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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » GE2015 Day Minus 1 – the latest polling/betting round-up

New Panelbase poll of Scottish voting intention has SNP in its dominant position

SNP 48
LAB 26
CON 14
LD 5
UKIP 3
GRN 2

Read the full story here

Ishmael_X

1

Tabman

2

Sunil_Prasannan

https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/595771486457167872

https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/595771155123953664

TheScreamingEagles

I'm so excited, I could wee.

One sleep to go.

TOPPING

Panda

RobD

Happy Election Eve people. Stockings out, I hope.

TOPPING

TheScreamingEagles said:

I'm so excited, I could wee.

One sleep to go.

Given the accuracy of the exit poll, for the general result, is there a need to stay up to see it constituency-by-constituency, unless there are of course bets on...?

Pulpstar

If the SNP hose up like they're predicted to, I'm changing my name to Wings over Derbyshire.

Sunil_Prasannan

TheScreamingEagles said:

I'm so excited, I could wee.

One sleep to go.

You're so excited and you just can't hide it?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I'm_So_Excited

RobD

TOPPING said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I'm so excited, I could wee.

One sleep to go.

Given the accuracy of the exit poll, for the general result, is there a need to stay up to see if constituency-by-constituency, unless there are of course bets on...?

Err. Are you mad? What about all the jaw dropping excitement?????

Sunil_Prasannan

RobD said:

Happy Election Eve people. Stockings out, I hope.

I am ready, man! Ready to get it on!

TOPPING

RobD said:

TOPPING said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I'm so excited, I could wee.

One sleep to go.

Given the accuracy of the exit poll, for the general result, is there a need to stay up to see if constituency-by-constituency, unless there are of course bets on...?

Err. Are you mad? What about all the jaw dropping excitement?????

indeed.

A bit like catching the result before MoTD. And if it's the wrong result, then MoTD gets binned anyway.

TheScreamingEagles

TOPPING said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I'm so excited, I could wee.

One sleep to go.

Given the accuracy of the exit poll, for the general result, is there a need to stay up to see it constituency-by-constituency, unless there are of course bets on...?

The exit poll might be wronger than a Morris Dancer post on Classical history.

Says John Curtice, who is doing the exit poll.

Sandpit

If those SPIN numbers come to pass it will be absolute deadlock.

Lab+LD+SNP for 335?
Con+LD+UKIP for 320, helped by a few Ulstermen abstaining?

A good election to lose, me thinks!

Pulpstar

Sunil_Prasannan said:

RobD said:

Happy Election Eve people. Stockings out, I hope.

I am ready, man! Ready to get it on!

Are you pumped up ?

I'm turning up the volume.

About your vote young Sunil, I'm not actually sure I want Ilford North to go red now - which means Wes Streeting probably smashes up !

Beverley_C

I cannot believe that UKIP is going to keep its two seats, nevermind getting 5 or 10 seats. There are simply too many fruitcakes and such-like in it.

I wonder who will get the seats that pollsters are allocating to UKIP. In an election where a few seats can make a difference, those not-won-by-UKIP seats might be disproportionately important.

Freggles

My prediction


Dan Hodges is going to get a lot of tweets directed at him from about 3am onwards Friday morning

Ishmael_X

Sunil_Prasannan said:

https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/595771486457167872

https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/595771155123953664

Never mind the shares, look at the lack of variation in online polling.

If you lose noise, you lose signal. I hope this GE will bury the "online polling" phenomenon and replace it with something which actually tells us something.

Sunil_Prasannan

TheScreamingEagles said:

TOPPING said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I'm so excited, I could wee.

One sleep to go.

Given the accuracy of the exit poll, for the general result, is there a need to stay up to see it constituency-by-constituency, unless there are of course bets on...?

The exit poll might be wronger than a Morris Dancer post on Classical history.

Says John Curtice, who is doing the exit poll.

In 2010 the Excite Poll was almost spot on, IIRC.

[Deleted User]

Beverley_C said:

I cannot believe that UKIP is going to keep its two seats, nevermind getting 5 or 10 seats. There are simply too many fruitcakes and such-like in it.

I wonder who will get the seats that pollsters are allocating to UKIP. In an election where a few seats can make a difference, those not-won-by-UKIP seats might be disproportionately important.

I think Carswell will survive. But he may be on his own!

TheScreamingEagles

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TOPPING said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I'm so excited, I could wee.

One sleep to go.

Given the accuracy of the exit poll, for the general result, is there a need to stay up to see it constituency-by-constituency, unless there are of course bets on...?

The exit poll might be wronger than a Morris Dancer post on Classical history.

Says John Curtice, who is doing the exit poll.

In 2010 the Excite Poll was almost spot on, IIRC.

It was, but the bloody Kippers, and the Kippers in kilts, have thrown a Spaniard into the works.

TOPPING

Beverley_C said:

I cannot believe that UKIP is going to keep its two seats, nevermind getting 5 or 10 seats. There are simply too many fruitcakes and such-like in it.

I wonder who will get the seats that pollsters are allocating to UKIP. In an election where a few seats can make a difference, those not-won-by-UKIP seats might be disproportionately important.

The only seats UKIP will get are those with named candidates. And they're only going to get one. That means Nigel or Reckless or the other one.

Pulpstar

Beverley_C said:

I cannot believe that UKIP is going to keep its two seats, nevermind getting 5 or 10 seats. There are simply too many fruitcakes and such-like in it.

I wonder who will get the seats that pollsters are allocating to UKIP. In an election where a few seats can make a difference, those not-won-by-UKIP seats might be disproportionately important.

Clacton UKIP-Con (Carswell is v safe)
Thanet South UKIP-Con (Labour are out the race)
Thurrock is a 3 way, most likely UKIP but otherwise probably Labour
Rochester is UKIP-Con
Castle Point/Boston are UKIP-Con

Ishmael_X

TOPPING said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I'm so excited, I could wee.

One sleep to go.

Given the accuracy of the exit poll, for the general result, is there a need to stay up to see it constituency-by-constituency, unless there are of course bets on...?

The 1992 exit polls gave it to Lab.

Sunil_Prasannan

Pulpstar said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

RobD said:

Happy Election Eve people. Stockings out, I hope.

I am ready, man! Ready to get it on!

Are you pumped up ?

I'm turning up the volume.

About your vote young Sunil, I'm not actually sure I want Ilford North to go red now - which means Wes Streeting probably smashes up !

In the interest of impartiality, I don't think I should reveal who I'm voting/voted for until the very last ELBOW of the campaign comes out, which won't be until tomorrow

(at least that's my excuse for being "undecided" at this time!).

Dair

Pulpstar said:

If the SNP hose up like they're predicted to, I'm changing my name to Wings over Derbyshire.

Mercia surely?

Sandpit

TheScreamingEagles said:

TOPPING said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I'm so excited, I could wee.

One sleep to go.

Given the accuracy of the exit poll, for the general result, is there a need to stay up to see it constituency-by-constituency, unless there are of course bets on...?

The exit poll might be wronger than a Morris Dancer post on Classical history.

Says John Curtice, who is doing the exit poll.

Yep, he's talking down his own work, despite having got it pretty much spot on the last two elections.
I think he sees too many variables at play here, with large changes in UKIP, LD and SNP votes making for some surprising results. A couple of Tory gains in Scotland maybe, or more LDs hanging on than expected?

Sunil_Prasannan

I wish I had a postal vote now! D'oh!

Dair

Not long now.

The #Jockalypse cometh.

peter_from_putney

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TOPPING said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I'm so excited, I could wee.

One sleep to go.

Given the accuracy of the exit poll, for the general result, is there a need to stay up to see it constituency-by-constituency, unless there are of course bets on...?

The exit poll might be wronger than a Morris Dancer post on Classical history.

Says John Curtice, who is doing the exit poll.

In 2010 the Excite Poll was almost spot on, IIRC.

Yes indeed, it was most exciting.

Beverley_C

Patrick said:

I think Carswell will survive. But he may be on his own!

I could see that being more likely than these projections showing UKIP getting extra seats, but given the closeness of this election I could also see UKIP being less attractive to voters who know that the real battle in England & Wales is between the big three parties and that, for once, every vote may count.

UKIP is going nowhere. Why waste a vote on it? The other small parties in E&W will face a similar problem.

TOPPING

SeanT said:

Sandpit said:

If those SPIN numbers come to pass it will be absolute deadlock.

Lab+LD+SNP for 335?
Con+LD+UKIP for 320, helped by a few Ulstermen abstaining?

A good election to lose, me thinks!

If those numbers come to pass, Cameron will be PM, but of a horribly weak admin.

Miliband will want to challenge him, using the SNP's help, but if he is 20+ seats behind AND (presumably) behind on votes, his fellow MPs will see this for the deathwish it is, and stop him.

Far better for Labour to let Cameron stumble on, then collapse a year down the line.

I like Evan Davies' concept of the "smell test".

That said, with FTPA not sure what anyone can do. It might be the biggest example of politicians further distancing themselves, and attracting loathing from the common people:

fails the smell test, done anyway.

AllyPally_Rob

Ishmael_X said:

TOPPING said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I'm so excited, I could wee.

One sleep to go.

Given the accuracy of the exit poll, for the general result, is there a need to stay up to see it constituency-by-constituency, unless there are of course bets on...?

The 1992 exit polls gave it to Lab.

Dimbleby about to go on air with a massive picture of Kinnock facing him announcing a Labour lead, then about 20 seconds before he went on air someone said 'scrap that the poll has changed'.

Sunil_Prasannan

Dair said:

Pulpstar said:

If the SNP hose up like they're predicted to, I'm changing my name to Wings over Derbyshire.

Mercia surely?

Wasn't Sheffield in Northumbria (just)?

Richard_Nabavi

Sandpit said:

Yep, he's talking down his own work, despite having got it pretty much spot on the last two elections.
I think he sees too many variables at play here, with large changes in UKIP, LD and SNP votes making for some surprising results. A couple of Tory gains in Scotland maybe, or more LDs hanging on than expected?

The big problem they have with the exit poll is that it relies on the change from the samples they took in the same key seats last time. However, some of the seats that might change hands this time will be ones which they didn't sample last time, notably formerly safe Labour seats in Scotland, and most of the seats where UKIP are a significant factor. As a result they haven't got a complete baseline to work against.

Neil

RobD said:

TOPPING said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I'm so excited, I could wee.

One sleep to go.

Given the accuracy of the exit poll, for the general result, is there a need to stay up to see if constituency-by-constituency, unless there are of course bets on...?

Err. Are you mad? What about all the jaw dropping excitement?????

I will be abroad and likely to miss all the excitement

I will settle all my betting losses on return to Blighty next week! TSE - you might as well pay over the bet you're going to lose now

Scrapheap_as_was

why is cam at an empty zoo?

Carnyx

Dair said:

Pulpstar said:

If the SNP hose up like they're predicted to, I'm changing my name to Wings over Derbyshire.

Mercia surely?

Or Danelaw?

TGOHF

Dair said:

Not long now.

The #Jockalypse cometh.

There will be the same amount of Scotch MPs afterwards - 59.

But less ministers and less in cabinet.

Carnyx

FPT

Carnyx said:

Alistair said:

Dair said:

Alistair said:

Sounds like WIngs Over Scotland put a Scottish VI poll with supplementals out there and will be reporting results today.

It will be the Panelbase one. It explains why there were questions about Rangers.

Sevco.

Just seen the likely reason for the Old Firm question ...


Wings Over Scotland
‏@WingsScotland Snippet from our coming poll: large majorities of both Celtic and "Rangers" fans support the Offensive Behaviour (Football) Act.

Edit: Almost certainly specifically targeted at Mr Murphy.

Philip_Thompson

One issue surprisingly not discussed much is a Scottish landslide effects on independence polling.

If the SNP tomorrow records seat gains akin to Sinn Fein in 1918 then I think momentum could propel the polls to showing 55%+ for independence. Once that happens expect it to be the issue in Holyrood 2016.

Brom

Beverley_C said:

Patrick said:

I think Carswell will survive. But he may be on his own!

I could see that being more likely than these projections showing UKIP getting extra seats, but given the closeness of this election I could also see UKIP being less attractive to voters who know that the real battle in England & Wales is between the big three parties and that, for once, every vote may count.

UKIP is going nowhere. Why waste a vote on it? The other small parties in E&W will face a similar problem.

I can only imagine how bored UKIP voters are of this line getting trotted out every 5 minutes (usually by desperate Tories). Cameron has nothing on offer that might attract the disillusioned voter. Not being Miliband is simply not enough to woo a Kipper.


Btw for my anecdotal evidence this week Turner will hold on in Isle of Wight and Davey will hold on in Kingston. This was based on a simple poster count.

Pulpstar

peter_from_putney said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TOPPING said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I'm so excited, I could wee.

One sleep to go.

Given the accuracy of the exit poll, for the general result, is there a need to stay up to see it constituency-by-constituency, unless there are of course bets on...?

The exit poll might be wronger than a Morris Dancer post on Classical history.

Says John Curtice, who is doing the exit poll.

In 2010 the Excite Poll was almost spot on, IIRC.

Yes indeed, it was most exciting.

Snoozefest after I knew it'd be a Conservative Gov't but with all the good bits taken out. We need a short and distatrous Labour Gov't this time to kill them off, the Tories will win easily in 2016 or whenever Ramsey McMiliband is toppled.

The Conservatives can keep their discipline in opposition, right ?

Carnyx

Carnyx said:

FPT

Carnyx said:

Alistair said:

Dair said:

Alistair said:

Sounds like WIngs Over Scotland put a Scottish VI poll with supplementals out there and will be reporting results today.

It will be the Panelbase one. It explains why there were questions about Rangers.

Sevco.

Just seen the likely reason for the Old Firm question ...


Wings Over Scotland
‏@WingsScotland Snippet from our coming poll: large majorities of both Celtic and "Rangers" fans support the Offensive Behaviour (Football) Act.

Edit: Almost certainly specifically targeted at Mr Murphy.

Just seen this tweet -

Wings Over Scotland @WingsScotland
· 3 mins 3 minutes ago
Huge majorities of both (and everyone else) also want the alcohol ban to stay. So much for Murphy's appeal to the fitba/Glasgow Man vote.

Sandpit

SeanT said:

Sandpit said:

If those SPIN numbers come to pass it will be absolute deadlock.

Lab+LD+SNP for 335?
Con+LD+UKIP for 320, helped by a few Ulstermen abstaining?

A good election to lose, me thinks!

If those numbers come to pass, Cameron will be PM, but of a horribly weak admin.

Miliband will want to challenge him, using the SNP's help, but if he is 20+ seats behind AND (presumably) behind on votes, his fellow MPs will see this for the deathwish it is, and stop him.

Far better for Labour to let Cameron stumble on, then collapse a year down the line.

Yes, it will be absolute chaos. I wonder how much work the parties have done in wargaming what happens after that sort of result?

Last time it was clear cut that only one option existed for a two-party coalition, which is how it played out.

This time we will have a decimated LD group who surely won't want to go in for a formal deal again, Con will have a lost a few seats and Lab are clearly behind the Tories and dead in Scotland. Everyone's lost (except the SNP and possibly UKIP).

One thing's for sure, no-one will want to work with the SNP because of how it will look to their supporters in England.

weejonnie

Freggles said:

My prediction


Dan Hodges is going to get a lot of tweets directed at him from about 3am onwards Friday morning

Would have thought it would start at 10.50 - when UKIP poll 15-20% in Sunderland. (FWIW my staff - several of whom come from Sunderland are talking about voting UKIP - I think it is a 'We didn't like Labour really but could never vote Tory".)

Scrapheap_as_was

when is icm - I've got to go out for meetings this pm....

#robdlessglam

Sunil_Prasannan

I cut short last week's ELBOW on Thursday 30th (17 polls with field-work end-dates 26th to 30th inclusive), given that Election Day is a Thursday.

So, tomorrow's final ELBOW should have all polls with end-dates from 1st May to today inclusive - thing is there may be more polls than I anticipated!

RobbieBox

Here is my forecast:
Con - 278
Lab - 268
SNP - 51
LD - 25
UKIP - 5
PC - 3
Green - 1
Speaker -1
Respect - 0
-------------------
Northern Ireland:
DUP - 9
SF - 4
SDLP - 3
UUP - 1
Ind. - 1
Alliance - 0

FalseFlag

Baby boomers still the left wing outliers on that age breakdown, the lamest generation. Must have been something in the water in the late 60s early 70s when they came of age.

TOPPING

Pulpstar said:

peter_from_putney said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TOPPING said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I'm so excited, I could wee.

One sleep to go.

Given the accuracy of the exit poll, for the general result, is there a need to stay up to see it constituency-by-constituency, unless there are of course bets on...?

The exit poll might be wronger than a Morris Dancer post on Classical history.

Says John Curtice, who is doing the exit poll.

In 2010 the Excite Poll was almost spot on, IIRC.

Yes indeed, it was most exciting.

Snoozefest after I knew it'd be a Conservative Gov't but with all the good bits taken out. We need a short and distatrous Labour Gov't this time to kill them off, the Tories will win easily in 2016 or whenever Ramsey McMiliband is toppled.

The Conservatives can keep their discipline in opposition, right ?

Even Jacob would think twice before crossing Owen.

That said, they'd only be talking to each other as a party so it wouldn't really matter.

weejonnie

Beverley_C said:

Patrick said:

I think Carswell will survive. But he may be on his own!

I could see that being more likely than these projections showing UKIP getting extra seats, but given the closeness of this election I could also see UKIP being less attractive to voters who know that the real battle in England & Wales is between the big three parties and that, for once, every vote may count.

UKIP is going nowhere. Why waste a vote on it? The other small parties in E&W will face a similar problem.

Daily Mail missed a trick with their tactical voting guide - they should have added a dozen seats where tories should vote UKIP - Rotherham, Rother Valley etc. Had they done that then UKIP voters would have been more likely to vote Tory on a 'you scratch my back...' basis.

Sandpit

Richard_Nabavi said:

Sandpit said:

Yep, he's talking down his own work, despite having got it pretty much spot on the last two elections.
I think he sees too many variables at play here, with large changes in UKIP, LD and SNP votes making for some surprising results. A couple of Tory gains in Scotland maybe, or more LDs hanging on than expected?

The big problem they have with the exit poll is that it relies on the change from the samples they took in the same key seats last time. However, some of the seats that might change hands this time will be ones which they didn't sample last time, notably formerly safe Labour seats in Scotland, and most of the seats where UKIP are a significant factor. As a result they haven't got a complete baseline to work against.

Good point Sir, as always!
Yes, there will be more seats 'in play' at this election than have been in living memory.

Daniel

Philip_Thompson said:

One issue surprisingly not discussed much is a Scottish landslide effects on independence polling.

If the SNP tomorrow records seat gains akin to Sinn Fein in 1918 then I think momentum could propel the polls to showing 55%+ for independence. Once that happens expect it to be the issue in Holyrood 2016.

FFA is the only method left to halt independence; as one Labour MP put it to me - give 'em control of the books and watch them screw it up.

Under FFA, SNP can no longer blame Westminster for their fiscal problems. The buck stops with Holyrood. But, would Labour be prepared to devolve it?

TGOHF

Carnyx said:

Carnyx said:

FPT

Carnyx said:

Alistair said:

Dair said:

Alistair said:

Sounds like WIngs Over Scotland put a Scottish VI poll with supplementals out there and will be reporting results today.

It will be the Panelbase one. It explains why there were questions about Rangers.

Sevco.

Just seen the likely reason for the Old Firm question ...


Wings Over Scotland
‏@WingsScotland Snippet from our coming poll: large majorities of both Celtic and "Rangers" fans support the Offensive Behaviour (Football) Act.

Edit: Almost certainly specifically targeted at Mr Murphy.

Just seen this tweet -

Wings Over Scotland @WingsScotland
· 3 mins 3 minutes ago
Huge majorities of both (and everyone else) also want the alcohol ban to stay. So much for Murphy's appeal to the fitba/Glasgow Man vote.

Usual sample sizes for a Wings poll ? 10 voters ?

Purseybear

TOPPING said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I'm so excited, I could wee.

One sleep to go.

Given the accuracy of the exit poll, for the general result, is there a need to stay up to see it constituency-by-constituency, unless there are of course bets on...?

Even IF Cons and Lab don't move much in E&W there'll be mahooosive movement in:

SLAB to SNP
LD to CON & some LAB

Then theres Farage & loads of other close scraps incl some casualties north of the border.

Then, if tories don't win outright [i think they will] its calculators at the ready to see the permutations.

Beverley_C

Pulpstar said:

Clacton UKIP-Con (Carswell is v safe)
Thanet South UKIP-Con (Labour are out the race)
Thurrock is a 3 way, most likely UKIP but otherwise probably Labour
Rochester is UKIP-Con
Castle Point/Boston are UKIP-Con

Is there something in the water where you live?

Clacton UKIP-Con (Carswell is v safe) - OK

Thanet South UKIP-Con (Labour are out the race) - UKIP where 20,000 votes behind the tories

Thurrock is a 3 way, most likely UKIP but otherwise probably Labour - Labour were neck and neck with the tories. The Tory majority was 92. UKIP 12,000 behind

Rochester is UKIP-Con - OK

Castle Point/Boston are UKIP-Con - Last election, 7,000 Tory Majority

Out of those 5 you will probably keep two

TOPPING

@malcolmg

fpt: phew!

Philip_Thompson

Daniel said:

Philip_Thompson said:

One issue surprisingly not discussed much is a Scottish landslide effects on independence polling.

If the SNP tomorrow records seat gains akin to Sinn Fein in 1918 then I think momentum could propel the polls to showing 55%+ for independence. Once that happens expect it to be the issue in Holyrood 2016.

FFA is the only method left to halt independence; as one Labour MP put it to me - give 'em control of the books and watch them screw it up.

Under FFA, SNP can no longer blame Westminster for their fiscal problems. The buck stops with Holyrood. But, would Labour be prepared to devolve it?

I think FFA is about as plausibly likely to halt independence as "devolution will kill nationalism stone dead".

Another question for those who know, could this be the first election where the government has no Scottish MPs? Make an interesting question as to who would be Scottish Secretary in the new cabinet.

Scott_P

@IsabelHardman: YES. @Freddygray31’s latest acerbic mick-take of pundits is out, and it’s on bluffing your way through election night http://t.co/qmtPPJBcIp

Pulpstar

Philip_Thompson said:

Daniel said:

Philip_Thompson said:

One issue surprisingly not discussed much is a Scottish landslide effects on independence polling.

If the SNP tomorrow records seat gains akin to Sinn Fein in 1918 then I think momentum could propel the polls to showing 55%+ for independence. Once that happens expect it to be the issue in Holyrood 2016.

FFA is the only method left to halt independence; as one Labour MP put it to me - give 'em control of the books and watch them screw it up.

Under FFA, SNP can no longer blame Westminster for their fiscal problems. The buck stops with Holyrood. But, would Labour be prepared to devolve it?

I think FFA is about as plausibly likely to halt independence as "devolution will kill nationalism stone dead".

Another question for those who know, could this be the first election where the government has no Scottish MPs? Make an interesting question as to who would be Scottish Secretary in the new cabinet.

Carmichael or ... Murphy.

JEO

Beverley_C said:

I cannot believe that UKIP is going to keep its two seats, nevermind getting 5 or 10 seats. There are simply too many fruitcakes and such-like in it.

I wonder who will get the seats that pollsters are allocating to UKIP. In an election where a few seats can make a difference, those not-won-by-UKIP seats might be disproportionately important.

I think Reckless, Carswell, Aker and Farage will all win their seats.

weejonnie

Sandpit said:

SeanT said:

Sandpit said:

If those SPIN numbers come to pass it will be absolute deadlock.

Lab+LD+SNP for 335?
Con+LD+UKIP for 320, helped by a few Ulstermen abstaining?

A good election to lose, me thinks!

If those numbers come to pass, Cameron will be PM, but of a horribly weak admin.

Miliband will want to challenge him, using the SNP's help, but if he is 20+ seats behind AND (presumably) behind on votes, his fellow MPs will see this for the deathwish it is, and stop him.

Far better for Labour to let Cameron stumble on, then collapse a year down the line.

Yes, it will be absolute chaos. I wonder how much work the parties have done in wargaming what happens after that sort of result?

Last time it was clear cut that only one option existed for a two-party coalition, which is how it played out.

This time we will have a decimated LD group who surely won't want to go in for a formal deal again, Con will have a lost a few seats and Lab are clearly behind the Tories and dead in Scotland. Everyone's lost (except the SNP and possibly UKIP).

One thing's for sure, no-one will want to work with the SNP because of how it will look to their supporters in England.

I would work with the SNP or form an alliance if access to No 10 were the result (there are no keys IIRC). It is not that it would be wrong - it is just that their policies would bankrupt the country even faster than Labour's. (an extra £180 billion for Scotland FFS + and extra £90 billion Labour intends to borrow + and extra £200 billion caused by Ed Miliband's energy act = an extra £470.00 billion debt. I'll write that out. £470,000,000,000. Given a UK population of 60 million, it would be the equivalent of EVERYONE in the country buying a new car on the never-never, whether or not they could afford it. Interest would be £14,000,000,000 a year additional (assuming interest at 3%)

Philip_Thompson

Pulpstar said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Daniel said:

Philip_Thompson said:

One issue surprisingly not discussed much is a Scottish landslide effects on independence polling.

If the SNP tomorrow records seat gains akin to Sinn Fein in 1918 then I think momentum could propel the polls to showing 55%+ for independence. Once that happens expect it to be the issue in Holyrood 2016.

FFA is the only method left to halt independence; as one Labour MP put it to me - give 'em control of the books and watch them screw it up.

Under FFA, SNP can no longer blame Westminster for their fiscal problems. The buck stops with Holyrood. But, would Labour be prepared to devolve it?

I think FFA is about as plausibly likely to halt independence as "devolution will kill nationalism stone dead".

Another question for those who know, could this be the first election where the government has no Scottish MPs? Make an interesting question as to who would be Scottish Secretary in the new cabinet.

Carmichael or ... Murphy.

It has to be possible that either of those lose their seats but their parties win (is as much as Carmichael's party can "win").

TheScreamingEagles

Pulpstar said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Daniel said:

Philip_Thompson said:

One issue surprisingly not discussed much is a Scottish landslide effects on independence polling.

If the SNP tomorrow records seat gains akin to Sinn Fein in 1918 then I think momentum could propel the polls to showing 55%+ for independence. Once that happens expect it to be the issue in Holyrood 2016.

FFA is the only method left to halt independence; as one Labour MP put it to me - give 'em control of the books and watch them screw it up.

Under FFA, SNP can no longer blame Westminster for their fiscal problems. The buck stops with Holyrood. But, would Labour be prepared to devolve it?

I think FFA is about as plausibly likely to halt independence as "devolution will kill nationalism stone dead".

Another question for those who know, could this be the first election where the government has no Scottish MPs? Make an interesting question as to who would be Scottish Secretary in the new cabinet.

Carmichael or ... Murphy.

Jo Swinson

Daniel

Philip_Thompson said:

Make an interesting question as to who would be Scottish Secretary in the new cabinet.

Gordon Brown did try to merge Scottish, Welsh and Northern Irish Secretarys into a new department. Ed Miliband might try again.

Carnyx

Philip_Thompson said:

One issue surprisingly not discussed much is a Scottish landslide effects on independence polling.

If the SNP tomorrow records seat gains akin to Sinn Fein in 1918 then I think momentum could propel the polls to showing 55%+ for independence. Once that happens expect it to be the issue in Holyrood 2016.

Interesting thought.

The SNP have been focussing on Westminster, yes, but (ironically) the Unonists have been going on and on and on about the risk of a second referendum if the SNP get in - not quite what you are talking about, but their rather odd combinatiton with that and saying they'd never allow it is almost the same thing, not that they meant it. Interestingly the Times is saying that Labour made a mistake big time with focussing on indyref 2 which has only boosted SNP support (rather surprising but the academics think so).

But it's all a bit premature perhaps - how the Unionists react to whatever happens tomorrow will be crucial, and that in a sense might form the 'momentum' or perhaps tipping point you envisage. Plus the SNP have to get through the perverse Holyrood voting system in 2016 (but with the aid of the pro-union Greens and SSP, plus any splits from Labour, LDs etc.).

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Eagles, ha.

I have been considering imperial comparisons for Cameron based on how well/badly he does.

Outright majority = Trajan
Enough seats to absolutely guarantee being PM = Basil II
No change = Aurelian
Being clear first and not being PM anymore = Heraclius
Level with Miliband and Lab-SNP running the country = Constantine Dragases
Clear second = Honorius
Loses 100 seats = Valerian

It's tricky getting comparisons right, but I think the above are a decent set.

Beverley_C

Brom said:

I can only imagine how bored UKIP voters are of this line

Indeed. Truth hurts

Brom said:

... getting trotted out every 5 minutes (usually by desperate Tories).

Ahh.. if only I was a party loyalist instead of a disenchanted voter who thinks that they are all liars and fools and their chief difference lies in their levels of knavery.

Brom said:

Cameron has nothing on offer that might attract the disillusioned voter. Not being Miliband is simply not enough to woo a Kipper.

There may be no one you want to vote for, but there is always someone worth voting against.

tlg86

weejonnie said:

Beverley_C said:

Patrick said:

I think Carswell will survive. But he may be on his own!

I could see that being more likely than these projections showing UKIP getting extra seats, but given the closeness of this election I could also see UKIP being less attractive to voters who know that the real battle in England & Wales is between the big three parties and that, for once, every vote may count.

UKIP is going nowhere. Why waste a vote on it? The other small parties in E&W will face a similar problem.

Daily Mail missed a trick with their tactical voting guide - they should have added a dozen seats where tories should vote UKIP - Rotherham, Rother Valley etc. Had they done that then UKIP voters would have been more likely to vote Tory on a 'you scratch my back...' basis.

They had two such seats - Heywood and Middleton and Dudley North.

Pulpstar

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Daniel said:

Philip_Thompson said:

One issue surprisingly not discussed much is a Scottish landslide effects on independence polling.

If the SNP tomorrow records seat gains akin to Sinn Fein in 1918 then I think momentum could propel the polls to showing 55%+ for independence. Once that happens expect it to be the issue in Holyrood 2016.

FFA is the only method left to halt independence; as one Labour MP put it to me - give 'em control of the books and watch them screw it up.

Under FFA, SNP can no longer blame Westminster for their fiscal problems. The buck stops with Holyrood. But, would Labour be prepared to devolve it?

I think FFA is about as plausibly likely to halt independence as "devolution will kill nationalism stone dead".

Another question for those who know, could this be the first election where the government has no Scottish MPs? Make an interesting question as to who would be Scottish Secretary in the new cabinet.

Carmichael or ... Murphy.

Jo Swinson

I've laid Jo, but have rebacked her too. Have you laid or backed Jo ?

Carnyx

TGOHF said:

Carnyx said:

Carnyx said:

FPT

Carnyx said:

Alistair said:

Dair said:

Alistair said:

Sounds like WIngs Over Scotland put a Scottish VI poll with supplementals out there and will be reporting results today.

It will be the Panelbase one. It explains why there were questions about Rangers.

Sevco.

Just seen the likely reason for the Old Firm question ...


Wings Over Scotland
‏@WingsScotland Snippet from our coming poll: large majorities of both Celtic and "Rangers" fans support the Offensive Behaviour (Football) Act.

Edit: Almost certainly specifically targeted at Mr Murphy.

Just seen this tweet -

Wings Over Scotland @WingsScotland
· 3 mins 3 minutes ago
Huge majorities of both (and everyone else) also want the alcohol ban to stay. So much for Murphy's appeal to the fitba/Glasgow Man vote.

Usual sample sizes for a Wings poll ? 10 voters ?

We'll find out. But they weren't too bad before.

Sunil_Prasannan

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Daniel said:

Philip_Thompson said:

One issue surprisingly not discussed much is a Scottish landslide effects on independence polling.

If the SNP tomorrow records seat gains akin to Sinn Fein in 1918 then I think momentum could propel the polls to showing 55%+ for independence. Once that happens expect it to be the issue in Holyrood 2016.

FFA is the only method left to halt independence; as one Labour MP put it to me - give 'em control of the books and watch them screw it up.

Under FFA, SNP can no longer blame Westminster for their fiscal problems. The buck stops with Holyrood. But, would Labour be prepared to devolve it?

I think FFA is about as plausibly likely to halt independence as "devolution will kill nationalism stone dead".

Another question for those who know, could this be the first election where the government has no Scottish MPs? Make an interesting question as to who would be Scottish Secretary in the new cabinet.

Carmichael or ... Murphy.

Jo Swinson

I've laid Jo, but have rebacked her too. Have you laid or backed Jo ?

Not yet, but I think she looks OK

(i'll get me coat)

TheScreamingEagles

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, ha.

I have been considering imperial comparisons for Cameron based on how well/badly he does.

Outright majority = Trajan
Enough seats to absolutely guarantee being PM = Basil II
No change = Aurelian
Being clear first and not being PM anymore = Heraclius
Level with Miliband and Lab-SNP running the country = Constantine Dragases
Clear second = Honorius
Loses 100 seats = Valerian

It's tricky getting comparisons right, but I think the above are a decent set.

Huzzah, I'm glad my posts have improved your knowledge.

I do disagree with one.

Nick Clegg is clearly Valerian, kidnapped by his opponents, The Tories, when discussing peace/coalition and used as a human foot stool by Cameron for the last five years.

rcs1000

JEO said:

Beverley_C said:

I cannot believe that UKIP is going to keep its two seats, nevermind getting 5 or 10 seats. There are simply too many fruitcakes and such-like in it.

I wonder who will get the seats that pollsters are allocating to UKIP. In an election where a few seats can make a difference, those not-won-by-UKIP seats might be disproportionately important.

I think Reckless, Carswell, Aker and Farage will all win their seats.

I hope Farage wins by less than 6.5%...

Sunil_Prasannan

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, ha.

I have been considering imperial comparisons for Cameron based on how well/badly he does.

Outright majority = Trajan
Enough seats to absolutely guarantee being PM = Basil II
No change = Aurelian
Being clear first and not being PM anymore = Heraclius
Level with Miliband and Lab-SNP running the country = Constantine Dragases
Clear second = Honorius
Loses 100 seats = Valerian

It's tricky getting comparisons right, but I think the above are a decent set.

Mr Dancer - no mention of Hannibal?

Pulpstar

It's amusing how many Lib Dem seats we (And the Ashcroft polling to be fair) percieve to be "special cases". Perhaps they won't be though...

Tabman

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Daniel said:

Philip_Thompson said:

One issue surprisingly not discussed much is a Scottish landslide effects on independence polling.

If the SNP tomorrow records seat gains akin to Sinn Fein in 1918 then I think momentum could propel the polls to showing 55%+ for independence. Once that happens expect it to be the issue in Holyrood 2016.

FFA is the only method left to halt independence; as one Labour MP put it to me - give 'em control of the books and watch them screw it up.

Under FFA, SNP can no longer blame Westminster for their fiscal problems. The buck stops with Holyrood. But, would Labour be prepared to devolve it?

I think FFA is about as plausibly likely to halt independence as "devolution will kill nationalism stone dead".

Another question for those who know, could this be the first election where the government has no Scottish MPs? Make an interesting question as to who would be Scottish Secretary in the new cabinet.

Carmichael or ... Murphy.

Jo Swinson

I've laid Jo, but have rebacked her too. Have you laid or backed Jo ?

Fnarr

[gets coat ...]

TheScreamingEagles

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Daniel said:

Philip_Thompson said:

One issue surprisingly not discussed much is a Scottish landslide effects on independence polling.

If the SNP tomorrow records seat gains akin to Sinn Fein in 1918 then I think momentum could propel the polls to showing 55%+ for independence. Once that happens expect it to be the issue in Holyrood 2016.

FFA is the only method left to halt independence; as one Labour MP put it to me - give 'em control of the books and watch them screw it up.

Under FFA, SNP can no longer blame Westminster for their fiscal problems. The buck stops with Holyrood. But, would Labour be prepared to devolve it?

I think FFA is about as plausibly likely to halt independence as "devolution will kill nationalism stone dead".

Another question for those who know, could this be the first election where the government has no Scottish MPs? Make an interesting question as to who would be Scottish Secretary in the new cabinet.

Carmichael or ... Murphy.

Jo Swinson

I've laid Jo, but have rebacked her too. Have you laid or backed Jo ?

I've been backing the Lib Dems in some of their Scottish held seats.

peter_from_putney

Still nothing further as regards tomorrow night's would-be bunfight at the Finborough Arms and there's nothing on the pub's website either, so I'm assuming it's all died a death .... pity really as it could have been fun, particularly during the early hours of Friday.
I shall keep Her Indoors entertained instead.

Beverley_C

JEO said:

I think Reckless, Carswell, Aker and Farage will all win their seats.

Fair enough. Having absolutely no basis other than feminine intuition, I think Carswell will keep his seat and Reckless will either lose his or just squeak over the line.

TheScreamingEagles

The most interesting from the PB meet in Broxtowe last night.

Everyone mentioned that I really hate Mark Reckless.

I thought, I had managed to keep my hatred well hidden.

Sandpit

weejonnie said:

Beverley_C said:

Patrick said:

I think Carswell will survive. But he may be on his own!

I could see that being more likely than these projections showing UKIP getting extra seats, but given the closeness of this election I could also see UKIP being less attractive to voters who know that the real battle in England & Wales is between the big three parties and that, for once, every vote may count.

UKIP is going nowhere. Why waste a vote on it? The other small parties in E&W will face a similar problem.

Daily Mail missed a trick with their tactical voting guide - they should have added a dozen seats where tories should vote UKIP - Rotherham, Rother Valley etc. Had they done that then UKIP voters would have been more likely to vote Tory on a 'you scratch my back...' basis.

I have a feeling that a few of the Northern towns where certain problems occurred could be surprises on the night. Places where a single party has dominated for decades on small turnouts and they don't have the machinery in place to canvass or GOTV because they've never had to bother before. No-one will really see it coming until the result is declared, same as Galloway's by-election (which was of course tipped by OGH at long odds!).

dyedwoolie

Merry Christmas Mr Lawrence!
Tom Conti goes red to blue

AllyPally_Rob

Daniel said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Make an interesting question as to who would be Scottish Secretary in the new cabinet.

Gordon Brown did try to merge Scottish, Welsh and Northern Irish Secretarys into a new department. Ed Miliband might try again.

Minister for North Britain and the Provinces?

Pulpstar

peter_from_putney said:

Still nothing further as regards tomorrow night's would-be bunfight at the Finborough Arms and there's nothing on the pub's website either, so I'm assuming it's all died a death .... pity really as it could have been fun, particularly during the early hours of Friday.
I shall keep Her Indoors entertained instead.

Around 25 tickets sold. I'll be there.

Daniel

AllyPally_Rob said:

Daniel said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Make an interesting question as to who would be Scottish Secretary in the new cabinet.

Gordon Brown did try to merge Scottish, Welsh and Northern Irish Secretarys into a new department. Ed Miliband might try again.

Minister for North Britain and the Provinces?

Minister for The Nations was the actual title (from what I remembered)

TheScreamingEagles

peter_from_putney said:

Still nothing further as regards tomorrow night's would-be bunfight at the Finborough Arms and there's nothing on the pub's website either, so I'm assuming it's all died a death .... pity really as it could have been fun, particularly during the early hours of Friday.
I shall keep Her Indoors entertained instead.

There's 25 people going.

dr_spyn

Another straight choice from The Greens in Bristol West.

http://www.itv.com/news/update/2015-05-06/greens-momentum-is-with-us-in-key-bristol-seat/

Bad enough seeing that on leaflets from Labour several weeks ago.

FrancisUrquhart

Is it just me, or does it surprise people how popular the right wing parties are among the young in that ComRes polling? I would like to see of those also broken down with certainty to vote.

The perception is that you 18-30 group are dominated by idealistic left wingers, and it is over time that there is a drift to the right.

This polling certainly goes against that perception.

Philip_Thompson

SeanT said:

Philip_Thompson said:

One issue surprisingly not discussed much is a Scottish landslide effects on independence polling.

If the SNP tomorrow records seat gains akin to Sinn Fein in 1918 then I think momentum could propel the polls to showing 55%+ for independence. Once that happens expect it to be the issue in Holyrood 2016.

Really? The latest polls show support for indy in decline, after a while when it had a majority of voters. Now YES has dipped to 47 (53 NO).

The circumstances you describe would be the worst for the indyreffers. Scotland will have maximum leverage, both main UK parties will be forced to offer FFA (or something close to it). Why would Scots then vote to quit, when they have the best of all possible worlds - virtually complete autonomy, serious clout in London, no worries about currency or the EU...

They wouldn't. They'd vote to see if the Nats (or whoever) could use those new powers wisely. The chance for the YESers will come in 10 or 15 years when Home Rule is cemented and seems to be working, and one more heave looks much less scary.

I'm sure that's Sturgeon's plan, her problem is reining in her mad new members who want indy tomorrow.

A final problem for YESsers is that they have to win another outright majority in Holyrood next year. Might not be so easy if Scots go off the idea of a one party state, and when Scots realise they are voting for a tax raising government, not just one that spends cash disbursed from London.

A lot of the public don't over-think politics and momentum has an effect all on its own. Look at the opinion polling in 1997 after the General Election: http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/historical-polls/voting-intention-1997-2001

All of a sudden after polling 43.2% at the election after it Labour were on 50-60% and stayed by and large ahead of 50% until 2000 (and the Fuel Strikes especially). People back a winner and if the SNP are landslide winners I think we'll see a "yes we can" momentum for a final push in polls.

Whether they'd win a second indyref is an altogether different story, but I think the polls will show it. And if they do, as you said I think Sturgeon will struggle not to go for it without disappointing her own supporters.

Tabman

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, ha.

I have been considering imperial comparisons for Cameron based on how well/badly he does.

Outright majority = Trajan
Enough seats to absolutely guarantee being PM = Basil II
No change = Aurelian
Being clear first and not being PM anymore = Heraclius
Level with Miliband and Lab-SNP running the country = Constantine Dragases
Clear second = Honorius
Loses 100 seats = Valerian

It's tricky getting comparisons right, but I think the above are a decent set.

Alliance with the Jacobi(tes) = Claudius
Pops out for a coffee and never returns = (Cafe) Nero

Carnyx

SeanT said:

Philip_Thompson said:

One issue surprisingly not discussed much is a Scottish landslide effects on independence polling.

If the SNP tomorrow records seat gains akin to Sinn Fein in 1918 then I think momentum could propel the polls to showing 55%+ for independence. Once that happens expect it to be the issue in Holyrood 2016.

Really? The latest polls show support for indy in decline, after a while when it had a majority of voters. Now YES has dipped to 47 (53 NO).

The circumstances you describe would be the worst for the indyreffers. Scotland will have maximum leverage, both main UK parties will be forced to offer FFA (or something close to it). Why would Scots then vote to quit, when they have the best of all possible worlds - virtually complete autonomy, serious clout in London, no worries about currency or the EU...

They wouldn't. They'd vote to see if the Nats (or whoever) could use those new powers wisely. The chance for the YESers will come in 10 or 15 years when Home Rule is cemented and seems to be working, and one more heave looks much less scary.

I'm sure that's Sturgeon's plan, her problem is reining in her mad new members who want indy tomorrow.

A final problem for YESsers is that they have to win another outright majority in Holyrood next year. Might not be so easy if Scots go off the idea of a one party state, and when Scots realise they are voting for a tax raising government, not just one that spends cash disbursed from London.

I know you are used to the elective dictatorship of Westminster, but Holyrood is most certainly not a one-party state - the SNP majority is not very large and the minor parties get plenty of a look in. So that objection doesn't stand for Holyrood. And at Westminster we are all UK citizens together.

murali_s

I'm feeling very nervous...

Hope I won't be reaching for the Prozac on Friday morning!

Brom

Beverley_C said:

Brom said:

I can only imagine how bored UKIP voters are of this line

Indeed. Truth hurts

Brom said:

... getting trotted out every 5 minutes (usually by desperate Tories).

Ahh.. if only I was a party loyalist instead of a disenchanted voter who thinks that they are all liars and fools and their chief difference lies in their levels of knavery.

Brom said:

Cameron has nothing on offer that might attract the disillusioned voter. Not being Miliband is simply not enough to woo a Kipper.

There may be no one you want to vote for, but there is always someone worth voting against.

you must be livid the UKIP vote hasn't dropped during the campaign. There is not always someone worth voting against, and that is why so many people don't bother voting.

Morris_Dancer

Dr. Prasannan, Hannibal was never emperor

He did, however, rule Carthage.

Mr. Eagles, Bayezid I for Clegg [has much the same theme, and fits the Cleggasm nicely, whilst keeping the emperors for Cameron].

Bayezid I, as we all learnt at primary school, was an Ottoman Turk who was poised around 1400 to conquer Byzantium. At that moment, when all hope seemed lost, Tamerlane [think Genghis Khan] turned up with a horde of Mongols and swept away Bayezid's massive army, capturing the sultan and using him as a foot stool, (when not keeping him in a cage, which reportedly drove him insane).

Sandpit

TheScreamingEagles said:

The most interesting from the PB meet in Broxtowe last night.

Everyone mentioned that I really hate Mark Reckless.

I thought, I had managed to keep my hatred well hidden.

I thought that your comments regarding the evil traitorous pig dog were measured and subtle.

peter_from_putney

TheScreamingEagles said:

peter_from_putney said:

Still nothing further as regards tomorrow night's would-be bunfight at the Finborough Arms and there's nothing on the pub's website either, so I'm assuming it's all died a death .... pity really as it could have been fun, particularly during the early hours of Friday.
I shall keep Her Indoors entertained instead.

There's 25 people going.

Oh really, that's pretty good considering there's been absolutely no publicity since the initial briefest of announcements. PB.com really isn't great when it comes to putting the word about.

dyedwoolie

My gut feeling at this stage is the waverers will break 60/40 to Con tomorrow, but how many will turn out?

FalseFlag

FrancisUrquhart said:

Is it just me, or does it surprise people how popular the right wing parties are among the young in that ComRes polling? I would like to see of those also broken down with certainty to vote.

The perception is that you 18-30 group are dominated by idealistic left wingers, and it is over time that there is a drift to the right.

This polling certainly goes against that perception.

No, on the receiving end of the new left policies of mass immigration. Few jobs, lowly paid, declining living standards, chronic housing issues and a reaction against the baby boomers.