly on this basic concept.
The second, practical, objection is simply that the EU does not and cannot work. Trying to impose a unified set of all encompassing rules on a continent as wonderfully diverse as Europe is simply not practical. And the upshot of the failure to be able to do that when it gas been attempted is resentment, disorder, economic and social strife and a situation that is far worse than if no attempt had been made in the first place.
The EU does not work. Not because of corruption or lack of ability or vision by its architects and functionaries, but because it can never work. It is a failed experiment which should be allowed to die.
Well put Richard - my position as a libertarian too. If our former MP from Broxtowe was on, I'd love to peruse his admiration of Switzerland as the ideal case study of a country nearest to the true ideal of a democracy (although regrettably it too has been moving away from this and towards a republic in the traditional sense of the word) and not in the EU, and freer and more prosperous as a result.
As far as I am concerned animal welfare and rearing and butchering mammals for food are slightly incompatible.
But Italian meat production is better than the UK. Italians just wouldn't buy cheaply produced meat.. They would think there is something wrong with the meat, and they would also think the animal has been badly treated to produce prices this low.
Actually, you will find that the TB incidence in Italy is much less. Perhaps this is due to the fact that Italians farm and rear their cattle and slaughter them much more humanely, but pay more for their meat.
In the UK people want to go Tescos, and buy a pack of 2 sirloin steaks for a fiver, or less. With Brexit, and without any kind of regulation, we can drive our terrible, inhumane meat production even lower.
As said previously, Europe can be a much more civilising influence and teach us how to behave that bit better. Go DC. In the unlikeliest places, people find their heroes.....
And once again you make the perhaps purposeful error of conflating Europe and the EU. They are not the same thing at all.
And the UK animal welfare standards are better than many other parts of the EU. It is only your own bigotry that stops you seeing that.
Tyson
I do fear that you're mistaking your circle of rich, lefty Tuscan friends for Italians as a whole.
I recall you making the same mistake re your circle of rich, lefty North Oxford friends and British people as a whole.
From the Torygraph too. There is an assumption the elderly (who turn out more) are going to turn out heavily for Out, but I'm less convinced. Those who are naturally conservative and skeptical about change may be Euroskeptic as a result but may also be put off actually Leaving for the exact same reason.
No, older voters are thoroughly disillusioned by the EU (and they were the youngsters who voted for it in1975).
There is one thing being disillusioned (and grumbling), there's another thing altogether actually going to the polling booth and voting for Leave.
I think there's not much doubt how older voters will vote.
The question is whether they get outnumbered by younger ones.
But, I profoundly struggle with the Brexit concept. I can kind of understand (not agree with) right wing and ideological concepts- lower taxation, benefit cuts, privatisation etc..; the EU debate, I just don't get it.
The world is fundamentally changing exponentially. As far as I am aware we need to work collectively, and in the first instance collaborate with those nations they we share some basic stuff with. I cannot for the life of me understand how everyone just doesn't get this fundamental fact.
Seriously, to campaign for Brexit, given the current variables in the world, and I'll try to be as eloquent as I can be, you have to be such fucking, deranged, ideological, half wit, mentally ill morons that should be prohibited from voting following a psychiatric assessment.
Brexiters- you may as well as start a campaign for slavery you stupid, backward looking, imbeciles.
And I have tried to be nice, and discuss the arguments with nuance and elegance.
Oops. Tyson needs his happy pills again.
Collaboration is good. To collaborate does not mean we have to be in a political and economic union.
You are assuming that collaboration means union of some kind and means, as far as Europe is concerned, a union of a very specific type conceived in the aftermath of a world war and influenced by the cultures (social/political/historical) of very different times.
It is precisely because the world is changing that we need to be flexible and prepared to adjust our thinking and our approach.
At least Westminster is modern, immune from anachronisms and fast too adapt.
We can vote the buggers out. And its ours. It reflects our history. I can't vote out any of the politicians in 18 Eurozone countries who can make laws affecting me in my country without any of my elected representatives having a say.
Our old, anachronistic and often slow to adapt Parliament has been pretty effective at overseeing a small island in the North Sea becoming a pretty important world power and trading nation and the retreat from Empire over hundreds of years, while still developing into a free liberal democracy and without falling prey to either fascism, Nazism or communism.
That's a pretty good record. Shall we do a comparison with some of the equivalent legislative chambers on the Continent?
What today really showed is the ineptness of Jeremy Corbyn.
Someone like Blair, Smith, Callaghan, and Foot would have torn Cameron a new one over the Tory splits.
Well Corbyn is rubbish, but he's not facing the 22.
Dave will be fine. The malcontented were like this in the last parliament, predicting Dave would face a no confidence vote and lose.
Never happened.
If the Leavers want Tories to start flocking back to Remain, then they should keep on talking about Leave = toppling of Cameron
The thing is, things can run out of control, even if no one intended them to do so at the outset. I'm pretty sure David Cameron never anticipated that his negotiations with the EU would be as badly received by centrist Conservatives as has been the case. So, in order to win, he has to be more ruthless than he thought he would have to be. In turn, that can lead people to retaliate, in ways that they hadn't anticipated doing.
140 MPs is well over and above the usual suspects; it's cutting into the bone and a good chunk of erstwhile Cameron loyalists.
Leave will have a majority of the Conservative backbenches.
Would they be less bold I wonder if they felt less certain the Tories will win re-election even if the scale of the party split is such that they are, inadvertently or otherwise, crippling Cameron as PM?
Personally? I think there's something else going on here.
I think the thinking was that the election of Corbyn was a licence for the Tory party to move to the Left, win the "centre ground" and crown Osborne.
I think there's a large chunk of the backbenches who really don't like that.
But, I profoundly struggle with the Brexit concept. I can kind of understand (not agree with) right wing and ideological concepts- lower taxation, benefit cuts, privatisation etc..; the EU debate, I just don't get it.
The world is fundamentally changing exponentially. As far as I am aware we need to work collectively, and in the first instance collaborate with those nations they we share some basic stuff with. I cannot for the life of me understand how everyone just doesn't get this fundamental fact.
Seriously, to campaign for Brexit, given the current variables in the world, and I'll try to be as eloquent as I can be, you have to be such fucking, deranged, ideological, half wit, mentally ill morons that should be prohibited from voting following a psychiatric assessment.
Brexiters- you may as well as start a campaign for slavery you stupid, backward looking, imbeciles.
And I have tried to be nice, and discuss the arguments with nuance and elegance.
Oops. Tyson needs his happy pills again.
If collaborating more and sharing our sovereignty is a simple good in and of itself why don't we merge with other nations too? How about we join as the 51st state of the USA. We share a lot of basic stuff like a language and history with them so why not share their policies and constitution too? Maybe we could have President Trump as our leader next year. A few years ago we could have had President Bush.
Surely if collaboration is a good in and of itself then that's a great idea for you.
I think the Betfair market for the GOP nomination is being manipulated. Massively - there is someone with deep pockets holding Rubio up and taking an almighty red position on Ted Cruz that barely makes sense.
I wonder if it is anything to do with the RNC.
You must be right I think. Trump is 90% certain to be the candidate, Rubio 10%.
It's probably a second order effect from Predictit actually - thats the "prediction" (Not betting !) market the US uses, someone will most likely be arbing it off against Betfair.
Exactly my thoughts.
Although Predictit seems to have trump @ 2/1 for POTUS & 4/6 for the GOP. If you were going to arb Cruz, you'd probably arb Trump too.
Edit - I'm probably wrong.
Just remembered Predictit has a contract limit per user for each market. Basically, from what I can tell, arbing by buying on Predictit & selling on Betfair becomes less profitable as the odds of a candidate winning increases. The ability to scale reduces - as does the impact of the liquidity on the betfair price.
If, theoretically, you can buy cruz.gop for as much as possible ($850 I think?) @ 1c (or 1%) - your betfair lay would be ~£$2500 @ 33/1 or whatever
That's quite a big amount when it shows up in Cruz's lay box.
Selling trump.potus @30c for $850 would only leave you with a relatively small amount to back on betfair. It wouldn't impact the price much.
I'm not sure precisely how predictit works - and I may have got the calculation slightly wrong here. Does anyone (lurkers included) have any experience with predicit?
From the Torygraph too. There is an assumption the elderly (who turn out more) are going to turn out heavily for Out, but I'm less convinced. Those who are naturally conservative and skeptical about change may be Euroskeptic as a result but may also be put off actually Leaving for the exact same reason.
Wait until Dave deploys the Brexit = Danger to your pensions line.
As far as I am concerned animal welfare and rearing and butchering mammals for food are slightly incompatible.
But Italian meat production is better than the UK. Italians just wouldn't buy cheaply produced meat.. They would think there is something wrong with the meat, and they would also think the animal has been badly treated to produce prices this low.
Actually, you will find that the TB incidence in Italy is much less. Perhaps this is due to the fact that Italians farm and rear their cattle and slaughter them much more humanely, but pay more for their meat.
In the UK people want to go Tescos, and buy a pack of 2 sirloin steaks for a fiver, or less. With Brexit, and without any kind of regulation, we can drive our terrible, inhumane meat production even lower.
As said previously, Europe can be a much more civilising influence and teach us how to behave that bit better. Go DC. In the unlikeliest places, people find their heroes.....
And once again you make the perhaps purposeful error of conflating Europe and the EU. They are not the same thing at all.
And the UK animal welfare standards are better than many other parts of the EU. It is only your own bigotry that stops you seeing that.
You will like this article.it is from 2010 but civilised Italy gets a special mention.
You should not be depressed but campaign about this it as I know you do with great passion.
I was merely making a gentle point that even your chosen place in Europe has problems as do many others.
On the whole the UK is so highly regulated and monitored it is rare these days but incidents do happen once in a while. However Your portrayal of the U.K. was to all intents quite unfair and most inaccurate.
I think the Betfair market for the GOP nomination is being manipulated. Massively - there is someone with deep pockets holding Rubio up and taking an almighty red position on Ted Cruz that barely makes sense.
I wonder if it is anything to do with the RNC.
You must be right I think. Trump is 90% certain to be the candidate, Rubio 10%.
It's probably a second order effect from Predictit actually - thats the "prediction" (Not betting !) market the US uses, someone will most likely be arbing it off against Betfair.
Exactly my thoughts.
Although Predictit seems to have trump @ 2/1 for POTUS & 4/6 for the GOP. If you were going to arb Cruz, you'd probably arb Trump too.
Just remembered Predictit has a contract limit per user for each market. Basically, from what I can tell, arbing by buying on Predictit & selling on Betfair becomes less profitable as the odds of a candidate winning increases.
If, theoretically, you can buy cruz.gop for as much as possible ($850 I think?) @ 1c (or 1%) - your betfair lay would be ~£$2500 @ 33/1 or whatever
That's quite a big amount when it shows up in Cruz's lay box.
Selling trump.potus @30c for $850 would only leave you with ~$1200 to back on betfair
Which isn't going to have much of an impact on trump's liquidity at all.
I'm not sure precisely how predictit works - and I may have got the calculation slightly wrong here. Does anyone (lurkers included) have any experience with predicit?
As far as I am concerned animal welfare and rearing and butchering mammals for food are slightly incompatible.
But Italian meat production is better than the UK. Italians just wouldn't buy cheaply produced meat.. They would think there is something wrong with the meat, and they would also think the animal has been badly treated to produce prices this low.
Actually, you will find that the TB incidence in Italy is much less. Perhaps this is due to the fact that Italians farm and rear their cattle and slaughter them much more humanely, but pay more for their meat.
In the UK people want to go Tescos, and buy a pack of 2 sirloin steaks for a fiver, or less. With Brexit, and without any kind of regulation, we can drive our terrible, inhumane meat production even lower.
As said previously, Europe can be a much more civilising influence and teach us how to behave that bit better. Go DC. In the unlikeliest places, people find their heroes.....
And once again you make the perhaps purposeful error of conflating Europe and the EU. They are not the same thing at all.
And the UK animal welfare standards are better than many other parts of the EU. It is only your own bigotry that stops you seeing that.
Are you joking? British standards of pig rearing are miles ahead of the continent, Italy included. British potk is far more expensive than European pork due to standards of animal care.
Europe wide regulations were introduced a few years ago to bring the rest of Europe in to line with the UK pig industry but they are blatantly flouted.
From the Torygraph too. There is an assumption the elderly (who turn out more) are going to turn out heavily for Out, but I'm less convinced. Those who are naturally conservative and skeptical about change may be Euroskeptic as a result but may also be put off actually Leaving for the exact same reason.
No, older voters are thoroughly disillusioned by the EU (and they were the youngsters who voted for it in1975).
There is one thing being disillusioned (and grumbling), there's another thing altogether actually going to the polling booth and voting for Leave.
I think there's not much doubt how older voters will vote.
The question is whether they get outnumbered by younger ones.
If Remain win by a convincing margin it will be by shifting some of the older voters. Older voters are naturally more risk-averse than younger ones and if Remain convince them that leaving is a risk then that is what will cause opinions to change.
We sell to many places that have immigration controls.
Britain has close (some would argue too close) relations with the USA: trade, politics, security.
I can't just touch down there and move and work where I like. Certainly can't start claiming benefits over there!
Like Sean_F, I can't see that the Spanish government's sovereign right to impose certain restrictions on British people coming to Spain would be any kind of tragedy. It is something that they used to have a right to do, and if there comes a point where they can do so again, the world isn't going to cave in.
Might make us poorer compared to the counterfactual.
There would be a reduction in the numbers who could exercise their rights under free movement if Leave were to win.
Europeans would then return to being subject to the same visa requirements as non-EU citizens, and the application of 'no recourse to public funds' restrictions would become more prevalent for EU workers here on visas.
Presumably Britons would need a visa to travel to the Continent too then?
Permission to live in Spain? Use of Spanish health services? And that’s just Spain.
I've never found the concept of Spain imposing immigration controls on British citizens to be intolerable.
You don't want to sell things to Spain? But this is becoming tiresome. Of course you want to sell to Spain and various other countries as well which is why the UK will remain a part of the EU Single Market and the free movement of labour and the brexit argument is a load of baloney. Nothing much is going to change.
Precisely. A lot of Leavers are going to be very cross when they find out they've essentially voted for more of the same.
We won't remain in EEA. If we vote leave, migration will be major reason why and politicians will take their orders on limiting migration.
As far as I am concerned animal welfare and rearing and butchering mammals for food are slightly incompatible.
But Italian meat production is better than the UK. Italians just wouldn't buy cheaply produced meat.. They would think there is something wrong with the meat, and they would also think the animal has been badly treated to produce prices this low.
Actually, you will find that the TB incidence in Italy is much less. Perhaps this is due to the fact that Italians farm and rear their cattle and slaughter them much more humanely, but pay more for their meat.
In the UK people want to go Tescos, and buy a pack of 2 sirloin steaks for a fiver, or less. With Brexit, and without any kind of regulation, we can drive our terrible, inhumane meat production even lower.
As said previously, Europe can be a much more civilising influence and teach us how to behave that bit better. Go DC. In the unlikeliest places, people find their heroes.....
And once again you make the perhaps purposeful error of conflating Europe and the EU. They are not the same thing at all.
And the UK animal welfare standards are better than many other parts of the EU. It is only your own bigotry that stops you seeing that.
You will like this article.it is from 2010 but civilised Italy gets a special mention.
From the Torygraph too. There is an assumption the elderly (who turn out more) are going to turn out heavily for Out, but I'm less convinced. Those who are naturally conservative and skeptical about change may be Euroskeptic as a result but may also be put off actually Leaving for the exact same reason.
Wait until Dave deploys the Brexit = Danger to your pensions line.
The huge danger to peoples pensions over the coming years is the oncoming global sovereign debt crisis , and throughout history when the trouble really starts nationalising pensions has been a classic government response.
To say the danger comes from Brexit is risible in the extreme.....but I guess that's the sort of levels to which the remain side will stoop over the next 4 months.
But, I profoundly struggle with the Brexit concept. I can kind of understand (not agree with) right wing and ideological concepts- lower taxation, benefit cuts, privatisation etc..; the EU debate, I just don't get it.
The world is fundamentally changing exponentially. As far as I am aware we need to work collectively, and in the first instance collaborate with those nations they we share some basic stuff with. I cannot for the life of me understand how everyone just doesn't get this fundamental fact.
From my point if view it is simple. There are two basic strands - the practical and the philosophical.
The philosophical one which I share with some on here - notably Robert Smithsonian - is a basic Libertarian position. Government should be as limited and as close to the people as possible and the state should be as small as practical. Extremely limited in its function and reach. The EU fails utterly on this basic concept.
The second, practical, objection is simply that the EU does not and cannot work. Trying to impose a unified set of all encompassing rules on a continent as wonderfully diverse as Europe is simply not practical. And the upshot of the failure to be able to do that when it gas been attempted is resentment, disorder, economic and social strife and a situation that is far worse than if no attempt had been made in the first place.
The EU does not work. Not because of corruption or lack of ability or vision by its architects and functionaries, but because it can never work. It is a failed experiment which should be allowed to die.
Well put Richard - my position as a libertarian too. If our former MP from Broxtowe was on, I'd love to peruse his admiration of Switzerland as the ideal case study of a country nearest to the true ideal of a democracy (although regrettably it too has been moving away from this and towards a republic in the traditional sense of the word) and not in the EU, and freer and more prosperous as a result.
Yep. Very much agree. I have never been able to reconcile Nick's views on Swiss direct democracy and the monolithic EU bureaucracy.
Comments
He will - if Remain wins, as I expect it will - have achieved exactly the same political legacy in relation to the EU as Wilson. His negotiations will have achieved nothing to deal with the fundamental issue of what the relationship between a country in a minority and with several opt-outs should be vs the majority intent on a political/economic union. Because that has not been resolved in any real sense this issue will continue to be an issue in the medium and longer term for every British government, of whatever colour.
What he will have achieved brilliantly is winning the short term battle with his party and with UKIP and ending his career with another success. Dave will likely outsmart BoJo and get his mate George on the top team.
But this isn't about a lot of public school boys playing their games.
This is about us and our country and what its future should be and whether Europe as a whole, not just the EU, is on the right path. And all of that seems to have been forgotten a bit. Just like Labour are in love with an institution created in 1948 as if all wisdom about how a health service should be structured was known then and nothing since then could possibly change what was known then, so those in favour of the EU are in love with an institution created in 1958 in the same way. Both groups are exhibiting symptoms of the sunk cost fallacy.
You clearly don't realise that increased EU regulation has caused the closure of many medium and smaller abattoirs, leading to animals enduring increased suffering on longer journeys to more distant slaughter-houses.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/1191286.stm
I think the parliamentary party don't have confidence in his negotiation skills with the EU.
It's possible he could survive with a very very drastic reshuffle, putting Leavers in all the key positions, but we're talking at least a 10/1 shot of that.
And the UK animal welfare standards are better than many other parts of the EU. It is only your own bigotry that stops you seeing that.
The thing he is most at fault for is not managing to minimise the party split by getting a deal which is so obviously poor apparently - it was always going to be shat upon by the malcontents, they were always going to call for him to go, win or lose, no matter how honourably, or not, he campaigned, but he need not have been deserted by so many, to the point he looks a busted flush less than a year after his great triumph.
I see no way for Cameron to last even to 2018. He's proven me wrong before, but even if most Tory MPs and members do not hate him, too many of them obviously do, too many for him to survive even if he wins. Him beating them, again, would not be something they could forgive.
"Hey, he's only on 35% nationally. That's a lot less than half, right?"
There is a POV that Cameron will be forced to have a Mason Verger premiership: after having been made to cut his own face off by holding and losing the referendum, he should be kept in place long enough to feed it to the dogs and file the Article 50 motion to LEAVE. That way, the 1922 Committee get to fondle their inner Lecter.
Conversely he could kid himself that having lost a majority of his party and his country he is still an effective PM and see out the remainder of his spavined premiership in the company of people who speak quietly and are careful to make no sudden movements
So yes, he can dig his feet in. If he wants. There's no need to kill him twice.
But, I profoundly struggle with the Brexit concept. I can kind of understand (not agree with) right wing and ideological concepts- lower taxation, benefit cuts, privatisation etc..; the EU debate, I just don't get it.
The world is fundamentally changing exponentially. As far as I am aware we need to work collectively, and in the first instance collaborate with those nations they we share some basic stuff with. I cannot for the life of me understand how everyone just doesn't get this fundamental fact.
Are there big Rubio backers in the UK who think spending Sterling propping up his price *over here* is a good use of their time and money?
Although Predictit seems to have trump @ 2/1 for POTUS & 4/6 for the GOP. If you were going to arb Cruz, you'd probably arb Trump too.
I suppose we could slaughter the French way "them being being civilised In'all" and just cook them in the transport lorries they arrive in.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/12169236/EU-terrorism-checks-watered-down-to-avoid-holiday-queues.html
"Trader A," as the research paper dubs the trader, was responsible for about one-third of the money bet on Romney over the last two weeks — and about one-quarter over the entire cycle on Intrade.
The authors of the paper — economists Rajiv Sethi, of Barnard College and Columbia University; and David Rothschild, of Microsoft Research — speculate that Trader A's intent was to manipulate Romney's position.
http://www.businessinsider.com/mitt-romney-intrade-bets-trader-millions-2013-9?IR=T
I don't know what will win out.
https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/701886069181177856
But Italian meat production is better than the UK. Italians just wouldn't buy cheaply produced meat.. They would think there is something wrong with the meat, and they would also think the animal has been badly treated to produce prices this low.
https://t.co/RRtXWTKW0T https://t.co/NAD59P692m
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/feb/22/who-are-tory-mps-on-each-side-of-eu-debate-cameron-eurosceptic
Still, it's the Telegraph so pretty much what you'd expect.
You are assuming that collaboration means union of some kind and means, as far as Europe is concerned, a union of a very specific type conceived in the aftermath of a world war and influenced by the cultures (social/political/historical) of very different times.
It is precisely because the world is changing that we need to be flexible and prepared to adjust our thinking and our approach.
From Sky... "house building shares were lower, with Berkeley Group down 5% and Barratt Developments off by 4%. A note last month from analysts at Credit Suisse suggested a fall in immigration as a result of Brexit could cut housing demand."
Many ppl would think that a good thing.
It's all moot to me, as the politeness while no doubt nice for Tory nerves, was a paper thin covering of a lot of implicitly very damaging criticism on both sides already so more open hostility makes not much difference, but already the narrative is emerging, clearly. Cameron got a crap deal, he at best believes in that crap deal and at worst is lying about it, and any ructions in Tory ranks is his fault (which is handy when paired with Lord Hague's plea, as they can use Cameron's scalp as a way to prevent the split).
Yeah, he'll be fine if he wins.
Leave will have a majority of the Conservative backbenches.
So obviously RNC cash to try and stop Trump.
But this is becoming tiresome. Of course you want to sell to Spain and various other countries as well which is why the UK will remain a part of the EU Single Market and the free movement of labour and the brexit argument is a load of baloney. Nothing much is going to change.
But, like DC today, when need be, we can rise up and fight tooth and nail to such an extent that we make the Guido Fawkes fan base seem like pussies.
The Brexit lobby is going to be smashed into small, little pieces. And then spat out and spewed for generations.
The philosophical one which I share with some on here - notably Robert Smithsonian - is a basic Libertarian position. Government should be as limited and as close to the people as possible and the state should be as small as practical. Extremely limited in its function and reach. The EU fails utterly on this basic concept.
The second, practical, objection is simply that the EU does not and cannot work. Trying to impose a unified set of all encompassing rules on a continent as wonderfully diverse as Europe is simply not practical. And the upshot of the failure to be able to do that when it gas been attempted is resentment, disorder, economic and social strife and a situation that is far worse than if no attempt had been made in the first place.
The EU does not work. Not because of corruption or lack of ability or vision by its architects and functionaries, but because it can never work. It is a failed experiment which should be allowed to die.
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2010/feb/16/meat-imports-animal-welfare-standards
And here as well
http://www.ciwf.org.uk/farm-animals/cows/veal-calves/
We sell to many places that have immigration controls.
And then Cameron tells us that the EU keeps us safe. And without it we'll be at risk.
And if the Commission can't regulate the EU's borders how, exactly, is it keeping anyone safe?
Enough with these meretricious arguments. Really enough.
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/albuquerque-journal-research-polling-23833
Irrelevant, as it'll be all over by then...
Papers @SkyNews @annabotting me @Kevin_Maguire on @David_Cameron showing his ugly Flashman streak over Boris
This is where I have my doubts about Johnson,he isn't up for the fight,Flashman made him look not PM material today.
So after today in the commons,if I was him,my pay back would to put my heart and soul into the campaign,get your self out there with well informed information on leaving the EU.
Take it to the country man and put the shitters on the establishment
I thought they were all for Leave?
Also, if his list is right, I can't for the life of me understand why Jesse Norman hasn't declared yet.
John Humpries on the Today program was his usual self - "200 hours to read to understand the debate on the EU".....and then a feature on what you could do with 200 hours in your life........with the all too obvious inference that it isn't worth reading the nitty gritty of EU legislation, articles and treaties - what a disgraceful way to talk down to the listener as though they'd be a nerd or a wonk to do their own research and find out what an insidious organisation the EU really is.
https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/701889550285721600
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/matt/?cartoon=12169177&cc=12134959
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/D
I do fear that you're mistaking your circle of rich, lefty Tuscan friends for Italians as a whole.
I recall you making the same mistake re your circle of rich, lefty North Oxford friends and British people as a whole.
The question is whether they get outnumbered by younger ones.
Our old, anachronistic and often slow to adapt Parliament has been pretty effective at overseeing a small island in the North Sea becoming a pretty important world power and trading nation and the retreat from Empire over hundreds of years, while still developing into a free liberal democracy and without falling prey to either fascism, Nazism or communism.
That's a pretty good record. Shall we do a comparison with some of the equivalent legislative chambers on the Continent?
I think the thinking was that the election of Corbyn was a licence for the Tory party to move to the Left, win the "centre ground" and crown Osborne.
I think there's a large chunk of the backbenches who really don't like that.
Surely if collaboration is a good in and of itself then that's a great idea for you.
Good night.
Just remembered Predictit has a contract limit per user for each market. Basically, from what I can tell, arbing by buying on Predictit & selling on Betfair becomes less profitable as the odds of a candidate winning increases. The ability to scale reduces - as does the impact of the liquidity on the betfair price.
If, theoretically, you can buy cruz.gop for as much as possible ($850 I think?) @ 1c (or 1%) - your betfair lay would be ~£$2500 @ 33/1 or whatever
That's quite a big amount when it shows up in Cruz's lay box.
Selling trump.potus @30c for $850 would only leave you with a relatively small amount to back on betfair. It wouldn't impact the price much.
I'm not sure precisely how predictit works - and I may have got the calculation slightly wrong here. Does anyone (lurkers included) have any experience with predicit?
They weren't impressed.
I was merely making a gentle point that even your chosen place in Europe has problems as do many others.
On the whole the UK is so highly regulated and monitored it is rare these days but incidents do happen once in a while. However Your portrayal of the U.K. was to all intents quite unfair and most inaccurate.
Europe wide regulations were introduced a few years ago to bring the rest of Europe in to line with the UK pig industry but they are blatantly flouted.
I can't just touch down there and move and work where I like. Certainly can't start claiming benefits over there!
Like Sean_F, I can't see that the Spanish government's sovereign right to impose certain restrictions on British people coming to Spain would be any kind of tragedy. It is something that they used to have a right to do, and if there comes a point where they can do so again, the world isn't going to cave in.
Might make us poorer compared to the counterfactual.
More nonsense from the ill informed Tyson.
To say the danger comes from Brexit is risible in the extreme.....but I guess that's the sort of levels to which the remain side will stoop over the next 4 months.