Looking at some the hysterical fact-denying comments I've seen on social media today about why people aren't voting Tory, the problem seems much more deep-seated than that.
There's about to be a massive dose of reality coming for the social media generation of lefties, most of whom think that only 1% of the population need to pay any more in taxes in order for everyone else to have more sweeties.
Just the bankers and billionaires will pay more tax. What happens when we have a French style exodus of the entrepreneurs.
Well, 'Relative' poverty will fall, innit? Just like it did in 2009.
France has demonstrated exactly what will happen. All the entrepreneurs in London will say hello to (in order of longitude) Monaco, Switzerland, Dubai, Singapore, Hong Kong, Tokyo, New York, Caribbean - all of these are financial centres with generally lower personal and corporate taxes than London.
Bollox. Just my professional opinion.
Monaco - sunny place for shady people Switzerland - you'll die of boredom Dubai - you bin there? Singapore - dreary as hell Hong Kong - expat community seriously weird and limited Tokyo - they don't like rich foreigners much. Or any foreigners, really. New York - taxes similar to London Caribbean - very niche appeal
The reality is that Miliband probably could put taxes up to 50-60%. Not much more than that, though. The French effect was so dramatic because South Ken was just a train ride away.
...thank you. I get tired of being the only person arguing that self-evident truth. Added to which, on the assumption that many entrepreneurs need skilled staff in their own location, there's a number of places on that list where you're going to struggle to recreate your (presumably successful) wealth-creating business. Unless, of course, "entrepreneur" is a euphemism for "possessor of large sums of unearned wealth".
How's Istanbul btw?
Not bad - stuck in my hotel working though. Only here for 18 hours... flight back home tomorrow...
Entirely agree with you re Steve Webb although the idea of providing a standard rate of pension tax relief above 20% is ludicrous.
Why is it ludicrous? It struck me as quite an innovative and well-targeted idea, which might help in addressing the problem of insufficient saving towards pensions by the less well-off, at no net cost to the taxpayer and being fair to everyone. Worth examining further, anyway.
Richard - to increase the rate from 20% would give EXTRA tax relief to the vast majority of taxpayers which would be HUGELY expensive!
AS I happens I do favour reducing it to 20% for all taxpayers but it should be done graduated 5% per year so 45% (or 50% ) - 40% - 35% - 30% - 25%. Real savings for HMT but not too bad for high earners most like me who have got there entirely by their own efforts
We should do the same with child benefit too - phase it out over 5 years!
Seriously I'm not sure SNP will come through - it could be LAB/LD which in my view is a better outcome than LAB/SNP
true - steve webb back at pensions would be some solace to my empty wallet!!
My pension arrangements are wrecked by the TORIES' proposals let alone LAB! Oddly enough I received a letter from my employer advising me I would soon reach the new lower lifetime allowance and offering an opt out with cash alternative - and this is BEFORE the effective removal of tax relief on contributions for so called higher earners on the additional rate! (£150,000pa)
I still voted CON as LAB would in the end be far worse with wrecking the economy.
Entirely agree with you re Steve Webb although the idea of providing a standard rate of pension tax relief above 20% is ludicrous.
What have you done with the real @Ave_it and set him free ?!?!?
Hope your ARSE is right Jack but I'm a bit worried!
They are getting frit: UKIPinSandwell @UKIPinSandwell 3h3 hours ago We have reports of Labour activists turning people away at polling stations in #Sandwell if they arrive without a polling card.
That would be very illogical, as they could easily be Labour voters...
Voted in a safe Labour ward in Thurrock. Polling station was really busy. Busiest I've seen at an election there. Speaking to the staff they said turnout had been really good and that they were surprised at the number of first time voters. My gut feeling is that UKIP will win Thurrock tonight.
Walking round the town afterwards really noticeable how many groups of Labour volunteers there were out door knocking. They have thrown a lot of resources at the seat.
One final word. If Labour doesn't win then I will be disappointed for Polly Billington who has been an excellent candidate, and the best of the main three in the seat. She will make an excellent MP.
144 minutes to go, I suggest for all those going around in "what if" mode, just see a movie, since it's 2015 I suggest Back to the Future (116 minutes long).
By the time you finish, history might have been written and you wouldn't miss it.
I have just had the leader for Trafford Council knock on my door to see if I have voted today. He took great pains to emphasize that he only wanted to be sure I had voted regardless of who it was for.
Could someone please indulge me by explaining how spoiled ballot papers are treated? I have just been arguing with someone who believes that drawing unicorns on a ballot paper is some sort of revolutionary gesture which will make politicians sit up and take note. To me, it is just a wasted vote.
It is difficult to see how that would be compatible with EU law. The EU has exclusive competence in the area of monetary policy for states whose currency is the Euro (see TFEU article 3(1)(c)). It is therefore not open to Greece to operate a unilateral monetary policy outside the scope of EU law.
I don't think it would operate in that way. Greece would pay its suppliers or employees in "IOUs", effectively a promise to pay €20 in one year's time. There would be no technical second currency. (And let's not forget, government invoices are already effectively trade-able, and this is just a more general version of that. For a time at the height of the Eurozone crisis, invoices to the Spanish government were trading in the 85-90cents in the dollar.)
These IOUs would immediately sink to a 30-40% discount to parity. And there would be riots on the streets of Athens.
But the concept of issuing tradeable IOUs as precursor to currency independence has a lot going for it. (The issue is that once you start down that route, and holders of Euros in bank accounts see the effective "drop" that will happen once the Drachma is reintroduced, and therefore there is capital flight... bank failures... etc...)
Looking at some the hysterical fact-denying comments I've seen on social media today about why people aren't voting Tory, the problem seems much more deep-seated than that.
There's about to be a massive dose of reality coming for the social media generation of lefties, most of whom think that only 1% of the population need to pay any more in taxes in order for everyone else to have more sweeties.
Just the bankers and billionaires will pay more tax. What happens when we have a French style exodus of the entrepreneurs.
Well, 'Relative' poverty will fall, innit? Just like it did in 2009.
France has demonstrated exactly what will happen. All the entrepreneurs in London will say hello to (in order of longitude) Monaco, Switzerland, Dubai, Singapore, Hong Kong, Tokyo, New York, Caribbean - all of these are financial centres with generally lower personal and corporate taxes than London.
Bollox. Just my professional opinion.
Monaco - sunny place for shady people Switzerland - you'll die of boredom Dubai - you bin there? Singapore - dreary as hell Hong Kong - expat community seriously weird and limited Tokyo - they don't like rich foreigners much. Or any foreigners, really. New York - taxes similar to London Caribbean - very niche appeal
The reality is that Miliband probably could put taxes up to 50-60%. Not much more than that, though. The French effect was so dramatic because South Ken was just a train ride away.
Greens doing very well in Canterbury (most likely in the student dominated wards), turnout very high - especially among younger and first time voters. UKIP holding well, too.
As for Thanet South - nobody knows.
People forget that Canterbury is packed with students. To what extent does this spill into other Kent seats - on the assumption that they would be anti kipper.
I bet I'm not the only UKip-Green "hoverer" this GE
Kent is very Kipper. There will be a few second-places in safe Tory seats. All ready to be picked off in 2020 ;-)
I voted Green in this very, er, green (small g) constituency. If I lived anywhere marginal, I'd willingly lend my votes to another small party. We have a broken constitution if Green and UKIP can get a few million votes and only gain half a dozen seats between them.
Under FPTP I think UKIP has a problem in winning affluent Tory seats. The serious UKIP target seats this time seem to be Labour-Tory marginals where UKIP attracts voters from both parties. If FPTP remains, that will be true next time, so Surrey south-west isn't a target seat.
If police were in Tower Hamlets in numbers (And I hope they were) why are there not at least four coppers visible at these polling stations and advising that TWO is the MAXIMUM number of tellers allowed outside.
Just up the road from me,toller lane station.
I really don't care how it looks but if Galloway is standing anywhere there should be four police officers at every polling station and the Two Teller rule should be enforced strongly.
It looks much worse that our democracy is being reduced to this sort of thing. Although after the Referendum and the mobs of Loyalist bully boys outside polling stations, it's not just Bradford East that has problems.
If there is a God, please could He make Galloway lose - and disappear off to a faraway place, never to be heard of again, Along with all the others on my list.
Seriously I'm not sure SNP will come through - it could be LAB/LD which in my view is a better outcome than LAB/SNP
true - steve webb back at pensions would be some solace to my empty wallet!!
My pension arrangements are wrecked by the TORIES' proposals let alone LAB! Oddly enough I received a letter from my employer advising me I would soon reach the new lower lifetime allowance and offering an opt out with cash alternative - and this is BEFORE the effective removal of tax relief on contributions for so called higher earners on the additional rate! (£150,000pa)
I still voted CON as LAB would in the end be far worse with wrecking the economy.
Entirely agree with you re Steve Webb although the idea of providing a standard rate of pension tax relief above 20% is ludicrous.
What have you done with the real @Ave_it and set him free ?!?!?
Hope your ARSE is right Jack but I'm a bit worried!
Don't go all wobble bottom on my ARSE ....
If Ave_it is going wobbly, the Tories might have made a serious mistake with their pension reform plans.
Looking at some the hysterical fact-denying comments I've seen on social media today about why people aren't voting Tory, the problem seems much more deep-seated than that.
There's about to be a massive dose of reality coming for the social media generation of lefties, most of whom think that only 1% of the population need to pay any more in taxes in order for everyone else to have more sweeties.
Just the bankers and billionaires will pay more tax. What happens when we have a French style exodus of the entrepreneurs.
Well, 'Relative' poverty will fall, innit? Just like it did in 2009.
France has demonstrated exactly what will happen. All the entrepreneurs in London will say hello to (in order of longitude) Monaco, Switzerland, Dubai, Singapore, Hong Kong, Tokyo, New York, Caribbean - all of these are financial centres with generally lower personal and corporate taxes than London.
Bollox. Just my professional opinion.
Monaco - sunny place for shady people Switzerland - you'll die of boredom Dubai - you bin there? Singapore - dreary as hell Hong Kong - expat community seriously weird and limited Tokyo - they don't like rich foreigners much. Or any foreigners, really. New York - taxes similar to London Caribbean - very niche appeal
The reality is that Miliband probably could put taxes up to 50-60%. Not much more than that, though. The French effect was so dramatic because South Ken was just a train ride away.
The difference now to the past is that unearned income is taxed much less than earned income so those who inherit or sit on assets or have large pensions contribute little just get richer while the earners can barely afford to rent a house let alone buy one.
The system is upside down and this government in trying to appeal to pensioners and the rich has exacerbated the situation.
Judging by the way predictions and markets seem slow on the uptake I'm guessing the exit poll will show Tories narrowly most seats, which is slowly proven wrong through the night.
Re. Child benefit. My wife and I were talking about this the other day. We're middle-income working parents; the extra dough is welcome, especially with little one being preschool, but realistically we'd get by without it. Better would be to scrap it above a certain (low-ish) household income and use some of the savings to help subsidise childcare up to school age.
Looking at some the hysterical fact-denying comments I've seen on social media today about why people aren't voting Tory, the problem seems much more deep-seated than that.
There's about to be a massive dose of reality coming for the social media generation of lefties, most of whom think that only 1% of the population need to pay any more in taxes in order for everyone else to have more sweeties.
Just the bankers and billionaires will pay more tax. What happens when we have a French style exodus of the entrepreneurs.
Well, 'Relative' poverty will fall, innit? Just like it did in 2009.
France has demonstrated exactly what will happen. All the entrepreneurs in London will say hello to (in order of longitude) Monaco, Switzerland, Dubai, Singapore, Hong Kong, Tokyo, New York, Caribbean - all of these are financial centres with generally lower personal and corporate taxes than London.
Bollox. Just my professional opinion.
Monaco - sunny place for shady people Switzerland - you'll die of boredom Dubai - you bin there? Singapore - dreary as hell Hong Kong - expat community seriously weird and limited Tokyo - they don't like rich foreigners much. Or any foreigners, really. New York - taxes similar to London Caribbean - very niche appeal
The reality is that Miliband probably could put taxes up to 50-60%. Not much more than that, though. The French effect was so dramatic because South Ken was just a train ride away.
No you'd have to change at St Pancras
Change? I'd usually catch a little black bus
Your time is clearly not valuable :-)
Depends whether I want to make calls or not. If I'm not in a hurry or tired, I'll walk or tube it. But South Ken is a pain from St. Pancras
Presumably the exit poll result has been handed to the media and the parties now?
I thought that the BBC only found about 10-15 minutes before going on air for their election program. Indeed I'm sure John Curtice talked about the pressures of getting it done in time for it going on air.
If police were in Tower Hamlets in numbers (And I hope they were) why are there not at least four coppers visible at these polling stations and advising that TWO is the MAXIMUM number of tellers allowed outside.
Just up the road from me,toller lane station.
Where are Hope Not Hate? They seem to have plenty of people in Kent. Couldn't they spare a few?
The difference now to the past is that unearned income is taxed much less than earned income so those who inherit or sit on assets and contribute little just get richer while the earners can barely afford to rent a house let alone buy one. The system is upside down and this government in trying to get the grey vote has exacerbated the situation.
What do you mean by "unearned" income?
All income is taxed at the same rates though and IHT is at 40%, even if you weren't a higher rate taxpayer when working.
I'm not an expert in CGT so can't comment on that. Certainly I think that only pensioners who are poor should get benefits. But generally I think that for all benefits, including tax credits.
Housing is a big issue, for me a bigger issue than the NHS, which is what I told the Labour party canvasser who came to my house. He looked surprised; a bit out of touch on this, I thought.
Re. Child benefit. My wife and I were talking about this the other day. We're middle-income working parents; the extra dough is welcome, especially with little one being preschool, but realistically we'd get by without it. Better would be to scrap it above a certain (low-ish) household income and use some of the savings to help subsidise childcare up to school age.
If there is a God, please could He make Galloway lose - and disappear off to a faraway place, never to be heard of again, Along with all the others on my list.
Judging by the way predictions and markets seem slow on the uptake I'm guessing the exit poll will show Tories narrowly most seats, which is slowly proven wrong through the night.
I'm confidently back on Con most seats after realising one thing that I don't think has been factored in: the Lib Dem collapse in favour of Lab in the South (excl. London). I've just been doing a map of second places (http://i.gyazo.com/be87e23c6294ce419ab334a40a90c5f3.png) and it's occurred to me that in each place where the Lib Dems are second - they could lose 20% of the vote and it to go to Labour without Labour actually gaining (m)any seats. This means that the massive swings in the south which will result in few seats going to the Tories are distorting the overall picture. Up to 4% of the nationwide vote (from Lab) could be wasted with no gains if this happens in the South.
If police were in Tower Hamlets in numbers (And I hope they were) why are there not at least four coppers visible at these polling stations and advising that TWO is the MAXIMUM number of tellers allowed outside.
Just up the road from me,toller lane station.
I really don't care how it looks but if Galloway is standing anywhere there should be four police officers at every polling station and the Two Teller rule should be enforced strongly.
It looks much worse that our democracy is being reduced to this sort of thing. Although after the Referendum and the mobs of Loyalist bully boys outside polling stations, it's not just Bradford East that has problems.
If there is a God, please could He make Galloway lose - and disappear off to a faraway place, never to be heard of again, Along with all the others on my list.
He won't leave while the electoral rules appear to be being ignored and instead of a maximum two tellers, he is allowed to have 20 to 30 large men outside each polling place.
Again the pictures in this tweet are not indicative of a free and fair election process.
I don't think it would operate in that way. Greece would pay its suppliers or employees in "IOUs", effectively a promise to pay €20 in one year's time. There would be no technical second currency. (And let's not forget, government invoices are already effectively trade-able, and this is just a more general version of that. For a time at the height of the Eurozone crisis, invoices to the Spanish government were trading in the 85-90cents in the dollar.)
These IOUs would immediately sink to a 30-40% discount to parity. And there would be riots on the streets of Athens.
But the concept of issuing tradeable IOUs as precursor to currency independence has a lot going for it. (The issue is that once you start down that route, and holders of Euros in bank accounts see the effective "drop" that will happen once the Drachma is reintroduced, and therefore there is capital flight... bank failures... etc...)
I see. It would basically be the equivalent of the Treasury creating an enormous volume of assignable choses in action in favour of civil servants and private contractors. I suppose in theory that it would not contravene TFEU art 128(1), which provides that only banknotes issued by the ECB and national central banks have the status of legal tender within the Union. However, it would surely be the right of civil servants and those who have contractual relationships with the government to insist on payment in legal tender?
That said, it looks like a unilateralist move in monetary policy. Whether or not that would be compatible with Title VIII of TFEU is an open question.
Judging by the way predictions and markets seem slow on the uptake I'm guessing the exit poll will show Tories narrowly most seats, which is slowly proven wrong through the night.
I'm confidently back on Con most seats after realising one thing that I don't think has been factored in: the Lib Dem collapse in favour of Lab in the South (excl. London). I've just been doing a map of second places (http://i.gyazo.com/be87e23c6294ce419ab334a40a90c5f3.png) and it's occurred to me that in each place where the Lib Dems are second - they could lose 20% of the vote and it to go to Labour without Labour actually gaining (m)any seats. This means that the massive swings in the south which will result in few seats going to the Tories are distorting the overall picture. Up to 4% of the nationwide vote (from Lab) could be wasted with no gains if this happens in the South.
Wishful thinking ends in exactly 2hours:08 minutes !
Roger - "The difference now to the past is that unearned income is taxed much less than earned income so those who inherit or sit on assets and contribute little just get richer while the earners can barely afford to rent a house let alone buy one. The system is upside down and this government in trying to get the grey vote has exacerbated the situation."
GO ROGER!!!!
You have absolutely called it! In the last 5 years I have lost my personal allowance £4k net loss, £1k extra NI and now CON want to make me pay £8k more a year on my earned final salary contributions to pay for other people's inheritances!!
I've been doing a map of second places in 2010 (http://i.gyazo.com/be87e23c6294ce419ab334a40a90c5f3.png) - and I've just realised that since Labour are nowhere in the South that the substantial LD -> Lab swings that will occur in the South with little Lab gains are wildly distorting the national picture. I really don't think that the Lab most seats people are pricing in how many lab votes are wasted (I'd say that at least 4% more of the nationwide votes will be wasted Lab votes in South, which effectively gives the Tories a 4% lead on current polling compared to 2010 as so many more Lab votes are wasted.
Re. Child benefit. My wife and I were talking about this the other day. We're middle-income working parents; the extra dough is welcome, especially with little one being preschool, but realistically we'd get by without it. Better would be to scrap it above a certain (low-ish) household income and use some of the savings to help subsidise childcare up to school age.
The savings need to be used to pay off the deficit. Just moving the money into another spending bucket does not help.
Once we as a nation have started earning more than we spend then we can start thinking about what our spending priorities should be. One of those priorities will be to pay down (or start the process) of paying off debt. Because that debt incurs interest and money spent on paying interest is money which cannot be spent on other "nicer" things.
The Tories should have been hammering this point home for the last 5 years instead of going on a spending spree promise in the last few weeks. Whatever the result they risk trashing their USP and disappointing their voters.
Judging by the way predictions and markets seem slow on the uptake I'm guessing the exit poll will show Tories narrowly most seats, which is slowly proven wrong through the night.
I'm confidently back on Con most seats after realising one thing that I don't think has been factored in: the Lib Dem collapse in favour of Lab in the South (excl. London). I've just been doing a map of second places (http://i.gyazo.com/be87e23c6294ce419ab334a40a90c5f3.png) and it's occurred to me that in each place where the Lib Dems are second - they could lose 20% of the vote and it to go to Labour without Labour actually gaining (m)any seats. This means that the massive swings in the south which will result in few seats going to the Tories are distorting the overall picture. Up to 4% of the nationwide vote (from Lab) could be wasted with no gains if this happens in the South.
Wishful thinking ends in exactly 2hours:08 minutes !
Judging by the way predictions and markets seem slow on the uptake I'm guessing the exit poll will show Tories narrowly most seats, which is slowly proven wrong through the night.
I'm confidently back on Con most seats after realising one thing that I don't think has been factored in: the Lib Dem collapse in favour of Lab in the South (excl. London). I've just been doing a map of second places (http://i.gyazo.com/be87e23c6294ce419ab334a40a90c5f3.png) and it's occurred to me that in each place where the Lib Dems are second - they could lose 20% of the vote and it to go to Labour without Labour actually gaining (m)any seats. This means that the massive swings in the south which will result in few seats going to the Tories are distorting the overall picture. Up to 4% of the nationwide vote (from Lab) could be wasted with no gains if this happens in the South.
The question of what happens to vote efficiency if the Lib Dems collapse and UKIP rise is probably the factor causing most problems! On it may hinge the next PM!
Judging by the way predictions and markets seem slow on the uptake I'm guessing the exit poll will show Tories narrowly most seats, which is slowly proven wrong through the night.
I'm confidently back on Con most seats after realising one thing that I don't think has been factored in: the Lib Dem collapse in favour of Lab in the South (excl. London). I've just been doing a map of second places (http://i.gyazo.com/be87e23c6294ce419ab334a40a90c5f3.png) and it's occurred to me that in each place where the Lib Dems are second - they could lose 20% of the vote and it to go to Labour without Labour actually gaining (m)any seats. This means that the massive swings in the south which will result in few seats going to the Tories are distorting the overall picture. Up to 4% of the nationwide vote (from Lab) could be wasted with no gains if this happens in the South.
Wishful thinking ends in exactly 2hours:08 minutes !
Not quite. People didn't believe the exit poll last time and have more reason to be wary this time. The wishful thinking should last up to the first con-lab marginal or the first slab seat which shows a result a bit better than previously expected.
Just voted in Littlehampton. Apparently its been 'manic'. Unheard of here. Sadly due to the plethora of Poles and Russians I suspect ukip will do well.
Judging by the way predictions and markets seem slow on the uptake I'm guessing the exit poll will show Tories narrowly most seats, which is slowly proven wrong through the night.
I'm confidently back on Con most seats after realising one thing that I don't think has been factored in: the Lib Dem collapse in favour of Lab in the South (excl. London). I've just been doing a map of second places (http://i.gyazo.com/be87e23c6294ce419ab334a40a90c5f3.png) and it's occurred to me that in each place where the Lib Dems are second - they could lose 20% of the vote and it to go to Labour without Labour actually gaining (m)any seats. This means that the massive swings in the south which will result in few seats going to the Tories are distorting the overall picture. Up to 4% of the nationwide vote (from Lab) could be wasted with no gains if this happens in the South.
Wishful thinking ends in exactly 2hours:08 minutes !
Even you have to agree that the massive LD -> Lab swings in the South will cause lots more Lab wasted votes for few seats, and that for every 1% of new wasted votes for Lab gives the Tories a 1% advantage where it matters - and visa versa.
Only 53% turnout so far in Lanarkshire based on 2 polling booths. This is heading for 65% turnout which means 20% of voters who said they would vote in the pollls are not going to. Who are those voters. My hunch the young and the poor as ever. Probably bad for SNP.
Postal votes are not counted at the polling station dear chap.
Sunny and dry here in South Wiltshire with polling ‘brisk’ throughout the day apparently with a small queue waiting outside the roor at 7am. Met several people en route clutching their pink polling cards but no idea if turn-out is up or down on last time. – Spag bol, home baked loaf and bottle of English white for supper.
Just voted in Littlehampton. Apparently its been 'manic'. Unheard of here. Sadly due to the plethora of Poles and Russians I suspect ukip will do well.
We do need to stop people burdening this country by producing children that we taxpayers have to pay for - by stopping child benefit, child tax credits, childcare handouts and the rest of it.
Quote of the night from a mate in the pub who knows I voted green (my punters don't) 'If this ends up Miliband one seat ahead and Con lose Broadland by one vote I'm going to f ing kill you' Lolololol
Re. Child benefit. My wife and I were talking about this the other day. We're middle-income working parents; the extra dough is welcome, especially with little one being preschool, but realistically we'd get by without it. Better would be to scrap it above a certain (low-ish) household income and use some of the savings to help subsidise childcare up to school age.
The savings need to be used to pay off the deficit. Just moving the money into another spending bucket does not help.
Once we as a nation have started earning more than we spend then we can start thinking about what our spending priorities should be. One of those priorities will be to pay down (or start the process) of paying off debt. Because that debt incurs interest and money spent on paying interest is money which cannot be spent on other "nicer" things.
The Tories should have been hammering this point home for the last 5 years instead of going on a spending spree promise in the last few weeks. Whatever the result they risk trashing their USP and disappointing their voters.
Don't necessarily disagree on child benefit... but paying interest is only bad if your return on the borrowed money is less than the cost of your interest. Borrowing for a holiday means fewer holidays in the long term, but borrowing to buy a car to get to work means a nicer car (and more holidays) in the long term.
Their aren't many businesses that grow without increasing their debt, and it's generally reasonable to assume they would have fewer "nicer things" if they slowed their growth rate by limiting their access to cash.
Pleased I got on Labour most seats at 5.3 yesterday. The fact that it's now at 4.4 concerns me a little though. Why haven't the polls shifted it more. The Tories are only 8 ahead in terms of seats prediction but massive odds on favourite for most seats. Why???
Just voted in Littlehampton. Apparently its been 'manic'. Unheard of here. Sadly due to the plethora of Poles and Russians I suspect ukip will do well.
I think I am going to do one thing if the Tories lose today, I'll join the party, hopefully I can do some good, I'm not particularly interested in being an MP, but I do think a strong Conservative party is important for the country and hopefully I could help.
Pleased I got on Labour most seats at 5.3 yesterday. The fact that it's now at 4.4 concerns me a little though. Why haven't the polls shifted it more. The Tories are only 8 ahead in terms of seats prediction but massive odds on favourite for most seats. Why???
Mr Shaddick told 538 in their piece yesterday that there is a wall of money backing C most seats.
It does seem to be a Labour / Leftist thing. I have yet to come across anyone from the centre ground or centre-right calling lefties "Labour scum" or "Vermin", etc etc. My own view is that their intolerance is caused by socialism really being little more than a secularised religion where the works of the prophet Marx and his disciple Lenin are beyond criticism. Their rightness and righteousness is self-evident and anything contray is heresy.
It is why I stick to shoes (makes me happy) and food (makes others happy). My foodist-shoeist religion increases happiness, sharing, love and friendship. It is better than politics.
Re. Child benefit. My wife and I were talking about this the other day. We're middle-income working parents; the extra dough is welcome, especially with little one being preschool, but realistically we'd get by without it. Better would be to scrap it above a certain (low-ish) household income and use some of the savings to help subsidise childcare up to school age.
The savings need to be used to pay off the deficit. Just moving the money into another spending bucket does not help.
Once we as a nation have started earning more than we spend then we can start thinking about what our spending priorities should be. One of those priorities will be to pay down (or start the process) of paying off debt. Because that debt incurs interest and money spent on paying interest is money which cannot be spent on other "nicer" things.
The Tories should have been hammering this point home for the last 5 years instead of going on a spending spree promise in the last few weeks. Whatever the result they risk trashing their USP and disappointing their voters.
Don't necessarily disagree on child benefit... but paying interest is only bad if your return on the borrowed money is less than the cost of your interest. Borrowing for a holiday means fewer holidays in the long term, but borrowing to buy a car to get to work means a nicer car (and more holidays) in the long term.
Their aren't many businesses that grow without increasing their debt, and it's generally reasonable to assume they would have fewer "nicer things" if they slowed their growth rate by limiting their access to cash.
Agree in general terms. But we as a nation have been borrowing to buy tat and spend on nights out rather than borrowing to spend the money wisely. Most politicians don't seem to understand the difference.
I think I am going to do one thing if the Tories lose today, I'll join the party, hopefully I can do some good, I'm not particularly interested in being an MP, but I do think a strong Conservative party is important for the country and hopefully I could help.
Will you try and make it a true conservative party and not as it is now, a near duplicate of Labour? However, you'd be better off in UKIP.
Pleased I got on Labour most seats at 5.3 yesterday. The fact that it's now at 4.4 concerns me a little though. Why haven't the polls shifted it more. The Tories are only 8 ahead in terms of seats prediction but massive odds on favourite for most seats. Why???
It seems crazy to me. It can't all be overly optimistic types can it? What are they seeing that I'm not? Wasted lab votes in the south doesn't seem enough.
One thing that has struck me during my campaigning is the general positivity of women towards Ed. They have not been impressed by the Sun's caricatures.
Presumably the exit poll result has been handed to the media and the parties now?
I thought that the BBC only found about 10-15 minutes before going on air for their election program. Indeed I'm sure John Curtice talked about the pressures of getting it done in time for it going on air.
Data keeps being fed into the exit poll until 10pm, and in fact the final data isn't in until 11pm in order to cater for those voting at the last minute.
It does seem to be a Labour / Leftist thing. I have yet to come across anyone from the centre ground or centre-right calling lefties "Labour scum" or "Vermin", etc etc. My own view is that their intolerance is caused by socialism really being little more than a secularised religion where the works of the prophet Marx and his disciple Lenin are beyond criticism. Their rightness and righteousness is self-evident and anything contray is heresy.
It is why I stick to shoes (makes me happy) and food (makes others happy). My foodist-shoeist religion increases happiness, sharing, love and friendship. It is better than politics.
If you add gardening into the mix I'll join you in your new religion!
Pleased I got on Labour most seats at 5.3 yesterday. The fact that it's now at 4.4 concerns me a little though. Why haven't the polls shifted it more. The Tories are only 8 ahead in terms of seats prediction but massive odds on favourite for most seats. Why???
With the most seats thing there is the very real chance that there is going to be massive LD -> Lab swing in the South which may represent 4/5% of the nationwide votes, but they actually mean that few seats change hands which would go a long way to eliminating any bias in the system.
Pleased I got on Labour most seats at 5.3 yesterday. The fact that it's now at 4.4 concerns me a little though. Why haven't the polls shifted it more. The Tories are only 8 ahead in terms of seats prediction but massive odds on favourite for most seats. Why???
It seems crazy to me. It can't all be overly optimistic types can it? What are they seeing that I'm not? Wasted lab votes in the south doesn't seem enough.
Well, what does Kellner see that YouGov do not see, what do NOP see? I think (personally) they expect DK and Undecided to break for the Status Quo today. I am more doubtful
Comments
Unearthed a fun little opportunity
AS I happens I do favour reducing it to 20% for all taxpayers but it should be done graduated 5% per year so 45% (or 50%
but not too bad for high earners most like me who have got there entirely by their own efforts
We should do the same with child benefit too - phase it out over 5 years!
Walking round the town afterwards really noticeable how many groups of Labour volunteers there were out door knocking. They have thrown a lot of resources at the seat.
One final word. If Labour doesn't win then I will be disappointed for Polly Billington who has been an excellent candidate, and the best of the main three in the seat. She will make an excellent MP.
https://twitter.com/chazaustin9/status/596219724863774720
By the time you finish, history might have been written and you wouldn't miss it.
These IOUs would immediately sink to a 30-40% discount to parity. And there would be riots on the streets of Athens.
But the concept of issuing tradeable IOUs as precursor to currency independence has a lot going for it. (The issue is that once you start down that route, and holders of Euros in bank accounts see the effective "drop" that will happen once the Drachma is reintroduced, and therefore there is capital flight... bank failures... etc...)
Under FPTP I think UKIP has a problem in winning affluent Tory seats. The serious UKIP target seats this time seem to be Labour-Tory marginals where UKIP attracts voters from both parties. If FPTP remains, that will be true next time, so Surrey south-west isn't a target seat.
Is Ed PM yet?
Wait to see the queues on 5 minutes to 10.
The difference now to the past is that unearned income is taxed much less than earned income so those who inherit or sit on assets or have large pensions contribute little just get richer while the earners can barely afford to rent a house let alone buy one.
The system is upside down and this government in trying to appeal to pensioners and the rich has exacerbated the situation.
Interestingly BBC London was having a right go at Hackney Council today over the fact that people who had registered in time were not able to vote.
All income is taxed at the same rates though and IHT is at 40%, even if you weren't a higher rate taxpayer when working.
I'm not an expert in CGT so can't comment on that. Certainly I think that only pensioners who are poor should get benefits. But generally I think that for all benefits, including tax credits.
Housing is a big issue, for me a bigger issue than the NHS, which is what I told the Labour party canvasser who came to my house. He looked surprised; a bit out of touch on this, I thought.
Over 50 before me in the queue and when I left the queue was 50% longer I estimate.
Both tories and Lib Dems working hard to get out the vote. Both ringing to try and get my lad to go who had already said he would not vote.
The other lad who was going to vote UKIP has gone to the cinema instead!
'Presumably the exit poll result has been handed to the media and the parties now?'
i completed one for Ipsos about an hour ago.
Have a feeling there will be a lot of "It's too close to call" hedge betting going on anyway...
Stick with The ARSE
Again the pictures in this tweet are not indicative of a free and fair election process.
https://twitter.com/ukrespectparty/status/596344939207864322
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/vile-katie-hopkins-says-nicola-5654055
I think Katie and Kelvin "McBoat people" McKenzie would make excellent Top Gear hosts !!
That said, it looks like a unilateralist move in monetary policy. Whether or not that would be compatible with Title VIII of TFEU is an open question.
SPIN - Con +17 .... trending down"
I put a bet on Tories 301-325 on the strength of your ARSE. I hope your confidence isn't waning?
GO ROGER!!!!
You have absolutely called it! In the last 5 years I have lost my personal allowance £4k net loss, £1k extra NI and now CON want to make me pay £8k more a year on my earned final salary contributions to pay for other people's inheritances!!
Roger - Oscar Director Best Film 2016!!!!
Once we as a nation have started earning more than we spend then we can start thinking about what our spending priorities should be. One of those priorities will be to pay down (or start the process) of paying off debt. Because that debt incurs interest and money spent on paying interest is money which cannot be spent on other "nicer" things.
The Tories should have been hammering this point home for the last 5 years instead of going on a spending spree promise in the last few weeks. Whatever the result they risk trashing their USP and disappointing their voters.
Dimbleby did not know the exit poll result at 9.59pm.
paulwaugh
.@TwitterUK says 100k ppl have now used the #IVoted hashtag. 1.3m tweets about #GE2015 so far.
Unearthed a fun little opportunity
You're going to be issuing a parallel currency over the border into Greece...?
Sunny and dry here in South Wiltshire with polling ‘brisk’ throughout the day apparently with a small queue waiting outside the roor at 7am. Met several people en route clutching their pink polling cards but no idea if turn-out is up or down on last time. – Spag bol, home baked loaf and bottle of English white for supper.
Also voted at 10am, 11am, 2pm and 7pm.....
I'm sticking my neck out here but I think it will be a Sinn Fein hold....
That's rather the point of having an election. That we get to choose who we prefer based on their manifestos and record.
I really don't like the contempt for the voter implied by all this post-election promising.
Nah, pinching ramshackle old boats and towing them across the Med
'If this ends up Miliband one seat ahead and Con lose Broadland by one vote I'm going to f ing kill you'
Lolololol
Their aren't many businesses that grow without increasing their debt, and it's generally reasonable to assume they would have fewer "nicer things" if they slowed their growth rate by limiting their access to cash.
So this is Speccie bigging up Labour conspiracy theories that Michael Gove told em.
It is why I stick to shoes (makes me happy) and food (makes others happy). My foodist-shoeist religion increases happiness, sharing, love and friendship. It is better than politics.
http://election.pressassociation.com/Declaration_times/general_2015_by_time.php
By this time tomorrow the '22 will probably offer you good money to take Cameron on the return journey.
Or, depending on how bad it is, halfway on the return journey.
Just a theory so DYOR.
I think (personally) they expect DK and Undecided to break for the Status Quo today. I am more doubtful