The only explanation re. the exit poll and the ordinary polls is large numbers of people entering the polling station intending not to vote Tory and then actually voting for them.
On LBC, @LordAshcroft says his poll of 12,000 voters - Con 34%, Lab 31% - is inconsistent with the exit poll
I believe Rod prediction was based upon Tories winning by 4% on national vote share. So it doesn't need to be that far out e.g could be 35/30. Exit poll is also saying Labour piling up votes in areas they don't need it and getting no swing in ones they do.
Nigel Farage on ITV has just effectively said that UKIP are now an alternative party to Labour. A party for white working class bigots. I'm surprised he still has the nerve to wear his velvet collared camel hair coat.
He then walked on and took no questions - which I take it to mean he has lost. IF he has lost and resigns then UKIP will change character completely.
The only explanation re. the exit poll and the ordinary polls is large numbers of people entering the polling station intending to not to vote Tory and then actually voting for them.
Not at all - differential response could be the key. Some people just don't like other people intruding into their business.
The only explanation re. the exit poll and the ordinary polls is large numbers of people entering the polling station intending to not to vote Tory and then actually voting for them.
Not at all - differential response could be the key. Some people just don't like other people intruding into their business.
And with the hatred/vitriol directed at Tories from those on the left, it's hardly a surprise.
Carswell on Sky talking about turning UKIP into an alternative to Labour in seats the Conservatives stand no chance [north of England, basically].
I've been saying this for ages, particularly that the soft Blue Kippers would return home this GE but that the WWC Kippers will never go back to Labour.
Nigel Farage on ITV has just effectively said that UKIP are now an alternative party to Labour. A party for white working class bigots. I'm surprised he still has the nerve to wear his velvet collared camel hair coat.
He then walked on and took no questions - which I take it to mean he has lost. IF he has lost and resigns then UKIP will change character completely.
The problem for Labour is the perception they see all WWC people as bigots.
BBC Scotland say East Lanarkshire is "Catastrophic" for Scottish Labour.
Strathclyde is going to see some crazy swings to the SNP. They will look safe nationalist seats after tonight. Also beginning to wonder just how big Hosie's majority will be in Dundee east...
The only explanation re. the exit poll and the ordinary polls is large numbers of people entering the polling station intending not to vote Tory and then actually voting for them.
No, the explanation is the obvious one: quite a few of those saying they'd vote Labour didn't, and those who were fired up about keeping Ed out did.
Christ almighty, it's looking like my dream outcome may eventuate - both UKIP and Labour utterly routed.
People's army my arse.
Farage has received the Roderick Spode treatment at the hands of Bertie Wooster:
The trouble with you, Spode, is that just because you have succeeded in inducing a handful of half-wits to disfigure the London scene by going about in black shorts, you think you're someone. You hear them shouting "Heil, Spode!" and you imagine it is the Voice of the People. That is where you make your bloomer. What the Voice of the People is saying is: "Look at that frightful ass Spode swanking about in footer bags! Did you ever in your puff see such a perfect perisher?"
On LBC, @LordAshcroft says his poll of 12,000 voters - Con 34%, Lab 31% - is inconsistent with the exit poll
I believe Rod prediction was based upon Tories winning by 4% on national vote share. So it doesn't need to be that far out e.g could be 35/30. Exit poll is also saying Labour piling up votes in areas they don't need it and getting no swing in ones they do.
But it's the collapse of the LDs that is creating this issue...Tories vote can stay static in LD/ Con marginals and they will still win.
The only explanation re. the exit poll and the ordinary polls is large numbers of people entering the polling station intending to not to vote Tory and then actually voting for them.
Not at all - differential response could be the key. Some people just don't like other people intruding into their business.
The real reason is that phone and online sampling methodology is outdated garbage. So the only accurate poll is the one that actually gets the people as they come out = the exit poll.
Bond Disagree, all 3 relatively moderate, telegenic, one a northerner, 1 a woman, 1 a black man, any of them would be miles better than Miliband, and with an EU referendum now likely a more rightwing leader is likely to succeed Cameron
Nats will like this. Effie Deans @Effiedeans To be clear my involvement with #SNPout has always been peripheral. I just help with tweets. The team deserves the credit #GE2015ill like this
Wee, ratty Effie trying to avoid blame for foundering of HMS SNPout.
As a humble foot soldier in all this my overwhelming impressions are: The British public are terribly polite. Even if thay hate all you and all you stand for the most they ever say is No thanks The number of cats in this country is extraordinary and they know there territory better than any canvasser Gardens sre looking wonderful this year. Gravel does not work well as a substitute for grass or flower borders England is not nearly as altered as many would have you believe.
On LBC, @LordAshcroft says his poll of 12,000 voters - Con 34%, Lab 31% - is inconsistent with the exit poll
I believe Rod prediction was based upon Tories winning by 4% on national vote share. So it doesn't need to be that far out e.g could be 35/30. Exit poll is also saying Labour piling up votes in areas they don't need it and getting no swing in ones they do.
But it's the collapse of the LDs that is creating this issue...Tories vote can stay static in LD/ Con marginals and they will still win.
Nigel Farage on ITV has just effectively said that UKIP are now an alternative party to Labour. A party for white working class bigots. I'm surprised he still has the nerve to wear his velvet collared camel hair coat.
He then walked on and took no questions - which I take it to mean he has lost. IF he has lost and resigns then UKIP will change character completely.
The problem for Labour is the perception they see all WWC people as bigots.
In the WWC north east Labour seems to have clung on.
On LBC, @LordAshcroft says his poll of 12,000 voters - Con 34%, Lab 31% - is inconsistent with the exit poll
I believe Rod prediction was based upon Tories winning by 4% on national vote share. So it doesn't need to be that far out e.g could be 35/30. Exit poll is also saying Labour piling up votes in areas they don't need it and getting no swing in ones they do.
But it's the collapse of the LDs that is creating this issue...Tories vote can stay static in LD/ Con marginals and they will still win.
On LBC, @LordAshcroft says his poll of 12,000 voters - Con 34%, Lab 31% - is inconsistent with the exit poll
If the Exit Poll is correct LordA has to resign from the polling industry, all of his constituency polls would have been massively wrong apart from Scotland.
He's not the only one either. Look like we are having a load of Angus Reid's in this election...
On LBC, @LordAshcroft says his poll of 12,000 voters - Con 34%, Lab 31% - is inconsistent with the exit poll
If the Exit Poll is correct LordA has to resign from the polling industry, all of his constituency polls would have been massively wrong apart from Scotland.
Wonder how impressed Mike will be with his lordship, a bit less than he appears to have been over the last few months I suspect.
Nigel Farage on ITV has just effectively said that UKIP are now an alternative party to Labour. A party for white working class bigots. I'm surprised he still has the nerve to wear his velvet collared camel hair coat.
He then walked on and took no questions - which I take it to mean he has lost. IF he has lost and resigns then UKIP will change character completely.
The problem for Labour is the perception they see all WWC people as bigots.
In the WWC north east Labour seems to have clung on.
Well yes, but it's something of a dead cat bounce - their NorthEast vote fell by 20% between 1997 and 2010, far bigger than falls in the South.
Whilst people are rightly pointing out the difficulty in running minority governments, need to bear in mind that it probably makes a difference when Conservatives are so far ahead of the opposition. Much easier to play off other parties against each other and far more scope to do deals on tricky issues. A situation where there is no majority opposition to one side of them also makes it much less likely that the opposition will unite against them.
And it clearly is not in the SNP interest to force another election.
Carswell on Sky talking about turning UKIP into an alternative to Labour in seats the Conservatives stand no chance [north of England, basically].
I've been saying this for ages, particularly that the soft Blue Kippers would return home this GE but that the WWC Kippers will never go back to Labour.
And I am right.
This is why Labour could be toast. There is now an alternative for the WC vote they have long taken for granted.
The irony of a party once called "the Tory party your grandfather voted for" hoovering up Labour voters now.
On LBC, @LordAshcroft says his poll of 12,000 voters - Con 34%, Lab 31% - is inconsistent with the exit poll
I believe Rod prediction was based upon Tories winning by 4% on national vote share. So it doesn't need to be that far out e.g could be 35/30. Exit poll is also saying Labour piling up votes in areas they don't need it and getting no swing in ones they do.
But it's the collapse of the LDs that is creating this issue...Tories vote can stay static in LD/ Con marginals and they will still win.
I did try and tell Mr Smithson this point.
You mean, Mr Smithson Snr
HAHA :-) That's true good point. I've seen that your Mr Smithson Jnr.
STV - SNP activists saying 2 to 1 ahead. Tom Harris asked how he is feeling "well, I'm not expecting a recount", he's lost.
He says
"no-one was listening to us" "we won on all the polciies" "this wasnt about policies" "no idea if Labour will win any seats in Scotland"
WOW. This is utterly amazing. From the reactions this is beyond anything I thought would happen. The SNP have destroyed Labour. And the Lib Dems. The Second Indyref will be on the ballot in 2016 and you know what, we will win both 2016 and the Second Referendum.
Kezia was chipper on BBC Scotland earleir, now looking utterly distrought on STV. Earlier saying "wait for then result" now saying "this will be bad". Blaming SNP for a Tory Government with a majority more than all the seats in Scotland.
Nigel Farage on ITV has just effectively said that UKIP are now an alternative party to Labour. A party for white working class bigots. I'm surprised he still has the nerve to wear his velvet collared camel hair coat.
He then walked on and took no questions - which I take it to mean he has lost. IF he has lost and resigns then UKIP will change character completely.
The problem for Labour is the perception they see all WWC people as bigots.
A perception that is 100% accurate.
Farage also clearly despises the type of supporter he actually has.
Just a thought....if it does come out as predicted, Tories need Lib Dems.
Clegg can't stay as leader after this surely? If it isn't Nick who gets on well with Cameron, could it be seriously rocky if it is somebody like Fallon instead?
I love the Labour desperation of trying to suggest that if the exit poll is correct they will still be able to scramble together a Government of all the Damned to keep Dave out.
Just a thought....if it does come out as predicted, Tories need Lib Dems.
Clegg can't stay as leader after this surely? If it isn't Nick who gets on well with Cameron, could it be seriously rocky if it is somebody like Fallon instead?
They may not need anyone and if they do they might prefer the DUP
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I'm surprised he still has the nerve to wear his velvet collared camel hair coat.
He then walked on and took no questions - which I take it to mean he has lost. IF he has lost and resigns then UKIP will change character completely.
Too late to put bubbly in the fridge?
And I am right.
People's army my arse.
Farage has received the Roderick Spode treatment at the hands of Bertie Wooster:
The trouble with you, Spode, is that just because you have succeeded in inducing a handful of half-wits to disfigure the London scene by going about in black shorts, you think you're someone. You hear them shouting "Heil, Spode!" and you imagine it is the Voice of the People. That is where you make your bloomer. What the Voice of the People is saying is: "Look at that frightful ass Spode swanking about in footer bags! Did you ever in your puff see such a perfect perisher?"
The British public are terribly polite. Even if thay hate all you and all you stand for the most they ever say is No thanks
The number of cats in this country is extraordinary and they know there territory better than any canvasser
Gardens sre looking wonderful this year. Gravel does not work well as a substitute for grass or flower borders
England is not nearly as altered as many would have you believe.
LibDems under 10% - isam winner
LibDems under 8% - rcs1000 winner
Reckless wins Rochester - rcs1000 winner
Cons +6.5% in Thanet South - rcs1000 winner
Only Hughes left for LD in London
Nick Robinson retweeted Matthew Price
Now Tories predicting win against UKIP defector Mark Reckless
Please please please
And it clearly is not in the SNP interest to force another election.
The irony of a party once called "the Tory party your grandfather voted for" hoovering up Labour voters now.
"The electorate just wasn't listening."
He says
"no-one was listening to us"
"we won on all the polciies"
"this wasnt about policies"
"no idea if Labour will win any seats in Scotland"
WOW. This is utterly amazing. From the reactions this is beyond anything I thought would happen. The SNP have destroyed Labour. And the Lib Dems. The Second Indyref will be on the ballot in 2016 and you know what, we will win both 2016 and the Second Referendum.
Kezia was chipper on BBC Scotland earleir, now looking utterly distrought on STV. Earlier saying "wait for then result" now saying "this will be bad". Blaming SNP for a Tory Government with a majority more than all the seats in Scotland.
Farage also clearly despises the type of supporter he actually has.
Take it from me as a proxy for a Labour spokesman that this is a very poor night for Labour.
How he never became PM evades me.
Clegg can't stay as leader after this surely? If it isn't Nick who gets on well with Cameron, could it be seriously rocky if it is somebody like Fallon instead?
No Shit, Sherlock !