Democrats have been fearful of losing the vote of Michigan’s large Arab American and Muslim American communities over the Biden-Harris administration’s response to Israel’s war on Gaza, and at a polling station in Dearborn there was some evidence that they were right to be concerned.
Although it was a small sample size, none of the Arab American voters the Guardian spoke to had voted for Harris
Guardian blog
Yes, that is a big worry. From the vox pops, Gaza seems to have driven quite a few Muslims and younger voters to Stein.
There was an Arab-American spokesperson onstage at one of the Trump rallies yesterday saying the community had swung behind Trump over Gaza.
Doesn't he say Biden and Harris haven't backed Netanyahu enough?
Trump's fundamental claim is that Hamas would not have attacked Israel in the first place and it follows from there that Israel would not have flattened Gaza.
So, do I wait up, not having school tomorrow as I don’t work on Wednesdays this year, or do I go to bed now to allow for the fact that my doctor wants to check up on my blood pressure in the morning?
It's interesting that the Rest is Politics ('Bad Al and Snory Rory') live feed is getting 80k viewers, whilst GB News is getting slightly over 2k.
Oooops.
GB News is weird. They rarely get high live numbers on YouTube compared to how many they get via OTA and via radio. But they do incredibly well with YouTube videos, 1.7bn views.
My guess is lots of oldies, they still turn on the moving picture box and watch via traditional means, but they also all have iPads and sit clicking YouTube videos on their ipads.
As a business model, the problem for GB News is the YouTube doesn't pay good advertising revenue for content farming anymore. 5-10 years ago, it would be a goldmine to get 1.7bn views from constantly uploading a few mins clips.
Interesting that @Andy_JS@londonpubman snd the Focaldata MRP are all forecasting the same result: Harris 276.
I did my forecasts without looking at any other prediction websites because I find that's the best way to make accurate predictions. Finished 99% of it last night, made a few small adjustments this afternoon.
Interesting that @Andy_JS@londonpubman snd the Focaldata MRP are all forecasting the same result: Harris 276.
I did my forecasts without looking at any other prediction websites because I find that's the best way to make accurate predictions. Finished 99% of it last night, made a few small adjustments this afternoon.
It's interesting that the Rest is Politics ('Bad Al and Snory Rory') live feed is getting 80k viewers, whilst GB News is getting slightly over 2k.
Oooops.
GB News is weird. They rarely get high live numbers on YouTube compared to how many they get via OTA and via radio. But they do incredibly well with YouTube videos, 1.7bn views.
My guess is lots of oldies, they still turn on the moving picture box and watch via traditional means, but they also all have iPads and sit clicking YouTube videos on their ipads.
'Views' on youtube are a bit like 'views' on twitter/X. This week I saw a 2hr video go up marked '20 seconds ago' which already had 100 'views'.
Did the Guardian get readers to send letters to Clark County voters this time round?
Truly one of the greater collective acts of self important prickery. Still hilariously bad.
It reminded me in an odd way of missionaries who go to uncontacted tribes to spread Christianity and get boiled alive or eaten or whatever.
The result wasn't quite as lethal, not directly anyway, but you have the same arrogant condescension, the same complete misunderstanding of the local culture, and a similarly perverse outcome.
From April, commercial pick-up trucks weighing more than one tonne will be classed as cars rather than vans for benefit-in-kind purposes.
Tax bills for four-door trucks will rocket as a result. A 20pc taxpayer driving a pick-up as a company vehicle currently pays a flat rate of £792 a year, while a 40pc taxpayer pays £1,584 a year.
Bills will surge to £4,400 a year for a basic rate taxpayer and £8,880 a year for a higher rate taxpayer driving Ford Ranger 2.0-litre diesel.
People were buying 6-seater pick-up trucks through their ltd companies as a cheap way to buy a large SUV-type vehicle for personal use. HMRC have been angling to close this loophole for a while.
If you genuinely need a pick-up truck for your business you can buy a single cab pick-up instead which will have a larger bed & thus be more suitable for work use. Those will continue to be charged the commercial vehicle tax rate.
Interesting that the Telegraph are trying to make a culture war of *this*. Even they admit that it is a loophole.
They have a couple of things wrong - aiui it's one tonne payload and above not one tonne weight.
And the problem was that this gave a significant tax break to the huge ones, that are less efficient, don't fit in parking spaces, and are even more dangerous, over the smaller ones. So people who may have needed a small vehicle were driven to go for a larger vehicle by a distorting tax system.
I noted this here back in the spring when the decision was made, then had to reverse ferret when the Conservatives decided to use it as one of their portfolios of Hail Mary passes for the Election.
My hope is that it will kill the whole segment stone dead; these vehicles have no place on our general roads. I think single cab pickups with 3 seats could meet much of the demand.
If Trump is just holding his 2020 vote or even doing slightly worse in IN, that’s not good news for him, you’d think, in WI/MI/PA. But very early days.
Interesting that @Andy_JS@londonpubman snd the Focaldata MRP are all forecasting the same result: Harris 276.
I did my forecasts without looking at any other prediction websites because I find that's the best way to make accurate predictions. Finished 99% of it last night, made a few small adjustments this afternoon.
Upon what, though, do you base your forecasts?
Mostly just raw data of opinion polls, and experience of observing elections over the years, getting a feel of how things go. Noticing what mistakes people/organisations tend to make with predictions over the years and trying to avoid them. I won a prediction competition on the VoteUK forum for the UK general election in July by forecasting Lab 411, Con 127, LD 70, which was fairly close to the result of Lab 407, Con 121, LD 72.
Interesting that @Andy_JS@londonpubman snd the Focaldata MRP are all forecasting the same result: Harris 276.
I did my forecasts without looking at any other prediction websites because I find that's the best way to make accurate predictions. Finished 99% of it last night, made a few small adjustments this afternoon.
I simply started with the 'consensus' per 270towin.com with the exception of the 7 'swing states' (shown as 'toss-up' there) and then made my non-scientific projection for those 7 states.
EDIT they are showing Arizona as lean GOP and I used that.
Democrats have been fearful of losing the vote of Michigan’s large Arab American and Muslim American communities over the Biden-Harris administration’s response to Israel’s war on Gaza, and at a polling station in Dearborn there was some evidence that they were right to be concerned.
Although it was a small sample size, none of the Arab American voters the Guardian spoke to had voted for Harris
Guardian blog
Yes, that is a big worry. From the vox pops, Gaza seems to have driven quite a few Muslims and younger voters to Stein.
There was an Arab-American spokesperson onstage at one of the Trump rallies yesterday saying the community had swung behind Trump over Gaza.
Doesn't he say Biden and Harris haven't backed Netanyahu enough?
Trump's fundamental claim is that Hamas would not have attacked Israel in the first place and it follows from there that Israel would not have flattened Gaza.
He’s also said he’d take all restraints off Netanyahu WRT Gaza and Lebanon. Arab American preferring him on Gaza is pretty nuts, but these things aren’t entirely rational.
It's interesting that the Rest is Politics ('Bad Al and Snory Rory') live feed is getting 80k viewers, whilst GB News is getting slightly over 2k.
Oooops.
GB News is weird. They rarely get high live numbers on YouTube compared to how many they get via OTA and via radio. But they do incredibly well with YouTube videos, 1.7bn views.
My guess is lots of oldies, they still turn on the moving picture box and watch via traditional means, but they also all have iPads and sit clicking YouTube videos on their ipads.
'Views' on youtube are a bit like 'views' on twitter/X. This week I saw a 2hr video go up marked '20 seconds ago' which already had 100 'views'.
I don't think it is necessarily super dodgy. They went for the content farming approach, 69K published videos....but they have definitely grown on YouTube, both subscribers and views on every video are up over the course of past year. Every video now gets at least 15k views, lots of 30/40/50k videos and the viral ones get 100k's.
A drop for Lab was probably expected, but it's still pretty rough. Nice even distribution of the change though. New Scotland Only Westminster poll, Norstat 30 Oct - 1 Nov (changes vs 20-22 Aug):
SNP ~ 30% (+1) Lab ~ 23% (-9) Con ~ 15% (+3) RUK ~ 14% (+2) LD ~ 10% (+2) Grn ~ 6% (+1) Alba ~ 1% (-1)
Here we go again.. apparently the Church of England is riddled from head to toe in structural and systemic racism, and black congregations are put off by memorials to slavers:
Not if you ask Tommy Robinson and Farage and their crew, apparently according to them the C of E is riddled with woke liberals opening the doors to the boats and immigrants and Sharia law.
Most black Anglicans in my experience are small c conservatives and recognise memorials as of their time and history.
The Bishop of Dover is black as was the last Archbishop of York.
The Tories and C of E have had more black senior leaders than Labour has had
I think I am probably more or less with @HYUFD on at least one question in this area.. Generally contextualisation is the way, not removal or demolition of historical monuments.
There are exceptions both ways, but in general in an old church, an explanatory plaque next to a memorial makes more sense than removal of the memorial.
That's the same stance I took on the "Rhodes Must Go" protests. It's something to be considered carefully, rather than fodder to leverage some sort of mini-revolution.
Indiana is Pence territory. Good work on the numbers notwithstanding I am not sure if any of it really carries over.
Pence and other former Cabinet officials I hope will have an understated impact on the election. Many of them are deeply conservative people, and they won't back the guy they worked for for years, even if many cannot bring themselves to actually vote against him openly or endorse his opponent.
My hope would be that a sufficient number of Republicans can look at how unusual that is and just not find it credible that all of them are secret Democrats or bitter fools. The vast majority dismiss it, they're either really into Trump or just loyal to the brand even if unhappy, but if even those like Pence who know the man best as President are hesistant, hopefully there are people quietly saying they cannot give him another go.
BREEAAKKKKINNNNGGG NEWSSSSSS......Exit poll, Georgia voters economy is most important issue.
Georgia was so insanely close last time I had in the Trump bag this time pretty early. That Trump cost them two senate seats as well as probably better than the Democrats could have hoped for.
Anecdote about Musk’s paid election worker organisation.
Don't know if it'll matter, but none of the four paid Trump workers I spoke with at polling stations around Philly supported Trump -- and three voted for Harris https://x.com/JoshuaGreen/status/1853931359913595242
So Trump is currently running 3-4 points behind where he was in Indiana across the board.
I guess issue is whether there is a disproportionate amount of mail in the numbers reported so far.
Not sure re: current practice, but when I was a poll-site election judge in Indiana about 40 years ago, when polls closed we counted ALL the ballots, absentees as well as in-person cast EDay (no in-person early voting back then).
So am thinking that current, partial results include BOTH absentee/early and EDay poll-site. IF somebody knows (as opposed to speculating) lets us know!
Does the US have reporting restrictions on election day? Feels like they wouldn't, free speech and all that.
Pretty sure it doesn't. The UK restriction is a bit moot these days because it doesn't apply to sites like PB where most people discuss things.
I appreciate CNN etc might not release actual exit poll voter stats before polls close , but if there aren't restrictions why does the GOP use immediate figures to terrorise voters?
A drop for Lab was probably expected, but it's still pretty rough. Nice even distribution of the change though. New Scotland Only Westminster poll, Norstat 30 Oct - 1 Nov (changes vs 20-22 Aug):
SNP ~ 30% (+1) Lab ~ 23% (-9) Con ~ 15% (+3) RUK ~ 14% (+2) LD ~ 10% (+2) Grn ~ 6% (+1) Alba ~ 1% (-1)
Here we go again.. apparently the Church of England is riddled from head to toe in structural and systemic racism, and black congregations are put off by memorials to slavers:
Not if you ask Tommy Robinson and Farage and their crew, apparently according to them the C of E is riddled with woke liberals opening the doors to the boats and immigrants and Sharia law.
Most black Anglicans in my experience are small c conservatives and recognise memorials as of their time and history.
The Bishop of Dover is black as was the last Archbishop of York.
The Tories and C of E have had more black senior leaders than Labour has had
I think I am probably more or less with @HYUFD on at least one question in this area.. Generally contextualisation is the way, not removal or demolition of historical monuments.
There are exceptions both ways, but in general in an old church, an explanatory plaque next to a memorial makes more sense than removal of the memorial.
That's the same stance I took on the "Rhodes Must Go" protests. It's something to be considered carefully, rather than fodder to leverage some sort of mini-revolution.
'The states of democracy and the economy are the two issues at the top of voters’ minds, according to the initial results of CNN’s national exit poll of voters in this year’s presidential election.
More than one-third call democracy their top issue, with about 3 in 10 saying the economy. That’s followed by abortion and immigration, with fewer than 5% calling foreign policy their top issue.
More context: Thinking an issue is important, of course, doesn’t necessarily imply someone will vote solely on that basis, but polling on the top issues gives a sense of which concerns and campaign themes are resonating most with different parts of the electorate.
The exit poll finds a sharp divide between voters backing Vice President Kamala Harris and those backing former President Donald Trump. A broad majority of Harris voters – slightly under 6 in 10 – call democracy their top issue, with about 20% calling abortion their top issue. About half of Trump' voters call the economy their top issue, followed by about 20% calling immigration their biggest issue.' https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/2024-election-trump-harris#cm350guvx001g3b5we9h2gnba
Indiana is Pence territory. Good work on the numbers notwithstanding I am not sure if any of it really carries over.
Really good shout - could just be unwind of a Mike Pence effect. And no sign of Trump running behind 2020 in Kentucky
No - look at Kentuky.
Wolf county as example - Trump off by 4 on 2020.
These are probably the early vote, the day of vote could be much more Republican.
Personally suspect the opposite (based on spotty county returns) that votes reported in Kentucky are early PLUS EDay (not sure re: absentees) like (I think) in Indiana.
Comments
My guess is lots of oldies, they still turn on the moving picture box and watch via traditional means, but they also all have iPads and sit clicking YouTube videos on their ipads.
As a business model, the problem for GB News is the YouTube doesn't pay good advertising revenue for content farming anymore. 5-10 years ago, it would be a goldmine to get 1.7bn views from constantly uploading a few mins clips.
Interesting line from Niall Ferguson saying this isn’t a national election, it’s a national divorce.
*not a subsample*
https://x.com/ballotboxscot/status/1853924914966691937?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
The result wasn't quite as lethal, not directly anyway, but you have the same arrogant condescension, the same complete misunderstanding of the local culture, and a similarly perverse outcome.
Indiana numbers keep getting better for Harris
She's ahead in Hamilton in the Indiana suburbs, which Trump won last time
They have a couple of things wrong - aiui it's one tonne payload and above not one tonne weight.
And the problem was that this gave a significant tax break to the huge ones, that are less efficient, don't fit in parking spaces, and are even more dangerous, over the smaller ones. So people who may have needed a small vehicle were driven to go for a larger vehicle by a distorting tax system.
I noted this here back in the spring when the decision was made, then had to reverse ferret when the Conservatives decided to use it as one of their portfolios of Hail Mary passes for the Election.
My hope is that it will kill the whole segment stone dead; these vehicles have no place on our general roads. I think single cab pickups with 3 seats could meet much of the demand.
EDIT they are showing Arizona as lean GOP and I used that.
Arab American preferring him on Gaza is pretty nuts, but these things aren’t entirely rational.
There might be local issues, but...
Looking like similar off results there - but very very early
New Scotland Only Westminster poll, Norstat 30 Oct - 1 Nov (changes vs 20-22 Aug):
SNP ~ 30% (+1)
Lab ~ 23% (-9)
Con ~ 15% (+3)
RUK ~ 14% (+2)
LD ~ 10% (+2)
Grn ~ 6% (+1)
Alba ~ 1% (-1)
Trump 1.72 (from 1.65) in last 2 minutes
But will I sleep?
Despite being bloody knackered.
Wolf county as example - Trump off by 4 on 2020.
There are exceptions both ways, but in general in an old church, an explanatory plaque next to a memorial makes more sense than removal of the memorial.
That's the same stance I took on the "Rhodes Must Go" protests. It's something to be considered carefully, rather than fodder to leverage some sort of mini-revolution.
My hope would be that a sufficient number of Republicans can look at how unusual that is and just not find it credible that all of them are secret Democrats or bitter fools. The vast majority dismiss it, they're either really into Trump or just loyal to the brand even if unhappy, but if even those like Pence who know the man best as President are hesistant, hopefully there are people quietly saying they cannot give him another go.
She is off by a couple of points as well.
Harris 2.38 / 2.4
Trump 1.72 / 1.73
Don't know if it'll matter, but none of the four paid Trump workers I spoke with at polling stations around Philly supported Trump -- and three voted for Harris
https://x.com/JoshuaGreen/status/1853931359913595242
So am thinking that current, partial results include BOTH absentee/early and EDay poll-site. IF somebody knows (as opposed to speculating) lets us know!
Get with the times!
More than one-third call democracy their top issue, with about 3 in 10 saying the economy. That’s followed by abortion and immigration, with fewer than 5% calling foreign policy their top issue.
More context: Thinking an issue is important, of course, doesn’t necessarily imply someone will vote solely on that basis, but polling on the top issues gives a sense of which concerns and campaign themes are resonating most with different parts of the electorate.
The exit poll finds a sharp divide between voters backing Vice President Kamala Harris and those backing former President Donald Trump. A broad majority of Harris voters – slightly under 6 in 10 – call democracy their top issue, with about 20% calling abortion their top issue. About half of Trump' voters call the economy their top issue, followed by about 20% calling immigration their biggest issue.'
https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/2024-election-trump-harris#cm350guvx001g3b5we9h2gnba
But we should educate people, add context with signs etc.
But the problem is that the "anti-w-word" brigade don't want that.
Live AP Feed
31% of voters had voted early without the last day, which would get you to about 50% of the total vote which these look like.
Man, I'm getting old.