After that ICM poll, I'm not understanding at all the mood music towards Labour. It looks like if the mood music is right, then even PB's gold standard is wrong. I have to say, I'm quite shocked that ICM did not produce a significant Conservative lead.
If there was serious mood music then the newspapers would have picked it up. The FT bloke names the constituencies without comment; we have seen almost nothing in the Tory papers or blogs, not even Guido, about Labour panic either - and surely we would have done if it really existed.
I agree with that. You'd think the Telegraph and The Sun especially, would be running away with it.
Jim Pickard in FT: "It is now pouring resources into another 20 to 25 “neck and neck” targets. These include Nuneaton, Pudsey, Northampton North, Vale of Glamorgan, Wirral West and Loughborough."
So Warickshire North, a seat that David Cameron had no right to gain in 2010, and is Labour's Number 1 target in 2015 with a notional majority 54 (0.1%), is "neck and neck". Friday morning could be a blood bath for Ed Miliband.
Werid, all the mood music seems bad for labour, but I can't understand it.
The Midlands is going to be horrible for Labour.
However, I am slightly puzzled as to why Labour is providing all this information. It does not make sense for them to do it.
You have to wonder why Cameron has been in places like Cornwall, Bath and Twickenham. Possibly Central Office thinks there is an adequate firewall in the Lab/Con marginals and they can go after gains from the LibDems.
The effort in the LD seats is remarkable. I worked heavily in one ultra-marginal last time and the level of CCHQ commitment this time is on a different scale.
Any dispatches from Halifax / Itchen / Birmingham Northfield? If there actually is a strategy to play for a majority (and the interest in Twickenham et al suggests so) you'd expect some movement in Lab-held marginals.
Not that I'm expecting a majority, but it's interesting to try and work out just what the Tories are doing.
Blues big in Twickers. Lab marginals may be safe! or lost!
We will now have the curious febrile background of Labour MPs going into tomorrow night's count not believing the polling and thinking they are going to lose and Tory MPs resigned to believing them and thinking they are going to lose too. They can't both be right.
True enough. Unsurprisingly I tend to think its the Labour ones who are wrong, and they are just surprised that nothing in the campaign has hit them, and that the election fundamentals continue to favour them as much as they do. They should relax a bit - they were never doing so well they could be complacent, but they were always doing well, it was just a question of whether they would creep over the line into doing very well.
The wishful thinking 'disease' has spread far and wide.
EICIPM is real. EICIPM is likely. Bet accordingly, and try and move swiftly through the denial and anger phases with the help of a bottle of fine wine and a tub of Ben and Jerry's.
Exactly - anyone with an email address and a spec of cunning will know where the Tories are campaigning/targeting and how many are turning out for them seats by seat. I assume Labour and LDs are similarly vulnerable.
A poster on here FPT posted the entire list of Tory target seats within 100 miles of their home town. I'm sure anyone with two brain cells will have infiltrated that database. What happens on the ground of course is another matter.
My polling station has just changed as more volunteers are turning out - my local seats return at 3/4/5am. Can't wait to see what happens in Eastbourne and Lewes.
Jim Pickard in FT: "It is now pouring resources into another 20 to 25 “neck and neck” targets. These include Nuneaton, Pudsey, Northampton North, Vale of Glamorgan, Wirral West and Loughborough."
So Warickshire North, a seat that David Cameron had no right to gain in 2010, and is Labour's Number 1 target in 2015 with a notional majority 54 (0.1%), is "neck and neck". Friday morning could be a blood bath for Ed Miliband.
Jim Pickard in FT: "It is now pouring resources into another 20 to 25 “neck and neck” targets. These include Nuneaton, Pudsey, Northampton North, Vale of Glamorgan, Wirral West and Loughborough."
So Warickshire North, a seat that David Cameron had no right to gain in 2010, and is Labour's Number 1 target in 2015 with a notional majority 54 (0.1%), is "neck and neck". Friday morning could be a blood bath for Ed Miliband.
Werid, all the mood music seems bad for labour, but I can't understand it.
The Midlands is going to be horrible for Labour.
However, I am slightly puzzled as to why Labour is providing all this information. It does not make sense for them to do it.
Watering down their prospects, allowing them to claim *victory* with a modest result?
Meh..the numbers are the numbers, it's not like they've put out any expectations offically. This is about resources, and you put them where they're most needed.
Remember the offical word is all 'we're playing for a majority'.
I keep saying, and I keep getting accused of ramping, there is no swing against Cons in at least two hyper marginals in the north west that i have been involved in. No swing against at all. Remember, this is all like for like.
Off to see Dave.
And same in Sarf London across 6 seats. If peoples are honest and consistent then we blues are ok
Ummm... you're familiar with humans, right? (Not that I want to kick off an argument about relative levels of honesty north and south of the river).
That ICM is terrible for the tories, worst poll for weeks for them
If the tories can't get 300+ seats, they really only want about 260. 280 is a disaster
Scraping together a weak government with a smashed LD party and some borderline nutjobs who think line-dancing is the devil's work is a sure way to electoral oblivion next time.
Far better to let Ed cobble together a sh1t government and see Labour lose big style when we go again in a year or 5.
Grexit's coming, China's looking dodgy, and the NHS will sooner or later need proper reform, not just endless billions. #GoodOnetoLose ?
The wishful thinking 'disease' has spread far and wide.
EICIPM is real. EICIPM is likely. Bet accordingly, and try and move swiftly through the denial and anger phases with the help of a bottle of fine wine and a tub of Ben and Jerry's.
It's the Negotiation stages that are going to be interesting. Then Despair for Ed or Dave - but will the populace Accept the final Outcome?
Jim Pickard in FT: "It is now pouring resources into another 20 to 25 “neck and neck” targets. These include Nuneaton, Pudsey, Northampton North, Vale of Glamorgan, Wirral West and Loughborough."
So Warickshire North, a seat that David Cameron had no right to gain in 2010, and is Labour's Number 1 target in 2015 with a notional majority 54 (0.1%), is "neck and neck". Friday morning could be a blood bath for Ed Miliband.
Werid, all the mood music seems bad for labour, but I can't understand it.
The Midlands is going to be horrible for Labour.
However, I am slightly puzzled as to why Labour is providing all this information. It does not make sense for them to do it.
Watering down their prospects, allowing them to claim *victory* with a modest result?
Meh..the numbers are the numbers, it's not like they've put out any expectations offically. This is about resources, and you put them where they're most needed.
Remember the offical word is all 'we're playing for a majority'.
I keep saying, and I keep getting accused of ramping, there is no swing against Cons in at least two hyper marginals in the north west that i have been involved in. No swing against at all. Remember, this is all like for like.
Off to see Dave.
And same in Sarf London across 6 seats. If peoples are honest and consistent then we blues are ok
Ummm... you're familiar with humans, right? (Not that I want to kick off an argument about relative levels of honesty north and south of the river).
That reminds one of the three great pieces of advice given by a father to his adolescent son:
In terms of leaders visits, I did a rough survey of the last 10 to Con/Lab marginals on a thread the other week, seems relevant here again:
Median visit = Labour target 28.5 (last week 29) Mean visit = Labour target 27.3 (last week 35.2) Quartiles = 13/40 (last week 20/53)
So movement towards the Tories on some measures, but a couple of fairly top end visits last week (Finchley..., Calder Valley) might have skewed things a bit.
Get my data sources a bit more comprehensive and a natty moniker, (Pro-Ratas Index of Constituency Call-inS anyone?) and I could have go-er for next time out :-)
Mr. Bookseller, certainly possible. I think Labour might lose more to UKIP than the Conservatives do here (Morley & Outwood), but expect the collapsing Lib Dem vote to see Balls back in Parliament.
Incidentally, are you an actual bookseller?
My observation is based on observing a lot of young (admittedly not particularly well-educated, but employed) 20 somethings who might have voted Labour a generation ago, but are now turning to UKIP largely over concerns about immigration, or just good old fashioned racism. Anecdotal - but I guess we'll know in a little over 24 hours.
Comments
Perhaps I should offset my moral guilt by donating a fiver to the greens?
Anyway, as I wrote at 5:00am this morning, Labour remains largest party. I think now by almost 10-15 seats.
EICIPM is real. EICIPM is likely. Bet accordingly, and try and move swiftly through the denial and anger phases with the help of a bottle of fine wine and a tub of Ben and Jerry's.
If the tories can't get 300+ seats, they really only want about 260. 280 is a disaster
Scraping together a weak government with a smashed LD party and some borderline nutjobs who think line-dancing is the devil's work is a sure way to electoral oblivion next time.
Far better to let Ed cobble together a sh1t government and see Labour lose big style when we go again in a year or 5.
Grexit's coming, China's looking dodgy, and the NHS will sooner or later need proper reform, not just endless billions. #GoodOnetoLose ?
Look again, Young TP.
Negotiation stages that are going to be interesting. Then
Despair for Ed or Dave - but will the populace
Accept the final Outcome?
1. Never mix the grape and the grain
2. Don't go South of the River
3. Don't marry a girl with large hands
Median visit = Labour target 28.5 (last week 29)
Mean visit = Labour target 27.3 (last week 35.2)
Quartiles = 13/40 (last week 20/53)
So movement towards the Tories on some measures, but a couple of fairly top end visits last week (Finchley..., Calder Valley) might have skewed things a bit.
Get my data sources a bit more comprehensive and a natty moniker, (Pro-Ratas Index of Constituency Call-inS anyone?) and I could have go-er for next time out :-)
And, yes, I'm genuinely a bookseller :-)