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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Bullingdon boys go into battle and it ain’t going to be
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Bullingdon boys go into battle and it ain’t going to be pretty
We’ve always known that Dave is at his best when his back is to the wall and that’s how it must have seen this morning with the massive media coverage of the decision by Boris to back LEAVE.
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And if the European Parliament eviscerates the deal it will all have been for nothing. Dave and Boris both holed below the water line, and a worthless (well, more worthless) agreement and the vote already held. Ugh.
A raging Europhile leaving an overwhelmingly eurosceptic Party.
Whether we LEAVE or REMAIN something's got to give- Hopefully Cameron and Osborne's careers.
So call a new one it is, but the country doesn't like being told they got a vote wrong. So there'd need to be grounds for a new vote, it would be interesting to see what they are.
Ironically the best way for the deal not to unravel might be for a sceptic to become PM. If lets say we object under the new procedure and a review begins the sceptic Prime Minister could say that if the review isn't met to our satisfaction then clearly the system we voted for hasn't worked and he'll call a new vote campaigning for Leave ... so to avoid that the EU would likely meet our concerns on that issue to avoid it being an issue.
Charles mentioned that under Cameron's deal, we would no longer be able to sue before the ECJ against ECB power grabs (eg over clearing). If we are all subject to the same rules, wouldn't it make such power grabs more difficult as it would amount to discrimination?
Sorry to repeat myself, just trying to get my head around the regulatory side.
Mr. Gin, one is quite unimpressed with Cameron.
I had to smile when I read one tweet saying his command of the commons was almost that of Tony Blair in his pomp.
It seems like Cameron gave a good answer to an average question by Boris. Clearly Cameron had the advantage of the dispatch box and used it well, but he hardly declared war on Boris.
malcolmg said:
Unfortunately I believe England will chicken out big time and REMAIN. Too many cowardy custards worried they might lose a fiver. The Great has gone from Britain forever , just followers nowadays.
Unlike Scotland
Exactly like Scotland, too many chickens
On the plus side, my comparison of Osborne to Antigonus Monopthalmus may prove accurate.
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/dan-jones-associates-utahpolicy-com-23830
I think you are correct, sadly.
This is going to get very ugly indeed.
Previously on clearing - sorry to come back to this - it was discrimination because there were different rules for Euro and non-Euro countries, and the Eurozone came up with a rule saying "all Euro-denominated clearing must be in a Eurozone country". So we sued and won.
Now they can come up with a single rule, applicable to everyone, saying that "All Euro-denominated clearing must be in a Eurozone country". We protest about it, there is a period of time during which the Commission tries to reach a consensus, then there is a vote and the rule is implemented
Gove & Johnson don't argue on econ or immigration, but “sovereignty, which means nothing to anybody” @GaryGibbonBlog http://blogs.channel4.com/gary-gibbon-on-politics/boris-johnson-throws-tory-mps-panic/32474#sthash.FvydARob.dpuf …
*Ponders whether Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs might be apposite at this point*
Betfair will go ballistic.
The remarkable frugality of Donald Trump, in 2 charts https://t.co/HkGNh1wkQQ https://t.co/JDdv8dtHoX
Not exactly as advertised.
Boris asks what powers come back. Cameron says vaguely some welfare, some bailout, some immigration (nonsense) and then goes on to say the deal means we won't cede any more.
I don't think he answered Boris's question, and instead answered a different one. Yes, he did so lucidly, but it wasn't a knock out.
Which is it chaps (and chapesses)?
(* whether Cameron was factual correct in his answer is another matter altogether)
This last point is why Cameron's "opt out from ever closer union" is so much bullshit.
Many were the same who moaned about Flashman.
I'm more sanguine given I don't feel threatened. I'm disappointed that Cameron has taken the gloves off so early against his own colleagues. It's done now. We move forward with this in mind.
One point I'd like to make: there will never be a "good" time to Leave. We've been locked into an economic union for over 40 years and, inevitably, Leaving is going to involve some uncertainty and temporary disruption as a new relationship is agreed.
The question you've got to ask yourselves is: is it worth it?
I remember Cameron himself making a similar argument prior to the GE2010 when criticised that 'now is no time for a novice'. He was also criticised that his deficit reduction plans would crash the economy and he lacked the necessary expertise. He quite rightly pointed out that if that was all that mattered you've never elect a new Prime Minister or government team, *ever*.
I have no fear of ending an unsatisfying relationship or employment that leads nowhere.
6 years ago I took a risk in leaving a very comfortable junior technical job in a medium sized engineering firm to join a business consultancy as its operations manager. I had no experience and knew it was a risk, because the division wasn't profitable, but it was an opportunity.
I did well for 9 months, and then was then made redundant. Scary experience. But I got £10k redundancy pay, paid off my debts, and then got a much better consultancy job with one of the Big 4 and doubled my salary. I also met my future wife through it and am now very happy.
None of that would have happened if I'd stayed put out of fear of the Unknown. If you are in a poor relationship going nowhere, you have to have the courage to end it.
And the ECJ only cares about the Treaties, it has even struck down UN Security Council Resolutions as being incompatible with the Treaties.
The trick Labour has to pull off is to keep JC in place to maximise the space for Tory decent and then swap him for a more effective leader once the Tories have reached the point of no return.
Will it happen? Who knows.
(Edit: from the final text)
2. Union law on the banking union conferring upon the European Central Bank, the Single Resolution Board or Union bodies exercising similar functions, authority over credit institutions is applicable only to credit institutions located in Member States whose currency is the euro or in Member States that have concluded with the European Central Bank a close cooperation agreement on prudential supervision, in accordance with relevant EU rules and subject to the requirements of group and consolidated supervision and resolution.
so for the SSM, SRM we are exempt. For capital requirements, CRD IV, as the implementation mechanism of the Basel protocols, there is less of an issue.
Incidentally, you've missed the far more serious political implications at the start of that blog.
PM assures Tory MPs he will be respectful of Out campaigners' views after a "few" urge him to be kind to Boris at the 1922 meeting
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/0eab8ae4-d943-11e5-a72f-1e7744c66818.html?ftcamp=published_links/rss/comment/feed//product#axzz40tht1xkE
"Brexit implies risk. It is not clear how the endorsement of a protean maverick eases that problem of perception. Theresa May, who probably tuts when she spies a clock 30 seconds out of sync with Greenwich Mean Time, could have brought stolid reassurance to the Leave campaign. But even the home secretary would have made no decisive difference. Because no individual, save the prime minister, possibly could. "
Updated: End of play Monday Tory MP #EURef tally:
REMAIN 129
OUT 120
UNDECIDED 45
UNKNOWN 36
The sovereignty case for LEAVE is compelling and, I think, unanswerable
The problem is that few people care for sovereignty as an absolute value save perhaps the Juche followers in the unlit bit of Korea
now - perhaps people have a problem with the BiS and, given recent history, it is difficult to say it has worked well, but it is a completely different kettle of fish to worrying about the EU and the single rulebook, where the key exemption in the deal is that we don't have to participate in the various single resolution measures.
Utah won't stop him being the Republican candidate. When he'll win the state over Hilllary by about 30%!
If it wasn't for the payroll vote, I think Leave would have a Tory majority.
http://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/blyth-labour-mp-ronnie-campbell-10770900#ICID=sharebar_twitter
As for the more contentious elements - ie SSM, SRM, then we do have exemption. As do we have exemption from other ECB laws on banking union, in the clause I have pasted now (including this one) three times:
2. Union law on the banking union conferring upon the European Central Bank, the Single Resolution Board or Union bodies exercising similar functions, authority over credit institutions is applicable only to credit institutions located in Member States whose currency is the euro or in Member States that have concluded with the European Central Bank a close cooperation agreement on prudential supervision, in accordance with relevant EU rules and subject to the requirements of group and consolidated supervision and resolution.
Emerson Massachusetts
GOP
Trump 50
Rubio 16
Kasich 13
Cruz 10
Carson 3
Dems
Sanders 46
Clinton 46
http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_d5ea765bda3b4fa580d9d6e2908ea509.pdf
KPR Vermont
GOP
Trump 33
Kasich 14
Rubio 14
Cruz 13
Dems
Sanders 78
Clinton 13
http://digital.vpr.net/post/vpr-poll-trump-leads-vermonts-gop-field-sanders-has-huge-home-state-support
West Virginia WVM
GOP
Trump 40
Cruz 20
Rubio 15
Carson 10
Kasich 6
Dems
Sanders 57
Clinton 29
http://wvmetronews.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/MetroNews-WV-Poll-Press-Release-2-22-2016-Presidential-Race-FINAL.pdf
"I have no other agenda than what is best for our country" = "I'm spending that political capital NOW"
GOP
Trump 35
Kasich 17
Cruz 12
Rubio 12
Carson 9
Dems
Clinton 53
Sanders 40
http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2016/primary/rep/mirep.html
Tied in with the C4 report that less than half of Tory MPs have turned out for tonights meeting...
<<SouthamObserver said:
If Leave wins it will be a Tory government negotiating Brexit. Given that all viable Tory leadership contenders believe in the free movement of goods, services, people and capital, neither a Remain or Leave vote is actually going to make much difference to anything. This is all a lot of shouting about not very much at all.>>
This brings in to play one of my main nagging concerns about voting Leave - the logical place we'll find ourselves in will be either EEA or EEA-lite and needing to basically adhere to most of what the EU states are bound by as a result, but not having any ability to shape future regulations.
Whatever the options are, the worst one by far to me is being in the EEA or some "special status" (ha...) one step removed from "full EEA". That would be a disaster. But that's where I think "Leave" would leave us.
Of course Mormons, and the fact it is a caucus, is why I think Trump's margin of victory will be smaller than it should be in Nevada.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tu4y7x9LRyY
The EU is NOT the single market. GLOBAL bodies make the rules.
#Brexit https://t.co/gWh70g7eey
You'll have to ask Charles for his view but there are plenty on here who foresee a takeover by the EU of the City of London whereby resistance is futile and we are better out than in to get our barricades in order.
I disagree with that view although understand that the EU is an organisation dedicated to ever closer union and ideally would like to centralise everything politically and economically.
Couldn't happen to a nicer fella...
Safe, uber clean and civic.
He ate a burger
Was on a train. And a boat!
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