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Voting is certainly brisk in this part of Pennsylvania – politicalbetting.com
Voting is certainly brisk in this part of Pennsylvania – politicalbetting.com
Holy shit. This is a polling place near Lehigh University in Pennsylvania. So many young voters coming out to save democracy and protect their rights. pic.twitter.com/KxJnSxqFLQ
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Sorry Sunil *quietly buffs nails*
Trump may find his plan to create a perpetual Trump empire a little awkward if Americans really have decided to give democracy a big thumbs up.
(Let's hope it doesn't come to that though)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sAmC9FDX4aE
Crossover with
Al & Rory
Anthony from TRiP US
Marina from TRiE
Dominic from TRiH
Alan Shearer from TRiF
Many Time… youth vote down.
1. Her campaign has been flawless, focused on all the right positive stuff whilst resolutely ignoring culture war nonsense.
2. Abortion, American women feel the GOP has overreached and they are angry.
3. Trump fatigue has well and truly set in. The fiscal wing of the GOP wants him gone. The tremendous list of Republican endorsees of Harris says it all.
4. Trump himself looks old, tired and his campaign has been very low energy. MAGA enthusiasm is nowhere near previous years.
5. Trump never adapted to the change of opponent
6. The economy has significantly buoyed over the last few months
7. Democrats have united behind Harris, there has been no dissent (except Tlaib)
8. The Reagan generation is dying out.
9. Trump has bet the farm on demographics that don’t vote
10. The Democrats have smashed the funding and GOTV ground games.
11. Jan 6th
I posted my map yesterday. If anything I think it may be conservative for Harris.
My bets
£20 Harris win at 11/8
£20 Harris win PA at 11/10
£3 Harris win IA at 10/1
£3 Harris win AK at 30/1
£2 Harris win KS at 100/1
I don’t think the last three state bets will win but thought they were value (and I’ve been trying for years to net a 100/1 winner). 80/1 still my longest single win!
Today is the presidential election.
In Palau.
The former president is running against the president -- who is also his brother-in-law
https://nitter.poast.org/PopulismUpdates/status/1853877216599503244#m
Note NV is 8 hours behind us and obviously some time lag - so these numbers probably up to about 11am in most counties.
He'll be posting again throughout the day.
https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-2024
How can Trump possibly have a path to the Presidency that doesn't include Pennsylvania? It's just about possible to think of a scenario where Harris doesn't win Pennsylvania, but loses wins the election. But it's almost impossible for Trump.
Don't let this be the Megalopolis of spreadsheets.
The most expert pollsters are telling us this morning that it's a toss-up.
If you had not wasted a single minute in the past year-plus reading or listening to any report on polls, you would be just as informed as you are today.
https://x.com/JamesFallows/status/1853850325628928504
Imagine if the dude hadn’t dropped out.
Nice and quiet on here, no news happening today I guess? What's the topic of conversation today? Aliens? ChatGPT? Flags?
Dobbs sent the issue back to legislatures - which includes the Federal legislature. Not “the states”.
One more time: The Supreme Court ruling overturning Roe v. Wade doesn't just send the issue back to "the states." It also sends abortion to Congress to override the states if it chooses — either by codifying legal abortion nationwide or by restricting or banning it nationwide.
https://x.com/sahilkapur/status/1853854255238586518
Last time an increase in turnout was associated with a swing away from Trump, but there was also an increase in turnout in 2016, and that vote went Trump's way.
It would be good to see turnout above 70%, regardless of who it favours.
Doesn't the Tenth Amendment mean its sent back to the states and not federal government if there's no federal grounds for legislation?
Federal national laws typically happen under the terms of interstate commerce but not sure that works for abortion.
And the most commonly used abortion procedure, of course, is the mifepristone pill - approved by a federal agency.
Having toured the usual suspects online I would say it looks like confirming my suspicions on how this thing is going. One side sounds rather bullish while the other seems rather plaintive. Of course the Romney campaign was very confident in 2012 and both sides thought they were doomed in 2016 so in the end you have to wait for the numbers (and I don't mean Dixville Notch or Guam!) There are currents flowing in various directions this time and all the presumptions about what certain turn-outs mean may be proved very wrong.
FWIW my averages have Harris sneaking it via a 0.2% win in PA. She regained the lead via a shift of polls in the last two days
Dem 2.02
Rep 1.96
Not sure if it's still on or not.
A major concern is the various attempts, in anti-abortion states, to use lawfare against abortion in *other* states. In the past, such attempts at extending state power have been slapped down - many are worried what this court will do.
Here is my forecast
Harris 276 Trump 262
Trump wins Arizona
Harris wins Nevada
Harris wins Michigan
Harris wins Winsconsin
Trump wins North Carolina
Trump wins Georgia
Harris wins Pennsylvania
DYOR!
And the Supreme Court would get to decide where the future balance lies between the two jurisdictions, when the inevitable clashes occurred.
Rep 37.2
Dem 33.5
Other 29.4
Total vote 1,175k
Rinse and repeat over a few days.
What will they *allow*?
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/next-abortion-battlefront-opens-between-states-with-clashing-laws
Law making of complex moral issues best follows regular democratic oversight and the principle of subsidiarity. Bans or legalisation of such issues through centralised constitutional courts is far less desirable.
It’s odd that these are controversial views in the US.
The man missed, which was not easy because Taft was a big man.
Taft looked at the head of cabbage for a bit, turned to the crowd, and said: “Ladies and gentlemen, I see one of my opponents has lost his head.”
I like the story for two reasons; it’s funny — and it probably changed the situation from “let’s fight” to “let’s laugh”, which we should do at least nine times out of ten, if we can.
(I found that story in Bob Dole’s "Great Political Wit".)
Nevada’s secretary of state, seeing high number of rejected ballots in Clark and Washoe, says one of the biggest issues is that the signatures of younger voters don’t always match what’s on their driver’s licenses:
“It’s mostly the fact that young people don’t have signatures these days. And when they did register to vote through the automatic voter registration process, they signed a digital pad at D.M.V., and that became their license signature.”
https://x.com/DylanByers/status/1853894380299681864
The trouble is, I can't be arsed.
I can't wait to find out how one legged Indian second generation immigrants who work in Agriculture think about tariff policy....
On which note, I hope OGH is enjoying this as much as we are