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Voting is certainly brisk in this part of Pennsylvania – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,183
edited November 10 in General
Voting is certainly brisk in this part of Pennsylvania – politicalbetting.com

Holy shit. This is a polling place near Lehigh University in Pennsylvania. So many young voters coming out to save democracy and protect their rights. pic.twitter.com/KxJnSxqFLQ

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,963
    edited November 5
    Second like Trump? Kamala?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,255
    Does the US have reporting restrictions on election day? Feels like they wouldn't, free speech and all that.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,479
    DavidL said:

    They are a reflection of a broken, inadequately funded system, nothing more.

    What have they got to do with the Department of Education or the Ministry of Justice?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,819
    Re; header.

    Trump may find his plan to create a perpetual Trump empire a little awkward if Americans really have decided to give democracy a big thumbs up.

    (Let's hope it doesn't come to that though)
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    The other thing is that predictions about what the increased/decreased turnout means don't have a great track record.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,618
    Anyone know what caused Trump Media stocks to nosedive just now??
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,837
    edited November 5

    Anyone know what caused Trump Media stocks to nosedive just now??

    just nerves. If news had leaked it would have leaked more widely.
  • Foxy said:

    Anyone know what caused Trump Media stocks to nosedive just now??

    just nerves. If nes had leaked it would have leaked more widely.
    Just some shorting people.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,083
    TRiP livestream (first of three, with breaks)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sAmC9FDX4aE

    Crossover with
    Al & Rory
    Anthony from TRiP US
    Marina from TRiE
    Dominic from TRiH
    Alan Shearer from TRiF
  • Andy_JS said:

    Pretty much finalised my prediction spreadsheet. Probably post it around 10pm.

    Fantastic! I will stay up!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,255
    edited November 5

    Anyone know what caused Trump Media stocks to nosedive just now??

    That it surged for no real reason in the first place?

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,576

    The other thing is that predictions about what the increased/decreased turnout means don't have a great track record.

    Many times over the years, This Is The Election… where the young will turn out and overthrow The Bad Guys.

    Many Time… youth vote down.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,255

    The other thing is that predictions about what the increased/decreased turnout means don't have a great track record.

    Many times over the years, This Is The Election… where the young will turn out and overthrow The Bad Guys.

    Many Time… youth vote down.
    We still hear about the youthquake of 2017.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,035

    Anyone know what caused Trump Media stocks to nosedive just now??

    If you read his truth social post which I am not allowed to post here it looks like he was trying to dump his shares...
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,083

    TRiP livestream (first of three, with breaks)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sAmC9FDX4aE

    Crossover with
    Al & Rory
    Anthony from TRiP US
    Marina from TRiE
    Dominic from TRiH
    Alan Shearer from TRiF

    Apparently TRiH is the second-rated podcast behind Joe Rogan in the US. TRiP is highest in UK.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,255
    For those who like their elections in more micro fashion.

    Today is the presidential election.

    In Palau.

    The former president is running against the president -- who is also his brother-in-law

    https://nitter.poast.org/PopulismUpdates/status/1853877216599503244#m
  • GaussianGaussian Posts: 831
    kle4 said:

    Does the US have reporting restrictions on election day? Feels like they wouldn't, free speech and all that.

    Yeah, difficult to see how those would get past the first amendment. I think there isn't even a right to free and fair elections in the constitution that could be balanced against free speech.

  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    Gaussian said:

    kle4 said:

    Does the US have reporting restrictions on election day? Feels like they wouldn't, free speech and all that.

    Yeah, difficult to see how those would get past the first amendment. I think there isn't even a right to free and fair elections in the constitution that could be balanced against free speech.

    One thing I find particularly mad is that they start counting votes and announcing teh results in states on the East Coast before the West Coast have finished voting.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,722
    Ralston just posted NV morning in person turnout numbers.

    Note NV is 8 hours behind us and obviously some time lag - so these numbers probably up to about 11am in most counties.

    He'll be posting again throughout the day.

    https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-2024
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,304
    edited November 5
    Weirdass Polymarket stuff:



    How can Trump possibly have a path to the Presidency that doesn't include Pennsylvania? It's just about possible to think of a scenario where Harris doesn't win Pennsylvania, but loses wins the election. But it's almost impossible for Trump.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,590
    MikeL said:

    Ralston just posted NV morning in person turnout numbers.

    Note NV is 8 hours behind us and obviously some time lag - so these numbers probably up to about 11am in most counties.

    He'll be posting again throughout the day.

    https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-2024

    Frankenstein numbers - the official 10am update for most with a top up for Clark.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,939
    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    They are a reflection of a broken, inadequately funded system, nothing more.

    What have they got to do with the Department of Education or the Ministry of Justice?
    The inadequacy of the computer systems for the courts and Crown Office was on the front page of the Times today. As someone who was unable to take the evidence of a doctor yesterday because we could not get the link to work and wasted 45 minutes today with another remote witness I have absolutely no idea of what they are talking about.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,255
    edited November 5
    Andy_JS said:

    Pretty much finalised my prediction spreadsheet. Probably post it around 10pm.

    I hope this is not like when you spend ages hoping for/anticipating an amazing Christmas present/movie, only for it to be a huge let down when it comes. No pressure, Andy.

    Don't let this be the Megalopolis of spreadsheets.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,035
    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    They are a reflection of a broken, inadequately funded system, nothing more.

    What have they got to do with the Department of Education or the Ministry of Justice?
    The inadequacy of the computer systems for the courts and Crown Office was on the front page of the Times today. As someone who was unable to take the evidence of a doctor yesterday because we could not get the link to work and wasted 45 minutes today with another remote witness I have absolutely no idea of what they are talking about.
    They should outsource that. I hear Fujitsu can help...
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,971
    Talking of charts, I'm quite interested in what the ruble-dollar exchange rate does in the next day or so. It's been slowly descending down to the 0.010 USD level; if Trump wins, I'm half expecting it to drop further. If Trump wins, I expect the Ruble to strengthen.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,522

    Talking of charts, I'm quite interested in what the ruble-dollar exchange rate does in the next day or so. It's been slowly descending down to the 0.010 USD level; if Trump wins, I'm half expecting it to drop further. If Trump wins, I expect the Ruble to strengthen.

    What’s the DJT stock to rouble exchange rate doing ?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,035
    Nigelb said:

    Talking of charts, I'm quite interested in what the ruble-dollar exchange rate does in the next day or so. It's been slowly descending down to the 0.010 USD level; if Trump wins, I'm half expecting it to drop further. If Trump wins, I expect the Ruble to strengthen.

    What’s the DJT stock to rouble exchange rate doing ?
    It was nearly rubble...
  • rcs1000 said:

    Weirdass Polymarket stuff:



    How can Trump possibly have a path to the Presidency that doesn't include Pennsylvania? It's just about possible to think of a scenario where Harris doesn't win Pennsylvania, but loses the election. But it's almost impossible for Trump.

    I can think of plenty of scenarios where Trump doesn't win Pennsylvania, but loses the election.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,478
    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    They are a reflection of a broken, inadequately funded system, nothing more.

    What have they got to do with the Department of Education or the Ministry of Justice?
    The inadequacy of the computer systems for the courts and Crown Office was on the front page of the Times today. As someone who was unable to take the evidence of a doctor yesterday because we could not get the link to work and wasted 45 minutes today with another remote witness I have absolutely no idea of what they are talking about.
    It’s the English civil courts but I am told that the new court building in Leeds has state of the art IT systems
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,304

    rcs1000 said:

    Weirdass Polymarket stuff:



    How can Trump possibly have a path to the Presidency that doesn't include Pennsylvania? It's just about possible to think of a scenario where Harris doesn't win Pennsylvania, but loses the election. But it's almost impossible for Trump.

    I can think of plenty of scenarios where Trump doesn't win Pennsylvania, but loses the election.
    Have edited my post. Thank you.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,837

    So, here we go, election night and a Harris landslide incoming:

    1. Her campaign has been flawless, focused on all the right positive stuff whilst resolutely ignoring culture war nonsense.
    2. Abortion, American women feel the GOP has overreached and they are angry.
    3. Trump fatigue has well and truly set in. The fiscal wing of the GOP wants him gone. The tremendous list of Republican endorsees of Harris says it all.
    4. Trump himself looks old, tired and his campaign has been very low energy. MAGA enthusiasm is nowhere near previous years.
    5. Trump never adapted to the change of opponent
    6. The economy has significantly buoyed over the last few months
    7. Democrats have united behind Harris, there has been no dissent (except Tlaib)
    8. The Reagan generation is dying out.
    9. Trump has bet the farm on demographics that don’t vote
    10. The Democrats have smashed the funding and GOTV ground games.
    11. Jan 6th

    I posted my map yesterday. If anything I think it may be conservative for Harris.

    My bets
    £20 Harris win at 11/8
    £20 Harris win PA at 11/10
    £3 Harris win IA at 10/1
    £3 Harris win AK at 30/1
    £2 Harris win KS at 100/1

    I don’t think the last three state bets will win but thought they were value (and I’ve been trying for years to net a 100/1 winner). 80/1 still my longest single win!

    I am hopeful for Kamala, and will be delighted if she flips FL or TX, but will stick by my Harris 308 prediction of last night.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,522
    Jonathan said:

    Nigelb said:

    PB feels seen.

    The most expert pollsters are telling us this morning that it's a toss-up.

    If you had not wasted a single minute in the past year-plus reading or listening to any report on polls, you would be just as informed as you are today.

    https://x.com/JamesFallows/status/1853850325628928504

    Joe Biden to win?
    In a sense, he already has.

    Imagine if the dude hadn’t dropped out.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,939

    Foxy said:

    Anyone know what caused Trump Media stocks to nosedive just now??

    just nerves. If nes had leaked it would have leaked more widely.
    Just some shorting people.
    Its an incredibly expensive share to short. The deposits required eliminate any reasonable prospect of a profit in doing so. I suspect more that there has been a buying program that has been keeping the DJT share price in an upward direction that has reached the end of its natural life today.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,837
    Scott_xP said:

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    They are a reflection of a broken, inadequately funded system, nothing more.

    What have they got to do with the Department of Education or the Ministry of Justice?
    The inadequacy of the computer systems for the courts and Crown Office was on the front page of the Times today. As someone who was unable to take the evidence of a doctor yesterday because we could not get the link to work and wasted 45 minutes today with another remote witness I have absolutely no idea of what they are talking about.
    They should outsource that. I hear Fujitsu can help...
    it certainly would up the conviction rate...
  • GaussianGaussian Posts: 831
    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Pretty much finalised my prediction spreadsheet. Probably post it around 10pm.

    I hope this is not like when you spend ages hoping for/anticipating an amazing Christmas present/movie, only for it to be a huge let down when it comes. No pressure, Andy.

    Don't let this be th e Megalopolis of spreadsheets.
    You of all people should be extremely happy with a delicately balanced prediction, shouldn't you?

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,035
    Harris favourite to win Nevada on Polymarket apparently
  • Hope everyone's having a good evening. Just got back from a fireworks display.

    Nice and quiet on here, no news happening today I guess? What's the topic of conversation today? Aliens? ChatGPT? Flags?
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,963
    Scott_xP said:

    Harris favourite to win Nevada on Polymarket apparently

    I'm seeing Trump 54, Harris 47?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,522
    Yes, the Democrats missed emphasising an obvious rhetorical and factual point here.
    Dobbs sent the issue back to legislatures - which includes the Federal legislature. Not “the states”.

    One more time: The Supreme Court ruling overturning Roe v. Wade doesn't just send the issue back to "the states." It also sends abortion to Congress to override the states if it chooses — either by codifying legal abortion nationwide or by restricting or banning it nationwide.
    https://x.com/sahilkapur/status/1853854255238586518
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,837
    edited November 5
    Nigelb said:

    Talking of charts, I'm quite interested in what the ruble-dollar exchange rate does in the next day or so. It's been slowly descending down to the 0.010 USD level; if Trump wins, I'm half expecting it to drop further. If Trump wins, I expect the Ruble to strengthen.

    What’s the DJT stock to rouble exchange rate doing ?
    Any thoughts as to what a victory/uncertain/defeat result would work out like for various stocks? The threats of Trumps tariffs wouldnt be good for China exposed stocks for example.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,522

    Hope everyone's having a good evening. Just got back from a fireworks display.

    Nice and quiet on here, no news happening today I guess? What's the topic of conversation today? Aliens? ChatGPT? Flags?

    The tombs of Silla.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,854

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    They are a reflection of a broken, inadequately funded system, nothing more.

    What have they got to do with the Department of Education or the Ministry of Justice?
    The inadequacy of the computer systems for the courts and Crown Office was on the front page of the Times today. As someone who was unable to take the evidence of a doctor yesterday because we could not get the link to work and wasted 45 minutes today with another remote witness I have absolutely no idea of what they are talking about.
    It’s the English civil courts but I am told that the new court building in Leeds has state of the art IT systems
    God help them
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,632

    The other thing is that predictions about what the increased/decreased turnout means don't have a great track record.

    Many times over the years, This Is The Election… where the young will turn out and overthrow The Bad Guys.

    Many Time… youth vote down.
    Turnout last time was 66%. Even with turnout being higher for older age groups there's likely still lots of scope for more older people to turnout, driving turnout higher without an increase in the youth vote.

    Last time an increase in turnout was associated with a swing away from Trump, but there was also an increase in turnout in 2016, and that vote went Trump's way.

    It would be good to see turnout above 70%, regardless of who it favours.
  • Nigelb said:

    Yes, the Democrats missed emphasising an obvious rhetorical and factual point here.
    Dobbs sent the issue back to legislatures - which includes the Federal legislature. Not “the states”.

    One more time: The Supreme Court ruling overturning Roe v. Wade doesn't just send the issue back to "the states." It also sends abortion to Congress to override the states if it chooses — either by codifying legal abortion nationwide or by restricting or banning it nationwide.
    https://x.com/sahilkapur/status/1853854255238586518

    Does it?

    Doesn't the Tenth Amendment mean its sent back to the states and not federal government if there's no federal grounds for legislation?

    Federal national laws typically happen under the terms of interstate commerce but not sure that works for abortion.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,962

    So, here we go, election night and a Harris landslide incoming:

    1. Her campaign has been flawless, focused on all the right positive stuff whilst resolutely ignoring culture war nonsense.
    2. Abortion, American women feel the GOP has overreached and they are angry.
    3. Trump fatigue has well and truly set in. The fiscal wing of the GOP wants him gone. The tremendous list of Republican endorsees of Harris says it all.
    4. Trump himself looks old, tired and his campaign has been very low energy. MAGA enthusiasm is nowhere near previous years.
    5. Trump never adapted to the change of opponent
    6. The economy has significantly buoyed over the last few months
    7. Democrats have united behind Harris, there has been no dissent (except Tlaib)
    8. The Reagan generation is dying out.
    9. Trump has bet the farm on demographics that don’t vote
    10. The Democrats have smashed the funding and GOTV ground games.
    11. Jan 6th

    I posted my map yesterday. If anything I think it may be conservative for Harris.

    My bets
    £20 Harris win at 11/8
    £20 Harris win PA at 11/10
    £3 Harris win IA at 10/1
    £3 Harris win AK at 30/1
    £2 Harris win KS at 100/1

    I don’t think the last three state bets will win but thought they were value (and I’ve been trying for years to net a 100/1 winner). 80/1 still my longest single win!

    And 12. Leon says Trump will win
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,035
    Driver said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Harris favourite to win Nevada on Polymarket apparently

    I'm seeing Trump 54, Harris 47?
    https://x.com/faisalislam/status/1853896369083183141
  • DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    Anyone know what caused Trump Media stocks to nosedive just now??

    just nerves. If nes had leaked it would have leaked more widely.
    Just some shorting people.
    Its an incredibly expensive share to short. The deposits required eliminate any reasonable prospect of a profit in doing so. I suspect more that there has been a buying program that has been keeping the DJT share price in an upward direction that has reached the end of its natural life today.
    Ok fair enough .
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,522
    edited November 5
    .

    Nigelb said:

    Yes, the Democrats missed emphasising an obvious rhetorical and factual point here.
    Dobbs sent the issue back to legislatures - which includes the Federal legislature. Not “the states”.

    One more time: The Supreme Court ruling overturning Roe v. Wade doesn't just send the issue back to "the states." It also sends abortion to Congress to override the states if it chooses — either by codifying legal abortion nationwide or by restricting or banning it nationwide.
    https://x.com/sahilkapur/status/1853854255238586518

    Does it?

    Doesn't the Tenth Amendment mean its sent back to the states and not federal government if there's no federal grounds for legislation?

    Federal national laws typically happen under the terms of interstate commerce but not sure that works for abortion.
    You’ve not been following what the GOP has been trying to do with the Comstock Act, then ?

    And the most commonly used abortion procedure, of course, is the mifepristone pill - approved by a federal agency.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,837
    IanB2 said:

    So, here we go, election night and a Harris landslide incoming:

    1. Her campaign has been flawless, focused on all the right positive stuff whilst resolutely ignoring culture war nonsense.
    2. Abortion, American women feel the GOP has overreached and they are angry.
    3. Trump fatigue has well and truly set in. The fiscal wing of the GOP wants him gone. The tremendous list of Republican endorsees of Harris says it all.
    4. Trump himself looks old, tired and his campaign has been very low energy. MAGA enthusiasm is nowhere near previous years.
    5. Trump never adapted to the change of opponent
    6. The economy has significantly buoyed over the last few months
    7. Democrats have united behind Harris, there has been no dissent (except Tlaib)
    8. The Reagan generation is dying out.
    9. Trump has bet the farm on demographics that don’t vote
    10. The Democrats have smashed the funding and GOTV ground games.
    11. Jan 6th

    I posted my map yesterday. If anything I think it may be conservative for Harris.

    My bets
    £20 Harris win at 11/8
    £20 Harris win PA at 11/10
    £3 Harris win IA at 10/1
    £3 Harris win AK at 30/1
    £2 Harris win KS at 100/1

    I don’t think the last three state bets will win but thought they were value (and I’ve been trying for years to net a 100/1 winner). 80/1 still my longest single win!

    And 12. Leon says Trump will win
    and also that Kamala will win, no doubt.
  • Foxy said:

    So, here we go, election night and a Harris landslide incoming:

    1. Her campaign has been flawless, focused on all the right positive stuff whilst resolutely ignoring culture war nonsense.
    2. Abortion, American women feel the GOP has overreached and they are angry.
    3. Trump fatigue has well and truly set in. The fiscal wing of the GOP wants him gone. The tremendous list of Republican endorsees of Harris says it all.
    4. Trump himself looks old, tired and his campaign has been very low energy. MAGA enthusiasm is nowhere near previous years.
    5. Trump never adapted to the change of opponent
    6. The economy has significantly buoyed over the last few months
    7. Democrats have united behind Harris, there has been no dissent (except Tlaib)
    8. The Reagan generation is dying out.
    9. Trump has bet the farm on demographics that don’t vote
    10. The Democrats have smashed the funding and GOTV ground games.
    11. Jan 6th

    I posted my map yesterday. If anything I think it may be conservative for Harris.

    My bets
    £20 Harris win at 11/8
    £20 Harris win PA at 11/10
    £3 Harris win IA at 10/1
    £3 Harris win AK at 30/1
    £2 Harris win KS at 100/1

    I don’t think the last three state bets will win but thought they were value (and I’ve been trying for years to net a 100/1 winner). 80/1 still my longest single win!

    I am hopeful for Kamala, and will be delighted if she flips FL or TX, but will stick by my Harris 308 prediction of last night.
    I like your prediction.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    They are a reflection of a broken, inadequately funded system, nothing more.

    What have they got to do with the Department of Education or the Ministry of Justice?
    The inadequacy of the computer systems for the courts and Crown Office was on the front page of the Times today. As someone who was unable to take the evidence of a doctor yesterday because we could not get the link to work and wasted 45 minutes today with another remote witness I have absolutely no idea of what they are talking about.
    It’s the English civil courts but I am told that the new court building in Leeds has state of the art IT systems
    The IT systems may be great but my wife is 7 days into jury duty there and has been in court for about 1 hour. Took them 23 seconds to decide the guy did it.
  • The polls held firm - for whatever reasons - in sitting on the fence. So we are really left with vibes and evidence of activity on the ground.

    Having toured the usual suspects online I would say it looks like confirming my suspicions on how this thing is going. One side sounds rather bullish while the other seems rather plaintive. Of course the Romney campaign was very confident in 2012 and both sides thought they were doomed in 2016 so in the end you have to wait for the numbers (and I don't mean Dixville Notch or Guam!) There are currents flowing in various directions this time and all the presumptions about what certain turn-outs mean may be proved very wrong.

    FWIW my averages have Harris sneaking it via a 0.2% win in PA. She regained the lead via a shift of polls in the last two days
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,722
    Nevada also near evens on Betfair.

    Dem 2.02
    Rep 1.96
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,083
    Jonathan said:

    Nigelb said:

    PB feels seen.

    The most expert pollsters are telling us this morning that it's a toss-up.

    If you had not wasted a single minute in the past year-plus reading or listening to any report on polls, you would be just as informed as you are today.

    https://x.com/JamesFallows/status/1853850325628928504

    Joe Biden to win?
    I hope not. I have a $5 bet with a friend in Seattle who I stayed with for 4th July that Trump will beat him.

    Not sure if it's still on or not.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,576

    Nigelb said:

    Yes, the Democrats missed emphasising an obvious rhetorical and factual point here.
    Dobbs sent the issue back to legislatures - which includes the Federal legislature. Not “the states”.

    One more time: The Supreme Court ruling overturning Roe v. Wade doesn't just send the issue back to "the states." It also sends abortion to Congress to override the states if it chooses — either by codifying legal abortion nationwide or by restricting or banning it nationwide.
    https://x.com/sahilkapur/status/1853854255238586518

    Does it?

    Doesn't the Tenth Amendment mean its sent back to the states and not federal government if there's no federal grounds for legislation?

    Federal national laws typically happen under the terms of interstate commerce but not sure that works for abortion.
    There’s a long history of stretching interstate commerce to cover everything.

    A major concern is the various attempts, in anti-abortion states, to use lawfare against abortion in *other* states. In the past, such attempts at extending state power have been slapped down - many are worried what this court will do.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,939
    Fishing said:

    Jonathan said:

    Nigelb said:

    PB feels seen.

    The most expert pollsters are telling us this morning that it's a toss-up.

    If you had not wasted a single minute in the past year-plus reading or listening to any report on polls, you would be just as informed as you are today.

    https://x.com/JamesFallows/status/1853850325628928504

    Joe Biden to win?
    I hope not. I have a $5 bet with a friend in Seattle who I stayed with for 4th July that Trump will beat him.

    Not sure if it's still on or not.
    Depends if you do that Paddy Power substitute nonsense.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,035
    Foxy said:

    So, here we go, election night and a Harris landslide incoming:

    1. Her campaign has been flawless, focused on all the right positive stuff whilst resolutely ignoring culture war nonsense.
    2. Abortion, American women feel the GOP has overreached and they are angry.
    3. Trump fatigue has well and truly set in. The fiscal wing of the GOP wants him gone. The tremendous list of Republican endorsees of Harris says it all.
    4. Trump himself looks old, tired and his campaign has been very low energy. MAGA enthusiasm is nowhere near previous years.
    5. Trump never adapted to the change of opponent
    6. The economy has significantly buoyed over the last few months
    7. Democrats have united behind Harris, there has been no dissent (except Tlaib)
    8. The Reagan generation is dying out.
    9. Trump has bet the farm on demographics that don’t vote
    10. The Democrats have smashed the funding and GOTV ground games.
    11. Jan 6th

    I posted my map yesterday. If anything I think it may be conservative for Harris.

    My bets
    £20 Harris win at 11/8
    £20 Harris win PA at 11/10
    £3 Harris win IA at 10/1
    £3 Harris win AK at 30/1
    £2 Harris win KS at 100/1

    I don’t think the last three state bets will win but thought they were value (and I’ve been trying for years to net a 100/1 winner). 80/1 still my longest single win!

    I am hopeful for Kamala, and will be delighted if she flips FL or TX, but will stick by my Harris 308 prediction of last night.
    The problem I have with your prediction is, while I would like it to happen, and my book demands it, i don't actually believe it will happen. Yet.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,415

    Nigelb said:

    Yes, the Democrats missed emphasising an obvious rhetorical and factual point here.
    Dobbs sent the issue back to legislatures - which includes the Federal legislature. Not “the states”.

    One more time: The Supreme Court ruling overturning Roe v. Wade doesn't just send the issue back to "the states." It also sends abortion to Congress to override the states if it chooses — either by codifying legal abortion nationwide or by restricting or banning it nationwide.
    https://x.com/sahilkapur/status/1853854255238586518

    Does it?

    Doesn't the Tenth Amendment mean its sent back to the states and not federal government if there's no federal grounds for legislation?

    Federal national laws typically happen under the terms of interstate commerce but not sure that works for abortion.
    There’s a long history of stretching interstate commerce to cover everything.

    A major concern is the various attempts, in anti-abortion states, to use lawfare against abortion in *other* states. In the past, such attempts at extending state power have been slapped down - many are worried what this court will do.

    Nigelb said:

    Yes, the Democrats missed emphasising an obvious rhetorical and factual point here.
    Dobbs sent the issue back to legislatures - which includes the Federal legislature. Not “the states”.

    One more time: The Supreme Court ruling overturning Roe v. Wade doesn't just send the issue back to "the states." It also sends abortion to Congress to override the states if it chooses — either by codifying legal abortion nationwide or by restricting or banning it nationwide.
    https://x.com/sahilkapur/status/1853854255238586518

    Does it?

    Doesn't the Tenth Amendment mean its sent back to the states and not federal government if there's no federal grounds for legislation?

    Federal national laws typically happen under the terms of interstate commerce but not sure that works for abortion.
    There’s a long history of stretching interstate commerce to cover everything.

    A major concern is the various attempts, in anti-abortion states, to use lawfare against abortion in *other* states. In the past, such attempts at extending state power have been slapped down - many are worried what this court will do.
    The current SCOTUS would strike down any attempt to codify Roe v Wade.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,581
    ohnotnow said:

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    They are a reflection of a broken, inadequately funded system, nothing more.

    What have they got to do with the Department of Education or the Ministry of Justice?
    The inadequacy of the computer systems for the courts and Crown Office was on the front page of the Times today. As someone who was unable to take the evidence of a doctor yesterday because we could not get the link to work and wasted 45 minutes today with another remote witness I have absolutely no idea of what they are talking about.
    It’s the English civil courts but I am told that the new court building in Leeds has state of the art IT systems
    God help them
    Birmingham City Council helped project manage it 👍
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,035
    Fishing said:

    Jonathan said:

    Nigelb said:

    PB feels seen.

    The most expert pollsters are telling us this morning that it's a toss-up.

    If you had not wasted a single minute in the past year-plus reading or listening to any report on polls, you would be just as informed as you are today.

    https://x.com/JamesFallows/status/1853850325628928504

    Joe Biden to win?
    I hope not. I have a $5 bet with a friend in Seattle who I stayed with for 4th July that Trump will beat him.

    Not sure if it's still on or not.
    https://x.com/ArmandDoma/status/1853895012079280423
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,522
    edited November 5

    Nigelb said:

    Yes, the Democrats missed emphasising an obvious rhetorical and factual point here.
    Dobbs sent the issue back to legislatures - which includes the Federal legislature. Not “the states”.

    One more time: The Supreme Court ruling overturning Roe v. Wade doesn't just send the issue back to "the states." It also sends abortion to Congress to override the states if it chooses — either by codifying legal abortion nationwide or by restricting or banning it nationwide.
    https://x.com/sahilkapur/status/1853854255238586518

    Does it?

    Doesn't the Tenth Amendment mean its sent back to the states and not federal government if there's no federal grounds for legislation?

    Federal national laws typically happen under the terms of interstate commerce but not sure that works for abortion.
    There’s a long history of stretching interstate commerce to cover everything.

    A major concern is the various attempts, in anti-abortion states, to use lawfare against abortion in *other* states. In the past, such attempts at extending state power have been slapped down - many are worried what this court will do.
    Point is, that both the states and the federal government have jurisdiction - and nothing in Dobbs says it “returns to the states”.

    And the Supreme Court would get to decide where the future balance lies between the two jurisdictions, when the inevitable clashes occurred.
  • I have no bets on this or any insight either!

    Here is my forecast

    Harris 276 Trump 262

    Trump wins Arizona
    Harris wins Nevada
    Harris wins Michigan
    Harris wins Winsconsin
    Trump wins North Carolina
    Trump wins Georgia
    Harris wins Pennsylvania

    DYOR!

    Let's see.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,963
    Scott_xP said:

    Driver said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Harris favourite to win Nevada on Polymarket apparently

    I'm seeing Trump 54, Harris 47?
    https://x.com/faisalislam/status/1853896369083183141
    I must be looking at something different?


  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,722
    edited November 5
    Further Ralston update BUT it excludes yesterday and today's mail which should be good for Dem. By registration:

    Rep 37.2
    Dem 33.5
    Other 29.4

    Total vote 1,175k
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,854

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    They are a reflection of a broken, inadequately funded system, nothing more.

    What have they got to do with the Department of Education or the Ministry of Justice?
    The inadequacy of the computer systems for the courts and Crown Office was on the front page of the Times today. As someone who was unable to take the evidence of a doctor yesterday because we could not get the link to work and wasted 45 minutes today with another remote witness I have absolutely no idea of what they are talking about.
    It’s the English civil courts but I am told that the new court building in Leeds has state of the art IT systems
    The IT systems may be great but my wife is 7 days into jury duty there and has been in court for about 1 hour. Took them 23 seconds to decide the guy did it.
    Last time I did jury duty it took them almost an hour to get the Special Dee-Vee-Dee player wheeled into court to show us some CCTV evidence on a teeny tiny little TV that looked like the one I had in my bedroom in the 1980s. Then the Dee-Vee-Dee wouldn't play, so we were sent away for a long lunch. Then came back. Then sent home.

    Rinse and repeat over a few days.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,035
    Driver said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Driver said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Harris favourite to win Nevada on Polymarket apparently

    I'm seeing Trump 54, Harris 47?
    https://x.com/faisalislam/status/1853896369083183141
    I must be looking at something different?
    No, just the timeframe. Harris was briefly ahead. Market manipulation it would seem
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,576
    Sean_F said:

    Nigelb said:

    Yes, the Democrats missed emphasising an obvious rhetorical and factual point here.
    Dobbs sent the issue back to legislatures - which includes the Federal legislature. Not “the states”.

    One more time: The Supreme Court ruling overturning Roe v. Wade doesn't just send the issue back to "the states." It also sends abortion to Congress to override the states if it chooses — either by codifying legal abortion nationwide or by restricting or banning it nationwide.
    https://x.com/sahilkapur/status/1853854255238586518

    Does it?

    Doesn't the Tenth Amendment mean its sent back to the states and not federal government if there's no federal grounds for legislation?

    Federal national laws typically happen under the terms of interstate commerce but not sure that works for abortion.
    There’s a long history of stretching interstate commerce to cover everything.

    A major concern is the various attempts, in anti-abortion states, to use lawfare against abortion in *other* states. In the past, such attempts at extending state power have been slapped down - many are worried what this court will do.

    Nigelb said:

    Yes, the Democrats missed emphasising an obvious rhetorical and factual point here.
    Dobbs sent the issue back to legislatures - which includes the Federal legislature. Not “the states”.

    One more time: The Supreme Court ruling overturning Roe v. Wade doesn't just send the issue back to "the states." It also sends abortion to Congress to override the states if it chooses — either by codifying legal abortion nationwide or by restricting or banning it nationwide.
    https://x.com/sahilkapur/status/1853854255238586518

    Does it?

    Doesn't the Tenth Amendment mean its sent back to the states and not federal government if there's no federal grounds for legislation?

    Federal national laws typically happen under the terms of interstate commerce but not sure that works for abortion.
    There’s a long history of stretching interstate commerce to cover everything.

    A major concern is the various attempts, in anti-abortion states, to use lawfare against abortion in *other* states. In the past, such attempts at extending state power have been slapped down - many are worried what this court will do.
    The current SCOTUS would strike down any attempt to codify Roe v Wade.
    That’s not the problem.

    What will they *allow*?

    https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/next-abortion-battlefront-opens-between-states-with-clashing-laws

  • Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Yes, the Democrats missed emphasising an obvious rhetorical and factual point here.
    Dobbs sent the issue back to legislatures - which includes the Federal legislature. Not “the states”.

    One more time: The Supreme Court ruling overturning Roe v. Wade doesn't just send the issue back to "the states." It also sends abortion to Congress to override the states if it chooses — either by codifying legal abortion nationwide or by restricting or banning it nationwide.
    https://x.com/sahilkapur/status/1853854255238586518

    Does it?

    Doesn't the Tenth Amendment mean its sent back to the states and not federal government if there's no federal grounds for legislation?

    Federal national laws typically happen under the terms of interstate commerce but not sure that works for abortion.
    There’s a long history of stretching interstate commerce to cover everything.

    A major concern is the various attempts, in anti-abortion states, to use lawfare against abortion in *other* states. In the past, such attempts at extending state power have been slapped down - many are worried what this court will do.
    Point is, that both the states and the federal government have jurisdiction - and nothing in Dobbs says it “returns to the states”.

    And the Supreme Court would get to decide where the future balance lies between the two jurisdictions, when the inevitable clashes occurred.
    The tenth says that the states have jurisdiction. If the federal government tried to codify nationwide abortion, then the current SCOTUS would undoubtedly strike it down.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,755
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Yes, the Democrats missed emphasising an obvious rhetorical and factual point here.
    Dobbs sent the issue back to legislatures - which includes the Federal legislature. Not “the states”.

    One more time: The Supreme Court ruling overturning Roe v. Wade doesn't just send the issue back to "the states." It also sends abortion to Congress to override the states if it chooses — either by codifying legal abortion nationwide or by restricting or banning it nationwide.
    https://x.com/sahilkapur/status/1853854255238586518

    Does it?

    Doesn't the Tenth Amendment mean its sent back to the states and not federal government if there's no federal grounds for legislation?

    Federal national laws typically happen under the terms of interstate commerce but not sure that works for abortion.
    There’s a long history of stretching interstate commerce to cover everything.

    A major concern is the various attempts, in anti-abortion states, to use lawfare against abortion in *other* states. In the past, such attempts at extending state power have been slapped down - many are worried what this court will do.
    Point is, that both the states and the federal government have jurisdiction - and nothing in Dobbs says it “returns to the states”.

    And the Supreme Court would get to decide where the future balance lies between the two jurisdictions, when the inevitable clashes occurred.
    Quite weird seeing the US abortion debate from the outside. Abortion banned even for rape and incest is proper wrongun rule making. Abortion legal right up until full term is even worse.

    Law making of complex moral issues best follows regular democratic oversight and the principle of subsidiarity. Bans or legalisation of such issues through centralised constitutional courts is far less desirable.

    It’s odd that these are controversial views in the US.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 3,018
    We tend to forget President William Howard Taft, because he came between two much more famous ones, Teddy Roosevelt and Woodrow Wilson. But he once got off a pretty good line. He was giving a speech to a crowd, when a man in the crowd threw a head of cabbage at him.

    The man missed, which was not easy because Taft was a big man.

    Taft looked at the head of cabbage for a bit, turned to the crowd, and said: “Ladies and gentlemen, I see one of my opponents has lost his head.”

    I like the story for two reasons; it’s funny — and it probably changed the situation from “let’s fight” to “let’s laugh”, which we should do at least nine times out of ten, if we can.

    (I found that story in Bob Dole’s "Great Political Wit".)
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,035
    @DylanByers
    Nevada’s secretary of state, seeing high number of rejected ballots in Clark and Washoe, says one of the biggest issues is that the signatures of younger voters don’t always match what’s on their driver’s licenses:

    “It’s mostly the fact that young people don’t have signatures these days. And when they did register to vote through the automatic voter registration process, they signed a digital pad at D.M.V., and that became their license signature.”

    https://x.com/DylanByers/status/1853894380299681864
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,478
    edited November 5
    Scott_xP said:

    @DylanByers
    Nevada’s secretary of state, seeing high number of rejected ballots in Clark and Washoe, says one of the biggest issues is that the signatures of younger voters don’t always match what’s on their driver’s licenses:

    “It’s mostly the fact that young people don’t have signatures these days. And when they did register to vote through the automatic voter registration process, they signed a digital pad at D.M.V., and that became their license signature.”

    https://x.com/DylanByers/status/1853894380299681864

    I would be screwed if we had this procedure as my "signature" is different every single time
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,618
    Scott_xP said:

    @DylanByers
    Nevada’s secretary of state, seeing high number of rejected ballots in Clark and Washoe, says one of the biggest issues is that the signatures of younger voters don’t always match what’s on their driver’s licenses:

    “It’s mostly the fact that young people don’t have signatures these days. And when they did register to vote through the automatic voter registration process, they signed a digital pad at D.M.V., and that became their license signature.”

    https://x.com/DylanByers/status/1853894380299681864

    Why do they have to sign to vote?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,969

    Scott_xP said:

    @DylanByers
    Nevada’s secretary of state, seeing high number of rejected ballots in Clark and Washoe, says one of the biggest issues is that the signatures of younger voters don’t always match what’s on their driver’s licenses:

    “It’s mostly the fact that young people don’t have signatures these days. And when they did register to vote through the automatic voter registration process, they signed a digital pad at D.M.V., and that became their license signature.”

    https://x.com/DylanByers/status/1853894380299681864

    Why do they have to sign to vote?
    Postal ballots?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,035

    Scott_xP said:

    @DylanByers
    Nevada’s secretary of state, seeing high number of rejected ballots in Clark and Washoe, says one of the biggest issues is that the signatures of younger voters don’t always match what’s on their driver’s licenses:

    “It’s mostly the fact that young people don’t have signatures these days. And when they did register to vote through the automatic voter registration process, they signed a digital pad at D.M.V., and that became their license signature.”

    https://x.com/DylanByers/status/1853894380299681864

    Why do they have to sign to vote?
    To prevent fraud
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,565
    Were you up for the @Andy_JS exit poll?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,618
    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @DylanByers
    Nevada’s secretary of state, seeing high number of rejected ballots in Clark and Washoe, says one of the biggest issues is that the signatures of younger voters don’t always match what’s on their driver’s licenses:

    “It’s mostly the fact that young people don’t have signatures these days. And when they did register to vote through the automatic voter registration process, they signed a digital pad at D.M.V., and that became their license signature.”

    https://x.com/DylanByers/status/1853894380299681864

    Why do they have to sign to vote?
    Postal ballots?
    Aren’t these in-person votes?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,479

    We tend to forget President William Howard Taft, because he came between two much more famous ones, Teddy Roosevelt and Woodrow Wilson. But he once got off a pretty good line. He was giving a speech to a crowd, when a man in the crowd threw a head of cabbage at him.

    The man missed, which was not easy because Taft was a big man.

    Taft looked at the head of cabbage for a bit, turned to the crowd, and said: “Ladies and gentlemen, I see one of my opponents has lost his head.”

    I like the story for two reasons; it’s funny — and it probably changed the situation from “let’s fight” to “let’s laugh”, which we should do at least nine times out of ten, if we can.

    (I found that story in Bob Dole’s "Great Political Wit".)

    Liz Truss lost to her head!
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    Scott_xP said:

    @DylanByers
    Nevada’s secretary of state, seeing high number of rejected ballots in Clark and Washoe, says one of the biggest issues is that the signatures of younger voters don’t always match what’s on their driver’s licenses:

    “It’s mostly the fact that young people don’t have signatures these days. And when they did register to vote through the automatic voter registration process, they signed a digital pad at D.M.V., and that became their license signature.”

    https://x.com/DylanByers/status/1853894380299681864

    Do they get a second chance?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,565
    I should do my own research.

    The trouble is, I can't be arsed.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,170

    Scott_xP said:

    @DylanByers
    Nevada’s secretary of state, seeing high number of rejected ballots in Clark and Washoe, says one of the biggest issues is that the signatures of younger voters don’t always match what’s on their driver’s licenses:

    “It’s mostly the fact that young people don’t have signatures these days. And when they did register to vote through the automatic voter registration process, they signed a digital pad at D.M.V., and that became their license signature.”

    https://x.com/DylanByers/status/1853894380299681864

    I would be screwed if we had this procedure as my "signature" is different every single time
    We do… Postal votes… Gulp.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,755

    I should do my own research.

    The trouble is, I can't be arsed.

    Wait for North Carolina and Georgia and pile in. Ignore the rest.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,969

    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @DylanByers
    Nevada’s secretary of state, seeing high number of rejected ballots in Clark and Washoe, says one of the biggest issues is that the signatures of younger voters don’t always match what’s on their driver’s licenses:

    “It’s mostly the fact that young people don’t have signatures these days. And when they did register to vote through the automatic voter registration process, they signed a digital pad at D.M.V., and that became their license signature.”

    https://x.com/DylanByers/status/1853894380299681864

    Why do they have to sign to vote?
    Postal ballots?
    Aren’t these in-person votes?
    I think the tweet is referring to the validation of postal ballots.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,291
    edited November 5
    CNN.....BRREREAKKKKINNNNNG NEEWSSSSS......First Exit Polls in 60 mins.....

    I can't wait to find out how one legged Indian second generation immigrants who work in Agriculture think about tariff policy....
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,035

    I should do my own research.

    The trouble is, I can't be arsed.

    Stealing someone else's spreadsheet is research.
    It's also a PB tradition

    On which note, I hope OGH is enjoying this as much as we are
  • Scott_xP said:

    @DylanByers
    Nevada’s secretary of state, seeing high number of rejected ballots in Clark and Washoe, says one of the biggest issues is that the signatures of younger voters don’t always match what’s on their driver’s licenses:

    “It’s mostly the fact that young people don’t have signatures these days. And when they did register to vote through the automatic voter registration process, they signed a digital pad at D.M.V., and that became their license signature.”

    https://x.com/DylanByers/status/1853894380299681864

    I would be screwed if we had this procedure as my "signature" is different every single time
    Postal ballots have signature verification here.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,618
    biggles said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @DylanByers
    Nevada’s secretary of state, seeing high number of rejected ballots in Clark and Washoe, says one of the biggest issues is that the signatures of younger voters don’t always match what’s on their driver’s licenses:

    “It’s mostly the fact that young people don’t have signatures these days. And when they did register to vote through the automatic voter registration process, they signed a digital pad at D.M.V., and that became their license signature.”

    https://x.com/DylanByers/status/1853894380299681864

    I would be screwed if we had this procedure as my "signature" is different every single time
    We do… Postal votes… Gulp.
    Does anyone really sign anything anymore? Never actually thought about it now. But, yeah, it’s kinda antiquated when you think about it.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,478
    edited November 5

    Scott_xP said:

    @DylanByers
    Nevada’s secretary of state, seeing high number of rejected ballots in Clark and Washoe, says one of the biggest issues is that the signatures of younger voters don’t always match what’s on their driver’s licenses:

    “It’s mostly the fact that young people don’t have signatures these days. And when they did register to vote through the automatic voter registration process, they signed a digital pad at D.M.V., and that became their license signature.”

    https://x.com/DylanByers/status/1853894380299681864

    I would be screwed if we had this procedure as my "signature" is different every single time
    Postal ballots have signature verification here.
    Good job I don't use postal ballots then. However, I bet we are less strict
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,565
    I may try and get 2 hours kip and come back at 11pm
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,969

    CNN.....BRREREAKKKKINNNNNG NEEWSSSSS......First Exit Polls in 60 mins.....

    I can't wait to find out how one legged Indian second generation immigrants who work in Agriculture think about tariff policy....

    This is the part of the exit poll where they tell us who voted, but not how they voted?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,505

    biggles said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @DylanByers
    Nevada’s secretary of state, seeing high number of rejected ballots in Clark and Washoe, says one of the biggest issues is that the signatures of younger voters don’t always match what’s on their driver’s licenses:

    “It’s mostly the fact that young people don’t have signatures these days. And when they did register to vote through the automatic voter registration process, they signed a digital pad at D.M.V., and that became their license signature.”

    https://x.com/DylanByers/status/1853894380299681864

    I would be screwed if we had this procedure as my "signature" is different every single time
    We do… Postal votes… Gulp.
    Does anyone really sign anything anymore? Never actually thought about it now. But, yeah, it’s kinda antiquated when you think about it.
    You could always slip the teller ten bucks to let you vote. Oh wait, you don't carry cash.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,849
    Doesn’t Nevada have that weird system where you can go back the day after election day to correct your ballot if there’s an issue?
This discussion has been closed.