Farage looks a ridiculously short priced favourite to me at 6/4 in a field of 7. I think both Sturgeon and Wood should struggle given the size of their natural constituencies and Bennett has already proved herself to be out of her depth in interviews. But Sturgeon is only 9/1 best price and as short at 6/1 so I am probably missing something in analysing her chances.
Both Cameron and Miliband look decent value at 7/2 and 9/2 respectively. But Clegg looks the value bet to me at 12/1. He's got form in winning the first UK 2010 debate and comes into this on the back of poor poll ratings and low expectations.
@Dair Danczuk was sitting on a majority of 889, he has raised his profile over the last 5 years, and so too has his wife, but will tonight's story do enough to turf him out?
A few pre-debate musings before the gladiators enter the arena.
I think the Q&A part of the debate is likely to pass off without too much blood spilled. Each participant will give their pre-rehearsed sound bites that we've heard regularly enough. Points will be gained through body language, delivery and a sense of confidence. Some may even be convinced by what is said.
I expect the fireworks will come during each of the 18 minute open debate sections. The positioning of Sturgeon next to Cameron offers the prospect of the First Minister burnishing her anti-Conservatives credentials with a full throated denunciation. How will Cameron respond. He has to be careful not do the "calm down dear" tactic.
Farage is the other joker in the pack. This is his chance. IMO tonight is sh*t or bust. Fail to deliver and the present slow slide of Ukip will gather pace. OTOH he has the capability and presence to barn storm the proceedings.
If both these possibilities come to pass both Miliband and Clegg will be bystanders and suffer accordingly.
But Clegg looks the value bet to me at 12/1. He's got form in winning the first UK 2010 debate and comes into this on the back of poor poll ratings and low expectations.
I'm hoping for a multiple Cleggasm!
@SamCoatesTimes: Apparently at some of the recent Tory rehearsals for tonight's debate, the Clegg character (Hunt) wiped the floor. Yes, I'm surprised too..
@SamCoatesTimes: ... apparently the simplicity of the Clegg message cut through easily in the Tory rehearsal...
It is possible they weren't trying to join ISIS and had another reason to get out of the country as quickly as possible....
An amazing offer on Islamist version of PriceLine that they just couldn't turn down. A 5* all inclusive spring break for 9, just no mention of which country it was located in?
It's too big an opportunity for Farage not to go with this tonight. None of the others will touch it for obvious reasons but Farage has an open goal and he's 6 yards out.
But Clegg looks the value bet to me at 12/1. He's got form in winning the first UK 2010 debate and comes into this on the back of poor poll ratings and low expectations.
I'm hoping for a multiple Cleggasm!
@SamCoatesTimes: Apparently at some of the recent Tory rehearsals for tonight's debate, the Clegg character (Hunt) wiped the floor. Yes, I'm surprised too..
@SamCoatesTimes: ... apparently the simplicity of the Clegg message cut through easily in the Tory rehearsal...
I think Clegg has got a good story to tell. Responsibility in government, prepared to compromise in the national interest, tough decisions, a check on the Tories, credit for contributing to the economic recovery .....
But Clegg looks the value bet to me at 12/1. He's got form in winning the first UK 2010 debate and comes into this on the back of poor poll ratings and low expectations.
I'm hoping for a multiple Cleggasm!
@SamCoatesTimes: Apparently at some of the recent Tory rehearsals for tonight's debate, the Clegg character (Hunt) wiped the floor. Yes, I'm surprised too..
@SamCoatesTimes: ... apparently the simplicity of the Clegg message cut through easily in the Tory rehearsal...
And that's #53 of #810 reasons I dislike the debates: it has people preparing for pointless, meaningless dross rather than getting on with their real jobs. The same could be said for PMQs, except most weeks a backbenchers risks the wrath of the whips to ask a question of genuine interest to their constituents or the nation.
I don’t want to be branded as a conspiracy theorist, but I study what’s going on, research it, think about it, and draw conclusions. And what I see going on right now in the mainstream media, and from the lips of LibLabCon politicians, is a consistent “narrative” which is based on the premise of:
“UKIP is still a minority party, who have quite a few fruitcakes in their ranks, whose policies aren’t well formed, who have some nasty tendencies and whose voters will desert them for us in the election.”
Try it, test everything you see in the media against that “narrative” (with some notable exceptions such as the Express and Star on a good day, and Breitbart on most days) and I think my point is proven.
But Clegg looks the value bet to me at 12/1. He's got form in winning the first UK 2010 debate and comes into this on the back of poor poll ratings and low expectations.
I'm hoping for a multiple Cleggasm!
@SamCoatesTimes: Apparently at some of the recent Tory rehearsals for tonight's debate, the Clegg character (Hunt) wiped the floor. Yes, I'm surprised too..
@SamCoatesTimes: ... apparently the simplicity of the Clegg message cut through easily in the Tory rehearsal...
I think Clegg has got a good story to tell. Responsibility in government, prepared to compromise in the national interest, tough decisions, a check on the Tories, credit for contributing to the economic recovery .....
The question is whether people have wised up to that kind of Clintonian/Blairite triangulation and if it works anymore. I suspect people will want clear vision not someone who cleverly plays the system in the middle.
Labour went into that election knowing that it couldn't win a majority. So it decided to run a scorched earth campaign coupled with a frantic defense. For its stated aim of blocking a Tory majority it was an excellent campaign.
Maybe the Tories are just trying to prevent a Lab majority?
No: Labour's campaign in 2010 was one of fear ("they will turn you out on the streets and take away the things you need to live"). The Tories are pointing out, in their view, that Labour is unprepared for government. There's a difference.
I don’t want to be branded as a conspiracy theorist, but I study what’s going on, research it, think about it, and draw conclusions. And what I see going on right now in the mainstream media, and from the lips of LibLabCon politicians, is a consistent “narrative” which is based on the premise of:
“UKIP is still a minority party, who have quite a few fruitcakes in their ranks, whose policies aren’t well formed, who have some nasty tendencies and whose voters will desert them for us in the election.”
Try it, test everything you see in the media against that “narrative” (with some notable exceptions such as the Express and Star on a good day, and Breitbart on most days) and I think my point is proven.
Just because it's a media narrative doesn't mean it isn't true.
UKIP are a minority party and on course for 10% of the vote. UKIP are filled with fruitcakes, often discards from other parties. Said fruitcakes and discards have some very, very nasty tendencies.
UKIP is an extreme right wing race hate party, founded on the principle of gaining votes by "Othering". They lie about immigrants, they lie about the EU. Anything with a grain of truth they say is distorted until meaningless.
I don’t want to be branded as a conspiracy theorist, but I study what’s going on, research it, think about it, and draw conclusions. And what I see going on right now in the mainstream media, and from the lips of LibLabCon politicians, is a consistent “narrative” which is based on the premise of:
“UKIP is still a minority party, who have quite a few fruitcakes in their ranks, whose policies aren’t well formed, who have some nasty tendencies and whose voters will desert them for us in the election.”
Try it, test everything you see in the media against that “narrative” (with some notable exceptions such as the Express and Star on a good day, and Breitbart on most days) and I think my point is proven.
Just because it's a media narrative doesn't mean it isn't true.
UKIP are a minority party and on course for 10% of the vote. UKIP are filled with fruitcakes, often discards from other parties. Said fruitcakes and discards have some very, very nasty tendencies.
UKIP is an extreme right wing race hate party, founded on the principle of gaining votes by "Othering". They lie about immigrants, they lie about the EU. Anything with a grain of truth they say is distorted until meaningless.
Cheers for that. It's nice to get such an impartial observer's opinion every now and then. Breaks up the partisan stuff.
Might be of interest to the historians / military fans / railway nuts.
Just from the title I suspect it'll not appeal to any of those listed. I'd probably classify myself as o the periphery of all of your 3 categories. I'm 99% sure I'll finish up wanting more focus rather than a 'please all' programme.
Labour went into that election knowing that it couldn't win a majority. So it decided to run a scorched earth campaign ...
Party before Country, as always.
Spot on. The only patriotic thing to have done would have been to stand down and not to contest the election. I am continually outraged that any party stands against the Tories. How dare they act against the national interest in that way?
That wasn't Watcher's point.
Labour behaved dreadfully in the run up to the last election, from setting landmines to deferring key decisions to utterly petty decisions like cutting the PM's salary.
That is worthy of criticism.
Osborne could have gone for a tax-cutting, handout driven budget. But he didn't. If he had, I would have criticised him for putting Party before Country. Of course you can argue that Osborne didn't because he couldn't (either because of the facts of life, or because of the LibDems) but the facts of the matter are that he didn't.
Never mind the debates. Look what's about to come hurtling over the horizon.
'Greece will go bankrupt in seven days, government officials have told their creditors as the fragile trust between the debtor country and its lenders shows no signs of repairing.'
But Clegg looks the value bet to me at 12/1. He's got form in winning the first UK 2010 debate and comes into this on the back of poor poll ratings and low expectations.
I'm hoping for a multiple Cleggasm!
@SamCoatesTimes: Apparently at some of the recent Tory rehearsals for tonight's debate, the Clegg character (Hunt) wiped the floor. Yes, I'm surprised too..
@SamCoatesTimes: ... apparently the simplicity of the Clegg message cut through easily in the Tory rehearsal...
And that's #53 of #810 reasons I dislike the debates: it has people preparing for pointless, meaningless dross rather than getting on with their real jobs. The same could be said for PMQs, except most weeks a backbenchers risks the wrath of the whips to ask a question of genuine interest to their constituents or the nation.
But what do you propose? No election campaign? Democracy is not perfect but we have to have a way to assess the qualities of our potential leaders. Andrew Cooper wrote in The Guardian about how the debates will add nothing and are a waste of time. Fine but propose an alternative. Too many of these people seem to think it's rather demeaning of our enlightened leaders to have to abase themselves in front of the plebs. Is scrutiny beneath them?
According to Mr Ahmed, the others being held include Waheed's aunt Zadia Bi, 50, two of Zadia's sons and one of the son's wives, the Manchester Evening News reports. The couple also have two children who were among the four children detained.
But Clegg looks the value bet to me at 12/1. He's got form in winning the first UK 2010 debate and comes into this on the back of poor poll ratings and low expectations.
I'm hoping for a multiple Cleggasm!
@SamCoatesTimes: Apparently at some of the recent Tory rehearsals for tonight's debate, the Clegg character (Hunt) wiped the floor. Yes, I'm surprised too..
@SamCoatesTimes: ... apparently the simplicity of the Clegg message cut through easily in the Tory rehearsal...
And that's #53 of #810 reasons I dislike the debates: it has people preparing for pointless, meaningless dross rather than getting on with their real jobs. The same could be said for PMQs, except most weeks a backbenchers risks the wrath of the whips to ask a question of genuine interest to their constituents or the nation.
But what do you propose? No election campaign? Democracy is not perfect but we have to have a way to assess the qualities of our potential leaders. Andrew Cooper wrote in The Guardian about how the debates will add nothing and are a waste of time. Fine but propose an alternative. Too many of these people seem to think it's rather demeaning of our enlightened leaders to have to abase themselves in front of the plebs. Is scrutiny beneath them?
We've managed a few hundred years of election campaigns - some of them even democratic - without debates. Considering they add f'all to human knowledge and exist only to give TV and newspaper execs hard-ons, why have them?
And this is not a presidential election. We vote for MPs, not national leaders. We should not be moving even further towards the latter, which just gives more power to the parties (boo, hiss).
But Clegg looks the value bet to me at 12/1. He's got form in winning the first UK 2010 debate and comes into this on the back of poor poll ratings and low expectations.
I'm hoping for a multiple Cleggasm!
@SamCoatesTimes: Apparently at some of the recent Tory rehearsals for tonight's debate, the Clegg character (Hunt) wiped the floor. Yes, I'm surprised too..
@SamCoatesTimes: ... apparently the simplicity of the Clegg message cut through easily in the Tory rehearsal...
And that's #53 of #810 reasons I dislike the debates: it has people preparing for pointless, meaningless dross rather than getting on with their real jobs. The same could be said for PMQs, except most weeks a backbenchers risks the wrath of the whips to ask a question of genuine interest to their constituents or the nation.
The point about PMQ is - to some extent - it forces the PM to be briefed and reasonably up to speed on the full range of governmental matters
I don’t want to be branded as a conspiracy theorist, but I study what’s going on, research it, think about it, and draw conclusions. And what I see going on right now in the mainstream media, and from the lips of LibLabCon politicians, is a consistent “narrative” which is based on the premise of:
“UKIP is still a minority party, who have quite a few fruitcakes in their ranks, whose policies aren’t well formed, who have some nasty tendencies and whose voters will desert them for us in the election.”
Try it, test everything you see in the media against that “narrative” (with some notable exceptions such as the Express and Star on a good day, and Breitbart on most days) and I think my point is proven.
Just because it's a media narrative doesn't mean it isn't true.
UKIP are a minority party and on course for 10% of the vote. UKIP are filled with fruitcakes, often discards from other parties. Said fruitcakes and discards have some very, very nasty tendencies.
UKIP is an extreme right wing race hate party, founded on the principle of gaining votes by "Othering". They lie about immigrants, they lie about the EU. Anything with a grain of truth they say is distorted until meaningless.
The YouGov slider poll thingy is by invitation. You're invited to download the app and watch the first hour sliding left to right depending on if you approve of what's being said.
Labour has removed a signatory from a letter of support amid claims that she was a benefits cheat who conned the state out of nearly £30,000.
She claimed tax credits and child benefits for three children, two of whom did not live with her, even though she was barred from making claims because she was under "immigration control".
She subsequently moved in with a new partner but went on to submit tax credits as a single person, claiming nearly £30,000 over three years.
Her "husband" went on to work for HMRC as a security officer. They both also admitted to allowing others to use their names and national insurance numbers to work illegally in the UK.
The YouGov slider poll thingy is by invitation. You're invited to download the app and watch the first hour sliding left to right depending on if you approve of what's being said.
I think UKIP has the most to lose tonight and the fewest ways to avoid losing badly. The dynamics of the debate are poor for them. Attacks on Cameron for not being conservative enough will be undermined by being followed by five other leaders accusing Cameron of being "too conservative" and the failure to be able to follow-up will make Farage look pathetic. Furthermore his options are limited to defending Cameron from those attacks and looking redundant, or joining in populist ones accusing Cameron of abandoning British workers and the unemployed, and looking as if he is joining a leftwing/nationalist pile-on. At the same this whole thing will remind right-wing voters who they let in by voting for UKIP. And Farage has been declared the "favorite" by morons on the media with no strategic sense.
Farage has to make a credible case that there is some value in voting for UKIP and I really don't see how he does it. If the Tories end up winning a majority or a near majority with UKIP at 6.5% of the vote, it will start tonight.
If I was a Tory strategist tonight I'd be trying to get Ed to sneer. It's an unattractive trait in all of us, and Ed does it very well - and thus poorly for his prospects.
I'm wondering whether Cameron could be in for it tonight. You've surely got 4 people who are going to engage in endless Tory-bashing and two others who'll do a fair bit of it too.
If Natalie gets stuck again tonight she could always resort to the Father Jack approach 'That would be an ecumenical matter'
She is beyond terrible. It's a tragedy for 'Green' issues that Caroline Lucas isn't there. They're both wrong of course, but it's harder to work out why CL is. (Issue by issue of course a stopped clock can work too)
If Natalie gets stuck again tonight she could always resort to the Father Jack approach 'That would be an ecumenical matter'
She is beyond terrible. It's a tragedy for 'Green' issues that Caroline Lucas isn't there. They're both wrong of course, but it's harder to work out why CL is. (Issue by issue of course a stopped clock can work too)
Tim Stanley @timothy_stanley 18s18 seconds ago Natalie Bennett has the words "Green party" written on the back of her hand. #leadersdebate
But Clegg looks the value bet to me at 12/1. He's got form in winning the first UK 2010 debate and comes into this on the back of poor poll ratings and low expectations.
I'm hoping for a multiple Cleggasm!
@SamCoatesTimes: Apparently at some of the recent Tory rehearsals for tonight's debate, the Clegg character (Hunt) wiped the floor. Yes, I'm surprised too..
@SamCoatesTimes: ... apparently the simplicity of the Clegg message cut through easily in the Tory rehearsal...
And that's #53 of #810 reasons I dislike the debates: it has people preparing for pointless, meaningless dross rather than getting on with their real jobs. The same could be said for PMQs, except most weeks a backbenchers risks the wrath of the whips to ask a question of genuine interest to their constituents or the nation.
But what do you propose? No election campaign? Democracy is not perfect but we have to have a way to assess the qualities of our potential leaders. Andrew Cooper wrote in The Guardian about how the debates will add nothing and are a waste of time. Fine but propose an alternative. Too many of these people seem to think it's rather demeaning of our enlightened leaders to have to abase themselves in front of the plebs. Is scrutiny beneath them?
We've managed a few hundred years of election campaigns - some of them even democratic - without debates. Considering they add f'all to human knowledge and exist only to give TV and newspaper execs hard-ons, why have them?
And this is not a presidential election. We vote for MPs, not national leaders. We should not be moving even further towards the latter, which just gives more power to the parties (boo, hiss).
Agreed.
Anyway have fun all who watch it.
I won't be - watching seven egomaniacs competing to tell the most convincing lies isn't my idea of fun or of enlightenment.
The YouGov slider poll thingy is by invitation. You're invited to download the app and watch the first hour sliding left to right depending on if you approve of what's being said.
"watch the first hour sliding left to right"
Won't that wear a hole in your trousers?
Somewhat peeved. Been out all day on a Mesolithic dig and got back about 7.50 to find I had a yougov invite to do the slider but had missed the deadline.
Farage and Clegg already diminished by coming after Bennett. Sturgeon looked more serious in proportion to her greater distance from the Greens. Also these speaking times are too short, and reinforcing the comedy skit atmosphere.
Comments
Both Cameron and Miliband look decent value at 7/2 and 9/2 respectively. But Clegg looks the value bet to me at 12/1. He's got form in winning the first UK 2010 debate and comes into this on the back of poor poll ratings and low expectations.
I'm hoping for a multiple Cleggasm!
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/constituency/d71.stm
(My handwriting was so poor that relatives said I should become a GP).
It is possible they weren't trying to join ISIS and had another reason to get out of the country as quickly as possible....
I think the Q&A part of the debate is likely to pass off without too much blood spilled. Each participant will give their pre-rehearsed sound bites that we've heard regularly enough. Points will be gained through body language, delivery and a sense of confidence. Some may even be convinced by what is said.
I expect the fireworks will come during each of the 18 minute open debate sections. The positioning of Sturgeon next to Cameron offers the prospect of the First Minister burnishing her anti-Conservatives credentials with a full throated denunciation. How will Cameron respond. He has to be careful not do the "calm down dear" tactic.
Farage is the other joker in the pack. This is his chance. IMO tonight is sh*t or bust. Fail to deliver and the present slow slide of Ukip will gather pace. OTOH he has the capability and presence to barn storm the proceedings.
If both these possibilities come to pass both Miliband and Clegg will be bystanders and suffer accordingly.
This is a spoof right?
But Cameron has done "heat" magazine...the video trailer for that was cringe-worthy. I hate to think what the actual interview will be like.
@SamCoatesTimes: ... apparently the simplicity of the Clegg message cut through easily in the Tory rehearsal...
I don’t want to be branded as a conspiracy theorist, but I study what’s going on, research it, think about it, and draw conclusions. And what I see going on right now in the mainstream media, and from the lips of LibLabCon politicians, is a consistent “narrative” which is based on the premise of:
“UKIP is still a minority party, who have quite a few fruitcakes in their ranks, whose policies aren’t well formed, who have some nasty tendencies and whose voters will desert them for us in the election.”
Try it, test everything you see in the media against that “narrative” (with some notable exceptions such as the Express and Star on a good day, and Breitbart on most days) and I think my point is proven.
UKIP are a minority party and on course for 10% of the vote.
UKIP are filled with fruitcakes, often discards from other parties.
Said fruitcakes and discards have some very, very nasty tendencies.
UKIP is an extreme right wing race hate party, founded on the principle of gaining votes by "Othering". They lie about immigrants, they lie about the EU. Anything with a grain of truth they say is distorted until meaningless.
I remember when he was claiming that Labour were going to sweep Cornwall
Breaks up the partisan stuff.
Labour behaved dreadfully in the run up to the last election, from setting landmines to deferring key decisions to utterly petty decisions like cutting the PM's salary.
That is worthy of criticism.
Osborne could have gone for a tax-cutting, handout driven budget. But he didn't. If he had, I would have criticised him for putting Party before Country. Of course you can argue that Osborne didn't because he couldn't (either because of the facts of life, or because of the LibDems) but the facts of the matter are that he didn't.
And where can we find the yougov slider, I found the telegraph twitter worm:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/politics-blog/11512203/Election-debates-Who-does-Twitter-think-is-winning.html
spinner or someone who hasn't being paying attention.
Edit:
http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0018154
Bit of a family vacation...
And this is not a presidential election. We vote for MPs, not national leaders. We should not be moving even further towards the latter, which just gives more power to the parties (boo, hiss).
Labour has removed a signatory from a letter of support amid claims that she was a benefits cheat who conned the state out of nearly £30,000.
She claimed tax credits and child benefits for three children, two of whom did not live with her, even though she was barred from making claims because she was under "immigration control".
She subsequently moved in with a new partner but went on to submit tax credits as a single person, claiming nearly £30,000 over three years.
Her "husband" went on to work for HMRC as a security officer. They both also admitted to allowing others to use their names and national insurance numbers to work illegally in the UK.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/11512051/Labour-forced-to-remove-suspected-benefits-cheat-from-letter-of-support.html
These dick waving letters always end up like this, but given Labour reputation on benefits and immigration, this is a double whammy.
Won't that wear a hole in your trousers?
Farage has to make a credible case that there is some value in voting for UKIP and I really don't see how he does it. If the Tories end up winning a majority or a near majority with UKIP at 6.5% of the vote, it will start tonight.
@tnewtondunn: Watching #leadersdebate? Follow how well the 7 party leaders are doing live on The Sun's Twitter Worm here; http://t.co/bEC3Qu6blr
That simple thing is all they need.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2015/apr/02/iran-talks-framework-deal-announcement-eu-live
Natalie Bennett has the words "Green party" written on the back of her hand. #leadersdebate
Anyway have fun all who watch it.
I won't be - watching seven egomaniacs competing to tell the most convincing lies isn't my idea of fun or of enlightenment.
Ho hum.
Good opening from Clegg.
Sturgeon Ok
Cameron solid and straight forward
My old dad reckons Julie Etchingham's jacket looks like a dentist's coat
Have I missed anything?
"If I'm Prime Minister ...."
Do the punters see it in him ?