Paul Waugh @paulwaugh 2m2 minutes ago New Survation poll (for Unite) in Rochester & Strood finds local NHS (37%) more imp issue for voters than immigration (25%)
Labour should walk it then ?
They'll have to get there first, from wherever they're hiding in the North, Rochester being a constituency in which they've given up.
To be fair to Miliband, I think Labour would be in this position whoever led them.
The industrial scale abuse that, has been apparently played down because it didn't suit their multicultural agenda, has broken the back of their historic WWC core.
What we have seen is the end of the illusion that most people in the UK are "progressive", an illusion cleverly constructed by ensuring that the three main parties were dominated by "progressives". That monopoly is now broken.
I didn't believe it was possible to go on holiday aboard or afford a 60" Sony TV or live on delivered pizza - and then I met a load of those who are entitled to ESA [on long term sick], who also qualify for Personal Independence Payments with marginal disabilities. DWP give them £185 every two weeks and another £400 a month.
And they pay no rent or council tax - £800 net a month to blow on utilities and shopping. No wonder some are very reluctant to change their lifestyle.
I’m replying to a couple of eaerlier comments; sadly to reply direcdtly takes the post over the word limit. Mr Felix’ comment about “millions of new jobs” doesn’t take into account that that headline figure obscures the fact that too many of these jobs are low-wage or zero-hours contracts, or, worse, both. It is to be hoped that the Government will do something about ZHC’s but time is running out before the election.
Mr Financier, that raises an interesting question for our Kipper friends. How are they going to square that circle? Clearly the current policy of insisting that claimants have a good reason for turning down jobs isn’t working, in your locality at least. Why not?
You ask a good question, but in the same office building there is an organisation that is supposed to get the unemployed into jobs. Met the manager the other day in the communal kitchen and she explained it to me.
This organisation has a contract from the DWP to get people trained and employed. So all people signing on at the job centre are sent to them. They have been successful with the low hangng fruit and are now left mainly with people who were wrongly classified as 'disabled' in the 2000s and have few skill sets and a very imperfect education.
Many of these people are now unfit and some are clinically obese. They all are very angry about being removed from disability but are not in any way disabled, and do not see why they should take work that involves unusual hours and work to which they have to travel, and even more do not want to work and wish to remain on their benefits as these give them a reasonable lifestyle - good enough for them to spend off-peak holidays in the Canaries during the winter etc. Some resent even help with their CVs as they do not see the need for one and the manager has nearly been physically assaulted by some of these 'clients' when she insisted.
Apparently, if they attend some courses, then they allowed more time to find a job and she/they are not allowed to refer to anything personal (e.g. obesity) in order to help them get a job. So they are sent back to the job centre who gets them re-assessed and the cycle begins again - prevarication at its best.
Too much doom and gloom from my fellow progressives. It's not as if the Tories are popular - far from it.
Yes, at this moment in time, things aren't looking rosy, BUT there are still SIX months before the GE. No doubt Ed is a drag on the Labour brand - if Lab had a half decent leader we would be heading comfortably towards a Labour Government.
No-one has a clue what will happen at the GE - all conventional models, methodology and thinking are broken in a 5 party system.
Having said that the MEF (Murali Election Forecast) will be out in the next few days...
Labour progressive? So far Ed's succeeded in freezing higher energy prices, and announced London style bus passes for the rest of the country. And err, that's pretty much it.
"If he were to become prime minister, Mr Miliband says he will chair regular meetings of a new English Regional Cabinet Committee, to be attended by relevant secretaries of state and city and county leaders."
So no actual democratic control for the English then?
Like his father, Ed Miliband has complete contempt for this country. He wants to transplant the culture with ongoing mass immigration, racially discriminate against the majority, prevent any form of self-rule, and sell us out to a European superstate.
Has Ed Miliband ordered a party inquiry into his councillors' actions in Rotherham yet? Or can we add "not believing a national response Pakistani men raping thousands of white kids is needed" to the list of ways he hates the white English working class...
Come to think of it has he denied keeping white English working class people chained in his cellar and whipping them every night?
Mr. Rob, very hard for Miliband to do that now, for psychological reasons if nothing else.
He effectively ended his brother's political career, after reportedly advising him against following Purnell and bringing down Brown. To do that and then not even contest the prize would not feel good.
If he went, there are two possibilities, Labour lose, or they win. If they lose, he would think to himself that resigning didn't achieve anything. If they won, he'd forever wonder if cowardice and resignation stopped him becoming PM.
David Miliband ended his own political career. Just what do people see in him still I don't know ! Not saying Ed is any good, but the vision of David Miliband as some sort of latter day messiah amongst the Blairite hacks is laughable.
I'm not a David Miliband enthusiast either, he didn't have the guts to challenge Brown, then lost fair and square to his brother and went off to America to sulk.
In my opinion only Yvette Cooper or Sadiq Khan could unite the party if Ed stepped down.
Sadiq Khan is going to be Mayor of London (Hopefully...)
I think Jim Murphy would actually be the right man for the main job, but he'll probably get the Scottish gig..
My money is down on Andy Burnham as per Henry Manson's tipping.
I like Burnham also, although a lot of the PB chat seems to flag up Staffordshire NHS everytime his name is mentioned, so I'm not sure how much of an albatross that would be?
Agree on Murphy too, could kill 2 birds by becoming UK leader and easing issues in Scotland at the same time?
If Findlay gets the Scottish gig off the back off union votes only then I think it leaves him in a very strong position going forward.
He is also likely to hold his seat at the GE even in the face of SNPgeddon.
What % of the SLAB MPs and SLAB MSPs are funded by a Union. We have the Unions influencing 3 big groups in this internal election.
Isam - the problem must be with the long term sick seeking work is that there is no way back if there is a failure - so naturally people can't afford to try. I would prefer the State to turn a blind eye to a few hours work a week to give people a chance to get started. I remember hearing of a BBC program that outed a woman for working an evening in a fish and chip shop. I can't think of anything more counter productive...
Turning the HoL into an English parliament based on STV would be my personal preferred option.
My own solution was more drastic, but I could live with yours.
I think that is an excellent solution. Abolish the HoL and have the English MPs sit in that Chamber as an English Parliament when dealing with English only matters. It avoids another plethora of politicians, it reflects the reality that the UK Parliament spends most of its days dealing with English only business anyway, it allows for the possibility that "the government" might be different in the two houses but at least 90% of the time it would not be and it gets rid of the embarrassment that is the HoL.
To be fair to Miliband, I think Labour would be in this position whoever led them.
The industrial scale abuse that, has been apparently played down because it didn't suit their multicultural agenda, has broken the back of their historic WWC core.
What we have seen is the end of the illusion that most people in the UK are "progressive", an illusion cleverly constructed by ensuring that the three main parties were dominated by "progressives". That monopoly is now broken.
The idea of even a progressive majority - if such a nebulous thing can be pinned down - is just as bad, as it gives the leading edge of progressive opinion the feeling that they have a mandate to implement their ideas.
UKIP grabbing votes from Labour, thus ruining the "vote Nigel, get Ed" line.
The number of Labour 2010 voters telling Populus they will now vote for UKIP is almost unchanged compared to the previous poll. The changes in the current-vote/past-vote matrix are considerably more complicated than the changes in the headline figures.
Paul Waugh @paulwaugh 2m2 minutes ago New Survation poll (for Unite) in Rochester & Strood finds local NHS (37%) more imp issue for voters than immigration (25%)
Labour should walk it then ?
They'll have to get there first, from wherever they're hiding in the North, Rochester being a constituency in which they've given up.
They're hiding in Bobajob's back garden.
In the Last Boy Scouts tent.
Did you see that "they" were talking to "each other" last night?
It's amazing how though Labour is in a bad position, pretty much none of the damage has come from the Conservatives.
Bradford West - Galloway Rahman - Tower Hamlets Scotland - SNP South Yorkshire - UKIP European elections - UKIP Heywood & Middleton - UKIP
You can argue that alot of those are isolated incidents and "exceptional circumstances" but they're adding up to a bigger picture of Labour failure.
Favourable electoral geography is the only element keeping Labour in the game right now, and for that Ed Miliband must thank his biggest help and friend in this parliament, Nick Clegg.
The idea of even a progressive majority - if such a nebulous thing can be pinned down - is just as bad, as it gives the leading edge of progressive opinion the feeling that they have a mandate to implement their ideas.
Worth reading the first of your links if only for the joke at the bottom:
“I was going to tell a joke about sodium, but then I thought, ‘Na’.”
I'm a realist when it comes to people and work after spending six years in recruitment agencies, covering the boom of the late 80s and horror of the early 90s recession.
We nose out the genuine from the slacker/liar in seconds. It's a brutal business that treats people as fee-fodder be it either on First Day In New Job or by the hour. But it does give me a very specific perspective on this issue. It will be the bane of the life of a recruiter to get AN Other ESA claimant signing up if they've no intention of working.
It harms an agency's brand and cred if they can't supply the right person at the right time. DNTU [did not turn up] is the most lethal verdict on a candidate's record.
I’m replying to a couple of eaerlier comments; sadly to reply direcdtly takes the post over the word limit. Mr Felix’ comment about “millions of new jobs” doesn’t take into account that that headline figure obscures the fact that too many of these jobs are low-wage or zero-hours contracts, or, worse, both. It is to be hoped that the Government will do something about ZHC’s but time is running out before the election.
Mr Financier, that raises an interesting question for our Kipper friends. How are they going to square that circle? Clearly the current policy of insisting that claimants have a good reason for turning down jobs isn’t working, in your locality at least. Why not?
There is a simple (ish) solution the problem of our unemployed refusing jobs to stay on the dole while Eastern Europeans fall over themselves for the work
After a certain time on the dole (3 months?) a person is required to take any unskilled job on offer in the job centre.. for 3 days a week. In the areas concerned I would think picking crops on a farm would be such a job.
This gets them 24 hours money a week (over £150) which wont be taxable so they keep the lot, gets them used to working, is better for them socially as they will be interacting with other people, and also gives them 4 other days a week to be looking for the job they actually want or are trained to do.
I would still pay them half of their JSA, but if they didn't do the job they would be getting their JSA halved
For every two such people, a job is filled (they would effectively job share), and the state pays one less person JSA
'Low paid jobs are unskilled ones because we have people either too stupid or too lazy to get higher paying ones. It was always thus.' Oh dear.
That's not really the case though is it?
There are over 5m jobs that are very low paid, now no matter how hard the entire population works the economy is set up as such that there will be millions of people doing really poorly paid jobs no matter how hard they work.
Those cleaning jobs, those retail jobs will continue to pay very low wages no matter how hard those in the jobs work and someone has to do those millions of lowly paid jobs.
I’m replying to a couple of eaerlier comments; sadly to reply direcdtly takes the post over the word limit. Mr Felix’ comment about “millions of new jobs” doesn’t take into account that that headline figure obscures the fact that too many of these jobs are low-wage or zero-hours contracts, or, worse, both. It is to be hoped that the Government will do something about ZHC’s but time is running out before the election.
Mr Financier, that raises an interesting question for our Kipper friends. How are they going to square that circle? Clearly the current policy of insisting that claimants have a good reason for turning down jobs isn’t working, in your locality at least. Why not?
Plato seems to me to be somewhat misanthropic. Last night he declared he liked to blow raspberries in the face of people who don't share his misanthropic humour. Today he says the poor are thick. I can only presume he is rich and employed in a wonderfully well paid job, and deserves every penny. What job do you have Plato?
When I last worked in Norfolk there were 30 000 Portuguese employed by Bernard Matthew plucking turkeys and picking veg for other farmers.
And then there were lots of local unemployed who didn't fancy it.-
GLA was 2004. I’m talking about around about 2001 or so. Probably the reason there was a Portugese speaking copper around in 2007. I know at least one CAB in EA recruited a Portugese speaking adviser around 2000-1. Morecambe Bay was 2004.
Turnout in Doncaster for SYPCCBE: 15.24%, which is ballpark for the original PCC elections.
Donny should return quite a high score for UKIP on first preferences and even higher on seconds, if the ED vote there holds up (which is far from guaranteed but if it doesn't, it'll pre-transfer to UKIP in all likelihood).
I’m replying to a couple of eaerlier comments; sadly to reply direcdtly takes the post over the word limit. Mr Felix’ comment about “millions of new jobs” doesn’t take into account that that headline figure obscures the fact that too many of these jobs are low-wage or zero-hours contracts, or, worse, both. It is to be hoped that the Government will do something about ZHC’s but time is running out before the election.
Mr Financier, that raises an interesting question for our Kipper friends. How are they going to square that circle? Clearly the current policy of insisting that claimants have a good reason for turning down jobs isn’t working, in your locality at least. Why not?
Plato seems to me to be somewhat misanthropic. Last night he declared he liked to blow raspberries in the face of people who don't share his misanthropic humour. Today he says the poor are thick. I can only presume he is rich and employed in a wonderfully well paid job, and deserves every penny. What job do you have Plato?
I assume someone linked to it on Wednesday (when it appeared), but I've just got round to reading Hopi's piece on Labour's fatal fallacies. He really is a very good and thoughtful writer, and Labour High Command would do well to take what he says very seriously indeed. One of the fallacies is the "progressive consensus" which Rentoul [more] recently commented on.
Isam - the problem must be with the long term sick seeking work is that there is no way back if there is a failure - so naturally people can't afford to try. I would prefer the State to turn a blind eye to a few hours work a week to give people a chance to get started. I remember hearing of a BBC program that outed a woman for working an evening in a fish and chip shop. I can't think of anything more counter productive...
In Germany they do not punish claimants for such micro jobs; which they see as a way of restoring the work ethic.
There is much we could learn from in the EU, as well as a few things that they should copy from us.
I’m replying to a couple of eaerlier comments; sadly to reply direcdtly takes the post over the word limit. Mr Felix’ comment about “millions of new jobs” doesn’t take into account that that headline figure obscures the fact that too many of these jobs are low-wage or zero-hours contracts, or, worse, both. It is to be hoped that the Government will do something about ZHC’s but time is running out before the election.
Mr Financier, that raises an interesting question for our Kipper friends. How are they going to square that circle? Clearly the current policy of insisting that claimants have a good reason for turning down jobs isn’t working, in your locality at least. Why not?
Plato seems to me to be somewhat misanthropic. Last night he declared he liked to blow raspberries in the face of people who don't share his misanthropic humour. Today he says the poor are thick. I can only presume he is rich and employed in a wonderfully well paid job, and deserves every penny. What job do you have Plato?
Was that statement saying the poor are thick, or the thick are poor?
Mr. Rob, very hard for Miliband to do that now, for psychological reasons if nothing else.
He effectively ended his brother's political career, after reportedly advising him against following Purnell and bringing down Brown. To do that and then not even contest the prize would not feel good.
If he went, there are two possibilities, Labour lose, or they win. If they lose, he would think to himself that resigning didn't achieve anything. If they won, he'd forever wonder if cowardice and resignation stopped him becoming PM.
David Miliband ended his own political career. Just what do people see in him still I don't know ! Not saying Ed is any good, but the vision of David Miliband as some sort of latter day messiah amongst the Blairite hacks is laughable.
I'm not a David Miliband enthusiast either, he didn't have the guts to challenge Brown, then lost fair and square to his brother and went off to America to sulk.
In my opinion only Yvette Cooper or Sadiq Khan could unite the party if Ed stepped down.
I'd be thrilled with either of those. In both cases you can see the malice in their eyes, but Khan adds to this with his oily and supercilious manner even though he has nothing to be supercilious about.
It's amazing how though Labour is in a bad position, pretty much none of the damage has come from the Conservatives.
Bradford West - Galloway Rahman - Tower Hamlets Scotland - SNP South Yorkshire - UKIP European elections - UKIP Heywood & Middleton - UKIP
You can argue that alot of those are isolated incidents and "exceptional circumstances" but they're adding up to a bigger picture of Labour failure.
Favourable electoral geography is the only element keeping Labour in the game right now, and for that Ed Miliband must thank his biggest help and friend in this parliament, Nick Clegg.
I guess this fits the pattern of first-term oppositions. It was the SDP that looked threatening to Thatcher not Foot, and the LibDems made inroads against Blair where Hague was flat-lining.
It's amazing how though Labour is in a bad position, pretty much none of the damage has come from the Conservatives.
Bradford West - Galloway Rahman - Tower Hamlets Scotland - SNP South Yorkshire - UKIP European elections - UKIP Heywood & Middleton - UKIP
You can argue that alot of those are isolated incidents and "exceptional circumstances" but they're adding up to a bigger picture of Labour failure.
Favourable electoral geography is the only element keeping Labour in the game right now, and for that Ed Miliband must thank his biggest help and friend in this parliament, Nick Clegg.
Newsnight on Tuesday described Tories rejoicing at Labours downfall as like a man celebrating winning a fight with someone who he had just fallen off a cliff with
Paul Waugh @paulwaugh 2m2 minutes ago New Survation poll (for Unite) in Rochester & Strood finds local NHS (37%) more imp issue for voters than immigration (25%)
Labour should walk it then ?
They'll have to get there first, from wherever they're hiding in the North, Rochester being a constituency in which they've given up.
They're hiding in Bobajob's back garden.
In the Last Boy Scouts tent.
Did you see that "they" were talking to "each other" last night?
It's amazing how though Labour is in a bad position, pretty much none of the damage has come from the Conservatives.
Bradford West - Galloway Rahman - Tower Hamlets Scotland - SNP South Yorkshire - UKIP European elections - UKIP Heywood & Middleton - UKIP
You can argue that alot of those are isolated incidents and "exceptional circumstances" but they're adding up to a bigger picture of Labour failure.
Favourable electoral geography is the only element keeping Labour in the game right now, and for that Ed Miliband must thank his biggest help and friend in this parliament, Nick Clegg.
Newsnight on Tuesday described Tories rejoicing at Labours downfall as like a man celebrating winning a fight with someone who he had just fallen off a cliff with
When plummeting to the ground, you take what solace you can.
Paul Waugh @paulwaugh 2m2 minutes ago New Survation poll (for Unite) in Rochester & Strood finds local NHS (37%) more imp issue for voters than immigration (25%)
Labour should walk it then ?
They'll have to get there first, from wherever they're hiding in the North, Rochester being a constituency in which they've given up.
They're hiding in Bobajob's back garden.
In the Last Boy Scouts tent.
Did you see that "they" were talking to "each other" last night?
It's amazing how though Labour is in a bad position, pretty much none of the damage has come from the Conservatives.
Bradford West - Galloway Rahman - Tower Hamlets Scotland - SNP South Yorkshire - UKIP European elections - UKIP Heywood & Middleton - UKIP
You can argue that alot of those are isolated incidents and "exceptional circumstances" but they're adding up to a bigger picture of Labour failure.
Favourable electoral geography is the only element keeping Labour in the game right now, and for that Ed Miliband must thank his biggest help and friend in this parliament, Nick Clegg.
I guess this fits the pattern of first-term oppositions. It was the SDP that looked threatening to Thatcher not Foot, and the LibDems made inroads against Blair where Hague was flat-lining.
One of the reasons the LibDems made inroads against Blair was that, particularly in the case of Iraq, they opposed getting into a fight on a false propectus.
Turning the HoL into an English parliament based on STV would be my personal preferred option.
My own solution was more drastic, but I could live with yours.
I think that is an excellent solution. Abolish the HoL and have the English MPs sit in that Chamber as an English Parliament when dealing with English only matters. It avoids another plethora of politicians, it reflects the reality that the UK Parliament spends most of its days dealing with English only business anyway, it allows for the possibility that "the government" might be different in the two houses but at least 90% of the time it would not be and it gets rid of the embarrassment that is the HoL.
I really like it.
That would mean no check on the House of Commons, which would be a big mistake. I'm not a fan of unicameralism, especially when the chamber is already so controlled by the executive. Let's just have another English parliament. Heck, put it in Birmingham so we at least have one set of politicians outside the London bubble.
Paul Waugh @paulwaugh 2m2 minutes ago New Survation poll (for Unite) in Rochester & Strood finds local NHS (37%) more imp issue for voters than immigration (25%)
Labour should walk it then ?
They'll have to get there first, from wherever they're hiding in the North, Rochester being a constituency in which they've given up.
They're hiding in Bobajob's back garden.
In the Last Boy Scouts tent.
Did you see that "they" were talking to "each other" last night?
It's amazing how though Labour is in a bad position, pretty much none of the damage has come from the Conservatives.
Bradford West - Galloway Rahman - Tower Hamlets Scotland - SNP South Yorkshire - UKIP European elections - UKIP Heywood & Middleton - UKIP
You can argue that alot of those are isolated incidents and "exceptional circumstances" but they're adding up to a bigger picture of Labour failure.
Favourable electoral geography is the only element keeping Labour in the game right now, and for that Ed Miliband must thank his biggest help and friend in this parliament, Nick Clegg.
Newsnight on Tuesday described Tories rejoicing at Labours downfall as like a man celebrating winning a fight with someone who he had just fallen off a cliff with
That's an amusing mental image and one I whole heartedly agree with.
It's amazing how though Labour is in a bad position, pretty much none of the damage has come from the Conservatives.
Bradford West - Galloway Rahman - Tower Hamlets Scotland - SNP South Yorkshire - UKIP European elections - UKIP Heywood & Middleton - UKIP
You can argue that alot of those are isolated incidents and "exceptional circumstances" but they're adding up to a bigger picture of Labour failure.
Favourable electoral geography is the only element keeping Labour in the game right now, and for that Ed Miliband must thank his biggest help and friend in this parliament, Nick Clegg.
I guess this fits the pattern of first-term oppositions. It was the SDP that looked threatening to Thatcher not Foot, and the LibDems made inroads against Blair where Hague was flat-lining.
The Lib Dems didn't make any real inroads against Blair in his first term, though they continued to make some against the Tories. They did make inroads in his second term, while IDS was Tory leader.
I’m replying to a couple of eaerlier comments; sadly to reply direcdtly takes the post over the word limit. Mr Felix’ comment about “millions of new jobs” doesn’t take into account that that headline figure obscures the fact that too many of these jobs are low-wage or zero-hours contracts, or, worse, both. It is to be hoped that the Government will do something about ZHC’s but time is running out before the election.
Mr Financier, that raises an interesting question for our Kipper friends. How are they going to square that circle? Clearly the current policy of insisting that claimants have a good reason for turning down jobs isn’t working, in your locality at least. Why not?
Plato seems to me to be somewhat misanthropic. Last night he declared he liked to blow raspberries in the face of people who don't share his misanthropic humour. Today he says the poor are thick. I can only presume he is rich and employed in a wonderfully well paid job, and deserves every penny. What job do you have Plato?
Indeed, Mr SO (7.24) but what is the alternative for a “leftie”, or at least someone who is often appalled by the attiude of Tories en masse? I’m never going to vote Tory, I don’t see that the LD’s have a chance ..... and anyway they’ve never done well in this constituency, although there’s an LD MP nearby ........ Green’s a possibility of course.
UKIP? If Labour are solving the problems of the late 20th Century, UKP would take us back to the mid 20th.
I don't know where to go. I can't see myself voting next year. I certainly do not want this Labour party in power. It would put back the cause of the centre left in the UK by decades.
SO think you might seriously regret not voting. Just imagine if we ended up with a small majority Tory govt that at the mercy of its loony right took us out of the EU.
The odd thing about politics at the moment is that despite deep general dissatisfaction with the main parties, some big decisions are on the horizon.
You simply have to vote.
I am sure I will. But I can't vote for Labour. Under Ed and the rest of the current leadership it is not fit to govern.
Good about voting! Sitting on your hands, to let the likes of UKIP wreak havoc surely is unthinkable.
Understand some of your concerns. Would prefer to see folks like Nick Palmer back in Westminster and making decisions.
Wow - are you aware of his record from last time he was an MP?
That did make me laugh too.
I believe he was described as an MP who would eat his own feet if his party asked him to.
Is that really the type of mp (of any party) that we want?
I love the honesty of Alfred P. Doolittle myself. A self-proclaimed member of the Undeserving Poor and upset that he became a wealthy public speaker/what consequences it brought in terms of responsibilities .
I didn't believe it was possible to go on holiday aboard or afford a 60" Sony TV or live on delivered pizza - and then I met a load of those who are entitled to ESA [on long term sick], who also qualify for Personal Independence Payments with marginal disabilities. DWP give them £185 every two weeks and another £400 a month.
And they pay no rent or council tax - £800 net a month to blow on utilities and shopping. No wonder some are very reluctant to change their lifestyle.
I’m replying to a couple of eaerlier comments; sadly to reply direcdtly takes the post over the word limit. Mr Felix’ comment about “millions of new jobs” doesn’t take into account that that headline figure obscures the fact that too many of these jobs are low-wage or zero-hours contracts, or, worse, both. It is to be hoped that the Government will do something about ZHC’s but time is running out before the election.
It's amazing how though Labour is in a bad position, pretty much none of the damage has come from the Conservatives.
Bradford West - Galloway Rahman - Tower Hamlets Scotland - SNP South Yorkshire - UKIP European elections - UKIP Heywood & Middleton - UKIP
You can argue that alot of those are isolated incidents and "exceptional circumstances" but they're adding up to a bigger picture of Labour failure.
Favourable electoral geography is the only element keeping Labour in the game right now, and for that Ed Miliband must thank his biggest help and friend in this parliament, Nick Clegg.
I guess this fits the pattern of first-term oppositions. It was the SDP that looked threatening to Thatcher not Foot, and the LibDems made inroads against Blair where Hague was flat-lining.
Labour were doing fine in the first two and a half years of this term before UKIP became popular. Polling in the forties, sweeping gains in the local elections and taking Corby on a big swing.
I’m replying to a couple of eaerlier comments; sadly to reply direcdtly takes the post over the word limit. Mr Felix’ comment about “millions of new jobs” doesn’t take into account that that headline figure obscures the fact that too many of these jobs are low-wage or zero-hours contracts, or, worse, both. It is to be hoped that the Government will do something about ZHC’s but time is running out before the election.
Mr Financier, that raises an interesting question for our Kipper friends. How are they going to square that circle? Clearly the current policy of insisting that claimants have a good reason for turning down jobs isn’t working, in your locality at least. Why not?
Plato seems to me to be somewhat misanthropic. Last night he declared he liked to blow raspberries in the face of people who don't share his misanthropic humour. Today he says the poor are thick. I can only presume he is rich and employed in a wonderfully well paid job, and deserves every penny. What job do you have Plato?
*she
I think the "misunderstanding" is deliberate here Pulps
Isam - the problem must be with the long term sick seeking work is that there is no way back if there is a failure - so naturally people can't afford to try. I would prefer the State to turn a blind eye to a few hours work a week to give people a chance to get started. I remember hearing of a BBC program that outed a woman for working an evening in a fish and chip shop. I can't think of anything more counter productive...
In Germany they do not punish claimants for such micro jobs; which they see as a way of restoring the work ethic.
There is much we could learn from in the EU, as well as a few things that they should copy from us.
The problem is that if you turn a blind eye to micro jobs, you need to have a line where they turn into macro jobs, and then it's very difficult to find where people are lying about which side of that line.
A much better system is the universal credit system, where you have a gradient. That way they report their earnings without getting punished (much).
Paul Waugh @paulwaugh 2m2 minutes ago New Survation poll (for Unite) in Rochester & Strood finds local NHS (37%) more imp issue for voters than immigration (25%)
Labour should walk it then ?
They'll have to get there first, from wherever they're hiding in the North, Rochester being a constituency in which they've given up.
They're hiding in Bobajob's back garden.
In the Last Boy Scouts tent.
Did you see that "they" were talking to "each other" last night?
It's amazing how though Labour is in a bad position, pretty much none of the damage has come from the Conservatives.
Bradford West - Galloway Rahman - Tower Hamlets Scotland - SNP South Yorkshire - UKIP European elections - UKIP Heywood & Middleton - UKIP
You can argue that alot of those are isolated incidents and "exceptional circumstances" but they're adding up to a bigger picture of Labour failure.
Favourable electoral geography is the only element keeping Labour in the game right now, and for that Ed Miliband must thank his biggest help and friend in this parliament, Nick Clegg.
Newsnight on Tuesday described Tories rejoicing at Labours downfall as like a man celebrating winning a fight with someone who he had just fallen off a cliff with
When plummeting to the ground, you take what solace you can.
And make sure your fellow faller is beneath you when you hit the ground.
It's amazing how though Labour is in a bad position, pretty much none of the damage has come from the Conservatives.
Bradford West - Galloway Rahman - Tower Hamlets Scotland - SNP South Yorkshire - UKIP European elections - UKIP Heywood & Middleton - UKIP
You can argue that alot of those are isolated incidents and "exceptional circumstances" but they're adding up to a bigger picture of Labour failure.
Favourable electoral geography is the only element keeping Labour in the game right now, and for that Ed Miliband must thank his biggest help and friend in this parliament, Nick Clegg.
I guess this fits the pattern of first-term oppositions. It was the SDP that looked threatening to Thatcher not Foot, and the LibDems made inroads against Blair where Hague was flat-lining.
Yes but its not the Conservatives that are under attack is it? Its the opposition
Labour in this Parliament have strongly resembled the Labour party in the 1951-55 Parliament, where they lost narrowly and firmly expected to be back in power in the near future without having to do very much. They were wrong then and the strategy hasn't looked brilliant up to this point, despite all the electoral advantages that Labour currently possess.
I’m replying to a couple of eaerlier comments; sadly to reply direcdtly takes the post over the word limit. Mr Felix’ comment about “millions of new jobs” doesn’t take into account that that headline figure obscures the fact that too many of these jobs are low-wage or zero-hours contracts, or, worse, both. It is to be hoped that the Government will do something about ZHC’s but time is running out before the election.
Mr Financier, that raises an interesting question for our Kipper friends. How are they going to square that circle? Clearly the current policy of insisting that claimants have a good reason for turning down jobs isn’t working, in your locality at least. Why not?
Plato seems to me to be somewhat misanthropic. Last night he declared he liked to blow raspberries in the face of people who don't share his misanthropic humour. Today he says the poor are thick. I can only presume he is rich and employed in a wonderfully well paid job, and deserves every penny. What job do you have Plato?
*she
Yesterdays comment on something like the temptations of Lesbianism may have been a small clue
Paul Waugh @paulwaugh 2m2 minutes ago New Survation poll (for Unite) in Rochester & Strood finds local NHS (37%) more imp issue for voters than immigration (25%)
Labour should walk it then ?
They'll have to get there first, from wherever they're hiding in the North, Rochester being a constituency in which they've given up.
They're hiding in Bobajob's back garden.
In the Last Boy Scouts tent.
Did you see that "they" were talking to "each other" last night?
It's amazing how though Labour is in a bad position, pretty much none of the damage has come from the Conservatives.
Bradford West - Galloway Rahman - Tower Hamlets Scotland - SNP South Yorkshire - UKIP European elections - UKIP Heywood & Middleton - UKIP
You can argue that alot of those are isolated incidents and "exceptional circumstances" but they're adding up to a bigger picture of Labour failure.
Favourable electoral geography is the only element keeping Labour in the game right now, and for that Ed Miliband must thank his biggest help and friend in this parliament, Nick Clegg.
I guess this fits the pattern of first-term oppositions. It was the SDP that looked threatening to Thatcher not Foot, and the LibDems made inroads against Blair where Hague was flat-lining.
Yes but its not the Conservatives that are under attack is it? Its the opposition
It's both, as with the SDP.
Makes Hague look impressive in hindsight for managing to hold the flat line...
It's amazing how though Labour is in a bad position, pretty much none of the damage has come from the Conservatives.
Bradford West - Galloway Rahman - Tower Hamlets South Yorkshire - UKIP European elections - UKIP Heywood & Middleton - UKIP
You can argue that alot of those are isolated incidents and "exceptional circumstances" but they're adding up to a bigger picture of Labour failure.
Those 5 all have the same underlying issues - immigration/Islam/Muslims.
When Maureen Lipman starts up about Ed Miliband and Palestine, it's the same thing rearing up.
The English Labour Party could either end up taking the Respect route- and alienating the English wwc - or the UKIP route - and alienating it's staunchest ethnic vote.
For the time being it's fumbling along unsuccessfully trying to accommodate two incompatible bedfellows - British identity/law and Islamic identity/belief.
Scotland and Wales have far lower levels of population diversity, and therefore think and behave differently to the English, so the same issues don't surface.
They will though if Salmond ever slings open Scotland's borders at the same time as England shuts them.
Oh dear. I'm female. I know I sound like a bloke - even my husband said I was a man in woman's body.
I'm actually a misanthrope - I don't like people much. It's the exceptions that prove this rule.
And I've earned a lot and lived on cold leftovers. I find this experience character building. It doesn't change my view that people are people, not saints.
I’m replying to a couple of eaerlier comments; sadly to reply direcdtly takes the post over the word limit. Mr Felix’ comment about “millions of new jobs” doesn’t take into account that that headline figure obscures the fact that too many of these jobs are low-wage or zero-hours contracts, or, worse, both. It is to be hoped that the Government will do something about ZHC’s but time is running out before the election.
Mr Financier, that raises an interesting question for our Kipper friends. How are they going to square that circle? Clearly the current policy of insisting that claimants have a good reason for turning down jobs isn’t working, in your locality at least. Why not?
Plato seems to me to be somewhat misanthropic. Last night he declared he liked to blow raspberries in the face of people who don't share his misanthropic humour. Today he says the poor are thick. I can only presume he is rich and employed in a wonderfully well paid job, and deserves every penny. What job do you have Plato?
I’m replying to a couple of eaerlier comments; sadly to reply direcdtly takes the post over the word limit. Mr Felix’ comment about “millions of new jobs” doesn’t take into account that that headline figure obscures the fact that too many of these jobs are low-wage or zero-hours contracts, or, worse, both. It is to be hoped that the Government will do something about ZHC’s but time is running out before the election.
Mr Financier, that raises an interesting question for our Kipper friends. How are they going to square that circle? Clearly the current policy of insisting that claimants have a good reason for turning down jobs isn’t working, in your locality at least. Why not?
Plato seems to me to be somewhat misanthropic. Last night he declared he liked to blow raspberries in the face of people who don't share his misanthropic humour. Today he says the poor are thick. I can only presume he is rich and employed in a wonderfully well paid job, and deserves every penny. What job do you have Plato?
I'm sure you're really gregarious after a few fish fingers :-)
Paul Waugh @paulwaugh 1m1 minute ago Is this a new record for a polling station turnout? In Doncaster bit of SYorks PCC byelxn just 3.5% voted in person (11.7% were postal vote).
Paul Waugh @paulwaugh 1m1 minute ago Is this a new record for a polling station turnout? In Doncaster bit of SYorks PCC byelxn just 3.5% voted in person (11.7% were postal vote).
I'd have thought that was good for Labour actually.
Paul Waugh @paulwaugh 1m1 minute ago Is this a new record for a polling station turnout? In Doncaster bit of SYorks PCC byelxn just 3.5% voted in person (11.7% were postal vote).
I'd have thought that was good for Labour actually.
Probably. If UKIP have learned how to do postal votes they'll be a force to be reckoned with.
Labour in this Parliament have strongly resembled the Labour party in the 1951-55 Parliament, where they lost narrowly and firmly expected to be back in power in the near future without having to do very much. They were wrong then and the strategy hasn't looked brilliant up to this point, despite all the electoral advantages that Labour currently possess.
Being a tad too young to remember the lead up to 1992 in much detail, I'd be curious to know what the Labour mood was then?
Documentaries seem to portray that they were confident of victory leading up to the '92 election. Is that true or just narrative that's developed since?
Paul Waugh @paulwaugh 1m1 minute ago Is this a new record for a polling station turnout? In Doncaster bit of SYorks PCC byelxn just 3.5% voted in person (11.7% were postal vote).
I'd have thought that was good for Labour actually.
Probably. If UKIP have learned how to do postal votes they'll be a force to be reckoned with.
Do white people have "community leaders" to help fill them in ? Oh yeah - trade unions..
Labour in this Parliament have strongly resembled the Labour party in the 1951-55 Parliament, where they lost narrowly and firmly expected to be back in power in the near future without having to do very much. They were wrong then and the strategy hasn't looked brilliant up to this point, despite all the electoral advantages that Labour currently possess.
Being a tad too young to remember the lead up to 1992 in much detail, I'd be curious to know what the Labour mood was then?
Documentaries seem to portray that they were confident of victory leading up to the '92 election. Is that true or just narrative that's developed since?
Pretty true, but the blowhard Kinnock has tried to downplay his premature celebrations over the years.
Labour in this Parliament have strongly resembled the Labour party in the 1951-55 Parliament, where they lost narrowly and firmly expected to be back in power in the near future without having to do very much. They were wrong then and the strategy hasn't looked brilliant up to this point, despite all the electoral advantages that Labour currently possess.
Being a tad too young to remember the lead up to 1992 in much detail, I'd be curious to know what the Labour mood was then?
Documentaries seem to portray that they were confident of victory leading up to the '92 election. Is that true or just narrative that's developed since?
From what I remember of the campaign (my first serious one as an activist), apart from it being cold, was that no-one had a good idea of what was likely to happen and that both Tories and Labour were hopeful rather than confident.
I’m replying to a couple of eaerlier comments; sadly to reply direcdtly takes the post over the word limit. Mr Felix’ comment about “millions of new jobs” doesn’t take into account that that headline figure obscures the fact that too many of these jobs are low-wage or zero-hours contracts, or, worse, both. It is to be hoped that the Government will do something about ZHC’s but time is running out before the election.
Mr Financier, that raises an interesting question for our Kipper friends. How are they going to square that circle? Clearly the current policy of insisting that claimants have a good reason for turning down jobs isn’t working, in your locality at least. Why not?
Plato seems to me to be somewhat misanthropic. Last night he declared he liked to blow raspberries in the face of people who don't share his misanthropic humour. Today he says the poor are thick. I can only presume he is rich and employed in a wonderfully well paid job, and deserves every penny. What job do you have Plato?
Whilst those around Miliband may continue to blame the party in Scotland for Labour’s woes, the reality is that it is Miliband himself that should be under pressure since what’s happening in Scotland is symptomatic of a much deeper problem.
It wasn’t Scottish Labour that came so close in Heywood and Middleton to UKIP taking a Labour seat. It is not Scottish Labour that is nowhere in Rochester and Strood – despite Labour having held much of the area the seat covers up until 2010.
And before anyone does blame Scottish Labour for its problems north of the border, when it comes to next year’s General Election it is Ed Miliband putting himself forward to be prime minister, not Johann Lamont, Jim Murphy or any other Scottish member of the party, and here Miliband’s ratings are simply abysmal.
Labour in this Parliament have strongly resembled the Labour party in the 1951-55 Parliament, where they lost narrowly and firmly expected to be back in power in the near future without having to do very much. They were wrong then and the strategy hasn't looked brilliant up to this point, despite all the electoral advantages that Labour currently possess.
Being a tad too young to remember the lead up to 1992 in much detail, I'd be curious to know what the Labour mood was then?
Documentaries seem to portray that they were confident of victory leading up to the '92 election. Is that true or just narrative that's developed since?
If the turnout is virtually unchanged from last time, then it means that there have not been hordes of new UKIP voters, enraged by occurrences in SY, going to the polls.
This means the winner will depends on votes moving from Labour to UKIP, amongst the sort of people who will turn out to vote whatever the circumstances. I really can not see enough people of that sort doing it: many will be lifelong die-hard Labour voters.
Second round votes complicate matters, but not enough given Labour got 51% in the first round last time.
So at this point I rather dangerously predict a Labour win on a reduced vote share. If UKIP do manage to win on such a low turnout, then it is absolutely brilliant for them, as it means they've attracted hardcore voters away from the other parties, and especially Labour.
But my history of voting predictions on here isn't the best ... :-)
Labour in this Parliament have strongly resembled the Labour party in the 1951-55 Parliament, where they lost narrowly and firmly expected to be back in power in the near future without having to do very much. They were wrong then and the strategy hasn't looked brilliant up to this point, despite all the electoral advantages that Labour currently possess.
Being a tad too young to remember the lead up to 1992 in much detail, I'd be curious to know what the Labour mood was then?
Documentaries seem to portray that they were confident of victory leading up to the '92 election. Is that true or just narrative that's developed since?
From what I remember of the campaign (my first serious one as an activist), apart from it being cold, was that no-one had a good idea of what was likely to happen and that both Tories and Labour were hopeful rather than confident.
IIRC, and I was less active that GE than previously, Labour weren’t THAT confident until just before that rally. Again IIRC, there was some small discussion of a hung Parliament.
Isam - the problem must be with the long term sick seeking work is that there is no way back if there is a failure - so naturally people can't afford to try. I would prefer the State to turn a blind eye to a few hours work a week to give people a chance to get started. I remember hearing of a BBC program that outed a woman for working an evening in a fish and chip shop. I can't think of anything more counter productive...
Labour in this Parliament have strongly resembled the Labour party in the 1951-55 Parliament, where they lost narrowly and firmly expected to be back in power in the near future without having to do very much. They were wrong then and the strategy hasn't looked brilliant up to this point, despite all the electoral advantages that Labour currently possess.
Being a tad too young to remember the lead up to 1992 in much detail, I'd be curious to know what the Labour mood was then?
Documentaries seem to portray that they were confident of victory leading up to the '92 election. Is that true or just narrative that's developed since?
It is true. On the day of the election there was a quietly hopeful sense that the Tory period was at an end. The crushing feeling of disappointment on the day after was very noticeable to me, even as an 11 year old.
The end of Margaret Thatcher and the retreat over the Poll Tax particularly fed the feeling that Labour's time had come.
UKIP 1/12 on betfair to win R&S, if they do hard to see how Cameron can spin his way out of it.
low turn out and 6 months before a GE - it's a free hit.
Yes - point taken and these are clearly unusual times. However, dramatic govt losses in by-elections are a recurrent theme over the last 50 odd years - especially for the LDs and so far it hasn't given them quite the sustained breakthrough they wanted. UKIP are clearly a dangerous new force and causing mayhem for both the govt and Labour. Not sure how that is going to pan out next May.
Comments
Labour nervously pessimistic and UKIP confident.
The industrial scale abuse that, has been apparently played down because it didn't suit their multicultural agenda, has broken the back of their historic WWC core.
What we have seen is the end of the illusion that most people in the UK are "progressive", an illusion cleverly constructed by ensuring that the three main parties were dominated by "progressives". That monopoly is now broken.
It'll weigh lightly in the scales compared to the polls from Scotland, though.
We had our own Portuguese speaking plod to deal with the mafia issues. And an out-post of the Portuguese Consulate. It was bizarre.
I can only presume that it's become more so as like-recruits-like.
I really like it.
Probably the best feed for updates from South Yorkshire.
"Expecting just about the same turnout for #SYPCC Byelection as in 2012..around 15%- official announcement on turnout expected soon"
I hope so!
We pay for what we get. unless you like Communism and that stifles more than it fixes.
Bradford West - Galloway
Rahman - Tower Hamlets
Scotland - SNP
South Yorkshire - UKIP
European elections - UKIP
Heywood & Middleton - UKIP
You can argue that alot of those are isolated incidents and "exceptional circumstances" but they're adding up to a bigger picture of Labour failure.
Favourable electoral geography is the only element keeping Labour in the game right now, and for that Ed Miliband must thank his biggest help and friend in this parliament, Nick Clegg.
“I was going to tell a joke about sodium, but then I thought, ‘Na’.”
We nose out the genuine from the slacker/liar in seconds. It's a brutal business that treats people as fee-fodder be it either on First Day In New Job or by the hour. But it does give me a very specific perspective on this issue. It will be the bane of the life of a recruiter to get AN Other ESA claimant signing up if they've no intention of working.
It harms an agency's brand and cred if they can't supply the right person at the right time. DNTU [did not turn up] is the most lethal verdict on a candidate's record.
There are over 5m jobs that are very low paid, now no matter how hard the entire population works the economy is set up as such that there will be millions of people doing really poorly paid jobs no matter how hard they work.
Those cleaning jobs, those retail jobs will continue to pay very low wages no matter how hard those in the jobs work and someone has to do those millions of lowly paid jobs.
Donny should return quite a high score for UKIP on first preferences and even higher on seconds, if the ED vote there holds up (which is far from guaranteed but if it doesn't, it'll pre-transfer to UKIP in all likelihood).
http://hopisen.com/2014/three-bad-ideas-that-are-hurting-labour
There is much we could learn from in the EU, as well as a few things that they should copy from us.
I'd be thrilled with either of those. In both cases you can see the malice in their eyes, but Khan adds to this with his oily and supercilious manner even though he has nothing to be supercilious about.
In fact Khan-Umunna would be my dream ticket.
Nooooo??
I believe he was described as an MP who would eat his own feet if his party asked him to.
Is that really the type of mp (of any party) that we want?
.
EDIT Culture reference to My Fair Lady
Would be really helpful for me if anyone knew of someone over there that might be up for some betting related work on the Cricket
A much better system is the universal credit system, where you have a gradient. That way they report their earnings without getting punished (much).
http://www.tdpf.org.uk/blog/drug-decriminalisation-portugal-setting-record-straight
Makes Hague look impressive in hindsight for managing to hold the flat line...
When Maureen Lipman starts up about Ed Miliband and Palestine, it's the same thing rearing up.
The English Labour Party could either end up taking the Respect route- and alienating the English wwc - or the UKIP route - and alienating it's staunchest ethnic vote.
For the time being it's fumbling along unsuccessfully trying to accommodate two incompatible bedfellows - British identity/law and Islamic identity/belief.
Scotland and Wales have far lower levels of population diversity, and therefore think and behave differently to the English, so the same issues don't surface.
They will though if Salmond ever slings open Scotland's borders at the same time as England shuts them.
I'm actually a misanthrope - I don't like people much. It's the exceptions that prove this rule.
And I've earned a lot and lived on cold leftovers. I find this experience character building. It doesn't change my view that people are people, not saints.
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/health/health-experts-somehow-come-up-with-perfectly-reasonable-idea-2014103192330
Is this a new record for a polling station turnout? In Doncaster bit of SYorks PCC byelxn just 3.5% voted in person (11.7% were postal vote).
Racings my thing at this time of year, but there are loads of lazy ex-pat Brits here, living the tax free dream who should be able to help.
Documentaries seem to portray that they were confident of victory leading up to the '92 election. Is that true or just narrative that's developed since?
Two DNV and 1 UKIP vote in my office.
What a fine track that is. And very funny.
Whilst those around Miliband may continue to blame the party in Scotland for Labour’s woes, the reality is that it is Miliband himself that should be under pressure since what’s happening in Scotland is symptomatic of a much deeper problem.
It wasn’t Scottish Labour that came so close in Heywood and Middleton to UKIP taking a Labour seat. It is not Scottish Labour that is nowhere in Rochester and Strood – despite Labour having held much of the area the seat covers up until 2010.
And before anyone does blame Scottish Labour for its problems north of the border, when it comes to next year’s General Election it is Ed Miliband putting himself forward to be prime minister, not Johann Lamont, Jim Murphy or any other Scottish member of the party, and here Miliband’s ratings are simply abysmal.
http://leftfootforward.org/2014/10/whats-is-happening-in-scotland-is-symptomatic-of-a-deeper-problem/
If the turnout is virtually unchanged from last time, then it means that there have not been hordes of new UKIP voters, enraged by occurrences in SY, going to the polls.
This means the winner will depends on votes moving from Labour to UKIP, amongst the sort of people who will turn out to vote whatever the circumstances. I really can not see enough people of that sort doing it: many will be lifelong die-hard Labour voters.
Second round votes complicate matters, but not enough given Labour got 51% in the first round last time.
So at this point I rather dangerously predict a Labour win on a reduced vote share. If UKIP do manage to win on such a low turnout, then it is absolutely brilliant for them, as it means they've attracted hardcore voters away from the other parties, and especially Labour.
But my history of voting predictions on here isn't the best ... :-)
Until that's addressed - we're going nowhere.
http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2014/10/the-labour-battleground-in-october-2014.html
In the coming days I shall be looking in turn at the odds from the Conservatives' perspective, the Lib Dems', the SNP's, UKIP's and the Greens'.
The end of Margaret Thatcher and the retreat over the Poll Tax particularly fed the feeling that Labour's time had come.
From what I recall Plato's been disarmingly honest about her situation in the past.
(For clarity, I'm not working at the moment, at least in a paid capacity, and I'm rather darned happy about it!) ;-)