I’m replying to a couple of eaerlier comments; sadly to reply direcdtly takes the post over the word limit. Mr Felix’ comment about “millions of new jobs” doesn’t take into account that that headline figure obscures the fact that too many of these jobs are low-wage or zero-hours contracts, or, worse, both. It is to be hoped that the Government will do something about ZHC’s but time is running out before the election.
Mr Financier, that raises an interesting question for our Kipper friends. How are they going to square that circle? Clearly the current policy of insisting that claimants have a good reason for turning down jobs isn’t working, in your locality at least. Why not?
Plato seems to me to be somewhat misanthropic. Last night he declared he liked to blow raspberries in the face of people who don't share his misanthropic humour. Today he says the poor are thick. I can only presume he is rich and employed in a wonderfully well paid job, and deserves every penny. What job do you have Plato?
*she
Yesterdays comment on something like the temptations of Lesbianism may have been a small clue
That poster (or some iteration thereof) once fretted no end about my gender - which I guess is a diversion from their tiresome posts about whether people are following their betting tips.....
Carlotta's avatar is actually Marie Dressler in Dinner at Eight!
I’m replying to a couple of eaerlier comments; sadly to reply direcdtly takes the post over the word limit. Mr Felix’ comment about “millions of new jobs” doesn’t take into account that that headline figure obscures the fact that too many of these jobs are low-wage or zero-hours contracts, or, worse, both. It is to be hoped that the Government will do something about ZHC’s but time is running out before the election.
Mr Financier, that raises an interesting question for our Kipper friends. How are they going to square that circle? Clearly the current policy of insisting that claimants have a good reason for turning down jobs isn’t working, in your locality at least. Why not?
Plato seems to me to be somewhat misanthropic. Last night he declared he liked to blow raspberries in the face of people who don't share his misanthropic humour. Today he says the poor are thick. I can only presume he is rich and employed in a wonderfully well paid job, and deserves every penny. What job do you have Plato?
*she
Yesterdays comment on something like the temptations of Lesbianism may have been a small clue
That poster (or some iteration thereof) once fretted no end about my gender - which I guess is a diversion from their tiresome posts about whether people are following their betting tips.....
Carlotta's avatar is actually Marie Dressler in Dinner at Eight!
While the world remembers Gable, Garbo, Crawford, Dietrich, Hepburn and Davis from the 1930s, Dressler was bigger than them all in the first half of the decade - and already dying from cancer when this was shot.....
Paul Waugh @paulwaugh · 1 min1 minute ago Lab source: "Farage sd he was putting his tanks on our lawn. We took Ukip on + won. Let's see if Cameron can do same in Rochester"
As spin lines go, this seems pretty reasonable to me.
It's effectively an invitation to Labour voters to vote UKIP. I'm not sure that's strategically a wise move from Labour's point of view.
The Rotherham subsample is interesting mind - assuming the Lib Dems run a candidate there then UKIP could be in with a shot come next May.
But perhaps 5-2 is about right.
This was an election where you would have thought UKIP voters were relatively highly motivated and Labour voters were not. If they didn't win this time on a lowish turnout, why would UKIP win at a general election?
I’m replying to a couple of eaerlier comments; sadly to reply direcdtly takes the post over the word limit. Mr Felix’ comment about “millions of new jobs” doesn’t take into account that that headline figure obscures the fact that too many of these jobs are low-wage or zero-hours contracts, or, worse, both. It is to be hoped that the Government will do something about ZHC’s but time is running out before the election.
Mr Financier, that raises an interesting question for our Kipper friends. How are they going to square that circle? Clearly the current policy of insisting that claimants have a good reason for turning down jobs isn’t working, in your locality at least. Why not?
Plato seems to me to be somewhat misanthropic. Last night he declared he liked to blow raspberries in the face of people who don't share his misanthropic humour. Today he says the poor are thick. I can only presume he is rich and employed in a wonderfully well paid job, and deserves every penny. What job do you have Plato?
*she
Yesterdays comment on something like the temptations of Lesbianism may have been a small clue
That poster (or some iteration thereof) once fretted no end about my gender - which I guess is a diversion from their tiresome posts about whether people are following their betting tips.....
Carlotta's avatar is actually Marie Dressler in Dinner at Eight!
While the world remembers Gable, Garbo, Crawford, Dietrich, Hepburn and Davis from the 1930s, Dressler was bigger than them all in the first half of the decade - and already dying from cancer when this was shot.....
The Rotherham subsample is interesting mind - assuming the Lib Dems run a candidate there then UKIP could be in with a shot come next May.
But perhaps 5-2 is about right.
This was an election where you would have thought UKIP voters were relatively highly motivated and Labour voters were not. If they didn't win this time on a lowish turnout, why would UKIP win at a general election?
I'd say a large section of Labour inclined voters were exceptionally keen to turnout and prevent anyone else getting in
The Rotherham subsample is interesting mind - assuming the Lib Dems run a candidate there then UKIP could be in with a shot come next May.
But perhaps 5-2 is about right.
This was an election where you would have thought UKIP voters were relatively highly motivated and Labour voters were not. If they didn't win this time on a lowish turnout, why would UKIP win at a general election?
You're probably right - what price are Labour here ?
May I ask, were you so bullish about a Labour victory earlier this week? I only ask because many on here, including me, thought this was to be an easy Ukip win
I’m replying to a couple of eaerlier comments; sadly to reply direcdtly takes the post over the word limit. Mr Felix’ comment about “millions of new jobs” doesn’t take into account that that headline figure obscures the fact that too many of these jobs are low-wage or zero-hours contracts, or, worse, both. It is to be hoped that the Government will do something about ZHC’s but time is running out before the election.
Mr Financier, that raises an interesting question for our Kipper friends. How are they going to square that circle? Clearly the current policy of insisting that claimants have a good reason for turning down jobs isn’t working, in your locality at least. Why not?
Plato seems to me to be somewhat misanthropic. Last night he declared he liked to blow raspberries in the face of people who don't share his misanthropic humour. Today he says the poor are thick. I can only presume he is rich and employed in a wonderfully well paid job, and deserves every penny. What job do you have Plato?
*she
Yesterdays comment on something like the temptations of Lesbianism may have been a small clue
That poster (or some iteration thereof) once fretted no end about my gender - which I guess is a diversion from their tiresome posts about whether people are following their betting tips.....
Carlotta's avatar is actually Marie Dressler in Dinner at Eight!
While the world remembers Gable, Garbo, Crawford, Dietrich, Hepburn and Davis from the 1930s, Dressler was bigger than them all in the first half of the decade - and already dying from cancer when this was shot.....
The Rotherham subsample is interesting mind - assuming the Lib Dems run a candidate there then UKIP could be in with a shot come next May.
But perhaps 5-2 is about right.
This was an election where you would have thought UKIP voters were relatively highly motivated and Labour voters were not. If they didn't win this time on a lowish turnout, why would UKIP win at a general election?
You're probably right - what price are Labour here ?
1/3 - right now that looks like decent value I'd have thought.
That gives me an excuse to plug my Labour battleground post again for this afternoon's readers:
The Rotherham subsample is interesting mind - assuming the Lib Dems run a candidate there then UKIP could be in with a shot come next May.
But perhaps 5-2 is about right.
This was an election where you would have thought UKIP voters were relatively highly motivated and Labour voters were not. If they didn't win this time on a lowish turnout, why would UKIP win at a general election?
I'd say a large section of Labour inclined voters were exceptionally keen to turnout and prevent anyone else getting in
Yes I would say that is an accurate assessment.
(Who says PB's political analysis lacks intellectual rigour?)
A result consistent with an alarming head and shoulders developing in the medium-term Ukip curve of UNS.Charts in this formation usually portend a correction if not impending doom looking possible around May next year with collapse to come for Ukip.
May I ask, were you so bullish about a Labour victory earlier this week? I only ask because many on here, including me, thought this was to be an easy Ukip win
I had Ukip by 6% in the prediction competition - shouldn't have overestimated the Kippers - they always fail unless its's a turncoat MP.
The Rotherham subsample is interesting mind - assuming the Lib Dems run a candidate there then UKIP could be in with a shot come next May.
But perhaps 5-2 is about right.
This was an election where you would have thought UKIP voters were relatively highly motivated and Labour voters were not. If they didn't win this time on a lowish turnout, why would UKIP win at a general election?
I'd say a large section of Labour inclined voters were exceptionally keen to turnout and prevent anyone else getting in
I would have to agree with Antifrank I am afraid. I think it is time for Ukip to be gracious in defeat.
Barnsley: Labour share FALLS from 56% to 50.7% Doncaster: Labour share FALLS from 49% to 45.4% Sheffield: Labour share INCREASES from 51% to 57% !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Rotherham: Labour share FALLS from 51% to ?
Good Lord, what would it take for people in the area to vote against Labour in a PCC election if not this child abuse scandal
Well, considering that one of the allegations floating around was that community leaders would guarantee large block votes, to have a large postal ballot result must look just a touch dodgy?
"They said I didn't have to fill in any details, just to sign my name at the bottom of the form," he says, smiling. "So I signed two."
He laughed as he told me he had no idea who was going to vote on his behalf, and whom they were going to vote for.
"I personally know 25 other people who did the same thing, lots of people just on this street, but everybody does it."
This is why Labour love postal and proxy voting so much. Also why they love Commonwealth citizens' voting in the UK: they struggle with the natives, so allow foreigners to vote who they can run up the tally with.
The Rotherham subsample is interesting mind - assuming the Lib Dems run a candidate there then UKIP could be in with a shot come next May.
But perhaps 5-2 is about right.
This was an election where you would have thought UKIP voters were relatively highly motivated and Labour voters were not. If they didn't win this time on a lowish turnout, why would UKIP win at a general election?
You're probably right - what price are Labour here ?
1/3 - right now that looks like decent value I'd have thought.
That gives me an excuse to plug my Labour battleground post again for this afternoon's readers:
With reference to the Darlington by-election, here's the projected UK result [add about 0.8% for GB result] in 2015 if the same swings as occurred in 1983 take place:
Con 34.6% (-1.5%) Lab 19.7% (-9.3%)
Tory result looks plausible. It's a good job those Red Liberals will prop Ed up a bit...
Surely this isn't possible, after all noone votes Labour, right? (Despite a mean lead above all other parties in national opinion polls of course)
Love it.
'PCC elections are a complete waste of time and money, except for when the Labour candidate wins'.
They are a waste of time and money whoever wins, in my humble view. They ought to be scrapped. They haven't caught on and politicising the Thin Blue Line is wrong.
For TSE: Should I interpret the Sheffield vote as indicating possibly, just possibly, Clegg isn't as secure as you've indicated in the past? Or is that wishful thinking?
Barnsley: Labour share FALLS from 56% to 50.7% Doncaster: Labour share FALLS from 49% to 45.4% Sheffield: Labour share INCREASES from 51% to 57% !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Rotherham: Labour share FALLS from 51% to ?
Lib Dems?
Is the Hallam effect. UKIP really do repulse the voters of Sheffield Hallam.
The Rotherham subsample is interesting mind - assuming the Lib Dems run a candidate there then UKIP could be in with a shot come next May.
But perhaps 5-2 is about right.
This was an election where you would have thought UKIP voters were relatively highly motivated and Labour voters were not. If they didn't win this time on a lowish turnout, why would UKIP win at a general election?
You're probably right - what price are Labour here ?
1/3 - right now that looks like decent value I'd have thought.
That gives me an excuse to plug my Labour battleground post again for this afternoon's readers:
The Rotherham subsample is interesting mind - assuming the Lib Dems run a candidate there then UKIP could be in with a shot come next May.
But perhaps 5-2 is about right.
This was an election where you would have thought UKIP voters were relatively highly motivated and Labour voters were not. If they didn't win this time on a lowish turnout, why would UKIP win at a general election?
I'd say a large section of Labour inclined voters were exceptionally keen to turnout and prevent anyone else getting in
Yes I would say that is an accurate assessment.
(Who says PB's political analysis lacks intellectual rigour?)
And who says these PCCs and their elections are a waste? We have seen democracy in action and prople have taken an interest. In this case they have voted against UKIP. In the recent and forthcoming by election can we say the public were/are voting for 'UKIP'? They are faced with a sitting MP who has switched. They are not voting for an insurgent UKIP candidate.
The Rotherham subsample is interesting mind - assuming the Lib Dems run a candidate there then UKIP could be in with a shot come next May.
But perhaps 5-2 is about right.
This was an election where you would have thought UKIP voters were relatively highly motivated and Labour voters were not. If they didn't win this time on a lowish turnout, why would UKIP win at a general election?
You're probably right - what price are Labour here ?
1/3 - right now that looks like decent value I'd have thought.
That gives me an excuse to plug my Labour battleground post again for this afternoon's readers:
Barnsley: Labour share FALLS from 56% to 50.7% Doncaster: Labour share FALLS from 49% to 45.4% Sheffield: Labour share INCREASES from 51% to 57% !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Rotherham: Labour share FALLS from 51% to ?
Lib Dems?
Probably gone round the universities. The field is clear on the left with Green and LD standing down.
Years ago I visited Sheffield, but I didn't get to speak with anyone - I had been in a meeting in Bolton and was asked as a favour if I could look in at Sheffield Council on my way home to Bournemouth, as they had a problem with some of our gear there. I got there near 5pm, went up to the computer room, and asked "What is the trouble". No response from the person I was with. I looked round and found everybody had left including the person who had let me in, leaving me standing there alone.
Robert Kimbell retweeted Keith Stevens @Belfastbrit 7m7 minutes ago @afneil labour claim 80% postal votes. Why are you not looking into this absurdity? 80% really? http://labli.st/1paHkxy
Just out of hospital and this is the news that greets me, really!
The Rotherham subsample is interesting mind - assuming the Lib Dems run a candidate there then UKIP could be in with a shot come next May.
But perhaps 5-2 is about right.
This was an election where you would have thought UKIP voters were relatively highly motivated and Labour voters were not. If they didn't win this time on a lowish turnout, why would UKIP win at a general election?
You're probably right - what price are Labour here ?
1/3 - right now that looks like decent value I'd have thought.
That gives me an excuse to plug my Labour battleground post again for this afternoon's readers:
Barnsley: Labour share FALLS from 56% to 50.7% Doncaster: Labour share FALLS from 49% to 45.4% Sheffield: Labour share INCREASES from 51% to 57% !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Rotherham: Labour share FALLS from 51% to ?
Lib Dems?
Probably gone round the universities. The field is clear on the left with Green and LD standing down.
For TSE: Should I interpret the Sheffield vote as indicating possibly, just possibly, Clegg isn't as secure as you've indicated in the past? Or is that wishful thinking?
Wishful thinking as there was no Lib Dem candidate.
The other day I said Lab would win this election
I am even more certain that Clegg will retain Hallam comfortably.
Good Lord, what would it take for people in the area to vote against Labour in a PCC election if not this child abuse scandal
Well, considering that one of the allegations floating around was that community leaders would guarantee large block votes, to have a large postal ballot result must look just a touch dodgy?
"They said I didn't have to fill in any details, just to sign my name at the bottom of the form," he says, smiling. "So I signed two."
He laughed as he told me he had no idea who was going to vote on his behalf, and whom they were going to vote for.
"I personally know 25 other people who did the same thing, lots of people just on this street, but everybody does it."
This is why Labour love postal and proxy voting so much. Also why they love Commonwealth citizens' voting in the UK: they struggle with the natives, so allow foreigners to vote who they can run up the tally with.
Indeed. That is why I am surprised that the tories did not close off that particular loophole instead of fooling around with constituency boundaries. They might have actually won that vote.
For TSE: Should I interpret the Sheffield vote as indicating possibly, just possibly, Clegg isn't as secure as you've indicated in the past? Or is that wishful thinking?
Wishful thinking as there was no Lib Dem candidate.
The other day I said Lab would win this election
I am even more certain that Clegg will retain Hallam comfortably.
Good Lord, what would it take for people in the area to vote against Labour in a PCC election if not this child abuse scandal
Well, considering that one of the allegations floating around was that community leaders would guarantee large block votes, to have a large postal ballot result must look just a touch dodgy?
"They said I didn't have to fill in any details, just to sign my name at the bottom of the form," he says, smiling. "So I signed two."
He laughed as he told me he had no idea who was going to vote on his behalf, and whom they were going to vote for.
"I personally know 25 other people who did the same thing, lots of people just on this street, but everybody does it."
This is why Labour love postal and proxy voting so much. Also why they love Commonwealth citizens' voting in the UK: they struggle with the natives, so allow foreigners to vote who they can run up the tally with.
Indeed. That is why I am surprised that the tories did not close off that particular loophole instead of fooling around with constituency boundaries. They might have actually won that vote.
Cameron is weak on anything where Labour might scream the "racist" card.
May I ask, were you so bullish about a Labour victory earlier this week? I only ask because many on here, including me, thought this was to be an easy Ukip win
I had Ukip by 6% in the prediction competition - shouldn't have overestimated the Kippers - they always fail unless its's a turncoat MP.
These could be wise and important words. Thank you for your reply
For TSE: Should I interpret the Sheffield vote as indicating possibly, just possibly, Clegg isn't as secure as you've indicated in the past? Or is that wishful thinking?
Wishful thinking as there was no Lib Dem candidate.
The other day I said Lab would win this election
I am even more certain that Clegg will retain Hallam comfortably.
Sigh. Pop goes my lovely balloon...
The Lib Dems are very active in the seat. I've had monthly newsletters from the Lib Dems.
While not taking away from Labour's victory, how wise is it to read too much into an election with only 10% turnout, and where only 20% of that vote was in person?
Labour should feel humbled by the incredible loyalty of voters whose interest they have failed to advocate or protect for years now. Instead, Labour will take it for granted. At some stage the dam will break though.
For UKIP, expectation management is clearly a problem. And if the forgotten. left-behind working class is to be a genuine target, there may have to be some thinking about policy beyond the EU and immigration. Whether the party's ex-Tory leadership can do that is open to question.
Screaming Eagles says 'Pretty vile smear ain't it. ' of a UKIP attack
He is right and its cheap nastiness like that that turns me off UKIP. The problem about the child sex cases etc are severe and the incidents horrible. But its sickening to see the UKIP bigots leaping all over it to smear their opponents.
While not taking away from Labour's victory, how wise is it to read too much into an election with only 10% turnout, and where only 20% of that vote was in person?
Labour voters are far less motivated than Kippers so I think its good for Labour.
It is Edith Piaf for me - probably the result of too much misspent time in parts of Paris. More into the modern era I have a soft spot for Carla Bruni, but got to know her very well in her early years around Cap D'Antibes.
Would it be okay if these jobs were down mines instead? In Durham? Or Merthyr?
Mr Financier, that raises an interesting question for our Kipper friends. How are they going to square that circle? Clearly the current policy of insisting that claimants have a good reason for turning down jobs isn’t working, in your locality at least. Why not?
Plato seems to me to be somewhat misanthropic. Last night he declared he liked to blow raspberries in the face of people who don't share his misanthropic humour. Today he says the poor are thick. I can only presume he is rich and employed in a wonderfully well paid job, and deserves every penny. What job do you have Plato?
*she
Yesterdays comment on something like the temptations of Lesbianism may have been a small clue
That poster (or some iteration thereof) once fretted no end about my gender - which I guess is a diversion from their tiresome posts about whether people are following their betting tips.....
Carlotta's avatar is actually Marie Dressler in Dinner at Eight!
While the world remembers Gable, Garbo, Crawford, Dietrich, Hepburn and Davis from the 1930s, Dressler was bigger than them all in the first half of the decade - and already dying from cancer when this was shot.....
Labour should feel humbled by the incredible loyalty of voters whose interest they have failed to advocate or protect for years now. Instead, Labour will take it for granted. At some stage the dam will break though.
The Rotherham subsample is interesting mind - assuming the Lib Dems run a candidate there then UKIP could be in with a shot come next May.
But perhaps 5-2 is about right.
This was an election where you would have thought UKIP voters were relatively highly motivated and Labour voters were not. If they didn't win this time on a lowish turnout, why would UKIP win at a general election?
I'd say a large section of Labour inclined voters were exceptionally keen to turnout and prevent anyone else getting in
Yes I would say that is an accurate assessment.
(Who says PB's political analysis lacks intellectual rigour?)
And who says these PCCs and their elections are a waste? We have seen democracy in action and prople have taken an interest. In this case they have voted against UKIP. In the recent and forthcoming by election can we say the public were/are voting for 'UKIP'? They are faced with a sitting MP who has switched. They are not voting for an insurgent UKIP candidate.
I was (flippantly, I grant) responding to @Isam's "it was Lab supporters voting for Lab" scything analysis rather than a comment on the PCCs.
But it is a good point. I am of course hugely in favour of extending the democratic process and participation and the PCCs are one such instance of this. People are just getting used to the fact that they have this power and I'm sure as and when they get used to it, turnout will rise.
There are of course those who say that no one wants them and the previous PAs were fine. I disagree but I can see that it is a new dynamic and as such, needs some getting used to.
Labour should feel humbled by the incredible loyalty of voters whose interest they have failed to advocate or protect for years now. Instead, Labour will take it for granted. At some stage the dam will break though.
For UKIP, expectation management is clearly a problem. And if the forgotten. left-behind working class is to be a genuine target, there may have to be some thinking about policy beyond the EU and immigration. Whether the party's ex-Tory leadership can do that is open to question.
"For UKIP, expectation management is clearly a problem."
Why is that? Did they come out and say they thought they'd win?
Labour should feel humbled by the incredible loyalty of voters whose interest they have failed to advocate or protect for years now. Instead, Labour will take it for granted. At some stage the dam will break though.
Looks like it has in Scotland.
True. And it's because the SNP are a left of centre party these days.
Labour should feel humbled by the incredible loyalty of voters whose interest they have failed to advocate or protect for years now. Instead, Labour will take it for granted. At some stage the dam will break though.
For UKIP, expectation management is clearly a problem. And if the forgotten. left-behind working class is to be a genuine target, there may have to be some thinking about policy beyond the EU and immigration. Whether the party's ex-Tory leadership can do that is open to question.
"For UKIP, expectation management is clearly a problem."
Why is that? Did they come out and say they thought they'd win?
It's a nonsense. Do you want the fiver at 5-2 ? (Excuse the stake I'd have offered more if I didn't get on with Laddies...)
Looks like a clear Labour win. Alan Billings was a very good candidate and I think Ed should be grateful to him.
UKIP also overplayed their hand.
Take a look at their MEP and Rotherham candidate Twitter feed from last night.
They managed to alienate the people they needed with their nasty campaign.
Yes, that's right. I just think Billings came across as much more reasonable.
The whole tone was if you don't vote UKIP you're a paedo enabler.
As one of the parents of abused child said the other day. People forget that Rotherham hasn't exploded in race riots following recent events because people know it was a small minority.
Some in UKIP would have you believe all Pakis are paedos.
"Some in UKIP would have you believe all Pakis are paedos."
Who exactly? Time to name names.
Check out some Twitter feeds or the comment sections under the telegraph or the mail.
There's a quote saying that "all Pakis are paedos" from an official UKIP source? Please link.
Or just the usual smearing and innuendo that passes for political debate these days.
I'll dig out the links over the weekend.
But it has been brought to my attention that one Kipper on this very board said that I was an establishment Tory and then said of Establishment Tories
"Establishment Tories and Establishment Labour have a symbiotic relationship - large numbers of their votes depend on a fear of the other.
So what neither want is the other to lose their heartland support.
And if that means thousands of children continue to be raped then that's deemed a price worth paying."
Pretty vile smear ain't it.
Of course I'll be able to find a post from you condemning such a vile smear.
The former Labour MP admitted they didn't sort out the abuse issue in Rotherham because they were worried about losing voters from ethnic minorities, so I'm not sure alluding to something that is clearly true and well-documented is actually a vile smear.
Actually I'm starting to think that pointing out uncomfortable issues is actually considered "vile" even if it is completely true. The Tories and Labour seem to be refusing to highlight and deal with the abuse cases, until this changes there's absolutely nothing remotely smeary about saying that however right-on it makes you feel pretending otherwise.
The Rotherham subsample is interesting mind - assuming the Lib Dems run a candidate there then UKIP could be in with a shot come next May.
But perhaps 5-2 is about right.
This was an election where you would have thought UKIP voters were relatively highly motivated and Labour voters were not. If they didn't win this time on a lowish turnout, why would UKIP win at a general election?
I'd say a large section of Labour inclined voters were exceptionally keen to turnout and prevent anyone else getting in
Yes I would say that is an accurate assessment.
(Who says PB's political analysis lacks intellectual rigour?)
And who says these PCCs and their elections are a waste? We have seen democracy in action and prople have taken an interest. In this case they have voted against UKIP. In the recent and forthcoming by election can we say the public were/are voting for 'UKIP'? They are faced with a sitting MP who has switched. They are not voting for an insurgent UKIP candidate.
I was (flippantly, I grant) responding to @Isam's "it was Lab supporters voting for Lab" scything analysis rather than a comment on the PCCs.
But it is a good point. I am of course hugely in favour of extending the democratic process and participation and the PCCs are one such instance of this. People are just getting used to the fact that they have this power and I'm sure as and when they get used to it, turnout will rise.
There are of course those who say that no one wants them and the previous PAs were fine. I disagree but I can see that it is a new dynamic and as such, needs some getting used to.
For TSE: Should I interpret the Sheffield vote as indicating possibly, just possibly, Clegg isn't as secure as you've indicated in the past? Or is that wishful thinking?
Wishful thinking as there was no Lib Dem candidate.
The other day I said Lab would win this election
I am even more certain that Clegg will retain Hallam comfortably.
Robert Kimbell retweeted Keith Stevens @Belfastbrit 7m7 minutes ago @afneil labour claim 80% postal votes. Why are you not looking into this absurdity? 80% really? http://labli.st/1paHkxy
Just out of hospital and this is the news that greets me, really!
It must be their client vote, trapped on the dole, too unfit and lazy to walk to the polling booth.
Looks like a clear Labour win. Alan Billings was a very good candidate and I think Ed should be grateful to him.
UKIP also overplayed their hand.
Take a look at their MEP and Rotherham candidate Twitter feed from last night.
They managed to alienate the people they needed with their nasty campaign.
Yes, that's right. I just think Billings came across as much more reasonable.
The whole tone was if you don't vote UKIP you're a paedo enabler.
As one of the parents of abused child said the other day. People forget that Rotherham hasn't exploded in race riots following recent events because people know it was a small minority.
Some in UKIP would have you believe all Pakis are paedos.
"Some in UKIP would have you believe all Pakis are paedos."
Who exactly? Time to name names.
Check out some Twitter feeds or the comment sections under the telegraph or the mail.
There's a quote saying that "all Pakis are paedos" from an official UKIP source? Please link.
Or just the usual smearing and innuendo that passes for political debate these days.
I'll dig out the links over the weekend.
But it has been brought to my attention that one Kipper on this very board said that I was an establishment Tory and then said of Establishment Tories
"Establishment Tories and Establishment Labour have a symbiotic relationship - large numbers of their votes depend on a fear of the other.
So what neither want is the other to lose their heartland support.
And if that means thousands of children continue to be raped then that's deemed a price worth paying."
Pretty vile smear ain't it.
Of course I'll be able to find a post from you condemning such a vile smear.
The former Labour MP admitted they didn't sort out the abuse issue in Rotherham because they were worried about losing voters from ethnic minorities, so I'm not sure alluding to something that is clearly true and well-documented is actually a vile smear.
Actually I'm starting to think that pointing out uncomfortable issues is actually considered "vile" even if it is completely true. The Tories and Labour seem to be refusing to highlight and deal with the abuse cases, until this changes there's absolutely nothing remotely smeary about saying that however right-on it makes you feel.
People seem more bothered about the way the truth is told than getting it told at all
Labour should feel humbled by the incredible loyalty of voters whose interest they have failed to advocate or protect for years now. Instead, Labour will take it for granted. At some stage the dam will break though.
For UKIP, expectation management is clearly a problem. And if the forgotten. left-behind working class is to be a genuine target, there may have to be some thinking about policy beyond the EU and immigration. Whether the party's ex-Tory leadership can do that is open to question.
"For UKIP, expectation management is clearly a problem."
Why is that? Did they come out and say they thought they'd win?
It's a nonsense. Do you want the fiver at 5-2 ? (Excuse the stake I'd have offered more if I didn't get on with Laddies...)
Looks like a clear Labour win. Alan Billings was a very good candidate and I think Ed should be grateful to him.
UKIP also overplayed their hand.
Take a look at their MEP and Rotherham candidate Twitter feed from last night.
They managed to alienate the people they needed with their nasty campaign.
Yes, that's right. I just think Billings came across as much more reasonable.
The whole tone was if you don't vote UKIP you're a paedo enabler.
As one of the parents of abused child said the other day. People forget that Rotherham hasn't exploded in race riots following recent events because people know it was a small minority.
Some in UKIP would have you believe all Pakis are paedos.
"Some in UKIP would have you believe all Pakis are paedos."
Who exactly? Time to name names.
Check out some Twitter feeds or the comment sections under the telegraph or the mail.
There's a quote saying that "all Pakis are paedos" from an official UKIP source? Please link.
Or just the usual smearing and innuendo that passes for political debate these days.
I'll dig out the links over the weekend.
But it has been brought to my attention that one Kipper on this very board said that I was an establishment Tory and then said of Establishment Tories
"Establishment Tories and Establishment Labour have a symbiotic relationship - large numbers of their votes depend on a fear of the other.
So what neither want is the other to lose their heartland support.
And if that means thousands of children continue to be raped then that's deemed a price worth paying."
Pretty vile smear ain't it.
Of course I'll be able to find a post from you condemning such a vile smear.
The former Labour MP admitted they didn't sort out the abuse issue in Rotherham because they were worried about losing voters from ethnic minorities, so I'm not sure alluding to something that is clearly true and well-documented is actually a vile smear.
Actually I'm starting to think that pointing out uncomfortable issues is actually considered "vile" even if it is completely true. The Tories and Labour seem to be refusing to highlight and deal with the abuse cases, until this changes there's absolutely nothing remotely smeary about saying that however right-on it makes you feel.
So You think I think kids being raped is a price worth paying for continued Tory or Lab success.
While not taking away from Labour's victory, how wise is it to read too much into an election with only 10% turnout, and where only 20% of that vote was in person?
You are implying that the UKIP tendency are not equally if not more prejudiced. That hardly seems to fit.
No... I never said that. I said that (paraphrasing) socialism is a religion and like all religions it requires blind faith and obedience from its adherents no matter what happens.
By the way I'm guessing Rotherham is an aglomoration of Rotheram (Parliament), Rother Valley and one other ?)
I expect UKIP will have won in Rother Valley as certainly the areas I cycle through are quite white as opposed to the more "diverse" Rotherham proper constituency.
For TSE: Should I interpret the Sheffield vote as indicating possibly, just possibly, Clegg isn't as secure as you've indicated in the past? Or is that wishful thinking?
Wishful thinking as there was no Lib Dem candidate.
The other day I said Lab would win this election
I am even more certain that Clegg will retain Hallam comfortably.
Sigh. Pop goes my lovely balloon...
I recently backed the Tories to take Twickenham.
Vince losing next year would cheer us both up.
Just down the road from me, so yes, that would perk me up somewhat. Well ok, I'd laugh like a drain...
I must get a copy of her version of Je ne regret rein.
I rather like Ella Fitzgerald - I wish Ms Monroe did better stuff - I tried her Greatest Hits to get I Want To Be Loved By You - and it was the only decent song on it.
It is Edith Piaf for me - probably the result of too much misspent time in parts of Paris. More into the modern era I have a soft spot for Carla Bruni, but got to know her very well in her early years around Cap D'Antibes.
Would it be okay if these jobs were down mines instead? In Durham? Or Merthyr?
Mr Financier, that raises an interesting question for our Kipper friends. How are they going to square that circle? Clearly the current policy of insisting that claimants have a good reason for turning down jobs isn’t working, in your locality at least. Why not?
Plato seems to me to be somewhat misanthropic. Last night he declared he liked to blow raspberries in the face of people who don't share his misanthropic humour. Today he says the poor are thick. I can only presume he is rich and employed in a wonderfully well paid job, and deserves every penny. What job do you have Plato?
*she
Yesterdays comment on something like the temptations of Lesbianism may have been a small clue
That poster (or some iteration thereof) once fretted no end about my gender - which I guess is a diversion from their tiresome posts about whether people are following their betting tips.....
Carlotta's avatar is actually Marie Dressler in Dinner at Eight!
While the world remembers Gable, Garbo, Crawford, Dietrich, Hepburn and Davis from the 1930s, Dressler was bigger than them all in the first half of the decade - and already dying from cancer when this was shot.....
Robert Kimbell retweeted Keith Stevens @Belfastbrit 7m7 minutes ago @afneil labour claim 80% postal votes. Why are you not looking into this absurdity? 80% really? http://labli.st/1paHkxy
Just out of hospital and this is the news that greets me, really!
Yes, especially as 51% voted Labour last time.
According to TSE, the high postal vote is due to half term.
This means the 80% are disproportionately people with school age children.
Comments
Also worth remembering that UKIP were favourites to win for a time with William Hill only a few days ago.
But perhaps 5-2 is about right.
I recall Killer Cucumbers.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Darlington_by-election,_1983
No wonder Labour treat their voters with utter contempt. They just keep coming back for more.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=EQNQqwFK-OM
While the world remembers Gable, Garbo, Crawford, Dietrich, Hepburn and Davis from the 1930s, Dressler was bigger than them all in the first half of the decade - and already dying from cancer when this was shot.....
"TheScreamingEagles •
Posts: 16,744 September 11
"He should have used the defence "who hasn't got pissed on Valentine's Day and shot his load all over his girlfriend" defence.
He'd have been found not guilty months ago "
I'd have made the joke regardless of her nationality or skin colour.
Electoral fraud should carry a huge prison sentence in my view.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-south-yorkshire-29837315
No updates for 2 hours...
'PCC elections are a complete waste of time and money, except for when the Labour candidate wins'.
May I ask, were you so bullish about a Labour victory earlier this week? I only ask because many on here, including me, thought this was to be an easy Ukip win
I loved Jean Harlow.
I would interpret it as the old scouting phrase: "come on and have a go if you think you are hard enough"
That gives me an excuse to plug my Labour battleground post again for this afternoon's readers:
http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2014/10/the-labour-battleground-in-october-2014.html
Will Ed Miliband lead Labour into next general election? Pending £160ish
Ed should do his utmost to stay in the job, I quite agree.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/books/11193714/Meet-Margot-Asquith-aprime-ministers-wife-who-was-more-vilified-than-Cherie....html
(Who says PB's political analysis lacks intellectual rigour?)
For the purpose of this election, isn't Rotherham an amalgamation of three HoC constituencies?
So, if it is close overall in the three combined, there's a pretty decent chance UKIP have won in one of them, isn't there?
Doncaster: Labour share FALLS from 49% to 45.4%
Sheffield: Labour share INCREASES from 51% to 57% !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Rotherham: Labour share FALLS from 51% to ?
Lib Dems?
He laughed as he told me he had no idea who was going to vote on his behalf, and whom they were going to vote for.
"I personally know 25 other people who did the same thing, lots of people just on this street, but everybody does it."
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/8655697.stm
This is why Labour love postal and proxy voting so much. Also why they love Commonwealth citizens' voting in the UK: they struggle with the natives, so allow foreigners to vote who they can run up the tally with.
Con 34.6% (-1.5%)
Lab 19.7% (-9.3%)
Tory result looks plausible. It's a good job those Red Liberals will prop Ed up a bit...
In the recent and forthcoming by election can we say the public were/are voting for 'UKIP'?
They are faced with a sitting MP who has switched. They are not voting for an insurgent UKIP candidate.
Keith Stevens @Belfastbrit 7m7 minutes ago
@afneil labour claim 80% postal votes. Why are you not looking into this absurdity? 80% really? http://labli.st/1paHkxy
Just out of hospital and this is the news that greets me, really!
Offer is open to anyone else
In whatever size you want
@Antifrank interested?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-29851285
Global warming? What global warming?
The other day I said Lab would win this election
I am even more certain that Clegg will retain Hallam comfortably.
Great to see UKIP squashed flat.
The Tories have sent once since the Euros.
Labour have sent the square of bugger all
http://www.youtube.com/
watch?v=gXYfnWRp1Q0
For UKIP, expectation management is clearly a problem. And if the forgotten. left-behind working class is to be a genuine target, there may have to be some thinking about policy beyond the EU and immigration. Whether the party's ex-Tory leadership can do that is open to question.
He is right and its cheap nastiness like that that turns me off UKIP.
The problem about the child sex cases etc are severe and the incidents horrible. But its sickening to see the UKIP bigots leaping all over it to smear their opponents.
Should have ignored the negativity of last couple of days and stuck with the heart.
I am doing this now on most seats at GE2015
Can't believe so many people were predicting a Ukip win.
But it is a good point. I am of course hugely in favour of extending the democratic process and participation and the PCCs are one such instance of this. People are just getting used to the fact that they have this power and I'm sure as and when they get used to it, turnout will rise.
There are of course those who say that no one wants them and the previous PAs were fine. I disagree but I can see that it is a new dynamic and as such, needs some getting used to.
Why is that? Did they come out and say they thought they'd win?
Actually I'm starting to think that pointing out uncomfortable issues is actually considered "vile" even if it is completely true. The Tories and Labour seem to be refusing to highlight and deal with the abuse cases, until this changes there's absolutely nothing remotely smeary about saying that however right-on it makes you feel pretending otherwise.
Vince losing next year would cheer us both up.
I went for LAB by 11.98 pity there wasnt an ARSE so i could compare my prediction with JackW.
Cheers.
No... I never said that. I said that (paraphrasing) socialism is a religion and like all religions it requires blind faith and obedience from its adherents no matter what happens.
I expect UKIP will have won in Rother Valley as certainly the areas I cycle through are quite white as opposed to the more "diverse" Rotherham proper constituency.
I rather like Ella Fitzgerald - I wish Ms Monroe did better stuff - I tried her Greatest Hits to get I Want To Be Loved By You - and it was the only decent song on it.
Bobby Vee is a favourite of mine.
According to TSE, the high postal vote is due to half term.
This means the 80% are disproportionately people with school age children.
I smell a rat.