@georgeeaton Posted at tweets: Striking how high Tory morale and unity is at the moment. Feuds suspended until after the election. #PMQs"
Surely the main thing PMQs can affect - clearly they don't run that far into the country; they start in the chamber, get mangled by the political press, and might throw one or two tit-bits for the chattering classes.
Frankly, that EdM is LESS popular than DCameron in Scotland speaks volumes. And that's not even allowing for Gordon who remained more popular despite getting the Darwin Award for Best PM.
EIC looking crapper than normal at PMQs clear win for Cameron IMO despite not answering the pretty basic question
I think BJO that if even if we did get an SNP/Labour coalition, which is quite likely, it might not last long.
Ed's Englishmen, particularly those in marginal seats, would be in an open and permanent rebellion, as ed got slapped around by a phalanx of Scottish nats
Clegg is not happy with the way Cameron and the Tories are using everything for election purposes, including PMQ's. Cameron never answers many of the questions put to him and instead reads out something, which often does not relate to what was asked.
Curse that political party, playing politics in an election year.
Frankly, that EdM is LESS popular than DCameron in Scotland speaks volumes. And that's not even allowing for Gordon who remained more popular despite getting the Darwin Award for Best PM.
EIC looking crapper than normal at PMQs clear win for Cameron IMO despite not answering the pretty basic question
I think BJO that if even if we did get an SNP/Labour coalition, which is quite likely, it might not last long.
Ed's Englishmen, particularly those in marginal seats, would be in an open and permanent rebellion, as ed got slapped around by a phalanx of Scottish nats
Is Ed less popular than Cameron in Glasgow?
According to the slightly dubious 3-part question from Lord Ashcroft, yes.
(a) I am satisfied with the job David Cameron is doing overall as Prime Minister
(b) I am dissatisfied with the job that David Cameron is doing overall as Prime Minister - BUT I'd still prefer to have him as Prime Minister than have Ed Miliband as Prime Minister
(c) I am dissatisfied with the job that David Cameron is doing overall as Prime Minister – AND I'd prefer to have Ed Miliband as Prime Minister instead
Very sound CV, much better than most Labourites have to offer. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dan_Jarvis BS in International Politics and Strategic Studies. MA in Conflict, Security & Development from King's College London. Sandhurst Parachute Regiment Kosovo Sierra Leone 2 Tours in Afghanistan, first in recon, then as company commander for special forces support.
Sounds like Paddy Ashdown.
Not too keen on this guy, although this entirely down to the fact that I have bets on other Lab leader candidates. Maybe time to take a punt on him and cover myself?
May I just caution PBers about Lord A's constituency polling.
None of the polling has named candidates which will be of certain benefit to incumbents, especially LibDems but also to a high profile candidate such as Salmond in the Gordon constituency.
Jack, most Scots voters have no idea who their Labour MP is. They only know s/he is likely to support Celtic and toe the line set out by the Archbishop of Glasgow.
PBers must remember that most Scots have 2 entirely different political representatives from different parties in different constituencies at present. I am a political anorak and I have no idea which council wards in Ross-shire are in Lord Thurso's Westminster seat but not in Rob Gibson's Holyrood seat.
Could you give an example of where Labour does actually "toe the line set out by the Archbishop of Glasgow."? Are most Labour MPs anti-abortion for example? Nice bit of sectarianism you show there.
Before the Tories get too smug they ought to consider the fact that the same basic forces which are driving SNP support in Scotland are also responsible for increasing UKIP support in England.
PB Tories splattering their pants with baby-batter over the Ashcroft Scottish polls I see
Meanwhile, this week's national polls so far, that's 2 YG, Ashcroft GB poll, Populus, plus the latest TNS online poll (not to be confused with the "dodgy" phone poll carried out 23-26th Jan), gives Lab a 1.8% lead in ELBOW or 2.2% going by simple average - take your pick!
May I just caution PBers about Lord A's constituency polling.
None of the polling has named candidates which will be of certain benefit to incumbents, especially LibDems but also to a high profile candidate such as Salmond in the Gordon constituency.
And most of all, incumbancy will benefit current Labour MPs in Scotland which is perhaps why the betting markets have not been moved by Lord A's constituency polling.
Clearly these latest Scottish polls are poor for SLAB but I hope Lord A will fund constituency polls with named candidates to give a more accurate picture.
We should also note that SLAB have in the past enjoyed great stickability at general elections and an element of historical caution would be wise without of course diminishing the scale of the job at hand.
Before the Tories get too smug they ought to consider the fact that the same basic forces which are driving SNP support in Scotland are also responsible for increasing UKIP support in England.
Even I think there's more than one Unionist vote to be harvested. Probably.
I'm probably speaking out of turn, but there might be an opportunity for the tories. Even if they got say four seats north of the border (out of the posher parts of Scotland of course), that might be crucial given the electoral balance of power.
Maybe, but Unionist party supporters seem markedly resistant to voting for each other's parties.
'We must all rally behind the Unionist party most likely to win, which is of course my party.'
Before the Tories get too smug they ought to consider the fact that the same basic forces which are driving SNP support in Scotland are also responsible for increasing UKIP support in England.
And Green support?
Labour is an opposition the Tories understand. The SNP's current popularity is new. And yet equally they prevent DC from a majority. Indeed the latter taking LD seats makes it so much harder.
Clegg is not happy with the way Cameron and the Tories are using everything for election purposes, including PMQ's. Cameron never answers many of the questions put to him and instead reads out something, which often does not relate to what was asked.
Curse that political party, playing politics in an election year.
Peter Tapsell claimed on last night's TV docu on Houses of Commons that party leaders of 25 or 30 years ago would never have spoken to each at PMQs like they do now.
THat data really is interesting. Though they detest the tories, plenty of Scots seem OK with the economic conditions we have currently, looking at the table.
@JGForsyth: Confirmation of how ugly this election is going to be. Spouses now considered fair game at PMQs
What happened to labour's 'clean campaign' crap?
The Tories have been using gutter politics so far and Labour has enough ammunition to fire back if needed.
Labour doesn't know how to run a 'clean campaign' - smearing and lying is part of their political DNA. McBride wasn't the only bad apple.
And Miliband has lost the ear of the people. And so he can fire off whatever ammunition he likes, no-one is listening to him.
If people are not listening to Labour, why are they atleast level pegging in the polls. Remember that the Tories need to win about 3% more votes than Labour across the country, to still have the most seats. This does not appear likely, with UKIP taking votes from Tories and the likely tactical voting by Lib Dem 2010 voters against the Tories.
Before the Tories get too smug they ought to consider the fact that the same basic forces which are driving SNP support in Scotland are also responsible for increasing UKIP support in England.
And Green support?
Labour is an opposition the Tories understand. The SNP's current popularity is new. And yet equally they prevent DC from a majority. Indeed the latter taking LD seats makes it so much harder.
But those Lib Dem seats were gone long ago in most cases. The epic unpopularity of the Lib Dems in Scotland is not new. Indeed, the rise of the SNP may actually assist the Conservatives in their chances of taking a couple of seats from the Lib Dems themselves.
The campaign against Mrs IDS springs to mind. BetsyGate - I can't recall the details but it was dirty. The ethics of dragging spouses in is dubious. If they're on the payroll - well they're on the teat.
Whenever Labourites try to play the morality game - I just think Mr Make The White Folks Angry Minister for Immigration.
Even I think there's more than one Unionist vote to be harvested. Probably.
I'm probably speaking out of turn, but there might be an opportunity for the tories. Even if they got say four seats north of the border (out of the posher parts of Scotland of course), that might be crucial given the electoral balance of power.
It all hinges on the SNP surge weakening in the border areas. If it does they have an outside chance of holding one and gaining one or two. I think four is unlikely.
PB Tories splattering their pants with baby-batter over the Ashcroft Scottish polls I see
Meanwhile, this week's national polls so far, that's 2 YG, Ashcroft GB poll, Populus, plus the latest TNS online poll (not to be confused with the "dodgy" phone poll carried out 23-26th Jan), gives Lab a 1.8% lead in ELBOW or 2.2% going by simple average - take your pick!
It's not "dodgy", it's just not politically weighted. Why you've added it to Wikipedia is beyond me.
2. LA's Scottish constituency polls are in line with the national polling which is prob why so little SPIN change this morning: it's already been factored in. Not so true in E&W where LA's polling doesn't quite tally. 3. LA's E&W constituency polling is stale. It's up to 6 months (sometimes more) out of date, pre Green surge, UKIP fade, Lab continued slide and Cons modest firm. We need new polling urgently if we're to rely on it.
2. The pattern in Lord Ashcroft's constituency polling of Liberal Democrat - Conservative seats, of the Liberal Democrats outperforming UNS in those contests, has been confirmed by the impressive by-election hold of Eastleigh. If you have any evidence to contradict this, then share it.
In the 18 by elections held since Oldham East and Saddleworth the Liberal Democrat share of the vote has fallen by an average of 12.37%.
At Eastleigh they managed to do even worse than that, their share falling 14.44%. They were saved at that mid-term by election, as you know (I think) by the then UKIP surge where UKIP polled 27.8%. If you think UKIP are likely to do that well, and that you think you can translate that across to the General Election, be my guest.
Were the impressive Easteigh LibDem fall to be repeated nationally at the General Election they would poll 8.5%. Funnily enough that's exactly where they're currently polling.
Before the Tories get too smug they ought to consider the fact that the same basic forces which are driving SNP support in Scotland are also responsible for increasing UKIP support in England.
And Green support?
Labour is an opposition the Tories understand. The SNP's current popularity is new. And yet equally they prevent DC from a majority. Indeed the latter taking LD seats makes it so much harder.
But those Lib Dem seats were gone long ago in most cases. The epic unpopularity of the Lib Dems in Scotland is not new. Indeed, the rise of the SNP may actually assist the Conservatives in their chances of taking a couple of seats from the Lib Dems themselves.
Just two seats are of any consequence for the Tories in Scotland: West Aberdeenshire and Berwickshire, both of which they could take from the LDs. As for the other 57 seats, they'll easily hold Dumfriesshire and have no hopes at all in all the rest.
Before the Tories get too smug they ought to consider the fact that the same basic forces which are driving SNP support in Scotland are also responsible for increasing UKIP support in England.
And Green support?
Labour is an opposition the Tories understand. The SNP's current popularity is new. And yet equally they prevent DC from a majority. Indeed the latter taking LD seats makes it so much harder.
But those Lib Dem seats were gone long ago in most cases. The epic unpopularity of the Lib Dems in Scotland is not new. Indeed, the rise of the SNP may actually assist the Conservatives in their chances of taking a couple of seats from the Lib Dems themselves.
Fair enough point, but the SNP aren't making the LD's job any easier. That's why Gordon and Inverness are under threat - that's not a LD retreat, it's a rout.
Rotherham Council condemned as "not fit for purpose" by the Casey Report.
Tell us something we don't know.
My colleagues are definitely UKIP for the GE I think, though they have moved out of the Rotherham constituency.
UKIP should focus all their Yorkshire resources into Rother Valley and Rotherham, two very winnable seats.
What about Wentworth & Dearne? Similar to Rother Valley AFAIK.
Much more solid for Labour. UKIP need to focus on those seats which are historically strong for Labour, but where the Labour vote share has drifted down, on the back of low turnout, but where the opposition to Labour is split. UKIP need to persuade non-Labour voters that they're the only party that can beat Labour, as they nearly did at Heywood & Middleton.
@JGForsyth: Confirmation of how ugly this election is going to be. Spouses now considered fair game at PMQs
What happened to labour's 'clean campaign' crap?
The Tories have been using gutter politics so far and Labour has enough ammunition to fire back if needed.
Labour doesn't know how to run a 'clean campaign' - smearing and lying is part of their political DNA. McBride wasn't the only bad apple.
And Miliband has lost the ear of the people. And so he can fire off whatever ammunition he likes, no-one is listening to him.
If people are not listening to Labour, why are they atleast level pegging in the polls. Remember that the Tories need to win about 3% more votes than Labour across the country, to still have the most seats. This does not appear likely, with UKIP taking votes from Tories and the likely tactical voting by Lib Dem 2010 voters against the Tories.
UKIP is taking votes from Labour as well - but that doesn't fit your view.
LD switching to Labour - that is going to unravel to a certain extent with them returning home or just not voting.
I don't see Labour's vote holding up at current levels - the Greens will get more coverage as part of the campaign proper and they will take more votes from Labour.
There is no positive message from Labour. And it is probably too late to frame one - with Miliband as leader, it is impossible to see how they can.
Mr Evershed quotes - ...'antiquated notion of when people vote, with debates, events and coverage galore therefore happening after millions have voted''
13 April is about 3 weeks before the election date. Is that so bad? The quote is also 'start sending'... 'start'. It could be several days before the papers are received and even then this does not mean the vote would be returned immediately.
Elsewhere you will find '10 days'. I do not see this as being as antiquated as your source suggests - although it does lend some weight to Cameron's suggestion that the debates be held early and not in the middle of the campaign.
EdM asks four questions on arcane tax issue. Cam gets chance to batter Labour on a different point every time.
How many more PMQs until the election? I only ask because the full quote was “The day after his Shadow Chancellor was asked on the television could he think of one single business leader, do you know what he said, he said ‘Bill somebody’. Mr Speaker, ‘Bill somebody’ is not a person, ‘Bill somebody’ is Labour’s policy!”
Just two seats are of any consequence for the Tories in Scotland:
aren't there a couple of chances in Edinburgh? Is it possible some centre left unionists could chuck in their lot with the tories to avoid an SNP MP???
Before the Tories get too smug they ought to consider the fact that the same basic forces which are driving SNP support in Scotland are also responsible for increasing UKIP support in England.
UKIP is primarily driven by immigration and cultural concerns. The SNP aren't.
Remember that the Tories need to win about 3% more votes than Labour across the country, to still have the most seats.
You're not adjusting for Scotland.
That is because I don't think SNP will take as many seats from Labour as currently predicted. SNP have apparent support from YES supporters who previously backed Labour. But when it comes to the election, if the local Labour MP is fairly popular, then I expect many people will continue to support them.
@JGForsyth: Confirmation of how ugly this election is going to be. Spouses now considered fair game at PMQs
What happened to labour's 'clean campaign' crap?
The Tories have been using gutter politics so far and Labour has enough ammunition to fire back if needed.
Labour doesn't know how to run a 'clean campaign' - smearing and lying is part of their political DNA. McBride wasn't the only bad apple.
And Miliband has lost the ear of the people. And so he can fire off whatever ammunition he likes, no-one is listening to him.
If people are not listening to Labour, why are they atleast level pegging in the polls. Remember that the Tories need to win about 3% more votes than Labour across the country, to still have the most seats. This does not appear likely, with UKIP taking votes from Tories and the likely tactical voting by Lib Dem 2010 voters against the Tories.
UKIP is taking votes from Labour as well - but that doesn't fit your view.
LD switching to Labour - that is going to unravel to a certain extent with them returning home or just not voting.
I don't see Labour's vote holding up at current levels - the Greens will get more coverage as part of the campaign proper and they will take more votes from Labour.
There is no positive message from Labour. And it is probably too late to frame one - with Miliband as leader, it is impossible to see how they can.
Don't try to tell me what my view is. Look at the polling data, which confirms what I have said.
t seems that Labour are a disaster everywhere and with everyone except the voters.
If you look at the results in 2014, they are a disaster with the voters too. Its the pollsters where labour is still in the game. And on here we are taught to believe the pollsters.
That the shadow chancellor could not be bothered to do a bit of basic homework for a television interview suggests that he has given up on the election. And that is really bad news for Labour.
Just two seats are of any consequence for the Tories in Scotland:
aren't there a couple of chances in Edinburgh? Is it possible some centre left unionists could chuck in their lot with the tories to avoid an SNP MP???
The reverse is more likely IMO.
Tories/LD's chucking their lot in with Labour to avoid an SNP MP.
@paulwaugh: Sen.Lab sources usually refuse to comment on polls. But just sd @LordAshcroft poll shows SNP is Tories' "last best hope of staying in power"
Im a proponent of the watt governor theory of the persistent 1-2% lead - as soon as the Tories get any wind behind them, Red Dems and Greens starting flooding back. This is assisted by the Sir Giles Torquil of Offshore Investment Nourishment Inc factor.
@JGForsyth: Confirmation of how ugly this election is going to be. Spouses now considered fair game at PMQs
What happened to labour's 'clean campaign' crap?
The Tories have been using gutter politics so far and Labour has enough ammunition to fire back if needed.
Labour doesn't know how to run a 'clean campaign' - smearing and lying is part of their political DNA. McBride wasn't the only bad apple.
And Miliband has lost the ear of the people. And so he can fire off whatever ammunition he likes, no-one is listening to him.
If people are not listening to Labour, why are they atleast level pegging in the polls. Remember that the Tories need to win about 3% more votes than Labour across the country, to still have the most seats. This does not appear likely, with UKIP taking votes from Tories and the likely tactical voting by Lib Dem 2010 voters against the Tories.
UKIP is taking votes from Labour as well - but that doesn't fit your view.
LD switching to Labour - that is going to unravel to a certain extent with them returning home or just not voting.
I don't see Labour's vote holding up at current levels - the Greens will get more coverage as part of the campaign proper and they will take more votes from Labour.
There is no positive message from Labour. And it is probably too late to frame one - with Miliband as leader, it is impossible to see how they can.
Don't try to tell me what my view is. Look at the polling data, which confirms what I have said.
So are UKIP getting Labour switchers as well as Tory switchers? Simple question.
The Labour lead in the polls has gone. There has to be a reason for this. Given the apparent unpopularity of the Coalition, this should have been an easy election for Labour to win. But that is clearly not the case.
They chose the wrong leader who has failed to connect with the people. A leader who is not seen - even by his own party members - as Prime Ministerial.
New Zealand judge Lowell Goddard has been named by the home secretary as the head of a new inquiry into historical child sex abuse in England and Wales.
The new statutory inquiry - with powers to compel witnesses to attend and demand evidence - will replace a probe set up in July, Theresa May said.
PB Tories splattering their pants with baby-batter over the Ashcroft Scottish polls I see
Meanwhile, this week's national polls so far, that's 2 YG, Ashcroft GB poll, Populus, plus the latest TNS online poll (not to be confused with the "dodgy" phone poll carried out 23-26th Jan), gives Lab a 1.8% lead in ELBOW or 2.2% going by simple average - take your pick!
It's not "dodgy", it's just not politically weighted. Why you've added it to Wikipedia is beyond me.
As long as it appears on the TNS website, I'll consider it an "official" poll.
Meanwhile, the normal TNS online poll (29th Jan - 2nd Feb, and last undertaken on 19th Jan) gives Lab a 6% lead.
Even Ed Balls seemed to acknowledge that was a good crack.
Not all that funny in reality since 'Bill' (Bill Thomas) was a director of the Co-op bank, and we know how all that ended. (See Guido for the 'crack' joke) - Bill ran EDS who supplied the now world famous child support agency software.
Gawd preserve us from Bill and Balls running the UK.
Just two seats are of any consequence for the Tories in Scotland:
aren't there a couple of chances in Edinburgh? Is it possible some centre left unionists could chuck in their lot with the tories to avoid an SNP MP???
Stale prices now - but this is where they were under 20/1 last week:
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale 2/5 - this is the one they have Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk 11/8 - this is the LD gain possibility, looking like a bet at this price IMO Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine 3/1 - 3rd favs here, but a live chance if they can maintain 30% Dumfries and Galloway 7/1 - 3rd favs here to gain from Labour, again maintaining about 31% gives them half a chance Perth and North Perthshire 12/1 - this is SNP already, very unlikely though a No area Edinburgh South West 14/1 - Darling's seat, but they only start on 24%, split Unionist vote may well hand this to SNP Edinburgh West 16/1 - Ditto, currently LD, quite hard to see anything other than SNP now
@paulwaugh: Sen.Lab sources usually refuse to comment on polls. But just sd @LordAshcroft poll shows SNP is Tories' "last best hope of staying in power"
How? They wouldn't be anywhere near a working majority under any conceivable coalition.
Last year there was a council election in Coatbridge where Labour got 90% of the votes. That is the scale of the turnaround. If the big parties fight the election in Scotland on a national basis then they will lose heavily in Scotland. If they fight it on the SNP record they have a chance. Nicola Sturgeon is in a honeymoon period but we have real problems. The NHS is a mess. Is that the SNP's fault or David Cameron's? Reality is that it is more SNP than Tories but that is not what the people believe. The more Labour attack Tories about the NHS the more votes they lose in Scotland. Interesting.
LOL, do you read the stats, SNP are very popular after more than 7 years in power, Tories are hated and Labour are heading same way. The issue is London parties, the SNP , apart from Greens , are the ONLY Scottish party.
How well do think a "Scottish Unionists" party would fare? Positioned to the right of SNP but to staying well away from Tory ground, and distancing themselves from all the Westminster parties?
I think if as Dair said they were more socially conscious and centre right they could do very well. Tories with a heart would go down well I reckon
I hear from Mrs May's statement that Simon Bailey will lead the inquiry from the police's side. He's a very good guy - smart, ethical and I trusted him way back when we worked together. Be reassured. Some didn't like him as he was a bit full of himself - I thought it was entirely justified.
Before the Tories get too smug they ought to consider the fact that the same basic forces which are driving SNP support in Scotland are also responsible for increasing UKIP support in England.
UKIP is primarily driven by immigration and cultural concerns. The SNP aren't.
Agree, but there is an element of the rise in identity politics.
As noted below, the Conservatives are of relevance in a handful of seats in rural Scotland. Historically there has been a group that swung from the Conservatives to the SNP (hence the jibe about tartan Tories). This is presumably an attempt to get some of them back.
I doubt the English branch of the party minds the Scottish Conservatives having another pop at Ed Miliband either.
@JGForsyth: Confirmation of how ugly this election is going to be. Spouses now considered fair game at PMQs
What happened to labour's 'clean campaign' crap?
The Tories have been using gutter politics so far and Labour has enough ammunition to fire back if needed.
Labour doesn't know how to run a 'clean campaign' - smearing and lying is part of their political DNA. McBride wasn't the only bad apple.
And Miliband has lost the ear of the people. And so he can fire off whatever ammunition he likes, no-one is listening to him.
If people are not listening to Labour, why are they atleast level pegging in the polls. Remember that the Tories need to win about 3% more votes than Labour across the country, to still have the most seats. This does not appear likely, with UKIP taking votes from Tories and the likely tactical voting by Lib Dem 2010 voters against the Tories.
UKIP is taking votes from Labour as well - but that doesn't fit your view.
LD switching to Labour - that is going to unravel to a certain extent with them returning home or just not voting.
I don't see Labour's vote holding up at current levels - the Greens will get more coverage as part of the campaign proper and they will take more votes from Labour.
There is no positive message from Labour. And it is probably too late to frame one - with Miliband as leader, it is impossible to see how they can.
Don't try to tell me what my view is. Look at the polling data, which confirms what I have said.
So are UKIP getting Labour switchers as well as Tory switchers? Simple question.
The Labour lead in the polls has gone. There has to be a reason for this. Given the apparent unpopularity of the Coalition, this should have been an easy election for Labour to win. But that is clearly not the case.
They chose the wrong leader who has failed to connect with the people. A leader who is not seen - even by his own party members - as Prime Ministerial.
@JGForsyth: Confirmation of how ugly this election is going to be. Spouses now considered fair game at PMQs
What happened to labour's 'clean campaign' crap?
The Tories have been using gutter politics so far and Labour has enough ammunition to fire back if needed.
Labour doesn't know how to run a 'clean campaign' - smearing and lying is part of their political DNA. McBride wasn't the only bad apple.
And Miliband has lost the ear of the people. And so he can fire off whatever ammunition he likes, no-one is listening to him.
If people are not listening to Labour, why are they atleast level pegging in the polls. Remember that the Tories need to win about 3% more votes than Labour across the country, to still have the most seats. This does not appear likely, with UKIP taking votes from Tories and the likely tactical voting by Lib Dem 2010 voters against the Tories.
UKIP is taking votes from Labour as well - but that doesn't fit your view.
Do we have any Scottish Labour posters here btw - one thing that strikes m about the nats here is their... optimism.
Scottish Labour in my opinion is and was the most negative outfit in the whole of British politics. The SNP probably the most positive.
I expect Scottish Labour to start asking whether the SNP will do a deal with the Conservatives. I'd have thought the smartest reply from Sturgeon would be to rule out even abstaining on a Conservative confidence motion.
Sturgeon came out with a pretty emphatic "no deal with the Tories" back in October while Scottish Labour were still claiming that the SNP surge was a blip and waiting for things to "return to normal". Since mid-November, pretty much every single interview with a Labourite has them repeat the mantra "vote SNP get Cameron" and it hasn;t worked. As for Scottish Labour members. They don't really exist.
Yes, indications are that its now under 10,000 real members. Labour have not shifted resources into saving SLAB at the level required. What are their 40+ MPs doing down in Westminster? They should be back home re-building.
Meanwhile at Westminster at least 2 SLAB MPs are this morning sitting on the UK welfare committee (2 of the 11 are Scots) spending time questioning the formidable Esther Mcvey. At one point asking "what support have you given to those (0.0000057%) suffering from sanction X"?
Once they get their snouts in the trough , they only return a week or two before the next election
It seems that Labour are a disaster everywhere and with everyone except the voters.
I think being on the side of the people and not hedge funds and the vested interests is what is holding the Lab vote at potential EICIPM levels.
Just different vested interests, Mr MccLuskey's merry men and women for a start.
99% of the population have no idea what a hedge fund is or does, which I guess is what makes them an ideal target to attack. Most people would be quite surprised I imagine to hear that hedge funds pool private capital, and, shockingly, invests billions in British industry, some don't even "hedge" but I don't imagine Labour would be interested in that, since it doesn't follow the narrative.
PS Wonder why Hodges isn't focusing on why an arch-Blairite leader of Slab is a disaster for Labour?
The Blairites appear to have no answer to the SNP, Green or Ukip surge. It's strange that for a political brand that defined itself as being modern and fixated on endless change, they seem stuck in 1995.
@JGForsyth: Confirmation of how ugly this election is going to be. Spouses now considered fair game at PMQs
What happened to labour's 'clean campaign' crap?
The Tories have been using gutter politics so far and Labour has enough ammunition to fire back if needed.
Labour doesn't know how to run a 'clean campaign' - smearing and lying is part of their political DNA. McBride wasn't the only bad apple.
And Miliband has lost the ear of the people. And so he can fire off whatever ammunition he likes, no-one is listening to him.
If people are not listening to Labour, why are they atleast level pegging in the polls. Remember that the Tories need to win about 3% more votes than Labour across the country, to still have the most seats. This does not appear likely, with UKIP taking votes from Tories and the likely tactical voting by Lib Dem 2010 voters against the Tories.
UKIP is taking votes from Labour as well - but that doesn't fit your view.
Looking at Anthony Wells' House Effects, those companies that tend to show the best scores for UKIP tend to show the worst for the Conservatives. That's hardly surprising.
But, clearly, UKIP take Labour and Lib Dem votes as well as Conservative, just not so many.
Bill Somebody is one of those throw-away gaffes that sticks. Awkwardly.
The odd thing is that Bill Somebody sounds so ordinary. I know a Northern Labour voter who despises people called Tristram for purely their first name. "How can they vote Labour???"
This person would be appalled to think they were biased in *a negative way*. We had quite a ding-dong about snobbery here.
Bill Somebody sounds like a harmless Private Eye character - who wasn't even married to Mrs T.
EdM asks four questions on arcane tax issue. Cam gets chance to batter Labour on a different point every time.
How many more PMQs until the election? I only ask because the full quote was “The day after his Shadow Chancellor was asked on the television could he think of one single business leader, do you know what he said, he said ‘Bill somebody’. Mr Speaker, ‘Bill somebody’ is not a person, ‘Bill somebody’ is Labour’s policy!”
Just two seats are of any consequence for the Tories in Scotland:
aren't there a couple of chances in Edinburgh? Is it possible some centre left unionists could chuck in their lot with the tories to avoid an SNP MP???
It seems that Labour are a disaster everywhere and with everyone except the voters.
I think being on the side of the people and not hedge funds and the vested interests is what is holding the Lab vote at potential EICIPM levels.
Just different vested interests, Mr MccLuskey's merry men and women for a start.
99% of the population have no idea what a hedge fund is or does, which I guess is what makes them an ideal target to attack. Most people would be quite surprised I imagine to hear that hedge funds pool private capital, and, shockingly, invests billions in British industry, some don't even "hedge" but I don't imagine Labour would be interested in that, since it doesn't follow the narrative.
@georgeeaton Posted at tweets: Striking how high Tory morale and unity is at the moment. Feuds suspended until after the election. #PMQs"
Surely the main thing PMQs can affect - clearly they don't run that far into the country; they start in the chamber, get mangled by the political press, and might throw one or two tit-bits for the chattering classes.
This high Tory morale reminds me somehow of Labour's Sheffield hubris in 1992.
@georgeeaton Posted at tweets: Striking how high Tory morale and unity is at the moment. Feuds suspended until after the election. #PMQs"
Surely the main thing PMQs can affect - clearly they don't run that far into the country; they start in the chamber, get mangled by the political press, and might throw one or two tit-bits for the chattering classes.
This high Tory morale reminds me somehow of Labour's Sheffield hubris in 1992.
It's the unity that's more relevant, surely? Unity means they know it's tight but think they can win. Labour's unity is crumbling; draw your own conclusions.
99% of the population have no idea what a hedge fund is or does,
That 99% seems to include the Guardian and Ed Miliband. The figure he quoted for donations to the Conservative Party from hedge funds is entirely fictitious. It seems to be based on adding up all donations by any individual with any kind of business experience, or something like that.
It seems that Labour are a disaster everywhere and with everyone except the voters.
I think being on the side of the people and not hedge funds and the vested interests is what is holding the Lab vote at potential EICIPM levels.
Just different vested interests, Mr MccLuskey's merry men and women for a start.
99% of the population have no idea what a hedge fund is or does, which I guess is what makes them an ideal target to attack. Most people would be quite surprised I imagine to hear that hedge funds pool private capital, and, shockingly, invests billions in British industry, some don't even "hedge" but I don't imagine Labour would be interested in that, since it doesn't follow the narrative.
Just two seats are of any consequence for the Tories in Scotland:
aren't there a couple of chances in Edinburgh? Is it possible some centre left unionists could chuck in their lot with the tories to avoid an SNP MP???
Stale prices now - but this is where they were under 20/1 last week:
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale 2/5 - this is the one they have Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk 11/8 - this is the LD gain possibility, looking like a bet at this price IMO Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine 3/1 - 3rd favs here, but a live chance if they can maintain 30% Dumfries and Galloway 7/1 - 3rd favs here to gain from Labour, again maintaining about 31% gives them half a chance Perth and North Perthshire 12/1 - this is SNP already, very unlikely though a No area Edinburgh South West 14/1 - Darling's seat, but they only start on 24%, split Unionist vote may well hand this to SNP Edinburgh West 16/1 - Ditto, currently LD, quite hard to see anything other than SNP now
The 20/1 in Renfrewshire East on the Conservatives might be worth thinking about. With Jim Murphy potentially standing down (he seems to be dithering on this), the 30% that the Conservatives start on may prove a useful base, particularly if the SNP make disproportionate inroads into the Yes vote in this very middle class constituency's Labour base.
NB I'm not predicting a Conservative win, merely noting that 20/1 is worth thinking about.
Just two seats are of any consequence for the Tories in Scotland:
aren't there a couple of chances in Edinburgh? Is it possible some centre left unionists could chuck in their lot with the tories to avoid an SNP MP???
Stale prices now - but this is where they were under 20/1 last week:
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale 2/5 - this is the one they have Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk 11/8 - this is the LD gain possibility, looking like a bet at this price IMO Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine 3/1 - 3rd favs here, but a live chance if they can maintain 30% Dumfries and Galloway 7/1 - 3rd favs here to gain from Labour, again maintaining about 31% gives them half a chance Perth and North Perthshire 12/1 - this is SNP already, very unlikely though a No area Edinburgh South West 14/1 - Darling's seat, but they only start on 24%, split Unionist vote may well hand this to SNP Edinburgh West 16/1 - Ditto, currently LD, quite hard to see anything other than SNP now
The 20/1 in Renfrewshire East on the Conservatives might be worth thinking about. With Jim Murphy potentially standing down (he seems to be dithering on this), the 30% that the Conservatives start on may prove a useful base, particularly if the SNP make disproportionate inroads into the Yes vote in this very middle class constituency's Labour base.
NB I'm not predicting a Conservative win, merely noting that 20/1 is worth thinking about.
Dumfries & Galloway looks on paper a reasonable punt at 7/1
Just two seats are of any consequence for the Tories in Scotland:
aren't there a couple of chances in Edinburgh? Is it possible some centre left unionists could chuck in their lot with the tories to avoid an SNP MP???
Stale prices now - but this is where they were under 20/1 last week:
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale 2/5 - this is the one they have Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk 11/8 - this is the LD gain possibility, looking like a bet at this price IMO Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine 3/1 - 3rd favs here, but a live chance if they can maintain 30% Dumfries and Galloway 7/1 - 3rd favs here to gain from Labour, again maintaining about 31% gives them half a chance Perth and North Perthshire 12/1 - this is SNP already, very unlikely though a No area Edinburgh South West 14/1 - Darling's seat, but they only start on 24%, split Unionist vote may well hand this to SNP Edinburgh West 16/1 - Ditto, currently LD, quite hard to see anything other than SNP now
The 20/1 in Renfrewshire East on the Conservatives might be worth thinking about. With Jim Murphy potentially standing down (he seems to be dithering on this), the 30% that the Conservatives start on may prove a useful base, particularly if the SNP make disproportionate inroads into the Yes vote in this very middle class constituency's Labour base.
NB I'm not predicting a Conservative win, merely noting that 20/1 is worth thinking about.
20/1 in Fife North East (Ming's seat) doesn't look terrible either.
Do we have any Scottish Labour posters here btw - one thing that strikes m about the nats here is their... optimism.
Scottish Labour in my opinion is and was the most negative outfit in the whole of British politics. The SNP probably the most positive.
I expect Scottish Labour to start asking whether the SNP will do a deal with the Conservatives. I'd have thought the smartest reply from Sturgeon would be to rule out even abstaining on a Conservative confidence motion.
I think there are a number of us SNP ex-SLAB supporters posting. The depth of SLAB's decline is brutal my wife, most of my family and many work colleagues have all switched to SNP most from SLAB. I think "optimism" in a nutshell captures the mood of us all - deluded we may well be - but we are seeking something more than what the mainstream parties have to offer.
SLAB's biggest failing was to fail to spot that around 50% of it's core support base had deserted it, not in 2014, but way back in 2011 with the rot setting in as early as 2007. There's nothing SLAB can do to turn things around, indeed the SNP will now use the results of these constituency polls to focus their ground resources on the few SLAB/LibDem seats that remain out of their grasp.
The rot set in in 2005. The "Break up Britain, Scotland goes broke" leaflet turned me into a (mostly) party line SNP voter.
May I just caution PBers about Lord A's constituency polling.
None of the polling has named candidates which will be of certain benefit to incumbents, especially LibDems but also to a high profile candidate such as Salmond in the Gordon constituency.
And most of all, incumbancy will benefit current Labour MPs in Scotland which is perhaps why the betting markets have not been moved by Lord A's constituency polling.
Clearly these latest Scottish polls are poor for SLAB but I hope Lord A will fund constituency polls with named candidates to give a more accurate picture.
We should also note that SLAB have in the past enjoyed great stickability at general elections and an element of historical caution would be wise without of course diminishing the scale of the job at hand.
Stickability yes, but only up to a point.
Labour voters are so morally upright that they'd never vote Labour if the local Labour MP had been jailed for expenses fraud. Still less would they vote Labour if the local Labour council abets in covering up paedophile rape because the perps are from a favoured race and ethnicity.
In that situation Labour voters would desert the party in droves. Right?
@georgeeaton Posted at tweets: Striking how high Tory morale and unity is at the moment. Feuds suspended until after the election. #PMQs"
Surely the main thing PMQs can affect - clearly they don't run that far into the country; they start in the chamber, get mangled by the political press, and might throw one or two tit-bits for the chattering classes.
This high Tory morale reminds me somehow of Labour's Sheffield hubris in 1992.
It's the unity that's more relevant, surely? Unity means they know it's tight but think they can win. Labour's unity is crumbling; draw your own conclusions.
Labour's supposed disunity is because Ed is looking likely to win and the Blairites are absolutely terrified.
Comments
@georgeeaton
Posted at tweets: Striking how high Tory morale and unity is at the moment. Feuds suspended until after the election. #PMQs"
Surely the main thing PMQs can affect - clearly they don't run that far into the country; they start in the chamber, get mangled by the political press, and might throw one or two tit-bits for the chattering classes.
UKIP should focus all their Yorkshire resources into Rother Valley and Rotherham, two very winnable seats.
Yes. I understand that. So there's an opportunity for 'the party of the union' in Scotland...
Even to pick up a few seats.
LOL
Not too keen on this guy, although this entirely down to the fact that I have bets on other Lab leader candidates. Maybe time to take a punt on him and cover myself?
And Miliband has lost the ear of the people. And so he can fire off whatever ammunition he likes, no-one is listening to him.
Oh, and 2-0.
Meanwhile, this week's national polls so far, that's 2 YG, Ashcroft GB poll, Populus, plus the latest TNS online poll (not to be confused with the "dodgy" phone poll carried out 23-26th Jan), gives Lab a 1.8% lead in ELBOW or 2.2% going by simple average - take your pick!
We should also note that SLAB have in the past enjoyed great stickability at general elections and an element of historical caution would be wise without of course diminishing the scale of the job at hand.
GO scrapped stamp duty for hedge funds in 2011
So Ed right on the substance Cameron wrong but still mood music bad for LAB
'We must all rally behind the Unionist party most likely to win, which is of course my party.'
THat data really is interesting. Though they detest the tories, plenty of Scots seem OK with the economic conditions we have currently, looking at the table.
Whenever Labourites try to play the morality game - I just think Mr Make The White Folks Angry Minister for Immigration.
Change of law by GO save same Hedge Funds £145m.
Andrew Neale thinks it stinks.
LD switching to Labour - that is going to unravel to a certain extent with them returning home or just not voting.
I don't see Labour's vote holding up at current levels - the Greens will get more coverage as part of the campaign proper and they will take more votes from Labour.
There is no positive message from Labour. And it is probably too late to frame one - with Miliband as leader, it is impossible to see how they can.
13 April is about 3 weeks before the election date. Is that so bad? The quote is also 'start sending'... 'start'. It could be several days before the papers are received and even then this does not mean the vote would be returned immediately.
Other sources say postal voting packs are sent out 1 week
https://www.google.co.uk/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&rlz=1CAHPZT_enGB620GB620&ion=1&espv=2&ie=UTF-8#q=when+are+postal+vote+packs+usually+sent+pout
or 3 weeks or less
''Returning officers issue and despatch postal ballot packs at 5 p.m. on the eleventh working day before polling day at the earliest.''
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Postal_voting#Procedure
before voting day...
Elsewhere you will find '10 days'. I do not see this as being as antiquated as your source suggests - although it does lend some weight to Cameron's suggestion that the debates be held early and not in the middle of the campaign.
“The day after his Shadow Chancellor was asked on the television could he think of one single business leader, do you know what he said, he said ‘Bill somebody’. Mr Speaker, ‘Bill somebody’ is not a person, ‘Bill somebody’ is Labour’s policy!”
aren't there a couple of chances in Edinburgh? Is it possible some centre left unionists could chuck in their lot with the tories to avoid an SNP MP???
Giles Dilnot@reporterboy·31 mins31 minutes ago
Within this PMQs I reckon somebody is already on Twitter being "Bill Somebody"
Why do so many people spell his name incorrectly?
If you look at the results in 2014, they are a disaster with the voters too. Its the pollsters where labour is still in the game. And on here we are taught to believe the pollsters.
Tories/LD's chucking their lot in with Labour to avoid an SNP MP.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B9AEl3KIYAI7fvu.jpg
The Labour lead in the polls has gone. There has to be a reason for this. Given the apparent unpopularity of the Coalition, this should have been an easy election for Labour to win. But that is clearly not the case.
They chose the wrong leader who has failed to connect with the people. A leader who is not seen - even by his own party members - as Prime Ministerial.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-31130805
Meanwhile, the normal TNS online poll (29th Jan - 2nd Feb, and last undertaken on 19th Jan) gives Lab a 6% lead.
Gawd preserve us from Bill and Balls running the UK.
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale 2/5 - this is the one they have
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk 11/8 - this is the LD gain possibility, looking like a bet at this price IMO
Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine 3/1 - 3rd favs here, but a live chance if they can maintain 30%
Dumfries and Galloway 7/1 - 3rd favs here to gain from Labour, again maintaining about 31% gives them half a chance
Perth and North Perthshire 12/1 - this is SNP already, very unlikely though a No area
Edinburgh South West 14/1 - Darling's seat, but they only start on 24%, split Unionist vote may well hand this to SNP
Edinburgh West 16/1 - Ditto, currently LD, quite hard to see anything other than SNP now
Given how long it has taken to get started, I hope it will be allowed to make interim recommendations rather than allow the abuse to continue.
I doubt the English branch of the party minds the Scottish Conservatives having another pop at Ed Miliband either.
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/562606449113976832
99% of the population have no idea what a hedge fund is or does, which I guess is what makes them an ideal target to attack. Most people would be quite surprised I imagine to hear that hedge funds pool private capital, and, shockingly, invests billions in British industry, some don't even "hedge" but I don't imagine Labour would be interested in that, since it doesn't follow the narrative.
A constituency poll there would be interesting.
But, clearly, UKIP take Labour and Lib Dem votes as well as Conservative, just not so many.
The odd thing is that Bill Somebody sounds so ordinary. I know a Northern Labour voter who despises people called Tristram for purely their first name. "How can they vote Labour???"
This person would be appalled to think they were biased in *a negative way*. We had quite a ding-dong about snobbery here.
Bill Somebody sounds like a harmless Private Eye character - who wasn't even married to Mrs T.
NB I'm not predicting a Conservative win, merely noting that 20/1 is worth thinking about.
Labour voters are so morally upright that they'd never vote Labour if the local Labour MP had been jailed for expenses fraud. Still less would they vote Labour if the local Labour council abets in covering up paedophile rape because the perps are from a favoured race and ethnicity.
In that situation Labour voters would desert the party in droves. Right?
Much obliged, Tissue price. I'm still going to take a look what happened last time in those two Edinburgh seats.