I really hope that this is the last ultra liberal candidate that the Dems run. They need to swing back into the centre, drop all of the woke nonsense, drop all of the anti-Israel sentiment, drop all of the drug and crime decriminalisation and become a serious party again. They won back the House so the votes are there, Harris was just a shit candidate.
I've generally kept my opinions to myself this time for fear of being attacked on here by certain posters but I feel confident enough to say now that Harris should never have been handed the coronation victory. I was uneasy about it at the time and now it's clear that the decision has backfired.
Walz was a terrible fucking pick too, again I said it at the time but then decided to keep my opinions to myself because any negativity about the Dem ticket was met with hostility from certain posters about being a Trump shill which clearly I'm not.
The Dems need to have a serious inquest into how they've won the house back but lost people to split votes on the presidency. There will be hundreds of thousands that voted Dem for the House and Trump for POTUS and the strategists just seemed to be nowhere on this. They've ultimately got high on their own supply.
I slept through the action but have to say that I am cautiously optimistic this morning. As much as people say that the situation will be catastrophic for Ukraine I don't believe it, the situation looks catastrophic to me at the moment and my instinct is that it is more likely that a solution will be found with Trump as president. I have been posting about this for a year or so, and no one has provided me with any persuasive analysis that demonstrates the existing trajectory leads to anything other than a very slow, gradual and expensive defeat. Instead the discussion about this is largely just a stream of propoganda, which is quite sad really.
The concern that I have is that European countries failed to foresee the election of Trump despite all the signs pointing that way, which has created an avoidable diplomatic problem. Why did politicians project all their hopes in a democrat victory with such a weak candidate and a weak team and a track record of decline, disinterest and failure? How is Starmer going to deal with this given that the Labour party have created its own conflict with Trump and Musk? Can things be resolved going forward in a context where so many of its MP's and supporters are likely to be irreconcilable to the outcome of the US election? Where do they think they will look instead?
I think you have to just be hopeful that things work out.
Other than the new troll, there’s no one on here that doesn’t want peace and prosperity for Ukraine. And even more so, a stable and lasting security for the rest of Europe. What is most sad is that it has become impossible to even question here whether the policy actions of the last 24 months are the best ones for achieving these goals.
A more active effort to positively end the war in Ukraine’s favour was not on the ballot last night. And that is certainly not supported by Old Europe. Which means you have to decide which is better. An ongoing attritional war, gradually sucking in Axis powers as direct participants? Or a forced and fragile freezing of the conflict.
The last month has seen the first military incursion into Europe by an Asian military since Ghengis Khan. And this White House didn’t think that even worthy of comment (nor have most here).
Let’s all pray it works out for the best. And that our (and all EU) governments ramp up the conventional deterrent.
The Harris campaign sucked. If all you have is calling your opponent a fascist , you don’t have much. I completely missed the big theme attracting voters to her. Walz was a dead weight.
I think virtually everyone did on here. The shilling for Harris was off the charts, as was the sneering at Trump or Trump supporters, and massively affected the betting.
Anyone who posted anything like a pro Trump analysis was shouted down or accused of being a Trump supporter.
Focused far too much on the man rather than the ball.
It's perfectly possible to post pro-Trump stuff and maintain the vestiges of being neutral. They did not.
It is particularly egregious amongst those who fly the Ukrainian flag as their avatar - a country their shilling has betrayed.
Absolute bollocks.
You were one of the worst offenders.
I would suggest you wait and see to what extent Trump betrays Ukraine before you start your gloating and vendettas.
I see no reason at present to change my view that he will be disastrous for world security in general and Ukraine in particular.
I agree on Ukraine but, again, you fall into the trap of insinuating anyone who might go for Trump must be a secret Putinista admirer of him, who must be condemned.
It's this sort of shit that silenced or suppressed voices on here and has cost a lot of people money tonight.
Shame on you.
Except I have made absolutely no claim like that either in the post you respond to or at any other time. Indeed you seem to have forgotten I wrote an entire article on here on the understandable economic and social reasons why people vote for Trump.
If your arguments are reduced to simply lying about what people have said then perhaps you are the one who should be ashamed.
As the 'politics guy' I anticipate a lot of messages in a few hours from acquaintances who want an explanation and didn't hear me when I said it was super close.
And probably a cheerful message from one who seems to think I'm a Trump fan.
I really hope that this is the last ultra liberal candidate that the Dems run. They need to swing back into the centre, drop all of the woke nonsense, drop all of the anti-Israel sentiment, drop all of the drug and crime decriminalisation and become a serious party again. They won back the House so the votes are there, Harris was just a shit candidate.
I've generally kept my opinions to myself this time for fear of being attacked on here by certain posters but I feel confident enough to say now that Harris should never have been handed the coronation victory. I was uneasy about it at the time and now it's clear that the decision has backfired.
Walz was a terrible fucking pick too, again I said it at the time but then decided to keep my opinions to myself because any negativity about the Dem ticket was met with hostility from certain posters about being a Trump shill which clearly I'm not.
The Dems need to have a serious inquest into how they've won the house back but lost people to split votes on the presidency. There will be hundreds of thousands that voted Dem for the House and Trump for POTUS and the strategists just seemed to be nowhere on this. They've ultimately got high on their own supply.
Example: did they really say this during the campaign? I still can't believe they actually did.
"In outreach to Black men, Harris to vow to legalize weed"
I really hope that this is the last ultra liberal candidate that the Dems run. They need to swing back into the centre, drop all of the woke nonsense, drop all of the anti-Israel sentiment, drop all of the drug and crime decriminalisation and become a serious party again. They won back the House so the votes are there, Harris was just a shit candidate.
I've generally kept my opinions to myself this time for fear of being attacked on here by certain posters but I feel confident enough to say now that Harris should never have been handed the coronation victory. I was uneasy about it at the time and now it's clear that the decision has backfired.
Walz was a terrible fucking pick too, again I said it at the time but then decided to keep my opinions to myself because any negativity about the Dem ticket was met with hostility from certain posters about being a Trump shill which clearly I'm not.
The Dems need to have a serious inquest into how they've won the house back but lost people to split votes on the presidency. There will be hundreds of thousands that voted Dem for the House and Trump for POTUS and the strategists just seemed to be nowhere on this. They've ultimately got high on their own supply.
I think the coronation was the only practical way to avoid an internal bloodbath given the time they had left. In part as no way Harris would have given way to someone quietly.
But clearly she didn't meet the challenge and they need to ruthlessly figure out how they can.
As expected, and as predicted by most on here as well as the betting markets.
Note that winning the election doesn’t make Trump any less of a narcissistic monster. Let’s hope he’s too far gone into mental decline to do any real damage.
I really hope that this is the last ultra liberal candidate that the Dems run. They need to swing back into the centre, drop all of the woke nonsense, drop all of the anti-Israel sentiment, drop all of the drug and crime decriminalisation and become a serious party again. They won back the House so the votes are there, Harris was just a shit candidate.
I've generally kept my opinions to myself this time for fear of being attacked on here by certain posters but I feel confident enough to say now that Harris should never have been handed the coronation victory. I was uneasy about it at the time and now it's clear that the decision has backfired.
Walz was a terrible fucking pick too, again I said it at the time but then decided to keep my opinions to myself because any negativity about the Dem ticket was met with hostility from certain posters about being a Trump shill which clearly I'm not.
The Dems need to have a serious inquest into how they've won the house back but lost people to split votes on the presidency. There will be hundreds of thousands that voted Dem for the House and Trump for POTUS and the strategists just seemed to be nowhere on this. They've ultimately got high on their own supply.
The Dems have moved so far left that it represents the post-modernist madcap left and normal Americans have noticed.
I remember many years ago it was said that the States was more right wing in general, and the Dem Party was like the Conservatives over here.
I really hope that this is the last ultra liberal candidate that the Dems run. They need to swing back into the centre, drop all of the woke nonsense, drop all of the anti-Israel sentiment, drop all of the drug and crime decriminalisation and become a serious party again. They won back the House so the votes are there, Harris was just a shit candidate.
I've generally kept my opinions to myself this time for fear of being attacked on here by certain posters but I feel confident enough to say now that Harris should never have been handed the coronation victory. I was uneasy about it at the time and now it's clear that the decision has backfired.
Walz was a terrible fucking pick too, again I said it at the time but then decided to keep my opinions to myself because any negativity about the Dem ticket was met with hostility from certain posters about being a Trump shill which clearly I'm not.
The Dems need to have a serious inquest into how they've won the house back but lost people to split votes on the presidency. There will be hundreds of thousands that voted Dem for the House and Trump for POTUS and the strategists just seemed to be nowhere on this. They've ultimately got high on their own supply.
Example: did they really say this during the campaign? I still can't believe they actually did.
"In outreach to Black men, Harris to vow to legalize weed"
And Trump Jr reckoned black men would like his dad more because he'd been arrested. Some weird choices all around, though legalising weed in general without pitching it as a racial appeal might have been better
As expected, and as predicted by most on here as well as the betting markets.
Note that winning the election doesn’t make Trump any less of a narcissistic monster. Let’s hope he’s too far gone into mental decline to do any real damage.
As expected, and as predicted by most on here as well as the betting markets.
Note that winning the election doesn’t make Trump any less of a narcissistic monster. Let’s hope he’s too far gone into mental decline to do any real damage.
I am assuming that the Trump victory we're now all expecting is down to the economy. There are a range of different factors in play as well, obviously, but in this crucial respect it's exactly like what happened in this country - too many losers from the status quo, punishing the incumbent party. Obviously there hasn't been the kind of dramatic shift in levels of support that we saw earlier in the year simply because the American political system is very different and the electorate is so much more polarised, but all the same.
The main implication of this result for this country ought to be the realisation that The West as a bloc isn't a thing and Britain should look to its own defences, but that won't happen in any meaningful way because the Government lacks the will to find and allocate the required resources. So, no change here.
Trump getting 37% in Chicago is the biggest shock of the night IMO. 30% of the population of the city is black, 10% is mixed race, 16% other. Trump must have had significant support from those communities.
I am assuming that the Trump victory we're now all expecting is down to the economy. There are a range of different factors in play as well, obviously, but in this crucial respect it's exactly like what happened in this country - too many losers from the status quo, punishing the incumbent party. Obviously there hasn't been the kind of dramatic shift in levels of support that we saw earlier in the year simply because the American political system is very different and the electorate is so much more polarised, but all the same.
The main implication of this result for this country ought to be the realisation that The West as a bloc isn't a thing and Britain should look to its own defences, but that won't happen in any meaningful way because the Government lacks the will to find and allocate the required resources. So, no change here.
How about we stop giving all the money to feckin train drivers and buy some more cruise missiles!
Clearly in the west there are only two things that matter in elections currently; the economy and immigration.
Nothing else matters. Not “feels” or “rights” or foreign issues. Character doesn’t even really matter anymore. There were people who seriously believed that the abortion issue would result in a tide of all women voting for Harris/against Trump.
None of these things matter to the absolute vast majority who don’t blog, write newspaper columns or opine on tv or radio.
People just have gut instincts - effectively the same instincts our pre-historic ancestors had, feed your family and keep them safe from “outsiders”.
AP: "Chicago has spent more than $300 million to provide aid to thousands of new migrants. The speed with which these funds were marshaled has prompted Black Chicagoans to ask the city to do more for their communities that have faced decades of neglect."
I really hope that this is the last ultra liberal candidate that the Dems run. They need to swing back into the centre, drop all of the woke nonsense, drop all of the anti-Israel sentiment, drop all of the drug and crime decriminalisation and become a serious party again. They won back the House so the votes are there, Harris was just a shit candidate.
I've generally kept my opinions to myself this time for fear of being attacked on here by certain posters but I feel confident enough to say now that Harris should never have been handed the coronation victory. I was uneasy about it at the time and now it's clear that the decision has backfired.
Walz was a terrible fucking pick too, again I said it at the time but then decided to keep my opinions to myself because any negativity about the Dem ticket was met with hostility from certain posters about being a Trump shill which clearly I'm not.
The Dems need to have a serious inquest into how they've won the house back but lost people to split votes on the presidency. There will be hundreds of thousands that voted Dem for the House and Trump for POTUS and the strategists just seemed to be nowhere on this. They've ultimately got high on their own supply.
Will the Democrats win the House? It's entirely possible that Trump will have two years of untrammelled power.
AP: "Chicago has spent more than $300 million to provide aid to thousands of new migrants. The speed with which these funds were marshaled has prompted Black Chicagoans to ask the city to do more for their communities that have faced decades of neglect."
I mentioned Peter Santenello videos earlier. He did some good videos from Chiacgo not that long ago. They were rather eye opening.
So much for the legendary accuracy of the Selzer polling. Ooft.
Who cares? Iowa has what – four ECVs? Unless people bet on that state, Iowa is nothing.
The swing in Iowa towards Trump looks to be about the same as the swing towards Trump in the other MidWest states - Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. If the poll had been broadly accurate then it wouldn't have just been a case of Iowa's electoral votes.
This was a change election between an unelectable leader and an unelectable party. I had it as 50/50 but Americans have voted for the former to a degree that I never expected.
Annoyingly, I had two long-shot bets on this election, Trump to win popular vote and to win Michigan. I then went and spoilt it with a bunch of Harris votes cus the betting markets looked rigged.
I really hope that this is the last ultra liberal candidate that the Dems run. They need to swing back into the centre, drop all of the woke nonsense, drop all of the anti-Israel sentiment, drop all of the drug and crime decriminalisation and become a serious party again. They won back the House so the votes are there, Harris was just a shit candidate.
I've generally kept my opinions to myself this time for fear of being attacked on here by certain posters but I feel confident enough to say now that Harris should never have been handed the coronation victory. I was uneasy about it at the time and now it's clear that the decision has backfired.
Walz was a terrible fucking pick too, again I said it at the time but then decided to keep my opinions to myself because any negativity about the Dem ticket was met with hostility from certain posters about being a Trump shill which clearly I'm not.
The Dems need to have a serious inquest into how they've won the house back but lost people to split votes on the presidency. There will be hundreds of thousands that voted Dem for the House and Trump for POTUS and the strategists just seemed to be nowhere on this. They've ultimately got high on their own supply.
Obama was seen as liberal too though. I feel confident Harris improved on where Biden would have got to... I just think maybe the memories of inflation hurt the Dems too much.
In a way Trump's flamboyant offensiveness on a personal level may make it harder for many Democrats to reflect and rebuild. They obviously won't want to let up on criticising him but it coukd distract from figuring out where they went wrong.
As expected, and as predicted by most on here as well as the betting markets.
Note that winning the election doesn’t make Trump any less of a narcissistic monster. Let’s hope he’s too far gone into mental decline to do any real damage.
Was it predicted by most on here??
Yes, repeatedly. I think some mistake dislike of Trump (of which there has, correctly, been much) and expectation he would lose.
Anyway, as some are saying perhaps this event might finally convince us in Europe that America is a foreign country with different priorities, different morals and a different conception of the word order than us. An important trading partner but just different - like India or Brazil. Time for Europe to step up and start properly re-arming.
Now rest is politics is now making it is Trans issue....especially among black people...wot lost it...shakes head.
Quote I just saw on Twitter but can’t find again. “Democrats are just realising that women buy eggs and bread more often than they have abortions”.
Yes, I think voters hate inflation. The Dems possibly should have said Trump policies will increase prices...
It was worse than that, the Dem message was that inflation is falling yay aren’t we good, while everyone could see that their weekly shopping basket is 50% more expensive than it was four years ago.
Back! Well shit in a bag and punch it. Its January 1933.
Was hyperbole in fashion then?
It would seem! Germany voted in Hitler knowing what he was. America is voting in Trump knowing what he is. And in any election you always get the correct result because you get what you vote for. And America has voted for Gilead. Up and down the ticket it appears.
Whilst this is a massive risk for Europe, perhaps it is also an opportunity. An open door policy to welcome those fleeing fascism.
Now rest is politics is now making it is Trans issue....especially among black people...wot lost it...shakes head.
Quote I just saw on Twitter but can’t find again. “Democrats are just realising that women buy eggs and bread more often than they have abortions”.
Yes, I think voters hate inflation. The Dems possibly should have said Trump policies will increase prices...
It was worse than that, the Dem message was that inflation is falling yay aren’t we good, while everyone could see that their weekly shopping basket is 50% more expensive than it was four years ago.
Well inflation did fall - you've got to try to find the positives! But you're right that this message wasn't going to be enough.
Back! Well shit in a bag and punch it. Its January 1933.
Was hyperbole in fashion then?
It would seem! Germany voted in Hitler knowing what he was. America is voting in Trump knowing what he is. And in any election you always get the correct result because you get what you vote for. And America has voted for Gilead. Up and down the ticket it appears.
Whilst this is a massive risk for Europe, perhaps it is also an opportunity. An open door policy to welcome those fleeing fascism.
George Santos says he would be honoured to accept a job from Trump if offered. Channel 4.
Trump doesn't need the likes of Santilos in his ranks, he has plenty of loyalists who aren't awaiting criminal sentencing.
Trump's own sentencing in a few weeks I imagine will be probation now, if the judge doesn't just agree with Trump's lawyers to set aside the conviction.
I think this is the ultimate "get woke, go broke" example. The backlash to wokeism has been building up for the last two years as people want companies and politicians to concentrate on the stuff that really matters. Kamala was the woke candidate as @HYUFD pointed out over and over, she's been brushed aside by the same cultural phenomenon that has Hollywood and the gaming industry under siege.
Back! Well shit in a bag and punch it. Its January 1933.
Was hyperbole in fashion then?
It would seem! Germany voted in Hitler knowing what he was. America is voting in Trump knowing what he is. And in any election you always get the correct result because you get what you vote for. And America has voted for Gilead. Up and down the ticket it appears.
Whilst this is a massive risk for Europe, perhaps it is also an opportunity. An open door policy to welcome those fleeing fascism.
Because people *will* flee.
I think you're getting carried away here...
I am? Perhaps. Lets see how this plays out shall we. There will be a significant number of people very scared tonight who can cite with evidence what the GOP are doing to threaten their lives. Not your life, so calling it out is getting carried away. But its happening.
Impressively, I got every one of the four states I bet on wrong.
I got every one of the thirteen states I bet on wrong! Possibly not Nevada and Arizona. Down £2K. That's nothing compared with the heartache for Zelensky
Back! Well shit in a bag and punch it. Its January 1933.
Was hyperbole in fashion then?
It would seem! Germany voted in Hitler knowing what he was. America is voting in Trump knowing what he is. And in any election you always get the correct result because you get what you vote for. And America has voted for Gilead. Up and down the ticket it appears.
Whilst this is a massive risk for Europe, perhaps it is also an opportunity. An open door policy to welcome those fleeing fascism.
Because people *will* flee.
That depends how quickly change happens. People react more readily to rapid change; less so to slow change. Back on the night in 2016, I posited that the progress towards liberalism would be reversed by Trump, but slowly, over time. And that's what we've seen, with many of the changes occurring during his successor's term, because of changes Trump made to things like the supreme court.
My current thinking is that Trump is a very different man from eight years ago. He is older, more infirm, and filled with bitterness. I reckon he will want vengeance, and quickly. He has also been president before, so he knows the processes and will be able to hit the ground running. Well, staggering, at least.
The people crowing about the 'death of wokeism' may be right. What they're really crowing about is the death of liberalism. And they should ask what that means for them.
Impressively, I got every one of the four states I bet on wrong.
I got every one of the thirteen states I bet on wrong! Possibly not Nevada and Arizona. Down £2K. That's nothing compared with the heartache for Zelensky
I'm down maybe £400. Given that I normally bet much more election time, but mostly swerved this one, I've got off lightly.
Back! Well shit in a bag and punch it. Its January 1933.
Was hyperbole in fashion then?
It would seem! Germany voted in Hitler knowing what he was. America is voting in Trump knowing what he is. And in any election you always get the correct result because you get what you vote for. And America has voted for Gilead. Up and down the ticket it appears.
Whilst this is a massive risk for Europe, perhaps it is also an opportunity. An open door policy to welcome those fleeing fascism.
Because people *will* flee.
I think you're getting carried away here...
My two positives: 1) This will be a boon to british universities for sure.... hoovering up the international students avoiding the US. 2) yet another headwind to the brexit nightmare, pushing britain closer to europe.
Mr. Barnesian, ouch. I'm only playing with dinky sums, but will still squeak ahead just about thanks to an early tip on Harris at 15, hedged when she stood.
While I'm not glad about how things are unfolding, if Trump wins clearly that will at least avoid a knife-edge battle/civil war.
Pundits on 5 Live baffled that people word vote for "34 time convicted felon Donald Trump"...
It’s happened repeatedly elsewhere. Berlusconi and Netanyahu show the way.
Yep. People don't like lawfare as a political tactic, apparently.
Or people will turn a blind eye to criminality so long as its by their guy.
That too to an extent, but it looks very much like it's not just those who voted Trump in 2020 who didn't like it. After all, every time a Democrat mentioned the 24 felony convictions it reminded people that for any other person in the US those would have been charged as misdemeanors.
I am assuming that the Trump victory we're now all expecting is down to the economy. There are a range of different factors in play as well, obviously, but in this crucial respect it's exactly like what happened in this country - too many losers from the status quo, punishing the incumbent party. Obviously there hasn't been the kind of dramatic shift in levels of support that we saw earlier in the year simply because the American political system is very different and the electorate is so much more polarised, but all the same.
The main implication of this result for this country ought to be the realisation that The West as a bloc isn't a thing and Britain should look to its own defences, but that won't happen in any meaningful way because the Government lacks the will to find and allocate the required resources. So, no change here.
How about we stop giving all the money to feckin train drivers and buy some more cruise missiles!
The money that has been allocated to deal with public sector pay disputes is comparatively small beer and has been well spent. The big issue, which the previous Government did nothing to confront and this one doesn't want to talk about either because it is too bloody difficult, is the demographic trap and the dependency ratio. There's no route to a healthy and sustainable economy that doesn't involve a substantial redistribution of resources from the retired to workers. Improving the health of the average citizen, by shifting priorities in healthcare and especially by using policy to try to force down the number of lumbering fatties in the land is also relevant, but fundamentally the country can afford neither to keep the (better off) elderly in the style to which they have become accustomed - there are too bloody many of them - nor to continue to leave all the wealth locked away in their houses untouched.
Until the collective realisation dawns that the country has to respond meaningfully to the combined burden of advancing age, ill health, sedentary lifestyles and obesity that is crushing it to death, we will continue to circle the plughole. And let's just say that I'm not exactly brimming with confidence that this is going to happen.
Now rest is politics is now making it is Trans issue....especially among black people...wot lost it...shakes head.
Quote I just saw on Twitter but can’t find again. “Democrats are just realising that women buy eggs and bread more often than they have abortions”.
Yes, I think voters hate inflation. The Dems possibly should have said Trump policies will increase prices...
It was worse than that, the Dem message was that inflation is falling yay aren’t we good, while everyone could see that their weekly shopping basket is 50% more expensive than it was four years ago.
Trump' policies are all inflationary.. So I am not buying the economy argument... it is tribal identity politics. People are willing to take a hit to their economy for their identity.
You don't absolutely HAVE to have a criminal conviction to appear on the Channel 4 US election night programme, but it sure does help. I mean, WTAF. Michael Cohen. Stormy Daniels and now George Santos. Is the guest booker having a laugh? Next up, Harvey Weinstein."
You don't absolutely HAVE to have a criminal conviction to appear on the Channel 4 US election night programme, but it sure does help. I mean, WTAF. Michael Cohen. Stormy Daniels and now George Santos. Is the guest booker having a laugh? Next up, Harvey Weinstein."
Euro is down against most currencies, including GBP. That’s the 10% tariff effect, but it implies (wrongly) that the UK might not face the same tariffs. They’ll be across the board, and I expect we will join in the retaliatory measures too.
Probably the biggest trade war to come since the 1980s.
Now rest is politics is now making it is Trans issue....especially among black people...wot lost it...shakes head.
Quote I just saw on Twitter but can’t find again. “Democrats are just realising that women buy eggs and bread more often than they have abortions”.
Yes, I think voters hate inflation. The Dems possibly should have said Trump policies will increase prices...
It was worse than that, the Dem message was that inflation is falling yay aren’t we good, while everyone could see that their weekly shopping basket is 50% more expensive than it was four years ago.
Trump' policies are all inflationary.. So I am not buying the economy argument... it is tribal identity politics. People are willing to take a hit to their economy for their identity.
Clearly in the west there are only two things that matter in elections currently; the economy and immigration.
Nothing else matters. Not “feels” or “rights” or foreign issues. Character doesn’t even really matter anymore. There were people who seriously believed that the abortion issue would result in a tide of all women voting for Harris/against Trump.
None of these things matter to the absolute vast majority who don’t blog, write newspaper columns or opine on tv or radio.
People just have gut instincts - effectively the same instincts our pre-historic ancestors had, feed your family and keep them safe from “outsiders”.
There's always a temptation to look for single causes when for something like this multiple factors will have been in play. Inflation and immigration, certainly, yes, but also Biden's failures in Kabul and Ukraine did damage to Democrats' credibility as the grown ups who could be relied on to look after things. And having Biden pull out late in the election campaign, so that the Democrats didn't have a contest to replace him was also poor.
If Biden had decided not to run for a second term, and the Democrats had a normal primary campaign to replace him, then perhaps Harris would still have been the nominee, and perhaps the Democrats would still have lost the election, but I think there's a chance that voters would have chosen a different nominee, and even if it had been Harris I think it would have looked better to have had a contest.
I might have said rather cynically back in 2020 that Harris looked like a poison pill pick for vice President. She had run a poor primary campaign, and so as VP she would make it harder to force Biden to step aside, because she wasn't a winning pick herself. That certainly seems to have been a factor. I think Biden would be wrong to think this, but he's probably wondering if he might have had a better shot at winning then Harris did.
Euro is down against most currencies, including GBP. That’s the 10% tariff effect, but it implies (wrongly) that the UK might not face the same tariffs. They’ll be across the board, and I expect we will join in the retaliatory measures too.
Probably the biggest trade war to come since the 1980s.
The recent budget doesn't have a massive amount wiggle room for rising prices....
Back! Well shit in a bag and punch it. Its January 1933.
Was hyperbole in fashion then?
It would seem! Germany voted in Hitler knowing what he was. America is voting in Trump knowing what he is. And in any election you always get the correct result because you get what you vote for. And America has voted for Gilead. Up and down the ticket it appears.
Whilst this is a massive risk for Europe, perhaps it is also an opportunity. An open door policy to welcome those fleeing fascism.
Because people *will* flee.
That depends how quickly change happens. People react more readily to rapid change; less so to slow change. Back on the night in 2016, I posited that the progress towards liberalism would be reversed by Trump, but slowly, over time. And that's what we've seen, with many of the changes occurring during his successor's term, because of changes Trump made to things like the supreme court.
My current thinking is that Trump is a very different man from eight years ago. He is older, more infirm, and filled with bitterness. I reckon he will want vengeance, and quickly. He has also been president before, so he knows the processes and will be able to hit the ground running. Well, staggering, at least.
The people crowing about the 'death of wokeism' may be right. What they're really crowing about is the death of liberalism. And they should ask what that means for them.
Wokeism does not equate to liberalism. A lot of “wokeism” is far from liberalism and invites division and sectarianism and “othering”, precisely the things that liberalism is against.
If “Wokeism” dies then it might allow liberalism to grow again without the extremism and pious hectoring at best, dangerous illiberal ideologies at worst.
Now rest is politics is now making it is Trans issue....especially among black people...wot lost it...shakes head.
Quote I just saw on Twitter but can’t find again. “Democrats are just realising that women buy eggs and bread more often than they have abortions”.
Yes, I think voters hate inflation. The Dems possibly should have said Trump policies will increase prices...
It was worse than that, the Dem message was that inflation is falling yay aren’t we good, while everyone could see that their weekly shopping basket is 50% more expensive than it was four years ago.
Trump' policies are all inflationary.. So I am not buying the economy argument... it is tribal identity politics. People are willing to take a hit to their economy for their identity.
Euro is down against most currencies, including GBP. That’s the 10% tariff effect, but it implies (wrongly) that the UK might not face the same tariffs. They’ll be across the board, and I expect we will join in the retaliatory measures too.
Probably the biggest trade war to come since the 1980s.
Maybe we can send Nige to negotiate an exception for the UK.
I really hope that this is the last ultra liberal candidate that the Dems run. They need to swing back into the centre, drop all of the woke nonsense, drop all of the anti-Israel sentiment, drop all of the drug and crime decriminalisation and become a serious party again. They won back the House so the votes are there, Harris was just a shit candidate.
I've generally kept my opinions to myself this time for fear of being attacked on here by certain posters but I feel confident enough to say now that Harris should never have been handed the coronation victory. I was uneasy about it at the time and now it's clear that the decision has backfired.
Walz was a terrible fucking pick too, again I said it at the time but then decided to keep my opinions to myself because any negativity about the Dem ticket was met with hostility from certain posters about being a Trump shill which clearly I'm not.
The Dems need to have a serious inquest into how they've won the house back but lost people to split votes on the presidency. There will be hundreds of thousands that voted Dem for the House and Trump for POTUS and the strategists just seemed to be nowhere on this. They've ultimately got high on their own supply.
Example: did they really say this during the campaign? I still can't believe they actually did.
"In outreach to Black men, Harris to vow to legalize weed"
Back! Well shit in a bag and punch it. Its January 1933.
Was hyperbole in fashion then?
It would seem! Germany voted in Hitler knowing what he was. America is voting in Trump knowing what he is. And in any election you always get the correct result because you get what you vote for. And America has voted for Gilead. Up and down the ticket it appears.
Whilst this is a massive risk for Europe, perhaps it is also an opportunity. An open door policy to welcome those fleeing fascism.
Because people *will* flee.
That depends how quickly change happens. People react more readily to rapid change; less so to slow change. Back on the night in 2016, I posited that the progress towards liberalism would be reversed by Trump, but slowly, over time. And that's what we've seen, with many of the changes occurring during his successor's term, because of changes Trump made to things like the supreme court.
My current thinking is that Trump is a very different man from eight years ago. He is older, more infirm, and filled with bitterness. I reckon he will want vengeance, and quickly. He has also been president before, so he knows the processes and will be able to hit the ground running. Well, staggering, at least.
The people crowing about the 'death of wokeism' may be right. What they're really crowing about is the death of liberalism. And they should ask what that means for them.
We will see how it plays out. Trump has always been a figurehead rather than a dictator, a personality cult leader delighted with the role as long as his cult does all the work.
So the wider question is what do all of the people around him want? There are plenty of signs of what they want - and if they control the Presidency, the House and the Courts? We don't need to debate.
I'm a curious observer and student of politics. It isn't my rights being removed. It isn't my life being threatened. But it appears that people *who have had their rights subjugated* are voting for more subjugation. Which is truly fascinating!
Trump really needs to go after his enemies hard, now
He’s the most powerful man in the world and will be for four years. He’s learned from 2016 that he can’t fuck around
Woke must be destroyed. Cancel all D.E.I. initiatives. Jail everyone that tried to jail him. Hi after the lab leak deniers - jail them too. Think about closing down Harvard and the New York Times. Make it compulsory to eat veal and foie gras for breakfast
And deport anyone who complains and deport them to Haiti but give them a cat to keep them going, thereby saving America’s birdlife. NO MORE PETS
I think I'm up a couple of hundred quid. Oh what could have been with a Harris win but I never wanted to take the red I had on Trump back in 2020 this time round. Objectively being heavier on Harris I still think was correct. Structurally there doesn't seem to be too much of a problem for the Democrats, they'll only be a couple of % away from the presidency in 28. They need to sort their shit in the cities though
Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot · 8m And with that, Democrats (or their allies) have failed to flip any GOP seats in the Senate, which means they can no longer win control. Republicans have flipped the Senate.
Euro is down against most currencies, including GBP. That’s the 10% tariff effect, but it implies (wrongly) that the UK might not face the same tariffs. They’ll be across the board, and I expect we will join in the retaliatory measures too.
Probably the biggest trade war to come since the 1980s.
Maybe we can send Nige to negotiate an exception for the UK.
Whether or not he actually introduces this tariff policy I think will define his presidency, along with the upcoming Munich conference with Putin.
Many in the GOP understand what it means for consumer prices, but this is a presidential prerogative not something that has to go through congress.
The interplay with corporation tax makes it a difficult equation. If a Republican controlled congress cuts CT further while the executive introduces punitive import substitution policies then that’s bad news for everyone else but the US domestic market is large enough that they can go keto on their own fat stores for a few years.
Comments
I've generally kept my opinions to myself this time for fear of being attacked on here by certain posters but I feel confident enough to say now that Harris should never have been handed the coronation victory. I was uneasy about it at the time and now it's clear that the decision has backfired.
Walz was a terrible fucking pick too, again I said it at the time but then decided to keep my opinions to myself because any negativity about the Dem ticket was met with hostility from certain posters about being a Trump shill which clearly I'm not.
The Dems need to have a serious inquest into how they've won the house back but lost people to split votes on the presidency. There will be hundreds of thousands that voted Dem for the House and Trump for POTUS and the strategists just seemed to be nowhere on this. They've ultimately got high on their own supply.
is that it has become impossible to even question here whether the policy actions of the last 24 months are the best ones for achieving these goals.
A more active effort to positively end the war in Ukraine’s favour was not on the ballot last night. And that is certainly not supported by Old Europe. Which means you have to decide which is better. An ongoing attritional war, gradually sucking in Axis powers as direct participants? Or a forced and fragile freezing of the conflict.
The last month has seen the first military incursion into Europe by an Asian military since Ghengis Khan. And this White House didn’t think that even worthy of comment (nor have most here).
Let’s all pray it works out for the best. And that our (and all EU) governments ramp up the conventional deterrent.
If your arguments are reduced to simply lying about what people have said then perhaps you are the one who should be ashamed.
And probably a cheerful message from one who seems to think I'm a Trump fan.
CNN has 3 Rep gains so far (all in NC). Zero Dem gains.
https://edition.cnn.com/election/2024/results/house?election-data-id=2024-HG&election-painting-mode=projection-with-lead&filter-key-races=false&filter-flipped=false&filter-remaining=false
"In outreach to Black men, Harris to vow to legalize weed"
https://www.npr.org/2024/10/13/nx-s1-5151968/harris-weed-crypto
But clearly she didn't meet the challenge and they need to ruthlessly figure out how they can.
Trump said to be preparing to move from Mar-a-Lago to his rally close by.
CNN
https://x.com/ally_sammarco/status/1854008728673988913
- White men without college degrees are going to ruin this country
- actually, they built the country
- No, slaves did
As expected, and as predicted by most on here as well as the betting markets.
Note that winning the election doesn’t make Trump any less of a narcissistic monster. Let’s hope he’s too far gone into mental decline to do any real damage.
I remember many years ago it was said that the States was more right wing in general, and the Dem Party was like the Conservatives over here.
I'm angry and upset this morning, like many.
The reason NC and GA have been called is there are far fewer votes left to count than at the same time in 2020.
GA vote count now 5.2m (2020 total vote 5.0m).
So clear there isn't much left.
And total is as we forecast a couple of hours ago.
Neil trolling Rory
The main implication of this result for this country ought to be the realisation that The West as a bloc isn't a thing and Britain should look to its own defences, but that won't happen in any meaningful way because the Government lacks the will to find and allocate the required resources. So, no change here.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Chicago
Clearly in the west there are only two things that matter in elections currently; the economy and immigration.
Nothing else matters. Not “feels” or “rights” or foreign issues. Character doesn’t even really matter anymore. There were people who seriously believed that the abortion issue would result in a tide of all women voting for Harris/against Trump.
None of these things matter to the absolute vast majority who don’t blog, write newspaper columns or opine on tv or radio.
People just have gut instincts - effectively the same instincts our pre-historic ancestors had, feed your family and keep them safe from “outsiders”.
AP: "Chicago has spent more than $300 million to provide aid to thousands of new migrants. The speed with which these funds were marshaled has prompted Black Chicagoans to ask the city to do more for their communities that have faced decades of neglect."
Annoyingly, I had two long-shot bets on this election, Trump to win popular vote and to win Michigan. I then went and spoilt it with a bunch of Harris votes cus the betting markets looked rigged.
Anyway, as some are saying perhaps this event might finally convince us in Europe that America is a foreign country with different priorities, different morals and a different conception of the word order than us. An important trading partner but just different - like India or Brazil. Time for Europe to step up and start properly re-arming.
Firstly after 4 years Trump has gone whereas if he'd have lost he could have surfaced again. Secondly the Dems may now move back towards the centre.
Gotta look for positives even on this grim morning.
Whilst this is a massive risk for Europe, perhaps it is also an opportunity. An open door policy to welcome those fleeing fascism.
Because people *will* flee.
Queens 38%
Brooklyn 28%
Bronx 27%
Trump's own sentencing in a few weeks I imagine will be probation now, if the judge doesn't just agree with Trump's lawyers to set aside the conviction.
Impressively, I got every one of the four states I bet on wrong.
Feel very sorry for Ukrainians this morning.
My current thinking is that Trump is a very different man from eight years ago. He is older, more infirm, and filled with bitterness. I reckon he will want vengeance, and quickly. He has also been president before, so he knows the processes and will be able to hit the ground running. Well, staggering, at least.
The people crowing about the 'death of wokeism' may be right. What they're really crowing about is the death of liberalism. And they should ask what that means for them.
Should I be very depressed? Not looking good from first glance
How about the abortion votes? Not that those will matter - even if people voted to secure rights for women they won't last long.
While I'm not glad about how things are unfolding, if Trump wins clearly that will at least avoid a knife-edge battle/civil war.
Until the collective realisation dawns that the country has to respond meaningfully to the combined burden of advancing age, ill health, sedentary lifestyles and obesity that is crushing it to death, we will continue to circle the plughole. And let's just say that I'm not exactly brimming with confidence that this is going to happen.
So I am not buying the economy argument... it is tribal identity politics. People are willing to take a hit to their economy for their identity.
You don't absolutely HAVE to have a criminal conviction to appear on the Channel 4 US election night programme, but it sure does help. I mean, WTAF. Michael Cohen. Stormy Daniels and now George Santos. Is the guest booker having a laugh? Next up, Harvey Weinstein."
https://x.com/IainDale/status/1853955509897896348
Probably the biggest trade war to come since the 1980s.
If Biden had decided not to run for a second term, and the Democrats had a normal primary campaign to replace him, then perhaps Harris would still have been the nominee, and perhaps the Democrats would still have lost the election, but I think there's a chance that voters would have chosen a different nominee, and even if it had been Harris I think it would have looked better to have had a contest.
I might have said rather cynically back in 2020 that Harris looked like a poison pill pick for vice President. She had run a poor primary campaign, and so as VP she would make it harder to force Biden to step aside, because she wasn't a winning pick herself. That certainly seems to have been a factor. I think Biden would be wrong to think this, but he's probably wondering if he might have had a better shot at winning then Harris did.
If “Wokeism” dies then it might allow liberalism to grow again without the extremism and pious hectoring at best, dangerous illiberal ideologies at worst.
https://x.com/KamalaHarris/status/1845993766441644386
So the wider question is what do all of the people around him want? There are plenty of signs of what they want - and if they control the Presidency, the House and the Courts? We don't need to debate.
I'm a curious observer and student of politics. It isn't my rights being removed. It isn't my life being threatened. But it appears that people *who have had their rights subjugated* are voting for more subjugation. Which is truly fascinating!
He’s the most powerful man in the world and will be for four years. He’s learned from 2016 that he can’t fuck around
Woke must be destroyed. Cancel all D.E.I. initiatives. Jail everyone that tried to jail him. Hi after the lab leak deniers - jail them too. Think about closing down Harvard and the New York Times. Make it compulsory to eat veal and foie gras for breakfast
And deport anyone who complains and deport them to Haiti but give them a cat to keep them going, thereby saving America’s birdlife. NO MORE PETS
Structurally there doesn't seem to be too much of a problem for the Democrats, they'll only be a couple of % away from the presidency in 28. They need to sort their shit in the cities though
@baseballot
·
8m
And with that, Democrats (or their allies) have failed to flip any GOP seats in the Senate, which means they can no longer win control. Republicans have flipped the Senate.
Many in the GOP understand what it means for consumer prices, but this is a presidential prerogative not something that has to go through congress.
The interplay with corporation tax makes it a difficult equation. If a Republican controlled congress cuts CT further while the executive introduces punitive import substitution policies then that’s bad news for everyone else but the US domestic market is large enough that they can go keto on their own fat stores for a few years.
@baseballot
·
36m
ABC News projects that Trump will win Georgia. He's now taken both Southeastern swing states.
If Harris is going to win, it HAS to be via the Blue Wall now. And she currently trails in all three of those states.
https://x.com/baseballot
I see Kamala is in hiding while Donald is about to declare victory!