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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The European Elections Results Thread

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  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,121
    Eastern:

    UKIP 35% Con 28% Lab 17% Grn 8% LD 7%
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,779
    Farage has a real chance here to utterly change uk politics
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    Disappointed by the turnout figures, even with all the extra interest of a UKIP win.

    East of England, LDs only down 7%...granted as they were only at 14% to begin with, which makes it less great.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Labour on the way to third place nationally after that result...
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    Next said:


    Eastern

    AIFE 26,564
    BNP 12,465
    CPA 11,627
    Con 446,569 3
    EDem 16,497
    Green 133,331
    Lab 271,601 1
    LD 108,010
    No2EU 4,870
    UKIP 542,812 3

    Green 133,331
    LD 108,010

    :)
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,591
    Scott_P said:

    @murdo_fraser: In Perth & Kinross the Tory vote is UP 1%, SNP DOWN by same margin. 2% swing SNP to Tory #EP2014

    That's a 1% swing...
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Rise in UKIP vote more than twice than for Labour in Eastern region, 15% vs 7%.
  • In the East, Duff by name and Duff by nature. Anyone else hate the English?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Nick Robinson: Labour might not necessarily come second.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,693
    RodCrosby said:

    Labour on the way to third place nationally after that result...

    How do you calculate?
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    RodCrosby said:

    Labour on the way to third place nationally after that result...

    Watch the INDYREF market in that case.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,591
    Labour need to gain 13% on the tories to come 2nd - not going to do it by much
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,779
    Oooooh Nick brings up the issue of labour coming third
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,668

    Farage has a real chance here to utterly change uk politics

    In what way, do you think? Seriously - I genuinely can't see it.

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,121
    99.9% certain that BBC are showing cumulative seats and vote shares on their ticker.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,693
    All over according to Betfair now.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Not clear to Toenails that Labour will get 2nd !
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Labour currently in third place despite one of their best regions being declared in NE.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,121
    edited May 2014
    Maitlis - "LDs tanking"

    :)
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549

    No lib dem seats for the east....

    There's two realistic options for LD seats, 1 in London, 1 in SEE.

    Not likely to get one anywhere else. SWE is a real longshot.

    (imho of course).
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,591

    99.9% certain that BBC are showing cumulative seats and vote shares on their ticker.

    Yep - quite irresponsible really - was far from clear for the first 5 minutes.
  • Swiss_BobSwiss_Bob Posts: 619
    Labour currently in third place and libDems in fifth, I wish I had another bottle of JD
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,693
    Does TSE have an Ed is Crap thread ready-to-go?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    UKIP 1.01 £2.00
    £0.02 ^_~
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,779

    Farage has a real chance here to utterly change uk politics

    In what way, do you think? Seriously - I genuinely can't see it.

    I can see them winning seats in fptp system now,
  • Lib Dems on 3% in Wales so far ... Ouch!
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Looks like AIFE on about 2%, by my rough sums
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Wales looks like Lab 32 UKIP 29 Cpn 19 Plaid 17. 1 seat each on these figures
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    UNS after two results

    UKIP 25
    Con 21
    Lab 19
    LD 0
    Grn 2
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464

    Lib Dems on 3% in Wales so far ... Ouch!

    Christ. MOE nought?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. Slackbladder, Suzanne Evans could win a seat.
  • MillsyMillsy Posts: 900
    Tories only needed a few thousand votes to keep NE seat, so close
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    welshowl said:

    Lib Dems on 3% in Wales so far ... Ouch!

    Christ. MOE nought?
    Do you have MOE in a real vote?
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    edited May 2014
    Betfair: UKIP 1.01 Most Votes
  • Fat_SteveFat_Steve Posts: 361
    If I've got this right, then Andrew Duff, LibDem, and president of the Union of European Federalists has lot his seat
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_Duff
    SeanT will be gutted.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    Millsy said:

    Tories only needed a few thousand votes to keep NE seat, so close

    Needed 3,500 more.

  • SeanT said:

    Lib Dems on 3% in Wales so far ... Ouch!

    3%.
    Three. Per. Cent.
    LDs losing 2/3 of their vote in Wales....
  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    so far looks like Labour taking votes off LD and UKIP from others Con obnly losing 2%
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    Voters rejecting Ed Miliband's Labour and forming a new Opposition.....
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited May 2014

    RodCrosby said:

    Labour on the way to third place nationally after that result...

    How do you calculate?
    Tories were 12% ahead of Lab in 2009. Looks like 1% now after 2 results. Lab need a >6% Con-Lab swing to beat the Tories.

    Sky have voteshare C -2.8, Lab 8.2.

    Not enough.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    maaarsh said:

    There's a hell of a lot of racists, fruitcakes and loonies out there tonight.

    The closet door has been opened and they have all fallen out.

  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,779
    SeanT said:

    Lib Dems on 3% in Wales so far ... Ouch!

    3%.

    Three. Per. Cent.

    Lib dems could seriously have problems in the general election... Clegg could come under eve more pressure
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,668

    Farage has a real chance here to utterly change uk politics

    In what way, do you think? Seriously - I genuinely can't see it.

    I can see them winning seats in fptp system now,

    One or two perhaps. But not sure what that will change. Unless it leads to the end of FPTP. That really would be seismic. And fantastic.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406

    Betfair: UKIP 1.01 Most Votes

    That 1.01 is just people cashing out tbh.
  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    I forecast (not officially) that no party would get more than 27% and top 3 parties will be within 1%. So, UKIP 27%, Lab, 27% and Conservative 25%. Sorry, to forecast this now onve elections coming in.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    Fat_Steve said:

    If I've got this right, then Andrew Duff, LibDem, and president of the Union of European Federalists has lot his seat
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_Duff
    SeanT will be gutted.

    Duff? Isn't that the one who hates England?
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    Farage has a real chance here to utterly change uk politics

    In what way, do you think? Seriously - I genuinely can't see it.

    Quite right, Mr. O.. It will be back to political business as usual on Tuesday. A fun night but it will change next to nothing. We must also remember that OGH said that Thursday was a disaster for UKIP and their popular support has dropped massively.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,693
    RodCrosby said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Labour on the way to third place nationally after that result...

    How do you calculate?
    Tories were 12% ahead of Lab in 2009. Looks like 1% now after 2 results. Lab need a 6% con-Lab swing to beat the Tories.

    Sky have voteshare C -2.8, Lab 8.2.

    Not enough.
    Cheers Rod. So Labour around 24% nationally?
  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    Britain Elects 2014 ‏@britainelects 1m

    The Green Party has beaten the Liberal Democrats in Sheffield (Nick Clegg's constituency area) on popular vote.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,779
    AveryLP said:

    maaarsh said:

    There's a hell of a lot of racists, fruitcakes and loonies out there tonight.

    The closet door has been opened and they have all fallen out.

    Racists!! Racists everywhere!!!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    UKIP will storm north Wales, it's tailor-made for them.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    I predicted a few days ago that UKIP would get 171 seats at the locals and 34.4% for the Euros.
    In the event I fell short by about 5% for the locals, there being only 161 seats. If I extrapolate from that to the Euros UKIP would get 32.68%.

    IT LOOKS LIKE I'LL BE PROVED RIGHT
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557

    Farage has a real chance here to utterly change uk politics

    In what way, do you think? Seriously - I genuinely can't see it.

    Quite right, Mr. O.. It will be back to political business as usual on Tuesday. A fun night but it will change next to nothing. We must also remember that OGH said that Thursday was a disaster for UKIP and their popular support has dropped massively.
    :)
  • Given split UKIP/Con votes, there is a real chance now of EdM winning most seats in 2015, but not having real legitimacy.

    Perhaps he should begin discussions with Clegg? Who would have thought it? The one person who may remain in Government for 10 years running would be Nick Clegg!
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    Farage has a real chance here to utterly change uk politics

    In what way, do you think? Seriously - I genuinely can't see it.

    I can see them winning seats in fptp system now,

    One or two perhaps. But not sure what that will change. Unless it leads to the end of FPTP. That really would be seismic. And fantastic.

    Bloody hellski, here you go again. If this hobby horse of yours was real flesh and blood you'd have flogged it into Morrison's burgers by now.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    London may come to Labour's aid in keeping 2nd place....
  • Fat_Steve said:

    If I've got this right, then Andrew Duff, LibDem, and president of the Union of European Federalists has lot his seat
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_Duff
    SeanT will be gutted.

    Duff? Isn't that the one who hates England?
    Yes and good riddance to him. Now onto the 2nd bottle.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,564
    Broxtowe result UKIP 9488 Labour 8118 Con 7386 Green 2374 LD 1957 Pseudo-UKIP 467, BNP 444, Eng Dem 311 Harmony 43. UKIP ahead by less than initially expected but overall E Mids result currently expected to be UKIP 2 (+1) Con 2 (NC) Lab 1 (NC) LD 0 (-1)
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    This Front Nazional guy does not seem happy with the line of questioning.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    It's going to be mighty close for second place between Con and Lab. Labour are probably third in England whatever happens.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    marke09 said:

    Britain Elects 2014 ‏@britainelects 1m

    The Green Party has beaten the Liberal Democrats in Sheffield (Nick Clegg's constituency area) on popular vote.

    It just gets better.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,668
    GeoffM said:

    Farage has a real chance here to utterly change uk politics

    In what way, do you think? Seriously - I genuinely can't see it.

    I can see them winning seats in fptp system now,

    One or two perhaps. But not sure what that will change. Unless it leads to the end of FPTP. That really would be seismic. And fantastic.

    Bloody hellski, here you go again. If this hobby horse of yours was real flesh and blood you'd have flogged it into Morrison's burgers by now.

    I think UKIP should get the seats their vote deserves, that's all.

  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited May 2014
    OGH has lost pride and money tonight.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,564
    LibDems couldn't believe they were 5th and demanded that their and Green bundles were recounted. Result: 7 LibDem votes turned out to be UKIP...
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    Farage has a real chance here to utterly change uk politics

    Just as Marine le Pen has a real chance to utterly change French politics!

    UKIP and FN, two parties with successful futures ahead of them.

    Fortunately for all of us that is where their success will remain.
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    "ze 'oribble single currency which is the Euro" - I think this FN guy might have won himself some English votes...
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,693
    AndyJS said:

    It's going to be mighty close for second place between Con and Lab. Labour are probably third in England whatever happens.

    Incredible.

  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    Con down less than 3% from 2009 seems extraordinarily good given they were approx 15% ahead in GE opinion polls at that point.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Green - Lib Dem match vote looks good
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,591
    FN spokesman on the beeb already half cut and not taking any shit from the old duffer - amusing viewing
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737

    RodCrosby said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Labour on the way to third place nationally after that result...

    How do you calculate?
    Tories were 12% ahead of Lab in 2009. Looks like 1% now after 2 results. Lab need a 6% con-Lab swing to beat the Tories.

    Sky have voteshare C -2.8, Lab 8.2.

    Not enough.
    Cheers Rod. So Labour around 24% nationally?
    Lab on 24.3% based on Sky's +/- ticker.
    Con on 25.3%
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    SeanT said:

    Fat_Steve said:

    If I've got this right, then Andrew Duff, LibDem, and president of the Union of European Federalists has lot his seat
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_Duff
    SeanT will be gutted.

    Duff? Isn't that the one who hates England?
    If that happens, I am opening a SECOND bottle of St Henri 2004, and possibly cracking open the 25 year old Macallan.
    Liver transplant before 2015?
  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    AndyJS said:

    UKIP will storm north Wales, it's tailor-made for them.

    They have won Denbighshire and second on Anglesey so far
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,779

    LibDems couldn't believe they were 5th and demanded that their and Green bundles were recounted. Result: 7 LibDem votes turned out to be UKIP...

    You cant help but smile...

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. Speedy, shade unfair. The nature of publicly, regularly offering tips is that some will fail, and some will come good.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,779
    Right, do i crack open the whisky now?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Nick Clegg is closer to being ex-leader of the LD tonight and LePen is one step closer to the presidency in France.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,591
    UKIP smash Newark. Hope no one threw money away on OGH's tip.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    UKIP in lead in Newark & Sherwood district council with 33%.

    Ha ha ha.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557

    LibDems couldn't believe they were 5th and demanded that their and Green bundles were recounted. Result: 7 LibDem votes turned out to be UKIP...

    Ha ha ha. Cheers Nick! :)
  • glwglw Posts: 9,954
    "Grandad, who were the Liberal Democrats?"
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    If the Euro elections were confined to the two cities that compete in the Boat Race then Ukip would be nowhere.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Kellner: Greens to beat LDs.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    Bear in mind at all times people - no-one was voting Thursday for the possibility of Ed Miliband being Prime Minister. Read across to 2015 has limited value.

    I expect a good % of UKIP former Tories lending their vote to the Tories to prevent PM Ed. I expect a good % of UKIP former Labour to stay with UKIP because they really can't wear the idea of PM Ed.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,779
    maaarsh said:

    UKIP smash Newark. Hope no one threw money away on OGH's tip.

    Not one of his best...

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,693
    Peter Kellner pouring water on the flames of the Conservatives beating Labour. The big metropolitan cities should save them.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557

    If the Euro elections were confined to the two cities that compete in the Boat Race then Ukip would be nowhere.

    Yawn.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Harriet Harman confident of nothing.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,591

    If the Euro elections were confined to the two cities that compete in the Boat Race then Ukip would be nowhere.

    Would that we lived in more enlightened times. I certainly miss my 2nd vote.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    RodCrosby said:

    RodCrosby said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Labour on the way to third place nationally after that result...

    How do you calculate?
    Tories were 12% ahead of Lab in 2009. Looks like 1% now after 2 results. Lab need a 6% con-Lab swing to beat the Tories.

    Sky have voteshare C -2.8, Lab 8.2.

    Not enough.
    Cheers Rod. So Labour around 24% nationally?
    Lab on 24.3% based on Sky's +/- ticker.
    Con on 25.3%
    Kellner reckons Labour are getting 2nd due to metropolitan strength.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Watch the Sky +/- %

    If it adds to less than 12% for Lab minus Con, then Lab are heading for third.

    Currently 11.0%
  • Swiss_BobSwiss_Bob Posts: 619
    Watching the news I'm guessing the FN result will probably have far more effect on those running the EU than the UKIP vote.

    I would also add that the FN vote doesn't surprise me at all having lived on the border with France for decades, worked with many French people and having worked in France.

    You can call them racists and by UK standards they certainly are but I get the impression that their feelings pretty much align themselves with the general UK populace. They are just less frightened of saying exactly what they feel.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Pulpstar said:

    RodCrosby said:

    RodCrosby said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Labour on the way to third place nationally after that result...

    How do you calculate?
    Tories were 12% ahead of Lab in 2009. Looks like 1% now after 2 results. Lab need a 6% con-Lab swing to beat the Tories.

    Sky have voteshare C -2.8, Lab 8.2.

    Not enough.
    Cheers Rod. So Labour around 24% nationally?
    Lab on 24.3% based on Sky's +/- ticker.
    Con on 25.3%
    Kellner reckons Labour are getting 2nd due to metropolitan strength.
    We'll see about that. Labour could do very badly in places like Kent and Southampton.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,173
    It would surprise me if the tories are second given that a lot of their more 'natural areas' had no local elections last week
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,693
    edited May 2014

    If the Euro elections were confined to the two cities that compete in the Boat Race then Ukip would be nowhere.

    Yawn.

    Quite. What sort of a comment is that? If my Auntie had b*llocks, she'd be my Uncle.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    AndyJS said:

    Kellner: Greens to beat LDs.

    Yippee!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406

    If the Euro elections were confined to the two cities that compete in the Boat Race then Ukip would be nowhere.

    Return to rotten boroughs Mike ?
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,779
    SeanT said:

    Speedy said:

    OGH has lost pride and money tonight.

    Our Genial Host looks like a total dork, and a loser. Sorry. But there it is. He just lacks judgement, and gets too emotional - like many - when it comes to UKIP.

    However he is a big enough guy to admit the facts, when he gets it wrong.
    Ogh and dan hodges, both lose their judgement when it comes to ukip
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    If the Euro elections were confined to the two cities that compete in the Boat Race then Ukip would be nowhere.

    Of course Oxford and Cambridge universities had their own MPs until 1950. Clement Atlee decided to get rid of them.
  • I take Peter Kellner's point about urban areas yet to come in but he included in that Newcastle.. That's in the North East and already counted..
This discussion has been closed.