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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » GE2015 Day Minus 1 – the latest polling/betting round-up

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  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,036
    Neil said:

    Sandpit said:

    Daniel said:

    Seriously, could Greens finish above LDs? only 2 points behind.

    But not standing in half as many seats as the LDs though.
    Standing in nearly 90% of seats!

    Didn't know that, thanks Neil.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,150
    stodge said:

    Do all these polls make today Omnihypermegapolling Day ?

    April 2015 didn't quite reach the 76 polls of April 2010, but 69 isn't far off!

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/594817333664817152
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Daniel said:

    PeterC said:

    Daniel said:

    Turnout predicted to be 69%.

    By whom?

    #GE2015: Voter turnout predicted to be 69% across Great Britain, with Scotland above the average at 71%. #mrx #polls http://t.co/PGopiSsQwG

    — TNS UK (@TNS_UK) May 6, 2015
    That would suit my bets nicely.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    isam said:

    Telegraph Politics (@TelePolitics)
    06/05/2015 15:55
    #JeSuisEd: Ed Miliband supporters tweet messy food selfies tgr.ph/1Ighlel

    That is nearly as pathetic as the Sun Front Page.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,712
    That TNS turnout prediction seems very high to me.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Pulpstar said:

    30 million turnout poll expected tommorow I hear.

    Alot of self selection bias mind, and a strict turnout filter.

    Canvassing anecdotes show they're all voting for Nick Palmer.
    A public groundswell for NP4PM is inevitable.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,657
    Does anyone agree with me that tomorrow will be bliss as the media frenzy quietens down for at least a few hours which may result in coverage of some genuine non political news stories for a change
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,032
    Still no ICM?
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I'm telling from 11am - 9pm - I wonder how many disappointed would-be voters I'll trip across...

    Any know how many actually show up and can't vote typically?
    watford30 said:

    In less than 24 hours, thousands of Russell Brand's disciples could be turning up at polling stations, only to discover that they're unable to vote.

  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Pulpstar said:

    30 million turnout poll expected tommorow I hear.

    Alot of self selection bias mind, and a strict turnout filter.

    I expect they will tease us by releasing the results bit-by-bit on twitter for hours, as is the modern custom.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    Scott_P said:

    @stephenkb: The nightmare, now in graph form thanks to @NCPoliticsUK: http://t.co/9p5Ry1HqyT

    What I can't quite get my head around a bit is the why if there is a "shy Tory" factor, why would it be with online polling rather than telephone (which are showing the Tories doing better). Surely if you are a bit ashamed of admitting to wanting to vote Tory it is would be harder to do if somebody rings you up and asks you directly, than clicking a drop down online?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @Rob_Merrick: Lab only confident of 25 wins, with 20 to 25 “neck and neck” ....says @PickardJE https://t.co/FLZd83ZNYb
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Holy Cow - what timeslot/channel is she on?

    The BBC’s poundshop Kilroy, Victoria Derbyshire, managed just 39,000 viewers last Thursday, rounded down to zero in the overnight ratings. It has averaged just 73,000 viewers so far.

    Couldn't happen to a nicer person...

  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    stodge said:

    That Cable has come out so publicly to speak out against a 2017 EU In-Out referendum, is telling - just how many LDs has Clegg agreed his redlines with exactly? He'll need senior colleagues on his side at the very least - and I don't just mean Alexander and Laws, either.

    I think it's a dangerous development and illustrates how things could go very wrong very wrong very quickly for the LDs on Friday.

    In 2010, there was reticence about going into Coalition with the Conservatives but those who would have preferred to work with Labour had not only a weak hand but were not helped by Labour's antics.

    Now, the situation is very different. We've had the Coalition 1.0 Experience and it's not been pleasant though proponents will argue it has enabled some key aspects of LD policy to be successfully enacted even though the flip side has been having to support areas of CON policy with which elements in the party were profoundly uncomfortable.

    The Coalition provided stable Government at a much needed time backed by a solid majority. It now seems likely that majority will disappear. Between those eager to "finish the job" and those who say "never again" are the majority who need reassurance that Coalition 2.0 will and would be a better experience for the Party.

    Vince is trying to play the anti-Coalition hand in response to Nick's attempts to bounce the Party into Coalition 2.0. It's a worrying sign and I really think the LDs could potentially be in a serious place in the next few weeks.

    Interesting. What do you think could unfold in the following weeks?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,712

    Does anyone agree with me that tomorrow will be bliss as the media frenzy quietens down for at least a few hours which may result in coverage of some genuine non political news stories for a change

    It will probably be the usual.. 'Voting is slow' in the morning. 'Voting is brisk' in the afternoon/early evening. Huge turnout/queues in locations x,y and z in late evening etc.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417

    That TNS turnout prediction seems very high to me.

    High turnout favours the Conservatives right ?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    isam said:

    What is it about the conservatives that makes the racist homophobe Kerry Smith endorse them?

    The Enquirer (@Enquirernews)
    06/05/2015 15:04
    Parliamentary candidate Kerry Smith urges voters to choose Conservatives: theenquirer.co.uk/parliamentary

    Is that the former UKIP PPC?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,657

    Does anyone agree with me that tomorrow will be bliss as the media frenzy quietens down for at least a few hours which may result in coverage of some genuine non political news stories for a change

    It will probably be the usual.. 'Voting is slow' in the morning. 'Voting is brisk' in the afternoon/early evening. Huge turnout/queues in locations x,y and z in late evening etc.
    Spot on
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited May 2015
    Ha, glad to see you managed to walk free from court today Miss Plato..! :lol:
    Plato said:

    I'm telling from 11am - 9pm - I wonder how many disappointed would-be voters I'll trip across...

    Any know how many actually show up and can't vote typically?

    watford30 said:

    In less than 24 hours, thousands of Russell Brand's disciples could be turning up at polling stations, only to discover that they're unable to vote.

  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    That's fascinating.
    Scott_P said:

    @stephenkb: The nightmare, now in graph form thanks to @NCPoliticsUK: http://t.co/9p5Ry1HqyT

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,150
    DavidL said:

    Still no ICM?

    Just two phone polls so far this month - ComRes and Ashcroft.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,712
    Scott_P said:

    @Rob_Merrick: Lab only confident of 25 wins, with 20 to 25 “neck and neck” ....says @PickardJE https://t.co/FLZd83ZNYb

    Where? Scotland? If so, I disagree. Gains from the Tories? Possible. Gains from both the Tories and Lib Dems combined? If so, bad news for Labour.
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    TGOHF said:

    Populus/BMG/Opinium/TNS in - not a single Lab lead ?

    Strange how posters are slowly coming to the mindset that EICIPM though.
  • AllyPally_RobAllyPally_Rob Posts: 605

    Scott_P said:

    @Rob_Merrick: Lab only confident of 25 wins, with 20 to 25 “neck and neck” ....says @PickardJE https://t.co/FLZd83ZNYb

    Where? Scotland? If so, I disagree. Gains from the Tories? Possible. Gains from both the Tories and Lib Dems combined? If so, bad news for Labour.
    Guessing 'wins' means gains from CON?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822

    Scott_P said:

    @Rob_Merrick: Lab only confident of 25 wins, with 20 to 25 “neck and neck” ....says @PickardJE https://t.co/FLZd83ZNYb

    Where? Scotland? If so, I disagree. Gains from the Tories? Possible. Gains from both the Tories and Lib Dems combined? If so, bad news for Labour.
    Yes, from both Con+LD according to the article
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,509
    Dair said:

    They will rue the day.

    The Spectator put an image of a Nicola Sturgeon with her bewbs out on their front cover

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CEUsaLQWoAAXptT.jpg

    It's parodying Liberty Leading The People by Delacroix, I like the depiction of Nicola as Scotland's own Marianne.
    Inspired cover
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Scott_P said:

    @stephenkb: The nightmare, now in graph form thanks to @NCPoliticsUK: http://t.co/9p5Ry1HqyT

    What I can't quite get my head around a bit is the why if there is a "shy Tory" factor, why would it be with online polling rather than telephone (which are showing the Tories doing better). Surely if you are a bit ashamed of admitting to wanting to vote Tory it is would be harder to do if somebody rings you up and asks you directly, than clicking a drop down online?
    You have to be unshy on first contact - ie when you join the panel.

    Perhaps panel members don't admit to being Tory on a first date ;)

  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,234
    If Cam resigns on Friday morning, #Priti4Leader will be trending by lunchtime!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,712

    Scott_P said:

    @Rob_Merrick: Lab only confident of 25 wins, with 20 to 25 “neck and neck” ....says @PickardJE https://t.co/FLZd83ZNYb

    Where? Scotland? If so, I disagree. Gains from the Tories? Possible. Gains from both the Tories and Lib Dems combined? If so, bad news for Labour.
    Ah. Seen it now. I read that as meaning Labour think they have 25 gains from both the Tories and LDs combined in the bag (prob 17 Tory and 8 LD) and a further 25 TCTC.

    That would put their maximum Tory gains around the 42-45 mark.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Plato said:

    That's fascinating.

    Scott_P said:

    @stephenkb: The nightmare, now in graph form thanks to @NCPoliticsUK: http://t.co/9p5Ry1HqyT

    Wow. Could that translate to polls underestimating Con by 2 to 7%? That would be fun.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Scott_P said:

    @stephenkb: The nightmare, now in graph form thanks to @NCPoliticsUK: http://t.co/9p5Ry1HqyT

    What I can't quite get my head around a bit is the why if there is a "shy Tory" factor, why would it be with online polling rather than telephone (which are showing the Tories doing better). Surely if you are a bit ashamed of admitting to wanting to vote Tory it is would be harder to do if somebody rings you up and asks you directly, than clicking a drop down online?
    I think online polls if they get it wrong, it seems to not be getting a balanced sample. There's a fair bit of evidence to suggest this could be the case (eg the proportion who claim to have watched the debates) but we'll see soon enough.

    If the online pollsters are wrong, I really, really hope its not put down to "shy Tory" rather than simply being "wrong". The first rule of polling is to get a balanced sample, if they've failed to do that it isn't because of shy anything but because self-selecting polling hasn't worked for some reason - and that is what needs to be looked at not blaming it on people giving the wrong answers on an online poll.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    Scott_P said:

    @stephenkb: The nightmare, now in graph form thanks to @NCPoliticsUK: http://t.co/9p5Ry1HqyT

    What I can't quite get my head around a bit is the why if there is a "shy Tory" factor, why would it be with online polling rather than telephone (which are showing the Tories doing better). Surely if you are a bit ashamed of admitting to wanting to vote Tory it is would be harder to do if somebody rings you up and asks you directly, than clicking a drop down online?
    Psychology is strange.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264

    Scott_P said:

    @stephenkb: The nightmare, now in graph form thanks to @NCPoliticsUK: http://t.co/9p5Ry1HqyT

    What I can't quite get my head around a bit is the why if there is a "shy Tory" factor, why would it be with online polling rather than telephone (which are showing the Tories doing better). Surely if you are a bit ashamed of admitting to wanting to vote Tory it is would be harder to do if somebody rings you up and asks you directly, than clicking a drop down online?
    The internet is more left wing. See twitter.
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    Chameleon said:

    Plato said:

    That's fascinating.

    Scott_P said:

    @stephenkb: The nightmare, now in graph form thanks to @NCPoliticsUK: http://t.co/9p5Ry1HqyT

    Wow. Could that translate to polls underestimating Con by 2 to 7%? That would be fun.
    I think it could be more. What is the odds for a three figure Cameron majority?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Boo

    @martinboon: No Twitter teasing, no red herrings, no hints. @ICMResearch @guardian poll will be with you when it's with you. Sorry @TSEofPB

    Is that tomorrow or today? Or is Ipsos MORI tomorrow?
    The only polls tomorrow are MORI and Ashcroft
    This is ICM

    Boo

    @martinboon: No Twitter teasing, no red herrings, no hints. @ICMResearch @guardian poll will be with you when it's with you. Sorry @TSEofPB

    Is that tomorrow or today? Or is Ipsos MORI tomorrow?
    ICM today Ipsos Mori in the morning.
    Thanks, guys!

    So we're still waiting on?

    Panelbase today
    ICM today

    Ipsos MORI tomorrow
    Ashcroft tomorrow
    Does anyone want to bet that we learn nothing new from them? A pint of tick-tock!
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,387

    That TNS turnout prediction seems very high to me.

    Ben Page from Mori was tweeting that he thinks turnout might reach 70% this time.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,978
    Not long now until the ICM
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780

    TGOHF said:

    Populus/BMG/Opinium/TNS in - not a single Lab lead ?

    Strange how posters are slowly coming to the mindset that EICIPM though.
    Only by limping over the line with both his legs shot off at the moment.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Chameleon said:

    Plato said:

    That's fascinating.

    Scott_P said:

    @stephenkb: The nightmare, now in graph form thanks to @NCPoliticsUK: http://t.co/9p5Ry1HqyT

    Wow. Could that translate to polls underestimating Con by 2 to 7%? That would be fun.
    I think it could be more. What is the odds for a three figure Cameron majority?
    Are you joking. That'd be a shock!
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    edited May 2015
    ICM has just lost it's Gold Standard.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    Scott_P said:

    @stephenkb: The nightmare, now in graph form thanks to @NCPoliticsUK: http://t.co/9p5Ry1HqyT

    What I can't quite get my head around a bit is the why if there is a "shy Tory" factor, why would it be with online polling rather than telephone (which are showing the Tories doing better). Surely if you are a bit ashamed of admitting to wanting to vote Tory it is would be harder to do if somebody rings you up and asks you directly, than clicking a drop down online?
    I think online polls if they get it wrong, it seems to not be getting a balanced sample. There's a fair bit of evidence to suggest this could be the case (eg the proportion who claim to have watched the debates) but we'll see soon enough.

    If the online pollsters are wrong, I really, really hope its not put down to "shy Tory" rather than simply being "wrong". The first rule of polling is to get a balanced sample, if they've failed to do that it isn't because of shy anything but because self-selecting polling hasn't worked for some reason - and that is what needs to be looked at not blaming it on people giving the wrong answers on an online poll.
    Some online pollsters have admitted that their panels are not balanced of the population as a whole but they are balanced as to those who vote . I have my doubts as to this being correct
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,033

    If Cam resigns on Friday morning, #Priti4Leader will be trending by lunchtime!

    Please no. A potential leader in the 2010 intake, but find her utterly uninspiring and the gloss has worn off.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,712
    GIN1138 said:

    That TNS turnout prediction seems very high to me.

    Ben Page from Mori was tweeting that he thinks turnout might reach 70% this time.

    I'm really struggling to see that. I'm finding it hard to find anyone who seems to give two hoots about this election. That's the problem.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    Chameleon said:

    Scott_P said:

    @stephenkb: The nightmare, now in graph form thanks to @NCPoliticsUK: http://t.co/9p5Ry1HqyT

    What I can't quite get my head around a bit is the why if there is a "shy Tory" factor, why would it be with online polling rather than telephone (which are showing the Tories doing better). Surely if you are a bit ashamed of admitting to wanting to vote Tory it is would be harder to do if somebody rings you up and asks you directly, than clicking a drop down online?
    The internet is more left wing. See twitter.
    Not sure twitter is representative of internet users and I don't buy this "the old don't use the interweb" either. My folks are glued to their ipads these days.

    Perhaps it is a sampling issue i.e actively wanting to sign up to YouGov, or perhaps the phone pollsters are just wrong.

    All very interesting, and we will know soon enough.
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371

    TGOHF said:

    Populus/BMG/Opinium/TNS in - not a single Lab lead ?

    Strange how posters are slowly coming to the mindset that EICIPM though.
    Only by limping over the line with both his legs shot off at the moment.
    With Cameron falling short of the line with both his legs wrapped around his head.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,712

    ICM has just lost it's Gold Standard.

    Why?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    edited May 2015

    ICM has just lost it's Gold Standard.

    Now then...has somebody let something slip about themselves...
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,712

    Not long now until the ICM

    How long?
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    :innocent: I was gobsmacked to learn that the lady I was giving evidence against finally exasperated the police that she's been held in custody for 6 weeks for breaching her bail conditions.

    Some people just can't resist having a go.

    Ha, glad to see you managed to walk free from court today Miss Plato..! :lol:

    Plato said:

    I'm telling from 11am - 9pm - I wonder how many disappointed would-be voters I'll trip across...

    Any know how many actually show up and can't vote typically?

    watford30 said:

    In less than 24 hours, thousands of Russell Brand's disciples could be turning up at polling stations, only to discover that they're unable to vote.

  • PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,275
    I do wonder whether there are new and unexplored difficulties in obtaining a truly representative sample given the fragmentation of the electorate. Is a Tory identifier from the Scottish Highlands equivalent to one from Surrey, for example?
  • The BBC’s poundshop Kilroy, Victoria Derbyshire, managed just 39,000 viewers last Thursday, rounded down to zero in the overnight ratings. It has averaged just 73,000 viewers so far.

    Couldn't happen to a nicer person...

    Not seen it - is it one of those terrible BBC voxpop 'debates'?

    The one that occupies the hour between Marr and Brillo on Sundays is terrible.

  • acf2310acf2310 Posts: 141
    Looks like this isn't the final ICM though...
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    What is it about the conservatives that makes the racist homophobe Kerry Smith endorse them?

    The Enquirer (@Enquirernews)
    06/05/2015 15:04
    Parliamentary candidate Kerry Smith urges voters to choose Conservatives: theenquirer.co.uk/parliamentary

    Is that the former UKIP PPC?
    Yes shown the door by our no nonsense rules and regs, now a Tory
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,978
    Reading Martin Boon's tweet, I think the fieldwork for the ICM poll is still continuing
  • blakmorerjblakmorerj Posts: 22

    If Cam resigns on Friday morning, #Priti4Leader will be trending by lunchtime!

    I like Priti Patel, but she is far to socially right wing for me on things like the Death Penalty. I would back Sajiv David instead.
  • acf2310acf2310 Posts: 141
    I suspect that if the polls are very wrong we might see a company try face-to-face polling again. Very expensive, and has its own problems, but would be a interesting third approach.
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    Ooh dear.........has someone got the number for the squirrel Samaritans?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,978
    Oooh err, I don't like the new colour scheme on PB.

    But it pays the bills.
  • blakmorerjblakmorerj Posts: 22
    edited May 2015
    Jim Pickard in FT: "It is now pouring resources into another 20 to 25 “neck and neck” targets. These include Nuneaton, Pudsey, Northampton North, Vale of Glamorgan, Wirral West and Loughborough."

    So Warickshire North, a seat that David Cameron had no right to gain in 2010, and is Labour's Number 1 target in 2015 with a notional majority 54 (0.1%), is "neck and neck". Friday morning could be a blood bath for Ed Miliband.

    http://blogs.ft.com/westminster/2015/05/how-scotland-has-put-a-spanner-in-labours-electoral-arithmetic/?Authorised=false
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Isn't the maj there 54? That looks horrendous for Labour if true. EdM visited there yesterday IIRC.

    Jim Pickard in FT: "It is now pouring resources into another 20 to 25 “neck and neck” targets. These include Nuneaton, Pudsey, Northampton North, Vale of Glamorgan, Wirral West and Loughborough."

    So Warickshire North, a seat that David Cameron had no right to gain in 2010, and is Labour's Number 1 target in 2015, is "neck and neck". Friday morning could be a blood bath for Ed Miliband.

    http://blogs.ft.com/westminster/2015/05/how-scotland-has-put-a-spanner-in-labours-electoral-arithmetic/?Authorised=false

  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474

    ICM has just lost it's Gold Standard.

    Now then...has somebody let something slip about themselves...
    'pouter works for The ...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417

    Jim Pickard in FT: "It is now pouring resources into another 20 to 25 “neck and neck” targets. These include Nuneaton, Pudsey, Northampton North, Vale of Glamorgan, Wirral West and Loughborough."

    So Warickshire North, a seat that David Cameron had no right to gain in 2010, and is Labour's Number 1 target in 2015, is "neck and neck". Friday morning could be a blood bath for Ed Miliband.

    http://blogs.ft.com/westminster/2015/05/how-scotland-has-put-a-spanner-in-labours-electoral-arithmetic/?Authorised=false

    Loughborough ?!

  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264

    GIN1138 said:

    That TNS turnout prediction seems very high to me.

    Ben Page from Mori was tweeting that he thinks turnout might reach 70% this time.

    I'm really struggling to see that. I'm finding it hard to find anyone who seems to give two hoots about this election. That's the problem.
    Interestingly enough I'm finding quite a lot of fired up Tories wanting to keep Miliband out but the (few) Labour voters I know of don't really care and may not vote this time.
    It may be differential turnout that gives Con a lead.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    no ICM until 6pm? boo
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    If Cam resigns on Friday morning, #Priti4Leader will be trending by lunchtime!

    I like Priti Patel, but she is far to socially right wing for me on things like the Death Penalty. I would back Sajiv David instead.
    I think the Tory campaign has suffered through under use of Amjad Bashir #wastedopportunity
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,968
    Mr. Eagles, it's a bit funereal.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wj84tfS7ag4
  • PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,275

    Jim Pickard in FT: "It is now pouring resources into another 20 to 25 “neck and neck” targets. These include Nuneaton, Pudsey, Northampton North, Vale of Glamorgan, Wirral West and Loughborough."

    So Warickshire North, a seat that David Cameron had no right to gain in 2010, and is Labour's Number 1 target in 2015 with a notional majority 54 (0.1%), is "neck and neck". Friday morning could be a blood bath for Ed Miliband.

    http://blogs.ft.com/westminster/2015/05/how-scotland-has-put-a-spanner-in-labours-electoral-arithmetic/?Authorised=false

    Jack's ARSE has Warwickshire North either TCTC or likely CON hold, I think.

  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264

    Oooh err, I don't like the new colour scheme on PB.

    But it pays the bills.

    It is rather awful, but if it keeps the site going then I've got no complaints.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417
    Warks North will be a Labour gain, but narrowly - it has enough wards on the outskirts of Nuneaton to tip the balance as opposed to the slightly more rural areas.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I thought the FT article was most interesting for its observation about Labour's hopes in Scotland:

    "Despite hopes of pro-union tactical voting in Scotland, Labour strategists believe they will keep fewer than 10 seats there even in a best-case scenario. “We would be delighted with eight,” said one."
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780

    Jim Pickard in FT: "It is now pouring resources into another 20 to 25 “neck and neck” targets. These include Nuneaton, Pudsey, Northampton North, Vale of Glamorgan, Wirral West and Loughborough."

    So Warickshire North, a seat that David Cameron had no right to gain in 2010, and is Labour's Number 1 target in 2015 with a notional majority 54 (0.1%), is "neck and neck". Friday morning could be a blood bath for Ed Miliband.

    http://blogs.ft.com/westminster/2015/05/how-scotland-has-put-a-spanner-in-labours-electoral-arithmetic/?Authorised=false

    Werid, all the mood music seems bad for labour, but I can't understand it.
  • acf2310acf2310 Posts: 141
    If the Tories can narrow losses to Lab to 10 or so the idea of Lab on 250 and Con on 310 isn't at all fanciful.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    No.

    @BBCNormanS: Paddy Ashdown says party leaders shd take weekend off after #ge2015 before trying to reach Coalition deal
  • madasafishmadasafish Posts: 659
    chestnut said:

    I'm struck by just how often the esteemed members of this website seem to be called to fill in internet polls. It seems wildly disproportionate to the general population.

    YouGov pay you for online polling..

    I am sure most PB readers are as tight fisted as I am - or worse...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,032

    Jim Pickard in FT: "It is now pouring resources into another 20 to 25 “neck and neck” targets. These include Nuneaton, Pudsey, Northampton North, Vale of Glamorgan, Wirral West and Loughborough."

    So Warickshire North, a seat that David Cameron had no right to gain in 2010, and is Labour's Number 1 target in 2015 with a notional majority 54 (0.1%), is "neck and neck". Friday morning could be a blood bath for Ed Miliband.

    http://blogs.ft.com/westminster/2015/05/how-scotland-has-put-a-spanner-in-labours-electoral-arithmetic/?Authorised=false

    I was laughing about this yesterday when Ed played a visit. It is difficult to know what to conclude from this but the indication must be that Labour's internal figures are far worse than the polls. Pretty much all of those seats should be in the bag by now with resources going elsewhere.

    At this rate Labour may be seriously struggling to make good the 35 losses in Scotland. If they are sub 260 even the SNP can't get them into government.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,968
    Mr. 2310, nice idea, but I'd be greatly surprised if things turned out that nicely for the Conservatives.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,712
    @morris Dancer: LOL! I was just thinking that!!
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Philip Cowley (@philipjcowley)
    06/05/2015 09:26
    Wish we could go back to when newspaper election day front pages weren't so biased and partisan. pic.twitter.com/4zyBOVvmuw
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,712
    Does OGH know something we don't and is mourning the imminent demise of Ed?

    We should be told.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,978
    Errol Brown has died
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    Chameleon said:

    GIN1138 said:

    That TNS turnout prediction seems very high to me.

    Ben Page from Mori was tweeting that he thinks turnout might reach 70% this time.

    I'm really struggling to see that. I'm finding it hard to find anyone who seems to give two hoots about this election. That's the problem.
    Interestingly enough I'm finding quite a lot of fired up Tories wanting to keep Miliband out but the (few) Labour voters I know of don't really care and may not vote this time.
    It may be differential turnout that gives Con a lead.
    My Facebook sort of kicked off today, broadly a three way split. Those who were right-on and involved at university and still really get involved (there's also a strong north-west element to this) - they're posting Bullingdon club posters etc; those that didn't really care at Uni, vaguely Labour but now they've got responsibilities - so they're posting "this is a tough choice, I really like financial stability but I really don't like the thought of voting for a party that ever voted for XXX, but I also really don't like UKIP". This sets off the first lot. They used to be friends.

    Then there's the (typically) mates of mates, from since university. And that's where the fun really begins.

    Policy Obelisk got some jokes, but its been fairly quiet.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417
    edited May 2015
    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/01/warwick-leamington/
    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/03/nuneaton-2/
    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/01/north-warwickshire/

    3 most relevant polls to Warks North.

    Big UKIP vote to squeeze in North Warks + incumbency might be why Con can hold on. I expect Nuneaton to go.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780
    i've got fair bit of money hoping for labour most seats...

    but i would love to lose that money....
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    edited May 2015

    Mr. 2310, nice idea, but I'd be greatly surprised if things turned out that nicely for the Conservatives.

    Well, if it's so bad that they are having to campaign hard in a seat with a 54 vote majority then Labour's data must be very negative indeed.
  • blakmorerjblakmorerj Posts: 22
    edited May 2015
    Pulpstar said:

    Jim Pickard in FT: "It is now pouring resources into another 20 to 25 “neck and neck” targets. These include Nuneaton, Pudsey, Northampton North, Vale of Glamorgan, Wirral West and Loughborough."

    So Warickshire North, a seat that David Cameron had no right to gain in 2010, and is Labour's Number 1 target in 2015, is "neck and neck". Friday morning could be a blood bath for Ed Miliband.

    http://blogs.ft.com/westminster/2015/05/how-scotland-has-put-a-spanner-in-labours-electoral-arithmetic/?Authorised=false

    Loughborough ?!

    Ashcroft poll in April put the Tories on 45% (up 4% on 2010) and Labour on 36% (up 1.5%), with a 12% Ukip share for the Tories to squeeze.

    Either Ashcroft is wrong, or *more likely* in my humble opinion, Labour HQ is getting desperate.

  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited May 2015
    DavidL said:

    Jim Pickard in FT: "It is now pouring resources into another 20 to 25 “neck and neck” targets. These include Nuneaton, Pudsey, Northampton North, Vale of Glamorgan, Wirral West and Loughborough."

    So Warickshire North, a seat that David Cameron had no right to gain in 2010, and is Labour's Number 1 target in 2015 with a notional majority 54 (0.1%), is "neck and neck". Friday morning could be a blood bath for Ed Miliband.

    http://blogs.ft.com/westminster/2015/05/how-scotland-has-put-a-spanner-in-labours-electoral-arithmetic/?Authorised=false

    I was laughing about this yesterday when Ed played a visit. It is difficult to know what to conclude from this but the indication must be that Labour's internal figures are far worse than the polls. Pretty much all of those seats should be in the bag by now with resources going elsewhere.

    At this rate Labour may be seriously struggling to make good the 35 losses in Scotland. If they are sub 260 even the SNP can't get them into government.
    Something is seriously f*cked up about the polling and the reaction of the parties and of the punters. None of it reconciles. Bloody confusing, annoying, and it's going to result in red faces, tarnished reputations and/or empty wallets come Friday.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976

    Errol Brown has died

    RIP you sexy thing..!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,968
    Mr. Chameleon, not long until we see for certain.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,032
    Pulpstar said:

    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/01/warwick-leamington/
    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/03/nuneaton-2/
    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/01/north-warwickshire/

    3 most relevant polls to Warks North.

    Big UKIP vote to squeeze in North Warks + incumbency might be why Con can hold on. I expect Nuneaton to go.

    So they were 11% ahead in July 2014 and its now neck and neck?

    Does Labour know what they are doing or is this another example of them opting out from using grown ups this time around?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,712

    Mr. 2310, nice idea, but I'd be greatly surprised if things turned out that nicely for the Conservatives.

    Yes. Time to calm down. Labour will get 15-18 gains from the Tories, guaranteed.

    The question is whether they can get a further 25 on top of that.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Scott_P said:

    No.

    @BBCNormanS: Paddy Ashdown says party leaders shd take weekend off after #ge2015 before trying to reach Coalition deal

    Ridiculous thing to say. They'll have gamed every outcome by now, and have tentative agreements in place for the most likely. Prolonging the uncertainty is reckless behaviour.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    Jim Pickard in FT: "It is now pouring resources into another 20 to 25 “neck and neck” targets. These include Nuneaton, Pudsey, Northampton North, Vale of Glamorgan, Wirral West and Loughborough."

    So Warickshire North, a seat that David Cameron had no right to gain in 2010, and is Labour's Number 1 target in 2015 with a notional majority 54 (0.1%), is "neck and neck". Friday morning could be a blood bath for Ed Miliband.

    http://blogs.ft.com/westminster/2015/05/how-scotland-has-put-a-spanner-in-labours-electoral-arithmetic/?Authorised=false

    Werid, all the mood music seems bad for labour, but I can't understand it.
    Ed Miliband said he wanted to under-promise and over-deliver in the Question Time last week.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    PeterC said:

    Jim Pickard in FT: "It is now pouring resources into another 20 to 25 “neck and neck” targets. These include Nuneaton, Pudsey, Northampton North, Vale of Glamorgan, Wirral West and Loughborough."

    So Warickshire North, a seat that David Cameron had no right to gain in 2010, and is Labour's Number 1 target in 2015 with a notional majority 54 (0.1%), is "neck and neck". Friday morning could be a blood bath for Ed Miliband.

    http://blogs.ft.com/westminster/2015/05/how-scotland-has-put-a-spanner-in-labours-electoral-arithmetic/?Authorised=false

    Jack's ARSE has Warwickshire North either TCTC or likely CON hold, I think.

    Did his arse come out today or yet to come ?
  • acf2310acf2310 Posts: 141
    Pulpstar said:

    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/01/warwick-leamington/
    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/03/nuneaton-2/
    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/01/north-warwickshire/

    3 most relevant polls to Warks North.

    Big UKIP vote to squeeze in North Warks + incumbency might be why Con can hold on. I expect Nuneaton to go.

    Dan Byles is standing down, no?

  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    edited May 2015
    Pulpstar said:

    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/01/warwick-leamington/
    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/03/nuneaton-2/
    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/01/north-warwickshire/

    3 most relevant polls to Warks North.

    Big UKIP vote to squeeze in North Warks + incumbency might be why Con can hold on. I expect Nuneaton to go.

    Since then there's been a 3% swing back to Con in the phones, assuming that incumbency is worth another percent and a half (or the swingback being more prevalent in the Midlands) and it's not hard to see him hanging on. The UKIP squeeze will be interesting.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,032
    Anorak said:

    DavidL said:

    Jim Pickard in FT: "It is now pouring resources into another 20 to 25 “neck and neck” targets. These include Nuneaton, Pudsey, Northampton North, Vale of Glamorgan, Wirral West and Loughborough."

    So Warickshire North, a seat that David Cameron had no right to gain in 2010, and is Labour's Number 1 target in 2015 with a notional majority 54 (0.1%), is "neck and neck". Friday morning could be a blood bath for Ed Miliband.

    http://blogs.ft.com/westminster/2015/05/how-scotland-has-put-a-spanner-in-labours-electoral-arithmetic/?Authorised=false

    I was laughing about this yesterday when Ed played a visit. It is difficult to know what to conclude from this but the indication must be that Labour's internal figures are far worse than the polls. Pretty much all of those seats should be in the bag by now with resources going elsewhere.

    At this rate Labour may be seriously struggling to make good the 35 losses in Scotland. If they are sub 260 even the SNP can't get them into government.
    Something is seriously f*cked up about the polling and the reaction of the parties and of the punters. None of it reconciles. Bloody confusing, annoying, and it's going to result in red faces, tarnished reputations and/or empty wallets come Friday.
    Probably not for the bookies though!
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    Errol Brown has died

    RIP you sexy thing..!
    Believing in miracles obviously does not make them happen.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited May 2015
    DavidL said:

    Anorak said:

    DavidL said:

    Jim Pickard in FT: "It is now pouring resources into another 20 to 25 “neck and neck” targets. These include Nuneaton, Pudsey, Northampton North, Vale of Glamorgan, Wirral West and Loughborough."

    So Warickshire North, a seat that David Cameron had no right to gain in 2010, and is Labour's Number 1 target in 2015 with a notional majority 54 (0.1%), is "neck and neck". Friday morning could be a blood bath for Ed Miliband.

    http://blogs.ft.com/westminster/2015/05/how-scotland-has-put-a-spanner-in-labours-electoral-arithmetic/?Authorised=false

    I was laughing about this yesterday when Ed played a visit. It is difficult to know what to conclude from this but the indication must be that Labour's internal figures are far worse than the polls. Pretty much all of those seats should be in the bag by now with resources going elsewhere.

    At this rate Labour may be seriously struggling to make good the 35 losses in Scotland. If they are sub 260 even the SNP can't get them into government.
    Something is seriously f*cked up about the polling and the reaction of the parties and of the punters. None of it reconciles. Bloody confusing, annoying, and it's going to result in red faces, tarnished reputations and/or empty wallets come Friday.
    Probably not for the bookies though!
    It rarely ever does :(

    Shadsy must have put a deposit down on a Porsche by now.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672

    Jim Pickard in FT: "It is now pouring resources into another 20 to 25 “neck and neck” targets. These include Nuneaton, Pudsey, Northampton North, Vale of Glamorgan, Wirral West and Loughborough."

    So Warickshire North, a seat that David Cameron had no right to gain in 2010, and is Labour's Number 1 target in 2015 with a notional majority 54 (0.1%), is "neck and neck". Friday morning could be a blood bath for Ed Miliband.

    http://blogs.ft.com/westminster/2015/05/how-scotland-has-put-a-spanner-in-labours-electoral-arithmetic/?Authorised=false

    Werid, all the mood music seems bad for labour, but I can't understand it.

    The Midlands is going to be horrible for Labour.

    However, I am slightly puzzled as to why Labour is providing all this information. It does not make sense for them to do it.

  • booksellerbookseller Posts: 508
    Anorak said:

    DavidL said:

    Jim Pickard in FT: "It is now pouring resources into another 20 to 25 “neck and neck” targets. These include Nuneaton, Pudsey, Northampton North, Vale of Glamorgan, Wirral West and Loughborough."

    So Warickshire North, a seat that David Cameron had no right to gain in 2010, and is Labour's Number 1 target in 2015 with a notional majority 54 (0.1%), is "neck and neck". Friday morning could be a blood bath for Ed Miliband.

    http://blogs.ft.com/westminster/2015/05/how-scotland-has-put-a-spanner-in-labours-electoral-arithmetic/?Authorised=false

    I was laughing about this yesterday when Ed played a visit. It is difficult to know what to conclude from this but the indication must be that Labour's internal figures are far worse than the polls. Pretty much all of those seats should be in the bag by now with resources going elsewhere.

    At this rate Labour may be seriously struggling to make good the 35 losses in Scotland. If they are sub 260 even the SNP can't get them into government.
    Something is seriously f*cked up about the polling and the reaction of the parties and of the punters. None of it reconciles. Bloody confusing, annoying, and it's going to result in red faces, tarnished reputations and/or empty wallets come Friday.
    How about if the "shy Kippers" were actually taking a bigger chunk of votes from Labour rather than Tory?
This discussion has been closed.