Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » GE2015 Day Minus 1 – the latest polling/betting round-up

124678

Comments

  • acf2310acf2310 Posts: 141
    dr_spyn said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I can't remember an election where all THREE party leaders have looked as vulnerable to post election manouvrings.

    273-272-24 should be a corker for knife watchers.

    Will Bennett and Farage survive as well? The changes at the top could be across the board.
    Surely Bennett will go. She's missed a remarkable opportunity for the Greens to become a major party.

  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822

    That works both ways though - the next Parliament could fritter money away left, right and centre trying to maintain political favour and adopt weak responses to 'events'.

    That's exactly what a weak minority government will do, and why it would be such a disaster. They'll have no choice but to buy support from whichever vested interest is bleating most loudly (mostly it will be the SNP).
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    tessyC said:

    Exciting final Welsh poll...

    Labour 39% (-1%)
    Conservative 25% (-1%)
    Plaid Cymru 13% (+1%)
    UKIP 12% (-1%)
    Liberal Democrats 8% (+2%)
    Greens 2% (-2%)

    http://www.itv.com/news/wales/update/2015-05-06/poll-shows-welsh-labour-lead-still-14/

    Earth shattering.......

    No major boost for Plaid, despite the extra coverage during this campaign.
  • DanielDaniel Posts: 160

    YouGov/ITV (Wales): LAB 39% (-1%) CON 25% (-1%) PC 13% (+1%) UKIP 12% (-1%) LD 8% (+2%) GREEN 2% (-2%)

    — Daniel Furr (@DanielFurrUK) May 6, 2015
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533

    Compared to 2010

    Lab +3
    Con -1
    Plaid +2
    UKIP +10
    LD -12
    Green +1.5

    tessyC said:

    Exciting final Welsh poll...

    Labour 39% (-1%)
    Conservative 25% (-1%)
    Plaid Cymru 13% (+1%)
    UKIP 12% (-1%)
    Liberal Democrats 8% (+2%)
    Greens 2% (-2%)

    http://www.itv.com/news/wales/update/2015-05-06/poll-shows-welsh-labour-lead-still-14/

    Earth shattering.......

    On the face of it seems weird UKIP picking up the Lib Dem vote....I presume something more complex is going on than that.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    So Labour aren't doing well enough in Wales, not doing anything in Scotland, not doing enough in the midlands. They are doing enough in the South and London, but where's the low hanging fruit?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,036

    AndyJS said:



    When a voter says they're going to vote a certain way, how do you know they're actually going to vote that way, and haven't just said they will to get rid of the person asking the question? I'm always agreeing with survey people on the phone in the hope it'll cut short the call.

    You don't. (The anecdote was just for amusement.) In general I think one can have a reasonable guess from the choice of words, but obviously one can never be sure.

    Of more interest, I was phoned yesterday by Populus who were doing a survey of people who had voted by post already. When they heard I'd decided to vote in person, they asked if they could call me back tomorrow after I'd voted to find out what I'd decided. Presumably this is two halves of an exit poll.

    Ha, did they not realise that you would be voting for yourself?
  • JGCJGC Posts: 64
    AndyJS said:

    Taking a coffee break between a zillion phone calls, so an anecdote for amusement. Chap on my list of people who told canvassers they "liked Palmer but not Labour" said he'd always voted Tory, but, well, at age 60 he'd never, ever done anything *radical*, so just this once he'd vote Labour and see how he felt.

    Eat your heart out, SeanT - some people know how to live exciting lives.

    When a voter says they're going to vote a certain way, how do you know they're actually going to vote that way, and haven't just said they will to get rid of the person asking the question? I'm always agreeing with survey people on the phone in the hope it'll cut short the call.
    You dont know however after many years of door knocking experience you do develop some ability at working whether people just want to get rid of you. How do the phone pollsters know if people are telling them what they really think.

    There is always the old lady who wants to keep you talking on the doorstep for hours on the vague thought she might support your candidate, she then turns out to be a member of the local LDs who just wants to stop you talking to real undecided voters :)
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474

    Taking a coffee break between a zillion phone calls, so an anecdote for amusement. Chap on my list of people who told canvassers they "liked Palmer but not Labour" said he'd always voted Tory, but, well, at age 60 he'd never, ever done anything *radical*, so just this once he'd vote Labour and see how he felt.

    Eat your heart out, SeanT - some people know how to live exciting lives.

    'Taking a coffee break' - presumably that's a euphemism for quaffing champagne from a magnum of Bollinger.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Compared to 2010

    Lab +3
    Con -1
    Plaid +2
    UKIP +10
    LD -12
    Green +1.5

    tessyC said:

    Exciting final Welsh poll...

    Labour 39% (-1%)
    Conservative 25% (-1%)
    Plaid Cymru 13% (+1%)
    UKIP 12% (-1%)
    Liberal Democrats 8% (+2%)
    Greens 2% (-2%)

    http://www.itv.com/news/wales/update/2015-05-06/poll-shows-welsh-labour-lead-still-14/

    Earth shattering.......

    On the face of it seems weird UKIP picking up the Lib Dem vote....I presume something more complex is going on than that.
    Not really. Protest votes.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    New?

    @JGForsyth: Another very close poll: Tories 35%, Labour 34% with @OpiniumResearch Ukip on 12%, Lib Dems on 8% and Greens on 6%
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    So Labour aren't doing well enough in Wales, not doing anything in Scotland, not doing enough in the midlands. They are doing enough in the South and London, but where's the low hanging fruit?

    North West, Midlands and Yorkshire I believe.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,712
    Sean_F said:

    Plato said:
    Plato said:
    Not for the first time with the Guardian, it's hard to tell if this is a parody or not.
    It isn't:

    "The first woman to be raped in space has probably already been born."
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,656
    BTW: Grexit may be coming very very shortly...
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822

    So is everyone agreed that the exit poll is going to be bollocks, or can we put some confidence intervals around it?

    It won't be bollocks, it will probably be pretty good. However, I wouldn't rely on it being quite so extraordinarily accurate as last time, especially as regards Scotland.
    I'm thinking.. within +/- 15 seats for the big two parties, within +/- 5 seats for the SNP and not much decisive about UKIP, and neither for the Lib Dems.

    What do you think?
    My hunch is that they'll be closer on the Conservatives than that, but the Labour figure has the additional uncertainty of being the mirror image of the SNP uncertainty.
  • AllyPally_RobAllyPally_Rob Posts: 605

    So Labour aren't doing well enough in Wales, not doing anything in Scotland, not doing enough in the midlands. They are doing enough in the South and London, but where's the low hanging fruit?

    Labour are doing fine in Wales, they're 3 points up on 2010, which given they've been running the Assembly for 16 years isn't bad going.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    Scott_P said:

    New?

    @JGForsyth: Another very close poll: Tories 35%, Labour 34% with @OpiniumResearch Ukip on 12%, Lib Dems on 8% and Greens on 6%

    "New?"

    No - all the polls are like that now. :smiley:

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,712
    Sweet Jesu. Polls converging on the slenderest of Tory leads: 1%-2%.

    This does look like EICIPM now, if the polls are true.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417
    edited May 2015
    dr_spyn said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I can't remember an election where all THREE party leaders have looked as vulnerable to post election manouvrings.

    273-272-24 should be a corker for knife watchers.

    Will Bennett and Farage survive as well? The changes at the top could be across the board.
    I don't really see any "triggers" for Bennett - 3rd place or lower in all of Norwich South, Sheffield Central, Bristol West and losing Pavilion perhaps.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,150
    Scott_P said:

    New?

    @JGForsyth: Another very close poll: Tories 35%, Labour 34% with @OpiniumResearch Ukip on 12%, Lib Dems on 8% and Greens on 6%

    Seems to be, last Opinium was Saturday.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited May 2015
    Scott_P said:

    New?

    @JGForsyth: Another very close poll: Tories 35%, Labour 34% with @OpiniumResearch Ukip on 12%, Lib Dems on 8% and Greens on 6%

    Yes, final poll.

    http://ourinsight.opinium.co.uk/survey-results/political-polling-4th-may-2015
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,712

    So Labour aren't doing well enough in Wales, not doing anything in Scotland, not doing enough in the midlands. They are doing enough in the South and London, but where's the low hanging fruit?

    Labour are doing fine in Wales, they're 3 points up on 2010, which given they've been running the Assembly for 16 years isn't bad going.
    Aside from UKIP and LD switch, Wales looks all like MoE stuff to me.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,680
    SNP has moved down slightly on SPIN. And LDs have moved up a bit. Given the latest polls, I think LDs are going to surprise on the upside. I now have them at 30.
  • ItwasriggedItwasrigged Posts: 154
    Sean_F said:

    Plato said:
    Plato said:
    Not for the first time with the Guardian, it's hard to tell if this is a parody or not.
    Indy For Mars :)
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,782
    Sandpit said:

    Taking a coffee break between a zillion phone calls, so an anecdote for amusement. Chap on my list of people who told canvassers they "liked Palmer but not Labour" said he'd always voted Tory, but, well, at age 60 he'd never, ever done anything *radical*, so just this once he'd vote Labour and see how he felt.

    Eat your heart out, SeanT - some people know how to live exciting lives.

    One of the 389 down! Good luck to you tomorrow, sounds like you could be in with a chance in a very close race!
    Do we have any other Parliamentary candidates on here?
    Yes - but minor party (Pirate), so not sure it counts (and I post somewhat infrequently...)
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    rcs1000 said:

    BTW: Grexit may be coming very very shortly...

    A nice welcome present for Red.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,656

    Sean_F said:

    Plato said:
    Plato said:
    Not for the first time with the Guardian, it's hard to tell if this is a parody or not.
    It isn't:

    "The first woman to be raped in space has probably already been born."
    I know I shouldn't laugh...
  • madasafishmadasafish Posts: 659

    rcs1000 said:

    SeanT said:

    Yep, them too. Our politics has become coarser and nastier, tinged with race-baiting, race hatred and ugly Nationalism. It's not pretty.

    I reckon it began with Labour demonising Tories - baby eaters. That brought the discourse of hatred into British politics. And now it has spread. If you dehumanise the enemy it is OK to abuse him, or even assault him, as Hitler knew well.

    The vast majority of politicians - in the UK at least - are hard working and genuinely care about the future of this country.

    Ed Miliband genuinely believes that what he does will be best for the people of the UK.
    David Cameron, Nigel Farage, Nick Clegg, Nicola Sturgeon, etc. etc.: all believe passionately in improving people's lives.

    The only disagreement is on the exact vision of Jerusalem, and how we get there.

    When we demonise and doubt the sincerity of people's convictions, we drag discourse down, and we drag politics down, and we drag Britain down.

    We are incredibly lucky to live in the UK, where the worst political corruption has been caused by (now discovered) politcal correctness and the worst theft by a political was a duck house claimed on expenses. Far better to be here than in Russia where it is alleged that Putin has amassed a $200bn fortune off the back of his countrymen. And how lucky are we to have a press that reveals our leaders foibles.

    The UK is one of the - if not the - greatest country in the world, and we should celebrate that and recognise that.
    Admirable sentiment but in my opinion utterly untrue. None of these people are evil, certainly. But they make decisions based upon a set of factors of which the general public have no understanding. For example, the influence the USA weilds on our foreign policy (and many other policies) would be completely unfathomable to the person on the street. It doesn't make Cameron wicked that he follows this agenda - although it costs British lives. To do otherwise would be to take a huge personal risk. But it does mean that it will be better when he goes and someone better able to withstand the heat gets their turn in the kitchen.
    You mean Cameron invased Afghanistan and Iraq because the US told him to do so?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,712
    chestnut said:

    Scott_P said:

    New?

    @JGForsyth: Another very close poll: Tories 35%, Labour 34% with @OpiniumResearch Ukip on 12%, Lib Dems on 8% and Greens on 6%

    Yes, final poll.

    http://ourinsight.opinium.co.uk/survey-results/political-polling-4th-may-2015
    Labour must be thanking their lucky stars for the enduring strength and power of their brand, otherwise they well and truly would be stuffed.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417
    rcs1000 said:

    BTW: Grexit may be coming very very shortly...

    I forsee rises in the Dollar...
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    odd that there is no polling on Twickenham.

    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/05/06/election-battlegrounds-watch/

    Is Vince doomed?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,036

    Sean_F said:

    Plato said:
    Plato said:
    Not for the first time with the Guardian, it's hard to tell if this is a parody or not.
    It isn't:

    "The first woman to be raped in space has probably already been born."
    Really..? Where do they get this drivel, and why the hell do they publish it?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,968
    Mr. 1000, hours? Days?
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Lennon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Taking a coffee break between a zillion phone calls, so an anecdote for amusement. Chap on my list of people who told canvassers they "liked Palmer but not Labour" said he'd always voted Tory, but, well, at age 60 he'd never, ever done anything *radical*, so just this once he'd vote Labour and see how he felt.

    Eat your heart out, SeanT - some people know how to live exciting lives.

    One of the 389 down! Good luck to you tomorrow, sounds like you could be in with a chance in a very close race!
    Do we have any other Parliamentary candidates on here?
    Yes - but minor party (Pirate), so not sure it counts (and I post somewhat infrequently...)
    It's the same £500 it costs everyone else so of course it counts!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417
    Barnesian said:

    SNP has moved down slightly on SPIN. And LDs have moved up a bit. Given the latest polls, I think LDs are going to surprise on the upside. I now have them at 30.

    What, with 8 and 9% ?!
  • DanielDaniel Posts: 160
    Seriously, could Greens finish above LDs? only 2 points behind.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    edited May 2015
    Lennon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Taking a coffee break between a zillion phone calls, so an anecdote for amusement. Chap on my list of people who told canvassers they "liked Palmer but not Labour" said he'd always voted Tory, but, well, at age 60 he'd never, ever done anything *radical*, so just this once he'd vote Labour and see how he felt.

    Eat your heart out, SeanT - some people know how to live exciting lives.

    One of the 389 down! Good luck to you tomorrow, sounds like you could be in with a chance in a very close race!
    Do we have any other Parliamentary candidates on here?
    Yes - but minor party (Pirate), so not sure it counts (and I post somewhat infrequently...)
    Good luck! Where are you running if you don't mind me asking?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,036
    rcs1000 said:

    BTW: Grexit may be coming very very shortly...

    That could add some spice to the post-election negotiations, as Greece did 5 years ago.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,150
    chestnut said:

    Scott_P said:

    New?

    @JGForsyth: Another very close poll: Tories 35%, Labour 34% with @OpiniumResearch Ukip on 12%, Lib Dems on 8% and Greens on 6%

    Yes, final poll.

    http://ourinsight.opinium.co.uk/survey-results/political-polling-4th-may-2015
    It's already added to Wiki :)
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Pulpstar said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I can't remember an election where all THREE party leaders have looked as vulnerable to post election manouvrings.

    273-272-24 should be a corker for knife watchers.

    Will Bennett and Farage survive as well? The changes at the top could be across the board.
    I don't really see any "triggers" for Bennett - 3rd place or lower in all of Norwich South, Sheffield Central, Bristol West and losing Pavilion perhaps.
    The members, in their wisdom, re-elected Bennett (to be fair to the members she was unopposed) last September. We are stuck with, I mean, we will enjoy the benefit of her leadership until September 2016 when I predict she will stand down.

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,036
    Daniel said:

    Seriously, could Greens finish above LDs? only 2 points behind.

    But not standing in half as many seats as the LDs though.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,150
    edited May 2015
    Client can't be The Observer? It's Wednesday!?
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    The press association only mentioned a half dozen counts starting on the Friday (?) what's this talk of Kent doing the same?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,546

    Sweet Jesu. Polls converging on the slenderest of Tory leads: 1%-2%.

    This does look like EICIPM now, if the polls are true.

    4.1% swing in England and Wales.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    INSANITY.

    Kezia Dugdale's opening question at FMQs is "what happened after the 2010 election".

    Reponse - Scotland voted Labour and got Tory.

    What a fool Kezia is. Utterly insane.
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,782
    Neil said:

    Lennon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Taking a coffee break between a zillion phone calls, so an anecdote for amusement. Chap on my list of people who told canvassers they "liked Palmer but not Labour" said he'd always voted Tory, but, well, at age 60 he'd never, ever done anything *radical*, so just this once he'd vote Labour and see how he felt.

    Eat your heart out, SeanT - some people know how to live exciting lives.

    One of the 389 down! Good luck to you tomorrow, sounds like you could be in with a chance in a very close race!
    Do we have any other Parliamentary candidates on here?
    Yes - but minor party (Pirate), so not sure it counts (and I post somewhat infrequently...)
    It's the same £500 it costs everyone else so of course it counts!
    I meant in terms of gracing PB with my presence in the way that Nick does! ;-)

    (Oh and Vauxhall for whoever asked which seat)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591

    SeanT said:

    Neil said:

    SeanT said:

    watford30 said:

    SeanT said:

    "“Get out, you fucking Jew,” he shouts. I am being throttled as around ten Asian men surround me." The UK elex, 2015.

    http://www.politico.eu/article/galloway-bradford-elections-uk-ge2015/

    From Nats brownshirting around Glasgow to lefties writing "Tory Whore" on Tory cars to the anti-Semitic thuggery of Respect, something quite sad has happened to UK politics, and its happened quite suddenly.

    You neglected to mention the Kipper who wants to 'put a bullet between the eyes' of his opponent.
    Yep, them too. Our politics has become coarser and nastier, tinged with race-baiting, race hatred and ugly Nationalism. It's not pretty.

    I reckon it began with Labour demonising Tories - baby eaters. That brought the discourse of hatred into British politics. And now it has spread. If you dehumanise the enemy it is OK to abuse him, or even assault him, as Hitler knew well.
    Somehow I knew you'd manage to pin the blame on lefties.


    Actually I think the Tories must take some blame as well. Thatcher describing striking miners as "the enemy within" was a low point for the Tory party.

    However it is pretty much undeniable that the relentless discourse of dehumanising hatred mainly comes from the Left, directed at Tories for decades now - evil bankers, baby eaters, posh scum destroying the NHS etc etc. Nye Bevan called Tories "vermin" back in the 40s.

    As long as this rhetoric was restricted to a few loopier lefties it was OK, but it has infected mainstream Labour discourse, and has - as I say - now spread far and wide to other parties. Indeed it is being turned ON Labour by the Nats.

    It needs to stop.
    It is the end of days, SeanT calls for more civility, and less insults in the world!

    (I do agree with you though)
    Too many insults just dilutes the quality. I'm in favour of high quality insults myself.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Is it bad that I'm now breathing sighs of relief at the Tories being ahead by "only" 1%?
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371

    Sweet Jesu. Polls converging on the slenderest of Tory leads: 1%-2%.

    This does look like EICIPM now, if the polls are true.

    Welcome to the club, we have been waiting for you for some time.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,546

    It does look like close but no cigar for the Conservatives.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,033
    Tories nudging 35% at the top end. Still think we'll end up with a 35% tory - 32% lab vote.

    And yes, EICIPM. And he'll certainly be crap with that result
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited May 2015
    Sean_F said:


    It does look like close but no cigar for the Conservatives.

    What's your prediction? You are usually pretty reliable!
  • FalseFlagFalseFlag Posts: 1,801
    rcs1000 said:

    SeanT said:

    Yep, them too. Our politics has become coarser and nastier, tinged with race-baiting, race hatred and ugly Nationalism. It's not pretty.

    I reckon it began with Labour demonising Tories - baby eaters. That brought the discourse of hatred into British politics. And now it has spread. If you dehumanise the enemy it is OK to abuse him, or even assault him, as Hitler knew well.

    The vast majority of politicians - in the UK at least - are hard working and genuinely care about the future of this country.

    Ed Miliband genuinely believes that what he does will be best for the people of the UK.
    David Cameron, Nigel Farage, Nick Clegg, Nicola Sturgeon, etc. etc.: all believe passionately in improving people's lives.

    The only disagreement is on the exact vision of Jerusalem, and how we get there.

    When we demonise and doubt the sincerity of people's convictions, we drag discourse down, and we drag politics down, and we drag Britain down.

    We are incredibly lucky to live in the UK, where the worst political corruption has been caused by (now discovered) politcal correctness and the worst theft by a political was a duck house claimed on expenses. Far better to be here than in Russia where it is alleged that Putin has amassed a $200bn fortune off the back of his countrymen. And how lucky are we to have a press that reveals our leaders foibles.

    The UK is one of the - if not the - greatest country in the world, and we should celebrate that and recognise that.
    Funny the media never seems to mention Cameron's expenses.

    Tony Blair's extraordinary net worth certainly raises eyebrows.

    I'll humour you and pretend you had a serious point. The old Yeltsin era oligarchs looted far more and transferred the funds to the West and Israel with active support or little criticism from the West. I guess that would be the main issue then that this has been stopped? Ultimately when your GDP per capita rises by a factor you are given a lot of leeway, people tend to be pragmatic. For me I don't consider it my concern, except for how we as a country can also benefit through expanding trade.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Sean_F said:

    Sweet Jesu. Polls converging on the slenderest of Tory leads: 1%-2%.

    This does look like EICIPM now, if the polls are true.

    4.1% swing in England and Wales.
    Most of which us concentrated in the North and the South where it is generally wasted.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,712
    Thankfully, I've just spent all my savings on a new boiler. So the worst Red can do to me is destroy the value of my house and lose me my job.

    Oh.. Wait a minute.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,712
    Sean_F said:

    Sweet Jesu. Polls converging on the slenderest of Tory leads: 1%-2%.

    This does look like EICIPM now, if the polls are true.

    4.1% swing in England and Wales.
    Labour look quite high to me in E&W there at 35%, and also in Scotland at 30%. Big subsample warning for the latter, though.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Sandpit said:

    Daniel said:

    Seriously, could Greens finish above LDs? only 2 points behind.

    But not standing in half as many seats as the LDs though.
    Standing in nearly 90% of seats!

  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Patrick said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Good afternoon.

    Interesting to see Cable on manoeuvres, arguing strongly against a 2017 EU referendum (and hence, implicitly, against a Con/LD coalition).

    Thought for the day:

    Would the LibDems be won round to a 2017 referendum if the EU were not the only question on the ballot paper? One question for the right of the coalition ("Do you want to leave the EU?") and one for the left?

    STV on the same ballot paper?

    Exactly.

    And I suspect Cameron would like it as a way of confusing the Out campaign.
    I think Clegg would be up for an EU referendum if push came to shove. He'd be gambling, almost certainly correctly, that we'd vote to stay in. UKIP are afraid of the 2017 referendum - they know we'd vote the wrong way and knacker their USP for at least a decade.
    If I were a UKIP supporter I would be looking at the SNP and be very enthusiastic about losing a 2017 EU referendum. If OUT gets one-third of the vote and UKIP can get that third of the vote to rally around their party in the way the 45% are rallying around the SNP then they would be well on to winning the next general election.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    There are only a handful of MPs I would stay up for to watch them lose. Cable and Balls are two of the top spot holders.
    dr_spyn said:

    odd that there is no polling on Twickenham.

    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/05/06/election-battlegrounds-watch/

    Is Vince doomed?

  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    chestnut said:

    Scott_P said:

    New?

    @JGForsyth: Another very close poll: Tories 35%, Labour 34% with @OpiniumResearch Ukip on 12%, Lib Dems on 8% and Greens on 6%

    Yes, final poll.

    http://ourinsight.opinium.co.uk/survey-results/political-polling-4th-may-2015
    Labour must be thanking their lucky stars for the enduring strength and power of their brand, otherwise they well and truly would be stuffed.
    Opinium have a 4.2% Con-Lab swing in England over their last half dozen polls. Lab-Con swing in Wales of 1.8%.

    The South is where the swing to Lab is in almost every other poll.
  • Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,179

    chestnut said:

    Scott_P said:

    New?

    @JGForsyth: Another very close poll: Tories 35%, Labour 34% with @OpiniumResearch Ukip on 12%, Lib Dems on 8% and Greens on 6%

    Yes, final poll.

    http://ourinsight.opinium.co.uk/survey-results/political-polling-4th-may-2015
    Labour must be thanking their lucky stars for the enduring strength and power of their brand, otherwise they well and truly would be stuffed.
    I assume you're being sarcastic!

    Labour is in a great position because it spent 13 years expanding relentlessly the tentacles of the state so millions now have a vested interest in putting it into power.

    Though it hasn't helped much in Scotland, although of course it is now the SNP doling it out, and being rewarded at the ballot box accordingly.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,036
    Lennon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Taking a coffee break between a zillion phone calls, so an anecdote for amusement. Chap on my list of people who told canvassers they "liked Palmer but not Labour" said he'd always voted Tory, but, well, at age 60 he'd never, ever done anything *radical*, so just this once he'd vote Labour and see how he felt.

    Eat your heart out, SeanT - some people know how to live exciting lives.

    One of the 389 down! Good luck to you tomorrow, sounds like you could be in with a chance in a very close race!
    Do we have any other Parliamentary candidates on here?
    Yes - but minor party (Pirate), so not sure it counts (and I post somewhat infrequently...)
    Good luck! :D
    Hope you get to keep your deposit.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,546
    edited May 2015
    Danny565 said:

    Sean_F said:


    It does look like close but no cigar for the Conservatives.

    What's your prediction? You are usually pretty reliable!
    I'd go for the Conservatives being ahead on votes and seats, by 10-20, but not enough to form a government.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,150
    Opinium: another online pollster now showing a Blue lead, albeit slender!
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    Patrick said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Good afternoon.

    Interesting to see Cable on manoeuvres, arguing strongly against a 2017 EU referendum (and hence, implicitly, against a Con/LD coalition).

    Thought for the day:

    Would the LibDems be won round to a 2017 referendum if the EU were not the only question on the ballot paper? One question for the right of the coalition ("Do you want to leave the EU?") and one for the left?

    STV on the same ballot paper?

    Exactly.

    And I suspect Cameron would like it as a way of confusing the Out campaign.
    I think Clegg would be up for an EU referendum if push came to shove. He'd be gambling, almost certainly correctly, that we'd vote to stay in. UKIP are afraid of the 2017 referendum - they know we'd vote the wrong way and knacker their USP for at least a decade.
    If I were a UKIP supporter I would be looking at the SNP and be very enthusiastic about losing a 2017 EU referendum. If OUT gets one-third of the vote and UKIP can get that third of the vote to rally around their party in the way the 45% are rallying around the SNP then they would be well on to winning the next general election.
    A shame for the Lib Dems that they didnt manage to get everyone who voted for AV to rally around them now!

  • FalseFlagFalseFlag Posts: 1,801

    chestnut said:

    Scott_P said:

    New?

    @JGForsyth: Another very close poll: Tories 35%, Labour 34% with @OpiniumResearch Ukip on 12%, Lib Dems on 8% and Greens on 6%

    Yes, final poll.

    http://ourinsight.opinium.co.uk/survey-results/political-polling-4th-may-2015
    Labour must be thanking their lucky stars for the enduring strength and power of their brand, otherwise they well and truly would be stuffed.
    I assume you're being sarcastic!

    Labour is in a great position because it spent 13 years expanding relentlessly the tentacles of the state so millions now have a vested interest in putting it into power.

    Though it hasn't helped much in Scotland, although of course it is now the SNP doling it out, and being rewarded at the ballot box accordingly.
    The governing party wins or loses elections.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,992

    They went to Ilford North on May 3th
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CEGJpawWMAAhYbu.jpg

    Timms was in Harlow on May 2th and April 27th

    On April 26th they went up to East Dunbartonshire...for some mysterious reasons..
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CDgKSL_WoAAVw74.jpg

    Some West Ham activists also did some trips to Ilford North.

    Hodge and Barking CLP traveled to Thurrock yesterday.

    Thanks for that, Andrea, and pretty much what I expected. Clearly, Labour think both Ilford North and Thurrock are in play and the former is one to watch. My view on London is crystallising around the seats Labour lost in 2005.

    IF Labour can get some of those back it will represent a very strong result but the first targets must be the 2010 losses plus Enfield North plus whatever they can get from the LDs.

  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    On Vince Cable, has there been any polling done in his seat? As far as I was aware, Twickenham was not one of the danger seats for the LDs.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417
    Liberal Democrat battles against Labour are far more important in terms of the hung Parliament maths.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    rcs1000 said:

    BTW: Grexit may be coming very very shortly...

    Would this afternoon be possible? It would add a wild card to the election. Eat that pollsters!
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,546

    Sean_F said:

    Sweet Jesu. Polls converging on the slenderest of Tory leads: 1%-2%.

    This does look like EICIPM now, if the polls are true.

    4.1% swing in England and Wales.
    Most of which us concentrated in the North and the South where it is generally wasted.
    I think the Conservatives will do about 1% better, in Con/Lab marginals, than the overall swing in England and Wales, due to first time incumbency.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,978
    @guardian_clark: The pollsters polled: will Cameron or Miliband be the next prime minister? http://t.co/pm4DYCIHHb
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323

    Tories nudging 35% at the top end. Still think we'll end up with a 35% tory - 32% lab vote.

    And yes, EICIPM. And he'll certainly be crap with that result

    35/32 will keep Cameron in Downing Street, at least until another election. A Labour Party polling 32% won't win the 275 seats in England and Wales it needs to form an Lab/SNP coalition.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417

    Sean_F said:

    Sweet Jesu. Polls converging on the slenderest of Tory leads: 1%-2%.

    This does look like EICIPM now, if the polls are true.

    4.1% swing in England and Wales.
    Labour look quite high to me in E&W there at 35%, and also in Scotland at 30%. Big subsample warning for the latter, though.
    SNP downweighted from 126 to 96 in the Scots sample so ye.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264

    Opinium: another online pollster now showing a Blue lead, albeit slender!

    Is there still a difference between online and phone or have they converged into uselessness?
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sweet Jesu. Polls converging on the slenderest of Tory leads: 1%-2%.

    This does look like EICIPM now, if the polls are true.

    4.1% swing in England and Wales.
    Most of which us concentrated in the North and the South where it is generally wasted.
    I think the Conservatives will do about 1% better, in Con/Lab marginals, than the overall swing in England and Wales, due to first time incumbency.
    Which means the swing in the Midlands is or will be close to negligible..
    Sherwood hold
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    Just think. In 48 hours we will all be on here, telling each other why the result was exactly what we had thought all along.

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,712

    chestnut said:

    Scott_P said:

    New?

    @JGForsyth: Another very close poll: Tories 35%, Labour 34% with @OpiniumResearch Ukip on 12%, Lib Dems on 8% and Greens on 6%

    Yes, final poll.

    http://ourinsight.opinium.co.uk/survey-results/political-polling-4th-may-2015
    Labour must be thanking their lucky stars for the enduring strength and power of their brand, otherwise they well and truly would be stuffed.
    I assume you're being sarcastic!

    Labour is in a great position because it spent 13 years expanding relentlessly the tentacles of the state so millions now have a vested interest in putting it into power.

    Though it hasn't helped much in Scotland, although of course it is now the SNP doling it out, and being rewarded at the ballot box accordingly.
    I really am not. On the PM and economic competence figures, the Conservatives should be walking this. But they've spent the last 5 years allowing others to paint their prejudices onto them, and being complacent with their natural supporters.

    My big mistake is that I assumed the Labour poll ratings would catch up (or, more accurately, catch down) with the poor PM and economic competence figures. They haven't because the Labour brand is still strong enough for voters to pick them on values. Or strong enough to hold them enough seats to 'win', if you like.
  • PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,275

    Patrick said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Good afternoon.

    Interesting to see Cable on manoeuvres, arguing strongly against a 2017 EU referendum (and hence, implicitly, against a Con/LD coalition).

    Thought for the day:

    Would the LibDems be won round to a 2017 referendum if the EU were not the only question on the ballot paper? One question for the right of the coalition ("Do you want to leave the EU?") and one for the left?

    STV on the same ballot paper?

    Exactly.

    And I suspect Cameron would like it as a way of confusing the Out campaign.
    I think Clegg would be up for an EU referendum if push came to shove. He'd be gambling, almost certainly correctly, that we'd vote to stay in. UKIP are afraid of the 2017 referendum - they know we'd vote the wrong way and knacker their USP for at least a decade.
    If I were a UKIP supporter I would be looking at the SNP and be very enthusiastic about losing a 2017 EU referendum. If OUT gets one-third of the vote and UKIP can get that third of the vote to rally around their party in the way the 45% are rallying around the SNP then they would be well on to winning the next general election.
    The success of the SNP in rallying the 45% is to do with the emotive power of nationalism and the dream of independence. I doubt that EU membership has comparable connotations - it's a much more pragmatic issue I would have thought.

  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    edited May 2015
    RobD said:

    Strange but in the marginal I have been working in the Labour vote has hardened in the last few days, cannot put my finger on why to be honest or why people leave it to the last few days. Obviously could only be this seat.

    Basil has gone to ground?
    Basil has been watching these last polls come in with utter dread. Squirrels for Cameron are in turmoil. Tissue shares had a dead cat bounce yesterday and the number of unemployed laptop cleaners have hit record levels. PB Hodges.................Premier Red Ed is coming :-)
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Greens in Bristol West are enthusiastic on the surface, but the campaign literature is too narrowly focused on 20-30 age group without kids. If they have profiled the seat it wouldn't be full of a catch all leftist programme which applies to anywhere. Stunts with rickshaws might be good for the TV but no good at winning over voters with families. Given that Bristol has high tech firms - Airbus, Rolls Royce, GKN, BAe, - playing with toy bikes isn't a substitute for damaging profit earning firms with their policies.

    Bennett should go, and the Greens need to focus on something a bit more credible than a bunch of 70s throwbacks.
  • Bond_James_BondBond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939
    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I'm looking forward to the "Did you stay up for Farage?" moments on Friday morning.

    I plan to see Farage get in by around 5%.
    As I'm on Cons +6.5% (thanks isam) *and* UKIP 2 or more seats, that would suit me well :-)
    I think he's a sort of Anthony Wedgwood-Benn of the right and that this will harm him. His party is basically the most charmless element of the 1980s Tory party, from which the actual Tory party has been trying to distance itself for about 25 years. Lots of reasons to go out and oppose him.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Chameleon said:

    Opinium: another online pollster now showing a Blue lead, albeit slender!

    Is there still a difference between online and phone or have they converged into uselessness?
    Phone about 1-2% in con favour.
    The big three final phones to come - ICM imminent and MORI and Ashcroft tomorrow AM
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Sean_F said:


    It does look like close but no cigar for the Conservatives.

    Not sure I agree with that. Tory most seats but EICIPM will be disappointing to be sure but a cigar of kinds.

    It would mean a very weak and crap PM with an invigorated Tory party starting just a few dozen seats away from a majority rather than starting 116 seats behind a majority like the last Parliament we were in opposition.

    If we can get 35% this time and most seats but go into opposition, it won't take an especially big swing to get back into government - or even win an overall majority.

    There's a big difference between EICIPM with the Tories in the lead in seats and votes, or EICIPM with a Labour lead in seats or votes. Though fingers crossed EMWNBPM.
  • AllyPally_RobAllyPally_Rob Posts: 605

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sweet Jesu. Polls converging on the slenderest of Tory leads: 1%-2%.

    This does look like EICIPM now, if the polls are true.

    4.1% swing in England and Wales.
    Most of which us concentrated in the North and the South where it is generally wasted.
    I think the Conservatives will do about 1% better, in Con/Lab marginals, than the overall swing in England and Wales, due to first time incumbency.
    Which means the swing in the Midlands is or will be close to negligible..
    Sherwood hold
    Absolutely no chance of the Tories holding Sherwood. I'm from that part of the world originally and the big story has been the last remaining colliery (Thoresby) closing. Loads of well paid jobs disappearing, wont do the Tory incumbent any favours. Solid LAB Gain.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited May 2015
    watford30 said:

    SeanT said:

    "“Get out, you fucking Jew,” he shouts. I am being throttled as around ten Asian men surround me." The UK elex, 2015.

    http://www.politico.eu/article/galloway-bradford-elections-uk-ge2015/

    From Nats brownshirting around Glasgow to lefties writing "Tory Whore" on Tory cars to the anti-Semitic thuggery of Respect, something quite sad has happened to UK politics, and its happened quite suddenly.

    You neglected to mention the Kipper who wants to 'put a bullet between the eyes' of his opponent.
    A better fit would be the kipper who was beaten up for putting a UKIP sign outside his house.

    http://www.bournemouthecho.co.uk/news/12932095.UKIP_supporter__kicked_by_group_of_men__over_election_sign_outside_his_house/

    Or the UKIP shops that have been vandalised.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,712
    Sean_F said:

    Danny565 said:

    Sean_F said:


    It does look like close but no cigar for the Conservatives.

    What's your prediction? You are usually pretty reliable!
    I'd go for the Conservatives being ahead on votes and seats, by 10-20, but not enough to form a government.
    Correct. The question is whether the Tories can assess where they went wrong in opposition, whilst maintaining discipline.

    I'm not holding my breath.
  • blakmorerjblakmorerj Posts: 22

    On Vince Cable, has there been any polling done in his seat? As far as I was aware, Twickenham was not one of the danger seats for the LDs.

    See http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-31712045

    There was an ICM *Gold Standard* poll which put the Tories on 34% and LD on 32%.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,234
    Neil said:

    Pulpstar said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I can't remember an election where all THREE party leaders have looked as vulnerable to post election manouvrings.

    273-272-24 should be a corker for knife watchers.

    Will Bennett and Farage survive as well? The changes at the top could be across the board.
    I don't really see any "triggers" for Bennett - 3rd place or lower in all of Norwich South, Sheffield Central, Bristol West and losing Pavilion perhaps.
    The members, in their wisdom, re-elected Bennett (to be fair to the members she was unopposed) last September. We are stuck with, I mean, we will enjoy the benefit of her leadership until September 2016 when I predict she will stand down.

    Greens ought to merge the E&W and Scot parties and put Patrick H in charge. 10 times better than Nat.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    That Cable has come out so publicly to speak out against a 2017 EU In-Out referendum, is telling - just how many LDs has Clegg agreed his redlines with exactly? He'll need senior colleagues on his side at the very least - and I don't just mean Alexander and Laws, either.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417
    Some of the commentors are thick as bricks:

    "What about the SNP? Will they be prepared to swear allegiance to the Crown? I'm using a the Crown as a metonymic construct there."

    Someone better tell Stuie and Angus.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    Neil said:

    Pulpstar said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I can't remember an election where all THREE party leaders have looked as vulnerable to post election manouvrings.

    273-272-24 should be a corker for knife watchers.

    Will Bennett and Farage survive as well? The changes at the top could be across the board.
    I don't really see any "triggers" for Bennett - 3rd place or lower in all of Norwich South, Sheffield Central, Bristol West and losing Pavilion perhaps.
    The members, in their wisdom, re-elected Bennett (to be fair to the members she was unopposed) last September. We are stuck with, I mean, we will enjoy the benefit of her leadership until September 2016 when I predict she will stand down.

    Greens ought to merge the E&W and Scot parties and put Patrick H in charge. 10 times better than Nat.
    I think merging those parties would be somewhat going against the constitutional tide!

    Besides you could probably throw a dart at the GPEW membership list and come up with a better leader. I can be smug about it - I consistently voted against having a leader! ;)
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830

    On Vince Cable, has there been any polling done in his seat? As far as I was aware, Twickenham was not one of the danger seats for the LDs.

    See http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-31712045

    There was an ICM *Gold Standard* poll which put the Tories on 34% and LD on 32%.
    So there's only been one poll. How long ago was it?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,992
    So the Conservatives have spent £70 million turning a small lead into a "small lead" ?

    And they lecture Labour on economic mismanagement....
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822

    @guardian_clark: The pollsters polled: will Cameron or Miliband be the next prime minister? http://t.co/pm4DYCIHHb

    Joe Twyman makes a very astute point, which has a bearing on who might be PM in an inconclusive result:

    [If Cameron succeeds in negotiating a deal with the LibDems], we could be left with both Con/LibDem and Lab/SNP blocs close in terms of seats although still short of the 326 (or even 323) needed for a majority, but with the Conservatives able to claim a points victory by virtue of being the single party having more votes and seats. Crucially they will also have a formal agreement binding them – something Lab/SNP would lack, if Miliband is to be believed.
  • LucyJonesLucyJones Posts: 651
    South Thanet result expected at around 6am, according to Telegraph - a couple of hours after Broxtowe.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11475225/date-and-time.htmlV
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Patrick said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Good afternoon.

    Interesting to see Cable on manoeuvres, arguing strongly against a 2017 EU referendum (and hence, implicitly, against a Con/LD coalition).

    Thought for the day:

    Would the LibDems be won round to a 2017 referendum if the EU were not the only question on the ballot paper? One question for the right of the coalition ("Do you want to leave the EU?") and one for the left?

    STV on the same ballot paper?

    Exactly.

    And I suspect Cameron would like it as a way of confusing the Out campaign.
    I think Clegg would be up for an EU referendum if push came to shove. He'd be gambling, almost certainly correctly, that we'd vote to stay in. UKIP are afraid of the 2017 referendum - they know we'd vote the wrong way and knacker their USP for at least a decade.
    If I were a UKIP supporter I would be looking at the SNP and be very enthusiastic about losing a 2017 EU referendum. If OUT gets one-third of the vote and UKIP can get that third of the vote to rally around their party in the way the 45% are rallying around the SNP then they would be well on to winning the next general election.
    Lets not forget the SNP aren't the only party this Parliament to get a referendum on their main cause. The Lib Dems got (and lost) a referendum on voting reform that has always been their cause celebre and how much has that helped them?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,150
    edited May 2015
    Chameleon said:

    Opinium: another online pollster now showing a Blue lead, albeit slender!

    Is there still a difference between online and phone or have they converged into uselessness?
    My "Election run-in" ELBOW with all polls with fieldwork end-dates between now and 1st May shows the following stats:

    Including everyone = Lab 0.2% lead (14 polls so far)

    YG only = 0.1% Lab lead (5 polls)

    Non-YG = 0.2% Lab lead (9 polls)

    Online-only = 0.4% Lab lead (12 polls)

    Phone-only = 2.3% CON lead (caveat, but there's only been Ashcroft and ComRes!)
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,353
    Lennon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Taking a coffee break between a zillion phone calls, so an anecdote for amusement. Chap on my list of people who told canvassers they "liked Palmer but not Labour" said he'd always voted Tory, but, well, at age 60 he'd never, ever done anything *radical*, so just this once he'd vote Labour and see how he felt.

    Eat your heart out, SeanT - some people know how to live exciting lives.

    One of the 389 down! Good luck to you tomorrow, sounds like you could be in with a chance in a very close race!
    Do we have any other Parliamentary candidates on here?
    Yes - but minor party (Pirate), so not sure it counts (and I post somewhat infrequently...)
    You will be pleased to know that Pirate even have your own colour on this battleground board, ahead of Respect, no less!

    http://www.repubblica.it/static/speciale/2015/elezioni/regno_unito_gran_bretagna/confronto.html
This discussion has been closed.