That works both ways though - the next Parliament could fritter money away left, right and centre trying to maintain political favour and adopt weak responses to 'events'.
That's exactly what a weak minority government will do, and why it would be such a disaster. They'll have no choice but to buy support from whichever vested interest is bleating most loudly (mostly it will be the SNP).
So Labour aren't doing well enough in Wales, not doing anything in Scotland, not doing enough in the midlands. They are doing enough in the South and London, but where's the low hanging fruit?
When a voter says they're going to vote a certain way, how do you know they're actually going to vote that way, and haven't just said they will to get rid of the person asking the question? I'm always agreeing with survey people on the phone in the hope it'll cut short the call.
You don't. (The anecdote was just for amusement.) In general I think one can have a reasonable guess from the choice of words, but obviously one can never be sure.
Of more interest, I was phoned yesterday by Populus who were doing a survey of people who had voted by post already. When they heard I'd decided to vote in person, they asked if they could call me back tomorrow after I'd voted to find out what I'd decided. Presumably this is two halves of an exit poll.
Ha, did they not realise that you would be voting for yourself?
Taking a coffee break between a zillion phone calls, so an anecdote for amusement. Chap on my list of people who told canvassers they "liked Palmer but not Labour" said he'd always voted Tory, but, well, at age 60 he'd never, ever done anything *radical*, so just this once he'd vote Labour and see how he felt.
Eat your heart out, SeanT - some people know how to live exciting lives.
When a voter says they're going to vote a certain way, how do you know they're actually going to vote that way, and haven't just said they will to get rid of the person asking the question? I'm always agreeing with survey people on the phone in the hope it'll cut short the call.
You dont know however after many years of door knocking experience you do develop some ability at working whether people just want to get rid of you. How do the phone pollsters know if people are telling them what they really think.
There is always the old lady who wants to keep you talking on the doorstep for hours on the vague thought she might support your candidate, she then turns out to be a member of the local LDs who just wants to stop you talking to real undecided voters
Taking a coffee break between a zillion phone calls, so an anecdote for amusement. Chap on my list of people who told canvassers they "liked Palmer but not Labour" said he'd always voted Tory, but, well, at age 60 he'd never, ever done anything *radical*, so just this once he'd vote Labour and see how he felt.
Eat your heart out, SeanT - some people know how to live exciting lives.
'Taking a coffee break' - presumably that's a euphemism for quaffing champagne from a magnum of Bollinger.
So Labour aren't doing well enough in Wales, not doing anything in Scotland, not doing enough in the midlands. They are doing enough in the South and London, but where's the low hanging fruit?
So is everyone agreed that the exit poll is going to be bollocks, or can we put some confidence intervals around it?
It won't be bollocks, it will probably be pretty good. However, I wouldn't rely on it being quite so extraordinarily accurate as last time, especially as regards Scotland.
I'm thinking.. within +/- 15 seats for the big two parties, within +/- 5 seats for the SNP and not much decisive about UKIP, and neither for the Lib Dems.
What do you think?
My hunch is that they'll be closer on the Conservatives than that, but the Labour figure has the additional uncertainty of being the mirror image of the SNP uncertainty.
So Labour aren't doing well enough in Wales, not doing anything in Scotland, not doing enough in the midlands. They are doing enough in the South and London, but where's the low hanging fruit?
Labour are doing fine in Wales, they're 3 points up on 2010, which given they've been running the Assembly for 16 years isn't bad going.
I can't remember an election where all THREE party leaders have looked as vulnerable to post election manouvrings.
273-272-24 should be a corker for knife watchers.
Will Bennett and Farage survive as well? The changes at the top could be across the board.
I don't really see any "triggers" for Bennett - 3rd place or lower in all of Norwich South, Sheffield Central, Bristol West and losing Pavilion perhaps.
So Labour aren't doing well enough in Wales, not doing anything in Scotland, not doing enough in the midlands. They are doing enough in the South and London, but where's the low hanging fruit?
Labour are doing fine in Wales, they're 3 points up on 2010, which given they've been running the Assembly for 16 years isn't bad going.
Aside from UKIP and LD switch, Wales looks all like MoE stuff to me.
SNP has moved down slightly on SPIN. And LDs have moved up a bit. Given the latest polls, I think LDs are going to surprise on the upside. I now have them at 30.
Taking a coffee break between a zillion phone calls, so an anecdote for amusement. Chap on my list of people who told canvassers they "liked Palmer but not Labour" said he'd always voted Tory, but, well, at age 60 he'd never, ever done anything *radical*, so just this once he'd vote Labour and see how he felt.
Eat your heart out, SeanT - some people know how to live exciting lives.
One of the 389 down! Good luck to you tomorrow, sounds like you could be in with a chance in a very close race! Do we have any other Parliamentary candidates on here?
Yes - but minor party (Pirate), so not sure it counts (and I post somewhat infrequently...)
Yep, them too. Our politics has become coarser and nastier, tinged with race-baiting, race hatred and ugly Nationalism. It's not pretty.
I reckon it began with Labour demonising Tories - baby eaters. That brought the discourse of hatred into British politics. And now it has spread. If you dehumanise the enemy it is OK to abuse him, or even assault him, as Hitler knew well.
The vast majority of politicians - in the UK at least - are hard working and genuinely care about the future of this country.
Ed Miliband genuinely believes that what he does will be best for the people of the UK. David Cameron, Nigel Farage, Nick Clegg, Nicola Sturgeon, etc. etc.: all believe passionately in improving people's lives.
The only disagreement is on the exact vision of Jerusalem, and how we get there.
When we demonise and doubt the sincerity of people's convictions, we drag discourse down, and we drag politics down, and we drag Britain down.
We are incredibly lucky to live in the UK, where the worst political corruption has been caused by (now discovered) politcal correctness and the worst theft by a political was a duck house claimed on expenses. Far better to be here than in Russia where it is alleged that Putin has amassed a $200bn fortune off the back of his countrymen. And how lucky are we to have a press that reveals our leaders foibles.
The UK is one of the - if not the - greatest country in the world, and we should celebrate that and recognise that.
Admirable sentiment but in my opinion utterly untrue. None of these people are evil, certainly. But they make decisions based upon a set of factors of which the general public have no understanding. For example, the influence the USA weilds on our foreign policy (and many other policies) would be completely unfathomable to the person on the street. It doesn't make Cameron wicked that he follows this agenda - although it costs British lives. To do otherwise would be to take a huge personal risk. But it does mean that it will be better when he goes and someone better able to withstand the heat gets their turn in the kitchen.
You mean Cameron invased Afghanistan and Iraq because the US told him to do so?
Taking a coffee break between a zillion phone calls, so an anecdote for amusement. Chap on my list of people who told canvassers they "liked Palmer but not Labour" said he'd always voted Tory, but, well, at age 60 he'd never, ever done anything *radical*, so just this once he'd vote Labour and see how he felt.
Eat your heart out, SeanT - some people know how to live exciting lives.
One of the 389 down! Good luck to you tomorrow, sounds like you could be in with a chance in a very close race! Do we have any other Parliamentary candidates on here?
Yes - but minor party (Pirate), so not sure it counts (and I post somewhat infrequently...)
It's the same £500 it costs everyone else so of course it counts!
SNP has moved down slightly on SPIN. And LDs have moved up a bit. Given the latest polls, I think LDs are going to surprise on the upside. I now have them at 30.
Taking a coffee break between a zillion phone calls, so an anecdote for amusement. Chap on my list of people who told canvassers they "liked Palmer but not Labour" said he'd always voted Tory, but, well, at age 60 he'd never, ever done anything *radical*, so just this once he'd vote Labour and see how he felt.
Eat your heart out, SeanT - some people know how to live exciting lives.
One of the 389 down! Good luck to you tomorrow, sounds like you could be in with a chance in a very close race! Do we have any other Parliamentary candidates on here?
Yes - but minor party (Pirate), so not sure it counts (and I post somewhat infrequently...)
Good luck! Where are you running if you don't mind me asking?
I can't remember an election where all THREE party leaders have looked as vulnerable to post election manouvrings.
273-272-24 should be a corker for knife watchers.
Will Bennett and Farage survive as well? The changes at the top could be across the board.
I don't really see any "triggers" for Bennett - 3rd place or lower in all of Norwich South, Sheffield Central, Bristol West and losing Pavilion perhaps.
The members, in their wisdom, re-elected Bennett (to be fair to the members she was unopposed) last September. We are stuck with, I mean, we will enjoy the benefit of her leadership until September 2016 when I predict she will stand down.
Taking a coffee break between a zillion phone calls, so an anecdote for amusement. Chap on my list of people who told canvassers they "liked Palmer but not Labour" said he'd always voted Tory, but, well, at age 60 he'd never, ever done anything *radical*, so just this once he'd vote Labour and see how he felt.
Eat your heart out, SeanT - some people know how to live exciting lives.
One of the 389 down! Good luck to you tomorrow, sounds like you could be in with a chance in a very close race! Do we have any other Parliamentary candidates on here?
Yes - but minor party (Pirate), so not sure it counts (and I post somewhat infrequently...)
It's the same £500 it costs everyone else so of course it counts!
I meant in terms of gracing PB with my presence in the way that Nick does! ;-)
From Nats brownshirting around Glasgow to lefties writing "Tory Whore" on Tory cars to the anti-Semitic thuggery of Respect, something quite sad has happened to UK politics, and its happened quite suddenly.
You neglected to mention the Kipper who wants to 'put a bullet between the eyes' of his opponent.
Yep, them too. Our politics has become coarser and nastier, tinged with race-baiting, race hatred and ugly Nationalism. It's not pretty.
I reckon it began with Labour demonising Tories - baby eaters. That brought the discourse of hatred into British politics. And now it has spread. If you dehumanise the enemy it is OK to abuse him, or even assault him, as Hitler knew well.
Somehow I knew you'd manage to pin the blame on lefties.
Actually I think the Tories must take some blame as well. Thatcher describing striking miners as "the enemy within" was a low point for the Tory party.
However it is pretty much undeniable that the relentless discourse of dehumanising hatred mainly comes from the Left, directed at Tories for decades now - evil bankers, baby eaters, posh scum destroying the NHS etc etc. Nye Bevan called Tories "vermin" back in the 40s.
As long as this rhetoric was restricted to a few loopier lefties it was OK, but it has infected mainstream Labour discourse, and has - as I say - now spread far and wide to other parties. Indeed it is being turned ON Labour by the Nats.
It needs to stop.
It is the end of days, SeanT calls for more civility, and less insults in the world!
(I do agree with you though)
Too many insults just dilutes the quality. I'm in favour of high quality insults myself.
Yep, them too. Our politics has become coarser and nastier, tinged with race-baiting, race hatred and ugly Nationalism. It's not pretty.
I reckon it began with Labour demonising Tories - baby eaters. That brought the discourse of hatred into British politics. And now it has spread. If you dehumanise the enemy it is OK to abuse him, or even assault him, as Hitler knew well.
The vast majority of politicians - in the UK at least - are hard working and genuinely care about the future of this country.
Ed Miliband genuinely believes that what he does will be best for the people of the UK. David Cameron, Nigel Farage, Nick Clegg, Nicola Sturgeon, etc. etc.: all believe passionately in improving people's lives.
The only disagreement is on the exact vision of Jerusalem, and how we get there.
When we demonise and doubt the sincerity of people's convictions, we drag discourse down, and we drag politics down, and we drag Britain down.
We are incredibly lucky to live in the UK, where the worst political corruption has been caused by (now discovered) politcal correctness and the worst theft by a political was a duck house claimed on expenses. Far better to be here than in Russia where it is alleged that Putin has amassed a $200bn fortune off the back of his countrymen. And how lucky are we to have a press that reveals our leaders foibles.
The UK is one of the - if not the - greatest country in the world, and we should celebrate that and recognise that.
Funny the media never seems to mention Cameron's expenses.
Tony Blair's extraordinary net worth certainly raises eyebrows.
I'll humour you and pretend you had a serious point. The old Yeltsin era oligarchs looted far more and transferred the funds to the West and Israel with active support or little criticism from the West. I guess that would be the main issue then that this has been stopped? Ultimately when your GDP per capita rises by a factor you are given a lot of leeway, people tend to be pragmatic. For me I don't consider it my concern, except for how we as a country can also benefit through expanding trade.
Interesting to see Cable on manoeuvres, arguing strongly against a 2017 EU referendum (and hence, implicitly, against a Con/LD coalition).
Thought for the day:
Would the LibDems be won round to a 2017 referendum if the EU were not the only question on the ballot paper? One question for the right of the coalition ("Do you want to leave the EU?") and one for the left?
STV on the same ballot paper?
Exactly.
And I suspect Cameron would like it as a way of confusing the Out campaign.
I think Clegg would be up for an EU referendum if push came to shove. He'd be gambling, almost certainly correctly, that we'd vote to stay in. UKIP are afraid of the 2017 referendum - they know we'd vote the wrong way and knacker their USP for at least a decade.
If I were a UKIP supporter I would be looking at the SNP and be very enthusiastic about losing a 2017 EU referendum. If OUT gets one-third of the vote and UKIP can get that third of the vote to rally around their party in the way the 45% are rallying around the SNP then they would be well on to winning the next general election.
Labour must be thanking their lucky stars for the enduring strength and power of their brand, otherwise they well and truly would be stuffed.
I assume you're being sarcastic!
Labour is in a great position because it spent 13 years expanding relentlessly the tentacles of the state so millions now have a vested interest in putting it into power.
Though it hasn't helped much in Scotland, although of course it is now the SNP doling it out, and being rewarded at the ballot box accordingly.
Taking a coffee break between a zillion phone calls, so an anecdote for amusement. Chap on my list of people who told canvassers they "liked Palmer but not Labour" said he'd always voted Tory, but, well, at age 60 he'd never, ever done anything *radical*, so just this once he'd vote Labour and see how he felt.
Eat your heart out, SeanT - some people know how to live exciting lives.
One of the 389 down! Good luck to you tomorrow, sounds like you could be in with a chance in a very close race! Do we have any other Parliamentary candidates on here?
Yes - but minor party (Pirate), so not sure it counts (and I post somewhat infrequently...)
Interesting to see Cable on manoeuvres, arguing strongly against a 2017 EU referendum (and hence, implicitly, against a Con/LD coalition).
Thought for the day:
Would the LibDems be won round to a 2017 referendum if the EU were not the only question on the ballot paper? One question for the right of the coalition ("Do you want to leave the EU?") and one for the left?
STV on the same ballot paper?
Exactly.
And I suspect Cameron would like it as a way of confusing the Out campaign.
I think Clegg would be up for an EU referendum if push came to shove. He'd be gambling, almost certainly correctly, that we'd vote to stay in. UKIP are afraid of the 2017 referendum - they know we'd vote the wrong way and knacker their USP for at least a decade.
If I were a UKIP supporter I would be looking at the SNP and be very enthusiastic about losing a 2017 EU referendum. If OUT gets one-third of the vote and UKIP can get that third of the vote to rally around their party in the way the 45% are rallying around the SNP then they would be well on to winning the next general election.
A shame for the Lib Dems that they didnt manage to get everyone who voted for AV to rally around them now!
Labour must be thanking their lucky stars for the enduring strength and power of their brand, otherwise they well and truly would be stuffed.
I assume you're being sarcastic!
Labour is in a great position because it spent 13 years expanding relentlessly the tentacles of the state so millions now have a vested interest in putting it into power.
Though it hasn't helped much in Scotland, although of course it is now the SNP doling it out, and being rewarded at the ballot box accordingly.
Some West Ham activists also did some trips to Ilford North.
Hodge and Barking CLP traveled to Thurrock yesterday.
Thanks for that, Andrea, and pretty much what I expected. Clearly, Labour think both Ilford North and Thurrock are in play and the former is one to watch. My view on London is crystallising around the seats Labour lost in 2005.
IF Labour can get some of those back it will represent a very strong result but the first targets must be the 2010 losses plus Enfield North plus whatever they can get from the LDs.
Tories nudging 35% at the top end. Still think we'll end up with a 35% tory - 32% lab vote.
And yes, EICIPM. And he'll certainly be crap with that result
35/32 will keep Cameron in Downing Street, at least until another election. A Labour Party polling 32% won't win the 275 seats in England and Wales it needs to form an Lab/SNP coalition.
Labour must be thanking their lucky stars for the enduring strength and power of their brand, otherwise they well and truly would be stuffed.
I assume you're being sarcastic!
Labour is in a great position because it spent 13 years expanding relentlessly the tentacles of the state so millions now have a vested interest in putting it into power.
Though it hasn't helped much in Scotland, although of course it is now the SNP doling it out, and being rewarded at the ballot box accordingly.
I really am not. On the PM and economic competence figures, the Conservatives should be walking this. But they've spent the last 5 years allowing others to paint their prejudices onto them, and being complacent with their natural supporters.
My big mistake is that I assumed the Labour poll ratings would catch up (or, more accurately, catch down) with the poor PM and economic competence figures. They haven't because the Labour brand is still strong enough for voters to pick them on values. Or strong enough to hold them enough seats to 'win', if you like.
Interesting to see Cable on manoeuvres, arguing strongly against a 2017 EU referendum (and hence, implicitly, against a Con/LD coalition).
Thought for the day:
Would the LibDems be won round to a 2017 referendum if the EU were not the only question on the ballot paper? One question for the right of the coalition ("Do you want to leave the EU?") and one for the left?
STV on the same ballot paper?
Exactly.
And I suspect Cameron would like it as a way of confusing the Out campaign.
I think Clegg would be up for an EU referendum if push came to shove. He'd be gambling, almost certainly correctly, that we'd vote to stay in. UKIP are afraid of the 2017 referendum - they know we'd vote the wrong way and knacker their USP for at least a decade.
If I were a UKIP supporter I would be looking at the SNP and be very enthusiastic about losing a 2017 EU referendum. If OUT gets one-third of the vote and UKIP can get that third of the vote to rally around their party in the way the 45% are rallying around the SNP then they would be well on to winning the next general election.
The success of the SNP in rallying the 45% is to do with the emotive power of nationalism and the dream of independence. I doubt that EU membership has comparable connotations - it's a much more pragmatic issue I would have thought.
Strange but in the marginal I have been working in the Labour vote has hardened in the last few days, cannot put my finger on why to be honest or why people leave it to the last few days. Obviously could only be this seat.
Basil has gone to ground?
Basil has been watching these last polls come in with utter dread. Squirrels for Cameron are in turmoil. Tissue shares had a dead cat bounce yesterday and the number of unemployed laptop cleaners have hit record levels. PB Hodges.................Premier Red Ed is coming :-)
Greens in Bristol West are enthusiastic on the surface, but the campaign literature is too narrowly focused on 20-30 age group without kids. If they have profiled the seat it wouldn't be full of a catch all leftist programme which applies to anywhere. Stunts with rickshaws might be good for the TV but no good at winning over voters with families. Given that Bristol has high tech firms - Airbus, Rolls Royce, GKN, BAe, - playing with toy bikes isn't a substitute for damaging profit earning firms with their policies.
Bennett should go, and the Greens need to focus on something a bit more credible than a bunch of 70s throwbacks.
I'm looking forward to the "Did you stay up for Farage?" moments on Friday morning.
I plan to see Farage get in by around 5%.
As I'm on Cons +6.5% (thanks isam) *and* UKIP 2 or more seats, that would suit me well :-)
I think he's a sort of Anthony Wedgwood-Benn of the right and that this will harm him. His party is basically the most charmless element of the 1980s Tory party, from which the actual Tory party has been trying to distance itself for about 25 years. Lots of reasons to go out and oppose him.
It does look like close but no cigar for the Conservatives.
Not sure I agree with that. Tory most seats but EICIPM will be disappointing to be sure but a cigar of kinds.
It would mean a very weak and crap PM with an invigorated Tory party starting just a few dozen seats away from a majority rather than starting 116 seats behind a majority like the last Parliament we were in opposition.
If we can get 35% this time and most seats but go into opposition, it won't take an especially big swing to get back into government - or even win an overall majority.
There's a big difference between EICIPM with the Tories in the lead in seats and votes, or EICIPM with a Labour lead in seats or votes. Though fingers crossed EMWNBPM.
Sweet Jesu. Polls converging on the slenderest of Tory leads: 1%-2%.
This does look like EICIPM now, if the polls are true.
4.1% swing in England and Wales.
Most of which us concentrated in the North and the South where it is generally wasted.
I think the Conservatives will do about 1% better, in Con/Lab marginals, than the overall swing in England and Wales, due to first time incumbency.
Which means the swing in the Midlands is or will be close to negligible.. Sherwood hold
Absolutely no chance of the Tories holding Sherwood. I'm from that part of the world originally and the big story has been the last remaining colliery (Thoresby) closing. Loads of well paid jobs disappearing, wont do the Tory incumbent any favours. Solid LAB Gain.
From Nats brownshirting around Glasgow to lefties writing "Tory Whore" on Tory cars to the anti-Semitic thuggery of Respect, something quite sad has happened to UK politics, and its happened quite suddenly.
You neglected to mention the Kipper who wants to 'put a bullet between the eyes' of his opponent.
A better fit would be the kipper who was beaten up for putting a UKIP sign outside his house.
I can't remember an election where all THREE party leaders have looked as vulnerable to post election manouvrings.
273-272-24 should be a corker for knife watchers.
Will Bennett and Farage survive as well? The changes at the top could be across the board.
I don't really see any "triggers" for Bennett - 3rd place or lower in all of Norwich South, Sheffield Central, Bristol West and losing Pavilion perhaps.
The members, in their wisdom, re-elected Bennett (to be fair to the members she was unopposed) last September. We are stuck with, I mean, we will enjoy the benefit of her leadership until September 2016 when I predict she will stand down.
Greens ought to merge the E&W and Scot parties and put Patrick H in charge. 10 times better than Nat.
That Cable has come out so publicly to speak out against a 2017 EU In-Out referendum, is telling - just how many LDs has Clegg agreed his redlines with exactly? He'll need senior colleagues on his side at the very least - and I don't just mean Alexander and Laws, either.
I can't remember an election where all THREE party leaders have looked as vulnerable to post election manouvrings.
273-272-24 should be a corker for knife watchers.
Will Bennett and Farage survive as well? The changes at the top could be across the board.
I don't really see any "triggers" for Bennett - 3rd place or lower in all of Norwich South, Sheffield Central, Bristol West and losing Pavilion perhaps.
The members, in their wisdom, re-elected Bennett (to be fair to the members she was unopposed) last September. We are stuck with, I mean, we will enjoy the benefit of her leadership until September 2016 when I predict she will stand down.
Greens ought to merge the E&W and Scot parties and put Patrick H in charge. 10 times better than Nat.
I think merging those parties would be somewhat going against the constitutional tide!
Besides you could probably throw a dart at the GPEW membership list and come up with a better leader. I can be smug about it - I consistently voted against having a leader!
Joe Twyman makes a very astute point, which has a bearing on who might be PM in an inconclusive result:
[If Cameron succeeds in negotiating a deal with the LibDems], we could be left with both Con/LibDem and Lab/SNP blocs close in terms of seats although still short of the 326 (or even 323) needed for a majority, but with the Conservatives able to claim a points victory by virtue of being the single party having more votes and seats. Crucially they will also have a formal agreement binding them – something Lab/SNP would lack, if Miliband is to be believed.
Interesting to see Cable on manoeuvres, arguing strongly against a 2017 EU referendum (and hence, implicitly, against a Con/LD coalition).
Thought for the day:
Would the LibDems be won round to a 2017 referendum if the EU were not the only question on the ballot paper? One question for the right of the coalition ("Do you want to leave the EU?") and one for the left?
STV on the same ballot paper?
Exactly.
And I suspect Cameron would like it as a way of confusing the Out campaign.
I think Clegg would be up for an EU referendum if push came to shove. He'd be gambling, almost certainly correctly, that we'd vote to stay in. UKIP are afraid of the 2017 referendum - they know we'd vote the wrong way and knacker their USP for at least a decade.
If I were a UKIP supporter I would be looking at the SNP and be very enthusiastic about losing a 2017 EU referendum. If OUT gets one-third of the vote and UKIP can get that third of the vote to rally around their party in the way the 45% are rallying around the SNP then they would be well on to winning the next general election.
Lets not forget the SNP aren't the only party this Parliament to get a referendum on their main cause. The Lib Dems got (and lost) a referendum on voting reform that has always been their cause celebre and how much has that helped them?
Taking a coffee break between a zillion phone calls, so an anecdote for amusement. Chap on my list of people who told canvassers they "liked Palmer but not Labour" said he'd always voted Tory, but, well, at age 60 he'd never, ever done anything *radical*, so just this once he'd vote Labour and see how he felt.
Eat your heart out, SeanT - some people know how to live exciting lives.
One of the 389 down! Good luck to you tomorrow, sounds like you could be in with a chance in a very close race! Do we have any other Parliamentary candidates on here?
Yes - but minor party (Pirate), so not sure it counts (and I post somewhat infrequently...)
You will be pleased to know that Pirate even have your own colour on this battleground board, ahead of Respect, no less!
Comments
There is always the old lady who wants to keep you talking on the doorstep for hours on the vague thought she might support your candidate, she then turns out to be a member of the local LDs who just wants to stop you talking to real undecided voters
@JGForsyth: Another very close poll: Tories 35%, Labour 34% with @OpiniumResearch Ukip on 12%, Lib Dems on 8% and Greens on 6%
"The first woman to be raped in space has probably already been born."
No - all the polls are like that now.
This does look like EICIPM now, if the polls are true.
http://ourinsight.opinium.co.uk/survey-results/political-polling-4th-may-2015
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/05/06/election-battlegrounds-watch/
Is Vince doomed?
Kezia Dugdale's opening question at FMQs is "what happened after the 2010 election".
Reponse - Scotland voted Labour and got Tory.
What a fool Kezia is. Utterly insane.
(Oh and Vauxhall for whoever asked which seat)
It does look like close but no cigar for the Conservatives.
And yes, EICIPM. And he'll certainly be crap with that result
Tony Blair's extraordinary net worth certainly raises eyebrows.
I'll humour you and pretend you had a serious point. The old Yeltsin era oligarchs looted far more and transferred the funds to the West and Israel with active support or little criticism from the West. I guess that would be the main issue then that this has been stopped? Ultimately when your GDP per capita rises by a factor you are given a lot of leeway, people tend to be pragmatic. For me I don't consider it my concern, except for how we as a country can also benefit through expanding trade.
Oh.. Wait a minute.
The South is where the swing to Lab is in almost every other poll.
Labour is in a great position because it spent 13 years expanding relentlessly the tentacles of the state so millions now have a vested interest in putting it into power.
Though it hasn't helped much in Scotland, although of course it is now the SNP doling it out, and being rewarded at the ballot box accordingly.
Hope you get to keep your deposit.
IF Labour can get some of those back it will represent a very strong result but the first targets must be the 2010 losses plus Enfield North plus whatever they can get from the LDs.
Sherwood hold
Just think. In 48 hours we will all be on here, telling each other why the result was exactly what we had thought all along.
My big mistake is that I assumed the Labour poll ratings would catch up (or, more accurately, catch down) with the poor PM and economic competence figures. They haven't because the Labour brand is still strong enough for voters to pick them on values. Or strong enough to hold them enough seats to 'win', if you like.
Bennett should go, and the Greens need to focus on something a bit more credible than a bunch of 70s throwbacks.
The big three final phones to come - ICM imminent and MORI and Ashcroft tomorrow AM
It would mean a very weak and crap PM with an invigorated Tory party starting just a few dozen seats away from a majority rather than starting 116 seats behind a majority like the last Parliament we were in opposition.
If we can get 35% this time and most seats but go into opposition, it won't take an especially big swing to get back into government - or even win an overall majority.
There's a big difference between EICIPM with the Tories in the lead in seats and votes, or EICIPM with a Labour lead in seats or votes. Though fingers crossed EMWNBPM.
http://www.bournemouthecho.co.uk/news/12932095.UKIP_supporter__kicked_by_group_of_men__over_election_sign_outside_his_house/
Or the UKIP shops that have been vandalised.
I'm not holding my breath.
There was an ICM *Gold Standard* poll which put the Tories on 34% and LD on 32%.
"What about the SNP? Will they be prepared to swear allegiance to the Crown? I'm using a the Crown as a metonymic construct there."
Someone better tell Stuie and Angus.
Besides you could probably throw a dart at the GPEW membership list and come up with a better leader. I can be smug about it - I consistently voted against having a leader!
And they lecture Labour on economic mismanagement....
[If Cameron succeeds in negotiating a deal with the LibDems], we could be left with both Con/LibDem and Lab/SNP blocs close in terms of seats although still short of the 326 (or even 323) needed for a majority, but with the Conservatives able to claim a points victory by virtue of being the single party having more votes and seats. Crucially they will also have a formal agreement binding them – something Lab/SNP would lack, if Miliband is to be believed.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11475225/date-and-time.htmlV
Including everyone = Lab 0.2% lead (14 polls so far)
YG only = 0.1% Lab lead (5 polls)
Non-YG = 0.2% Lab lead (9 polls)
Online-only = 0.4% Lab lead (12 polls)
Phone-only = 2.3% CON lead (caveat, but there's only been Ashcroft and ComRes!)
http://www.repubblica.it/static/speciale/2015/elezioni/regno_unito_gran_bretagna/confronto.html