🧵Just before 2 p.m., an election observer noticed a panel on tabulators in Milwaukee's central count weren't properly closed. The panel that wasn't closed contains tabulators' on/off switches. They were supposed to have been locked in the morning
Milwaukee is going to recount every absentee ballot that had been counted because of this issue. They had already tabulated 30,000 ballots.
Have to say that if Harris wins against this background with the majority unhappy about the direction of the country and the state of the economy she will have performed a miracle.
🧵Just before 2 p.m., an election observer noticed a panel on tabulators in Milwaukee's central count weren't properly closed. The panel that wasn't closed contains tabulators' on/off switches. They were supposed to have been locked in the morning
Milwaukee is going to recount every absentee ballot that had been counted because of this issue. They had already tabulated 30,000 ballots.
It occurs to me that this is the 6th American presidential election pb.com has done, having been formed, IIRC, to have somewhere to discuss the 2004 election. Congrats again to OGH and team.
@NatashaC Congressman Seth Magaziner, of Rhode Island, tells me @LBC
- there's a "cautious optimism" among Democrats tonight and "It feels like the late momentum is on her side" - turnout seems high - Thinks it's "unlikely to be as close as the polls suggest"
"People were feeling better today than a week ago... [the polls] have turned around. The Harris campaign has a more robust and effective get out the vote campaign, it was incredible, they were knowing on 2,000 doors per minute in the state of Pennsylvania alone - the Trump campaign had nothing like that on the ground. We know it's a close race, but there's optimism, the momentum seems to have shifted in her direction, the ground operation is more robust"
"Turnout is looking high, high here in Rhode Island, closer to 2020 levels than 2016, and I'm hearing from the same in swing states, particularly in suburbs, Charlotte, Philadelphia, Detroit. I think that favours the Vice President"
Thanks. How have you decided on the state by state predictions (it looks like you have your biggest swing to Dem in Kansas and your biggest swing to Rep in NY)
Democrats have been fearful of losing the vote of Michigan’s large Arab American and Muslim American communities over the Biden-Harris administration’s response to Israel’s war on Gaza, and at a polling station in Dearborn there was some evidence that they were right to be concerned.
Although it was a small sample size, none of the Arab American voters the Guardian spoke to had voted for Harris
Guardian blog
Yes, that is a big worry. From the vox pops, Gaza seems to have driven quite a few Muslims and younger voters to Stein.
There was an Arab-American spokesperson onstage at one of the Trump rallies yesterday saying the community had swung behind Trump over Gaza.
Doesn't he say Biden and Harris haven't backed Netanyahu enough?
If it had been Biden, he would have got spanked....or if the GOP had picked a sensible, less divisive, candidate...as the dissatisfaction / angry numbers are incredibly high in the CNN poll.
My worst prediction of 2024 was that if Biden was the nominee, he would beat Trump.
I hadn’t quite anticipated DebateGate and all that flowed from it, but I could have anticipated the gaffes/decline and it becoming a prominent issue.
Mine was laying both Trump and Biden for the nomination, way back when. Made climbing back quite difficult.
Lean – just – to Harris: We think the race is very marginally lean Harris - 276 electoral college votes to 262 on a national vote share of lead 2.7%. We would assign a 55% probability of a Harris win at this stage.some text This is driven by wins across the Blue wall (Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania) The reason its “lean” Harris - and nothing stronger - is she’s losing all in the states which have less historical polling error and due to win in all the states that have had massive anti Republican polling (1-6%) last two cycles Only 0.7% swing towards the Republicans in swing states gives it to Trump. Last average error was 3.5 points and in 2016 it was 3.7 points. Harris could win bigger than people think: If our polls are correct - there exists a credible path to Harris winning bigger than Biden in 2020, she’s within touching distance in Georgia and North Carolina. If she takes this plus midwest she’s on course for 328 votes Harris was the rust belt candidate and weaker in the south during the campaign; that’s now reversing. Harris has been stronger in mid west and weaker in south all campaign - but in our polling this trend has actually been reversing past 2 weeks - stronger in Georgia and North Carolina and softening in mid west We are not convinced that the Mid West always moves as one: We are not super convinced that the mid west will move as one (State statistics from when they last didn’t move together) - we think PA is beginning tilting Democrat, but WI looks very close, and Michigan polling - safest in our estimates - prime candidate for a polling error The Democrat coalition looks a lot more Reagan-esque than before: The pattern of the election is that the Harris coalition will be whiter, richer, more educated and more female than previous Democrat coalitions. There will be some racial depolarisation - but it is modest vs the headlines (see our principal component analysis below) The Fundamentals favour Trump. If we weren’t looking at voting intention opinion polls - our prior would be a Trump win. Firstly the performance of incumbent governments, second Trump owns with material leads the top three issues. The side that overperforms on top issues normally wins. In the plus Harris column is the fact that she has superior favourable ratings in Mid West Early voting doesn’t provide any clarity: Early voting largely indicate a really close election - rather than blue wave. Michigan and Nevada look worse than current polls for Democrats, but other states look more in line with our estimates
Question - the pollsters who haven't been able to spot the underground surge of women (a) registering, (b) organising and, (c) voting Harris whether they're allowed to or not. Are they now picking these voters up and being told the truth when doing their "what voters think" polls? Or just going off what their husbands want?
The more fundamental issue - according to the guy in WATo earlier anyhow - is that apparently very few Americans are willing to respond to the pollsters (typically 2-3%, he said), raising huge questions about the representativeness of those who do.
Question - the pollsters who haven't been able to spot the underground surge of women (a) registering, (b) organising and, (c) voting Harris whether they're allowed to or not. Are they now picking these voters up and being told the truth when doing their "what voters think" polls? Or just going off what their husbands want?
I don’t understand the fixation with some wee election in America when there’s a much more important election in Central Buchan on Thursday.
Question - the pollsters who haven't been able to spot the underground surge of women (a) registering, (b) organising and, (c) voting Harris whether they're allowed to or not. Are they now picking these voters up and being told the truth when doing their "what voters think" polls? Or just going off what their husbands want?
I don’t understand the fixation with some wee election in America when there’s a much more important election in Central Buchan on Thursday.
Very weird. Also, Trump has really aged. Just looks like an old man.
It was silly when people tried to pretend Biden hadn't lost a step or two, and it's silly when Trump and his acolytes pretend he's as energetic and mentally agile as four years ago.
If people wanted to argue with either they were still the better choice, fine, I did that with Biden myself, but the denial of reality is off the charts.
On my simulations that's about right or even on the generous side. But I must admit I haven't modelled ME2 properly and I have a feeling if that changes hands the tie is quite a bit more likely because it makes it more realistic to get exactly 269 each.
Thanks. How have you decided on the state by state predictions (it looks like you have your biggest swing to Dem in Kansas and your biggest swing to Rep in NY)
Question - the pollsters who haven't been able to spot the underground surge of women (a) registering, (b) organising and, (c) voting Harris whether they're allowed to or not. Are they now picking these voters up and being told the truth when doing their "what voters think" polls? Or just going off what their husbands want?
I don’t understand the fixation with some wee election in America when there’s a much more important election in Central Buchan on Thursday.
One hour and five minutes until the polls start to close in Indiana and Kentucky.
That's a bit early isn't it?
It does seem mad that polls in the US close so early given how long voting takes
Isn't it just simple voter suppression? Restricting voting times does suppress voting. If you can only vote between 9am and 5pm; and you have an office job; unless you take one of your two days statutory holidays, you can't vote.
Have to say that if Harris wins against this background with the majority unhappy about the direction of the country and the state of the economy she will have performed a miracle.
She has managed to position herself as change from both Biden and Trump though. Which has been quite a trick.
I’m knackered after a busy day at the office and a bad night’s sleep. Is it worth me staying up much longer?
Timing is a bugger. Apparently if we give it a couple more hours some actually impactful data may come in, but given how things shift you'll then be up all night fretting. But if you sleep 4-5 hours you might miss something major.
I feel like a nap, but I'm no good at just grabbing a couple of hours without feeling like shit.
Trump to win the popular vote and Harris to win the EC is still at 2.6 to 100 on Polymarkets, looks like the best value bet out there at the moment, still not the most likely outcome, just the most undervalued.
FYI, the exit poll the various media outlets are reporting on is the same one.
Joe Lenski is the executive vice-president of Edison Research and leads the team conducting the US exit poll on behalf of the TV networks, including the BBC.
🧵Just before 2 p.m., an election observer noticed a panel on tabulators in Milwaukee's central count weren't properly closed. The panel that wasn't closed contains tabulators' on/off switches. They were supposed to have been locked in the morning
Milwaukee is going to recount every absentee ballot that had been counted because of this issue. They had already tabulated 30,000 ballots.
I’m knackered after a busy day at the office and a bad night’s sleep. Is it worth me staying up much longer?
Depends if you want to aim for the early hours info dumps from GA and NC which @rcs1000 has flagged as being important indicators.
As it is, I won’t be able to and instead I’ll be checking back in early doors. I’m hoping we’ll know one way or another by then - if I’ve missed all the drama I won’t be particularly upset. But of course there is a chance we won’t.
Given the Supreme Court's views on crime, Biden could presumably commit a lot of crimes to try to help Harris and he'd never even have to worry about prosecution.
Lean – just – to Harris: We think the race is very marginally lean Harris - 276 electoral college votes to 262 on a national vote share of lead 2.7%. We would assign a 55% probability of a Harris win at this stage.some text This is driven by wins across the Blue wall (Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania) The reason its “lean” Harris - and nothing stronger - is she’s losing all in the states which have less historical polling error and due to win in all the states that have had massive anti Republican polling (1-6%) last two cycles Only 0.7% swing towards the Republicans in swing states gives it to Trump. Last average error was 3.5 points and in 2016 it was 3.7 points. Harris could win bigger than people think: If our polls are correct - there exists a credible path to Harris winning bigger than Biden in 2020, she’s within touching distance in Georgia and North Carolina. If she takes this plus midwest she’s on course for 328 votes Harris was the rust belt candidate and weaker in the south during the campaign; that’s now reversing. Harris has been stronger in mid west and weaker in south all campaign - but in our polling this trend has actually been reversing past 2 weeks - stronger in Georgia and North Carolina and softening in mid west We are not convinced that the Mid West always moves as one: We are not super convinced that the mid west will move as one (State statistics from when they last didn’t move together) - we think PA is beginning tilting Democrat, but WI looks very close, and Michigan polling - safest in our estimates - prime candidate for a polling error The Democrat coalition looks a lot more Reagan-esque than before: The pattern of the election is that the Harris coalition will be whiter, richer, more educated and more female than previous Democrat coalitions. There will be some racial depolarisation - but it is modest vs the headlines (see our principal component analysis below) The Fundamentals favour Trump. If we weren’t looking at voting intention opinion polls - our prior would be a Trump win. Firstly the performance of incumbent governments, second Trump owns with material leads the top three issues. The side that overperforms on top issues normally wins. In the plus Harris column is the fact that she has superior favourable ratings in Mid West Early voting doesn’t provide any clarity: Early voting largely indicate a really close election - rather than blue wave. Michigan and Nevada look worse than current polls for Democrats, but other states look more in line with our estimates
Given the Supreme Court's views on crime, Biden could presumably commit a lot of crimes to try to help Harris and he'd never even have to worry about prosecution.
Good thing for Trump Biden wouldn't try that.
Just one little drone strike on a villa in Florida….
🧵Just before 2 p.m., an election observer noticed a panel on tabulators in Milwaukee's central count weren't properly closed. The panel that wasn't closed contains tabulators' on/off switches. They were supposed to have been locked in the morning
Milwaukee is going to recount every absentee ballot that had been counted because of this issue. They had already tabulated 30,000 ballots.
HOLD ON. i just found out there is a *separate* guy named jon favreau who is the pod save america guy. this whole time i thought jon favreau the filmmaker was just really involved in pod save america but being lowkey about it.. https://x.com/oliviastowell/status/1853621476055802245
Went to see Macbeth at the Harold Pinter theatre with my son tonight - he's doing it for GCSE. It is the David Tennant production although he wasn't in it tonight- they seem to have been hit by a wave of illness and injuries and extraordinarily the show went ahead with five understudies in principal roles, including Macbeth and Lady Mabeth. It was still an excellent production with incredible use of sound and the audience gave a standing ovation to the stand-ins. Whatever happens to the world we'll always have Shakespeare.
I’m knackered after a busy day at the office and a bad night’s sleep. Is it worth me staying up much longer?
Depends if you want to aim for the early hours info dumps from GA and NC which @rcs1000 has flagged as being important indicators.
As it is, I won’t be able to and instead I’ll be checking back in early doors. I’m hoping we’ll know one way or another by then - if I’ve missed all the drama I won’t be particularly upset. But of course there is a chance we won’t.
Yes, I was thinking trying to cling on for that at 0100. But it seems a long way off. Just made a cuppa!
HOLD ON. i just found out there is a *separate* guy named jon favreau who is the pod save america guy. this whole time i thought jon favreau the filmmaker was just really involved in pod save america but being lowkey about it.. https://x.com/oliviastowell/status/1853621476055802245
Apparently there are two Steve McQueen Hollywood legends.
Given the Supreme Court's views on crime, Biden could presumably commit a lot of crimes to try to help Harris and he'd never even have to worry about prosecution.
Except that the Trump Supreme Court gets to decide what is and isn't part of the president's official business to which immunity applies.
Lean – just – to Harris: We think the race is very marginally lean Harris - 276 electoral college votes to 262 on a national vote share of lead 2.7%. We would assign a 55% probability of a Harris win at this stage.some text This is driven by wins across the Blue wall (Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania) The reason its “lean” Harris - and nothing stronger - is she’s losing all in the states which have less historical polling error and due to win in all the states that have had massive anti Republican polling (1-6%) last two cycles Only 0.7% swing towards the Republicans in swing states gives it to Trump. Last average error was 3.5 points and in 2016 it was 3.7 points. Harris could win bigger than people think: If our polls are correct - there exists a credible path to Harris winning bigger than Biden in 2020, she’s within touching distance in Georgia and North Carolina. If she takes this plus midwest she’s on course for 328 votes Harris was the rust belt candidate and weaker in the south during the campaign; that’s now reversing. Harris has been stronger in mid west and weaker in south all campaign - but in our polling this trend has actually been reversing past 2 weeks - stronger in Georgia and North Carolina and softening in mid west We are not convinced that the Mid West always moves as one: We are not super convinced that the mid west will move as one (State statistics from when they last didn’t move together) - we think PA is beginning tilting Democrat, but WI looks very close, and Michigan polling - safest in our estimates - prime candidate for a polling error The Democrat coalition looks a lot more Reagan-esque than before: The pattern of the election is that the Harris coalition will be whiter, richer, more educated and more female than previous Democrat coalitions. There will be some racial depolarisation - but it is modest vs the headlines (see our principal component analysis below) The Fundamentals favour Trump. If we weren’t looking at voting intention opinion polls - our prior would be a Trump win. Firstly the performance of incumbent governments, second Trump owns with material leads the top three issues. The side that overperforms on top issues normally wins. In the plus Harris column is the fact that she has superior favourable ratings in Mid West Early voting doesn’t provide any clarity: Early voting largely indicate a really close election - rather than blue wave. Michigan and Nevada look worse than current polls for Democrats, but other states look more in line with our estimates
Went to see Macbeth at the Harold Pinter theatre with my son tonight - he's doing it for GCSE. It is the David Tennant production although he wasn't in it tonight- they seem to have been hit by a wave of illness and injuries and extraordinarily the show went ahead with five understudies in principal roles, including Macbeth and Lady Mabeth. It was still an excellent production with incredible use of sound and the audience gave a standing ovation to the stand-ins. Whatever happens to the world we'll always have Shakespeare.
Comments
(Those are 2016 numbers.)
*The campaign says it's seeing high Puerto Rican turnout in Philadelphia
*The campaign says it's seeing high enthusiasm from college students, including long lines at Lehigh University in critical Pennsylvania
https://x.com/kylegriffin1/status/1853929064366764170
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1MVa3Q-yHGT_b2F7kxPjh6xyNmeOIRBo1_C56DDT3miY/edit?gid=0#gid=0
🧵Just before 2 p.m., an election observer noticed a panel on tabulators in Milwaukee's central count weren't properly closed. The panel that wasn't closed contains tabulators' on/off switches. They were supposed to have been locked in the morning
Milwaukee is going to recount every absentee ballot that had been counted because of this issue. They had already tabulated 30,000 ballots.
The count will go very late
https://x.com/AlexanderShur/status/1853923629664211185
Oh boy.
@NatashaC
Congressman Seth Magaziner, of Rhode Island, tells me
@LBC
- there's a "cautious optimism" among Democrats tonight and "It feels like the late momentum is on her side"
- turnout seems high
- Thinks it's "unlikely to be as close as the polls suggest"
"People were feeling better today than a week ago... [the polls] have turned around. The Harris campaign has a more robust and effective get out the vote campaign, it was incredible, they were knowing on 2,000 doors per minute in the state of Pennsylvania alone - the Trump campaign had nothing like that on the ground. We know it's a close race, but there's optimism, the momentum seems to have shifted in her direction, the ground operation is more robust"
"Turnout is looking high, high here in Rhode Island, closer to 2020 levels than 2016, and I'm hearing from the same in swing states, particularly in suburbs, Charlotte, Philadelphia, Detroit. I think that favours the Vice President"
https://x.com/NatashaC/status/1853929805517115840
Made climbing back quite difficult.
https://www.focaldata.com/blog/our-final-report-on-the-us-presidential-election
Lean – just – to Harris: We think the race is very marginally lean Harris - 276 electoral college votes to 262 on a national vote share of lead 2.7%. We would assign a 55% probability of a Harris win at this stage.some text
This is driven by wins across the Blue wall (Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania)
The reason its “lean” Harris - and nothing stronger - is she’s losing all in the states which have less historical polling error and due to win in all the states that have had massive anti Republican polling (1-6%) last two cycles
Only 0.7% swing towards the Republicans in swing states gives it to Trump. Last average error was 3.5 points and in 2016 it was 3.7 points.
Harris could win bigger than people think: If our polls are correct - there exists a credible path to Harris winning bigger than Biden in 2020, she’s within touching distance in Georgia and North Carolina. If she takes this plus midwest she’s on course for 328 votes
Harris was the rust belt candidate and weaker in the south during the campaign; that’s now reversing. Harris has been stronger in mid west and weaker in south all campaign - but in our polling this trend has actually been reversing past 2 weeks - stronger in Georgia and North Carolina and softening in mid west
We are not convinced that the Mid West always moves as one: We are not super convinced that the mid west will move as one (State statistics from when they last didn’t move together) - we think PA is beginning tilting Democrat, but WI looks very close, and Michigan polling - safest in our estimates - prime candidate for a polling error
The Democrat coalition looks a lot more Reagan-esque than before: The pattern of the election is that the Harris coalition will be whiter, richer, more educated and more female than previous Democrat coalitions. There will be some racial depolarisation - but it is modest vs the headlines (see our principal component analysis below)
The Fundamentals favour Trump. If we weren’t looking at voting intention opinion polls - our prior would be a Trump win. Firstly the performance of incumbent governments, second Trump owns with material leads the top three issues. The side that overperforms on top issues normally wins. In the plus Harris column is the fact that she has superior favourable ratings in Mid West
Early voting doesn’t provide any clarity: Early voting largely indicate a really close election - rather than blue wave. Michigan and Nevada look worse than current polls for Democrats, but other states look more in line with our estimates
But I do have money on Harris losing the PV and winning the Presidency, so who knows
https://x.com/ArmandDoma/status/1853895012079280423
If people wanted to argue with either they were still the better choice, fine, I did that with Biden myself, but the denial of reality is off the charts.
"Is Trump Too Extreme?"
Yes: 51%
No: 46%
UK exit polls: bing bong, here’s the prime minister
US exit polls: is it better to be loved or feared? Give your answer to the nearest cubit
Mainly because I'm watching the Fall of Civilizations podcast about Ancient Egypt.
@just_security
NEW: Election 2024 Real-Time Litigation Tracker
By
@NormEisen
@JoyceWhiteVance
Samara Angel, Clare Boone, & Madison Gee
The most important #2024Election litigation, tracked and updated with the latest developments 👇
https://x.com/just_security/status/1853931917596406211
British exit polls: This is the exact breakdown of how many seats each party will win.
US exit polls: 36% of voters don't like pineapple on pizza.
I feel like a nap, but I'm no good at just grabbing a couple of hours without feeling like shit.
I've just bought Harris in North Carolina.
Joe Lenski is the executive vice-president of Edison Research and leads the team conducting the US exit poll on behalf of the TV networks, including the BBC.
As it is, I won’t be able to and instead I’ll be checking back in early doors. I’m hoping we’ll know one way or another by then - if I’ve missed all the drama I won’t be particularly upset. But of course there is a chance we won’t.
https://www.theargus.co.uk/news/24703091.live-thousands-flock-lewes-bonfire-2024/
Good thing for Trump Biden wouldn't try that.
She has only had a few months to define herself as a candidate. Has she really done that?
https://x.com/FrenchFuse/status/1853525345359499714?t=4h-H9jBTfk8-fHW3h-ieWA&s=19
HOLD ON. i just found out there is a *separate* guy named jon favreau who is the pod save america guy. this whole time i thought jon favreau the filmmaker was just really involved in pod save america but being lowkey about it..
https://x.com/oliviastowell/status/1853621476055802245
Whatever happens to the world we'll always have Shakespeare.
https://x.com/fatshez/status/1853934513547579742
Frank Luntz
@FrankLuntz
This isn’t going to take hours.
It’s going to take days.
https://today.yougov.com/elections/us/2024
https://www.realclearpolling.com/stories/analysis/a-pre-mortem-for-both-campaigns