The TNS numbers are, on the face of it, encouraging for Labour, but, according to Anthony Wells, TNS is by far the most Labour-friendly of the polling companies, putting them, on average, 3% further ahead of the Conservatives than the average.
On current projections the SNP supporters will be getting exactly what the majority of them want, the Tories out, someone who will argue for the best deal for Scotland and a party that could drag Labour away from cuts.
The only way this can change is if Labour's polling worsens or Labour rule out a coalition with the SNP.
Labour were badly unprepared for coalition talks in 2010, will they be any better in May? Is anyone in the 2 big parties considering how a grand coalition would work?
So let me get this straight - scotland is about get a load of mps with policies most labpur supporters wish that party had, and ed is still looking on course for a majority of seats in england and wales, and still this is somehow bad for 'lefties'? Pb tory world is a funny place
What makes you think Ms Sturgeon wants to support the Labour Party in the creation of this socialist paradise ? She wants to screw over the Labour Party, and the Tory Party as well if given the opportunity, so she can get an OUT vote for Scotland. A cuddly socialist UK government is the very last thing the SNP want as it will set back the cause for independence for a decade... sorry about that.
When push comes to shove though the SNP will do a deal with Labour. And Labour will need the SNP more than the other way round. And that deal could destroy Labour in England. Which is good for the SNP.
Yes indeed. Although I would be surprised if it was even Confidence and Supply, much more fun to be had supporting a minority government on a bill-by-bill basis, demoralises their troops by continuously demonstrating their reliance on SNP votes, pisses everyone off south of the board, plays well north of the border.
There will only be another referendum if Westminster gives the green light. It's hard to envisage that happening for a while. As the SNP stated, it was a once in a lifetime opportunity.
If you listen to our SNP posters here, current nationalist thinking seems to have moved on as the likelihood increases that they will have a minority Westminster government by the balls.
So let me get this straight - scotland is about get a load of mps with policies most labpur supporters wish that party had, and ed is still looking on course for a majority of seats in england and wales, and still this is somehow bad for 'lefties'? Pb tory world is a funny place
What makes you think Ms Sturgeon wants to support the Labour Party in the creation of this socialist paradise ? She wants to screw over the Labour Party, and the Tory Party as well if given the opportunity, so she can get an OUT vote for Scotland. A cuddly socialist UK government is the very last thing the SNP want as it will set back the cause for independence for a decade... sorry about that.
When push comes to shove though the SNP will do a deal with Labour. And Labour will need the SNP more than the other way round. And that deal could destroy Labour in England. Which is good for the SNP.
If Labour are in a position to form a government despite being wiped out in Scotland Labour will have won most seats in England and with EV4EL will not need SNP support. In that situation, the only real leverage the SNP might have is to vote with the Tories in a vote of no confidence. They did that once before and it did not turn out well for them.
On current projections the SNP supporters will be getting exactly what the majority of them want, the Tories out, someone who will argue for the best deal for Scotland and a party that could drag Labour away from cuts.
The only way this can change is if Labour's polling worsens or Labour rule out a coalition with the SNP.
So do Labour in effect call the nationalists bluff by ruling out a coalition with the SNP, in effect trying to say to lefty Scots 'it really is us or the Tories'?
"When push comes to shove though the SNP will do a deal with Labour. And that deal will probably destroy Labour in England …"
Lessons from Quebec, no 8: The Worst Electoral Disaster Ever.
The Canadian Tories went from an absolute majority to just 2 seats in 1993.
What destroyed the Conservatives was exactly that. They were distrusted in Quebec because of failures in constitutional reform (Meech Lake and Charlotteville)
Before the rise of the Bloc Quebecois, federal elections (as opposed to state) returned mainly Conservatives in Quebec.
So in the rest of Canada, the Conservatives were seen as buying off Quebec for Conservative seats. Whether this is correct or not, the perception was enough to destroy the Tories.
I agree with you that -- a Labour SNP deal is fantastically dangerous for Labour. It would really need a consummate politician to get it to work. And they've got Bungling Ed.
"Seven million postal votes were issued in 2010 and the number is looking set to be even high this time round.
Not only are postal voters increasingly numerous, they also vote increasingly early as those administering elections have grown more and more keen to send out postal votes as promptly as possible given the administrative burdens involved in processing returned ballots (especially since the welcome introduction of the need to check security information on all returned postal ballots rather than on just a sample).
This time round, soundings with electoral returning officers show that most are going to start sending out postal ballots in the week commencing 13 April, weeks before polling day itself.
Rather like the frog that does not notice the slowly increasing temperature of the pot it is being cooked in, the long-term, sustained and major increase in postal voting levels has crept up and up and up without any one seismic change – and hence the numbers of people voting well before polling day has still not really been grasped by many who still set the timetables for their activity as if people only vote on polling day.
Grassroots electoral campaigners have long since learnt to run two ‘polling day’ operations but much of the rest of how elections, their coverage and the lobbying of candidates is organised is based on an increasingly antiquated notion of when people vote, with debates, events and coverage galore therefore happening after millions have voted."
Mr. Observer, not sure Labour will go for English votes for English laws. Their preference appears to be to **** up England so they have little political fiefdoms (which worked so very well for them in Scotland).
So let me get this straight - scotland is about get a load of mps with policies most labpur supporters wish that party had, and ed is still looking on course for a majority of seats in england and wales, and still this is somehow bad for 'lefties'? Pb tory world is a funny place
I wonder what Scots will be expecting from their nationalist MPs and how Salmond and co. will play it. Given the way they have been riding an anti-Tory wave it seems they would have to back Miliband who consequently wouldn't need to offer them much at all. If I were PM Ed I'd unveil a general social democratic agenda and dare the Nats to side with the Tories.
Yeah, because kicking up a fuss in Westminster to get a better deal for Scotland will really harm them.
But the Nats can't on the one hand pledge to keep the Tories out of power and kick up a fuss at the same time. If Salmond doesn't want to be Miliband's bag man he needs to endorse the possibility of having the Tories in power.
"Seven million postal votes were issued in 2010 and the number is looking set to be even high this time round.
Not only are postal voters increasingly numerous, they also vote increasingly early as those administering elections have grown more and more keen to send out postal votes as promptly as possible given the administrative burdens involved in processing returned ballots (especially since the welcome introduction of the need to check security information on all returned postal ballots rather than on just a sample).
This time round, soundings with electoral returning officers show that most are going to start sending out postal ballots in the week commencing 13 April, weeks before polling day itself.
Rather like the frog that does not notice the slowly increasing temperature of the pot it is being cooked in, the long-term, sustained and major increase in postal voting levels has crept up and up and up without any one seismic change – and hence the numbers of people voting well before polling day has still not really been grasped by many who still set the timetables for their activity as if people only vote on polling day.
Grassroots electoral campaigners have long since learnt to run two ‘polling day’ operations but much of the rest of how elections, their coverage and the lobbying of candidates is organised is based on an increasingly antiquated notion of when people vote, with debates, events and coverage galore therefore happening after millions have voted."
The Scottish Labour leader had been scheduled to take part in the charity's 'Big Sell' campaign where a number of well-know Scottish figures help sell the Big Issue on streets across Scotland.'
So let me get this straight - scotland is about get a load of mps with policies most labpur supporters wish that party had, and ed is still looking on course for a majority of seats in england and wales, and still this is somehow bad for 'lefties'? Pb tory world is a funny place
I wonder what Scots will be expecting from their nationalist MPs and how Salmond and co. will play it. Given the way they have been riding an anti-Tory wave it seems they would have to back Miliband who consequently wouldn't need to offer them much at all. If I were PM Ed I'd unveil a general social democratic agenda and dare the Nats to side with the Tories.
Yeah, because kicking up a fuss in Westminster to get a better deal for Scotland will really harm them.
But the Nats can't on the one hand pledge to keep the Tories out of power and kick up a fuss at the same time. If Salmond doesn't want to be Miliband's bag man he needs to endorse the possibility of having the Tories in power.
He wants the Tories in power, is the best way to drive a wedge between rUK and Scotland, but he cant have it look like its his fault that the Tories are in power. There will be a deal of some sort with Labour because as the saying goes, "you have to get behind someone before you can stab them in the back"
2. LA's Scottish constituency polls are in line with the national polling which is prob why so little SPIN change this morning: it's already been factored in. Not so true in E&W where LA's polling doesn't quite tally. 3. LA's E&W constituency polling is stale. It's up to 6 months (sometimes more) out of date, pre Green surge, UKIP fade, Lab continued slide and Cons modest firm. We need new polling urgently if we're to rely on it.
2. The pattern in Lord Ashcroft's constituency polling of Liberal Democrat - Conservative seats, of the Liberal Democrats outperforming UNS in those contests, has been confirmed by the impressive by-election hold of Eastleigh. If you have any evidence to contradict this, then share it.
In the 18 by elections held since Oldham East and Saddleworth the Liberal Democrat share of the vote has fallen by an average of 12.37%.
At Eastleigh they managed to do even worse than that, their share falling 14.44%. They were saved at that mid-term by election, as you know (I think) by the then UKIP surge where UKIP polled 27.8%. If you think UKIP are likely to do that well, and that you think you can translate that across to the General Election, be my guest.
Were the impressive Easteigh LibDem fall to be repeated nationally at the General Election they would poll 8.5%. Funnily enough that's exactly where they're currently polling.
Mr. Observer, not sure Labour will go for English votes for English laws. Their preference appears to be to **** up England so they have little political fiefdoms (which worked so very well for them in Scotland).
It's worth remembering that Labour never really wanted devolution. They went for it out of fear of the nationalists. Perhaps if New Labour had instead governed on a genuinely social democratic platform then the independence movement would have abated without devolution. Unfortunately it's too late for that now.
So let me get this straight - scotland is about get a load of mps with policies most labpur supporters wish that party had, and ed is still looking on course for a majority of seats in england and wales, and still this is somehow bad for 'lefties'? Pb tory world is a funny place
What makes you think Ms Sturgeon wants to support the Labour Party in the creation of this socialist paradise ? She wants to screw over the Labour Party, and the Tory Party as well if given the opportunity, so she can get an OUT vote for Scotland. A cuddly socialist UK government is the very last thing the SNP want as it will set back the cause for independence for a decade... sorry about that.
When push comes to shove though the SNP will do a deal with Labour. And Labour will need the SNP more than the other way round. And that deal could destroy Labour in England. Which is good for the SNP.
Yes indeed. Although I would be surprised if it was even Confidence and Supply, much more fun to be had supporting a minority government on a bill-by-bill basis, demoralises their troops by continuously demonstrating their reliance on SNP votes, pisses everyone off south of the board, plays well north of the border.
There will only be another referendum if Westminster gives the green light. It's hard to envisage that happening for a while. As the SNP stated, it was a once in a lifetime opportunity.
If you listen to our SNP posters here, current nationalist thinking seems to have moved on as the likelihood increases that they will have a minority Westminster government by the balls.
I can't see either the Tories or Labour agreeing to a referendum that they think they might lose. The SNP clearly stated it was a once in a lifetime opportunity and Westminster will hold them to that.
Mr. Observer, not sure Labour will go for English votes for English laws. Their preference appears to be to **** up England so they have little political fiefdoms (which worked so very well for them in Scotland).
If Labour has most English seats and next to none in Scotland EV4EL becomes as attractive to them as it is now for the Tories.
24 hours on from this polling, I'm still in a state of shock and amazement.
This polling is tote amazeballs.
It's wonderful. The prospect of Labour being ground into the dust in Scotland is just fantastic. Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath going SNP would be the icing on the cake.
I thought Labour were safe in Glenrothes, being in the East and having a 40% majority - but who knows.
I think this projection for 2015:
Prediction for 2015- Roy (Labour)- 59% SNP- 27% Conservative- 6% Liberal Democrats- 4% UKIP- 3% Others- 1%
On UK Polling report may just, may just be a "Touch" optimistic for Labour though.
Mark Ferguson @Markfergusonuk · 2m2 minutes ago Interesting that Miliband didn’t mention Lord Ashcroft in his list of Tory donors. Can’t imagine why he’d omit that name today… #pmqs
So let me get this straight - scotland is about get a load of mps with policies most labpur supporters wish that party had, and ed is still looking on course for a majority of seats in england and wales, and still this is somehow bad for 'lefties'? Pb tory world is a funny place
What makes you think Ms Sturgeon wants to support the Labour Party in the creation of this socialist paradise ? She wants to screw over the Labour Party, and the Tory Party as well if given the opportunity, so she can get an OUT vote for Scotland. A cuddly socialist UK government is the very last thing the SNP want as it will set back the cause for independence for a decade... sorry about that.
When push comes to shove though the SNP will do a deal with Labour. And Labour will need the SNP more than the other way round. And that deal could destroy Labour in England. Which is good for the SNP.
Yes indeed. Although I would be surprised if it was even Confidence and Supply, much more fun to be had supporting a minority government on a bill-by-bill basis, demoralises their troops by continuously demonstrating their reliance on SNP votes, pisses everyone off south of the board, plays well north of the border.
There will only be another referendum if Westminster gives the green light. It's hard to envisage that happening for a while. As the SNP stated, it was a once in a lifetime opportunity.
If you listen to our SNP posters here, current nationalist thinking seems to have moved on as the likelihood increases that they will have a minority Westminster government by the balls.
I can't see either the Tories or Labour agreeing to a referendum that they think they might lose. The SNP clearly stated it was a once in a lifetime opportunity and Westminster will hold them to that.
I am not so sure, Labour care about Scotland because it has 40 odd Labour seats in it, those days have passed. The SNP will run the Scottish Westminster seats now until there aren't any. After Miliband has had to push through his tenth bill of the session on a confidence motion, having dropped most of the important clauses from the bill to make it "acceptable" he is going to be itching for the situation to chance, and its not going to all the time Scotland are in the union.
On current projections the SNP supporters will be getting exactly what the majority of them want, the Tories out, someone who will argue for the best deal for Scotland and a party that could drag Labour away from cuts.
The only way this can change is if Labour's polling worsens or Labour rule out a coalition with the SNP.
So do Labour in effect call the nationalists bluff by ruling out a coalition with the SNP, in effect trying to say to lefty Scots 'it really is us or the Tories'?
Seems a pretty high risk strategy to me...
If Labour are on the point of losing Motherwell and Wishaw, there's nothing to be lost by throwing caution to the winds.
Mark Ferguson @Markfergusonuk · 2m2 minutes ago Interesting that Miliband didn’t mention Lord Ashcroft in his list of Tory donors. Can’t imagine why he’d omit that name today… #pmqs
So let me get this straight - scotland is about get a load of mps with policies most labpur supporters wish that party had, and ed is still looking on course for a majority of seats in england and wales, and still this is somehow bad for 'lefties'? Pb tory world is a funny place
What makes you think Ms Sturgeon wants to support the Labour Party in the creation of this socialist paradise ? She wants to screw over the Labour Party, and the Tory Party as well if given the opportunity, so she can get an OUT vote for Scotland. A cuddly socialist UK government is the very last thing the SNP want as it will set back the cause for independence for a decade... sorry about that.
When push comes to shove though the SNP will do a deal with Labour. And Labour will need the SNP more than the other way round. And that deal could destroy Labour in England. Which is good for the SNP.
Yes indeed. Although I would be surprised if it was even Confidence and Supply, much more fun to be had supporting a minority government on a bill-by-bill basis, demoralises their troops by continuously demonstrating their reliance on SNP votes, pisses everyone off south of the board, plays well north of the border.
There will only be another referendum if Westminster gives the green light. It's hard to envisage that happening for a while. As the SNP stated, it was a once in a lifetime opportunity.
If you listen to our SNP posters here, current nationalist thinking seems to have moved on as the likelihood increases that they will have a minority Westminster government by the balls.
I can't see either the Tories or Labour agreeing to a referendum that they think they might lose. The SNP clearly stated it was a once in a lifetime opportunity and Westminster will hold them to that.
The Scots don't haver very long lifetimes, all that Buckfast and deep fried pizza
This Scottish stuff is fascinating. Remind me, the No campaign won the referendum, right?
There must be a unionist vote to be harvested, somewhere??
On the other hand the SNP are benefiting from, and demanding, power without responsibility ''the prerogative of the harlot through the ages''.
At some point they will have to make choices without blaming someone else for the results. Maybe then the unionist vote will move back to a party representing sound (centre right) government.
Mark Ferguson @Markfergusonuk · 2m2 minutes ago Interesting that Miliband didn’t mention Lord Ashcroft in his list of Tory donors. Can’t imagine why he’d omit that name today… #pmqs
I see the Prof has already made the point I was going to make about the closeness of many of the Ashcroft forecasts.
"Indeed, today’s polls suggest that, if anything, the picture may be even worse for Labour in its heartlands than the national polls suggest. On average Labour secured 58% of the vote in the 14 seats in 2010, while according to Ashcroft the party now stands at 37% in these seats, a drop of 21 points. That compares with an average drop of 15 points in the most recent Scotland wide polls."
That's nonsense isn't it? You would expect a bigger drop where they have more votes to lose than on average wouldn't you?
2. LA's Scottish constituency polls are in line with the national polling which is prob why so little SPIN change this morning: it's already been factored in. Not so true in E&W where LA's polling doesn't quite tally. 3. LA's E&W constituency polling is stale. It's up to 6 months (sometimes more) out of date, pre Green surge, UKIP fade, Lab continued slide and Cons modest firm. We need new polling urgently if we're to rely on it.
2. The pattern in Lord Ashcroft's constituency polling of Liberal Democrat - Conservative seats, of the Liberal Democrats outperforming UNS in those contests, has been confirmed by the impressive by-election hold of Eastleigh. If you have any evidence to contradict this, then share it.
In the 18 by elections held since Oldham East and Saddleworth the Liberal Democrat share of the vote has fallen by an average of 12.37%.
At Eastleigh they managed to do even worse than that, their share falling 14.44%. They were saved at that mid-term by election, as you know (I think) by the then UKIP surge where UKIP polled 27.8%. If you think UKIP are likely to do that well, and that you think you can translate that across to the General Election, be my guest.
Were the impressive Easteigh LibDem fall to be repeated nationally at the General Election they would poll 8.5%. Funnily enough that's exactly where they're currently polling.
Facts, dear boy.
OTOH, the Lib Dems now have an incumbent in Eastleigh, as opposed to defending a seat vacated by a criminal. It is genuinely a tough seat to call.
EIC looking crapper than normal at PMQs clear win for Cameron IMO despite not answering the pretty basic question
I think BJO that if even if we did get an SNP/Labour coalition, which is quite likely, it might not last long.
Ed's Englishmen, particularly those in marginal seats, would be in an open and permanent rebellion, as ed got slapped around by a phalanx of Scottish nats.
I could easily see them voting with the tories to deny Scotland more of the pie
I see the Prof has already made the point I was going to make about the closeness of many of the Ashcroft forecasts.
"Indeed, today’s polls suggest that, if anything, the picture may be even worse for Labour in its heartlands than the national polls suggest. On average Labour secured 58% of the vote in the 14 seats in 2010, while according to Ashcroft the party now stands at 37% in these seats, a drop of 21 points. That compares with an average drop of 15 points in the most recent Scotland wide polls."
That's nonsense isn't it? You would expect a bigger drop where they have more votes to lose than on average wouldn't you?
UNS says not, and UNS has generally performed better than "proportional swing". But UNS can break down with large swings - quite obviously Labour couldn't lose 20% in Berwickshire and poll -10%, for example.
Frankly, that EdM is LESS popular than DCameron in Scotland speaks volumes. And that's not even allowing for Gordon who remained more popular despite getting the Darwin Award for Best PM.
EIC looking crapper than normal at PMQs clear win for Cameron IMO despite not answering the pretty basic question
I think BJO that if even if we did get an SNP/Labour coalition, which is quite likely, it might not last long.
Ed's Englishmen, particularly those in marginal seats, would be in an open and permanent rebellion, as ed got slapped around by a phalanx of Scottish nats
May I just caution PBers about Lord A's constituency polling.
None of the polling has named candidates which will be of certain benefit to incumbents, especially LibDems but also to a high profile candidate such as Salmond in the Gordon constituency.
And most of all, incumbancy will benefit current Labour MPs in Scotland which is perhaps why the betting markets have not been moved by Lord A's constituency polling.
I see the Prof has already made the point I was going to make about the closeness of many of the Ashcroft forecasts.
"Indeed, today’s polls suggest that, if anything, the picture may be even worse for Labour in its heartlands than the national polls suggest. On average Labour secured 58% of the vote in the 14 seats in 2010, while according to Ashcroft the party now stands at 37% in these seats, a drop of 21 points. That compares with an average drop of 15 points in the most recent Scotland wide polls."
That's nonsense isn't it? You would expect a bigger drop where they have more votes to lose than on average wouldn't you?
UNS says not, and UNS has generally performed better than "proportional swing". But UNS can break down with large swings - quite obviously Labour couldn't lose 20% in Berwickshire and poll -10%, for example.
Well yes that's what I meant.. going from 58 to 37 isn't as bad as going from 30 to 18
Very sound CV, much better than most Labourites have to offer. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dan_Jarvis BS in International Politics and Strategic Studies. MA in Conflict, Security & Development from King's College London. Sandhurst Parachute Regiment Kosovo Sierra Leone 2 Tours in Afghanistan, first in recon, then as company commander for special forces support.
Frankly, that EdM is LESS popular than DCameron in Scotland speaks volumes. And that's not even allowing for Gordon who remained more popular despite getting the Darwin Award for Best PM.
EIC looking crapper than normal at PMQs clear win for Cameron IMO despite not answering the pretty basic question
I think BJO that if even if we did get an SNP/Labour coalition, which is quite likely, it might not last long.
Ed's Englishmen, particularly those in marginal seats, would be in an open and permanent rebellion, as ed got slapped around by a phalanx of Scottish nats
F1: from the livefeed - it's suggested the Ferrari engine has gained circa 80bhp. Felipe Nasr reckons it's similar to the 2014 Mercedes (which he drove now and then). However, the Silver Arrows are liking hiding their light under a bushel, and are believed to have added around 50bhp themselves.
Excepting Honda, which is new, the Renault's looking a little unreliable, but it's very early days.
Even I think there's more than one Unionist vote to be harvested. Probably.
I'm probably speaking out of turn, but there might be an opportunity for the tories. Even if they got say four seats north of the border (out of the posher parts of Scotland of course), that might be crucial given the electoral balance of power.
Frankly, that EdM is LESS popular than DCameron in Scotland speaks volumes. And that's not even allowing for Gordon who remained more popular despite getting the Darwin Award for Best PM.
EIC looking crapper than normal at PMQs clear win for Cameron IMO despite not answering the pretty basic question
I think BJO that if even if we did get an SNP/Labour coalition, which is quite likely, it might not last long.
Ed's Englishmen, particularly those in marginal seats, would be in an open and permanent rebellion, as ed got slapped around by a phalanx of Scottish nats
Is Ed less popular than Cameron in Glasgow?
According to the slightly dubious 3-part question from Lord Ashcroft, yes.
(a) I am satisfied with the job David Cameron is doing overall as Prime Minister
(b) I am dissatisfied with the job that David Cameron is doing overall as Prime Minister - BUT I'd still prefer to have him as Prime Minister than have Ed Miliband as Prime Minister
(c) I am dissatisfied with the job that David Cameron is doing overall as Prime Minister – AND I'd prefer to have Ed Miliband as Prime Minister instead
Very sound CV, much better than most Labourites have to offer. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dan_Jarvis BS in International Politics and Strategic Studies. MA in Conflict, Security & Development from King's College London. Sandhurst Parachute Regiment Kosovo Sierra Leone 2 Tours in Afghanistan, first in recon, then as company commander for special forces support.
My tip for the top a while back; which probably dooms him to obscurity.
If this was a political TV drama - I'd call this set of scenes a plot foul - it's just so convenient for the show writers to dump all over the nerdy guy and prompt calls for a coup before it was all too late... just three months out...
Clegg is not happy with the way Cameron and the Tories are using everything for election purposes, including PMQ's. Cameron never answers many of the questions put to him and instead reads out something, which often does not relate to what was asked.
Comments
Seems a pretty high risk strategy to me...
Lessons from Quebec, no 8: The Worst Electoral Disaster Ever.
The Canadian Tories went from an absolute majority to just 2 seats in 1993.
What destroyed the Conservatives was exactly that. They were distrusted in Quebec because of failures in constitutional reform (Meech Lake and Charlotteville)
Before the rise of the Bloc Quebecois, federal elections (as opposed to state) returned mainly Conservatives in Quebec.
So in the rest of Canada, the Conservatives were seen as buying off Quebec for Conservative seats. Whether this is correct or not, the perception was enough to destroy the Tories.
I agree with you that -- a Labour SNP deal is fantastically dangerous for Labour. It would really need a consummate politician to get it to work. And they've got Bungling Ed.
EdM asks four questions on arcane tax issue. Cam gets chance to batter Labour on a different point every time.
'Jim Murphy drops out of Big Issue campaign
The Scottish Labour leader had been scheduled to take part in the charity's 'Big Sell' campaign where a number of well-know Scottish figures help sell the Big Issue on streets across Scotland.'
http://glasgow.stv.tv/206253/
At Eastleigh they managed to do even worse than that, their share falling 14.44%. They were saved at that mid-term by election, as you know (I think) by the then UKIP surge where UKIP polled 27.8%. If you think UKIP are likely to do that well, and that you think you can translate that across to the General Election, be my guest.
Were the impressive Easteigh LibDem fall to be repeated nationally at the General Election they would poll 8.5%. Funnily enough that's exactly where they're currently polling.
Facts, dear boy.
There must be a unionist vote to be harvested, somewhere??
Cameron thumped him using Bill Somebody.
Wouldn't that imply Labour cant get any better?
http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en-gb/betting/m/223080387/How+Many+Seats+Will+Labour+Win+In+Scotland+at+GE+2015?
IMO, that bet should be about the same odds as the SNP taking Glasgow NE.
Interesting that Miliband didn’t mention Lord Ashcroft in his list of Tory donors. Can’t imagine why he’d omit that name today… #pmqs
It was a decent bet. One of those horrible good value losers.
PME's?
(prime ministers evasions)
At some point they will have to make choices without blaming someone else for the results. Maybe then the unionist vote will move back to a party representing sound (centre right) government.
Even here he's getting beaten. The rich are paying more under the tories than they ever did under labour.
That's nonsense isn't it? You would expect a bigger drop where they have more votes to lose than on average wouldn't you?
Rotherham Council 'not fit for purpose', abuse report finds http://www.itv.com/news/update/2015-02-04/rotherham-council-not-fit-for-purpose-report-finds/ …
I think BJO that if even if we did get an SNP/Labour coalition, which is quite likely, it might not last long.
Ed's Englishmen, particularly those in marginal seats, would be in an open and permanent rebellion, as ed got slapped around by a phalanx of Scottish nats.
I could easily see them voting with the tories to deny Scotland more of the pie
Sorry, I thought it would only make sense to something that was so good it couldn't get better
Great joke Dave!
@gabyhinsliff: ..in other words, dsnt really think they're going to win. People are not afraid of offending Ed.
The #Casey report into sexual abuse in #Rotherham says the town's council is "not fit for purpose"
http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-31130750
The Casey inquiry has surfaced officially and the BBC has "political correctness" in its headline.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dan_Jarvis
BS in International Politics and Strategic Studies.
MA in Conflict, Security & Development from King's College London.
Sandhurst
Parachute Regiment
Kosovo
Sierra Leone
2 Tours in Afghanistan, first in recon, then as company commander for special forces support.
What happened to labour's 'clean campaign' crap?
Excepting Honda, which is new, the Renault's looking a little unreliable, but it's very early days.
The independence votes are almost all SNP plus a handful of Green voters.
The FPTP system thus favours SNP.
I'm probably speaking out of turn, but there might be an opportunity for the tories. Even if they got say four seats north of the border (out of the posher parts of Scotland of course), that might be crucial given the electoral balance of power.
Dave and the Tories are very confident.
Ed & Labour aren't.
(a) I am satisfied with the job David Cameron is doing overall as Prime Minister
(b) I am dissatisfied with the job that David Cameron is doing overall as Prime Minister - BUT I'd still prefer to have him as Prime Minister than have Ed Miliband as Prime Minister
(c) I am dissatisfied with the job that David Cameron is doing overall as Prime Minister – AND I'd prefer to have Ed Miliband as Prime Minister instead
Results on page 8 of the pdf.
LOL