Just two seats are of any consequence for the Tories in Scotland:
aren't there a couple of chances in Edinburgh? Is it possible some centre left unionists could chuck in their lot with the tories to avoid an SNP MP???
Stale prices now - but this is where they were under 20/1 last week:
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale 2/5 - this is the one they have Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk 11/8 - this is the LD gain possibility, looking like a bet at this price IMO Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine 3/1 - 3rd favs here, but a live chance if they can maintain 30% Dumfries and Galloway 7/1 - 3rd favs here to gain from Labour, again maintaining about 31% gives them half a chance Perth and North Perthshire 12/1 - this is SNP already, very unlikely though a No area Edinburgh South West 14/1 - Darling's seat, but they only start on 24%, split Unionist vote may well hand this to SNP Edinburgh West 16/1 - Ditto, currently LD, quite hard to see anything other than SNP now
The 20/1 in Renfrewshire East on the Conservatives might be worth thinking about. With Jim Murphy potentially standing down (he seems to be dithering on this), the 30% that the Conservatives start on may prove a useful base, particularly if the SNP make disproportionate inroads into the Yes vote in this very middle class constituency's Labour base.
NB I'm not predicting a Conservative win, merely noting that 20/1 is worth thinking about.
Dumfries & Galloway looks on paper a reasonable punt at 7/1
I'm on this at 8/1 thanks to DavidL persuading me that it was worth a go in October when I put up one of my many pieces on Scotland.
Just two seats are of any consequence for the Tories in Scotland:
aren't there a couple of chances in Edinburgh? Is it possible some centre left unionists could chuck in their lot with the tories to avoid an SNP MP???
Stale prices now - but this is where they were under 20/1 last week:
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale 2/5 - this is the one they have Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk 11/8 - this is the LD gain possibility, looking like a bet at this price IMO Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine 3/1 - 3rd favs here, but a live chance if they can maintain 30% Dumfries and Galloway 7/1 - 3rd favs here to gain from Labour, again maintaining about 31% gives them half a chance Perth and North Perthshire 12/1 - this is SNP already, very unlikely though a No area Edinburgh South West 14/1 - Darling's seat, but they only start on 24%, split Unionist vote may well hand this to SNP Edinburgh West 16/1 - Ditto, currently LD, quite hard to see anything other than SNP now
The 20/1 in Renfrewshire East on the Conservatives might be worth thinking about. With Jim Murphy potentially standing down (he seems to be dithering on this), the 30% that the Conservatives start on may prove a useful base, particularly if the SNP make disproportionate inroads into the Yes vote in this very middle class constituency's Labour base.
NB I'm not predicting a Conservative win, merely noting that 20/1 is worth thinking about.
Dumfries & Galloway looks on paper a reasonable punt at 7/1
It looks fair - if Russell Brown were standing down I'd be far more tempted.
Just two seats are of any consequence for the Tories in Scotland:
aren't there a couple of chances in Edinburgh? Is it possible some centre left unionists could chuck in their lot with the tories to avoid an SNP MP???
Stale prices now - but this is where they were under 20/1 last week:
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale 2/5 - this is the one they have Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk 11/8 - this is the LD gain possibility, looking like a bet at this price IMO Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine 3/1 - 3rd favs here, but a live chance if they can maintain 30% Dumfries and Galloway 7/1 - 3rd favs here to gain from Labour, again maintaining about 31% gives them half a chance Perth and North Perthshire 12/1 - this is SNP already, very unlikely though a No area Edinburgh South West 14/1 - Darling's seat, but they only start on 24%, split Unionist vote may well hand this to SNP Edinburgh West 16/1 - Ditto, currently LD, quite hard to see anything other than SNP now
The 20/1 in Renfrewshire East on the Conservatives might be worth thinking about. With Jim Murphy potentially standing down (he seems to be dithering on this), the 30% that the Conservatives start on may prove a useful base, particularly if the SNP make disproportionate inroads into the Yes vote in this very middle class constituency's Labour base.
NB I'm not predicting a Conservative win, merely noting that 20/1 is worth thinking about.
20/1 in Fife North East (Ming's seat) doesn't look terrible either.
The Conservatives start from just too low a base there, I think, at 22%. The SNP look unstoppable there to me.
@georgeeaton Posted at tweets: Striking how high Tory morale and unity is at the moment. Feuds suspended until after the election. #PMQs"
Surely the main thing PMQs can affect - clearly they don't run that far into the country; they start in the chamber, get mangled by the political press, and might throw one or two tit-bits for the chattering classes.
This high Tory morale reminds me somehow of Labour's Sheffield hubris in 1992.
It's the unity that's more relevant, surely? Unity means they know it's tight but think they can win. Labour's unity is crumbling; draw your own conclusions.
Labour's supposed disunity is because Ed is looking likely to win and the Blairites are absolutely terrified.
Anyone else want to draw different conclusions? Just so that I have a representative sample.
Rotherham Council condemned as "not fit for purpose" by the Casey Report.
Tell us something we don't know.
My colleagues are definitely UKIP for the GE I think, though they have moved out of the Rotherham constituency.
UKIP should focus all their Yorkshire resources into Rother Valley and Rotherham, two very winnable seats.
They shouldn't forget Stocksbridge & Penistone though where they topped the poll in 2014.
A constituency poll there would be interesting.
And just what is UKIPs policy for the Rother Valley? Privatise the NHS? The NHS that is the 'biggest waste of money in the UK' and at 'at the heart of this, the Reichstag bunker of socialism'? Is this what Labour voters are going for? Or do the voters of Rother Valley approve of weaponising child abuse?
Just two seats are of any consequence for the Tories in Scotland:
aren't there a couple of chances in Edinburgh? Is it possible some centre left unionists could chuck in their lot with the tories to avoid an SNP MP???
Stale prices now - but this is where they were under 20/1 last week:
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale 2/5 - this is the one they have Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk 11/8 - this is the LD gain possibility, looking like a bet at this price IMO Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine 3/1 - 3rd favs here, but a live chance if they can maintain 30% Dumfries and Galloway 7/1 - 3rd favs here to gain from Labour, again maintaining about 31% gives them half a chance Perth and North Perthshire 12/1 - this is SNP already, very unlikely though a No area Edinburgh South West 14/1 - Darling's seat, but they only start on 24%, split Unionist vote may well hand this to SNP Edinburgh West 16/1 - Ditto, currently LD, quite hard to see anything other than SNP now
The 20/1 in Renfrewshire East on the Conservatives might be worth thinking about. With Jim Murphy potentially standing down (he seems to be dithering on this), the 30% that the Conservatives start on may prove a useful base, particularly if the SNP make disproportionate inroads into the Yes vote in this very middle class constituency's Labour base.
NB I'm not predicting a Conservative win, merely noting that 20/1 is worth thinking about.
20/1 in Fife North East (Ming's seat) doesn't look terrible either.
The Conservatives start from just too low a base there, I think, at 22%. The SNP look unstoppable there to me.
Lol, the SNP base is 14%! But I know what you mean.
Rotherham Council condemned as "not fit for purpose" by the Casey Report.
Tell us something we don't know.
My colleagues are definitely UKIP for the GE I think, though they have moved out of the Rotherham constituency.
UKIP should focus all their Yorkshire resources into Rother Valley and Rotherham, two very winnable seats.
They shouldn't forget Stocksbridge & Penistone though where they topped the poll in 2014.
A constituency poll there would be interesting.
And just what is UKIPs policy for the Rother Valley? Privatise the NHS? The NHS that is the 'biggest waste of money in the UK' and at 'at the heart of this, the Reichstag bunker of socialism'? Is this what Labour voters are going for? Or do the voters of Rother Valley approve of weaponising child abuse?
Just two seats are of any consequence for the Tories in Scotland:
aren't there a couple of chances in Edinburgh? Is it possible some centre left unionists could chuck in their lot with the tories to avoid an SNP MP???
Stale prices now - but this is where they were under 20/1 last week:
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale 2/5 - this is the one they have Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk 11/8 - this is the LD gain possibility, looking like a bet at this price IMO Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine 3/1 - 3rd favs here, but a live chance if they can maintain 30% Dumfries and Galloway 7/1 - 3rd favs here to gain from Labour, again maintaining about 31% gives them half a chance Perth and North Perthshire 12/1 - this is SNP already, very unlikely though a No area Edinburgh South West 14/1 - Darling's seat, but they only start on 24%, split Unionist vote may well hand this to SNP Edinburgh West 16/1 - Ditto, currently LD, quite hard to see anything other than SNP now
The 20/1 in Renfrewshire East on the Conservatives might be worth thinking about. With Jim Murphy potentially standing down (he seems to be dithering on this), the 30% that the Conservatives start on may prove a useful base, particularly if the SNP make disproportionate inroads into the Yes vote in this very middle class constituency's Labour base.
NB I'm not predicting a Conservative win, merely noting that 20/1 is worth thinking about.
20/1 in Fife North East (Ming's seat) doesn't look terrible either.
The Conservatives start from just too low a base there, I think, at 22%. The SNP look unstoppable there to me.
Lol, the SNP base is 14%! But I know what you mean.
In the SNP's case, it's not where you're from, it's where you're going.
Even Ed Balls seemed to acknowledge that was a good crack.
Not all that funny in reality since 'Bill' (Bill Thomas) was a director of the Co-op bank, and we know how all that ended. (See Guido for the 'crack' joke) - Bill ran EDS who supplied the now world famous child support agency software.
Gawd preserve us from Bill and Balls running the UK.
The funniest quote in the Indy article:
"Balls, despite the quad-core processing power of one of the best brains on either front bench...."
Why the Tories being ahead in 7 out of 48 polls in 2015 is a disaster for Ed.
Genuine question. Do you actually think Labour are doing well, right now?
Better than any other (nationwide) party, but not what I'd call well Doesn't say much for the Cons that they can't poll better than Ed in the middle of a concerted media assault and electoral meltdown in one of Labour's (former?) strongholds, does it?
Shadsy has SNP to take all 59 seats at 8/1 and SNP to get 45 seats at 45/1. I'd think the 8/1 is terrible value, but the 45/1 looks pretty good - though still pretty unlikely.
Just two seats are of any consequence for the Tories in Scotland:
aren't there a couple of chances in Edinburgh? Is it possible some centre left unionists could chuck in their lot with the tories to avoid an SNP MP???
Stale prices now - but this is where they were under 20/1 last week:
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale 2/5 - this is the one they have Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk 11/8 - this is the LD gain possibility, looking like a bet at this price IMO Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine 3/1 - 3rd favs here, but a live chance if they can maintain 30% Dumfries and Galloway 7/1 - 3rd favs here to gain from Labour, again maintaining about 31% gives them half a chance Perth and North Perthshire 12/1 - this is SNP already, very unlikely though a No area Edinburgh South West 14/1 - Darling's seat, but they only start on 24%, split Unionist vote may well hand this to SNP Edinburgh West 16/1 - Ditto, currently LD, quite hard to see anything other than SNP now
The 20/1 in Renfrewshire East on the Conservatives might be worth thinking about. With Jim Murphy potentially standing down (he seems to be dithering on this), the 30% that the Conservatives start on may prove a useful base, particularly if the SNP make disproportionate inroads into the Yes vote in this very middle class constituency's Labour base.
NB I'm not predicting a Conservative win, merely noting that 20/1 is worth thinking about.
Dumfries & Galloway looks on paper a reasonable punt at 7/1
I'm on this at 8/1 thanks to DavidL persuading me that it was worth a go in October when I put up one of my many pieces on Scotland.
Easterross assured us that this was a certain Conservative gain in 2010 - along with most of the other seats mentioned above . Never under estimate the blind optimism of Scottish Conservatives .
Rotherham Council condemned as "not fit for purpose" by the Casey Report.
Tell us something we don't know.
My colleagues are definitely UKIP for the GE I think, though they have moved out of the Rotherham constituency.
UKIP should focus all their Yorkshire resources into Rother Valley and Rotherham, two very winnable seats.
Is this the reason why there's no comprehensive investigation going on for the same thing going on outside of Rotherham?
"It's happening everywhere" to quote one victim. Yet the media and the political class insist on looking the other way. Just a local issue and all that.
Has Theresa May just widened the terms historical child abuse enquiry to cover Rotherham and other similar cases?
May says what we have seen in Rotherham, Manchester and elsewhere is “only the tip of the iceberg”. Abuse took place on a scale that is hard to comprehend, she says
@georgeeaton Posted at tweets: Striking how high Tory morale and unity is at the moment. Feuds suspended until after the election. #PMQs"
Surely the main thing PMQs can affect - clearly they don't run that far into the country; they start in the chamber, get mangled by the political press, and might throw one or two tit-bits for the chattering classes.
This high Tory morale reminds me somehow of Labour's Sheffield hubris in 1992.
It's the unity that's more relevant, surely? Unity means they know it's tight but think they can win. Labour's unity is crumbling; draw your own conclusions.
Labour's supposed disunity is because Ed is looking likely to win and the Blairites are absolutely terrified.
We have a new spoof poster. I'm going to have to up my game!
Just two seats are of any consequence for the Tories in Scotland:
aren't there a couple of chances in Edinburgh? Is it possible some centre left unionists could chuck in their lot with the tories to avoid an SNP MP???
Stale prices now - but this is where they were under 20/1 last week:
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale 2/5 - this is the one they have Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk 11/8 - this is the LD gain possibility, looking like a bet at this price IMO Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine 3/1 - 3rd favs here, but a live chance if they can maintain 30% Dumfries and Galloway 7/1 - 3rd favs here to gain from Labour, again maintaining about 31% gives them half a chance Perth and North Perthshire 12/1 - this is SNP already, very unlikely though a No area Edinburgh South West 14/1 - Darling's seat, but they only start on 24%, split Unionist vote may well hand this to SNP Edinburgh West 16/1 - Ditto, currently LD, quite hard to see anything other than SNP now
The 20/1 in Renfrewshire East on the Conservatives might be worth thinking about. With Jim Murphy potentially standing down (he seems to be dithering on this), the 30% that the Conservatives start on may prove a useful base, particularly if the SNP make disproportionate inroads into the Yes vote in this very middle class constituency's Labour base.
NB I'm not predicting a Conservative win, merely noting that 20/1 is worth thinking about.
Dumfries & Galloway looks on paper a reasonable punt at 7/1
I'm on this at 8/1 thanks to DavidL persuading me that it was worth a go in October when I put up one of my many pieces on Scotland.
Easterross assured us that this was a certain Conservative gain in 2010 - along with most of the other seats mentioned above . Never under estimate the blind optimism of Scottish Conservatives .
DavidL was not suggesting that it was a certain Conservative gain, merely that 8/1 represented decent odds, bearing in mind that the SNP were likely to eat disproportionately into Labour support in the seat, benefiting the Conservatives' chances. The logic seemed and seems good to me.
Shadsy has SNP to take all 59 seats at 8/1 and SNP to get 45 seats at 45/1. I'd think the 8/1 is terrible value, but the 45/1 looks pretty good - though still pretty unlikely.
"the political reaction today is dividing along two lines. One is that the party should be moving left to deal with the SNP surge. The other is also that the party should be moving – not across the political landscape, though, but along the pavements and getting on with knocking on people’s doors. It’s all very well wibbling from one side of the Labour spectrum to the other, but it doesn’t make much of a difference if you’re not communicating what you think to voters."
Just who are these people who are going to be pounding the pavements, given the SNP's immense numerical advantage over Scottish Labour?
Has Theresa May just widened the terms historical child abuse enquiry to cover Rotherham and other similar cases?
May says what we have seen in Rotherham, Manchester and elsewhere is “only the tip of the iceberg”. Abuse took place on a scale that is hard to comprehend, she says
Rotherham Council condemned as "not fit for purpose" by the Casey Report.
Tell us something we don't know.
My colleagues are definitely UKIP for the GE I think, though they have moved out of the Rotherham constituency.
UKIP should focus all their Yorkshire resources into Rother Valley and Rotherham, two very winnable seats.
They shouldn't forget Stocksbridge & Penistone though where they topped the poll in 2014.
A constituency poll there would be interesting.
And just what is UKIPs policy for the Rother Valley? Privatise the NHS? The NHS that is the 'biggest waste of money in the UK' and at 'at the heart of this, the Reichstag bunker of socialism'? Is this what Labour voters are going for? Or do the voters of Rother Valley approve of weaponising child abuse?
Rotherham Council condemned as "not fit for purpose" by the Casey Report.
Tell us something we don't know.
My colleagues are definitely UKIP for the GE I think, though they have moved out of the Rotherham constituency.
UKIP should focus all their Yorkshire resources into Rother Valley and Rotherham, two very winnable seats.
Is this the reason why there's no comprehensive investigation going on for the same thing going on outside of Rotherham?
"It's happening everywhere" to quote one victim. Yet the media and the political class insist on looking the other way. Just a local issue and all that.
Has the local MP in the neighbouring seat of Doncaster North commented yet, or is he too busy wibbling about hedge funds?
WH's 7/1 on SLAB 0-5 seats remains the best SNP bet out there though. If the ashcroft polls are replicated on may 7th, it'll be touch and go whether SLAB get over/under 5 seats.
Is it any wonder the Tories are hated and derided in Scotland, look at the buffoons they have in place. This clown would struggle to tie his shoelaces and is a nasty sneering bit of work into the bargain.
Mundell: I take foodbank volunteer's word with pinch of salt...he's a Yes voter
Published on 3 February 2015 Scotland's only Conservative MP has said the word of a foodbank volunteer in his constituency should be taken "with a pinch of salt" because he supports Scottish independence.
“The council’s culture is unhealthy: bullying, sexism, suppression and misplaced ‘political correctness’ have cemented its failures. The council is currently incapable of tackling its weaknesses, without a sustained intervention."
And that's in the Guardian, forced to admit that "political correctness" is an issue.
WH's 7/1 on SLAB 0-5 seats remains the best SNP bet out there though. If the ashcroft polls are replicated on may 7th, it'll be touch and go whether SLAB get over/under 5 seats.
Isn't a Buy on SPIN, even at the increased price of 37, a better way of riding the SNP wave?
“The council’s culture is unhealthy: bullying, sexism, suppression and misplaced ‘political correctness’ have cemented its failures. The council is currently incapable of tackling its weaknesses, without a sustained intervention."
And that's in the Guardian, forced to admit that "political correctness" is an issue.
An interesting point from the polls is that the Tories are now most against SNP of all parties and the feeling is mutual. There is no common ground left between these two factions. The other point of note is that SNP supporters are the most pessimistic of all parties about their future. Scotland is a depressing place to live at the moment which is shame as there are so many good things about it. Labour created a socialist state here which they thought would guarantee them jobs for life. It is bitter irony to see it being turned against them.
Politics in Scotland as Mike has pointed out has changed dramatically. The Scottish Government has grabbed control not just from Westminster but from the councils and the quangos. As a result probably 50% of all adults income is partially of fully controlled by it. You cannot fight the machine.
My mother's next door neighbour in Oxford is a nice middle aged GP who just moved down from Glasgow area. She is the kind of person that Scotland needs but just felt there was no future for people like her and her family. The people who stay believe in the system the rest are quietly leaving.
... Labour created a socialist state here which they thought would guarantee them jobs for life. It is bitter irony to see it being turned against them.
Politics in Scotland as Mike has pointed out has changed dramatically. The Scottish Government has grabbed control not just from Westminster but from the councils and the quangos. As a result probably 50% of all adults income is partially of fully controlled by it. You cannot fight the machine.
My mother's next door neighbour in Oxford is a nice middle aged GP who just moved down from Glasgow area. She is the kind of person that Scotland needs but just felt there was no future for people like her and her family. The people who stay believe in the system the rest are quietly leaving.
People are miserable in Scotland because it is a socialist state? And they are voting for a more extreme form of socialism in the SNP? Certainly there is no logic in the world. It does sound like the new North Korea being built by the SNP will mean they will need a new Hadrian's Wall. Will Gretna Green be the new Panmunjon?
WH's 7/1 on SLAB 0-5 seats remains the best SNP bet out there though. If the ashcroft polls are replicated on may 7th, it'll be touch and go whether SLAB get over/under 5 seats.
Isn't a Buy on SPIN, even at the increased price of 37, a better way of riding the SNP wave?
Its times like these I wish I had a statistics degree (and that i'd had more than an hours sleep last night!)
The way I see it is SNP/SLAB seat totals under FPTP are likely to swing to one or the other extreme during the campaign depending on whether or not Lab can win back 5-10% of 2010 LAB>SNP switchers. It's either going to be an SLAB wipeout, or a pretty respectable performance. IMO SLAB are more likely to get more than 25 seats OR less than 10 than they are to get 10-25 seats. Trading the SNP on the spreads near the middle of this SLAB seat range is a bet on whether the ashcroft polls will be replicated in may - right now, that's not a bet I want to make.
I'm already very heavy on SLAB 10 or fewer seats at very long odds, but I've also just laid SNP most Scottish seats at 1.12-1.15
I'm staying away from the spreads unless I'm prepared to let them ride until settlement (my only current bet is a buy on UKIP @ 8.5 seats - which I expect to lose on, but the upside potential under FPTP is to big to ignore).
Is it any wonder the Tories are hated and derided in Scotland, look at the buffoons they have in place. This clown would struggle to tie his shoelaces and is a nasty sneering bit of work into the bargain.
Mundell: I take foodbank volunteer's word with pinch of salt...he's a Yes voter
Published on 3 February 2015 Scotland's only Conservative MP has said the word of a foodbank volunteer in his constituency should be taken "with a pinch of salt" because he supports Scottish independence.
An interesting point from the polls is that the Tories are now most against SNP of all parties and the feeling is mutual. There is no common ground left between these two factions. The other point of note is that SNP supporters are the most pessimistic of all parties about their future. Scotland is a depressing place to live at the moment which is shame as there are so many good things about it. Labour created a socialist state here which they thought would guarantee them jobs for life.
The SNP have an existential problem. They exist to break up the union, but if they succeed, the English money that funds socialism goes away.
An interesting point from the polls is that the Tories are now most against SNP of all parties and the feeling is mutual. There is no common ground left between these two factions. The other point of note is that SNP supporters are the most pessimistic of all parties about their future. Scotland is a depressing place to live at the moment which is shame as there are so many good things about it. Labour created a socialist state here which they thought would guarantee them jobs for life. It is bitter irony to see it being turned against them.
Politics in Scotland as Mike has pointed out has changed dramatically. The Scottish Government has grabbed control not just from Westminster but from the councils and the quangos. As a result probably 50% of all adults income is partially of fully controlled by it. You cannot fight the machine.
My mother's next door neighbour in Oxford is a nice middle aged GP who just moved down from Glasgow area. She is the kind of person that Scotland needs but just felt there was no future for people like her and her family. The people who stay believe in the system the rest are quietly leaving.
In my opinion a large proportion of Scottish people see themselves as victims - victims of the English and of Conservative governments.
So they vote SNP thinking this will give them immunity from their neighbour and from the world.
One day they will come to realise that have to take responsibility for their own circumstances. Independence would have brought that day closer.
What England needs is a referendum on independence from Scotland now we are not going to get EVEL.
Comments
Or do the voters of Rother Valley approve of weaponising child abuse?
Tories near 55% chance of most seats.
the NHSCrossover!"Balls, despite the quad-core processing power of one of the best brains on either front bench...."
Doesn't say much for the Cons that they can't poll better than Ed in the middle of a concerted media assault and electoral meltdown in one of Labour's (former?) strongholds, does it?
http://wingsoverscotland.com/panic-on-the-streets-of-london/#more-66354
"It's happening everywhere" to quote one victim. Yet the media and the political class insist on looking the other way. Just a local issue and all that.
May says what we have seen in Rotherham, Manchester and elsewhere is “only the tip of the iceberg”. Abuse took place on a scale that is hard to comprehend, she says
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2015/feb/04/labour-faces-twin-blows-from-ashcroft-poll-and-business-criticism-politics-live-blog
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/02/ashcroft-poll-proof-labour-needs-to-get-moving-across-the-pavement/
"the political reaction today is dividing along two lines. One is that the party should be moving left to deal with the SNP surge. The other is also that the party should be moving – not across the political landscape, though, but along the pavements and getting on with knocking on people’s doors. It’s all very well wibbling from one side of the Labour spectrum to the other, but it doesn’t make much of a difference if you’re not communicating what you think to voters."
Just who are these people who are going to be pounding the pavements, given the SNP's immense numerical advantage over Scottish Labour?
All I heard was 'Tory' 'Hedge Fund' 'Tax Avoiders' 'Monaco' ........all against the backdrop of a plummy Etonian accent with a guffawing chorus.
That should go down well with the plebs whose votes he needs
"We have a new spoof poster. I'm going to have to up my game!"
Up is the only way in your case?
;-)
WH's 7/1 on SLAB 0-5 seats remains the best SNP bet out there though. If the ashcroft polls are replicated on may 7th, it'll be touch and go whether SLAB get over/under 5 seats.
Mundell: I take foodbank volunteer's word with pinch of salt...he's a Yes voter
Published on 3 February 2015
Scotland's only Conservative MP has said the word of a foodbank volunteer in his constituency should be taken "with a pinch of salt" because he supports Scottish independence.
Mr's Thatcher was quite keen on a cover up or two?
It has never affected her reputation among the Tories I know?
Politics in Scotland as Mike has pointed out has changed dramatically. The Scottish Government has grabbed control not just from Westminster but from the councils and the quangos. As a result probably 50% of all adults income is partially of fully controlled by it. You cannot fight the machine.
My mother's next door neighbour in Oxford is a nice middle aged GP who just moved down from Glasgow area. She is the kind of person that Scotland needs but just felt there was no future for people like her and her family. The people who stay believe in the system the rest are quietly leaving.
It does sound like the new North Korea being built by the SNP will mean they will need a new Hadrian's Wall. Will Gretna Green be the new Panmunjon?
new thread
The way I see it is SNP/SLAB seat totals under FPTP are likely to swing to one or the other extreme during the campaign depending on whether or not Lab can win back 5-10% of 2010 LAB>SNP switchers. It's either going to be an SLAB wipeout, or a pretty respectable performance. IMO SLAB are more likely to get more than 25 seats OR less than 10 than they are to get 10-25 seats. Trading the SNP on the spreads near the middle of this SLAB seat range is a bet on whether the ashcroft polls will be replicated in may - right now, that's not a bet I want to make.
I'm already very heavy on SLAB 10 or fewer seats at very long odds, but I've also just laid SNP most Scottish seats at 1.12-1.15
I'm staying away from the spreads unless I'm prepared to let them ride until settlement (my only current bet is a buy on UKIP @ 8.5 seats - which I expect to lose on, but the upside potential under FPTP is to big to ignore).
http://marksimonfrankland.blogspot.co.uk/search?updated-min=2015-01-01T00:00:00-08:00&updated-max=2016-01-01T00:00:00-08:00&max-results=7
''How much have the governments of Belgium, Spain and the Grand Duchy of Luxemburg had off me over the years? Must be getting on for £4000. And how much has HM Treasury in London had?
Zip.
Pretty smart''
Not smart if you want to raise taxes for welfare.
All sorts of people have an agenda - you should know.
So they vote SNP thinking this will give them immunity from their neighbour and from the world.
One day they will come to realise that have to take responsibility for their own circumstances. Independence would have brought that day closer.
What England needs is a referendum on independence from Scotland now we are not going to get EVEL.