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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After yesterday’s dramatic Scottish polls LAB braces itself
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After yesterday’s dramatic Scottish polls LAB braces itself for the South Yorks PCC result
The big news this morning should come from South Yorkshire where counting takes place in the Police and Crime Commissioner by-election – the first one to be held since these new elected positions were created two years ago.
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If the Coalition was as keen on saving public money as it says it is, it would have created Deputies for PCCs and spared the expense of these by-elections.
*cough* West Midlands *cough*
This reminds me of the journalist (I can't remember who, but it was someone fairly senior and experienced who should have known better) who wrote about the first free, fair, multi-party elections happening in Mongolia in 1996 - thereby totally ignoring the ones which happened in 1990 and 1992. Presumably they didn't count as "free and fair" because the Communists won.
In this case, the very existence of the West Midlands by-election two months ago has presumably been cancelled because UKIP didn't win it.
He might want to show his face in Doncaster North a little more..
Can't see anybody else wanting to dip their hands in the blood so Lab would cop all the blame for mega cuts to come. Don't think MiliLab can survive that..
However, some trends do seem to be emerging.
1. I cannot see the official opposition Labour party winning the General Election from this position. They could do it, but they will need such a turnaround and they really ought to be on 40% (remember those days?): I just cannot see it happening. Their position in Scotland is cataclysmic. They cannot afford to haemorrhage support in their heartland like this.
2. Conversely I 'can' see the Conservatives winning, and not just because I am one. They are slowly crawling into a position that could see them, as Governing party, taking a solid enough lead next spring to win outright. This was apparently unthinkable and "pure fantasy" (Mike Smithson) just a year ago. Even three weeks ago TSE posted that their hopes were "all but extinguished."
3. UKIP remain the great unknown. Whatever their tub-thumpers on here say national polling simply does not support the hype. At the moment they would be very fortunate to win a handful of seats. So unless they gain massive long-term traction from Rochester, that is sustained when politics gets serious next year, they will not be a major force in terms of Westminster seats.
4. Ed is crap.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stormbreaker_(film)
Budget: $40 million
Box office: $24 million
With figures like that, there is no way they were going to make another film, whatever Pettyfer's delights may or may not have be.
"A UKIP defeat could just take the edge off the party’s progress."
I really don't see UKIP losing the SY PPC election denting its progress. The role is important, but as turnout shows, barely registers with voters. Also, UKIP looks likely to have massively increased its vote, which will gild the loss.
(It's hard to imagine though, isn't it?
"Actually, I don't really do spirits. And - oh my God - there's a weapon in the library! Justine! Justine? How did this gun get in the library? Didn't we agree the children were to be brought up in an atmosphere free from any references to the military-industrial complex?" What do you mean "Ed Balls brought it round"? Why?"....)
DC at +23 (+19)
EdM supported by 53% OF LAB VI and by 39% of LAB 2010 VI.
3.6
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29844612 .... Victims' groups are expected to tell child abuse inquiry officials Fiona Woolf should step down as its head.
Only just caught up with this tale of the fall of Lamont - as the comments point out, a bit of special pleading in the article over Ed and the "bedroom tax"....
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/10/fall-reluctant-leader-inside-story-scottish-labours-crisis
What I'm particularly interested in is whether UKIP can force this to the second round and, if so, how the second-preference votes are distributed.
Sadly!
http://news.sky.com/story/1363874/labour-facing-election-wipe-out-in-scotland
Will there be a defenestration of Ed M before the year is out, or will he be knifed once the results come in in May?
If the Nats take all those seats off Labour, there is one hell of a boil to lance in Scotland for Westminster.
I’m never going to vote Tory, I don’t see that the LD’s have a chance ..... and anyway they’ve never done well in this constituency, although there’s an LD MP nearby ........ Green’s a possibility of course.
UKIP? If Labour are solving the problems of the late 20th Century, UKP would take us back to the mid 20th.
Just announced UK will repay part of remaining #WW1 debt. Lower interest rates on new debt thanks to credibility of #LongTermEconomicPlan
Begs question long term economic plan, especially if things kick off in Middle East.
George OsborneVerified account
@George_Osborne
We'll redeem £218m of 4% Consols, including debts incurred because of South Sea Bubble. Another financial crisis we're clearing up after...
The odd thing about politics at the moment is that despite deep general dissatisfaction with the main parties, some big decisions are on the horizon.
You simply have to vote.
The difficulty Labour today faces is that they feel (and certainly many on the left such as the unions fervently believe) they should somehow hark back to a pre-Thatcher leftist idyll which, of course, we know not only didn't exist but which the public would probably not care for any more, if they ever did.
Which would be fine. It is at least a position and EdM has flirted with it - price controls, redistributions, and so forth. Thing is, they are living in a different world. Not quite the end of history but certainly there is no going back to some of the soundbites that EdM has generated recently. So they do it all by halves.
The country has a strong centre left voice today - David Cameron. Because he too has been buffeted away from the right (and takes the same amount of stick from rightists) and has alighted on the centre left platform.
The critical issue is that Dave is trying to face down his party and bring them to the centre and we all know that struggle. EdM, meanwhile, because he also is already on the centre left but has somehow to differentiate himself from the Cons, is not as sure of what he is trying to do - I for one couldn't describe his policy. And it's this lack of focus that is killing him.
" I really do hope Labour win the South Yorkshire Police Commissioner by-election.
If Labour lose it, then they might ditch Ed. "
As I said on Monday, and as IIRC OGH said in his header piece, a lot of Establishment Tories want Labour to win in South Yorkshire.
Now they may have good reasons for so doing, or at least what seem good reasons to them. That might be a fear of EdM being removed or a visceral hatred of UKIP and/or the wwc.
But the human consequences of Labour keeping control of South Yorkshire policing are not difficult to imagine.
Understand some of your concerns. Would prefer to see folks like Nick Palmer back in Westminster and making decisions.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/West_Midlands_Police_and_Crime_Commissioner_by-election,_2014
From two threads ago: to clarify, Mr. Scout, I was just leaving the site for the night, I didn't actually go to bed at 8pm
Just glanced at the figures on the last thread. Months to go yet, but right now it's not great for Miliband.
Mr. Palmer, just to correct you: it's not 9% of Yorkshire's electorate, unless turnout is damned high, because most Yorkshiremen won't be voting.
2. Yes they can, but 5-1 is a fair reflection of their chance for a majority.
3. UKIP are favourites in Thurrock, Thanet South, Clacton and Boston. They will win all those seats. I'[d expect them to pick up 6 more at least.
4. Yes, but they'd do no good to knife him now.
Governments have been redeeming war debts every year since they took them out, just as they redeem other bonds when they become due.
Its the net new borrowing that's the relevant value and that's going to be over £100bn this year, over £60bn more than Osborne said it would be,
Has Osborne tweeted about that ?
I'm sure Mike would prefer that you didn't say that you and he agreed.
Gordon Brown wrecked UK finances. No way should his sidekick Balls be given the keys to the Treasury.
You are very right and the coalition has prevented the required harder cuts and efficiency measures from being implemented in 2010 (as was done in Ireland). We now have firemen going on strike over pensions, but the level of many of the public sector pensions are unaffordable - does not matter who is in power. Perhaps no pension should be more than £20k (including the OAP).
@SO: re voting or not voting.
I have a LD MP - nice chap, quite good in the constituency but not a deep or long term thinker. His main opposition is PC who are absolutely hopeless and would waste even more money on the Welsh language and have policies more suitable for the time of WW1.
So I may vote LD to keep the PC out or I may vote for one of the smaller parties here, but do not see LAB being removed as they have too many followers on excessive benefits.
England:
http://tomlalor.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/UKIP-1400-Reasons.jpg
It will be performance on health or education in Wales.
If our problems were really due to Labour, why is it that other European countries have similar - or worse - ones?
Having said that, I'm still surprised at only 10% for the SCUP - even if two polls give that figure-ish. LIke others, I'd expect 15-20%. Which raises the question, will we see a Tory/Labour crossover in Scotland?
That from the notoriously pro-Conservative tweeter, um, Wings Over Scotland.
https://twitter.com/WingsScotland/status/528099011153387520
Begs quite a few questions about cost of debt servicing, level of UK external debt, and how confident bond holders are re repayments. The commitment to low interest rates is 'interesting', likewise the theme of fiscal honesty.
I don't suppose Osborne ever tweeted about removing that 'temporary' income tax from Pitt's time.
It was this, for no corresponding improvement in productivity, which did the damage.
Further, he messed around with the financial services regulatory environment, the so-called tripartite regulation system which many (including, notably, the Cons) identified as being a recipe for disaster at the time.
IMO GB didn't do a dreadful job in 2008 - certainly no different from any other CoE would have done I mean you couldn't have a high street bank going t**ts up.
It was the journey there where he messed up.
A farm near me is desperate for more workers and even provides a car for the farming hours, but all the local unemployed have turned down the jobs because they do not want to start milking at 5am. The only people who are willing to do it are European immigrants.
So please elaborate on your point of "taking it out on the poor and disadvantaged."
1) We were outside the Euro.
2) Our economy, by luck or good planning, was structured in a way that was better able to handle the shock.
Not that it was easy, or will be easy going forwards.
With current polling and mood music (and utter Labour irrelevance in the last 2 to 3 weeks - something I hadn't banked on) I'm moving across to the @SouthamObserver school of dark pessimism and expecting the worst of all possible outcomes in all possible worlds!
Not just today, but for GE2015.
I'm announcing that from today I will be dropping my anti- Dan Hodges jibes. I've a growing feeling Dan is going to be more accurate about May's outcome than I've been for four years!
I don't know where to go. I can't see myself voting next year. I certainly do not want this Labour party in power. It would put back the cause of the centre left in the UK by decades.
My current justification is that I would like to see the back of the current local MP; UKIP-lite and unsympathetic to people with real problems as a result of Government policy.
And therein lies your mistake. People have real problems that are simply not solveable by any government - times are hard and the cash ain't there. The UK is suffering much less than many in, eg, southern Europe but no-one wants to hear it. We have nurses going on strike because some of them will not get a 1% rise on top of a 3% annual increment while in the real world Monarch employees have opted for a big pay cut and some redundancies to save the business for the rest. None of the choices are easy and there will always be 'victims' who hog the headlines but the alternative to the hard medicine now is continual and steady decline.
This idea that public service is all milk and honey is utter BS. As one, I can honestly state that my salary has increased by 1% in the last 4 years. That's not every year, but all the last 4. And we don't have any incremental increases at all. Ergo in real terms my pay has dropped by somewhere around 10-15%. When we see management joining the workers in taking big pay cuts, I'll suck it up. But they don't. What we're seeing is a gradual return to the social divisions of the Victorian era. And ultimately that won't wash in a democracy.
Average pay is now much higher in the public sector than the private sector. In both teaching and nursing increments have continued while annual pay rates have been frozen. I believe in many other European countries public sector pay was cut by between 10 and 20% so your claims about hardship are somewhat spurious. You are also ignoring the huge personal allowance cuts the freeze on council tax which have cushioned the blow. As a former teacher I understand the demands of the job but I also know the realities of the rewards. I fully accept that senior management in both the public and private sectors are generally overpaid and in the former somewhat underworked in my experience. However, if you taxed them all till the proverbial pips squeaked it would barely skim the surface of our debt problems as you well know.
Ebola is nowhere near under control, yet.
"Can't remember the last time Ed had some good News."
When David took up charity work.......
Unfortunately what is dawning on even the faithful is that he really doesn't know what leading a party involves. I can't remember an occasion when I've felt he was obviously on the right side of an argument and leading the charge...
Something which even Nick Clegg has managed (for example yesterday on drugs). If the Libs hadn't become Tories rthis would be a golden opportunity for them
Mr Felix’ comment about “millions of new jobs” doesn’t take into account that that headline figure obscures the fact that too many of these jobs are low-wage or zero-hours contracts, or, worse, both. It is to be hoped that the Government will do something about ZHC’s but time is running out before the election.
Mr Financier, that raises an interesting question for our Kipper friends. How are they going to square that circle? Clearly the current policy of insisting that claimants have a good reason for turning down jobs isn’t working, in your locality at least. Why not?