May I just caution PBers about Lord A's constituency polling.
None of the polling has named candidates which will be of certain benefit to incumbents, especially LibDems but also to a high profile candidate such as Salmond in the Gordon constituency.
Tories also need a narrative for Scotland which they don't yet have. Their leader up here is very capable but has been quiet recently. The big issues of Europe, English votes etc are all for the South but not up here. Cameron needs to talk to the Scots and tell us what his plan is. If he does not then the Tories will stay at home. I am not sure they will vote SNP as really they are just another hard core left wing Glasgow party now.
It doesn't matter what the Tories do, until they ditch the Conservative and Unionist brand they will be stuck eternally on 15% which they have been in almost all elections for 25 years. Only pressing Murdo Fraser's nuclear button will ever change this.
Davidson is widely respected and does a good job but arguably so was Goldie and she had a higher Approval rating. But no matter who the leader, the Tory vote share doesn't change.
I think Hamiltonace is right though. There needs to be more to Toryism in Scotland than Unionism. It will be hard to run on low taxes if these are devolved (though a very viable manifesto for 2011 Holyrood). Scots Tories need to have a campaign on UK rather than devolved issues, so Foreign policy inc Europe, and maintaining and improving the Scottish financial sector, etc.
Mind you campaigning on devolved isssues may work too, to a degree, just as campaining on National issues does well at locals and Euros.
If the Tories campaigned on their current Economic platform, with a more socially conscious Social platform and on a fully Federal UK under the banner of the old Progressive Party, they would be able to challenge the SNP.
Until then, they won't move at all.
Exactly , as long as they are seen as London only party and no social conscience at all they have no hope. They need to clear out a forest of deadwood and stop being sock puppets for London. Little sign it will happen , they recently voted to retain mediocrity.
If you opened your mind you would see that you are nothing but bile and bitterness.
Tories also need a narrative for Scotland which they don't yet have. Their leader up here is very capable but has been quiet recently. The big issues of Europe, English votes etc are all for the South but not up here. Cameron needs to talk to the Scots and tell us what his plan is. If he does not then the Tories will stay at home. I am not sure they will vote SNP as really they are just another hard core left wing Glasgow party now.
It doesn't matter what the Tories do, until they ditch the Conservative and Unionist brand they will be stuck eternally on 15% which they have been in almost all elections for 25 years. Only pressing Murdo Fraser's nuclear button will ever change this.
Davidson is widely respected and does a good job but arguably so was Goldie and she had a higher Approval rating. But no matter who the leader, the Tory vote share doesn't change.
As you see they live in a fantasy world , hence their stupid choice of new leader. They deserve to be where they are languishing with the no hopers. They are run by donkeys.
Says it all about the mentality of the left. Look at the colour of the skin not their records or abilities.
Lammy is a political lightweight with no real ability
Khan has some very disreputable friends and still needs to be held to account for his recent breaches of the law
But that doesn't matter as they aren't white.
Hodge - such a hypocrite. If you read the rest of the article, you see she wants a role in cracking down on tax avoidance. Well she knows how to do it - given the complicated set up she and her family use to avoid paying tax on their vast wealth.
No wonder Labour is in a mess when these sorts are in the top flight of the party...
Why on earth are UKIP paying people to deliver leaflets... it's something you do yourself, putting in the hard yards - or delegate to other party members/get your kids to do it.
Employing someone to do it goes against every grain of doorstep politics I know.
Dougie Alexander, as Head of Election Strategy, may well conclude that pouring money & resources into Paisley & Renfrewshire South is a good idea !
What use is a Head of Election Strategy if he is incapable of knowing and then defeating the threat in his own seat?
It is the SLAB MPs that are sleep walking into this mini disaster. Why are they so out of touch? We know from some past by elections before 2010 that much of SLABs canvassing data was poor to non existent. Labour HQ could see that and yet they just carried on ignoring the reality.
Tories also need a narrative for Scotland which they don't yet have. Their leader up here is very capable but has been quiet recently. The big issues of Europe, English votes etc are all for the South but not up here. Cameron needs to talk to the Scots and tell us what his plan is. If he does not then the Tories will stay at home. I am not sure they will vote SNP as really they are just another hard core left wing Glasgow party now.
It doesn't matter what the Tories do, until they ditch the Conservative and Unionist brand they will be stuck eternally on 15% which they have been in almost all elections for 25 years. Only pressing Murdo Fraser's nuclear button will ever change this.
Davidson is widely respected and does a good job but arguably so was Goldie and she had a higher Approval rating. But no matter who the leader, the Tory vote share doesn't change.
As you see they live in a fantasy world , hence their stupid choice of new leader. They deserve to be where they are languishing with the no hopers. They are run by donkeys.
With an existential question such as independence hanging over the country, isn't there a possibility that this will ultimately resolve itself into a 2-party system? The Tories [incredibly] seem to be reasonably well positioned to be the opposition.
Says it all about the mentality of the left. Look at the colour of the skin not their records or abilities.
Lammy is a political lightweight with no real ability
Khan has some very disreputable friends and still needs to be held to account for his recent breaches of the law
But that doesn't matter as they aren't white.
Hodge - such a hypocrite. If you read the rest of the article, you see she wants a role in cracking down on tax avoidance. Well she knows how to do it - given the complicated set up she and her family use to avoid paying tax on their vast wealth.
No wonder Labour is in a mess when these sorts are in the top flight of the party...
This is a 2 horse race between Jowell and Khan imo, I'm on both.
It just shows all the smears about unscrupulous Bulgarians were true after all. We should congratulate Mr Little. Actually he is just a bit of a rough Diamond 'avin a laff. Why has nobody got a sense of humour anymore... '
Lets face it, lines like, “That young Bulgarian man has come here to make a better life for himself and he’s been doing a fantastic job for us.” are far better than what you will hear at 'Live at the Apollo'.
2. LA's Scottish constituency polls are in line with the national polling which is prob why so little SPIN change this morning: it's already been factored in. Not so true in E&W where LA's polling doesn't quite tally. 3. LA's E&W constituency polling is stale. It's up to 6 months (sometimes more) out of date, pre Green surge, UKIP fade, Lab continued slide and Cons modest firm. We need new polling urgently if we're to rely on it.
Couple of points. 1. You are exaggerating recent changes in the National polling.... 2. The pattern in Lord Ashcroft's constituency polling of Liberal Democrat - Conservative seats, of the Liberal Democrats outperforming UNS in those contests, has been confirmed by the impressive by-election hold of Eastleigh. .........
Eastleigh was an exception. The LDs had 90%+ of the borough council seats. How many of their other MPs have 90%+ of the cllrs?
2. LA's Scottish constituency polls are in line with the national polling which is prob why so little SPIN change this morning: it's already been factored in. Not so true in E&W where LA's polling doesn't quite tally. 3. LA's E&W constituency polling is stale. It's up to 6 months (sometimes more) out of date, pre Green surge, UKIP fade, Lab continued slide and Cons modest firm. We need new polling urgently if we're to rely on it.
Couple of points. 1. You are exaggerating recent changes in the National polling.... 2. The pattern in Lord Ashcroft's constituency polling of Liberal Democrat - Conservative seats, of the Liberal Democrats outperforming UNS in those contests, has been confirmed by the impressive by-election hold of Eastleigh. .........
Eastleigh was an exception. The LDs had 90%+ of the borough council seats. How many of their other MPs have 90%+ of the cllrs?
You either need that or to have properly slagged off (And got sacked) by the Gov't (And a decent majority) in a Liberal marginal.
At the 2010 General Election Burstow was re-elected MP for Sutton and Cheam with a slim majority of 1,608 votes.He was then appointed Minister of State in the Department of Health in the coalition government. He was responsible for care services and the elderly. In December 2010, Burstow said he was "embarrassed" after being secretly taped by The Daily Telegraph saying voters should not trust David Cameron. Burstow told undercover reporters: "I don't want you to trust David Cameron... in the sense that you believe he's suddenly become a cuddly Liberal. Well, he hasn't. He's still a Conservative and he has values that I don't share." Burstow later told the BBC that he was sorry at the way his remarks had been construed and that he had "full trust" in David Cameron. Burstow was sacked as Health minister in September 2012. Just hours after losing his government job, he criticised plans to cut hospital services in London. Burstow said that a plan to axe a casualty and maternity unit in south-west London put patient safety at risk and warned they were likely to lead to "more mothers giving birth in the back of their car".
Tories also need a narrative for Scotland which they don't yet have. Their leader up here is very capable but has been quiet recently. The big issues of Europe, English votes etc are all for the South but not up here. Cameron needs to talk to the Scots and tell us what his plan is. If he does not then the Tories will stay at home. I am not sure they will vote SNP as really they are just another hard core left wing Glasgow party now.
It doesn't matter what the Tories do, until they ditch the Conservative and Unionist brand they will be stuck eternally on 15% which they have been in almost all elections for 25 years. Only pressing Murdo Fraser's nuclear button will ever change this.
Davidson is widely respected and does a good job but arguably so was Goldie and she had a higher Approval rating. But no matter who the leader, the Tory vote share doesn't change.
As you see they live in a fantasy world , hence their stupid choice of new leader. They deserve to be where they are languishing with the no hopers. They are run by donkeys.
With an existential question such as independence hanging over the country, isn't there a possibility that this will ultimately resolve itself into a 2-party system? The Tories [incredibly] seem to be reasonably well positioned to be the opposition.
Nope. Needs a new Unionist party, not related to the Tories (as the old one used to be).
Should have a Tory-lite policy platform - one of the reasons Labour is sinking is that they're fighting on similar policies to the SNP, but can't credibly promise to seek the best deal for Scotland. Not a difficult choice to make when put like that - as we're seeing.
Just needs a charismatic leader and some money and I think you've got a 20%+ share by 2020, and rising. Needs a Tory withdrawal from the country though, which is unlikely.
(yes, I know about the SUP - but they're a two-bit operation getting zero traction)
Dougie Alexander, as Head of Election Strategy, may well conclude that pouring money & resources into Paisley & Renfrewshire South is a good idea !
What use is a Head of Election Strategy if he is incapable of knowing and then defeating the threat in his own seat?
It is the SLAB MPs that are sleep walking into this mini disaster. Why are they so out of touch? We know from some past by elections before 2010 that much of SLABs canvassing data was poor to non existent. Labour HQ could see that and yet they just carried on ignoring the reality.
Sometimes you have to take one for the team.
In 1992, Chris Patten, the Tory Chairman, head of election strategy, knew he was going to lose his seat, but rather than allocate resources to his own seat, he sent them to more winnable seats.
Thus he became the Last Governor of Hong Kong after the election.
Says it all about the mentality of the left. Look at the colour of the skin not their records or abilities.
Lammy is a political lightweight with no real ability
Khan has some very disreputable friends and still needs to be held to account for his recent breaches of the law
But that doesn't matter as they aren't white.
Hodge - such a hypocrite. If you read the rest of the article, you see she wants a role in cracking down on tax avoidance. Well she knows how to do it - given the complicated set up she and her family use to avoid paying tax on their vast wealth.
No wonder Labour is in a mess when these sorts are in the top flight of the party...
This is a 2 horse race between Jowell and Khan imo, I'm on both.
Khan will be undone by his associations with undesirables. The press have only lightly touched on this so far - they won't hold back if he comes close to real power.
Says it all about the mentality of the left. Look at the colour of the skin not their records or abilities.
Lammy is a political lightweight with no real ability
Khan has some very disreputable friends and still needs to be held to account for his recent breaches of the law
But that doesn't matter as they aren't white.
Hodge - such a hypocrite. If you read the rest of the article, you see she wants a role in cracking down on tax avoidance. Well she knows how to do it - given the complicated set up she and her family use to avoid paying tax on their vast wealth.
No wonder Labour is in a mess when these sorts are in the top flight of the party...
Agreed. You wouldn't get a politician saying that the next Mayor should be white. So why say that he/she should be black?
What the next Mayor needs to be is competent and a person of integrity not someone who uses our money to fund cronies/favoured groups or communities/vanity projects.
I have serious objections to Khan. I would prefer Jowell - not least because she has a good track record of working with a range of people across parties and her role on the Olympics is what a Mayor needs.
(Edited): Given Hodge's role in Islington when child abuse was rife, ignored and victims were ignored or attached, she should have no ongoing role in public life.
It's all very well attacking dead politicians for their alleged role in child sex abuse but we should be equally diligent in saying to those who were in charge when similarly appalling crimes were occurring in a borough for which they were responsible that they failed, that their failure resulted in serious and appalling crimes being committed against the most vulnerable and that such a failure should be a bar to them lecturing the rest of us on morality.
Says it all about the mentality of the left. Look at the colour of the skin not their records or abilities.
Lammy is a political lightweight with no real ability
Khan has some very disreputable friends and still needs to be held to account for his recent breaches of the law
But that doesn't matter as they aren't white.
Hodge - such a hypocrite. If you read the rest of the article, you see she wants a role in cracking down on tax avoidance. Well she knows how to do it - given the complicated set up she and her family use to avoid paying tax on their vast wealth.
No wonder Labour is in a mess when these sorts are in the top flight of the party...
This is a 2 horse race between Jowell and Khan imo, I'm on both.
Khan will be undone by his associations with undesirables. The press have only lightly touched on this so far - they won't hold back if he comes close to real power.
.... Why oh why, for example, is a tory standing against Danny Alexander in Inverness?
Indeed.
Not to do so would cement the Tory/LD equivalence to the Scottish electorate. Real chance it would do more harm than good to the yellows. Although, that said, there's very little support left to harm.
I wonder whether any Scottish Labour MPs will have any questions for the Prime Minister today. It's hard to imagine him ignoring an observation on their security of tenure if he gets the opportunity.
@Margaret_Curran: Difficult poll today. I'm focussing on sending the Tories packing. Glasgow can't afford another five years of them. #VoteSNPgetTories
24 hours on from this polling, I'm still in a state of shock and amazement.
This polling is tote amazeballs.
It's wonderful. The prospect of Labour being ground into the dust in Scotland is just fantastic. Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath going SNP would be the icing on the cake.
“In none of the seats currently held by Labour does the party’s share of the overall vote drop by any less than 10 points, and in only six of the 14 does the vote drop by less than 20 points. In Glasgow East, Labour are polling 25 points under their 2010 result.”
@Margaret_Curran: Difficult poll today. I'm focussing on sending the Tories packing. Glasgow can't afford another five years of them. #VoteSNPgetTories
These people are ****ed
Don't you just love the willful blindess/stupidity of that sort of comment. Labour has run Glasgow for years. If it is so bad, they only have themselves to blame.
2. LA's Scottish constituency polls are in line with the national polling which is prob why so little SPIN change this morning: it's already been factored in. Not so true in E&W where LA's polling doesn't quite tally. 3. LA's E&W constituency polling is stale. It's up to 6 months (sometimes more) out of date, pre Green surge, UKIP fade, Lab continued slide and Cons modest firm. We need new polling urgently if we're to rely on it.
Couple of points. 1. You are exaggerating recent changes in the National polling.... 2. The pattern in Lord Ashcroft's constituency polling of Liberal Democrat - Conservative seats, of the Liberal Democrats outperforming UNS in those contests, has been confirmed by the impressive by-election hold of Eastleigh. .........
Eastleigh was an exception. The LDs had 90%+ of the borough council seats. How many of their other MPs have 90%+ of the cllrs?
Well, how do you know the Liberal Democrats need to have >90% of the councillors, and that ~50% isn't enough? Eastleigh is one part of the evidence we have, and it validates the results of the Ashcroft polling.
Note that the Ashcroft polling doesn't suggest that the Liberal Democrats will hold all their seats that they are defending from the Tories - just that they will out perform UNS. It's consistent with the Liberal Democrats losing seats to the Conservatives where their local councillor base has been swept away.
I wonder whether any Scottish Labour MPs will have any questions for the Prime Minister today. It's hard to imagine him ignoring an observation on their security of tenure if he gets the opportunity.
None listed and I doubt they will be catching the Speaker's eye.
Phil Wilson (Sedgefield) Susan Elan Jones (Clwyd South) Stuart Andrew (Pudsey) Mr Adrian Sanders (Torbay) Dan Jarvis (Barnsley Central) Joan Walley (Stoke-on-Trent North) Margot James (Stourbridge) Charlie Elphicke (Dover) Mr Graham Stuart (Beverley and Holderness) Tom Blenkinsop (Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland) Mr David Anderson (Blaydon) Mike Freer (Finchley and Golders Green) Jesse Norman (Hereford and South Herefordshire) Anne Marie Morris (Newton Abbot) Mark Durkan (Foyle)
.... Why oh why, for example, is a tory standing against Danny Alexander in Inverness?
Indeed.
The LibDems could have suggested running coalition candidates. There was a history of Liberal Unionists and National Liberals being successful as part of the Tory family in Scotland. If the LibDems lose most of their Scottish seats because they failed to see the sense of reverting to the pre1955 arrangement, so be it.
As I have said many times, we Scottish Tories can afford to play the long game. The SNP will eventually become unpopular and provided we have adopted the Murdo Fraser federal proposal, we should be set for a recovery among the centre-right voters who currently vote SNP.
Says it all about the mentality of the left. Look at the colour of the skin not their records or abilities.
Lammy is a political lightweight with no real ability
Khan has some very disreputable friends and still needs to be held to account for his recent breaches of the law
But that doesn't matter as they aren't white.
Hodge - such a hypocrite. If you read the rest of the article, you see she wants a role in cracking down on tax avoidance. Well she knows how to do it - given the complicated set up she and her family use to avoid paying tax on their vast wealth.
No wonder Labour is in a mess when these sorts are in the top flight of the party...
This is a 2 horse race between Jowell and Khan imo, I'm on both.
Khan will be undone by his associations with undesirables. The press have only lightly touched on this so far - they won't hold back if he comes close to real power.
Jowell? Not exactly inspiring, is she?
Where is the real talent on the left?
Douglas Alexander may be free.
I said 'talent' - nothing either of the Alexander siblings has ever done has indicated that they have any of it.
2. LA's Scottish constituency polls are in line with the national polling which is prob why so little SPIN change this morning: it's already been factored in. Not so true in E&W where LA's polling doesn't quite tally. 3. LA's E&W constituency polling is stale. It's up to 6 months (sometimes more) out of date, pre Green surge, UKIP fade, Lab continued slide and Cons modest firm. We need new polling urgently if we're to rely on it.
Couple of points. 1. You are exaggerating recent changes in the National polling.... 2. The pattern in Lord Ashcroft's constituency polling of Liberal Democrat - Conservative seats, of the Liberal Democrats outperforming UNS in those contests, has been confirmed by the impressive by-election hold of Eastleigh. .........
Eastleigh was an exception. The LDs had 90%+ of the borough council seats. How many of their other MPs have 90%+ of the cllrs?
Well, how do you know the Liberal Democrats need to have >90% of the councillors, and that ~50% isn't enough? Eastleigh is one part of the evidence we have, and it validates the results of the Ashcroft polling.
Note that the Ashcroft polling doesn't suggest that the Liberal Democrats will hold all their seats that they are defending from the Tories - just that they will out perform UNS. It's consistent with the Liberal Democrats losing seats to the Conservatives where their local councillor base has been swept away.
They have 90% of the councillors but not 90% of the vote.. I think it was more like 46% in the locals
2. LA's Scottish constituency polls are in line with the national polling which is prob why so little SPIN change this morning: it's already been factored in. Not so true in E&W where LA's polling doesn't quite tally. 3. LA's E&W constituency polling is stale. It's up to 6 months (sometimes more) out of date, pre Green surge, UKIP fade, Lab continued slide and Cons modest firm. We need new polling urgently if we're to rely on it.
Couple of points. 1. You are exaggerating recent changes in the National polling.... 2. The pattern in Lord Ashcroft's constituency polling of Liberal Democrat - Conservative seats, of the Liberal Democrats outperforming UNS in those contests, has been confirmed by the impressive by-election hold of Eastleigh. .........
Eastleigh was an exception. The LDs had 90%+ of the borough council seats. How many of their other MPs have 90%+ of the cllrs?
Well, how do you know the Liberal Democrats need to have >90% of the councillors, and that ~50% isn't enough? Eastleigh is one part of the evidence we have, and it validates the results of the Ashcroft polling.
Note that the Ashcroft polling doesn't suggest that the Liberal Democrats will hold all their seats that they are defending from the Tories - just that they will out perform UNS. It's consistent with the Liberal Democrats losing seats to the Conservatives where their local councillor base has been swept away.
I am not denying the validity of Ashcroft's polling. I just pointed out that Eastleigh was the ideal place for the LDs to fight a by election.
Says it all about the mentality of the left. Look at the colour of the skin not their records or abilities.
Lammy is a political lightweight with no real ability
Khan has some very disreputable friends and still needs to be held to account for his recent breaches of the law
But that doesn't matter as they aren't white.
Hodge - such a hypocrite. If you read the rest of the article, you see she wants a role in cracking down on tax avoidance. Well she knows how to do it - given the complicated set up she and her family use to avoid paying tax on their vast wealth.
No wonder Labour is in a mess when these sorts are in the top flight of the party...
This is a 2 horse race between Jowell and Khan imo, I'm on both.
Khan will be undone by his associations with undesirables. The press have only lightly touched on this so far - they won't hold back if he comes close to real power.
Jowell? Not exactly inspiring, is she?
Where is the real talent on the left?
Shaun Bailey @ 25/1.
Should happen. But won't. Sadly.
(Edit: of course Shaun is far from on the left!!! But would make a great London mayor.)
Says it all about the mentality of the left. Look at the colour of the skin not their records or abilities.
Lammy is a political lightweight with no real ability
Khan has some very disreputable friends and still needs to be held to account for his recent breaches of the law
But that doesn't matter as they aren't white.
Hodge - such a hypocrite. If you read the rest of the article, you see she wants a role in cracking down on tax avoidance. Well she knows how to do it - given the complicated set up she and her family use to avoid paying tax on their vast wealth.
No wonder Labour is in a mess when these sorts are in the top flight of the party...
This is a 2 horse race between Jowell and Khan imo, I'm on both.
Khan will be undone by his associations with undesirables. The press have only lightly touched on this so far - they won't hold back if he comes close to real power.
Jowell? Not exactly inspiring, is she?
Where is the real talent on the left?
Plenty of talent in the Lord's if they could get the interested Mandelson, Lord Sugar, Lord Desai, Lord Bragg even, but I think they should talk to Nick Hewer
Despite all the frenzied excitement overnight and this morning on PB.com concerning the results of the Ashcroft Scottish poll, the betting market's reaction appears to somewhat underwhelmed. Sporting have the Tories unchanged on a mid-spread of 282 seats, whilst Labour are down just one solitary seat on 279. As regards the SNP themselves, despite the normally unexcitable, feet firmly on the floor Robert Nabavi forecasting them moving comfortably above the 40 seat level, their mid-price spread price is currently 35 seats. Please excuse me whilst I yawn.
What the collapse of SLAB proves is that the majority of Scottish voters are simply 'Anti Tory', perhaps they were never particularly 'Pro Labour' but until 2010 voting Labour was the best/only Anti Tory vehicle. Now the SNP is that vehicle and SLAB don't stand a chance.
Similar to Unionists in Northern Ireland, they've always been Anti Nationalist/Republican above anything else, rather than driven by any burning allegiance to Westminster. The UUP was the best Anti Nationalist vote, now they've been replaced by the DUP.
Both SLAB and the UUP were seen to have compromised there own supporters in some ways, be it the good Friday agreement or Independence referendum, and if the UUP example is at all accurate SLAB is in for a long period in the wilderness.....
I wonder whether any Scottish Labour MPs will have any questions for the Prime Minister today. It's hard to imagine him ignoring an observation on their security of tenure if he gets the opportunity.
None listed and I doubt they will be catching the Speaker's eye.
Phil Wilson (Sedgefield) Susan Elan Jones (Clwyd South) Stuart Andrew (Pudsey) Mr Adrian Sanders (Torbay) Dan Jarvis (Barnsley Central) Joan Walley (Stoke-on-Trent North) Margot James (Stourbridge) Charlie Elphicke (Dover) Mr Graham Stuart (Beverley and Holderness) Tom Blenkinsop (Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland) Mr David Anderson (Blaydon) Mike Freer (Finchley and Golders Green) Jesse Norman (Hereford and South Herefordshire) Anne Marie Morris (Newton Abbot) Mark Durkan (Foyle)
Does the leader of the SNP in Westminster get to ask a question? It looks like there might be no questions from a Scottish MP to the Prime Minister, otherwise.
Ed B was on telly when the GDP numbers came out saying how worrying it was that growth was slowing... naturally...
David Smith@dsmitheconomics·2 mins2 minutes ago All three purchasing managers surveys showed improvement in January, with the service sector PMI up from 55.8 to 57.2. Strong start to 2015.
As they should be! We're a big energy importer, and the cost of our oil and gas just fell 40%. All other things being equal, the UK economy should be about 1% bigger in 2015, simply from a reduction in the "net imports" line of the national accounts.
It amazes me that Labour aren't making more of this. We all know that the oil price drop will provide an economic boost so Labour should be getting their excuses in early particularly since their focus has been cost of living ffs! Rank amateurs.
May I just caution PBers about Lord A's constituency polling.
None of the polling has named candidates which will be of certain benefit to incumbents, especially LibDems but also to a high profile candidate such as Salmond in the Gordon constituency.
Jack, most Scots voters have no idea who their Labour MP is. They only know s/he is likely to support Celtic and toe the line set out by the Archbishop of Glasgow.
PBers must remember that most Scots have 2 entirely different political representatives from different parties in different constituencies at present. I am a political anorak and I have no idea which council wards in Ross-shire are in Lord Thurso's Westminster seat but not in Rob Gibson's Holyrood seat.
So let me get this straight - scotland is about get a load of mps with policies most labpur supporters wish that party had, and ed is still looking on course for a majority of seats in england and wales, and still this is somehow bad for 'lefties'? Pb tory world is a funny place
I'm going to tune in for the first time in months. This is all very amusing - and a break from watching The Unit [rather good] and House [an old favourite].
I've just bought myself an MX box so all suggestions welcome.
I wonder whether any Scottish Labour MPs will have any questions for the Prime Minister today. It's hard to imagine him ignoring an observation on their security of tenure if he gets the opportunity.
None listed and I doubt they will be catching the Speaker's eye.
Phil Wilson (Sedgefield) Susan Elan Jones (Clwyd South) Stuart Andrew (Pudsey) Mr Adrian Sanders (Torbay) Dan Jarvis (Barnsley Central) Joan Walley (Stoke-on-Trent North) Margot James (Stourbridge) Charlie Elphicke (Dover) Mr Graham Stuart (Beverley and Holderness) Tom Blenkinsop (Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland) Mr David Anderson (Blaydon) Mike Freer (Finchley and Golders Green) Jesse Norman (Hereford and South Herefordshire) Anne Marie Morris (Newton Abbot) Mark Durkan (Foyle)
Does the leader of the SNP in Westminster get to ask a question? It looks like there might be no questions from a Scottish MP to the Prime Minister, otherwise.
The Speaker calls additional MPs such that questions alternate between Government & Opposition. The SNP usually get a question every few weeks.
24 hours on from this polling, I'm still in a state of shock and amazement.
This polling is tote amazeballs.
It's wonderful. The prospect of Labour being ground into the dust in Scotland is just fantastic. Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath going SNP would be the icing on the cake.
So let me get this straight - scotland is about get a load of mps with policies most labpur supporters wish that party had, and ed is still looking on course for a majority of seats in england and wales, and still this is somehow bad for 'lefties'? Pb tory world is a funny place
I wonder what Scots will be expecting from their nationalist MPs and how Salmond and co. will play it. Given the way they have been riding an anti-Tory wave it seems they would have to back Miliband who consequently wouldn't need to offer them much at all. If I were PM Ed I'd unveil a general social democratic agenda and dare the Nats to side with the Tories.
May I just caution PBers about Lord A's constituency polling.
None of the polling has named candidates which will be of certain benefit to incumbents, especially LibDems but also to a high profile candidate such as Salmond in the Gordon constituency.
Jack, most Scots voters have no idea who their Labour MP is. They only know s/he is likely to support Celtic and toe the line set out by the Archbishop of Glasgow.
PBers must remember that most Scots have 2 entirely different political representatives from different parties in different constituencies at present. I am a political anorak and I have no idea which council wards in Ross-shire are in Lord Thurso's Westminster seat but not in Rob Gibson's Holyrood seat.
Indeed but much of this Lord A constituency polling is quite tight and incumbency will help.
As for your admission of a miserable lack of awareness of your own Ross-shire backyard, I am shocked and stunned I tell you, shocked and stunned !!
As penance you are to take 100 lines noting :
"Vince Cable, former Glasgow socialist, is a top egg."
So let me get this straight - scotland is about get a load of mps with policies most labpur supporters wish that party had, and ed is still looking on course for a majority of seats in england and wales, and still this is somehow bad for 'lefties'? Pb tory world is a funny place
I never knew Mark Ferguson of Labourlist was a PB Tory
Ed B was on telly when the GDP numbers came out saying how worrying it was that growth was slowing... naturally...
David Smith@dsmitheconomics·2 mins2 minutes ago All three purchasing managers surveys showed improvement in January, with the service sector PMI up from 55.8 to 57.2. Strong start to 2015.
As they should be! We're a big energy importer, and the cost of our oil and gas just fell 40%. All other things being equal, the UK economy should be about 1% bigger in 2015, simply from a reduction in the "net imports" line of the national accounts.
David Smith also points out that at 700,000, job vacancies are at a record level.
24 hours on from this polling, I'm still in a state of shock and amazement.
This polling is tote amazeballs.
It's wonderful. The prospect of Labour being ground into the dust in Scotland is just fantastic. Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath going SNP would be the icing on the cake.
I thought Labour were safe in Glenrothes, being in the East and having a 40% majority - but who knows.
I think this projection for 2015:
Prediction for 2015- Roy (Labour)- 59% SNP- 27% Conservative- 6% Liberal Democrats- 4% UKIP- 3% Others- 1%
On UK Polling report may just, may just be a "Touch" optimistic for Labour though.
Ed B was on telly when the GDP numbers came out saying how worrying it was that growth was slowing... naturally...
David Smith@dsmitheconomics·2 mins2 minutes ago All three purchasing managers surveys showed improvement in January, with the service sector PMI up from 55.8 to 57.2. Strong start to 2015.
As they should be! We're a big energy importer, and the cost of our oil and gas just fell 40%. All other things being equal, the UK economy should be about 1% bigger in 2015, simply from a reduction in the "net imports" line of the national accounts.
It amazes me that Labour aren't making more of this. We all know that the oil price drop will provide an economic boost so Labour should be getting their excuses in early particularly since their focus has been cost of living ffs! Rank amateurs.
surely 1 reason not to do that is Labour's policy of freezing energy prices if they get to power. Better to keep them high now in case those prices are just short term..
So let me get this straight - scotland is about get a load of mps with policies most labpur supporters wish that party had, and ed is still looking on course for a majority of seats in england and wales, and still this is somehow bad for 'lefties'? Pb tory world is a funny place
I wonder what Scots will be expecting from their nationalist MPs and how Salmond and co. will play it. Given the way they have been riding an anti-Tory wave it seems they would have to back Miliband who consequently wouldn't need to offer them much at all. If I were PM Ed I'd unveil a general social democratic agenda and dare the Nats to side with the Tories.
Yeah, because kicking up a fuss in Westminster to get a better deal for Scotland will really harm them.
So let me get this straight - scotland is about get a load of mps with policies most labpur supporters wish that party had, and ed is still looking on course for a majority of seats in england and wales, and still this is somehow bad for 'lefties'? Pb tory world is a funny place
What makes you think Ms Sturgeon wants to support the Labour Party in the creation of this socialist paradise ? She wants to screw over the Labour Party, and the Tory Party as well if given the opportunity, so she can get an OUT vote for Scotland. A cuddly socialist UK government is the very last thing the SNP want as it will set back the cause for independence for a decade... sorry about that.
24 hours on from this polling, I'm still in a state of shock and amazement.
This polling is tote amazeballs.
It's wonderful. The prospect of Labour being ground into the dust in Scotland is just fantastic. Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath going SNP would be the icing on the cake.
I thought Labour were safe in Glenrothes, being in the East and having a 40% majority - but who knows.
I think this projection for 2015:
Prediction for 2015- Roy (Labour)- 59% SNP- 27% Conservative- 6% Liberal Democrats- 4% UKIP- 3% Others- 1%
On UK Polling report may just, may just be a "Touch" optimistic for Labour though.
So let me get this straight - scotland is about get a load of mps with policies most labpur supporters wish that party had, and ed is still looking on course for a majority of seats in england and wales, and still this is somehow bad for 'lefties'? Pb tory world is a funny place
What makes you think Ms Sturgeon wants to support the Labour Party in the creation of this socialist paradise ? She wants to screw over the Labour Party, and the Tory Party as well if given the opportunity, so she can get an OUT vote for Scotland. A cuddly socialist UK government is the very last thing the SNP want as it will set back the cause for independence for a decade... sorry about that.
When push comes to shove though the SNP will do a deal with Labour. And Labour will need the SNP more than the other way round. And that deal could destroy Labour in England. Which is good for the SNP.
Labour are in the traditional Lib Dem position of needing to tack left in some seats and right in the others. To be fair, the same is true of the Tories, but to a much lesser extent.
But those two parties simply can't get away with that.
So let me get this straight - scotland is about get a load of mps with policies most labpur supporters wish that party had, and ed is still looking on course for a majority of seats in england and wales, and still this is somehow bad for 'lefties'? Pb tory world is a funny place
What makes you think Ms Sturgeon wants to support the Labour Party in the creation of this socialist paradise ? She wants to screw over the Labour Party, and the Tory Party as well if given the opportunity, so she can get an OUT vote for Scotland. A cuddly socialist UK government is the very last thing the SNP want as it will set back the cause for independence for a decade... sorry about that.
There will only be another referendum if Westminster gives the green light. It's hard to envisage that happening for a while. As the SNP stated, it was a once in a lifetime opportunity.
2. LA's Scottish constituency polls are in line with the national polling which is prob why so little SPIN change this morning: it's already been factored in. Not so true in E&W where LA's polling doesn't quite tally. 3. LA's E&W constituency polling is stale. It's up to 6 months (sometimes more) out of date, pre Green surge, UKIP fade, Lab continued slide and Cons modest firm. We need new polling urgently if we're to rely on it.
Couple of points. 1. You are exaggerating recent changes in the National polling.... 2. The pattern in Lord Ashcroft's constituency polling of Liberal Democrat - Conservative seats, of the Liberal Democrats outperforming UNS in those contests, has been confirmed by the impressive by-election hold of Eastleigh. .........
Eastleigh was an exception. The LDs had 90%+ of the borough council seats. How many of their other MPs have 90%+ of the cllrs?
Well, how do you know the Liberal Democrats need to have >90% of the councillors, and that ~50% isn't enough? Eastleigh is one part of the evidence we have, and it validates the results of the Ashcroft polling.
Note that the Ashcroft polling doesn't suggest that the Liberal Democrats will hold all their seats that they are defending from the Tories - just that they will out perform UNS. It's consistent with the Liberal Democrats losing seats to the Conservatives where their local councillor base has been swept away.
I am not denying the validity of Ashcroft's polling. I just pointed out that Eastleigh was the ideal place for the LDs to fight a by election.
.... but not the ideal circumstances. As someone who lives in a neighbouring constituency, I can remember when Eastleigh was a Tory seat. At the By-Election caused by the death of Stephen Milligan it was considered a three way marginal.
"Seven million postal votes were issued in 2010 and the number is looking set to be even high this time round.
Not only are postal voters increasingly numerous, they also vote increasingly early as those administering elections have grown more and more keen to send out postal votes as promptly as possible given the administrative burdens involved in processing returned ballots (especially since the welcome introduction of the need to check security information on all returned postal ballots rather than on just a sample).
This time round, soundings with electoral returning officers show that most are going to start sending out postal ballots in the week commencing 13 April, weeks before polling day itself.
Rather like the frog that does not notice the slowly increasing temperature of the pot it is being cooked in, the long-term, sustained and major increase in postal voting levels has crept up and up and up without any one seismic change – and hence the numbers of people voting well before polling day has still not really been grasped by many who still set the timetables for their activity as if people only vote on polling day.
Grassroots electoral campaigners have long since learnt to run two ‘polling day’ operations but much of the rest of how elections, their coverage and the lobbying of candidates is organised is based on an increasingly antiquated notion of when people vote, with debates, events and coverage galore therefore happening after millions have voted."
2. LA's Scottish constituency polls are in line with the national polling which is prob why so little SPIN change this morning: it's already been factored in. Not so true in E&W where LA's polling doesn't quite tally. 3. LA's E&W constituency polling is stale. It's up to 6 months (sometimes more) out of date, pre Green surge, UKIP fade, Lab continued slide and Cons modest firm. We need new polling urgently if we're to rely on it.
Couple of points. 1. You are exaggerating recent changes in the National polling.... 2. The pattern in Lord Ashcroft's constituency polling of Liberal Democrat - Conservative seats, of the Liberal Democrats outperforming UNS in those contests, has been confirmed by the impressive by-election hold of Eastleigh. .........
Eastleigh was an exception. The LDs had 90%+ of the borough council seats. How many of their other MPs have 90%+ of the cllrs?
Well, how do you know the Liberal Democrats need to have >90% of the councillors, and that ~50% isn't enough? Eastleigh is one part of the evidence we have, and it validates the results of the Ashcroft polling.
Note that the Ashcroft polling doesn't suggest that the Liberal Democrats will hold all their seats that they are defending from the Tories - just that they will out perform UNS. It's consistent with the Liberal Democrats losing seats to the Conservatives where their local councillor base has been swept away.
I am not denying the validity of Ashcroft's polling. I just pointed out that Eastleigh was the ideal place for the LDs to fight a by election.
.... but not the ideal circumstances. As someone who lives in a neighbouring constituency, I can remember when Eastleigh was a Tory seat. At the By-Election caused by the death of Stephen Milligan it was considered a three way marginal.
On current projections the SNP supporters will be getting exactly what the majority of them want, the Tories out, someone who will argue for the best deal for Scotland and a party that could drag Labour away from cuts.
The only way this can change is if Labour's polling worsens or Labour rule out a coalition with the SNP.
So let me get this straight - scotland is about get a load of mps with policies most labpur supporters wish that party had, and ed is still looking on course for a majority of seats in england and wales, and still this is somehow bad for 'lefties'? Pb tory world is a funny place
That's easy to answer. SLAB MPs want Labour to do well, and will vote for a Labour government's policies as and when required. SNP MP's want Labour to fail, and will do what they can to harm both them, and the Conservatives, and vote against them if it suits their interests.
It's pretty much touch and go whether Labour will win most seats in England and Wales.
The two newly endangered species: Scottish Labour and English LibDem.
So you are happy to accept Lord A's findings for Scottish LAB seats but NOT Lord A's polling of CON LD targets in England. At least be consistent.
It's the disconnect between the national and the local polling that people struggle to understand Mike. For me the vote/seat problem is being squared very nicely by the Scottish polling. Lib Dems losing something like 6 out of 7 voters in uncompetitive seats, leaves them all for Eastleigh, Yeovil and places that matter.
I'm surprised more Lib Dem MPs haven't gone to Clegg's door begging to be sacked from Government btw - I suspect Tessa Munt's decision to resign her Government role means that although I think she's doomed in Wells... she probably has half a chance of hanging on.
That 6-4 on Lib Dems gaining any seat looks good to me btw.
If the LDs are not interested in government then what is the point of them?
24 hours on from this polling, I'm still in a state of shock and amazement.
This polling is tote amazeballs.
It's wonderful. The prospect of Labour being ground into the dust in Scotland is just fantastic. Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath going SNP would be the icing on the cake.
I thought Labour were safe in Glenrothes, being in the East and having a 40% majority - but who knows. I think this projection for 2015: Prediction for 2015- Roy (Labour)- 59% ....
Roy is standing down. Melanie Ward is the SLAB candidate.
Comments
None of the polling has named candidates which will be of certain benefit to incumbents, especially LibDems but also to a high profile candidate such as Salmond in the Gordon constituency.
Lammy is a political lightweight with no real ability
Khan has some very disreputable friends and still needs to be held to account for his recent breaches of the law
But that doesn't matter as they aren't white.
Hodge - such a hypocrite. If you read the rest of the article, you see she wants a role in cracking down on tax avoidance. Well she knows how to do it - given the complicated set up she and her family use to avoid paying tax on their vast wealth.
No wonder Labour is in a mess when these sorts are in the top flight of the party...
Why on earth are UKIP paying people to deliver leaflets... it's something you do yourself, putting in the hard yards - or delegate to other party members/get your kids to do it.
Employing someone to do it goes against every grain of doorstep politics I know.
It is the SLAB MPs that are sleep walking into this mini disaster. Why are they so out of touch? We know from some past by elections before 2010 that much of SLABs canvassing data was poor to non existent. Labour HQ could see that and yet they just carried on ignoring the reality.
But I'll email my contact at Betfair Sportsbook and ask them to put up a market.
Lets face it, lines like, “That young Bulgarian man has come here to make a better life for himself and he’s been doing a fantastic job for us.” are far better than what you will hear at 'Live at the Apollo'.
At the 2010 General Election Burstow was re-elected MP for Sutton and Cheam with a slim majority of 1,608 votes.He was then appointed Minister of State in the Department of Health in the coalition government. He was responsible for care services and the elderly.
In December 2010, Burstow said he was "embarrassed" after being secretly taped by The Daily Telegraph saying voters should not trust David Cameron. Burstow told undercover reporters: "I don't want you to trust David Cameron... in the sense that you believe he's suddenly become a cuddly Liberal. Well, he hasn't. He's still a Conservative and he has values that I don't share."
Burstow later told the BBC that he was sorry at the way his remarks had been construed and that he had "full trust" in David Cameron.
Burstow was sacked as Health minister in September 2012. Just hours after losing his government job, he criticised plans to cut hospital services in London. Burstow said that a plan to axe a casualty and maternity unit in south-west London put patient safety at risk and warned they were likely to lead to "more mothers giving birth in the back of their car".
Should have a Tory-lite policy platform - one of the reasons Labour is sinking is that they're fighting on similar policies to the SNP, but can't credibly promise to seek the best deal for Scotland. Not a difficult choice to make when put like that - as we're seeing.
Just needs a charismatic leader and some money and I think you've got a 20%+ share by 2020, and rising. Needs a Tory withdrawal from the country though, which is unlikely.
(yes, I know about the SUP - but they're a two-bit operation getting zero traction)
In 1992, Chris Patten, the Tory Chairman, head of election strategy, knew he was going to lose his seat, but rather than allocate resources to his own seat, he sent them to more winnable seats.
Thus he became the Last Governor of Hong Kong after the election.
Jowell? Not exactly inspiring, is she?
Where is the real talent on the left?
What the next Mayor needs to be is competent and a person of integrity not someone who uses our money to fund cronies/favoured groups or communities/vanity projects.
I have serious objections to Khan. I would prefer Jowell - not least because she has a good track record of working with a range of people across parties and her role on the Olympics is what a Mayor needs.
(Edited): Given Hodge's role in Islington when child abuse was rife, ignored and victims were ignored or attached, she should have no ongoing role in public life.
It's all very well attacking dead politicians for their alleged role in child sex abuse but we should be equally diligent in saying to those who were in charge when similarly appalling crimes were occurring in a borough for which they were responsible that they failed, that their failure resulted in serious and appalling crimes being committed against the most vulnerable and that such a failure should be a bar to them lecturing the rest of us on morality.
This polling is totes amazeballs.
The 'no whites here' approach to Labour's mayoral candidate is despicable.
These people are ****ed
Ah well the old ones are the oldest...
http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Totes+Amazeballs
@PimlicoPlumbers: I’m one business owner who isn’t going to keep quiet! http://t.co/TBuYvUteLr http://t.co/5SDJ8BPbHr
Note that the Ashcroft polling doesn't suggest that the Liberal Democrats will hold all their seats that they are defending from the Tories - just that they will out perform UNS. It's consistent with the Liberal Democrats losing seats to the Conservatives where their local councillor base has been swept away.
Phil Wilson (Sedgefield)
Susan Elan Jones (Clwyd South)
Stuart Andrew (Pudsey)
Mr Adrian Sanders (Torbay)
Dan Jarvis (Barnsley Central)
Joan Walley (Stoke-on-Trent North)
Margot James (Stourbridge)
Charlie Elphicke (Dover)
Mr Graham Stuart (Beverley and Holderness)
Tom Blenkinsop (Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland)
Mr David Anderson (Blaydon)
Mike Freer (Finchley and Golders Green)
Jesse Norman (Hereford and South Herefordshire)
Anne Marie Morris (Newton Abbot)
Mark Durkan (Foyle)
As I have said many times, we Scottish Tories can afford to play the long game. The SNP will eventually become unpopular and provided we have adopted the Murdo Fraser federal proposal, we should be set for a recovery among the centre-right voters who currently vote SNP.
Soooooooo many betting angles too......
Now, Know your groceries.
(Number 11 on this list)
http://mentalfloss.com/article/12540/26-beatnik-slang-words-and-phrases-we-should-all-start-using
Should happen. But won't. Sadly.
(Edit: of course Shaun is far from on the left!!! But would make a great London mayor.)
No mention of Scotland
Sporting have the Tories unchanged on a mid-spread of 282 seats, whilst Labour are down just one solitary seat on 279.
As regards the SNP themselves, despite the normally unexcitable, feet firmly on the floor Robert Nabavi forecasting them moving comfortably above the 40 seat level, their mid-price spread price is currently 35 seats.
Please excuse me whilst I yawn.
http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2015/02/ashcroft-shows-safe-labour-seats-really-risk/
Defending Labour to the end
Similar to Unionists in Northern Ireland, they've always been Anti Nationalist/Republican above anything else, rather than driven by any burning allegiance to Westminster. The UUP was the best Anti Nationalist vote, now they've been replaced by the DUP.
Both SLAB and the UUP were seen to have compromised there own supporters in some ways, be it the good Friday agreement or Independence referendum, and if the UUP example is at all accurate SLAB is in for a long period in the wilderness.....
PBers must remember that most Scots have 2 entirely different political representatives from different parties in different constituencies at present. I am a political anorak and I have no idea which council wards in Ross-shire are in Lord Thurso's Westminster seat but not in Rob Gibson's Holyrood seat.
I've just bought myself an MX box so all suggestions welcome.
The noble Lord has deep pockets.
As for your admission of a miserable lack of awareness of your own Ross-shire backyard, I am shocked and stunned I tell you, shocked and stunned !!
As penance you are to take 100 lines noting :
"Vince Cable, former Glasgow socialist, is a top egg."
I think this projection for 2015:
Prediction for 2015-
Roy (Labour)- 59%
SNP- 27%
Conservative- 6%
Liberal Democrats- 4%
UKIP- 3%
Others- 1%
On UK Polling report may just, may just be a "Touch" optimistic for Labour though.
I can't help feeling that a great deal of skullduggery will be involved on polling day.
But those two parties simply can't get away with that.
http://www.snp.org/media-centre/news/2014/sep/thursdays-vote-once-lifetime-opportunity-fm
As someone who lives in a neighbouring constituency, I can remember when Eastleigh was a Tory seat. At the By-Election caused by the death of Stephen Milligan it was considered a three way marginal.
Extract from Mark Pack newsletter
http://www.markpack.org.uk/116335/liberal-democrat-newswire-56/
"Seven million postal votes were issued in 2010 and the number is looking set to be even high this time round.
Not only are postal voters increasingly numerous, they also vote increasingly early as those administering elections have grown more and more keen to send out postal votes as promptly as possible given the administrative burdens involved in processing returned ballots (especially since the welcome introduction of the need to check security information on all returned postal ballots rather than on just a sample).
This time round, soundings with electoral returning officers show that most are going to start sending out postal ballots in the week commencing 13 April, weeks before polling day itself.
Rather like the frog that does not notice the slowly increasing temperature of the pot it is being cooked in, the long-term, sustained and major increase in postal voting levels has crept up and up and up without any one seismic change – and hence the numbers of people voting well before polling day has still not really been grasped by many who still set the timetables for their activity as if people only vote on polling day.
Grassroots electoral campaigners have long since learnt to run two ‘polling day’ operations but much of the rest of how elections, their coverage and the lobbying of candidates is organised is based on an increasingly antiquated notion of when people vote, with debates, events and coverage galore therefore happening after millions have voted."
The only way this can change is if Labour's polling worsens or Labour rule out a coalition with the SNP.
It's pretty much touch and go whether Labour will win most seats in England and Wales.