Great to see there will be no Bush Mk III in the White House come next January. Now its time to ensure that there won't be a Clinton there too. Assuming the Republican side comes down to Rubio Trump, what's the best guess for how Cruz's voters would transfer to Rubio and Trump - 60:40 in Rubio's favour?
It will not come down to Rubio v Trump, as Rubio will suspend his campaign three weeks on Tuesday when Trump beats him in Florida. Cruz will likely win Texas, Arkansas and a few other states on Super Tuesday which will be enough to set up a straight contest with Trump lasting until the end of April
That will suit Trump far better I would have thought, as enough Rubio voters will transfer to him, in order to hold Cruz at bay.
Well we can't say politics is going to be dull in 2016 now. The next 4 months are mouthwatering, and Hillary Trump would be fireworks for sure. Then there is 2017, the political year from hell with a real prospect that Marine Le Pen could win the French presidency if as I suspect the sovereign bond crisis has spread to France in the eurozone by then, and we also have German elections in a highly volatile climate too.
Rcs1000 poured cold water on the 8.6 x 6 = 51.6 year political cycle. In France that comes up in 2019 after the previous peak with the soixante huitards as they came to be known in 1968. For the UK our cycle took in the 1926 general strike and the 1979 winter of discontent near enough on that cycle, which suggests that things could be tasty here around 2030 to put it mildly.
Boris does shoot down one key line of Project Fear's attack tactics. We have had examples on here and the Alan Johnson line which I will paraphrase as "the undateables". "The Leave folk look a bit odd, sub standard, thick, unattractive, not normal, almost defective, possibly bordering on special needs"
How can they use that with Boris part of the team? Killing off an attack line in almost one fell swoop.
'If only we all had Hungarian heated swimming pools, earned 20x the aver salary and voted for greenie parties. And thought rural people should pay extra and farming was unnecessary.'
You missed out the million pound apartment in Shoreditch, a salary not driven down by mass immigration, no kids to run the state school lottery & if the NHS is not great loads of money for private treatment
This is what LEAVE looks like. No wonder waverers are repulsed even when they think LEAVE might be right. Roundheads.
I found Mr Meeks's original comment - clearly directed at Theresa Villiers - was pretty immature. Remain like to portray themselves as being on the moral high ground. They're doing a good job at undermining that position at the moment.
I sense panic amongst the Europhiles. No positive case for remaining just insulting those advocating leaving the EU and scaremongering or outright lying in some cases.
I think when people quote Boris' favourability rating, they ignore the fact that Boris is not running a department. People outside London have a view of him shaped only by the media.
What does the people of Liverpool think of him ?
This is why Boris will not put himself at the front and centre of the Leave campaign. He's calculated what's best for him politically, now he'll leave it to others to do the heavy lifting in set-piece interviews, debates etc.
'If only we all had Hungarian heated swimming pools, earned 20x the aver salary and voted for greenie parties. And thought rural people should pay extra and farming was unnecessary.'
You missed out the million pound apartment in Shoreditch, a salary not driven down by mass immigration, no kids to run the state school lottery & if the NHS is not great loads of money for private treatment
This is what LEAVE looks like. No wonder waverers are repulsed even when they think LEAVE might be right. Roundheads.
I found Mr Meeks's original comment - clearly directed at Theresa Villiers - was pretty immature. Remain like to portray themselves as being on the moral high ground. They're doing a good job at undermining that position at the moment.
Neither side has high ground REMAIN is explicitly basing its campaign on terrifying people into voting status, which ceded the high ground immediately, like the 2015 Conservative campaign OTOH, our LEAVE friends saw something they didn't like and jumped right into anti-establishementTrumpianism
When the mood is running so strongly anti-government, that's a perfectly good position to take as Mr Trump has shown. And everyone in the American establishment, and certain voices on here have shown just how out of touch they are with reality by predicting his demise at every turn. Just before the exit polls came out in South Carolina in the hour before midnight on here was comical last night!
Watching the Tories eat themselves will be the most entertainment the centre left have had since the election. Quite why Boris has chosen to swap a sparkling political future for a one way ticket to Palooka-ville is a mystery. But the fact that he has is close to a certainty. Osborne might be the luckiest politician alive
The self destruction of the Tories does threaten popcorn shortage!
But Boris entered Palookaville in May when Dave won a majority. His fox was shot at that point.
Does anyone remember that program on Channel 4 about the first 100 days of a UKIP government? Are they going to do another about the first 100 days ater a vote to leave the EU? A general feeling of jollity in the nation, street parties, etc, the devious (deviant) Europhiles packing their bags to go live in the EU - go on Channel 4 and Jon Snow, you know you want to!
"The chief spokesmen and women for Leave look like the extended Addams Family. Of course Remain are going to draw attention to the carnival freakshow aspect of their opponents"
You clearly have an extremely low opinion of the public if you think that is going to be a deciding factor.
In case you missed it we are all freaks. Well except TSE who is some kind of Indo-European god incarnate.
Even as someone leaning towards Leave, I think the personalities leading the campaigns will make a difference to how many people vote. Let's face it, most people don't make their decisions based on a cold rational look at the facts alone; it's natural if you don't have the time/inclination to look at the issues in huge detail that you use people you like and trust as a proxy. If a friend recommends I go to a certain place on holiday, and I know them to have good taste, then I will consider it more seriously.
I think Boris helps Leave a bit, since whatever people think of him, they don't see him as a miserable, old-fashioned crackpot - which IS the public perception of Farage/UKIP. But they are still badly lacking someone who can reassure the public that leaving isn't risky, and someone who can win tribal Labour voters (as I keep banging on about, there are many traditional Labour voters who in isolation might well agree with most of Leave's arguments, but will nonetheless tell you that their parents would "turn in their graves" if they were to ever vote Tory--so many won't vote Leave if they perceive it to be a Tory-only affair).
I think when people quote Boris' favourability rating, they ignore the fact that Boris is not running a department. People outside London have a view of him shaped only by the media.
What does the people of Liverpool think of him ?
This is why Boris will not put himself at the front and centre of the Leave campaign. He's calculated what's best for him politically, now he'll leave it to others to do the heavy lifting in set-piece interviews, debates etc.
Quite right. Apart from anything else Boris is quite lazy.
'If only we all had Hungarian heated swimming pools, earned 20x the aver salary and voted for greenie parties. And thought rural people should pay extra and farming was unnecessary.'
You missed out the million pound apartment in Shoreditch, a salary not driven down by mass immigration, no kids to run the state school lottery & if the NHS is not great loads of money for private treatment
This is what LEAVE looks like. No wonder waverers are repulsed even when they think LEAVE might be right. Roundheads.
I found Mr Meeks's original comment - clearly directed at Theresa Villiers - was pretty immature. Remain like to portray themselves as being on the moral high ground. They're doing a good job at undermining that position at the moment.
I sense panic amongst the Europhiles. No positive case for remaining just insulting those advocating leaving the EU and scaremongering or outright lying in some cases.
BSE's campaign director Lucy Thomas is seriously out of her depth. I saw her on Sky News earlier talking complete rubbish about Norway and access to the single market. What is particularly infuriating is even after BSE have been proved wrong time and time again they will continue to spout nonsense. 3.10 mins in Robert Oulds from the Bruges Group completely destroys her. Thomas' knowledge of the EU is clearly limited to whatever soundbites she has been told to repeat.
Watching the Tories eat themselves will be the most entertainment the centre left have had since the election. Quite why Boris has chosen to swap a sparkling political future for a one way ticket to Palooka-ville is a mystery. But the fact that he has is close to a certainty. Osborne might be the luckiest politician alive
The self destruction of the Tories does threaten popcorn shortage!
But Boris entered Palookaville in May when Dave won a majority. His fox was shot at that point.
It hasnt really happened though. They're on different sides, and it looked like it might get a bit dicey, but so far there doesnt seem to be the tory splits on europe narrative that has characterised the Conservatives for the last twenty five years.
Watching the Tories eat themselves will be the most entertainment the centre left have had since the election. Quite why Boris has chosen to swap a sparkling political future for a one way ticket to Palooka-ville is a mystery. But the fact that he has is close to a certainty. Osborne might be the luckiest politician alive
The self destruction of the Tories does threaten popcorn shortage!
But Boris entered Palookaville in May when Dave won a majority. His fox was shot at that point.
It hasnt really happened though. They're on different sides, and it looked like it might get a bit dicey, but so far there doesnt seem to be the tory splits on europe narrative that has characterised the Conservatives for the last twenty five years.
Well Boris isn't advocating out out, he is advocating out, better deal, in...vs Cameron I got a better deal, in.
I think when people quote Boris' favourability rating, they ignore the fact that Boris is not running a department. People outside London have a view of him shaped only by the media.
What does the people of Liverpool think of him ?
This is why Boris will not put himself at the front and centre of the Leave campaign. He's calculated what's best for him politically, now he'll leave it to others to do the heavy lifting in set-piece interviews, debates etc.
Quite right. Apart from anything else Boris is quite lazy.
As one actuary once said to me, 'laziness is my greatest asset'. I thought he was mad to say that at first, but when I thought about it a bit more I could see the sense in it. I personally abhor inefficiency, and am not one to stay around long hours if possible. Get the job done and get it done in good time I say!
Hoping for some fireworks from the Rocket now to down the Thunder from down under. Come on Ronnie! Great sportmanship from Robertson in the final frame this afternoon to point out the three misses rule.....respect.
Watching the Tories eat themselves will be the most entertainment the centre left have had since the election. Quite why Boris has chosen to swap a sparkling political future for a one way ticket to Palooka-ville is a mystery. But the fact that he has is close to a certainty. Osborne might be the luckiest politician alive
The self destruction of the Tories does threaten popcorn shortage!
But Boris entered Palookaville in May when Dave won a majority. His fox was shot at that point.
It hasnt really happened though. They're on different sides, and it looked like it might get a bit dicey, but so far there doesnt seem to be the tory splits on europe narrative that has characterised the Conservatives for the last twenty five years.
Does anyone remember that program on Channel 4 about the first 100 days of a UKIP government? Are they going to do another about the first 100 days ater a vote to leave the EU? A general feeling of jollity in the nation, street parties, etc, the devious (deviant) Europhiles packing their bags to go live in the EU - go on Channel 4 and Jon Snow, you know you want to!
Actually, I suspect the first 100 days would be an orgy of hard work as (a) we would then need to work out what relationship we would have with the EU, and then after that (b) civil servants and politicians rushed to negotiate new trade deals and to draft new legislation to take over from the point when - two years later - we were officially free.
While there would be hope in the air, there would also be trepidation.
'If only we all had Hungarian heated swimming pools, earned 20x the aver salary and voted for greenie parties. And thought rural people should pay extra and farming was unnecessary.'
You missed out the million pound apartment in Shoreditch, a salary not driven down by mass immigration, no kids to run the state school lottery & if the NHS is not great loads of money for private treatment
This is what LEAVE looks like. No wonder waverers are repulsed even when they think LEAVE might be right. Roundheads.
'If only we all had Hungarian heated swimming pools, earned 20x the aver salary and voted for greenie parties. And thought rural people should pay extra and farming was unnecessary.'
You missed out the million pound apartment in Shoreditch, a salary not driven down by mass immigration, no kids to run the state school lottery & if the NHS is not great loads of money for private treatment
This is what LEAVE looks like. No wonder waverers are repulsed even when they think LEAVE might be right. Roundheads.
I found Mr Meeks's original comment - clearly directed at Theresa Villiers - was pretty immature. Remain like to portray themselves as being on the moral high ground. They're doing a good job at undermining that position at the moment.
I sense panic amongst the Europhiles. No positive case for remaining just insulting those advocating leaving the EU and scaremongering or outright lying in some cases.
BSE's campaign director Lucy Thomas is seriously out of her depth. I saw her on Sky News earlier talking complete rubbish about Norway and access to the single market. What is particularly infuriating is even after BSE have been proved wrong time and time again they will continue to spout nonsense. 3.10 mins in Robert Oulds from the Bruges Group completely destroys her. Thomas' knowledge of the EU is clearly limited to whatever soundbites she has been told to repeat.
The Leave campaign need to bang the message again and again about Norway and Switzerland being the two richest countries in Europe, and keep their campaign as positive as possible about the sunlit uplands outside of the EU. Boris mentioned that phrase this afternoon, we need much more of it from leave.
'If only we all had Hungarian heated swimming pools, earned 20x the aver salary and voted for greenie parties. And thought rural people should pay extra and farming was unnecessary.'
You missed out the million pound apartment in Shoreditch, a salary not driven down by mass immigration, no kids to run the state school lottery & if the NHS is not great loads of money for private treatment
This is what LEAVE looks like. No wonder waverers are repulsed even when they think LEAVE might be right. Roundheads.
I found Mr Meeks's original comment - clearly directed at Theresa Villiers - was pretty immature. Remain like to portray themselves as being on the moral high ground. They're doing a good job at undermining that position at the moment.
I sense panic amongst the Europhiles. No positive case for remaining just insulting those advocating leaving the EU and scaremongering or outright lying in some cases.
BSE's campaign director Lucy Thomas is seriously out of her depth. I saw her on Sky News earlier talking complete rubbish about Norway and access to the single market. What is particularly infuriating is even after BSE have been proved wrong time and time again they will continue to spout nonsense. 3.10 mins in Robert Oulds from the Bruges Group completely destroys her. Thomas' knowledge of the EU is clearly limited to whatever soundbites she has been told to repeat.
I had a similar thought a week or so ago. AFAIK she comes from Roland Rudd's team and was placed as a SPAD inside this Govt to prepare for the Remain campaign.
Great to see there will be no Bush Mk III in the White House come next January. Now its time to ensure that there won't be a Clinton there too. Assuming the Republican side comes down to Rubio Trump, what's the best guess for how Cruz's voters would transfer to Rubio and Trump - 60:40 in Rubio's favour?
It will not come down to Rubio v Trump, as Rubio will suspend his campaign three weeks on Tuesday when Trump beats him in Florida. Cruz will likely win Texas, Arkansas and a few other states on Super Tuesday which will be enough to set up a straight contest with Trump lasting until the end of April
That will suit Trump far better I would have thought, as enough Rubio voters will transfer to him, in order to hold Cruz at bay.
Well we can't say politics is going to be dull in 2016 now. The next 4 months are mouthwatering, and Hillary Trump would be fireworks for sure. Then there is 2017, the political year from hell with a real prospect that Marine Le Pen could win the French presidency if as I suspect the sovereign bond crisis has spread to France in the eurozone by then, and we also have German elections in a highly volatile climate too.
Rcs1000 poured cold water on the 8.6 x 6 = 51.6 year political cycle. In France that comes up in 2019 after the previous peak with the soixante huitards as they came to be known in 1968. For the UK our cycle took in the 1926 general strike and the 1979 winter of discontent near enough on that cycle, which suggests that things could be tasty here around 2030 to put it mildly.
Yes, facing Cruz is ideal for Trump. Populists everywhere as you say, Trump, Le Pen, Sanders, Corbyn, Wilders Leave, will be an anti establishment mood everywhere for the next couple of elections, though the establishment will probably scrape home battered and bruised in each case in the end!
Does anyone remember that program on Channel 4 about the first 100 days of a UKIP government? Are they going to do another about the first 100 days ater a vote to leave the EU? A general feeling of jollity in the nation, street parties, etc, the devious (deviant) Europhiles packing their bags to go live in the EU - go on Channel 4 and Jon Snow, you know you want to!
Actually, I suspect the first 100 days would be an orgy of hard work as (a) we would then need to work out what relationship we would have with the EU, and then after that (b) civil servants and politicians rushed to negotiate new trade deals and to draft new legislation to take over from the point when - two years later - we were officially free.
While there would be hope in the air, there would also be trepidation.
I think in reality we would be bogged down in trade talks for years.
'If only we all had Hungarian heated swimming pools, earned 20x the aver salary and voted for greenie parties. And thought rural people should pay extra and farming was unnecessary.'
You missed out the million pound apartment in Shoreditch, a salary not driven down by mass immigration, no kids to run the state school lottery & if the NHS is not great loads of money for private treatment
This is what LEAVE looks like. No wonder waverers are repulsed even when they think LEAVE might be right. Roundheads.
I found Mr Meeks's original comment - clearly directed at Theresa Villiers - was pretty immature. Remain like to portray themselves as being on the moral high ground. They're doing a good job at undermining that position at the moment.
I sense panic amongst the Europhiles. No positive case for remaining just insulting those advocating leaving the EU and scaremongering or outright lying in some cases.
BSE's campaign director Lucy Thomas is seriously out of her depth. I saw her on Sky News earlier talking complete rubbish about Norway and access to the single market. What is particularly infuriating is even after BSE have been proved wrong time and time again they will continue to spout nonsense. 3.10 mins in Robert Oulds from the Bruges Group completely destroys her. Thomas' knowledge of the EU is clearly limited to whatever soundbites she has been told to repeat.
The Leave campaign need to bang the message again and again about Norway and Switzerland being the two richest countries in Europe, and keep their campaign as positive as possible about the sunlit uplands outside of the EU. Boris mentioned that phrase this afternoon, we need much more of it from leave.
I think when people quote Boris' favourability rating, they ignore the fact that Boris is not running a department. People outside London have a view of him shaped only by the media.
What does the people of Liverpool think of him ?
This is why Boris will not put himself at the front and centre of the Leave campaign. He's calculated what's best for him politically, now he'll leave it to others to do the heavy lifting in set-piece interviews, debates etc.
He is entitled to think we ought to leave the eu without committing to tramping the country to argue so. All govt ministers still have their jobs to do as well. They will get plenty opportunity to display their otherwise loyalty in parliament as well.
What Boris has not done other than a generality is suggest where we ought to go, how we sensibly get there and define just what the end term difference will really be. The Sunday Times Business quotes the city as being releived ar the outcome of the negotiations and satisfied with the safeguards and that 50 of the FTSE100 leaders will be writing an official letter of support for continued membership. David Smith the Sunday Times Economics Editor confirms that immigration has a net economic benefit and that net migration from the EU is lower than other migration and that of the (larger) remainder a significant part is students here to study.
'If only we all had Hungarian heated swimming pools, earned 20x the aver salary and voted for greenie parties. And thought rural people should pay extra and farming was unnecessary.'
You missed out the million pound apartment in Shoreditch, a salary not driven down by mass immigration, no kids to run the state school lottery & if the NHS is not great loads of money for private treatment
This is what LEAVE looks like. No wonder waverers are repulsed even when they think LEAVE might be right. Roundheads.
Does anyone remember that program on Channel 4 about the first 100 days of a UKIP government? Are they going to do another about the first 100 days ater a vote to leave the EU? A general feeling of jollity in the nation, street parties, etc, the devious (deviant) Europhiles packing their bags to go live in the EU - go on Channel 4 and Jon Snow, you know you want to!
Actually, I suspect the first 100 days would be an orgy of hard work as (a) we would then need to work out what relationship we would have with the EU, and then after that (b) civil servants and politicians rushed to negotiate new trade deals and to draft new legislation to take over from the point when - two years later - we were officially free.
While there would be hope in the air, there would also be trepidation.
Absolutely. First 5 years would be an orgy of hard work let alone 100 days. It would be an uphill slog, but the reward imo is nothing less than national survival.
Great to see there will be no Bush Mk III in the White House come next January. Now its time to ensure that there won't be a Clinton there too. Assuming the Republican side comes down to Rubio Trump, what's the best guess for how Cruz's voters would transfer to Rubio and Trump - 60:40 in Rubio's favour?
It will not come down to Rubio v Trump, as Rubio will suspend his campaign three weeks on Tuesday when Trump beats him in Florida. Cruz will likely win Texas, Arkansas and a few other states on Super Tuesday which will be enough to set up a straight contest with Trump lasting until the end of April
That depends on a lot what Kasich does.
By the way, what is Trump's view on health care ? I know he has sound bites against Obamacare but what if "Universal care" is mentioned.
What is Trump's position on Israel ? Same as every other US politician ?
'If only we all had Hungarian heated swimming pools, earned 20x the aver salary and voted for greenie parties. And thought rural people should pay extra and farming was unnecessary.'
You missed out the million pound apartment in Shoreditch, a salary not driven down by mass immigration, no kids to run the state school lottery & if the NHS is not great loads of money for private treatment
This is what LEAVE looks like. No wonder waverers are repulsed even when they think LEAVE might be right. Roundheads.
Err the Roundheads won didn't they ?
EPG taking a most cavalier attitude.....
Not only did they win, they modified the state, advanced individual rights, and laid the foundations for the Britsih Empire.
Great to see there will be no Bush Mk III in the White House come next January. Now its time to ensure that there won't be a Clinton there too. Assuming the Republican side comes down to Rubio Trump, what's the best guess for how Cruz's voters would transfer to Rubio and Trump - 60:40 in Rubio's favour?
It will not come down to Rubio v Trump, as Rubio will suspend his campaign three weeks on Tuesday when Trump beats him in Florida. Cruz will likely win Texas, Arkansas and a few other states on Super Tuesday which will be enough to set up a straight contest with Trump lasting until the end of April
That depends on a lot what Kasich does.
By the way, what is Trump's view on health care ? I know he has sound bites against Obamacare but what if "Universal care" is mentioned.
What is Trump's position on Israel ? Same as every other US politician ?
He is going to get Mexico to pay for American universal health care ;-)
'If only we all had Hungarian heated swimming pools, earned 20x the aver salary and voted for greenie parties. And thought rural people should pay extra and farming was unnecessary.'
You missed out the million pound apartment in Shoreditch, a salary not driven down by mass immigration, no kids to run the state school lottery & if the NHS is not great loads of money for private treatment
This is what LEAVE looks like. No wonder waverers are repulsed even when they think LEAVE might be right. Roundheads.
I found Mr Meeks's original comment - clearly directed at Theresa Villiers - was pretty immature. Remain like to portray themselves as being on the moral high ground. They're doing a good job at undermining that position at the moment.
I sense panic amongst the Europhiles. No positive case for remaining just insulting those advocating leaving the EU and scaremongering or outright lying in some cases.
BSE's campaign director Lucy Thomas is seriously out of her depth. I saw her on Sky News earlier talking complete rubbish about Norway and access to the single market. What is particularly infuriating is even after BSE have been proved wrong time and time again they will continue to spout nonsense. 3.10 mins in Robert Oulds from the Bruges Group completely destroys her. Thomas' knowledge of the EU is clearly limited to whatever soundbites she has been told to repeat.
'If only we all had Hungarian heated swimming pools, earned 20x the aver salary and voted for greenie parties. And thought rural people should pay extra and farming was unnecessary.'
You missed out the million pound apartment in Shoreditch, a salary not driven down by mass immigration, no kids to run the state school lottery & if the NHS is not great loads of money for private treatment
This is what LEAVE looks like. No wonder waverers are repulsed even when they think LEAVE might be right. Roundheads.
I found Mr Meeks's original comment - clearly directed at Theresa Villiers - was pretty immature. Remain like to portray themselves as being on the moral high ground. They're doing a good job at undermining that position at the moment.
I sense panic amongst the Europhiles. No positive case for remaining just insulting those advocating leaving the EU and scaremongering or outright lying in some cases.
BSE's campaign director Lucy Thomas is seriously out of her depth. I saw her on Sky News earlier talking complete rubbish about Norway and access to the single market. What is particularly infuriating is even after BSE have been proved wrong time and time again they will continue to spout nonsense. 3.10 mins in Robert Oulds from the Bruges Group completely destroys her. Thomas' knowledge of the EU is clearly limited to whatever soundbites she has been told to repeat.
The Leave campaign need to bang the message again and again about Norway and Switzerland being the two richest countries in Europe, and keep their campaign as positive as possible about the sunlit uplands outside of the EU. Boris mentioned that phrase this afternoon, we need much more of it from leave.
Norway is rich because it is a petro-state.
Focus on Switzerland.
Actually technically Luxembourg is the richest nation in Europe and has been in the EU/EEC since its foundation
'If only we all had Hungarian heated swimming pools, earned 20x the aver salary and voted for greenie parties. And thought rural people should pay extra and farming was unnecessary.'
You missed out the million pound apartment in Shoreditch, a salary not driven down by mass immigration, no kids to run the state school lottery & if the NHS is not great loads of money for private treatment
This is what LEAVE looks like. No wonder waverers are repulsed even when they think LEAVE might be right. Roundheads.
I found Mr Meeks's original comment - clearly directed at Theresa Villiers - was pretty immature. Remain like to portray themselves as being on the moral high ground. They're doing a good job at undermining that position at the moment.
I sense panic amongst the Europhiles. No positive case for remaining just insulting those advocating leaving the EU and scaremongering or outright lying in some cases.
BSE's campaign director Lucy Thomas is seriously out of her depth. I saw her on Sky News earlier talking complete rubbish about Norway and access to the single market. What is particularly infuriating is even after BSE have been proved wrong time and time again they will continue to spout nonsense. 3.10 mins in Robert Oulds from the Bruges Group completely destroys her. Thomas' knowledge of the EU is clearly limited to whatever soundbites she has been told to repeat.
The Leave campaign need to bang the message again and again about Norway and Switzerland being the two richest countries in Europe, and keep their campaign as positive as possible about the sunlit uplands outside of the EU. Boris mentioned that phrase this afternoon, we need much more of it from leave.
Norway is rich because it is a petro-state.
Focus on Switzerland.
Wouldn't Liechtenstein or Andorra be better ? Or, why not make the UK part of Jersey ?
'If only we all had Hungarian heated swimming pools, earned 20x the aver salary and voted for greenie parties. And thought rural people should pay extra and farming was unnecessary.'
You missed out the million pound apartment in Shoreditch, a salary not driven down by mass immigration, no kids to run the state school lottery & if the NHS is not great loads of money for private treatment
This is what LEAVE looks like. No wonder waverers are repulsed even when they think LEAVE might be right. Roundheads.
Err the Roundheads won didn't they ?
I don't think Boris could ever be characterised as a Roundhead. Ditto Galloway and Farage. If you do want to characterise this as Roundheads vs Cavaliers, then (with the exception of Gove) on bon vivant grounds, one would assign Cavalier to LEAVE and Roundhead to REMAIN.
'The Leave campaign need to bang the message again and again about Norway and Switzerland being the two richest countries in Europe, and keep their campaign as positive as possible about the sunlit uplands outside of the EU.'
Or maybe just ask how countries like Australia & Canada can be so prosperous & safe outside the EU ?
'If only we all had Hungarian heated swimming pools, earned 20x the aver salary and voted for greenie parties. And thought rural people should pay extra and farming was unnecessary.'
You missed out the million pound apartment in Shoreditch, a salary not driven down by mass immigration, no kids to run the state school lottery & if the NHS is not great loads of money for private treatment
This is what LEAVE looks like. No wonder waverers are repulsed even when they think LEAVE might be right. Roundheads.
Err the Roundheads won didn't they ?
I don't think Boris could ever be characterised as a Roundhead. Ditto Galloway and Farage. If you do want to characterise this as Roundheads vs Cavaliers, then (with the exception of Gove) on bon vivant grounds, one would assign Cavalier to LEAVE and Roundhead to REMAIN.
I didn't characterise Leave as Roundheads, read the thread.
To all those on PB who think the Tories are done for over the EU Ref..they could split..engage in bloody warfare..eat each others dead bodies on the battlefield..crap them out..eat them again.. crap them out... and still beat Corbyn in 2020
'If only we all had Hungarian heated swimming pools, earned 20x the aver salary and voted for greenie parties. And thought rural people should pay extra and farming was unnecessary.'
You missed out the million pound apartment in Shoreditch, a salary not driven down by mass immigration, no kids to run the state school lottery & if the NHS is not great loads of money for private treatment
This is what LEAVE looks like. No wonder waverers are repulsed even when they think LEAVE might be right. Roundheads.
I found Mr Meeks's original comment - clearly directed at Theresa Villiers - was pretty immature. Remain like to portray themselves as being on the moral high ground. They're doing a good job at undermining that position at the moment.
I sense panic amongst the Europhiles. No positive case for remaining just insulting those advocating leaving the EU and scaremongering or outright lying in some cases.
BSE's campaign director Lucy Thomas is seriously out of her depth. I saw her on Sky News earlier talking complete rubbish about Norway and access to the single market. What is particularly infuriating is even after BSE have been proved wrong time and time again they will continue to spout nonsense. 3.10 mins in Robert Oulds from the Bruges Group completely destroys her. Thomas' knowledge of the EU is clearly limited to whatever soundbites she has been told to repeat.
The Leave campaign need to bang the message again and again about Norway and Switzerland being the two richest countries in Europe, and keep their campaign as positive as possible about the sunlit uplands outside of the EU. Boris mentioned that phrase this afternoon, we need much more of it from leave.
Norway is rich because it is a petro-state.
Focus on Switzerland.
With its 25% immigrant population. Focus on us staying in the single market and common standards and free movement of labour and people. Focus on Norways 15% immigrant population. Focus on being in the EEA is not much different to being in the EU. Why is it only I am offering a coherent option for us out of the EU.
'The Leave campaign need to bang the message again and again about Norway and Switzerland being the two richest countries in Europe, and keep their campaign as positive as possible about the sunlit uplands outside of the EU.'
Or maybe just ask how countries like Australia & Canada can be so prosperous & safe outside the EU ?
Canada is another bad example. They have huge oil wealth amongst other things. Australia boom was driven by mining.
'If only we all had Hungarian heated swimming pools, earned 20x the aver salary and voted for greenie parties. And thought rural people should pay extra and farming was unnecessary.'
You missed out the million pound apartment in Shoreditch, a salary not driven down by mass immigration, no kids to run the state school lottery & if the NHS is not great loads of money for private treatment
This is what LEAVE looks like. No wonder waverers are repulsed even when they think LEAVE might be right. Roundheads.
Err the Roundheads won didn't they ?
I don't think Boris could ever be characterised as a Roundhead. Ditto Galloway and Farage. If you do want to characterise this as Roundheads vs Cavaliers, then (with the exception of Gove) on bon vivant grounds, one would assign Cavalier to LEAVE and Roundhead to REMAIN.
Bone, Grayling, Gove, IDS, Carswell, Field, Hoey are all Roundheads, Farage and Galloway and Boris Cavaliers. Cameron and Osborne and Alan Johnson are Cavaliers, Javid, Sturgeon, Hammond, Corbyn, May Roundheads
'If only we all had Hungarian heated swimming pools, earned 20x the aver salary and voted for greenie parties. And thought rural people should pay extra and farming was unnecessary.'
You missed out the million pound apartment in Shoreditch, a salary not driven down by mass immigration, no kids to run the state school lottery & if the NHS is not great loads of money for private treatment
This is what LEAVE looks like. No wonder waverers are repulsed even when they think LEAVE might be right. Roundheads.
I found Mr Meeks's original comment - clearly directed at Theresa Villiers - was pretty immature. Remain like to portray themselves as being on the moral high ground. They're doing a good job at undermining that position at the moment.
I sense panic amongst the Europhiles. No positive case for remaining just insulting those advocating leaving the EU and scaremongering or outright lying in some cases.
BSE's campaign director Lucy Thomas is seriously out of her depth. I saw her on Sky News earlier talking complete rubbish about Norway and access to the single market. What is particularly infuriating is even after BSE have been proved wrong time and time again they will continue to spout nonsense. 3.10 mins in Robert Oulds from the Bruges Group completely destroys her. Thomas' knowledge of the EU is clearly limited to whatever soundbites she has been told to repeat.
I had a similar thought a week or so ago. AFAIK she comes from Roland Rudd's team and was placed as a SPAD inside this Govt to prepare for the Remain campaign.
I think when people quote Boris' favourability rating, they ignore the fact that Boris is not running a department. People outside London have a view of him shaped only by the media.
What does the people of Liverpool think of him ?
This is why Boris will not put himself at the front and centre of the Leave campaign. He's calculated what's best for him politically, now he'll leave it to others to do the heavy lifting in set-piece interviews, debates etc.
..... The Sunday Times Business quotes the city as being releived ar the outcome of the negotiations and satisfied with the safeguards and that 50 of the FTSE100 leaders will be writing an official letter of support for continued membership. ......
Will that include the companies controlled by the Government? Also the ones with very low corporation tax payments etc etc. In the current climate any major company considering entering the political sphere needs to ensure it has a squeaky clean image and a great record in paying tax and delivering customer service. People such as British Gas etc need to stay away.
That's an excellent piece, albeit with one thing I wouldn't agree on. Sarah says "But though Swiss exporters must meet EU standards when selling to the EU (just as they must meet Japanese standards when selling to Japan), they generally don’t apply those standards to their domestic economy" - the amount of manufacturing in Switzerland that is just for domestic consumption, and don't enter cross-border trade at some point must be miniscule.
I was involved in the creation of a very exciting energy storage company a couple of years ago. There was one global product because making 30,000 of one design was a lot cheaper than making three different production runs of 10,000 units. Whenever you buy a piece of electronics, on the bottom it has a bunch of different certifications - FCC, CE, etc. It's incredibly unlikely you'll find one that has FCC, but not CE, and vice versa.
Great to see there will be no Bush Mk III in the White House come next January. Now its time to ensure that there won't be a Clinton there too. Assuming the Republican side comes down to Rubio Trump, what's the best guess for how Cruz's voters would transfer to Rubio and Trump - 60:40 in Rubio's favour?
It will not come down to Rubio v Trump, as Rubio will suspend his campaign three weeks on Tuesday when Trump beats him in Florida. Cruz will likely win Texas, Arkansas and a few other states on Super Tuesday which will be enough to set up a straight contest with Trump lasting until the end of April
That depends on a lot what Kasich does.
By the way, what is Trump's view on health care ? I know he has sound bites against Obamacare but what if "Universal care" is mentioned.
What is Trump's position on Israel ? Same as every other US politician ?
Kasich will stay in until Super Tuesday but even if he did not Rubio will not get enough second preferences to close the gap with Trump to nothing. Trump is anti Obamacare but relatively moderate on healthcare as a whole, he is pro Israel but not fanatically so
'If only we all had Hungarian heated swimming pools, earned 20x the aver salary and voted for greenie parties. And thought rural people should pay extra and farming was unnecessary.'
You missed out the million pound apartment in Shoreditch, a salary not driven down by mass immigration, no kids to run the state school lottery & if the NHS is not great loads of money for private treatment
This is what LEAVE looks like. No wonder waverers are repulsed even when they think LEAVE might be right. Roundheads.
I found Mr Meeks's original comment - clearly directed at Theresa Villiers - was pretty immature. Remain like to portray themselves as being on the moral high ground. They're doing a good job at undermining that position at the moment.
I sense panic amongst the Europhiles. No positive case for remaining just insulting those advocating leaving the EU and scaremongering or outright lying in some cases.
BSE's campaign director Lucy Thomas is seriously out of her depth. I saw her on Sky News earlier talking complete rubbish about Norway and access to the single market. What is particularly infuriating is even after BSE have been proved wrong time and time again they will continue to spout nonsense. 3.10 mins in Robert Oulds from the Bruges Group completely destroys her. Thomas' knowledge of the EU is clearly limited to whatever soundbites she has been told to repeat.
I had a similar thought a week or so ago. AFAIK she comes from Roland Rudd's team and was placed as a SPAD inside this Govt to prepare for the Remain campaign.
She is an embarrassment.
As a Leave supporter I think she should handle all the difficult interviews.
To all those on PB who think the Tories are done for over the EU Ref..they could split..engage in bloody warfare..eat each others dead bodies on the battlefield..crap them out..eat them again.. crap them out... and still beat Corbyn in 2020
This is true.
The really big civil war may still be to come though given that there is no agreed Brexit strategy. Do all Tory Outers have the same aims?
To all those on PB who think the Tories are done for over the EU Ref..they could split..engage in bloody warfare..eat each others dead bodies on the battlefield..crap them out..eat them again.. crap them out... and still beat Corbyn in 2020
Maybe so. My concern is what they will look like and what they will do post referendum. They could be a lot worse for the country than at present.
In terms of his leadership ambitions, I don't think Boris has done himself any good with his dithering. The contrast with Michael Gove is very marked. Irrespective of which side of the Leave/Remain argument one leans, Boris looks either like someone who can't make a decision, or (worse still) like someone interested primarily on his career.
'The Leave campaign need to bang the message again and again about Norway and Switzerland being the two richest countries in Europe, and keep their campaign as positive as possible about the sunlit uplands outside of the EU.'
Or maybe just ask how countries like Australia & Canada can be so prosperous & safe outside the EU ?
To all those on PB who think the Tories are done for over the EU Ref..they could split..engage in bloody warfare..eat each others dead bodies on the battlefield..crap them out..eat them again.. crap them out... and still beat Corbyn in 2020
This is true.
The really big civil war may still be to come though given that there is no agreed Brexit strategy. Do all Tory Outers have the same aims?
No more than all remainers would have the same aims I should think.
That's an excellent piece, albeit with one thing I wouldn't agree on. Sarah says "But though Swiss exporters must meet EU standards when selling to the EU (just as they must meet Japanese standards when selling to Japan), they generally don’t apply those standards to their domestic economy" - the amount of manufacturing in Switzerland that is just for domestic consumption, and don't enter cross-border trade at some point must be miniscule.
I was involved in the creation of a very exciting energy storage company a couple of years ago. There was one global product because making 30,000 of one design was a lot cheaper than making three different production runs of 10,000 units. Whenever you buy a piece of electronics, on the bottom it has a bunch of different certifications - FCC, CE, etc. It's incredibly unlikely you'll find one that has FCC, but not CE, and vice versa.
That is true even in less high tech industries. Most new Zealand is halal, because it is easier to get some bloke to read a few words and open up the whole world market from a single facility than have two separate slaughter facilities.
In terms of his leadership ambitions, I don't think Boris has done himself any good with his dithering. The contrast with Michael Gove is very marked. Irrespective of which side of the Leave/Remain argument one leans, Boris looks either like someone who can't make a decision, or (worse still) like someone interested primarily on his career.
For once I agree with you. Do you think Gove has ambitions to be leader?
'If only we all had Hungarian heated swimming pools, earned 20x the aver salary and voted for greenie parties. And thought rural people should pay extra and farming was unnecessary.'
You missed out the million pound apartment in Shoreditch, a salary not driven down by mass immigration, no kids to run the state school lottery & if the NHS is not great loads of money for private treatment
This is what LEAVE looks like. No wonder waverers are repulsed even when they think LEAVE might be right. Roundheads.
I found Mr Meeks's original comment - clearly directed at Theresa Villiers - was pretty immature. Remain like to portray themselves as being on the moral high ground. They're doing a good job at undermining that position at the moment.
I sense panic amongst the Europhiles. No positive case for remaining just insulting those advocating leaving the EU and scaremongering or outright lying in some cases.
BSE's campaign director Lucy Thomas is seriously out of her depth. I saw her on Sky News earlier talking complete rubbish about Norway and access to the single market. What is particularly infuriating is even after BSE have been proved wrong time and time again they will continue to spout nonsense. 3.10 mins in Robert Oulds from the Bruges Group completely destroys her. Thomas' knowledge of the EU is clearly limited to whatever soundbites she has been told to repeat.
The Leave campaign need to bang the message again and again about Norway and Switzerland being the two richest countries in Europe, and keep their campaign as positive as possible about the sunlit uplands outside of the EU. Boris mentioned that phrase this afternoon, we need much more of it from leave.
Norway is rich because it is a petro-state.
Focus on Switzerland.
Actually technically Luxembourg is the richest nation in Europe and has been in the EU/EEC since its foundation
Luxembourg is a microstate. It would be like comparing the UK to Monaco.
so far today REMAINIANS have complained about Boris showboating and milking the media. Now they simultaneously say he's lying low and foolishly uncommitted.
Lol. They're frit.
|Yes Cameron is FRIT of debating with Farage - funny attitude to take when he said he would strive with all his might for a Remain vote.
Osborne is frit of the dangers of leaving the EU - danger = opportunity.
I'm calling them "THE FRIT TWINS" - might make a good book out of that.
Great to see there will be no Bush Mk III in the White House come next January. Now its time to ensure that there won't be a Clinton there too. Assuming the Republican side comes down to Rubio Trump, what's the best guess for how Cruz's voters would transfer to Rubio and Trump - 60:40 in Rubio's favour?
I suspect Cruz's base would tend to slide to Rubio first but I've no absolute evidence.
Rubio's bigger issue is that Trump is fighting him for a decent segment of the GOP vote, your workaday Republicans. There is this idea that Trump somehow isn't getting some very regular, everyday GOP voters but he clearly hasn't invented a completely new batch of people.
Rubio needs to take some of them away.
I am just waiting for Trump to attack Rubio. He has taken care of Carson, Cruz, Bush.... Rubio must be next in line.
'If only we all had Hungarian heated swimming pools, earned 20x the aver salary and voted for greenie parties. And thought rural people should pay extra and farming was unnecessary.'
You missed out the million pound apartment in Shoreditch, a salary not driven down by mass immigration, no kids to run the state school lottery & if the NHS is not great loads of money for private treatment
This is what LEAVE looks like. No wonder waverers are repulsed even when they think LEAVE might be right. Roundheads.
I found Mr Meeks's original comment - clearly directed at Theresa Villiers - was pretty immature. Remain like to portray themselves as being on the moral high ground. They're doing a good job at undermining that position at the moment.
I sense panic amongst the Europhiles. No positive case for remaining just insulting those advocating leaving the EU and scaremongering or outright lying in some cases.
BSE's campaign director Lucy Thomas is seriously out of her depth. I saw her on Sky News earlier talking complete rubbish about Norway and access to the single market. What is particularly infuriating is even after BSE have been proved wrong time and time again they will continue to spout nonsense. 3.10 mins in Robert Oulds from the Bruges Group completely destroys her. Thomas' knowledge of the EU is clearly limited to whatever soundbites she has been told to repeat.
so far today REMAINIANS have complained about Boris showboating and milking the media. Now they simultaneously say he's lying low and foolishly uncommitted.
Lol. They're frit.
|Yes Cameron is FRIT of debating with Farage - funny attitude to take when he said he would strive with all his might for a Remain vote.
Osborne is frit of the dangers of leaving the EU - danger = opportunity.
I'm calling them "THE FRIT TWINS" - might make a good book out of that.
Boris is smart. By being Out, but not too loudly Out, he can be the unity candidate after a narrow In, and well as being the leading candidate in the event of an Out.
In terms of his leadership ambitions, I don't think Boris has done himself any good with his dithering. The contrast with Michael Gove is very marked. Irrespective of which side of the Leave/Remain argument one leans, Boris looks either like someone who can't make a decision, or (worse still) like someone interested primarily on his career.
You don't think the Gove/Johnson partnership could be quite a powerful combination (Gove the brains, Johnson the "front man") then?
OK I feel like facing a dilemma that I never imagined and genuinely no longer know how to vote or who to support. I'm feeling turned off by everyone.
I can't stand the argument to stay in the EU so that Parliament can't decide on social issues and we keep unproductive socialist 'rights'. Parliament should be sovereign. I can't stand the argument to leave the EU to stop immigration, I think reciprocal free movement between developed economies is a good thing.
I've despised "obsessed about Europe" Tories since the 90's. I couldn't stand IDS or Redwood. I could never imagine wanting to Leave. But Gove's leave argument was very convincing and well written and I really am not sure whether or why I want to Remain anymore.
Ultimately I am currently thinking that the absolute worst case scenario is a narrow Remain win that keeps this like an open sore. Better either a Remain landslide (over 60%) or any Leave victory that makes Parliament sovereign and closes this once and for all. I'm genuinely no longer sure which I prefer though.
Feels very weird not to be sure how to vote during a campaign.
To all those on PB who think the Tories are done for over the EU Ref..they could split..engage in bloody warfare..eat each others dead bodies on the battlefield..crap them out..eat them again.. crap them out... and still beat Corbyn in 2020
This is true.
The really big civil war may still be to come though given that there is no agreed Brexit strategy. Do all Tory Outers have the same aims?
No more than all remainers would have the same aims I should think.
But Brexit would have to be negotiated immediately. What will the position be on freedom of movement, for example? We know what it will be if we stay. Boris dors not seem to have a problem with it and wants a free trade deal with the EU that has more protection for the City, which also supports free movement. Is that what we get if he is PM? Does the Tory right support that, let alone UKIP?
Does anyone remember that program on Channel 4 about the first 100 days of a UKIP government? Are they going to do another about the first 100 days ater a vote to leave the EU? A general feeling of jollity in the nation, street parties, etc, the devious (deviant) Europhiles packing their bags to go live in the EU - go on Channel 4 and Jon Snow, you know you want to!
Actually, I suspect the first 100 days would be an orgy of hard work as (a) we would then need to work out what relationship we would have with the EU, and then after that (b) civil servants and politicians rushed to negotiate new trade deals and to draft new legislation to take over from the point when - two years later - we were officially free.
While there would be hope in the air, there would also be trepidation.
I think in reality we would be bogged down in trade talks for years.
Would it be that hard to pull the EFTA agreements off the shelf, approach the same partners they have, strike the same/similar deals - except with the EU?
With the EU, they'd have to have a rethink given their substantial profit from dealing with us.
'If only we all had Hungarian heated swimming pools, earned 20x the aver salary and voted for greenie parties. And thought rural people should pay extra and farming was unnecessary.'
You missed out the million pound apartment in Shoreditch, a salary not driven down by mass immigration, no kids to run the state school lottery & if the NHS is not great loads of money for private treatment
This is what LEAVE looks like. No wonder waverers are repulsed even when they think LEAVE might be right. Roundheads.
I found Mr Meeks's original comment - clearly directed at Theresa Villiers - was pretty immature. Remain like to portray themselves as being on the moral high ground. They're doing a good job at undermining that position at the moment.
I sense panic amongst the Europhiles. No positive case for remaining just insulting those advocating leaving the EU and scaremongering or outright lying in some cases.
BSE's campaign director Lucy Thomas is seriously out of her depth. I saw her on Sky News earlier talking complete rubbish about Norway and access to the single market. What is particularly infuriating is even after BSE have been proved wrong time and time again they will continue to spout nonsense. 3.10 mins in Robert Oulds from the Bruges Group completely destroys her. Thomas' knowledge of the EU is clearly limited to whatever soundbites she has been told to repeat.
Gerard Lyons @DrGerardLyons "3/ Chief Exec of CityUK praised the deal ... I am on the board of CityUK & thought deal far from what City wanted or needed"
Yes, but for the most part the deal has been well received by the City.
What we really need is a heavyweight report by City lawyers on the effect on the City of the three options (Remain, Leave/EEA, Leave/Something else). I expect there will be some such reports over the next couple of months.
To all those on PB who think the Tories are done for over the EU Ref..they could split..engage in bloody warfare..eat each others dead bodies on the battlefield..crap them out..eat them again.. crap them out... and still beat Corbyn in 2020
They should not assume they will be facing Corbyn. Imo they probably will but I wouldn't put it any more strongly than that and there are knowledgeable Labour people - eg Henry G Manson on here a few weeks ago - who think he'll be replaced.
To all those on PB who think the Tories are done for over the EU Ref..they could split..engage in bloody warfare..eat each others dead bodies on the battlefield..crap them out..eat them again.. crap them out... and still beat Corbyn in 2020
Maybe so. My concern is what they will look like and what they will do post referendum. They could be a lot worse for the country than at present.
We are at Feb 2016. Election is May 2020. How many of Harold Wilsons long weeks is that. Between now and June is a blip. As for splits, there is ample opportunity for that in households all across the country. To be fair, my wife who normally takes a different line to me, is quite sympathetic to Cameron over this. The sense of certanty among so many on PB is quite laughable to behold. There are so many mind readers and futurologists that you should all get together and work out an act for Las Vegas.
so far today REMAINIANS have complained about Boris showboating and milking the media. Now they simultaneously say he's lying low and foolishly uncommitted.
Lol. They're frit.
|Yes Cameron is FRIT of debating with Farage - funny attitude to take when he said he would strive with all his might for a Remain vote.
Osborne is frit of the dangers of leaving the EU - danger = opportunity.
I'm calling them "THE FRIT TWINS" - might make a good book out of that.
If I were advising Dave, I'd say go for it with Farage. Make it a big centrepiece of the campaign - a week before the vote.
one on one.
Prime minister vs fruitcake.
Advice for the leavers; keep Farage in the pub. He can do "strategy" or something.
In terms of his leadership ambitions, I don't think Boris has done himself any good with his dithering. The contrast with Michael Gove is very marked. Irrespective of which side of the Leave/Remain argument one leans, Boris looks either like someone who can't make a decision, or (worse still) like someone interested primarily on his career.
You don't think the Gove/Johnson partnership could be quite a powerful combination (Gove the brains, Johnson the "front man") then?
Yes, but I was talking about Boris' leadership ambitions.
On the referendum itself, Boris is obviously an asset to Leave. However, he'd have been more of an asset if he didn't look motivated by his leadership ambitions.
To all those on PB who think the Tories are done for over the EU Ref..they could split..engage in bloody warfare..eat each others dead bodies on the battlefield..crap them out..eat them again.. crap them out... and still beat Corbyn in 2020
This is true.
The really big civil war may still be to come though given that there is no agreed Brexit strategy. Do all Tory Outers have the same aims?
No more than all remainers would have the same aims I should think.
But Brexit would have to be negotiated immediately. What will the position be on freedom of movement, for example? We know what it will be if we stay. Boris dors not seem to have a problem with it and wants a free trade deal with the EU that has more protection for the City, which also supports free movement. Is that what we get if he is PM? Does the Tory right support that, let alone UKIP?
LEAVE has many policy variations within it. Starting from Little Englander to just protecting the City [ or, more precisely, giving it an unfair advantage ]
Does anyone remember that program on Channel 4 about the first 100 days of a UKIP government? Are they going to do another about the first 100 days ater a vote to leave the EU? A general feeling of jollity in the nation, street parties, etc, the devious (deviant) Europhiles packing their bags to go live in the EU - go on Channel 4 and Jon Snow, you know you want to!
Actually, I suspect the first 100 days would be an orgy of hard work as (a) we would then need to work out what relationship we would have with the EU, and then after that (b) civil servants and politicians rushed to negotiate new trade deals and to draft new legislation to take over from the point when - two years later - we were officially free.
While there would be hope in the air, there would also be trepidation.
I think in reality we would be bogged down in trade talks for years.
Would it be that hard to pull the EFTA agreements off the shelf, approach the same partners they have, strike the same/similar deals - except with the EU?
The easiest, and simplest, option is for us to go "Full EFTA". That is, we'd rejoin EFTA, and with it all of its existing trade agreements - with the EU, Canada, etc.
The next easiest would be for us to go the Swiss route, and negotiate bilateral treaties with the EU like Switzerland has done. This would be harder, as there there would be a lot of 'one on one' discussions with the EU, and it could take a long, long time.
Ken Clark or Boris? Everyone loves a clown but unless people treat this referendum as a trip to the circus when it comes to trusting the judgement of the respective sides the amiable and always reasonable Ken will trump Boris every day of the week.
Alistaire Meeks is right. The team line-ups look like Respected Public Figures V The Mavericks and the more high profile chancers like Boris that join the more oddball the Maverics seem.
The Maastricht Rebels were a perfect template for this. All we remember is a man in a funny striped jacket and a strange short lady surrounded by some seriously odd grinning blokes. I daresay they were all serious but collectively they came across as a freak-show
This isn't a reflection on the wit and wisdom of Boris it's just that most people see him as a joke. Joining a team with players seen as weird and even slightly sinister like Gove Farage IDS and Galloway makes them collectively look like Maastricht Rebels MK2
To all those on PB who think the Tories are done for over the EU Ref..they could split..engage in bloody warfare..eat each others dead bodies on the battlefield..crap them out..eat them again.. crap them out... and still beat Corbyn in 2020
This is true.
The really big civil war may still be to come though given that there is no agreed Brexit strategy. Do all Tory Outers have the same aims?
No more than all remainers would have the same aims I should think.
But Brexit would have to be negotiated immediately. What will the position be on freedom of movement, for example? We know what it will be if we stay. Boris dors not seem to have a problem with it and wants a free trade deal with the EU that has more protection for the City, which also supports free movement. Is that what we get if he is PM? Does the Tory right support that, let alone UKIP?
To all those on PB who think the Tories are done for over the EU Ref..they could split..engage in bloody warfare..eat each others dead bodies on the battlefield..crap them out..eat them again.. crap them out... and still beat Corbyn in 2020
This is true.
The really big civil war may still be to come though given that there is no agreed Brexit strategy. Do all Tory Outers have the same aims?
No more than all remainers would have the same aims I should think.
But Brexit would have to be negotiated immediately. What will the position be on freedom of movement, for example? We know what it will be if we stay. Boris dors not seem to have a problem with it and wants a free trade deal with the EU that has more protection for the City, which also supports free movement. Is that what we get if he is PM? Does the Tory right support that, let alone UKIP?
Really you're just trolling and it sticks out a mile.
Maybe it's just me, but I hope that ministers haven't been deciding which way to lean based on how it would impact their leadership prospects. Country first and all that.
Does anyone remember that program on Channel 4 about the first 100 days of a UKIP government? Are they going to do another about the first 100 days ater a vote to leave the EU? A general feeling of jollity in the nation, street parties, etc, the devious (deviant) Europhiles packing their bags to go live in the EU - go on Channel 4 and Jon Snow, you know you want to!
Actually, I suspect the first 100 days would be an orgy of hard work as (a) we would then need to work out what relationship we would have with the EU, and then after that (b) civil servants and politicians rushed to negotiate new trade deals and to draft new legislation to take over from the point when - two years later - we were officially free.
While there would be hope in the air, there would also be trepidation.
I think in reality we would be bogged down in trade talks for years.
Would it be that hard to pull the EFTA agreements off the shelf, approach the same partners they have, strike the same/similar deals - except with the EU?
With the EU, they'd have to have a rethink given their substantial profit from dealing with us.
In theory you would think it would be possible, but Unfortunately as we know all too well these things always get bogged down. Would make Cameron latest eu panto look quick & easy.
To all those on PB who think the Tories are done for over the EU Ref..they could split..engage in bloody warfare..eat each others dead bodies on the battlefield..crap them out..eat them again.. crap them out... and still beat Corbyn in 2020
This is true.
The really big civil war may still be to come though given that there is no agreed Brexit strategy. Do all Tory Outers have the same aims?
No more than all remainers would have the same aims I should think.
But Brexit would have to be negotiated immediately. What will the position be on freedom of movement, for example? We know what it will be if we stay. Boris dors not seem to have a problem with it and wants a free trade deal with the EU that has more protection for the City, which also supports free movement. Is that what we get if he is PM? Does the Tory right support that, let alone UKIP?
Really you're just trolling and it sticks out a mile.
Fair enough. If you don't have an answer so be it.
Big worry for Labour is that it now feels there's a genuine opposition leader and it's Bojo.
Bojo for me in no lose position. Brexit wins, he's next leader and PM. We vote stay, Cameron has to reunite Tory party, therefore has to give Boris big job, Boris still most popular politician in the country who stands up for his principles.
'If only we all had Hungarian heated swimming pools, earned 20x the aver salary and voted for greenie parties. And thought rural people should pay extra and farming was unnecessary.'
You missed out the million pound apartment in Shoreditch, a salary not driven down by mass immigration, no kids to run the state school lottery & if the NHS is not great loads of money for private treatment
This is what LEAVE looks like. No wonder waverers are repulsed even when they think LEAVE might be right. Roundheads.
Err the Roundheads won didn't they ?
They won. Then a decade later people got sick of them, and they went back to the way things were, apparently for ever
Maybe it's just me, but I hope that ministers haven't been deciding which way to lean based on how it would impact their leadership prospects. Country first and all that.
Politicians doing what is best for their careers over the best for the country....never I say never happens...
'If only we all had Hungarian heated swimming pools, earned 20x the aver salary and voted for greenie parties. And thought rural people should pay extra and farming was unnecessary.'
You missed out the million pound apartment in Shoreditch, a salary not driven down by mass immigration, no kids to run the state school lottery & if the NHS is not great loads of money for private treatment
This is what LEAVE looks like. No wonder waverers are repulsed even when they think LEAVE might be right. Roundheads.
I found Mr Meeks's original comment - clearly directed at Theresa Villiers - was pretty immature. Remain like to portray themselves as being on the moral high ground. They're doing a good job at undermining that position at the moment.
I sense panic amongst the Europhiles. No positive case for remaining just insulting those advocating leaving the EU and scaremongering or outright lying in some cases.
BSE's campaign director Lucy Thomas is seriously out of her depth. I saw her on Sky News earlier talking complete rubbish about Norway and access to the single market. What is particularly infuriating is even after BSE have been proved wrong time and time again they will continue to spout nonsense. 3.10 mins in Robert Oulds from the Bruges Group completely destroys her. Thomas' knowledge of the EU is clearly limited to whatever soundbites she has been told to repeat.
The Leave campaign need to bang the message again and again about Norway and Switzerland being the two richest countries in Europe, and keep their campaign as positive as possible about the sunlit uplands outside of the EU. Boris mentioned that phrase this afternoon, we need much more of it from leave.
Norway is rich because it is a petro-state.
Focus on Switzerland.
Actually technically Luxembourg is the richest nation in Europe and has been in the EU/EEC since its foundation
Luxembourg is a microstate. It would be like comparing the UK to Monaco.
It is a sovereign nation regardless with almost 20 times the population of Monaco and Norway and Switzerland are not exactly big nations either
To all those on PB who think the Tories are done for over the EU Ref..they could split..engage in bloody warfare..eat each others dead bodies on the battlefield..crap them out..eat them again.. crap them out... and still beat Corbyn in 2020
This is true.
The really big civil war may still be to come though given that there is no agreed Brexit strategy. Do all Tory Outers have the same aims?
No more than all remainers would have the same aims I should think.
But Brexit would have to be negotiated immediately. What will the position be on freedom of movement, for example? We know what it will be if we stay. Boris dors not seem to have a problem with it and wants a free trade deal with the EU that has more protection for the City, which also supports free movement. Is that what we get if he is PM? Does the Tory right support that, let alone UKIP?
LEAVE has many policy variations within it. Starting from Little Englander to just protecting the City [ or, more precisely, giving it an unfair advantage ]
Which is why I point out that a Leave vote would just be the beginning of chaotic splits
Big worry for Labour is that it now feels there's a genuine opposition leader and it's Bojo.
Bojo for me in no lose position. Brexit wins, he's next leader and PM. We vote stay, Cameron has to reunite Tory party, therefore has to give Boris big job, Boris still most popular politician in the country who stands up for his principles.
Boris always takes a principled stand for whatever Boris calculates as most helpful to Boris.
Ken Clark or Boris? Everyone loves a clown but unless people treat this referendum as a trip to the circus when it comes to trusting the judgement of the respective sides the amiable and always reasonable Ken will trump Boris every day of the week.
You could have said the same in 2008 and 2012 with a different Ken.
Maybe it's just me, but I hope that ministers haven't been deciding which way to lean based on how it would impact their leadership prospects. Country first and all that.
Politicians doing what is best for their careers over the best for the country....never I say never happens...
To all those on PB who think the Tories are done for over the EU Ref..they could split..engage in bloody warfare..eat each others dead bodies on the battlefield..crap them out..eat them again.. crap them out... and still beat Corbyn in 2020
This is true.
The really big civil war may still be to come though given that there is no agreed Brexit strategy. Do all Tory Outers have the same aims?
No more than all remainers would have the same aims I should think.
But Brexit would have to be negotiated immediately. What will the position be on freedom of movement, for example? We know what it will be if we stay. Boris dors not seem to have a problem with it and wants a free trade deal with the EU that has more protection for the City, which also supports free movement. Is that what we get if he is PM? Does the Tory right support that, let alone UKIP?
LEAVE has many policy variations within it. Starting from Little Englander to just protecting the City [ or, more precisely, giving it an unfair advantage ]
In terms of his leadership ambitions, I don't think Boris has done himself any good with his dithering. The contrast with Michael Gove is very marked. Irrespective of which side of the Leave/Remain argument one leans, Boris looks either like someone who can't make a decision, or (worse still) like someone interested primarily on his career.
For once I agree with you. Do you think Gove has ambitions to be leader?
No, I don't (and he's on record as saying he doesn't).
But, who knows? If it is Leave, the party and the political landscape will look very different, and as someone who is a sane Leaver, highly regarded by the Cameroon tendency, he'd be a potential unifying figure and someone credible to lead the exit negotiations.
To all those on PB who think the Tories are done for over the EU Ref..they could split..engage in bloody warfare..eat each others dead bodies on the battlefield..crap them out..eat them again.. crap them out... and still beat Corbyn in 2020
This is true.
The really big civil war may still be to come though given that there is no agreed Brexit strategy. Do all Tory Outers have the same aims?
No more than all remainers would have the same aims I should think.
But Brexit would have to be negotiated immediately. What will the position be on freedom of movement, for example? We know what it will be if we stay. Boris dors not seem to have a problem with it and wants a free trade deal with the EU that has more protection for the City, which also supports free movement. Is that what we get if he is PM? Does the Tory right support that, let alone UKIP?
Be perfect for me.
Yep, it seems a good part of the Tory Out side is focused on looking after the City and is not that concerned about limiting free movement of people. Boris is certainly in that camp, as are a few on here. They could probably get a Brexit deal done pretty quickly. Msybe it wouldn't even end up as a full Brexit. But my guess is that this would not meet with universal approval, to say the least, on the Out side.
To all those on PB who think the Tories are done for over the EU Ref..they could split..engage in bloody warfare..eat each others dead bodies on the battlefield..crap them out..eat them again.. crap them out... and still beat Corbyn in 2020
This is true.
The really big civil war may still be to come though given that there is no agreed Brexit strategy. Do all Tory Outers have the same aims?
No more than all remainers would have the same aims I should think.
But Brexit would have to be negotiated immediately. What will the position be on freedom of movement, for example? We know what it will be if we stay. Boris dors not seem to have a problem with it and wants a free trade deal with the EU that has more protection for the City, which also supports free movement. Is that what we get if he is PM? Does the Tory right support that, let alone UKIP?
LEAVE has many policy variations within it. Starting from Little Englander to just protecting the City [ or, more precisely, giving it an unfair advantage ]
There is nothing unfair proposed.
What's wrong with giving the city an unfair advantage? Isn't it the same as a country lowering corporation tax, for instance?
In terms of his leadership ambitions, I don't think Boris has done himself any good with his dithering. The contrast with Michael Gove is very marked. Irrespective of which side of the Leave/Remain argument one leans, Boris looks either like someone who can't make a decision, or (worse still) like someone interested primarily on his career.
Will this dithering episode seem important by the time of the leadership election? All the candidates will have weaknesses. Is this one critical in someone who undeniably cuts through to swing voters?
(I'm very interested in the question of Boris's prospects. He's come in on Betfair of course, was actually favourite a few minutes ago. That's market overreaction I think. But he has surely done himself *some* good today?
I am currently mildly red on a Boris win. Would be interested to know what long-term Boris layers think about his latest antics.)
To all those on PB who think the Tories are done for over the EU Ref..they could split..engage in bloody warfare..eat each others dead bodies on the battlefield..crap them out..eat them again.. crap them out... and still beat Corbyn in 2020
This is true.
The really big civil war may still be to come though given that there is no agreed Brexit strategy. Do all Tory Outers have the same aims?
No more than all remainers would have the same aims I should think.
But Brexit would have to be negotiated immediately. What will the position be on freedom of movement, for example? We know what it will be if we stay. Boris dors not seem to have a problem with it and wants a free trade deal with the EU that has more protection for the City, which also supports free movement. Is that what we get if he is PM? Does the Tory right support that, let alone UKIP?
Really you're just trolling and it sticks out a mile.
Fair enough. If you don't have an answer so be it.
No more than you do.
Post a remain vote as is likely do you stop UK relationship dead or when the Commsssion press on with ever closer union some remainers push will for joining and while others regret voting remain as it wasn't what they were promised.
Both sides have fairly broad churches and it;s pretty daft to say there is one answer which sums either side.
Gerard Lyons @DrGerardLyons "3/ Chief Exec of CityUK praised the deal ... I am on the board of CityUK & thought deal far from what City wanted or needed"
Yes, but for the most part the deal has been well received by the City.
What we really need is a heavyweight report by City lawyers on the effect on the City of the three options (Remain, Leave/EEA, Leave/Something else). I expect there will be some such reports over the next couple of months.
Does anybody really know? Many experts said the decision to stay out of the euro was curtains for the City, and the opposite happened.
There are risks for coming out (not being in the EU) and staying in (The EU wants to destroy the City).
for me the risks of staying in outweigh the risks of coming out. Its a leap in the dark either way.
'If only we all had Hungarian heated swimming pools, earned 20x the aver salary and voted for greenie parties. And thought rural people should pay extra and farming was unnecessary.'
You missed out the million pound apartment in Shoreditch, a salary not driven down by mass immigration, no kids to run the state school lottery & if the NHS is not great loads of money for private treatment
This is what LEAVE looks like. No wonder waverers are repulsed even when they think LEAVE might be right. Roundheads.
Err the Roundheads won didn't they ?
They won. Then a decade later people got sick of them, and they went back to the way things were, apparently for ever
To all those on PB who think the Tories are done for over the EU Ref..they could split..engage in bloody warfare..eat each others dead bodies on the battlefield..crap them out..eat them again.. crap them out... and still beat Corbyn in 2020
This is true.
The really big civil war may still be to come though given that there is no agreed Brexit strategy. Do all Tory Outers have the same aims?
No more than all remainers would have the same aims I should think.
But Brexit would have to be negotiated immediately. What will the position be on freedom of movement, for example? We know what it will be if we stay. Boris dors not seem to have a problem with it and wants a free trade deal with the EU that has more protection for the City, which also supports free movement. Is that what we get if he is PM? Does the Tory right support that, let alone UKIP?
LEAVE has many policy variations within it. Starting from Little Englander to just protecting the City [ or, more precisely, giving it an unfair advantage ]
There is nothing unfair proposed.
What's wrong with giving the city an unfair advantage? Isn't it the same as a country lowering corporation tax, for instance?
I don't see what's unfair about that either. Every country should have the freedom to lower taxes and high taxes are not inately fair. This idea of lowest socialist denominator with anything else being unfair is sclerotic and ludicrous ... plus it ignores the fact the world exists outside the EU's borders.
Gerard Lyons @DrGerardLyons "3/ Chief Exec of CityUK praised the deal ... I am on the board of CityUK & thought deal far from what City wanted or needed"
Yes, but for the most part the deal has been well received by the City.
What we really need is a heavyweight report by City lawyers on the effect on the City of the three options (Remain, Leave/EEA, Leave/Something else). I expect there will be some such reports over the next couple of months.
There have been loads of such reports already. They ping into my inbox on a daily basis.
To all those on PB who think the Tories are done for over the EU Ref..they could split..engage in bloody warfare..eat each others dead bodies on the battlefield..crap them out..eat them again.. crap them out... and still beat Corbyn in 2020
This is true.
The really big civil war may still be to come though given that there is no agreed Brexit strategy. Do all Tory Outers have the same aims?
No more than all remainers would have the same aims I should think.
But Brexit would have to be negotiated immediately. What will the position be on freedom of movement, for example? We know what it will be if we stay. Boris dors not seem to have a problem with it and wants a free trade deal with the EU that has more protection for the City, which also supports free movement. Is that what we get if he is PM? Does the Tory right support that, let alone UKIP?
Really you're just trolling and it sticks out a mile.
Fair enough. If you don't have an answer so be it.
No more than you do.
Post a remain vote as is likely do you stop UK relationship dead or when the Commsssion press on with ever closer union some remainers push will for joining and while others regret voting remain as it wasn't what they were promised.
Both sides have fairly broad churches and it;s pretty daft to say there is one answer which sums either side.
Hence the possibility of a major row on the Leave side over Brexit terms. I do, indeed, have no idea. Neither does anyone else. And no-one can provide a definitive answer. The day after a Remain vote we will know exactly where we are. The day after a Leave vote we will have no clue at all.
Comments
Well we can't say politics is going to be dull in 2016 now. The next 4 months are mouthwatering, and Hillary Trump would be fireworks for sure. Then there is 2017, the political year from hell with a real prospect that Marine Le Pen could win the French presidency if as I suspect the sovereign bond crisis has spread to France in the eurozone by then, and we also have German elections in a highly volatile climate too.
Rcs1000 poured cold water on the 8.6 x 6 = 51.6 year political cycle. In France that comes up in 2019 after the previous peak with the soixante huitards as they came to be known in 1968. For the UK our cycle took in the 1926 general strike and the 1979 winter of discontent near enough on that cycle, which suggests that things could be tasty here around 2030 to put it mildly.
"The Leave folk look a bit odd, sub standard, thick, unattractive, not normal, almost defective, possibly bordering on special needs"
How can they use that with Boris part of the team? Killing off an attack line in almost one fell swoop.
And when they do, it's ludicrous assertions.
They need to get a grip and some serious PR help.
But Boris entered Palookaville in May when Dave won a majority. His fox was shot at that point.
A general feeling of jollity in the nation, street parties, etc, the devious (deviant) Europhiles packing their bags to go live in the EU - go on Channel 4 and Jon Snow, you know you want to!
I think Boris helps Leave a bit, since whatever people think of him, they don't see him as a miserable, old-fashioned crackpot - which IS the public perception of Farage/UKIP. But they are still badly lacking someone who can reassure the public that leaving isn't risky, and someone who can win tribal Labour voters (as I keep banging on about, there are many traditional Labour voters who in isolation might well agree with most of Leave's arguments, but will nonetheless tell you that their parents would "turn in their graves" if they were to ever vote Tory--so many won't vote Leave if they perceive it to be a Tory-only affair).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4pQB2i-bdd0
Hoping for some fireworks from the Rocket now to down the Thunder from down under. Come on Ronnie! Great sportmanship from Robertson in the final frame this afternoon to point out the three misses rule.....respect.
SKY
Stating that Cameron aides are describing Boris as "stabbing the PM in the back".
Bitter? Teenage tantrums?
While there would be hope in the air, there would also be trepidation.
Focus on Switzerland.
What Boris has not done other than a generality is suggest where we ought to go, how we sensibly get there and define just what the end term difference will really be.
The Sunday Times Business quotes the city as being releived ar the outcome of the negotiations and satisfied with the safeguards and that 50 of the FTSE100 leaders will be writing an official letter of support for continued membership.
David Smith the Sunday Times Economics Editor confirms that immigration has a net economic benefit and that net migration from the EU is lower than other migration and that of the (larger) remainder a significant part is students here to study.
By the way, what is Trump's view on health care ? I know he has sound bites against Obamacare but what if "Universal care" is mentioned.
What is Trump's position on Israel ? Same as every other US politician ?
http://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/01/what-brexit-would-look-like-for-britain/
'The Leave campaign need to bang the message again and again about Norway and Switzerland being the two richest countries in Europe, and keep their campaign as positive as possible about the sunlit uplands outside of the EU.'
Or maybe just ask how countries like Australia & Canada can be so prosperous & safe outside the EU ?
Focus on us staying in the single market and common standards and free movement of labour and people. Focus on Norways 15% immigrant population.
Focus on being in the EEA is not much different to being in the EU.
Why is it only I am offering a coherent option for us out of the EU.
I was involved in the creation of a very exciting energy storage company a couple of years ago. There was one global product because making 30,000 of one design was a lot cheaper than making three different production runs of 10,000 units. Whenever you buy a piece of electronics, on the bottom it has a bunch of different certifications - FCC, CE, etc. It's incredibly unlikely you'll find one that has FCC, but not CE, and vice versa.
The really big civil war may still be to come though given that there is no agreed Brexit strategy. Do all Tory Outers have the same aims?
We're not a good comparison.
Canada has a somewhat more balanced economy, but its biggest export (as with Norway) is oil.
Switzerland should be the model we compare ourselves to.
Osborne is frit of the dangers of leaving the EU - danger = opportunity.
I'm calling them "THE FRIT TWINS" - might make a good book out of that.
I can't stand the argument to stay in the EU so that Parliament can't decide on social issues and we keep unproductive socialist 'rights'. Parliament should be sovereign.
I can't stand the argument to leave the EU to stop immigration, I think reciprocal free movement between developed economies is a good thing.
I've despised "obsessed about Europe" Tories since the 90's. I couldn't stand IDS or Redwood. I could never imagine wanting to Leave. But Gove's leave argument was very convincing and well written and I really am not sure whether or why I want to Remain anymore.
Ultimately I am currently thinking that the absolute worst case scenario is a narrow Remain win that keeps this like an open sore. Better either a Remain landslide (over 60%) or any Leave victory that makes Parliament sovereign and closes this once and for all. I'm genuinely no longer sure which I prefer though.
Feels very weird not to be sure how to vote during a campaign.
With the EU, they'd have to have a rethink given their substantial profit from dealing with us.
What we really need is a heavyweight report by City lawyers on the effect on the City of the three options (Remain, Leave/EEA, Leave/Something else). I expect there will be some such reports over the next couple of months.
The sense of certanty among so many on PB is quite laughable to behold. There are so many mind readers and futurologists that you should all get together and work out an act for Las Vegas.
one on one.
Prime minister vs fruitcake.
Advice for the leavers; keep Farage in the pub. He can do "strategy" or something.
On the referendum itself, Boris is obviously an asset to Leave. However, he'd have been more of an asset if he didn't look motivated by his leadership ambitions.
The next easiest would be for us to go the Swiss route, and negotiate bilateral treaties with the EU like Switzerland has done. This would be harder, as there there would be a lot of 'one on one' discussions with the EU, and it could take a long, long time.
Alistaire Meeks is right. The team line-ups look like Respected Public Figures V The Mavericks and the more high profile chancers like Boris that join the more oddball the Maverics seem.
The Maastricht Rebels were a perfect template for this. All we remember is a man in a funny striped jacket and a strange short lady surrounded by some seriously odd grinning blokes. I daresay they were all serious but collectively they came across as a freak-show
This isn't a reflection on the wit and wisdom of Boris it's just that most people see him as a joke. Joining a team with players seen as weird and even slightly sinister like Gove Farage IDS and Galloway makes them collectively look like Maastricht Rebels MK2
Boris 4 PM!
Boris 4 PM!
Bojo for me in no lose position. Brexit wins, he's next leader and PM. We vote stay, Cameron has to reunite Tory party, therefore has to give Boris big job, Boris still most popular politician in the country who stands up for his principles.
Then a decade later people got sick of them, and they went back to the way things were, apparently for ever
You take away the fear factor and leave has a chance. Don't take it away, it doesn't matter who is running Leave, it won't succeed.
But, who knows? If it is Leave, the party and the political landscape will look very different, and as someone who is a sane Leaver, highly regarded by the Cameroon tendency, he'd be a potential unifying figure and someone credible to lead the exit negotiations.
(I'm very interested in the question of Boris's prospects. He's come in on Betfair of course, was actually favourite a few minutes ago. That's market overreaction I think. But he has surely done himself *some* good today?
I am currently mildly red on a Boris win. Would be interested to know what long-term Boris layers think about his latest antics.)
Post a remain vote as is likely do you stop UK relationship dead or when the Commsssion press on with ever closer union some remainers push will for joining and while others regret voting remain as it wasn't what they were promised.
Both sides have fairly broad churches and it;s pretty daft to say there is one answer which sums either side.
There are risks for coming out (not being in the EU) and staying in (The EU wants to destroy the City).
for me the risks of staying in outweigh the risks of coming out. Its a leap in the dark either way.