Jonathan Would depend on SNP having balance of power and not getting their demands for more powers met, or maybe an EU out vote and Scotland in vote, (albeit a narrow majority of SNP voters would vote out)
In hindsight, it was a brilliant strategy by the Dave to only win one seat in Scotland last time.
I still can't process these swings, they are up there with say Newbury 93.
Is a pity that Lord A didn't poll in Edinburgh or Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk (Con gain there)
It's almost like the SNP have a ... superiour... ground... game.
And without access to Conservative cash to buy in a ground game this time round Labour are in trouble. Blair McDougall was quoted as saying that Better Together was going to leave no legacy behind and he didn't care if it did or not. Yes Scotland has left behind a loosely affiliated network of groups from Radical Independence to Women For Independence who are all willing to vote SNP at Westminster and vote how they really feel at Holyrood.
Last year there was a council election in Coatbridge where Labour got 90% of the votes. That is the scale of the turnaround. If the big parties fight the election in Scotland on a national basis then they will lose heavily in Scotland. If they fight it on the SNP record they have a chance. Nicola Sturgeon is in a honeymoon period but we have real problems. The NHS is a mess. Is that the SNP's fault or David Cameron's? Reality is that it is more SNP than Tories but that is not what the people believe. The more Labour attack Tories about the NHS the more votes they lose in Scotland. Interesting.
I think "epochal" is about right, when Labour would be doing better under the Tory leader than under their own. SLAB on the mortuary slab.
I don't see how Labour change this. Do they ignore Scotland - and effectively rule out becoming largest party in May? Or do they try and buy off the Scots with a good few extra shakes of the money tree? But if they do that, the SNP can retort - "if they'll offer that now, what else will they offer when they are desperate?" Plus it is a sure-fire way to piss of the English and Welsh voters - as all other parties will gleefully point out.
I would not want to be advising Labour right now for all the betting slips in antifrank's back pocket....
I'm really interested to see Dumfries and Galloway.
If the Tory vote holds up there around 30% and the Labour vote drops to below that, due to defectors to the SNP, then it could become a 3-way marginal that the Tories pick up through the middle.
And my 9-1 bet would come true.
The Tories are down in every seat quoted above - why would D&G be different? They are down from 19% to 11% in Gordon - some of us can remember when Gordon was the "safest Tory seat in Scotland". (notionally pre-1997)
It's in the borders, Holyrood elections indicate the SNP should be less strong there.
Yougov only has the Tories down by 1% in Scotland as a whole. It's logical their support would hold up best in the Borders. With luck, they could emerge with 2 or 3 seats.
LOL
that would be a laugh, the Tories the second largest party in Scotland.
Well played Antifrank, just sorry my betting funds are depleted and I couldn't follow you in more strongly. James Kelly points out that the SNP numbers are substantially downweighted on 2010 GE recall, so there's a chance the SNP figures could be even higher.
Bad taste I know, but those pics of that Taiwanese plane this am seems a fitting metaphor for at least a couple of Scottish party sub branches.
Tories also need a narrative for Scotland which they don't yet have. Their leader up here is very capable but has been quiet recently. The big issues of Europe, English votes etc are all for the South but not up here. Cameron needs to talk to the Scots and tell us what his plan is. If he does not then the Tories will stay at home. I am not sure they will vote SNP as really they are just another hard core left wing Glasgow party now.
@FraserNelson: Ashcroft poll on Scotland a reminder why Gordon Brown decided so late in day to stand down. Suddenly he faced a real fight -so he bottled it
@FraserNelson: Ashcroft poll on Scotland a reminder why Gordon Brown decided so late in day to stand down. Suddenly he faced a real fight -so he bottled it
That's a bit out of character for him.
The 7/2 available on the SNP for Kirkcaldy from Hills looks tasty. Had a little bite this morning.
Good morning on the day any pretence Labour can win the GE died. What a wonderful sight the prospect of SLAB being put on the slab and butchered by the SNP. We Tories know what it is like to be wiped out in Scotland and now the Labour party can experience it. The SNP bubble will burst one day but hopefully Scottish Labour will be utterly busted first.
So the two outliers that I removed from the second chart are Gordon (SMAPS predicts 37%, and Glasgow East where SMAPS predicts 57%). Otherwise the whole predict based on the Yes vote looks pretty solid.
"Well played Antifrank, just sorry my betting funds are depleted and I couldn't follow you in more strongly. James Kelly points out that the SNP numbers are substantially downweighted on 2010 GE recall, so there's a chance the SNP figures could be even higher."
Apart from me in my heyday and latterly Southam Observer James must be the worst predictor we've ever had on PB. Nonetheless a very good poster and him being almost certainly wrong doesn't lessen Labour's Scottish problems.
But having just returned from Aberdeen I have reason to think they wont do quite as badly as presently forcast. Or at least the results will be more patchy
Mike Smithson@MSmithsonPB·1 min1 minute ago Good (or less bad) news for LAB from Ashcroft is swing higher in seats polled than most other Scots polling. Could be better elsewhere
If he gets thrashed by Dave again, Labour MPs are going to be in a very grumpy, fractious mood, and the media narrative writes itself.
Any PB Tory who takes part in the Daily YouGov, vote Labour, #SaveEd
It's Wednesday; it's PMQs; so the pb Tories will declare unconditional victory for their man. Then I'll ask if this means CCHQ has ballsed up its debates strategy, and the pb Tories will explain that no, it is an act of mercy that Cameron does not want to take on Miliband.
You should listen to the PB Tories, we've been right about Ed all along.
We said he was crap, look at the evidence, he's about to turn Scotland into a near Labour MP free zone.
This is Dockside Hooker when 10 Fleets are in port Territory.
Huzzah to Antifrank for his brilliant strategy, I'm so glad I followed him in.
"Only" a 15% swing in Gordon, compared to 25% ish elsewhere.
Yep, it does look as if Antifrank is about to enter the PB Pantheon. One of the great political betting tips of all time. It certainly compares with the Smithson Obama call. Press lurkers may want to contact him. There is surely a story for them here.
I have to say a blind man could have spotted it up here at least. It has been obvious from the referendum that Labour and Lib Dems were going to get a kicking. Duplitious lying toerags , people are less than happy with the VOW and Home Rule and been getting unhappier by the day.
But Antifrank put his money where his mouth was. That takes cojones. If it was so obvious, he would not now be about to make an absolute killing.
I think it was obvious. That's why I bored people senseless with it for months.
The only thing I did that was a bit clever was to get on the SNP at very long odds in constituencies before the referendum result, and I got a great result from that for the wrong reason. Not that I'm complaining.
From late October onwards the odds were consistently behind the polling curve, as punters collectively betrayed a lack of imagination about what the national polling figures would look like in individual constituencies. This was true as late as last night. That sluggishness was the most baffling trend in political betting that I can recall in years.
Antifrank, bravo all the same and for the massive hat tip. Tell me, if you would, about the LibDems. What's your punting head telling you?
In short, I have no particular reason to disbelieve the general picture that Lord Ashcroft's constituency polls are showing us in Lib Dem marginals, and I think the Lib Dems will get something around 30 seats.
Some leads are so big. Will SLAB need to take some decisions and abandon some MPs to their destiny to specifically target seats where they are not so behind?
I would be interested in seeing polls for some Edinburgh seats too. I guess we may get another Scottish battleground in the coming future though...
Mr. Antifrank, I suspect you're right about the Lib Dems, but a counter-argument would be that in the European elections they did almost as badly as was technically possible (retaining just 1 seat in the European Parliament).
A General Election is a different kettle of fish, admittedly.
Tories also need a narrative for Scotland which they don't yet have. Their leader up here is very capable but has been quiet recently. The big issues of Europe, English votes etc are all for the South but not up here. Cameron needs to talk to the Scots and tell us what his plan is. If he does not then the Tories will stay at home. I am not sure they will vote SNP as really they are just another hard core left wing Glasgow party now.
It doesn't matter what the Tories do, until they ditch the Conservative and Unionist brand they will be stuck eternally on 15% which they have been in almost all elections for 25 years. Only pressing Murdo Fraser's nuclear button will ever change this.
Davidson is widely respected and does a good job but arguably so was Goldie and she had a higher Approval rating. But no matter who the leader, the Tory vote share doesn't change.
EdM is very, very lucky that in England UKIP is clearly a right-wing party. If it had evolved as a party of the centre-left it might well have spelled the complete end of Labour, enjoying swings in Labour heartlands down south comparable to those the SNP is now getting in Scotland.
Not really, they're evolving into a statist right-wing party, which many working class people want
It's what that bloc of the working class that has always voted Tory might want, but it's not going to win over many Labour voters. The SNP has got tens of thousands of straight switchers. UKIP won't get close to that because Labour voters know that UKIP's leadership is thoroughly Thatcherite.
We will see. If Ukip play their cards right they could have a decent chance at Labour seats at the 2020 election. But the party's leadership is currently in a 3-way tug-of-war between Faragists, O'Flynnists and Carswellites
Much as I cannot stand Ed Miliband, and as much as I want Labour to lose heavily, it is worth noting that its an extremely bad thing for democracy for the SNP to hold nearly all the seats in Scotland.
The worrying thing for Labour is that it's possible Ukip have peaked in terms of their damage to the Tories (they may take one more seat at the general election) but Labour are going to be hit by the SNP particularly but possibly in due course also the Greens, Plaid, Respect and maybe Ukip
The big question is whether England should have to go with unstable governance of education and health should there be a majority in England but not one for the whole UK. Or worse - governance by the SNP over our education and health.
If he gets thrashed by Dave again, Labour MPs are going to be in a very grumpy, fractious mood, and the media narrative writes itself.
Any PB Tory who takes part in the Daily YouGov, vote Labour, #SaveEd
It's Wednesday; it's PMQs; so the pb Tories will declare unconditional victory for their man. Then I'll ask if this means CCHQ has ballsed up its debates strategy, and the pb Tories will explain that no, it is an act of mercy that Cameron does not want to take on Miliband.
You should listen to the PB Tories, we've been right about Ed all along.
We said he was crap, look at the evidence, he's about to turn Scotland into a near Labour MP free zone.
Much as I cannot stand Ed Miliband, and as much as I want Labour to lose heavily, it is worth noting that its an extremely bad thing for democracy for the SNP to hold nearly all the seats in Scotland.
You seem to be confusing "the UK Constitutional settlement" for "democracy".
Much as I cannot stand Ed Miliband, and as much as I want Labour to lose heavily, it is worth noting that its an extremely bad thing for democracy for the SNP to hold nearly all the seats in Scotland.
Nonsense
Huge swings like this are the only way FPTP can work, your vote never ever ever mattered before in Coatsbridge.
In short, I have no particular reason to disbelieve the general picture that Lord Ashcroft's constituency polls are showing us in Lib Dem marginals, and I think the Lib Dems will get something around 30 seats.
Ah, thanks for that.
Interesting use of present tense given the fieldwork was mostly last summer, I believe? Since then we've seen UKIP drop, Greens rise significantly, Labour continue to slip slightly and the Conservatives firm up a wee dram.
I'd have thought all four of those are important re. LibDem seats?
A final factor is that, notwithstanding Mike's beloved, and rather sweet, belief that people vote solely for their local MP I would be very concerned about betting against national polls. Scotland is indicative because LA's polling constituency is little different from the latest YouGov Scottish poll.
This is Dockside Hooker when 10 Fleets are in port Territory.
Huzzah to Antifrank for his brilliant strategy, I'm so glad I followed him in.
"Only" a 15% swing in Gordon, compared to 25% ish elsewhere.
Yep, it does look as if Antifrank is about to enter the PB Pantheon. One of the great political betting tips of all time. It certainly compares with the Smithson Obama call. Press lurkers may want to contact him. There is surely a story for them here.
I have to say a blind man could have spotted it up here at least. It has been obvious from the referendum that Labour and Lib Dems were going to get a kicking. Duplitious lying toerags , people are less than happy with the VOW and Home Rule and been getting unhappier by the day.
But Antifrank put his money where his mouth was. That takes cojones. If it was so obvious, he would not now be about to make an absolute killing.
I think it was obvious. That's why I bored people senseless with it for months.
The only thing I did that was a bit clever was to get on the SNP at very long odds in constituencies before the referendum result, and I got a great result from that for the wrong reason. Not that I'm complaining.
From late October onwards the odds were consistently behind the polling curve, as punters collectively betrayed a lack of imagination about what the national polling figures would look like in individual constituencies. This was true as late as last night. That sluggishness was the most baffling trend in political betting that I can recall in years.
Antifrank, bravo all the same and for the massive hat tip. Tell me, if you would, about the LibDems. What's your punting head telling you?
In short, I have no particular reason to disbelieve the general picture that Lord Ashcroft's constituency polls are showing us in Lib Dem marginals, and I think the Lib Dems will get something around 30 seats.
This poll is actually good for the Lib Dems, shows them holding up better than expected in Gordon (imo SNP shouldn't be 1-7 there), and though they'll suffer alot in Scotland it basically shows that the big picture is that they will have the most extraordinary lumpiness in their vote.
Much as I cannot stand Ed Miliband, and as much as I want Labour to lose heavily, it is worth noting that its an extremely bad thing for democracy for the SNP to hold nearly all the seats in Scotland.
Nonsense
Huge swings like this are the only way FPTP can work, your vote never ever ever mattered before in Coatsbridge.
It does now.
Nonsense. Suppose the other parties bar the SNP only had one seat each. Do you think that would be good for democracy?
In short, I have no particular reason to disbelieve the general picture that Lord Ashcroft's constituency polls are showing us in Lib Dem marginals, and I think the Lib Dems will get something around 30 seats.
Ah, thanks for that.
Interesting use of present tense given the fieldwork was mostly last summer, I believe? Since then we've seen UKIP drop, Greens rise significantly, Labour continue to slip slightly and the Conservatives firm up a wee dram.
I'd have thought all four of those are important re. LibDem seats?
A final factor is that, notwithstanding Mike's beloved, and rather sweet, belief that people vote solely for their local MP I would be very concerned about betting against national polls. Scotland is indicative because LA's polling constituency is little different from the latest YouGov Scottish poll.
It is very well-established that Lib Dem incumbents can have huge personal votes. Why should this election be very different? Unlike Scotland, there is no huge swing underway, in favour of one party.
As to UKIP, in areas of Lib Dem strength, they take support almost equally from Conservatives and Lib Dems. Any slight fall in UKIP support will therefore be neutral as between the two.
Tories also need a narrative for Scotland which they don't yet have. Their leader up here is very capable but has been quiet recently. The big issues of Europe, English votes etc are all for the South but not up here. Cameron needs to talk to the Scots and tell us what his plan is. If he does not then the Tories will stay at home. I am not sure they will vote SNP as really they are just another hard core left wing Glasgow party now.
It doesn't matter what the Tories do, until they ditch the Conservative and Unionist brand they will be stuck eternally on 15% which they have been in almost all elections for 25 years. Only pressing Murdo Fraser's nuclear button will ever change this.
Davidson is widely respected and does a good job but arguably so was Goldie and she had a higher Approval rating. But no matter who the leader, the Tory vote share doesn't change.
I think Hamiltonace is right though. There needs to be more to Toryism in Scotland than Unionism. It will be hard to run on low taxes if these are devolved (though a very viable manifesto for 2011 Holyrood). Scots Tories need to have a campaign on UK rather than devolved issues, so Foreign policy inc Europe, and maintaining and improving the Scottish financial sector, etc.
Mind you campaigning on devolved isssues may work too, to a degree, just as campaining on National issues does well at locals and Euros.
The next thread should be dedicated to David Cameron's strategic brilliance.
He saved the Union and managed to destroy Scottish Labour in one move.
I detect the masterful strategy of George Osborne behind this.
Saving the Union via making Scotland a fiefdom of the SNP and forcing the rest of the UK to have to deal with minority governments because of it? Oh, and at the cost of maintaining permanently higher spending levels for Scotland than for England?
I see the Scots have finally woken up to the fact, that for generations, Labour have done sweet f' all to improve things north of the border. They deserve a good kicking.
Tories also need a narrative for Scotland which they don't yet have. Their leader up here is very capable but has been quiet recently. The big issues of Europe, English votes etc are all for the South but not up here. Cameron needs to talk to the Scots and tell us what his plan is. If he does not then the Tories will stay at home. I am not sure they will vote SNP as really they are just another hard core left wing Glasgow party now.
It doesn't matter what the Tories do, until they ditch the Conservative and Unionist brand they will be stuck eternally on 15% which they have been in almost all elections for 25 years. Only pressing Murdo Fraser's nuclear button will ever change this.
Davidson is widely respected and does a good job but arguably so was Goldie and she had a higher Approval rating. But no matter who the leader, the Tory vote share doesn't change.
I think Hamiltonace is right though. There needs to be more to Toryism in Scotland than Unionism. It will be hard to run on low taxes if these are devolved (though a very viable manifesto for 2011 Holyrood). Scots Tories need to have a campaign on UK rather than devolved issues, so Foreign policy inc Europe, and maintaining and improving the Scottish financial sector, etc.
Mind you campaigning on devolved isssues may work too, to a degree, just as campaining on National issues does well at locals and Euros.
If the Tories campaigned on their current Economic platform, with a more socially conscious Social platform and on a fully Federal UK under the banner of the old Progressive Party, they would be able to challenge the SNP.
Not sure why Ed is so unpopular in Scotland, or maybe it would be the same whoever was leader, unless they were Scottish.
I don't think it is only about Ed, I also think that ... given there is only a 15.5% swing to Salmond - Sturgeon > Salmond too
I think Sturgeon is more popular than Salmond, and Gordon not only had a big personal vote in hie seat - he sort of had it for the whole of Scotland.
Generally speaking, as far back as I can remember, Sturgeon has had a better overall Approval but that came from a much lower Negative rating. Salmond has generally led in Positive rating but Sturgeon leading overall.
Who was the punter that got on 1-15 Scottish Labour seats at something like 15-1 and higher btw ?!
Calum I think, he posted his book enough times so we should remember. I bet 1 British pound on 0-5 at forty to one and hedged out up to 20 seats so I'm 10-1 on 0-5 for four pounds.
I see the Scots have finally woken up to the fact, that for generations, Labour have done sweet f' all to improve things north of the border. They deserve a good kicking.
The question is why are the English north of the Trent impervious to Ed's serious deficiencies ? What insight have the Scots gained of late that our Northern brethren lack ?
This is Dockside Hooker when 10 Fleets are in port Territory.
Huzzah to Antifrank for his brilliant strategy, I'm so glad I followed him in.
"Only" a 15% swing in Gordon, compared to 25% ish elsewhere.
Yep, it does look as if Antifrank is about to enter the PB Pantheon. One of the great political betting tips of all time. It certainly compares with the Smithson Obama call. Press lurkers may want to contact him. There is surely a story for them here.
I have to say a blind man could have spotted it up here at least. It has been obvious from the referendum that Labour and Lib Dems were going to get a kicking. Duplitious lying toerags , people are less than happy with the VOW and Home Rule and been getting unhappier by the day.
But Antifrank put his money where his mouth was. That takes cojones. If it was so obvious, he would not now be about to make an absolute killing.
I think it was obvious. That's why I bored people senseless with it for months.
The only thing I did that was a bit clever was to get on the SNP at very long odds in constituencies before the referendum result, and I got a great result from that for the wrong reason. Not that I'm complaining.
From late October onwards the odds were consistently behind the polling curve, as punters collectively betrayed a lack of imagination about what the national polling figures would look like in individual constituencies. This was true as late as last night. That sluggishness was the most baffling trend in political betting that I can recall in years.
Antifrank, bravo all the same and for the massive hat tip. Tell me, if you would, about the LibDems. What's your punting head telling you?
In short, I have no particular reason to disbelieve the general picture that Lord Ashcroft's constituency polls are showing us in Lib Dem marginals, and I think the Lib Dems will get something around 30 seats.
This poll is actually good for the Lib Dems, shows them holding up better than expected in Gordon (imo SNP shouldn't be 1-7 there), and though they'll suffer alot in Scotland it basically shows that the big picture is that they will have the most extraordinary lumpiness in their vote.
It does show Lib Dem support to be highly concentrated, which is what they want. The problem is their overall support is so low, that even this degree of concentration can only save 3-4 seats.
Do we have any Scottish Labour posters here btw - one thing that strikes m about the nats here is their... optimism.
Scottish Labour in my opinion is and was the most negative outfit in the whole of British politics. The SNP probably the most positive.
I expect Scottish Labour to start asking whether the SNP will do a deal with the Conservatives. I'd have thought the smartest reply from Sturgeon would be to rule out even abstaining on a Conservative confidence motion.
Much as I cannot stand Ed Miliband, and as much as I want Labour to lose heavily, it is worth noting that its an extremely bad thing for democracy for the SNP to hold nearly all the seats in Scotland.
Nonsense
Huge swings like this are the only way FPTP can work, your vote never ever ever mattered before in Coatsbridge.
It does now.
Nonsense. Suppose the other parties bar the SNP only had one seat each. Do you think that would be good for democracy?
That can only happen if that's what people vote for. Pretty much the definition of democracy.
You may not like it, the voters may come to regret it, but it's definitely democracy.
I see the Scots have finally woken up to the fact, that for generations, Labour have done sweet f' all to improve things north of the border. They deserve a good kicking.
The question is why are the English north of the Trent impervious to Ed's serious deficiencies ? What insight have the Scots gained of late that our Northern brethren lack ?
They're well aware of his deficiencies. But, they dislike the Conservatives even more.
I see the Scots have finally woken up to the fact, that for generations, Labour have done sweet f' all to improve things north of the border. They deserve a good kicking.
The question is why are the English north of the Trent impervious to Ed's serious deficiencies ? What insight have the Scots gained of late that our Northern brethren lack ?
They're well aware of his deficiencies. But, they dislike the Conservatives even more.
UKIP on the other hand, are in with a shout... just wait to a couple years into a Miliband government.
That said, both main Parties are utterly discredited.
Both are on the same downward trajectory. As seismically and terminally catastrophic as these polls are for Labour, for the Tories they clearly show they are dead and buried in Scotland as an electoral force.
This election it seems is going to be decided in the East Midlands. The rest of us need not bother!
And seeing as that is the case, the CBI helpfuly predicted the strongest jobs growth out of all the regions will be in the East Midlands in 2015. Hmmm.
Much as I cannot stand Ed Miliband, and as much as I want Labour to lose heavily, it is worth noting that its an extremely bad thing for democracy for the SNP to hold nearly all the seats in Scotland.
Nonsense
Huge swings like this are the only way FPTP can work, your vote never ever ever mattered before in Coatsbridge.
It does now.
Nonsense. Suppose the other parties bar the SNP only had one seat each. Do you think that would be good for democracy?
That can only happen if that's what people vote for. Pretty much the definition of democracy.
You may not like it, the voters may come to regret it, but it's definitely democracy.
Quite agree, this is the only time FPTP actually works properly - every single Scottish vote counts now. That can't be said for anywhere else in the UK.
Do we have any Scottish Labour posters here btw - one thing that strikes m about the nats here is their... optimism.
Scottish Labour in my opinion is and was the most negative outfit in the whole of British politics. The SNP probably the most positive.
I expect Scottish Labour to start asking whether the SNP will do a deal with the Conservatives. I'd have thought the smartest reply from Sturgeon would be to rule out even abstaining on a Conservative confidence motion.
Sturgeon came out with a pretty emphatic "no deal with the Tories" back in October while Scottish Labour were still claiming that the SNP surge was a blip and waiting for things to "return to normal".
Since mid-November, pretty much every single interview with a Labourite has them repeat the mantra "vote SNP get Cameron" and it hasn;t worked.
As for Scottish Labour members. They don't really exist.
I see the Scots have finally woken up to the fact, that for generations, Labour have done sweet f' all to improve things north of the border. They deserve a good kicking.
The question is why are the English north of the Trent impervious to Ed's serious deficiencies ? What insight have the Scots gained of late that our Northern brethren lack ?
They're well aware of his deficiencies. But, they dislike the Conservatives even more.
UKIP on the other hand, are in with a shout... just wait to a couple years into a Miliband government.
2 years into a Miliband government - there will be 3 years left of a Miliband government.
Do we have any Scottish Labour posters here btw - one thing that strikes m about the nats here is their... optimism.
Scottish Labour in my opinion is and was the most negative outfit in the whole of British politics. The SNP probably the most positive.
I expect Scottish Labour to start asking whether the SNP will do a deal with the Conservatives. I'd have thought the smartest reply from Sturgeon would be to rule out even abstaining on a Conservative confidence motion.
Sturgeon came out with a pretty emphatic "no deal with the Tories" back in October while Scottish Labour were still claiming that the SNP surge was a blip and waiting for things to "return to normal".
Since mid-November, pretty much every single interview with a Labourite has them repeat the mantra "vote SNP get Cameron" and it hasn;t worked.
As for Scottish Labour members. They don't really exist.
She needs to rule out abstaining though, as the SNP could hand Conservatives most seats. The Lib Dems could well abstain too, with UKIP and DUP supporting a confidence motion.
She needs to rule out absteining if it's ever brought up.
For those looking for a political bet while the Scottish constituency markets are closed for maintenance, this one might appeal to our host. Ladbrokes offer the following:
Lib Dems to gain any seat not won in 2010: 6/4
This is barely shorter than the Lib Dem price for Watford, so you get on the Lib Dems in Montgomeryshire, Oxford West & Abingdon, Ashfield and any other seats where you form a wild fancy that the Lib Dems might surge more or less as a free saver bet on the Lib Dems taking Watford.
I see the Scots have finally woken up to the fact, that for generations, Labour have done sweet f' all to improve things north of the border. They deserve a good kicking.
The question is why are the English north of the Trent impervious to Ed's serious deficiencies ? What insight have the Scots gained of late that our Northern brethren lack ?
They're well aware of his deficiencies. But, they dislike the Conservatives even more.
UKIP on the other hand, are in with a shout... just wait to a couple years into a Miliband government.
2 years into a Miliband government - there will be 3 years left of a Miliband government.
And no referendum - but you will be happy.
I don't really buy the argument that a Milliband-led minority government would be both a disaster, and at the same time, popular and stable.
I think after two years (assuming it survived that long) it would be getting a hammering in local elections and by-elections. And, if the Tories can't win in the urban North, it must be to their advantage that Labour should lose seats there to UKIP.
Shurely there's some shum mistake in all these national and constituency polls. The great Murphy has declared that Labour will not loose a single seat! Does anyone give any credibility whatsoever now to this complete flat earther - bring back Lamont at least she was sincere.
For those looking for a political bet while the Scottish constituency markets are closed for maintenance, this one might appeal to our host. Ladbrokes offer the following:
Lib Dems to gain any seat not won in 2010: 6/4
This is barely shorter than the Lib Dem price for Watford, so you get on the Lib Dems in Montgomeryshire, Oxford West & Abingdon, Ashfield and any other seats where you form a wild fancy that the Lib Dems might surge more or less as a free saver bet on the Lib Dems taking Watford.
I'm on.
The "3 leaders to go" bet is also still available at 10-1.
Like one or two others, I missed the party, but not for a bad reason. I've never understood Scotland and have always avoided it (bettingwise) for that reason. I'm the same with flat racing. Haven't got a clue, so I just don't get involved.
Glad you have benefited though. You've been very generous and fair with your assessments, and many here have good reason to be thankful.
The areas that voted YES in the Indyref also had the lowest turnout.
Ed may be spared a wipeout yet.
There is an insignificant negative relationship between turnout and IndyRef vote. If you remove Glasgow from the results then it turns into a (insignificant) positive relationship between turnout and vote.
West Dunbartonshire, which had the second highest Yes votes, was one of the highest turnout areas.
14 council areas had higher than national average Yes votes, the mistake is just to concentrate on the ones that had higher than 50%.
The other mistake to make is to think that people who voted NO will not vote SNP in GE. A lot of them wanted more powers and given what is on offer they are not going to get them other than by voting SNP at the GE.
Tories also need a narrative for Scotland which they don't yet have. Their leader up here is very capable but has been quiet recently. The big issues of Europe, English votes etc are all for the South but not up here. Cameron needs to talk to the Scots and tell us what his plan is. If he does not then the Tories will stay at home. I am not sure they will vote SNP as really they are just another hard core left wing Glasgow party now.
It doesn't matter what the Tories do, until they ditch the Conservative and Unionist brand they will be stuck eternally on 15% which they have been in almost all elections for 25 years. Only pressing Murdo Fraser's nuclear button will ever change this. Davidson is widely respected and does a good job but arguably so was Goldie and she had a higher Approval rating. But no matter who the leader, the Tory vote share doesn't change.
Labour must be hoping most of the seats in Edinburgh, Fife and Ayrshire will be sticking with them in defiance of the swing in the Glasgow area.
Possible but unlikely and they are mostly less safe for Labour outside Glasgow anyh way. It's worth remembering that today's polls only confirm what we've seen nationally for the last 2/3 months. There could be a huge swing-back of course but this seems like one of those seismic shifts which could be permanent. Unless we get a new constitutional settlement which 'Federalises' the UK. It might just work. Marf's silly poster smearing the idea of EVEL is endemic unfortunately of an attitude that this is just about Scotland and bunging a few more lumps of pork from English taxpayers will sort it out. I really don't think so.
Since mid-November, pretty much every single interview with a Labourite has them repeat the mantra "vote SNP get Cameron" and it hasn;t worked.
Mainly because it has the correlated but unvoiced mantra 'Vote Labour and get Miliband'.
I am actually surprised just how despised Ed is north of the border. He seems relatively inoffensive and he pops out the occasional social justice soundbite that SLabbers cling onto to make themselves feel warm & fuzzy.
Last year there was a council election in Coatbridge where Labour got 90% of the votes. That is the scale of the turnaround. If the big parties fight the election in Scotland on a national basis then they will lose heavily in Scotland. If they fight it on the SNP record they have a chance. Nicola Sturgeon is in a honeymoon period but we have real problems. The NHS is a mess. Is that the SNP's fault or David Cameron's? Reality is that it is more SNP than Tories but that is not what the people believe. The more Labour attack Tories about the NHS the more votes they lose in Scotland. Interesting.
LOL, do you read the stats, SNP are very popular after more than 7 years in power, Tories are hated and Labour are heading same way. The issue is London parties, the SNP , apart from Greens , are the ONLY Scottish party.
Do we have any Scottish Labour posters here btw - one thing that strikes m about the nats here is their... optimism.
Scottish Labour in my opinion is and was the most negative outfit in the whole of British politics. The SNP probably the most positive.
I expect Scottish Labour to start asking whether the SNP will do a deal with the Conservatives. I'd have thought the smartest reply from Sturgeon would be to rule out even abstaining on a Conservative confidence motion.
Sturgeon came out with a pretty emphatic "no deal with the Tories" back in October while Scottish Labour were still claiming that the SNP surge was a blip and waiting for things to "return to normal".
Since mid-November, pretty much every single interview with a Labourite has them repeat the mantra "vote SNP get Cameron" and it hasn;t worked.
As for Scottish Labour members. They don't really exist.
I think the SNP anti-Tory position is necessary for them now. However, it also emphasises the key reason why the Union cannot work long-term. Like it or lump it there will always be the potential for a right-wing majority in the rUK sufficient to win overall. If Scotland can't live with this the Union is doomed.
Yet anyone in Scotland who thinks that by voting SNP they’ll get a Labour/SNP government is playing a very dangerous game. The reality is that every Labour seat lost makes it less likely that Miliband will head the largest party.
This line is correct twice over. But not for the reasons the author thinks it is.
Last year there was a council election in Coatbridge where Labour got 90% of the votes. That is the scale of the turnaround. If the big parties fight the election in Scotland on a national basis then they will lose heavily in Scotland. If they fight it on the SNP record they have a chance. Nicola Sturgeon is in a honeymoon period but we have real problems. The NHS is a mess. Is that the SNP's fault or David Cameron's? Reality is that it is more SNP than Tories but that is not what the people believe. The more Labour attack Tories about the NHS the more votes they lose in Scotland. Interesting.
LOL, do you read the stats, SNP are very popular after more than 7 years in power, Tories are hated and Labour are heading same way. The issue is London parties, the SNP , apart from Greens , are the ONLY Scottish party.
How well do think a "Scottish Unionists" party would fare? Positioned to the right of SNP but to staying well away from Tory ground, and distancing themselves from all the Westminster parties?
A remarkable poll, terrible for Labour no doubt about that. Shame there wasn't any polling of an Edinburgh constituency for comparison.
The SNP seem to have got themselves into the rather brilliant position of being the party of government and the party of protest at the same time, a paradox that seems to have been greatly aided by loosing the referendum.
Comments
More heartwarming anecdotes about the 'ordinary folk' of Dartmouth Park perhaps ? Or maybe a haggis eating photostunt in Motherwell market ?
I'm looking forward to reading a Labour equivalent of the Matthew Parris 'The voters are out of touch not the politicians' article.
Blimey, appalling numbers for SLabour - could Ed go down in Labour’s history book as the man who lost them Scotland?
And without access to Conservative cash to buy in a ground game this time round Labour are in trouble. Blair McDougall was quoted as saying that Better Together was going to leave no legacy behind and he didn't care if it did or not. Yes Scotland has left behind a loosely affiliated network of groups from Radical Independence to Women For Independence who are all willing to vote SNP at Westminster and vote how they really feel at Holyrood.
I don't see how Labour change this. Do they ignore Scotland - and effectively rule out becoming largest party in May? Or do they try and buy off the Scots with a good few extra shakes of the money tree? But if they do that, the SNP can retort - "if they'll offer that now, what else will they offer when they are desperate?" Plus it is a sure-fire way to piss of the English and Welsh voters - as all other parties will gleefully point out.
I would not want to be advising Labour right now for all the betting slips in antifrank's back pocket....
that would be a laugh, the Tories the second largest party in Scotland.
Bad taste I know, but those pics of that Taiwanese plane this am seems a fitting metaphor for at least a couple of Scottish party sub branches.
Surely the intended narrative was that Alistair Darling returned triumphant from Better Together to usurp Ed's crown.
The 7/2 available on the SNP for Kirkcaldy from Hills looks tasty. Had a little bite this morning.
Smaps vs Ashcroft
Smaps vs Ashcroft without outliers
So the two outliers that I removed from the second chart are Gordon (SMAPS predicts 37%, and Glasgow East where SMAPS predicts 57%). Otherwise the whole predict based on the Yes vote looks pretty solid.
"Well played Antifrank, just sorry my betting funds are depleted and I couldn't follow you in more strongly. James Kelly points out that the SNP numbers are substantially downweighted on 2010 GE recall, so there's a chance the SNP figures could be even higher."
Apart from me in my heyday and latterly Southam Observer James must be the worst predictor we've ever had on PB. Nonetheless a very good poster and him being almost certainly wrong doesn't lessen Labour's Scottish problems.
But having just returned from Aberdeen I have reason to think they wont do quite as badly as presently forcast. Or at least the results will be more patchy
Good (or less bad) news for LAB from Ashcroft is swing higher in seats polled than most other Scots polling. Could be better elsewhere
Always looking on the bright side....
If Scottish Labour thinks even a small amount of this is going to be overturned before May they are deluding themselves.
http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2015/02/missing-presumed-red-2010-lib-dems.html
In short, I have no particular reason to disbelieve the general picture that Lord Ashcroft's constituency polls are showing us in Lib Dem marginals, and I think the Lib Dems will get something around 30 seats.
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/02/scottish-battleground/
Some leads are so big. Will SLAB need to take some decisions and abandon some MPs to their destiny to specifically target seats where they are not so behind?
I would be interested in seeing polls for some Edinburgh seats too. I guess we may get another Scottish battleground in the coming future though...
https://www.healthinsurancedaily.com/health-insurance/product-area/pmi/article456611.ece?utm_medium=email&utm_term=&utm_source=GB179 Health Insurance_Coffee Break Alerts&utm_content=&utm_campaign=Copy of CBA XML Edition
A General Election is a different kettle of fish, admittedly.
Davidson is widely respected and does a good job but arguably so was Goldie and she had a higher Approval rating. But no matter who the leader, the Tory vote share doesn't change.
I guess this means they will try to give away more of our money to bribe the voters to come back to them.
If this holds up Ed has a huge battle to become next PM.
I expect at any minute to see Audreyanne perform her pom pom routine in a kilt
He saved the Union and managed to destroy Scottish Labour in one move.
I detect the masterful strategy of George Osborne behind this.
Huge swings like this are the only way FPTP can work, your vote never ever ever mattered before in Coatsbridge.
It does now.
Interesting use of present tense given the fieldwork was mostly last summer, I believe? Since then we've seen UKIP drop, Greens rise significantly, Labour continue to slip slightly and the Conservatives firm up a wee dram.
I'd have thought all four of those are important re. LibDem seats?
A final factor is that, notwithstanding Mike's beloved, and rather sweet, belief that people vote solely for their local MP I would be very concerned about betting against national polls. Scotland is indicative because LA's polling constituency is little different from the latest YouGov Scottish poll.
As to UKIP, in areas of Lib Dem strength, they take support almost equally from Conservatives and Lib Dems. Any slight fall in UKIP support will therefore be neutral as between the two.
Mind you campaigning on devolved isssues may work too, to a degree, just as campaining on National issues does well at locals and Euros.
I think Sturgeon is more popular than Salmond, and Gordon not only had a big personal vote in hie seat - he sort of had it for the whole of Scotland.
"Not sure why Ed is so unpopular in Scotland, or maybe it would be the same whoever was leader, unless they were Scottish."
He doesn't have red hair a ruddy complexion and a face ravaged by midge bites
(but the make up department are working on it)
Until then, they won't move at all.
Big spender I am.
Scottish Labour in my opinion is and was the most negative outfit in the whole of British politics. The SNP probably the most positive.
I expect Scottish Labour to start asking whether the SNP will do a deal with the Conservatives. I'd have thought the smartest reply from Sturgeon would be to rule out even abstaining on a Conservative confidence motion.
You may not like it, the voters may come to regret it, but it's definitely democracy.
No markets up.
That said, both main Parties are utterly discredited.
Both are on the same downward trajectory. As seismically and terminally catastrophic as these polls are for Labour, for the Tories they clearly show they are dead and buried in Scotland as an electoral force.
This election it seems is going to be decided in the East Midlands. The rest of us need not bother!
And seeing as that is the case, the CBI helpfuly predicted the strongest jobs growth out of all the regions will be in the East Midlands in 2015. Hmmm.
And finally, FPTP. A dead voting system walking.
Since mid-November, pretty much every single interview with a Labourite has them repeat the mantra "vote SNP get Cameron" and it hasn;t worked.
As for Scottish Labour members. They don't really exist.
And no referendum - but you will be happy.
She needs to rule out absteining if it's ever brought up.
Lib Dems to gain any seat not won in 2010: 6/4
This is barely shorter than the Lib Dem price for Watford, so you get on the Lib Dems in Montgomeryshire, Oxford West & Abingdon, Ashfield and any other seats where you form a wild fancy that the Lib Dems might surge more or less as a free saver bet on the Lib Dems taking Watford.
I think after two years (assuming it survived that long) it would be getting a hammering in local elections and by-elections. And, if the Tories can't win in the urban North, it must be to their advantage that Labour should lose seats there to UKIP.
Ashcroft:... SNP 48, LAB 25
Ipsos:.........SNP 45, LAB 21
Comres......SNP 44, LAB 23
YG:............ SNP 43, LAB 27
ICM............SNP 39, LAB 31
Populus:.... SNP 34, LAB 30
Does this mega polling tell us something about the findings of some of the UK pollsters?
Does it mean that their Scottish findings are wrong, and therefore their headline UK numbers are wrong?
The "3 leaders to go" bet is also still available at 10-1.
I'm on once more.
Like one or two others, I missed the party, but not for a bad reason. I've never understood Scotland and have always avoided it (bettingwise) for that reason. I'm the same with flat racing. Haven't got a clue, so I just don't get involved.
Glad you have benefited though. You've been very generous and fair with your assessments, and many here have good reason to be thankful.
I am actually surprised just how despised Ed is north of the border. He seems relatively inoffensive and he pops out the occasional social justice soundbite that SLabbers cling onto to make themselves feel warm & fuzzy.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-31125998
Yet anyone in Scotland who thinks that by voting SNP they’ll get a Labour/SNP government is playing a very dangerous game. The reality is that every Labour seat lost makes it less likely that Miliband will head the largest party.
This line is correct twice over. But not for the reasons the author thinks it is.
The SNP seem to have got themselves into the rather brilliant position of being the party of government and the party of protest at the same time, a paradox that seems to have been greatly aided by loosing the referendum.