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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Your sortable & searchable PB guide to Labour’s top 80 CON
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Your sortable & searchable PB guide to Labour’s top 80 CON targets in England and Wales
The big question tonight is whether LAB can make enough gains from the Tories to offset the likely losses in Scotland where, on some polls, the red team could could every seat. The good news for them is that it is not CON which is benefiting but the SNP.
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That will, of course, throw everyone's predictions out the window, especially when combined with the shy tory effect.
This is way more complicated than buying shoes. Having said that, if Labour wins, I may change the shoes in my avatar for boots as they seem more appropriate for an authoritarian party like Labour.
What Scotland means is that Labour will need 20 Con gains just to stand still.
So to start going up (above where they are now), they will need the next (slightly harder) marginals to fall as well.
If the Tories lose their 1 seat in Scotland, 4 seats to UKIP and make 20 Lib Dem gains they will be on 321 seats - losses to Labour.
So I make it 48 Labour gains to a Labour lead in seats. Stevenage. Or Elmet & Rothwell when you consider that UKIP will probably take Thurrock. But Labour likely won't take Loughborough or Kingswood, so they need to reach Vale of Glamorgan.
The Labour plurality cheerleaders are putting a lot of trust in the national swing. I just think this is too many gains for Labour to make.
Did my civic duty, along with wife and daughter for her first GE at lunch time. Greens have got at least one vote in North Herts.
There seems to be such an avalanche of bad polls for the Blue team that it gets harder and harder to see them preventing EICIPM. Maybe the bad polls will act as motivation to some Kippers and Unionists to vote Blue.
And to all the PB cognoscenti may your ARSE go with you.
Now it is our turn to put the boot in.
I still can't believe Ed Davey pushing leaflets even this morning saying only the LD can stop the Tories !
Sorry, Ed. The LD is the Tory bitch.
football club urged theirs fans to think twice before voting for the sitting MP...ok, I am told Hartlepool football club is a bit crap anyway and almost got relegated...but anyway
I salute your indefatigability!
Saturdays with no ARSE to peruse first thing are going to be a little dull.
The problem with your hypothesis is that the Tories are highly unlikely to gain 20 seats from the LD.
So lets see what the polls say:
The constituency polls say they should have 270 seats each.
The national say Labour ahead by about 15-20 seats.
A while back me and isam bet on whether Ed would get 50% plus of the vote in his constituency. I said Yes, he said No.
Revenge politics? Hardly admirable
Isn’t there a PB lock-in tonight at some shady London pub or other? – any idea on the numbers of 'on the spot' reporters that will be attending?
Hope the evening is a great success for all involved, and look forward to reading their pronouncements throughout the night.
Ed in power won't change a lot, assuming the lights don't go out. Energy bills will rise to pay for the green initiatives and everyone's taxes will rise a little to pay for the Gaelgeld, but look on the bright side.
Scots will be better off, and our carbon footprint will disappear. And everyone else will be equal so any misery will be shared. And there will no more more Islamophobia allowed.
And lots of people will feel better about themselves.
Presumably some on here will have some first hand knowledge-
Bunnco?
Marquee Mark?
David Herdson?
Are we allowed to discuss after 10pm??
@MrJacHart: Each time someone from #Labour asks you about the #BedroomTax, ask them to explain how the Local Housing Allowance they introduced works...
If not, sorry !
Right, game on for the next 12 hours at least.... just left Paddington, and I'll be back in Penzance shortly after the polls close. As the saying (almost) goes, I'm going back to my constituency and preparing for no effective government.
I've missed a few hours so apologise for my ignorance, so what's the working hypothesis for the betting/polling disconnect. Is it a) market dominance by rich optimistic Tories; b) all the polls are 3-5% too red because of reasons; or c) UNS is old news and the Tories can now magically transmute level pegging to a 20 seat lead?
(In case this is mistaken for over-optimism, I'm going to be Southam-standard terrified about b) until at least Nuneaton at 1am).
Polls look good for Labour, but I'm not counting my chickens. Feeling nervy tonight.
signed: A right wing nut-job (copyright mural_s)
With the pasting Ed was getting in the press, I would suggest that "shy Labour" might also be in the equation?
Arf. - I'm sure you'll have some company very soon Mr Pulpstar. A long night ahead so go easy on the pork scratchings and Tequila slammers.
Given that the Labour and Conservative votes will be less evenly distributed in these seats than the Lib Dem vote, and that's a recipe for an almost complete wipeout. Twenty Tory gains could be at the low end.
Also notable is that not a single ICM poll in this Parliament had the Lib Dems on less than 10% until March 2015, and yet their final poll puts the Lib Dems on just 9%. I had expected the Lib Dems to rally as the election approached, but it hasn't happened.
7.5.15 LAB 287 (287) CON 272(272) LD 29(29) UKIP 3(3) Others 59(59) (Ed is crap is PM)
Go on - say it.
http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/comment/659131/#Comment_659131
8.4.15 LAB 292 (292) CON 272(271) LD 30(30) UKIP 2(2) Others 54(55) (Ed is crap is PM)
11.3.15 LAB 290 (295) CON 273(269) LD 30(30) UKIP 3(2) Others 54(54) (Ed is crap is PM)
10.2.15 LAB 295 (313) CON 268(267) LD 29(29) UKIP 2(2) Others 56(39) (Ed is crap is PM)
BJESUS Either consistently wrong or right for 3 months.
Tomorrow tells us which
Thankfully, we should get a better idea of its accuracy early in the night than we did in 2010. Last time round the BBC spent three hours rubbishing its own exit poll after the first seats to declare, in Sunderland, showed unexpected swings. The people that had come up with the poll – Curtice, Fisher and co – were unperturbed. They reportedly took one look at the Lib Dem share and put their feet up.
That wasn’t how it was reported on the BBC. This time Woodhouse, the BBC editor, is going to have a more direct line to Curtice, and put him on air. If you want to know how accurate the exit pollers think their forecast is, listen to Curtice. Only one important result is due before 2am – Nuneaton, a seat Labour need to win, at 1.30 – but if Curtice is confident in his poll by then, take note.
http://www.may2015.com/featured/election-2015-what-is-the-exit-poll-and-how-does-it-work/
I also tend to think that when it comes down to it in the polling place, most LAB/Green types will vote against the Tory, if it's a Tory marginal. Especially as in most cases they'll be able to vote with their heart in the local election. Plus possibly a shy Kipper factor eating into the Con vote.
Er, what?
Voted at 7.05, queue of 8 people. tellers said they had never seen a queue at that time. Lots of people coming in to vote as i left.
Hertford and Stortford, rock solid Tory hold, but I predict a largeish UKIP share (12-14% at a guess). Locals last year was ~1000 Con vs 850 UKIP
No Lib Dem candidate AT ALL in the locals (3 seats all up). 3 Con, 1 UKIP, 1 Lab.
so it looks Lab is working Ilford North in these crucial hours
"what are the best hopes for SLAB to hold a seat? Edinburgh South and East Lothian? "
Edinburgh South. A very talented and hard working MP who is in with a very good chance. Look out also for Aberdeen South.
And now I think I'll try to catch some sleep before heading to the count later.
I do hope NickPalmer wins, whatever the result nationally - I figure it's probably too late to jinx his chances, even though the polls are still open.
Any news from Eastbourne?