Although, to be fair, the Red Hand goes back much further than that: it was one of the traditional symbols of Ulster, and was used by cousin Edward for the Ulster Volunteers (the good ones)
Serious subject for a PhD thesis: Why are betting markets so slow in reacting ?
You do have weight of existing bets on markets that have been running for many months.
Having said that, this isn't new - the position of the spreads has been really consistent. Looking at lg's history, they've had Con in the 280 to 292 range all year (peaks above 290 mid-March, and this last week).
Re. Child benefit. My wife and I were talking about this the other day. We're middle-income working parents; the extra dough is welcome, especially with little one being preschool, but realistically we'd get by without it. Better would be to scrap it above a certain (low-ish) household income and use some of the savings to help subsidise childcare up to school age.
The savings need to be used to pay off the deficit. Just moving the money into another spending bucket does not help.
Once we as a nation have started earning more than we spend then we can start thinking about what our spending priorities should be. One of those priorities will be to pay down (or start the process) of paying off debt. Because that debt incurs interest and money spent on paying interest is money which cannot be spent on other "nicer" things.
The Tories should have been hammering this point home for the last 5 years instead of going on a spending spree promise in the last few weeks. Whatever the result they risk trashing their USP and disappointing their voters.
I actually think that if the Coalition had refrained from giving away any sweeties - no increase in the personal allowance, no cuts in Corporation Tax, Fuel Duty, etc - and just repeated the mantra that there was no money left, we had to stop adding to the debt pile and start paying it back, that they would be more popular now than they are.
It was when they started favouring one group over another that they undermined their own message. If there is money enough for a cut in fuel duty, or whatever, then you can't blame the voter for thinking that there is money enough for whatever else that voter wants.
Stop moaning. You lost in 2012 with the Budget. The 5% cut to top earners showed only one thing. For all their talk, money is always found for the mega rich who needs the least. They have never recovered since then.
What bollox
The top rate was 40% from 1997 until about 3 weeks before the 2010 election! It's now 45%, which is higher in case you are too thick to work it out.
HIgh rate taxpayers now don't get child tax credits, have not had their tax thresholds uprated with inflation, and if you earn a little bit more, you lose all your child benefit as well.
My pay slip tells me that my effective tax rate is 44.7% (gross vs net)
The tories have squeezed fairly hard but the economy is doing well, so I have a chance to as well if I work hard, so they got my vote.
But be warned, I am left with nothing from the state, so there's nothing left to cut from me. So what will Ed do?
Local rag tweeting that 100 people are now queuing at my polling station! I went for a run earlier and all polling stations were really busy.
Are we heading for large turnout? Several anecdotes below as well..?
The only reason I'm skeptical is that a lot was said about queues etc in 2010 and whilst turnout was up on the previous election, it wasn't a huge leap. Though I may also be influenced by the fact my polling station was very quiet today when I was there.
I was thinking more along the lines of supporting those who wish to work with childcare, as opposed to a free-for-all handout with no broader economic benefit.
If they have to be subsidised in order to make work pay for them, then there is an argument that the country would be better off with them not working or doing a different job
That was Thatcher's argument against the Nationalised Industries. I guess when it's Tory backers getting the money and sharing it with their Tory friends this stops being a problem.
At least voting SNP, you know your representative (probably) can't be bought. You cannot say that about Labour or the Tories or the Liberals or the Kippers. LibLabConKip will do what it takes to keep their snouts in the trough.
I don't support money being given to Tory backers or corruption.
Just voted in Ystrad Mynach (Caerphilly). They let my dog in the voting booth.
Word is it's been busy and a lot of young voters have been in. Which I think will be good for UKIP as the Kippers really seem to have captured the zeitgeist amongst young voters (probably misinformed, but at least they are involved); my Facebook page is full of Kipper v anti-Kipper fist-fights, among people who I've never seen involved in politics before.
It's that replicated across the country the Kippers will do well.
My vote counts for little here though. Safe Labour win.
Young voters in Wales will be backing Plaid Cymru. And remember they're much more likely to speak Welsh.
Well, I'm off to get ready for a count, then to work straight after in the AM - I have PB bets for UKIP to have 5 seats or less (I think I'm safe there) and Tories less than 300 seats (ditto), but if I am wrong about Lab being most seats or Ed being the next PM, extended absence will be due to tiredness, not embarrassment at my own ineptitude.
Having seen actual turnout numbers and turnout of tory pledge in 2 SW London seats I would say one of the LD incumbents could lose by as much as 4000
Seeing how hard Con are pressing Twickers I think that Cable is gone.
Would be moment of the night although I am also hearing things are looking bleak for Helen Grant in Maidstone and the LDs are very confident in Watford
Just voted in Ystrad Mynach (Caerphilly). They let my dog in the voting booth.
Word is it's been busy and a lot of young voters have been in. Which I think will be good for UKIP as the Kippers really seem to have captured the zeitgeist amongst young voters (probably misinformed, but at least they are involved); my Facebook page is full of Kipper v anti-Kipper fist-fights, among people who I've never seen involved in politics before.
It's that replicated across the country the Kippers will do well.
My vote counts for little here though. Safe Labour win.
I saw an official (well I assume it was, as it was professionally sign written) UKIP transit van on the Newport/Torfaen border today. So they've got some imprint in the Valleys and thereabouts .
Absolutely. I agree, but, most of them look at Murdoch and see incarnate the forces of wealth ranged against them. Which, to be fair, is true (not to say they aren't right to be against socialism, just that the Sun is a rather powerful mouthpiece).
It is an anathema to me why anyone pays attention to anything Murdoch says, or his proxies (papers)
Just as Cameron's Conservatives are not the right, Blair's Labour is not the left. So maybe the best comparison is to the anger and hate felt by Ukip supporters towards everyone from Cameron left who they felt betrayed or demeaned them, just as the left felt everyone from Blair right did the same.
UKIP is a good counter-example. I tend to discount them because of the high numbers of rather strange deluded types that seem to infest them. That is not to say that they do not have a group of nasties in there.
Well, I'm off to get ready for a count, then to work straight after in the AM - I have PB bets for UKIP to have 5 seats or less (I think I'm safe there) and Tories less than 300 seats (ditto), but if I am wrong about Lab being most seats or Ed being the next PM, extended absence will be due to tiredness, not embarrassment at my own ineptitude.
Good luck! Hope you'll keep in touch with what's happening elsewhere in the country.
If SPIN is correct, Labour could be winning 10 seats in Scotland.
Has to be possible. The required SNP swings in many places are so massive that even a modest recovery from SLAB will save a handful at the least, on top of the 5 or so the worst of the predictions said.
I think I am going to do one thing if the Tories lose today, I'll join the party, hopefully I can do some good, I'm not particularly interested in being an MP, but I do think a strong Conservative party is important for the country and hopefully I could help.
Will you try and make it a true conservative party and not as it is now, a near duplicate of Labour? However, you'd be better off in UKIP.
Make it a proper Tory party, not this idiotic rich man's club they have created over the last few years.
Right. Cos Cameron has been such a drag on the conservative vote hasn't he....
Such will be the refrain as the Tories tear themselves to pieces in 1-4 days (depending on whether he goes immediately as Ed has most seats, or it takes a few days for the Lab-SNP arrangement - not deal - to be formalised as much as is necessary).
History may be kinder to him and say that is unfair, but we'll hear it a lot shortly I am sure.
This idea that the Tories will tear themselves to pieces is a bit silly. The 2005 leadership election was really maturely played out, and back then - pre the expenses scandal - there were lots of older, men-in-grey-suits types in the party.
Don't forget the Tories had a big clear out in 2010 with lots of fresh faces and free thinkers coming in. Plus, trouble makers like Carswell and Reckless jumped ship.
I suspect the parliamentary party is far different now to what it was in the 90s.
The Tory party needs a "clause four moment" against the rich, big business, media elite, hedge fund types. A policy that is counter intuitive, to make those voters who are suspicious about the Tory party and their motives, values sit up and take notice. Cameron, Osborne et al could and can never pull such a thing off. Cameron leading the Tory party is the equivalent of a left wing firebrand Union boss leading the Labour party, it confirms all the doubts and the worst prejudices about Tories: rich, elites, out of touch, cruel, born to rule etc
No. They need to stop copying others, let alone Blair. They need to think hard about Conservatism, what it means, what it should mean, decide on it and tell us. And when thinking about it, they need to remember their history and that they have been at their best when they have thought about us first and that the "us" they need to be thinking about are "the people of England, that never have spoken yet" a la GK Chesterton and remember to include NI, Wales and Scotland in England.
(Though at this point remembering that there is more to England than London and some of the Home Counties would be good.)
Although, to be fair, the Red Hand goes back much further than that: it was one of the traditional symbols of Ulster, and was used by cousin Edward for the Ulster Volunteers (the good ones)
"Good ones"? If The first UVF and Carson had just gone with the direction of history Ireland would be richers, less bloody and the UK would be less tarnished. A United Irelandin 1922 would have been better for everyone.
The Tory party needs a "clause four moment" against the rich, big business, media elite, hedge fund types. A policy that is counter intuitive, to make those voters who are suspicious about the Tory party and their motives, values sit up and take notice. Cameron, Osborne et al could and can never pull such a thing off. Cameron leading the Tory party is the equivalent of a left wing firebrand Union boss leading the Labour party, it confirms all the doubts and the worst prejudices about Tories: rich, elites, out of touch, cruel, born to rule etc
Funnily enough I actually think Boris could surprise people if he were leader. Cameron and Osborne have never shown any interest in being anything other than a pair of corporate and media yes men. Perhaps that's how they enjoy doing politics and since New Labour got away with it, why shouldn't they? Boris may seem to be cut from the same cloth but I actually think he's rather more ambitious. It may seem a strange thing to say but neither Cameron or Osborne appear to aspire to very much. You could hardly say that of Boris.
He could easily become a Jeb Bush though if the Tories lose. Tainted by being a member of the Eton family.
Random guess but it's possible surbiton is mistaking you for MrsB, ex of this parish. I believe that she is the LD candidate in Rochester this time around.
Yes - I think you are right. I hope she does well.
Right.... time to retire to the telly with a coffee and watch "New Tricks" on UK Drama and then, at 10 o'clock, switch to the BBC and watch a UK Drama as old tricks unfold.
Serious subject for a PhD thesis: Why are betting markets so slow in reacting ?
You do have weight of existing bets on markets that have been running for many months.
Having said that, this isn't new - the position of the spreads has been really consistent. Looking at lg's history, they've had Con in the 280 to 292 range all year (peaks above 290 mid-March, and this last week).
But surely bets already made is sunk gains or losses. The current rate should be in tune to the market.
I was thinking more along the lines of supporting those who wish to work with childcare, as opposed to a free-for-all handout with no broader economic benefit.
If they have to be subsidised in order to make work pay for them, then there is an argument that the country would be better off with them not working or doing a different job
That was Thatcher's argument against the Nationalised Industries. I guess when it's Tory backers getting the money and sharing it with their Tory friends this stops being a problem.
At least voting SNP, you know your representative (probably) can't be bought. You cannot say that about Labour or the Tories or the Liberals or the Kippers. LibLabConKip will do what it takes to keep their snouts in the trough.
I don't support money being given to Tory backers or corruption.
Do you vote Tory? If you do, you support it. It is the Tories raison d'etre.
I do wonder, however, if it might fall foul of Illegal State Support at some point and be deemed illegal by the EU.
I think I am going to do one thing if the Tories lose today, I'll join the party, hopefully I can do some good, I'm not particularly interested in being an MP, but I do think a strong Conservative party is important for the country and hopefully I could help.
Will you try and make it a true conservative party and not as it is now, a near duplicate of Labour? However, you'd be better off in UKIP.
Make it a proper Tory party, not this idiotic rich man's club they have created over the last few years.
Right. Cos Cameron has been such a drag on the conservative vote hasn't he....
Such will be the refrain as the Tories tear themselves to pieces in 1-4 days (depending on whether he goes immediately as Ed has most seats, or it takes a few days for the Lab-SNP arrangement - not deal - to be formalised as much as is necessary).
History may be kinder to him and say that is unfair, but we'll hear it a lot shortly I am sure.
Hmmm the point im making is that Camerons carried the party at times. I cant think of anyone who would have done as well never mind better. If the elections close and there is any chance of an imminent second poll they would be wise to keep him.
Having seen actual turnout numbers and turnout of tory pledge in 2 SW London seats I would say one of the LD incumbents could lose by as much as 4000
Seeing how hard Con are pressing Twickers I think that Cable is gone.
Would be moment of the night although I am also hearing things are looking bleak for Helen Grant in Maidstone and the LDs are very confident in Watford
As PB's editor for the next few hours, any suggestions for threads, I don't think there's much happening tonight.
Is it a good night to publish my thread on AV?
Maybe a discussion on whether or not TND will tweet about some opinion poll results early if they look good for the Tories. What time is Yougov tonight? :-)
Edit: Oh I see that as I was writing this little bit of sarcasm TND actually did just that :-)
The Tory party needs a "clause four moment" against the rich, big business, media elite, hedge fund types. A policy that is counter intuitive, to make those voters who are suspicious about the Tory party and their motives, values sit up and take notice. Cameron, Osborne et al could and can never pull such a thing off. Cameron leading the Tory party is the equivalent of a left wing firebrand Union boss leading the Labour party, it confirms all the doubts and the worst prejudices about Tories: rich, elites, out of touch, cruel, born to rule etc
No. They need to stop copying others, let alone Blair. They need to think hard about Conservatism, what it means, what it should mean, decide on it and tell us. And when thinking about it, they need to remember their history and that they have been at their best when they have thought about us first and that the "us" they need to be thinking about are "the people of England, that never have spoken yet" a la GK Chesterton and remember to include NI, Wales and Scotland in England.
(Though at this point remembering that there is more to England than London and some of the Home Counties would be good.)
Re. Child benefit. My wife and I were talking about this the other day. We're middle-income working parents; the extra dough is welcome, especially with little one being preschool, but realistically we'd get by without it. Better would be to scrap it above a certain (low-ish) household income and use some of the savings to help subsidise childcare up to school age.
The savings need to be used to pay off the deficit. Just moving the money into another spending bucket does not help.
Once we as a nation have started earning more than we spend then we can start thinking about what our spending priorities should be. One of those priorities will be to pay down (or start the process) of paying off debt. Because that debt incurs interest and money spent on paying interest is money which cannot be spent on other "nicer" things.
The Tories should have been hammering this point home for the last 5 years instead of going on a spending spree promise in the last few weeks. Whatever the result they risk trashing their USP and disappointing their voters.
I actually think that if the Coalition had refrained from giving away any sweeties - no increase in the personal allowance, no cuts in Corporation Tax, Fuel Duty, etc - and just repeated the mantra that there was no money left, we had to stop adding to the debt pile and start paying it back, that they would be more popular now than they are.
It was when they started favouring one group over another that they undermined their own message. If there is money enough for a cut in fuel duty, or whatever, then you can't blame the voter for thinking that there is money enough for whatever else that voter wants.
Stop moaning. You lost in 2012 with the Budget. The 5% cut to top earners showed only one thing. For all their talk, money is always found for the mega rich who needs the least. They have never recovered since then.
What bollox
The top rate was 40% from 1997 until about 3 weeks before the 2010 election! It's now 45%, which is higher in case you are too thick to work it out.
HIgh rate taxpayers now don't get child tax credits, have not had their tax thresholds uprated with inflation, and if you earn a little bit more, you lose all your child benefit as well.
My pay slip tells me that my effective tax rate is 44.7% (gross vs net)
The tories have squeezed fairly hard but the economy is doing well, so I have a chance to as well if I work hard, so they got my vote.
But be warned, I am left with nothing from the state, so there's nothing left to cut from me. So what will Ed do?
Increase your tax to 50% in the first budget and then to 55% in 2016, 60% in 2017, 70% in 2018 and 75% in 2019 - to pay off the Scots.
Random guess but it's possible surbiton is mistaking you for MrsB, ex of this parish. I believe that she is the LD candidate in Rochester this time around.
Yes - I think you are right. I hope she does well.
Right.... time to retire to the telly with a coffee and watch "New Tricks" on UK Drama and then, at 10 o'clock, switch to the BBC and watch a UK Drama as old tricks unfold.
Re. Child benefit. My wife and I were talking about this the other day. We're middle-income working parents; the extra dough is welcome, especially with little one being preschool, but realistically we'd get by without it. Better would be to scrap it above a certain (low-ish) household income and use some of the savings to help subsidise childcare up to school age.
The savings need to be used to pay off the deficit. Just moving the money into another spending bucket does not help.
Once we as a nation have started earning more than we spend then we can start thinking about what our spending priorities should be. One of those priorities will be to pay down (or start the process) of paying off debt. Because that debt incurs interest and money spent on paying interest is money which cannot be spent on other "nicer" things.
The Tories should have been hammering this point home for the last 5 years instead of going on a spending spree promise in the last few weeks. Whatever the result they risk trashing their USP and disappointing their voters.
I was thinking more along the lines of supporting those who wish to work with childcare, as opposed to a free-for-all handout with no broader economic benefit.
If they have to be subsidised in order to make work pay for them, then there is an argument that the country would be better off with them not working or doing a different job
Hmmm - something like that would only be temporary though, and is more about keeping people in employment long term. Either way, it's a more cost effective and, yes, 'progressive' use of money than the splurge of child benefit.
My other big idea is to raise the state pension age to 71 for anyone under 50 (+ details). No point b*ggering about with spare-room subsidies and cutting disability benefits - it's the state pension that wants trimming.
1) That ICM poll must have quite a substantial shift to Labour today - I believe the Conservatives has a lead of nearly 1% yesterday and today's sample was only a third of the size of the previous day's.
2) In 1992 the opinion polls were shifting steadily towards the Conservatives during the last week, this year they've shifted towards Labour. So a 1992 type surprise would be an even worse performance for the polling companies than it was back then.
3) The village in which the Millibands were voting is a very posh place with expensive houses - I'm sure everyone will be amazed that EdM's constituency residence is not among Labour voters.
4) TSE's dad deserves a special mention for his voting record - 1983 Lab, 1997 Con, 2015 LD - such a heroic support of lost causes is what democracy is built upon.
if cameron comes first in seats he needs to be quick off the mark in making a generous offer to all the partys, PR, FFA for Scotland, House of Lords reform, EV4EL, because if he doesn't Ed surely will http://t.co/282bOWot8w
Yes, a foursome, every man's fantasy, a chance to disappoint four women at once.
That's a fivesome.
In a foursome you just feel burning shame in front of three women. Or two women and another man. When there's only one women it ceases being a foursome and becomes a gang bang. Well, that's what my wife told me anyway.
I think I am going to do one thing if the Tories lose today, I'll join the party, hopefully I can do some good, I'm not particularly interested in being an MP, but I do think a strong Conservative party is important for the country and hopefully I could help.
Will you try and make it a true conservative party and not as it is now, a near duplicate of Labour? However, you'd be better off in UKIP.
Make it a proper Tory party, not this idiotic rich man's club they have created over the last few years.
Right. Cos Cameron has been such a drag on the conservative vote hasn't he....
Yes,Cameron has polled more consistently popular that reD and polled as more popular than his party. Chip-on-shoulder kippers should get off the class-warfare bit and suppress their inferiority complexes - that's Labour's game.
Judging by the way predictions and markets seem slow on the uptake I'm guessing the exit poll will show Tories narrowly most seats, which is slowly proven wrong through the night.
I'm confidently back on Con most seats after realising one thing that I don't think has been factored in: the Lib Dem collapse in favour of Lab in the South (excl. London). I've just been doing a map of second places (http://i.gyazo.com/be87e23c6294ce419ab334a40a90c5f3.png) and it's occurred to me that in each place where the Lib Dems are second - they could lose 20% of the vote and it to go to Labour without Labour actually gaining (m)any seats. This means that the massive swings in the south which will result in few seats going to the Tories are distorting the overall picture. Up to 4% of the nationwide vote (from Lab) could be wasted with no gains if this happens in the South.
Wishful thinking ends in exactly 2hours:08 minutes !
Even you have to agree that the massive LD -> Lab swings in the South will cause lots more Lab wasted votes for few seats, and that for every 1% of new wasted votes for Lab gives the Tories a 1% advantage where it matters - and visa versa.
You are forgetting UKIP will be taking 10-15% votes in the South, mainly from you.
Surely ukip taking 15% is irrelevant to whether labour votes are wasted.
It could take Labour over the line in some places unexpected.
And in some northern places it could take the Tories.
Although, to be fair, the Red Hand goes back much further than that: it was one of the traditional symbols of Ulster, and was used by cousin Edward for the Ulster Volunteers (the good ones)
"Good ones"? If The first UVF and Carson had just gone with the direction of history Ireland would be richers, less bloody and the UK would be less tarnished. A United Irelandin 1922 would have been better for everyone.
There are no "good guys".
E Carson was the man most responsible for partition and the most significant threat to the armed authority of the British state in the twentieth century, far more threatening in practice than Gerry Adams or even the leaders of the Central Powers or the Axis. Ironic because as a Dubliner he hated the idea of partition, but the only thing he hated more was the idea of Catholics in charge of Ireland.
Just voted in Ystrad Mynach (Caerphilly). They let my dog in the voting booth.
Word is it's been busy and a lot of young voters have been in. Which I think will be good for UKIP as the Kippers really seem to have captured the zeitgeist amongst young voters (probably misinformed, but at least they are involved); my Facebook page is full of Kipper v anti-Kipper fist-fights, among people who I've never seen involved in politics before.
It's that replicated across the country the Kippers will do well.
My vote counts for little here though. Safe Labour win.
Young voters in Wales will be backing Plaid Cymru. And remember they're much more likely to speak Welsh.
I don't think the youngsters vote Plaid. Plaid are the party of the Welsh speakers - round this area there aren't many Welsh speakers. Though Beci Newton, their local candidate, is one for the eye-candy fans.
The Tory party needs a "clause four moment" against the rich, big business, media elite, hedge fund types. A policy that is counter intuitive, to make those voters who are suspicious about the Tory party and their motives, values sit up and take notice. Cameron, Osborne et al could and can never pull such a thing off. Cameron leading the Tory party is the equivalent of a left wing firebrand Union boss leading the Labour party, it confirms all the doubts and the worst prejudices about Tories: rich, elites, out of touch, cruel, born to rule etc
Funnily enough I actually think Boris could surprise people if he were leader. Cameron and Osborne have never shown any interest in being anything other than a pair of corporate and media yes men. Perhaps that's how they enjoy doing politics and since New Labour got away with it, why shouldn't they? Boris may seem to be cut from the same cloth but I actually think he's rather more ambitious. It may seem a strange thing to say but neither Cameron or Osborne appear to aspire to very much. You could hardly say that of Boris.
He could easily become a Jeb Bush though if the Tories lose. Tainted by being a member of the Eton family.
The Tories would be bonkers to elect Boris. Even though he is popular, he hasn't caused London to meltdown (as predicted by the Guardian TWICE), he is just totally the wrong bloke at the wrong time and also the press haven't even started digging into him..
That reminds me actually. People going on about Ed getting shit thrown at him from the media, Boris had some pretty disgusting smears thrown out, including the Boris is a racist one.
In contrast Red Ken got the media treatment, but it was policy / scandal, less of the colorful personal life.
I see Fenster just mentioned Ystrad Mynach. That reminds what someone in work said today. That Ukip might win the Rhondda. I rather doubt it but they have potential in the Valleys and it could be symbolic given the remarkable Labour heritage in the region.
Judging by the way predictions and markets seem slow on the uptake I'm guessing the exit poll will show Tories narrowly most seats, which is slowly proven wrong through the night.
I'm confidently back on Con most seats after realising one thing that I don't think has been factored in: the Lib Dem collapse in favour of Lab in the South (excl. London). I've just been doing a map of second places (http://i.gyazo.com/be87e23c6294ce419ab334a40a90c5f3.png) and it's occurred to me that in each place where the Lib Dems are second - they could lose 20% of the vote and it to go to Labour without Labour actually gaining (m)any seats. This means that the massive swings in the south which will result in few seats going to the Tories are distorting the overall picture. Up to 4% of the nationwide vote (from Lab) could be wasted with no gains if this happens in the South.
Wishful thinking ends in exactly 2hours:08 minutes !
Even you have to agree that the massive LD -> Lab swings in the South will cause lots more Lab wasted votes for few seats, and that for every 1% of new wasted votes for Lab gives the Tories a 1% advantage where it matters - and visa versa.
You are forgetting UKIP will be taking 10-15% votes in the South, mainly from you.
Surely ukip taking 15% is irrelevant to whether labour votes are wasted.
It could take Labour over the line in some places unexpected.
And in some northern places it could take the Tories.
Basically: the UKIP& SNP surge and LD collapse make it unlikely that the exit poll will be picking up everything (or even only a little bit of it) likely making it bollocks. On that not I'm off for a kip and will be back ~2:00 when we start to work out what is actually happening.
In a foursome you just feel burning shame in front of three women. Or two women and another man. When there's only one women it ceases being a foursome and becomes a gang bang. Well, that's what my wife told me anyway.
My suspicion is that all these scenarios are more enjoyable in theory than in practice.
Although, to be fair, the Red Hand goes back much further than that: it was one of the traditional symbols of Ulster, and was used by cousin Edward for the Ulster Volunteers (the good ones)
"Good ones"? If The first UVF and Carson had just gone with the direction of history Ireland would be richers, less bloody and the UK would be less tarnished. A United Irelandin 1922 would have been better for everyone.
There are no "good guys".
So you don't believe in the right of self-determination?
Although, to be fair, the Red Hand goes back much further than that: it was one of the traditional symbols of Ulster, and was used by cousin Edward for the Ulster Volunteers (the good ones)
"Good ones"? If The first UVF and Carson had just gone with the direction of history Ireland would be richers, less bloody and the UK would be less tarnished. A United Irelandin 1922 would have been better for everyone.
There are no "good guys".
E Carson was the man most responsible for partition and the most significant threat to the armed authority of the British state in the twentieth century, far more threatening in practice than Gerry Adams or even the leaders of the Central Powers or the Axis. Ironic because as a Dubliner he hated the idea of partition, but the only thing he hated more was the idea of Catholics in charge of Ireland.
An Ireland with a 25% Protestant population share (back then it's obviously dwindled since) would have been a very different country to an Irish Republic with 95% Catholic population. To an extent the outcome of the Irish Republic was determined by partition as much as demographics.
I was thinking more along the lines of supporting those who wish to work with childcare, as opposed to a free-for-all handout with no broader economic benefit.
If they have to be subsidised in order to make work pay for them, then there is an argument that the country would be better off with them not working or doing a different job
That was Thatcher's argument against the Nationalised Industries. I guess when it's Tory backers getting the money and sharing it with their Tory friends this stops being a problem.
At least voting SNP, you know your representative (probably) can't be bought. You cannot say that about Labour or the Tories or the Liberals or the Kippers. LibLabConKip will do what it takes to keep their snouts in the trough.
I don't support money being given to Tory backers or corruption.
Do you vote Tory? If you do, you support it. It is the Tories raison d'etre.
I do wonder, however, if it might fall foul of Illegal State Support at some point and be deemed illegal by the EU.
I do vote Tory. And, no, it's not the Tories' raison d'etre.
Reform that ye may preserve is the motto that underpins true Conservatism.
In a foursome you just feel burning shame in front of three women. Or two women and another man. When there's only one women it ceases being a foursome and becomes a gang bang. Well, that's what my wife told me anyway.
My suspicion is that all these scenarios are more enjoyable in theory than in practice.
I was just thinking about the possible permutations and how I would react to them in the morning. It soon became obvious that they all resolved into two categories:
* Wow, that was unexpected! * Hmmm, this is going to be interesting.
In a foursome you just feel burning shame in front of three women. Or two women and another man. When there's only one women it ceases being a foursome and becomes a gang bang. Well, that's what my wife told me anyway.
My suspicion is that all these scenarios are more enjoyable in theory than in practice.
Depends entirely on your state of mind at the time, and if you are relaxed enough.
Just voted in Ystrad Mynach (Caerphilly). They let my dog in the voting booth.
Word is it's been busy and a lot of young voters have been in. Which I think will be good for UKIP as the Kippers really seem to have captured the zeitgeist amongst young voters (probably misinformed, but at least they are involved); my Facebook page is full of Kipper v anti-Kipper fist-fights, among people who I've never seen involved in politics before.
It's that replicated across the country the Kippers will do well.
My vote counts for little here though. Safe Labour win.
Young voters in Wales will be backing Plaid Cymru. And remember they're much more likely to speak Welsh.
I don't think the youngsters vote Plaid. Plaid are the party of the Welsh speakers - round this area there aren't many Welsh speakers. Though Beci Newton, their local candidate, is one for the eye-candy fans.
Maybe you're in the wrong demographic. But the younger generation in Wales have the highest percentage of Welsh language speakers.
I see Fenster just mentioned Ystrad Mynach. That reminds what someone in work said today. That Ukip might win the Rhondda. I rather doubt it but they have potential in the Valleys and it could be symbolic given the remarkable Labour heritage in the region.
We expect UKIP to pick up a good sized protest vote, but they are not going to get anywhere near Labour in any of the valleys.
Comments
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ulster_Volunteers
Having said that, this isn't new - the position of the spreads has been really consistent. Looking at lg's history, they've had Con in the 280 to 292 range all year (peaks above 290 mid-March, and this last week).
The top rate was 40% from 1997 until about 3 weeks before the 2010 election! It's now 45%, which is higher in case you are too thick to work it out.
HIgh rate taxpayers now don't get child tax credits, have not had their tax thresholds uprated with inflation, and if you earn a little bit more, you lose all your child benefit as well.
My pay slip tells me that my effective tax rate is 44.7% (gross vs net)
The tories have squeezed fairly hard but the economy is doing well, so I have a chance to as well if I work hard, so they got my vote.
But be warned, I am left with nothing from the state, so there's nothing left to cut from me. So what will Ed do?
I'll get my coat..
Tory source tells @tnewtondunn their private polling says 302 seats, he tells @NewsUK election party
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CEbVtzqWYAA6mNu.jpg
Don't forget the Tories had a big clear out in 2010 with lots of fresh faces and free thinkers coming in. Plus, trouble makers like Carswell and Reckless jumped ship.
I suspect the parliamentary party is far different now to what it was in the 90s.
Preach
There are no "good guys".
He could easily become a Jeb Bush though if the Tories lose. Tainted by being a member of the Eton family.
Right.... time to retire to the telly with a coffee and watch "New Tricks" on UK Drama and then, at 10 o'clock, switch to the BBC and watch a UK Drama as old tricks unfold.
I do wonder, however, if it might fall foul of Illegal State Support at some point and be deemed illegal by the EU.
TSE appears to be "celibating" for one.
Edit: Oh I see that as I was writing this little bit of sarcasm TND actually did just that :-)
Squeaky bum time though......
All of them.
I'll get my coat.
My other big idea is to raise the state pension age to 71 for anyone under 50 (+ details). No point b*ggering about with spare-room subsidies and cutting disability benefits - it's the state pension that wants trimming.
To late to vote for me now though, kids
1) That ICM poll must have quite a substantial shift to Labour today - I believe the Conservatives has a lead of nearly 1% yesterday and today's sample was only a third of the size of the previous day's.
2) In 1992 the opinion polls were shifting steadily towards the Conservatives during the last week, this year they've shifted towards Labour. So a 1992 type surprise would be an even worse performance for the polling companies than it was back then.
3) The village in which the Millibands were voting is a very posh place with expensive houses - I'm sure everyone will be amazed that EdM's constituency residence is not among Labour voters.
4) TSE's dad deserves a special mention for his voting record - 1983 Lab, 1997 Con, 2015 LD - such a heroic support of lost causes is what democracy is built upon.
CON 303
LAB 249
LD 31
SNP 43
PC 4
GRN 1
UKIP 1
DUP 10
SF 5
SDLP 2
NI IND 1
Can it happen?!
Is it a dream?!!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eAiKC1FEc-A
In a foursome you just feel burning shame in front of three women. Or two women and another man. When there's only one women it ceases being a foursome and becomes a gang bang. Well, that's what my wife told me anyway.
https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/596386162761138177
SNP's private "polling" was someone checking for mentions on Twitter, wasn't it?
I said, what about masterchef' ... She laughed.
That reminds me actually. People going on about Ed getting shit thrown at him from the media, Boris had some pretty disgusting smears thrown out, including the Boris is a racist one.
In contrast Red Ken got the media treatment, but it was policy / scandal, less of the colorful personal life.
I must admit I'm slightly surprised!
@MrHarryCole @tnewtondunn At 10pm five years ago Tory HQ were still insisting they had a majority #PinchOfSalt
Reform that ye may preserve is the motto that underpins true Conservatism.
Even if Macaulay was a Whig
* Wow, that was unexpected!
* Hmmm, this is going to be interesting.
Or possibly both at once. ;-)
Or so I'm told...
Tory activist told by Tory journo that a Tory "source" told him about Tory "polling" showing the Tories doing well.
All sounds a bit.... Romneyish...
High levels of tactical voting in Edinburgh.
Could it be enough in West and South?