As I have repeatedly said this is a very complicated question and the answer is far from clear cut. I think the answer to your question is that it really won't make much difference. If the EZ begin to use their QMV it really won't matter whether we are in or out. We will be outvoted anyway.
I agree it's complex, but in the large view: having zero votes in QMV makes us more likely to be outvoted than having one vote in QMV, and having institutional protection in the treaties (beefed up by the renegotiation) is better than having no protection - in an EEA-style deal there would not be even a nominal requirement not to discriminate against us. So it seems to me pretty much 100% clear that the EEA route cannot possibly be better, and very probably would be worse, in this respect.
Of course there would be a requirement not to discriminate. That is the whole basis of the EEA agreement. Besides you do now seem to be accepting that Cameron has actually not got any protection for the City at all.
Apparently Osborne and Cameron thought Gove was in the bag. When they discovered, to their horror, a few weeks ago he wasn't they had a series of meetings with him 2:1 to dissuade him, and through intermediaries.
Apparently, the sovereignty bill was supposed to be his work as Justice Secretary, but he wasn't convinced it was meaningful.
It has now been given to Oliver Letwin to pilot.
Gove's statement didn't sound as though he was on the fence at all. How could Cameron and Osborne get it so wrong?
The problem Gove faced, and he is very far from alone, is spelt out in his piece. He has great personal loyalty to DC and GO and he finds being on the opposite side from them difficult. He is of course a close personal friend. I have never met either of them but I am torn by the fact that voting Leave is likely to destroy some of the most competent and amenable (for me) government I have enjoyed in my life time. One of the questions I have to answer is whether the EU is worth this.
This Government wont be forever though, Cameron will only be around for a maximum of 3 more years. A LOT can change very quickly. Leaving the EU is more important for the future of this Country than Cameron or Osborne.
I agree it's complex, but in the large view: having zero votes in QMV makes us more likely to be outvoted than having one vote in QMV, and having institutional protection in the treaties (beefed up by the renegotiation) is better than having no protection - in an EEA-style deal there would not be even a nominal requirement not to discriminate against us. So it seems to me pretty much 100% clear that the EEA route cannot possibly be better, and very probably would be worse, in this respect.
If we work on they hypothesis that the EZ countries have a pre-meeting and agree their vote the difference is zero. We are outvoted and the official meeting becomes an irrelevance.
It is possible that this will not happen, that the EZ members will not form a consolidated bloc and that we will be able to find allies within them that support our position on any particular issue. If that were the case then you would be right and it would be better to stay in.
So the gamble is whether, as they increase their fiscal co-ordination a unified position becomes the norm or the current position where we have a chance, albeit the most frequently outvoted country persists. We don't really know but I think the common position is the more likely.
My favoured options on this are in order of preference: (1) a substantially reformed EU along the lines that Cameron set out in his Bloomberg speech. Regrettably not on the table. (2) Membership of the EEA with at least as close co-operation with the EU as any EEA member has now. (3) Membership continuing as it is now taking our chances. (4) Membership outside the EEA and the single market.
To vote Leave I need to be sure of (2). I will not risk (4). I believe that to be foolish. Despite how brilliant Gove's piece was yesterday he didn't really adequately address the question of what happens next. We'll be fine is not an answer.
I favour a single-market lite option with David Goodhart's suggested restrictions on free movement:
I hav not reqd Gove but if he has not given any clear suggestion of where to leave to then he is far from the intellectual he professes. And if as justice secretary be is not doing the sovereignty bill then I may have to retract my previous suggestion that post referendum unity could lead him to be chancellor.
There is nothing wrong with having a British Prime Minister fighting for a British sector, a profitable one.
The financial sector is not asking for an unfair advantage - or competition, as it is usually known - but not to made subject to eurozone rules when, er, we are not in the eurozone. What the other states want is to stop the city being competitive because it might show up their own failings.
Also note in some cases what this stops is individual countries having stronger rules than those proposed by the EU. So even if you think that, say, your insurers should be subject to X and Y rules (and you want to do this because this gives the public reassurance) if the EU says that only X is permitted, then you cannot do this. In other words, the EU can sometimes stop national governments providing more protection for consumers.
It's the absurdity of the one size fits all mentality and a desire to avoid any sort of competition. It's what happens when you get formulation of rules by bureaucrats who have no instinctive or any sort of understanding of free markets, competition or, indeed, the details of how this sector works at all. And what it also means is that if they make a mistake in regulation, they make it across the entire area. And if that mistake is a vital one the consequences are felt by everyone and are magnified. One size fits all regulation, when it goes wrong - and note that I say when, not if, because it will go wrong or be found wanting at some point - creates - or has the potential for creating - a systemic risk.
Surely a single market requires a single set of rules equally applied?
No. Why should it? You don't have the same VAT rates or the same income tax rates or the same corporation tax rates. The same opening and closing hours. The same rules on whether you are allowed overdrafts or not. The same rules on pensions. The same warranties sold with the same products. The same prices for everything.
The idea that the single market means that everything must be the same is the approach of the tidy bureaucrat who plans something out in theory with scant regard for the real messy world.
Crucially, why should those countries which are not in the eurozone have their finance sector governed by the eurozone?
I was not expecting Zahawi to come out for Leave. A big surprise.
I think No 10 will be panicking. Some big name cabinet ministers and 140+ MPs backing Brexit. Not quite the 70 or so MPs and no heavy hitters like they supposedly expected.
If Guido's numbers are right (massive if) then about 89 of the "In" vote (or 66%) are payroll:
In 134 ND 55 Out 141 Grand Total 330
And about 55% of the backbenchers are for Leave, with another 50 MPs still to declare.
@bbcnickrobinson: NB Boris spoke of "getting a better deal" NOT simply of leaving EU. Still dreaming of 2nd renegotiation & 2nd referendum (under a new PM?)
I think when people quote Boris' favourability rating, they ignore the fact that Boris is not running a department. People outside London have a view of him shaped only by the media.
What does the people of Liverpool think of him ?
This is why Boris will not put himself at the front and centre of the Leave campaign. He's calculated what's best for him politically, now he'll leave it to others to do the heavy lifting in set-piece interviews, debates etc.
He is entitled to think we ought to leave the eu without committing to tramping the country to argue so. All govt ministers still have their jobs to do as well. They will get plenty opportunity to display their otherwise loyalty in parliament as well.
What Boris has not done other than a generality is suggest where we ought to go, how we sensibly get there and define just what the end term difference will really be. The Sunday Times Business quotes the city as being releived ar the outcome of the negotiations and satisfied with the safeguards and that 50 of the FTSE100 leaders will be writing an official letter of support for continued membership. David Smith the Sunday Times Economics Editor confirms that immigration has a net economic benefit and that net migration from the EU is lower than other migration and that of the (larger) remainder a significant part is students here to study.
If they are basing that optimism on what they have been told by Cameron then they are going to be sadly disappointed when realty sets in. There is no protection for the city. None at all.
They have read the agreement. Countries outside the eurzone can regulate their own financial institutions. Its easy to spout all sorts of conjecture when tou start 'If...'
Nope they can't. As I quoted earlier. The EU has got Cameron to agree that there is a single rulebook covering all countries whether inside or outside the Eurozone.
They then say that if they bring forward a proposal under QMV which a non Eurozone country disagrees with then the objecting country has the right to be heard and make their case against the legislation. They emphasise this is time limited so the legislation cannot be held up for long by the objection.
Once the country has made its objection ... the legislation then passes by QMV just as it would have without an objection. There is no way for a non Eurozone country to stop legislatio they object to.
This was made clear in the Open Europe briefing this morning and is plain to see in the agreement.
Apparently Osborne and Cameron thought Gove was in the bag. When they discovered, to their horror, a few weeks ago he wasn't they had a series of meetings with him 2:1 to dissuade him, and through intermediaries.
Apparently, the sovereignty bill was supposed to be his work as Justice Secretary, but he wasn't convinced it was meaningful.
It has now been given to Oliver Letwin to pilot.
Gove's statement didn't sound as though he was on the fence at all. How could Cameron and Osborne get it so wrong?
The problem Gove faced, and he is very far from alone, is spelt out in his piece. He has great personal loyalty to DC and GO and he finds being on the opposite side from them difficult. He is of course a close personal friend. I have never met either of them but I am torn by the fact that voting Leave is likely to destroy some of the most competent and amenable (for me) government I have enjoyed in my life time. One of the questions I have to answer is whether the EU is worth this.
This Government wont be forever though, Cameron will only be around for a maximum of 3 more years. A LOT can change very quickly. Leaving the EU is more important for the future of this Country than Cameron or Osborne.
Yes, but Gove apart those in the Leave camp are massively less attractive to a socially liberal fiscally dry Tory like me. Some I would really struggle to vote for at all.
The bitterness on the Remain side is palpable. It feels the same as Leave when May and Hammond declared for Remain. Boris legitimises Leave, and he has more star power than any other UK politician.
I understand that the position of Secretary of State for Polar Bears on South Georgia is vacant.
Governor of Southern Thule, perhaps?
South Georgia is stunning and a place for anyone's bucket list. My wife and I treated ourselves to an Antarctica expedition for my retirement and the beauty and majesty was beyond description. Mind you you need to be a good sailor , we had eight days in hurricane seas
I was not expecting Zahawi to come out for Leave. A big surprise.
I think No 10 will be panicking. Some big name cabinet ministers and 140+ MPs backing Brexit. Not quite the 70 or so MPs and no heavy hitters like they supposedly expected.
If Guido's numbers are right (massive if) then about 89 of the "In" vote (or 66%) are payroll:
In 134 ND 55 Out 141 Grand Total 330
And about 55% of the backbenchers are for Leave, with another 50 MPs still to declare.
Considering this is a free vote there is no "payroll" whip. Besides unless the leader is a complete loon (cf Corbyn) I would expect the more serious, sensible and or credible MPs in the government party on average to be Ministers and more loony, dangerous, inexperienced or silly MPs to by backbenchers (cf Corbyn pre-Corbyn as leader). If the backbenchers are generally for leave and the ministers are generally in favour of remain then that seems positive for remain to me.
That is what Cameron's brilliant negotiation has got them. The square root of f*** all.
So you keep saying, but the City doesn't seem to think so. (Nor does the Beeb, for that matter).
In any case, that isn't even quite the point. The point is, would an EEA-style deal be better in that respect? (I'm 99% sure the answer is No, it would be worse, but IANAL). Or, alternatively, is there any other deal which would give the full access to the Single Market without the danger?
How about a reciprocal agreement whereby they can trade with us? After all we import £3 billion a year from them than we export, so surely it would be in their interest, no?
£3billion ????
More like a £66 billion UK deficit on goods and services with the EU during the last year:
Superlative 141 break from Ronnie to close out the Welsh Open 9-5. Surely there must be some more snooker fans apart from me on PB?
I lived opposite ex Irish Open champion Darren Morgan for a few years. He gave me free tickets to watch the Welsh Open final between the late Paul Hunter and Ken Doherty years ago.
Have you seen the new BBC film, The Rack Pack? I really enjoyed it; a funny, poignant look at the snooker glory years and the demise of people's champion Alex Higgins, who eventually died potless and alone. It's on Sky Anytime.
Pre-1973 it was perfectly possible to travel to Europe without needing any sort of visa. I did it all the time as did my parents. This idea that holidays in and travel to Europe only started when we joined the EU is total cobblers.
I didn't just say holidays.
I have family who have retired to Spain. Could you retire to Spain without a visa pre-73? If I decided I wanted to live near that family I could go and stay with them visa-free and job-free and look for work there then start working there without ever dealing with hassle like a visa etc - would that have been possible pre-73?
I know others see visas as a positive thing, but I see the lack of them as positive. I'm currently on holiday posting this from Canada where my in-laws live, again I didn't need a visa to go on holiday here but I would need one to get a job here. Relocating to live by my wife's parents would be a headache in a way it isn't across Europe.
Spain wasn't in the EU pre-1973. It was still under Franco. No idea what the retirement rules were.
I was not expecting Zahawi to come out for Leave. A big surprise.
I think No 10 will be panicking. Some big name cabinet ministers and 140+ MPs backing Brexit. Not quite the 70 or so MPs and no heavy hitters like they supposedly expected.
This must have been gamed already. The chap next door to No 10 is supposed to be such a clever strategist.
I think when people quote Boris' favourability rating, they ignore the fact that Boris is not running a department. People outside London have a view of him shaped only by the media.
What does the people of Liverpool think of him ?
This is why Boris will not put himself at the front and centre of the Leave campaign. He's calculated what's best for him politically, now he'll leave it to others to do the heavy lifting in set-piece interviews, debates etc.
He is entitled to think we ought to leave the eu without committing to tramping the country to argue so. All govt ministers still have their jobs to do as well. They will get plenty opportunity to display their otherwise loyalty in parliament as well.
What Boris has not done other than a generality is suggest where we ought to go, how we sensibly get there and define just what the end term difference will really be. The Sunday Times Business quotes the city as being releived ar the outcome of the negotiations and satisfied with the safeguards and that 50 of the FTSE100 leaders will be writing an official letter of support for continued membership. David Smith the Sunday Times Economics Editor confirms that immigration has a net economic benefit and that net migration from the EU is lower than other migration and that of the (larger) remainder a significant part is students here to study.
If they are basing that optimism on what they have been told by Cameron then they are going to be sadly disappointed when realty sets in. There is no protection for the city. None at all.
They have read the agreement. Countries outside the eurzone can regulate their own financial institutions. Its easy to spout all sorts of conjecture when tou start 'If...'
Nope they can't. As I quoted earlier. The EU has got Cameron to agree that there is a single rulebook covering all countries whether inside or outside the Eurozone.
They then say that if they bring forward a proposal under QMV which a non Eurozone country disagrees with then the objecting country has the right to be heard and make their case against the legislation. They emphasise this is time limited so the legislation cannot be held up for long by the objection.
Once the country has made its objection ... the legislation then passes by QMV just as it would have without an objection. There is no way for a non Eurozone country to stop legislatio they object to.
This was made clear in the Open Europe briefing this morning and is plain to see in the agreement.
Was this (minus the protections/review) not always the case under QMV subjects anyway?
South Georgia is stunning and a place for anyone's bucket list. My wife and I treated ourselves to an Antarctica expedition for my retirement and the beauty and majesty was beyond description. Mind you you need to be a good sailor , we had eight days in hurricane seas
My aunt, who will be 80 this year, is doing an Antarctic trip at Easter. She has already done a Falklands trip
Pre-1973 it was perfectly possible to travel to Europe without needing any sort of visa. I did it all the time as did my parents. This idea that holidays in and travel to Europe only started when we joined the EU is total cobblers.
I didn't just say holidays.
I have family who have retired to Spain. Could you retire to Spain without a visa pre-73? If I decided I wanted to live near that family I could go and stay with them visa-free and job-free and look for work there then start working there without ever dealing with hassle like a visa etc - would that have been possible pre-73?
I know others see visas as a positive thing, but I see the lack of them as positive. I'm currently on holiday posting this from Canada where my in-laws live, again I didn't need a visa to go on holiday here but I would need one to get a job here. Relocating to live by my wife's parents would be a headache in a way it isn't across Europe.
I managed to go to university in Austria before Austria joined the EC (as was). I also have spent time working in Spain and in Greece before the single market was created. From what I recall, I had to have a medical and a chest X-ray to be allowed to live in Austria and I had to register with the police in Spain. That was it.
The hated Melanie Phillips put it quite well on Daily Politics earlier
To paraphrase "Yes REMAIN offers more certainty, the certainty of servitude"
It isn't certainty people will get, it's absolution from responsibility. No matter how bad it gets, some people just want it to be someone else's decision. If it all goes wrong they can moan about the EU in the queue to the re-education camp. 'Leave' means taking responsibility. People don't want to do that.
Gobbledegook. What decisions exactly will you individually make when the EU is despatched? What actions will you suddenly find yourself responsible for? Perhaps you mean you voted for someone who voted for someone who has a say in taking responsibility for something?
I was unfortunate that I didn't vote for anyone who has a responsibility for anything because my party didn't win so I'm as happy with a European I didn't vote for as as I would be with anyone else.
Check out page 40 onwards of Cutting the Gordian knot: A road map for British exit from the European Union by Iain Murray and Rory Broomfield. Lots of interesting info on farming.
@bbcnickrobinson: NB Boris spoke of "getting a better deal" NOT simply of leaving EU. Still dreaming of 2nd renegotiation & 2nd referendum (under a new PM?)
There is nothing wrong with having a British Prime Minister fighting for a British sector, a profitable one.
The financial sector is not asking for an unfair advantage - or competition, as it is usually known - but not to made subject to eurozone rules when, er, we are not in the eurozone. What the other states want is to stop the city being competitive because it might show up their own failings.
Also note in some cases what this stops is individual countries having stronger rules than those proposed by the EU. So even if you think that, say, your insurers should be subject to X and Y rules (and you want to do this because this gives the public reassurance) if the EU says that only X is permitted, then you cannot do this. In other words, the EU can sometimes stop national governments providing more protection for consumers.
Surely a single market requires a single set of rules equally applied?
No. Why should it? You don't have the same VAT rates or the same income tax rates or the same corporation tax rates. The same opening and closing hours. The same rules on whether you are allowed overdrafts or not. The same rules on pensions. The same warranties sold with the same products. The same prices for everything.
The idea that the single market means that everything must be the same is the approach of the tidy bureaucrat who plans something out in theory with scant regard for the real messy world.
Crucially, why should those countries which are not in the eurozone have their finance sector governed by the eurozone?
If you are saying that different rules should be applied in different parts of the market, that is quite distant from a single market. It is of course reasonable to argue that a single market is not a good idea.
Apparently Osborne and Cameron thought Gove was in the bag. When they discovered, to their horror, a few weeks ago he wasn't they had a series of meetings with him 2:1 to dissuade him, and through intermediaries.
Apparently, the sovereignty bill was supposed to be his work as Justice Secretary, but he wasn't convinced it was meaningful.
It has now been given to Oliver Letwin to pilot.
Gove's statement didn't sound as though he was on the fence at all. How could Cameron and Osborne get it so wrong?
The problem Gove faced, and he is very far from alone, is spelt out in his piece. He has great personal loyalty to DC and GO and he finds being on the opposite side from them difficult. He is of course a close personal friend. I have never met either of them but I am torn by the fact that voting Leave is likely to destroy some of the most competent and amenable (for me) government I have enjoyed in my life time. One of the questions I have to answer is whether the EU is worth this.
This Government wont be forever though, Cameron will only be around for a maximum of 3 more years. A LOT can change very quickly. Leaving the EU is more important for the future of this Country than Cameron or Osborne.
Yes, but Gove apart those in the Leave camp are massively less attractive to a socially liberal fiscally dry Tory like me. Some I would really struggle to vote for at all.
Nope they can't. As I quoted earlier. The EU has got Cameron to agree that there is a single rulebook covering all countries whether inside or outside the Eurozone.
They then say that if they bring forward a proposal under QMV which a non Eurozone country disagrees with then the objecting country has the right to be heard and make their case against the legislation. They emphasise this is time limited so the legislation cannot be held up for long by the objection.
Once the country has made its objection ... the legislation then passes by QMV just as it would have without an objection. There is no way for a non Eurozone country to stop legislatio they object to.
This was made clear in the Open Europe briefing this morning and is plain to see in the agreement.
Yes, I got a bunch of messages yesterday in our work whatsapp group saying we're worse off now than before wrt to City regulation.
Apparently Osborne and Cameron thought Gove was in the bag. When they discovered, to their horror, a few weeks ago he wasn't they had a series of meetings with him 2:1 to dissuade him, and through intermediaries.
Apparently, the sovereignty bill was supposed to be his work as Justice Secretary, but he wasn't convinced it was meaningful.
It has now been given to Oliver Letwin to pilot.
Gove's statement didn't sound as though he was on the fence at all. How could Cameron and Osborne get it so wrong?
The problem Gove faced, and he is very far from alone, is spelt out in his piece. He has great personal loyalty to DC and GO and he finds being on the opposite side from them difficult. He is of course a close personal friend. I have never met either of them but I am torn by the fact that voting Leave is likely to destroy some of the most competent and amenable (for me) government I have enjoyed in my life time. One of the questions I have to answer is whether the EU is worth this.
This Government wont be forever though, Cameron will only be around for a maximum of 3 more years. A LOT can change very quickly. Leaving the EU is more important for the future of this Country than Cameron or Osborne.
Yes, but Gove apart those in the Leave camp are massively less attractive to a socially liberal fiscally dry Tory like me. Some I would really struggle to vote for at all.
South Georgia is stunning and a place for anyone's bucket list. My wife and I treated ourselves to an Antarctica expedition for my retirement and the beauty and majesty was beyond description. Mind you you need to be a good sailor , we had eight days in hurricane seas
My aunt, who will be 80 this year, is doing an Antarctic trip at Easter. She has already done a Falklands trip
It is absolutely fab and we were fortunate that we had four separate shore landings with leaders and guides
Apparently Osborne and Cameron thought Gove was in the bag. When they discovered, to their horror, a few weeks ago he wasn't they had a series of meetings with him 2:1 to dissuade him, and through intermediaries.
Apparently, the sovereignty bill was supposed to be his work as Justice Secretary, but he wasn't convinced it was meaningful.
It has now been given to Oliver Letwin to pilot.
Gove's statement didn't sound as though he was on the fence at all. How could Cameron and Osborne get it so wrong?
The problem Gove faced, and he is very far from alone, is spelt out in his piece. He has great personal loyalty to DC and GO and he finds being on the opposite side from them difficult. He is of course a close personal friend. I have never met either of them but I am torn by the fact that voting Leave is likely to destroy some of the most competent and amenable (for me) government I have enjoyed in my life time. One of the questions I have to answer is whether the EU is worth this.
This Government wont be forever though, Cameron will only be around for a maximum of 3 more years. A LOT can change very quickly. Leaving the EU is more important for the future of this Country than Cameron or Osborne.
Yes, but Gove apart those in the Leave camp are massively less attractive to a socially liberal fiscally dry Tory like me. Some I would really struggle to vote for at all.
I think there are plenty of Leavers on the same side as you eg Bo Jo, Andrea Leadsom, Sarah Wollaston, Penny Mordaunt, Nadim Zahawi, Zac Goldsmith, Caroline Dinenage, Theresa Villiers.
@bbcnickrobinson: NB Boris spoke of "getting a better deal" NOT simply of leaving EU. Still dreaming of 2nd renegotiation & 2nd referendum (under a new PM?)
I was not expecting Zahawi to come out for Leave. A big surprise.
I think No 10 will be panicking. Some big name cabinet ministers and 140+ MPs backing Brexit. Not quite the 70 or so MPs and no heavy hitters like they supposedly expected.
If Guido's numbers are right (massive if) then about 89 of the "In" vote (or 66%) are payroll:
In 134 ND 55 Out 141 Grand Total 330
And about 55% of the backbenchers are for Leave, with another 50 MPs still to declare.
Considering this is a free vote there is no "payroll" whip. Besides unless the leader is a complete loon (cf Corbyn) I would expect the more serious, sensible and or credible MPs in the government party on average to be Ministers and more loony, dangerous, inexperienced or silly MPs to by backbenchers (cf Corbyn pre-Corbyn as leader). If the backbenchers are generally for leave and the ministers are generally in favour of remain then that seems positive for remain to me.
I didn't say there was a payroll whip.
I merely pointed out that 66% of those in the parliamentary Conservative Party who favour Remain are in Government.
Was this (minus the protections/review) not always the case under QMV subjects anyway?
No, currently we have a full opt-out of EMU only rules, if we vote to remain we will lose that opt-out and gain a new review process. It is a step backwards.
The hated Melanie Phillips put it quite well on Daily Politics earlier
To paraphrase "Yes REMAIN offers more certainty, the certainty of servitude"
It isn't certainty people will get, it's absolution from responsibility. No matter how bad it gets, some people just want it to be someone else's decision. If it all goes wrong they can moan about the EU in the queue to the re-education camp. 'Leave' means taking responsibility. People don't want to do that.
Gobbledegook. What decisions exactly will you individually make when the EU is despatched? What actions will you suddenly find yourself responsible for? Perhaps you mean you voted for someone who voted for someone who has a say in taking responsibility for something?
I was unfortunate that I didn't vote for anyone who has a responsibility for anything because my party didn't win so I'm as happy with a European I didn't vote for as as I would be with anyone else.
I'm not talking about the political actuality, I'm talking about what is more important - the perception. I thought you were in advertising.
Possibly the most cynical political decision since Blair went into Iraq with Bush. Johnson's late 'out' position shows just what an opportunist he is. 'Wont't share a platform with Farage' whilst sharing a 'platform' with Farage. What a complete twat he is. I suppose you shouldn't be surprised from someone who swore he wouldn't become an MP whilst being Mayor of London and then promptly became an MP. He's a proper shit.
What a pleasant second post.
I've been a member on here since the place started, Don't know why my name has changed and not made any contributions for years. But I've been reading and posting since before you. I'm sure your efforts are more valid than mine.
Don't worry about it. All the neophytes have a go at me (especially if you're pro-EU or pro-NHS) yet I too have been posting here since 2004.
If this is a measuring contest, I have also been posting since before the '05 election. Certainly not a neophyte.
Of course not but it wasn't me who referred to mjwfrome17's number of posts.
Possibly the most cynical political decision since Blair went into Iraq with Bush. Johnson's late 'out' position shows just what an opportunist he is. 'Wont't share a platform with Farage' whilst sharing a 'platform' with Farage. What a complete twat he is. I suppose you shouldn't be surprised from someone who swore he wouldn't become an MP whilst being Mayor of London and then promptly became an MP. He's a proper shit.
What a pleasant second post.
I've been a member on here since the place started, Don't know why my name has changed and not made any contributions for years. But I've been reading and posting since before you. I'm sure your efforts are more valid than mine.
Don't worry about it. All the neophytes have a go at me (especially if you're pro-EU or pro-NHS) yet I too have been posting here since 2004.
If this is a measuring contest, I have also been posting since before the '05 election. Certainly not a neophyte.
Of course not but it wasn't me who referred to mjwfrome17's number of posts.
The main point was to point out it's unpleasantness
Superlative 141 break from Ronnie to close out the Welsh Open 9-5. Surely there must be some more snooker fans apart from me on PB?
I spent 2 days in Cardiff watching him win one matchin 38 mins and turn down a 147 in another.
Different class.
I spend about 12 weeks a year watching live snooker. Great for betting
That was an amazing performance against that Chinese player, lucky you to see 3 hundreds and a 90 in 4 frames in 38 minutes like you say! Looking forward to seeing him in a Snooker Legends exhibition in Bournemouth at the start of March. If it wasn't an Olympic year and Ronnie wins at the Crucible for a 6th time, then I think he should be SPOTY champion just like Ryan Giggs was towards the end of his career. Going to have to wait until 2017 all being well. There are very few sportsmen and women who have been at the top of their sport for as long as he has since that UK win in 1993 over 22 years ago now.
Apparently Osborne and Cameron thought Gove was in the bag. When they discovered, to their horror, a few weeks ago he wasn't they had a series of meetings with him 2:1 to dissuade him, and through intermediaries.
Apparently, the sovereignty bill was supposed to be his work as Justice Secretary, but he wasn't convinced it was meaningful.
It has now been given to Oliver Letwin to pilot.
Gove's statement didn't sound as though he was on the fence at all. How could Cameron and Osborne get it so wrong?
The problem Gove faced, and he is very far from alone, is spelt out in his piece. He has great personal loyalty to DC and GO and he finds being on the opposite side from them difficult. He is of course a close personal friend. I have never met either of them but I am torn by the fact that voting Leave is likely to destroy some of the most competent and amenable (for me) government I have enjoyed in my life time. One of the questions I have to answer is whether the EU is worth this.
This Government wont be forever though, Cameron will only be around for a maximum of 3 more years. A LOT can change very quickly. Leaving the EU is more important for the future of this Country than Cameron or Osborne.
Yes, but Gove apart those in the Leave camp are massively less attractive to a socially liberal fiscally dry Tory like me. Some I would really struggle to vote for at all.
I think there are plenty of Leavers on the same side as you eg Bo Jo, Andrea Leadsom, Sarah Wollaston, Penny Mordaunt, Nadim Zahawi, Zac Goldsmith, Caroline Dinenage, Theresa Villiers.
Indeed. It is making me seriously reconsider my vote. A socially liberal, fiscally dry, open to Europe but politically sovereign Britain sounds perfect for me.
If it means the Scots sod off and we lose not just European socialist regulations but 59 socialists from Westminster then so much the better.
The problem is I can't see Leave winning. Winning my vote is very different to winning 51% of the vote and I'd rather Remain wins a landslide than by a tiny margin.
Surely a single market requires a single set of rules equally applied?
No. Why should it? You don't have the same VAT rates or the same income tax rates or the same corporation tax rates. The same opening and closing hours. The same rules on whether you are allowed overdrafts or not. The same rules on pensions. The same warranties sold with the same products. The same prices for everything.
The idea that the single market means that everything must be the same is the approach of the tidy bureaucrat who plans something out in theory with scant regard for the real messy world.
Crucially, why should those countries which are not in the eurozone have their finance sector governed by the eurozone?
If you are saying that different rules should be applied in different parts of the market, that is quite distant from a single market. It is of course reasonable to argue that a single market is not a good idea.
No. It's what we have now. I can set up a bookselling business here and sell to French, Italian and German readers and others across the EU. I can do that because of the single market. Whether I choose to start work at 6 am or 10 am is up to me. The level of tax I pay is dependant on where my business is located. The price at which I sell does not have to be the same as every other bookseller in the market. But it is still a single market.
What the EU hierarchy want is not a single market where lots of different entities compete. They want one market where everything is the same, where competition within it is largely eliminated. Hence the talk by the Germans about "unfair" tax competition by the Irish over corporation tax, for instance.
On the day Boris announces his support for leave and lots of conservative leavers on the media, no one attacked David Cameron and the view was that the campaign will be fought and that David Cameron will continue as PM. Irrespective of the result that does seem logical as no one will want him walking away like Miliband did and he has always said that he will continue post the referendum. There is bound to be a new cabinet with the likes of Boris, Gove and Pritel being promoted but I do think it is the end of the careers for Villiers, Whittingdale, Grayling and above all IDS. Can anyone imagine a labour supported receiving a call from him.
"..all EU history shows that they only really listen to a population when it says No."
He's in the 2nd referendum to get a better deal camp, then.
I doubt the other EU leaders will be pleased if they are forced to go through another round of negotiations. I'm of the view this is as good as it gets.
One aspect of the next 4 months that will be interesting will be how much the campaign focuses on defence. I get the impression that your average joe public is highly unaware of the extent to which our forces are intertwined with the French right now. Its a bit of a double sword though for leave to bring it up as it invites difficult questions about how to disentangle in the event of a vote to leave.......and then you'd be into Scottish referendum territory again and the familiar Faslane debate. So I think it might not get much of a mention from both sides as there are obvious vulnerabilities on both sides of the debate.
Was this (minus the protections/review) not always the case under QMV subjects anyway?
No, currently we have a full opt-out of EMU only rules, if we vote to remain we will lose that opt-out and gain a new review process. It is a step backwards.
Could they not previously already say the rule is not EMU-only though but applied to the whole of Europe by QMV?
I don't see anything being extended to QMV that wasn't previously already.
Pre-1973 it was perfectly possible to travel to Europe without needing any sort of visa. I did it all the time as did my parents. This idea that holidays in and travel to Europe only started when we joined the EU is total cobblers.
I didn't just say holidays.
I have family who have retired to Spain. Could you retire to Spain without a visa pre-73? If I decided I wanted to live near that family I could go and stay with them visa-free and job-free and look for work there then start working there without ever dealing with hassle like a visa etc - would that have been possible pre-73?
I know others see visas as a positive thing, but I see the lack of them as positive. I'm currently on holiday posting this from Canada where my in-laws live, again I didn't need a visa to go on holiday here but I would need one to get a job here. Relocating to live by my wife's parents would be a headache in a way it isn't across Europe.
I managed to go to university in Austria before Austria joined the EC (as was). I also have spent time working in Spain and in Greece before the single market was created. From what I recall, I had to have a medical and a chest X-ray to be allowed to live in Austria and I had to register with the police in Spain. That was it.
I needed a visa to work in Spain until 1988 under their transition rules following their joining of the EU.
Boris is totally incapable of answering pentrating questions on Brexit from e.g. Andrew Neil or holding his own in a debate and he knows it. He's not going to make a fool of himself that way.
He has other more productive and endearing ways of making a fool of himself and he'll stick with those.
I suspect he knows that LEAVE will almost certainly lose. But he has positioned himself on that side, (while avoiding the difficult questions so he won't be blamed for the failure), so that he is in favour with the many outers in the Tory party membership and MPs.
As long as he can get onto the final list of two, chosen by MPS, he has a good chance of the membership rewarding him with the leadership against Osborne.
He justs needs to avoid the difficult questions and wave the flag every now and them to show he's there.
I think he must be favorite for the leadership.
I'm just trying to imagine Western foreign policy in a few years time under President Trump and Prime Minister Johnson. It doesn't bear thinking about.
"..all EU history shows that they only really listen to a population when it says No."
He's in the 2nd referendum to get a better deal camp, then.
Trouble with that column (and it's not that bad) is that it says he was internally conflicted, like the rest of the Tories, but offers no explanation as to why he took so long to declare.
Apparently Osborne and Cameron thought Gove was in the bag. When they discovered, to their horror, a few weeks ago he wasn't they had a series of meetings with him 2:1 to dissuade him, and through intermediaries.
Apparently, the sovereignty bill was supposed to be his work as Justice Secretary, but he wasn't convinced it was meaningful.
It has now been given to Oliver Letwin to pilot.
Gove's statement didn't sound as though he was on the fence at all. How could Cameron and Osborne get it so wrong?
The problem Gove faced, and he is very far from alone, is spelt out in his piece. He has great personal loyalty to DC and GO and he finds being on the opposite side from them difficult. He is of course a close personal friend. I have never met either of them but I am torn by the fact that voting Leave is likely to destroy some of the most competent and amenable (for me) government I have enjoyed in my life time. One of the questions I have to answer is whether the EU is worth this.
This Government wont be forever though, Cameron will only be around for a maximum of 3 more years. A LOT can change very quickly. Leaving the EU is more important for the future of this Country than Cameron or Osborne.
Yes, but Gove apart those in the Leave camp are massively less attractive to a socially liberal fiscally dry Tory like me. Some I would really struggle to vote for at all.
I think there are plenty of Leavers on the same side as you eg Bo Jo, Andrea Leadsom, Sarah Wollaston, Penny Mordaunt, Nadim Zahawi, Zac Goldsmith, Caroline Dinenage, Theresa Villiers.
Indeed. It is making me seriously reconsider my vote. A socially liberal, fiscally dry, open to Europe but politically sovereign Britain sounds perfect for me.
If it means the Scots sod off and we lose not just European socialist regulations but 59 socialists from Westminster then so much the better.
The problem is I can't see Leave winning. Winning my vote is very different to winning 51% of the vote and I'd rather Remain wins a landslide than by a tiny margin.
That's the first time I've heard Alistair Carmichael and David Mundell described as socialists!
Possibly the most cynical political decision since Blair went into Iraq with Bush. Johnson's late 'out' position shows just what an opportunist he is. 'Wont't share a platform with Farage' whilst sharing a 'platform' with Farage. What a complete twat he is. I suppose you shouldn't be surprised from someone who swore he wouldn't become an MP whilst being Mayor of London and then promptly became an MP. He's a proper shit.
What a pleasant second post.
I've been a member on here since the place started, Don't know why my name has changed and not made any contributions for years. But I've been reading and posting since before you. I'm sure your efforts are more valid than mine.
Don't worry about it. All the neophytes have a go at me (especially if you're pro-EU or pro-NHS) yet I too have been posting here since 2004.
If this is a measuring contest, I have also been posting since before the '05 election. Certainly not a neophyte.
Of course not but it wasn't me who referred to mjwfrome17's number of posts.
The main point was to point out it's unpleasantness
Oh come on. Calling Johnson a shit is hardly pushing it. Even you probably think he is one. Or do you think he is a man of principle that has left it to the last minute to review the renegotiation. More like a stitch up in which Johnson will be PM and Gove agrees to be Chancellor. Pair of chancers.
"..all EU history shows that they only really listen to a population when it says No."
He's in the 2nd referendum to get a better deal camp, then.
I doubt the other EU leaders will be pleased if they are forced to go through another round of negotiations. I'm of the view this is as good as it gets.
"..all EU history shows that they only really listen to a population when it says No."
He's in the 2nd referendum to get a better deal camp, then.
I doubt the other EU leaders will be pleased if they are forced to go through another round of negotiations. I'm of the view this is as good as it gets.
The first part is key for me as well. Either they went through a masquerade and are unlikely to want to do it again to maybe have us stay, or it was a genuine negotiation, they genuinely think it was a fair deal, and are not going to go through it again.
Apparently Osborne and Cameron thought Gove was in the bag. When they discovered, to their horror, a few weeks ago he wasn't they had a series of meetings with him 2:1 to dissuade him, and through intermediaries.
Apparently, the sovereignty bill was supposed to be his work as Justice Secretary, but he wasn't convinced it was meaningful.
It has now been given to Oliver Letwin to pilot.
Gove's statement didn't sound as though he was on the fence at all. How could Cameron and Osborne get it so wrong?
The problem Gove faced, and he is very far from alone, is spelt out in his piece. He has great personal loyalty to DC and GO and he finds being on the opposite side from them difficult. He is of course a close personal friend. I have never met either of them but I am torn by the fact that voting Leave is likely to destroy some of the most competent and amenable (for me) government I have enjoyed in my life time. One of the questions I have to answer is whether the EU is worth this.
This Government wont be forever though, Cameron will only be around for a maximum of 3 more years. A LOT can change very quickly. Leaving the EU is more important for the future of this Country than Cameron or Osborne.
Yes, but Gove apart those in the Leave camp are massively less attractive to a socially liberal fiscally dry Tory like me. Some I would really struggle to vote for at all.
I think there are plenty of Leavers on the same side as you eg Bo Jo, Andrea Leadsom, Sarah Wollaston, Penny Mordaunt, Nadim Zahawi, Zac Goldsmith, Caroline Dinenage, Theresa Villiers.
Indeed. It is making me seriously reconsider my vote. A socially liberal, fiscally dry, open to Europe but politically sovereign Britain sounds perfect for me.
If it means the Scots sod off and we lose not just European socialist regulations but 59 socialists from Westminster then so much the better.
The problem is I can't see Leave winning. Winning my vote is very different to winning 51% of the vote and I'd rather Remain wins a landslide than by a tiny margin.
So, if Leave look like winning, you'll consider voting Leave?
I doubt you are alone, but someone has to be first.
My view is that a close Remain result would be necessary just to get the EU to keep to the terms of the minuscule deal "as is".
Apparently Osborne and Cameron thought Gove was in the bag. When they discovered, to their horror, a few weeks ago he wasn't they had a series of meetings with him 2:1 to dissuade him, and through intermediaries.
Apparently, the sovereignty bill was supposed to be his work as Justice Secretary, but he wasn't convinced it was meaningful.
It has now been given to Oliver Letwin to pilot.
Gove's statement didn't sound as though he was on the fence at all. How could Cameron and Osborne get it so wrong?
The problem Gove faced, and he is very far from alone, is spelt out in his piece. He has great personal loyalty to DC and GO and he finds being on the opposite side from them difficult. He is of course a close personal friend. I have never met either of them but I am torn by the fact that voting Leave is likely to destroy some of the most competent and amenable (for me) government I have enjoyed in my life time. One of the questions I have to answer is whether the EU is worth this.
This Government wont be forever though, Cameron will only be around for a maximum of 3 more years. A LOT can change very quickly. Leaving the EU is more important for the future of this Country than Cameron or Osborne.
Yes, but Gove apart those in the Leave camp are massively less attractive to a socially liberal fiscally dry Tory like me. Some I would really struggle to vote for at all.
I think there are plenty of Leavers on the same side as you eg Bo Jo, Andrea Leadsom, Sarah Wollaston, Penny Mordaunt, Nadim Zahawi, Zac Goldsmith, Caroline Dinenage, Theresa Villiers.
Indeed. It is making me seriously reconsider my vote. A socially liberal, fiscally dry, open to Europe but politically sovereign Britain sounds perfect for me.
If it means the Scots sod off and we lose not just European socialist regulations but 59 socialists from Westminster then so much the better.
The problem is I can't see Leave winning. Winning my vote is very different to winning 51% of the vote and I'd rather Remain wins a landslide than by a tiny margin.
That's the first time I've heard Alistair Carmichael and David Mundell described as socialists!
Sorry I was thinking there were 60 MPs in total. 58 then. You may not have heard Carmichael called that before but if he's whipped by Farron then it seems a suitable epithet.
Surely a single market requires a single set of rules equally applied?
No. Why should it? You don't have the same VAT rates or the same income tax rates or the same corporation tax rates. The same opening and closing hours. The same rules on whether you are allowed overdrafts or not. The same rules on pensions. The same warranties sold with the same products. The same prices for everything.
The idea that the single market means that everything must be the same is the approach of the tidy bureaucrat who plans something out in theory with scant regard for the real messy world.
Crucially, why should those countries which are not in the eurozone have their finance sector governed by the eurozone?
If you are saying that different rules should be applied in different parts of the market, that is quite distant from a single market. It is of course reasonable to argue that a single market is not a good idea.
No. It's what we have now. I can set up a bookselling business here and sell to French, Italian and German readers and others across the EU. I can do that because of the single market. Whether I choose to start work at 6 am or 10 am is up to me. The level of tax I pay is dependant on where my business is located. The price at which I sell does not have to be the same as every other bookseller in the market. But it is still a single market.
What the EU hierarchy want is not a single market where lots of different entities compete. They want one market where everything is the same, where competition within it is largely eliminated. Hence the talk by the Germans about "unfair" tax competition by the Irish over corporation tax, for instance.
Fox is a public sector worker, albeit a senior and very important one, but this post alone shows he had no idea what happens in the world the rest of us have to deal with.
It's hard to see Boris playing a frontline role in the Leave campaign after penning that column. He's not a convinced Outer, is he? No wonder he doesn't want to debate.
On the day Boris announces his support for leave and lots of conservative leavers on the media, no one attacked David Cameron and the view was that the campaign will be fought and that David Cameron will continue as PM. Irrespective of the result that does seem logical as no one will want him walking away like Miliband did and he has always said that he will continue post the referendum. There is bound to be a new cabinet with the likes of Boris, Gove and Pritel being promoted but I do think it is the end of the careers for Villiers, Whittingdale, Grayling and above all IDS. Can anyone imagine a labour supported receiving a call from him.
I not only think there is zero chance of Cameron staying on if Leave wins the vote but what's more I would be very surprised if Gove IDS and Grayling survive in cabinet until the vote.
"..all EU history shows that they only really listen to a population when it says No."
He's in the 2nd referendum to get a better deal camp, then.
I doubt the other EU leaders will be pleased if they are forced to go through another round of negotiations. I'm of the view this is as good as it gets.
Who knows?
I think the shock to the collective amour propre of the EU class will be enormous. Who knows what will happen then? The idea that all the other states will just shrug their shoulders and carry on as normal does not seem plausible to me. A big country, one of the biggest contributors, with a broadly successful economy will have turned round and waved two fingers at the EU after 40 years...... Not at all easy to tell what the repercussions will be, either for us or for the EU.
But if further negotiations are needed then that is what the leaders will have to do. They are there to serve us not be our masters and it's about bloody time they were reminded of this fact.
So, if Leave look like winning, you'll consider voting Leave?
I doubt you are alone, but someone has to be first.
My view is that a close Remain result would be necessary just to get the EU to keep to the terms of the minuscule deal "as is".
A landslide would be a licence to ignore it.
Yes. My thinking is in a state of flux but going from committed Remain in the past to undecided leaning Remain right now.
If I knew for 100% certain that I was casting the winning vote then currently I'd vote Leave. I'd rather Leave won by 1 than Remain did.
If I thought it was a 50-50 shot then I'd be far more likely to vote Leave than I am now.
If as I currently think Leave is unlikely to get far above 40% then I'd rather not push them higher and help drag this lost cause out even further.
I'm pleased you are reconsidering.
It's probably a 35% chance of a Leave victory, right now, but that's much higher than the odds for a Conservative Majority were in GE2015 only hours before it happened.
Superlative 141 break from Ronnie to close out the Welsh Open 9-5. Surely there must be some more snooker fans apart from me on PB?
I lived opposite ex Irish Open champion Darren Morgan for a few years. He gave me free tickets to watch the Welsh Open final between the late Paul Hunter and Ken Doherty years ago.
Have you seen the new BBC film, The Rack Pack? I really enjoyed it; a funny, poignant look at the snooker glory years and the demise of people's champion Alex Higgins, who eventually died potless and alone. It's on Sky Anytime.
Yes I have - the characters are great, particularly for Davis, Hearn and Higgins. I regret never seeing Paul Hunter play live, that was tragic that he was lost so early, his 3 Masters victories were all amazing comebacks in their own ways.
It's hard to see Boris playing a frontline role in the Leave campaign after penning that column. He's not a convinced Outer, is he? No wonder he doesn't want to debate.
His father is a europhile, as is his brother. Not sure about his sister. No doubt family was a factor in this, which is why he looks so sheepish.
I think (being generous to him) he doesn't want us to turn our back on the EU entirely, but also thinks the deal was weak.
If there was a genuine renegotiation along the lines of Bloomberg or FreshStart he'd have definitely stayed but, on balance and with his career options being as they are, Leave pipped it.
But he can't just write a column or two and hide in the bushes, now. He's made his bed and he has to lie in it.
Surely a single market requires a single set of rules equally applied?
No. Why should it? You don't have the same VAT rates or the
If you are saying that different rules should be applied in different parts of the market, that is quite distant from a single market. It is of course reasonable to argue that a single market is not a good idea.
No. It's what we have now. I can set up a bookselling business here and sell to French, Italian and German readers and others across the EU. I can do that because of the single market. Whether I choose to start work at 6 am or 10 am is up to me. The level of tax I pay is dependant on where my business is located. The price at which I sell does not have to be the same as every other bookseller in the market. But it is still a single market.
What the EU hierarchy want is not a single market where lots of different entities compete. They want one market where everything is the same, where competition within it is largely eliminated. Hence the talk by the Germans about "unfair" tax competition by the Irish over corporation tax, for instance.
The removal of non-tarriff barriers in services has been one of the longstanding goals of the single market, and these are always contentious. Take animal husbandry rules for bacon for example. Is this a non-tarriff barrier or a legitimate British concern?
Issues relating to services including financial services are similar, and one reason why we should remain where our voice can be heard.
If the EZ can impose its rules over our objections, then how much easier when we are outside the EU?
On the day Boris announces his support for leave and lots of conservative leavers on the media, no one attacked David Cameron and the view was that the campaign will be fought and that David Cameron will continue as PM. Irrespective of the result that does seem logical as no one will want him walking away like Miliband did and he has always said that he will continue post the referendum. There is bound to be a new cabinet with the likes of Boris, Gove and Pritel being promoted but I do think it is the end of the careers for Villiers, Whittingdale, Grayling and above all IDS. Can anyone imagine a labour supported receiving a call from him.
I not only think there is zero chance of Cameron staying on if Leave wins the vote but what's more I would be very surprised if Gove IDS and Grayling survive in cabinet until the vote.
Teresa Villiers is the most vulnerable. Apparently there have been calls for her resignation from Northern Ireland where 3 in 1 support the EU together with 81% of business
Apparently Osborne and Cameron thought Gove was in the bag. When they discovered, to their horror, a few weeks ago he wasn't they had a series of meetings with him 2:1 to dissuade him, and through intermediaries.
Apparently, the sovereignty bill was supposed to be his work as Justice Secretary, but he wasn't convinced it was meaningful.
It has now been given to Oliver Letwin to pilot.
Gove's statement didn't sound as though he was on the fence at all. How could Cameron and Osborne get it so wrong?
The problem Gove faced, and he is very far from alone, is spelt out in his piece. He has great personal loyalty to DC and GO and he finds being on the opposite side from them difficult. He is of course a close personal friend. I have never met either of them but I am torn by the fact that voting Leave is likely to destroy some of the most competent and amenable (for me) government I have enjoyed in my life time. One of the questions I have to answer is whether the EU is worth this.
This Government wont be forever though, Cameron will only be around for a maximum of 3 more years. A LOT can change very quickly. Leaving the EU is more important for the future of this Country than Cameron or Osborne.
Yes, but Gove apart those in the Leave camp are massively less attractive to a socially liberal fiscally dry Tory like me. Some I would really struggle to vote for at all.
I think there are plenty of Leavers on the same side as you eg Bo Jo, Andrea Leadsom, Sarah Wollaston, Penny Mordaunt, Nadim Zahawi, Zac Goldsmith, Caroline Dinenage, Theresa Villiers.
Indeed. It is making me seriously reconsider my vote. A socially liberal, fiscally dry, open to Europe but politically sovereign Britain sounds perfect for me.
If it means the Scots sod off and we lose not just European socialist regulations but 59 socialists from Westminster then so much the better.
The problem is I can't see Leave winning. Winning my vote is very different to winning 51% of the vote and I'd rather Remain wins a landslide than by a tiny margin.
A landslide would be a licence to ignore it.
A landslide for remain would be a recipe for revenge by our European partners. First up would be what's left of our rebate imo.
OK I feel like facing a dilemma that I never imagined and genuinely no longer know how to vote or who to support. I'm feeling turned off by everyone.
I can't stand the argument to stay in the EU so that Parliament can't decide on social issues and we keep unproductive socialist 'rights'. Parliament should be sovereign. I can't stand the argument to leave the EU to stop immigration, I think reciprocal free movement between developed economies is a good thing.
I've despised "obsessed about Europe" Tories since the 90's. I couldn't stand IDS or Redwood. I could never imagine wanting to Leave. But Gove's leave argument was very convincing and well written and I really am not sure whether or why I want to Remain anymore.
Ultimately I am currently thinking that the absolute worst case scenario is a narrow Remain win that keeps this like an open sore. Better either a Remain landslide (over 60%) or any Leave victory that makes Parliament sovereign and closes this once and for all. I'm genuinely no longer sure which I prefer though.
Feels very weird not to be sure how to vote during a campaign.
Vote Leave, then. We should be free to determine what we want. I suspect we will end up in EFTA anyway, meaning that there will be a reasonable amount of immigration in any event
@tnewtondunn: Boris: the plot thickens. Strong suggestion in his Telegraph column he'll Vote Leave for a better deal to Remain; https://t.co/m3XtoWcyEH
BoJo has managed to shoot himself in the foot with his first act
"..all EU history shows that they only really listen to a population when it says No."
He's in the 2nd referendum to get a better deal camp, then.
I doubt the other EU leaders will be pleased if they are forced to go through another round of negotiations. I'm of the view this is as good as it gets.
Who knows?
I think the shock to the collective amour propre of the EU class will be enormous. Who knows what will happen then? The idea that all the other states will just shrug their shoulders and carry on as normal does not seem plausible to me. A big country, one of the biggest contributors, with a broadly successful economy will have turned round and waved two fingers at the EU after 40 years...... Not at all easy to tell what the repercussions will be, either for us or for the EU.
But if further negotiations are needed then that is what the leaders will have to do. They are there to serve us not be our masters and it's about bloody time they were reminded of this fact.
Was this (minus the protections/review) not always the case under QMV subjects anyway?
No. The French (I understand it was they who were driving it) have managed to get a real win on this one with the agreement now referring for the first time to a single rulebook applying to all countries in or out of the Eurozone.
In return we get to say please don't do that. And they get to ignore us if they want.
@JananGanesh: Have read the Boris column twice. If that's a case for actual exit - as opposed to leverage for another negotiation - then I'm a Dutchman.
@tnewtondunn: Boris: the plot thickens. Strong suggestion in his Telegraph column he'll Vote Leave for a better deal to Remain; https://t.co/m3XtoWcyEH
BoJo has managed to shoot himself in the foot with his first act
Boris appears to be advocating doing the hokey cokey...
Superlative 141 break from Ronnie to close out the Welsh Open 9-5. Surely there must be some more snooker fans apart from me on PB?
I lived opposite ex Irish Open champion Darren Morgan for a few years. He gave me free tickets to watch the Welsh Open final between the late Paul Hunter and Ken Doherty years ago.
Have you seen the new BBC film, The Rack Pack? I really enjoyed it; a funny, poignant look at the snooker glory years and the demise of people's champion Alex Higgins, who eventually died potless and alone. It's on Sky Anytime.
Yes I have - the characters are great, particularly for Davis, Hearn and Higgins. I regret never seeing Paul Hunter play live, that was tragic that he was lost so early, his 3 Masters victories were all amazing comebacks in their own ways.
Yeah was great characterisation..I really enjoyed Barry Hearn. Jimmy White was good too!
"..all EU history shows that they only really listen to a population when it says No."
He's in the 2nd referendum to get a better deal camp, then.
I doubt the other EU leaders will be pleased if they are forced to go through another round of negotiations. I'm of the view this is as good as it gets.
I think he is on a hiding to nothing. Did the Belgians get their 'no second chances' clause into the agreement?
Was this (minus the protections/review) not always the case under QMV subjects anyway?
No, currently we have a full opt-out of EMU only rules, if we vote to remain we will lose that opt-out and gain a new review process. It is a step backwards.
Could they not previously already say the rule is not EMU-only though but applied to the whole of Europe by QMV?
I don't see anything being extended to QMV that wasn't previously already.
Yes, they could and indeed have in the past done that, but we are now subject to the EMU single rule book where we were previous not.
"..all EU history shows that they only really listen to a population when it says No."
He's in the 2nd referendum to get a better deal camp, then.
I doubt the other EU leaders will be pleased if they are forced to go through another round of negotiations. I'm of the view this is as good as it gets.
Who knows?
I think the shock to the collective amour propre of the EU class will be enormous. Who knows what will happen then? The idea that all the other states will just shrug their shoulders and carry on as normal does not seem plausible to me. A big country, one of the biggest contributors, with a broadly successful economy will have turned round and waved two fingers at the EU after 40 years...... Not at all easy to tell what the repercussions will be, either for us or for the EU.
If I truly believed the collective body of EU bureaucrats and the leaders who support them were capable of reform, under any circumstance, I would still be a Remainer. I can picture some being willing to take another look at a whole range of issues in panic as they realise we are heading for the exit, but I don't think collectively they would be capable of agreeing that as a position, especially as sizable portions of their populations would be telling us to get stuffed, even if their politicians told them losing us for real would be worth extra concessions (if not to get us to change our minds, which would be to late to achieve I think, then at least to prevent the possibility of others joining us). We already hear ad naseum that the EU is sick of us whining, and there's a reason for that - even if it is an exaggeration, their populations support the EU and its current path, and most don't like how far we push even on the points they have sympathy on, so if we left, chances are just as high they would double down on things people don't like and dare others to join us in the exit as they would be to try to fix things to stop the contagion
So while they won't shrug and move on like nothing happens, even if some of them think they could, I just do not see how any action they would be able to take would change things significantly. It's in its bones.
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@KayaMarArt: @MrHarryCole https://t.co/05zRHYZgfg
Do NOT click on the link. You have been warned
The idea that the single market means that everything must be the same is the approach of the tidy bureaucrat who plans something out in theory with scant regard for the real messy world.
Crucially, why should those countries which are not in the eurozone have their finance sector governed by the eurozone?
In 134
ND 55
Out 141
Grand Total 330
And about 55% of the backbenchers are for Leave, with another 50 MPs still to declare.
They then say that if they bring forward a proposal under QMV which a non Eurozone country disagrees with then the objecting country has the right to be heard and make their case against the legislation. They emphasise this is time limited so the legislation cannot be held up for long by the objection.
Once the country has made its objection ... the legislation then passes by QMV just as it would have without an objection. There is no way for a non Eurozone country to stop legislatio they object to.
This was made clear in the Open Europe briefing this morning and is plain to see in the agreement.
He can't afford to piss off Tories "who have no-where else to go" by stinging their pensions.
Not this year.
@GraemeDemianyk: Two weeks ago, Boris Johnson said Brexit would 'divert energy from real problems of country' https://t.co/PubVypuHFA https://t.co/MwGmh1SCyq
More like a £66 billion UK deficit on goods and services with the EU during the last year:
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/datasets-and-tables/data-selector.html?cdid=L86I&dataset=pnbp&table-id=C
Compared with a £33 billion UK surplus on goods and services with the rest of the world:
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/datasets-and-tables/data-selector.html?cdid=L86J&dataset=pnbp&table-id=C
I'm capable of thinking for myself and expressing my own opinion.
Why not give it a try ?
"George Osborne planning to abolish tax-free lump sum on retirement incomes, claims former minister"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/georgeosborne/12167084/George-Osborne-will-abolish-pension-perk-in-tax-bombshell-claims-former-minister.html
Obviously they are briefing awful ideas so when the inevitable new raid comes it won't seem so bad.
Have you seen the new BBC film, The Rack Pack? I really enjoyed it; a funny, poignant look at the snooker glory years and the demise of people's champion Alex Higgins, who eventually died potless and alone. It's on Sky Anytime.
The chap next door to No 10 is supposed to be such a clever strategist.
I also have spent time working in Spain and in Greece before the single market was created.
From what I recall, I had to have a medical and a chest X-ray to be allowed to live in Austria and I had to register with the police in Spain. That was it.
I was unfortunate that I didn't vote for anyone who has a responsibility for anything because my party didn't win so I'm as happy with a European I didn't vote for as as I would be with anyone else.
Different class.
I spend about 12 weeks a year watching live snooker. Great for betting
You're voting for the future of the U.K.
I merely pointed out that 66% of those in the parliamentary Conservative Party who favour Remain are in Government.
I leave others to draw their own conclusions.
But to do that this year would be courageous.
Had a punt on Trump, Boris and EU ref
They make a £66bn profit out of us - we are a fantastic customer - and still they won't meet our needs.
Put the money on the line.
If it means the Scots sod off and we lose not just European socialist regulations but 59 socialists from Westminster then so much the better.
The problem is I can't see Leave winning. Winning my vote is very different to winning 51% of the vote and I'd rather Remain wins a landslide than by a tiny margin.
What the EU hierarchy want is not a single market where lots of different entities compete. They want one market where everything is the same, where competition within it is largely eliminated. Hence the talk by the Germans about "unfair" tax competition by the Irish over corporation tax, for instance.
He's in the 2nd referendum to get a better deal camp, then.
I don't see anything being extended to QMV that wasn't previously already.
He has other more productive and endearing ways of making a fool of himself and he'll stick with those.
I suspect he knows that LEAVE will almost certainly lose. But he has positioned himself on that side, (while avoiding the difficult questions so he won't be blamed for the failure), so that he is in favour with the many outers in the Tory party membership and MPs.
As long as he can get onto the final list of two, chosen by MPS, he has a good chance of the membership rewarding him with the leadership against Osborne.
He justs needs to avoid the difficult questions and wave the flag every now and them to show he's there.
I think he must be favorite for the leadership.
I'm just trying to imagine Western foreign policy in a few years time under President Trump and Prime Minister Johnson. It doesn't bear thinking about.
Immigration hardly mentioned, no talk of restricting free movement.
I doubt you are alone, but someone has to be first.
My view is that a close Remain result would be necessary just to get the EU to keep to the terms of the minuscule deal "as is".
A landslide would be a licence to ignore it.
£66bn trade & services deficit + UK tourism deficit with EU + UK net contribution to EU
Its probably approaching £100bn per year. And growing.
If I knew for 100% certain that I was casting the winning vote then currently I'd vote Leave. I'd rather Leave won by 1 than Remain did.
If I thought it was a 50-50 shot then I'd be far more likely to vote Leave than I am now.
If as I currently think Leave is unlikely to get far above 40% then I'd rather not push them higher and help drag this lost cause out even further.
But if further negotiations are needed then that is what the leaders will have to do. They are there to serve us not be our masters and it's about bloody time they were reminded of this fact.
It's probably a 35% chance of a Leave victory, right now, but that's much higher than the odds for a Conservative Majority were in GE2015 only hours before it happened.
Still glad he's added weight to VoteLeave
I think (being generous to him) he doesn't want us to turn our back on the EU entirely, but also thinks the deal was weak.
If there was a genuine renegotiation along the lines of Bloomberg or FreshStart he'd have definitely stayed but, on balance and with his career options being as they are, Leave pipped it.
But he can't just write a column or two and hide in the bushes, now. He's made his bed and he has to lie in it.
Or BJWNBPM.
Issues relating to services including financial services are similar, and one reason why we should remain where our voice can be heard.
If the EZ can impose its rules over our objections, then how much easier when we are outside the EU?
First up would be what's left of our rebate imo.
If someone tries to sell you defective goods, you send them back - no matter how well presented they are
BoJo has managed to shoot himself in the foot with his first act
I really don't think they've any idea how serious we are.
Maybe Boris joining the Leave team will give them a jolt, but I am doubtful.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-35625595
In return we get to say please don't do that. And they get to ignore us if they want.
So while they won't shrug and move on like nothing happens, even if some of them think they could, I just do not see how any action they would be able to take would change things significantly. It's in its bones.