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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » GE2015 Day Minus 1 – the latest polling/betting round-up

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  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830

    After that ICM poll, I'm not understanding at all the mood music towards Labour. It looks like if the mood music is right, then even PB's gold standard is wrong. I have to say, I'm quite shocked that ICM did not produce a significant Conservative lead.

    If there was serious mood music then the newspapers would have picked it up. The FT bloke names the constituencies without comment; we have seen almost nothing in the Tory papers or blogs, not even Guido, about Labour panic either - and surely we would have done if it really existed.

    I agree with that. You'd think the Telegraph and The Sun especially, would be running away with it.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    I've just sold greens in Bristol West @ 7 (available on both SPIN & Spreadex)

    Perhaps I should offset my moral guilt by donating a fiver to the greens?
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    Gold fucking standard.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Plato said:

    Paul johnson @paul__johnson
    Neck and neck: Tories 35% Lab 35% LibDems 9% Ukip 11% Greens 3% Latest Guardian/ICM poll

    Do we know England only ?

    Anyway, as I wrote at 5:00am this morning, Labour remains largest party. I think now by almost 10-15 seats.
  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    acf2310 said:

    PeterC said:

    Jim Pickard in FT: "It is now pouring resources into another 20 to 25 “neck and neck” targets. These include Nuneaton, Pudsey, Northampton North, Vale of Glamorgan, Wirral West and Loughborough."

    So Warickshire North, a seat that David Cameron had no right to gain in 2010, and is Labour's Number 1 target in 2015 with a notional majority 54 (0.1%), is "neck and neck". Friday morning could be a blood bath for Ed Miliband.

    http://blogs.ft.com/westminster/2015/05/how-scotland-has-put-a-spanner-in-labours-electoral-arithmetic/?Authorised=false

    Werid, all the mood music seems bad for labour, but I can't understand it.

    The Midlands is going to be horrible for Labour.

    However, I am slightly puzzled as to why Labour is providing all this information. It does not make sense for them to do it.

    You have to wonder why Cameron has been in places like Cornwall, Bath and Twickenham. Possibly Central Office thinks there is an adequate firewall in the Lab/Con marginals and they can go after gains from the LibDems.

    The effort in the LD seats is remarkable. I worked heavily in one ultra-marginal last time and the level of CCHQ commitment this time is on a different scale.

    Any dispatches from Halifax / Itchen / Birmingham Northfield? If there actually is a strategy to play for a majority (and the interest in Twickenham et al suggests so) you'd expect some movement in Lab-held marginals.

    Not that I'm expecting a majority, but it's interesting to try and work out just what the Tories are doing.
    Blues big in Twickers. Lab marginals may be safe! or lost!

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,978
    New Thread
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    edited May 2015
    Fenster said:

    We will now have the curious febrile background of Labour MPs going into tomorrow night's count not believing the polling and thinking they are going to lose and Tory MPs resigned to believing them and thinking they are going to lose too.
    They can't both be right.

    True enough. Unsurprisingly I tend to think its the Labour ones who are wrong, and they are just surprised that nothing in the campaign has hit them, and that the election fundamentals continue to favour them as much as they do. They should relax a bit - they were never doing so well they could be complacent, but they were always doing well, it was just a question of whether they would creep over the line into doing very well.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited May 2015
    The wishful thinking 'disease' has spread far and wide.

    EICIPM is real. EICIPM is likely. Bet accordingly, and try and move swiftly through the denial and anger phases with the help of a bottle of fine wine and a tub of Ben and Jerry's.
  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    Plato said:

    Exactly - anyone with an email address and a spec of cunning will know where the Tories are campaigning/targeting and how many are turning out for them seats by seat. I assume Labour and LDs are similarly vulnerable.

    A poster on here FPT posted the entire list of Tory target seats within 100 miles of their home town. I'm sure anyone with two brain cells will have infiltrated that database. What happens on the ground of course is another matter.

    My polling station has just changed as more volunteers are turning out - my local seats return at 3/4/5am. Can't wait to see what happens in Eastbourne and Lewes.

    Jim Pickard in FT: "It is now pouring resources into another 20 to 25 “neck and neck” targets. These include Nuneaton, Pudsey, Northampton North, Vale of Glamorgan, Wirral West and Loughborough."

    So Warickshire North, a seat that David Cameron had no right to gain in 2010, and is Labour's Number 1 target in 2015 with a notional majority 54 (0.1%), is "neck and neck". Friday morning could be a blood bath for Ed Miliband.

    http://blogs.ft.com/westminster/2015/05/how-scotland-has-put-a-spanner-in-labours-electoral-arithmetic/?Authorised=false

    Werid, all the mood music seems bad for labour, but I can't understand it.

    The Midlands is going to be horrible for Labour.

    However, I am slightly puzzled as to why Labour is providing all this information. It does not make sense for them to do it.

    Rather difficult in this day and age to hide where people are campaigning.
    That's correct, each party knows what the other is doing. The trick is can they act/re-act?

  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    Dixie said:

    notme said:

    Jim Pickard in FT: "It is now pouring resources into another 20 to 25 “neck and neck” targets. These include Nuneaton, Pudsey, Northampton North, Vale of Glamorgan, Wirral West and Loughborough."

    So Warickshire North, a seat that David Cameron had no right to gain in 2010, and is Labour's Number 1 target in 2015 with a notional majority 54 (0.1%), is "neck and neck". Friday morning could be a blood bath for Ed Miliband.

    http://blogs.ft.com/westminster/2015/05/how-scotland-has-put-a-spanner-in-labours-electoral-arithmetic/?Authorised=false

    Werid, all the mood music seems bad for labour, but I can't understand it.

    The Midlands is going to be horrible for Labour.

    However, I am slightly puzzled as to why Labour is providing all this information. It does not make sense for them to do it.

    Watering down their prospects, allowing them to claim *victory* with a modest result?
    Meh..the numbers are the numbers, it's not like they've put out any expectations offically. This is about resources, and you put them where they're most needed.

    Remember the offical word is all 'we're playing for a majority'.
    I keep saying, and I keep getting accused of ramping, there is no swing against Cons in at least two hyper marginals in the north west that i have been involved in. No swing against at all. Remember, this is all like for like.

    Off to see Dave.
    And same in Sarf London across 6 seats. If peoples are honest and consistent then we blues are ok
    Ummm... you're familiar with humans, right? (Not that I want to kick off an argument about relative levels of honesty north and south of the river).
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Offhand I would say that the Midlands/ North is 'red kippers' whereas the South is Blue kippers.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Well Betfair has completely shrugged off the ICM. No move in on Lab Most Seats at all.
  • JonCisBackJonCisBack Posts: 911
    That ICM is terrible for the tories, worst poll for weeks for them

    If the tories can't get 300+ seats, they really only want about 260. 280 is a disaster

    Scraping together a weak government with a smashed LD party and some borderline nutjobs who think line-dancing is the devil's work is a sure way to electoral oblivion next time.

    Far better to let Ed cobble together a sh1t government and see Labour lose big style when we go again in a year or 5.

    Grexit's coming, China's looking dodgy, and the NHS will sooner or later need proper reform, not just endless billions. #GoodOnetoLose ?

  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,477

    Well Betfair has completely shrugged off the ICM. No move in on Lab Most Seats at all.

    Que?

    Look again, Young TP.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Anorak said:

    The wishful thinking 'disease' has spread far and wide.

    EICIPM is real. EICIPM is likely. Bet accordingly, and try and move swiftly through the denial and anger phases with the help of a bottle of fine wine and a tub of Ben and Jerry's.

    It's the
    Negotiation stages that are going to be interesting. Then
    Despair for Ed or Dave - but will the populace
    Accept the final Outcome?
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,477
    Polruan said:

    Dixie said:

    notme said:

    Jim Pickard in FT: "It is now pouring resources into another 20 to 25 “neck and neck” targets. These include Nuneaton, Pudsey, Northampton North, Vale of Glamorgan, Wirral West and Loughborough."

    So Warickshire North, a seat that David Cameron had no right to gain in 2010, and is Labour's Number 1 target in 2015 with a notional majority 54 (0.1%), is "neck and neck". Friday morning could be a blood bath for Ed Miliband.

    http://blogs.ft.com/westminster/2015/05/how-scotland-has-put-a-spanner-in-labours-electoral-arithmetic/?Authorised=false

    Werid, all the mood music seems bad for labour, but I can't understand it.

    The Midlands is going to be horrible for Labour.

    However, I am slightly puzzled as to why Labour is providing all this information. It does not make sense for them to do it.

    Watering down their prospects, allowing them to claim *victory* with a modest result?
    Meh..the numbers are the numbers, it's not like they've put out any expectations offically. This is about resources, and you put them where they're most needed.

    Remember the offical word is all 'we're playing for a majority'.
    I keep saying, and I keep getting accused of ramping, there is no swing against Cons in at least two hyper marginals in the north west that i have been involved in. No swing against at all. Remember, this is all like for like.

    Off to see Dave.
    And same in Sarf London across 6 seats. If peoples are honest and consistent then we blues are ok
    Ummm... you're familiar with humans, right? (Not that I want to kick off an argument about relative levels of honesty north and south of the river).
    That reminds one of the three great pieces of advice given by a father to his adolescent son:

    1. Never mix the grape and the grain

    2. Don't go South of the River

    3. Don't marry a girl with large hands
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,353
    In terms of leaders visits, I did a rough survey of the last 10 to Con/Lab marginals on a thread the other week, seems relevant here again:

    Median visit = Labour target 28.5 (last week 29)
    Mean visit = Labour target 27.3 (last week 35.2)
    Quartiles = 13/40 (last week 20/53)

    So movement towards the Tories on some measures, but a couple of fairly top end visits last week (Finchley..., Calder Valley) might have skewed things a bit.

    Get my data sources a bit more comprehensive and a natty moniker, (Pro-Ratas Index of Constituency Call-inS anyone?) and I could have go-er for next time out :-)
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Now this is interesting, this late in the campaign:

    How have voters undecided in March split over the course of the #GE2015 campaign? Today's @GMB poll pic.twitter.com/mTeuV9kDqq

    — ComRes (@ComResPolls) May 6, 2015
  • booksellerbookseller Posts: 508

    Mr. Bookseller, certainly possible. I think Labour might lose more to UKIP than the Conservatives do here (Morley & Outwood), but expect the collapsing Lib Dem vote to see Balls back in Parliament.

    Incidentally, are you an actual bookseller?

    My observation is based on observing a lot of young (admittedly not particularly well-educated, but employed) 20 somethings who might have voted Labour a generation ago, but are now turning to UKIP largely over concerns about immigration, or just good old fashioned racism. Anecdotal - but I guess we'll know in a little over 24 hours.

    And, yes, I'm genuinely a bookseller :-)
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