Maybe it's just me, but I hope that ministers haven't been deciding which way to lean based on how it would impact their leadership prospects. Country first and all that.
"No, the country comes first!" - Liz Kendall, 2015.
No one in the so Called Calais Jungle should be given a free ride..let them get in the queue and go through the proper channels..I want to know who we are letting in and why.. This is a French problem
Say Remain win and Cameron has to give Boris a key Cabinet post so as not to appear petty, presumably we will be back to the Blair/Brown situation of the guys at the top pretending to make nice while all the while scheming against each other, a far cry from the mostly harmonious top team we've had (even considering the Coalition) for some time.
At least with a Leave win they'll end up united again. Eventually.
A Leave win is almost guaranteed to unite the Tories because there will be no EU membership anymore to argue about staying or leaving.
I suppose a tiny number of malcontents may remain arguing for us to re-join, or up the ante on integration, and they will be tolerated but ignored.
A bit like the number of pro-euro Tories left now, which you can count on the fingers of one hand.
To all those on PB who think the Tories are done for over the EU Ref..they could split..engage in bloody warfare..eat each others dead bodies on the battlefield..crap them out..eat them again.. crap them out... and still beat Corbyn in 2020
This is true.
The really big civil war may still be to come though given that there is no agreed Brexit strategy. Do all Tory Outers have the same aims?
No more than all remainers would have the same aims I should think.
But Brexit would have to be negotiated immediately. What will the position be on freedom of movement, for example? We know what it will be if we stay. Boris dors not seem to have a problem with it and wants a free trade deal with the EU that has more protection for the City, which also supports free movement. Is that what we get if he is PM? Does the Tory right support that, let alone UKIP?
I think in the end it comes down to just two options on the LEAVE side:
EFTA/EEA membership with the acceptance of freedom of movement Completely out with a bilateral trade agreement with the EU which does not include freedom of movement.
For all the debate and discussion those are the two basic options.
I know which one I prefer and I kind of assume that any sensible government after a LEAVE vote would feel the same. Given that after a LEAVE vote we will have almost 4 more years of Tory government which is overwhelmingly in favour of the EEA route over complete withdrawal I would think it a string possibility that that will be the eventual outcome.
EDIT: UKIP would be an irrelevance. Their one MP in Parliament favours the EEA route. They could shout and scream but in the end they would have no power.
Ken Clark or Boris? Everyone loves a clown but unless people treat this referendum as a trip to the circus when it comes to trusting the judgement of the respective sides the amiable and always reasonable Ken will trump Boris every day of the week.
Alistaire Meeks is right. The team line-ups look like Respected Public Figures V The Mavericks and the more high profile chancers like Boris that join the more oddball the Maverics seem.
The Maastricht Rebels were a perfect template for this. All we remember is a man in a funny striped jacket and a strange short lady surrounded by some seriously odd grinning blokes. I daresay they were all serious but collectively they came across as a freak-show
This isn't a reflection on the wit and wisdom of Boris it's just that most people see him as a joke. Joining a team with players seen as weird and even slightly sinister like Gove Farage IDS and Galloway makes them collectively look like Maastricht Rebels MK2
At the end of the day referendums are one on the issues not personalities, see Scotland
Support for Scottiah Independence started it's late surge in the Polling following Salmond's demolition job on Darling in the second debate.
Who knows what might have been if Salmond hadn't been utter pish in the first debate.
Ken Clark or Boris? Everyone loves a clown but unless people treat this referendum as a trip to the circus when it comes to trusting the judgement of the respective sides the amiable and always reasonable Ken will trump Boris every day of the week.
Alistaire Meeks is right. The team line-ups look like Respected Public Figures V The Mavericks and the more high profile chancers like Boris that join the more oddball the Maverics seem.
The Maastricht Rebels were a perfect template for this. All we remember is a man in a funny striped jacket and a strange short lady surrounded by some seriously odd grinning blokes. I daresay they were all serious but collectively they came across as a freak-show
This isn't a reflection on the wit and wisdom of Boris it's just that most people see him as a joke. Joining a team with players seen as weird and even slightly sinister like Gove Farage IDS and Galloway makes them collectively look like Maastricht Rebels MK2
At the end of the day referendums are one on the issues not personalities, see Scotland
I think that's right if the choice is relatively straightforward like the Scottish one. This is far more complex and under these circumstances voters will by and large be influenced by who is making the argument. Rather like a general election.
Scotland was hardly simple either, see the endless arguments over the currency and oil. It is more a gut feeling in the end which decides
Excellent point about all the scare stories which the Europhiles used when campaigning to join the Euro around the millenium. I hope that the leave campaign has been working overtime to fish out all those quotes from everyone wishing to remain in this time - there would be a wealth of material from Blair, Clarke, Heseltine, Ashdown, Clegg, the BBC's favourite Shirley Williams and others no doubt - that will pull them down a peg or two straighaway.
Very disappointing stuff from Neil Robertson so far this evening - Ronnie hasn't been playing great today, but Robertson has handed the last 5 frames to Ronnie on a plate from being 5-2 up - poor.
Does anyone remember that program on Channel 4 about the first 100 days of a UKIP government? Are they going to do another about the first 100 days ater a vote to leave the EU? A general feeling of jollity in the nation, street parties, etc, the devious (deviant) Europhiles packing their bags to go live in the EU - go on Channel 4 and Jon Snow, you know you want to!
While there would be hope in the air, there would also be trepidation.
I think in reality we would be bogged down in trade talks for years.
Would it be that hard to pull the EFTA agreements off the shelf, approach the same partners they have, strike the same/similar deals - except with the EU?
The easiest, and simplest, option is for us to go "Full EFTA". That is, we'd rejoin EFTA, and with it all of its existing trade agreements - with the EU, Canada, etc.
The next easiest would be for us to go the Swiss route, and negotiate bilateral treaties with the EU like Switzerland has done. This would be harder, as there there would be a lot of 'one on one' discussions with the EU, and it could take a long, long time.
The EEA agreements list all the member states individually. Would our withdrawal from the EU necessarily annul the EEA agreement that we're already party to? It doesn't seem obvious that we could be expelled from the EEA if we wished to remain part of it on the same terms.
On a technical basis are we listed as an EEA member in our own rights and not as part of the EU?
I don't believe so, no. But this is a grey area, and one that Richard Tyndall has been doing a lot of work on.
One of the advantages for Leave is that they have a whole menu of options for post-Brexit, while Remain has only the substandard deal to offer. Leave offers a lot of options, so if you don't like one they have others on the table.
Yes. The EEA / EFTA / NAFTA / just USA / Commonwealth / Empire....... / link with Mars
You'd never imagine from the puddles on the floor being left by Remainers here that we weren't even in this ridiculous organisation until 1973.
1973 - let me think. Ted Heath took us into Europe. Thatcher then brought us the Single European Act 1987 which introduced QMV. Major signed the Maastricht Treaty.
If Leave wins, my money would be on Boris as PM and Gove as Foreign Secretary. Perhaps Patel as Home Secretary. Maybe even Andrea Leadsom as Chancellor.
You'd need Leavers doing the biggest jobs during the renegotiation.
There would be a reconciliation reshuffle, with Remainers being brought into the cabinet too, but Osborne and May would be toast.
Gove is the man I'd want batting for Britain in the exit negotiations.
Say Remain win and Cameron has to give Boris a key Cabinet post so as not to appear petty, presumably we will be back to the Blair/Brown situation of the guys at the top pretending to make nice while all the while scheming against each other, a far cry from the mostly harmonious top team we've had (even considering the Coalition) for some time.
At least with a Leave win they'll end up united again. Eventually.
A Leave win is almost guaranteed to unite the Tories because there will be no EU membership anymore to argue about staying or leaving.
I suppose a tiny number of malcontents may remain arguing for us to re-join, or up the ante on integration, and they will be tolerated but ignored.
A bit like the number of pro-euro Tories left now, which you can count on the fingers of one hand.
It would be the dawn of a thousand years of Tory unity! Glorious.
No one in the so Called Calais Jungle should be given a free ride..let them get in the queue and go through the proper channels..I want to know who we are letting in and why.. This is a French problem
Joining efta eea means no substantive change to where we are now. This is no really bad thing, we pull out of all the eu Parliament suff, put Farage out of a job and send him on his way to the Big Brother House and Strictly Come Dancing, and stay in the single market and free movement of labour and continue to implement the EUs regulations. Efta even has its own court to rule over its members, based in Luxembourg.
I'm not suggesting that we join EFTA; I'm suggesting we use their agreements as base documents and then seek to mirror their trade agreements in bi-lateral negotiations with their existing partners.
With the EU we would do that but reject their social policy demands.I'm unconvinced that the EU would seek trade barriers as a price for removing EU social impositions, as they make a big profit from our existing arrangement.
Like many other leavers.on here you appear to have taken complete leave of your senses.
To all those on PB who think the Tories are done for over the EU Ref..they could split..engage in bloody warfare..eat each others dead bodies on the battlefield..crap them out..eat them again.. crap them out... and still beat Corbyn in 2020
This is true.
The really big civil war may still be to come though given that there is no agreed Brexit strategy. Do all Tory Outers have the same aims?
No more than all remainers would have the same aims I should think.
But Brexit would have to be negotiated immediately. What will the position be on freedom of movement, for example? We know what it will be if we stay. Boris dors not seem to have a problem with it and wants a free trade deal with the EU that has more protection for the City, which also supports free movement. Is that what we get if he is PM? Does the Tory right support that, let alone UKIP?
Really you're just trolling and it sticks out a mile.
Fair enough. If you don't have an answer so be it.
No more than you do.
Post a remain vote as is likely do you stop UK relationship dead or when the Commsssion press on with ever closer union some remainers push will for joining and while others regret voting remain as it wasn't what they were promised.
Both sides have fairly broad churches and it;s pretty daft to say there is one answer which sums either side.
Hence the possibility of a major row on the Leave side over Brexit terms. I do, indeed, have no idea. Neither does anyone else. And no-one can provide a definitive answer. The day after a Remain vote we will know exactly where we are. The day after a Leave vote we will have no clue at all.
That's why we should hold a general election in the event of a Leave vote.
I agree with you on that. But the FTPA is still there.
...and is trivial to get around.
If you mean the auto-no-confidence-suicide-manoeuvre I don't think that's a goer.
Ken Clark or Boris? Everyone loves a clown but unless people treat this referendum as a trip to the circus when it comes to trusting the judgement of the respective sides the amiable and always reasonable Ken will trump Boris every day of the week.
Alistaire Meeks is right. The team line-ups look like Respected Public Figures V The Mavericks and the more high profile chancers like Boris that join the more oddball the Maverics seem.
The Maastricht Rebels were a perfect template for this. All we remember is a man in a funny striped jacket and a strange short lady surrounded by some seriously odd grinning blokes. I daresay they were all serious but collectively they came across as a freak-show
This isn't a reflection on the wit and wisdom of Boris it's just that most people see him as a joke. Joining a team with players seen as weird and even slightly sinister like Gove Farage IDS and Galloway makes them collectively look like Maastricht Rebels MK2
Everyone of those "respected public figures" said we would go to hell in a handcart if we didn't join the Euro. Not one of them has a sliver of credibility yet sycophantic idiots like you believe every word they say.
Meeks may well be a very intelligent man, but his sneering elitist attitude to anyone who disagrees with him is shows a crushingly dull spirit with no other outlook on life other than play it safe.
Have any of you Remainers got anything positive to say about the EU or will you just spend the next few months insulting anyone who disagrees with you frighteningly intellectual superior beings?
Positive parts of the EU: Free market and free trade across Europe. A British passport becomes a European passport and allows you to holiday, move, work or retire to any nation in Europe without going through a visa process first.
Under any Leave scenario (and I really do mean any) we would be able to holiday freely in Europe and have a mutual visa-waver scheme (same as with CANZUK and the US, and lots of other countries) and work for up to 3-6 months visa free.
I accept that moving and retiring freely might be up for grabs, but not if you can demonstrate self-sufficiency and meet residency criteria.
I also think free trade is almost a given. The degree to access to the single market would be up for negotiation, and probably there's a free movement trade off there.
Have any of you Remainers got anything positive to say about the EU or will you just spend the next few months insulting anyone who disagrees with you frighteningly intellectual superior beings?
Positive parts of the EU: Free market and free trade across Europe. A British passport becomes a European passport and allows you to holiday, move, work or retire to any nation in Europe without going through a visa process first.
Free market and free trade will not end, as we run a £3 billion trade deficit with them, unless of course they are so spiteful they shoot themselves in the foot,
I don't care one bit about visas, as they would need one to come here so as IDS was correct in saying, we would be safer.
I'll take on all comers tonight, any more Remainers come up with what they see as a positive?
You didn't say you wanted a debate, you said has anyone got anything positive to say rather than insults. My two points were entirely positive and had no insults, you can't say there is zero positivity if you ignore or dismiss all positive points. Plus as I said earlier this thread I no longer know how I want to vote or who I want to win.
What guarantees do we have they won't be spiteful? Especially given signing a new trade agreement requires effectively unanimous agreement. We've just seen how little Cameron has been able to win even with the threat of us leaving, while that has been taken as an argument here in favour of leave (and partially has myself too) it also underlines the real risks to getting a good agreement if we do leave. Can we guarantee the French won't be vindictive and refuse us free trade on what they would see as "unfair" terms?
As for visas, you may not care but I do. You want positivism, that is positivism even if it isn't convincing to you.
The really big civil war may still be to come though given that there is no agreed Brexit strategy. Do all Tory Outers have the same aims?
No more than all remainers would have the same aims I should think.
But Brexit would have to be negotiated immediately.
LEAVE has many policy variations within it. Starting from Little Englander to just protecting the City [ or, more precisely, giving it an unfair advantage ]
There is nothing unfair proposed.
What's wrong with giving the city an unfair advantage? Isn't it the same as a country lowering corporation tax, for instance?
There is nothing wrong with having a British Prime Minister fighting for a British sector, a profitable one.
The financial sector is not asking for an unfair advantage - or competition, as it is usually known - but not to made subject to eurozone rules when, er, we are not in the eurozone. What the other states want is to stop the city being competitive because it might show up their own failings.
Also note in some cases what this stops is individual countries having stronger rules than those proposed by the EU. So even if you think that, say, your insurers should be subject to X and Y rules (and you want to do this because this gives the public reassurance) if the EU says that only X is permitted, then you cannot do this. In other words, the EU can sometimes stop national governments providing more protection for consumers.
It's the absurdity of the one size fits all mentality and a desire to avoid any sort of competition. It's what happens when you get formulation of rules by bureaucrats who have no instinctive or any sort of understanding of free markets, competition or, indeed, the details of how this sector works at all. And what it also means is that if they make a mistake in regulation, they make it across the entire area. And if that mistake is a vital one the consequences are felt by everyone and are magnified. One size fits all regulation, when it goes wrong - and note that I say when, not if, because it will go wrong or be found wanting at some point - creates - or has the potential for creating - a systemic risk.
Surely a single market requires a single set of rules equally applied?
To all those on PB who think the Tories are done for over the EU Ref..they could split..engage in bloody warfare..eat each others dead bodies on the battlefield..crap them out..eat them again.. crap them out... and still beat Corbyn in 2020
This is true.
The really big civil war may still be to come though given that there is no agreed Brexit strategy. Do all Tory Outers have the same aims?
No more than all remainers would have the same aims I should think.
But Brexit would have to be negotiated immediately. What will the position be on freedom of movement, for example? We know what it will be if we stay. Boris dors not seem to have a problem with it and wants a free trade deal with the EU that has more protection for the City, which also supports free movement. Is that what we get if he is PM? Does the Tory right support that, let alone UKIP?
Really you're just trolling and it sticks out a mile.
Fair enough. If you don't have an answer so be it.
No more than you do.
Post a remain vote as is likely do you stop UK relationship dead or when the Commsssion press on with ever closer union some remainers push will for joining and while others regret voting remain as it wasn't what they were promised.
Both sides have fairly broad churches and it;s pretty daft to say there is one answer which sums either side.
Hence the possibility of a major row on the Leave side over Brexit terms. I do, indeed, have no idea. Neither does anyone else. And no-one can provide a definitive answer. The day after a Remain vote we will know exactly where we are. The day after a Leave vote we will have no clue at all.
That's why we should hold a general election in the event of a Leave vote.
I agree with you on that. But the FTPA is still there.
The FTPA can be repealed by a simple act of parliament.
OK Robert I'm joining you. after two days the EUref has proved to be lttle more than mindless guff on the threads.
Can we talk about the impending August implosion of capital markets instead ?
Is that the one that's signalled by the overlap of the 47 year 4 month Quebec property cycle (low rise condos only) and the length of the jail term for the proponent?
Ok. Say he wins and does give Boris a key Cabinet post then. Granted, while the early politeness and talk of retaining/promoting Leavers should Remain win are just statements of intent, given how divided the party is on the issue, it seems at least probable that will remain the strategy in a futile attempt to keep a lid on division.
Cameron isn't coming out of this stronger if Remain wins - too many Leavers will be too bitter to have that happen. Yes, that is just a guess, but the intensity of many people in Leave, and the intensity of their rubbishing of the deal Cameron made and how he presented it, will surely ensure that enough will remain(ha) pissed off enough in great enough numbers that they will need to be mollified.
True. But I think the requirement to have LEAVErs in the Cabinet post-REMAIN will not extend to Boris. There is the manner of the thing to consider, and Gove's manner of dissent was controlled and polite, wheras Boris's was disorganised, and (if the story about the text is true) rude.
Yes. The EEA / EFTA / NAFTA / just USA / Commonwealth / Empire....... / link with Mars
You'd never imagine from the puddles on the floor being left by Remainers here that we weren't even in this ridiculous organisation until 1973.
1973 - let me think. Ted Heath took us into Europe. Thatcher then brought us the Single European Act 1987 which introduced QMV. Major signed the Maastricht Treaty.
Which doesn't address his point at all, which is that there is some evidence of Britain surviving outside the EU.
On a technical basis are we listed as an EEA member in our own rights and not as part of the EU?
No, we are signatories in our capacity as EU members. The EEA agreement is basically an agreement between the three EEA countries and the EU. We'd have to agree a new treaty with the 30 other countries to join as EEA members.
Not so. We are signatories independently of our membership of the EU. Each state is a separate signatory and the EU itself signed separately as well.
Maybe it's just me, but I hope that ministers haven't been deciding which way to lean based on how it would impact their leadership prospects. Country first and all that.
"No, the country comes first!" - Liz Kendall, 2015.
Ms 4%
Are you talking about the 4% that she scored in the Labour leadership election or the 4% points that Labour's poll rating would probably be up by had she won it?
I heard most of the news today on Radio 4 and 5L, which featured long interviews with Priti Patel, IDS and Alan Johnson, with BoJo's statement thrown in.
The interesting juxtaposition was BoJo, who claimed he wants a trade deal only (may the best man win), and AJ, for whom Internationalism and solidarity were the key (Socialism at any cost)
Not the basis on which the referendum will be fought of course
I agree it's complex, but in the large view: having zero votes in QMV makes us more likely to be outvoted than having one vote in QMV, and having institutional protection in the treaties (beefed up by the renegotiation) is better than having no protection - in an EEA-style deal there would not be even a nominal requirement not to discriminate against us. So it seems to me pretty much 100% clear that the EEA route cannot possibly be better, and very probably would be worse, in this respect.
If we work on they hypothesis that the EZ countries have a pre-meeting and agree their vote the difference is zero. We are outvoted and the official meeting becomes an irrelevance.
It is possible that this will not happen, that the EZ members will not form a consolidated bloc and that we will be able to find allies within them that support our position on any particular issue. If that were the case then you would be right and it would be better to stay in.
So the gamble is whether, as they increase their fiscal co-ordination a unified position becomes the norm or the current position where we have a chance, albeit the most frequently outvoted country persists. We don't really know but I think the common position is the more likely.
My favoured options on this are in order of preference: (1) a substantially reformed EU along the lines that Cameron set out in his Bloomberg speech. Regrettably not on the table. (2) Membership of the EEA with at least as close co-operation with the EU as any EEA member has now. (3) Membership continuing as it is now taking our chances. (4) Membership outside the EEA and the single market.
To vote Leave I need to be sure of (2). I will not risk (4). I believe that to be foolish. Despite how brilliant Gove's piece was yesterday he didn't really adequately address the question of what happens next. We'll be fine is not an answer.
The astonishing thing is that as with Iraq for Labour and tuition fees for the Liberal Democrats, this is an entirely self-inflicted wound by the Conservatives.
So you think it would be right to carry on integrating without asking permission from the People?
The fact is nobody really knows what the City would look like after Brexit. Losing the single market would be a big hit to euro denominated business, probably, but there could be offsetting benefits in less aggressively socialist, controlling regulation. And the euro business might come back.
In the end, its a judgement call.
Apologies for my lack of knowledge on this bit what would happen to the EU if we left?
And given the issues around the CAP, would farming in this country benefit from Brexit?
1973 - let me think. Ted Heath took us into Europe. Thatcher then brought us the Single European Act 1987 which introduced QMV. Major signed the Maastricht Treaty.
And? My point is you're portraying leaving as a desperate search for some sort of umbrella organisation to take refuge within. The reality is all we'd be doing is returning to pre-1973 circumstances, just without rampant trades unionism and Jimmy Savile. That in itself, is not a disaster, or frankly even a misfortune.
Montie Tories' leading intellectual force (Gove) and its most popular star (Boris) have decided against PM's deal - concludes @faisalislam #skynews
Yes. These twoare major coups for Leave as they target two weak spots. Perceived lack of intellectual heft and manistream appeal. Shame they didn't get May for authority.
Wonder if May is kicking herself.....?
I'm not sure I would use the word "fluffing" in connection with Teresa May...
Have any of you Remainers got anything positive to say about the EU or will you just spend the next few months insulting anyone who disagrees with you frighteningly intellectual superior beings?
Positive parts of the EU: Free market and free trade across Europe. A British passport becomes a European passport and allows you to holiday, move, work or retire to any nation in Europe without going through a visa process first.
Free market and free trade will not end, as we run a £3 billion trade deficit with them, unless of course they are so spiteful they shoot themselves in the foot,
I don't care one bit about visas, as they would need one to come here so as IDS was correct in saying, we would be safer.
I'll take on all comers tonight, any more Remainers come up with what they see as a positive?
You didn't say you wanted a debate, you said has anyone got anything positive to say rather than insults. My two points were entirely positive and had no insults, you can't say there is zero positivity if you ignore or dismiss all positive points. Plus as I said earlier this thread I no longer know how I want to vote or who I want to win.
What guarantees do we have they won't be spiteful? Especially given signing a new trade agreement requires effectively unanimous agreement. We've just seen how little Cameron has been able to win even with the threat of us leaving, while that has been taken as an argument here in favour of leave (and partially has myself too) it also underlines the real risks to getting a good agreement if we do leave. Can we guarantee the French won't be vindictive and refuse us free trade on what they would see as "unfair" terms?
As for visas, you may not care but I do. You want positivism, that is positivism even if it isn't convincing to you.
As I said if they were spiteful it would be cutting off their nose to spite their face.
10% trade tariff on British goods? OK we will apply a reciprocal agreement on all EU imports, including Mercedes, Siemans, Renault, BMW, Citroen etc etc etc........
Like many other leavers.on here you appear to have taken complete leave of your senses.
Things are less complicated than some wish.
The speed that many nations have thrown up border controls in the Schengen area is a perfect example of how quickly people can act when they really want to.
When you are free and able to act independently, you really don't need never ending meetings with 27 separate nations to actually get things done.
It also seems to have escaped some remainers' notice that there are about 200 countries existing quite happily outside the EU.
Possibly the most cynical political decision since Blair went into Iraq with Bush. Johnson's late 'out' position shows just what an opportunist he is. 'Wont't share a platform with Farage' whilst sharing a 'platform' with Farage. What a complete twat he is. I suppose you shouldn't be surprised from someone who swore he wouldn't become an MP whilst being Mayor of London and then promptly became an MP. He's a proper shit.
Does anyone remember that program on Channel 4 about the first 100 days of a UKIP government? Are they going to do another about the first 100 days ater a vote to leave the EU? A general feeling of jollity in the nation, street parties, etc, the devious (deviant) Europhiles packing their bags to go live in the EU - go on Channel 4 and Jon Snow, you know you want to!
Actually, I suspect the first 100 days would be an orgy of hard work as (a) we would then need to work out what relationship we would have with the EU, and then after that (b) civil servants and politicians rushed to negotiate new trade deals and to draft new legislation to take over from the point when - two years later - we were officially free.
While there would be hope in the air, there would also be trepidation.
I think in reality we would be bogged down in trade talks for years.
Would it be that hard to pull the EFTA agreements off the shelf, approach the same partners they have, strike the same/similar deals - except with the EU?
With the EU, they'd have to have a rethink given their substantial profit from dealing with us.
Joining efta eea means no substantive change to where we are now. This is no really bad thing, we pull out of all the eu Parliament suff, put Farage out of a job and send him on his way to the Big Brother House and Strictly Come Dancing, and stay in the single market and free movement of labour and continue to implement the EUs regulations. Efta even has its own court to rule over its members, based in Luxembourg.
It means around 65% of the current EU legislation would no longer apply to the UK. It means our net contributions would drop from around £11 billion a year to around £2 billion as the worst case. It means we would no longer be part of the Common Fisheries Policy or the Common Agricultural policy. It means we would have our own seats with full voting rights on the WTO, UNECE and Codex along with many other international bodies where currently we cede authority to the EU It means the ECJ would no longer have the ability to reinterpret our court decisions.
He's certainly scuppered his chances of being the next PM. Or are the Tories going to continue the lunacy of the last 30 years and have a leader who is anti-EU when the country has decisively voted to remain?
Say Remain win and Cameron has to give Boris a key Cabinet post so as not to appear petty, presumably we will be back to the Blair/Brown situation of the guys at the top pretending to make nice while all the while scheming against each other, a far cry from the mostly harmonious top team we've had (even considering the Coalition) for some time.
At least with a Leave win they'll end up united again. Eventually.
A Leave win is almost guaranteed to unite the Tories because there will be no EU membership anymore to argue about staying or leaving.
I suppose a tiny number of malcontents may remain arguing for us to re-join, or up the ante on integration, and they will be tolerated but ignored.
A bit like the number of pro-euro Tories left now, which you can count on the fingers of one hand.
Surely the factions would just get tooled up for the EEA "devo-max" vs glorious separation battle?
Our relationship with the continent has been an issue for over two millenia, and I suspect that it will temain so over the forseeable future, whether in or out.
Excellent point about all the scare stories which the Europhiles used when campaigning to join the Euro around the millenium. I hope that the leave campaign has been working overtime to fish out all those quotes from everyone wishing to remain in this time - there would be a wealth of material from Blair, Clarke, Heseltine, Ashdown, Clegg, the BBC's favourite Shirley Williams and others no doubt - that will pull them down a peg or two straighaway.
Very disappointing stuff from Neil Robertson so far this evening - Ronnie hasn't been playing great today, but Robertson has handed the last 5 frames to Ronnie on a plate from being 5-2 up - poor.
Here are some from Blair:
June 13 2001 In a jointly written article with the Spanish prime minister, Jose Maria Aznar, in the Financial Times, he said the euro "is changing the face of Europe" and the European Central Bank has delivered low inflation and high growth across the continent.
He also stressed the damage done to British business by exchange rate fluctuations.
He said: "Europe's economic fundamentals are sound: sounder than they have been for over a generation.
"The EU's economies are growing and it is important to underline that they are now creating jobs in Europe faster than almost anywhere else in the developed world.
May 17 2000 During question time, the prime minister insisted he supported a statement by the then Northern Ireland secretary, Peter Mandelson, that business would continue to suffer while Britain remained outside the single currency.
February 2 2000 Mr Blair told the Commons that Tory opponents who had ruled out joining the euro in the next parliament were "foolish and backward".
June 15 1998 Mr Blair said: "The decision to launch the single currency is the first step and marks the turning point for Europe, marks stability and growth and is crucial to high levels of growth and employment."
Ken Clark or Boris? Everyone loves a clown but unless people treat this referendum as a trip to the circus when it comes to trusting the judgement of the respective sides the amiable and always reasonable Ken will trump Boris every day of the week.
Alistaire Meeks is right. The team line-ups look like Respected Public Figures V The Mavericks and the more high profile chancers like Boris that join the more oddball the Maverics seem.
The Maastricht Rebels were a perfect template for this. All we remember is a man in a funny striped jacket and a strange short lady surrounded by some seriously odd grinning blokes. I daresay they were all serious but collectively they came across as a freak-show
This isn't a reflection on the wit and wisdom of Boris it's just that most people see him as a joke. Joining a team with players seen as weird and even slightly sinister like Gove Farage IDS and Galloway makes them collectively look like Maastricht Rebels MK2
Everyone of those "respected public figures" said we would go to hell in a handcart if we didn't join the Euro. Not one of them has a sliver of credibility yet sycophantic idiots like you believe every word they say.
Meeks may well be a very intelligent man, but his sneering elitist attitude to anyone who disagrees with him is shows a crushingly dull spirit with no other outlook on life other than play it safe.
Have any of you Remainers got anything positive to say about the EU or will you just spend the next few months insulting anyone who disagrees with you frighteningly intellectual superior beings?
Positive parts of the EU: Free market and free trade across Europe. A British passport becomes a European passport and allows you to holiday, move, work or retire to any nation in Europe without going through a visa process first.
1973 - let me think. Ted Heath took us into Europe. Thatcher then brought us the Single European Act 1987 which introduced QMV. Major signed the Maastricht Treaty.
Mr. Chairman, you have invited me to speak on the subject of Britain and Europe. Perhaps I should congratulate you on your courage. If you believe some of the things said and written about my views on Europe, it must seem rather like inviting Genghis Khan to speak on the virtues of peaceful coexistence! ...The European Community is one manifestation of that European identity, but it is not the only one. We must never forget that east of the Iron Curtain, peoples who once enjoyed a full share of European culture, freedom and identity have been cut off from their roots. We shall always look on Warsaw, Prague and Budapest as great European cities...To try to suppress nationhood and concentrate power at the centre of a European conglomerate would be highly damaging and would jeopardise the objectives we seek to achieve. Europe will be stronger precisely because it has France as France, Spain as Spain, Britain as Britain, each with its own customs, traditions and identity. It would be folly to try to fit them into some sort of identikit European personality...it is ironic that just when those countries such as the Soviet Union, which have tried to run everything from the centre, are learning that success depends on dispersing power and decisions away from the centre, there are some in the Community who seem to want to move in the opposite direction. We have not successfully rolled back the frontiers of the state in Britain, only to see them re-imposed at a European level with a European super-state exercising a new dominance from Brussels.
- M. H. Thatcher - The Bruges Speech, 20 September, 1988
I agree it's complex, but in the large view: having zero votes in QMV makes us more likely to be outvoted than having one vote in QMV, and having institutional protection in the treaties (beefed up by the renegotiation) is better than having no protection - in an EEA-style deal there would not be even a nominal requirement not to discriminate against us. So it seems to me pretty much 100% clear that the EEA route cannot possibly be better, and very probably would be worse, in this respect.
If we work on they hypothesis that the EZ countries have a pre-meeting and agree their vote the difference is zero. We are outvoted and the official meeting becomes an irrelevance.
It is possible that this will not happen, that the EZ members will not form a consolidated bloc and that we will be able to find allies within them that support our position on any particular issue. If that were the case then you would be right and it would be better to stay in.
So the gamble is whether, as they increase their fiscal co-ordination a unified position becomes the norm or the current position where we have a chance, albeit the most frequently outvoted country persists. We don't really know but I think the common position is the more likely.
My favoured options on this are in order of preference: (1) a substantially reformed EU along the lines that Cameron set out in his Bloomberg speech. Regrettably not on the table. (2) Membership of the EEA with at least as close co-operation with the EU as any EEA member has now. (3) Membership continuing as it is now taking our chances. (4) Membership outside the EEA and the single market.
To vote Leave I need to be sure of (2). I will not risk (4). I believe that to be foolish. Despite how brilliant Gove's piece was yesterday he didn't really adequately address the question of what happens next. We'll be fine is not an answer.
I favour a single-market lite option with David Goodhart's suggested restrictions on free movement:
He's certainly scuppered his chances of being the next PM. Or are the Tories going to continue the lunacy of the last 30 years and have a leader who is anti-EU when the country has decisively voted to remain?
Possibly the most cynical political decision since Blair went into Iraq with Bush. Johnson's late 'out' position shows just what an opportunist he is. 'Wont't share a platform with Farage' whilst sharing a 'platform' with Farage. What a complete twat he is. I suppose you shouldn't be surprised from someone who swore he wouldn't become an MP whilst being Mayor of London and then promptly became an MP. He's a proper shit.
So you think it would be right to carry on integrating without asking permission from the People?
Provision for a referendum on a treaty change already exists. This isn't a treaty change. This is the Conservative Party trying to exorcise its own demons of its own volition.
Have any of you Remainers got anything positive to say about the EU or will you just spend the next few months insulting anyone who disagrees with you frighteningly intellectual superior beings?
Positive parts of the EU: Free market and free trade across Europe. A British passport becomes a European passport and allows you to holiday, move, work or retire to any nation in Europe without going through a visa process first.
Free market and free trade will not end, as we run a £3 billion trade deficit with them, unless of course they are so spiteful they shoot themselves in the foot,
I don't care one bit about visas, as they would need one to come here so as IDS was correct in saying, we would be safer.
I'll take on all comers tonight, any more Remainers come up with what they see as a positive?
You didn't say you wanted a debate, you said has anyone got anything positive to say rather than insults. My two points were entirely positive and had no insults, you can't say there is zero positivity if you ignore or dismiss all positive points. Plus as I said earlier this thread I no longer know how I want to vote or who I want to win.
What guarantees do we have they won't be spiteful? Especially given signing a new trade agreement requires effectively unanimous agreement. We've just seen how little Cameron has been able to win even with the threat of us leaving, while that has been taken as an argument here in favour of leave (and partially has myself too) it also underlines the real risks to getting a good agreement if we do leave. Can we guarantee the French won't be vindictive and refuse us free trade on what they would see as "unfair" terms?
As for visas, you may not care but I do. You want positivism, that is positivism even if it isn't convincing to you.
As I said if they were spiteful it would be cutting off their nose to spite their face.
10% trade tariff on British goods? OK we will apply a reciprocal agreement on all EU imports, including Mercedes, Siemans, Renault, BMW, Citroen etc etc etc........
Up to them but it will never happen
What guarantees do you have it will never happen? If the French were so concerned with insuring the Germans could sell us BMW's and Mercedes then they could have given Cameron a MUCH better deal. But they didn't, did they? They could quite easily see a spiteful deal as right politically even if it hurts economically, I don't trust the French as much as you do it seems to put economics ahead of politics.
Ken Clark or Boris? Everyone loves a clown but unless people treat this referendum as a trip to the circus when it comes to trusting the judgement of the respective sides the amiable and always reasonable Ken will trump Boris every day of the week.
Alistaire Meeks is right. The team line-ups look like Respected Public Figures V The Mavericks and the more high profile chancers like Boris that join the more oddball the Maverics seem.
The Maastricht Rebels were a perfect template for this. All we remember is a man in a funny striped jacket and a strange short lady surrounded by some seriously odd grinning blokes. I daresay they were all serious but collectively they came across as a freak-show
This isn't a reflection on the wit and wisdom of Boris it's just that most people see him as a joke. Joining a team with players seen as weird and even slightly sinister like Gove Farage IDS and Galloway makes them collectively look like Maastricht Rebels MK2
Everyone of those "respected public figures" said we would go to hell in a handcart if we didn't join the Euro. Not one of them has a sliver of credibility yet sycophantic idiots like you believe every word they say.
Meeks may well be a very intelligent man, but his sneering elitist attitude to anyone who disagrees with him is shows a crushingly dull spirit with no other outlook on life other than play it safe.
Have any of you Remainers got anything positive to say about the EU or will you just spend the next few months insulting anyone who disagrees with you frighteningly intellectual superior beings?
Positive parts of the EU: Free market and free trade across Europe. A British passport becomes a European passport and allows you to holiday, move, work or retire to any nation in Europe without going through a visa process first.
The fact is nobody really knows what the City would look like after Brexit. Losing the single market would be a big hit to euro denominated business, probably, but there could be offsetting benefits in less aggressively socialist, controlling regulation. And the euro business might come back.
In the end, its a judgement call.
Apologies for my lack of knowledge on this bit what would happen to the EU if we left?
And given the issues around the CAP, would farming in this country benefit from Brexit?
That entirely depends on what replaced it. Truth be told, there is a problem in the uk in that farms are bought by City folk for the purposes of having a place for a shoot. The result of which is that those who wish to farm have to pay completely the wrong price for land.
Apparently Osborne and Cameron thought Gove was in the bag. When they discovered, to their horror, a few weeks ago he wasn't they had a series of meetings with him 2:1 to dissuade him, and through intermediaries.
Apparently, the sovereignty bill was supposed to be his work as Justice Secretary, but he wasn't convinced it was meaningful.
What guarantees do you have it will never happen? If the French were so concerned with insuring the Germans could sell us BMW's and Mercedes then they could have given Cameron a MUCH better deal. But they didn't, did they? They could quite easily see a spiteful deal as right politically even if it hurts economically, I don't trust the French as much as you do it seems to put economics ahead of politics.
There are plenty of subtle ways of giving those within the EU an advantage against those from outside. It doesn't need to be as blunt as some large trade tariff. The French are very good at playing this game to protect their own industries.
I think this would be a more likely scenario is we voted out, that we would find especially new opportunities would be harder for British companies to fully maximize, but rather than because of EU imposes stupid rules because of our membership, it will be because the EU demands we follow some stupid rules to give us access.
Have any of you Remainers got anything positive to say about the EU or will you just spend the next few months insulting anyone who disagrees with you frighteningly intellectual superior beings?
Positive parts of the EU: Free market and free trade across Europe. A British passport becomes a European passport and allows you to holiday, move, work or retire to any nation in Europe without going through a visa process first.
Free market and free trade will not end, as we run a £3 billion trade deficit with them, unless of course they are so spiteful they shoot themselves in the foot,
I don't care one bit about visas, as they would need one to come here so as IDS was correct in saying, we would be safer.
I'll take on all comers tonight, any more Remainers come up with what they see as a positive?
You didn't say you wanted a debate, you said has anyone got anything positive to say rather than insults. My two points were entirely positive and had no insults, you can't say there is zero positivity if you ignore or dismiss all positive points. Plus as I said earlier this thread I no longer know how I want to vote or who I want to win.
What guarantees do we have they won't be spiteful? Especially given signing a new trade agreement requires effectively unanimous agreement. We've just seen how little Cameron has been able to win even with the threat of us leaving, while that has been taken as an argument here in favour of leave (and partially has myself too) it also underlines the real risks to getting a good agreement if we do leave. Can we guarantee the French won't be vindictive and refuse us free trade on what they would see as "unfair" terms?
As for visas, you may not care but I do. You want positivism, that is positivism even if it isn't convincing to you.
As I said if they were spiteful it would be cutting off their nose to spite their face.
10% trade tariff on British goods? OK we will apply a reciprocal agreement on all EU imports, including Mercedes, Siemans, Renault, BMW, Citroen etc etc etc........
Up to them but it will never happen
What guarantees do you have it will never happen? If the French were so concerned with insuring the Germans could sell us BMW's and Mercedes then they could have given Cameron a MUCH better deal. But they didn't, did they? They could quite easily see a spiteful deal as right politically even if it hurts economically, I don't trust the French as much as you do it seems to put economics ahead of politics.
Possibly the most cynical political decision since Blair went into Iraq with Bush. Johnson's late 'out' position shows just what an opportunist he is. 'Wont't share a platform with Farage' whilst sharing a 'platform' with Farage. What a complete twat he is. I suppose you shouldn't be surprised from someone who swore he wouldn't become an MP whilst being Mayor of London and then promptly became an MP. He's a proper shit.
I disagree. Nearly everything he has written about the EU since the 80s (when he started out as a Europe correspondent) has been broadly critical.
I think he would've looked more unprincipled and self-interested if he'd toed the governmental line.
The fact is nobody really knows what the City would look like after Brexit. Losing the single market would be a big hit to euro denominated business, probably, but there could be offsetting benefits in less aggressively socialist, controlling regulation. And the euro business might come back.
In the end, its a judgement call.
Apologies for my lack of knowledge on this bit what would happen to the EU if we left?
And given the issues around the CAP, would farming in this country benefit from Brexit?
British farmers would benefit post-Brexit. Look at what happened in New Zealand when farming subsidies were removed.
Say Remain win and Cameron has to give Boris a key Cabinet post so as not to appear petty, presumably we will be back to the Blair/Brown situation of the guys at the top pretending to make nice while all the while scheming against each other, a far cry from the mostly harmonious top team we've had (even considering the Coalition) for some time.
At least with a Leave win they'll end up united again. Eventually.
A Leave win is almost guaranteed to unite the Tories because there will be no EU membership anymore to argue about staying or leaving.
I suppose a tiny number of malcontents may remain arguing for us to re-join, or up the ante on integration, and they will be tolerated but ignored.
A bit like the number of pro-euro Tories left now, which you can count on the fingers of one hand.
Surely the factions would just get tooled up for the EEA "devo-max" vs glorious separation battle?
Our relationship with the continent has been an issue for over two millenia, and I suspect that it will temain so over the forseeable future, whether in or out.
I suspect full glorious separation will be a minority taste.
If there are caps and restrictions on free movement, it will be enough.
If not, the issue won't go away in the public at large, so it won't go away with the politicians either.
Possibly the most cynical political decision since Blair went into Iraq with Bush. Johnson's late 'out' position shows just what an opportunist he is. 'Wont't share a platform with Farage' whilst sharing a 'platform' with Farage. What a complete twat he is. I suppose you shouldn't be surprised from someone who swore he wouldn't become an MP whilst being Mayor of London and then promptly became an MP. He's a proper shit.
What a pleasant second post.
I've been a member on here since the place started, Don't know why my name has changed and not made any contributions for years. But I've been reading and posting since before you. I'm sure your efforts are more valid than mine.
The astonishing thing is that as with Iraq for Labour and tuition fees for the Liberal Democrats, this is an entirely self-inflicted wound by the Conservatives.
So you think it would be right to carry on integrating without asking permission from the People?
Yep, it seems a good part of the Tory Out side is focused on looking after the City and is not that concerned about limiting free movement of people. Boris is certainly in that camp, as are a few on here. They could probably get a Brexit deal done pretty quickly. Msybe it wouldn't even end up as a full Brexit. But my guess is that this would not meet with universal approval, to say the least, on the Out side.
Yes, that is correct. If we do get a Leave result, the debate will switch to whether to go for an EEA-style deal or not. Much the same arguments will apply as we are currently seeing, and I expect it will be just as contentious.
The difference is that it would probably be parliament which decides. It could get very messy, because I think a majority of MPs are (probably) likely to want the EEA route, but a lot of Leave voters would have thought they were voting for killing off free movement.
This is why leavers are liars. Cor... did I really say that?
One thing we will not be killing off is free movement. Any eu trade deal will involve free movement and I would have thought if the eu wants to protect its future negotiations with just about anybody then it would not include any benefits concessions.
Its sad that leave has reduced itself to anti immigrants and if it wins its not going to stop at the eu. The splits within it will be laid bare. Where has ukips star MP been recently? You know the one who likes immigrants and who thinks immigration is a good thing. What on earth can be the reason for his absence from the airwaves?
What guarantees do you have it will never happen? If the French were so concerned with insuring the Germans could sell us BMW's and Mercedes then they could have given Cameron a MUCH better deal. But they didn't, did they? They could quite easily see a spiteful deal as right politically even if it hurts economically, I don't trust the French as much as you do it seems to put economics ahead of politics.
@bbcnickrobinson: NB Boris spoke of "getting a better deal" NOT simply of leaving EU. Still dreaming of 2nd renegotiation & 2nd referendum (under a new PM?)
Apparently Osborne and Cameron thought Gove was in the bag. When they discovered, to their horror, a few weeks ago he wasn't they had a series of meetings with him 2:1 to dissuade him, and through intermediaries.
Apparently, the sovereignty bill was supposed to be his work as Justice Secretary, but he wasn't convinced it was meaningful.
It has now been given to Oliver Letwin to pilot.
Gove's statement didn't sound as though he was on the fence at all. How could Cameron and Osborne get it so wrong?
@bbcnickrobinson: NB Boris spoke of "getting a better deal" NOT simply of leaving EU. Still dreaming of 2nd renegotiation & 2nd referendum (under a new PM?)
The thing is there is f##k all chance we get anywhere with this approach. Getting 27 countries to agree a fundamental change just isn't going to happen, especially as no leading politician who could get power is seriously going to pull a Thatcher and say you don't meet our demands, we will take our bat and bowl home (and actually in todays world, we have a lot less to offer to make that a scary threat).
How candidates for the future leadership of the Tory party voted and which side they were on will become a litmus test. If Remain win, and the choice for Tory members is between Osborne and Boris, Boris wins hands down, his Ace card will be "I backed Brexit", even if Brexit loses.
Have any of you Remainers got anything positive to say about the EU or will you just spend the next few months insulting anyone who disagrees with you frighteningly intellectual superior beings?
Positive parts of the EU: Free market and free trade across Europe. A British passport becomes a European passport and allows you to holiday, move, work or retire to any nation in Europe without going through a visa process first.
Free market and free trade will not end, as we run a £3 billion trade deficit with them, unless of course they are so spiteful they shoot themselves in the foot,
I don't care one bit about visas, as they would need one to come here so as IDS was correct in saying, we would be safer.
I'll take on all comers tonight, any more Remainers come up with what they see as a positive?
You didn't say you wanted a debate, you said has anyone got anything positive to say rather than insults. My two points were entirely positive and had no insults, you can't say there is zero positivity if you ignore or dismiss all positive points. Plus as I said earlier this thread I no longer know how I want to vote or who I want to win.
What guarantees do we have they won't be spiteful? Especially given signing a new trade agreement requires effectively unanimous agreement. We've just seen how little Cameron has been able to win even with the threat of us leaving, while that has been taken as an argument here in favour of leave (and partially has myself too) it also underlines the real risks to getting a good agreement if we do leave. Can we guarantee the French won't be vindictive and refuse us free trade on what they would see as "unfair" terms?
As for visas, you may not care but I do. You want positivism, that is positivism even if it isn't convincing to you.
Pre-1973 it was perfectly possible to travel to Europe without needing any sort of visa. I did it all the time as did my parents. This idea that holidays in and travel to Europe only started when we joined the EU is total cobblers.
Possibly the most cynical political decision since Blair went into Iraq with Bush. Johnson's late 'out' position shows just what an opportunist he is. 'Wont't share a platform with Farage' whilst sharing a 'platform' with Farage. What a complete twat he is. I suppose you shouldn't be surprised from someone who swore he wouldn't become an MP whilst being Mayor of London and then promptly became an MP. He's a proper shit.
What a pleasant second post.
I've been a member on here since the place started, Don't know why my name has changed and not made any contributions for years. But I've been reading and posting since before you. I'm sure your efforts are more valid than mine.
Ah, my mistake. They typically aren't, but I don't go around calling people I disagree with "proper shits". Just this morning there was a discussion about how much deference we should award the PM. I don't think too much, but in the opposite direction I totally oppose people insulting others in the way you just did.
The fact is nobody really knows what the City would look like after Brexit. Losing the single market would be a big hit to euro denominated business, probably, but there could be offsetting benefits in less aggressively socialist, controlling regulation. And the euro business might come back.
In the end, its a judgement call.
Apologies for my lack of knowledge on this bit what would happen to the EU if we left?
And given the issues around the CAP, would farming in this country benefit from Brexit?
British farmers would benefit post-Brexit. Look at what happened in New Zealand when farming subsidies were removed.
Truth be told, there is a problem in the uk in that farms are bought by City folk for the purposes of having a place for a shoot. The result of which is that those who wish to farm have to pay completely the wrong price for land.
Of all the market distortions of land prices in this country that's possibly the least important.
Possibly the most cynical political decision since Blair went into Iraq with Bush. Johnson's late 'out' position shows just what an opportunist he is. 'Wont't share a platform with Farage' whilst sharing a 'platform' with Farage. What a complete twat he is. I suppose you shouldn't be surprised from someone who swore he wouldn't become an MP whilst being Mayor of London and then promptly became an MP. He's a proper shit.
Boris has left himself some room on Farage. Cameron identified Farage, but Boris didn't refer to him explicitly as someone he wouldn't share a platform with - see below:
He added: "What I won't do is take part in loads of TV debates against other members of my party and I was told what the Prime Minister had to say this morning about not sharing platforms with George Galloway and other individuals, and I won't do that either."
I was not expecting Zahawi to come out for Leave. A big surprise.
I think No 10 will be panicking. Some big name cabinet ministers and 140+ MPs backing Brexit. Not quite the 70 or so MPs and no heavy hitters like they supposedly expected.
Ken Clark or Boris? Everyone loves a clown but unless people treat this referendum as a trip to the circus when it comes to trusting the judgement of the respective sides the amiable and always reasonable Ken will trump Boris every day of the week.
Alistaire Meeks is right. The team line-ups look like Respected Public Figures V The Mavericks and the more high profile chancers like Boris that join the more oddball the Maverics seem.
The Maastricht Rebels were a perfect template for this. All we remember is a man in a funny striped jacket and a strange short lady surrounded by some seriously odd grinning blokes. I daresay they were all serious but collectively they came across as a freak-show
This isn't a reflection on the wit and wisdom of Boris it's just that most people see him as a joke. Joining a team with players seen as weird and even slightly sinister like Gove Farage IDS and Galloway makes them collectively look like Maastricht Rebels MK2
At the end of the day referendums are one on the issues not personalities, see Scotland
Support for Scottiah Independence started it's late surge in the Polling following Salmond's demolition job on Darling in the second debate.
Who knows what might have been if Salmond hadn't been utter pish in the first debate.
The result was 55-45, exactly the same as ICM was polling in the summer, well before the debates!
The July ICM poll before the debates was Yes: 34% No: 45% DK: 21%
I don't think you can ignore a Don't Know figure that large to come up with a 'headline' figure, which even still that was Yes: 43% No: 57%
The ICM phone poll after the debates was Yes: 40% No: 42% DK: 17%
Have any of you Remainers got anything positive to say about the EU or will you just spend the next few months insulting anyone who disagrees with you frighteningly intellectual superior beings?
Positive parts of the EU: Free market and free trade across Europe. A British passport becomes a European passport and allows you to holiday, move, work or retire to any nation in Europe without going through a visa process first.
Free market and free trade will not end, as we run a £3 billion trade deficit with them, unless of course they are so spiteful they shoot themselves in the foot,
I don't care one bit about visas, as they would need one to come here so as IDS was correct in saying, we would be safer.
I'll take on all comers tonight, any more Remainers come up with what they see as a positive?
You didn't say you wanted a debate, you said has anyone got anything positive to say rather than insults. My two points were entirely positive and had no insults, you can't say there is zero positivity if you ignore or dismiss all positive points. Plus as I said earlier this thread I no longer know how I want to vote or who I want to win.
What guarantees do we have they won't be spiteful? Especially given signing a new trade agreement requires effectively unanimous agreement. We've just seen how little Cameron has been able to win even with the threat of us leaving, while that has been taken as an argument here in favour of leave (and partially has myself too) it also underlines the real risks to getting a good agreement if we do leave. Can we guarantee the French won't be vindictive and refuse us free trade on what they would see as "unfair" terms?
As for visas, you may not care but I do. You want positivism, that is positivism even if it isn't convincing to you.
Pre-1973 it was perfectly possible to travel to Europe without needing any sort of visa. I did it all the time as did my parents. This idea that holidays in and travel to Europe only started when we joined the EU is total cobblers.
Pre-1973 it was perfectly possible to travel to Europe without needing any sort of visa. I did it all the time as did my parents. This idea that holidays in and travel to Europe only started when we joined the EU is total cobblers.
I didn't just say holidays.
I have family who have retired to Spain. Could you retire to Spain without a visa pre-73? If I decided I wanted to live near that family I could go and stay with them visa-free and job-free and look for work there then start working there without ever dealing with hassle like a visa etc - would that have been possible pre-73?
I know others see visas as a positive thing, but I see the lack of them as positive. I'm currently on holiday posting this from Canada where my in-laws live, again I didn't need a visa to go on holiday here but I would need one to get a job here. Relocating to live by my wife's parents would be a headache in a way it isn't across Europe.
Ken Clark or Boris? Everyone loves a clown but unless people treat this referendum as a trip to the circus when it comes to trusting the judgement of the respective sides the amiable and always reasonable Ken will trump Boris every day of the week.
Alistaire Meeks is right. The team line-ups look like Respected Public Figures V The Mavericks and the more high profile chancers like Boris that join the more oddball the Maverics seem.
The Maastricht Rebels were a perfect template for this. All we remember is a man in a funny striped jacket and a strange short lady surrounded by some seriously odd grinning blokes. I daresay they were all serious but collectively they came across as a freak-show
This isn't a reflection on the wit and wisdom of Boris it's just that most people see him as a joke. Joining a team with players seen as weird and even slightly sinister like Gove Farage IDS and Galloway makes them collectively look like Maastricht Rebels MK2
Everyone of those "respected public figures" said we would go to hell in a handcart if we didn't join the Euro. Not one of them has a sliver of credibility yet sycophantic idiots like you believe every word they say.
Meeks may well be a very intelligent man, but his sneering elitist attitude to anyone who disagrees with him is shows a crushingly dull spirit with no other outlook on life other than play it safe.
Have any of you Remainers got anything positive to say about the EU or will you just spend the next few months insulting anyone who disagrees with you frighteningly intellectual superior beings?
Positive parts of the EU: Free market and free trade across Europe. A British passport becomes a European passport and allows you to holiday, move, work or retire to any nation in Europe without going through a visa process first.
Free market and free trade will not end, as we run a £3 billion trade deficit with them, unless of course they are so spiteful they shoot themselves in the foot,
I don't care one bit about visas, as they would need one to come here so as IDS was correct in saying, we would be safer.
I'll take on all comers tonight, any more Remainers come up with what they see as a positive?
Nigel
not sure where you get the £3 billion trade deficit figure from. The actual trade deficit in 2014 was £61 billion - 20 times what you are quoting.
Have any of you Remainers got anything positive to say about the EU or will you just spend the next few months insulting anyone who disagrees with you frighteningly intellectual superior beings?
Positive parts of the EU: Free market and free trade across Europe. A British passport becomes a European passport and allows you to holiday, move, work or retire to any nation in Europe without going through a visa process first.
Free market and free trade will not end, as we run a £3 billion trade deficit with them, unless of course they are so spiteful they shoot themselves in the foot,
I don't care one bit about visas, as they would need one to come here so as IDS was correct in saying, we would be safer.
I'll take on all comers tonight, any more Remainers come up with what they see as a positive?
You didn't say you wanted a debate, you said has anyone got anything positive to say rather than insults. My two points were entirely positive and had no insults, you can't say there is zero positivity if you ignore or dismiss all positive points. Plus as I said earlier this thread I no longer know how I want to vote or who I want to win.
What guarantees do we have they won't be spiteful? Especially given signing a new trade agreement requires effectively unanimous agreement. We've just seen how little Cameron has been able to win even with the threat of us leaving, while that has been taken as an argument here in favour of leave (and partially has myself too) it also underlines the real risks to getting a good agreement if we do leave. Can we guarantee the French won't be vindictive and refuse us free trade on what they would see as "unfair" terms?
As for visas, you may not care but I do. You want positivism, that is positivism even if it isn't convincing to you.
As I said if they were spiteful it would be cutting off their nose to spite their face.
10% trade tariff on British goods? OK we will apply a reciprocal agreement on all EU imports, including Mercedes, Siemans, Renault, BMW, Citroen etc etc etc........
Up to them but it will never happen
What guarantees do you have it will never happen? If the French were so concerned with insuring the Germans could sell us BMW's and Mercedes then they could have given Cameron a MUCH better deal. But they didn't, did they? They could quite easily see a spiteful deal as right politically even if it hurts economically, I don't trust the French as much as you do it seems to put economics ahead of politics.
I don't trust anyone, least of all our own politicians,but at least i get the chance to vote them out.
Possibly the most cynical political decision since Blair went into Iraq with Bush. Johnson's late 'out' position shows just what an opportunist he is. 'Wont't share a platform with Farage' whilst sharing a 'platform' with Farage. What a complete twat he is. I suppose you shouldn't be surprised from someone who swore he wouldn't become an MP whilst being Mayor of London and then promptly became an MP. He's a proper shit.
What a pleasant second post.
I've been a member on here since the place started, Don't know why my name has changed and not made any contributions for years. But I've been reading and posting since before you. I'm sure your efforts are more valid than mine.
Don't worry about it. All the neophytes have a go at me (especially if you're pro-EU or pro-NHS) yet I too have been posting here since 2004.
Possibly the most cynical political decision since Blair went into Iraq with Bush. Johnson's late 'out' position shows just what an opportunist he is. 'Wont't share a platform with Farage' whilst sharing a 'platform' with Farage. What a complete twat he is. I suppose you shouldn't be surprised from someone who swore he wouldn't become an MP whilst being Mayor of London and then promptly became an MP. He's a proper shit.
What a pleasant second post.
I've been a member on here since the place started, Don't know why my name has changed and not made any contributions for years. But I've been reading and posting since before you. I'm sure your efforts are more valid than mine.
Ah, my mistake. They typically aren't, but I don't go around calling people I disagree with "proper shits". Just this morning there was a discussion about how much deference we should award the PM. I don't think too much, but in the opposite direction I totally oppose people insulting others in the way you just did.
It not that I just disagree with him. He's an opportunist amoral bandwagon jumper. He sees Cameron doing a third term if Yes wins so he goes with No to try and secure the leadership as his best chance. Country first. You're joking. Boris first.
Apparently Osborne and Cameron thought Gove was in the bag. When they discovered, to their horror, a few weeks ago he wasn't they had a series of meetings with him 2:1 to dissuade him, and through intermediaries.
Apparently, the sovereignty bill was supposed to be his work as Justice Secretary, but he wasn't convinced it was meaningful.
It has now been given to Oliver Letwin to pilot.
Gove's statement didn't sound as though he was on the fence at all. How could Cameron and Osborne get it so wrong?
The problem Gove faced, and he is very far from alone, is spelt out in his piece. He has great personal loyalty to DC and GO and he finds being on the opposite side from them difficult. He is of course a close personal friend. I have never met either of them but I am torn by the fact that voting Leave is likely to destroy some of the most competent and amenable (for me) government I have enjoyed in my life time. One of the questions I have to answer is whether the EU is worth this.
Check out page 40 onwards of Cutting the Gordian knot: A road map for British exit from the European Union by Iain Murray and Rory Broomfield. Lots of interesting info on farming.
He's certainly scuppered his chances of being the next PM. Or are the Tories going to continue the lunacy of the last 30 years and have a leader who is anti-EU when the country has decisively voted to remain?
Possibly the most cynical political decision since Blair went into Iraq with Bush. Johnson's late 'out' position shows just what an opportunist he is. 'Wont't share a platform with Farage' whilst sharing a 'platform' with Farage. What a complete twat he is. I suppose you shouldn't be surprised from someone who swore he wouldn't become an MP whilst being Mayor of London and then promptly became an MP. He's a proper shit.
What a pleasant second post.
I've been a member on here since the place started, Don't know why my name has changed and not made any contributions for years. But I've been reading and posting since before you. I'm sure your efforts are more valid than mine.
Don't worry about it. All the neophytes have a go at me (especially if you're pro-EU or pro-NHS) yet I too have been posting here since 2004.
If this is a measuring contest, I have also been posting since before the '05 election. Certainly not a neophyte.
Comments
I suppose a tiny number of malcontents may remain arguing for us to re-join, or up the ante on integration, and they will be tolerated but ignored.
A bit like the number of pro-euro Tories left now, which you can count on the fingers of one hand.
EFTA/EEA membership with the acceptance of freedom of movement
Completely out with a bilateral trade agreement with the EU which does not include freedom of movement.
For all the debate and discussion those are the two basic options.
I know which one I prefer and I kind of assume that any sensible government after a LEAVE vote would feel the same. Given that after a LEAVE vote we will have almost 4 more years of Tory government which is overwhelmingly in favour of the EEA route over complete withdrawal I would think it a string possibility that that will be the eventual outcome.
EDIT: UKIP would be an irrelevance. Their one MP in Parliament favours the EEA route. They could shout and scream but in the end they would have no power.
"We are vulnerable in the EU. Paris might happen here"
OK, except, we are in the EU, and Paris didn't happen here. If IDS is right they decided to attack Paris because "London was easier..."?
Very disappointing stuff from Neil Robertson so far this evening - Ronnie hasn't been playing great today, but Robertson has handed the last 5 frames to Ronnie on a plate from being 5-2 up - poor.
I accept that moving and retiring freely might be up for grabs, but not if you can demonstrate self-sufficiency and meet residency criteria.
I also think free trade is almost a given. The degree to access to the single market would be up for negotiation, and probably there's a free movement trade off there.
What guarantees do we have they won't be spiteful? Especially given signing a new trade agreement requires effectively unanimous agreement. We've just seen how little Cameron has been able to win even with the threat of us leaving, while that has been taken as an argument here in favour of leave (and partially has myself too) it also underlines the real risks to getting a good agreement if we do leave. Can we guarantee the French won't be vindictive and refuse us free trade on what they would see as "unfair" terms?
As for visas, you may not care but I do. You want positivism, that is positivism even if it isn't convincing to you.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/12167156/Cambridge-students-call-for-African-bronze-cockerel-statue-to-fall-in-latest-colonial-row.html
The interesting juxtaposition was BoJo, who claimed he wants a trade deal only (may the best man win), and AJ, for whom Internationalism and solidarity were the key (Socialism at any cost)
Not the basis on which the referendum will be fought of course
It is possible that this will not happen, that the EZ members will not form a consolidated bloc and that we will be able to find allies within them that support our position on any particular issue. If that were the case then you would be right and it would be better to stay in.
So the gamble is whether, as they increase their fiscal co-ordination a unified position becomes the norm or the current position where we have a chance, albeit the most frequently outvoted country persists. We don't really know but I think the common position is the more likely.
My favoured options on this are in order of preference:
(1) a substantially reformed EU along the lines that Cameron set out in his Bloomberg speech. Regrettably not on the table.
(2) Membership of the EEA with at least as close co-operation with the EU as any EEA member has now.
(3) Membership continuing as it is now taking our chances.
(4) Membership outside the EEA and the single market.
To vote Leave I need to be sure of (2). I will not risk (4). I believe that to be foolish. Despite how brilliant Gove's piece was yesterday he didn't really adequately address the question of what happens next. We'll be fine is not an answer.
And given the issues around the CAP, would farming in this country benefit from Brexit?
I have listed the questions for the first part of my @UKLabour membership poll on my Facebook page here: https://t.co/tzDg0cgzTe
10% trade tariff on British goods? OK we will apply a reciprocal agreement on all EU imports, including Mercedes, Siemans, Renault, BMW, Citroen etc etc etc........
Up to them but it will never happen
Things are less complicated than some wish.
The speed that many nations have thrown up border controls in the Schengen area is a perfect example of how quickly people can act when they really want to.
When you are free and able to act independently, you really don't need never ending meetings with 27 separate nations to actually get things done.
It also seems to have escaped some remainers' notice that there are about 200 countries existing quite happily outside the EU.
It means our net contributions would drop from around £11 billion a year to around £2 billion as the worst case.
It means we would no longer be part of the Common Fisheries Policy or the Common Agricultural policy.
It means we would have our own seats with full voting rights on the WTO, UNECE and Codex along with many other international bodies where currently we cede authority to the EU
It means the ECJ would no longer have the ability to reinterpret our court decisions.
That is just to start with.,
It really is a big deal.
Our relationship with the continent has been an issue for over two millenia, and I suspect that it will temain so over the forseeable future, whether in or out.
June 13 2001
In a jointly written article with the Spanish prime minister, Jose Maria Aznar, in the Financial Times, he said the euro "is changing the face of Europe" and the European Central Bank has delivered low inflation and high growth across the continent.
He also stressed the damage done to British business by exchange rate fluctuations.
He said: "Europe's economic fundamentals are sound: sounder than they have been for over a generation.
"The EU's economies are growing and it is important to underline that they are now creating jobs in Europe faster than almost anywhere else in the developed world.
May 17 2000
During question time, the prime minister insisted he supported a statement by the then Northern Ireland secretary, Peter Mandelson, that business would continue to suffer while Britain remained outside the single currency.
February 2 2000
Mr Blair told the Commons that Tory opponents who had ruled out joining the euro in the next parliament were "foolish and backward".
June 15 1998
Mr Blair said: "The decision to launch the single currency is the first step and marks the turning point for Europe, marks stability and growth and is crucial to high levels of growth and employment."
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2002/may/16/euro.eu
- M. H. Thatcher - The Bruges Speech, 20 September, 1988
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/335088/SingleMarketFree_MovementPersons.pdf
Apparently Osborne and Cameron thought Gove was in the bag. When they discovered, to their horror, a few weeks ago he wasn't they had a series of meetings with him 2:1 to dissuade him, and through intermediaries.
Apparently, the sovereignty bill was supposed to be his work as Justice Secretary, but he wasn't convinced it was meaningful.
It has now been given to Oliver Letwin to pilot.
I think this would be a more likely scenario is we voted out, that we would find especially new opportunities would be harder for British companies to fully maximize, but rather than because of EU imposes stupid rules because of our membership, it will be because the EU demands we follow some stupid rules to give us access.
I think he would've looked more unprincipled and self-interested if he'd toed the governmental line.
If there are caps and restrictions on free movement, it will be enough.
If not, the issue won't go away in the public at large, so it won't go away with the politicians either.
But the EU boil will have been lanced.
One thing we will not be killing off is free movement. Any eu trade deal will involve free movement and I would have thought if the eu wants to protect its future negotiations with just about anybody then it would not include any benefits concessions.
Its sad that leave has reduced itself to anti immigrants and if it wins its not going to stop at the eu. The splits within it will be laid bare.
Where has ukips star MP been recently? You know the one who likes immigrants and who thinks immigration is a good thing. What on earth can be the reason for his absence from the airwaves?
@steverichards14: @bbcnickrobinson That's the key- a close reading shows he is not comfortable with 'out'.
The thing is there is f##k all chance we get anywhere with this approach. Getting 27 countries to agree a fundamental change just isn't going to happen, especially as no leading politician who could get power is seriously going to pull a Thatcher and say you don't meet our demands, we will take our bat and bowl home (and actually in todays world, we have a lot less to offer to make that a scary threat).
How candidates for the future leadership of the Tory party voted and which side they were on will become a litmus test. If Remain win, and the choice for Tory members is between Osborne and Boris, Boris wins hands down, his Ace card will be "I backed Brexit", even if Brexit loses.
It's ruined them or their way of earning income.
He added: "What I won't do is take part in loads of TV debates against other members of my party and I was told what the Prime Minister had to say this morning about not sharing platforms with George Galloway and other individuals, and I won't do that either."
I think No 10 will be panicking. Some big name cabinet ministers and 140+ MPs backing Brexit. Not quite the 70 or so MPs and no heavy hitters like they supposedly expected.
Yes: 34%
No: 45%
DK: 21%
I don't think you can ignore a Don't Know figure that large to come up with a 'headline' figure, which even still that was
Yes: 43%
No: 57%
The ICM phone poll after the debates was
Yes: 40%
No: 42%
DK: 17%
Headline
Yes: 49%
No: 51%
I have family who have retired to Spain. Could you retire to Spain without a visa pre-73? If I decided I wanted to live near that family I could go and stay with them visa-free and job-free and look for work there then start working there without ever dealing with hassle like a visa etc - would that have been possible pre-73?
I know others see visas as a positive thing, but I see the lack of them as positive. I'm currently on holiday posting this from Canada where my in-laws live, again I didn't need a visa to go on holiday here but I would need one to get a job here. Relocating to live by my wife's parents would be a headache in a way it isn't across Europe.
not sure where you get the £3 billion trade deficit figure from. The actual trade deficit in 2014 was £61 billion - 20 times what you are quoting.
**cough...Sajid Javid....Theresa May cough cough**
http://www.iea.org.uk/sites/default/files/publications/files/Entry23_Cutting the Gordian knot_web.pdf
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.107664938
He's still well in it, though obviously less chance than Trump.