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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » GE2015 Day Minus 1 – the latest polling/betting round-up

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    rcs1000

    I humbly beg to differ that Nicola Sturgeon has the best interests of the UK at heart! Unless I have completely missed the point, I contend that her party exists expressly to destroy the UK.

    (or that Clegg earnestly desires to see the UK subsumed within a European superstate).
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,288

    Good afternoon.

    Interesting to see Cable on manoeuvres, arguing strongly against a 2017 EU referendum (and hence, implicitly, against a Con/LD coalition).

    Thought for the day:

    Would the LibDems be won round to a 2017 referendum if the EU were not the only question on the ballot paper? One question for the right of the coalition ("Do you want to leave the EU?") and one for the left?

    STV on the same ballot paper?

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    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    who where on labourdoorstep today - part I

    Balls: Stevenage
    Cooper: Bradford West
    Khan: Ilford North
    Umunna: Enfield North
    Burnham: Crewe
    Ival Lewis: Harlow
    Angela Eagle: Wirral West
    Berger: Harlow
    Lammy: Hampstead
    Owen Smith: Aberconwy, Clwyd West, Ynys Mon
    Swanea East candidate: Carms West & South Pembrokeshire
    Trickett: Elmet & Rothwel
    Winterton: Elmet/Rothwell


    General Secretary: Manchester Whitington, Bury North, Rossendale
    Rhodri Morgan: Cardiff North
    McCluskey: South Ribble,
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    Still nothing further as regards tomorrow night's would-be bunfight at the Finborough Arms and there's nothing on the pub's website either, so I'm assuming it's all died a death .... pity really as it could have been fun, particularly during the early hours of Friday.
    I shall keep Her Indoors entertained instead.

    Hope it is a laugh as I paid for my ticket last night.

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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,987
    rcs1000 said:

    SeanT said:

    Yep, them too. Our politics has become coarser and nastier, tinged with race-baiting, race hatred and ugly Nationalism. It's not pretty.

    I reckon it began with Labour demonising Tories - baby eaters. That brought the discourse of hatred into British politics. And now it has spread. If you dehumanise the enemy it is OK to abuse him, or even assault him, as Hitler knew well.

    The vast majority of politicians - in the UK at least - are hard working and genuinely care about the future of this country.

    Ed Miliband genuinely believes that what he does will be best for the people of the UK.
    David Cameron, Nigel Farage, Nick Clegg, Nicola Sturgeon, etc. etc.: all believe passionately in improving people's lives.

    The only disagreement is on the exact vision of Jerusalem, and how we get there.

    When we demonise and doubt the sincerity of people's convictions, we drag discourse down, and we drag politics down, and we drag Britain down.

    We are incredibly lucky to live in the UK, where the worst political corruption has been caused by (now discovered) politcal correctness and the worst theft by a political was a duck house claimed on expenses. Far better to be here than in Russia where it is alleged that Putin has amassed a $200bn fortune off the back of his countrymen. And how lucky are we to have a press that reveals our leaders foibles.

    The UK is one of the - if not the - greatest country in the world, and we should celebrate that and recognise that.

    Hmmm - calling Labour supporters feckless scroungers who hate Britain and would sell us down the river at any opportunity is pretty dehumanising. It's been a common staple of right wing discourse for as long as I can remember. See the right wing press, for example. All sides do it and always have. I agree it is pretty shite. We have a confrontational system thanks to FPTP.



  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,044

    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Speaking of monkeys and blue rosettes:

    Christchurch still 1-10 for the Cons. #Betterthanabank

    Surely that should be 1/100 the day before the election?
    Anyone know of any reason not to put one's mortgage on it?
    1993
    I'd have thought Christchurch 1993 might be better anecdotal evidence for not sticking the bank on Carswell this time round actually.
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    valleyboyvalleyboy Posts: 605
    Canvassing last 24Hrs people are at last making up their minds.
    All down to the GOTV now.
    Can't stop, back on the doorstep this afternoon.
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    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,739

    SeanT said:

    watford30 said:

    SeanT said:

    "“Get out, you fucking Jew,” he shouts. I am being throttled as around ten Asian men surround me." The UK elex, 2015.

    http://www.politico.eu/article/galloway-bradford-elections-uk-ge2015/

    From Nats brownshirting around Glasgow to lefties writing "Tory Whore" on Tory cars to the anti-Semitic thuggery of Respect, something quite sad has happened to UK politics, and its happened quite suddenly.

    You neglected to mention the Kipper who wants to 'put a bullet between the eyes' of his opponent.
    Yep, them too. Our politics has become coarser and nastier, tinged with race-baiting, race hatred and ugly Nationalism. It's not pretty.

    I reckon it began with Labour demonising Tories - baby eaters. That brought the discourse of hatred into British politics. And now it has spread. If you dehumanise the enemy it is OK to abuse him, or even assault him, as Hitler knew well.
    It wasn't the bullet comment that I found the most worrying.

    Questioning Mr Jayawardena's background, he said: ''His family have only been here since the 70s. You are not British enough to be in our parliament.

    ''I've got 400 years of ancestry where I live. He hasn't got that.''

    And he told the investigators of the safe seat: ''But I've always said in my constituency you could put a monkey out there with a blue rosette on and it would win.''
    I watched it all the way through and I still think the bullet between the eyes was the worst bit - could it be illegal?
    UKIP mask slips on yet another candidate.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-england-32595003
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,288
    Patrick said:

    rcs1000

    I humbly beg to differ that Nicola Sturgeon has the best interests of the UK at heart! Unless I have completely missed the point, I contend that her party exists expressly to destroy the UK.

    (or that Clegg earnestly desires to see the UK subsumed within a European superstate).

    OK: Nicola Surgeon is thinking of Scotland first :-)

    Re Clegg: I think he genuinely believes the choice is between Britain becoming the California of a United States of Europe rather than being Cuba off the edge. (Warning: dodgy analogy.) Whether he is right or not is another matter, but I do not doubt that he sincerely believes it is in the best interests of the British people.
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    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited May 2015

    SeanT said:

    watford30 said:

    SeanT said:

    "“Get out, you fucking Jew,” he shouts. I am being throttled as around ten Asian men surround me." The UK elex, 2015.

    http://www.politico.eu/article/galloway-bradford-elections-uk-ge2015/

    From Nats brownshirting around Glasgow to lefties writing "Tory Whore" on Tory cars to the anti-Semitic thuggery of Respect, something quite sad has happened to UK politics, and its happened quite suddenly.

    You neglected to mention the Kipper who wants to 'put a bullet between the eyes' of his opponent.
    Yep, them too. Our politics has become coarser and nastier, tinged with race-baiting, race hatred and ugly Nationalism. It's not pretty.

    I reckon it began with Labour demonising Tories - baby eaters. That brought the discourse of hatred into British politics. And now it has spread. If you dehumanise the enemy it is OK to abuse him, or even assault him, as Hitler knew well.
    It wasn't the bullet comment that I found the most worrying.

    Questioning Mr Jayawardena's background, he said: ''His family have only been here since the 70s. You are not British enough to be in our parliament.

    ''I've got 400 years of ancestry where I live. He hasn't got that.''

    And he told the investigators of the safe seat: ''But I've always said in my constituency you could put a monkey out there with a blue rosette on and it would win.''
    Ye, I agree they were the worst of his comments, though I don't know how UKIP could have vetted for things like that. People know how to pass tests by saying the right things, and when something grows too quickly, wronguns will slip through the net
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,796
    Artist said:

    The DUP are full of common sense and great political judgement.

    Ed Miliband has 'zero economic common sense'' for defending New Labour spending, says Peter Robinson.

    DUP leader and possible coalition kingmaker in warning over Ed Miliband's reliance on SNP and economic judgment

    http://bit.ly/1cm7g4c

    Peter Robinson, Nigel Dodds and Ian Paisley Junior all say different things.
    "Never", "Never" and "Never"?
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    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    rcs1000 said:

    SeanT said:

    Yep, them too. Our politics has become coarser and nastier, tinged with race-baiting, race hatred and ugly Nationalism. It's not pretty.

    I reckon it began with Labour demonising Tories - baby eaters. That brought the discourse of hatred into British politics. And now it has spread. If you dehumanise the enemy it is OK to abuse him, or even assault him, as Hitler knew well.

    The vast majority of politicians - in the UK at least - are hard working and genuinely care about the future of this country.

    Ed Miliband genuinely believes that what he does will be best for the people of the UK.
    David Cameron, Nigel Farage, Nick Clegg, Nicola Sturgeon, etc. etc.: all believe passionately in improving people's lives.

    The only disagreement is on the exact vision of Jerusalem, and how we get there.

    When we demonise and doubt the sincerity of people's convictions, we drag discourse down, and we drag politics down, and we drag Britain down.

    We are incredibly lucky to live in the UK, where the worst political corruption has been caused by (now discovered) politcal correctness and the worst theft by a political was a duck house claimed on expenses. Far better to be here than in Russia where it is alleged that Putin has amassed a $200bn fortune off the back of his countrymen. And how lucky are we to have a press that reveals our leaders foibles.

    The UK is one of the - if not the - greatest country in the world, and we should celebrate that and recognise that.
    A fine post.

    [Also, what does Putin want with all that money? He's effectively the dictator of a hugely powerful nation! Umm. Actually, it's probably a war-chest to buy support to remain dictator for as long as he wants.]
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,071

    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Speaking of monkeys and blue rosettes:

    Christchurch still 1-10 for the Cons. #Betterthanabank

    Surely that should be 1/100 the day before the election?
    Anyone know of any reason not to put one's mortgage on it?
    1993
    Ah, knew I remembered the name from somewhere. Can't see the LDs getting a mahoosive swing this week though.

    Chris Chope got 56% in 2010 for a 15,000 majority, the bet is huge value at 1/10 unless there's some weird local story going on.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Daniel said:

    One issue surprisingly not discussed much is a Scottish landslide effects on independence polling.

    If the SNP tomorrow records seat gains akin to Sinn Fein in 1918 then I think momentum could propel the polls to showing 55%+ for independence. Once that happens expect it to be the issue in Holyrood 2016.

    FFA is the only method left to halt independence; as one Labour MP put it to me - give 'em control of the books and watch them screw it up.

    Under FFA, SNP can no longer blame Westminster for their fiscal problems. The buck stops with Holyrood. But, would Labour be prepared to devolve it?
    I think FFA is about as plausibly likely to halt independence as "devolution will kill nationalism stone dead".

    Another question for those who know, could this be the first election where the government has no Scottish MPs? Make an interesting question as to who would be Scottish Secretary in the new cabinet.
    Carmichael or ... Murphy.

    Jo Swinson
    I've laid Jo, but have rebacked her too. Have you laid or backed Jo ?
    I've been backing the Lib Dems in some of their Scottish held seats.
    Brave
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    calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    Chris Deerin has a good summary of the Scottish pundits views, the "experts" seem to be netting out that the SNP will only win mid - 40s:

    https://medium.com/@cstreetpartners/place-your-bets-3603e6dac7a4
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Anecdote Alert.

    Just finished giving witness evidence and got talking in the Witness Room with a few others waiting to be called.

    One hates the SNP and the Greenies [You know their leader was forced to leave Aus don't you!!!]. She comes from Aberdeen and implored her son to vote. I think she's voting Tory in Eastbourne. She'll tell her son to vote Tory too I suspect.

    Son didn't know who to vote for and didn't plan on bothering - but will be told to do so by his mum.

    Politically interested ex-Labour voter doesn't know who to choose - AnyButTory is likely and asked me about who was the closest likely to win here - LibDem. He thinks PR is a *good thing* and missed EdStone completely.

    A most interesting little diversion waiting for the wheels of justice to grind forward.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,118

    rcs1000 said:

    SeanT said:

    Yep, them too. Our politics has become coarser and nastier, tinged with race-baiting, race hatred and ugly Nationalism. It's not pretty.

    I reckon it began with Labour demonising Tories - baby eaters. That brought the discourse of hatred into British politics. And now it has spread. If you dehumanise the enemy it is OK to abuse him, or even assault him, as Hitler knew well.

    The vast majority of politicians - in the UK at least - are hard working and genuinely care about the future of this country.

    Ed Miliband genuinely believes that what he does will be best for the people of the UK.
    David Cameron, Nigel Farage, Nick Clegg, Nicola Sturgeon, etc. etc.: all believe passionately in improving people's lives.

    The only disagreement is on the exact vision of Jerusalem, and how we get there.

    When we demonise and doubt the sincerity of people's convictions, we drag discourse down, and we drag politics down, and we drag Britain down.

    We are incredibly lucky to live in the UK, where the worst political corruption has been caused by (now discovered) politcal correctness and the worst theft by a political was a duck house claimed on expenses. Far better to be here than in Russia where it is alleged that Putin has amassed a $200bn fortune off the back of his countrymen. And how lucky are we to have a press that reveals our leaders foibles.

    The UK is one of the - if not the - greatest country in the world, and we should celebrate that and recognise that.

    Hmmm - calling Labour supporters feckless scroungers who hate Britain and would sell us down the river at any opportunity is pretty dehumanising. It's been a common staple of right wing discourse for as long as I can remember. See the right wing press, for example. All sides do it and always have. I agree it is pretty shite. We have a confrontational system thanks to FPTP.

    Its the same for all sides.. UKIP supporter = racist = fair game

  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,044
    edited May 2015
    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Daniel said:

    One issue surprisingly not discussed much is a Scottish landslide effects on independence polling.

    If the SNP tomorrow records seat gains akin to Sinn Fein in 1918 then I think momentum could propel the polls to showing 55%+ for independence. Once that happens expect it to be the issue in Holyrood 2016.

    FFA is the only method left to halt independence; as one Labour MP put it to me - give 'em control of the books and watch them screw it up.

    Under FFA, SNP can no longer blame Westminster for their fiscal problems. The buck stops with Holyrood. But, would Labour be prepared to devolve it?
    I think FFA is about as plausibly likely to halt independence as "devolution will kill nationalism stone dead".

    Another question for those who know, could this be the first election where the government has no Scottish MPs? Make an interesting question as to who would be Scottish Secretary in the new cabinet.
    Carmichael or ... Murphy.

    Jo Swinson
    I've laid Jo, but have rebacked her too. Have you laid or backed Jo ?
    I've been backing the Lib Dems in some of their Scottish held seats.
    Brave
    5-2 Swinson; 3-1 Kennedy are both too short right now.

    9-2 Thurso is the value for a Lib Dem bet.

    None of them for me, mind.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Seen what else has been done to Charlotte Leslie?

    Appalling.
    Vandals targeted a Conservative MP days before the election by deliberately flooding her garden with 1,300 litres of sticky oil.

    Charlotte Leslie has written about her shock at finding that vandals had punctured the oil tank in her garden, causing her parents' entire heating supply for the year to seep into the ground.

    A post on an anarchist blog signed by 'Thatcher's children' has claimed responsibility for the attack, blaming the government's policies and hinting that they may strike again.

    Last week cars belonging to Ms Leslie and her elderly father Ian, 70, were daubed with paint and the words 'Tory Scum' were scrawled along the bodywork.

    But now it has emerged that they also drilled a hole in the outdoor domestic fuel tank, allowing a year's supply of oil worth £500 to drain into the soil, and causing huge environmental damage.

    It did not reach the mains water pipes but the contamination means the entire garden and nearby fields will have to be dug up to stop it spreading.

    It is thought the damage happened at the same time as the family's cars were vandalised at Mr Leslie's South Gloucestershire home last Friday.
    SeanT said:

    "“Get out, you fucking Jew,” he shouts. I am being throttled as around ten Asian men surround me." The UK elex, 2015.

    http://www.politico.eu/article/galloway-bradford-elections-uk-ge2015/

    From Nats brownshirting around Glasgow to lefties writing "Tory Whore" on Tory cars to the anti-Semitic thuggery of Respect, something quite sad has happened to UK politics, and its happened quite suddenly.

  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    rcs1000 said:

    Gus O’Donnell on Daily Politics:

    'He confirmed that, if a second election ends up being held in November, the Fixed-term Parliaments Act means all future general elections would be held in November. Because of the weather, this would be very bad news for campaigners.'


    Cant we repeal this bloody awful law!

    I think we should institute "The Random Term Parliaments Act (2015)". Every day there would be a 1-in-1,500 chance of parliament being dissolved for an election 28 days hence.

    Alternatively, we could do it on a seat-by-seat basis, with two (randomly selected) by-elections every week.

    It would allow for many more betting opportunities.
    There's be a 40% chance of an election within 2 years,
  • Options
    DanielDaniel Posts: 160
    You know, a super hung parliament might benefit our politics. For once, all the parties will have no choice but to work together - if none of them want to face a second election.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    calum said:

    Chris Deerin has a good summary of the Scottish pundits views, the "experts" seem to be netting out that the SNP will only win mid - 40s:

    https://medium.com/@cstreetpartners/place-your-bets-3603e6dac7a4

    Summary: Scottish pundits ignore the opinion polls.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,629
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    I wish I had a postal vote now!

    Tomorrow, somehow I have to leave Coventry to get to London Euston, get the Tube to Gants Hill, vote, get the Tube back from Gants Hill to Euston, then get to Birmingham (where I'm staying this week). Complicating things is a one hour meeting at work at 2.45!

    I'll probably leave after my meeting :)

    Speaking of postal ballots, after my initial despair at the USPS, it seems my ballot may arrive in time after all.
    That's great news! Which constituency?
    Swindon South.
    I've been on the Great Western Railway route through Swindon on my to Bristol a couple of years ago :)
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Alistair said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Gus O’Donnell on Daily Politics:

    'He confirmed that, if a second election ends up being held in November, the Fixed-term Parliaments Act means all future general elections would be held in November. Because of the weather, this would be very bad news for campaigners.'


    Cant we repeal this bloody awful law!

    I think we should institute "The Random Term Parliaments Act (2015)". Every day there would be a 1-in-1,500 chance of parliament being dissolved for an election 28 days hence.

    Alternatively, we could do it on a seat-by-seat basis, with two (randomly selected) by-elections every week.

    It would allow for many more betting opportunities.
    There's be a 40% chance of an election within 2 years,
    And only 70% chance of an election after 5 years.
  • Options
    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    isam said:

    rcs1000 said:

    SeanT said:

    Yep, them too. Our politics has become coarser and nastier, tinged with race-baiting, race hatred and ugly Nationalism. It's not pretty.

    I reckon it began with Labour demonising Tories - baby eaters. That brought the discourse of hatred into British politics. And now it has spread. If you dehumanise the enemy it is OK to abuse him, or even assault him, as Hitler knew well.

    The vast majority of politicians - in the UK at least - are hard working and genuinely care about the future of this country.

    Ed Miliband genuinely believes that what he does will be best for the people of the UK.
    David Cameron, Nigel Farage, Nick Clegg, Nicola Sturgeon, etc. etc.: all believe passionately in improving people's lives.

    The only disagreement is on the exact vision of Jerusalem, and how we get there.

    When we demonise and doubt the sincerity of people's convictions, we drag discourse down, and we drag politics down, and we drag Britain down.

    We are incredibly lucky to live in the UK, where the worst political corruption has been caused by (now discovered) politcal correctness and the worst theft by a political was a duck house claimed on expenses. Far better to be here than in Russia where it is alleged that Putin has amassed a $200bn fortune off the back of his countrymen. And how lucky are we to have a press that reveals our leaders foibles.

    The UK is one of the - if not the - greatest country in the world, and we should celebrate that and recognise that.

    Hmmm - calling Labour supporters feckless scroungers who hate Britain and would sell us down the river at any opportunity is pretty dehumanising. It's been a common staple of right wing discourse for as long as I can remember. See the right wing press, for example. All sides do it and always have. I agree it is pretty shite. We have a confrontational system thanks to FPTP.

    Its the same for all sides.. UKIP supporter = racist = fair game
    Would "UKIP supporter = Supporter of racists" be fairer?
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,029
    Plato said:

    Seen what else has been done to Charlotte Leslie?

    Appalling.

    Vandals targeted a Conservative MP days before the election by deliberately flooding her garden with 1,300 litres of sticky oil.

    Charlotte Leslie has written about her shock at finding that vandals had punctured the oil tank in her garden, causing her parents' entire heating supply for the year to seep into the ground.

    A post on an anarchist blog signed by 'Thatcher's children' has claimed responsibility for the attack, blaming the government's policies and hinting that they may strike again.

    Last week cars belonging to Ms Leslie and her elderly father Ian, 70, were daubed with paint and the words 'Tory Scum' were scrawled along the bodywork.

    But now it has emerged that they also drilled a hole in the outdoor domestic fuel tank, allowing a year's supply of oil worth £500 to drain into the soil, and causing huge environmental damage.

    It did not reach the mains water pipes but the contamination means the entire garden and nearby fields will have to be dug up to stop it spreading.

    It is thought the damage happened at the same time as the family's cars were vandalised at Mr Leslie's South Gloucestershire home last Friday.
    SeanT said:

    "“Get out, you fucking Jew,” he shouts. I am being throttled as around ten Asian men surround me." The UK elex, 2015.

    http://www.politico.eu/article/galloway-bradford-elections-uk-ge2015/

    From Nats brownshirting around Glasgow to lefties writing "Tory Whore" on Tory cars to the anti-Semitic thuggery of Respect, something quite sad has happened to UK politics, and its happened quite suddenly.



    I was just about to comment on this. Deeply saddening. She seems like a pretty good egg.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Daniel said:

    You know, a super hung parliament might benefit our politics. For once, all the parties will have no choice but to work together - if none of them want to face a second election.

    I'm hoping for a Parliament where the government can do next to nothing. Both main parties have put forward either very silly or actively destructive policies, so it would be better for the country if the next government was unable to implement any of them.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,821
    rcs1000 said:

    SeanT said:

    Yep, them too. Our politics has become coarser and nastier, tinged with race-baiting, race hatred and ugly Nationalism. It's not pretty.

    I reckon it began with Labour demonising Tories - baby eaters. That brought the discourse of hatred into British politics. And now it has spread. If you dehumanise the enemy it is OK to abuse him, or even assault him, as Hitler knew well.

    The vast majority of politicians - in the UK at least - are hard working and genuinely care about the future of this country.

    Ed Miliband genuinely believes that what he does will be best for the people of the UK.
    David Cameron, Nigel Farage, Nick Clegg, Nicola Sturgeon, etc. etc.: all believe passionately in improving people's lives.

    The only disagreement is on the exact vision of Jerusalem, and how we get there.

    When we demonise and doubt the sincerity of people's convictions, we drag discourse down, and we drag politics down, and we drag Britain down.

    We are incredibly lucky to live in the UK, where the worst political corruption has been caused by (now discovered) politcal correctness and the worst theft by a political was a duck house claimed on expenses. Far better to be here than in Russia where it is alleged that Putin has amassed a $200bn fortune off the back of his countrymen. And how lucky are we to have a press that reveals our leaders foibles.

    The UK is one of the - if not the - greatest country in the world, and we should celebrate that and recognise that.
    Ahem, Robert. An exceptional post.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    rcs1000 said:

    SeanT said:

    Yep, them too. Our politics has become coarser and nastier, tinged with race-baiting, race hatred and ugly Nationalism. It's not pretty.

    I reckon it began with Labour demonising Tories - baby eaters. That brought the discourse of hatred into British politics. And now it has spread. If you dehumanise the enemy it is OK to abuse him, or even assault him, as Hitler knew well.

    The vast majority of politicians - in the UK at least - are hard working and genuinely care about the future of this country.

    Ed Miliband genuinely believes that what he does will be best for the people of the UK.
    David Cameron, Nigel Farage, Nick Clegg, Nicola Sturgeon, etc. etc.: all believe passionately in improving people's lives.

    The only disagreement is on the exact vision of Jerusalem, and how we get there.

    When we demonise and doubt the sincerity of people's convictions, we drag discourse down, and we drag politics down, and we drag Britain down.

    We are incredibly lucky to live in the UK, where the worst political corruption has been caused by (now discovered) politcal correctness and the worst theft by a political was a duck house claimed on expenses. Far better to be here than in Russia where it is alleged that Putin has amassed a $200bn fortune off the back of his countrymen. And how lucky are we to have a press that reveals our leaders foibles.

    The UK is one of the - if not the - greatest country in the world, and we should celebrate that and recognise that.

    Hmmm - calling Labour supporters feckless scroungers who hate Britain and would sell us down the river at any opportunity is pretty dehumanising. It's been a common staple of right wing discourse for as long as I can remember. See the right wing press, for example. All sides do it and always have. I agree it is pretty shite. We have a confrontational system thanks to FPTP.



    Oh come off it! We have a confrontational system thanks to democracy, not FPTP.

    Do you think that confrontational politics surrounding the likes of Geert Wilders or the late Pim Fortuyn and his assassination were caused by Dutch FPTP?
  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 12,932
    JGC said:


    Both West Ham & East Ham labour parties have been campaigning in Newham (there was even a joint street stall on Green St on Saturday) but I dont think it is any great secret that most efforts have been aimed elsewhere - a little digging on twitter will reveal where. I personally think it is not a good thing that the voters of Newham or Kensington & Chelsea are pretty much ignored at election time whilst those in Ilford or Southwark are deluged with leaflets and door knocking but that is the inevitable result of the current system.

    From my observations around various London marginals (backed by the polls) is that labour will end up with between 46 and 49 seats in London, I cant see the LDs loosing either Sutton or Carshalton and will take your word for it that they will hang on in Kingston despite the polls

    Thanks for your response. I was referring to street canvassing and leafleting at tube stations though I would imagine they will be out in force tomorrow. There are activists who can't or won't travel far and a stall isn't a bad way to get them involved particularly at somewhere as well known as Green Street market on a Saturday.

    As far as London is concerned, in 2001 Labour won 55 seats and the Conservatives 13 on a vote share of LAB 47% and CON 30.5%. Now, we're not far from those numbers at present so I may have undercooked Labour on my projection - a split of LAB 49 and CON 21 wouldn't be inconceivable but the CON majorities in the seats held by Labour in 2001 but lost in 2005 look too large (even with LD disintegration) to be re-captured.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,044
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Speaking of monkeys and blue rosettes:

    Christchurch still 1-10 for the Cons. #Betterthanabank

    Surely that should be 1/100 the day before the election?
    Anyone know of any reason not to put one's mortgage on it?
    1993
    Ah, knew I remembered the name from somewhere. Can't see the LDs getting a mahoosive swing this week though.

    Chris Chope got 56% in 2010 for a 15,000 majority, the bet is huge value at 1/10 unless there's some weird local story going on.
    UKIP did well there in the Euros, but UKIP did well in alot of places in the Euros.
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    Bond_James_BondBond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939
    I'm looking forward to the "Did you stay up for Farage?" moments on Friday morning.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,071
    Plato said:

    Seen what else has been done to Charlotte Leslie?

    Appalling.

    Vandals targeted a Conservative MP days before the election by deliberately flooding her garden with 1,300 litres of sticky oil.

    Charlotte Leslie has written about her shock at finding that vandals had punctured the oil tank in her garden, causing her parents' entire heating supply for the year to seep into the ground.

    A post on an anarchist blog signed by 'Thatcher's children' has claimed responsibility for the attack, blaming the government's policies and hinting that they may strike again.

    Last week cars belonging to Ms Leslie and her elderly father Ian, 70, were daubed with paint and the words 'Tory Scum' were scrawled along the bodywork.

    But now it has emerged that they also drilled a hole in the outdoor domestic fuel tank, allowing a year's supply of oil worth £500 to drain into the soil, and causing huge environmental damage.

    It did not reach the mains water pipes but the contamination means the entire garden and nearby fields will have to be dug up to stop it spreading.

    It is thought the damage happened at the same time as the family's cars were vandalised at Mr Leslie's South Gloucestershire home last Friday.
    SeanT said:

    "“Get out, you fucking Jew,” he shouts. I am being throttled as around ten Asian men surround me." The UK elex, 2015.

    http://www.politico.eu/article/galloway-bradford-elections-uk-ge2015/

    From Nats brownshirting around Glasgow to lefties writing "Tory Whore" on Tory cars to the anti-Semitic thuggery of Respect, something quite sad has happened to UK politics, and its happened quite suddenly.


    That's such a horrible story. There's a definite change in recent years towards more aggressive language in politics, I think this rubs off on some of the less intelligent supporters on all sides.

    The DT this morning had an interview with Esther McVey, she has also been subject to vandalism, graffiti and even some casual sexism from John Prescott.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11584479/Esther-McVey-The-girls-leafleting-for-me-must-be-thinking-Would-I-want-this-abuse.html
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,902
    edited May 2015
    Plato said:

    Seen what else has been done to Charlotte Leslie?

    Appalling.

    Vandals targeted a Conservative MP days before the election by deliberately flooding her garden with 1,300 litres of sticky oil.

    Charlotte Leslie has written about her shock at finding that vandals had punctured the oil tank in her garden, causing her parents' entire heating supply for the year to seep into the ground.

    A post on an anarchist blog signed by 'Thatcher's children' has claimed responsibility for the attack, blaming the government's policies and hinting that they may strike again.

    Last week cars belonging to Ms Leslie and her elderly father Ian, 70, were daubed with paint and the words 'Tory Scum' were scrawled along the bodywork.

    But now it has emerged that they also drilled a hole in the outdoor domestic fuel tank, allowing a year's supply of oil worth £500 to drain into the soil, and causing huge environmental damage.

    It did not reach the mains water pipes but the contamination means the entire garden and nearby fields will have to be dug up to stop it spreading.

    It is thought the damage happened at the same time as the family's cars were vandalised at Mr Leslie's South Gloucestershire home last Friday.
    SeanT said:

    "“Get out, you fucking Jew,” he shouts. I am being throttled as around ten Asian men surround me." The UK elex, 2015.

    http://www.politico.eu/article/galloway-bradford-elections-uk-ge2015/

    From Nats brownshirting around Glasgow to lefties writing "Tory Whore" on Tory cars to the anti-Semitic thuggery of Respect, something quite sad has happened to UK politics, and its happened quite suddenly.



    There's few things worse than trying to hobble political freedom, if they catch them it should be life in prison (ironically enough it would also take away their vote).
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,821
    antifrank said:

    Daniel said:

    You know, a super hung parliament might benefit our politics. For once, all the parties will have no choice but to work together - if none of them want to face a second election.

    I'm hoping for a Parliament where the government can do next to nothing. Both main parties have put forward either very silly or actively destructive policies, so it would be better for the country if the next government was unable to implement any of them.
    That works both ways though - the next Parliament could fritter money away left, right and centre trying to maintain political favour and adopt weak responses to 'events'.
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    Any bets / views / data on turnout? I think we're going to see a high turnout, surprisingly so. What is the PB commentariat's view?
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,044

    I'm looking forward to the "Did you stay up for Farage?" moments on Friday morning.

    I plan to see Farage get in by around 5%.
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    El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,905
    rcs1000 said:

    Good afternoon.

    Interesting to see Cable on manoeuvres, arguing strongly against a 2017 EU referendum (and hence, implicitly, against a Con/LD coalition).

    Thought for the day:

    Would the LibDems be won round to a 2017 referendum if the EU were not the only question on the ballot paper? One question for the right of the coalition ("Do you want to leave the EU?") and one for the left?

    STV on the same ballot paper?

    Exactly.

    And I suspect Cameron would like it as a way of confusing the Out campaign.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    SeanT said:

    watford30 said:

    SeanT said:

    "“Get out, you fucking Jew,” he shouts. I am being throttled as around ten Asian men surround me." The UK elex, 2015.

    http://www.politico.eu/article/galloway-bradford-elections-uk-ge2015/

    From Nats brownshirting around Glasgow to lefties writing "Tory Whore" on Tory cars to the anti-Semitic thuggery of Respect, something quite sad has happened to UK politics, and its happened quite suddenly.

    You neglected to mention the Kipper who wants to 'put a bullet between the eyes' of his opponent.
    Yep, them too. Our politics has become coarser and nastier, tinged with race-baiting, race hatred and ugly Nationalism. It's not pretty.
    Has become? Rose tinted spectacles on the past much?

    I wonder if any party has mentioned in the past the ethnicity or colour of potential neighbours and what you should consider in terms of your voting intentions.

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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,044
    antifrank said:

    Daniel said:

    You know, a super hung parliament might benefit our politics. For once, all the parties will have no choice but to work together - if none of them want to face a second election.

    I'm hoping for a Parliament where the government can do next to nothing. Both main parties have put forward either very silly or actively destructive policies, so it would be better for the country if the next government was unable to implement any of them.
    I'm honestly not convinced who is in next makes much real difference. A weak Gov't may well collapse faster making for more betting opportunities though.
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    George Osbourne in Colchester Asda!
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,013
    Sandpit said:

    Plato said:

    Seen what else has been done to Charlotte Leslie?

    Appalling.

    Vandals targeted a Conservative MP days before the election by deliberately flooding her garden with 1,300 litres of sticky oil.

    Charlotte Leslie has written about her shock at finding that vandals had punctured the oil tank in her garden, causing her parents' entire heating supply for the year to seep into the ground.

    A post on an anarchist blog signed by 'Thatcher's children' has claimed responsibility for the attack, blaming the government's policies and hinting that they may strike again.

    Last week cars belonging to Ms Leslie and her elderly father Ian, 70, were daubed with paint and the words 'Tory Scum' were scrawled along the bodywork.

    But now it has emerged that they also drilled a hole in the outdoor domestic fuel tank, allowing a year's supply of oil worth £500 to drain into the soil, and causing huge environmental damage.

    It did not reach the mains water pipes but the contamination means the entire garden and nearby fields will have to be dug up to stop it spreading.

    It is thought the damage happened at the same time as the family's cars were vandalised at Mr Leslie's South Gloucestershire home last Friday.
    SeanT said:

    "“Get out, you fucking Jew,” he shouts. I am being throttled as around ten Asian men surround me." The UK elex, 2015.

    http://www.politico.eu/article/galloway-bradford-elections-uk-ge2015/

    From Nats brownshirting around Glasgow to lefties writing "Tory Whore" on Tory cars to the anti-Semitic thuggery of Respect, something quite sad has happened to UK politics, and its happened quite suddenly.

    That's such a horrible story. There's a definite change in recent years towards more aggressive language in politics, I think this rubs off on some of the less intelligent supporters on all sides.

    The DT this morning had an interview with Esther McVey, she has also been subject to vandalism, graffiti and even some casual sexism from John Prescott.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11584479/Esther-McVey-The-girls-leafleting-for-me-must-be-thinking-Would-I-want-this-abuse.html

    People who behave like that are anti-social scum.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    antifrank said:

    Daniel said:

    You know, a super hung parliament might benefit our politics. For once, all the parties will have no choice but to work together - if none of them want to face a second election.

    I'm hoping for a Parliament where the government can do next to nothing. Both main parties have put forward either very silly or actively destructive policies, so it would be better for the country if the next government was unable to implement any of them.
    What policies do you see from the Tories as being actively destructive? They seem to me to have if anything a rather "steady as she goes" platform.
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    JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    rcs1000 said:

    Patrick said:

    rcs1000

    I humbly beg to differ that Nicola Sturgeon has the best interests of the UK at heart! Unless I have completely missed the point, I contend that her party exists expressly to destroy the UK.

    (or that Clegg earnestly desires to see the UK subsumed within a European superstate).

    OK: Nicola Surgeon is thinking of Scotland first :-)

    Re Clegg: I think he genuinely believes the choice is between Britain becoming the California of a United States of Europe rather than being Cuba off the edge. (Warning: dodgy analogy.) Whether he is right or not is another matter, but I do not doubt that he sincerely believes it is in the best interests of the British people.
    Being Canada off the edge would be a more accurate analogy. My reservations with Nick Clegg's integrity on the European Union is how he has failed to back David Cameron's push for reform. If he genuinely thinks Cameron's approach is mistaken, then he should spell out what reforms he wants, and how we should go about getting them, because it currently seems like he just does not want to ruffle any feathers.

    On the issue of Cameron and the EU, I had a conversation with Casino_Royale yesterday about whether Cameron was still attempting immigration changes. I noticed in the paper on the way in he mentioned we still need this:

    'We need the welfare and immigration changes, we need to get out of ever closer union, we need guarantees for the single market, a red card system for national parliaments – we need all those things to happen, but I would like Britain to stay in a reformed EU.'

    http://metro.co.uk/2015/05/06/cameron-interview-getting-one-million-back-to-work-europe-and-why-sam-told-dave-he-has-a-silly-walk-5182939/
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    rcs1000 said:

    Good afternoon.

    Interesting to see Cable on manoeuvres, arguing strongly against a 2017 EU referendum (and hence, implicitly, against a Con/LD coalition).

    Thought for the day:

    Would the LibDems be won round to a 2017 referendum if the EU were not the only question on the ballot paper? One question for the right of the coalition ("Do you want to leave the EU?") and one for the left?

    STV on the same ballot paper?

    Exactly.

    And I suspect Cameron would like it as a way of confusing the Out campaign.
    I think Clegg would be up for an EU referendum if push came to shove. He'd be gambling, almost certainly correctly, that we'd vote to stay in. UKIP are afraid of the 2017 referendum - they know we'd vote the wrong way and knacker their USP for at least a decade.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,071
    Patrick said:

    Any bets / views / data on turnout? I think we're going to see a high turnout, surprisingly so. What is the PB commentariat's view?

    Did we ever get accurate figures for voter registrations?
    It could be that a numerically smaller voter number leads to an increased turnout % if the electorate is much smaller. The opposite will be true in Scotland, where registration was much higher for the referendum.
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    compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    Strange but in the marginal I have been working in the Labour vote has hardened in the last few days, cannot put my finger on why to be honest or why people leave it to the last few days. Obviously could only be this seat.
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    AllyPally_RobAllyPally_Rob Posts: 605
    edited May 2015
    Here's some interesting Vince quotes courtesy of the Guardian:

    'Cable says that Labour had some responsibility for the financial crash, but says that the crash was not caused by Labour spending too much.'

    'Cable says that he is a politician of the left. Working with the Tories was not easy, he said. He did not feel “comfortable” about it. But he said personal preferences were not what mattered.'

    'Cable said having an EU referendum in 2017, as the Tories propose, was “a very, very bad idea”. He said that the Lib Dems were “strongly opposed” to this referendum and that, although he would not describe that as a formal red line for the party, it was an issue of “the very highest importance” to the party.'


    Is Vince beginning to maneuver???
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,033
    F1: McLaren go for a Batman-esque colour scheme:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/32611280

    Now all they need to do is work out how to make the engine work.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    antifrank said:

    Daniel said:

    You know, a super hung parliament might benefit our politics. For once, all the parties will have no choice but to work together - if none of them want to face a second election.

    I'm hoping for a Parliament where the government can do next to nothing. Both main parties have put forward either very silly or actively destructive policies, so it would be better for the country if the next government was unable to implement any of them.
    I agree. Five years with no more laws, and five years with the current laws — on issues such as FGM and forced marriage — actually being implemented.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,029

    Strange but in the marginal I have been working in the Labour vote has hardened in the last few days, cannot put my finger on why to be honest or why people leave it to the last few days. Obviously could only be this seat.

    Basil has gone to ground?
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,380
    Taking a coffee break between a zillion phone calls, so an anecdote for amusement. Chap on my list of people who told canvassers they "liked Palmer but not Labour" said he'd always voted Tory, but, well, at age 60 he'd never, ever done anything *radical*, so just this once he'd vote Labour and see how he felt.

    Eat your heart out, SeanT - some people know how to live exciting lives.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,336

    Here's some interesting Vince quotes courtesy of the Guardian:

    'Cable says that Labour had some responsibility for the financial crash, but says that the crash was not caused by Labour spending too much.'

    'Cable says that he is a politician of the left. Working with the Tories was not easy, he said. He did not feel “comfortable” about it. But he said personal preferences were not what mattered.'

    'Cable said having an EU referendum in 2017, as the Tories propose, was “a very, very bad idea”. He said that the Lib Dems were “strongly opposed” to this referendum and that, although he would not describe that as a formal red line for the party, it was an issue of “the very highest importance” to the party.'


    Is Vince beginning to maneuver???

    What do you mean begin? He has been for the past 5 years.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820

    So is everyone agreed that the exit poll is going to be bollocks, or can we put some confidence intervals around it?

    It won't be bollocks, it will probably be pretty good. However, I wouldn't rely on it being quite so extraordinarily accurate as last time, especially as regards Scotland.
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,685
    rcs1000 said:

    SeanT said:

    Yep, them too. Our politics has become coarser and nastier, tinged with race-baiting, race hatred and ugly Nationalism. It's not pretty.

    I reckon it began with Labour demonising Tories - baby eaters. That brought the discourse of hatred into British politics. And now it has spread. If you dehumanise the enemy it is OK to abuse him, or even assault him, as Hitler knew well.

    The vast majority of politicians - in the UK at least - are hard working and genuinely care about the future of this country.

    Ed Miliband genuinely believes that what he does will be best for the people of the UK.
    David Cameron, Nigel Farage, Nick Clegg, Nicola Sturgeon, etc. etc.: all believe passionately in improving people's lives.

    The only disagreement is on the exact vision of Jerusalem, and how we get there.

    When we demonise and doubt the sincerity of people's convictions, we drag discourse down, and we drag politics down, and we drag Britain down.

    We are incredibly lucky to live in the UK, where the worst political corruption has been caused by (now discovered) politcal correctness and the worst theft by a political was a duck house claimed on expenses. Far better to be here than in Russia where it is alleged that Putin has amassed a $200bn fortune off the back of his countrymen. And how lucky are we to have a press that reveals our leaders foibles.

    The UK is one of the - if not the - greatest country in the world, and we should celebrate that and recognise that.
    Admirable sentiment but in my opinion utterly untrue. None of these people are evil, certainly. But they make decisions based upon a set of factors of which the general public have no understanding. For example, the influence the USA weilds on our foreign policy (and many other policies) would be completely unfathomable to the person on the street. It doesn't make Cameron wicked that he follows this agenda - although it costs British lives. To do otherwise would be to take a huge personal risk. But it does mean that it will be better when he goes and someone better able to withstand the heat gets their turn in the kitchen.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,044
    edited May 2015

    Here's some interesting Vince quotes courtesy of the Guardian:

    'Cable says that Labour had some responsibility for the financial crash, but says that the crash was not caused by Labour spending too much.'

    'Cable says that he is a politician of the left. Working with the Tories was not easy, he said. He did not feel “comfortable” about it. But he said personal preferences were not what mattered.'

    'Cable said having an EU referendum in 2017, as the Tories propose, was “a very, very bad idea”. He said that the Lib Dems were “strongly opposed” to this referendum and that, although he would not describe that as a formal red line for the party, it was an issue of “the very highest importance” to the party.'


    Is Vince beginning to maneuver???

    Sounds like a dangerous manoeuvre to me when you're fighting to keep leafy Twickenham yellow. Wonder how the 3 bed semi tax is going down there ?
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,029
    edited May 2015

    Taking a coffee break between a zillion phone calls, so an anecdote for amusement. Chap on my list of people who told canvassers they "liked Palmer but not Labour" said he'd always voted Tory, but, well, at age 60 he'd never, ever done anything *radical*, so just this once he'd vote Labour and see how he felt.

    Eat your heart out, SeanT - some people know how to live exciting lives.

    Be careful kids, Palmer is a gateway vote.... Before long you'll be a Trot! :D
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,821

    Taking a coffee break between a zillion phone calls, so an anecdote for amusement. Chap on my list of people who told canvassers they "liked Palmer but not Labour" said he'd always voted Tory, but, well, at age 60 he'd never, ever done anything *radical*, so just this once he'd vote Labour and see how he felt.

    Eat your heart out, SeanT - some people know how to live exciting lives.

    What a surprise. You must be on course to win by over 10,000. Soubry should just give up now.
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,902

    Here's some interesting Vince quotes courtesy of the Guardian:

    'Cable says that Labour had some responsibility for the financial crash, but says that the crash was not caused by Labour spending too much.'

    'Cable says that he is a politician of the left. Working with the Tories was not easy, he said. He did not feel “comfortable” about it. But he said personal preferences were not what mattered.'

    'Cable said having an EU referendum in 2017, as the Tories propose, was “a very, very bad idea”. He said that the Lib Dems were “strongly opposed” to this referendum and that, although he would not describe that as a formal red line for the party, it was an issue of “the very highest importance” to the party.'


    Is Vince beginning to maneuver???

    What do you mean begin? He has been for the past 5 years.
    There's this dangerous assumption that he'll still be there on Friday, from what I've seen of the Tory campaign they are really pushing to get him out.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Taking a coffee break between a zillion phone calls, so an anecdote for amusement. Chap on my list of people who told canvassers they "liked Palmer but not Labour" said he'd always voted Tory, but, well, at age 60 he'd never, ever done anything *radical*, so just this once he'd vote Labour and see how he felt.

    Eat your heart out, SeanT - some people know how to live exciting lives.

    When a voter says they're going to vote a certain way, how do you know they're actually going to vote that way, and haven't just said they will to get rid of the person asking the question? I'm always agreeing with survey people on the phone in the hope it'll cut short the call.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Tabman said:

    How do Exit Polls factor in postal votes - so they assume they break as polling day votes do? That strikes me as a dangerous assumption.

    I think they factor in that the change in the postal votes will be the same as those on the day. I don't know if they make any adjustment to that, but, yes, that is another source of possible error.
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,902

    I'm looking forward to the "Did you stay up for Farage?" moments on Friday morning.

    When is South Thanet declaring?
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    FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    Sandpit said:

    Patrick said:

    Any bets / views / data on turnout? I think we're going to see a high turnout, surprisingly so. What is the PB commentariat's view?

    Did we ever get accurate figures for voter registrations?
    It could be that a numerically smaller voter number leads to an increased turnout % if the electorate is much smaller. The opposite will be true in Scotland, where registration was much higher for the referendum.
    Just feel that E&W turnout could be lower than 2010 but have no evidence for it. Overall figure could be skewed by Scotland as infer.
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,291
    Chameleon said:

    Here's some interesting Vince quotes courtesy of the Guardian:

    'Cable says that Labour had some responsibility for the financial crash, but says that the crash was not caused by Labour spending too much.'

    'Cable says that he is a politician of the left. Working with the Tories was not easy, he said. He did not feel “comfortable” about it. But he said personal preferences were not what mattered.'

    'Cable said having an EU referendum in 2017, as the Tories propose, was “a very, very bad idea”. He said that the Lib Dems were “strongly opposed” to this referendum and that, although he would not describe that as a formal red line for the party, it was an issue of “the very highest importance” to the party.'


    Is Vince beginning to maneuver???

    What do you mean begin? He has been for the past 5 years.
    There's this dangerous assumption that he'll still be there on Friday, from what I've seen of the Tory campaign they are really pushing to get him out.
    A frayed worn out Cable needs to be replaced.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,288
    Sorry the site is all ugly...

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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Chameleon said:

    Here's some interesting Vince quotes courtesy of the Guardian:

    'Cable says that Labour had some responsibility for the financial crash, but says that the crash was not caused by Labour spending too much.'

    'Cable says that he is a politician of the left. Working with the Tories was not easy, he said. He did not feel “comfortable” about it. But he said personal preferences were not what mattered.'

    'Cable said having an EU referendum in 2017, as the Tories propose, was “a very, very bad idea”. He said that the Lib Dems were “strongly opposed” to this referendum and that, although he would not describe that as a formal red line for the party, it was an issue of “the very highest importance” to the party.'


    Is Vince beginning to maneuver???

    What do you mean begin? He has been for the past 5 years.
    There's this dangerous assumption that he'll still be there on Friday, from what I've seen of the Tory campaign they are really pushing to get him out.
    Can you blame them?
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,821

    So is everyone agreed that the exit poll is going to be bollocks, or can we put some confidence intervals around it?

    It won't be bollocks, it will probably be pretty good. However, I wouldn't rely on it being quite so extraordinarily accurate as last time, especially as regards Scotland.
    I'm thinking.. within +/- 15 seats for the big two parties, within +/- 5 seats for the SNP and not much decisive about UKIP, and neither for the Lib Dems.

    What do you think?
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,071

    Taking a coffee break between a zillion phone calls, so an anecdote for amusement. Chap on my list of people who told canvassers they "liked Palmer but not Labour" said he'd always voted Tory, but, well, at age 60 he'd never, ever done anything *radical*, so just this once he'd vote Labour and see how he felt.

    Eat your heart out, SeanT - some people know how to live exciting lives.

    One of the 389 down! Good luck to you tomorrow, sounds like you could be in with a chance in a very close race!
    Do we have any other Parliamentary candidates on here?
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,044
    Chameleon said:

    Here's some interesting Vince quotes courtesy of the Guardian:

    'Cable says that Labour had some responsibility for the financial crash, but says that the crash was not caused by Labour spending too much.'

    'Cable says that he is a politician of the left. Working with the Tories was not easy, he said. He did not feel “comfortable” about it. But he said personal preferences were not what mattered.'

    'Cable said having an EU referendum in 2017, as the Tories propose, was “a very, very bad idea”. He said that the Lib Dems were “strongly opposed” to this referendum and that, although he would not describe that as a formal red line for the party, it was an issue of “the very highest importance” to the party.'


    Is Vince beginning to maneuver???

    What do you mean begin? He has been for the past 5 years.
    There's this dangerous assumption that he'll still be there on Friday, from what I've seen of the Tory campaign they are really pushing to get him out.
    Has Nick gone to Twickers yet ?

    **Innocent face**
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,902
    rcs1000 said:

    Sorry the site is all ugly...

    Do you have the horrendous SPIN advert as well?
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    dr_spyn said:

    Chameleon said:

    Here's some interesting Vince quotes courtesy of the Guardian:

    'Cable says that Labour had some responsibility for the financial crash, but says that the crash was not caused by Labour spending too much.'

    'Cable says that he is a politician of the left. Working with the Tories was not easy, he said. He did not feel “comfortable” about it. But he said personal preferences were not what mattered.'

    'Cable said having an EU referendum in 2017, as the Tories propose, was “a very, very bad idea”. He said that the Lib Dems were “strongly opposed” to this referendum and that, although he would not describe that as a formal red line for the party, it was an issue of “the very highest importance” to the party.'


    Is Vince beginning to maneuver???

    What do you mean begin? He has been for the past 5 years.
    There's this dangerous assumption that he'll still be there on Friday, from what I've seen of the Tory campaign they are really pushing to get him out.
    A frayed worn out Cable needs to be replaced.
    Fortunately he will be by 10pm tomorrow
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    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,390

    Taking a coffee break between a zillion phone calls, so an anecdote for amusement. Chap on my list of people who told canvassers they "liked Palmer but not Labour" said he'd always voted Tory, but, well, at age 60 he'd never, ever done anything *radical*, so just this once he'd vote Labour and see how he felt.

    Eat your heart out, SeanT - some people know how to live exciting lives.

    What a surprise. You must be on course to win by over 10,000. Soubry should just give up now.
    More than that, CR, now that Eddie and I have the TV vote tied up - in some cases literally.
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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    Taking a coffee break between a zillion phone calls, so an anecdote for amusement. Chap on my list of people who told canvassers they "liked Palmer but not Labour" said he'd always voted Tory, but, well, at age 60 he'd never, ever done anything *radical*, so just this once he'd vote Labour and see how he felt.

    Eat your heart out, SeanT - some people know how to live exciting lives.

    What a surprise. You must be on course to win by over 10,000. Soubry should just give up now.
    It's a tale from the campaign trail. Swapping such tales is what activists do. I dont think Nick was trying to claim that all 60yo men in Broxtowe were going to vote for him.

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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,288
    Pulpstar said:

    I'm looking forward to the "Did you stay up for Farage?" moments on Friday morning.

    I plan to see Farage get in by around 5%.
    As I'm on Cons +6.5% (thanks isam) *and* UKIP 2 or more seats, that would suit me well :-)
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    DanielDaniel Posts: 160
    Chameleon said:


    When is South Thanet declaring?

    Think it is similar to majority of Kent - counting doesn't start to 9am.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,821
    Where is ICM?
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    So is everyone agreed that the exit poll is going to be bollocks, or can we put some confidence intervals around it?

    It won't be bollocks, it will probably be pretty good. However, I wouldn't rely on it being quite so extraordinarily accurate as last time, especially as regards Scotland.
    I'm thinking.. within +/- 15 seats for the big two parties, within +/- 5 seats for the SNP and not much decisive about UKIP, and neither for the Lib Dems.

    What do you think?
    I think within +/-1 for UKIP. The fact UKIP are only competitive in about 5 makes it easier not to make too horrendous a mistake.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,821

    Taking a coffee break between a zillion phone calls, so an anecdote for amusement. Chap on my list of people who told canvassers they "liked Palmer but not Labour" said he'd always voted Tory, but, well, at age 60 he'd never, ever done anything *radical*, so just this once he'd vote Labour and see how he felt.

    Eat your heart out, SeanT - some people know how to live exciting lives.

    What a surprise. You must be on course to win by over 10,000. Soubry should just give up now.
    More than that, CR, now that Eddie and I have the TV vote tied up - in some cases literally.
    Haha :-)
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    stodgestodge Posts: 12,932
    Oddly enough. tomorrow is going to be a strange day for me. I've been involved in politics and been a member of a political party since 1979 but this campaign and tomorrow is the one in which I've had least involvement since 1979.

    In 1983, I leafleted and canvassed while at University and in 1987 was an Election Agent with all that entailed. In 1992 I ran a Committee Room and in 1997 I was in St Ives in Cornwall. I was up before 6.30 and did first telling at the school at the back of St Ives at 7am and spent the entire day (apart from a one-hour break) telling, knocking up or driving voters to the polling station. At 9.30pm I was telling at Zennor outside the Methodist Hall (SeanT might know it) and I gave up when it got dark and the battery on my torch died.

    I went back to the Hotel where I was staying and didn't even hear the exit poll. I got up at 7am on the Friday, checked Ceefax (remember that ?) for the result, cheered the election of Tom Brake before going down mid-morning to St John's Hall in Penzance to hear the declaration and see Andrew George confirmed as MP.

    In 2001 I mixed my time between C&W and St Ives but in 2005 and 2010 I worked for Tom in C&W doing telling, knocking up and the like but I've never sat through a night's election coverage live.

    Tomorrow I'll go to work and do a little in the evening but I can't stay up too late as I have back-to-back meetings from 9am on Friday in Winchester. It'll be strange for me but I wish all activists of all parties well for tomorrow - for those doing it for the first time, I hope you enjoy and appreciate the democratic process. The more experienced can argue interpretations of election law over rosettes in polling stations and where tellers can sit.
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,685
    edited May 2015
    Anorak said:

    rcs1000 said:

    SeanT said:

    Yep, them too. Our politics has become coarser and nastier, tinged with race-baiting, race hatred and ugly Nationalism. It's not pretty.

    I reckon it began with Labour demonising Tories - baby eaters. That brought the discourse of hatred into British politics. And now it has spread. If you dehumanise the enemy it is OK to abuse him, or even assault him, as Hitler knew well.

    The vast majority of politicians - in the UK at least - are hard working and genuinely care about the future of this country.

    Ed Miliband genuinely believes that what he does will be best for the people of the UK.
    David Cameron, Nigel Farage, Nick Clegg, Nicola Sturgeon, etc. etc.: all believe passionately in improving people's lives.

    The only disagreement is on the exact vision of Jerusalem, and how we get there.

    When we demonise and doubt the sincerity of people's convictions, we drag discourse down, and we drag politics down, and we drag Britain down.

    We are incredibly lucky to live in the UK, where the worst political corruption has been caused by (now discovered) politcal correctness and the worst theft by a political was a duck house claimed on expenses. Far better to be here than in Russia where it is alleged that Putin has amassed a $200bn fortune off the back of his countrymen. And how lucky are we to have a press that reveals our leaders foibles.

    The UK is one of the - if not the - greatest country in the world, and we should celebrate that and recognise that.
    A fine post.

    [Also, what does Putin want with all that money? He's effectively the dictator of a hugely powerful nation! Umm. Actually, it's probably a war-chest to buy support to remain dictator for as long as he wants.]
    Clearly he does nothing with it, as the article states he lives modestly, and furthermore offers no evidence that he has what appears to be a completely arbitrary sum of money that a self-promoting polemicist has plucked out of thin air to promote his book.

    Yet rsc100 (though credit is deserved for saying alleged) asks us to assume his guilt, but purify our minds of any notion that our own leading politicians have any corrupt motives. It makes absolutely no sense.

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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    who where on labourdoorstep today - part I

    Balls: Stevenage
    Cooper: Bradford West
    Khan: Ilford North
    Umunna: Enfield North
    Burnham: Crewe
    Ival Lewis: Harlow
    Angela Eagle: Wirral West
    Berger: Harlow
    Lammy: Hampstead
    Owen Smith: Aberconwy, Clwyd West, Ynys Mon
    Swanea East candidate: Carms West & South Pembrokeshire
    Trickett: Elmet & Rothwel
    Winterton: Elmet/Rothwell


    General Secretary: Manchester Whitington, Bury North, Rossendale
    Rhodri Morgan: Cardiff North
    McCluskey: South Ribble,

    London and the NW in the main.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,380
    AndyJS said:



    When a voter says they're going to vote a certain way, how do you know they're actually going to vote that way, and haven't just said they will to get rid of the person asking the question? I'm always agreeing with survey people on the phone in the hope it'll cut short the call.

    You don't. (The anecdote was just for amusement.) In general I think one can have a reasonable guess from the choice of words, but obviously one can never be sure.

    Of more interest, I was phoned yesterday by Populus who were doing a survey of people who had voted by post already. When they heard I'd decided to vote in person, they asked if they could call me back tomorrow after I'd voted to find out what I'd decided. Presumably this is two halves of an exit poll.

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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,044
    I can't remember an election where all THREE party leaders have looked as vulnerable to post election manouvrings.

    273-272-24 should be a corker for knife watchers.
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    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited May 2015
    They went to Ilford North on May 3th
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CEGJpawWMAAhYbu.jpg

    Timms was in Harlow on May 2th and April 27th

    On April 26th they went up to East Dunbartonshire...for some mysterious reasons..
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CDgKSL_WoAAVw74.jpg

    Some West Ham activists also did some trips to Ilford North.

    Hodge and Barking CLP traveled to Thurrock yesterday.

    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    Labour have abandoned East Ham - Stephen Timms gallantly struggling to defend his 27,000 majority - which makes me think they are going to other prospects (unless UKIP are doing much better in B&D) such as Ilford North. Last time there were Borough elections and it's fair to say the Tory effort here has been almost nil. The TUSC candidate apparently has a stall outside an empty shop in East Ham High Street and she may do enough to finish fourth.

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    peterbusspeterbuss Posts: 109
    dr_spyn said:

    Chameleon said:

    Here's some interesting Vince quotes courtesy of the Guardian:

    'Cable says that Labour had some responsibility for the financial crash, but says that the crash was not caused by Labour spending too much.'

    'Cable says that he is a politician of the left. Working with the Tories was not easy, he said. He did not feel “comfortable” about it. But he said personal preferences were not what mattered.'

    'Cable said having an EU referendum in 2017, as the Tories propose, was “a very, very bad idea”. He said that the Lib Dems were “strongly opposed” to this referendum and that, although he would not describe that as a formal red line for the party, it was an issue of “the very highest importance” to the party.'


    Is Vince beginning to maneuver???

    What do you mean begin? He has been for the past 5 years.
    There's this dangerous assumption that he'll still be there on Friday, from what I've seen of the Tory campaign they are really pushing to get him out.
    A frayed worn out Cable needs to be replaced.
    If Cam fails to win then for me the sweetest pill to lessen the bitter cup would be for Cable to be booted out as an MP!

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    calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    antifrank said:

    calum said:

    Chris Deerin has a good summary of the Scottish pundits views, the "experts" seem to be netting out that the SNP will only win mid - 40s:

    https://medium.com/@cstreetpartners/place-your-bets-3603e6dac7a4

    Summary: Scottish pundits ignore the opinion polls.
    The MSM spends much of its time highlighting Cybernat abuse, however I've rarely seen anything about Cyberunionist efforts. I think this is due to the MSM not quite realising that most of them are Cyberunionists, not only do they demonise Scots/SNP in their papers but then carpet bomb twitter, retweeting each other in a frenzy.

    A good example of a Cyberunionist is a twitter user @Historywoman :

    https://twitter.com/Historywoman

    In 6 years she has tweeted over 100,000 times, if you skim through her feed, I think you'll agree she deserves the title of the Cybernat Slayer !!

    My sense is that the Cyberunionist gives as good as it gets from Cybernats - just take a look at the United Against Separation page and you will see the Cyber war is well underway:

    https://www.facebook.com/VoteNo2014
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    kjhkjh Posts: 10,717



    Cable says that he is a politician of the left. Working with the Tories was not easy, he said. He did not feel “comfortable” about it. But he said personal preferences were not what mattered.'



    Need context. I listened to the phone in. He was specifically asked about working with the Tories when his views were more to the left. He avoided the left/right issue and focused on doing the job and his personal views were not relevant. He was accused of not answering the question and pushed to answer it. He then either needed to evade the question again or answer it. he answered it. I don't think there are any motives at work.

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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,821
    Neil said:

    Taking a coffee break between a zillion phone calls, so an anecdote for amusement. Chap on my list of people who told canvassers they "liked Palmer but not Labour" said he'd always voted Tory, but, well, at age 60 he'd never, ever done anything *radical*, so just this once he'd vote Labour and see how he felt.

    Eat your heart out, SeanT - some people know how to live exciting lives.

    What a surprise. You must be on course to win by over 10,000. Soubry should just give up now.
    It's a tale from the campaign trail. Swapping such tales is what activists do. I dont think Nick was trying to claim that all 60yo men in Broxtowe were going to vote for him.

    I think we can all agree that Nick Palmer is going to walk this, and should do the honorable thing and go to the palace to resign his seat if his majority is less than 5,000 having failed to meet his target mandate ;-)
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,013
    Plato said:
    Plato said:
    Not for the first time with the Guardian, it's hard to tell if this is a parody or not.
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    AndyJS said:



    When a voter says they're going to vote a certain way, how do you know they're actually going to vote that way, and haven't just said they will to get rid of the person asking the question? I'm always agreeing with survey people on the phone in the hope it'll cut short the call.

    You don't. (The anecdote was just for amusement.) In general I think one can have a reasonable guess from the choice of words, but obviously one can never be sure.

    Of more interest, I was phoned yesterday by Populus who were doing a survey of people who had voted by post already. When they heard I'd decided to vote in person, they asked if they could call me back tomorrow after I'd voted to find out what I'd decided. Presumably this is two halves of an exit poll.

    You should probably vote for Anna, Nick. Given your anecdotes, she needs your vote to get within 15,000 of the other fellow.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,071

    F1: McLaren go for a Batman-esque colour scheme:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/32611280

    Now all they need to do is work out how to make the engine work.

    That's, urm...., different! One assumes that as it now very clearly says "Honda" on the side, they have managed to work out how to make the engine go a little faster over the last 3 weeks!
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    tessyCtessyC Posts: 106
    Exciting final Welsh poll...

    Labour 39% (-1%)
    Conservative 25% (-1%)
    Plaid Cymru 13% (+1%)
    UKIP 12% (-1%)
    Liberal Democrats 8% (+2%)
    Greens 2% (-2%)

    http://www.itv.com/news/wales/update/2015-05-06/poll-shows-welsh-labour-lead-still-14/

    Earth shattering.......
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    kjhkjh Posts: 10,717

    Sorry haven't cracked how to post properly yet. .

    Below was my comment not AllyPally Rob. Sorry APB.


    Need context. I listened to the phone in. He was specifically asked about working with the Tories when his views were more to the left. He avoided the left/right issue and focused on doing the job and his personal views were not relevant. He was accused of not answering the question and pushed to answer it. He then either needed to evade the question again or answer it. he answered it. I don't think there are any motives at work.
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    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Am I right that only two polls now have Labour in the lead - Panelbase and Survation - both of which have heavy UKIP bias?
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,029
    Daniel said:

    Chameleon said:


    When is South Thanet declaring?

    Think it is similar to majority of Kent - counting doesn't start to 9am.
    Not counting immediately after the polls close? Makes me sick.
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    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Compared to 2010

    Lab +3
    Con -1
    Plaid +2
    UKIP +10
    LD -12
    Green +1.5
    tessyC said:

    Exciting final Welsh poll...

    Labour 39% (-1%)
    Conservative 25% (-1%)
    Plaid Cymru 13% (+1%)
    UKIP 12% (-1%)
    Liberal Democrats 8% (+2%)
    Greens 2% (-2%)

    http://www.itv.com/news/wales/update/2015-05-06/poll-shows-welsh-labour-lead-still-14/

    Earth shattering.......

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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,291
    Pulpstar said:

    I can't remember an election where all THREE party leaders have looked as vulnerable to post election manouvrings.

    273-272-24 should be a corker for knife watchers.

    Will Bennett and Farage survive as well? The changes at the top could be across the board.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820

    Let's not forget The Enemy Within.

    Precisely: A small thuggish olligarchy trying to bring down the democratically-elected government using violence, intimidation and economic blackmail. We certainly mustn't forget them, and no democrat will ever cease to rejoice that they were, finally and with much difficulty, defeated.
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    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Pulpstar said:

    I can't remember an election where all THREE party leaders have looked as vulnerable to post election manouvrings.

    273-272-24 should be a corker for knife watchers.

    Ed Miliband would get into no 10 on those and the LiB Dems would join with him to give him some legitimacy, I think courtesy of the SNP (those believers in Democracy who would never support the Tories)
This discussion has been closed.