Jim Pickard in FT: "It is now pouring resources into another 20 to 25 “neck and neck” targets. These include Nuneaton, Pudsey, Northampton North, Vale of Glamorgan, Wirral West and Loughborough."
So Warickshire North, a seat that David Cameron had no right to gain in 2010, and is Labour's Number 1 target in 2015 with a notional majority 54 (0.1%), is "neck and neck". Friday morning could be a blood bath for Ed Miliband.
Jim Pickard in FT: "It is now pouring resources into another 20 to 25 “neck and neck” targets. These include Nuneaton, Pudsey, Northampton North, Vale of Glamorgan, Wirral West and Loughborough."
So Warickshire North, a seat that David Cameron had no right to gain in 2010, and is Labour's Number 1 target in 2015 with a notional majority 54 (0.1%), is "neck and neck". Friday morning could be a blood bath for Ed Miliband.
Mr. Bookseller, certainly possible. I think Labour might lose more to UKIP than the Conservatives do here (Morley & Outwood), but expect the collapsing Lib Dem vote to see Balls back in Parliament.
Jim Pickard in FT: "It is now pouring resources into another 20 to 25 “neck and neck” targets. These include Nuneaton, Pudsey, Northampton North, Vale of Glamorgan, Wirral West and Loughborough."
So Warickshire North, a seat that David Cameron had no right to gain in 2010, and is Labour's Number 1 target in 2015 with a notional majority 54 (0.1%), is "neck and neck". Friday morning could be a blood bath for Ed Miliband.
I was laughing about this yesterday when Ed played a visit. It is difficult to know what to conclude from this but the indication must be that Labour's internal figures are far worse than the polls. Pretty much all of those seats should be in the bag by now with resources going elsewhere.
At this rate Labour may be seriously struggling to make good the 35 losses in Scotland. If they are sub 260 even the SNP can't get them into government.
Something is seriously f*cked up about the polling and the reaction of the parties and of the punters. None of it reconciles. Bloody confusing, annoying, and it's going to result in red faces, tarnished reputations and/or empty wallets come Friday.
Probably not for the bookies though!
It rarely ever does
Shadsy must have put a deposit down on a Porsche by now.
You've got to be joking - he was top price on Scottish Labour for ages. Antifrank is going to take him for about 10 grand+ alone.
Jim Pickard in FT: "It is now pouring resources into another 20 to 25 “neck and neck” targets. These include Nuneaton, Pudsey, Northampton North, Vale of Glamorgan, Wirral West and Loughborough."
So Warickshire North, a seat that David Cameron had no right to gain in 2010, and is Labour's Number 1 target in 2015 with a notional majority 54 (0.1%), is "neck and neck". Friday morning could be a blood bath for Ed Miliband.
Werid, all the mood music seems bad for labour, but I can't understand it.
The Midlands is going to be horrible for Labour.
However, I am slightly puzzled as to why Labour is providing all this information. It does not make sense for them to do it.
You have to wonder why Cameron has been in places like Cornwall, Bath and Twickenham. Possibly Central Office thinks there is an adequate firewall in the Lab/Con marginals and they can go after gains from the LibDems.
Jim Pickard in FT: "It is now pouring resources into another 20 to 25 “neck and neck” targets. These include Nuneaton, Pudsey, Northampton North, Vale of Glamorgan, Wirral West and Loughborough."
So Warickshire North, a seat that David Cameron had no right to gain in 2010, and is Labour's Number 1 target in 2015 with a notional majority 54 (0.1%), is "neck and neck". Friday morning could be a blood bath for Ed Miliband.
Jim Pickard in FT: "It is now pouring resources into another 20 to 25 “neck and neck” targets. These include Nuneaton, Pudsey, Northampton North, Vale of Glamorgan, Wirral West and Loughborough."
So Warickshire North, a seat that David Cameron had no right to gain in 2010, and is Labour's Number 1 target in 2015 with a notional majority 54 (0.1%), is "neck and neck". Friday morning could be a blood bath for Ed Miliband.
Werid, all the mood music seems bad for labour, but I can't understand it.
The Midlands is going to be horrible for Labour.
However, I am slightly puzzled as to why Labour is providing all this information. It does not make sense for them to do it.
Turnout. I reckon they have the paper numbers in almost all of these top targets, but are worried their activists/members won't be sufficient to get them all out to vote.
Slim possibility that postal vote tallies might not have quite matched pledges in one or two samples here and there as well, which might have spooked them.
From Nats brownshirting around Glasgow to lefties writing "Tory Whore" on Tory cars to the anti-Semitic thuggery of Respect, something quite sad has happened to UK politics, and its happened quite suddenly.
But somehow it is the tories who are the nasty party.... go figure.
Jim Pickard in FT: "It is now pouring resources into another 20 to 25 “neck and neck” targets. These include Nuneaton, Pudsey, Northampton North, Vale of Glamorgan, Wirral West and Loughborough."
So Warickshire North, a seat that David Cameron had no right to gain in 2010, and is Labour's Number 1 target in 2015 with a notional majority 54 (0.1%), is "neck and neck". Friday morning could be a blood bath for Ed Miliband.
I was laughing about this yesterday when Ed played a visit. It is difficult to know what to conclude from this but the indication must be that Labour's internal figures are far worse than the polls. Pretty much all of those seats should be in the bag by now with resources going elsewhere.
At this rate Labour may be seriously struggling to make good the 35 losses in Scotland. If they are sub 260 even the SNP can't get them into government.
Something is seriously f*cked up about the polling and the reaction of the parties and of the punters. None of it reconciles. Bloody confusing, annoying, and it's going to result in red faces, tarnished reputations and/or empty wallets come Friday.
How about if the "shy Kippers" were actually taking a bigger chunk of votes from Labour rather than Tory?
Yes, but how do the parties and the punters know that? I've heard a lot of anecdotes about both Tories and Labour on here, and haven't got the impression that the wind is blowing that way. Hope you're correct though.
Jim Pickard in FT: "It is now pouring resources into another 20 to 25 “neck and neck” targets. These include Nuneaton, Pudsey, Northampton North, Vale of Glamorgan, Wirral West and Loughborough."
So Warickshire North, a seat that David Cameron had no right to gain in 2010, and is Labour's Number 1 target in 2015 with a notional majority 54 (0.1%), is "neck and neck". Friday morning could be a blood bath for Ed Miliband.
Werid, all the mood music seems bad for labour, but I can't understand it.
The Midlands is going to be horrible for Labour.
However, I am slightly puzzled as to why Labour is providing all this information. It does not make sense for them to do it.
It's hard not to, in a way.
Everyone knows that Ed was in Warwickshire North yesterday, everyone knows that senior figures are spending a ton of time in Hampstead, and the battlebus routes can all be checked in 5 minutes on Twitter.
Add to this journalists chatting with disgruntled peers and donors, and you get your narrative.
Jim Pickard in FT: "It is now pouring resources into another 20 to 25 “neck and neck” targets. These include Nuneaton, Pudsey, Northampton North, Vale of Glamorgan, Wirral West and Loughborough."
So Warickshire North, a seat that David Cameron had no right to gain in 2010, and is Labour's Number 1 target in 2015, is "neck and neck". Friday morning could be a blood bath for Ed Miliband.
Ashcroft poll in April put the Tories on 45% (up 4% on 2010) and Labour on 36% (up 1.5%), with a 12% Ukip share for the Tories to squeeze.
Either Ashcroft is wrong, or *more likely* in my humble opinion, Labour HQ is getting desperate.
I haven't a huge amount of faith in the Ashcroft marginal polls the Clegg ones give a huge clue as to why. Experienced people have set a lot of value in them, hope not to many have bet solely on their findings.
Personally I would go more on experienced inside knowledge. That said Loughborough is a cast iron bet as a Conservative hold.
Jim Pickard in FT: "It is now pouring resources into another 20 to 25 “neck and neck” targets. These include Nuneaton, Pudsey, Northampton North, Vale of Glamorgan, Wirral West and Loughborough."
So Warickshire North, a seat that David Cameron had no right to gain in 2010, and is Labour's Number 1 target in 2015 with a notional majority 54 (0.1%), is "neck and neck". Friday morning could be a blood bath for Ed Miliband.
I was laughing about this yesterday when Ed played a visit. It is difficult to know what to conclude from this but the indication must be that Labour's internal figures are far worse than the polls. Pretty much all of those seats should be in the bag by now with resources going elsewhere.
At this rate Labour may be seriously struggling to make good the 35 losses in Scotland. If they are sub 260 even the SNP can't get them into government.
Something is seriously f*cked up about the polling and the reaction of the parties and of the punters. None of it reconciles. Bloody confusing, annoying, and it's going to result in red faces, tarnished reputations and/or empty wallets come Friday.
Probably not for the bookies though!
It rarely ever does
Shadsy must have put a deposit down on a Porsche by now.
You've got to be joking - he was top price on Scottish Labour for ages. Antifrank is going to take him for about 10 grand+ alone.
Ah. Well, even though he seems a nice chap, that does cheer me up a bit
(I was under the - clearly wrong - impression that most of the Scottish betting was on the marketes, not with the chains)
Big UKIP vote to squeeze in North Warks + incumbency might be why Con can hold on. I expect Nuneaton to go.
So they were 11% ahead in July 2014 and its now neck and neck?
Does Labour know what they are doing or is this another example of them opting out from using grown ups this time around?
There was talk earlier in the campaign about how much of a pain it was for the local parties to have the leaders turn up. Why is the assumption that if Miliband is in a particular seat it's because Labour HQ think it is somewhere that needs more voters won over?
Seems to me that they would want him out of the way from such seats, so that the activists can get on with campaigning without the distraction of a Miliband visit to keep them away from the voters that need persuading.
So Miliband is sent to a seat already deemed to be won.
Jim Pickard in FT: "It is now pouring resources into another 20 to 25 “neck and neck” targets. These include Nuneaton, Pudsey, Northampton North, Vale of Glamorgan, Wirral West and Loughborough."
So Warickshire North, a seat that David Cameron had no right to gain in 2010, and is Labour's Number 1 target in 2015 with a notional majority 54 (0.1%), is "neck and neck". Friday morning could be a blood bath for Ed Miliband.
Werid, all the mood music seems bad for labour, but I can't understand it.
The Midlands is going to be horrible for Labour.
However, I am slightly puzzled as to why Labour is providing all this information. It does not make sense for them to do it.
Watering down their prospects, allowing them to claim *victory* with a modest result?
Meh..the numbers are the numbers, it's not like they've put out any expectations offically. This is about resources, and you put them where they're most needed.
Remember the offical word is all 'we're playing for a majority'.
Exactly - anyone with an email address and a spec of cunning will know where the Tories are campaigning/targeting and how many are turning out for them seats by seat. I assume Labour and LDs are similarly vulnerable.
A poster on here FPT posted the entire list of Tory target seats within 100 miles of their home town. I'm sure anyone with two brain cells will have infiltrated that database. What happens on the ground of course is another matter.
My polling station has just changed as more volunteers are turning out - my local seats return at 3/4/5am. Can't wait to see what happens in Eastbourne and Lewes.
Jim Pickard in FT: "It is now pouring resources into another 20 to 25 “neck and neck” targets. These include Nuneaton, Pudsey, Northampton North, Vale of Glamorgan, Wirral West and Loughborough."
So Warickshire North, a seat that David Cameron had no right to gain in 2010, and is Labour's Number 1 target in 2015 with a notional majority 54 (0.1%), is "neck and neck". Friday morning could be a blood bath for Ed Miliband.
With Labour figures spending so much time in the most marginal seats, if the polls are right how many seats do we reckon that Labour may have lost (/not gained) through campaigning in the wrong places?
Jim Pickard in FT: "It is now pouring resources into another 20 to 25 “neck and neck” targets. These include Nuneaton, Pudsey, Northampton North, Vale of Glamorgan, Wirral West and Loughborough."
So Warickshire North, a seat that David Cameron had no right to gain in 2010, and is Labour's Number 1 target in 2015 with a notional majority 54 (0.1%), is "neck and neck". Friday morning could be a blood bath for Ed Miliband.
Werid, all the mood music seems bad for labour, but I can't understand it.
The Midlands is going to be horrible for Labour.
However, I am slightly puzzled as to why Labour is providing all this information. It does not make sense for them to do it.
You have to wonder why Cameron has been in places like Cornwall, Bath and Twickenham. Possibly Central Office thinks there is an adequate firewall in the Lab/Con marginals and they can go after gains from the LibDems.
The effort in the LD seats is remarkable. I worked heavily in one ultra-marginal last time and the level of CCHQ commitment this time is on a different scale.
Any dispatches from Halifax / Itchen / Birmingham Northfield? If there actually is a strategy to play for a majority (and the interest in Twickenham et al suggests so) you'd expect some movement in Lab-held marginals.
Not that I'm expecting a majority, but it's interesting to try and work out just what the Tories are doing.
Not sure twitter is representative of internet users and I don't buy this "the old don't use the interweb" either. My folks are glued to their ipads these days.
It's true.
Lots of old folk don't use the internet, or have it but have next to no interest in it.
This shows some old figures, but it is checked in government research as a measure of inclusion/deprivation and affordability.
Jim Pickard in FT: "It is now pouring resources into another 20 to 25 “neck and neck” targets. These include Nuneaton, Pudsey, Northampton North, Vale of Glamorgan, Wirral West and Loughborough."
So Warickshire North, a seat that David Cameron had no right to gain in 2010, and is Labour's Number 1 target in 2015 with a notional majority 54 (0.1%), is "neck and neck". Friday morning could be a blood bath for Ed Miliband.
Werid, all the mood music seems bad for labour, but I can't understand it.
The Midlands is going to be horrible for Labour.
However, I am slightly puzzled as to why Labour is providing all this information. It does not make sense for them to do it.
You have to wonder why Cameron has been in places like Cornwall, Bath and Twickenham. Possibly Central Office thinks there is an adequate firewall in the Lab/Con marginals and they can go after gains from the LibDems.
So long as the licence fee is paid for it, I don't see why not.
Tricky as they'll have to effectively put it behind a pay-wall (ie you'll have to log in), so it effectively turns the BBC into a subscription service.
Jim Pickard in FT: "It is now pouring resources into another 20 to 25 “neck and neck” targets. These include Nuneaton, Pudsey, Northampton North, Vale of Glamorgan, Wirral West and Loughborough."
So Warickshire North, a seat that David Cameron had no right to gain in 2010, and is Labour's Number 1 target in 2015 with a notional majority 54 (0.1%), is "neck and neck". Friday morning could be a blood bath for Ed Miliband.
Werid, all the mood music seems bad for labour, but I can't understand it.
The Midlands is going to be horrible for Labour.
However, I am slightly puzzled as to why Labour is providing all this information. It does not make sense for them to do it.
Watering down their prospects, allowing them to claim *victory* with a modest result?
Meh..the numbers are the numbers, it's not like they've put out any expectations offically. This is about resources, and you put them where they're most needed.
Remember the offical word is all 'we're playing for a majority'.
I keep saying, and I keep getting accused of ramping, there is no swing against Cons in at least two hyper marginals in the north west that i have been involved in. No swing against at all. Remember, this is all like for like.
Jihadist who left Britain to join ISIS in Syria was responsible for the slick footage showing Jordanian airman being burned alive in a cage, says prominent Islamist
Big UKIP vote to squeeze in North Warks + incumbency might be why Con can hold on. I expect Nuneaton to go.
So they were 11% ahead in July 2014 and its now neck and neck?
Does Labour know what they are doing or is this another example of them opting out from using grown ups this time around?
There was talk earlier in the campaign about how much of a pain it was for the local parties to have the leaders turn up. Why is the assumption that if Miliband is in a particular seat it's because Labour HQ think it is somewhere that needs more voters won over?
Seems to me that they would want him out of the way from such seats, so that the activists can get on with campaigning without the distraction of a Miliband visit to keep them away from the voters that need persuading.
So Miliband is sent to a seat already deemed to be won.
That makes very little sense to me. Cabinet no marks like Nick was talking about yes but the leader is a chance to be on the telly and have your picture in the local press. It is a chance for generally positive coverage of your policies, especially from the local press who tend to be less cynical and critical than the MSM. And the leader tends to bring a bus load of workers with him.
Leadership time is one of the most precious resources that the campaigns have. Labour are spending it curiously.
Jim Pickard in FT: "It is now pouring resources into another 20 to 25 “neck and neck” targets. These include Nuneaton, Pudsey, Northampton North, Vale of Glamorgan, Wirral West and Loughborough."
So Warickshire North, a seat that David Cameron had no right to gain in 2010, and is Labour's Number 1 target in 2015 with a notional majority 54 (0.1%), is "neck and neck". Friday morning could be a blood bath for Ed Miliband.
Werid, all the mood music seems bad for labour, but I can't understand it.
The Midlands is going to be horrible for Labour.
However, I am slightly puzzled as to why Labour is providing all this information. It does not make sense for them to do it.
It's hard not to, in a way.
Everyone knows that Ed was in Warwickshire North yesterday, everyone knows that senior figures are spending a ton of time in Hampstead, and the battlebus routes can all be checked in 5 minutes on Twitter.
Add to this journalists chatting with disgruntled peers and donors, and you get your narrative.
There does not seem to be a narrative, though. I would have thought that this would be all over the papers if it really was an issue - especially the Tory ones (though the Guardian enjoys leftie doom and gloom too), but it has not been. We have had just a few bits in the New Statesman. Even the FT bloke says Labour thinks 20 to 25 seats are in the bag and now it is focusing on 25 more seats, including the ones he mentions. Given this is an analysis piece on Labour's strategy and it is based on talking to Labour people it seems strange that he does not even hint at Labour being worried.
Jim Pickard in FT: "It is now pouring resources into another 20 to 25 “neck and neck” targets. These include Nuneaton, Pudsey, Northampton North, Vale of Glamorgan, Wirral West and Loughborough."
So Warickshire North, a seat that David Cameron had no right to gain in 2010, and is Labour's Number 1 target in 2015 with a notional majority 54 (0.1%), is "neck and neck". Friday morning could be a blood bath for Ed Miliband.
Werid, all the mood music seems bad for labour, but I can't understand it.
The Midlands is going to be horrible for Labour.
However, I am slightly puzzled as to why Labour is providing all this information. It does not make sense for them to do it.
Watering down their prospects, allowing them to claim *victory* with a modest result?
Meh..the numbers are the numbers, it's not like they've put out any expectations offically. This is about resources, and you put them where they're most needed.
Remember the offical word is all 'we're playing for a majority'.
I keep saying, and I keep getting accused of ramping, there is no swing against Cons in at least two hyper marginals in the north west that i have been involved in. No swing against at all. Remember, this is all like for like.
Off to see Dave.
My nerves can't take this... I'm reconciled in my mind of Ed just doing enough with the support of the SNP.
I'm not sure my tiny little brain can take anything else.
So long as the licence fee is paid for it, I don't see why not.
Tricky as they'll have to effectively put it behind a pay-wall (ie you'll have to log in), so it effectively turns the BBC into a subscription service.
No charge if you type your address and license fee number. Can't be too tricky to do - and the BBC are actually rather good* at large IT projects.
*Comparitively good, any way, and streets ahead of any public body outside of GCHQ.
Ashcroft poll in April put the Tories on 45% (up 4% on 2010) and Labour on 36% (up 1.5%), with a 12% Ukip share for the Tories to squeeze.
Either Ashcroft is wrong, or *more likely* in my humble opinion, Labour HQ is getting desperate.
Desperation is not expressed by tackling unwinnable seats. FWIW we think Ashcroft was wrong on Loughborough - it's quite close.
Apparently, Labour think the Ashcroft constituency polls generally are junk, is that right? The New Statesman was saying the other day that they think BOTH Battersea and Hampstead are tight races, even though Ashcroft had shown a thumping Tory lead and thumping Labour lead respectively.
So long as the licence fee is paid for it, I don't see why not.
Tricky as they'll have to effectively put it behind a pay-wall (ie you'll have to log in), so it effectively turns the BBC into a subscription service.
And this is a bad thing?
So it should be. We're already paying a subscription for it, we just don't have any real choice in the matter. Either it should be made free to air paid by commercials like ITV, or voluntary subscription based.
Compelling people by law to pay for the BBC, just because they want to watch live any of the other hundreds of TV channels we have, at threat of prison is an archaic anomaly.
So long as the licence fee is paid for it, I don't see why not.
Tricky as they'll have to effectively put it behind a pay-wall (ie you'll have to log in), so it effectively turns the BBC into a subscription service.
No charge if you type your address and license fee number. Can't be too tricky to do - and the BBC are actually rather good* at large IT projects.
*Comparitively good, any way, and streets ahead of any public body outside of GCHQ.
Yeah really good...Digital Media Initiative....
And people bang on about iPlayer, it is actually rather piss poor. Even the pirate streaming sites out there provide content quicker and in higher quality, let alone the pros like Netflix. Their tech is just far superior.
And don't get started on the radio app...that is very badly coded.
Election 2015: Labour and Tories neck and neck in final Guardian/ICM poll Parties tied on 35%, with Ed Miliband’s party pulling back three points from last poll and Conservatives’ score unchanged
If ICM come in with a tory lead of less than 6% Labour and Ed seem to be panicking unnecessarily if quite amusingly.
Not really. Given changes with Scotland and UKIP etc, a 4% Tory lead likely means DCIPM while a 3% lead is a bit of a toss up.
6% is possible Tory majority territory. That would be a stunning result.
Don't see that. The fall in the Scottish vote for Labour is worth about 1% nationally.
That means that Scotland is distorting the poll less than they used to and a tory lead is higher compared to 2010. So if the tories led by 7% in 2010 with Scotland dominated this would now need a lead of 8% to be the same in E&W.
I have consistently argued the bias will be less this time around that will offset it but a 7% lead did not give the tories a majority in 2010 and I doubt it would in 2015.
Jim Pickard in FT: "It is now pouring resources into another 20 to 25 “neck and neck” targets. These include Nuneaton, Pudsey, Northampton North, Vale of Glamorgan, Wirral West and Loughborough."
So Warickshire North, a seat that David Cameron had no right to gain in 2010, and is Labour's Number 1 target in 2015 with a notional majority 54 (0.1%), is "neck and neck". Friday morning could be a blood bath for Ed Miliband.
Werid, all the mood music seems bad for labour, but I can't understand it.
The Midlands is going to be horrible for Labour.
However, I am slightly puzzled as to why Labour is providing all this information. It does not make sense for them to do it.
You have to wonder why Cameron has been in places like Cornwall, Bath and Twickenham. Possibly Central Office thinks there is an adequate firewall in the Lab/Con marginals and they can go after gains from the LibDems.
Alternatively - though unlikely - they have given up on a fair few Tory/Labour marginals and need as many gains from the LDs as possible in order to remain the largest party.
The age skew makes it obvious why internet polls may lean towards the parties who are most likely to draw support from the young.
Chestnut, me old chestnut, I think the pollsters are already aware of this (and for that matter all the other polling 'errors' you highlight). Wishful thinking is one thing, but you've raised it to an art form!
Election 2015: Labour and Tories neck and neck in final Guardian/ICM poll Parties tied on 35%, with Ed Miliband’s party pulling back three points from last poll and Conservatives’ score unchanged
Election 2015: Labour and Tories neck and neck in final Guardian/ICM poll Parties tied on 35%, with Ed Miliband’s party pulling back three points from last poll and Conservatives’ score unchanged
Big UKIP vote to squeeze in North Warks + incumbency might be why Con can hold on. I expect Nuneaton to go.
So they were 11% ahead in July 2014 and its now neck and neck?
Does Labour know what they are doing or is this another example of them opting out from using grown ups this time around?
There was talk earlier in the campaign about how much of a pain it was for the local parties to have the leaders turn up. Why is the assumption that if Miliband is in a particular seat it's because Labour HQ think it is somewhere that needs more voters won over?
Seems to me that they would want him out of the way from such seats, so that the activists can get on with campaigning without the distraction of a Miliband visit to keep them away from the voters that need persuading.
So Miliband is sent to a seat already deemed to be won.
That makes very little sense to me. Cabinet no marks like Nick was talking about yes but the leader is a chance to be on the telly and have your picture in the local press. It is a chance for generally positive coverage of your policies, especially from the local press who tend to be less cynical and critical than the MSM. And the leader tends to bring a bus load of workers with him.
Leadership time is one of the most precious resources that the campaigns have. Labour are spending it curiously.
The party leaders are fighting the national campaign for photo opportunities and the TV. It's not like they have actually been going out and meeting local people is it? If they were whipping out the soap boxes to talk in public then it would be different.
Cameron visited Exeter and no-one here knew until after he had left.
I've been very bearish on Labour prospects in this election, but looking at the seats that Miliband is visiting is no evidence either way in my opinion.
Election 2015: Labour and Tories neck and neck in final Guardian/ICM poll Parties tied on 35%, with Ed Miliband’s party pulling back three points from last poll and Conservatives’ score unchanged
Green % has been massively squeezed in that poll. Be interesting to see if that is true tomorrow, as I would presume left wing voters pile in to try and get a left wing government, rather than waste their vote on the Greens.
Miliband 35% strategy looking good....at least if he doesn't mind being attached to the SNP millstone.
Populus/BMG/Opinium/TNS in - not a single Lab lead ?
Strange how posters are slowly coming to the mindset that EICIPM though.
One can only resist the weight of mathematics for so long. Lab most seats has been given far too little attention as a possibility even from the pollsters. The 35% strategy was always unnecessarily limited and pessimistic, but it was always going to work if they could achieve 35%.
The age skew makes it obvious why internet polls may lean towards the parties who are most likely to draw support from the young.
Chestnut, me old chestnut, I think the pollsters are already aware of this (and for that matter all the other polling 'errors' you highlight). Wishful thinking is one thing, but you've raised it to an art form!
UKIP gets a large proportion of its votes from older parts of the population, but does best in internet polls.
After that ICM poll, I'm not understanding at all the mood music towards Labour. It looks like if the mood music is right, then even PB's gold standard is wrong. I have to say, I'm quite shocked that ICM did not produce a significant Conservative lead.
Election 2015: Labour and Tories neck and neck in final Guardian/ICM poll Parties tied on 35%, with Ed Miliband’s party pulling back three points from last poll and Conservatives’ score unchanged
Election 2015: Labour and Tories neck and neck in final Guardian/ICM poll Parties tied on 35%, with Ed Miliband’s party pulling back three points from last poll and Conservatives’ score unchanged
Election 2015: Labour and Tories neck and neck in final Guardian/ICM poll Parties tied on 35%, with Ed Miliband’s party pulling back three points from last poll and Conservatives’ score unchanged
"The survey is ICM’s preliminary prediction poll, with a larger than normal sample size, and will be updated on polling day, after additional interviews being conducted into Wednesday night are fed into the data."
Jim Pickard in FT: "It is now pouring resources into another 20 to 25 “neck and neck” targets. These include Nuneaton, Pudsey, Northampton North, Vale of Glamorgan, Wirral West and Loughborough."
So Warickshire North, a seat that David Cameron had no right to gain in 2010, and is Labour's Number 1 target in 2015 with a notional majority 54 (0.1%), is "neck and neck". Friday morning could be a blood bath for Ed Miliband.
Werid, all the mood music seems bad for labour, but I can't understand it.
The Midlands is going to be horrible for Labour.
However, I am slightly puzzled as to why Labour is providing all this information. It does not make sense for them to do it.
You have to wonder why Cameron has been in places like Cornwall, Bath and Twickenham. Possibly Central Office thinks there is an adequate firewall in the Lab/Con marginals and they can go after gains from the LibDems.
I've been pondering this all day. I get the e-mails from CCHQ on where I should canvass and we are leaving Lab marginals now. I can only assume that either they are safe or lost. The low hanging fruit is LD seats. 3 days ago, Lab marginal returns were fabulous. Today, they are closer but whatever, we are in yellow territory.
Interesting what Nick says about Loughborough; Cons only had 1% lead over Lab in 2010 and now he is saying it is close. IE, my inside knowledge that swing will be about 1% seems spot on! If Lab get 1% then only 15 Tory seats at most. Add in up to 15 LD gains = 303 seats for Tories.
After that ICM poll, I'm not understanding at all the mood music towards Labour. It looks like if the mood music is right, then even PB's gold standard is wrong. I have to say, I'm quite shocked that ICM did not produce a significant Conservative lead.
If there was serious mood music then the newspapers would have picked it up. The FT bloke names the constituencies without comment; we have seen almost nothing in the Tory papers or blogs, not even Guido, about Labour panic either - and surely we would have done if it really existed.
We will now have the curious febrile background of Labour MPs going into tomorrow night's count not believing the polling and thinking they are going to lose and Tory MPs resigned to believing them and thinking they are going to lose too.
Jim Pickard in FT: "It is now pouring resources into another 20 to 25 “neck and neck” targets. These include Nuneaton, Pudsey, Northampton North, Vale of Glamorgan, Wirral West and Loughborough."
So Warickshire North, a seat that David Cameron had no right to gain in 2010, and is Labour's Number 1 target in 2015 with a notional majority 54 (0.1%), is "neck and neck". Friday morning could be a blood bath for Ed Miliband.
Werid, all the mood music seems bad for labour, but I can't understand it.
The Midlands is going to be horrible for Labour.
However, I am slightly puzzled as to why Labour is providing all this information. It does not make sense for them to do it.
Watering down their prospects, allowing them to claim *victory* with a modest result?
Meh..the numbers are the numbers, it's not like they've put out any expectations offically. This is about resources, and you put them where they're most needed.
Remember the offical word is all 'we're playing for a majority'.
I keep saying, and I keep getting accused of ramping, there is no swing against Cons in at least two hyper marginals in the north west that i have been involved in. No swing against at all. Remember, this is all like for like.
Off to see Dave.
And same in Sarf London across 6 seats. If peoples are honest and consistent then we blues are ok
Comments
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-32611657
In other tech news, the EU want the iPlayer to be available across the entire EU:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-32607246
Incidentally, are you an actual bookseller?
Slim possibility that postal vote tallies might not have quite matched pledges in one or two samples here and there as well, which might have spooked them.
Everyone knows that Ed was in Warwickshire North yesterday, everyone knows that senior figures are spending a ton of time in Hampstead, and the battlebus routes can all be checked in 5 minutes on Twitter.
Add to this journalists chatting with disgruntled peers and donors, and you get your narrative.
Personally I would go more on experienced inside knowledge. That said Loughborough is a cast iron bet as a Conservative hold.
(I was under the - clearly wrong - impression that most of the Scottish betting was on the marketes, not with the chains)
Seems to me that they would want him out of the way from such seats, so that the activists can get on with campaigning without the distraction of a Miliband visit to keep them away from the voters that need persuading.
So Miliband is sent to a seat already deemed to be won.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3070320/PIERS-MORGAN-Britain-s-pathetic-political-class-going-dogs-tomorrow-m-casting-vote-four-legged-friends.html
Remember the offical word is all 'we're playing for a majority'.
A poster on here FPT posted the entire list of Tory target seats within 100 miles of their home town. I'm sure anyone with two brain cells will have infiltrated that database. What happens on the ground of course is another matter.
My polling station has just changed as more volunteers are turning out - my local seats return at 3/4/5am. Can't wait to see what happens in Eastbourne and Lewes.
http://t.co/jmwgGMHaph http://t.co/7WBMTPlcVf
Any dispatches from Halifax / Itchen / Birmingham Northfield? If there actually is a strategy to play for a majority (and the interest in Twickenham et al suggests so) you'd expect some movement in Lab-held marginals.
Not that I'm expecting a majority, but it's interesting to try and work out just what the Tories are doing.
Lots of old folk don't use the internet, or have it but have next to no interest in it.
This shows some old figures, but it is checked in government research as a measure of inclusion/deprivation and affordability.
http://was-gb.wascdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/Home-internet-access-by-age-socio-economic-group-and-gender.jpg
LDs more likely to hold BR&S, CS&ER, and even ED.
6% is possible Tory majority territory. That would be a stunning result.
Off to see Dave.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3070322/Jihadist-left-Britain-join-ISIS-Syria-responsible-slick-footage-showing-Jordanian-airman-burned-alive-cage-says-prominent-Islamist.html
Leadership time is one of the most precious resources that the campaigns have. Labour are spending it curiously.
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_373584.pdf
The age skew makes it obvious why internet polls may lean towards the parties who are most likely to draw support from the young.
I'm not sure my tiny little brain can take anything else.
*Comparitively good, any way, and streets ahead of any public body outside of GCHQ.
Scotland's courts refuse to let an English barrister address them for first time since 1532
http://bit.ly/1H0UeFT
So it should be. We're already paying a subscription for it, we just don't have any real choice in the matter. Either it should be made free to air paid by commercials like ITV, or voluntary subscription based.
Compelling people by law to pay for the BBC, just because they want to watch live any of the other hundreds of TV channels we have, at threat of prison is an archaic anomaly.
And people bang on about iPlayer, it is actually rather piss poor. Even the pirate streaming sites out there provide content quicker and in higher quality, let alone the pros like Netflix. Their tech is just far superior.
And don't get started on the radio app...that is very badly coded.
Parties tied on 35%, with Ed Miliband’s party pulling back three points from last poll and Conservatives’ score unchanged
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/may/06/general-election-2015-labour-tories-final-guardian-icm-poll?CMP=share_btn_tw
That means that Scotland is distorting the poll less than they used to and a tory lead is higher compared to 2010. So if the tories led by 7% in 2010 with Scotland dominated this would now need a lead of 8% to be the same in E&W.
I have consistently argued the bias will be less this time around that will offset it but a 7% lead did not give the tories a majority in 2010 and I doubt it would in 2015.
Neck and neck: Tories 35% Lab 35% LibDems 9% Ukip 11% Greens 3% Latest Guardian/ICM poll
Cameron visited Exeter and no-one here knew until after he had left.
I've been very bearish on Labour prospects in this election, but looking at the seats that Miliband is visiting is no evidence either way in my opinion.
They are either stacking up votes in safe constituencies or well placed to win most seats.
Based just on the polls, Ed Miliband is favourite to be PM.
Big, big movements by ICM for 6 to 3 to 0 over a fairly short period of time. Very surprising.
Miliband 35% strategy looking good....at least if he doesn't mind being attached to the SNP millstone.
CON: 275
My prediction looking better after that ICM...
Rogue Poll.
No way is Labour up after #edstone.
"The survey is ICM’s preliminary prediction poll, with a larger than normal sample size, and will be updated on polling day, after additional interviews being conducted into Wednesday night are fed into the data."
Interesting what Nick says about Loughborough; Cons only had 1% lead over Lab in 2010 and now he is saying it is close. IE, my inside knowledge that swing will be about 1% seems spot on! If Lab get 1% then only 15 Tory seats at most. Add in up to 15 LD gains = 303 seats for Tories.
They can't both be right.
Lab most seats nailed on.