Interesting to see Cable on manoeuvres, arguing strongly against a 2017 EU referendum (and hence, implicitly, against a Con/LD coalition).
Thought for the day:
Would the LibDems be won round to a 2017 referendum if the EU were not the only question on the ballot paper? One question for the right of the coalition ("Do you want to leave the EU?") and one for the left?
STV on the same ballot paper?
Exactly.
And I suspect Cameron would like it as a way of confusing the Out campaign.
I think Clegg would be up for an EU referendum if push came to shove. He'd be gambling, almost certainly correctly, that we'd vote to stay in. UKIP are afraid of the 2017 referendum - they know we'd vote the wrong way and knacker their USP for at least a decade.
If I were a UKIP supporter I would be looking at the SNP and be very enthusiastic about losing a 2017 EU referendum. If OUT gets one-third of the vote and UKIP can get that third of the vote to rally around their party in the way the 45% are rallying around the SNP then they would be well on to winning the next general election.
The success of the SNP in rallying the 45% is to do with the emotive power of nationalism and the dream of independence. I doubt that EU membership has comparable connotations - it's a much more pragmatic issue I would have thought.
Convergence of opinion polls: the opinion polls for the Scottish referendum converged very closely on 48:52. The actual result was 45:55.
A similar divergence of the actual polling result from the current convergence around Con 34 Lab 33 could result in Con 37 Lab 30 or Lab 36 Con 31. In either case, an overall majority would be in the offing.
I don't see the polling in this election as any more reliable than it was in the Scottish referendum.
I still don't think Labour will be stupid enough to try to go into government if they get less seats than the Tories. Whatever the constitutional rights and wrongs, the public sees it clear-cut as the party who gets most seats has "won" (according to Ashcroft's focus groups, even many Labour voters think that). Miliband might want to, but I'm hopeful the rest of the MPs will know the future of the party is more important than his personal ambition to be PM. It's in their long-term interests to (a) not be accused of a "coup", and (b) let a Tory minority government stagger on unable to actually do anything Toryish, and prepare for the next imminent election.
There was an ICM *Gold Standard* poll which put the Tories on 34% and LD on 32%.
So there's only been one poll. How long ago was it?
Sorry should of said. April 14'. So a long time ago. But I would say the fact Cam was there yesterday, and Clegg a few days ago, and the fact we have heard very little of Vince- shows it is very close!
Convergence of opinion polls: the opinion polls for the Scottish referendum converged very closely on 48:52. The actual result was 45:55.
A similar divergence of the actual polling result from the current convergence around Con 34 Lab 33 could result in Con 37 Lab 30 or Lab 36 Con 31. In either case, an overall majority would be in the offing.
I don't see the polling in this election as any more reliable than it was in the Scottish referendum.
37-30 would be good, that's a decent OM for the Tories this time around.
Labour must be thanking their lucky stars for the enduring strength and power of their brand, otherwise they well and truly would be stuffed.
I assume you're being sarcastic!
Labour is in a great position because it spent 13 years expanding relentlessly the tentacles of the state so millions now have a vested interest in putting it into power.
Though it hasn't helped much in Scotland, although of course it is now the SNP doling it out, and being rewarded at the ballot box accordingly.
I really am not. On the PM and economic competence figures, the Conservatives should be walking this. But they've spent the last 5 years allowing others to paint their prejudices onto them, and being complacent with their natural supporters.
My big mistake is that I assumed the Labour poll ratings would catch up (or, more accurately, catch down) with the poor PM and economic competence figures. They haven't because the Labour brand is still strong enough for voters to pick them on values. Or strong enough to hold them enough seats to 'win', if you like.
I think the big problem is that governments rarely gain in popularity. Swings generally go against the government from one election to the next, not the other way around.
There was an ICM *Gold Standard* poll which put the Tories on 34% and LD on 32%.
So there's only been one poll. How long ago was it?
Sorry should of said. April 14'. So a long time ago. But I would say the fact Cam was there yesterday, and Clegg a few days ago, and the fact we have heard very little of Vince- shows it is very close!
Though the April 14' poll had Ukip on 5% and Lab on 23%. Over the last 13 months the Cons have had little to squeeze from Ukip, and the LD's will have had much to squeeze from Labour (especially as Vince, despite being a Minister, is considered *one of them*).
I still don't think Labour will be stupid enough to try to go into government if they get less seats than the Tories. Whatever the constitutional rights and wrongs, the public sees it clear-cut as the party who gets most seats has "won" (according to Ashcroft's focus groups, even many Labour voters think that). Miliband might want to, but I'm hopeful the rest of the MPs will know the future of the party is more important than his personal ambition to be PM. It's in their long-term interests to (a) not be accused of a "coup", and (b) let a Tory minority government stagger on unable to actually do anything Toryish, and prepare for the next imminent election.
How individual MPs (of all parties) might behave at variance with their whips would also come into play. I would not be surprised to see several go mysteriously AWOL for some votes.
From Nats brownshirting around Glasgow to lefties writing "Tory Whore" on Tory cars to the anti-Semitic thuggery of Respect, something quite sad has happened to UK politics, and its happened quite suddenly.
You neglected to mention the Kipper who wants to 'put a bullet between the eyes' of his opponent.
Yep, them too. Our politics has become coarser and nastier, tinged with race-baiting, race hatred and ugly Nationalism. It's not pretty.
I reckon it began with Labour demonising Tories - baby eaters. That brought the discourse of hatred into British politics. And now it has spread. If you dehumanise the enemy it is OK to abuse him, or even assault him, as Hitler knew well.
Somehow I knew you'd manage to pin the blame on lefties.
Actually I think the Tories must take some blame as well. Thatcher describing striking miners as "the enemy within" was a low point for the Tory party.
However it is pretty much undeniable that the relentless discourse of dehumanising hatred mainly comes from the Left, directed at Tories for decades now - evil bankers, baby eaters, posh scum destroying the NHS etc etc. Nye Bevan called Tories "vermin" back in the 40s.
As long as this rhetoric was restricted to a few loopier lefties it was OK, but it has infected mainstream Labour discourse, and has - as I say - now spread far and wide to other parties. Indeed it is being turned ON Labour by the Nats.
It needs to stop.
It is the end of days, SeanT calls for more civility, and less insults in the world!
(I do agree with you though)
Too many insults just dilutes the quality. I'm in favour of high quality insults myself.
On the polls, I wish there was another way to describe them than being very close when Con lead by 1 or something - yes it is true, but it also means the actual result is probably not that close, as that is nailed on EICIPM territory, and maybe describing them as close explains why some people don't seem to realise a 1-2 Tory lead is no guarantee of anything really.
On the face of it seems weird UKIP picking up the Lib Dem vote....I presume something more complex is going on than that.
I presume that, broadly speaking, all parties are losing votes to UKIP and gaining votes from the Lib Dems, with the two effects mostly cancelling out except for UKIP and the Lib Dems.
Just think. In 48 hours we will all be on here, telling each other why the result was exactly what we had thought all along.
Never fear - some of us have been so unequivocal in one direcrtion if we are proven wrong even the most complex of mental gymnastics wouldn't allow for that.
Maybe I should cover myself though - I'm putting the chance of a Tory government back up to 5%.
I can't remember an election where all THREE party leaders have looked as vulnerable to post election manouvrings.
273-272-24 should be a corker for knife watchers.
Will Bennett and Farage survive as well? The changes at the top could be across the board.
I don't really see any "triggers" for Bennett - 3rd place or lower in all of Norwich South, Sheffield Central, Bristol West and losing Pavilion perhaps.
The members, in their wisdom, re-elected Bennett (to be fair to the members she was unopposed) last September. We are stuck with, I mean, we will enjoy the benefit of her leadership until September 2016 when I predict she will stand down.
Greens ought to merge the E&W and Scot parties and put Patrick H in charge. 10 times better than Nat.
There does not seem much chance of that - Mr Harvie and the Scottish Greens are pro-indy (which could turn out to be critical in the Holyrood election next year, given the electoral system).
That must be the worst example of apparently political criminal intimidation in mainland Britain for donkey's years. The environmental damage will be horrendous, it will take many tens of thousands of pounds to clear up.
That Cable has come out so publicly to speak out against a 2017 EU In-Out referendum, is telling - just how many LDs has Clegg agreed his redlines with exactly? He'll need senior colleagues on his side at the very least - and I don't just mean Alexander and Laws, either.
I think it's a dangerous development and illustrates how things could go very wrong very wrong very quickly for the LDs on Friday.
In 2010, there was reticence about going into Coalition with the Conservatives but those who would have preferred to work with Labour had not only a weak hand but were not helped by Labour's antics.
Now, the situation is very different. We've had the Coalition 1.0 Experience and it's not been pleasant though proponents will argue it has enabled some key aspects of LD policy to be successfully enacted even though the flip side has been having to support areas of CON policy with which elements in the party were profoundly uncomfortable.
The Coalition provided stable Government at a much needed time backed by a solid majority. It now seems likely that majority will disappear. Between those eager to "finish the job" and those who say "never again" are the majority who need reassurance that Coalition 2.0 will and would be a better experience for the Party.
Vince is trying to play the anti-Coalition hand in response to Nick's attempts to bounce the Party into Coalition 2.0. It's a worrying sign and I really think the LDs could potentially be in a serious place in the next few weeks.
Convergence of opinion polls: the opinion polls for the Scottish referendum converged very closely on 48:52. The actual result was 45:55.
A similar divergence of the actual polling result from the current convergence around Con 34 Lab 33 could result in Con 37 Lab 30 or Lab 36 Con 31. In either case, an overall majority would be in the offing.
I don't see the polling in this election as any more reliable than it was in the Scottish referendum.
37-30 would be good, that's a decent OM for the Tories this time around.
Taking a coffee break between a zillion phone calls, so an anecdote for amusement. Chap on my list of people who told canvassers they "liked Palmer but not Labour" said he'd always voted Tory, but, well, at age 60 he'd never, ever done anything *radical*, so just this once he'd vote Labour and see how he felt.
Eat your heart out, SeanT - some people know how to live exciting lives.
One of the 389 down! Good luck to you tomorrow, sounds like you could be in with a chance in a very close race! Do we have any other Parliamentary candidates on here?
Yes - but minor party (Pirate), so not sure it counts (and I post somewhat infrequently...)
You will be pleased to know that Pirate even have your own colour on this battleground board, ahead of Respect, no less!
I still don't think Labour will be stupid enough to try to go into government if they get less seats than the Tories. Whatever the constitutional rights and wrongs, the public sees it clear-cut as the party who gets most seats has "won" (according to Ashcroft's focus groups, even many Labour voters think that). Miliband might want to, but I'm hopeful the rest of the MPs will know the future of the party is more important than his personal ambition to be PM. It's in their long-term interests to (a) not be accused of a "coup", and (b) let a Tory minority government stagger on unable to actually do anything Toryish, and prepare for the next imminent election.
How individual MPs (of all parties) might behave at variance with their whips would also come into play. I would not be surprised to see several go mysteriously AWOL for some votes.
True in theory, but I really don't think many Labour MPs are going to be breaking the whip to vote for Tory spending cuts. While the "Blairite" relics still have disproportionate influence in the media, there are very few of them actually left in the Commons. The only thing where you could see a big Labour rebellion siding with the Tories is on a European referendum, IMO.
Actually, you could make an argument that a Tory super-minority government is exactly what the country wants: Cameron still "in charge" and attending all the international summits, but in terms of actual policies the Tories are forced to be much less extreme.
SNP has moved down slightly on SPIN. And LDs have moved up a bit. Given the latest polls, I think LDs are going to surprise on the upside. I now have them at 30.
What, with 8 and 9% ?!
I have the LDs on 9.4%. But in most constituencies they are on only 2-4%. They have collapsed completely. In the following 30, I have them ahead - some of them are very marginal.
Bath Berwick (Ash) Brecon Birming Yard (Ash) Cambridge Carshalt Ceredig Cheadle Chelten Colches Cornwal North Devon Eastbou Eastleig Hazel G Kingsto Leeds N Lewes Norfolk Orkney Sheffiel Hallam Southp St Ives Sutton & Cheam Taunton Thornb Torbay Twicken Westm Yeovil
Thank you. I have been lurking quite a lot recently, hoping to gain some wise insights into the likely election result. But nobody really has a clue, do they?
A couple of days my 9-year-old daughter heard something about "polls" on the radio and asked what they were. "Well, to try and work out the result of the election, they ask lots of people who they are going to vote for, and then they try to work out what the result will be". Daughter thought for a moment before asking: "But why don't they just wait for the election and then they'll know who's won?". .
That must be the worst example of apparently political criminal intimidation in mainland Britain for donkey's years. The environmental damage will be horrendous, it will take many tens of thousands of pounds to clear up.
That's just awful. Even worse that her parents have been targetted too. I hope the idiots that did this are found and face the full force of the law.
Opinium's internals actually appear to be another tie, tweaked by a 1% difference in certainty to vote (an implausible 87% vs 86% - that really IS a difference in online polling IMO: patience to do polls=greater likehood to vote).
@patrickwintour: Labour: Clegg looks like he is preparing to surrender party position on EU and pave the way for a renewed Coalition with the Conservatives
I still don't think Labour will be stupid enough to try to go into government if they get less seats than the Tories. Whatever the constitutional rights and wrongs, the public sees it clear-cut as the party who gets most seats has "won" (according to Ashcroft's focus groups, even many Labour voters think that). Miliband might want to, but I'm hopeful the rest of the MPs will know the future of the party is more important than his personal ambition to be PM. It's in their long-term interests to (a) not be accused of a "coup", and (b) let a Tory minority government stagger on unable to actually do anything Toryish, and prepare for the next imminent election.
How individual MPs (of all parties) might behave at variance with their whips would also come into play. I would not be surprised to see several go mysteriously AWOL for some votes.
True in theory, but I really don't think many Labour MPs are going to be breaking the whip to vote for Tory spending cuts. While the "Blairite" relics still have disproportionate influence in the media, there are very few of them actually left in the Commons. The only thing where you could see a big Labour rebellion siding with the Tories is on a European referendum, IMO.
Actually, you could make an argument that a Tory super-minority government is exactly what the country wants: Cameron still "in charge" and attending all the international summits, but in terms of actual policies the Tories are forced to be much less extreme.
They won't need to vote against the whip, just not turn up to vote for some reason. A few missed trains perhaps?
I still don't think Labour will be stupid enough to try to go into government if they get less seats than the Tories. Whatever the constitutional rights and wrongs, the public sees it clear-cut as the party who gets most seats has "won" (according to Ashcroft's focus groups, even many Labour voters think that). Miliband might want to, but I'm hopeful the rest of the MPs will know the future of the party is more important than his personal ambition to be PM. It's in their long-term interests to (a) not be accused of a "coup", and (b) let a Tory minority government stagger on unable to actually do anything Toryish, and prepare for the next imminent election.
How individual MPs (of all parties) might behave at variance with their whips would also come into play. I would not be surprised to see several go mysteriously AWOL for some votes.
True in theory, but I really don't think many Labour MPs are going to be breaking the whip to vote for Tory spending cuts. While the "Blairite" relics still have disproportionate influence in the media, there are very few of them actually left in the Commons. The only thing where you could see a big Labour rebellion siding with the Tories is on a European referendum, IMO.
Actually, you could make an argument that a Tory super-minority government is exactly what the country wants: Cameron still "in charge" and attending all the international summits, but in terms of actual policies the Tories are forced to be much less extreme.
Mmm .. novel idea. But US administrations are frequently "super-minority", I suppose.
What is it about the conservatives that makes the racist homophobe Kerry Smith endorse them?
The Enquirer (@Enquirernews) 06/05/2015 15:04 Parliamentary candidate Kerry Smith urges voters to choose Conservatives: theenquirer.co.uk/parliamentary
That must be the worst example of apparently political criminal intimidation in mainland Britain for donkey's years. The environmental damage will be horrendous, it will take many tens of thousands of pounds to clear up.
Not sure that A and S police have had much success arresting 'anarchist' outrages in last 2 years- someone torched their firearms training base, and so far no trial.
Thank you. I have been lurking quite a lot recently, hoping to gain some wise insights into the likely election result. But nobody really has a clue, do they?
A couple of days my 9-year-old daughter heard something about "polls" on the radio and asked what they were. "Well, to try and work out the result of the election, they ask lots of people who they are going to vote for, and then they try to work out what the result will be". Daughter thought for a moment before asking: "But why don't they just wait for the election and then they'll know who's won?". .
Clearly your daughter has not had her pocket money on the SNP. You should work on that.
Just back from another round of leafleting. Still interesting to see how many people who said they didn't vote last time will this time according to the polls, lets see if they turn up tomorrow. If they do EDM will be PM
Of course, if Labour have any sense then in a hung parliament where Lab + SNP don't have a majority but neither does Con+LD, they'll let Cameron remain in government for a few months, picking up unpopularity, and use the time as a window of opportunity to ditch Ed and choose someone vaguely credible, and also to start repairing SLAB
Ed won't go of his own accord, of course - his misplaced self-belief is too strong - so I expect in that scenario he'd try to become PM in a minority government propped up by the SNP and others - a recipe for utter disaster both for the country and for Labour.
The only silver lining which I can see in the current situation is that there is a chance that UKIP will do sufficiently badly to focus the minds of the centre-right on the need for discipline and unity. Maybe.
Not for the first time with the Guardian, it's hard to tell if this is a parody or not.
It isn't:
"The first woman to be raped in space has probably already been born."
Really..? Where do they get this drivel, and why the hell do they publish it?
Well, Lambert was raped in Alien by the titular creature, and that was IIRC set in about 2059. The actress was about 29 / 30 when it was made in 1978 so if that timeline proves accurate the Graun is not far wrong. Lambert will be born in about 10, 15 years.
It comes to something when lefties start bellyaching about stuff that has not happened but would be, y'know, bad in a very real sense if it did happen.
Thank you. I have been lurking quite a lot recently, hoping to gain some wise insights into the likely election result. But nobody really has a clue, do they?
A couple of days my 9-year-old daughter heard something about "polls" on the radio and asked what they were. "Well, to try and work out the result of the election, they ask lots of people who they are going to vote for, and then they try to work out what the result will be". Daughter thought for a moment before asking: "But why don't they just wait for the election and then they'll know who's won?". .
Any idea what time we can expect it? Surely we don't need to wait until tomorrow's paper is released tonight?
I think we might have to wait until this evening.
Normally Martin Boon and the Guardian's Tom Clark usually give a hint.
But they are like Trappist Monks today.
Sizeable lead for someone?
Phone poll would point to Tories?
twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/594835246866157570
Hopefully whatever it is it will be interesting (5-7% lead for someone would be fun)
It is quite interesting when you see that graphic.
The phone polls show what I guess would be described as "swing-back"...Tories from -4 to +2 in past 6 months. It is a very clear consistent movement back to the Tories
This movement has been totally overshadowed by the fact online polls basically shown only the tiniest of "swing-back" if any.
Who is right, if either, will be really interesting to see.
Labour candidate thinks awful racist homophobe independent candidate that endorsed the conservatives is joining the conservatives
BasildonYA (@BasildonYA) 06/05/2015 14:24 Mike Le Surf said he was unsurprised by the move and said he believed Kerry Smith was planning to join the Conservative group.
Labour candidate thinks awful racist homophobe independent candidate that endorsed the conservatives is joining the conservatives
BasildonYA (@BasildonYA) 06/05/2015 14:24 Mike Le Surf said he was unsurprised by the move and said he believed Kerry Smith was planning to join the Conservative group.
Hopefully someone would turnaround and say thanks but no thanks.
Just back from another round of leafleting. Still interesting to see how many people who said they didn't vote last time will this time according to the polls, lets see if they turn up tomorrow. If they do EDM will be PM
If you are leafleting, how do you know which way they voted last time?
I'm struck by just how often the esteemed members of this website seem to be called to fill in internet polls. It seems wildly disproportionate to the general population.
Labour candidate thinks awful racist homophobe independent candidate that endorsed the conservatives is joining the conservatives
BasildonYA (@BasildonYA) 06/05/2015 14:24 Mike Le Surf said he was unsurprised by the move and said he believed Kerry Smith was planning to join the Conservative group.
Hopefully someone would turnaround and say thanks but no thanks.
She won't join Lab for sure, they make the women folk sit separately and knit them red flags
@patrickwintour: Labour: Clegg looks like he is preparing to surrender party position on EU and pave the way for a renewed Coalition with the Conservatives
Reverting back to their 2005 manifesto position will be justified as pragmatism, rather than a climb-down?
The BBC’s poundshop Kilroy, Victoria Derbyshire, managed just 39,000 viewers last Thursday, rounded down to zero in the overnight ratings. It has averaged just 73,000 viewers so far.
In less than 24 hours, thousands of Russell Brand's disciples could be turning up at polling stations, only to discover that they're unable to vote.
We demand a revolution.....While, Brand will probably demand a bigger profit share from his YouTube deal given all the traffic he will have driven with his well run PR stunt.
Just back from another round of leafleting. Still interesting to see how many people who said they didn't vote last time will this time according to the polls, lets see if they turn up tomorrow. If they do EDM will be PM
If you are leafleting, how do you know which way they voted last time?
The same way phone canvassers hear one thing but their eyes told them another.
I'm struck by just how often the esteemed members of this website seem to be called to fill in internet polls. It seems wildly disproportionate to the general population.
Well, quite.
It is most fortunate that the standards of political conduct in this country absolutely rule out any of the parties trying to stack the panels in their own favour. If there were as many activists from any one given party deliberately put on there as a matter of secret party policy, as there are PBers, the resulting polls would be as reliable as a chocolate crutch. Thank God we are British.
Alot of self selection bias mind, and a strict turnout filter.
And it won't be conducted by phone or internet, though a fair proportion of people will have already been polled by a more ancient technology known as "the post"
Convergence of opinion polls: the opinion polls for the Scottish referendum converged very closely on 48:52. The actual result was 45:55.
A similar divergence of the actual polling result from the current convergence around Con 34 Lab 33 could result in Con 37 Lab 30 or Lab 36 Con 31. In either case, an overall majority would be in the offing.
I don't see the polling in this election as any more reliable than it was in the Scottish referendum.
Its an interesting comparison.
The referendum should have been quite a simple thing to poll - it was a case of measuring;
Yes (and will vote) No (and will vote) Irrelevant (won't vote).
The main problem (and the element of uncertainty) was that we didn't have any previous comparable indyrefs to calibrate ^ against.
GE2015 is a much harder beast, with loads more variables. We have a huge amount of form though, with gazillions of previous polls and dozens of actual elections to use to calibrate against.
If I had to put %ages on it, I'd guess there is a...
90% chance the result will be within +-5% of the poll average for all the parties.
50% chance the result will be within +-3% of the poll average for all the parties.
Comments
A similar divergence of the actual polling result from the current convergence around Con 34 Lab 33 could result in Con 37 Lab 30 or Lab 36 Con 31. In either case, an overall majority would be in the offing.
I don't see the polling in this election as any more reliable than it was in the Scottish referendum.
@martinboon: No Twitter teasing, no red herrings, no hints. @ICMResearch @guardian poll will be with you when it's with you. Sorry @TSEofPB
This is ICM
@MSmithsonPB: A hint of what ICM is likely to be. CEO @martinboon says he thinks final polls will "be in same territory"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11585511/Vandals-flood-Conservative-MPs-garden-with-1300-litres-of-oil.html
On the polls, I wish there was another way to describe them than being very close when Con lead by 1 or something - yes it is true, but it also means the actual result is probably not that close, as that is nailed on EICIPM territory, and maybe describing them as close explains why some people don't seem to realise a 1-2 Tory lead is no guarantee of anything really.
This is rather similar to the Bergeron-Findeison process.
Well I tried.
Maybe I should cover myself though - I'm putting the chance of a Tory government back up to 5%.
So we're still waiting on?
Panelbase today
ICM today
Ipsos MORI tomorrow
Ashcroft tomorrow
They spend their money as they see fit. They appear, in general, to be far more frugal with our money than Labour ever are.
In 2010, there was reticence about going into Coalition with the Conservatives but those who would have preferred to work with Labour had not only a weak hand but were not helped by Labour's antics.
Now, the situation is very different. We've had the Coalition 1.0 Experience and it's not been pleasant though proponents will argue it has enabled some key aspects of LD policy to be successfully enacted even though the flip side has been having to support areas of CON policy with which elements in the party were profoundly uncomfortable.
The Coalition provided stable Government at a much needed time backed by a solid majority. It now seems likely that majority will disappear. Between those eager to "finish the job" and those who say "never again" are the majority who need reassurance that Coalition 2.0 will and would be a better experience for the Party.
Vince is trying to play the anti-Coalition hand in response to Nick's attempts to bounce the Party into Coalition 2.0. It's a worrying sign and I really think the LDs could potentially be in a serious place in the next few weeks.
Normally Martin Boon and the Guardian's Tom Clark usually give a hint.
But they are like Trappist Monks today.
Actually, you could make an argument that a Tory super-minority government is exactly what the country wants: Cameron still "in charge" and attending all the international summits, but in terms of actual policies the Tories are forced to be much less extreme.
Bath
Berwick (Ash)
Brecon
Birming Yard (Ash)
Cambridge
Carshalt
Ceredig
Cheadle
Chelten
Colches
Cornwal North
Devon
Eastbou
Eastleig
Hazel G
Kingsto
Leeds N
Lewes
Norfolk
Orkney
Sheffiel Hallam
Southp
St Ives
Sutton & Cheam
Taunton
Thornb
Torbay
Twicken
Westm
Yeovil
A couple of days my 9-year-old daughter heard something about "polls" on the radio and asked what they were. "Well, to try and work out the result of the election, they ask lots of people who they are going to vote for, and then they try to work out what the result will be". Daughter thought for a moment before asking: "But why don't they just wait for the election and then they'll know who's won?". .
Though I agree its unlikely.
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/594835246866157570
The Enquirer (@Enquirernews)
06/05/2015 15:04
Parliamentary candidate Kerry Smith urges voters to choose Conservatives: theenquirer.co.uk/parliamentary
http://www.bristol247.com/channel/news-comment/daily/politics/election-2015-every-vote-counts-in-bristol
Ed won't go of his own accord, of course - his misplaced self-belief is too strong - so I expect in that scenario he'd try to become PM in a minority government propped up by the SNP and others - a recipe for utter disaster both for the country and for Labour.
The only silver lining which I can see in the current situation is that there is a chance that UKIP will do sufficiently badly to focus the minds of the centre-right on the need for discipline and unity. Maybe.
It comes to something when lefties start bellyaching about stuff that has not happened but would be, y'know, bad in a very real sense if it did happen.
The phone polls show what I guess would be described as "swing-back"...Tories from -4 to +2 in past 6 months. It is a very clear consistent movement back to the Tories
This movement has been totally overshadowed by the fact online polls basically shown only the tiniest of "swing-back" if any.
Who is right, if either, will be really interesting to see.
BasildonYA (@BasildonYA)
06/05/2015 14:24
Mike Le Surf said he was unsurprised by the move and said he believed Kerry Smith was planning to join the Conservative group.
And then I have to rush from the Midlands to Ilford to vote - yes, I know a postal ballot would have saved the trip!
Alot of self selection bias mind, and a strict turnout filter.
Couldn't happen to a nicer person...
It is most fortunate that the standards of political conduct in this country absolutely rule out any of the parties trying to stack the panels in their own favour. If there were as many activists from any one given party deliberately put on there as a matter of secret party policy, as there are PBers, the resulting polls would be as reliable as a chocolate crutch. Thank God we are British.
The referendum should have been quite a simple thing to poll - it was a case of measuring;
Yes (and will vote)
No (and will vote)
Irrelevant (won't vote).
The main problem (and the element of uncertainty) was that we didn't have any previous comparable indyrefs to calibrate ^ against.
GE2015 is a much harder beast, with loads more variables. We have a huge amount of form though, with gazillions of previous polls and dozens of actual elections to use to calibrate against.
If I had to put %ages on it, I'd guess there is a...
90% chance the result will be within +-5% of the poll average for all the parties.
50% chance the result will be within +-3% of the poll average for all the parties.
06/05/2015 15:55
#JeSuisEd: Ed Miliband supporters tweet messy food selfies tgr.ph/1Ighlel