Latest Scottish Subsample Averages (last 6, last 10 with YG)
Ashcroft:... SNP 48, LAB 25 Ipsos:.........SNP 45, LAB 21 Comres......SNP 44, LAB 23 YG:............ SNP 43, LAB 27 ICM............SNP 39, LAB 31 Populus:.... SNP 34, LAB 30
Does this mega polling tell us something about the findings of some of the UK pollsters?
Does it mean that their Scottish findings are wrong, and therefore their headline UK numbers are wrong?
I certainly think there's pause for thought. We are, after all, talking about the same (unproven) pollster who managed to misfire by a whopping 17% at Heywood and Middleton.
For historic tried and tested reasons I'm apportioning something like 60:40 emphasis on national polling. Or, to put it another way, if a constituency poll is wildly out of kilter with national polling without very strong reason I'm keeping it at arm's length. For now, at any rate.
Fortunately LA's Scottish constituency polls are pretty clean. Don't forget that Antifrank worked from the national polling downwards. We'd be wise to do likewise in E&W.
Do we have any Scottish Labour posters here btw - one thing that strikes m about the nats here is their... optimism.
Scottish Labour in my opinion is and was the most negative outfit in the whole of British politics. The SNP probably the most positive.
I expect Scottish Labour to start asking whether the SNP will do a deal with the Conservatives. I'd have thought the smartest reply from Sturgeon would be to rule out even abstaining on a Conservative confidence motion.
Sturgeon came out with a pretty emphatic "no deal with the Tories" back in October while Scottish Labour were still claiming that the SNP surge was a blip and waiting for things to "return to normal". Since mid-November, pretty much every single interview with a Labourite has them repeat the mantra "vote SNP get Cameron" and it hasn;t worked. As for Scottish Labour members. They don't really exist.
Yes, indications are that its now under 10,000 real members. Labour have not shifted resources into saving SLAB at the level required. What are their 40+ MPs doing down in Westminster? They should be back home re-building.
Meanwhile at Westminster at least 2 SLAB MPs are this morning sitting on the UK welfare committee (2 of the 11 are Scots) spending time questioning the formidable Esther Mcvey. At one point asking "what support have you given to those (0.0000057%) suffering from sanction X"?
The NHS in Scotland is thought by the public to be substantially superior to the NHS in England and light years ahead of the NHS in Labour run Wales. See the British Social Attitudes survey published last Thursday showing record satisafaction (75%) in Scotland compared to 65% in England and 51% in Wales.To quote directly
"in 2014, satisfaction with the NHS in Scotland was 75 per cent, the highest ever recorded. This was significantly higher than satisfaction levels reported in England (65 per cent) and Wales (51 per cent). The gap in satisfaction between Scotland and the other two countries is now one of the largest since 1983."
In terms of voting what the people think is rather more important that what the Daily Record says! I don' think Labour can make much headway there!.
Like one or two others, I missed the party, but not for a bad reason. I've never understood Scotland and have always avoided it (bettingwise) for that reason. I'm the same with flat racing. Haven't got a clue, so I just don't get involved.
Glad you have benefited though. You've been very generous and fair with your assessments, and many here have good reason to be thankful.
Oh there you are @Peter_the_Punter - like you I have no idea about the nuances of Scotland (although not very nuanced from this poll) but...
...I did want to thank you for your tip for that hurdle race at Ludlow the other day. In particular as it was an amateurs' race.
That said, both main Parties are utterly discredited.
Both are on the same downward trajectory. As seismically and terminally catastrophic as these polls are for Labour, for the Tories they clearly show they are dead and buried in Scotland as an electoral force.
This election it seems is going to be decided in the East Midlands. The rest of us need not bother!
And seeing as that is the case, the CBI helpfuly predicted the strongest jobs growth out of all the regions will be in the East Midlands in 2015. Hmmm.
And finally, FPTP. A dead voting system walking.
The East Midlands economy has improve hugely in the last 2 years there really is huge improvement, I expect the Conservatives will go well in the marginals, of which there are several extremely close. Certainly well enough to make those that were close in 2010 close again, whether they will get over the line individually in those seats is too close to call in all of them including Nick's.
Not sure why Ed is so unpopular in Scotland, or maybe it would be the same whoever was leader, unless they were Scottish.
That may be true, but then again, who in England likes him?
Someone like Ed Miliband is just as alien to the average working man in Romford as he is in Glasgow.
Labour might make the long term mistake of thinking, 'it's just Ed'.
There are lots of 'Ed's' in the upper echelons of the Labour movement, who behave in an 'Ed" type way, have an 'Ed' type upbringing and think 'Ed' type things.
These kind of people aren't like the working class voters they are losing.
Since mid-November, pretty much every single interview with a Labourite has them repeat the mantra "vote SNP get Cameron" and it hasn;t worked.
I am actually surprised just how despised Ed is north of the border. He seems relatively inoffensive and he pops out the occasional social justice soundbite that SLabbers cling onto to make themselves feel warm & fuzzy.
I suspect that his rather plummy voice has a lot to do with it.
Amazingly, even after this polling has been factored in, the SNP look like a buy on Sporting Index at 35.5. Even allowing for some returning Labour supporters, this looks generous to me. I had been expecting the SNP to be opening at something like 37-39 or maybe even higher today.
It's a little strange that this set of polls is having such an impact, since it is very consistent with the whole string of Scottish polls since November. Still, it's nice to have confirmation of what we already knew.
One striking thing about the results is the relative uniformity of the Labour->SNP swing in Labour-held seats: the range is only 21% to 27%, average 25.4%. Bad news for Labour, especially since even 21% is enough for an SLAB bloodbath. Another striking thing is that the two-prompt question hasn't made much difference, as I predicted yesterday. Scots really don't like their (mainly Labour) Westminster MPs, it seems.
Curiously, the SPIN market has reopened with only a 1.5 seat increase: now 33.5 to 35.5.
Meanwhile, in religion of peace news: "In a statement released on Tuesday night, Sheikh Ahmed al-Tayeb, the Grand Imam of al-Azhar University in Egypt, called for the "killing, crucifixion of IS terrorists"." http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-31124900
Edited extra bit: the last thing the world needs is more barbarity. The savagery of ISIS should be rejected, not imitated.
Re. the LibDems, wasn't it obvious to a lot of us here and elsewhere that the moment they climbed into bed with the Conservatives theirs would be a 5 year feast followed by 100 year famine? Surely they realised it at the time too? Did they just want to trip the light fantastic, all the while knowing they would be pitched into darkness?
Whatever happens in the overall majority battle the slaughter of SLAB and LibDems will make the night of May 7th fascinating viewing.
The two newly endangered species: Scottish Labour and English LibDem.
No, there's always been quite alot of Lib Dems here - Mark Senior, Corporeal, OGH himself. Scottish Conservatives (Is TGOHF Scottish ?), Easteross, SNP Nats - TUD, MalcyG. But you'd expect one or two Scottish Labour, even if they've now switched to SNP.
No point spinning - terrible set of polls for Labour - I need to revise my worst case scenario that Labour would at least win 20 out of the 59 seats in Scotland.
Amazingly, even after this polling has been factored in, the SNP look like a buy on Sporting Index at 35.5. Even allowing for some returning Labour supporters, this looks generous to me. I had been expecting the SNP to be opening at something like 37-39 or maybe even higher today.
I don't normally check this (I was seeing if Betfair had any comically mispriced SNP markets) but there's a first PMQ market. Miliband to ask about corporation/business tax at 10/1 looks tempting (given the Smythson[sp] story). Terrorism at 8/1, after the latest ISIS barbarity, is also possible.
The two newly endangered species: Scottish Labour and English LibDem.
So you are happy to accept Lord A's findings for Scottish LAB seats but NOT Lord A's polling of CON LD targets in England. At least be consistent.
1. How many LibDem seats will there be? You keep evading the question 2. LA's Scottish constituency polls are in line with the national polling which is prob why so little SPIN change this morning: it's already been factored in. Not so true in E&W where LA's polling doesn't quite tally. 3. LA's E&W constituency polling is stale. It's up to 6 months (sometimes more) out of date, pre Green surge, UKIP fade, Lab continued slide and Cons modest firm. We need new polling urgently if we're to rely on it. 4. Scotland isn't England, Mike. There's no equivalent to the SNP south of the border, no equivalent out-of-Indyref political movement, no bandwagon. You can't apply a 'consistent' model from England to Scotland: that repeats the EdM error. Two different ball games. Two different countries.
Sky News Newsdesk @SkyNewsBreak 2m2 minutes ago Sky Sources: NCA and IPCC receive allegations of sexual abuse of underage girls by a police officer and two councillors in #Rotherham
Bound to rattle cages, but if the allegations are true, the fan is hitting very solid residues.
I don't normally check this (I was seeing if Betfair had any comically mispriced SNP markets) but there's a first PMQ market. Miliband to ask about corporation/business tax at 10/1 looks tempting (given the Smythson[sp] story). Terrorism at 8/1, after the latest ISIS barbarity, is also possible.
The two newly endangered species: Scottish Labour and English LibDem.
So you are happy to accept Lord A's findings for Scottish LAB seats but NOT Lord A's polling of CON LD targets in England. At least be consistent.
It's the disconnect between the national and the local polling that people struggle to understand Mike. For me the vote/seat problem is being squared very nicely by the Scottish polling. Lib Dems losing something like 6 out of 7 voters in uncompetitive seats, leaves them all for Eastleigh, Yeovil and places that matter.
I'm surprised more Lib Dem MPs haven't gone to Clegg's door begging to be sacked from Government btw - I suspect Tessa Munt's decision to resign her Government role means that although I think she's doomed in Wells... she probably has half a chance of hanging on.
That 6-4 on Lib Dems gaining any seat looks good to me btw.
Mark Ferguson @Markfergusonuk 2h2 hours ago Got to write something about the Ashcroft Scotland poll this morning, but it’s hard not to just write “fucking hell” over and over
7 weeks ago someone wrote on here "....Fighting hard on both fronts of Scotland and England & Wales will spread Labour’s resources too thin and both fronts seem to be heading for failure. What should matter more to Labour is the fight to the death in Scotland. But Labour’s Leadership seem to think a new SLAB Leader and fingers crossed all will come good. They are not going to do the right thing and re-direct 80% of cash and workers to the 40 Scottish seats they need to fight hard over and only chase a few seats in England & Wales, such as 10 Conservative and 10 LD seats south of Scotland."
NickexMP response was words similar to "that will not happen". Therefore I am very glad that Labour ignored my advice and SLAB's near death is now starting to look inevitable for GE15. I just wonder what the 40+ SLAB MPs will now do knowing what these polls say? Can Douglas Alexander really focus on the UK campaign when his own seat is under threat? Watch for shifts in the tectonic plates.
Since mid-November, pretty much every single interview with a Labourite has them repeat the mantra "vote SNP get Cameron" and it hasn;t worked.
I am actually surprised just how despised Ed is north of the border.
I'm not. I lived in Scotland for 4 years. Nearly all Jocks of whatever political persuasion seem to me to have an instinctive disconnect from those who are somehow not 'genuine'. Ed Miliband is the living epitome of wonky, geeky, politico, never-been-to-a-pub, awkward, mendacious, answer-avoiding, mincing, content-free empty suitishness. Even Dave, for all his Hooray Henryishness, is a more real person. The Scots simply don't like Dave. Ed provokes an altogether more visceral reaction. I think it's disgust. The man's a drip.
Do we have any Scottish Labour posters here btw - one thing that strikes m about the nats here is their... optimism.
Scottish Labour in my opinion is and was the most negative outfit in the whole of British politics. The SNP probably the most positive.
I expect Scottish Labour to start asking whether the SNP will do a deal with the Conservatives. I'd have thought the smartest reply from Sturgeon would be to rule out even abstaining on a Conservative confidence motion.
I think there are a number of us SNP ex-SLAB supporters posting. The depth of SLAB's decline is brutal my wife, most of my family and many work colleagues have all switched to SNP most from SLAB. I think "optimism" in a nutshell captures the mood of us all - deluded we may well be - but we are seeking something more than what the mainstream parties have to offer.
SLAB's biggest failing was to fail to spot that around 50% of it's core support base had deserted it, not in 2014, but way back in 2011 with the rot setting in as early as 2007. There's nothing SLAB can do to turn things around, indeed the SNP will now use the results of these constituency polls to focus their ground resources on the few SLAB/LibDem seats that remain out of their grasp.
Came out a while back. They piggy-backed a poll commissioned by the BBC for Woman's Hour. Don't think they normally go down the telephone poll route these days?
Next BJESUS will have 20 less Lab 20 more SNP then and still EICIPM.
Pulpstar was right Lab most seats less likely than EICIPM yet Betfair hasn't reflected this.
Bizarre EICIPM now 2.26 was 2.5 a couple of days ago!!!
I laid off some Ed last night at 2.28 (Next PM market)
Was hoping for a drift today but it could happen as the full depth of Labour's crisis hits the press and casual punters start thinking it vastly decreases Ed's chances of becoming PM - the Lib Dems getting hammered in Scotland too means it probably doesn't...
The big question is whether England should have to go with unstable governance of education and health should there be a majority in England but not one for the whole UK. Or worse - governance by the SNP over our education and health.
Current Conservative majority in England is 55.
If we assume a dozen gains from the Liberal Democrats, then the key seat for retaining a majority is likely to be Cannock Chase. This constituency is typical of the Middle England Towns and Their Hinterlands long identified as the key battleground of English politics.
I could easily envisage Labour taking this seat with the same 33% of the vote that they secured in 2010, with votes from the Liberal Democrats offsetting those lost to UKIP, as enough of the Tory vote peels off to UKIP to make it a three-way marginal, as the Ashcroft Poll of October 2014 suggested. And yet, while this is a plausible scenario, there must be lots of voters still to be convinced in such a seat, who might be persuaded to support the government.
I think Cannock Chase might be one of the most interesting contests of the election. I will add it to my "Four to Forgo Forgetting" [of Kingswood, Vale of Glamorgan, Pendle and Harlow] to make five.
There is an interesting psychological aspect to this polling.
Danny Alexander will lose his seat. But, I am sure he is mentally prepared for that. The possibility will have already occurred to him a few years ago that he might well lose, as Inverness has always been a very marginal seat.
But, did Dougie Alexander ever really think, did he ever really think, he might lose Paisley ?
There is a very different effect on morale when you are predicted to lose a fortress as opposed to losing a marginal.
Have to say kudos to Antifrank for spotting a gap in the market and punishing it.. it is what good betting is all about - doing the research, spotting a trend and trusting your judgement... well done, must be so satisfying!
Ed B was on telly when the GDP numbers came out saying how worrying it was that growth was slowing... naturally...
David Smith@dsmitheconomics·2 mins2 minutes ago All three purchasing managers surveys showed improvement in January, with the service sector PMI up from 55.8 to 57.2. Strong start to 2015.
...This constituency is typical of the Middle England Towns and Their Hinterlands long identified as the key battleground of English politics....
Well, since 2007 at any rate. I would love a pollster to produce results only for those voters who live in the METTHs, roughly those areas with a population in a range of 10,000 - 100,000. Populus do produce polls for someone that asks the sample whether they live in one of four different settlement sizes - but the largest settlement category is "Urban - 10,000 or more inhabitants", which would lump together small towns, such as Cannock (population: 29,018), with cities such as Stoke (population: 249,008).
Came out a while back. They piggy-backed a poll commissioned by the BBC for Woman's Hour. Don't think they normally go down the telephone poll route these days?
Since mid-November, pretty much every single interview with a Labourite has them repeat the mantra "vote SNP get Cameron" and it hasn;t worked.
I am actually surprised just how despised Ed is north of the border.
I'm not. I lived in Scotland for 4 years. Nearly all Jocks of whatever political persuasion seem to me to have an instinctive disconnect from those who are somehow not 'genuine'. Ed Miliband is the living epitome of wonky, geeky, politico, never-been-to-a-pub, awkward, mendacious, answer-avoiding, mincing, content-free empty suitishness. Even Dave, for all his Hooray Henryishness, is a more real person. The Scots simply don't like Dave. Ed provokes an altogether more visceral reaction. I think it's disgust. The man's a drip.
I think you're projecting your own feelings a little there. Wonky, geeky, politico, never-been-to-a-pub, awkward, mendacious, answer-avoiding, mincing & content-free empty suitishness could all be applied in varying degrees to the last 2 Labour pms. The last 'genuine' Tory pm was reamed in Scotland in 1997.
@MrHarryCole: Eh? RT @georgeeaton: Jim Murphy on Ashcroft polls: "In the end the only people who will benefit from these polls are Cameron and the Tories"
Ed B was on telly when the GDP numbers came out saying how worrying it was that growth was slowing... naturally...
David Smith@dsmitheconomics·2 mins2 minutes ago All three purchasing managers surveys showed improvement in January, with the service sector PMI up from 55.8 to 57.2. Strong start to 2015.
As they should be! We're a big energy importer, and the cost of our oil and gas just fell 40%. All other things being equal, the UK economy should be about 1% bigger in 2015, simply from a reduction in the "net imports" line of the national accounts.
Ed B was on telly when the GDP numbers came out saying how worrying it was that growth was slowing... naturally...
David Smith@dsmitheconomics·2 mins2 minutes ago All three purchasing managers surveys showed improvement in January, with the service sector PMI up from 55.8 to 57.2. Strong start to 2015.
As they should be! We're a big energy importer, and the cost of our oil and gas just fell 40%. All other things being equal, the UK economy should be about 1% bigger in 2015, simply from a reduction in the "net imports" line of the national accounts.
Like one or two others, I missed the party, but not for a bad reason. I've never understood Scotland and have always avoided it (bettingwise) for that reason. I'm the same with flat racing. Haven't got a clue, so I just don't get involved.
Glad you have benefited though. You've been very generous and fair with your assessments, and many here have good reason to be thankful.
Oh there you are @Peter_the_Punter - like you I have no idea about the nuances of Scotland (although not very nuanced from this poll) but...
...I did want to thank you for your tip for that hurdle race at Ludlow the other day. In particular as it was an amateurs' race.
Many thanks and much appreciated.
Very kind, Topping.
Won't happen too often, although I am better on hurdlers than Scottish constituency betting. This is not saying much however.
There is an interesting psychological aspect to this polling.
Danny Alexander will lose his seat. But, I am sure he is mentally prepared for that. The possibility will have already occurred to him a few years ago that he might well lose, as Inverness has always been a very marginal seat.
But, did Dougie Alexander ever really think, did he ever really think, he might lose Paisley ?
There is a very different effect on morale when you are predicted to lose a fortress as opposed to losing a marginal.
The big challenge for Labour now is where they spend their money for the election campaign. Their original plan would no doubt just have been to go on the offensive, now the question is how much money to spend defending seats in Scotland. The next question is which seats to defend. It is astonishing that a seat like Glasgow S with a 12k majority is one that on these figures they should consider writing off. Of course there is also a question of party management as existing MPs in Scotland will have more clout to demand extra funds than candidates in England.
2. LA's Scottish constituency polls are in line with the national polling which is prob why so little SPIN change this morning: it's already been factored in. Not so true in E&W where LA's polling doesn't quite tally. 3. LA's E&W constituency polling is stale. It's up to 6 months (sometimes more) out of date, pre Green surge, UKIP fade, Lab continued slide and Cons modest firm. We need new polling urgently if we're to rely on it.
Couple of points.
1. You are exaggerating recent changes in the National polling - but in any case that is irrelevant. The value of the constituency polls is to compare them with the national polls at the same time, so that you can see what local variations there are from UNS. Absent political earthquakes - either local or national - it is reasonable to expect that if party A was expected to outperform UNS at time 1, it will continue to do so at time 2.
2. The pattern in Lord Ashcroft's constituency polling of Liberal Democrat - Conservative seats, of the Liberal Democrats outperforming UNS in those contests, has been confirmed by the impressive by-election hold of Eastleigh. If you have any evidence to contradict this, then share it, but all you have presented is bluster and rudeness.
Has anyone got a link to the next Foreign Secretary market?
If Dougie Alexander loses his seat, then Ed's going to need a new Foreign Secretary (assuming he becomes PM)
I wonder who he might choose.
Ed Miliband himself might be the bet, if the odds are long enough. It's a post which is potentially a useful place for sticking party leaders who are no longer desired in their present role but who you don't want sulking on the backbenches.
Has anyone got a link to the next Foreign Secretary market?
If Dougie Alexander loses his seat, then Ed's going to need a new Foreign Secretary (assuming he becomes PM)
I wonder who he might choose.
Ed Miliband himself might be the bet, if the odds are long enough. It's a post which is potentially a useful place for sticking party leaders who are no longer desired in their present role but who you don't want sulking on the backbenches.
Tories also need a narrative for Scotland which they don't yet have. Their leader up here is very capable but has been quiet recently. The big issues of Europe, English votes etc are all for the South but not up here. Cameron needs to talk to the Scots and tell us what his plan is. If he does not then the Tories will stay at home. I am not sure they will vote SNP as really they are just another hard core left wing Glasgow party now.
It doesn't matter what the Tories do, until they ditch the Conservative and Unionist brand they will be stuck eternally on 15% which they have been in almost all elections for 25 years. Only pressing Murdo Fraser's nuclear button will ever change this.
Davidson is widely respected and does a good job but arguably so was Goldie and she had a higher Approval rating. But no matter who the leader, the Tory vote share doesn't change.
I think Hamiltonace is right though. There needs to be more to Toryism in Scotland than Unionism. It will be hard to run on low taxes if these are devolved (though a very viable manifesto for 2011 Holyrood). Scots Tories need to have a campaign on UK rather than devolved issues, so Foreign policy inc Europe, and maintaining and improving the Scottish financial sector, etc.
Mind you campaigning on devolved isssues may work too, to a degree, just as campaining on National issues does well at locals and Euros.
If the Tories campaigned on their current Economic platform, with a more socially conscious Social platform and on a fully Federal UK under the banner of the old Progressive Party, they would be able to challenge the SNP.
Until then, they won't move at all.
Exactly , as long as they are seen as London only party and no social conscience at all they have no hope. They need to clear out a forest of deadwood and stop being sock puppets for London. Little sign it will happen , they recently voted to retain mediocrity.
Comments
For historic tried and tested reasons I'm apportioning something like 60:40 emphasis on national polling. Or, to put it another way, if a constituency poll is wildly out of kilter with national polling without very strong reason I'm keeping it at arm's length. For now, at any rate.
Fortunately LA's Scottish constituency polls are pretty clean. Don't forget that Antifrank worked from the national polling downwards. We'd be wise to do likewise in E&W.
Meanwhile at Westminster at least 2 SLAB MPs are this morning sitting on the UK welfare committee (2 of the 11 are Scots) spending time questioning the formidable Esther Mcvey. At one point asking "what support have you given to those (0.0000057%) suffering from sanction X"?
The NHS in Scotland is thought by the public to be substantially superior to the NHS in England and light years ahead of the NHS in Labour run Wales. See the British Social Attitudes survey published last Thursday showing record satisafaction (75%) in Scotland compared to 65% in England and 51% in Wales.To quote directly
"in 2014, satisfaction with the NHS in Scotland was 75 per cent, the highest ever recorded. This was significantly higher than satisfaction levels reported in England (65 per cent) and Wales (51 per cent). The gap in satisfaction between Scotland and the other two countries is now one of the largest since 1983."
In terms of voting what the people think is rather more important that what the Daily Record says! I don' think Labour can make much headway there!.
...I did want to thank you for your tip for that hurdle race at Ludlow the other day. In particular as it was an amateurs' race.
Many thanks and much appreciated.
Someone like Ed Miliband is just as alien to the average working man in Romford as he is in Glasgow.
Labour might make the long term mistake of thinking, 'it's just Ed'.
There are lots of 'Ed's' in the upper echelons of the Labour movement, who behave in an 'Ed" type way, have an 'Ed' type upbringing and think 'Ed' type things.
These kind of people aren't like the working class voters they are losing.
If they do, they will be at the second test but with the 2014 car.
C-Valerie: Where are we pushing our luck today, on to the tables or is it Slots you fancy?
*: Making bucketloads of money backing the SNP. Ta.
It's a little strange that this set of polls is having such an impact, since it is very consistent with the whole string of Scottish polls since November. Still, it's nice to have confirmation of what we already knew.
One striking thing about the results is the relative uniformity of the Labour->SNP swing in Labour-held seats: the range is only 21% to 27%, average 25.4%. Bad news for Labour, especially since even 21% is enough for an SLAB bloodbath. Another striking thing is that the two-prompt question hasn't made much difference, as I predicted yesterday. Scots really don't like their (mainly Labour) Westminster MPs, it seems.
Curiously, the SPIN market has reopened with only a 1.5 seat increase: now 33.5 to 35.5.
"In a statement released on Tuesday night, Sheikh Ahmed al-Tayeb, the Grand Imam of al-Azhar University in Egypt, called for the "killing, crucifixion of IS terrorists"."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-31124900
Edited extra bit: the last thing the world needs is more barbarity. The savagery of ISIS should be rejected, not imitated.
Whatever happens in the overall majority battle the slaughter of SLAB and LibDems will make the night of May 7th fascinating viewing.
2. LA's Scottish constituency polls are in line with the national polling which is prob why so little SPIN change this morning: it's already been factored in. Not so true in E&W where LA's polling doesn't quite tally.
3. LA's E&W constituency polling is stale. It's up to 6 months (sometimes more) out of date, pre Green surge, UKIP fade, Lab continued slide and Cons modest firm. We need new polling urgently if we're to rely on it.
4. Scotland isn't England, Mike. There's no equivalent to the SNP south of the border, no equivalent out-of-Indyref political movement, no bandwagon. You can't apply a 'consistent' model from England to Scotland: that repeats the EdM error. Two different ball games. Two different countries.
Sky Sources: NCA and IPCC receive allegations of sexual abuse of underage girls by a police officer and two councillors in #Rotherham
Bound to rattle cages, but if the allegations are true, the fan is hitting very solid residues.
I'm surprised more Lib Dem MPs haven't gone to Clegg's door begging to be sacked from Government btw - I suspect Tessa Munt's decision to resign her Government role means that although I think she's doomed in Wells... she probably has half a chance of hanging on.
That 6-4 on Lib Dems gaining any seat looks good to me btw.
Got to write something about the Ashcroft Scotland poll this morning, but it’s hard not to just write “fucking hell” over and over
NickexMP response was words similar to "that will not happen". Therefore I am very glad that Labour ignored my advice and SLAB's near death is now starting to look inevitable for GE15. I just wonder what the 40+ SLAB MPs will now do knowing what these polls say? Can Douglas Alexander really focus on the UK campaign when his own seat is under threat? Watch for shifts in the tectonic plates.
Oh well we knew EIC.
Next BJESUS will have 20 less Lab 20 more SNP then and still EICIPM.
Pulpstar was right Lab most seats less likely than EICIPM yet Betfair hasn't reflected this.
Bizarre EICIPM now 2.26 was 2.5 a couple of days ago!!!
Voting intention shows LAB 33% (+2), CON 27% (-4), UKIP 18% (+2), LIB DEM 6% (-2), GREEN 8% (+1), OTHER 8% (+1)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-31096166
http://www.blogcdn.com/www.aoltv.com/media/2007/03/ayoademoss.jpg
SLAB's biggest failing was to fail to spot that around 50% of it's core support base had deserted it, not in 2014, but way back in 2011 with the rot setting in as early as 2007. There's nothing SLAB can do to turn things around, indeed the SNP will now use the results of these constituency polls to focus their ground resources on the few SLAB/LibDem seats that remain out of their grasp.
http://www.tns-bmrb.co.uk/uploads/files/TNS_BMRB_Tables_-_All_adults.pdf
Came out a while back. They piggy-backed a poll commissioned by the BBC for Woman's Hour. Don't think they normally go down the telephone poll route these days?
Was hoping for a drift today but it could happen as the full depth of Labour's crisis hits the press and casual punters start thinking it vastly decreases Ed's chances of becoming PM - the Lib Dems getting hammered in Scotland too means it probably doesn't...
http://www.tnsglobal.com/uk/voters-prefer-ukip-as-coalition-partner
If we assume a dozen gains from the Liberal Democrats, then the key seat for retaining a majority is likely to be Cannock Chase. This constituency is typical of the Middle England Towns and Their Hinterlands long identified as the key battleground of English politics.
I could easily envisage Labour taking this seat with the same 33% of the vote that they secured in 2010, with votes from the Liberal Democrats offsetting those lost to UKIP, as enough of the Tory vote peels off to UKIP to make it a three-way marginal, as the Ashcroft Poll of October 2014 suggested. And yet, while this is a plausible scenario, there must be lots of voters still to be convinced in such a seat, who might be persuaded to support the government.
I think Cannock Chase might be one of the most interesting contests of the election. I will add it to my "Four to Forgo Forgetting" [of Kingswood, Vale of Glamorgan, Pendle and Harlow] to make five.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election#2015
Danny Alexander will lose his seat. But, I am sure he is mentally prepared for that. The possibility will have already occurred to him a few years ago that he might well lose, as Inverness has always been a very marginal seat.
But, did Dougie Alexander ever really think, did he ever really think, he might lose Paisley ?
There is a very different effect on morale when you are predicted to lose a fortress as opposed to losing a marginal.
Eye Spy MP@eyespymp · 30 mins30 minutes ago
Chuka and Tristram Hunt having massive DMC in PCH yesterday. Why do it so publicly?
David Smith@dsmitheconomics·2 mins2 minutes ago
All three purchasing managers surveys showed improvement in January, with the service sector PMI up from 55.8 to 57.2. Strong start to 2015.
Breaking news - @margarethodge bows out of London Mayor 2016 race and backs ... (1/2..) (Exclusive interview in @eveningstandard tonite)
PCH = Portcullis House
*or David Miliband Chat? ;-)
(3/3) @margarethodge set to back @DavidLammy or @SadiqKhan 4 Mayor. But not @HackneyAbbott whose politics are too "distant" Link soon!
They've cut it to 4/5.
May 1st might be a good date to do it. Should kill off any remaining Labour hopes north of the border.
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/ed-milibands-first-question-in-this-weeks-pmqs
Won't happen too often, although I am better on hurdlers than Scottish constituency betting. This is not saying much however.
If Dougie Alexander loses his seat, then Ed's going to need a new Foreign Secretary (assuming he becomes PM)
I wonder who he might choose.
1. You are exaggerating recent changes in the National polling - but in any case that is irrelevant. The value of the constituency polls is to compare them with the national polls at the same time, so that you can see what local variations there are from UNS. Absent political earthquakes - either local or national - it is reasonable to expect that if party A was expected to outperform UNS at time 1, it will continue to do so at time 2.
2. The pattern in Lord Ashcroft's constituency polling of Liberal Democrat - Conservative seats, of the Liberal Democrats outperforming UNS in those contests, has been confirmed by the impressive by-election hold of Eastleigh. If you have any evidence to contradict this, then share it, but all you have presented is bluster and rudeness.
Dougie Alexander, as Head of Election Strategy, may well conclude that pouring money & resources into Paisley & Renfrewshire South is a good idea !
Ukip Candidate David Little Employed Bulgarian To Deliver Election Leaflets
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2015/02/03/ukip-candidate-david-little-employed-bulgarian-deliver-election-leaflets_n_6604642.html?1422982690&ncid=tweetlnkushpmg00000067
Luckily for the Tories.
Q1.
EdM: mumble mumble serious mumble join me in mumble
Cam: mumble agree serious the right hon mumble is absolutely right mumble
Q2.
EdM: mumble will further note mumble can all agree mumble
Cam: mumble together should mumble serious
Q3.
EdM: Will the Prime Minister agree he is a complete idiot?
Cam: Talking of idiots...
etc, etc
And with that I'll say good morning, and now of to do the weekly ironing.
If they can locate, and agree on, a competent individual, then it is not too late.
It is never too late to rid yourself of a liability (like Ed or IDS).