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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Details of all 14 seats from the first round of the Lord As
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Details of all 14 seats from the first round of the Lord Ashcroft Scottish polling
The @LordAshcroft Scottish polling that's just been published is only the first round and covers mainly areas where YES did well in IndyRef
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With voters moving away from Labour and the LDs the Tories should be able to attract at least a portion of them. But they don't appear to capable of that.
Their best hope seems to be Labour doing badly, the Tories are unable to do well.
With regards to the greens and UKIP I believe their vote share will be much less than polling currently suggests, however I don't think it is out of the question that UKIP might come ahead of them in terms of vote share (although it is without question that UKIP will get less seats). I can see a LibDem revival come the election as I think voters will respond positively when they see Nick Clegg again. I think his capacity to win back voters is somewhat underestimated, there was a comedy program recently 'the last leg' that invited him on and viewers there and on social media responded incredibly positive towards him.
With regards to the Greens, I'm not sure that they will have the same 'water over a ducks back' protection that UKIP have when it comes to scrutiny. I think young people will be a bit put off by their anti-science approach to a number of issues. With regards to the rest of the populace, one only has to look at the way they have handled the citizens income debacle to see that they mightn't be prepared for the run up to May.
2013 locals: LD 13%, UKIP 22%
2014 locals: LD 11%, UKIP 18%
http://www.parliament.uk/briefing-papers/RP14-33/local-elections-2014
I still see the SNP topping 50% on the day.
But the fascinating issue is how much funding gets pulled from seats that are in Labour second tier seats to save SOMETHING in Scotland. Must be a boon to the Tories elsewhere in England - as the number of fights they are in gets drastically reduced.
Con 1.83, Lab 2.2
I guess Labour will focus on the fact that even on these huge swings several seats are very tight. If some SNP voters can be won back a catastrophe may yet be converted into a mere disaster. But I wouldn't bet on it.
Of course, if Labour does still end up the largest party despite these results it will be because it has won most seats in England. Expect a swift embrace of EV4EL at that point.
Thank goodness I took the advice of antifrank and placed extra bets on these seats over the weekend.
Huzzah to Antifrank for his brilliant strategy, I'm so glad I followed him in.
"Only" a 15% swing in Gordon, compared to 25% ish elsewhere.
I am assuming this is one shot deal from Lord A. It is possible that a national campaign and the much higher profile the national parties get on TV (even although it is Ed we are talking about here) will claw this back a bit. I expect those seats that are close to get closer as Labour play their "keep the tories out" card once again and the odd one might even be saved.
But this is at the margins where Dundee West isn't. I am not minded to vote for the muppet if it is not going to make any difference.
I still can't process these swings, they are up there with say Newbury 93.
Is a pity that Lord A didn't poll in Edinburgh or Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk (Con gain there)
If he gets thrashed by Dave again, Labour MPs are going to be in a very grumpy, fractious mood, and the media narrative writes itself.
Any PB Tory who takes part in the Daily YouGov, vote Labour, #SaveEd
Unionist parties really have to think about the implications of that. Why oh why, for example, is a tory standing against Danny Alexander in Inverness? On this polling it would not make much of a difference but it would help.
I would also be very interested to see Edinburgh West and East Dumbartonshire, 2 Lib Dem seats that really should fall to Labour but have to be in play at the very least with a swing of this magnitude.
We won't get one, of course, because our parties do not have the vision or the sense to work together in that way. Instead, they'll make it up as they go along, tweaking for partisan advantage until the whole edifice collapses entirely.
Tories - rural and southern England
Labour - urban and northern England
LibDem -south west pockets of resistance
SNP - most of Scotland
UKIP - angry pockets of southern England
Plaid - unpronounceable bits of Wales
NI - various parties
No one represents the UK yet they will have to form what's laughingly still called the UK parliament. Labour will be not only the largest party but will also have allies with more seats than the Tories likely allies. So EICIPM and we get a constitutional convention as promised and get to finally settle the need for a new form of UK where nations and regions actually have some power.
If the Tory vote holds up there around 30% and the Labour vote drops to below that, due to defectors to the SNP, then it could become a 3-way marginal that the Tories pick up through the middle.
And my 9-1 bet would come true.
What kind of idiots does he have in his team , ooopps McTernan and Dalgety. They are dumb and rotten to the core. Sure they will appreciate your vote.
It can only be downhill from now on for the SNP.
If there's no such thing as zero chance in betting, the idea now of a Labour majority is as close as it gets. It's a case of which side of 250 they now fall.
1) I agree with the point made on previous threads by scotslass and Dair that weighting by reference to 2010 recalled vote risks underestimating the swing to the SNP, because voters tend to get confused with their vote in 2011, when the SNP did far better. These polls may actually understate how well the SNP are doing in these seats right now.
2) It seems as if these results include limited unionist tactical voting. And Labour don't have much left to squeeze from either the Conservatives or the Lib Dems. As DavidL has already shown on thread, it's going to be hard for Labour to retain the limited tactical voting these polls show if the result looks like a foregone conclusion.
3) These polls tell us little about seats where No did well. We need constituency polls in places like Edinburgh and the Borders. Please, your Lordship?
1) The insufferable Nats are going to be even more insufferable
2) An Lab/SNP coalition might be the favourite now, which as a PB Tory Unionist, is bloody depressing.
We said he was crap, look at the evidence, he's about to turn Scotland into a near Labour MP free zone.
PB Tories, always right, we always learn.
Ed may be spared a wipeout yet.
The only thing I did that was a bit clever was to get on the SNP at very long odds in constituencies before the referendum result, and I got a great result from that for the wrong reason. Not that I'm complaining.
From late October onwards the odds were consistently behind the polling curve, as punters collectively betrayed a lack of imagination about what the national polling figures would look like in individual constituencies. This was true as late as last night. That sluggishness was the most baffling trend in political betting that I can recall in years.
BUT
I've covered SNP combinations in my betting.
It looks like Ed is going to have to re-enact Waterloo with his Imperial Guard already lying dead on the battlefield.
Ed Miliband has worse ratings than Cameron
IN GLASGOW
Which is why I don't think there will be much "ballot box" switching to Labour.
A year or two of EdM as PM and the wwc will switching to UKIP in massive numbers.
In any case you were a fan of his brother and he wouldn't have been any better.
They are down from 19% to 11% in Gordon - some of us can remember when Gordon was the "safest Tory seat in Scotland". (notionally pre-1997)
The Lib Dems that have moved themselves away from the Government - or have never been in it, Paul Burstow, Norman Baker, John Pugh will enjoy a massive boost (Relative to what they should have done on UNS)
Those that are in Government could well suffer the most - the 6-1 on Conservatives taking Twickenham is not as awful as perhaps one may think. Danny Alexander is losing his seat because of this.
Huppert has a very decent chance of holding on, Clegg is safe as Hallam is a centre-right constituency naturally and he has a big enough majority to cushion.
Carmichael could go, though his majority and the big No vote should save him.
Charlie Kennedy may be in danger, but I'd guess he'd be suffering a smaller swing than Danny.
Viscount Thurso may prove to be THE special case of the night.
DavidM. Charisma and brains
EdM. Able to unite party
EdB. Focussed, aggressive desire to win
AndyB. Human, warm
DianneA. Female
Just bad luck one person didn't have it all. EdB/DavidM were my choice.
A couple of others might have been spooked by the SNP ramping of taking Glasgow council a few years back, where Labour comfortably held on. Such as OGH.
A lot of punters have a lot to thank him for. Not only has he made himself a lot of money, but through his excellent timely tips, cool logic and forensic analysis, made a lot of us quite a bit of cash as well.
F1: it's the last day of the first test. Two more tests, four days each, after this, and then we have the first race in mid-March.
Now assuming we see a big shift in the constituency betting odds there might be value then betting on Labour.
Cowardice and complacency are his defining features.
Plus money-grubbing.
It is again worth emphasising that all of Labour's Scottish catastrophe has happened on Ed's watch. He has not yet been held to account for this.
Paddy has gone back in on the SNP at 1/4
Danny is 31% behind !
West Dunbartonshire, which had the second highest Yes votes, was one of the highest turnout areas.
14 council areas had higher than national average Yes votes, the mistake is just to concentrate on the ones that had higher than 50%.